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Wander
10-21-2012, 10:26 AM
Why not? We've played 8 games, and we still control our own destiny in the ACC. Meaning: if we win out, we win the coastal.

But, we could lose our games to Florida State and Clemson and still realistically be in it. The most likely path is probably: Duke beats Georgia Tech and Miami, and Virginia Tech loses to Miami and Florida State. That would mean Duke is 5-3, Virginia Tech is (at best) 4-4, and Duke has the tiebreaker against everyone else.

That's not the only option though. If Duke beats Georgia Tech and Miami, and Virginia Tech loses to Miami but still wins out otherwise, Duke will win any three- or four- way tiebreaker. That's because Duke will be 4-1 against coastal teams, and everyone else would have multiple losses against coastal teams.

An upset against FSU or Clemson makes things a little easier, but those games aren't as important as the ones against the final two against Georgia Tech and Miami. There's probably a fringe scenario or two where Duke goes 1-3 and still wins the coastal through some more complex tiebreakers, but let's not entertain that idea for now.

In summary: root for Miami against Virginia Tech this Thursday night. It's the most important non-Duke football game for the rest of our season. If Miami wins, Duke will likely (not guaranteed, but likely) control its own destiny, even if we lose to FSU and Clemson.

MarkD83
10-21-2012, 11:28 AM
This is a vigil worth keeping at the top, since this is very positive and there are several very realistic possibilities for this to happen.

MarkD83
10-21-2012, 11:31 AM
Oh and by the way anyone who wants to connect duke basketball bad luck and duke football wins.....Marshall is out for 6-8 weeks so everything is all square on that front.

Let's see 6-8 weeks that would be just after the ACC football championship.

davekay1971
10-21-2012, 11:51 AM
I posted something like this in the 2012 football thread, but will make a couple quick points in this excellent thread.

Of our 4 remaining games, I think we have a great shot at winning 2, with FSU and Clemson being the longer shots, and GT and Miami very winnable. Frankly, I think we're a better team on both sides of the ball than GT. Miami is talented, but UNCheat beat them, and State played a terrible game almost beat them.

If we beat GT and Miami, and VT loses to FSU and Miami, we are in the Championship game. If we beat everyone but FSU, and VT loses one, we're in.

Vegas odds will be against us. Heather Dinich, who's been positive about Duke, barely considered us in her blog today talking about how open the Coastal is (her log mainly focused on VT still having every chance of winning it). I'm not crying about that...most people out there are probably thinking "great for Duke, they're probably going to end up 6-6 or maybe 7-5." But I bet the guys on our team are starting to think about the next goals, now that they're going bowling...undefeated home season, and Coastal Division champs.

Native
10-21-2012, 12:03 PM
Why not?

Exactly.

MarkD83
10-21-2012, 12:06 PM
I posted something like this in the 2012 football thread, but will make a couple quick points in this excellent thread.

Of our 4 remaining games, I think we have a great shot at winning 2, with FSU and Clemson being the longer shots, and GT and Miami very winnable. Frankly, I think we're a better team on both sides of the ball than GT. Miami is talented, but UNCheat beat them, and State played a terrible game almost beat them.

If we beat GT and Miami, and VT loses to FSU and Miami, we are in the Championship game. If we beat everyone but FSU, and VT loses one, we're in.

Vegas odds will be against us. Heather Dinich, who's been positive about Duke, barely considered us in her blog today talking about how open the Coastal is (her log mainly focused on VT still having every chance of winning it). I'm not crying about that...most people out there are probably thinking "great for Duke, they're probably going to end up 6-6 or maybe 7-5." But I bet the guys on our team are starting to think about the next goals, now that they're going bowling...undefeated home season, and Coastal Division champs.

I also looked through the schedule and have the coastal race down to 3 critical games. Here is the rest of the schedule with some realistic Ws and Ls

VT: Loss to FSU; Wins vs BC and UVA; Critical game at Miami
Miami: Win vs UVA; Critical games v VT and at Duke
Duke: Losses to FSU and Clemson; Critical games at GT and Miami.

So the three critical games are VT @ Miami; Duke @ GT and Miami @ Duke. If Duke beats GT and Miami the only help they need would be Miami to beat VT and FSU to beat VT.

Final records in coastal with this scenario:

Duke 5-3
Miami 5-3
VT 4-4
GT 4-4 (with wins against UNC and Md)
UNC - not eligible
UVA - won't matter

Wander
10-21-2012, 12:16 PM
So the three critical games are VT @ Miami; Duke @ GT and Miami @ Duke. If Duke beats GT and Miami the only help they need would be Miami to beat VT and FSU to beat VT.


Just to reiterate my point above: FSU beating VT isn't even necessary. If Miami beats VT, then we only need FSU to beat VT OR Miami to beat UVA. That's because, if Duke beats Miami, Duke will have the tiebreaker between a 5-3 Duke team, a 5-3 VT team, and a 5-3 Miami team.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that at least one of FSU beats VT or Miami beats UVA happens. So, you're right, the Miami@VT game is really the critical one.

MarkD83
10-21-2012, 12:23 PM
Just to reiterate my point above: FSU beating VT isn't even necessary. If Miami beats VT, then we only need FSU to beat VT OR Miami to beat UVA. That's because, if Duke beats Miami, Duke will have the tiebreaker between a 5-3 Duke team, a 5-3 VT team, and a 5-3 Miami team.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that at least one of FSU beats VT or Miami beats UVA happens. So, you're right, the Miami@VT game is really the critical one.

Wander, thanks for the correction. I was not thinking about a 3-way tie-breaker.

ForkFondler
10-21-2012, 06:59 PM
This is a vigil worth keeping at the top, since this is very positive and there are several very realistic possibilities for this to happen.Winning the Coastal division is a reaslitic possibility, but it wouldn't necessarily be all that positive to win it. For example, suppose Duke, Miami, VT and GT all end up with a conference record of 4-4, all tied for second behind UNC.

Acymetric
10-21-2012, 07:13 PM
Winning the Coastal division is a reaslitic possibility, but it wouldn't necessarily be all that positive to win it. For example, suppose Duke, Miami, VT and GT all end up with a conference record of 4-4, all tied for second behind UNC.

You have to do some pretty elaborate mental gymnastics to come to that kind of conclusion about Duke winning their division in the ACC and making the Conference Championship game.

ForkFondler
10-21-2012, 07:48 PM
^^^^^^^^^^^
It's been a great season already. Backing into the title game would not be a significant improvement.

Olympic Fan
10-21-2012, 08:04 PM
^^^^^^^^^^^
It's been a great season already. Backing into the title game would not be a significant improvement.

How exactly would we be backing into the title game?

Under any realistic scenario, we would have to win our last two games ... most likely it comes down to the final game of the season with Miami at Duke with the winner getting the division title and the spot in the title game. Great atmosphere in Wade again with something significant -- a division title -- on the line.

That's "backing into the title game"?

Winning a division title is not a significant improvement? Since the ACC has gone to divisions, our two big-time football programs on Tobacco Road -- UNCheat and NC State -- have NEVER won a division title.

I can't imagine by what convoluted logic you think that's a bad thing.

Sir Stealth
10-21-2012, 08:07 PM
^^^^^^^^^^^
It's been a great season already. Backing into the title game would not be a significant improvement.

Playing for a championship is what it's all about, period. No matter how you get there. This program has had some high moments poke up from time to time, but it hasn't had the chance to play for a championship in 23 years. So yeah, it would be a significant improvement.

Lunchab1es
10-21-2012, 09:04 PM
The fact that this thread exists fills me with joy. As a survivor of 3 of the "Roof years", this kind of thinking and level of success was previously so impossible that it is a joyous challenge to try to fathom our current situation.

I've already started making travel plans for the prospective bowl game... as long as it's not too far West, I will likely make the pilgrimage.

Let's cross our collective fingers and hope the right teams win!

devildeac
10-21-2012, 09:39 PM
^^^^^^^^^^^
It's been a great season already. Backing into the title game would not be a significant improvement.


How exactly would we be backing into the title game?

Under any realistic scenario, we would have to win our last two games ... most likely it comes down to the final game of the season with Miami at Duke with the winner getting the division title and the spot in the title game. Great atmosphere in Wade again with something significant -- a division title -- on the line.

That's "backing into the title game"?

Winning a division title is not a significant improvement? Since the ACC has gone to divisions, our two big-time football programs on Tobacco Road -- UNCheat and NC State -- have NEVER won a division title.

I can't imagine by what convoluted logic you think that's a bad thing.

Backing in? I wouldn't care if we had a pick 6, fumble recovery, blocked FG/PAT, KO/punt return TD, 99 yard TD pass from from Renfree to Crowder or Vernon or a 1 yard QB sneak by Boone to propel us into the title game with a record of 4-4 or 7-1, I'll take it. And be damned proud and giddy about it, too.

Dukehky
10-21-2012, 11:11 PM
I think that the FSU game will be a real measuring stick about where Duke really is with the program. Carolina was a HUGE win, but FSU has more athleticism, size, and more importantly skill at nearly every position except maybe RB, and FSU's stable of backs is pretty damn good. I do not expect to win in Tallahassee next Saturday, but I would love for us to not have an emotional letdown after the Carolina game, and hopefully keep the game relatively competitive.

But I think we're better than State, and State beat FSU, so you never know.

I've been to every Duke/Carolina football game since I was five years old. It was a damn good feeling to walk out of Wallace Wade Stadium feeling the way I did. My great-grandmother was at the Rose Bowl all those years ago, felt like she was carrying me back to the car.

DU82
10-21-2012, 11:12 PM
How exactly would we be backing into the title game?

Under any realistic scenario, we would have to win our last two games ... most likely it comes down to the final game of the season with Miami at Duke with the winner getting the division title and the spot in the title game. Great atmosphere in Wade again with something significant -- a division title -- on the line.



One problem is that the Miami game is after Thanksgiving, so the students will not be there in force as they were for the Cheaters from down the road. (One reason that game was moved to October was to have the students there.)

Hopefully many will come back early.

Wander
10-21-2012, 11:16 PM
But I think we're better than State, and State beat FSU, so you never know.


Speaking of which, the other half of the ACC championship picture: I don't know why Jimbo Fisher says FSU controls their own destiny, because they don't. NC State has one league loss and the tiebreaker over FSU. Three of their remaining games are home matches with Virginia, Wake Forest, and Boston College. I'm just saying...

Greg_Newton
10-22-2012, 02:24 AM
I think that the FSU game will be a real measuring stick about where Duke really is with the program. Carolina was a HUGE win, but FSU has more athleticism, size, and more importantly skill at nearly every position except maybe RB, and FSU's stable of backs is pretty damn good. I do not expect to win in Tallahassee next Saturday, but I would love for us to not have an emotional letdown after the Carolina game, and hopefully keep the game relatively competitive.

While I agree with your overall point, I've been wondering about this, specifically with the lines. I've seen three of UNC's offensive lineman as projected high-round draft picks, along with Sylvester Williams and likely Kareem Martin on the defensive side of the line. If FSU has more high-end talent at those positions, it can't be by much, right?

Reilly
10-27-2012, 07:04 AM
Wander, thanks for the correction. I was not thinking about a 3-way tie-breaker.

Reading one the FSU game articles linked on the front page, article says 3-way tiebreaker is BCS standings. Is that right?

"The Seminoles, at this point, seem all but certain to finish ahead of division rivals Clemson and North Carolina State in the BCS rankings, which would give them the tiebreaker needed to reach the ACC title game in case those three teams finish tied in the conference standings."

Reilly
10-27-2012, 07:24 AM
BCS standings are the 7th tie-breaker in case of a 3-way tie, per p. 10 of the ACC Guide ...

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/acc/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2012-13/misc_non_event/12accfbguide.pdf

Wander
10-29-2012, 12:13 PM
There isn't much to update from the coastal division this weekend, with a lot of teams on bye weeks. The best path for Duke is still: beat Georgia Tech and Miami, have Miami beat Virginia Tech this Thursday night, and then have either (or both) of FSU beating Virginia Tech or Miami beating UVA.

The Atlantic division became more settled though. Wake and BC are mathematically eliminated; Maryland is functionally eliminated now that they're on their 12-string quarterback or whatever. NC State really hurt themselves - they had a realistic shot at winning the division before, but now they'd need to win out, which would include a road win at Clemson, AND have FSU lose to Virginia Tech or Maryland. Pretty unlikely.

The breakdown is probably something like FSU (75% chance), Clemson (20%), or NC State (5%), vs Duke (33%), Virginia Tech (33%) or Miami (33%).

Olympic Fan
10-30-2012, 05:41 PM
There isn't much to update from the coastal division this weekend, with a lot of teams on bye weeks. The best path for Duke is still: beat Georgia Tech and Miami, have Miami beat Virginia Tech this Thursday night, and then have either (or both) of FSU beating Virginia Tech or Miami beating UVA.

The Atlantic division became more settled though. Wake and BC are mathematically eliminated; Maryland is functionally eliminated now that they're on their 12-string quarterback or whatever. NC State really hurt themselves - they had a realistic shot at winning the division before, but now they'd need to win out, which would include a road win at Clemson, AND have FSU lose to Virginia Tech or Maryland. Pretty unlikely.

The breakdown is probably something like FSU (75% chance), Clemson (20%), or NC State (5%), vs Duke (33%), Virginia Tech (33%) or Miami (33%).

I've been looking at the schedule and the more I look, the more important I think it's going to be for Miami to beat Virginia Tech Thursday night in Miami.

Just to be clear, I'm going on the optimistic, but not unreasomable assumption that Duke loses to Clemson this week, but beats Georgia Tech and Miami to finish 5-3 in the ACC.

Va Tech is dangeous for us since they have a head-to-head tiebreaker. That might might not matter if we get in a three-way tiebreaker with UNC (since we beat UNC and they didn't), but with UNC's win over NC State, I think there's a real danger that they finish 6-2 in the ACC. They are 3-2 now with home games with Georgia Tech and Maryland, plus a road game at Virginia. I know they usually struggle in C'ville, but I wouldn't want to count on this Virginia team beating them. No problem with them being 6-2, since they are cheaters and can't win the division, but we really need them in a tiebreaker with us and Va Tech.

We'd also be okay in a three-way tie with Virginia Tech and Miami -- assuming we beat Miami and Miami beats Va Tech. But if Va Tech beats Miami Thursday night, then when we beat them (not saying we definitely will, but if we don't, most unlikely we're in the title mix), then the 'Canes would have 4 ACC losses and that would leave us and Virginia Tech (assuming they lose to FSU next week) tied at 5-3 ... and we lose a two-way tie.

In terms of winning the Coastal Division, our chances are reasonable IF Miami beats Va Tech. If the Hokies win in Miami, then we'd almost have to win out to finish ahead of them -- and that means beating Clemson (a real longshot IMHO).

So pull like crazy for Miami Thursday night!

BigWayne
10-30-2012, 06:45 PM
I've been looking at the schedule and the more I look, the more important I think it's going to be for Miami to beat Virginia Tech Thursday night in Miami.

Just to be clear, I'm going on the optimistic, but not unreasomable assumption that Duke loses to Clemson this week, but beats Georgia Tech and Miami to finish 5-3 in the ACC.

Va Tech is dangeous for us since they have a head-to-head tiebreaker. That might might not matter if we get in a three-way tiebreaker with UNC (since we beat UNC and they didn't), but with UNC's win over NC State, I think there's a real danger that they finish 6-2 in the ACC. They are 3-2 now with home games with Georgia Tech and Maryland, plus a road game at Virginia. I know they usually struggle in C'ville, but I wouldn't want to count on this Virginia team beating them. No problem with them being 6-2, since they are cheaters and can't win the division, but we really need them in a tiebreaker with us and Va Tech.

We'd also be okay in a three-way tie with Virginia Tech and Miami -- assuming we beat Miami and Miami beats Va Tech. But if Va Tech beats Miami Thursday night, then when we beat them (not saying we definitely will, but if we don't, most unlikely we're in the title mix), then the 'Canes would have 4 ACC losses and that would leave us and Virginia Tech (assuming they lose to FSU next week) tied at 5-3 ... and we lose a two-way tie.

In terms of winning the Coastal Division, our chances are reasonable IF Miami beats Va Tech. If the Hokies win in Miami, then we'd almost have to win out to finish ahead of them -- and that means beating Clemson (a real longshot IMHO).

So pull like crazy for Miami Thursday night!

3 way tie with UNC does not matter as they are already eliminated from any tie breaking procedure. Note that in the three way tie break, it is only used to eliminate one team, then the two team tie break is used.

The thing we have going for us is if Miami beats VT and we beat Miami, then VT and Miami would both have two in division losses, which knocks both of them out of the tiebreak at the same time. If VT beats Miami, then even if they lose to FSU, we lose the tiebreak on head to head.

All the speculation will get a lot simpler after Thursday.

Olympic Fan
10-31-2012, 05:02 PM
3 way tie with UNC does not matter as they are already eliminated from any tie breaking procedure. Note that in the three way tie break, it is only used to eliminate one team, then the two team tie break is used.

The thing we have going for us is if Miami beats VT and we beat Miami, then VT and Miami would both have two in division losses, which knocks both of them out of the tiebreak at the same time. If VT beats Miami, then even if they lose to FSU, we lose the tiebreak on head to head.

All the speculation will get a lot simpler after Thursday.

Actually, having UNC in a three-way tie WOULD help us. They can't win the division, but they are NOT eliminated from any tiebreaker procedure. While they can't win, they would negate the head-to-head aspect of the Duke-Virginia Tech game ... I checked with the ACC office with this. If Duke, Va Tech and UNC end up 5-3, they are all 1-1 against each other and it goes to the next tiebreak (division record).

I agree this is probably a moot point -- UNC is not likely to finish 5-3. And it is extreemly unlikely that Duke, VPI and Miami all end up 5-3 (I guess it could happen if VPI loses to Miami and beats FSU).

PS Interesting point -- the Big Ten is going to allow Ohio State to win their division in the Big Ten and is even going to give them a trophy if they do -- even though Ohio State is on probation and ineligible for the Big Ten title game or a bowl game.

The ACC, on the other hand, has specifically ruled that UNC is NOT eligible to win the Coastal Division -- even if they finish with the best record. Of course, that won't stop UNC from claiming the title ... but the league will not recognize it. Another interesting point -- if Miami wins the dovision, then there's a good chance that they could lose the title in the future. There is every likelihood that Miami is going to be hammered by the NCAA -- include forfeiture of a ton of games. But I'm told that no chance of any penalties being handed down before the end of this football season (next spring/summer is most likely).

BigWayne
10-31-2012, 09:35 PM
Actually, having UNC in a three-way tie WOULD help us. They can't win the division, but they are NOT eliminated from any tiebreaker procedure. While they can't win, they would negate the head-to-head aspect of the Duke-Virginia Tech game ... I checked with the ACC office with this. If Duke, Va Tech and UNC end up 5-3, they are all 1-1 against each other and it goes to the next tiebreak (division record).

I agree this is probably a moot point -- UNC is not likely to finish 5-3. And it is extreemly unlikely that Duke, VPI and Miami all end up 5-3 (I guess it could happen if VPI loses to Miami and beats FSU).

PS Interesting point -- the Big Ten is going to allow Ohio State to win their division in the Big Ten and is even going to give them a trophy if they do -- even though Ohio State is on probation and ineligible for the Big Ten title game or a bowl game.

The ACC, on the other hand, has specifically ruled that UNC is NOT eligible to win the Coastal Division -- even if they finish with the best record. Of course, that won't stop UNC from claiming the title ... but the league will not recognize it. Another interesting point -- if Miami wins the dovision, then there's a good chance that they could lose the title in the future. There is every likelihood that Miami is going to be hammered by the NCAA -- include forfeiture of a ton of games. But I'm told that no chance of any penalties being handed down before the end of this football season (next spring/summer is most likely). Well OK, if you checked with the ACC and they really say they will use UNC in the tiebreak. Seems pretty squirrely though. There is a very good chance they end up at 6-2 anyway like you allude.

ForkFondler
11-01-2012, 12:27 AM
Well OK, if you checked with the ACC and they really say they will use UNC in the tiebreak. Seems pretty squirrely though. There is a very good chance they end up at 6-2 anyway like you allude.


Pre-tiebreak or post-tie break makes equal sense to me -- there really is no one right way to eliminate cheaters for cheating.

Reilly
11-01-2012, 08:41 AM
... The ACC, on the other hand, has specifically ruled that UNC is NOT eligible to win the Coastal Division ... Of course, that won't stop UNC from claiming the title ....

2012 ACC Coastal Division Football Champions*

* as recognized by Cafe Carolina & Bakery

Dev11
11-01-2012, 11:28 AM
Miami vs VT at 7:30 on ESPN. Let's go Canes

Wander
11-01-2012, 11:42 AM
Miami vs VT at 7:30 on ESPN. Let's go Canes

This can't be stressed enough: the Miami-VT game tonight is the most important non-Duke game of the season for us. One could maybe even argue it's more important than the Duke-Clemson game this weekend. Go Canes!

Wander
11-01-2012, 09:08 PM
So far, so good. Miami up 8 at halftime, though I'm a little worried that Miami's scores all seem to come from weird plays rather than sustained drives.

Reilly
11-01-2012, 10:48 PM
Miami 4-2 [@UVA, @Duke]
Duke 3-2 [Clemson, @GT, Miami]
VT 2-3 [FSU, @BC, UVa]
GT 2-3 [@MD, @UNC, Duke]
UVA 0-4 [@NCSU, Miami, UNC, @VT]

----------------------

UNC 3-2 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [GT, @UVa, MD]

loran16
11-01-2012, 11:14 PM
Miami 4-2 [@UVA, @Duke]
Duke 3-2 [Clemson, @GT, Miami]
VT 2-3 [FSU, @BC, UVa]
GT 2-3 [@MD, @UNC, Duke]
UVA 0-4 [@NCSU, Miami, UNC, @VT]

----------------------

UNC 3-2 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [GT, @UVa, MD]

We are in business. Beat GT and the last game of the season is the de facto title game for the Coastal.

Duvall
11-01-2012, 11:22 PM
We are in business. Beat GT and the last game of the season is the de facto title game for the Coastal.

Well, assuming a Miami win at Virginia or a Virginia Tech loss to Florida State.

Wander
11-01-2012, 11:22 PM
We are in business. Beat GT and the last game of the season is the de facto title game for the Coastal.

Yup. We still technically need one of...

Duke beats Clemson
Miami beats UVA
FSU beats Virginia Tech

... to also happen. But the chances of none of those happening are very slim. Great result for us tonight.

loran16
11-01-2012, 11:26 PM
Yup. We still technically need one of...

Duke beats Clemson
Miami beats UVA
FSU beats Virginia Tech

... to also happen. But the chances of none of those happening are very slim. Great result for us tonight.

Right, I think we're all assuming at least #2 occurs if not #s 2 and 3.

Wander
11-01-2012, 11:31 PM
loran, promise me you'll never change your signature. Or at least not until we eventually beat Virginia Tech.

loran16
11-01-2012, 11:41 PM
loran, promise me you'll never change your signature. Or at least not until we eventually beat Virginia Tech.

Swear to god, I thought we had it this year. But yeah, until then it's staying.

devildeac
11-02-2012, 02:03 PM
Considering we lost to the turkies, 41-20 and Miami beat them, I have become a whole lot more worried about our game with the 'Canes at WW after Thanksgiving.

Duvall
11-02-2012, 02:33 PM
Considering we lost to the turkies, 41-20 and Miami beat them, I have become a whole lot more worried about our game with the 'Canes at WW after Thanksgiving.

I would be more worried if Miami had played well last night. Score notwithstanding, they didn't look all that great.

Lar77
11-02-2012, 02:52 PM
I would be more worried if Miami had played well last night. Score notwithstanding, they didn't look all that great.


We got beat by VT in Blacksburg. Last night was in Miami. I'd call it a home game but I was shocked how many empty seats there were (almost as many as at Cameron last night). I missed the first half but VT offense looked atrocious in the second half (and Miami didn't look any better until the end). Loved hearing the announcers say the Coastal Division title may come down to the game at Wallace Wade.

Wander
11-02-2012, 03:02 PM
I would be more worried if Miami had played well last night. Score notwithstanding, they didn't look all that great.

Agreed. Miami was something like 0-10 on third downs well into the 2nd half.

Also by the same sort of transitive logic, Duke > UNC > Miami :)

Olympic Fan
11-02-2012, 03:06 PM
I know we all understand how faulty transititive logic is. After all UNC beat Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech beat Duke and Duke beat UNC.

So Miami beat Virginia Tech and Virginia Tech beat Duke ... but UNC beat Miami and Duke beat UNC.

None of that translates from one game to another.

I will say that all the teams we're talking about -- including Duke -- have played MUCH better at home than on the road (although UNC did beat Miami in Miami).

CameronBlue
11-02-2012, 03:40 PM
I know we all understand how faulty transititive logic is. After all UNC beat Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech beat Duke and Duke beat UNC.


And.....thusly? It's not faulty at all because as we know, only UNC can beat UNC. That's what hole fans tell us anyway.

sagegrouse
11-02-2012, 03:42 PM
Agreed. Miami was something like 0-10 on third downs well into the 2nd half.

Also by the same sort of transitive logic, Duke > UNC > Miami :)

When I pulled the plug, Miami had not made a first down in the second half. I was surprised to read that the Canes not only had won but also had extended their lead.

-- sage

cato
11-02-2012, 04:02 PM
After all UNC beat Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech beat Duke and Duke beat UNC.

So what you're saying is . . . UNC beat itself?

Gewebe14
11-02-2012, 04:27 PM
So what you're saying is . . . UNC beat itself?

Actually, that does seem to be a pretty fair assessment of exactly what has been going on the chapelhill athletics programs ever since about 2010.

SCMatt33
11-02-2012, 05:27 PM
Considering we lost to the turkies, 41-20 and Miami beat them, I have become a whole lot more worried about our game with the 'Canes at WW after Thanksgiving.

Yeah, but the transitive property never applies to games of different location. We got VT in Blacksburg, where they have been very respectable. Miami got them in a road game, where VT is yet to win a game this year, including two losses to Big East teams. We played a totally different team than Miami did.

devildeac
11-02-2012, 08:57 PM
I would be more worried if Miami had played well last night. Score notwithstanding, they didn't look all that great.

That is comforting to read. Seriously.

PumpkinFunk
11-02-2012, 09:02 PM
I posted this in the "Bowl Selection vigil" thread, but it probably is more appropriate to go here: Miami could self-impose a bowl ban, which would also mean that they would be self-imposing an ACC Championship Game ban for the season. I'm sure we all want to win the Coastal on our own terms, but this would presumably help us more than anyone else in the Coastal.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/02/3079888_miami-hurricanes-might-decide.html#storylink=addthis

SCMatt33
11-02-2012, 09:48 PM
I posted this in the "Bowl Selection vigil" thread, but it probably is more appropriate to go here: Miami could self-impose a bowl ban, which would also mean that they would be self-imposing an ACC Championship Game ban for the season. I'm sure we all want to win the Coastal on our own terms, but this would presumably help us more than anyone else in the Coastal.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/02/3079888_miami-hurricanes-might-decide.html#storylink=addthis

Does this really make that much of a difference to us. Any scenario in which we are 4-3 heading into the finale would require a Duke win to clinch the coastal (unless VT lays an egg against BC or UVA), even if Miami has already taken themselves out of it. The only realistic scenario that I see in which it makes a big difference is if Duke wins the next two, Miami holds against UVA (and then announces the ban), and VT loses 1 more. Then, the game goes from a big time match-up of 5-2 teams for the division to a coronation for Duke.

uh_no
11-02-2012, 10:37 PM
I posted this in the "Bowl Selection vigil" thread, but it probably is more appropriate to go here: Miami could self-impose a bowl ban, which would also mean that they would be self-imposing an ACC Championship Game ban for the season. I'm sure we all want to win the Coastal on our own terms, but this would presumably help us more than anyone else in the Coastal.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/02/3079888_miami-hurricanes-might-decide.html#storylink=addthis

Not really. regardless of whether miami imposes the ban, we still need to win two more games, and we still need FSU to beat VT....otherwise VT takes the division...it just means our two wins can be against clemson and GT instead of gt and miami....which doesn't really help us all that much..but if VT were two lose one of their two cupcakes to end the season, then yeah, we could go to the championship by just beating GT

loran16
11-02-2012, 10:45 PM
Not really. regardless of whether miami imposes the ban, we still need to win two more games, and we still need FSU to beat VT....otherwise VT takes the division...it just means our two wins can be against clemson and GT instead of gt and miami....which doesn't really help us all that much..but if VT were two lose one of their two cupcakes to end the season, then yeah, we could go to the championship by just beating GT

Actually no. If Miami is not banned, then if Miami beats UVA, FSU/VT doesn't matter - because Duke winning two and VT winning out would result in a 5-3 3 way tie, which Duke wins by virtue of coastal division record. If Miami IS banned, then Vt beats Duke via head to head tiebreaker.

In otherwords, with Miami Bowl Eligible, the scenarios are this:
Duke makes ACC Championship game with:
2 wins including one over Miami; AND
Either a VT loss (presumably to FSU) OR a Miami win over UVA

If Miami is NOT bowl eligible due to a ban, the scenario becomes:
Duke wins 2 games (It could lose against Miami); AND
VT loses at least 1 game.

Duke is eligible regardless with winning out.

Practically, I don't think any of us think VT will beat FSU.....but it does make that scenario a problem if Miami bans itself.

uh_no
11-02-2012, 11:25 PM
Actually no. If Miami is not banned, then if Miami beats UVA, FSU/VT doesn't matter - because Duke winning two and VT winning out would result in a 5-3 3 way tie, which Duke wins by virtue of coastal division record. If Miami IS banned, then Vt beats Duke via head to head tiebreaker.

In otherwords, with Miami Bowl Eligible, the scenarios are this:
Duke makes ACC Championship game with:
2 wins including one over Miami; AND
Either a VT loss (presumably to FSU) OR a Miami win over UVA

If Miami is NOT bowl eligible due to a ban, the scenario becomes:
Duke wins 2 games (It could lose against Miami); AND
VT loses at least 1 game.

Duke is eligible regardless with winning out.

Practically, I don't think any of us think VT will beat FSU.....but it does make that scenario a problem if Miami bans itself.

ah. I thought the tiebreaker was head to head!

thanks for the knowledge!

Olympic Fan
11-03-2012, 11:15 AM
I've mentioned this before -- banned teams DO count in tiebreakers, even if they can't win themselves. This came up with North Carolina, when it loiked like they might be in the 5-3 mix (they still could be, but after beating State, it looks more like they finish 6-2 in the ACC).

Now, I think FSU will beat Va Tech to make the Hokies 4-4 in the ACC, but if they don't and we get a three-way tie between 5-3 Duke, 5-3 Miami (on self-imposed probation) and 5-3 Virginia Tech, the 'Canes DO count in the head-to-head tiebreaker ... and thus all three are 1-1 head-to-head and it goes to the division record -- and Duke wins that.

It's very simple. If Duke beats either Clemson or Georgia Tech AND Miami, then Duke almost certainly will play in Charlotte.

There is just one very unlikely scenario that could prevent this from happening. If Virginia were to upset Miami, then Duke beating the 'Canes would leave them at 4-4 ... so Duke and Virginia Tech would end up tied at 5-3 and Virginia Tech would win the head-to-head tiebreaker.

But aside from Duke winning two more (as long as one of them is Miami), the Miami-Virginia game is more important than the FSU-Va Tech game.

Wander
11-03-2012, 11:28 AM
But aside from Duke winning two more (as long as one of them is Miami), the Miami-Virginia game is more important than the FSU-Va Tech game.

I'm not sure why one of these games would be more important than the other. As you note, the only way victories against Georgia Tech and Miami leave us as not the Coastal division champs is if both Virginia beats Miami and VT beats FSU. The two games seem to have equal weight to me - we need a desirable outcome in either one of them. Unless you mean that Virginia beating Miami is more unlikely than VT beating FSU.

It's so unlikely that it's probably not even worth discussing, but I think Duke beating Clemson but losing to Georgia Tech would not guarantee us as champs, because then Georgia Tech could become involved in the tiebreakers too.

loran16
11-03-2012, 12:36 PM
I've mentioned this before -- banned teams DO count in tiebreakers, even if they can't win themselves. This came up with North Carolina, when it loiked like they might be in the 5-3 mix (they still could be, but after beating State, it looks more like they finish 6-2 in the ACC).

Now, I think FSU will beat Va Tech to make the Hokies 4-4 in the ACC, but if they don't and we get a three-way tie between 5-3 Duke, 5-3 Miami (on self-imposed probation) and 5-3 Virginia Tech, the 'Canes DO count in the head-to-head tiebreaker ... and thus all three are 1-1 head-to-head and it goes to the division record -- and Duke wins that.

It's very simple. If Duke beats either Clemson or Georgia Tech AND Miami, then Duke almost certainly will play in Charlotte.

There is just one very unlikely scenario that could prevent this from happening. If Virginia were to upset Miami, then Duke beating the 'Canes would leave them at 4-4 ... so Duke and Virginia Tech would end up tied at 5-3 and Virginia Tech would win the head-to-head tiebreaker.

But aside from Duke winning two more (as long as one of them is Miami), the Miami-Virginia game is more important than the FSU-Va Tech game.

Link? It'd be stupid for banned teams to count for 3-way tiebreakers.

Bluedog
11-03-2012, 02:13 PM
Link? It'd be stupid for banned teams to count for 3-way tiebreakers.

Olympic Fan called the ACC office and they confirmed UNC would be included in any tiebreakers even though they themselves can't win the division. Nice detective work Oly!

JasonEvans
11-03-2012, 07:12 PM
Just want to point out that pretty much nothing in the ACC is guaranteed. Lots of us are assuming wins or losses for various teams, but one need only look at this to know that the unexpected can always happen --

Virginia 33, NC State 6

UVA came into that game on a 6-game losing streak and really had not been all that close in most of their ACC games. NC State is the reason Florida State is not in the national title conversation right now.

--Jason "whew, I cannot figure this league out!" Evans

Reilly
11-03-2012, 11:47 PM
Miami 4-2 [@UVA, @Duke]
Duke 3-3 [@GT, Miami]
GT 3-3 [@UNC, Duke]
VT 2-3 [FSU, @BC, UVa]
UVA 1-4 [Miami, UNC, @VT]

----------------------

UNC 3-2 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [GT, @UVa, MD]

devildeac
11-03-2012, 11:59 PM
Miami 4-2 [@UVA, @Duke]
Duke 3-3 [@GT, Miami]
GT 3-3 [@UNC, Duke]
VT 2-3 [FSU, @BC, UVa]
UVA 1-4 [Miami, UNC, @VT]

----------------------

UNC 3-2 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [GT, @UVa, MD]

Not a likely scenario, but could we have a 4 way tie with Duke, Miami, GT and VT all at 4-4? Anyone want to 'splain the tie-breakers in that situation?

uh_no
11-04-2012, 12:18 AM
Not a likely scenario, but could we have a 4 way tie with Duke, Miami, GT and VT all at 4-4? Anyone want to 'splain the tie-breakers in that situation?

believe its record against the division

Wander
11-04-2012, 12:59 AM
Not a likely scenario, but could we have a 4 way tie with Duke, Miami, GT and VT all at 4-4? Anyone want to 'splain the tie-breakers in that situation?

I'm not 100%, but I THINK Miami would win that - Miami and VT would be 2-1 against the remaining three teams, whereas Duke and GT would be 1-2, and then Miami wins the head-to-head tiebreaker over VT because of Thursday night.

I think you can add UNC to the potential 4-4 group too for a five way tie... (not that they can make it, but as pointed out by Oly, they'd be part of the tiebreakers)

ForkFondler
11-04-2012, 03:27 AM
I'm not 100%, but I THINK Miami would win that - Miami and VT would be 2-1 against the remaining three teams, whereas Duke and GT would be 1-2, and then Miami wins the head-to-head tiebreaker over VT because of Thursday night.

I think you can add UNC to the potential 4-4 group too for a five way tie... (not that they can make it, but as pointed out by Oly, they'd be part of the tiebreakers)

I think the only scenario where that happens involves UVa winning out, which would make them 4-4 too. So, six way tie.

devildeac
11-04-2012, 06:55 AM
I think the only scenario where that happens involves UVa winning out, which would make them 4-4 too. So, six way tie.

Yes, even that's possible. After all, they are on a roll beating NCSU yesterday:rolleyes:.

davekay1971
11-08-2012, 11:06 AM
Go FSU (over VT)

If FSU wins, then we're in control of our destiny still.

That's right...this is a bump. Keep it on the first page until either we've played the Championship game or we've been eliminated from playing in it.

Duvall
11-08-2012, 11:04 PM
Duke is two wins away from the ACC championship game, and three wins away from the Orange Bowl.

Reilly
11-08-2012, 11:06 PM
Miami 4-2 [@UVA, @Duke]
Duke 3-3 [@GT, Miami]
GT 3-3 [@UNC, Duke]
VT 2-4 [@BC, UVa]
UVA 1-4 [Miami, UNC, @VT]

----------------------

UNC 3-2 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [GT, @UVa, MD]

Wander
11-08-2012, 11:20 PM
In addition to us controlling our destiny, the game also locked FSU into the ACC championship game. Poor Clemson.

Duvall
11-08-2012, 11:31 PM
In addition to us controlling our destiny, the game also locked FSU into the ACC championship game. Poor Clemson.

Well, FSU could lose to Maryland and...

Nah, not going to bother finishing that. Poor Maryland.

JasonEvans
11-09-2012, 04:20 PM
There is serious talk out there that Miami may self-impose a bowl ban (http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2012-11-02/miami-acc-coastal-bcs-ncaa-investigation-bowl-game-postseason) this year to get a head start on what could be a serious slapdown by the NCAA for that huge booster case that broke a while ago.

It is not clear if they would make this decision prior to playing in the ACC Championship game, should they get there. If so, it is possible that the ACC would rule them ineligible for the ACC Championship game.

I want to make it to the Championship by earning it with victories on the field, but it is becoming increasingly possible that we may get there as a result of UNC and Miami being horrible cheaters.

-Jason "I suspect a one year bowl ban won't be nearly enough to satisfy the NCAA in this case" Evans

BigWayne
11-09-2012, 05:46 PM
There is serious talk out there that Miami may self-impose a bowl ban (http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2012-11-02/miami-acc-coastal-bcs-ncaa-investigation-bowl-game-postseason) this year to get a head start on what could be a serious slapdown by the NCAA for that huge booster case that broke a while ago.

It is not clear if they would make this decision prior to playing in the ACC Championship game, should they get there. If so, it is possible that the ACC would rule them ineligible for the ACC Championship game.

I want to make it to the Championship by earning it with victories on the field, but it is becoming increasingly possible that we may get there as a result of UNC and Miami being horrible cheaters.

-Jason "I suspect a one year bowl ban won't be nearly enough to satisfy the NCAA in this case" Evans

I remember last year when the self imposed with a 6-5 record that they were doing it not so much to make the NCAA happy, but to get credit for a bowl ban year when it was likely to be a weak bowl. As they ended up 6-6, they would have most likely been in the Military Bowl.

So when I read the linked article, it struck me more as a case of them trying to decide how good of a bowl they can get before the decide on another self-imposed ban. So it might depend on how they finish out the last three games.

Duvall
11-09-2012, 05:54 PM
There is serious talk out there that Miami may self-impose a bowl ban (http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2012-11-02/miami-acc-coastal-bcs-ncaa-investigation-bowl-game-postseason) this year to get a head start on what could be a serious slapdown by the NCAA for that huge booster case that broke a while ago.

It is not clear if they would make this decision prior to playing in the ACC Championship game, should they get there. If so, it is possible that the ACC would rule them ineligible for the ACC Championship game.

I want to make it to the Championship by earning it with victories on the field, but it is becoming increasingly possible that we may get there as a result of UNC and Miami being horrible cheaters.

-Jason "I suspect a one year bowl ban won't be nearly enough to satisfy the NCAA in this case" Evans

It's hard to imagine a scenario in which a Miami bowl ban would help Duke make the ACC Championship game - Duke would still need to finish with more wins than Virginia Tech.

ForkFondler
11-09-2012, 09:12 PM
It's hard to imagine a scenario in which a Miami bowl ban would help Duke make the ACC Championship game - Duke would still need to finish with more wins than Virginia Tech.

VT is 4-6. They may be the most fearsome 4-6 team in the history of the universe, yet they are still 4 and 6.

Duvall
11-09-2012, 09:36 PM
VT is 4-6. They may be the most fearsome 4-6 team in the history of the universe, yet they are still 4 and 6.

Overall record doesn't matter, of course.

If Virginia Tech finishes the season tied with Duke at 4-4 in conference play - entirely possible, with games remaining against lowly BC and Virginia - the Hokies will go to the ACC Championship Game due to their head-to-head win.

ForkFondler
11-10-2012, 11:17 AM
Overall record doesn't matter, of course.

If Virginia Tech finishes the season tied with Duke at 4-4 in conference play - entirely possible, with games remaining against lowly BC and Virginia - the Hokies will go to the ACC Championship Game due to their head-to-head win.

Virginia didn't look so lowly last week. If Duke beats GT but loses to Miami, there are a number of ways the Miami bowl ban would put Duke in Charlotte.

Lunchab1es
11-10-2012, 03:29 PM
Miami goes down to UVA. Do we need VaTech to stumble now to be coastal champs even if we win out?

Wander
11-10-2012, 03:29 PM
Virginia beats Miami with a TD in the last 10 seconds. If Georgia Tech holds this lead against UNC (the score is 58-50 with plenty of time left), then I don't feel like figuring out these damn tiebreakers anymore. The division is a mess. No matter what though - Duke wins the division with wins against GT and Miami, and nothing will change that.

Lunchables - VaTech already stumbled on Thursday night, so we're safe.

CameronBornAndBred
11-10-2012, 03:34 PM
Nice job Wahoos :D

OldSchool
11-10-2012, 04:04 PM
Who could possibly have predicted before the season started that after playing TEN games, Duke would be the team in control of its own destiny to win the ACC championship (in FOOTBALL) if it wins the final three games.

BigWayne
11-10-2012, 04:08 PM
Miami goes down to UVA. Do we need VaTech to stumble now to be coastal champs even if we win out?

We win out, we are coastal champs. At worst, we would have a 2-way tiebreak with UNC, which we win of course.

BigWayne
11-10-2012, 04:19 PM
GT will be really amped up for Duke next week. With the win today, they can be bowl eligible with a win over Duke. With their last game at UGA, the Duke game is likely their last chance for a win. If GT beats Duke and Duke beats Miami, GT will go to the ACC championship game. It's a really big game for both teams, in late November, believe it or not.

Olympic Fan
11-10-2012, 04:19 PM
Three teams are still in the race. Duke holds the key for all of them.

(1) Duke wins out and Duke is Coastal Division Champ

(2) If Duke finishes 1-1, the one (Georgia Tech or Miami) that beats Duke wins the Coastal.

(3) If both beat Duke, then it's a mess -- Miami and Georgia Tech would both be 5-3 and Miami would win on the head-to-head (they beat Ga Tech in OT). However, UNC could also finish 5-3 and that would create a three-way tie in which all three are 1-1 against each other. Both would be 3-2 in the Coastal ... don't know how that plays out.

Of course, there is still the (very good, from what I'm told) chance that Miami opts out of a bowl andthus out of the Coastal race. They won't make that decision until they get bowl eligible -- which could come next Saturday against South Florida. If they do that, Georgia Tech can clinch the division by beating Duke.

Reilly
11-10-2012, 04:33 PM
Miami 4-3 [@Duke]
GT 4-3 [Duke]
Duke 3-3 [@GT, Miami]
VT 2-4 [@BC, UVa]
UVA 2-4 [UNC, @VT]

----------------------

UNC 3-3 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [@UVa, MD]

ForkFondler
11-10-2012, 05:47 PM
Miami 4-3 [@Duke]
GT 4-3 [Duke]
Duke 3-3 [@GT, Miami]
VT 2-4 [@BC, UVa]
UVA 2-4 [UNC, @VT]

----------------------

UNC 3-3 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [@UVa, MD]

The GT win mean at least on Coastal team will have 5 wins. VT and UVA are out.

uh_no
11-11-2012, 10:31 AM
The GT win mean at least on Coastal team will have 5 wins. VT and UVA are out.

not if miami declares themselves ineligible.

here are the situations:

we go 2-0, we win the division

we go 0-2, miami wins, unless they declare themselves ineligible, in which case GT wins

we go 1-1:

losing to GT, GT wins the division

losing to miami, miami wins the division, unless they declare themselves ineligible, in which case the following cases exist:

no one else reaches 4-4 (requires unc to go 0-2, vt to beat uva, and bc to beat vt....so not likely): duke (head to head over GT)
just VT reaches 4-4 (they go 2-0 unc goes 0-2) VT (GT eliminated going 0-2 against duke/vt, then head to head over duke)
just uva reaches 4-4 (they go 2-0, unc goes 0-2) duke (uva eliminated 0-2 against gt/duke, the head to head over GT)
vt and unc reach 4-4 (vt goes 2-0, unc goes 1-1) VT (gt eliminated going 1-2 against unc/duke/vt, vt head to head over duke)
uva and unc both reach 4-4 (uva goes 2-0, unc loses to md) duke



so boiling this down: we have just two ways we can win the division

1) go 2-0
2) go 1-1, beating GT, hoping miami declares themselves ineligible, and VT loses one of their remaining games

DukeSean
11-11-2012, 10:49 AM
So in other words, to have any shot at the Coastal, we need to beat GT this weekend. Got it.

Olympic Fan
11-11-2012, 11:39 AM
not if miami declares themselves ineligible.

here are the situations:

we go 2-0, we win the division

we go 0-2, miami wins, unless they declare themselves ineligible, in which case GT winswe go 1-1:


Not saying you are wrong, but just curious, how do you resolve a three-way tie in this case with 5-3 Miami, 5-3 Georgia Tech and 5-3 UNC?

Wander
11-11-2012, 11:54 AM
Not saying you are wrong, but just curious, how do you resolve a three-way tie in this case with 5-3 Miami, 5-3 Georgia Tech and 5-3 UNC?

In this case, they'd also all be 3-2 in the division. I think what would happen is it would go to record against the next-best team - Virginia Tech will probably be 4-4 (while Duke would be 3-5 and UVA would probably be 3-5 as well), and Georgia Tech lost to Virginia Tech, so they'd be eliminated, giving Miami the title since UNC is not eligible.

But if VT beats BC and drops the game to UVA things get crazy: Duke, UVA, and VT would be all be 3-5 (2-3 in division), and Miami, Georgia Tech, and UNC would all be 2-1 against them. So you'd have to go to the next tiebreaker, which is "Overall record for non-divisional teams." I don't really know what that means.

uh_no
11-11-2012, 12:07 PM
Not saying you are wrong, but just curious, how do you resolve a three-way tie in this case with 5-3 Miami, 5-3 Georgia Tech and 5-3 UNC?

tie breaker 1: record among tied teams.....all are 1-1
tie breaker 2: division record...GT 3-2, miami 3-2, UNC 3-2...NEXT
tie breaker 3:


3. Head-to-head competition vs. the team within the division with the best overall (divisional or conference) record, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.

now i don't know if that makes any sense to you, but it certainly doesn't to me....what does "best overall (divisional or conference) record" even mean? overall, division, and conference record are all three different things....reading the basketball tiebreakers, there is a similar procedure which seems to make more sense....you go to the next best records in the standings an take the head to head records against them

in this case, duke would be 3-5, virginia could be 3-5 at best, and vt could be 4-4 or 3-5, if vt is 4-4, then miami wins the division... GT would be eliminated based on their loss to VT, and UNC is ineligible

if all 3 are 3-5, then GT went 2-1, UNC went 2-1, and miami went 2-1.....and we're out of teams in the division....NEXT

tie breaker 4: record against non-divisional teams miami went 2-1, GT went 2-1, UNC went 2-1....NEXT
tie breaker 5: record against common non-divisional teams...there are none....NEXT
tie breaker 6: just like tie breaker 3, except for common non-divisional teams, of which there are none....so NEXT
tie breaker 7: BCS standings, unless the second team is within 5 spots of the first team, in which case, head to head....none of them are ranked....NEXT
tie breaker 8: choose lots


so there you have it, ladies and gentlemen, if UNC Miami, and GT all finish 5-3, and duke, virginia and VT all finish at 3-5, and none of the teams are BCS ranked, then it comes down to random draw!

Reilly
11-15-2012, 10:51 PM
Miami 4-3 [@Duke]
GT 4-3 [Duke]
Duke 3-3 [@GT, Miami]
VT 2-4 [@BC, UVa]
UVA 2-5 [@VT]

----------------------

UNC 4-3 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [MD]

BigWayne
11-16-2012, 09:16 PM
GT fans are having fun with this also.....

http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia-tech-sports/2012/11/15/the-possibilities-of-a-coastal-tie-at-4-4/?cp=2

Reilly
11-17-2012, 07:43 PM
GT 5-3 [Duke]
Miami 4-3 [@Duke]

----------------------

VT 3-4 [UVa]
Duke 3-4 [Miami]
UVA 2-5 [@VT]
UNC 4-3 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [MD]

uh_no
11-17-2012, 08:07 PM
GT 5-3 [Duke]
Miami 4-3 [@Duke]

----------------------

VT 3-4 [UVa]
Duke 3-4 [Miami]
UVA 2-5 [@VT]
UNC 4-3 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [MD]

if miami beats duke next week, UNC beats MD, and uva beats vt, all of which are likely (especially after vt's poor showing today), then assuming none of miami, gt, nor UNC are ranked, the winner will be determined by random draw

Wander
11-17-2012, 08:08 PM
Can someone confirm or disprove uh_no's math? It seems right to me, but I'm not sure what some of the tiebreakers actually mean. Are we just a Miami, UVA, and UNC win away from having the division champion decided at random?

uh_no
11-17-2012, 08:13 PM
Can someone confirm or disprove uh_no's math? It seems right to me, but I'm not sure what some of the tiebreakers actually mean. Are we just a Miami, UVA, and UNC win away from having the division champion decided at random?

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?29444-The-ACC-Championship-Vigil&p=602596#post602596

check my post above, i worked it through all the tiebreaking procedures for a three way tie for the division, and the ACC has stated that UNC would be involved in tie breaking procedures, which i think is absolutely insane that it won't go to the head to head of miami/gt because an ineligible team is tied with them....

Duvall
11-17-2012, 08:37 PM
if miami beats duke next week, UNC beats MD, and uva beats vt, all of which are likely (especially after vt's poor showing today), then assuming none of miami, gt, nor UNC are ranked, the winner will be determined by random draw

What? No. Miami and GT would be tied at 5-3, and the tiebreaker would go to Miami based on their head-to-head win over the Jackets.

uh_no
11-17-2012, 08:39 PM
What? No. Miami and GT would be tied at 5-3, and the tiebreaker would go to Miami based on their head-to-head win over the Jackets.

not if UNC is also at 5-3.

The ACC has stated that UNC would factor into tiebreaking procedures despite their being ineligible to actually go to the title game.

blazindw
11-17-2012, 08:56 PM
CBS gave a breakdown of the ACC scenarios entering today (ESPN gave the same scenarios). With today's results, these scenarios are very simple...

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/college-football-rapidreports/20995773/acc-coastal-and-atlantic-division-scenarios

-If Miami beats us next week, Miami wins the division. If they self-ban, then GT wins the division.
-If we beat Miami, GT wins the division.

uh_no
11-17-2012, 09:09 PM
CBS gave a breakdown of the ACC scenarios entering today (ESPN gave the same scenarios). With today's results, these scenarios are very simple...

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/college-football-rapidreports/20995773/acc-coastal-and-atlantic-division-scenarios

-If Miami beats us next week, Miami wins the division. If they self-ban, then GT wins the division.
-If we beat Miami, GT wins the division.

he ignored the fact that UNC will factor into the tie breaking procedures....who knows....maybe the ACC changed their stance on how they would calculate it....

Duvall
11-17-2012, 09:17 PM
not if UNC is also at 5-3.

The ACC has stated that UNC would factor into tiebreaking procedures despite their being ineligible to actually go to the title game.

I doubt that's what they meant, as opposed to UNC counting as an opponent in computing tiebreakers between eligible teams. That would make no sense.

uh_no
11-17-2012, 09:23 PM
I doubt that's what they meant, as opposed to UNC counting as an opponent in computing tiebreakers between eligible teams. That would make no sense.

it does, in some sense, make sense

if you think about it as less of determining who goes to the title game, and more of determining the final ordering of the division.

regardless of anyone's eligibility, the 6 teams need to be assigned a ranking 1-6. The rules are clear on how to break ties in assigning these rankings. As such, UNC must be involved in assigning the rankings.
That being the case, there will be a three way tiebreaker at the top of the division.

Once that ranking is settled, the most highly ranked eligible team is selected.

There is simply no protocol for using one set of tie breaking procedures to determine division champion, and another one to assign the final ordering, which is what would be required.

Now, if there was a tie breaker which said "if any team is ineligible, they automatically lose the tiebreaker", then yes, this would work...but as far as I know, and as far as the league has indicated, there is not such a rule. I personally think this is how it should work, and if it were to come down to a situation where an ineligible team screwed things up, they would make this change in the rules


anyway, I think the league is going to do whatever they want and no one will really question it if there is some sort of justification

blazindw
11-17-2012, 09:23 PM
he ignored the fact that UNC will factor into the tie breaking procedures....who knows....maybe the ACC changed their stance on how they would calculate it....

Like I said, ESPN gave the same scenarios throughout the football game today.

uh_no
11-17-2012, 09:28 PM
Like I said, ESPN gave the same scenarios throughout the football game today.

like I said, they may have more direct information from the ACC which went counter to what had previously been said

Reilly
11-19-2012, 08:04 AM
odd sentence (meaningless?) from the weekly release on theacc.com:

"In the event of a three-way tie between Georgia Tech, Miami and North Carolina the tiebreakers mostly favor the Hurricanes."

What does that mean? There would be one tiebreaker that eventually breaks the tie, and it would favor whomever, and that should be able to be discerned, shouldn't it?

blazindw
11-19-2012, 08:10 AM
Miami has imposed a bowl ban on itself, as expected: http://www.hurricanesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=28700&ATCLID=205750463

This means it will be Florida State vs. Georgia Tech on December 1st.