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Bob Green
11-07-2012, 07:35 PM
Phase 1 starts with the Georgia State game on Friday night and runs through the Ohio State game in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The marquee games will be against Kentucky on 11/13 and Ohio State on 11/28. Minnesota on 11/22 in the Bahamas is another tough game. The team and coaching staff are going to learn a lot about themselves during Phase 1.

Here are my thoughts on what we should be looking for during these early season games. If you agree with me, post and say so while adding additional thoughts. If you disagree with me, post and explain why I'm full of it. The bottom line is everyone needs to post their two cents so the conversation flows. It's November and time to talk Duke Basketball!

(1) Health: I strongly believe every Phase Report should start with health. The preseason injuries to Seth Curry and Marshall Plumlee reinforces this believe. With only eight scholarship players available, the team absolutely cannot afford another injury. The players are going to suffer bumps and bruises; however, a key factor to keep both your eyes upon during Phase 1 is team health.

(2) Renewed focus upon DEFENSE: Last season we struggled to defend the perimeter and a large part of those struggles were due to the absence of length at small forward or wing guard. This season we will move away from a 3-guard line-up toward a more traditional 3-forward line-up. The performance of Amile Jefferson (6'8") and Alex Murphy (6'8") at small forward will be the first key to the renewed focus upon DEFENSE. They looked good during the exhibition games, but will they continue to look good as the competition stiffens? The answer to that question will go a long way toward defining defensive success this season.

The second key will be the performance of Rasheed Sulaimon. A big part of perimeter defense is denial. Sulaimon must use his length and lateral quickness to be in position to deny his man the ball. Jon Scheyer was a master of denial defense and is a good example of who Sulaimon should work toward emulating.

The penultimate key will be Quinn Cook's ability to pressure the ball. Perimeter defense starts with pure harrassment of the opponent's primary ball handler. Cook's job is to harrass to the point the opponent makes mistakes such as throwing the ball away or dribbling away the shot clock resulting in a bad shot. Bad passes, rushed shots late in a possession and the opponent's point guard attempting to do too much are all potential positive results from harrassing pressure applied from the moment the ball handler crosses the half court line.

The final key is preventing second chance points. Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly must dominate the defensive glass. There is nothing more disheartening than a team playing intense defense for an entire possession only to see the opponent grab an offensive rebound and score. Amile Jefferson and Alex Murphy need to provide improved rebounding at the small forward position. Our wing guards were not successful rebounding the basketball last season.

If Duke is truly to have a renewed focus upon DEFENSE in 2012-13, we should see ample examples of the four key points listed above during Phase 1 games.

(3) Experience: Our experience has been dealt a blow by the injury to senior Seth Curry, but the blow is just to placing the experience onto the court. Curry is still 100 percent available in the locker room and on the sidelines to provide leadership to the younger players. This is a big deal. Curry must be in the ears of the youngsters explaining what needs to be happenning, who needs to be doing it, and how it needs to be done! He is a senior so it is time for him to take the bull by the horns and lead! With his unfortunate injury threatening to limit his ability to see the court, the leadership will have to take place in the locker room and on the sidelines. To be clear, Duke doesn't need Curry to be a cheerleader. Coach K and the team need Curry to be an "in-your-face" leader.

Seniors Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly are National Champions! They need to play like it.

(4) Outside shooting: Who is going to shoot the ball? Duke was a pitiful, allow me to repeat myself - PITIFUL 1-17 on 3-pointers against WSSU. With Curry sidelined, or at least limited, the onus falls upon Ryan Kelly, Rasheed Sulaimon and Quinn Cook to knock down the 3-pointers. The offense is going to look to run through Mason Plumlee inside but a key element for helping Plumlee get solid looks in the post is to stretch defenses with the long ball.

(5) Point Guard: I already talked about Quinn Cook's importance on the defensive end of the court, but his performance on offense is equally or possible more vital. Some folks (including me) say Duke has not had a true point guard since Chris Duhon graduated in 2004 (with the obvious exception of Kyrie Irving's 11 game career). Cook needs to step up and prove he can run the offense, distribute the ball and be Coach K's on court leader. Is Cook next in a long line of great Duke point guards? Will he become a part of discussions on Bob Verga, Dick Devenzio, Gary Melchionni, Tommy Amaker, Bobby Hurley, Steve Wojciekowski, William Avery, Jason Williams and Chris Duhon? Hopefully, the answer is an emphatic YES!

(6) Freshman Star: I firmly believe Duke needs one of the freshmen to step up and be a star. With only eight scholarship players 100 percent healthy and ready to go, and three of those eight being freshmen (Amile Jefferson, Alex Murphy & Rasheed Sulaimon) somebody is going to have to have a freshman season like JJ Redick had in 2003 or Kyle Singler had in 2008 or Grant Hill had in 1991. Will one of the freshmen rapidly develop into star? It's a good question that deserves discussing.

To be clear, I am not saying Sulaimon has to be the next Redick, or Murphy has to be the next Singler, or Jefferson has to be the next Hill. We all know there is no next Redick, Singler or Hill. I am simply stating one of the freshmen must be better than just good.

That's all folks! Thanks for reading my madness and please pipe in with your two cents or if you are so inclined give us a complete nickles worth of wisdom.

Kedsy
11-07-2012, 11:32 PM
Nice job, Bob. It's very exciting that the season is finally about to start. I have just a few comments to get discussion rolling.


Phase 1 starts with the Georgia State game on Friday night and runs through the Ohio State game in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The marquee games will be against Kentucky on 11/13 and Ohio State on 11/28. Minnesota on 11/22 in the Bahamas is another tough game. The team and coaching staff are going to learn a lot about themselves during Phase 1.

If we beat Minnesota, we have a chance to then play Memphis and then Louisville, right? Those would be marquee games as well, if they come to be.


(1) Health: I strongly believe every Phase Report should start with health. The preseason injuries to Seth Curry and Marshall Plumlee reinforces this believe. With only eight scholarship players available, the team absolutely cannot afford another injury. The players are going to suffer bumps and bruises; however, a key factor to keep both your eyes upon during Phase 1 is team health.

In some ways, I'm more concerned if Seth plays at less than 100% than if he doesn't play at all. A hobbling player can get the whole rotation out of whack, especially if our top shooter rolls out another 1 for 9 clunker. Obviously, Seth will need some time to get back into playing shape, but I'm not sure how I feel about trotting him out there before he's fully healed.


(2) Renewed focus upon DEFENSE: Last season we struggled to defend the perimeter and a large part of those struggles were due to the absence of length at small forward or wing guard. This season we will move away from a 3-guard line-up toward a more traditional 3-forward line-up. The performance of Amile Jefferson (6'8") and Alex Murphy (6'8") at small forward will be the first key to the renewed focus upon DEFENSE. They looked good during the exhibition games, but will they continue to look good as the competition stiffens? The answer to that question will go a long way toward defining defensive success this season.

Well, first of all, the reported starting lineup for our first game appears to be a three-guard lineup, so maybe we're not moving away from it. Presumably Alex and Amile will still see plenty of minutes at SF, even if neither of them starts. I'm very interested to see if Amile can guard top shelf, Division I SFs.


The second key will be the performance of Rasheed Sulaimon. A big part of perimeter defense is denial. Sulaimon must use his length and lateral quickness to be in position to deny his man the ball. Jon Scheyer was a master of denial defense and is a good example of who Sulaimon should work toward emulating.

The penultimate key will be Quinn Cook's ability to pressure the ball. Perimeter defense starts with pure harrassment of the opponent's primary ball handler. Cook's job is to harrass to the point the opponent makes mistakes such as throwing the ball away or dribbling away the shot clock resulting in a bad shot. Bad passes, rushed shots late in a possession and the opponent's point guard attempting to do too much are all potential positive results from harrassing pressure applied from the moment the ball handler crosses the half court line.

The final key is preventing second chance points. Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly must dominate the defensive glass. There is nothing more disheartening than a team playing intense defense for an entire possession only to see the opponent grab an offensive rebound and score. Amile Jefferson and Alex Murphy need to provide improved rebounding at the small forward position. Our wing guards were not successful rebounding the basketball last season.

If Duke is truly to have a renewed focus upon DEFENSE in 2012-13, we should see ample examples of the four key points listed above during Phase 1 games.

I agree Rasheed will be key to our hopefully resurgent defense, and that Quinn's improvement will be another key. To the extent that Rasheed plays SF, with Seth at SG, I think our D will look a lot different than it will with Rasheed at SG and Alex or Amile at SF. In that sense, Seth's D (especially while he's playing on a hurt leg) is just as important to our overall defensive performance as anyone's, and possibly more important.


(3) Experience: Our experience has been dealt a blow by the injury to senior Seth Curry, but the blow is just to placing the experience onto the court. Curry is still 100 percent available in the locker room and on the sidelines to provide leadership to the younger players. This is a big deal. Curry must be in the ears of the youngsters explaining what needs to be happenning, who needs to be doing it, and how it needs to be done! He is a senior so it is time for him to take the bull by the horns and lead! With his unfortunate injury threatening to limit his ability to see the court, the leadership will have to take place in the locker room and on the sidelines. To be clear, Duke doesn't need Curry to be a cheerleader. Coach K and the team need Curry to be an "in-your-face" leader.

Seniors Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly are National Champions! They need to play like it.

I agree Seth's leadership role is something to watch. The natural inclination when a player is hurt and/or not playing as well as he knows he can (because of injury or any other reason) is to withdraw a little. To be the leader you say he needs to be, Seth is going to have to fight against that natural tendency.


(4) Outside shooting: Who is going to shoot the ball? Duke was a pitiful, allow me to repeat myself - PITIFUL 1-17 on 3-pointers against WSSU. With Curry sidelined, or at least limited, the onus falls upon Ryan Kelly, Rasheed Sulaimon and Quinn Cook to knock down the 3-pointers. The offense is going to look to run through Mason Plumlee inside but a key element for helping Plumlee get solid looks in the post is to stretch defenses with the long ball.

Shooting threes has been a staple of Duke's offense for some time. But frankly, if Seth is not able to provide an outside presence I will be disappointed if we launch 17 threes very often. Ryan should be ready and willing to put up 3 to 5 three-pointers a game, but I don't think Rasheed or Quinn (or Tyler or any other non-Seth player on our team) should be taking that many. Against Winston Salem State, Rasheed put up five threes and Quinn took four, while Alex tried two. Rather than taking on the onus to shoot, I would argue all three of those players should have taken fewer long-range shots.


(5) Point Guard: I already talked about Quinn Cook's importance on the defensive end of the court, but his performance on offense is equally or possible more vital. Some folks (including me) say Duke has not had a true point guard since Chris Duhon graduated in 2004 (with the obvious exception of Kyrie Irving's 11 game career). Cook needs to step up and prove he can run the offense, distribute the ball and be Coach K's on court leader. Is Cook next in a long line of great Duke point guards? Will he become a part of discussions on Bob Verga, Dick Devenzio, Gary Melchionni, Tommy Amaker, Bobby Hurley, Steve Wojciekowski, William Avery, Jason Williams and Chris Duhon? Hopefully, the answer is an emphatic YES!

The fact that Quinn had so few assists in the two exhibitions is a bit of a red flag, although as several posters have documented elsewhere, he "lost" several assists because the player to whom Quinn passed the ball either was fouled or missed an easy shot. Still, four assists and nine turnovers against two Division II clubs could possibly be a cause for concern. Having said that, I won't be concerned unless the poor numbers continue in Phase 1.


(6) Freshman Star: I firmly believe Duke needs one of the freshmen to step up and be a star. With only eight scholarship players 100 percent healthy and ready to go, and three of those eight being freshmen (Amile Jefferson, Alex Murphy & Rasheed Sulaimon) somebody is going to have to have a freshman season like JJ Redick had in 2003 or Kyle Singler had in 2008 or Grant Hill had in 1991. Will one of the freshmen rapidly develop into star? It's a good question that deserves discussing.

To be clear, I am not saying Sulaimon has to be the next Redick, or Murphy has to be the next Singler, or Jefferson has to be the next Hill. We all know there is no next Redick, Singler or Hill. I am simply stating one of the freshmen must be better than just good.

That's all folks! Thanks for reading my madness and please pipe in with your two cents or if you are so inclined give us a complete nickles worth of wisdom.

Whether or not Duke needs this, I will be very surprised if any of our freshman become stars this year, or even "better than just good," as you put it. At least on offense. Rasheed could be a defensive star, but I don't think any of them will put up big offensive numbers or will be considered stars by most observers.

For one thing, none of our freshman project to be an offensive focal point, at least not for the next couple years. For another, when you have three senior stars, it's unlikely that a freshman can find enough opportunities to be a star. When Grant Hill was a freshman, our five most common starters included him plus three sophomores and a junior. The only senior of note was Greg Koubek. Plus, he was Grant Hill. When JJ was a freshman, the only seniors were Dahntay Jones and Casey Sanders, and the starting lineup included two freshman, a sophomore, and a junior. When Kyle was a freshman, we had just one senior, DeMarcus Nelson, and our top eight minute-getters included six guys who were either freshmen or sophomores. So it seems to me that with the veteran group we have this year, it's unrealistic to expect a non-top 10 freshman to come in and be a star.

Having said all that, I also disagree that we need any of them to be stars. Our seniors should be our stars and everyone else just needs to contribute strong defense and play good, smart fundamental basketball.

ncexnyc
11-08-2012, 12:25 AM
I'm with Kedsy on the 3 point shooting. Just because that was a staple of past teams doesn't mean it has to be that way now. Why try to be something you're not? If Quinn can slash to the basket on a consistent basis and feed our frontline for easy dunks and close in shots there's absolutely nothing wrong with that style of play. We've been hearing from Coach K all preseason how Mason could be one of the top players in the nation, let's put that claim to the test and let's feed the beast and see if he can in fact carry this team. For years we've whined about not having a scoring frontline. Now that we finally have what appears to be such a group of players why not try to exploit this to our advantage. It's always been said that Coach K adapts his style of play to the players he has available. I think this is just such a situation.

superdave
11-08-2012, 08:02 AM
(6) Freshman Star: I firmly believe Duke needs one of the freshmen to step up and be a star. With only eight scholarship players 100 percent healthy and ready to go, and three of those eight being freshmen (Amile Jefferson, Alex Murphy & Rasheed Sulaimon) somebody is going to have to have a freshman season like JJ Redick had in 2003 or Kyle Singler had in 2008 or Grant Hill had in 1991. Will one of the freshmen rapidly develop into star? It's a good question that deserves discussing.

To be clear, I am not saying Sulaimon has to be the next Redick, or Murphy has to be the next Singler, or Jefferson has to be the next Hill. We all know there is no next Redick, Singler or Hill. I am simply stating one of the freshmen must be better than just good.


I have had a good sense of anticipation the past year about Rasheed. If he is the defensive catalyst for us, then he's a big enough star for this team after our defense last year. Coach K seems to have confidence in Rasheed for defense.

On the offensive end, he could be the one guy who scores easy fast break points for use, so there's a bucket or two a game that he can generate for himself with steals, run outs etc. I do not think we'll see a consistent jumper out of him, but we likely need him to drive to the hole with some consistency. If he can create for himself off the drive, he'll be able to create for the rest of the team with dumpoffs to bigs and kickouts to shooters.

We dont need Rasheed to be a star, but everything he learns to do consistently well makes this team a step better. He's a really good athlete at a position of need for us and will play enough minutes to have a large effect on our defense. I'm very optimistic about him. Cant wait to see him tomorrow.

tele
11-08-2012, 02:14 PM
Looks to be a challenging stretch of games. Three things I would look toward are: ball pressure, both how duke applies it to opposing teamss' guards and how it handles it on Duke's guards. Foul trouble, without Curry, Duke was only eight deep. If Curry is at full strength this may not be as much of a concern, unless it is Mason or Kelly in foul trouble. Three point shooting has already been discussed, I think they'll probably shoot more not less of them and hopefully at a good percentage. As the competition picks up experience helps a bit more and Tyler and Josh may figure in more extensively. If Duke can avoid foul trouble and knock down a few threes, they will be tough to beat. In a foul fest or with some questionable calls, may be a tougher road, but still good experience for conference play.

OldSchool
11-08-2012, 04:23 PM
Pick and Roll

I would like to see in Phase 1 signs that one or more of our guards will be able to run the pick and roll with Mason and Ryan this year better than our guards were able to do last year.

With Mason in particular we have a potentially devastating offensive weapon on the pick-and-roll. If all we do is feed him with entry passes on the low post we will be wasting Mason's potential IMO. On the high post, we need to make use of him more than just a dribble screen.

Austin was the most effective guard for us last year in this respect but his passing skills unfortunately were a work-in-progress. Seth was next in line in effectiveness in this play.

I am hoping Quinn will be effective in this role. Also, with Seth's injury, an opportunity will be there for Rasheed. Rasheed has a surprisingly good handle and some slashing moves. Can he pass well in the pick-and-roll? We now know that if a talented freshman proves himself K will give him plenty of playing time.

pfrduke
11-08-2012, 04:42 PM
If we beat Minnesota, we have a chance to then play Memphis and then Louisville, right? Those would be marquee games as well, if they come to be.

Correct. If seeding holds (and we do our job), it's Memphis in round 2 and Louisville in the finals. There are 5 potentially tough to really tough games in the first set of 7, with Kentucky, Minnesota, Memphis, Louisville, and Ohio State (if that's what it turns out to be). Louisville, Kentucky, and OSU are 2, 3, 4 in the AP and coaches polls and 8, 1, 2 in the Pomeroy rankings. Memphis is 17/16/16 (AP, coaches, Pomeroy) while Minnesota is 30/34/26. That's a killer opening stretch.

Also at stake in Atlantis is our rather remarkable streak of 5 straight pre-season tournament championships. We haven't lost since Marquette in the finals of the 2006 CBE Classic. Like last year in Maui, given the slate that's down in the Bahamas coming out on top would be an impressive achievement.

sagegrouse
11-08-2012, 05:06 PM
Bob -- Great work as always. I might add another topic --

(7) All-American. Will Duke have a player step up and play like an All-American? Scheyer did in 2010. Nolan did the following season. Duke has never contended for a national championship without a player who, that year or the next, contends for All-American or, at least, ACC POY. Ryan, Mason and Seth -- stardom awaits! Carpe diem!

sage/ Gary

Saratoga2
11-08-2012, 06:52 PM
Phase 1 starts with the Georgia State game on Friday night and runs through the Ohio State game in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The marquee games will be against Kentucky on 11/13 and Ohio State on 11/28. Minnesota on 11/22 in the Bahamas is another tough game. The team and coaching staff are going to learn a lot about themselves during Phase 1.

Here are my thoughts on what we should be looking for during these early season games. If you agree with me, post and say so while adding additional thoughts. If you disagree with me, post and explain why I'm full of it. The bottom line is everyone needs to post their two cents so the conversation flows. It's November and time to talk Duke Basketball!

(1) Health: I strongly believe every Phase Report should start with health. The preseason injuries to Seth Curry and Marshall Plumlee reinforces this believe. With only eight scholarship players available, the team absolutely cannot afford another injury. The players are going to suffer bumps and bruises; however, a key factor to keep both your eyes upon during Phase 1 is team health. You are right, the team cannot even afford the injuries it already has. Marshall is really needed now to bolster the inside defense and offense while Curry is needed for his scoring and senior leadership. We are going into the season on a non-optimum basis and absolutely cannot afford further injuries without the expectation of defeats, even against lesser teams.

(2) Renewed focus upon DEFENSE: Last season we struggled to defend the perimeter and a large part of those struggles were due to the absence of length at small forward or wing guard. This season we will move away from a 3-guard line-up toward a more traditional 3-forward line-up. The performance of Amile Jefferson (6'8") and Alex Murphy (6'8") at small forward will be the first key to the renewed focus upon DEFENSE. They looked good during the exhibition games, but will they continue to look good as the competition stiffens? The answer to that question will go a long way toward defining defensive success this season.We should be miles ahead of last year, having two large and mobile small forwards. We will have to wait and see how they stack up defensively against the better teams, but it looks like it will be better than last year.

The second key will be the performance of Rasheed Sulaimon. A big part of perimeter defense is denial. Sulaimon must use his length and lateral quickness to be in position to deny his man the ball. Jon Scheyer was a master of denial defense and is a good example of who Sulaimon should work toward emulating. Very encouraged with the defensive play of Rasheed. He though will share time with a Seth who may not regain his best form for some time.

The penultimate key will be Quinn Cook's ability to pressure the ball. Perimeter defense starts with pure harrassment of the opponent's primary ball handler. Cook's job is to harrass to the point the opponent makes mistakes such as throwing the ball away or dribbling away the shot clock resulting in a bad shot. Bad passes, rushed shots late in a possession and the opponent's point guard attempting to do too much are all potential positive results from harrassing pressure applied from the moment the ball handler crosses the half court line. I think it is worth mentioning that Tyler is capable of pressuring the opponents PG and he will share time with Quinn. Lets hope they are consistent in that ability

The final key is preventing second chance points. Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly must dominate the defensive glass. There is nothing more disheartening than a team playing intense defense for an entire possession only to see the opponent grab an offensive rebound and score. Amile Jefferson and Alex Murphy need to provide improved rebounding at the small forward position. Our wing guards were not successful rebounding the basketball last season.We will miss Miles in that regaard as he developed that ability late in his career at Duke. When Marshall becomes available, we should have fresh bodies to mess up the opponents inside game.

If Duke is truly to have a renewed focus upon DEFENSE in 2012-13, we should see ample examples of the four key points listed above during Phase 1 games.

(3) Experience: Our experience has been dealt a blow by the injury to senior Seth Curry, but the blow is just to placing the experience onto the court. Curry is still 100 percent available in the locker room and on the sidelines to provide leadership to the younger players. This is a big deal. Curry must be in the ears of the youngsters explaining what needs to be happenning, who needs to be doing it, and how it needs to be done! He is a senior so it is time for him to take the bull by the horns and lead! With his unfortunate injury threatening to limit his ability to see the court, the leadership will have to take place in the locker room and on the sidelines. To be clear, Duke doesn't need Curry to be a cheerleader. Coach K and the team need Curry to be an "in-your-face" leader.

Seniors Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly are National Champions! They need to play like it.

(4) Outside shooting: Who is going to shoot the ball? Duke was a pitiful, allow me to repeat myself - PITIFUL 1-17 on 3-pointers against WSSU. With Curry sidelined, or at least limited, the onus falls upon Ryan Kelly, Rasheed Sulaimon and Quinn Cook to knock down the 3-pointers. The offense is going to look to run through Mason Plumlee inside but a key element for helping Plumlee get solid looks in the post is to stretch defenses with the long ball.To me, scoring this year will be a major concern. To date, we haven't shown the ability to hit open shots from the outside. Who will develop in that regard. Ryan is the best bet with Curry if healthy. We really need Rasheed to develop this ability and I believe he will. To date our small forwards don't show much shooting touch from outside.

(5) Point Guard: I already talked about Quinn Cook's importance on the defensive end of the court, but his performance on offense is equally or possible more vital. Some folks (including me) say Duke has not had a true point guard since Chris Duhon graduated in 2004 (with the obvious exception of Kyrie Irving's 11 game career). Cook needs to step up and prove he can run the offense, distribute the ball and be Coach K's on court leader. Is Cook next in a long line of great Duke point guards? Will he become a part of discussions on Bob Verga, Dick Devenzio, Gary Melchionni, Tommy Amaker, Bobby Hurley, Steve Wojciekowski, William Avery, Jason Williams and Chris Duhon? Hopefully, the answer is an emphatic YES!

(6) Freshman Star: I firmly believe Duke needs one of the freshmen to step up and be a star. With only eight scholarship players 100 percent healthy and ready to go, and three of those eight being freshmen (Amile Jefferson, Alex Murphy & Rasheed Sulaimon) somebody is going to have to have a freshman season like JJ Redick had in 2003 or Kyle Singler had in 2008 or Grant Hill had in 1991. Will one of the freshmen rapidly develop into star? It's a good question that deserves discussing.Rasheed seems to have a calmness and maturity about him and I believe he could quickly develop into a stat stuffer. Amile is a high energy guy. Alex hasn't shown the pace of development that I had hoped for, but he is still young and is a good athlete, so there are possibilities across the board with these three. It will be incumbent on us as fans to be patient with these kids while they learn and grow.

To be clear, I am not saying Sulaimon has to be the next Redick, or Murphy has to be the next Singler, or Jefferson has to be the next Hill. We all know there is no next Redick, Singler or Hill. I am simply stating one of the freshmen must be better than just good.

That's all folks! Thanks for reading my madness and please pipe in with your two cents or if you are so inclined give us a complete nickles worth of wisdom.

Thats for your post. I embedded my thoughts in red above.

superdave
11-14-2012, 12:10 AM
Rasheed Sulaimon knows how to feed a big guy. This needs to become a permanent fixture of our offense. He can feed the post and drive and dish. I was skeptical when I heard the coaches thought he could play point, but he will be able to step into that role down the road. He's going to be an awesome player for us on both ends.

Kedsy
11-14-2012, 12:15 AM
Rasheed Sulaimon knows how to feed a big guy. This needs to become a permanent fixture of our offense. He can feed the post and drive and dish. I was skeptical when I heard the coaches thought he could play point, but he will be able to step into that role down the road. He's going to be an awesome player for us on both ends.

That very early play when Rasheed drove into the lane and dished to Mason for the dunk, (a) was amazing; and (b) set the tone for the Duke win.

COYS
11-14-2012, 10:16 AM
That very early play when Rasheed drove into the lane and dished to Mason for the dunk, (a) was amazing; and (b) set the tone for the Duke win.

Totally agree. It also shows that that the preseason hype about Rasheed being more advanced than a freshman Nolan was spot on. If he hit a few more shots (he missed some very makable ones), he becomes the unquestioned MOTM as he rebounded well from the wing despite a HUGE size disadvantage and led the team in assists. His ability to create kept our sputtering offense afloat in the first half and his huge threes in the second helped seal the game. It was a very impressive performance. He has a tendency to go to his right every time, which opponents may start to gameplan against, but his ability to get by his man, get into the lane, and make the right decision is actually more advanced than Austin's was last season. Austin may have been able to get by his man more frequently, but Rasheed is ahead of Austin from last year in terms of knowing what to do once he gets into the lane. It was very encouraging to me.

fidel
11-14-2012, 01:41 PM
I don't normally jump in on these as I am anything but a basketball mind (never played anything but pickup). However, being of Duke colors I spend way too much time lurking here and looking forward to games (I attended 2010 Championship-what a blast, and then last years fiasco at Ohio State-Ugh).

So don't expect much depth of analysis.

What I will try to add is a different spin than what is in the OP's post (a great post btw). That is...what to expect from Phase 1? What are outlined are all solid points, however they could be asked at every stage. What I want to know is...what do we need to see in November. My list is similar, so maybe I am just wordsmithing here, but the context of 'now, its the real world' could use some discussion.


Phase 1 starts with the Georgia State game on Friday night and runs through the Ohio State game in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The marquee games will be against Kentucky on 11/13 and Ohio State on 11/28. Minnesota on 11/22 in the Bahamas is another tough game. The team and coaching staff are going to learn a lot about themselves during Phase 1.

This is the warmup to the ACC regular season, and in some ways preludes to the NCAA. In usual K fashion we aren't playing all North East Western Wyoming State at Hicksville for W's. Kentucky (#3), OSU (#4), Minnesota (on the edge of the top 25), potentially Louisville (#2), Missouri (#14), Memphis (#17) are all in store for this team (VCU, and to a lesser extend Stanford are also on the edge of the top 25 and potentials in the Battle 4 Atlantis brackets). We are only talking 7 games, but what an early season gamut to run!

The Most Important Lesson: the team gets the structure of a tournament filled with the Real Thing - as ESPN says, over 160 NCAA tournament appearance contenders. The phase finishes with a primetime game against Ohio State, who smacked Duke like nobody smacks Duke last year (the horror! the horror!) and coming right off the Battle 4 Atlantis we have to see Duke step up once again.

I believe in this phase K is willing to learn, and to trade potential L's for experience. We'll have the NEWWSaH's scheduled over the holiday break which are meant to reinforce what we learn in this phase, but for now, this team has to grow up quickly and decide to win. The path to the national championship is attained by Survive and Advance, but this is predominantly accomplished by mental strength and No Fear.


(1) Health:

Yes. Always.

(2) Mason

The aptly-named Mason should be the foundation of this team. The offensive and defensive tones should be set by setting Mason up for success. All Mason, all the time. This isn't to understate the values of the rest of the team (Fist and all), but we have an outstanding talent that we think can change games. Can he? Can the team coalesce around Mason? When Mason is on, its such a pleasure to watch. I want to see more of it.



(3) Renewed focus upon DEFENSE:

Nothing to add here. We'll be looking for the line-ups that work, that pull together stops followed by points. We have the bodies and the ability, so what we need is the fit.


(3) Experience:

I'm going to call this one Leadership. I think this is predominantly Mason's burden to carry if I want to see him as the source of O and D, but Curry and Kelly are naturals to rally the troops as well. But who else is going to step up? These seven games are going to (or should be) about learning to win, and that means the mental toughness to win. Who is going to show no quarter? Who isn't going to let himself get taken out of games when it counts? We will see some interesting things here over this phase.


(4) Outside shooting:

I'll go with what other posters have asked....what will our offense look like? Kinda tied to All Mason All The Time. What will we see our offense turn in to? How will we find the points? Inside vs Outside, threes against twos. How we manage against teams that shoot versus teams that play inside, how the offense shifts to adapt...anyone with better understanding of the opponents and the challenges each brings to the table...?


That's all folks! Thanks for reading my madness and please pipe in with your two cents or if you are so inclined give us a complete nickles worth of wisdom.

Added my two cents. Love these threads, makes the games much more than W/Ls.

Kedsy
11-14-2012, 02:09 PM
I believe in this phase K is willing to learn, and to trade potential L's for experience.

This would be very unlike Coach K. And it didn't seem that way in the Kentucky game, either, in which Alex and Amile combined for 6 minutes.

DukieInBrasil
11-14-2012, 03:06 PM
Totally agree. It also shows that that the preseason hype about Rasheed being more advanced than a freshman Nolan was spot on. If he hit a few more shots (he missed some very makable ones), he becomes the unquestioned MOTM as he rebounded well from the wing despite a HUGE size disadvantage and led the team in assists. His ability to create kept our sputtering offense afloat in the first half and his huge threes in the second helped seal the game. It was a very impressive performance. He has a tendency to go to his right every time, which opponents may start to gameplan against, but his ability to get by his man, get into the lane, and make the right decision is actually more advanced than Austin's was last season. Austin may have been able to get by his man more frequently, but Rasheed is ahead of Austin from last year in terms of knowing what to do once he gets into the lane. It was very encouraging to me.

Yes, he did rebound well, in fact he led the team in rebounds AND assists. Pretty nice combination for a Fr. It's only 2 games, but he has played well and within himself in each game, which is pretty encouraging.

NSDukeFan
11-14-2012, 03:39 PM
Yes, he did rebound well, in fact he led the team in rebounds AND assists. Pretty nice combination for a Fr. It's only 2 games, but he has played well and within himself in each game, which is pretty encouraging.

I agree but he was also aggressive going to the basket and was not shy about being a scorer and/or creator. Very encouraging.

superdave
11-18-2012, 10:13 PM
This team is light years better defensively than last year's team. I think Cook and Sulaimon put a lot of pressure on ball handlers and that enables everyone else to be better. I do worry that we wont have enough size on the floor to be a really good rebounding team with Sulaimon playing the three though. I hope Alex and Amile can earn minutes at the three because our ceiling is higher with that kind of size.

Newton_14
11-21-2012, 11:28 PM
This team is light years better defensively than last year's team. I think Cook and Sulaimon put a lot of pressure on ball handlers and that enables everyone else to be better. I do worry that we wont have enough size on the floor to be a really good rebounding team with Sulaimon playing the three though. I hope Alex and Amile can earn minutes at the three because our ceiling is higher with that kind of size.

Agree on both points. It is refreshing to watch a Duke team play good defense again. I hope it is something they build on game over game throughout the season. The addition of Rasheed, and the improved defense of the returning players such as Quinn, Seth, and Tyler is making a huge difference thus far. Exciting to see Amile defend on the perimeter as well.

On point two, I was hoping the 3 guard line up would be the exception, not the rule. I had high hopes for Alex, and after CTC and the exhibitions, it looked like he would be the starter at the 3, and as an added bonus, Amile would be pushing for minutes at the 3 as well. Now that we have seen the Kentucky and FGC games though, all of that is out the window. The 3 guard lineup will be the rule, with Tyler being the main sub off the bench backing up all 3 guys. The only unknown at this point is how much MP3 will be used once he gets healthy. The top 7 guys will be Mason, Ryan, Seth, Rasheed, Quinn, Tyler, and Josh. Amile will hopefully improve and scratch out more than 6 mpg. Alex will be the odd man out, with Marshall a tbd until healthy enough to see what his role will be.

I do think it will help if Marshall can garner the minutes as Mason's backup, although unless foul trouble prevents it, Mason is going to play 35+ mpg most nights. It is still a good team, but small on the perimeter. We will have to force turnovers and hit a fair share of 3's to help offset the lack of size. It is definitely imo, a better team than last year, and to me Rasheed can play the 3 better than Austin did. Much better defender, with better length, quickness, and a better rebounder. The offense appears to be much better than last year as well, especially if Quinn can sustain and even build on his play in the last two games. Seth's leg is a concern, but he has looked really good so far.

A good looking team 3 games in, just not the team I expected/hoped to see. That said, they are still a team with a high ceiling, and a team that can be much better in Feb/March, than it is right now. This next stretch of games will be a test. Very tough schedule. I worry about Seth's conditioning with 3 games in 3 days. If they can win this tournament though, it will be a huge accomplishment.

superdave
11-22-2012, 08:11 AM
On point two, I was hoping the 3 guard line up would be the exception, not the rule. I had high hopes for Alex, and after CTC and the exhibitions, it looked like he would be the starter at the 3, and as an added bonus, Amile would be pushing for minutes at the 3 as well. Now that we have seen the Kentucky and FGC games though, all of that is out the window. The 3 guard lineup will be the rule, with Tyler being the main sub off the bench backing up all 3 guys. The only unknown at this point is how much MP3 will be used once he gets healthy. The top 7 guys will be Mason, Ryan, Seth, Rasheed, Quinn, Tyler, and Josh. Amile will hopefully improve and scratch out more than 6 mpg. Alex will be the odd man out, with Marshall a tbd until healthy enough to see what his role will be.


I do not know that the rotation is set. I think we could get killed on the glass this week and next and that could convince Coach K to go with the bigger lineup. OSU could beat us by controlling the boards, for example. I just dont think you're going to control the boards, or get more than the occasional offensive rebound, with Ryan Kelly at the 4. Not his game night in, night out.

But it is hard for K not to play his best defensive team (positive for Tyler and Amile). And he's consistently played his best guys a ton of minutes.

Ideally we'd play a bigger lineup when the opponent is bigger, but I dont know that that would be a likely Coach K reactionary gameplan either. I do not want to see Alex get buried, but he's got to earn it. I do not want to see a shorter bench with a smaller lineup because our ceiling will be lower as a team. I argued for it last year and I think it makes some sense again this year - we should develop a defensive platoon to play two quick stretches each half where they press and trap, speed the other team up, and shake up the game for 4-5 possessions. Alex, Amile, Tyler, Rasheed would be perfect for that.

I think we'll learn if the rotation is set now through OSU.

NSDukeFan
11-22-2012, 09:22 AM
Agree on both points. It is refreshing to watch a Duke team play good defense again. I hope it is something they build on game over game throughout the season. The addition of Rasheed, and the improved defense of the returning players such as Quinn, Seth, and Tyler is making a huge difference thus far. Exciting to see Amile defend on the perimeter as well.
The defense has been encouraging so far, but I am not sure that the sample size is big enough at this point to say that it is far superior to last year's defense that was very impressive in winning the Maui tournament.


On point two, I was hoping the 3 guard line up would be the exception, not the rule. I had high hopes for Alex, and after CTC and the exhibitions, it looked like he would be the starter at the 3, and as an added bonus, Amile would be pushing for minutes at the 3 as well. Now that we have seen the Kentucky and FGC games though, all of that is out the window. The 3 guard lineup will be the rule, with Tyler being the main sub off the bench backing up all 3 guys. The only unknown at this point is how much MP3 will be used once he gets healthy. The top 7 guys will be Mason, Ryan, Seth, Rasheed, Quinn, Tyler, and Josh. Amile will hopefully improve and scratch out more than 6 mpg. Alex will be the odd man out, with Marshall a tbd until healthy enough to see what his role will be.
One of the great things about college basketball and that certainly includes Duke's teams, is how unpredictable the season can be. If you are just talking about this phase, than the bolded statement is reasonable, but I would not share your confidence. I'm not yet convinced that Alex will be the odd man out for the season, though I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to be for this phase. I would say the same for Amile. I expect at some point this year, Amile and/or Alex will pass at least one of the top 7 in the pecking order, at least temporarily. There could certainly be some change in this phase as well. If Marshall does become a rotation player this phase, that could also drop one of your top 7 to spot minutes as well (though I hope not.)

I do think it will help if Marshall can garner the minutes as Mason's backup, although unless foul trouble prevents it, Mason is going to play 35+ mpg most nights. It is still a good team, but small on the perimeter. We will have to force turnovers and hit a fair share of 3's to help offset the lack of size. It is definitely imo, a better team than last year, and to me Rasheed can play the 3 better than Austin did. Much better defender, with better length, quickness, and a better rebounder. The offense appears to be much better than last year as well, especially if Quinn can sustain and even build on his play in the last two games. Seth's leg is a concern, but he has looked really good so far.

A good looking team 3 games in, just not the team I expected/hoped to see. That said, they are still a team with a high ceiling, and a team that can be much better in Feb/March, than it is right now. This next stretch of games will be a test. Very tough schedule. I worry about Seth's conditioning with 3 games in 3 days. If they can win this tournament though, it will be a huge accomplishment.
I also am not yet convinced that this team is better than last year. I definitely predict a better result in the NCAA tournament this year and expect this year's team to be better defensively, but for much of last year, Duke was an offensive juggernaut, though not necessarily a pretty one. The team did not assist on a great number of its baskets and did not pass well overall, but with Mason and Miles hitting a high percentage inside and Austin, Andre, Seth and Ryan hitting a high percentage outside, that was a very efficient offensive team, for most of the year.

I do think this team will be more fun to watch for me and many others because of a likelihood of improved defense and better ball movement, but that was an awfully successful team last year, that struggled with the injury to Ryan and had an extremely surprising and disappointing final game. I am hoping for an even better year this year, (though it would be awfully difficult to match last year's conference road record) or a similar year with a better finish.

Newton_14
11-22-2012, 10:18 AM
The defense has been encouraging so far, but I am not sure that the sample size is big enough at this point to say that it is far superior to last year's defense that was very impressive in winning the Maui tournament.

One of the great things about college basketball and that certainly includes Duke's teams, is how unpredictable the season can be. If you are just talking about this phase, than the bolded statement is reasonable, but I would not share your confidence. I'm not yet convinced that Alex will be the odd man out for the season, though I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to be for this phase. I would say the same for Amile. I expect at some point this year, Amile and/or Alex will pass at least one of the top 7 in the pecking order, at least temporarily. There could certainly be some change in this phase as well. If Marshall does become a rotation player this phase, that could also drop one of your top 7 to spot minutes as well (though I hope not.)

I also am not yet convinced that this team is better than last year. I definitely predict a better result in the NCAA tournament this year and expect this year's team to be better defensively, but for much of last year, Duke was an offensive juggernaut, though not necessarily a pretty one. The team did not assist on a great number of its baskets and did not pass well overall, but with Mason and Miles hitting a high percentage inside and Austin, Andre, Seth and Ryan hitting a high percentage outside, that was a very efficient offensive team, for most of the year.

I do think this team will be more fun to watch for me and many others because of a likelihood of improved defense and better ball movement, but that was an awfully successful team last year, that struggled with the injury to Ryan and had an extremely surprising and disappointing final game. I am hoping for an even better year this year, (though it would be awfully difficult to match last year's conference road record) or a similar year with a better finish.

Thanks for your thoughts and Superdave's as well. I hope both of you are right and the rotation will evolve over the course of the season. I am in a weird state with this team. Part of it is the shock of what's going on with Murphy. I did not see this coming at all. I thought he looked really solid defensively in CTC and exhibitions. Seeing our SF block shots in the paint was refreshing. Amile looked good as well. Don't misunderstand what I am saying though. I firmly believe kids have to earn their minutes, and the fact that their minutes dropped significantly in the last two games, tells me that 1. they aren't getting it done in practice, and 2. K does not trust either one in tight games. I really hope both of them change those two factors. So that is the disappointments for me.

On the other hand, I am ecstatic at how well the team is playing, and I am convinced it is a better team right now than last year. I agree these next 4 games are brutal, and we are likely to drop 1 or 2 of them. Competition is just stiff, and our guys are still learning how to play together. However, there are a ton of positives in terms of both the team as a whole and in individuals. The team defense is much better imo, and the offense is much more fluid and balanced, plus with Quinn and Rasheed we have a fast breaking element that did not exist last year. As for individuals, after a slow start, Quinn is starting to play much better than last year; Mason believes in himself and is playing like an All American; Seth despite being hurt is better on both ends of the floor, Josh has improved a lot, and is in better shape; Tyler is quicker and in better shape; and Ryan, despite not shooting well is better in other phases. Collectively that is more improvement from returners than I think anyone could have hoped for. With the rooks, Rasheed has been an absolute blessing, and in my opinion is a better college player than Austin was. No offense meant to Austin at all. It is more a reflection on how good Rasheed is. Amile is also better out of the gate than I expected.

So that is my current take on things. I really really like this team. I just hope Amile and Alex can force K to play them at the SF position a meaningful amount of minutes. Their size can help this team if that happens.

sagegrouse
11-22-2012, 10:54 AM
The defense has been encouraging so far, but I am not sure that the sample size is big enough at this point to say that it is far superior to last year's defense that was very impressive in winning the Maui tournament.

One of the great things about college basketball and that certainly includes Duke's teams, is how unpredictable the season can be. If you are just talking about this phase, than the bolded statement is reasonable, but I would not share your confidence. I'm not yet convinced that Alex will be the odd man out for the season, though I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to be for this phase. I would say the same for Amile. I expect at some point this year, Amile and/or Alex will pass at least one of the top 7 in the pecking order, at least temporarily. There could certainly be some change in this phase as well. If Marshall does become a rotation player this phase, that could also drop one of your top 7 to spot minutes as well (though I hope not.)

I also am not yet convinced that this team is better than last year. I definitely predict a better result in the NCAA tournament this year and expect this year's team to be better defensively, but for much of last year, Duke was an offensive juggernaut, though not necessarily a pretty one. The team did not assist on a great number of its baskets and did not pass well overall, but with Mason and Miles hitting a high percentage inside and Austin, Andre, Seth and Ryan hitting a high percentage outside, that was a very efficient offensive team, for most of the year.

I do think this team will be more fun to watch for me and many others because of a likelihood of improved defense and better ball movement, but that was an awfully successful team last year, that struggled with the injury to Ryan and had an extremely surprising and disappointing final game. I am hoping for an even better year this year, (though it would be awfully difficult to match last year's conference road record) or a similar year with a better finish.


Concerning last year: the Bard said it all (with a helpful edit):

" Nothing in his life
[Marked] him like the leaving it."

You are wise to point out that last year's team was pretty darned good, ranked all year between #4 and #10. It is understandable for us fans to dwell on the three losses in the last four games, but it is unfair to the players who played so well throughout the season.

I am hopeful for this season. I, like you and others, think the teamwork will be better on O and D. Therefore, we might calibrate our expectations to the talent at hand:

While we lost our best player and our sixth-best player, the returning players should be individually improved. We all hope that Quinn will make a huge giant step forward, while Mason will play like an All-American. The new players should bring something as well. It is unreasonable to expect that Marshall will fully replace Miles or that Rasheed can meet Austin's high standards. But still, they will be important players. And I believe that we will get meaningful contributions from both Amile and Alex. I can argue (hope?) that the overall talent level, as well as the teamwork, is better than last year's.

Then, of course, there is the opposition; this is what the military calls the red vs. blue comparison. UNC lost a huge amount of talent and should not be nearly as formidable as last year. It looks to me though, that on a given night, UNC could beat anyone in the country, or on another night, lose to anyone in the top 60. I guess State, newly rejoining the elite, will also have good and bad games.

I am hoping for a great season, and it looks there's some reason for optimism.

sagegrouse

NSDukeFan
11-22-2012, 10:55 AM
Thanks for your thoughts and Superdave's as well. I hope both of you are right and the rotation will evolve over the course of the season. I am in a weird state with this team. Part of it is the shock of what's going on with Murphy. I did not see this coming at all. I thought he looked really solid defensively in CTC and exhibitions. Seeing our SF block shots in the paint was refreshing. Amile looked good as well. Don't misunderstand what I am saying though. I firmly believe kids have to earn their minutes, and the fact that their minutes dropped significantly in the last two games, tells me that 1. they aren't getting it done in practice, and 2. K does not trust either one in tight games. I really hope both of them change those two factors. So that is the disappointments for me.

On the other hand, I am ecstatic at how well the team is playing, and I am convinced it is a better team right now than last year. I agree these next 4 games are brutal, and we are likely to drop 1 or 2 of them. Competition is just stiff, and our guys are still learning how to play together. However, there are a ton of positives in terms of both the team as a whole and in individuals. The team defense is much better imo, and the offense is much more fluid and balanced, plus with Quinn and Rasheed we have a fast breaking element that did not exist last year. As for individuals, after a slow start, Quinn is starting to play much better than last year; Mason believes in himself and is playing like an All American; Seth despite being hurt is better on both ends of the floor, Josh has improved a lot, and is in better shape; Tyler is quicker and in better shape; and Ryan, despite not shooting well is better in other phases. Collectively that is more improvement from returners than I think anyone could have hoped for. With the rooks, Rasheed has been an absolute blessing, and in my opinion is a better college player than Austin was. No offense meant to Austin at all. It is more a reflection on how good Rasheed is. Amile is also better out of the gate than I expected.

So that is my current take on things. I really really like this team. I just hope Amile and Alex can force K to play them at the SF position a meaningful amount of minutes. Their size can help this team if that happens.

I agree completely with your first paragraph and am hoping that both your points 1. and 2. change this year. I am also very excited at how well the team is playing so far, but am not yet convinced this team is better than the one that won Maui last year. I hope it is and ends up better. Although I believe the team may be more fun to watch with Rasheed and he looks to be helping the team as a solid defensive player (I saw in the Minnesota pre-game notes from GoDuke.com that he leads the team with four charges taken), but I don't know if I would say that he is a better college player than Austin. Rivers, I believe, was the first Duke freshman to be first-team all-ACC and it was well deserved for his astonishing ability to get by anyone anytime and create a decent look whenever he wanted. I also enjoyed how he improved his decision making as the year went on, even though he never became as good a creator for his teammates as I hoped he would.
I also really like this team and hope that Amile and Alex force the coaching staff to use a big wing for more minutes than the team has so far. The rest of this phase should be very interesting.

NSDukeFan
11-22-2012, 11:01 AM
Concerning last year: the Bard said it all (with a helpful edit):

" Nothing in his life
[Marked] him like the leaving it."

You are wise to point out that last year's team was pretty darned good, ranked all year between #4 and #10. It is understandable for us fans to dwell on the three losses in the last four games, but it is unfair to the players who played so well throughout the season.

...

sagegrouse

This is what I was most trying to get across. Those last losses hurt, but Duke was having an excellent 26-4 season before that final four game stretch. I try not to look at last year solely based on that final stretch when most of the season was extremely successful.

Dukeblue91
11-22-2012, 06:47 PM
This is what I was most trying to get across. Those last losses hurt, but Duke was having an excellent 26-4 season before that final four game stretch. I try not to look at last year solely based on that final stretch when most of the season was extremely successful.

I too sometimes forget how good last years team really was and for some reason keep remembering the last few games more the the sum of the whole.
I still have not been able to put my finger on it but thru the last 4 games this team looks like it is having fun on the court and not so business like.
Maybe so, I don't know what it was but last year there was some sort of undercurrent that is not here this year.

This years team is fun to watch and seeing how they are coming together and it may have more to do that we have 3 seniors that are playing for the last season and it is showing.

Austin was a incredible player and he did some incredible things as was Kyrie the year before but I have to be honest I never liked having a one and done player especially when knowing so from the beginning.
I always felt that it disrupts a team as paying as such because everything has to go through that said player on every play.
Maybe I'm wrong or old fashioned but that is how I feel.

Saratoga2
11-29-2012, 09:12 AM
Despite injuries to Marshall and Seth at less than 100%, we got through this critical phase and knocked off 3 top opponenets during that run. Wow!

Some of the great things coming from this run is that it is obvious the team is playing more together this year and the best is yet to come.

1. Mason has shown a great leap in confidence to go with his athleticism. Free throws are falling and he is a double double man nightly
2. Quinn has shown that he is the legitimate point guard that we have lacked on recent teams following Scheyer.
3. Rasheed is a great talent who will only get much better. Speed, ability, toughness, game understanding.
4. Seth has shown how good he can be and only needs to get his health back to be a major contributor.
5. Ryan defensive ability was demonstrated against Kentucky and Ohio state, putting the collar on big scorers. He also is starting to hit his shots.
6. Help from Tyler and Josh. Slim bench but still it is beating the best out there.

Going forward and soon, Marshall comes back, Seth probably regains his mobility and both Amile and Alex get significant PT as the schedule softens in December.

Best scenario is that we stay healthy, Marshall really is the 6th besst player on the team and Amile and Alex show they are capable of competing and winning at the Div I level. Look forward to phase II

Mike Corey
11-29-2012, 09:17 AM
For the record, BobGreen nailed this.

I hope you enjoy your Powerball winnings, sir. ;)

NSDukeFan
11-29-2012, 10:14 AM
...

(6) Freshman Star: I firmly believe Duke needs one of the freshmen to step up and be a star. With only eight scholarship players 100 percent healthy and ready to go, and three of those eight being freshmen (Amile Jefferson, Alex Murphy & Rasheed Sulaimon) somebody is going to have to have a freshman season like JJ Redick had in 2003 or Kyle Singler had in 2008 or Grant Hill had in 1991. Will one of the freshmen rapidly develop into star? It's a good question that deserves discussing.

To be clear, I am not saying Sulaimon has to be the next Redick, or Murphy has to be the next Singler, or Jefferson has to be the next Hill. We all know there is no next Redick, Singler or Hill. I am simply stating one of the freshmen must be better than just good.

That's all folks! Thanks for reading my madness and please pipe in with your two cents or if you are so inclined give us a complete nickles worth of wisdom.

As Mike Corey said Bob Green nailed this and especially this last point. Rasheed is definitely better than good. There are so many guys that I really enjoy watching on this team, and Rasheed is certainly one of them. What an opening stretch from him.

roywhite
11-29-2012, 10:18 AM
Speaking in general terms, we now see MAJOR improvement vs last year in two key phases:

Transition game on offense

Team Defense

Mike Corey
11-29-2012, 10:29 AM
Our FT shooting average has improved from 70% to 78%, as well.

Wander
11-29-2012, 10:32 AM
And, not unrelated to Roywhite's #1, we are a MUCH better passing team this year.

loran16
11-29-2012, 01:19 PM
Unofficial recap time!



(1) Health: I strongly believe every Phase Report should start with health. The preseason injuries to Seth Curry and Marshall Plumlee reinforces this believe. With only eight scholarship players available, the team absolutely cannot afford another injury. The players are going to suffer bumps and bruises; however, a key factor to keep both your eyes upon during Phase 1 is team health.


The good news: No one else got hurt (thank god), Curry could play - though he was clearly hobbled by injury yesterday - and Marshall should in theory debut sometime during Phase 2.

Still Health is still a concern - this is not a deep team at the moment.



(2) Renewed focus upon DEFENSE: Last season we struggled to defend the perimeter and a large part of those struggles were due to the absence of length at small forward or wing guard. This season we will move away from a 3-guard line-up toward a more traditional 3-forward line-up. The performance of Amile Jefferson (6'8") and Alex Murphy (6'8") at small forward will be the first key to the renewed focus upon DEFENSE. They looked good during the exhibition games, but will they continue to look good as the competition stiffens? The answer to that question will go a long way toward defining defensive success this season.

The second key will be the performance of Rasheed Sulaimon. A big part of perimeter defense is denial. Sulaimon must use his length and lateral quickness to be in position to deny his man the ball. Jon Scheyer was a master of denial defense and is a good example of who Sulaimon should work toward emulating.

The penultimate key will be Quinn Cook's ability to pressure the ball. Perimeter defense starts with pure harrassment of the opponent's primary ball handler. Cook's job is to harrass to the point the opponent makes mistakes such as throwing the ball away or dribbling away the shot clock resulting in a bad shot. Bad passes, rushed shots late in a possession and the opponent's point guard attempting to do too much are all potential positive results from harrassing pressure applied from the moment the ball handler crosses the half court line.



Duke's D is improved this year, though Murphy and Jefferson have been non factors due to lack of playing time. Let's look at the #s: SCACCHoops is running some Duke Defensive Tracking #s this year (http://www.scacchoops.com/tempobasedstats.asp?steam=DU), though I'm not sure they're being as rigorous as Tommy was for Airowe's blog last year (and they're not including everything), it's a good way to compare.

Last year, every Duke Defender in the first half of acc season had DRating's over 100: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2012/02/15/project-defensive-scoresheet-almost-cumulative-stats/ - meaning that opponents were essentially scoring over a point per possession while they were on the floor.

This year, only Seth Curry is above 100 (102.4), which is still an improvement from last year. Sheed's at 98.7 (compare to Dre's abysmal 114 from last year) and TT is leading the guards at an amazing 91.5 - 2/3 of the time that opponents attempt to make a move on TT, they come away with no points. Cook's been solid too.

Really, the guards' D has stepped up immensely, resulting in our opponents having an effective Field Goal % nearly 10% lower than Duke so far this year. HOWEVER:



The final key is preventing second chance points. Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly must dominate the defensive glass. There is nothing more disheartening than a team playing intense defense for an entire possession only to see the opponent grab an offensive rebound and score. Amile Jefferson and Alex Murphy need to provide improved rebounding at the small forward position. Our wing guards were not successful rebounding the basketball last season.

If Duke is truly to have a renewed focus upon DEFENSE in 2012-13, we should see ample examples of the four key points listed above during Phase 1 games.


Ummm, so not so good here? Duke's 268th in the Country at Defensive Rebounding and it shows: we've played 4 top 50 O Rebounding teams and all four have dominated the offensive glass. Meanwhile the #1 Offensive Rebounding team in the country so far is MARYLAND, who we play twice. Gotta fix this quick.

The obvious fix to this is the return of Marshall Plumlee....Mason's Defensive Rebounding % has stayed the same but this isnt a sign of improvement but actual of getting worse - there are more defensive rebounding opportunities with Miles gone, but Mason hasn't picked up the slack. Neither has Ryan Kelly, whose style of D keeps him too far out of position to box out. Marshall would help here....but even when he returns Duke will run Mason-Kelly out there for most minutes, making it questionable that he'd help too much unless Duke oddly goes big (which I doubt).

Perhaps an alternate solution would be for Duke to go "Big" by playing Hairston at the 4, Kelly at the 3 - Jiggy has shown some aptitude for rebounding, albeit mostly offensive rebounding, and despite his size could perform a lance thomas-esque role in cleaning up the boards a little better. Of course, this leads you with only 2 spots for 4 guards, which is difficult.



(3) Experience: Our experience has been dealt a blow by the injury to senior Seth Curry, but the blow is just to placing the experience onto the court. Curry is still 100 percent available in the locker room and on the sidelines to provide leadership to the younger players. This is a big deal. Curry must be in the ears of the youngsters explaining what needs to be happenning, who needs to be doing it, and how it needs to be done! He is a senior so it is time for him to take the bull by the horns and lead! With his unfortunate injury threatening to limit his ability to see the court, the leadership will have to take place in the locker room and on the sidelines. To be clear, Duke doesn't need Curry to be a cheerleader. Coach K and the team need Curry to be an "in-your-face" leader.

Seniors Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly are National Champions! They need to play like it.

Yeah, this is good. We can leave this off the Phase 2 panel.




(4) Outside shooting: Who is going to shoot the ball? Duke was a pitiful, allow me to repeat myself - PITIFUL 1-17 on 3-pointers against WSSU. With Curry sidelined, or at least limited, the onus falls upon Ryan Kelly, Rasheed Sulaimon and Quinn Cook to knock down the 3-pointers. The offense is going to look to run through Mason Plumlee inside but a key element for helping Plumlee get solid looks in the post is to stretch defenses with the long ball.

Duke's shooting 37.7% from 3 (60th in the nation), which is pretty good - especially since Ryan is still only shooting 31.8% from 3. Duke has 3 guys over 40% from 3 - Cook, Sheed and TYLER THORNTON - which is an underrated development if it continues though it's a tiny (15 shots) sample size. The team sometimes doesn't get open enough because it refuses to pound the ball inside to Mason (and thus allowing Mason to kick the ball out), which it needs to work on.


(5) Point Guard: I already talked about Quinn Cook's importance on the defensive end of the court, but his performance on offense is equally or possible more vital. Some folks (including me) say Duke has not had a true point guard since Chris Duhon graduated in 2004 (with the obvious exception of Kyrie Irving's 11 game career). Cook needs to step up and prove he can run the offense, distribute the ball and be Coach K's on court leader. Is Cook next in a long line of great Duke point guards? Will he become a part of discussions on Bob Verga, Dick Devenzio, Gary Melchionni, Tommy Amaker, Bobby Hurley, Steve Wojciekowski, William Avery, Jason Williams and Chris Duhon? Hopefully, the answer is an emphatic YES!

So far so good.


(6) Freshman Star: I firmly believe Duke needs one of the freshmen to step up and be a star. With only eight scholarship players 100 percent healthy and ready to go, and three of those eight being freshmen (Amile Jefferson, Alex Murphy & Rasheed Sulaimon) somebody is going to have to have a freshman season like JJ Redick had in 2003 or Kyle Singler had in 2008 or Grant Hill had in 1991. Will one of the freshmen rapidly develop into star? It's a good question that deserves discussing.

To be clear, I am not saying Sulaimon has to be the next Redick, or Murphy has to be the next Singler, or Jefferson has to be the next Hill. We all know there is no next Redick, Singler or Hill. I am simply stating one of the freshmen must be better than just good.

That's all folks! Thanks for reading my madness and please pipe in with your two cents or if you are so inclined give us a complete nickles worth of wisdom.

Hellooooooooooooooo Sheed. Last year:
Austin Rivers played 82.4% of Duke's minutes, with a 104.7 Offensive rating, being used on 24.1% of Duke's possessions and taking 25.5% of Duke's shots.
Sheed this year: 79.6% of Duke's minutes, 107.0 Offensive Rating, being used on 20.1% of possessions, taking 25.0% of Duke's shots.

In other words, Sheed is taking a less active role than Rivers, but is being more efficient and is still playing near as big a role as Austin did in the offense. And this is with Sheed being super cold his first two games by the way.


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Bob Green
11-29-2012, 02:22 PM
For the record, BobGreen nailed this.

Thanks for the props! Participating in the drafting of the Phase posts is an honor and a lot of fun.

CDu
11-29-2012, 06:52 PM
The obvious fix to this is the return of Marshall Plumlee....Mason's Defensive Rebounding % has stayed the same but this isnt a sign of improvement but actual of getting worse - there are more defensive rebounding opportunities with Miles gone, but Mason hasn't picked up the slack. Neither has Ryan Kelly, whose style of D keeps him too far out of position to box out. Marshall would help here....but even when he returns Duke will run Mason-Kelly out there for most minutes, making it questionable that he'd help too much unless Duke oddly goes big (which I doubt).

I don't know that I agree that Marshall is going to be some sort of rebounding panacea. For one thing, I don't think he'll play very much (as you mentioned). I see him backing up Mason and getting ~8-10mpg maybe. For another, a lot of the rebounds are coming from cutters getting free runs at the basket off missed shots. In other words, it is an issue of defensive players being caught out of position rather than being outsized. With the exception of the UK game, very few of our rebounding struggles can be attributed to players just jumping over defenders for rebounds.


Perhaps an alternate solution would be for Duke to go "Big" by playing Hairston at the 4, Kelly at the 3 - Jiggy has shown some aptitude for rebounding, albeit mostly offensive rebounding, and despite his size could perform a lance thomas-esque role in cleaning up the boards a little better. Of course, this leads you with only 2 spots for 4 guards, which is difficult.

I don't think this is a very good idea. Kelly is doing a fabulous job defensively at the 4/5 spot. But I suspect he'd get exposed by quicker 3s if he had to guard them primarily. Plus, I don't think lack of height is the main problem with our rebounding. It's positioning (or more accurately, not boxing out). We do a lot of things well defensively, but bodying up on potential rebounders doesn't seem to be one of them. Even little guys can keep bigs off the boards with a good box out. Being tall certainly helps, but it's largely irrelevant if you're out of position.

Frankly, I'm sort of okay with an "if it ain't broke, move on" philosophy. The lineup we're using is incredibly efficient offensively (#2 in the nation according to Pomeroy) and pretty darn good defensively (#21, even with the poor rebounding). I'd rather we stick with what's working and try to emphasize finishing plays off with good rebounding rather than throwing out the baby with the bath water and playing Kelly out of position.

DukieinSoCal
11-29-2012, 07:34 PM
I don't know that I agree that Marshall is going to be some sort of rebounding panacea. For one thing, I don't think he'll play very much (as you mentioned). I see him backing up Mason and getting ~8-10mpg maybe. For another, a lot of the rebounds are coming from cutters getting free runs at the basket off missed shots. In other words, it is an issue of defensive players being caught out of position rather than being outsized. With the exception of the UK game, very few of our rebounding struggles can be attributed to players just jumping over defenders for rebounds.



I don't think this is a very good idea. Kelly is doing a fabulous job defensively at the 4/5 spot. But I suspect he'd get exposed by quicker 3s if he had to guard them primarily. Plus, I don't think lack of height is the main problem with our rebounding. It's positioning (or more accurately, not boxing out). We do a lot of things well defensively, but bodying up on potential rebounders doesn't seem to be one of them. Even little guys can keep bigs off the boards with a good box out. Being tall certainly helps, but it's largely irrelevant if you're out of position.

Frankly, I'm sort of okay with an "if it ain't broke, move on" philosophy. The lineup we're using is incredibly efficient offensively (#2 in the nation according to Pomeroy) and pretty darn good defensively (#21, even with the poor rebounding). I'd rather we stick with what's working and try to emphasize finishing plays off with good rebounding rather than throwing out the baby with the bath water and playing Kelly out of position.

It would be interesting to know where the other teams offensive boards are coming from. Is there any way to break down which positions are getting what percentage of the offensive rebounds? Or even better, who's assignment is getting the rebounds? It seems like Mason is hauling down his fair share of rebounds, so I doubt that opposing centers are hurting us too much. If I had to guess, I would say the opposing PFs and SFs are gathering quite a few offensive boards. With Mason manning the center position and protecting the basket on drives, I would hope that Ryan would step up and increase his rebounding numbers. It seems like his numbers a bit low considering his height advantage on most nights and the fact that he is our PF. Sheed's rebounding numbers are actually pretty impressive considering he's only 6'4" and playing guys taller than him most nights.

CDu
11-29-2012, 08:08 PM
It would be interesting to know where the other teams offensive boards are coming from. Is there any way to break down which positions are getting what percentage of the offensive rebounds? Or even better, who's assignment is getting the rebounds? It seems like Mason is hauling down his fair share of rebounds, so I doubt that opposing centers are hurting us too much. If I had to guess, I would say the opposing PFs and SFs are gathering quite a few offensive boards. With Mason manning the center position and protecting the basket on drives, I would hope that Ryan would step up and increase his rebounding numbers. It seems like his numbers a bit low considering his height advantage on most nights and the fact that he is our PF. Sheed's rebounding numbers are actually pretty impressive considering he's only 6'4" and playing guys taller than him most nights.

I did a quick review of the ESPN box scores for each game. Here is the breakdown:

GSU: 7 for the forwards and centers, 2 for the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
UK: 2 from the C, 1 from the PF, 5 from the SF (Poythress the freak show), and 1 from the PG
FGCU: 7 from the forwards, 6 from the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
Minn: 4 from the C, 4 from the PF, 6 from the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
VCU: 2 from the C, 5 from the PF, 8 from the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
Lou: 2 from the C, 7 from the PF, 1 from the SF, 3 from the guards
OSU: 6 from the C, 0 from the PF, 4 from the SF, 6 from the guards

As you can see, there is a LOT of guard work crashing the glass. The OSU and UK games are the ones in which we faced a substantial size difference at SF (Thompson/Ross for OSU; Poythress for UK) and in those games the SF punished us on the offensive glass. But we've allowed 28 offensive rebounds to guards and 57 offensive rebounds to forwards/centers. 28 offensive rebounds (4 per game) by guards is a pretty large number, and does suggest that it's not simply a lack of size at SF that is hurting us on the offensive glass.

Newton_14
11-29-2012, 09:35 PM
I did a quick review of the ESPN box scores for each game. Here is the breakdown:

GSU: 7 for the forwards and centers, 2 for the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
UK: 2 from the C, 1 from the PF, 5 from the SF (Poythress the freak show), and 1 from the PG
FGCU: 7 from the forwards, 6 from the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
Minn: 4 from the C, 4 from the PF, 6 from the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
VCU: 2 from the C, 5 from the PF, 8 from the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
Lou: 2 from the C, 7 from the PF, 1 from the SF, 3 from the guards
OSU: 6 from the C, 0 from the PF, 4 from the SF, 6 from the guards

As you can see, there is a LOT of guard work crashing the glass. The OSU and UK games are the ones in which we faced a substantial size difference at SF (Thompson/Ross for OSU; Poythress for UK) and in those games the SF punished us on the offensive glass. But we've allowed 28 offensive rebounds to guards and 57 offensive rebounds to forwards/centers. 28 offensive rebounds (4 per game) by guards is a pretty large number, and does suggest that it's not simply a lack of size at SF that is hurting us on the offensive glass.

Mason said that defensive rebounding is focal point numero uno once they are able to start practicing regularly again. They should get a lot of practice days from now until conference play and it sounds like K is going to get to work trying to get some improvement there. They just have not had any practice time with the tourney and quick turnaround time for the OSU game.

CDu
11-30-2012, 09:17 AM
Mason said that defensive rebounding is focal point numero uno once they are able to start practicing regularly again. They should get a lot of practice days from now until conference play and it sounds like K is going to get to work trying to get some improvement there. They just have not had any practice time with the tourney and quick turnaround time for the OSU game.

Glad to hear that this may be a focus for the future. Though I would add that, unless you have an unbelievable size/athleticism/talent advantage, it's virtually impossible to be great at every aspect of defense. Someone posted in another thread that what makes us so dangerous this year offensively is that you can't take away both our inside game AND our perimeter shooting. At best, you have to choose to try to take away one or the other. But you just can't cover everything. The same concept applies defensively. It's really hard to play pressure, switching defense, attack passing lanes, challenge shots, and also dominate the defensive glass and then also be an incredibly dynamic, efficient offensive team. That just requires a TON of effort/energy. So I wouldn't expect us to suddenly become great in defensive rebounding AND everything else. But if we can at least be solidly above average at defensive rebounding to go along with suffocating defense, that may be enough.

sagegrouse
11-30-2012, 09:24 AM
Bob, you may want to consider the following for Phase II:

From my perch 250 miles away, I wonder whether we are seeing a new and different Coach K: even more intense; no compromises; have the team perform as close to 100 percent as possible at all times.

Observers in the Bahamas noted that he was all business, even at the social events.

The oddities (my word) about the rotation suggest that if you don't play at a very high level, you get to sit on the bench. Viz., Alex Murphy non-appearance and Quinn's benching for the first two games of the season. This has always been true to some extent, but this year seems extreme. We have, in Al's words, a six-and-one-half player rotation. I can't remember that before when we had nine seemingly good players.

If true, then why?


Last year must have been a huge disappointment for the coaching staff, and the disappointment was not only the last four games but also the generally poor defense.

Being the coach of the national team may have convinced K that you could improve the play of even the best players in the world: the national players have tended to have great seasons after a summer with their peers.

He's 65 years old, and he doesn't have to please anyone except himself.

He wants a fifth (and sixth) title really badly.

Just a thought.

sagegrouse

roywhite
11-30-2012, 09:33 AM
Bob, you may want to consider the following for Phase II:

From my perch 250 miles away, I wonder whether we are seeing a new and different Coach K: even more intense; no compromises; have the team perform as close to 100 percent as possible at all times.

Observers in the Bahamas noted that he was all business, even at the social events.

The oddities (my word) about the rotation suggest that if you don't play at a very high level, you get to sit on the bench. Viz., Alex Murphy non-appearance and Quinn's benching for the first two games of the season. This has always been true to some extent, but this year seems extreme. We have, in Al's words, a six-and-one-half player rotation. I can't remember that before when we had nine seemingly good players.

If true, then why?


Last year must have been a huge disappointment for the coaching staff, and the disappointment was not only the last four games but also the generally poor defense.

Being the coach of the national team may have convinced K that you could improve the play of even the best players in the world: the national players have tended to have great seasons after a summer with their peers.

He's 65 years old, and he doesn't have to please anyone except himself.

He wants a fifth (and sixth) title really badly.

Just a thought.

sagegrouse

yeah, this makes a lot of sense

K was unusually demonstrative after the win vs tOSU, had some serious hugs with Collins, Wojo, Capel, and Nate

I think K realizes he has a very good group that is capable of winning in April, and that they seem to respond well to a firm touch
Wants to ride this horse all the way, and is not afraid to use the whip

loran16
11-30-2012, 12:00 PM
I did a quick review of the ESPN box scores for each game. Here is the breakdown:

GSU: 7 for the forwards and centers, 2 for the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
UK: 2 from the C, 1 from the PF, 5 from the SF (Poythress the freak show), and 1 from the PG
FGCU: 7 from the forwards, 6 from the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
Minn: 4 from the C, 4 from the PF, 6 from the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
VCU: 2 from the C, 5 from the PF, 8 from the guards (they played a 3-guard lineup)
Lou: 2 from the C, 7 from the PF, 1 from the SF, 3 from the guards
OSU: 6 from the C, 0 from the PF, 4 from the SF, 6 from the guards

As you can see, there is a LOT of guard work crashing the glass. The OSU and UK games are the ones in which we faced a substantial size difference at SF (Thompson/Ross for OSU; Poythress for UK) and in those games the SF punished us on the offensive glass. But we've allowed 28 offensive rebounds to guards and 57 offensive rebounds to forwards/centers. 28 offensive rebounds (4 per game) by guards is a pretty large number, and does suggest that it's not simply a lack of size at SF that is hurting us on the offensive glass.

You've misunderstood me. If lack of size was why we were failing to rebound, then I would not be suggesting replacing Ryan Kelly with Josh Hairston on the floor. It is ENTIRELY positioning. Ryan's D takes him away from the basket and he's rarely in position to block out. Mason is, but can only block out one guy. There's the issue.

I suggested Marshall would improve our defensive rebounding because both Mason and Miles are solid defensive rebounders.

Now yes, adding more minutes for Jiggy and for potentially Marshall would result in the team losing shooting ability on the other end. On the other hand, it may be worth considering because:
A. The improvement in defense might be worth it; and
B. If it results in an improvement in offensive rebounding - Ryan's ORebound% rate generally hovers around 6-7%, which is what we would call lousy (Again this is because of where he plays). Hairston's is 10-11% in his limited time, which is decent. Miles was up to 16% which is terrific last year. Improvements in offensive rebounding would negate the loss of Ryan's shooting ability to a good extent.

This is not suggesting benching Ryan for those guys, just that perhaps we ought to try the other guys out to see if it's a more efficient result.

CDu
11-30-2012, 05:30 PM
You've misunderstood me. If lack of size was why we were failing to rebound, then I would not be suggesting replacing Ryan Kelly with Josh Hairston on the floor. It is ENTIRELY positioning. Ryan's D takes him away from the basket and he's rarely in position to block out. Mason is, but can only block out one guy. There's the issue.

First of all, you didn't suggest replacing Kelly with Hairston. You suggested going with Hairston AND Kelly (i.e., replacing a guard with Hairston). So that sure seemed like a "fix the problem by getting bigger" strategy.

As for your suggestion of merely subbing Hairston/Marshall for Kelly: if Kelly's defense takes him away from the basket, then Hairston/Marshall's defense would do the same, right? It's not like Kelly is aimlessly standing away from the basket on defense. He's out there because his man is out there. The same would be true of Hairston (or one of Mason/Marshall if Marshall is in).

My point in bringing up the guard rebounding was to illustrate that a substantial portion of the rebounding is coming because teams frequently draw our bigs away from the basket. In those situations, our guards have to do a better job of getting to the glass (or at least keeping the other guards off the glass). It doesn't matter which bigs are on the floor; if they are defending on the perimeter, they aren't going to be rebounding.


I suggested Marshall would improve our defensive rebounding because both Mason and Miles are solid defensive rebounders.

That is a reasonable hypothesis if you assume that Marshall and Mason will play together a fair amount. But I don't think we'll see much of Mason and Marshall together much because I don't think we want to have Mason (or Marshall) defending the PF spot. I don't think either is well-suited to handle that role at the college level.


Now yes, adding more minutes for Jiggy and for potentially Marshall would result in the team losing shooting ability on the other end. On the other hand, it may be worth considering because:
A. The improvement in defense might be worth it; and
B. If it results in an improvement in offensive rebounding - Ryan's ORebound% rate generally hovers around 6-7%, which is what we would call lousy (Again this is because of where he plays). Hairston's is 10-11% in his limited time, which is decent. Miles was up to 16% which is terrific last year. Improvements in offensive rebounding would negate the loss of Ryan's shooting ability to a good extent.

I don't think (A) is likely to happen, mainly because I don't think replacing Kelly with Marshall or Hairston would actually improve the defense. Kelly has become a terrific defender (almost assuredly better than Hairston or Marshall), so you'd be trading a potential (not guaranteed, as I discussed above) increase in defense rebounds for a reduction in actual defense (i.e., increase in fg% against, fouls committed, etc).

As for (B), the offensive rebound rate would have to go up a lot to offset the probable downgrade defensively and the loss of (1) the offensive production Kelly provides, (2) the space Kelly provides by dragging a help defender away from Mason, and (3) the ballhandling/passing skills Kelly provides (especially in breaking the press).


This is not suggesting benching Ryan for those guys, just that perhaps we ought to try the other guys out to see if it's a more efficient result.

Well, I would certainly HOPE you weren't suggesting we bench a potential All-ACC player in Kelly for a couple of guys with VERY short resumes. That would be a bit rash. But as I discuss above in this post, I'm really struggling to see how either Hairston or Marshall would make the team more efficient than Kelly does.

This discussion seems like a classic example of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. The team, as it is currently constructed, very efficient on offense and pretty efficient on defense, too. I think we're better off making changes on the margins (getting more minutes for Marshall taken from Hairston and Jefferson, placing a little more emphasis on preventing guard rebounds, etc.