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JBDuke
11-18-2012, 10:04 PM
Put your post-game thoughts here.

licc85
11-18-2012, 10:09 PM
Great game by everyone!

Mason was a beast, he's somehow automatic from the free throw line now, let's hope that continues

Rasheed looked great, hitting jumpers and being aggressive getting to the foul line. He's leading the team in FG attempts through 3 games, and I believe he will be our 2nd leading scorer behind Mason.

Seth came back down to earth after a stellar UK game, and settled for too many jumpers, but his leg may have been bothering him. Would like to see him be a bit more aggressive and attack the paint more.

Quinn had 9 assists . . . he was absolutely awesome. Had a couple of turnovers that could have been avoided but I like the way he's looking for his teammates, and he will only get better. Hopefully that wrist is fine.

Ryan continues his cold shooting start (below 30% from 3 including this game), but I'm not too worried, he'll get hot at some point.

blueduke59
11-18-2012, 10:12 PM
With 5 minutes left in a blowout and there were still 4 starters on the floor (Seth included). Kinda hard to develop a bench when they can't get any burn

Dukeblue91
11-18-2012, 10:13 PM
Slow start but then the 3's started falling and we started looking good.
I first want to say that I was glad to finally see Alex although pretty limited.
Mason looked just awesome on both sides of the ball.
Rasheed is going to be our next super star no questions.
Cook looked good too.
Seth, good that we did not really need him much tonight.
Overal a good game by Duke.

Saratoga2
11-18-2012, 10:14 PM
It will be good to hear from those who attended the game. Lots of good things happened but we started slowly and missed a lot of 3 point shots and had a fair number of turnovers. My questions:
1. Were our 3 points shots contested enough to put us at approx 30%?
2. Were we unable to defend their 3 point shooters? Were they bigger and shooting over our guards?
3. What is going on with the slow starts?

Congratulations to Mason for a strong game.

uh_no
11-18-2012, 10:15 PM
It will be good to hear from those who attended the game. Lots of good things happened but we started slowly and missed a lot of 3 point shots and had a fair number of turnovers. My questions:
1. Were our 3 points shots contested enough to put us at approx 30%?
2. Were we unable to defend their 3 point shooters? Were they bigger and shooting over our guards?
3. What is going on with the slow starts?

Congratulations to Mason for a strong game.

I think mason may be the NCAA pump-faking champion by year's end. He destroyed UK guys with it, and did it again today.

superdave
11-18-2012, 10:16 PM
Solid defense. I'm encouraged. Mason played well without fouling. Cook and Sulaimon were all over the place tonight.

Here's hoping we get to see these guys play and win three games in three days.

throatybeard
11-18-2012, 10:16 PM
I just found out this school was founded in 1991 and is somewhere among Fort Myers. Thank you, Wiki.

ChillinDuke
11-18-2012, 10:20 PM
Nice game all around.

Murph got some burn, thankfully. Looked OK.

Seth, Quinn, Rasheed, The Resident Irishman (Ryan), and Mase all looked good. In that particular order. Maybe flip Rasheed and The Resident, depending on your view.

Can someone please explain to me what this talk is about Seth not warming up? Is that even possible? How does someone not warm up yet still play?

- Chillin

chaosmage
11-18-2012, 10:27 PM
Apparently, because of his leg issues, he's warming up on his own, but not doing layup drills, shooting drills, etc. with the team. That's my impression.

Thoughts/Confirmation?

Cameron
11-18-2012, 11:05 PM
Great game by everyone!

Mason was a beast, he's somehow automatic from the free throw line now, let's hope that continues

Rasheed looked great, hitting jumpers and being aggressive getting to the foul line. He's leading the team in FG attempts through 3 games, and I believe he will be our 2nd leading scorer behind Mason.

Seth came back down to earth after a stellar UK game, and settled for too many jumpers, but his leg may have been bothering him. Would like to see him be a bit more aggressive and attack the paint more.

Quinn had 9 assists . . . he was absolutely awesome. Had a couple of turnovers that could have been avoided but I like the way he's looking for his teammates, and he will only get better. Hopefully that wrist is fine.

Ryan continues his cold shooting start (below 30% from 3 including this game), but I'm not too worried, he'll get hot at some point.

The more I think about it, the more I think you are probably right re Rasheed finishing in the top three in scoring on this team at the end of the year. He will at least seriously contend for a spot there. As I pointed out in the in-game thread and as you allude to here, Rasheed gave an interview heading into the season that, in effect, explained that the coaching staff wants him to be aggressive and put points on the board, and to not defer to the upperclassmen. The fact that he has shot 15 threes and 26 jumpers overall in the last two games against UK and Gulf Coast really drives that point home. The coaches knew Rasheed was a big time offensive talent in high school and an excellent long-range shooter, so it should be no surprise that they have given him the blinding green light to bomb away. Thus far, it's paying big dividends, and, as you point out, Rasheed's confidence and feel for the game is only going to progress as the season marches on.

Quinn once again took our offense to another level when at the wheel of the team. He's wired for speed, and that energy is absolutely contagious. There were moments tonight and against Kentucky that really make me think that this team might be at its best when playing as hurriedly as possible. We have the shooters, athleticism on the wing, a center that excels on the run and a point guard built for making decisions on the fly. Quinn is far from a finished product, but if he is great at anything right now, it's his ability to find teammates in the frenzy of the open court. He almost seems more calm and in control in the center of chaos than he does in the traditional half court. And he has improved dramatically as a three-point shooter. Quinn is shooting 50% from three (5-of-10) through three contests. His release is lightning quick and range seems to now be anywhere 22 feet and in. Two of Quinn's triples tonight were from at least two feet beyond the arc.

Anybody who thought we were going to struggle shooting the basketball, fear not. We have a legitimate four guys who can absolutely fill it from deep in Seth, Rasheed, Quinn and Ryan (although he's been struggling early, he'll relocate the range), and a fifth in Thornton, who is a bit of wildcard but can get hot in spurts and provides great spot shooting off the bench.

The 30-0 run was a thing of beauty tonight. Really excited about this team.

ChicagoCrazy84
11-19-2012, 12:22 AM
It will be good to hear from those who attended the game. Lots of good things happened but we started slowly and missed a lot of 3 point shots and had a fair number of turnovers. My questions:
1. Were our 3 points shots contested enough to put us at approx 30%?
2. Were we unable to defend their 3 point shooters? Were they bigger and shooting over our guards?
3. What is going on with the slow starts?

Congratulations to Mason for a strong game.

I wasn't at the game, but I watched the whole thing. As far as the start, we weren't playing too poorly, I think they just came out hitting and we weren't. Sure they had a few good looks but what is a good look without plain knocking them down? Bernard Thompson was on fire pretty much all game, he's a solid player. I was pretty happy with our game, we got to the lane, hit a good amount in and around the paint, mostly thanks to Mason. I personally don't think that the 3 point shot will be our main strength this year. Seth is solid, Sheed will probably be around 40% this year, and Ryan can hit but he's inconsistent. I think were a better mid range team and paint scoring team. It's not a bad thing, but I just don't personally think we're loaded this year with 3 point shooters, especially off the bench. It was a solid game though, Im excited for the Ohio St game.

Olympic Fan
11-19-2012, 01:50 AM
It's a funny thing -- they played nothing like they did when they beat Miami. In that game, Florida GC was awful from 3-point range (1-of-11) and dominant in the paint (they outscored Miami 40-14 inside). They hung with Duke with some torrid 3-point shooting and an aggressive defense. They played a bit of zone, but mosly a sagging man-to-man that took away the inside game, but gave us open 3s. We were cold early, but Quinn finally kick-started things with back-to-back 3s, then Ryan, who was sleepwalking to that point, woke up and was dominant during the 30-0 stretch to end the first half and start the second. Once the 3s starting falling, the inside opened up just enough for Mason to tear them up.

Great to see Quinn in the starting lineup. He was a great floor leader with nine assists and his defensive pressure had a lot to do with their 25 turnovers.

It was a funny game in one way -- despite the fast tempo, neither team could convert in transition. Officially, neither team scored a fastbreak basket -- although both had plenty of chances.

juise
11-19-2012, 02:15 AM
With 5 minutes left in a blowout and there were still 4 starters on the floor (Seth included). Kinda hard to develop a bench when they can't get any burn

There was one healthy scholarship player who didn't get double digit minutes (Alex). He plays SF and up to now, really hasn't shown the ball handling to play at guard or the interior defense to play in the post. So the question is whether Amile or Rasheed should sit so he can get more minutes? Or move Amile to the post and sit Josh? From what I saw on the court, the distribution of minutes was good. Remember that it isn't just players that need to develop. Teams also need time to develop and that requires the starters to be on the floor.

licc85
11-19-2012, 06:02 AM
The more I think about it, the more I think you are probably right re Rasheed finishing in the top three in scoring on this team at the end of the year. He will at least seriously contend for a spot there. As I pointed out in the in-game thread and as you allude to here, Rasheed gave an interview heading into the season that, in effect, explained that the coaching staff wants him to be aggressive and put points on the board, and to not defer to the upperclassmen. The fact that he has shot 15 threes and 26 jumpers overall in the last two games against UK and Gulf Coast really drives that point home. The coaches knew Rasheed was a big time offensive talent in high school and an excellent long-range shooter, so it should be no surprise that they have given him the blinding green light to bomb away. Thus far, it's paying big dividends, and, as you point out, Rasheed's confidence and feel for the game is only going to progress as the season marches on.

Quinn once again took our offense to another level when at the wheel of the team. He's wired for speed, and that energy is absolutely contagious. There were moments tonight and against Kentucky that really make me think that this team might be at its best when playing as hurriedly as possible. We have the shooters, athleticism on the wing, a center that excels on the run and a point guard built for making decisions on the fly. Quinn is far from a finished product, but if he is great at anything right now, it's his ability to find teammates in the frenzy of the open court. He almost seems more calm and in control in the center of chaos than he does in the traditional half court. And he has improved dramatically as a three-point shooter. Quinn is shooting 50% from three (5-of-10) through three contests. His release is lightning quick and range seems to now be anywhere 22 feet and in. Two of Quinn's triples tonight were from at least two feet beyond the arc.

Anybody who thought we were going to struggle shooting the basketball, fear not. We have a legitimate four guys who can absolutely fill it from deep in Seth, Rasheed, Quinn and Ryan (although he's been struggling early, he'll relocate the range), and a fifth in Thornton, who is a bit of wildcard but can get hot in spurts and provides great spot shooting off the bench.

The 30-0 run was a thing of beauty tonight. Really excited about this team.

Great analysis man.

I went back to watched some of the game and I'm super excited about what we have in this team. I'm not worried at all about our slow starts. All of our early shots were good, high percentage looks that we just didn't hit. That's nothing to sweat over, because this team is legit.

I think Mason's always been this good, he's just never had a guy like Quinn over his entire career with the exception of 11 games with Kyrie Irving. Now that he's getting the ball consistently, he doesn't have to worry about a few bad plays here and there because he knows he will have more chances, and it's REALLY helped his confidence. He's just dominating out there.

Quinn consistently looked for Mason and I like what we have with that pair of guys. We need to develop some sort of pick and roll game with Quinn and our 2 big guys, it would be devastatingly effective with Quinn's great decision making, Mason's beastliness inside, and Ryan's Euro-game. Honestly, If Quinn was this good last year, then last year's team might have had a chance to be even better than this current team. We had Miles last year, and he was basically a stronger but less skilled Mason, and just as deadly a finisher at the rim. Plus, with Austin as a more dynamic but perhaps less savvy version of what we have in Sulaimon this year, last year's team could REALLY benefitted from a true point guard.

Speaking of Sulaimon, he looks like a vet out there shooting with confidence, getting to the free throw line, and diving on the floor for balls. I like the energy and swagger he brings to this team.

Ryan was only 1-5 from three but he actually played pretty great. He's been pretty active on both sides and is making nice hustle plays all over the place.

Seth has a noticeably improved handle from last year. I see him get in to trouble while dribbling now and still keep the ball away from his defender with his dribble. He's been doing a much better job taking care of the ball than in the past.

Amile needs to pass Josh Hairston on the depth chart, he's much more active when he's in the game, trying to make plays for his teammates, and just having a good nose for the ball. He's probably our 8th man right now and he's pretty solid.

With all that, I think I can safely say this team is definitively better than last year's. All of our returning guys got better, Austin and his insatiable demand for touches is now gone, and with the huge addition of Rasheed, and solid bench contributions from Tyler and Amile, and even without Alex and Marshall really getting in the mix yet, this Duke team a dangerous collection of high quality players with skill at every position. The whole key is still Quinn Cook. If he can keep this level of play up and Mason plays like a legit All-American, I could see us being #1 at some point this season and easily grabbing a #1 seed. Very very exciting.

moonpie23
11-19-2012, 07:54 AM
was there any followup to quinn getting his wrist smacked? he looked like it hurt a lot.......

Matches
11-19-2012, 08:16 AM
The 30-0 run was just surreal. Loved Ryan's effort in particular during that stretch.

Overall lots of positives. Still plenty of room for improvement but that's natural this early in the season.

roywhite
11-19-2012, 08:25 AM
Mason through 3 games
24-31 FG 77.4%
17-22 FT 77.3%
delightful

Ryan through 3 games
40.7% FG
53.8% FT
27.3% 3-pt
small sample, but a bit puzzling

devildeac
11-19-2012, 08:40 AM
was there any followup to quinn getting his wrist smacked? he looked like it hurt a lot.......

He re-entered the game a few minutes later with no brace/wrap and looked comfortable.

DukieInBrasil
11-19-2012, 09:22 AM
Seth has a noticeably improved handle from last year. I see him get in to trouble while dribbling now and still keep the ball away from his defender with his dribble. He's been doing a much better job taking care of the ball than in the past.

Amile needs to pass Josh Hairston on the depth chart, he's much more active when he's in the game, trying to make plays for his teammates, and just having a good nose for the ball. He's probably our 8th man right now and he's pretty solid.

With all that, I think I can safely say this team is definitively better than last year's. All of our returning guys got better, Austin and his insatiable demand for touches is now gone, and with the huge addition of Rasheed, and solid bench contributions from Tyler and Amile, and even without Alex and Marshall really getting in the mix yet, this Duke team a dangerous collection of high quality players with skill at every position. The whole key is still Quinn Cook. If he can keep this level of play up and Mason plays like a legit All-American, I could see us being #1 at some point this season and easily grabbing a #1 seed. Very very exciting.

I agree with you on this, but #1 at any point in the season takes a distant back seat to being #1 at the END of the season, which this team could possibly do.
I like Rasheed much more than Austin, and think that he may end up scoring more than Austin did last year. As you mentioned, Mason is a beast this year and i think that has a lot to do with Quinn Cook really getting him the ball whereas Austin refused to or just couldn't get him the ball in good spots. However, I'm not a particularly big fan of Rasheed getting more shots than Mason, which he has done in 2 of 3 games. Mason's efficiency has been spectacular (77.3%), while Rasheed's has been close to abysmal (32.4%), well, if you add their percentages together they're making ~100% of their shots!!!! ;-) Rasheed has done lots of good things so far, but his shot selection needs to improve a lot.
Ryan's shooting woes are quite mysterious, although he's still playing a solid all-around game.
Quinn deserves some serious props. He started the game, and rewarded his coach and his team, by playing one of his best games at Duke.
In fact, our youngsters showed quite a bit of promise, Rasheed, Amile, Quinn all did good things. Only Alex didn't really show much, although he grabbed 2 boards and tripled his number of minutes from the last time out. Once Marshall starts playing again, we will get to see that we have a deep squad of young'uns to really build around.
In fact, the balance on this team between talented youth and quality experience is something to really be excited about.

On to our first tournament championship opportunity, which i know K really values as an opportunity to build that mentality that will be so necessary later in the year. We will potentially have a pretty stiff gauntlet of teams to test us, but i believe we have all the tools to win it. Commanding interior presence: check. Versatility at the PF, SF and SG positions: check. Quality distributor at the PG: check. Quality depth to turn to in case of foul trouble or otherwise inexplicable lack of productivity from a starter at any position: check. The only thing we haven't shown yet is Marshall, who will provide cover in the post for Mason and Ryan. However, as he showed vs UK, Josh can provide that at a level that we (the royal "we", meaning I) haven't seen much of before. Neither Josh nor TT had very noteworthy games vs FGCU, but then again, neither was really called on to situationally save our skin, which they both did in the much higher stakes situation vs UK.

I'm not worried about Alex, we have won without him doing much of anything, and he will continue to improve in practice and in whatever minutes he gets on the court. If he ends up playing very little this year, stays at Duke and contributes further down the road: great. If he ends up playing very little and transfers mid-season or at the end of the year: best of luck to him wherever he ends up. If the light turns on for him at some point this year and plays like the player K has spoken of in the press: even fantastic-er. He's still just a kid, and any comparisons of him to other former Duke legends are unnecessary and unhelpful to us as fans, but also to him as a player. As some former rock legend said (paraphrasing): the kid is alright.

75Crazie
11-19-2012, 09:31 AM
Mason played well without fouling.
To pick a nit, he did commit at least one (un-called) foul, as the photo on the N&O web page will attest. But otherwise, agreed ... it's really good to see him have such a stellar game without getting into foul trouble.

Billy Dat
11-19-2012, 09:36 AM
It's a funny thing -- they played nothing like they did when they beat Miami. In that game, Florida GC was awful from 3-point range (1-of-11) and dominant in the paint (they outscored Miami 40-14 inside). They hung with Duke with some torrid 3-point shooting and an aggressive defense. They played a bit of zone, but mosly a sagging man-to-man that took away the inside game, but gave us open 3s. We were cold early..

This is very accurate, and K said in the post-game that Duke's plan was to force tempo but FGCU surprised Duke and came out fast and we didn't respond well - as K said, "we were kind of all over the place". The first 10 minutes were even.


Quinn once again took our offense to another level when at the wheel of the team. He's wired for speed, and that energy is absolutely contagious. There were moments tonight and against Kentucky that really make me think that this team might be at its best when playing as hurriedly as possible. We have the shooters, athleticism on the wing, a center that excels on the run and a point guard built for making decisions on the fly. Quinn is far from a finished product, but if he is great at anything right now, it's his ability to find teammates in the frenzy of the open court. He almost seems more calm and in control in the center of chaos than he does in the traditional half court. And he has improved dramatically as a three-point shooter. Quinn is shooting 50% from three (5-of-10) through three contests. His release is lightning quick and range seems to now be anywhere 22 feet and in. Two of Quinn's triples tonight were from at least two feet beyond the arc.

licc85 quoted Cameron and I thought it was worth re-quoting because I think he really nailed this point. Quinn was a revelation tonight, and I felt like the "controlled chaos" style he brought off the bench against UK got us going and, tonight, it was just nice to see him play so many minutes (29) and play so well. I feel like that had to be a career high in minutes for him. Some of his turnovers were bad,. but tonight felt like the coaches were ready to let him make some mistakes and not give him the quick hook. It makes me think he must really be bringing the effort in practice. Our ceiling is higher than I thought if he can keep playing like this.


I think Mason's always been this good, he's just never had a guy like Quinn over his entire career with the exception of 11 games with Kyrie Irving. Now that he's getting the ball consistently, he doesn't have to worry about a few bad plays here and there because he knows he will have more chances, and it's REALLY helped his confidence. He's just dominating out there.


I think mason may be the NCAA pump-faking champion by year's end. He destroyed UK guys with it, and did it again today.

I put these two quotes back to back because I think uh_no's point is one that slightly modifies licc85s point. Mason's always had tons of talent, but he hasn't had the controlled, nuanced, non-traveling offensive chops that we're seeing this year. He was dominant in this game and seems to be taking the leadership burden/responsibility to heart.


Ryan, who was sleepwalking to that point, woke up and was dominant during the 30-0 stretch to end the first half and start the second.

He WAS sleepwalking and K yanked him early and had some words for him as he left, not a blow by comment, but a "stop here son and let me tell you something". When he came back, we finally saw the complete Ryan Kelly, on offense and defense, that we've been hoping for.


The coaches knew Rasheed was a big time offensive talent in high school and an excellent long-range shooter, so it should be no surprise that they have given him the blinding green light to bomb away. Thus far, it's paying big dividends, and, as you point out, Rasheed's confidence and feel for the game is only going to progress as the season marches on.

Co-sign this in a big way. He played the second most minutes on the team by a fair margin, the only other player aside from Mason who played more than 30. He looks like a veteran and is delivering on both sides of the ball.


With 5 minutes left in a blowout and there were still 4 starters on the floor (Seth included). Kinda hard to develop a bench when they can't get any burn

There was one healthy scholarship player who didn't get double digit minutes (Alex). He plays SF and up to now, really hasn't shown the ball handling to play at guard or the interior defense to play in the post. So the question is whether Amile or Rasheed should sit so he can get more minutes? Or move Amile to the post and sit Josh? From what I saw on the court, the distribution of minutes was good. Remember that it isn't just players that need to develop. Teams also need time to develop and that requires the starters to be on the floor.

Murphy is not ahead of Hairston and Jefferson or Rasheed, why should one of them sit when they are the ones earning the PT? The Alex campaign is getting a little nutty. It's not like Todd Z is playing instead of him. He can't see the court because he's not good enough to be out there yet. It's early, but he's getting chances in practice like everyone else and he obviously isn't making it happen. The bench got 25% of the minutes tonight...that's not so bad.

jimsumner
11-19-2012, 10:04 AM
was there any followup to quinn getting his wrist smacked? he looked like it hurt a lot.......

Quinn said he was fine after the game. The wrist was not on ice and he showed no signs of discomfort.

jimsumner
11-19-2012, 10:06 AM
To pick a nit, he did commit at least one (un-called) foul, as the photo on the N&O web page will attest. But otherwise, agreed ... it's really good to see him have such a stellar game without getting into foul trouble.

According to my scoresheet, he didn't commit a foul.

To pick a nit. :)

dukeballboy88
11-19-2012, 10:24 AM
I think this team can go as far as Quinn takes them. If Quinn continues to get better each game, Duke is a final four team. If he continues to knock down jumpers, Duke is national champs. I cant wait to see him matchup with Craft and hopefully we can give Ohio St a little payback from last year.

As of right now, I dont think Alex has the lateral quickness on D. Just the few minutes he got last night, it was obvious why he isnt playing. Not long after Alex checked in, the slow white guard from Winter Park, beat him off the dribble in slow motion. Then Adrian Branch talked about Poythress beating him back door in the UK game. I hope AM can get better because he is a good athlete and he has great size.

Kedsy
11-19-2012, 11:17 AM
Quinn was a revelation tonight, and I felt like the "controlled chaos" style he brought off the bench against UK got us going and, tonight, it was just nice to see him play so many minutes (29) and play so well. I feel like that had to be a career high in minutes for him.

Actually, it wasn't even his high in minutes for the week. Quinn played 30 minutes against Kentucky.

jipops
11-19-2012, 11:17 AM
I think this team can go as far as Quinn takes them. If Quinn continues to get better each game, Duke is a final four team. If he continues to knock down jumpers, Duke is national champs. I cant wait to see him matchup with Craft and hopefully we can give Ohio St a little payback from last year.

As of right now, I dont think Alex has the lateral quickness on D. Just the few minutes he got last night, it was obvious why he isnt playing. Not long after Alex checked in, the slow white guard from Winter Park, beat him off the dribble in slow motion. Then Adrian Branch talked about Poythress beating him back door in the UK game. I hope AM can get better because he is a good athlete and he has great size.

Alex made a few mistakes on defense as all freshmen do (Rasheed had quite a few mixed in too), but he also made some very nice defensive plays as well. He was right in there in the passing lanes in a couple sequences and positioned himself on the weak-side nicely for a defensive board. I don't see too much to be concerned about defensively for Alex based on the very small sample size and he definitely isn't slow. The biggest thing is how much confidence he brings out there. I feel like if he can just knock down a jumper or two we'll see everything else amp up. But as of now, it doesn't look like he is going to crack the regular rotation. Amile already has a leg up probably due to his length and confidence.

CarmenWallaceWade
11-19-2012, 11:22 AM
I think this team can go as far as Quinn takes them. If Quinn continues to get better each game, Duke is a final four team. If he continues to knock down jumpers, Duke is national champs. I cant wait to see him matchup with Craft and hopefully we can give Ohio St a little payback from last year.

For me, Quinn dishing out 9 dimes is the key stat of this game. We simply did not have a consistent distributor like him last year and it hurt us. I know this wasn't a top 25 team but it was more about our style of play. If Quinn can continue to stay in the coaching staff's favor by making good decisions and playing defense, I like our chances to compete with anyone. Mason said it best post-game: “Guys were setting me up,” Plumlee said. “It’s not like I was shooting jumpers. You shouldn’t miss too many when you’re shooting that close.”

mo.st.dukie
11-19-2012, 11:26 AM
I think this team can go as far as Quinn takes them. If Quinn continues to get better each game, Duke is a final four team. If he continues to knock down jumpers, Duke is national champs. I cant wait to see him matchup with Craft and hopefully we can give Ohio St a little payback from last year.


And the possibility of matching up with Joe Jackson, Peyton Siva, or Phil Pressey, all really good and experienced PG's.

jipops
11-19-2012, 11:29 AM
Anybody who thought we were going to struggle shooting the basketball, fear not. We have a legitimate four guys who can absolutely fill it from deep in Seth, Rasheed, Quinn and Ryan (although he's been struggling early, he'll relocate the range), and a fifth in Thornton, who is a bit of wildcard but can get hot in spurts and provides great spot shooting off the bench.



Well, we did only shoot 29% from 3 at home against a lower tier div1 team. So I would say the jury is still out. Rasheed's shooting has been encouraging and Kelly is in a perimeter slump which we should be very confident he'll find his way out of. But I still don't think outside shooting is going to be nearly the kind of strength we've been used to over the past decade or so. I still don't think Cook and Thornton are reliable outside shooting options, not in the big games anyways. We actually don't have much of a perimeter threat coming off the bench. We certainly don't want want Hairston, Jefferson, or Murphy tossing it up from deep at this point.

75Crazie
11-19-2012, 11:45 AM
According to my scoresheet, he didn't commit a foul.

To pick a nit. :)
That's why I said "un-called" in my post. And it was completely inadvertant, but was still a foul that should have been called.

75Crazie
11-19-2012, 11:52 AM
Murphy is not ahead of Hairston and Jefferson or Rasheed, why should one of them sit when they are the ones earning the PT? The Alex campaign is getting a little nutty. It's not like Todd Z is playing instead of him. He can't see the court because he's not good enough to be out there yet. It's early, but he's getting chances in practice like everyone else and he obviously isn't making it happen. The bench got 25% of the minutes tonight...that's not so bad.
Didn't Murphy start the two exhibition games? Granted, they were exhibitions ... but the rest of the starting lineup for those games looked legit. I think what is confusing me, at least, is how he could start those two games and then practically disappear.

SCMatt33
11-19-2012, 11:54 AM
That game had "trap" written all over it. You had a team that had already beaten Miami, Duke coming off a huge win in Atlanta,and they're also getting ready to go to the Bahamas. They looked like it early. Yeah, FGC hit a bunch of threes early, but Duke was just chucking the ball on offense. Just as it started to look like FGC was going to hang around for awhile, Duke goes an rolls off 30 straight points. THIRTY! That's a ridiculous run. Even though FGC won the rest of the game by 9, scoring 30 in a row is just on another level.

Keeping up with some of the things that I had been following in the first two games:

Green lights for Mason: I hate to extrapolate to the whole season from just three games, but Mason looks really good right now. He's not just putting up stats, but he's still doing it in ways that you love to see. He's playing power basketball. He's getting most of his points going towards the rim, he's not taking more than two dribbles or more than one pivot step. He took some questionable shots in the Ga State game, but in the last two, he's really only taken high quality shots, and it shows in the stats. He's 16-19 from the field in those games. He also went 10-11 from the line in this game. Is that sustainable, probably not, but that low shot can turn a 45% shooter into a 60% shooter, maybe even 65-70 if he stays hot. There are really three variables in a free throw, how straight you shoot it, how high you shoot it, and how hard you shoot it. That shot makes the first two variables really easy to keep consistent. The margin of error for how hard becomes really small leading to streaky-ness, but for a guy like Mason, it's a good way to approach it.

The assists keep coming: Duke had 19 assists on 30 field goals, for a 63.3% assist rate. That's a really good sign that Duke is keeping this up. With the senior leadership, the chemistry on this team is through the roof. When you can move the ball like that, it puts a lot of pressure on defenses not to concentrate on just one guy and can open up the offense for your stars to shine instead of having them taken out of the game and having to rely on role players to lead the way.

They're chuckers: Okay, this team isn't really full of chuckers, but it looked that way early. 6 of Duke's first 9 shots before the first timeout were from behind the line. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it is when those shots come off of the dribble and off of passes from the top of the key to the wing, or the wing to the corner. The reason that the drive and kick works so well is that when a pass comes from the inside, shooters can have their whole body ready to shoot when the ball arrives. They don't need to reset their feet or twist their upper body. It makes for a much more consistent shot, especially when most of the shooters on this team aren't snipers who can hit from anywhere at any time. A high three point rate has been a symptom of Duke losses in the last 5 years. Is it the cause of those losses, no, but it shows that sometimes, when Duke gets down, even early, they have a tendency to shoot any open three they can find to get back in it quickly. Even if they're open, those quick threes aren't as good as the ones that come in rhythm and that's what can lead to those dreaded 2-25 games. I suspect in this case that it was more of a symptom of playing loose in the trap game, because after shooting 14 of 21 from three before the run (by my rough count from the play by play), they settled down to shoot 17 of 42 the rest of the way (really 16 of 41 not counting Kelly's heave at the end of the half). That put them at 67% before the run, which is ridiculous, but only about 40% after, which is about the high end of where I'd want them to be, but still within range.

Now we're Cook-ing with gas: 9 dishes for Quinn Cook, but more importantly, 4 to Mason. Things open up so much when you have a point guard who can do that. I've said it before, I love Tyler, but this team's full potential can only be reached if Quinn Cook earns the starting job over Thornton. He's doing that in a big way.

Lineups almost set: With Coach K, you can usually see early on who's going to get minutes. Right now, it looks like he wants to rely on the starters plus Thornton for the bulk of the minutes, with Josh and Amile picking up bench minutes at forward as needed. I think we all hope to see Murphy break into the lineup more, but he really pressed in the few minutes he got today. Duke has it's three week "break" for finals and the holidays between the Temple game and the Davidson game. During that time, Duke plays Cornell, Elon, and Santa Clara at home. Murphy should get a chance in those games to show something. If not, I suspect that he won't be getting many minutes during ACC play.

I'm exited to see this team play three straight days of tough competition in the Bahamas. We'll see how Seth's foot looks having to play that much, and we'll see what this team can do overall on quick turnarounds. That will be big down the line.

Billy Dat
11-19-2012, 12:20 PM
Didn't Murphy start the two exhibition games? Granted, they were exhibitions ... but the rest of the starting lineup for those games looked legit. I think what is confusing me, at least, is how he could start those two games and then practically disappear.

I hear you, but based on what we saw from Murphy in those two games, and what we saw from Jefferson in those same games, I think Amile deserves the minutes. I guess there will always be a camp of Duke fans who want the guys ranked higher in the recruiting rankings to get to play no matter how well they play based on the theory that if they are allowed to play through their mistakes, they will ultimately turn out to be better than the lower ranked recruits. That means Murphy over Hairston and Curry over Thornton. I can't say its a wrong theory because we haven't seen K try it both ways. But, I have to imagine that making play time a meritocracy based on practice performance and game performance is a bedrock of the program. I am amazed at how much the "Murphy needs to play" story has resonated on the board based on what we've seen him do in the minutes he's been on the court.

Saratoga2
11-19-2012, 12:25 PM
I'm exited to see this team play three straight days of tough competition in the Bahamas. We'll see how Seth's foot looks having to play that much, and we'll see what this team can do overall on quick turnarounds. That will be big down the line.

Looking down the list of potential opponents, there are a lot of quality teams, and many different styles of play. It should be a great test, even if we don't win the tournament.

Minnesota
Memphis/VCU
Possibly Louisville, Missouri,Northern Iowa or Stanford

We will see if some of our weaknesses from last season rear up again, such as:
1. whether our guards can stop penetration
2. whether we can score inside against solid frontcourts (Kentucky showed some of that already)
3. whether our thin roster in the front court can stay on the floor for 40 minutes of high intensity play
4. whether we can push the ball up the floor and get fast break opportunities
5. whether we can hit a competitive number of 3 point shots

dcar1985
11-19-2012, 12:39 PM
I hear you, but based on what we saw from Murphy in those two games, and what we saw from Jefferson in those same games, I think Amile deserves the minutes.<b> I guess there will always be a camp of Duke fans who want the guys ranked higher in the recruiting rankings to get to play no matter how well they play based on the theory that if they are allowed to play through their mistakes, they will ultimately turn out to be better than the lower ranked recruits. That means Murphy over Hairston and Curry over Thornton.</b> I can't say its a wrong theory because we haven't seen K try it both ways. But, I have to imagine that making play time a meritocracy based on practice performance and game performance is a bedrock of the program. I am amazed at how much the "Murphy needs to play" story has resonated on the board based on what we've seen him do in the minutes he's been on the court.

Funny thing is, Josh was higher ranked coming out of high school then Alex (final RSCI) Amile was ranked higher than both....and I'm pretty sure Tyler was higher regarded than Seth even though neither were considered big time prospects

Billy Dat
11-19-2012, 12:49 PM
Funny thing is, Josh was higher ranked coming out of high school then Alex (final RSCI) Amile was ranked higher than both....and I'm pretty sure Tyler was higher regarded than Seth even though neither we're considered big time prospects

Good call, I am not as up on the rankings, but you make a great point. In my prior post I meant to say "Cook over Thornton" as the Curry comparison makes no sense. I guess it's the nature of sports talk to spend more time talking about hypothetical than actuals. I haven't studied it, but I bet we collectively spend a lot more time talking about what might happen then analyzing games that actually took place. This thread, which represents an actual game that we can dig into and analyze, has less posts than the Maryland leaving the ACC thread. Granted, one was an early season blowout and one is about a charter member of the ACC leaving, but it just seems out of balance. Maybe nobody has ESPNU....

OldPhiKap
11-19-2012, 12:51 PM
Age-wise, Alex was a high school senior last year, taking his classes at Duke. He is the age of a typical freshman this year.

Let the kid develop; I am also unsure why the meme persists that his game is prime-time right now and should be getting more burn.

Let the kid run his race, and let K figure out from practices and match-ups who is on the floor. This is silly.

Jay29
11-19-2012, 01:34 PM
Regarding Alex Murphy's playing time, I don't think people are claiming that he's some star that has proven he deserves more playing time. I think people, like me, just feel like he should be getting more time in blowouts so that he has the chance to develop into a useful player for the stretch run. It made very little sense to play Curry, he of the banged up leg, in the final 5 minutes of a 20-point game, nor some of the other starters. Why not give Murphy a chance to shake off some of the jitters he seems to have had so far? Let him play the final 5 min and get a couple buckets, build some confidence.

I'm not saying he needs to take minutes away from Hairston or Jefferson -- he needs to take minutes away from starters when the game is in hand. If not, this team could be desperate later on if forced to play a raw, unexperienced Murphy in a tough game due to injury or foul trouble. You can't play the same 7 guys all year -- some games necessitate a deep bench, and it won't be very deep if Murphy is still experiencing freshman jitters come February.

jcastranio
11-19-2012, 02:11 PM
I loved the way we kept our composure, figured out a way to beat them offensively and defensively - then did it.

I like Amile and Alex. The game is just coming too fast for them at times. My theory is that team defense at a high college level is most difficult for the young small forward. Most young guards can count on their quickness to overcompensate for shortcomings - most big men can count on their size. It doesn't mean that they don't have trouble - it just doesn't stick out as much.

Most 6-7 to 6-8 college small forwards generally played as their team's "big" man in high school. They never had to guard someone their size with quickness like a guard (your college small forward). I'll bet they played a lot of zone - so the concept of help defense and switching is foreign to them. In Duke's man-to-man, the small forward usually ends up outside, inside, switching, watching the middle, running out to defend a three, etc. It is just more difficult.

Now - if Amile or Alex played at a school with a less complex defense or a mostly zone school - they could get by better. They wouldn't learn or improve (or prepare themselves for a higher level of ball), but they would show up better earlier. You know - play offense, run the court, defend an area. Nothing complicated.

Coming to Duke gives them an opportunity, but it won't come quick and it won't come easy. Kyle (not performing well for Detroit) came in playing at a high speed. But, to be honest - he ended playing as a big man for two years. He could "ease" into the small forward defensive duties because he played PF for two years. The speed of the game still impacted him (on offense) at times - all the way to graduation.

Amile and Alex both look like are giving 150% effort - that is the great news. At times, they both look like they are a step behind at times. They need to develop a confidence and an instinct on doing the right thing (Alex moreso than Amile).

I don't know if K does them a service by playing them if they are not ready. The system is - you earn the minutes you play. Yeah, I know it was a blowout. However, Alex needs gametime in crucial situations - playing with the top players. Mop-up duty can build up a false sense of security or can even make things worse by reinforcing sloppy habits.

There have been quite a few players about that size who need to develop - who needed to stay and work through the growing pains. Some transferred and never really reached their potential. Some stayed (Chris Carrawell sp?) and developed into key leaders by their junior/senior years.

I hope that Alex and Amile can feel the support keep working hard. They will be there before the year is out.

ChillinDuke
11-19-2012, 02:19 PM
Regarding Alex Murphy's playing time, I don't think people are claiming that he's some star that has proven he deserves more playing time. I think people, like me, just feel like he should be getting more time in blowouts so that he has the chance to develop into a useful player for the stretch run. It made very little sense to play Curry, he of the banged up leg, in the final 5 minutes of a 20-point game, nor some of the other starters. Why not give Murphy a chance to shake off some of the jitters he seems to have had so far? Let him play the final 5 min and get a couple buckets, build some confidence.

I'm not saying he needs to take minutes away from Hairston or Jefferson -- he needs to take minutes away from starters when the game is in hand. If not, this team could be desperate later on if forced to play a raw, unexperienced Murphy in a tough game due to injury or foul trouble. You can't play the same 7 guys all year -- some games necessitate a deep bench, and it won't be very deep if Murphy is still experiencing freshman jitters come February.

Because then Plumlee doesn't record 28 and 9...say, more like 18 and 6. If this were done with frequency, his lower numbers would hypothetically fall out of the national spotlight and NPOTY running. We would then hear more "Duke can't develop big men" lines and couldn't use Plumlee as an example of a premier Duke big. Many on the board would likely call for Coach K to play Plumlee and inflate his stats in order to refute the big man argument.

My point is not realism. My point is there's two sides to every coin. And that's why we have a Coach to decide which side of each coin is the better option, so to speak.

Clearly, for whatever reason, the side of the coin he likes right now involves Alex not playing. For the moment.

- Chillin

elvis14
11-19-2012, 03:03 PM
I am amazed at how much the "Murphy needs to play" story has resonated on the board based on what we've seen him do in the minutes he's been on the court.


Age-wise, Alex was a high school senior last year, taking his classes at Duke. He is the age of a typical freshman this year.

Let the kid develop; I am also unsure why the meme persists that his game is prime-time right now and should be getting more burn.

Let the kid run his race, and let K figure out from practices and match-ups who is on the floor. This is silly.

To understand why people want Alex (and Amile) to play all you have to do is go back to last year. Silent G never made it onto the court and there were times where we needed the balance of having a SF/3 on the court. Then to make matters worse, he transferred. Having 3 of Cook/Curry/Rasheed/Tyler on the court at the same time is different than having a true SF in the mix both offensively and defensively. Some feel that in order to reach our true potential and to match up well against many different kinds of teams that we need Alex (and Amile) to get PT and learn to contribute. In games where we are up by a bunch in the second half it would be cool to see Alex (and Amile) get more PT. Liked what Alex showed last night and would have liked to have seen more. The game wasn't in danger, it would have been cool to see him come back in.

As for the game. I actually ended up at the game and it was a lot of fun. I was glad that FGCU was good enough to make it interesting. Lots of good work particularly from Mason, QC, Rasheed and Ryan.

ChillinDuke
11-19-2012, 03:12 PM
To understand why people want Alex (and Amile) to play all you have to do is go back to last year. Silent G never made it onto the court and there were times where we needed the balance of having a SF/3 on the court. Then to make matters worse, he transferred. Having 3 of Cook/Curry/Rasheed/Tyler on the court at the same time is different than having a true SF in the mix both offensively and defensively. Some feel that in order to reach our true potential and to match up well against many different kinds of teams that we need Alex (and Amile) to get PT and learn to contribute. In games where we are up by a bunch in the second half it would be cool to see Alex (and Amile) get more PT. Liked what Alex showed last night and would have liked to have seen more. The game wasn't in danger, it would have been cool to see him come back in.

As for the game. I actually ended up at the game and it was a lot of fun. I was glad that FGCU was good enough to make it interesting. Lots of good work particularly from Mason, QC, Rasheed and Ryan.

Still don't follow. Not trying to put words in your mouth, but do you (or anyone) really think Silent G didn't make the court because we didn't want a SF/3 on the court? If he made the team better, he would've seen the court. K didn't think he made the team better.

No one is sand-bagging here. No one wanted the kid to transfer. No one wants Murph to sit and/or transfer either. But we aren't sitting him because we don't like his size.

- Chillin

Kedsy
11-19-2012, 03:33 PM
Some feel that in order to reach our true potential and to match up well against many different kinds of teams that we need Alex (and Amile) to get PT and learn to contribute.

Well, after watching Alex and Amile combine for 6 minutes against Kentucky -- and if there's any team in the country against whom we could use a bigger SF, it's Kentucky -- I would venture that Coach K is not among those who feel the way you do.

When one or both of Alex and Amile have shown in practice that they'd make the team better by playing rotation minutes, at that point my guess is K would increase their playing time.

Billy Dat
11-19-2012, 03:35 PM
To understand why people want Alex (and Amile)...

My point is, Amile is playing. He's earning non-scrub-time minutes. Of the three viable 6'7"-6'8" guys on the roster, two are playing non scrub-time minutes - Amile and Josh. Granted, Josh is more of a post player than a wing, but he's earned the minutes. If none of them were playing, or if Amile and Alex were both playing scrub time, I could see the angst.

jv001
11-19-2012, 03:42 PM
My point is, Amile is playing. He's earning non-scrub-time minutes. Of the three viable 6'7"-6'8" guys on the roster, two are playing non scrub-time minutes - Amile and Josh. Granted, Josh is more of a post player than a wing, but he's earned the minutes. If none of them were playing, or if Amile and Alex were both playing scrub time, I could see the angst.

Amile is playing well in his minutes and Alex is not. Amile brings energy that gets the team and fans excited. I want to see Alex do the same. It would surely help Alex if he would hit some shots. Hit those free throws. Looks like we're going to have the "play Alex" threads this year in place of the "play Michael" thread of last year. GoDuke!

Des Esseintes
11-19-2012, 05:19 PM
Regarding Alex Murphy's playing time, I don't think people are claiming that he's some star that has proven he deserves more playing time. I think people, like me, just feel like he should be getting more time in blowouts so that he has the chance to develop into a useful player for the stretch run. It made very little sense to play Curry, he of the banged up leg, in the final 5 minutes of a 20-point game, nor some of the other starters. Why not give Murphy a chance to shake off some of the jitters he seems to have had so far? Let him play the final 5 min and get a couple buckets, build some confidence.

I'm not saying he needs to take minutes away from Hairston or Jefferson -- he needs to take minutes away from starters when the game is in hand. If not, this team could be desperate later on if forced to play a raw, unexperienced Murphy in a tough game due to injury or foul trouble. You can't play the same 7 guys all year -- some games necessitate a deep bench, and it won't be very deep if Murphy is still experiencing freshman jitters come February.

I hear this argument a lot. What drops out of the equation, though, is that while early in the season the Alex Murphys of the team are not finished products, neither are the heavy-minute rotation players. Nor are the heavy-minute lineups finished products. Establishing a stronger rapport between Mason and Quinn--that's a relationship that could pay big dividends if it gets stronger. Giving Sulaimon more opportunities as playmaker--super-useful to develop. Getting Ryan's head right--IMPORTANT. Just because these guys start doesn't mean they should play the bare minimum that we can have them on the court and still win. The truth of the matter is that if you must make a choice between developmental time on-court for your first-best player and your eighth-best player--and you *do* have to make that choice--it is almost always wiser to keep investing in your first-best player.

Mcluhan
11-19-2012, 05:53 PM
There have been quite a few players about that size who need to develop - who needed to stay and work through the growing pains. Some transferred and never really reached their potential. Some stayed (Chris Carrawell sp?) and developed into key leaders by their junior/senior years.


As president of the Chris Carrawell fan club, it is my duty to point out that, in his own highly unorthodox way, Chris was basically killing it from year one.

jimsumner
11-19-2012, 06:21 PM
As president of the Chris Carrawell fan club, it is my duty to point out that, in his own highly unorthodox way, Chris was basically killing it from year one.

Agreed. Not the best example to prove the point. Kevin Strickland, John Smith, Alaa Abdelnaby, Brian Davis, Thomas Hill, Marty Clark, Tony Lang, Cherokee Parks, Eric Meek, Carmen Wallace, Sean Dockery, Lee Melchionni, David McClure and others examples of guys who stayed, worked, improved and played.

Cameron
11-19-2012, 06:26 PM
Well, we did only shoot 29% from 3 at home against a lower tier div1 team. So I would say the jury is still out. Rasheed's shooting has been encouraging and Kelly is in a perimeter slump which we should be very confident he'll find his way out of. But I still don't think outside shooting is going to be nearly the kind of strength we've been used to over the past decade or so. I still don't think Cook and Thornton are reliable outside shooting options, not in the big games anyways. We actually don't have much of a perimeter threat coming off the bench. We certainly don't want want Hairston, Jefferson, or Murphy tossing it up from deep at this point.

Yeah, our three-point percentage was well below average against Gulf Coast. But that is largely because of the abysmal start we had, converting on just two of our first 12 attempts from beyond the arc. That poor start, however, wasn't the result of great pressure from Gulf Coast or our inability to get open looks; we simply weren't making any shots, which is part of the game, especially when you shoot as many threes as we tend to. We were getting really good looks, but they just weren't falling in.

If you discount two end-of-clock prayers that resulted in misses (i.e. Ryan Kelly's 35-foot launch at the end of the first half and another occasion where Quinn was forced to launch a rainbow three from deep as the shot clock ran out), we made 7 of our last 17 from three as a team. That's over 41 percent, and much more in line with where we've been as a team over the course of the first three games (38%). As our guys get more reps in with each passing game and Ryan finds his groove again, I think we'll hover around 40% by the end of the year, which is a really good number from distance.

I agree that this will be far from one of our marquee years shooting the ball, but Coach K's offensive philosophy depends greatly on spacing the floor with three-point shooters. We are going to hoist a ton of treys every year no matter what. As another poster here said recently (can't remember whom now), it's what we do. Like Rick Pitino and Billy Donovan, Coach K is one of the all-time greats at utilizing the three and he's not going to turn his back on it now. That doesn't mean, however, that we turn our back on Mason Plumlee. He's our generator on offense this year. I think everyone understands that. It's up to our guys to hit shots from outside to open the floor up and make Mason's job easier in the middle.

jcastranio
11-19-2012, 06:27 PM
Agreed. Not the best example to prove the point. Kevin Strickland, John Smith, Alaa Abdelnaby, Brian Davis, Thomas Hill, Marty Clark, Tony Lang, Cherokee Parks, Eric Meek, Carmen Wallace, Sean Dockery, Lee Melchionni, David McClure and others examples of guys who stayed, worked, improved and played.

Thanks. I was racking my brain for other examples and coming up somewhat blank. I used Chris because of how much better his senior year was compared to any other year. He was truly exceptional that season.

Jay29
11-19-2012, 06:35 PM
I hear this argument a lot. What drops out of the equation, though, is that while early in the season the Alex Murphys of the team are not finished products, neither are the heavy-minute rotation players. Nor are the heavy-minute lineups finished products. Establishing a stronger rapport between Mason and Quinn--that's a relationship that could pay big dividends if it gets stronger. Giving Sulaimon more opportunities as playmaker--super-useful to develop. Getting Ryan's head right--IMPORTANT. Just because these guys start doesn't mean they should play the bare minimum that we can have them on the court and still win. The truth of the matter is that if you must make a choice between developmental time on-court for your first-best player and your eighth-best player--and you *do* have to make that choice--it is almost always wiser to keep investing in your first-best player.

That's actually a great point. I guess we tend to think of the upperclassmen as established players, if not completely finished with their development. And you're right that it's just as important to develop the relationship between players so that their movements are anticipated without thinking. Obviously Murphy is not as important to the team's success this year as, say, Kelly, nor as important as cultivating familiarity amongst the top 7 players (that's a lot of interpersonal relationships that I can't be bothered to calculate right now).

But I also think that it's important to keep all your (potentially useful) players fresh, keep them energized, build their confidence. It's also important to keep the starters healthy (see Curry) and un-fatigued. That's where Murphy should be able to step in and kill two birds with one stone. If he doesn't pick up more minutes, he could be another transfer. Sure, I can't watch practice and know if he's even earned 2 minutes/game, but I would still be giving him time unless he broke team rules or something.

Who knows, maybe with the quality of the incoming players, Coach K thought Gbinije was expendable? Doesn't seem like Coach K to play around with a kid like that, but you've got to play scholarship players if you want to keep them.

Indoor66
11-19-2012, 06:58 PM
That's actually a great point. I guess we tend to think of the upperclassmen as established players, if not completely finished with their development. And you're right that it's just as important to develop the relationship between players so that their movements are anticipated without thinking. Obviously Murphy is not as important to the team's success this year as, say, Kelly, nor as important as cultivating familiarity amongst the top 7 players (that's a lot of interpersonal relationships that I can't be bothered to calculate right now).

But I also think that it's important to keep all your (potentially useful) players fresh, keep them energized, build their confidence. It's also important to keep the starters healthy (see Curry) and un-fatigued. That's where Murphy should be able to step in and kill two birds with one stone. If he doesn't pick up more minutes, he could be another transfer. Sure, I can't watch practice and know if he's even earned 2 minutes/game, but I would still be giving him time unless he broke team rules or something.

Who knows, maybe with the quality of the incoming players, Coach K thought Gbinije was expendable? Doesn't seem like Coach K to play around with a kid like that, but you've got to play scholarship players if you want to keep them.

I knew the dreaded "keep all your (potentially useful) players fresh, keep them energized, build their confidence. It's also important to keep the starters healthy (see Curry) and un-fatigued" would rear its ugly head sometime soon.

Cameron
11-19-2012, 07:42 PM
I went back to watched some of the game and I'm super excited about what we have in this team. I'm not worried at all about our slow starts. All of our early shots were good, high percentage looks that we just didn't hit. That's nothing to sweat over, because this team is legit.

I think Mason's always been this good, he's just never had a guy like Quinn over his entire career with the exception of 11 games with Kyrie Irving. Now that he's getting the ball consistently, he doesn't have to worry about a few bad plays here and there because he knows he will have more chances, and it's REALLY helped his confidence. He's just dominating out there.

Quinn consistently looked for Mason and I like what we have with that pair of guys. We need to develop some sort of pick and roll game with Quinn and our 2 big guys, it would be devastatingly effective with Quinn's great decision making, Mason's beastliness inside, and Ryan's Euro-game. Honestly, If Quinn was this good last year, then last year's team might have had a chance to be even better than this current team. We had Miles last year, and he was basically a stronger but less skilled Mason, and just as deadly a finisher at the rim. Plus, with Austin as a more dynamic but perhaps less savvy version of what we have in Sulaimon this year, last year's team could REALLY benefitted from a true point guard.

Speaking of Sulaimon, he looks like a vet out there shooting with confidence, getting to the free throw line, and diving on the floor for balls. I like the energy and swagger he brings to this team.

Ryan was only 1-5 from three but he actually played pretty great. He's been pretty active on both sides and is making nice hustle plays all over the place.

Seth has a noticeably improved handle from last year. I see him get in to trouble while dribbling now and still keep the ball away from his defender with his dribble. He's been doing a much better job taking care of the ball than in the past.

Amile needs to pass Josh Hairston on the depth chart, he's much more active when he's in the game, trying to make plays for his teammates, and just having a good nose for the ball. He's probably our 8th man right now and he's pretty solid.

With all that, I think I can safely say this team is definitively better than last year's. All of our returning guys got better, Austin and his insatiable demand for touches is now gone, and with the huge addition of Rasheed, and solid bench contributions from Tyler and Amile, and even without Alex and Marshall really getting in the mix yet, this Duke team a dangerous collection of high quality players with skill at every position. The whole key is still Quinn Cook. If he can keep this level of play up and Mason plays like a legit All-American, I could see us being #1 at some point this season and easily grabbing a #1 seed. Very very exciting.

This sums up my thoughts on our early-season performance superbly. We look light years ahead of where we were at any point last season, even during our three-game stretch in Maui. What we have this year is a team that really enjoys playing with each other and players that are not concerned with individual exploits. This group is already demonstrating signs of an extraordinary passing team with a mastery of ball movement that is typically only seen in teams with a bevy of experienced, veteran guards. Quinn and Rasheed are especially excellent in this regard, especially relative to their experience. Each possesses a tremendous ability to find the open man with that extra pass. Seth has done a great job of this as well early on. That is something that drove me crazy a season ago: stopping one pass short of a good shot, and instead settling for a shot that was either contested or far too difficult or unnecessarily taking the ball on a 30-second journey all the way to the basket ala Allen Iverson.

This year, we are playing with great balance and doing a lovely job of getting everyone involved, which really spreads the court and makes our offense flow that much more effortlessly. The ball movement has just been excellent by comparison. If Quinn can continue to play at the frenetic pace he has while at the same time staying under control, a difficult balance to maintain for any point guard but one that Quinn, with not many starts under his belt heading into the season, has performed rather steadily, our offense could tally up some serious points by the end of the year. We look as fluid as we did during the CBE Classic in 2010, just minus Kyrie Irving. I admit that's a rather big "just minus," but Quinn is doing an admirable job of trying to lead this offense in the same capacity. As licc85 mentions, Quinn has Mason once again looking like the beast that scored 25 points and grabbed 12 rebounds as a sophomore in the CBE semi-finals in Kansas City versus Marquette. There is no questions that Mason enjoys playing with Quinn at the helm. We've found our offensive orchestrator. Now let's sit back and watch him mature.

licc85
11-19-2012, 09:04 PM
This sums up my thoughts on our early-season performance superbly. We look light years ahead of where we were at any point last season, even during our three-game stretch in Maui. What we have this year is a team that really enjoys playing with each other and players that are not concerned with individual exploits. This group is already demonstrating signs of an extraordinary passing team with a mastery of ball movement that is typically only seen in teams with a bevy of experienced, veteran guards. Quinn and Rasheed are especially excellent in this regard, especially relative to their experience. Each possesses a tremendous ability to find the open man with that extra pass. Seth has done a great job of this as well early on. That is something that drove me crazy a season ago: stopping one pass short of a good shot, and instead settling for a shot that was either contested or far too difficult or unnecessarily taking the ball on a 30-second journey all the way to the basket ala Allen Iverson.

This year, we are playing with great balance and doing a lovely job of getting everyone involved, which really spreads the court and makes our offense flow that much more effortlessly. The ball movement has just been excellent by comparison. If Quinn can continue to play at the frenetic pace he has while at the same time staying under control, a difficult balance to maintain for any point guard but one that Quinn, with not many starts under his belt heading into the season, has performed rather steadily, our offense could tally up some serious points by the end of the year. We look as fluid as we did during the CBE Classic in 2010, just minus Kyrie Irving. I admit that's a rather big "just minus," but Quinn is doing an admirable job of trying to lead this offense in the same capacity. As licc85 mentions, Quinn has Mason once again looking like the beast that scored 25 points and grabbed 12 rebounds as a sophomore in the CBE semi-finals in Kansas City versus Marquette. There is no questions that Mason enjoys playing with Quinn at the helm. We've found our offensive orchestrator. Now let's sit back and watch him mature.


I like that you emphasized in your post how much we are sharing the ball this year compared to last year. BludevilBrowns mentioned this in the in-game thread, and I agree completely: the stat of the game has to be that we had 18 assists on 29 FGs. That's a sign of a mature and highly effective offense. We were among the bottom of the ACC in assist numbers last year, and I don't think that will be the case again. I love the way this team shares the rock.

dukebballcamper90-91
11-19-2012, 09:42 PM
Like to see QC knock the 3 ball down consistently. If he does that, watch out. I hope Sheed don't start settling for the 3 ball too much, he has the quickness to get a foul line type jumper a lot. Mason is improving every game. AJeff is going to earn playing time because he is a K type player. Not sure what is going on with Murphy, mental? Got a tough stretch coming, Seth will not get time to heal before OSU, ouch.

Kedsy
11-19-2012, 10:51 PM
As our guys get more reps in with each passing game and Ryan finds his groove again, I think we'll hover around 40% by the end of the year, which is a really good number from distance.

Well, if we end up there then it would justify taking so many three point shots, but I'll be surprised if it happens. Looking at our shooters' form, rather than simply if the ball they shot happened to go into the basket during our first three games, it doesn't look nearly as rosy to me. Really, only Seth displays shooter's form that you would expect would sustain a high percentage. Rasheed's form isn't terrible, but it isn't great either, and to me at least it doesn't look like he'll be able to keep up a high percentage -- I'd expect him to drop to probably 35% or lower. Ryan's form has always been a bit odd, but he does have a full season of high percentage production to point to, so who knows. If you watch Quinn take a shot, he has "streak shooter" written all over him and it's hard to see him hitting those wristy fade-away shots against quicker or taller guards. And Tyler just sort of flings the ball at the basket. Obviously anything can happen, and especially Rasheed and Quinn may improve with experience, but I'll be very surprised if our season numbers as a team are anywhere close to 40%.

Dr. Rosenrosen
11-20-2012, 02:40 AM
With respect to 3pt shooting, I suspect this year we will be strong enough from behind the arc to warrant all the shots that will be taken. As K says, it's all about taking good shots... shots in rhythm. Just to set expectations, here's a look at 3pt shooting % back to 2001-02. As we can see, 40% as a team is highly unlikely. Last time we hit 40% was in 91-92 - shot an unbelievable 43.4% with Laettner, Hurley and T Hill leading the way. But if we play within ourselves and guys like Curry, Sheed and Kelly lead the way, shooting in the high 30s seems pretty reasonable.

Season... 3pt%
2001-02... 36.3%
2002-03... 36.2%
2003-04... 36.8%
2004-05... 38.0%
2005-06... 38.6%
2006-07... 38.1%
2007-08... 37.7%
2008-09... 34.9%
2009-10... 38.7%
2010-11... 37.4%
2011-12... 37.1%

Our 3pt shooting notwithstanding, I think the most important and most exciting development so far is the TEAM defense we are playing. Not talking about individual defensive skills but rather the team's overall defensive prowess as a unit. 30-0 runs are obviously rare but they aren't the result of amazing offense. They are sparked by great team defensive focus and intensity. To me, that was the single most remarkable and exciting element of the FGCU game.

Cameron
11-20-2012, 10:34 AM
With respect to 3pt shooting, I suspect this year we will be strong enough from behind the arc to warrant all the shots that will be taken. As K says, it's all about taking good shots... shots in rhythm. Just to set expectations, here's a look at 3pt shooting % back to 2001-02. As we can see, 40% as a team is highly unlikely. Last time we hit 40% was in 91-92 - shot an unbelievable 43.4% with Laettner, Hurley and T Hill leading the way. But if we play within ourselves and guys like Curry, Sheed and Kelly lead the way, shooting in the high 30s seems pretty reasonable.

Season... 3pt%
2001-02... 36.3%
2002-03... 36.2%
2003-04... 36.8%
2004-05... 38.0%
2005-06... 38.6%
2006-07... 38.1%
2007-08... 37.7%
2008-09... 34.9%
2009-10... 38.7%
2010-11... 37.4%
2011-12... 37.1%

Our 3pt shooting notwithstanding, I think the most important and most exciting development so far is the TEAM defense we are playing. Not talking about individual defensive skills but rather the team's overall defensive prowess as a unit. 30-0 runs are obviously rare but they aren't the result of amazing offense. They are sparked by great team defensive focus and intensity. To me, that was the single most remarkable and exciting element of the FGCU game.

Good data. Even though my prediction of 40% probably is too high, the fact that we've hovered around 37% or so from three-point range as a team over the last decade, a span of time that has seen some excellent shooting teams in Durham, coupled with the fact that we are at 38% so far this season -- with Ryan Kelly in such a terrible slump -- only serves to prove my point that we have a good cast of bombers on this team.


Really, only Seth displays shooter's form that you would expect would sustain a high percentage. Rasheed's form isn't terrible, but it isn't great either, and to me at least it doesn't look like he'll be able to keep up a high percentage -- I'd expect him to drop to probably 35% or lower.

We'll have to disagree here. I think Rasheed has pretty good form. While he has demonstrated some of the same streaky tendencies as Andre thus far in his short career, Rasheed has that same natural touch from outside. He approaches each shot with great rhythym and, although maybe somewhat of a hot and cold shooter, Rasheed never takes a shot that you look at and say, "Bad shot," no matter whether it's a 22-footer or taken two seconds into the shot clock with nobody back. You are simply surprised it didn't go in. That's how I feel at least. That's not a feeling that is produced by many players, but Rasheed has that vibe. He's opreates with extreme confidence offensively, and that makes me conident that he's going to make the play.

I would be shocked if Rasheed's three-point shooting dipped below 35% for the year.

roywhite
11-20-2012, 10:44 AM
Good data. Even though my prediction of 40% probably is too high, the fact that we've hovered around 37% or so from three-point range as a team over the last decade, a span of time that has seen some excellent shooting teams in Durham, coupled with the fact that we are at 38% so far this season -- with Ryan Kelly in such a terrible slump -- only serves to prove my point that we have a good cast of bombers on this team.



We'll have to disagree here. I think Rasheed has pretty good form. While he has demonstrated some of the same streaky tendencies as Andre thus far in his short career, Rasheed has that same natural touch from outside. He approaches each shot with great rhythym and, although maybe somewhat of a hot and cold shooter, Rasheed never takes a shot that you look at and say, "Bad shot," no matter whether it's a 22-footer or taken two seconds into the shot clock with nobody back. You are simply surprised it didn't go in. That's how I feel at least. That's not a feeling that is produced by many players, but Rasheed has that vibe. He's opreates with extreme confidence offensively, and that makes me conident that he's going to make the play.

I would be shocked if Rasheed's three-point shooting dipped below 35% for the year.

A couple quick notes:

The 3-point line for college was extended by approx. 1 foot, effective for the 2008-09 season
The change appears to have had some impact on overall accuracy, but not a huge change

Rasheed won the McDonalds 3-point shooting contest
http://espn.go.com/high-school/boys-basketball/video/clip?id=7741652

Cameron
11-20-2012, 11:08 AM
A couple quick notes:

The 3-point line for college was extended by approx. 1 foot, effective for the 2008-09 season
The change appears to have had some impact on overall accuracy, but not a huge change

Rasheed won the McDonalds 3-point shooting contest
http://espn.go.com/high-school/boys-basketball/video/clip?id=7741652

Both points would seem to be in support of my contention that we have a pretty good slew of outside shooters.. Not sure if that was your intent or not.

I just can't figure out why some are not sold on Rasheed as a three-point shooter or scorer. The kid was a great outside shooter and scorer in high school -- 28 per game is lethal at any level and, as you point out, he won the McDonald's three-point contest -- and he has proven to be very efficient at both areas of the game so far in college. He's just a natural scorer who has a knack for finding the basket.

Perhaps if after every time Rasheed makes a three-pointer balloons are released from the ceiling of Cameron amid the roaring backdrop of the Black Eyed Peas' "Let's Get It Started," people will begin to take more notice:D

DukieInBrasil
11-20-2012, 11:26 AM
Both points would seem to be in support of my contention that we have a pretty good slew of outside shooters.. Not sure if that was your intent or not.

I just can't figure out why some are not sold on Rasheed as a three-point shooter or scorer. The kid was a great outside shooter and scorer in high school -- 28 per game is lethal at any level and, as you point out, he won the McDonald's three-point contest -- and he has proven to be very efficient at both areas of the game so far in college. He's just a natural scorer who has a knack for finding the basket.

Perhaps if after every time Rasheed makes a three-pointer balloons are released from the ceiling of Cameron amid the roaring backdrop of the Black Eyed Peas' "Let's Get It Started," people will begin to take more notice:D

per the bolded part: yes he has shown to be an efficient 3pt shooter, at 44%, but his FG% aside from that is abysmal, 2-13, or 15%, for an overall 32%. His FT% is solid, at 87.5%. So, i would argue that he has ONLY been efficient from 3pt land (and the FT line), at least in terms of scoring. He has done a good job of distributing the ball to people in scoring position, so that's important too.

Billy Dat
11-20-2012, 11:29 AM
Perhaps if after every time Rasheed makes a three-pointer balloons are released from the ceiling of Cameron amid the roaring backdrop of the Black Eyed Peas' "Let's Get It Started," people will begin to take more notice:D

That might work. But, I think more people would pay attention if, every time Sheed hit a 3, Alex Murphy whipped off his warm-ups and checked into the game.

roywhite
11-20-2012, 11:33 AM
per the bolded part: yes he has shown to be an efficient 3pt shooter, at 44%, but his FG% aside from that is abysmal, 2-13, or 15%, for an overall 32%. His FT% is solid, at 87.5%. So, i would argue that he has ONLY been efficient from 3pt land (and the FT line), at least in terms of scoring. He has done a good job of distributing the ball to people in scoring position, so that's important too.

Not much of a sample size.

Seems like he may need work on finishing his drives, and his mid-range shooting. Not uncommon for even talented players making the transition to college hoops.
And he's got the tools...a good shooting touch as evidenced by FT and 3-pt shooting, good athletic ability, and an apparent high degree of maturity for a first-year player.

Not the first to say it, but looks to me like Rasheed is a very good player on his way to elite.

Cameron
11-20-2012, 11:41 AM
That might work. But, I think more people would pay attention if, every time Sheed hit a 3, Alex Murphy whipped off his warm-ups and checked into the game.

That'd definitely work around here. Or maybe Rasheed should just play in a Nick Horvath jersey. That'd earn him immediate respect. Remember that time Nick made 17 threes in a shirts and skins game at practice while playing solely on his tippy toes? He was the master marksman.

Kedsy
11-20-2012, 11:56 AM
We'll have to disagree here. I think Rasheed has pretty good form. While he has demonstrated some of the same streaky tendencies as Andre thus far in his short career, Rasheed has that same natural touch from outside. He approaches each shot with great rhythym and, although maybe somewhat of a hot and cold shooter, Rasheed never takes a shot that you look at and say, "Bad shot," no matter whether it's a 22-footer or taken two seconds into the shot clock with nobody back. You are simply surprised it didn't go in. That's how I feel at least. That's not a feeling that is produced by many players, but Rasheed has that vibe. He's opreates with extreme confidence offensively, and that makes me conident that he's going to make the play.

I agree he's been taking good in-rhythm shots, and that's going to help his percentage. And I have no problem with him taking those shots -- he needs to take them. But that has little to do with form. And Rasheed's form is nowhere as good as Andre's. Rasheed's shoulders aren't always square, his arms get too far out in front of his head, and his shot has a lower than optimal arc. These things usually lead to a lower percentage.

I understand he won the McDonald's three-point contest. So did Ryan, who has an even more unorthodox form. But at the college level it took Ryan a couple seasons before he even broke 32% from threeland. As the defenders get bigger and quicker, I expect Rasheed will struggle to maintain a high percentage as well. By next season as he masters the speed of the college game he'll probably be ready to shoot a higher clip.

Having said all that, maybe he'll adjust to the speed of the game faster than most freshman. He certainly seems to be playing at a very high level right now. I just wouldn't count on him for 40% long-range bombing, that's all.

Cameron
11-20-2012, 09:45 PM
I agree he's been taking good in-rhythm shots, and that's going to help his percentage. And I have no problem with him taking those shots -- he needs to take them. But that has little to do with form. And Rasheed's form is nowhere as good as Andre's. Rasheed's shoulders aren't always square, his arms get too far out in front of his head, and his shot has a lower than optimal arc. These things usually lead to a lower percentage.

I understand he won the McDonald's three-point contest. So did Ryan, who has an even more unorthodox form. But at the college level it took Ryan a couple seasons before he even broke 32% from threeland. As the defenders get bigger and quicker, I expect Rasheed will struggle to maintain a high percentage as well. By next season as he masters the speed of the college game he'll probably be ready to shoot a higher clip.

Having said all that, maybe he'll adjust to the speed of the game faster than most freshman. He certainly seems to be playing at a very high level right now. I just wouldn't count on him for 40% long-range bombing, that's all.

I think too much emphasis is often put on "classic shooting form." If a shooter passes the eye test, which simply is to say can make shots on a consistent basis (I know, I am not as technical as greybeard, who's like Bill Nye the Science guy by comparison), then style of form does not matter very much. There have been plenty of basketball players throughout time, at all levels of the game, who have excelled as elite shooters despite unorthodox approaches to shooting. Look, for instance, at a guy like Reggie Miller. Here you had a player who possessed some of the absolute worst hand mechanics and one of the ugliest releases in the history of the NBA, with a follow through that made his shot appear as if the ball had little chance of hitting the backboard, let alone falling in the net. And yet on the day he retired, Miller had made more three-point baskets than anyone in history of the game ever had. Another legendary player with less than orthodox forms but highly successful shots were Larry Bird, who cocked the ball back so far over his head that it looked like the weight of the ball might tip him backward. Today, Peja Stojakovic, Kevin Martin and Jimmer Fredette are all guys who have odd-looking shots but who can fill it up like a tap at happy hour.

Much more important than a shooter's style of form is the shooter's ability to understand what form works best for him and then maintain consistency -- and thus repeat success -- by shooting it the same way every time. Sure tiny tweaks can be made to a shooter's delivery along the way, such as getting more loft in order to create a softer touch around the rim, but, for the really good shooters at this level of the game, what you see is what you get. And if what you are getting is made baskets, then the shot must already be pretty good.

With a guy like Chris Collins on the bench guiding him along, I imagine Rasheed will eventually get a little more arc under his shot and probably learn a trick or two to get rid of the ball out of hands a sliver quicker. But he has all the looks of a kid who is going to be a great shooter one day.

Kedsy
11-20-2012, 11:01 PM
I think too much emphasis is often put on "classic shooting form." If a shooter passes the eye test, which simply is to say can make shots on a consistent basis (I know, I am not as technical as greybeard, who's like Bill Nye the Science guy by comparison), then style of form does not matter very much. There have been plenty of basketball players throughout time, at all levels of the game, who have excelled as elite shooters despite unorthodox approaches to shooting. Look, for instance, at a guy like Reggie Miller. Here you had a player who possessed some of the absolute worst hand mechanics and one of the ugliest releases in the history of the NBA, with a follow through that made his shot appear as if the ball had little chance of hitting the backboard, let alone falling in the net. And yet on the day he retired, Miller had made more three-point baskets than anyone in history of the game ever had. Another legendary player with less than orthodox forms but highly successful shots were Larry Bird, who cocked the ball back so far over his head that it looked like the weight of the ball might tip him backward. Today, Peja Stojakovic, Kevin Martin and Jimmer Fredette are all guys who have odd-looking shots but who can fill it up like a tap at happy hour.

Much more important than a shooter's style of form is the shooter's ability to understand what form works best for him and then maintain consistency -- and thus repeat success -- by shooting it the same way every time. Sure tiny tweaks can be made to a shooter's delivery along the way, such as getting more loft in order to create a softer touch around the rim, but, for the really good shooters at this level of the game, what you see is what you get. And if what you are getting is made baskets, then the shot must already be pretty good.

With a guy like Chris Collins on the bench guiding him along, I imagine Rasheed will eventually get a little more arc under his shot and probably learn a trick or two to get rid of the ball out of hands a sliver quicker. But he has all the looks of a kid who is going to be a great shooter one day.

This is all pretty much true, but I would say (a) even though it's possible to have bad form and shoot a high percentage, you're a lot more likely to shoot a high percentage if you have good form; (b) three games of shooting a decent percentage is not nearly enough of a sample to show you can "make shots on a consistent basis"; (c) if you have bad form, and you hit 8 of your first 18 three-point shots, you're percentage is likely to go down; and (d) even if Rasheed "has all the looks of a kid who is going to be a great shooter one day," it doesn't mean he's a great shooter now.

I'm not down on the kid. Far from it. I'm thrilled with Rasheed's game from top to bottom. He can hit an open three and if he's taking open shots in rhythm I'll be happy with every one. The point I've been trying to make is that as a team our three point shooting this year is not nearly as strong as it has been in the recent past. And despite the reasonable percentages we've hit in our first three games, I still feel confident in my assessment.

Cameron
11-21-2012, 12:09 AM
This is all pretty much true, but I would say (a) even though it's possible to have bad form and shoot a high percentage, you're a lot more likely to shoot a high percentage if you have good form; (b) three games of shooting a decent percentage is not nearly enough of a sample to show you can "make shots on a consistent basis"; (c) if you have bad form, and you hit 8 of your first 18 three-point shots, you're percentage is likely to go down; and (d) even if Rasheed "has all the looks of a kid who is going to be a great shooter one day," it doesn't mean he's a great shooter now.

I'm not down on the kid. Far from it. I'm thrilled with Rasheed's game from top to bottom. He can hit an open three and if he's taking open shots in rhythm I'll be happy with every one. The point I've been trying to make is that as a team our three point shooting this year is not nearly as strong as it has been in the recent past. And despite the reasonable percentages we've hit in our first three games, I still feel confident in my assessment.

I knew you'd say that as soon as I typed it! ;)

I should have prefaced that comment with, "Already a very good shooter, Rasheed has all the looks of a kid who is going to be a great shooter one day."

And you're right, three games is a very small sample size. As I said before, however, the kid just passes the eye test for me. Rasheed was a prolific scorer in high school, scored prolifically against the best of the best during both his senior season and in the all-star games, and has had a rather excellent start as a freshman at Duke, averaging almost 12 points and shooting almost 45% from three, including netting 14 against UK and hitting three straight triples to keep the Cats at bay in the second half.

To temper my expectations a bit, I am very aware of Taylor King's hot start in 2007, notably against Michigan and the legendary Wisconsin game, wherein King was dropping shots from places he should have won cars. He wasn't the all-around player that Rasheed is, though, and certainly couldn't play the same quality of defense. That's because, well, King thought Cameron Indoor was a park and never played any. I certainly appreciate your wait-and-see approach, though. I think we can both agree that Rasheed will be an all-out stud at some point.

Kedsy
11-21-2012, 01:01 AM
I think we can both agree that Rasheed will be an all-out stud at some point.

Yes, I'm happy to join with this sentiment.

Des Esseintes
11-21-2012, 10:21 AM
I understand he won the McDonald's three-point contest. So did Ryan, who has an even more unorthodox form.


So did Duhon. I don't know if a single fact has ever had a greater deranging effect on my sports watching. I spent four years convinced Duhon was a great shooter in spite of ever-increasing evidence to the contrary. Happily, he was good at almost everything else and had a great career at Duke, but that McDonald's game contest was a huge outlier.

Cameron
11-21-2012, 11:08 AM
So did Duhon. I don't know if a single fact has ever had a greater deranging effect on my sports watching. I spent four years convinced Duhon was a great shooter in spite of ever-increasing evidence to the contrary. Happily, he was good at almost everything else and had a great career at Duke, but that McDonald's game contest was a huge outlier.

Your outlier theory works if you are only looking at Duhon's junior and senior seasons, in which at one point he was shooting 19% from three-point land. Granted, not good.

Throughout Duhon's first two years in Durham, however, he was deadly from anywhere inside 25 feet. I still contend that Jason Williams and Chris Duhon composed the most lethal one-two backcourt shooting punch I have ever seen during my time watching college basketball. There was a game in 2002 against Wake Forest in Cameron in particular that I will never forget. During a bang-bang spurt late in the first half, one of those deliciously hot scoring rolls that Duke was so accustomed to in the earlier part of last decade, Duhon pulls up and hits a shot from 22 feet. Next trip down the floor, Jason says Can you top this? and drills one dead on from 25'. Two trips later, after a missed Wake three-point attempt, Duhon clears the rebound and races the ball up the floor, on a mission to answer that challenge. Before the defense even had a chance to turn around and get into place, he nonchalantly lets fly a rainbow 28 feet from the basket. Three points were added to the scoreboard before Wake’s players even knew where the ball was. Cameron fell apart.

While his percentage from three for a season was never higher than 36%, Duhon had games where he was utterly unguardable. At Wake as a junior, in the midst of a tumultuous winter in which he couldn’t find the ocean let alone throw a ball in it on some nights, Duhon hit three crucial three-pointers during that epic double-overtime game against the Deacons that were from so far out on the floor, it looked like he was playing a game of scrabble with himself, seeing which painted letter on the court he could make a shot from next. It was incredible.

He was a streaky shooter, to be sure, and his low percentages were a bit deceiving I think due to the sheer distance in which Duhon loved to shoot the basketball – the amount of times he pulled up from 25 feet during his career made J.J. Redick’s shot selection look cautious. The thing about Chris, though, and why he’s my favorite Blue Devil of all-time, is that he had more confidence in himself than any other Duke player I’ve seen outside of Christian Laettner. Mike Patrick and Dick Vitale captured that inner-belief and never-die spirit best during a Carolina trip to Cameron in 2003, a game that had seen Duhon shoot deep three after deep three and come up short every time. After finally converting on a three-pointer in the waning minutes of a tight game, a bomb from 25-feet no less, Patrick and Vitale had this exchange:

Mike Patrick: Duhon with another long three and he hit that one.
Dick Vitale: I’ll tell you what, for a guy shooting 19%, he’s certainly not bashful.

God I loved Chris Duhon.

Steven43
11-21-2012, 12:43 PM
Mason through 3 games
24-31 FG 77.4%
17-22 FT 77.3%
delightful

Ryan through 3 games
40.7% FG
53.8% FT
27.3% 3-pt
small sample, but a bit puzzling

I don't think it's particularly puzzling. Ryan has always had a flat shot, which is not conducive to consistently hitting outside shots, particularly from long range. I wish he would limit his three-point attempts to one or two per game at most. His free throw shooting will probably settle around 65-70%, which is not bad for a player of his height. I think he would do well to focus on trying to get shots closer to the basket. I was sitting almost at floor level for the FGCU game and Ryan looked surprisingly quick and powerful when he attacked the rim on a couple of occasions. I had not realized he had that kind of physical ability. I think he should remake his game to focus more on playing like a traditional power forward and stop the long-range bombing. The list of power forwards that are great shooters from long-range, mid-range, and near the basket is basically just Larry Bird (the best ever at his position) and Dirk Nowitzki.

Monmouth77
11-21-2012, 12:53 PM
I don't think it's particularly puzzling. Ryan has always had a flat shot, which is not conducive to consistently hitting outside shots, particularly from long range. I wish he would limit his three-point attempts to one or two per game at most. His free throw shooting will probably settle around 65-70%, which is not bad for a player of his height. I think he would do well to focus on trying to get shots closer to the basket. I was sitting almost at floor level for the FGCU game and Ryan looked surprisingly quick and powerful when he attacked the rim on a couple of occasions. I had not realized he had that kind of physical ability. I think he should remake his game to focus more on playing like a traditional power forward and stop the long-range bombing. The list of power forwards that are great shooters from long-range, mid-range, and near the basket is basically just Larry Bird (the best ever at his position) and Dirk Nowitzki.

I think Kevin Love might disagree with your last sentence.

As for Ryan, I fully agree that he has increased confidence and ability to take his man off the dribble from the wing, and would love to see him shake his man to clear space for a mid range jumper more often. Or draw the defense on a drive and dish low to Mason. I think those kinds of plays are coming this year.

What sets Ryan up to create from the wing, however, is his ability to hit the three and keep the defense honest. He'll hit better than 27% and should keep shooting a few a game.

jimsumner
11-21-2012, 01:15 PM
I don't think it's particularly puzzling. Ryan has always had a flat shot, which is not conducive to consistently hitting outside shots, particularly from long range. I wish he would limit his three-point attempts to one or two per game at most. His free throw shooting will probably settle around 65-70%, which is not bad for a player of his height. I think he would do well to focus on trying to get shots closer to the basket. I was sitting almost at floor level for the FGCU game and Ryan looked surprisingly quick and powerful when he attacked the rim on a couple of occasions. I had not realized he had that kind of physical ability. I think he should remake his game to focus more on playing like a traditional power forward and stop the long-range bombing. The list of power forwards that are great shooters from long-range, mid-range, and near the basket is basically just Larry Bird (the best ever at his position) and Dirk Nowitzki.

You do realize that Kelly made 40.8% of his 3s last season (best on the team) and 80.7% of his foul shots?

And that's with a somewhat bigger sample-size than three games.

MChambers
11-21-2012, 01:20 PM
You do realize that Kelly made 40.8% of his 3s last season (best on the team) and 80.7% of his foul shots?

And that's with a somewhat bigger sample-size than three games.
Please don't confuse the discussion with hard facts!

flyingdutchdevil
11-21-2012, 01:30 PM
You do realize that Kelly made 40.8% of his 3s last season (best on the team) and 80.7% of his foul shots?

And that's with a somewhat bigger sample-size than three games.

Not-so-bold prediction: Kelly will go for 25+ in one game during the tournament. Right now, as strange as this is to say, Kelly is a sleeper. Teams aren't going to guard him closely because they'll be so focused on Plumlee / Curry / Sulaimon (who I have a feeling opposing teams are thinking is the wild card).

Kelly has the unique ability to provide size and spread the floor at the same time. As Jim said, a 41% shooter cannot sustain this poor start. He'll get out of it, and I'm convinced it will happen against Minny or Memphis / VCU.

That said, I don't want Plumlee and Curry to take their gas off the pedal. With the two of them going at this pace, and Sully / Kelly / Quinn all offensive weapons, we are gonna be virtually impossible to stop.

How did this season get so exciting so fast?

Kedsy
11-21-2012, 02:58 PM
You do realize that Kelly made 40.8% of his 3s last season (best on the team) and 80.7% of his foul shots?

And that's with a somewhat bigger sample-size than three games.

He also hit 80.5% of his free throws the year before that. Unless something's physically wrong with Ryan his FT% will certainly go way up.

As far as Ryan shooting threes, he's always been a bit of a streak shooter (presumably due in part to his unorthodox form). Last season he had one four game stretch when he hit 8 for 12 from three, another four game stretch when he hit 6 for 9 a third four game stretch where he hit 8 for 15. So, in those 12 games he shot 61% from three-point range. In the other 22 games he shot an aggregate of 29%, which isn't much different from the 27% he's shot so far this season. I suspect at some point he'll get on a hot streak and his three-point percentage will rise to at least the high thirties.

Wander
11-21-2012, 03:09 PM
You do realize that Kelly made 40.8% of his 3s last season (best on the team) and 80.7% of his foul shots?

And that's with a somewhat bigger sample-size than three games.

Percentages aren't everything. Remember back when silly people used to argue that Salim Stoudemire was a better 3-point shooter than JJ Redick because he had a higher shooting percentage? As a point of comparison, Kentucky's Kyle Wiltjer is a reasonably similar player to Kelly and shot 43.2% from 3 last year and is shooting 63.2% so far this year (obviously, that's a sample size issue and won't last).

I agree with Steven43. Ryan is an overrated 3-point shooter, but is underrated at the other aspects of the game. I'd like to see him put just slightly less focus on long range shooting.

Des Esseintes
11-21-2012, 03:58 PM
Your outlier theory works if you are only looking at Duhon's junior and senior seasons, in which at one point he was shooting 19% from three-point land. Granted, not good.

...

While his percentage from three for a season was never higher than 36%....

He was a streaky shooter, to be sure, and his low percentages were a bit deceiving I think due to the sheer distance in which Duhon loved to shoot the basketball – the amount of times he pulled up from 25 feet during his career made J.J. Redick’s shot selection look cautious...

God I loved Chris Duhon.

Loved Duhon, too. He was an excellent basketball player. What he was not--and your information proves this conclusively--was a good shooter.

Des Esseintes
11-21-2012, 04:03 PM
Percentages aren't everything. Remember back when silly people used to argue that Salim Stoudemire was a better 3-point shooter than JJ Redick because he had a higher shooting percentage? As a point of comparison, Kentucky's Kyle Wiltjer is a reasonably similar player to Kelly and shot 43.2% from 3 last year and is shooting 63.2% so far this year (obviously, that's a sample size issue and won't last).

I agree with Steven43. Ryan is an overrated 3-point shooter, but is underrated at the other aspects of the game. I'd like to see him put just slightly less focus on long range shooting.

Right, but wrong as Stoudemire's backers were, I don't think anyone would argue he wasn't actually an excellent three-point shooter. JJ was just better, which is to say otherworldly. Fact is, it's hard to hit 40% from three for a season taking the shot in any sort of volume. If you can do it, you are a good long-distance shooter. Ryan shot enough threes last year for the percentage to be meaningful.

Cameron
11-21-2012, 07:21 PM
Loved Duhon, too. He was an excellent basketball player. What he was not--and your information proves this conclusively--was a good shooter.

Taking into account the degree of difficulty of many of Duhon's shots -- I'd wager that almost half of them were from no closer than 22 feet and many originating from transition pull-up situations where he would stop and pop on a dime from the invisible volleyball line -- his roughly 36% shooting from three-point land as a freshman and sophomore was in my view actually pretty good. Not Seth Curry good -- then again Seth doesn't have as much range as Duhon and doesn't shoot from as far out -- but 36% isn't dismal, not when considering the kind of chances Duhon often took. And that extended range made him extraordinarily tough to guard, forcing the opposing team to really overextend its defense and opening up the inside for penetration.

By the time he was a junior, I completely agree, Duhon's shot had become so erratic that it was pretty much unrecognizable. I'm not exactly sure what transpired over that period of time that caused such a dangerous outside shooter once upon a time to experience such a spontaneous, dramatic drop-off in quality -- I mean, 19% shooting from beyond the arc is entering Shaquille O'Neal territory -- but I liken it to a pitcher in baseball who has suddenly lost all control of his throwing faculties and begun to spiral deep into a black hole of ineptitude, and can find no way out. A phenomenon they call in the Major Leagues as being possessed by "The Creature." It led to the end of Rick Ankiel's career as a left-hander. It's really a fascinating case, what happened to Duhon. He just seemingly fell into a slump that he could never psychologically dig his way back out of.

Kedsy
11-21-2012, 08:04 PM
...his roughly 36% shooting from three-point land as a freshman and sophomore was in my view actually pretty good.

Duhon shot 36% as a freshman but I don't know if I'd call the 34.0% he shot as a sophomore (on 159 three-point shots) as "roughly 36%."

And even if his low percentage was because he shot from too far out, I'd argue shot selection and knowing your range is part of being a good shooter. In my mind Chris Duhon was an adequate shooter his freshman year, a barely adequate one his sophomore year and a dismal one his junior and senior years. The idea that he won the McDonald three-point contest sort of proves how hollow that distinction really is.

Cameron
11-21-2012, 09:16 PM
Duhon shot 36% as a freshman but I don't know if I'd call the 34.0% he shot as a sophomore (on 159 three-point shots) as "roughly 36%."

And even if his low percentage was because he shot from too far out, I'd argue shot selection and knowing your range is part of being a good shooter. In my mind Chris Duhon was an adequate shooter his freshman year, a barely adequate one his sophomore year and a dismal one his junior and senior years. The idea that he won the McDonald three-point contest sort of proves how hollow that distinction really is.

I used the phrase "roughly 36%" as a sort of average of his first two years in college shooting the three. Chris shot 35% during those seasons, to be accurate. But point noted.

I am not wavering on my stance that Duhon was overall a very good three-point shooter early on, though. He shot from so far out because he could shoot from out there better than the majority of college players -- there aren't many college players, even the best of shooters, who can routinely hit 25-foot shots in game action. The way I look at it, and I had coaches tell me this growing up, if you are shooting NBA range shots and deeper, you better be able to hit greater than 33% of them (1 out of 3) or not shoot them at all. Chris Duhon, as frosh and sophomore, could consistently make 1 out of 3 from NBA range and that type of range, as I said earlier, really helped spread out our offense and made it so much easier for guys like Jason Williams to get to the bucket. That's part of what made Williams and Duhon the 1 and 1(A) guards in the country in 2001-02, their incredible ability to stretch the floor.

I know others here have to remember how impressive Duhon's range was. I can't be the only one who couldn't wait to see him shoot those kind of shots each game. He was a very exciting player those first two years.

Kedsy
11-21-2012, 09:38 PM
I know others here have to remember how impressive Duhon's range was. I can't be the only one who couldn't wait to see him shoot those kind of shots each game. He was a very exciting player those first two years.

Chris Duhon was a great guard for Duke. Frankly, I think he was an exciting player all four years. And I do remember him taking some long shots. I can't say I shared your enthusiasm when he did, however. Personally, I prefer shot selection that has a better chance to consistently end up through the basket. Perhaps that's just me.

Des Esseintes
11-21-2012, 10:18 PM
Chris Duhon was a great guard for Duke. Frankly, I think he was an exciting player all four years. And I do remember him taking some long shots. I can't say I shared your enthusiasm when he did, however. Personally, I prefer shot selection that has a better chance to consistently end up through the basket. Perhaps that's just me.

This is where I'm at, too. Excellent as he was--and grateful as I am for the impressive overall growth he showed in his four years at Duke--he could have been even better minus the long-range hubris. I remember when we'd be in Cameron pregame watching warmups, a friend of mine would be driven crazy watching Duhon almost attempt nothing but trick shots. He had this bit where he'd put an extreme amount of arc on the ball just to see if he could make it that style. Other times, he would toss it at the rim with a bizarre sidespin. Everyone else was taking standard jumpshots, practicing back-to-the-basket moves, running layups--stuff that actually gets used in the game. The whole thing was pretty strange, to be honest, for a guy who struggled to make an average rate of threes. It felt a little like Crash Davis's advice to Nuke in Bull Durham: when you win 20 in The Show, you can do anything you want, and people will call you colorful. Until you win 20 in The Show...