Phase 0 - 2012-13

[Kedsy]

Autumn has come. The leaves have begun to fall. And Duke basketball is in the air. Yes, it's time for the 2012-13 Phase reports to begin, and I'm starting with Phase 0. The Phase begins with CTC and then two exhibition games.

For the fourth straight year, we'll play the defending Division II champion, this year against 2012 champion Western Washington. For those keeping track at home, in our previous three seasons we played 2011 champion Bellarmine, 2010 champion Cal-Poly Pomona, and 2009 champion Findlay. Our other exhibition opponent is a Winston-Salem State team that features eight seniors, two returning third-team Division II All Americans (guards Justin Glover and WyKevin Bazemore), and the memory of Clarence "Bighouse" Gaines. Both teams have some size (Western Washington's roster includes two 6'9" players and three 6'7" players while Winston-Salem State's roster has two 6'8" players and two 6'7 players), but neither team should have anything close to an answer for Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly.

In CTC this Friday, Blue will face White. It will be our only view of Rodney Hood on the court until next season. Hopefully the students will yell and scream and chant the names of the many recruits who plan to attend. And now I will devote the rest of this Phase report to a season overview. Here's what I'm going to be focusing on as the season unfolds:

(1) Health

The past two seasons have shown how it feels when major injuries strike. Already this season, Marshall Plumlee is out 6 to 8 weeks with a fractured 2nd metatarsal and Seth Curry is nursing a leg injury that kept him out of most of the Ft. Bragg festivities. We all fervently hope that we've reached our quota for the season.

(2) How far will our experience take us?

In my mind, one of the major fallacies in sports reporting is the rating of college basketball teams based on what they've "lost" from the previous year, instead of on what they return. For example, we may have lost Austin Rivers and Miles Plumlee, but in a way that just means we have a lot of minutes and shots up for grabs among a deep roster of talented players. Even more important is this year's college player is almost always worth more than last year's version of the same player. In many cases, a lot more. And this is especially true when it comes to seniors.

Duke will have three seniors in the starting lineup: Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and Seth Curry. As has been discussed several times on this board, it's not often that a K-coached Duke team features three seniors in major roles (which I have defined as averaging 15 or more minutes a game*). But the few years this has happened have been memorable ones: 1986, 1989, 1990, 1994, 2006, and 2010**. Will the 2013 team rival the accomplishments of past senior laden lineups? Who can say. But I'd rather have three seniors in the starting lineup than three freshmen.


* -- it has been argued that 15 mpg is too high a standard. If we lower the bar to 10 mpg, then we'd also have to include 1997, when Carmen Wallace averaged 11.0 mpg (including his DNPs as zero minutes). However, most of Wallace's playing time happened early in the season; he played double-digit minutes in only two of our final 13 games that season, bringing into question the size of his role and illustrating why I set the bar higher than 10 mpg. The only other K-coached Duke team with a 3rd senior averaging more than 5 mpg was K's first team at Duke for which Jim Suddath averaged 7.3 mpg (including his DNPs as zero minutes).

** -- It's worth noting that the 1995 team also had three seniors play 15 or more mpg, but I don't count that as a K-coached team, since he coached fewer than half the games.

(3) D

After last season, in which our defense was perhaps the worst it has been in the K era, this may be the biggest question of the season. Will our defense be any better this year? And if so, how much?

Well, one of the biggest issues from last season appeared to be the small stature of our backcourt. And that's not going to change much, with Quinn Cook and Seth Curry having listed heights of 6'0 and 6'2, it will be the shortest backcourt we've had since... 1986. And while it worked out fine while Tommy Amaker and Johnny Dawkins harassed opposing backcourts, it's unlikely that Quinn and Seth can match the 1986 duo's defensive acumen.

Last season we also had the additional issue of playing a small forward who was 6'4. The combined height of our three perimeter players in 2011-12 tied for an all-time low in the K era, along with 2006 (#13 defense, according to Pomeroy) and 1986 (no Pomeroy, but pretty good D). But obviously that wasn't the whole story considering the other teams who played that small. The good news here is our starting SF this season is likely to be Alex Murphy, who at 6'8 has plenty of size for the position.

But perhaps the real issue was that none of our perimeter players displayed a great amount of lateral quickness. Is Alex Murphy going to help that? Will a healthy Quinn show a great improvement there? Is there anyone else coming to the rescue? I think the generally accepted answer is "we hope so" to the first two questions and "Rasheed Sulaimon" to the third. But we won't know for sure about any of them until we see Alex, Quinn, and Rasheed in action. And even against Division II competition, this is something we should have a much better feel for after Phase 0.

Again, it may be that part of the solution to the defense conundrum may lie in the passing of time and gaining of experience. At the Ft. Bragg practice, Coach K said last year's squad had the "wrong attitude" when it came to playing defense. After the embarrassment at Lehigh's hands, the hope here is our many veterans, especially our three seniors, will do their best to make sure that attitude changes.

One last thought here is I wonder whether simply having Rodney Hood on the Blue Team in practice will make our defense better. Who on last year's Blue Team could have challenged the D in practice the way Rodney probably can? He can give Seth practice guarding a much taller scoring guard, and give Alex practice guarding a quicker scoring forward. It may not be the deciding factor, but it certainly can't hurt.

(4) Bigness

There are a lot of Duke fans who fear that Coach K either doesn't know how to successfully use his big men or simply would rather depend on his guards. Odds are this season these folks will end up eating their words, possibly slathered with bar-b-q sauce. Coach K has said he thinks Mason Plumlee should contend for player of the year in the ACC and All America honors. We all know how valuable Ryan Kelly is after his absence at the end of last season. These two guys present the biggest mismatches for us on offense. So they may not get quite as many touches or shots as some people think they should, but they still ought to get plenty. Our shot chart this season should look a lot different than it has in the recent past.

In fact...

(5) Who's going to shoot?

With Austin leaving and Andre taking the year off, Duke will have fewer long range shooters than we've had in a long time. This is one reason why Seth Curry is going to play big minutes for us -- he's really the only long-range perimeter shooter we have. Sure, Ryan Kelly is a good three-point shooter, and he'll get plenty of opportunities, but he's streaky, and he's really not a volume shooter from out there. Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton can hit them, but neither is a truly reliable outside shooter. Alex Murphy seems like more of a slasher than a bomber. Rasheed Sulaimon hit a lot of outside shots in high school, but his form isn't textbook and it remains to be seen how accurate he'll be in the college game, at least until he gets accustomed to the faster pace and larger opponents. He might not find his range until his sophomore campaign. If anything happens to Seth or he goes into a slump, or even if he just gets guarded by Aaron Craft, we might start hearing the whines that Duke doesn't have any shooters. And wouldn't that be special?

(6) Smallness

In general, Alex Murphy is one of the biggest question marks of the upcoming season. He was supposedly a top 15 2012 recruit before he re-classified but he ended up as #49 in the 2011 RSCI. Coach K has said he could be a four year starter for us and appears to have penciled him in as the starter at SF this season, at least at the beginning. I expect Alex will embrace the opportunity and play around 25 minutes a game. But what if he doesn't? What if he can't guard the smaller, quicker SFs? And even if he can, what will we do in the other 15 minutes? It's possible Amile Jefferson can back Alex up at SF, although it's not a lock that Amile will be ready to guard smaller, quicker players either.

In fact, who knows whether Amile will be ready at all. With Marshall Plumlee injured and presumably behind once he returns, it's possible Coach K will slide Alex over to PF for some amount of time and give Rasheed more time at SF.

Finally, according to reports, Alex shot poorly from the free throw line for the Finnish national team over the summer. We may not be able to afford to have both Alex and Mason out there at the end of a close game. Or either of them, for that matter.

Considering all of the above, it seems inevitable we'll be seeing some three guard lineups this season, especially at the end of close games, with Rasheed playing SF along with some combination of Quinn/Seth/Tyler at the other perimeter slots. Will our defense be OK? Will Coach K start playing the three guard sets more and more as the season goes on? That sound you're hearing is at least half of DBR throwing things at their screens right now.

(7) The Point

Traditionally under Coach K, the PG position is the keystone of both Duke's offense and Duke's defense. And yet, except for eight games in 2010-11, we haven't had a both-ways, prototypical point guard since 2004. Do we have one now? As a high school junior, Quinn Cook was #20 in the RSCI, rated as high as #13 by Prep Stars. He was the Metro player of the year, beating out a senior Kendall Marshall and becoming one of few juniors to ever win that award. On the 2010 USA U17 team, Quinn started ahead of Marquis Teague and other notables and ended up leading the tournament in assists (7.4 apg). Then he got hurt. His stock declined his senior year of high school and he ended up outside the top 30 in the final RSCI. During his up and down freshman year at Duke, he seemed to lack quickness, especially on defense. The word now is his injury hadn't fully healed, or at least he didn't have confidence that it had healed, which in effect is almost the same thing.

So which will we get this year? The pre-injury, maybe-better-than-Marquis Teague Quinn Cook, or tentative, non-explosive, not-quite-quick-enough-to-play-college-defense Quinn Cook? Coach K has named him as the early starter, so he seems to believe we'll get the former. If he's right, then everything gets better. If Quinn's quickness has returned enough to allow him to successfully guard opposing PGs, then combined with the arrival of Rasheed, Alex, and Amile, our D could come right back to where we want it. And obviously everyone benefits by having a skilled, pass-first point guard out there.

As the coaching staff has said repeatedly this Fall, we don't really have a guy who can break down opposing defenses off the dribble. We're going to have to run a strong motion offense and point guard will be key. I love Tyler Thornton as an energy guy and help defender, but I don't have confidence in his ability to be a top notch point guard on offense. Rasheed Sulaimon might be able to step in, and might be forced to step in if Quinn can't cut in on defense, but he's only a freshman and while his ballhandling and passing were pretty good in high school they weren't his strongest attributes. It would be best if Quinn can be the guy at PG.

(8) Are our free throws truly free?

Last season Mason Plumlee's free throw abilities were so questionable our own fan base was making jokes about it, presumably to keep from breaking down in tears. Especially if Mason is going to be our go-to guy, he needs to hit better than the 50.5% from the line that he's achieved in his career so far. I assume he worked on this over the summer, but all we can do now is cross our fingers and hope for the best. Or at least not the worst.

As I mentioned above, Alex Murphy's free throw shooting was also an issue this summer for the Finnish national team. If he and Mason are both throwing bricks up there, we might be leaving a whole lot of points on the line.

If Hack-a-Mason and/or Hack-an-Alex become popular pastimes among Duke opponents, a lot of Duke fans are going to be reaching for the Grecian Formula (assuming they haven't pulled out what little hair they had left). I'll be holding my breath while both these guys shoot FTs in Phase 0.

(9) Bottom of the Rotation

Obviously things can change over the course of a season, but right now our starting lineup seems pretty set with Mason, Ryan, Alex, Seth, and Quinn. Rasheed appears ready to be the 6th man and play good minutes backing up three positions. But who comes after that?

I'm assuming Tyler is our 7th man. How much he plays would appear to be a function of how much Quinn plays. If the Quinn experiment goes well, then Tyler will probably be seeing somewhere between 10 and 15 minutes a game. Which I think will work out great, because I've always been more impressed by Tyler's ability to be a team energizer and defensive disruptor, rather than someone who has to conserve his energy to play 20+ minutes.

Assuming Mason and Ryan play about 30 mpg each, that leaves 20 minutes for the last three guys -- although it could be fewer than 20 if Coach K decides to slide Alex over to PF for some amount of time and play Rasheed at SF in a dreaded "small lineup." So the likelihood is at most one of Marshall, Amile, and Josh will see double-figure minutes as our 8th man. With Marshall injured, Amile and Josh will get the first crack. Whoever looks best will have a leg up in the race to play meaningful minutes in March.

(10) Let’s Go Duke

Once again, I can’t wait for the season to start. Go Duke, and GTHC.

[jcastranio]

(3) D

After last season, in which our defense was perhaps the worst it has been in the K era, this may be the biggest question of the season. Will our defense be any better this year? And if so, how much?

Well, one of the biggest issues from last season appeared to be the small stature of our backcourt. And that's not going to change much, with Quinn Cook and Seth Curry having listed heights of 6'0 and 6'2, it will be the shortest backcourt we've had since... 1986. And while it worked out fine while Tommy Amaker and Johnny Dawkins harassed opposing backcourts, it's unlikely that Quinn and Seth can match the 1986 duo's defensive acumen.

Last season we also had the additional issue of playing a small forward who was 6'4. The combined height of our three perimeter players in 2011-12 tied for an all-time low in the K era, along with 2006 (#13 defense, according to Pomeroy) and 1986 (no Pomeroy, but pretty good D). But obviously that wasn't the whole story considering the other teams who played that small. The good news here is our starting SF this season is likely to be Alex Murphy, who at 6'8 has plenty of size for the position.

But perhaps the real issue was that none of our perimeter players displayed a great amount of lateral quickness. Is Alex Murphy going to help that? Will a healthy Quinn show a great improvement there? Is there anyone else coming to the rescue? I think the generally accepted answer is "we hope so" to the first two questions and "Rasheed Sulaimon" to the third. But we won't know for sure about any of them until we see Alex, Quinn, and Rasheed in action. And even against Division II competition, this is something we should have a much better feel for after Phase 0.

Again, it may be that part of the solution to the defense conundrum may lie in the passing of time and gaining of experience. At the Ft. Bragg practice, Coach K said last year's squad had the "wrong attitude" when it came to playing defense. After the embarrassment at Lehigh's hands, the hope here is our many veterans, especially our three seniors, will do their best to make sure that attitude changes.



The smaller guards have to come out and pressure. You can't shoot a jumper over someone who is in your face and you can't throw an easy pass. All you can do is the put the ball on the floor and drive around that pressure.

When you drive, you get channeled into a help defender. Now you have to make a quick decision and the Duke defense is forcing the issue on their terms.

Here, now, is what to look for:

The first help defender is the easiest thing in basketball to do. Even we didn't have trouble with that last year. The more complicated piece is the (for lack of a better term) the second and third order defender. When the help defender leaves his man to "help," he is relying on a teammate to slide over and take his man. The entire team is involved in the help and recover.

While the exhibition games may not have the world's most top-notch competition (no knock here, just saying), it will be instructive to watch the actions and reactions of the other three defenders - not just the man guarding the ball and the man "helping." If we are communicating and beginning the process of making those key 2nd and 3rd order shifts - then we are heading in the right direction.

Don't get too excited too early - this is not a natural instinct for most younger players. They key is - are our veterans doing it right?

[Sixthman]

I look forward to your posts every year. I also look forward each year to someone on the team having transformed his game over the summer. Often this is from Freshman to Soph. Year. One of my favorite examples of this going back to the early coach K years is John Smith, who was ineffective on a very good team his freshman year, averaging under 2 points a game and became an important scorer, putting up 12 points a game his second season in 86-87. Like you, i think and hope Cook fits this bill this year. I am certain that he has the toughness and moxy to be a strong on the court leader. I remember watching him play his senior year of high school in the playoffs. His play, as he fought off injury and fatigue, was remarkable. The kind of guy anyone would want to go to war with. Add to that the kind of speed and court vision you describe -- and what we saw over the summer-- and he could be transformed. This is so compelling in no small part because Cook playing at this level should mean all the difference to the effectiveness of our bigs. I think it's the difference between Mason being an All American and a lottery pick or not.

[Kedsy]

Here, now, is what to look for:

The first help defender is the easiest thing in basketball to do. Even we didn't have trouble with that last year. The more complicated piece is the (for lack of a better term) the second and third order defender. When the help defender leaves his man to "help," he is relying on a teammate to slide over and take his man. The entire team is involved in the help and recover.

Great point. This is what our team (especially Z and Lance) did so well in 2010. As you point out, it's not the most intuitive thing, so I wonder how quickly Alex or Amile will master it. But hopefully our veteran front court members Mason, Ryan, and Josh are on top of it by now.

[Cameron]

Again, it may be that part of the solution to the defense conundrum may lie in the passing of time and gaining of experience. At the Ft. Bragg practice, Coach K said last year's squad had the "wrong attitude" when it came to playing defense. After the embarrassment at Lehigh's hands, the hope here is our many veterans, especially our three seniors, will do their best to make sure that attitude changes.

I was elated to hear Coach K speak directly to that point at yesterday’s televised practice, because watching last year’s team go “at it” defensively required both patience and a dangerous amount of acetaminophen. Aside from Tyler Thornton, and perhaps a couple of other guys, there just wasn’t any urgency. And on defense, urgency is everything. Despite what the highlight reels may exhibit, Duke Defense is built on more than just slapping the **** out of the floor. When you get down into your stance, you have to lock in and not just play mean, but want to play mean. What made defensive demons like Billy King and Shane Battier and Chris Duhon and Nolan Smith so ferocious on that end of the floor was their ambition to absolutely embarrass the man in front of them. They took as much pride in altering a shot or batting away a ball than they did soaring for a dunk or scoring a three-pointer. Although slight in stature, Tyler epitomizes this type of razor-sharp focus the most of anyone on our team (at least among the holdovers from last season), and hopefully his doggedness and resilience will carry over to the other guys this year.

So that is what I will be most eager to watch unfold over the first phase of the season and beyond: the mental state of our team with regard to how the guys approach defense. While it is true that we lacked the size traditionally needed to really excel as an elite defensive club last winter, aside from a little bit of youth (which almost every team in the country will experience to a certain degree) there are no excuses this season. We have three battle-tested seniors in our lineup, and two of those guys will be patrolling the frontcourt at just an inch or two shy of seven feet. The arrival of the super-versatile Alex Murphy will provide us with a defensive drawbridge of sorts to help deliver more protection for our big guys in the middle who last year were left to not only worry about their own men but also the swarm of incoming perimeter attackers who so easily maneuvered around a fragile first line of defense. At 6-4, Rasheed Sulaimon will give us that same variety of mobility and athleticism in the backcourt, which will also feature Thornton and a senior Seth Curry, who, with a high basketball IQ and three years in Coach K’s system, needs to finally to be ready to bring it on both sides of the ball.



With Austin leaving and Andre taking the year off, Duke will have fewer long range shooters than we've had in a long time. This is one reason why Seth Curry is going to play big minutes for us -- he's really the only long-range perimeter shooter we have.

As I’ve already voiced, I think the concern over a perceived lack of shooters on this year’s Duke squad is simply exacerbated by Andre’s sudden departure. By far the most humble outside shooting team Duke has had this millennium is the 2006-07 outfit, which as a unit made just 198 three-point field goals at a measly 31% clip. That team relied solely on Greg Paulus, a freshman Jon Scheyer and DeMarcus Nelson, never a tried and true marksman, for the bulk of its threes. We will fare far better than that team from long range, and, I might argue, be even more versatile from deep than last season due to the depth and overall size of our shooters. While we lost Andre and Austin in the off-season, we do bring back two of our three leading percentage guys from distance in Kelly (No. 1 at 40%) and Seth (No. 3 at 38%), who is also our top overall shooter and, by no longer being called upon to run the point, can now focus totally on hitting threes. We also add two athletic wings with great height and length who can stretch the defense in Rasheed and Alex. This tandem’s ability to not only hit the three, but also score off the dribble, will really open things up and create spacing for our offense to put points on the board in a variety of ways.

As I keep touting, Rasheed, while perhaps not as fluid of a shooter as Andre with regard to form, is the reigning McDonald’s All-American three-point shootout champion and scored a bevy of his prep school points from beyond the arc. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe that he can cover close to half of the 67 triples Andre nailed in 2011-12 (maybe 30 or more). And I think that Alex, while certainly more dangerous at putting the ball on the floor and heading toward the basket than he is as a pure shooter, has the skills to enjoy a similar season shooting the ball from the outside that Kelly did as a sophomore when he hit 22 from deep for Duke. While neither will likely be capable of scoring in sheer spurts like Andre could, Rasheed and Alex help give our perimeter attack the all-important elements of size and depth.

As for Kelly, he may not be a high volume three-point shooter by definition, but he did hit 40 from distance last year (a major upgrade from the five he hit as a freshman and the 22 as a sophomore) and gets more and more comfortable from beyond the arc with each passing year. All signs point toward another significant increase in made three-point baskets from Kelly in 2012-13, especially with a true point guard now leading the way and finding our shooters more efficiently in both the half court and in transition.

Cook and Thornton are also guys who can't be left open on given nights.

[jcastranio]

It is part of our game - part of our identity.

Seth and Ryan - seniors - will have a green light.

Tyler, Quinn, Rasheed, and Alex will probably put up 6-10 3 pointers a game between all of them - the important factor being if they take those shots as a normal, natural part of the offense or if they are rushed shots, "hey, I'm open so I shoot shoot a 3" shots, or "I'm well guarded, but I'll shoot it anyway" shots. Taking these shots is important to keeping the lane open and available for big men and drivers. Of course, making 30%-35% of them would be nice, too.

Mason, Josh, and Marshall should not be taking 3 pointers.

The 3 point shot is not that difficult (heck I can hit it and I'm 53), so it isn't about missing Andre. It is about having two high quality shooters and four quality shooters - that's enough for anyone. Confidence in taking the shot and understanding as to where and when to take it - that is the key.

[Cameron]

It is part of our game - part of our identity.

Seth and Ryan - seniors - will have a green light.

Tyler, Quinn, Rasheed, and Alex will probably put up 6-10 3 pointers a game between all of them - the important factor being if they take those shots as a normal, natural part of the offense or if they are rushed shots, "hey, I'm open so I shoot shoot a 3" shots, or "I'm well guarded, but I'll shoot it anyway" shots. Taking these shots is important to keeping the lane open and available for big men and drivers. Of course, making 30%-35% of them would be nice, too.

Mason, Josh, and Marshall should not be taking 3 pointers.

The 3 point shot is not that difficult (heck I can hit it and I'm 53), so it isn't about missing Andre. It is about having two high quality shooters and four quality shooters - that's enough for anyone. Confidence in taking the shot and understanding as to where and when to take it - that is the key.

Exactly. And, as highlighted in my post above, this year the core of our perimeter shooting attack will feature a 6'11 Kelly, a 6'8 Murphy and a 6'4 Sulaimon, in addition to our most potent deep threat in Curry. That's the definition of versatility. The other important thing to factor into the equation is that this season we will have a healthy and classic point guard on the floor the majority of the time making plays and distributing to our gunners behind the arc. This is going to make a huge difference in the amount of really good looks we get from three, which should bolster our overall team percentage.

We will have plenty of options from downtown, especially by mid-season once the new guys (Rasheed and Alex) have become fully acclimated. I really think that Rasheed is going to surprise a lot of people, and could put closer to 40 or 50 threes in the basket before the year is over. He is kind of like Jon Scheyer in that, while not an elite-level J.J. Redick-type shooter, he is an elite scorer who just puts the ball in the basket. I am glad he is being slept on. I think it will make him that much hungrier.

[Kedsy]

The 3 point shot is not that difficult (heck I can hit it and I'm 53), so it isn't about missing Andre.

It's a lot more difficult at game speed with a quick, large, athletic defender bearing down on you. I don't know about Rasheed, and we won't know until we see him hit that shot multiple times (in one game) against a top team. But Quinn, Tyler, and Alex should only be taking that shot if they're left wide open. If an opponent finds a way to shut down Seth from outside, and we're depending on Quinn, Tyler, and Alex to hit from outside, the possibility exists for things to get ugly.

[Kedsy]

I really think that Rasheed is going to surprise a lot of people, and could put closer to 40 or 50 threes in the basket before the year is over. He is kind of like Jon Scheyer in that, while not an elite-level J.J. Redick-type shooter, he is an elite scorer who just puts the ball in the basket. I am glad he is being slept on. I think it will make him that much hungrier.

You may be right -- I hope you are. But it's just as likely that Rasheed doesn't become a college level scorer until his sophomore year. My understanding is he didn't score very much at the NC Pro Am, and while generally the Pro Am doesn't tell you very much, if he didn't score there against the matador defense being played, I wouldn't want to bet on him being a big scorer in the real games.

[jcastranio]

It's a lot more difficult at game speed with a quick, large, athletic defender bearing down on you. I don't know about Rasheed, and we won't know until we see him hit that shot multiple times (in one game) against a top team. But Quinn, Tyler, and Alex should only be taking that shot if they're left wide open. If an opponent finds a way to shut down Seth from outside, and we're depending on Quinn, Tyler, and Alex to hit from outside, the possibility exists for things to get ugly.

I agree. That is why I think those shots should come out of the offensive flow - a drive and kick, passing back out of a double team. They shouldn't be looking to take the 3, they should take the 3 point shots that come to them. If we just start shooting a bunch of 3's, it will get ugly.

[tommy]

It's a lot more difficult at game speed with a quick, large, athletic defender bearing down on you. I don't know about Rasheed, and we won't know until we see him hit that shot multiple times (in one game) against a top team. But Quinn, Tyler, and Alex should only be taking that shot if they're left wide open. If an opponent finds a way to shut down Seth from outside, and we're depending on Quinn, Tyler, and Alex to hit from outside, the possibility exists for things to get ugly.

If I was an opposing coach, the way I would shut down Seth is by crowding him. His handle has been OK, but nothing great, and I haven't seen much of him taking his man off the dribble, getting around him, getting into the lane for pullups or floaters or runners, or taking it all the way to the hoop. Not that he never did those things, but he didn't do them often, and doesn't appear to be all that comfortable doing them. He prefers to catch and shoot. That requires a pass from a teammate who has gained an advantage, causing a defender to play off to help and thereby distorting the defense.

Duke was not a very good passing team last year, either on the perimeter or in to the post. That really needs to improve, and it's one thing I'm going to be looking at this year, and also why in particular Quinn Cook is going to be such a key guy.

[Cameron]

You may be right -- I hope you are. But it's just as likely that Rasheed doesn't become a college level scorer until his sophomore year. My understanding is he didn't score very much at the NC Pro Am, and while generally the Pro Am doesn't tell you very much, if he didn't score there against the matador defense being played, I wouldn't want to bet on him being a big scorer in the real games.

Have you ever been to a Spanish bullfight? Some of those matadors are pretty intimidating. :D I didn't catch any of the Pro-Am games and didn't really follow any of the results over the summer, so I guess I can't speak to that. Hopefully, Rasheed's smaller dose of scoring in those games was more just indicative of the influx of talent and all-star nature of those kinds of events, which naturally creates for less ball sharing and team play (which, from everything I have seen, Rasheed seems to really exemplify) and more just a vehicle for guys to show their stuff, so to speak. I could be wrong. I don't know how the Pro-Am usually plays out.

As you have said, college is a whole different animal than high school ball. I totally get that. But that doesn't change the fact that Rasheed was one smooth scorer at the prep level, the type of player who could tally points in spectacular fashion, a multitude of ways -- on the drive, mid-range, pull-up, catch and shoot, etc. I think that kind of diversity as a scorer will help Rasheed gain his footing earlier as a perimeter shooter at Duke, because it should present him with better looks from deep as defenses won't be able to just faceguard him as they could Andre early on during his career as a Blue Devil. Can you imagine how lethal Andre would have been if he could dribble? I mean the fact that he couldn't might be the biggest testament to how prolific of a shooter Andre really was.

With that said, I hope I am right about Rasheed, too. Haha. I just have a hunch, as I did with Jon. There's a feeling there I just can't explain.

[Kedsy]

Hopefully, Rasheed's smaller dose of scoring in those games was more just indicative of the influx of talent and all-star nature of those kinds of events, which naturally creates for less ball sharing and team play (which, from everything I have seen, Rasheed seems to really exemplify) and more just a vehicle for guys to show their stuff, so to speak. I could be wrong. I don't know how the Pro-Am usually plays out.

I don't know, maybe. I'm pretty sure both Quinn and Amile had multiple 20+ point games, but Rasheed generally didn't even reach 10. I don't think this means Quinn or Amile are better scorers than Rasheed and I don't expect Quinn or Amile to be big scorers this year for Duke (although they both might become big scorers in their upperclass years). But I'm not expecting Rasheed to be a big scorer for us this season, either. Nor Alex, really, though he scored a lot for Finland this summer.

Put another way. Our three leading scorers will almost certainly be Seth, Mason, and Ryan. I expect we'll see something like 50 points a game combined from them. Assuming we score something like 75 a game, that leaves 25 or so for Quinn, Rasheed, Alex, Tyler, Amile, Josh, and Marshall combined. Which means it probably wouldn't be rational to expect much more than 6 points a game from any of them.

[roywhite]

I don't know, maybe. I'm pretty sure both Quinn and Amile had multiple 20+ point games, but Rasheed generally didn't even reach 10. I don't think this means Quinn or Amile are better scorers than Rasheed and I don't expect Quinn or Amile to be big scorers this year for Duke (although they both might become big scorers in their upperclass years). But I'm not expecting Rasheed to be a big scorer for us this season, either. Nor Alex, really, though he scored a lot for Finland this summer.

Put another way. Our three leading scorers will almost certainly be Seth, Mason, and Ryan. I expect we'll see something like 50 points a game combined from them. Assuming we score something like 75 a game, that leaves 25 or so for Quinn, Rasheed, Alex, Tyler, Amile, Josh, and Marshall combined. Which means it probably wouldn't be rational to expect much more than 6 points a game from any of them.

Sounds about right; don't get the impression that Rasheed, even if he gets major minutes, will be hunting his shot. He'll likely get some spot-up three point attempts, and perhaps score some in transition, esp. if he can get a few steals or tipped balls himself. That could be enough to reach double figures occasionally.

As for the veterans, certainly Seth will be looking for shot opportunities, as will Ryan. Mason can score in transition, putbacks, and hopefully good looks from in close as a result of good passing. Seems to me that Mason scoring well including from the free throw line would be a VERY good sign for our offense.

[Cameron]

Put another way. Our three leading scorers will almost certainly be Seth, Mason, and Ryan. I expect we'll see something like 50 points a game combined from them. Assuming we score something like 75 a game, that leaves 25 or so for Quinn, Rasheed, Alex, Tyler, Amile, Josh, and Marshall combined. Which means it probably wouldn't be rational to expect much more than 6 points a game from any of them.

This makes sense. You're probably right in terms of how the scoring will balance out, but I could see us potentially reach 78, 79 or 80 a game, which, assuming our big three (Seth, Mason and Ryan) averages around 50, that might mean 10 points a night for the next highest scorer (maybe Alex) and seven or eight points per game for Rasheed or Quinn, with the rest of the roster accumulating the remaining 12 points.

It's obviously very hard to tell.

[Kedsy]

This makes sense. You're probably right in terms of how the scoring will balance out, but I could see us potentially reach 78, 79 or 80 a game, which, assuming our big three (Seth, Mason and Ryan) averages around 50, that might mean 10 points a night for the next highest scorer (maybe Alex) and seven or eight points per game for Rasheed or Quinn, with the rest of the roster accumulating the remaining 12 points.

It's obviously very hard to tell.

I agree in individual games anything could happen. Last year Miles scored 17 points in 19 minutes against Temple. But his average for the season was 6.6 ppg. Also last season, Quinn, Tyler and Josh each scored in double-figures at least once, but all of them averaged fewer than 5 ppg. My point was not to expect a lot of scoring from Rasheed or any of the other non-seniors, via three-point shots or otherwise.

Then if it happens we can all be pleasantly surprised.

[Cameron]

I agree in individual games anything could happen. Last year Miles scored 17 points in 19 minutes against Temple. But his average for the season was 6.6 ppg. Also last season, Quinn, Tyler and Josh each scored in double-figures at least once, but all of them averaged fewer than 5 ppg. My point was not to expect a lot of scoring from Rasheed or any of the other non-seniors, via three-point shots or otherwise.

Then if it happens we can all be pleasantly surprised.

Good wisdom to live by.

[MCFinARL]

It's a lot more difficult at game speed with a quick, large, athletic defender bearing down on you. I don't know about Rasheed, and we won't know until we see him hit that shot multiple times (in one game) against a top team. But Quinn, Tyler, and Alex should only be taking that shot if they're left wide open. If an opponent finds a way to shut down Seth from outside, and we're depending on Quinn, Tyler, and Alex to hit from outside, the possibility exists for things to get ugly.

This makes sense, of course. That being said, some of Tyler's best--and most important--threes last year were taken when he was so well covered that he had no other choice but to shoot. So he is capable of making a well-covered, falling backwards, impossible three from time to time. Agreed, though, he shouldn't be looking to take that shot if he doesn't have to.

Thanks for your very well-thought-out opening post here. One other thing you mentioned that caught my eye--I am hopeful that the presence of Rodney Hood in practice will help strengthen other players' defensive skills, as you suggest it could. From what I saw of him in the video from Ft. Bragg, he has some impressive moves that will challenge the white team in practice.

[NSDukeFan]

Autumn has come. The leaves have begun to fall. And Duke basketball is in the air. Yes, it's time for the 2012-13 Phase reports to begin, and I'm starting with Phase 0. The Phase begins with CTC and then two exhibition games.

For the fourth straight year, we'll play the defending Division II champion, this year against 2012 champion Western Washington. For those keeping track at home, in our previous three seasons we played 2011 champion Bellarmine, 2010 champion Cal-Poly Pomona, and 2009 champion Findlay. Our other exhibition opponent is a Winston-Salem State team that features eight seniors, two returning third-team Division II All Americans (guards Justin Glover and WyKevin Bazemore), and the memory of Clarence "Bighouse" Gaines. Both teams have some size (Western Washington's roster includes two 6'9" players and three 6'7" players while Winston-Salem State's roster has two 6'8" players and two 6'7 players), but neither team should have anything close to an answer for Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly.
Woohoo!!! Phase Reports are here!!! The season is almost here.
I really like that Duke plays the Division II champion every year.


...[fantastic points as always]...
(9) Bottom of the Rotation

Obviously things can change over the course of a season, but right now our starting lineup seems pretty set with Mason, Ryan, Alex, Seth, and Quinn. Rasheed appears ready to be the 6th man and play good minutes backing up three positions. But who comes after that?

I'm assuming Tyler is our 7th man. How much he plays would appear to be a function of how much Quinn plays. If the Quinn experiment goes well, then Tyler will probably be seeing somewhere between 10 and 15 minutes a game. Which I think will work out great, because I've always been more impressed by Tyler's ability to be a team energizer and defensive disruptor, rather than someone who has to conserve his energy to play 20+ minutes.

Assuming Mason and Ryan play about 30 mpg each, that leaves 20 minutes for the last three guys -- although it could be fewer than 20 if Coach K decides to slide Alex over to PF for some amount of time and play Rasheed at SF in a dreaded "small lineup." So the likelihood is at most one of Marshall, Amile, and Josh will see double-figure minutes as our 8th man. With Marshall injured, Amile and Josh will get the first crack. Whoever looks best will have a leg up in the race to play meaningful minutes in March.
I wonder if Mason and Ryan will play 30 mpg each. My impression is that coach K has his top guards typically play 30 mpg+, but is that the case for big men? Shelden Williams played 33+ mpg each of his final two years, McRoberts played 35+ his sophomore year, Boozer played 28+ mpg his junior year, Brand played 29+ his sophomore year.
Answering my own question, I would have to agree with you that Ryan and Mason may very well play 30 mpg each, though I am (as always) hoping to see some minutes for players 7-10, realizing that K's distribution of minutes tends to work quite well.

One other big question I have is: What will the offense look like? My understanding is that coach K has stated in the preseason that the team does not have a break down the opposition perpetrator, so more passing and motion will be used this year. I believe the coaching staff tries to find the most efficient way to score each year and they were very successful last year, as usual, with an offense centered around Rivers ability to create scoring at will. Unfortunately, that was not a very pretty offense (in my mind) and it sounds like this year's offense may be very fun to watch, and hopefully very effective. I very much enjoy watching a motion offense with lots of movement and passing and hopefully, lots of Kelly and Mason at the high post.


(10) Let’s Go Duke

Once again, I can’t wait for the season to start. Go Duke, and GTHC.

I agree very much. Bring on the season and Go Duke!

[Kedsy]

I wonder if Mason and Ryan will play 30 mpg each. My impression is that coach K has his top guards typically play 30 mpg+, but is that the case for big men? Shelden Williams played 33+ mpg each of his final two years, McRoberts played 35+ his sophomore year, Boozer played 28+ mpg his junior year, Brand played 29+ his sophomore year.
Answering my own question, I would have to agree with you that Ryan and Mason may very well play 30 mpg each, though I am (as always) hoping to see some minutes for players 7-10, realizing that K's distribution of minutes tends to work quite well.

Going back even further, Cherokee Parks played 30.5 and 35.2 his last two years; Christian Laettner played 30.2 and 32.2; Danny Ferry played 32.5 and 33.2. If our big men are among our best players, they play a lot.

[superdave]

(3) D

After last season, in which our defense was perhaps the worst it has been in the K era, this may be the biggest question of the season. Will our defense be any better this year? And if so, how much?

Well, one of the biggest issues from last season appeared to be the small stature of our backcourt. And that's not going to change much, with Quinn Cook and Seth Curry having listed heights of 6'0 and 6'2, it will be the shortest backcourt we've had since... 1986. And while it worked out fine while Tommy Amaker and Johnny Dawkins harassed opposing backcourts, it's unlikely that Quinn and Seth can match the 1986 duo's defensive acumen.

Last season we also had the additional issue of playing a small forward who was 6'4. The combined height of our three perimeter players in 2011-12 tied for an all-time low in the K era, along with 2006 (#13 defense, according to Pomeroy) and 1986 (no Pomeroy, but pretty good D). But obviously that wasn't the whole story considering the other teams who played that small. The good news here is our starting SF this season is likely to be Alex Murphy, who at 6'8 has plenty of size for the position.

But perhaps the real issue was that none of our perimeter players displayed a great amount of lateral quickness. Is Alex Murphy going to help that? Will a healthy Quinn show a great improvement there? Is there anyone else coming to the rescue? I think the generally accepted answer is "we hope so" to the first two questions and "Rasheed Sulaimon" to the third. But we won't know for sure about any of them until we see Alex, Quinn, and Rasheed in action. And even against Division II competition, this is something we should have a much better feel for after Phase 0.

Again, it may be that part of the solution to the defense conundrum may lie in the passing of time and gaining of experience. At the Ft. Bragg practice, Coach K said last year's squad had the "wrong attitude" when it came to playing defense. After the embarrassment at Lehigh's hands, the hope here is our many veterans, especially our three seniors, will do their best to make sure that attitude changes.

One last thought here is I wonder whether simply having Rodney Hood on the Blue Team in practice will make our defense better. Who on last year's Blue Team could have challenged the D in practice the way Rodney probably can? He can give Seth practice guarding a much taller scoring guard, and give Alex practice guarding a quicker scoring forward. It may not be the deciding factor, but it certainly can't hurt.


One of the relics from last season that I'll be paying attention to was Coach K's propensity to go his best defensive squad when he did not like the effort and execution of the starters/regular rotation. We saw Tyler play 21 minutes a game as Coach K's defensive security blanket. If things break down defensively, will Seth and/or Quinn be on a short leash?

Additionally, I'll be looking to see if Rasheed is able to become a go to defensive stopper early in the season which I believe will provide him with enough important minutes to grow more comfortable on the offensive end. There's potential for a big role for Rasheed, particularly if he can become a part of Coach K's preferred defensive lineup.

Outside of Rasheed, I do not think we will have enough perimeter quickness to jump the passing lanes to generate turnovers like Duke teams of the past. I do think Mason, Ryan, Alex and Amile will actually be quick enough to generate turnovers by getting into the passing lanes. But that's more likely to get us into a secondary break rather than a true fast break. Mason is very athletic while Ryan is pretty crafty. I think they could be the source of a lot of our forced turnovers this year, more so than our smaller, not uber-quick guards.

I think Coach K is likely to get a better response out of this year's squad on D. It's unlikely a Coach K team is that bad on D two years in a row. I dont know how much the improvement will be from scheme adjustments vs. improved effort and execution, but we should revert to the Duke mean to some extent.

[Kedsy]

I think Coach K is likely to get a better response out of this year's squad on D. It's unlikely a Coach K team is that bad on D two years in a row. I dont know how much the improvement will be from scheme adjustments vs. improved effort and execution, but we should revert to the Duke mean to some extent.

FWIW, in the 10 years that Pomeroy has tracked defensive efficiency, Duke has been out of the top 10 four times. Each of the previous times we rebounded the following year to get back into the top 10:



Year Def Eff Rank
---- ------------
2003 15
2004 4
2005 1
2006 13
2007 5
2008 9
2009 20
2010 4
2011 8
2012 70


Of course, we'd never been worse than 20 before last season; this trend may be meaningless trying to get back from a lowly rank of 70. But I'd be remiss as a Duke homer if I didn't point out how we recovered from being #20 in 2009...

Also, I wonder if the every-three-year pattern has any meaning?

[Dev11]

Also, I wonder if the every-three-year pattern has any meaning?

Relative to there being something like 360 D-1 programs, I'd say last year is the only outlier in the bunch. That was due to a particular lack of experience at all starting positions, and should be corrected this year.

Great thread.

[wk2109]

FWIW, in the 10 years that Pomeroy has tracked defensive efficiency, Duke has been out of the top 10 four times. Each of the previous times we rebounded the following year to get back into the top 10:



Year Def Eff Rank
---- ------------
2003 15
2004 4
2005 1
2006 13
2007 5
2008 9
2009 20
2010 4
2011 8
2012 70


Of course, we'd never been worse than 20 before last season; this trend may be meaningless trying to get back from a lowly rank of 70. But I'd be remiss as a Duke homer if I didn't point out how we recovered from being #20 in 2009...

Also, I wonder if the every-three-year pattern has any meaning?

I think it's funny that the 2007 team, the least successful Duke squad in the last 15 years, was the rebound from the 2006 team, a #1 seed that featured the NDPOY.

I also found these parallels to 2010 a little interesting:
-both teams bring back 3 senior starters with 2 of those starters being big men (although Z didn't start till February)
-both teams lost their leading scorer from previous season (Gerald and Austin -- both early-entry wings, drafted in lottery, sons of former NBA players)
-the 2 other starters in 2010 were Kyle and Nolan, and the 2 other projected starters in 2013 are Alex (Kyle 2.0, #12 jersey) and Quinn (Nolan's godbrother, #2 jersey)

[superdave]

I also found these parallels to 2010 a little interesting:
-both teams bring back 3 senior starters with 2 of those starters being big men (although Z didn't start till February)
-both teams lost their leading scorer from previous season (Gerald and Austin -- both early-entry wings, drafted in lottery, sons of former NBA players)
-the 2 other starters in 2010 were Kyle and Nolan, and the 2 other projected starters in 2013 are Alex (Kyle 2.0, #12 jersey) and Quinn (Nolan's godbrother, #2 jersey)

Yes, yes. Go on...

I certainly do think the pieces are there to have a run like 2010. We have the mix of bodies and experience at the 4/5. We have a guard rotation that can potentially make a huge leap over last year. If these guys start executing on defense and gel on offense, which will take some time I assume, they can start to peak later in the year. We can also see All-American years from potentially Ryan and Mason, breakout years from a couple of guys including Rasheed, Quinn and Alex, and the team ought to be hungry after last March.

[Troublemaker]

Top-notch post as usual, Kedsy. Thanks for starting the Phases.

Some quickie thoughts from me (not responding to anything you wrote):

The bigs were part and parcel to the defensive problems last year along with the small perimeter / lack of a mid-sized player. Ryan and Mason are not good guarding ball screens and generally not as quick or instinctive as past Duke bigs that have helped contribute to previous great Duke defenses. I don't believe it's within this team's ceiling to be a great, top-5 defensive team. But we can improve to the point where you would call us a good, top-20ish defense. That's what I'm hoping for.

The lack of a mid-sized player from last year affected the 3-position but also the 4-position. I think Coach K is going to love having a long, athletic Amile Jefferson out there subbing for Ryan or playing alongside Ryan when the latter shifts to the 5. When Amile's on the court, he'll allow Duke to switch 1 thru 4 and help provide a quicker, more attacking lineup (especially if Thornton or Rasheed share the court as well). Yes, I'm optimistic Amile's smart enough to pick up Duke's schemes fairly early in the season and will become the primary backup big, seeing 20 minutes/gm. And he can score, too. I'm very high on Amile, and if we do special things this season, the fans are going to look back and say, "Wow, I'm sure glad we were able to sign him. There's no way we do some of those things without Amile."

Small lineups are not inherently bad. Being limited to only playing small is bad. Lack season Coach K lamented lacking the option of putting good perimeter size on the court when it was needed, e.g. when facing a Harrison Barnes at the 3. But there are times when a small lineup can be effective, too. I say this because Duke will definitely have some lineups this year with Sheed at the 3 or Thornton at the 2. Do not rush to judgement on those lineups. Judge them by their effectiveness. Sometimes a big lineup works. Sometimes a small lineup works. Having the ability to play both is important.

Thornton's minutes will not be a zero-sum (or rather, 40-sum) game with Quinn. Thornton's just got too much Duke in him to have a limited role. He's the best natural leader on the team. He creates defensive havoc when he's out there, and I actually think he's better defensively off the ball (i.e. minutes at the 2, here we come). He's also developing into a pretty good shooter. He shot 35% last season from deep. I like his form, I really like his quick release. And knowing Tyler Thornton, you can bet he put up thousands of shots this summer and is likely a good shooter now, period, entering his junior year. A leader, defender, intangibles guy who can shoot is going to get minutes at Duke.

I tend to agree that Duke will have a 7.5/8 man rotation.



30 So Cook 25 Jr Thornton
25 Sr Curry 15 Fr Sheed {So Hood}
25 Fr Murphy {Sr Dawkins}
30 Sr Kelly 20 Fr Amile Jr Hairston
30 Sr MP2 Fr MP3

[tommy]

The lack of a mid-sized player from last year affected the 3-position but also the 4-position. I think Coach K is going to love having a long, athletic Amile Jefferson out there subbing for Ryan or playing alongside Ryan when the latter shifts to the 5. When Amile's on the court, he'll allow Duke to switch 1 thru 4 and help provide a quicker, more attacking lineup (especially if Thornton or Rasheed share the court as well). Yes, I'm optimistic Amile's smart enough to pick up Duke's schemes fairly early in the season and will become the primary backup big, seeing 20 minutes/gm. And he can score, too. I'm very high on Amile, and if we do special things this season, the fans are going to look back and say, "Wow, I'm sure glad we were able to sign him. There's no way we do some of those things without Amile."

Small lineups are not inherently bad. Being limited to only playing small is bad. Lack season Coach K lamented lacking the option of putting good perimeter size on the court when it was needed, e.g. when facing a Harrison Barnes at the 3. But there are times when a small lineup can be effective, too. I say this because Duke will definitely have some lineups this year with Sheed at the 3 or Thornton at the 2. Do not rush to judgement on those lineups. Judge them by their effectiveness. Sometimes a big lineup works. Sometimes a small lineup works. Having the ability to play both is important.

Thornton's minutes will not be a zero-sum (or rather, 40-sum) game with Quinn. Thornton's just got too much Duke in him to have a limited role. He's the best natural leader on the team. He creates defensive havoc when he's out there, and I actually think he's better defensively off the ball (i.e. minutes at the 2, here we come).[/CODE]

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, in particular with regard to the utility of having a long and athletic player like Amile, though I think Alex Murphy, with his size and skill set is going to help a lot at the 3/4 as well.

Only thing I disagree with is your evaluation of Tyler. I know the conventional wisdom is that Tyler "creates defensive havoc" out there, but the numbers don't back up that assertion. The percentage of stops that Duke got when Thornton was on the floor was actually a little lower than the success we had with Austin Rivers on the floor or with Quinn Cook on the floor, surprising as that might be. The stop percentage with Ty out there was ever so slightly better than with Curry, and much better than Dawkins. Tyler works hard on defense, but at least last year, that work did not result in the team having any greater success defensively.

And as a three point shooter, I don't think you can say that Ty excelled either. Our primary 3 point shooters last year were Rivers, Curry, Kelly, and Dawkins. Kelly led the team at almost 41%, Dawkins was at 39%, Curry 38% and Rivers 36.5%, all better than Thornton's 35%. The only guy to shoot a lower percentage was Quinn Cook at 25%, and he only shot 56 of em all year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I loved that we got Amile. I think he will provide this team with so much energy and diversity on both defense and offense. This year, there is a strong chance he'll be in the rotation, especially given Marshall's recent injury. Also, I like the idea of Amile at the 4 - he isn't the shooter that Kelly is, but he can put the ball on the floor better than either Ryan or Mason.

The issue is Amile guarding the 4. On GoDuke, he is listed at 195 pounds (and I would argue a generous 195). To put that in perspective, Thornton is listed at 190...

Amile cannot guard ACC 4s right now. He simple doesn't have the strength. McAdoo, who will play a lot of 4 this year, weights 40 pounds more than Amile. The most ideal solution would be for Amile to play the 4 on offense and switch to the 3 on defense. That would mean that the 3 on offense would play the 4 on D. I think Alex can certainly play this role. It also means that we become slightly less interchangeable with our line-ups, which isn't that big of a deal.

I'm expecting big things from Amile, but bottomline is that if he wants to play the 4, he needs to bulk up big. Right now, all those stringbean jokes about Henson are coming back to bite us in the arse.

[Kedsy]

OK, so I was thinking about Duke vs. Kentucky. The consensus around here seems to be Duke has a very good chance to win in November, but woe be us if there's a rematch in March. So I'm comparing the likely rotations, and I don't understand this mindset.

Point guard:

Ryan Harrow vs. Quinn Cook (and Tyler Thornton)

Similar players, similar size. Harrow might be a bit quicker than Quinn, although supposedly we haven't seen the new Quinn. Harrow played more his one year at NC State than Quinn did his one year at Duke, but especially taking Quinn's injury into account this one looks no worse than a wash for Duke. Note also that we have Tyler backing Quinn up, and Kentucky really doesn't have a backup PG (one of their two SGs will have to run point when Harrow is on the bench). And assuming Quinn is the real deal, this can only look better for Duke in March than it does now.

Shooting guard:

Archie Goodwin and Julius Mays vs. Seth Curry and Rasheed Sulaimon

Goodwin was the #10 prospect in the country and Rasheed was #12. If it weren't for MaxPreps, who rated Goodwin #7 and Rasheed #20, then Rasheed would have been ranked higher. They're the same size and were both big scorers in high school. Rasheed has more of a defensive reputation, but you never know there. Only real difference I can see between these two guys is Goodwin will be starting and Rasheed will probably come off the bench. Seth Curry is coming off an All ACC campaign, while Julius Mays transferred in from Wright State (after two disappointing seasons at NC State). They're both listed at 6'2 and Seth is clearly the better overall player. I think you have to say edge Duke here.

Center: Nerlens Noel vs. Mason Plumlee

Edge to Duke on offense; maybe edge to Kentucky on defense. Noel may be the #1 or #2 freshman in the country, but Coach K thinks Mason may be one of the top 5 players in the nation. And he's a senior. It's hard to see Kentucky with an edge here, certainly not a big edge. Not now, and not in March, either.

Power forward: Kyle Wiltjer vs. Ryan Kelly

Similar players, Ryan is a senior and a lot more accomplished than sophomore Wiltjer. Edge Duke. Both now and then.

Small Forward: Alex Poythress vs. Alex Murphy

Poythress was the #8 recruit in the country. Alex was rated around #15 in the same class before he reclassified. They're about the same size, but our Alex has had a year of college practice and weight training. Hard to tell at this point, maybe a small edge to Kentucky (not as big an edge as Duke has at PF).

Backup forwards:

Willie Cauley vs. Marshall Plumlee/Amile Jefferson/Josh Hairston

All these guys are projects. Cauley was the #38 recruit in the country, while Amile was #21. Josh Hairston was #31 two years ago and is now a junior. Marshall was only #61, but he's a little bigger than Cauley and K has been heaping praise on him (and of course he's injured now, but hopefully will be up to full strength by March). If only based on quantity, and having never seen Cauley play, I'd probably give a small edge to Duke, but let's call it a wash.


So, overall, the two lineups seem very similar. Only major difference is Duke has more depth and a lot more experience (Kentucky will have four freshmen, a sophomore, and two transfers in their rotation, while Duke will have three seniors and at least one junior along with a sophomore, a freshman, a redshirt freshman, and not sure as the 8th guy. You might call coaching even (although I wouldn't), but you're not going to give Kentucky an edge in that department, either. The more I look at this, I don't see how Kentucky is a top three team while Duke is a borderline top 10 team, and I don't see Kentucky improving so much that there'll be a big difference in March, either.

Just my opinion, of course. If people think I'm way off base, please tell me why.

[Wander]

If people think I'm way off base, please tell me why.

Look at some mock NBA drafts. Draftexpress has Nerlens Noel at 2, Alex Poythress at 8, Archie Goodwin at 10, Mason Plumlee at 12, and Ryan Harrow at 26. NBAdraft.net has Noel at 4, Poythress at 8, Harrow at 13, and Plumlee at 25.

I'm fairly certain "It's hard to see Nerlens Noel having an edge over Mason Plumlee in March" and "Harrow vs Cook is no worse than a wash for Duke" are statements zero scouts would agree with.

BTW, I think Duke will beat Kentucky, and won't be surprised if we do in March either.

[MChambers]

Look at some mock NBA drafts. Draftexpress has Nerlens Noel at 2, Alex Poythress at 8, Archie Goodwin at 10, Mason Plumlee at 12, and Ryan Harrow at 26. NBAdraft.net has Noel at 4, Poythress at 8, Harrow at 13, and Plumlee at 25.

I'm fairly certain "It's hard to see Nerlens Noel having an edge over Mason Plumlee in March" and "Harrow vs Cook is no worse than a wash for Duke" are statements zero scouts would agree with.

BTW, I think Duke will beat Kentucky, and won't be surprised if we do in March either.
NBA teams draft on potential as much as anything. Noel probably will have a better NBA career than Mason, but that doesn't mean he'll be better in November, or this season for that matter.

[Wander]

Noel probably will have a better NBA career than Mason, but that doesn't mean he'll be better in November, or this season for that matter.

Of course, that's not inconsistent with anything I said.

[Duvall]

Look at some mock NBA drafts. Draftexpress has Nerlens Noel at 2, Alex Poythress at 8, Archie Goodwin at 10, Mason Plumlee at 12, and Ryan Harrow at 26. NBAdraft.net has Noel at 4, Poythress at 8, Harrow at 13, and Plumlee at 25.

Ryan Harrow as a first round pick? Ryan Harrow as a lottery pick?

I think you just refuted your own argument.

[MChambers]

Of course, that's not inconsistent with anything I said.
I beg to differ.

[Kedsy]

Look at some mock NBA drafts. Draftexpress has Nerlens Noel at 2, Alex Poythress at 8, Archie Goodwin at 10, Mason Plumlee at 12, and Ryan Harrow at 26. NBAdraft.net has Noel at 4, Poythress at 8, Harrow at 13, and Plumlee at 25.

I'm fairly certain "It's hard to see Nerlens Noel having an edge over Mason Plumlee in March" and "Harrow vs Cook is no worse than a wash for Duke" are statements zero scouts would agree with.

BTW, I think Duke will beat Kentucky, and won't be surprised if we do in March either.

I'm not talking about what NBA scouts think. The things they're looking for are not necessarily important for success at the college level. They're also looking at the long term and I'm looking at the short term. NBA draft position often has little to do with who is a better college player. In three years, Nerlens Noel might be a superstar, and thus is worth a #2 pick in the next draft. Doesn't mean freshman Nerlens Noel is a better college player than senior Mason Plumlee. I remember watching Christian Laettner dominate Shaquille O'Neal at Cameron, despite Shaq being a much better NBA prospect who everyone thought would be (and was) a #1 pick.

Most scouting reports I've read about Noel say something similar to the following quote from DraftExpress (http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz29tZ1Uiyp), describing Noel as "pretty raw inside the post in terms of his footwork and touch." Do you honestly think he's a significantly better player right now than Mason? To me, NBA scouting reports and predicted draft positions are more or less irrelevant to this discussion.

Put another way, if Ryan Harrow is really a first round pick, then presumably he was also a first round pick at the end of his only year of college ball (since the scouts haven't really seen him play since). And yet he didn't make any of the three All ACC teams, or even honorable mention, nor was he chosen for the All rookie team. Malcolm Delaney was first team All ACC and was clearly the better player, but he went undrafted. Demontez Stitt was third team All ACC, was clearly the better player, and also went undrafted. Etc., etc. If NBA scouts thought Ryan Harrow would eventually be an NBA draft choice, it didn't make him better than those other guys.

[timmy c]

OK, so I was thinking about Duke vs. Kentucky. The consensus around here seems to be Duke has a very good chance to win in November, but woe be us if there's a rematch in March. So I'm comparing the likely rotations, and I don't understand this mindset.

Point guard:

Ryan Harrow vs. Quinn Cook (and Tyler Thornton)

Similar players, similar size. Harrow might be a bit quicker than Quinn, although supposedly we haven't seen the new Quinn. Harrow played more his one year at NC State than Quinn did his one year at Duke, but especially taking Quinn's injury into account this one looks no worse than a wash for Duke. Note also that we have Tyler backing Quinn up, and Kentucky really doesn't have a backup PG (one of their two SGs will have to run point when Harrow is on the bench). And assuming Quinn is the real deal, this can only look better for Duke in March than it does now.

Shooting guard:

Archie Goodwin and Julius Mays vs. Seth Curry and Rasheed Sulaimon

Goodwin was the #10 prospect in the country and Rasheed was #12. If it weren't for MaxPreps, who rated Goodwin #7 and Rasheed #20, then Rasheed would have been ranked higher. They're the same size and were both big scorers in high school. Rasheed has more of a defensive reputation, but you never know there. Only real difference I can see between these two guys is Goodwin will be starting and Rasheed will probably come off the bench. Seth Curry is coming off an All ACC campaign, while Julius Mays transferred in from Wright State (after two disappointing seasons at NC State). They're both listed at 6'2 and Seth is clearly the better overall player. I think you have to say edge Duke here.

Center: Nerlens Noel vs. Mason Plumlee

Edge to Duke on offense; maybe edge to Kentucky on defense. Noel may be the #1 or #2 freshman in the country, but Coach K thinks Mason may be one of the top 5 players in the nation. And he's a senior. It's hard to see Kentucky with an edge here, certainly not a big edge. Not now, and not in March, either.

Power forward: Kyle Wiltjer vs. Ryan Kelly

Similar players, Ryan is a senior and a lot more accomplished than sophomore Wiltjer. Edge Duke. Both now and then.

Small Forward: Alex Poythress vs. Alex Murphy

Poythress was the #8 recruit in the country. Alex was rated around #15 in the same class before he reclassified. They're about the same size, but our Alex has had a year of college practice and weight training. Hard to tell at this point, maybe a small edge to Kentucky (not as big an edge as Duke has at PF).

Backup forwards:

Willie Cauley vs. Marshall Plumlee/Amile Jefferson/Josh Hairston

All these guys are projects. Cauley was the #38 recruit in the country, while Amile was #21. Josh Hairston was #31 two years ago and is now a junior. Marshall was only #61, but he's a little bigger than Cauley and K has been heaping praise on him (and of course he's injured now, but hopefully will be up to full strength by March). If only based on quantity, and having never seen Cauley play, I'd probably give a small edge to Duke, but let's call it a wash.


So, overall, the two lineups seem very similar. Only major difference is Duke has more depth and a lot more experience (Kentucky will have four freshmen, a sophomore, and two transfers in their rotation, while Duke will have three seniors and at least one junior along with a sophomore, a freshman, a redshirt freshman, and not sure as the 8th guy. You might call coaching even (although I wouldn't), but you're not going to give Kentucky an edge in that department, either. The more I look at this, I don't see how Kentucky is a top three team while Duke is a borderline top 10 team, and I don't see Kentucky improving so much that there'll be a big difference in March, either.

Just my opinion, of course. If people think I'm way off base, please tell me why.

This One-on-One analysis is really interesting – well done! I wish I had time to write a response when you first posted, but this will have to do.

Unfortunately, this game won’t be played as a serious of one-on-one matchups; instead teams will look to win games by seizing small advantages when switches happen. (Remember how difficult it was for teams to matchup with Kyle Singler when he moved from the 2/3/4 without a timeout being called? Kyle could do that because Lance Thomas could also guard the 2/3/4. See also the 2012 Miami Heat with James/Battier.) This is exactly where you’re one-on-one analysis breaks down. Basketball isn’t played like the Ryder Cup. This is why I would argue that I’d rather face UK in November than March.

Let’s take a look at Kentucky’s roster to elucidate the subject.

Alex Poythress is a 6-8 athlete with a 7-0 wingspan. On the defensive end he could guard both forward positions and stay in front of guards during pick-n-roll situations. On offense he can shoot over smaller guards and go by bigger forwards. Poythress verse Seth or Ryan is a big advantage for Poythress.

Archie Goodwin is another super athlete with serious length – 6-5, with a 6-10 wingspan. Murphy or Quinn will have serious problems stopping him in the dribble-drive motion offense. If Duke choices not to switch, Rasheed will have to have the strength to be able to get over the screen to prevent the 3.

Nerlens Noel might be the most interesting matchup issue. Noel is 6-11 with a 7-4 wingspan. He’s shown great footwork in defending the pick-n-roll or the pick-n-pop -This is extremely rare. (This is one of the reasons it takes big men longer to develop.) His offense is immature but he will defend any 4 or 5 that Duke puts on the floor. Willie Cauley is a legit 7 footer who would allow Noel to move to the 4 to accentuate matchup problems.

The reality is that few players improve dramatically during the season. Improvement comes as teams learn to recognize the matchups quicker on offense and defense.

If you are still not sure that matchup problems aren’t the key to winning basketball games, check out the incredible stock of future Duke wings that Coach K has recruited- Hood, Suilamon, Jones, Ojeleye. They all have the length and athleticism to defend multiple positions.

Kentucky recruits players that already have the individual talent. In fact I would argue that Kentucky has more pure talented at 3 positions, at the very least. In November, this team will be young enough that it’s possible that they won’t take advantage of all the matchup issues. I would be hesitant to say that about their team in March.

[Dukeblue91]

This One-on-One analysis is really interesting – well done! I wish I had time to write a response when you first posted, but this will have to do.

Unfortunately, this game won’t be played as a serious of one-on-one matchups; instead teams will look to win games by seizing small advantages when switches happen. (Remember how difficult it was for teams to matchup with Kyle Singler when he moved from the 2/3/4 without a timeout being called? Kyle could do that because Lance Thomas could also guard the 2/3/4. See also the 2012 Miami Heat with James/Battier.) This is exactly where you’re one-on-one analysis breaks down. Basketball isn’t played like the Ryder Cup. This is why I would argue that I’d rather face UK in November than March.

Let’s take a look at Kentucky’s roster to elucidate the subject.

Alex Poythress is a 6-8 athlete with a 7-0 wingspan. On the defensive end he could guard both forward positions and stay in front of guards during pick-n-roll situations. On offense he can shoot over smaller guards and go by bigger forwards. Poythress verse Seth or Ryan is a big advantage for Poythress.

Archie Goodwin is another super athlete with serious length – 6-5, with a 6-10 wingspan. Murphy or Quinn will have serious problems stopping him in the dribble-drive motion offense. If Duke choices not to switch, Rasheed will have to have the strength to be able to get over the screen to prevent the 3.

Nerlens Noel might be the most interesting matchup issue. Noel is 6-11 with a 7-4 wingspan. He’s shown great footwork in defending the pick-n-roll or the pick-n-pop -This is extremely rare. (This is one of the reasons it takes big men longer to develop.) His offense is immature but he will defend any 4 or 5 that Duke puts on the floor. Willie Cauley is a legit 7 footer who would allow Noel to move to the 4 to accentuate matchup problems.

The reality is that few players improve dramatically during the season. Improvement comes as teams learn to recognize the matchups quicker on offense and defense.

If you are still not sure that matchup problems aren’t the key to winning basketball games, check out the incredible stock of future Duke wings that Coach K has recruited- Hood, Suilamon, Jones, Ojeleye. They all have the length and athleticism to defend multiple positions.

Kentucky recruits players that already have the individual talent. In fact I would argue that Kentucky has more pure talented at 3 positions, at the very least. In November, this team will be young enough that it’s possible that they won’t take advantage of all the matchup issues. I would be hesitant to say that about their team in March.

All this does not account for any improvement Duke will make as a team.
No matter what, we have all the individual pieces in place and if we play as a team unlike last year I think our experience will prevail.
We have quite a few players that have played with each other for some time now and some nice additions that can be added in at a nice pace and if the older guys gel with the newer ones I think Duke will be a tough team to be beat by anyone.

[Kedsy]

The reality is that few players improve dramatically during the season. Improvement comes as teams learn to recognize the matchups quicker on offense and defense.

If you are still not sure that matchup problems aren’t the key to winning basketball games, check out the incredible stock of future Duke wings that Coach K has recruited- Hood, Suilamon, Jones, Ojeleye. They all have the length and athleticism to defend multiple positions.

I agree the game is all about matchups, and causing mismatches. You've mentioned them one way, but they go the other way too. For example, you mention Goodwin being tough for Alex or Quinn on a switch, but Rasheed seems to be a similar player with similar dimensions -- presumably he'll be just as tough for Harrow or Wiltjer to defend. Mason, Ryan, Alex, and even Amile have the potential to cause a lot of matchup issues for our opponents. And Marshall Plumlee is just as legitimate a 7 footer as Cauley-Stein.

Kentucky is obviously very talented. As far as NBA talent, they are probably more talented than us. My point was that as far as college talent, the two teams seem pretty even, and we have the edge in depth and experience. If Poythress can have as great a freshman season as Kidd-Gilchrist, then even the college talent level would likely tilt more to Kentucky, but to me that would be a surprise. There's a big difference between being a top three recruit (Kidd-Gilchrist) and a top ten recruit (Poythress), and even taking that into account, I thought Kidd-Gilchrist showed an unusual amount of maturity for a freshman. And to me, Kidd-Gilchrist was the biggest key to last year's Kentucky success.

You're right that as a team, Kentucky should be more able to take advantage of their matchups in March than in November. But as a previous poster said, so will Duke. We have essentially a new point guard and a very different defensive rotation (with Rasheed, Alex, and Amile tossed into the mix), so we should be much more able to take advantage of our matchups in March as well. Having said all that, at this point I certainly wouldn't say we'll be better than Kentucky in March. But I don't think it's a foregone conclusion the other way, either. Ultimately, we'll just have to wait and see.

[Wander]

Kentucky is obviously very talented. As far as NBA talent, they are probably more talented than us. My point was that as far as college talent, the two teams seem pretty even, and we have the edge in depth and experience.

You are overestimating the difference between NBA talent and college talent. The vast majority of players with good NBA talent also have really good college talent (though the reverse may not be true). Every one of your match-ups has a Duke bias to it. Which I guess it's fine, as we're on a Duke website and all, but it seems to me that saying things like "the point guard situation vs Kentucky is no worse than a wash for Duke" is just unnecessarily setting up the possibility for people to be disappointed.

(btw, Cook averaged 11/3/2/4.5/0.5 pts/rbds/asts/TOs/stls in his two exhibition games, and Harrow had 15/3/5/2/4 in his first one, though I will preemptively agree with your counterargument that exhibition games don't mean a whole lot)

[Kedsy]

You are overestimating the difference between NBA talent and college talent. The vast majority of players with good NBA talent also have really good college talent (though the reverse may not be true). Every one of your match-ups has a Duke bias to it. Which I guess it's fine, as we're on a Duke website and all, but it seems to me that saying things like "the point guard situation vs Kentucky is no worse than a wash for Duke" is just unnecessarily setting up the possibility for people to be disappointed.

(btw, Cook averaged 11/3/2/4.5/0.5 pts/rbds/asts/TOs/stls in his two exhibition games, and Harrow had 15/3/5/2/4 in his first one, though I will preemptively agree with your counterargument that exhibition games don't mean a whole lot)

The vast majority of NBA draft picks aren't ready to play in the League for two or three or more years after they become pros. And guys who come out after their senior year generally have lower upside but are more ready to play than guys who come out after their freshman or sophomore year (although obviously there are exceptions). To me that says being a pro and being able to play are not necessarily the same thing.

I have no idea how much Ryan Harrow improved in his redshirt year with Kentucky. I do know he wasn't anywhere near a pro-level player when he last played in college. If the scouts think he's draftable, to me that just reinforces my point that they're looking for something other than ability to play on the college level.

In fact, in their one year of college ball, here are some comparative stats between Harrow and Quinn:

Ryan Harrow: off rating: 100.4; eff FG%: 41.4%; assist pct: 28.8; a/t ratio: 1.9; steals pct: 1.9
Quinn Cook: off rating: 118.5; eff FG%: 46.5%; assist pct: 31.5; a/t ratio: 3.5; steals pct: 2.1

Sure, Harrow accumulated his stats in more minutes, but Quinn is better in every category. And I understand Harrow had a redshirt year to work on his skills, but Quinn was hurt, so presumably he's a lot better as well. As you point out, one or two exhibition games is not going to decide this debate.

[Newton_14]

(1) Health

The past two seasons have shown how it feels when major injuries strike. Already this season, Marshall Plumlee is out 6 to 8 weeks with a fractured 2nd metatarsal and Seth Curry is nursing a leg injury that kept him out of most of the Ft. Bragg festivities. We all fervently hope that we've reached our quota for the season.

(2) How far will our experience take us?

In my mind, one of the major fallacies in sports reporting is the rating of college basketball teams based on what they've "lost" from the previous year, instead of on what they return. For example, we may have lost Austin Rivers and Miles Plumlee, but in a way that just means we have a lot of minutes and shots up for grabs among a deep roster of talented players. Even more important is this year's college player is almost always worth more than last year's version of the same player. In many cases, a lot more. And this is especially true when it comes to seniors.

Duke will have three seniors in the starting lineup: Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and Seth Curry. As has been discussed several times on this board, it's not often that a K-coached Duke team features three seniors in major roles (which I have defined as averaging 15 or more minutes a game*). But the few years this has happened have been memorable ones: 1986, 1989, 1990, 1994, 2006, and 2010**. Will the 2013 team rival the accomplishments of past senior laden lineups? Who can say. But I'd rather have three seniors in the starting lineup than three freshmen.
(3) D

After last season, in which our defense was perhaps the worst it has been in the K era, this may be the biggest question of the season. Will our defense be any better this year? And if so, how much?

(4) Bigness

There are a lot of Duke fans who fear that Coach K either doesn't know how to successfully use his big men or simply would rather depend on his guards. Odds are this season these folks will end up eating their words, possibly slathered with bar-b-q sauce. Coach K has said he thinks Mason Plumlee should contend for player of the year in the ACC and All America honors. We all know how valuable Ryan Kelly is after his absence at the end of last season. These two guys present the biggest mismatches for us on offense. So they may not get quite as many touches or shots as some people think they should, but they still ought to get plenty. Our shot chart this season should look a lot different than it has in the recent past.

In fact...

(5) Who's going to shoot?

With Austin leaving and Andre taking the year off, Duke will have fewer long range shooters than we've had in a long time. This is one reason why Seth Curry is going to play big minutes for us -- he's really the only long-range perimeter shooter we have. Sure, Ryan Kelly is a good three-point shooter, and he'll get plenty of opportunities, but he's streaky, and he's really not a volume shooter from out there. Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton can hit them, but neither is a truly reliable outside shooter. Alex Murphy seems like more of a slasher than a bomber. Rasheed Sulaimon hit a lot of outside shots in high school, but his form isn't textbook and it remains to be seen how accurate he'll be in the college game, at least until he gets accustomed to the faster pace and larger opponents. He might not find his range until his sophomore campaign. If anything happens to Seth or he goes into a slump, or even if he just gets guarded by Aaron Craft, we might start hearing the whines that Duke doesn't have any shooters. And wouldn't that be special?

(6) Smallness

In general, Alex Murphy is one of the biggest question marks of the upcoming season. He was supposedly a top 15 2012 recruit before he re-classified but he ended up as #49 in the 2011 RSCI. Coach K has said he could be a four year starter for us and appears to have penciled him in as the starter at SF this season, at least at the beginning. I expect Alex will embrace the opportunity and play around 25 minutes a game. But what if he doesn't? What if he can't guard the smaller, quicker SFs? And even if he can, what will we do in the other 15 minutes? It's possible Amile Jefferson can back Alex up at SF, although it's not a lock that Amile will be ready to guard smaller, quicker players either.

In fact, who knows whether Amile will be ready at all. With Marshall Plumlee injured and presumably behind once he returns, it's possible Coach K will slide Alex over to PF for some amount of time and give Rasheed more time at SF.

(7) The Point

So which will we get this year? The pre-injury, maybe-better-than-Marquis Teague Quinn Cook, or tentative, non-explosive, not-quite-quick-enough-to-play-college-defense Quinn Cook? Coach K has named him as the early starter, so he seems to believe we'll get the former. If he's right, then everything gets better. If Quinn's quickness has returned enough to allow him to successfully guard opposing PGs, then combined with the arrival of Rasheed, Alex, and Amile, our D could come right back to where we want it. And obviously everyone benefits by having a skilled, pass-first point guard out there.

As the coaching staff has said repeatedly this Fall, we don't really have a guy who can break down opposing defenses off the dribble. We're going to have to run a strong motion offense and point guard will be key. I love Tyler Thornton as an energy guy and help defender, but I don't have confidence in his ability to be a top notch point guard on offense. Rasheed Sulaimon might be able to step in, and might be forced to step in if Quinn can't cut in on defense, but he's only a freshman and while his ballhandling and passing were pretty good in high school they weren't his strongest attributes. It would be best if Quinn can be the guy at PG.

(8) Are our free throws truly free?

Last season Mason Plumlee's free throw abilities were so questionable our own fan base was making jokes about it, presumably to keep from breaking down in tears. Especially if Mason is going to be our go-to guy, he needs to hit better than the 50.5% from the line that he's achieved in his career so far. I assume he worked on this over the summer, but all we can do now is cross our fingers and hope for the best. Or at least not the worst.

(9) Bottom of the Rotation

Obviously things can change over the course of a season, but right now our starting lineup seems pretty set with Mason, Ryan, Alex, Seth, and Quinn. Rasheed appears ready to be the 6th man and play good minutes backing up three positions. But who comes after that?

I'm assuming Tyler is our 7th man. How much he plays would appear to be a function of how much Quinn plays. If the Quinn experiment goes well, then Tyler will probably be seeing somewhere between 10 and 15 minutes a game. Which I think will work out great, because I've always been more impressed by Tyler's ability to be a team energizer and defensive disruptor, rather than someone who has to conserve his energy to play 20+ minutes.

Assuming Mason and Ryan play about 30 mpg each, that leaves 20 minutes for the last three guys -- although it could be fewer than 20 if Coach K decides to slide Alex over to PF for some amount of time and play Rasheed at SF in a dreaded "small lineup." So the likelihood is at most one of Marshall, Amile, and Josh will see double-figure minutes as our 8th man. With Marshall injured, Amile and Josh will get the first crack. Whoever looks best will have a leg up in the race to play meaningful minutes in March.

(10) Let’s Go Duke

Once again, I can’t wait for the season to start. Go Duke, and GTHC.

A few thoughts after CTC and 2 exhibition games.
(1) Health

I was encouraged to see Seth get 17 minutes last night, and MP3 w/o the crutches. K said that Seth had not been able to play in scrimmage scenarios since September. (He gave the exact day but I am brain dead on what it was. Longtime no matter what). He labored due to not being in shape, but I saw no signs of limping or favoring the leg. He moved really well actually in his cuts. The play where he fell was not injury related. He went to initiate contact and use his body to shield the defender. However, the defender anticipated the move and jumped out of the way. Which made the foul call on Seth even more bizarre. If the leg responds well to the 17 minute test, I suspect Seth will work his way back into game shape fairly quickly and be back to 100% sooner than later. Really hope that is the case, and it does not linger and bother him all year. Anxious to see MP3 back in December to catch some of the holiday cupcake games so he can get his feet wet before conference play.
(2) How far will our experience take us?
Seth's case aside, the upperclassmen are off to good starts. Mason is a beast, Ryan, Josh, and Tyler, have all shown at least small amounts of improvement. Josh was good on defense last night, and made one very impressive move, driving from the wing to the middle of the lane, spinning left and drawing the foul on the lefty layup attempt. I sat directly across from the bench, and K and the assistants all showed great pleasure in that move, and "ahh man!" looks when the ball would not stay in the hoop. Getting Seth back will help a lot, but I am very pleased so far with both the Seniors and the Juniors.

(3) D
The early answer here appears to be very promising. Alex and Amile are both playing really good defense on the perimeter, and both have been impressive helping defend in the paint. We had no one to do that from the 3 spot last year. Now we have 2 guys that look capable. Big improvement. We saw the 3 guard look for a few minutes last night with Rasheed at the 3, but it appears at least for now, K will use that to change things up, vs having that be the norm. True test will come when the big games start. I am betting Alex and Amile are up to the challenge. Time will tell.

(4) Bigness

Another resounding yes, competition considered. A lot of focus to get Mason the ball, and we are also posting Ryan and even Amile up at times. So yes for Phase O, but we need to see the Phase 1 games for validation this is who we are. Mason can absolutely challenge for ACC POY if we stay the course. I believe we will. Crazy not to.
(5) Who's going to shoot?

Not much to go on in this category so far. We need Seth healthy for sure. Ryan will likely be the 2nd shooter from long range. Rasheed has shown he can hit the 3 as well. At this point, I would say those 3 guys will lead the team in 3's. Question is, can Quinn, and Alex join the party? Those 5 guys will be the long range threats. When Tyler is in, teams will dare him to shoot it out there. He is streaky, but has good form and gets great rotation every time. I think he can be a good spot up shooter. We will not shoot 30 3-Balls a game this year as we won't need to. I would expect 18-23ish per would be the range. 6 capable shooters, with two known producers in Seth/Ryan. I am in the camp Rasheed has a good year from that range as well. The other 3 guys just need to make enough to keep the defense honest.
(6) Smallness
Really good sign here in Phase 0. Even with MP3 hurt, Murphy has not played the 4. Mason, Ryan, Josh, and Amile have all handled their business in the paint on defense. It really looks like both Amile and Josh will be reliable options. If MP3 can also be counted on it will be a bonus. We won't know for sure until the tough competition.

(7) The Point
Mixed feelings here. Quinn is healthy and has really improved on defense. Big plus there. Offensively he is still finding his way. T/O rate has been disappointing, but it could be mainly because the team is a work in progress on offense. Quinn has not played bad, he just isn't racking up the assists as expected. I am very comfortable though with the ball in his hands leading the team. Tyler has performed well as the backup. Rasheed is also very capable if it came to it. His handle is good, and even though there are many similarities to Nolan, Rasheed sees the floor way better than Nolan ever did. His head is always up, and he has shown the ability to see and hit the open man when driving, or in the normal flow of the offense. This kid is going to be a stud before all is said and done.

I predict Quinn will improve game over game, and will be the starting PG all year. I also think the offense will improve over the course of the season as both Quinn and the team figure things out and puts it all together.

(8) Are our free throws truly free?
Mason is off to a great start which is good because he will lead this team in FT attempts. Not enough data on the others yet, but Amile's stroke looked good last night in his FT attempts. Murphy appears to need improvement. With Seth an Ryan you have money. I think Rasheed has a better stroke from the line than Austin so that should be an improvement. Not enough data to go on yet, but this team has a chance to be solid from the line.

(9) Bottom of the Rotation
We won't know this answer until Phase 1. We will get early information from the Kentucky and OSU games, but even there the injuries will necessitate K playing guys that may or may not play much come January. Amile is off to a great start and is the early leader to stick in the rotation, and maybe not at the bottom either. :) Really anxious to see MP3 get healthy and on the court so we can see if he is "one of the best 6 players" on the team. If yes, that is a huge bonus, but may squeeze Josh a bit. Who knows? Maybe K surprises and plays a deeper rotation than normal because bench production forces his hand. That would be sweet.

(10) Let’s Go Duke

This we can all agree on! Although based on the amount of conversation (or lack thereof), and the small amount of fannies in the seats last evening, I do believe many people are not excited about this team. I hate that too, because this group of kids has a chance to blossom into a really strong team. "Enjoy the journey" was never more appropriate.

FIST IN THE AIR! 1, 2, 3, TOGETHER!

[superdave]

A few thoughts after CTC and 2 exhibition games.
(3) D
The early answer here appears to be very promising. Alex and Amile are both playing really good defense on the perimeter, and both have been impressive helping defend in the paint. We had no one to do that from the 3 spot last year. Now we have 2 guys that look capable. Big improvement. We saw the 3 guard look for a few minutes last night with Rasheed at the 3, but it appears at least for now, K will use that to change things up, vs having that be the norm. True test will come when the big games start. I am betting Alex and Amile are up to the challenge. Time will tell.


I have not seen this team in action, but it sounds good to me that you are encouraged with the defense so far. I cant wait for the televised games so I can see for myself.

[Newton_14]

I have not seen this team in action, but it sounds good to me that you are encouraged with the defense so far. I cant wait for the televised games so I can see for myself.

I am definitely encouraged with the perimeter defense thus far. The porous perimeter defense last year was evident in the exhibition games. Obviously, they have to do it against top competition, but the early signs are promising.

[COYS]

A few thoughts after CTC and 2 exhibition games.

(7) The Point
Mixed feelings here. Quinn is healthy and has really improved on defense. Big plus there. Offensively he is still finding his way. T/O rate has been disappointing, but it could be mainly because the team is a work in progress on offense. Quinn has not played bad, he just isn't racking up the assists as expected. I am very comfortable though with the ball in his hands leading the team. Tyler has performed well as the backup. Rasheed is also very capable if it came to it. His handle is good, and even though there are many similarities to Nolan, Rasheed sees the floor way better than Nolan ever did. His head is always up, and he has shown the ability to see and hit the open man when driving, or in the normal flow of the offense. This kid is going to be a stud before all is said and done.

I predict Quinn will improve game over game, and will be the starting PG all year. I also think the offense will improve over the course of the season as both Quinn and the team figure things out and puts it all together.



I would like to go into more detail about Quinn's performance, so far. I recognize that you already hinted that Quinn's play has been better than the statistics suggest, so I don't want this to sound like I'm disagreeing with you. While Quinn hasn't been wowing anyone on offense in terms of assists, I feel like if you chart the offensive possessions in which Quinn is in and dominates the ball (which is virtually all of the possessions while Quinn is on the court), they have largely led to desirable outcomes (open shots, good entry passses Mason, and good floor spacing), even if the final shot is missed. I mentioned this on the post game threats for both of the exhibitions, but Quinn has missed out on a TON of easy assist opportunities through no fault of his own. Many of these were due to the shooter being hammered while going for the shot, allowing them to get the points at the free throw line but not crediting Quinn with the assist. In the WSSU game, he also missed a lot of assist opportunities because of missed wide-open shots. While I'm not sure that Duke will be dead-eye from three point range this season, I also think it unlikely that we will go 1-17 (with Quinn the only one with a make and therefore unable to earn an assist on the shot) in many contests. Basically, Quinn's assist rate is not indicative of the shot opportunities he has created, so far.

What has impressed me with Quinn is that he has played under control for almost the entirety of both exhibitions. He has worked to get Mason the ball and is a big part of why Mason has been scoring at a high rate. He also does a great job getting everyone else in the right spot on offense and then quickly getting the ball where it needs to be. He's had a few embarrassing turnovers, true, but fully three of his turnovers against WWU were in the final 3 minutes when I think it was clear he was a little tired but also the game was already out of hand. And, outside of the turnover on the very first possession against WSSU, he had none that resulted in and opposing team's fast break. Dead ball turnovers are not desirable outcomes, but they are far preferable to live ball turnovers that result in easy buckets in transition. Against a physical and relentless WSSU, he showed great ball security for the vast majority of the game and worked hard to get the offense to function in a defensive contest when our three pointers were not falling. He orchestrated the floor spacing and movement that set up a lot of missed layups and open three point shots that were missed. Also, we're getting Mason the ball, and that has a lot to do with Quinn.

Finally, Quinn's defense has actually been really good. Granted, it's been against inferior competition, but even last season we had trouble containing guards so it is a relief to see that he has been performing well on that end.

To summarize, Quinn has not shown anything to indicate Bobby Hurley should be nervous that his assist numbers are in jeopardy. That being said, we've seen Quinn's playmaking ability in flashes last season. However, this preseason we've gotten to see a more Scheyer-like side to Quinn. No, he has not been as turnover free as Scheyer was during his senior year, BUT he has shown the ability to make the offense work even in ugly games. He gets the ball to the right spots on the floor, puts people in the right positions, and has rarely forced anything. With a little luck, Quinn would have far better assist numbers, already. However, I think that the assist numbers will come as the rest of the team continues to gel and begins to his more of their shots. Better yet, Quinn's defense is very encouraging considering how weak our perimeter D was last year and how Quinn's defensive ability will go a long way toward determining how much court time he sees.

[Dukie@Wake]

May not be the best Thread to enter this post but seemed appropriate. A neighbor\friend of mine who is a high school coach got to attend practices at Duke, NCSU, and UNC last week and he shared some insights. Nothing earth shattering here but just neat to hear some in-person insight.

Duke - Best run practice of the three. Detailed down to the second and very business-like during the practice itself. Defense was the obvious focus from the start. K spoke with the HS coaches afterward and was congenial and informative. Saulimon & Jefferson were impressive as was Kelly & MP2. Murphy seemed to lack some confidence. Rodney Hood was a beast! My friend thought they could win the ACC with their experience and renewed defensive focus.

NCSU - Obviously the most talented group. Gottfried did not speak to the coaches left that to his assistants. Purvis and Leslie jumped out the most to him that day. Feels if this team is disciplined and can avoid foul trouble they should be the best of the lot in the ACC.

UNC - Young! McAdoo doesn't appear to be a leader - yet. Roy spent time with the HS coaches as well and was similar to K in openness about the forthcoming season. They have talent but it will have to grow up together. Williams stressed the importance of Paige playing well. My neighbor felt they could contend for the ACC if everything progresses through the season as they best hope but they clearly have more question marks than anyone else in the top tier.

[sagegrouse]

I thought Al's front page story was right on point.

sagegrouse

[OldSchool]

Great insights as usual, Kedsy. I would highlight two items from my perspective.

1. Assuming Quinn really is physically at 100%, then IMO this team's ceiling will depend to a large extent on what goes on between Quinn's ears. This team has all the tools to be a special team, and, barring injuries, I expect that his decision-making in running the offense will be the biggest determinative factor in our ability to succeed at the end of the season against other top teams. With the weapons we have, we don't need a score-first point guard. On the other hand, there will be moments when Quinn will need to know when to step in and look for his own shot. Defensively, I expect the team to be better than last year but not outstanding, so offensive efficiency will be very important in getting wins against other good teams. As good as we were last year offensively, we should have been even better. The collection of weapons on this team provides an opportunity for a talented point guard to demonstrate some real artistry.

2. Marshall's loss is very important IMO. You can't coach his combination of size and athleticism. He potentially gives us something approaching last year's outstanding front line of Mason, Miles and Ryan the potential of which of was to an extent wasted because of the limitations of our guard play. I am hoping that Quinn will elevate the guard play and thereby make our collection of bigs more effective.

[tastytaste]

Bilas in an Insider column on top 5 frontcourts claims that Marshall would be within top 6 of the rotation. I haven't seen him play recently but is he that far along?

[Olympic Fan]

Bilas in an Insider column on top 5 frontcourts claims that Marshall would be within top 6 of the rotation. I haven't seen him play recently but is he that far along?

That comes from a Coach K quote ... when he announced the injury at a press conference on Oct. 12, he said that Marshall was one of their top six players before the injury.

While we can argue about where he would rank vis a vis guys like Sulaimon, Cook, Thornton, Murphy, Jefferson, I think it's pretty clear that without the injury, Marshall would be the third player in the post rotation -- behind Mason and Ryan, but ahead of Josh (who might get some minutes on the wing ... when MP3 returns).

[CDu]

That comes from a Coach K quote ... when he announced the injury at a press conference on Oct. 12, he said that Marshall was one of their top six players before the injury.

While we can argue about where he would rank vis a vis guys like Sulaimon, Cook, Thornton, Murphy, Jefferson, I think it's pretty clear that without the injury, Marshall would be the third player in the post rotation -- behind Mason and Ryan, but ahead of Josh (who might get some minutes on the wing ... when MP3 returns).

I can't imagine that Hairston would play much (if any) wing with Murphy and Jefferson already there.

[COYS]

I can't imagine that Hairston would play much (if any) wing with Murphy and Jefferson already there.

I tend to agree with this. Josh is tough and a hard worker, but he hasn't shown much ability to hang with wing players on the perimeter. Against teams with bigger wings, Amile and Alex would be the first or second choice (in no particular order), with possibly Rasheed coming in third as the primary defenders. If Marshall really is top 6 in the rotation, then I would not be surprised to see those minutes come from Josh, not because Josh isn't capable of earning minutes, but because Marshall has apparently been impressing in practice and Amile and Alex have shown better on perimeter defense (admittedly, in a small sample size) than Josh has displayed. On the other hand, with Seth either out or at least limited on the court, we might actually see a lot of somewhat strange lineups. For a brief second against WSSU, Alex played shooting guard while Rasheed was taking a rest. I can certainly see scenarios where Quinn, Alex, Amile, Josh, and Ryan/Mason are all on the court from time to time, especially if there is foul trouble or Rasheed needs a rest.

[CDu]

I tend to agree with this. Josh is tough and a hard worker, but he hasn't shown much ability to hang with wing players on the perimeter. Against teams with bigger wings, Amile and Alex would be the first or second choice (in no particular order), with possibly Rasheed coming in third as the primary defenders. If Marshall really is top 6 in the rotation, then I would not be surprised to see those minutes come from Josh, not because Josh isn't capable of earning minutes, but because Marshall has apparently been impressing in practice and Amile and Alex have shown better on perimeter defense (admittedly, in a small sample size) than Josh has displayed. On the other hand, with Seth either out or at least limited on the court, we might actually see a lot of somewhat strange lineups. For a brief second against WSSU, Alex played shooting guard while Rasheed was taking a rest. I can certainly see scenarios where Quinn, Alex, Amile, Josh, and Ryan/Mason are all on the court from time to time, especially if there is foul trouble or Rasheed needs a rest.

Yeah, I think seeing Murphy at SG is much more likely than Hairston at SF. And that's only so long as Curry is limited. Once/if Curry is playing 25+ mpg, then I don't see much use for Murphy at SG either. But I definitely think a big lineup with Murphy and Jefferson on the wings and two bigs is more likely than two bigs and Hairston on the wing.

[Saratoga2]

Yeah, I think seeing Murphy at SG is much more likely than Hairston at SF. And that's only so long as Curry is limited. Once/if Curry is playing 25+ mpg, then I don't see much use for Murphy at SG either. But I definitely think a big lineup with Murphy and Jefferson on the wings and two bigs is more likely than two bigs and Hairston on the wing.

Health has always been #1 on the list of phased reports/comments. If Seth is significantly limited in PT, then we play with 3 guards to mostly fill 2 positions. That is precarious, since during the season, sickness, injury and foul trouble are bound to occur at times. I haven't seen them play as yet, but do we really think Alex can play the shooting guard role?

Also included in the health report is Marshall's injury, which will have him out of the lineup until close to the end of December and lord knows how long before he can be effective. We do have alternatives to fill in for the bigs, so I don't see it to be quite as critical as the possible guard issue.

Next year with Dawkins, Jones, Ojeleye and Hood all becoming available we should be loaded at guard and SF and perhaps Murphy and Jefferson can help out at PF, but missing on Austin Nichols hurts us, since Plumlee will be our only truly big player.

[Newton_14]

Yeah, I think seeing Murphy at SG is much more likely than Hairston at SF. And that's only so long as Curry is limited. Once/if Curry is playing 25+ mpg, then I don't see much use for Murphy at SG either. But I definitely think a big lineup with Murphy and Jefferson on the wings and two bigs is more likely than two bigs and Hairston on the wing.

I have always been very staunch in my stance that Josh is not and will not be a wing. However, K has thrown us a wrinkle. The motion offense is very different this year. There were times in the WSS game where Josh, Amile, and one of Mason or Ryan were in together. More than once in that scenario Josh ended up on the wing with the ball, with the option to feed the post, shoot, or drive. I mentioned in the post game that he actually made a really good move from the wing after being unable to dump it in the post to Mason. Mason cleared, Josh pump faked, drove to the middle of the lane, spun left and went up for a lefty layup. He drew the foul but the shot spun out. The entire coaching staff showed great enthusiasm for the move and "ah man" when the shot did not stay down.

When they were on the other end, Josh defended the post, and Amile defended the wing player. Not saying we will see it a lot, but darn if we didn't see it last game.

I don't think Josh can be a threat from behind the 3point line, but he can hit that 15-18 jumper consistently.

[CDu]

I have always been very staunch in my stance that Josh is not and will not be a wing. However, K has thrown us a wrinkle. The motion offense is very different this year. There were times in the WSS game where Josh, Amile, and one of Mason or Ryan were in together. More than once in that scenario Josh ended up on the wing with the ball, with the option to feed the post, shoot, or drive. I mentioned in the post game that he actually made a really good move from the wing after being unable to dump it in the post to Mason. Mason cleared, Josh pump faked, drove to the middle of the lane, spun left and went up for a lefty layup. He drew the foul but the shot spun out. The entire coaching staff showed great enthusiasm for the move and "ah man" when the shot did not stay down.

When they were on the other end, Josh defended the post, and Amile defended the wing player. Not saying we will see it a lot, but darn if we didn't see it last game.

I don't think Josh can be a threat from behind the 3point line, but he can hit that 15-18 jumper consistently.

The scenario you just described is Hairston at the PF spot, Jefferson at the SF spot. Defense is how we define positions. Otherwise, Kelly would probably be considered a SF. Similarly, Mason has ended up with the ball on the perimeter numerous times in his career. That doesn't mean he's played the wing. Hairston will almost certainly play the high post when he's in (like Kelly, minus the shooting touch). But he's not going to play the wing.

[Newton_14]

The scenario you just described is Hairston at the PF spot, Jefferson at the SF spot. Defense is how we define positions. Otherwise, Kelly would probably be considered a SF. Similarly, Mason has ended up with the ball on the perimeter numerous times in his career. That doesn't mean he's played the wing. Hairston will almost certainly play the high post when he's in (like Kelly, minus the shooting touch). But he's not going to play the wing.

Yeah, agree Josh is unlikely to play the 3 on defense, but it does look like K may have him playing on the wing on offense with Amile playing the 4, and then they switch on the defensive end with Josh defending the PF and Amile defending the SF.

Not sure we see it often but we did see it against WSS...

[superdave]

OK, so I was thinking about Duke vs. Kentucky. The consensus around here seems to be Duke has a very good chance to win in November, but woe be us if there's a rematch in March. So I'm comparing the likely rotations, and I don't understand this mindset.

Point guard:

Ryan Harrow vs. Quinn Cook (and Tyler Thornton)

Similar players, similar size. Harrow might be a bit quicker than Quinn, although supposedly we haven't seen the new Quinn. Harrow played more his one year at NC State than Quinn did his one year at Duke, but especially taking Quinn's injury into account this one looks no worse than a wash for Duke. Note also that we have Tyler backing Quinn up, and Kentucky really doesn't have a backup PG (one of their two SGs will have to run point when Harrow is on the bench). And assuming Quinn is the real deal, this can only look better for Duke in March than it does now.

Shooting guard:

Archie Goodwin and Julius Mays vs. Seth Curry and Rasheed Sulaimon

Goodwin was the #10 prospect in the country and Rasheed was #12. If it weren't for MaxPreps, who rated Goodwin #7 and Rasheed #20, then Rasheed would have been ranked higher. They're the same size and were both big scorers in high school. Rasheed has more of a defensive reputation, but you never know there. Only real difference I can see between these two guys is Goodwin will be starting and Rasheed will probably come off the bench. Seth Curry is coming off an All ACC campaign, while Julius Mays transferred in from Wright State (after two disappointing seasons at NC State). They're both listed at 6'2 and Seth is clearly the better overall player. I think you have to say edge Duke here.

Center: Nerlens Noel vs. Mason Plumlee

Edge to Duke on offense; maybe edge to Kentucky on defense. Noel may be the #1 or #2 freshman in the country, but Coach K thinks Mason may be one of the top 5 players in the nation. And he's a senior. It's hard to see Kentucky with an edge here, certainly not a big edge. Not now, and not in March, either.

Power forward: Kyle Wiltjer vs. Ryan Kelly

Similar players, Ryan is a senior and a lot more accomplished than sophomore Wiltjer. Edge Duke. Both now and then.

Small Forward: Alex Poythress vs. Alex Murphy

Poythress was the #8 recruit in the country. Alex was rated around #15 in the same class before he reclassified. They're about the same size, but our Alex has had a year of college practice and weight training. Hard to tell at this point, maybe a small edge to Kentucky (not as big an edge as Duke has at PF).

Backup forwards:

Willie Cauley vs. Marshall Plumlee/Amile Jefferson/Josh Hairston

All these guys are projects. Cauley was the #38 recruit in the country, while Amile was #21. Josh Hairston was #31 two years ago and is now a junior. Marshall was only #61, but he's a little bigger than Cauley and K has been heaping praise on him (and of course he's injured now, but hopefully will be up to full strength by March). If only based on quantity, and having never seen Cauley play, I'd probably give a small edge to Duke, but let's call it a wash.


So, overall, the two lineups seem very similar. Only major difference is Duke has more depth and a lot more experience (Kentucky will have four freshmen, a sophomore, and two transfers in their rotation, while Duke will have three seniors and at least one junior along with a sophomore, a freshman, a redshirt freshman, and not sure as the 8th guy. You might call coaching even (although I wouldn't), but you're not going to give Kentucky an edge in that department, either. The more I look at this, I don't see how Kentucky is a top three team while Duke is a borderline top 10 team, and I don't see Kentucky improving so much that there'll be a big difference in March, either.

Just my opinion, of course. If people think I'm way off base, please tell me why.

Once again, good call on this matchup, Kedsy. It's funny how the minutes we saw tonight did not match how we thought they would be distributed a short while ago. But you were correct on Duke's seniors. Hope our senior experience is a big advantage all year and allows the young guys to grow.