Mason Plumlee draft stock

[rhcpflea99]

http://zagsblog.com/articles/the-mason-plumlee-conundrum/#more-83217

Hard not to believe Mason is not lottery pick.

[jimrowe0]

That was a good read. He makes a lot of valid points which I agree with especially about lack of confidence. Mason has a chance this year to show what he can do and I feel confident he will.

[Olympic Fan]

http://zagsblog.com/articles/the-mason-plumlee-conundrum/#more-83217

Hard not to believe Mason is not lottery pick.

I don't quite understand the premise of the article. Mason was a projected as a first-round pick and possible lottery pick after his freshman season when he averaged 3.7 ppg and 3.1 rpg off the bench.

His stock actually dropped a bit after he failed to take off after his sophomore year -- in both 2011 and 2012 he was projected as a late first-round pick both years. I think the fact that his brother was picked late in the first round suggests that Mason would have fone somewhat earlier if he had come out.

Yes, it's looking like Mason is solidifying his stock as a lottery pick this season, but it's not like that's such as surprise that NBA GMs would be stunned ... he's a guy they had their eyes on for a long, long time.

[hq2]

Hard to say where Mason will go. After last December, looked like he was a 5 to 15 range pick, but he kind of faded later in the
season. He's started strong this year too, but maybe with Quinn Cook to get him the ball some, he'll keep his production up. I'm thinking he makes the top 10 by end of the year. Be nice to see him make some AA teams too (which I think he can and will).

[JasonEvans]

Folks,

Lets be clear about Mason's draft stock. He is a senior and it is getting pretty darn rare for a senior to be a lottery pick.


In 2012 - the highest senior to be drafted was Tyler Zeller at #17
In 2011 - Jimmer went at #10, the only senior in the lottery. Nolan was the next senior taken, at #21
In 2010 - Clemson's Trevor Booker was the first senior taken in the draft, at #23
In 2009 - Louisville's Terrence Williams went #11 and Hanbrough went #13, two seniors in the lottery. Quite unusual.
In 2008 - Rider's Jason Thompson went #13.
In 2007 - The Hawks took Acie Law at #11.

Are you starting to get the picture? Seniors just don't go in the top 10 anymore. Heck, we only get a senior in the first half of the first round about two-thirds of the time.

So, when folks start talking about Mason being a top 10 pick, we all need to understand how unlikely that is for him. Yes, he is playing well so far this season and looks like he has added some real offensive aggression and versatility to his game. It is early but it is likely that he has improved his draft stock (which was probably late first round a year ago and late first round coming into this season). I think there is a decent chance, right now, that he could go in the high teens or early 20s.

But, folks projecting him in the lottery need to take their Duke blinders off. He is not at that level yet -- not for a kid who is now in his 4th year in college and who no longer has much of any "potential" left to boost his stock.

-Jason "by the way, look at how all those drafted seniors have done in the NBA... ain't a lot of incentive for teams to draft seniors, is there?" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

-Jason "by the way, look at how all those drafted seniors have done in the NBA... ain't a lot of incentive for teams to draft seniors, is there?" Evans

More importantly, isn't this motivation for players to leave before their senior year? That is just a poor crop of NBA talent (and I know Nolan, my favorite Duke player of all time, is on that list. But he can't compete well in the NBA, it looks like).

Mason will be fine. He'll be a great high energy in the NBA.

[uh_no]

http://zagsblog.com/articles/the-mason-plumlee-conundrum/#more-83217

Hard not to believe Mason is not lottery pick.

we have two games of data vs 3 years of data.

If he continues to play at the level he has the first two games, he'll go lottery. His game translates better to the NBA, I think, than does hanstravels.

if he doesn't play up to that level, and comes down slightly, even if he improved from last year, he'll be mid to late first round.

Either way, we only have a small sample size from this year to go on

[-bdbd]

http://zagsblog.com/articles/the-mason-plumlee-conundrum/#more-83217

Hard not to believe Mason is not lottery pick.

Man, if he keeps this up he might actually go pro after this year! I thought many on these boards wanted him to do not-quite-good-enough-to-go-pro, no?

Oh, wait..... :rolleyes:



P.S. I'm with Jason on this, as the Association seems inclined to draft on "potential" and "upside," over experience and proven production. Would love to see Mason have a spectacular season - which would certainly bode well for Duke too - and break that trend of no Seniors in the top-10. But that may be a steep hill to climb.

[sporthenry]

Folks,

Lets be clear about Mason's draft stock. He is a senior and it is getting pretty darn rare for a senior to be a lottery pick.


In 2012 - the highest senior to be drafted was Tyler Zeller at #17
In 2011 - Jimmer went at #10, the only senior in the lottery. Nolan was the next senior taken, at #21
In 2010 - Clemson's Trevor Booker was the first senior taken in the draft, at #23
In 2009 - Louisville's Terrence Williams went #11 and Hanbrough went #13, two seniors in the lottery. Quite unusual.
In 2008 - Rider's Jason Thompson went #13.
In 2007 - The Hawks took Acie Law at #11.


-Jason "by the way, look at how all those drafted seniors have done in the NBA... ain't a lot of incentive for teams to draft seniors, is there?" Evans

Well to play devil's advocate or I guess angel's advocate I'd point out the seniors who have done fairly well.

2012 - Too early to tell so far who will be good
2011 - Faried (anyone who has a nickname must be good, right?), Singler, Cole, M. Brooks
2010 - Vasquez and Landry Fields have been good and Pondexter is starting to come on
2009 - Hansbrough (has been pretty good), Maynor, Collison, Toney Douglas, Dejuan Blair and Danny Green
2008 - Hibbert and Courtney Lee
2007 - Jared Dudley, Carl Landry, and Aaron Brooks

Of course some guys like Cole and Marshon Brooks is a bit too early to tell but that can be said of most players in the draft class and for the most part as the draft classes get older, more players obviously become better. The problem with seniors is that after 4 years, they don't have that much potential left. That doesn't mean they won' be good but NBA GM's like potential. Heck Rivers went 10th while John Jenkins went 23. I think we can all agree that Jenkins is better than Rivers at this moment and 5 years from now Rivers could be good or out of the league.

There is a certain stigma of drafting a senior but I would say that they actually provide value in the draft. Of course this does the actual player no good since he wants more money but by being drafted later he is also going to a better organization and everyone knows it is the 2nd or 3rd paycheck (if they even get that far) that pays more than the first. However, there is a curse to going to a better organization in that they won't have as much PT available especially right away. Danny Green is just starting to come on and Blair still gets put in the doghouse, meanwhile you think Rivers would see the floor on a Spurs or Heat team.

The good thing for Mason is that he provides more potential than the actual senior as shown by his brother being drafted so high. He also has a full year ahead of him as being the focal point of a top 5 -10 team's offense which many seniors just don't have. So he'll be like a Hansbrough except scouts will see his skills translate to the NBA much more.

Seniors don't get drafted top 5 b/c teams are swinging for the fences looking for that all-NBA talent not rotation guys (there is a reason these teams are in the top 5 of the draft). People forget that there can only be so many all-stars and in the NBA where turnover is less than college, it is harder to crack the Superstar ranks when Lebron, Durant, and Rose will be studs for the foreseeable future. So of course you aren't going to have a surefire All-Star sit in college for 4 years, he'll get bored so everyone will look at All-Stars and see they were drafted as freshmen. Of course that fails to mention the countless more types like Beasley, Conley Jr., Tyrus Thomas, Daniel Orton, etc.

With all that said, I'd predict Mason will be drafted anywhere from 8-20 when all is said and done. And the fact that some mocks have Cauley-Stein, the backup to the guy Mason abused, ahead of Mason tells me all I need to know about mock drafts/NBA GM's.

[Kedsy]

Well to play devil's advocate or I guess angel's advocate I'd point out the seniors who have done fairly well.

2012 - Too early to tell so far who will be good
2011 - Faried (anyone who has a nickname must be good, right?), Singler, Cole, M. Brooks
2010 - Vasquez and Landry Fields have been good and Pondexter is starting to come on
2009 - Hansbrough (has been pretty good), Maynor, Collison, Toney Douglas, Dejuan Blair and Danny Green
2008 - Hibbert and Courtney Lee
2007 - Jared Dudley, Carl Landry, and Aaron Brooks

Well, Dejuan Blair left after his sophomore season, so he doesn't really prove your point at all. Not sure if any of the others on your list left early or not.

[JNort]

Well to play devil's advocate or I guess angel's advocate I'd point out the seniors who have done fairly well.

2012 - Too early to tell so far who will be good
2011 - Faried (anyone who has a nickname must be good, right?), Singler, Cole, M. Brooks
2010 - Vasquez and Landry Fields have been good and Pondexter is starting to come on
2009 - Hansbrough (has been pretty good), Maynor, Collison, Toney Douglas, Dejuan Blair and Danny Green
2008 - Hibbert and Courtney Lee
2007 - Jared Dudley, Carl Landry, and Aaron Brooks

Of course some guys like Cole and Marshon Brooks is a bit too early to tell but that can be said of most players in the draft class and for the most part as the draft classes get older, more players obviously become better. The problem with seniors is that after 4 years, they don't have that much potential left. That doesn't mean they won' be good but NBA GM's like potential. Heck Rivers went 10th while John Jenkins went 23. I think we can all agree that Jenkins is better than Rivers at this moment and 5 years from now Rivers could be good or out of the league.

There is a certain stigma of drafting a senior but I would say that they actually provide value in the draft. Of course this does the actual player no good since he wants more money but by being drafted later he is also going to a better organization and everyone knows it is the 2nd or 3rd paycheck (if they even get that far) that pays more than the first. However, there is a curse to going to a better organization in that they won't have as much PT available especially right away. Danny Green is just starting to come on and Blair still gets put in the doghouse, meanwhile you think Rivers would see the floor on a Spurs or Heat team.

The good thing for Mason is that he provides more potential than the actual senior as shown by his brother being drafted so high. He also has a full year ahead of him as being the focal point of a top 5 -10 team's offense which many seniors just don't have. So he'll be like a Hansbrough except scouts will see his skills translate to the NBA much more.

Seniors don't get drafted top 5 b/c teams are swinging for the fences looking for that all-NBA talent not rotation guys (there is a reason these teams are in the top 5 of the draft). People forget that there can only be so many all-stars and in the NBA where turnover is less than college, it is harder to crack the Superstar ranks when Lebron, Durant, and Rose will be studs for the foreseeable future. So of course you aren't going to have a surefire All-Star sit in college for 4 years, he'll get bored so everyone will look at All-Stars and see they were drafted as freshmen. Of course that fails to mention the countless more types like Beasley, Conley Jr., Tyrus Thomas, Daniel Orton, etc.

With all that said, I'd predict Mason will be drafted anywhere from 8-20 when all is said and done. And the fact that some mocks have Cauley-Stein, the backup to the guy Mason abused, ahead of Mason tells me all I need to know about mock drafts/NBA GM's.


And I would also say that none of those guys are good. They are all around average or in some cases good role players. Farried is the only one you might have an argument for. O forgot about Collison

[Kedsy]

And I would also say that none of those guys are good. They are all around average or in some cases good role players. Farried is the only one you might have an argument for

Hibbert's pretty good, and several of the others on his list are solid NBA players. Putting that aside, though, I think we're dealing with a chicken and egg issue. These days, the vast majority of future NBA players who stay four years in college do so because they have a flaw that will keep them from being drafted as high as they wish. Most of them are good basketball players but are not off-the-chart athletes, or they're tweeners (size-wise) in the pros. Those flaws can't really be fixed. If they're not great athletes or they're not the right size to play defense in the NBA, that generally translates into not being a great player in the League.

Mason, however, is a great athlete and is the right size to play PF in the NBA. His flaw has been his head, and unlike a lack of size or athletic ability, that can be fixed. If he shows maturity, good decision making, and killer instinct this season (in other words, shows his flaw is fixed), then the seniors of the recent past aren't very good precedent and shouldn't be particularly predictive of Mason's draft stock.

[sporthenry]

Well, Dejuan Blair left after his sophomore season, so he doesn't really prove your point at all. Not sure if any of the others on your list left early or not.

That is correct. For some reason I always thought he left after his senior year, probably b/c Sam Young was on the same team but I believe all the others are correct.

And I will nitpick about Mason being a PF in the NBA. I think he'll be the PF/C tweener but in a good way. Mason is 6'11" and the biggest player in the 2011 draft was 6'11" and some change in Vucevich. Mason can form a formidable front line like the Sixers with Hawes/Bynum or Lakers with Howard/Gasol the only problem is Mason isn't a stretch 4 and has very limited range. But I think Mason can hold his own as a C in the league. He many not be as strong as Howard but he is still a freak specimen and what he lacks in size against the likes of a Gortat or Hibbert he can make up with in his athleticism.

[JNort]

Hibbert's pretty good, and several of the others on his list are solid NBA players.

Yeah I some how didn't see Hibbert either. I wasn't saying they wern't solid NBA players, I was saying they wern't great NBA players. Those guys are certainly great role players but average NBA players (Save for Hibbert, Farried, Collison)

[gumbomoop]

Mason, however, is a great athlete and is the right size to play PF in the NBA. His flaw has been his head, and unlike a lack of size or athletic ability, that can be fixed.

I may be alone in thinking this, but I've thought for 3 years that his biggest problem was lousy footwork. Somewhere on one or more ancient threads several of us had a discussion of how Mason doesn't [didn't?] move well when things get crowded in the lane. Give him enough space and his athleticism shines through; crowd him and his play becomes, to quote the estimable Wheat, "bulky."

When I saw Mason in HS all-star skills competitions and games, spring 2009, I thought, there's the guy who will get Duke to the Final Four in spring 2010. I didn't expect the big big to be Zoubek.

IMO, Mason's footwork did finally improve some last season, and looks even better this season. Further, if his footwork has actually improved, a lot, I'll guess that after a nice play he'll lope back to D with the same, mostly inexpressive, look on his face as always, but that his head will have been fixed, by his feet.

Or, seriously, maybe they'll have fixed each other.

[Kedsy]

Yeah I some how didn't see Hibbert either. I wasn't saying they wern't solid NBA players, I was saying they wern't great NBA players. Those guys are certainly great role players but average NBA players (Save for Hibbert, Farried, Collison)

Well, here's the thing. If we're talking about picks 11 through 23 (the range for the seniors we're discussing), you just don't get great NBA players, period.

Here's the list of #11 through #23 for the last five drafts:

2012
-----
11 - Meyers Leonard
12 - Jeremy Lamb
13 - Kendall Marshall
14 - John Henson
15 - Moe Harkless
16 - Royce White
17 - Tyler Zeller
18 - Terrance Jones
19 - Andrew Nicholson
20 - Evan Fournier
21 - Jared Sullinger
22 - Fab Melo
23 - John Jenkins

Good to great NBA players: None

2011
-----
11 - Klay Thompson
12 - Alec Burks
13 - Markieff Morris
14 - Marcus Morris
15 - Kawhi Leonard
16 - Nikola Vucevic
17 - Iman Shumpert
18 - Chris Singleton
19 - Tobias Harris
20 - Donatas Motiejunas
21 - Nolan Smith
22 - Kenneth Faried
23 -Nikola Mirotic

Good to great NBA players: Leonard, Faried (SR), Thompson

2010
-----
11 - Cole Aldrich
12 - Xavier Henry
13 - Ed Davis
14 - Patrick Patterson
15 - Larry Sanders
16 - Luke Babbitt
17 - Kevin Seraphin
18 - Eric Bledsoe
19 - Avery Bradley
20 - James Anderson
21 - Craig Brackins
22 - Elliot Williams
23 - Trevor Booker

Good to great NBA players: none

2009
-----
11 - Terrance Williams
12 - Gerald Henderson
13 - Tyler Hansbrough
14 - Earl Clark
15 - Austin Daye
16 - James Johnson
17 - Jrue Holiday
18 - Ty Lawson
19 - Jeff Teague
20 - Eric Maynor
21 - Darren Collison
22 - Victor Claver
23 - Omri Casspi

Good to great NBA players: Holiday, Lawson, Teague, Collison (SR)

2008
-----
11 - Jerryd Bayless
12 - Jason Thompson
13 - Brandon Rush
14 - Anthony Randolph
15 - Robin Lopez
16 - Mareese Speights
17 - Roy Hibbert
18 - JaVale McGee
19 - JJ Hickson
20 - Alexis Ajinca
21 - Ryan Anderson
22 - Courtney Lee
23 - Kosta Koufos

Good to great NBA players: Hibbert (SR)


So, by my count, in the last five drafts there have been eight "good to great" NBA players taken between #11 and #23, and three of those eight were seniors (37.5%). Considering how few NBA quality players stay until their senior years, that sounds pretty good to me. So I disagree with Jason's point that NBA teams don't have incentive to draft seniors. If the senior is good enough he has as good a chance (or better) as anyone of similar talent who isn't a senior.

[Kedsy]

Or, seriously, maybe they'll have fixed each other.

You may be right. But no matter what Mason's "flaw" has been, my point is it can be fixed. That isn't the case with most kids with NBA talent who stay through their senior year. And the few whose flaws could be fixed (e.g., Hibbert, Faried) in hindsight would probably have justified being taken in the lottery (if someone had been smart enough to spend a lottery pick on them).

[sporthenry]

Yeah I some how didn't see Hibbert either. I wasn't saying they wern't solid NBA players, I was saying they wern't great NBA players. Those guys are certainly great role players but average NBA players (Save for Hibbert, Farried, Collison)

Well people seem to overrate Hibbert a bit since he was a starting C on the All Star team. He is good but I'd add some more on there like Carl Landry averaging 15.4 and 7.8, Vasquez averagin 12.3, 8.8, and 4.2 who are putting up some better than average numbers. And then you even have guys like Danny Green averaging 11.3 or even Brooks who is still averaging 8.3 points/game. Brooks averaged 12.6 last year and I'm sure he'll be a nice SG in the NBA in the future.

But the original point is who do we consider great? 20 guys? 30 guys? There aren't many. Yes, they won't be seniors but that also doesn't consider how many Eddie Griffin, Eddy Curry, Rodney White types. All those guys were taken around Battier. Battier may not be as good as Pau, Tyson, Tony Parker or Zack Randolph but he has proven better than most of the early entrants.

With 30 guys as being seen as All-Pro, that is about 2-5 guys in the draft for the past 10 years. That isn't a lot and every year you'll have Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving to be that guy. But nobody is proposing Mason go top 5. The question is why doesn't he got top 10-15? Teams are looking for the lottery ticket in the mid-lottery even though upperclassmen on the whole seem to provide more value.

[English]

There has been a lot said that I agree with and a few that I find fault with, but I think a couple of things haven't been said. First, GMs also consider ticket sales in addition to a skewed inclination toward potential. Having a guy with the possibility to be a big fan draw certainly helps. Mason doesn't have a great deal of that. Second, how Miles does in his role could have an interesting effect on Mason's perceived stock. Understanding that Miles is not likely to sniff much burn his first year, he will be involved in team practices and may get limited run. GMs talk to each other and, although Mason and Miles aren't mirrors of each other, they share some of the same strengths that franchises looks for--athleticism, rebounding, ups, etc-- and similar weaknesses--confidence/hoops IQ. Mason has a more refined O game while Miles has/had the rebounding edge. Just my own opinion. I remember when NYK shocked the world and drafted Renaldo Balkman in the first round (I liken this to a Miles-type roll of the dice, although Balkman went higher), so clearly NBA GMs aren't a breed known for avoiding decisions that have burned them in the past.

[FerryFor50]

I'd suspect Mason would get drafted earlier than Miles did. 11-18 is where I'd suspect he'd go, depending on which early entries are in the draft.

[hq2]

I'd suspect Mason would get drafted earlier than Miles did. 11-18 is where I'd suspect he'd go, depending on which early entries are in the draft.

Sounds about right. Miles went at 26, and the Pacers seem to like him (still a little early) and
Mason is clearly better. I think the pro teams would be fools to leave him up there longer than 15; he's
too good a player for that, regardless of the fact that he is a 4 year player. Both his athletic ability and basketball skills are too great to be passed over.

[westwall]

-- tonight, at half time of the BYU/ FSU game, a rep of Draft Express was interviewed and was asked about this year's seniors. He mentioned only a player from Lehigh, Seth and Mason. He spoke highly of Seth, and said that Mason has raised his stock, having "dominated" Noel in the Kentucky game.

[hq2]

-- tonight, at half time of the BYU/ FSU game, a rep of Draft Express was interviewed and was asked about this year's seniors. He mentioned only a player from Lehigh, Seth and Mason. He spoke highly of Seth, and said that Mason has raised his stock, having "dominated" Noel in the Kentucky game.

Until this year, I didn't really see Seth as an NBA player; didn't quite think he had the height
or the athleticism to make it. Now, I'm not sure. The way he's playing now, he might make it;
he's improved his overall game to the point where he may get some serious consideration. Still not sure
about his defense; not that tall, and doesn't have great lateral quickness. We'll see.

[JNort]

Until this year, I didn't really see Seth as an NBA player; didn't quite think he had the height
or the athleticism to make it. Now, I'm not sure. The way he's playing now, he might make it;
he's improved his overall game to the point where he may get some serious consideration. Still not sure
about his defense; not that tall, and doesn't have great lateral quickness. We'll see.


See Mike Bibby. Teams always can use a could 3pt shooter who is a good team player.

[JasonEvans]

-- tonight, at half time of the BYU/ FSU game, a rep of Draft Express was interviewed and was asked about this year's seniors. He mentioned only a player from Lehigh, Seth and Mason. He spoke highly of Seth, and said that Mason has raised his stock, having "dominated" Noel in the Kentucky game.

The Lehigh player is CJ McCollum, someone with whom Duke is intimately familiar. He's likely to be a real rarity, a senior who goes in the lottery.

I would expect senior Kansas center Jeff Withey to be a likely first rounder as well. You can't teach height and Withey is pretty mobile and active for a big fella too.

-Jason "I think Seth still had a good bit of work to do to be a first round draft pick -- he is not a PG and doesn't have NBA 2-guard size" Evans

[hq2]

See Mike Bibby. Teams always can use a could 3pt shooter who is a good team player.

Bibby was always a pretty good distributor, an area where Seth has not yet excelled. If he could consistently
deliver the ball to the bigs as well as score, he might make it. Hard to say right now.

[JNort]

Bibby was always a pretty good distributor, an area where Seth has not yet excelled. If he could consistently
deliver the ball to the bigs as well as score, he might make it. Hard to say right now.

I just brought up Bibby to compare the height (Both are 6ft 2in) and the athleticism (Both are fairly comparable, but slight edge to Curry). However Curry has his brothers reputation to help him out, It may not be a big help but its something. You gotta think someone thinks he could be a decent role player to come off the bench and provide scoring.

[dukejim1]

Bibby always seemed quicker than Seth to me. I guess I rate Seth as below average in quickness and speed for his height and position and Bibby as average. Anyway, we are fortunate to have the improving Sr. on our team. Hope he stays healthy.