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View Full Version : Season tips off one month from today/Your expectations for 2012-2013



ohiodukefan
10-09-2012, 09:45 AM
With starting practice just a few days away and the Georgia Southern game tipping off one month from today, what are your expectations for the 2012-2013 Blue Devils?

Take into account:

This is a team that won 27 games last year but was embarrassed in the NCAA Tournament's first round losing to #15 seed Lehigh.

They lose their leading scorer in A. Rivers and center Miles Plumlee, both first ropund draft picks in the NBA.

The ACC has been down lately, allowing Duke and UNC to build impressive win totals in conference. I think that stops this year with the improvement in NC State, Florida St and Miami.

Duke will have 4 players expected to be important parts of the team that have never played in a college basketball game.

A tough, tough non-conference schedule that could include playing 3 or the top 10 teams in the country in the first 3 weeks of the season.

What do you think this team can achieve in win totals, ACC, seeding in the dance, and where they finish (1st round, 2nd round, Sweet 16, Final Four).

blazindw
10-09-2012, 09:51 AM
I expect us to go 40-0, go undefeated in the ACC, overall #1 seed in the tourney and win a National Championship with Mason getting consensus NPOY and Ryan Kelly getting Final Four MOP after averaging 30 ppg in beating Kentucky in the semifinal and being the difference in the title game when we beat UNC by 57. ;)


But seriously, I think we can win the ACC title (both regular season and tourney) and think that if we're hot and healthy, we'll go far in the tourney. It's always hard to predict that before we get there...anything can happen in March. The ACCs, we can predict. This team may start slow, but will grow as a unit and by February 1st, they'll hopefully be the team no one wants next on their calendar.

Dev11
10-09-2012, 10:03 AM
The ACC being on the up may hurt our win total a little from recent years, but may help keep us fresh for the tournament. I look forward to a more competitive ACC.

I also anticipate one of our seniors being an All-American candidate, and the three of them complementing each other well as the focal points of the offense.

I don't think 4 new guys will all play significant roles. We have 6 returning regulars, and I'll be shocked if we have 10 regular contributors. My guess would be that Amile gets the short end of the stick, although we see his minutes increase dramatically the following season with Mason and Ryan gone.

johnb
10-09-2012, 10:35 AM
I expect us to go 40-0, go undefeated in the ACC, overall #1 seed in the tourney and win a National Championship with Mason getting consensus NPOY and Ryan Kelly getting Final Four MOP after averaging 30 ppg in beating Kentucky in the semifinal and being the difference in the title game when we beat UNC by 57. ;)


I'll take 40-0 and let the details work themselves out...

sagegrouse
10-09-2012, 10:37 AM
I agree with Dev11 that one of our guys will contend for ACC MVP and 1st team All American. I have no idea who that will be, but here are four candidates:

Mason
Ryan
Seth
Quinn

The 2013 team will be at the top of the ACC -- first or second in the regular season -- and will have a good shot at the ACC championship. But 2013 will see a tough ACC and peril lurking in every game.

Our NCAA accomplishments, however, are beyond the range of my crystal ball.

sagegrouse

NSDukeFan
10-09-2012, 10:47 AM
With starting practice just a few days away and the Georgia Southern game tipping off one month from today, what are your expectations for the 2012-2013 Blue Devils?

Take into account:

This is a team that won 27 games last year but was embarrassed in the NCAA Tournament's first round losing to #15 seed Lehigh.

They lose their leading scorer in A. Rivers and center Miles Plumlee, both first ropund draft picks in the NBA.

The ACC has been down lately, allowing Duke and UNC to build impressive win totals in conference. I think that stops this year with the improvement in NC State, Florida St and Miami.

Duke will have 4 players expected to be important parts of the team that have never played in a college basketball game.

A tough, tough non-conference schedule that could include playing 3 or the top 10 teams in the country in the first 3 weeks of the season.

What do you think this team can achieve in win totals, ACC, seeding in the dance, and where they finish (1st round, 2nd round, Sweet 16, Final Four).

I am dreaming of the season that blazindw is envisaging in his first paragraph with a 10 man rotation with everyone contributing every game, with three seniors vying for all-American honors.

I am expecting a regular season with 25 wins, a top 2 regular season finish in the ACC, an ACCT semifinal appearance with hopefully another championship, a top 3 NCAA tournament seed (hopefully top 2), a 4-team tournament win the first weekend of the NCAA tournament and as good a chance as anyone to advance past that.

I also expect the team's 3 seniors to all be all-ACC performers and at least one of them competing for 1st team all-ACC and all-American honors.

As I am every year, I am very excited to watch this team play, go through some struggles, grow and improve. Bring on the season.

jcastranio
10-09-2012, 10:56 AM
We will win the ACC, the ACC Tournament, and move to the Elite 8. I can't call it from there.

None of this will be easy and we will have play some close games. Not a lot of blow-outs. Our defense will improve as the year progresses - just how much will determine how far we go.

This is a veteran team. Three key seniors. Two hard-working, blue-collar juniors. A talented sophomore point guard now at full strength. Four newcomers (two of whom practiced with the team all last year) - all of whom bring specific skills that will shore up specific weaknesses that we had.

We lost the superstar, lottery pick element, no doubt about it. And I really liked having Austin last year. We don't replace Austin (and Miles) with one player, though. We replace them with four.

So ...Keys will be:

- the defensive development of our newcomers.

- The emergence of an early first round NBA-type draft pick player from our seniors (Mason?, Ryan?, Seth?). I'm not talking potential - they all have it - I'm talking production.

- The re-integration of the so-called "small forward" back into the Duke system. We just didn't have that player last year. I think it is a key part of K's system and we were missing it.


I think ...

The point guard argument will continue all season.

Alex or Amile will emerge as a force in terms of minutes and being a key part of the team. I just don't know which.

Marshall will be a bigger factor off the bench than most people give him credit for.

Josh will bring us energy off the bench, but will have games where he doesn't get to play as much.

Rasheed will dazzle us and frustrate us as times - but will hit some keys shots in the post-season.

Mason and Ryan will be stars - Seth will lead the team in scoring, though.

A national championship is not out of the question.

NSDukeFan
10-09-2012, 11:17 AM
Let me add, I hope for no major injuries to any of the team this year, so the team can accomplish the great things they are capable of.

devildeac
10-09-2012, 11:28 AM
I expect us to go 40-0, go undefeated in the ACC, overall #1 seed in the tourney and win a National Championship with Mason getting consensus NPOY and Ryan Kelly getting Final Four MOP after averaging 30 ppg in beating Kentucky in the semifinal and being the difference in the title game when we beat UNC by 57. ;)


But seriously, I think we can win the ACC title (both regular season and tourney) and think that if we're hot and healthy, we'll go far in the tourney. It's always hard to predict that before we get there...anything can happen in March. The ACCs, we can predict. This team may start slow, but will grow as a unit and by February 1st, they'll hopefully be the team no one wants next on their calendar.

Reading the first paragraph, I was wondering if OZZIE had moved to DC and hijacked your laptop:rolleyes:;).

OldPhiKap
10-09-2012, 11:42 AM
If we stay healthy, we should certainly compete for the conference and national championships. Mason is a force, and Ryan is a real match-up problem for anyone. Lots of talent in the backcourt and on the wings, too. It may take some time for it to gel -- I'm not gonna get wigged if we have some real ups and downs early -- but at the end of the day we have the best coaching staff in America.

It will be nice to have something good to watch after football season is over.

CLW
10-09-2012, 11:49 AM
I think we will probably "struggle" (by Duke standards) out of the gate. I also think this team needs to play that "alarmingly nonathletic" style of the 10 squad and if they do they could make a deep run in March (if they get a decent draw with matchups). However, defense still concerns me and without any evidence to the contrary I must assume that the problem largely remains unchanged.

Kedsy
10-09-2012, 11:51 AM
We will win the ACC, the ACC Tournament, and move to the Elite 8. I can't call it from there.

I agree with these predictions, assuming no major injuries. Teams with three starting seniors tend to perform better than the pundits give them credit for.

As with last season, defense will be the key. I'm assuming our D will get back to the Duke D to which we've become accustomed, but that remains to be proven, of course.

With a veteran team, I expect we'll get through the early non-conference juggernaut with probably one loss, although neither zero losses nor two losses would surprise me all that much. I expect us to be the class of the ACC, much to the surprise and chagrin of the other triangle teams. I expect us to be a #1 seed, or maybe a #2. Despite dire DBR poster's predictions after tough road losses, I don't think we'll lose in the first weekend of the NCAAT. Once we've hit the 2nd weekend, though, you never know what will happen in the most unpredictable sporting event out there.

I predict lots of arguing and gnashing of teeth here at DBR over the rotation. But by the end of the season, we're going to be down to our usual 7 man rotation, maybe 8 if we fans get lucky. I expect Seth, Mason, Ryan, Quinn, Alex, Rasheed, and Tyler to be part of that rotation, so then it comes down to which of Marshall, Amile, and Josh becomes the 8th man, because the other two won't play much once January 1 rolls around. My guess is Amile emerges as the 8th man, but that's just a gut feel. Could be any of them. As far as the point guard "argument," I expect Tyler's minutes will dwindle town to around 10 mpg by the end of the season, but Tyler has always stymied my predictive powers, so you never know.

Kedsy
10-09-2012, 11:57 AM
However, defense still concerns me and without any evidence to the contrary I must assume that the problem largely remains unchanged.

We have no proof, but we do have some evidence -- this year we should have a defensive minded perimeter player in our rotation and also have a 6'8 wing player for most of each game. While it's true that neither Rasheed nor Alex have played a game at Duke yet, Rasheed's defensive reputation and Alex's size are certainly evidence that our D will be improved over last year's. How much improved is still up for debate. Quinn's ability to guard someone (now that he is supposedly fully healthy) will probably be the key to that.

PSurprise
10-09-2012, 12:15 PM
I would like to see us improve overall as a team as the season progresses. I am especially interested in seeing us improve our perimeter defense, which I think has been mentioned. I don't think we improved that much from the beginning of last year to the end. That's one thing I missed....Now who's going to step up the most?

killerleft
10-09-2012, 12:33 PM
I won't be satisfied until Conner Vernon is named ACC Player of the Year and we secure a good bowl game... lol, I probably won't be into basketball for a while yet.:) But if Nike Horvoth is as improved as everyone says, we'll be really, really good!

jipops
10-09-2012, 01:09 PM
I predict lots of arguing and gnashing of teeth here at DBR over the rotation. But by the end of the season, we're going to be down to our usual 7 man rotation, maybe 8 if we fans get lucky. I expect Seth, Mason, Ryan, Quinn, Alex, Rasheed, and Tyler to be part of that rotation, so then it comes down to which of Marshall, Amile, and Josh becomes the 8th man, because the other two won't play much once January 1 rolls around. My guess is Amile emerges as the 8th man, but that's just a gut feel. Could be any of them. As far as the point guard "argument," I expect Tyler's minutes will dwindle town to around 10 mpg by the end of the season, but Tyler has always stymied my predictive powers, so you never know.

I see this happening quite a bit as well. A solid 7 man rotation looks likely, though depending on how well Amile is able to fit in this could change. I think he could have the most trouble assimilating with the logjam of big experienced low post guys and the perimeter not being his strength at this time. If he can make an impact defensively, that is how he'll get his time.

I do expect improvement on the defensive end but largely because of increased experience. I think we'll still have the same problems with small perimeter players and we really don't know how effective Quinn Cook will be here. K will not hesitate to pull him or take him out of the starting 5 in favor of Thornton if this becomes a problem. I could see Rasheed being plugged in to any one of 3 positions on the perimeter. I think he'll be mostly a backup role to any one of the 3.

Mason and Ryan should be one of the more effective front court combos in the nation. Both are excellent passers, can score, rebound, and defend. These two should really free up the perimeter. I kind of feel like Murphy is going to fit in right away.

I am concerned a little about a lack of team speed. There aren't exactly many 6-5 to 6-8 gazelles out there. It should be interesting to see what kind of pace we play and what suits us best. I think there are going to be certain teams we have trouble defending, UNC being one of them.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if our regular season win total is less than last year's despite actually being a better team. The ACC race is a tossup to me. But better conference competition will help us immensely in March.

davekay1971
10-09-2012, 01:16 PM
I could care less about the regular season and barely more about the ACC Tournament except as those games affect NCAA seeding. I expect a National Championship, and anything else (30 win season, ACC championship, etc), mean nothing to me. NCAA title, or at least Final Four, or else I'll immediately launch into a March postmortem about how K's recruiting, his bench usage, his end of game slowdown, and the exhaustion of the starters doomed us.

Dukehky
10-09-2012, 01:21 PM
I expect about the same record through the regular season, with maybe a few more losses through the beginning of the season, but a stronger post-season showing. My honest attempt at objectivity thinks that we are an Elite 8 team. If things are better than that, then great, but that's what I'm expecting from the team this year. But with this kind of experience this squad has, you never know what can happen.

jipops
10-09-2012, 01:24 PM
Something else to point out, we may not be a great 3pt shooting team this year. Other than Seth and Ryan, who else do we look to from deep? Rasheed and Alex are essentially unknowns in this dept, Quinn never showed a reliable shot from outside, and neither did Tyler outside of the state of Hawaii.

Hopefully Ryan and Mason will create enough space of shooters.

Kedsy
10-09-2012, 01:37 PM
Something else to point out, we may not be a great 3pt shooting team this year.

This is a very good point and something I've been thinking about. Seth is going to take an awful lot of 3-pointers, at least early in the season. One key to our success is how well we'll take advantage of other teams gearing their defense to stopping Seth outside. If we just keep letting Seth jack 'em up and just hope he makes the more difficult shots through a double-team, we could be in for an unpleasant upset or two. If we take what the defense gives us and let Mason, Ryan, and Alex go wild inside (or let Quinn and Rasheed slash into the middle) when the other team focuses on Seth, we could be really hard to stop.

OldPhiKap
10-09-2012, 02:05 PM
But if Nike Horvoth is as improved as everyone says, we'll be really, really good!

Marty Pocius will be starting by the time we get to conference play, if K knows anything about basketball.

Book it.

uh_no
10-09-2012, 02:28 PM
National championship...and that's not just my duke blue glasses....

what do we have?

a great core of bigs, one who can turn defenses inside out and upside down by shooting 40% from 3...and another who will be a force down low....

a phenomenal shooting guard

two point guards...with quinn poised to be really good if he worked on his defense....

and a 5 star wing who spent a year learning the ropes....i think people are underestimating alex murphy....

#5 is the ceiling for this team, absolutely....

OldPhiKap
10-09-2012, 02:42 PM
National championship...and that's not just my duke blue glasses....

what do we have?

a great core of bigs, one who can turn defenses inside out and upside down by shooting 40% from 3...and another who will be a force down low....

a phenomenal shooting guard

two point guards...with quinn poised to be really good if he worked on his defense....

and a 5 star wing who spent a year learning the ropes....i think people are underestimating alex murphy....

#5 is the ceiling for this team, absolutely....

Show me the defense, and I'll sign on. Scoring should not be the issue this year.

ChillinDuke
10-09-2012, 02:44 PM
Show me the defense, and I'll sign on. Scoring should not be the issue this year.

Yep.

- Chillin

uh_no
10-09-2012, 02:55 PM
Show me the defense, and I'll sign on. Scoring should not be the issue this year.

a fully healthy quinn cook, and a real wing should take loads of pressure off....i would imagine those guys spent a lot of time on defense in the offseason

Billy Dat
10-09-2012, 03:00 PM
Does a Final Four birth trump a mediocre, by Duke standards, regular season?

Would you rather:

-22-8 regular season, 3rd place ACC regular season, ACC tourney first or second round loss AND Final Four with loss in semis
-27-3 regular season, beat Kentucky, win Bahamas tourny, ACC regular season title tie, win ACC Tourny, lose in Sweet 16

I guess it comes down to whether you think the FF or ACC Tourny/Regular season have more meaning. I am tempted to pick the Final Four season, but a 22-8 regular season would be tough as it was happening. Would it be overcome by the joy of seeing the team go on a magic run? Tough call, but I think the answer is yes.

This year?

The defense, point guard and athletic wings, essentially the calling cards of Duke Basketball under K, are all question marks. Our most consistent returning veterans are a 2 guard, a center and a pick and savvy pick and pop ~7 footer. There is so much up in the air that it is hard to make pre-season predictions. So, rather than look too far ahead, I'll say this:
-It would feel great for the team to beat Kentucky in Atlanta
-It would hurt terribly for the team to lose its non-con winning streak against Ohio State
-I would love for them to get a chance to play Pitino's Cardinals in the Bahamas

So, to get technical, my hopes for this year, 2012, are that we go 3-0 in those games. If that isn't possible, give me wins over Kentucky and Ohio State.

CLW
10-09-2012, 03:11 PM
We have no proof, but we do have some evidence -- this year we should have a defensive minded perimeter player in our rotation and also have a 6'8 wing player for most of each game. While it's true that neither Rasheed nor Alex have played a game at Duke yet, Rasheed's defensive reputation and Alex's size are certainly evidence that our D will be improved over last year's. How much improved is still up for debate. Quinn's ability to guard someone (now that he is supposedly fully healthy) will probably be the key to that.

Perhaps we are quibbling over the semantics of what constitutes "evidence" in our eyes. I too have high hopes for Rasheed but as you admit he and Alex have neither played a minute of college basketball. Other than Youtube highlights I've never seen Rasheed (or Alex for that matter) play so I'm generally cautious before laying such lofty expectations on frosh.

ESPN had this to day about Rasheed's "weaknesses": "Sulaimon is a capable defender but tends to loose focus at times which gets him out of position or he will gamble and pick up a cheap foul. (emphasis mine)

Similarly for Alex's "weaknesses": Defensively, he needs to establish a position for himself either by becoming strong enough to guard a 4 or laterally quick enough to contain a 3. (emphasis mine).

To me that to some extent could have been said about nearly all of our perimeter defenders last season (i.e. we appeared to lack focus for stretches and also lacked lateral quickness to really pressure the ball well).

We know Alex worked on building up his strength last year the question remains (in my mind at least) is he quick enough to contain a "3"?

Cook is another interesting variable as I have no idea how much he will improve given that he is now 100% healthy coming off his knee injury?

I guess I just want to actually see it first from Rasheed; Murphy; and Cook first before declaring we are a solid team on defense or even better than last season.

burnspbesq
10-09-2012, 03:19 PM
This could be a repeat of 1999, with both the men and the women making it to Monday/Tuesday night. Hopefully one or both will win this time (if EWill can stay out of foul trouble against Griner ...).

ohiodukefan
10-09-2012, 03:52 PM
You guys are way more postitive than I thought anyone would be. Afterall, this is the same squad that got kicked out of ACC Tourney in the 2nd round by Fla St after nearly losing to a bad Va Tech team in the first round. Then a small squad like Lehigh beats us in the tourney because they had 2 quick guards and we Curry and Thorton/Cook couldn't handle them. We lose Rivers and we gain Suliamon. We lose a lot offensively in that swithc but we gain defensively.

If, as K has done for 9 out of the last 10 years, and plays a 3 guard lineup, we're going to once again have a smalll lineup out there and Curry and Thorton/Cook will have to guard someone. Plus even though Mason and Miles had a distinct advatage over Lehigh's short, chubby inside players, we continued to shoot 3's all night while Mason got 9 shots (hitting 8) and Miles got 4. They should have got a combined 20-25. That has to change this year. Quit having Mason and Ryan 20-25 ft from the basket setting screens and get them in the paint where they can use their height and length to Duke's advantage. Maybe set screens in the paint for them.

Defensively, it we continue to play agressive half court man-to-man defense and have Mason and Ryan straying from the paint, we'll struggle against teams with quick guards. Mason and Ryan should never be more than 7 ft from the basket.

And I would love to see a front line of Mason, Ryan and Alex. We'd be a strong rebounding team and would block and alter a lot of shots in the paint. Could Mason, Ryan and Alex play man to man defesne against a smaller, quicker front line. Probably not. But there are ways to play man to man defense without playing to another teams strengths.

I think a top 3 finish in the ACC and hopefully get to a Sweet 16 and not get embarrasssed in Round 1 or 2 would be a decent year.

jimsumner
10-09-2012, 04:01 PM
You guys are way more postitive than I thought anyone would be. Afterall, this is the same squad that got kicked out of ACC Tourney in the 2nd round by Fla St after nearly losing to a bad Va Tech team in the first round. Then a small squad like Lehigh beats us in the tourney because they had 2 quick guards and we Curry and Thorton/Cook couldn't handle them. We lose Rivers and we gain Suliamon. We lose a lot offensively in that swithc but we gain defensively.

If, as K has done for 9 out of the last 10 years, and plays a 3 guard lineup, we're going to once again have a smalll lineup out there and Curry and Thorton/Cook will have to guard someone. Plus even though Mason and Miles had a distinct advatage over Lehigh's short, chubby inside players, we continued to shoot 3's all night while Mason got 9 shots (hitting 8) and Miles got 4. They should have got a combined 20-25. That has to change this year. Quit having Mason and Ryan 20-25 ft from the basket setting screens and get them in the paint where they can use their height and length to Duke's advantage. Maybe set screens in the paint for them.

Defensively, it we continue to play agressive half court man-to-man defense and have Mason and Ryan straying from the paint, we'll struggle against teams with quick guards. Mason and Ryan should never be more than 7 ft from the basket.

And I would love to see a front line of Mason, Ryan and Alex. We'd be a strong rebounding team and would block and alter a lot of shots in the paint. Could Mason, Ryan and Alex play man to man defesne against a smaller, quicker front line. Probably not. But there are ways to play man to man defense without playing to another teams strengths.

I think a top 3 finish in the ACC and hopefully get to a Sweet 16 and not get embarrasssed in Round 1 or 2 would be a decent year.

With all due respect, it's not exactly the same team. Ryan Kelly did not play in the post season and his loss was not negligible.

And Duke adds more than just Sulaimon. Duke also adds Amile Jefferson, Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee. The addition of Murphy and Jeffersongives K bigger options on the perimeter and makes this roster much more than just a Rivers for Sulaimon trade.

Kedsy
10-09-2012, 04:21 PM
You guys are way more postitive than I thought anyone would be. Afterall, this is the same squad that got kicked out of ACC Tourney in the 2nd round by Fla St after nearly losing to a bad Va Tech team in the first round. Then a small squad like Lehigh beats us in the tourney because they had 2 quick guards and we Curry and Thorton/Cook couldn't handle them. We lose Rivers and we gain Suliamon. We lose a lot offensively in that swithc but we gain defensively.

See, here's where you're wrong. It isn't close to the same squad as the one we trotted out in the ACCT & NCAAT. Of the six guys who played more than 11 minutes in the Lehigh game, three are gone and one (Tyler) could possibly be seeing a reduced role.

Top six minute-getters in the Lehigh game:

Austin
Mason
Tyler
Miles
Andre
Seth

Depth: Quinn, Josh, Michael G

Projected top six minute-getters this season:

Seth
Mason
Ryan
Alex
Quinn
Rasheed

Depth: Tyler, Amile, Marshall, Josh


Doesn't at all look like the same team to me.


If, as K has done for 9 out of the last 10 years, and plays a 3 guard lineup, we're going to once again have a smalll lineup out there and Curry and Thorton/Cook will have to guard someone.

Well, first of all, Kyle Singler played SF in 2011 and 2010, so already what 9 out of 10 are you talking about? Also, our SFs in 2009 (Gerald Henderson) and 2007/2008 (DeMarcus Nelson) were pretty normal sized for the college SF position. Other than last season, we haven't played a true three guard lineup since 2006.

Besides, unless Alex totally flops he'll be the starter and pick up the majority of SF minutes this season, so this concern of yours doesn't seem very apt.


Plus even though Mason and Miles had a distinct advatage over Lehigh's short, chubby inside players, we continued to shoot 3's all night while Mason got 9 shots (hitting 8) and Miles got 4.

I'm not sure what one game last year has to do with the upcoming season. We don't have nearly as many three-point shooters this year as we have in the recent past. Mason and Ryan may not get as many inside looks as you appear to want, but they'll get plenty.


And I would love to see a front line of Mason, Ryan and Alex.

Again, unless Alex flops this is the front line people are expecting to see. If a team has a small, quick SF who Alex has difficulty guarding, then we should be able to go small (with Rasheed) without missing a beat on either side of the ball.


I think a top 3 finish in the ACC and hopefully get to a Sweet 16 and not get embarrasssed in Round 1 or 2 would be a decent year.

You're talking about the future but you seem to be living in the past. Anything less than a top 3 ACC finish and a Sweet 16 would be a disappointment, but the probable results of the season should be much better.

Bluedog
10-09-2012, 05:11 PM
Afterall, this is the same squad that got kicked out of ACC Tourney in the 2nd round by Fla St after nearly losing to a bad Va Tech team in the first round. Then a small squad like Lehigh beats us.

Last year's team wasn't as terrible as you make them seem...there were some low points, but also some highs. Last year's squad defeated the Big Ten regular season and tournament champs who earned a #1 seed in MSU, beat the National Runner-up in a championship game in Hawaii in Kansas, shocked its rival on a will-not-be-forgotten buzzer beater after coming back from 10 down with 2 min to play, had the largest second half comeback in Coach K history against NC State, and finished second in the conference in the regular season. Yes, they lost a close game ("kicked out of the ACC Tourney" seems a bit hyperbolic) by 3 in the semifinals to eventual champs FSU after having defeated them in Tallahassee the month before. It was a rough adjustment with Kelly out and certainly other circumstances led to the loss. And, then, of course, everybody played poorly against Lehigh. But one game doesn't make a season. Last year's squad was not an embarrassment at all - they had some quality wins and good moments throughout the season. Defense let them down at crunchtime and we couldn't make the adjustment in our personnel for a few games, which led to some head-scratching moments. This year's team has the potential to also have memorable moments like last season, but also finish the job with defense and hopefully play well in crunch time and at the end of the season.

Wander
10-09-2012, 05:25 PM
I'm a little split. On one hand, we weren't nearly as good as our record/seeding indicated last year, and we lost our best player from that team. On the other side, Duke seems to get unusually great seasons out of our seniors, was down a key player for some of our collapse last year (but, it should be noted, not all of it), and Murphy and Sulaimon sound like exactly the type of players to fit what we need. I guess if I was forced to make a definite prediction I'd split the difference and say Sweet 16 or Elite 8.

Indoor66
10-09-2012, 05:32 PM
I expect us to go 40-0, go undefeated in the ACC, overall #1 seed in the tourney and win a National Championship with Mason getting consensus NPOY and Ryan Kelly getting Final Four MOP after averaging 30 ppg in beating Kentucky in the semifinal and being the difference in the title game when we beat UNC by 57. ;)


But seriously...

What is not serious about your first paragraph? Seems about accurate to me - and probably to Ozzie as well.

hurleyfor3
10-09-2012, 05:35 PM
I want what Dave wants except with unc getting Lehighed in the round of 64.

noworries
10-09-2012, 06:02 PM
If anyone is "friends" with SportsCenter on Facebook, check out the recent photo of Lebron, Phil Jackson and MJ...why is Cameron in the background? Or is my mind playing serious tricks?

Bluedog
10-09-2012, 06:04 PM
If anyone is "friends" with SportsCenter on Facebook, check out the recent photo of Lebron, Phil Jackson and MJ...why is Cameron in the background? Or is my mind playing serious tricks?

ha, pretty funny. Nice find!
2856

I guess it's what they had in the stock photo pile or something.

hurleyfor3
10-09-2012, 06:09 PM
If anyone is "friends" with SportsCenter on Facebook, check out the recent photo of Lebron, Phil Jackson and MJ...why is Cameron in the background? Or is my mind playing serious tricks?

Not only is it Cameron, there's tape on the court for volleyball or some other sport.

Mike Corey
10-09-2012, 06:23 PM
I have no idea what our staff has in store, but I love the potential of this group.

Nolan took Quinn under his wing this summer, supposedly. Cook will have improved. How much? That'll be key, as ever.

Our team defense is bound to improve, as well. K has emphasized our length and athleticism--presumably that's a nod to better on-ball defending and denial defense, as well.

We have a first-round draft pick at center. Let's take advantage of him, and all the length/athleticism that will be around him.

I think the identity of our offense will be clearer from the get-go than it was last season. And the potential for a trio of reliable scorers, with another trio of consistent producers, is present, IMO.

And lastly, we have three seniors (not counting Dawkins). As Kedsy pointed out in the spring, that has been a very good omen under Coach K:

Our teams with at least three seniors: '86, '89, '90, '94, '06, '10.

jimsumner
10-09-2012, 06:48 PM
I have no idea what our staff has in store, but I love the potential of this group.

Nolan took Quinn under his wing this summer, supposedly. Cook will have improved. How much? That'll be key, as ever.

Our team defense is bound to improve, as well. K has emphasized our length and athleticism--presumably that's a nod to better on-ball defending and denial defense, as well.

We have a first-round draft pick at center. Let's take advantage of him, and all the length/athleticism that will be around him.

I think the identity of our offense will be clearer from the get-go than it was last season. And the potential for a trio of reliable scorers, with another trio of consistent producers, is present, IMO.

And lastly, we have three seniors (not counting Dawkins). As Kedsy pointed out in the spring, that has been a very good omen under Coach K:

Our teams with at least three seniors: '86, '89, '90, '94, '06, '10.

In order to fend off the woof gods, let me note that the 1995 team also had three seniors.
As did 1983. So, consider yourself placated.

For the record, in the K era, Duke also had at least three recruited seniors in 1981, 1985, 1997, 1998, and 2003.

wk2109
10-09-2012, 06:49 PM
There are two assumptions that keep popping up and I'm wondering what people on this board think about the validity of these assumptions:

#1: Quinn is likely to win the starting point guard spot.
#2: Amile is going to spend time on the perimeter (i.e. play the 3).

Personally, I think #1 is much more likely than #2. I haven't seen Amile play much besides in highlight videos, but I get the feeling that any minutes he gets will be at the 4. It doesn't seem like he has the offensive game of a SF, so even if he does have the lateral quickness to guard SFs, would K put a non-perimeter-oriented offensive player at the 3? I've seen the suggestion on this board that perhaps he can play the 4 on offense and the 3 on defense while Ryan does the opposite. I suppose that's a possibility.

I've read some previews suggesting that Josh has a chance to win the starting SF spot. I don't think the people writing this have any idea what they're talking about. I'm hoping that by now, his junior year, the game has slowed down for Josh and that he can offer solid minutes backing up Ryan, but I don't think there's anything about his game that makes him a viable option at the 3.

I'm personally most curious about Alex -- I'm wondering what exactly the coaching staff expects his role to be. Do they look at him strictly as a SF and are they going to develop him as a perimeter player? Are they going to build him in that 3/4 hybrid mode? Looking at this year's 6 scholarship players over 6'4", Alex seems the most likely to spend any time on the perimeter. It makes sense to me that Alex would spend more time at the 3 than at the 4 just based on the balance of players on this year's roster.

I like the look of this roster breakdown:

1: Quinn, Tyler (maybe a tiny bit of Seth/Rasheed)
2-3: Seth, Rasheed, Alex
4-5: Mason, Ryan, Josh, Amile, Marshall (maybe a bit of Alex)

As for my expectations (specific and general):

-I think it's pretty likely that Duke will beat Kentucky -- I honestly don't expect Kentucky to be very good this year. Their freshman class doesn't look as impressive as those of the past couple of years and, unlike the past couple of years, they have no one with notable experience returning like Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, Patrick Patterson, or even Josh Harrellson. Duke's 3-man senior class will have a bigger impact than most are expecting, particularly early in the season.
-UNC won't be an NCAA top-4 seed -- I think UNC's roster is filled with a lot of mediocrity. In particular, they have a glut of decent wings. In my opinion, James McAdoo is heavily overrated but is at the same time UNC's only hope to have an excellent season.
-If Duke can stay relatively healthy, a Final Four is certainly possible -- The past two seasons have been severely impacted by injuries to key players (perhaps making up for the relatively good health we enjoyed in 2010). If K can establish a team identity early on and this team can defend/rebound, I can't see Duke getting lower than a 2 seed.

Mike Corey
10-09-2012, 06:51 PM
"If you have to be placated, be placated by Jim Sumner." - Unknown

Thanks for the sobering facts. Clearly, all these ads in Ohio have gotten the better of me.

Kedsy
10-09-2012, 07:01 PM
In order to fend off the woof gods, let me note that the 1995 team also had three seniors.
As did 1983. So, consider yourself placated.

For the record, in the K era, Duke also had at least three recruited seniors in 1981, 1985, 1997, 1998, and 2003.

My original research looked at seasons under K in which we had three seniors playing major roles (which I defined as 15 or more mpg). I was trying to see the effect of having seniors on the floor (as opposed to on the bench, which I suppose is also valuable but is not what I was measuring). That rules out 1981, 1983, 1985, 1997, 1998, and 2003 (in those seasons the third senior played fewer than 15 mpg). While it's true the 1995 team met my minutes criterion, it wasn't coached by K.

So, the Duke teams coached by K that had three seniors playing 15+ mpg were: '86, '89, '90, '94, '06, '10. I expect 2013 to meet the criteria as well, so we'll just have to see what happens.

Mike Corey
10-09-2012, 07:07 PM
Thanks for clarifying, and I apologize for misrepresenting your excellent research.

Placated twice in an hour. That's a record for me. ;)

jimsumner
10-09-2012, 07:18 PM
Thanks for the clarification.

FWIW, K did coach 14 of 31 games in 1994-95. The ones that Duke won. :)

I would probably have a lower threshold than 15 mpg. I certainly would count Jim Suddath in 1981 and Carmen Wallace in 1997 as contributors.

Trivia question. Name the only season in which Duke had three seniors make All-ACC.

mgtr
10-09-2012, 07:45 PM
My observation over the years is that Duke starts the season strong -- excellent preparation, ahead of other teams. During the year other teams catch up, and some pass us. Perhaps this year we will start a little slower and build from there. OK, wishful thinking, I know. In a month, we will start to find out.

Duvall
10-09-2012, 07:49 PM
My observation over the years is that Duke starts the season strong -- excellent preparation, ahead of other teams. During the year other teams catch up, and some pass us.

To be fair, some teams catch up, and other teams fall apart. (Looking at you, Rick Barnes.) We just play less attention to those.

Indoor66
10-09-2012, 07:57 PM
Thanks for the clarification.

FWIW, K did coach 14 of 31 games in 1994-95. The ones that Duke won. :)

I would probably have a lower threshold than 15 mpg. I certainly would count Jim Suddath in 1981 and Carmen Wallace in 1997 as contributors.

Trivia question. Name the only season in which Duke had three seniors make All-ACC.

1978? - Spanarkle, Giminski & Banks

jimsumner
10-09-2012, 08:04 PM
1978? - Spanarkle, Giminski & Banks

None of those guys were seniors in 1978. In fact, Duke did not have a single recruited senior on that team.

-jk
10-09-2012, 08:06 PM
1978? - Spanarkle, Giminski & Banks

Um - i think that would be a junior, a soph, and a frosh.

-jk

OldPhiKap
10-09-2012, 08:21 PM
I want what Dave wants except with unc getting Lehighed in the round of 64.

Does the NIT have 64 teams?

Newton_14
10-09-2012, 08:37 PM
Thanks for the clarification.

FWIW, K did coach 14 of 31 games in 1994-95. The ones that Duke won. :)

I would probably have a lower threshold than 15 mpg. I certainly would count Jim Suddath in 1981 and Carmen Wallace in 1997 as contributors.

Trivia question. Name the only season in which Duke had three seniors make All-ACC.

Grant Hill, Tony Lang, Marty Clark? 1994?

jimsumner
10-09-2012, 08:39 PM
Grant Hill, Tony Lang, Marty Clark? 1994?

Nah. Hill was first team All-ACC and ACC POY. Lang was third-team All-ACC. But Clark was a reserve who averaged a modest 8.1 ppg.

Dukehky
10-09-2012, 08:43 PM
Thanks for the clarification.

FWIW, K did coach 14 of 31 games in 1994-95. The ones that Duke won. :)

I would probably have a lower threshold than 15 mpg. I certainly would count Jim Suddath in 1981 and Carmen Wallace in 1997 as contributors.

Trivia question. Name the only season in which Duke had three seniors make All-ACC.

Langdon, McLeod, Wojo in '98. Not sure if Langdon counts there, he was a senior that year but had his redshirt senior year in 99

Dukehky
10-09-2012, 08:48 PM
Langdon, McLeod, Wojo in '98. Not sure if Langdon counts there, he was a senior that year but had his redshirt senior year in 99

Kudos to my mom for this, 1964, Mullins, Buckley, Harrison.

jimsumner
10-09-2012, 08:58 PM
Kudos to my mom for this, 1964, Mullins, Buckley, Harrison.

We have a winner. Jeff Mullins-1st team; Jay Buckley and Buzzy Harrison, 2nd team.

Kudos to your mom, indeed.

FWIW, Harrison may seem like a bit of a head-scratcher. Only 8.7 ppg and he wasn't the playmaker--Denny Ferguson was--so that's not it. But there were only eight ACC teams in 1964 and four of them had overall losing records, a fifth was .500 and a sixth was 13-12. So, it made sense to reward a Duke team that went 13-1 in the conference.

FWIW2, I can't consider Langdon a senior in 1998, when he was a senior in 1999.

Kedsy
10-09-2012, 10:03 PM
I would probably have a lower threshold than 15 mpg. I certainly would count Jim Suddath in 1981 and Carmen Wallace in 1997 as contributors.

Actually, Suddath in 1981 is exactly the kind of guy I was trying to not count. He had 6 DNPs, which if you count as zero minutes means he averaged just over 7 mpg. He never played more than 12 minutes in a game until the post-season. Although, I grant you that he was a big-minute starter in our four post-season games that season (in large part due to Gene Banks's injury). And neither here nor there, but I used to love watching him shoot backwards free throws in warm-ups.

Carmen Wallace might be a closer case, but he only played double-figure minutes in two of our final 11 games, and averaged 11.0 mpg (if you count his 3 DNPs as zero minutes). So he wasn't really on the floor so much in the big games down the stretch.

Anyway, you have to put the threshold somewhere and for good or ill I chose 15 mpg. If anybody cares, it wouldn't be that hard to see what it looks like with a lower threshold.

OZZIE4DUKE
10-09-2012, 10:23 PM
I expect us to go 40-0, go undefeated in the ACC, overall #1 seed in the tourney and win a National Championship


I'll take 40-0 and let the details work themselves out...


Reading the first paragraph, I was wondering if OZZIE had moved to DC and hijacked your laptop.

Sorry to be late to the party, but of course ...
40 - 0, All the banners hanging in Cameron next April! :cool:http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gifhttp://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

licc85
10-09-2012, 10:58 PM
I see quite a bit of speculation that our top 6 guys in the rotation will be Seth, Mason, Ryan, Quinn, Alex, and Rasheed. That's all well and good, especially on offense, where Ryan is a real matchup problem for most teams, and I believe Alex will fit that profile as well, but wow, that's a really weak top 6 on defense. At this point, I think we know what Ryan and Seth are as defenders. While Ryan causes many problems for opponents on offense . . . he causes almost no problems for them on defense. His lateral agility will never be close to elite, and the same goes for Seth. Seth is an amazing shooter and will probably lead the team in scoring, but he can't guard anyone.

If Ryan and Seth are both in the game with Mason, the other two players need to be defensive minded players. I think a huge part of this season's success depends on Quinn Cook's defense. Last year, he was terrible. Conceding the fact that he was hurt, but he was terrible. Duke had it worst defensive season, I believe, ever under Coach K. If Quinn hasn't improved significantly on D, I don't see how we can play him, Ryan, and Seth in the same lineup and not expect to get torched on D. I honestly think Rasheed may be the starter by the end of the year at PG and share ball handling duties with Seth.

Call me crazy, but I think the best starting lineup by mid-season is : Mason, Ryan, Alex, Seth, Rasheed. Quinn is a great point guard, but he's tiny, and having 2 guys under 6'1" with sub-par athleticism on the perimeter is just a recipe for disaster for any defense. Quinn is just going to have to get his minutes while Seth or Ryan is on the bench.

sagegrouse
10-09-2012, 11:55 PM
Call me crazy, but I think the best starting lineup by mid-season is : Mason, Ryan, Alex, Seth, Rasheed. Quinn is a great point guard, but he's tiny, and having 2 guys under 6'1" with sub-par athleticism on the perimeter is just a recipe for disaster for any defense. Quinn is just going to have to get his minutes while Seth or Ryan is on the bench.

I see in Quinn an awful lot of Kyrie Irving. It didn't show up much last year because he was hurt and a freshman. But I hope he can be a point guard that just takes over a game. That makes Duke basketball a lot of fun.

But to make you feel better, if guys can play strong D, especially if they are long and lean, they will get lots of minutes at Duke.

sagegrouse

gumbomoop
10-10-2012, 12:47 AM
I haven't seen Amile play much besides in highlight videos, but I get the feeling that any minutes he gets will be at the 4. It doesn't seem like he has the offensive game of a SF, so even if he does have the lateral quickness to guard SFs, would K put a non-perimeter-oriented offensive player at the 3?

I comment here only on the wing/SF/3 spot for 2012-13.

Based on the staff's enthusiasm re Murphy's game and potential a year ago [preseason 2011-12], the persuasive commentary re Murphy of several EK posters in random threads, and my own eye test in a [very] few looks at Murphy [Elite 24 "game" and last preseason], I, like others, firmly assume Murphy will start at SF, and garner majority minutes there all season long. Say 20-25 mpg there, probably 25.

Backup? Shared by Jefferson and Sulaimon, situation-dependent. Neither is a perfect backup; nor, for that matter, is Murphy perfect, just yet. Sulaimon, says my and others' eye test, is quite good defensively, but he's probably about 6'3", and when he's at the 3, we're back to the "dreaded" 3-guard lineup. So, it's possible we'd be 3-guarding maybe 15 mpg, though that's unlikely.

Unlikely because Jefferson is a good candidate to get at least a few minutes at the 3. Not because he "is" a 3 - he's a 4 in the right-now-body of a "3 1/2" - but because Duke does not have several "classic" [6'6"-6'7"] SF's on this season's roster. I guess, indeed, Duke has none such classic SFs.

Rather, after last season's non-classic SFs in the persons of wing/2s Rivers and Dawkins [and even combo guy Thornton], this season K has 3 new non-classic SFs: Murphy, who is a little taller than classic and, who knows, maybe not as "fluid" as, oh, say, Grant Hill; Jefferson, taller still, weird game on O, definitely not perimeter-smooth, an experiment as a 3-D; and Sulaimon, shorter, D-rep, guilt-by-association of dreaded 3-guard-didn't-pan-out-last-season.

Although I lean to the view that Cook's vast improvement is the key to our season, the 3-spot will surely involve several interesting new experiments [i.e., players]. Murphy is closest to a non-experiment, and may be just right at the SF, 25 mpg worth. [And depending on recruiting, Murphy might wind up playing mostly 4 in 2013-14......] Jefferson and Sulaimon are the most logical backups, because there are no logical backups. They're at least more logical than Thornton, who is yet another very, very experimental 3-D.

licc85
10-10-2012, 02:10 AM
I see in Quinn an awful lot of Kyrie Irving. It didn't show up much last year because he was hurt and a freshman. But I hope he can be a point guard that just takes over a game. That makes Duke basketball a lot of fun.

But to make you feel better, if guys can play strong D, especially if they are long and lean, they will get lots of minutes at Duke.

sagegrouse

I see some Kyrie in Quinn too, but Kyrie, believe it or not is actually quite horrible defensively as well. He was rated among the worst starting PGs defensively in the NBA last season. I don't expect that to continue, as he will surely improve, being so young, but it's worth noting. Quinn is no doubt the best ball handler and passer on the team. It's not his offense I'm worried about. I just don't think having him with Seth on the floor at the same time is a wise choice. Opposing guards would have a field day, getting in the paint as they please, and drawing crazy amounts of fouls on Mason.

Indoor66
10-10-2012, 07:44 AM
None of those guys were seniors in 1978. In fact, Duke did not have a single recruited senior on that team.

Oops. I misread your challenge question. I read over the senior qualification.

kmspeaks
10-10-2012, 12:15 PM
I could care less about the regular season and barely more about the ACC Tournament except as those games affect NCAA seeding. I expect a National Championship, and anything else (30 win season, ACC championship, etc), mean nothing to me. NCAA title, or at least Final Four, or else I'll immediately launch into a March postmortem about how K's recruiting, his bench usage, his end of game slowdown, and the exhaustion of the starters doomed us.

If you're writing that in March make sure you don't forget the distraction of coaching Team USA, the lack of a tall big man coach and that Duke shot too many 3's.

ohiodukefan
10-10-2012, 01:12 PM
Ok, I'll give you the 2011 team did not have a 3 guard lineup as Singler and a combination of the Plumlees and Kelly started a majority of the games With Kyrie and Nolan and then Curry starting after Kyrie got hurt.

But the 2007 and 2008 teams all started 3 guard lineups, 4 if you count the 6'4" Gerald Henderson as a guard.
The 2007 and 2008 lineups were basically Paulus, Scheyer and Nelson, Henderson and McRoberts (2007)/Singler (2008). And Nelson was never the 6'4" he was listed as. In the NBA camp they measured him as 6' 1 3/8".

As Charles Barkley said after that terrible Friday night last March "Duke and Missouri are playing small ball with small lineups. You're the big boys, start playing like big boys".

Kenny Smith said "Everybody's now has got guards. Ohio U has guards. Norfolk State has guards, Lehigh has guards. It's the teams that play big that do well in the tourney"

NM Duke Fan
10-10-2012, 01:25 PM
I see quite a bit of speculation that our top 6 guys in the rotation will be Seth, Mason, Ryan, Quinn, Alex, and Rasheed. That's all well and good, especially on offense, where Ryan is a real matchup problem for most teams, and I believe Alex will fit that profile as well, but wow, that's a really weak top 6 on defense. At this point, I think we know what Ryan and Seth are as defenders. While Ryan causes many problems for opponents on offense . . . he causes almost no problems for them on defense. His lateral agility will never be close to elite, and the same goes for Seth. Seth is an amazing shooter and will probably lead the team in scoring, but he can't guard anyone.

If Ryan and Seth are both in the game with Mason, the other two players need to be defensive minded players. I think a huge part of this season's success depends on Quinn Cook's defense. Last year, he was terrible. Conceding the fact that he was hurt, but he was terrible. Duke had it worst defensive season, I believe, ever under Coach K. If Quinn hasn't improved significantly on D, I don't see how we can play him, Ryan, and Seth in the same lineup and not expect to get torched on D. I honestly think Rasheed may be the starter by the end of the year at PG and share ball handling duties with Seth.

Call me crazy, but I think the best starting lineup by mid-season is : Mason, Ryan, Alex, Seth, Rasheed. Quinn is a great point guard, but he's tiny, and having 2 guys under 6'1" with sub-par athleticism on the perimeter is just a recipe for disaster for any defense. Quinn is just going to have to get his minutes while Seth or Ryan is on the bench.

One of the best posts of the thread imo. D is the key, but I have a bit different point of view, which from past posts I know some of you very much disagree with, and that is fine. I am hopeful and even optimistic that Quinn's work with Nolan over the summer has elevated his overall game, especially his D. I remember quotes where he knew he had to get much better at that aspect of the game, and I suspect he has been working very hard. But with Seth, I suspect he has hit his plateau on D, he is limited by low lateral quickness, and below average strength. At least he does have quicker hands than feet.

In watching various videos of Rasheed, I will be surprised if he doesn't capture an increasing amount of time in the guard rotation as the season progresses. By the end of the year, he might be playing the same number of minutes as Seth, or maybe even more in some games. He is bigger, stronger, has better lateral quickness, and can be an aggressive driver and finisher. From my point of view, a line-up of Quin and Rasheed will likely be at times the best option available at the guard positions.

Kedsy
10-10-2012, 01:35 PM
Ok, I'll give you the 2011 team did not have a 3 guard lineup as Singler and a combination of the Plumlees and Kelly started a majority of the games With Kyrie and Nolan and then Curry starting after Kyrie got hurt.

But the 2007 and 2008 teams all started 3 guard lineups, 4 if you count the 6'4" Gerald Henderson as a guard.
The 2007 and 2008 lineups were basically Paulus, Scheyer and Nelson, Henderson and McRoberts (2007)/Singler (2008). And Nelson was never the 6'4" he was listed as. In the NBA camp they measured him as 6' 1 3/8".

This really isn't true. In 2007, McRoberts started 32 of 33 games. Lance Thomas/Dave McClure/Brain Zoubek combined for 31 starts in 33 games. Nelson started 31 games at SF, and whatever his effective height (he had very long arms) he played much more like a forward than a guard. In 2008, the starters were Paulus, Henderson, Nelson, Thomas, and Singler, and both Nelson and Henderson played like small forwards (or big wings, however you want to phrase it).

Kedsy
10-10-2012, 01:37 PM
In watching various videos of Rasheed, I will be surprised if he doesn't capture an increasing amount of time in the guard rotation as the season progresses. By the end of the year, he might be playing the same number of minutes as Seth, or maybe even more in some games. He is bigger, stronger, has better lateral quickness, and can be an aggressive driver and finisher. From my point of view, a line-up of Quin and Rasheed will likely be at times the best option available at the guard positions.

If you read any quotes from Coach K or the other coaches, you wouldn't be so confident about this. The coaches believe Seth is our best perimeter player and will be our leading scorer.

jimsumner
10-10-2012, 01:49 PM
Ok, I'll give you the 2011 team did not have a 3 guard lineup as Singler and a combination of the Plumlees and Kelly started a majority of the games With Kyrie and Nolan and then Curry starting after Kyrie got hurt.

But the 2007 and 2008 teams all started 3 guard lineups, 4 if you count the 6'4" Gerald Henderson as a guard.
The 2007 and 2008 lineups were basically Paulus, Scheyer and Nelson, Henderson and McRoberts (2007)/Singler (2008). And Nelson was never the 6'4" he was listed as. In the NBA camp they measured him as 6' 1 3/8".

As Charles Barkley said after that terrible Friday night last March "Duke and Missouri are playing small ball with small lineups. You're the big boys, start playing like big boys".

Kenny Smith said "Everybody's now has got guards. Ohio U has guards. Norfolk State has guards, Lehigh has guards. It's the teams that play big that do well in the tourney"

Duke certainly played small a lot in 2007 and 2008. But not as much as you recall.

In 2007 McRoberts, Scheyer, Nelson and Paulus all started between 29 and 31 games. But Henderson started 10, while Lance Thomas started 18 and David McCure started 11. Zoubek started twice. McRoberts, Thomas, McClure and Zoubek combined for 63 starts in 33 games. So, clearly Duke did not start four guards that season with any regularity.

McClure played 98 more minutes than Henderson that season and almost all of that was inside.

Scheyer came off the bench in 2008, as a sixth man. Paulus, Nelson and Henderson got the bulk of the starts. Some combination of Singler, Thomas, Zoubek, King and McClure played most of the game at the 4/5. That quintet averaged over 71 mpg and that factors in the games Zoubek missed with injuries.

Henderson averaged about 26 mpg that season. And I would not consider him a guard, not in 2008. Henderson is 6-4 but a strong 6-4, with an exceptional vertical. Duke used Henderson as a slashing wing. He had almost as many dunks as assists (45 to 56) that year and was never more than the third ball-handler.

Duke was under-sized for sure, as suggested by using the 6-6 McClure as a post. Injuries to Zoubek and the unexpected transfers of Eric Boateng and Jamal Boykin forced K's hand during that period. But neither Henderson nor Nelson played all that much at the 4, except in end-of-half and end-of-game situations.

NM Duke Fan
10-10-2012, 01:50 PM
Fairly presumptuous statement, Kedsy. I have read many quotes by the coaches in articles, having kept up with the program for decades now. I have also read quotes in the past about players and what role they are expected to play. Some of those projections pan out, others do not. Once again, D is a huge key, and K has also stated that a renewed emphasis on D is a key point of the coming year. I will be shocked if Seth has made major gains in that area of his game. Yes, he brings some nice 3 point shooting and it is important, and I am cheering for him as much as anybody. I have already stated my case for Rasheed getting increasing minutes. BTW, I personally hope that Mason is the leading scorer, if Seth and others will get him the ball in a more consistent manner. Last year's guards often did a really poor job of feeding the post, and kept jacking up threes.

Kedsy
10-10-2012, 02:17 PM
Fairly presumptuous statement, Kedsy. I have read many quotes by the coaches in articles, having kept up with the program for decades now. I have also read quotes in the past about players and what role they are expected to play. Some of those projections pan out, others do not. Once again, D is a huge key, and K has also stated that a renewed emphasis on D is a key point of the coming year. I will be shocked if Seth has made major gains in that area of his game. Yes, he brings some nice 3 point shooting and it is important, and I am cheering for him as much as anybody. I have already stated my case for Rasheed getting increasing minutes. BTW, I personally hope that Mason is the leading scorer, if Seth and others will get him the ball in a more consistent manner. Last year's guards often did a really poor job of feeding the post, and kept jacking up threes.

Other than Ryan, Seth may be our only three-point shooter, and that alone will keep him in the lineup. But if you've read the quotes, K consistently has said he thinks Seth will be a star and our leading scorer and that our three seniors are our three best players. I don't claim to be an expert in K-speak, but the statements that don't "pan out" seem to tend toward statements like "Seth is our point guard" like last year, and not statements like "Seth is our best perimeter player" like this year.

I personally agree with you that Rasheed will get plenty of playing time, probably in the 25 mpg range, but I think those minutes will be spread among three positions, and not primarily at Seth's expense.

As for scoring, I expect Seth to be our leading scorer, but for Mason and Ryan to score plenty, kind of like 2010 when almost 70% of our scoring came from three players. Probably not quite so skewed this season, maybe only 60%.

jimsumner
10-10-2012, 02:25 PM
Other than Ryan, Seth may be our only three-point shooter, and that alone will keep him in the lineup. But if you've read the quotes, K consistently has said he thinks Seth will be a star and our leading scorer and that our three seniors are our three best players. I don't claim to be an expert in K-speak, but the statements that don't "pan out" seem to tend toward statements like "Seth is our point guard" like last year, and not statements like "Seth is our best perimeter player" like this year.

I personally agree with you that Rasheed will get plenty of playing time, probably in the 25 mpg range, but I think those minutes will be spread among three positions, and not primarily at Seth's expense.

As for scoring, I expect Seth to be our leading scorer, but for Mason and Ryan to score plenty, kind of like 2010 when almost 70% of our scoring came from three players. Probably not quite so skewed this season, maybe only 60%.

Seth Curry is not an uber-athlete and he sometimes gets beat by guys who are. But he has a high-basketball IQ, a good sense of anticipation and very quick hands, which enables him to get lots of steals.

He's not Billy King on the defensive side of the ball. But, in the aggregate I do not think him a liability on defense, especially when he's not being asked to guard either an opposing point or an opposing wing forward.

FWIW, I very much agree with NM fan about feeding the post; indeed, feeding anybody. I expect a healthy Cook to be a significant upgrade in that area.

NSDukeFan
10-10-2012, 02:42 PM
If you read any quotes from Coach K or the other coaches, you wouldn't be so confident about this. The coaches believe Seth is our best perimeter player and will be our leading scorer.

I have always thought that Nolan and Kyle were fantastic players and great defenders. I did not fully realize how incredible they must have been until this thread. Duke had the 8th rated defense in the country in their senior year, 2011. Seth started half the games that year and averaged 25 minutes per game, along with Mason and Ryan. I have read a few posts about how terrible a defender Seth is (aside/I tend not to ever describe any of the players I cheer for as terrible, seeing how they seem to be good kids, give a great effort, are much better than I could have ever dreamed of in whatever limited prime I had, and always seem to win over 20 games every year against a top ranked schedule/aside), so Kyle and Nolan must have been incredible to have guarded their own men and covered for this so-called terrible defensive player all year.

Or, maybe the team didn't play as well defensively as a team last year, and nobody looked great defensively as a result.

I have a theory that if team defense is understood a bit better this year, (three seniors will hopefully communicate very well) players improve their positioning and defensive play a bit, and there is a bit more size at one of the wing positions for half the game, the defense will look better this year. The players who played a lot of minutes when the team had the 8th ranked defense in the country might show that they are pretty decent defensive players and will help the new players who all seem to have potential to be solid defensively as well.

I am looking forward to the team being able to win games when they are not shooting well, though I expect the team to continue its very strong offensive play from the past few years.

Kedsy
10-10-2012, 02:43 PM
But, in the aggregate I do think him a liability on defense, especially when he's not being asked to guard either an opposing point or an opposing wing forward.

Do you mean you "do think him a liability on defense" or you do not think him a liability on defense? I assume the latter, but if I'm wrong I'd like to know.

Cameron
10-10-2012, 03:06 PM
Other than Ryan, Seth may be our only three-point shooter

Disagree with this. I think Rasheed will be a very effective three-point shooter, and immediately serve to help soften the blow of losing our most potent gunner from a season ago. Andre Dawkins he may not be, but perimeter shooting was one of Rasheed's many strengths as a scorer at the high school level, and, for what it's worth, he did win the Gatorade three-point shootout at the McDonald's game in April. If the long line of past Duke winners of that competition are any indication of future deep range success -- Chris Collins, Trajan Langdon, Nate James, Shane Battier, J.J. Redick and Ryan Kelly -- then Rasheed is in great company.

Also, Alex Murphy's versatility as a pure inside-out swingman, with the ability to put it on the floor and create or hit from deep if space is given to him, will really work to stretch defenses. Maybe not as much this year, but by his sophomore or junior seasons, I think the Singler comparisons will gain major traction.

jimsumner
10-10-2012, 03:14 PM
Do you mean you "do think him a liability on defense" or you do not think him a liability on defense? I assume the latter, but if I'm wrong I'd like to know.

Typo. I do NOT think he's a defensive liability.

Thanks.

Kedsy
10-10-2012, 03:20 PM
Disagree with this. I think Rasheed will be a very effective three-point shooter, and immediately serve to help soften the blow of losing our most potent gunner from a season ago.

I hope you're right. Based on admittedly limited viewing, his shooting motion seems a lot less textbook than either Andre's or Seth's (or JJ's or Trajan's, etc.). We'll just have to wait and see whether he can still make that shot when the game speeds up (as it must during the transition from high school to college).

I'm very excited about Rasheed and his defensive presence. I'm not expecting him to be much of a shooter or a scorer his freshman year (although I do expect his offense to pick up his sophomore and later seasons). I'd be thrilled to be pleasantly surprised by Rasheed's offense this season, but as I said I'm not expecting it.

-jk
10-10-2012, 03:29 PM
Typo. I do NOT think he's a defensive liability.

Thanks.

Fixed in the original.

My wife works on Capitol Hill. Every once in a while someone leaves out a "not" in legislative drafting. It can be so embarrassing: "The Department of X shall provide..." v "The Department of X shall not provide..." Yikes.

-jk

bob blue devil
10-10-2012, 03:49 PM
i, like a number others here, am a bit concerned about a curry/cook perimeter from a defensive perspective (although I'll leave the hyperbole to others). the happy outcome is that we see big improvements from cook, but i think it would be relatively rare for a player to go from where cook was last year to where he needs to be. many folks are pointing to recovery from injury as a key reason to expect an improvement - i don't have a ton of confidence in that line of thinking. is it confirmed he still hadn't fully recovered by the second half of the season and that he was hindered enough to make what we saw not representative of quinn's actual capabilities?

i'm not terribly concerned on offense - i expect big things from what is easily one of the best front courts in the country (and the trickle down benefits for our other shooters). defense is the key.

because of my curry/cook defensive concerns, i am intrigued by the possibility of a sulaimon/curry back court as a way to address a weakness. unfortunately, that would put a lot of pressure on rasheed and there is a good chance he doesn't have the ball handling/distribution skill set to shoulder that load (too bad we don't have the greatest coach ever to evaluate these things). or maybe curry could channel his inner scheyer and... ah nevermind, already tried that.

Cameron
10-10-2012, 04:44 PM
Hopefully, noobody minds, but I wanted to rehash a post of mine from the Parker thread in here, because, well, it makes more sense. And, it deals with a recurring theme around here re: perimeter defense...

Popular opinion among many seems to be that, while Alex Murphy is going to provide us much needed help defensively at the three slot against opposing athletic wings, we are once going to get eaten alive by athletic penetrators ala C.J. McCollum on the perimeter. With the departure of Austin Rivers' dynamic offensive game, however, comes the dynamic defensive game of Rasheed Sulaimon. He stands at 6'4 and has elite quickness and the versatility to hold his own against any position in the backcourt defensively. He is just the type of player we lacked a season ago. It will just be a matter of finding a lineup that will allow for Rasheed to earn considerable time on the floor, as it would appear that he will be chiefly competing with Curry for burn, at least in terms of how the early lineup appears on paper.

I am confident that Coach K will devise a lineup that work to utilize our biggest assets as well as possible, and the arrival of Rasheed not only as a potent scorer on the wing, but more importantly as our best defensive guard since Nolan, is one of them. He will need to be on the court. Period. Quinn, Seth and Tyler, who is certainly no slouch defensively and probably our most tenacious on-ball defender a year ago, are too small and not versatile enough to stop elite guards from making their way to the basket. In an effort to combat this, any chance that Rasheed plays signicant time at the point? I heard rumblings of this in the spring, but not much since. He's a solid ball handler, crafty passer and excellent at creating his shot on the perimeter. Could it work?

jimsumner
10-10-2012, 08:14 PM
i, like a number others here, am a bit concerned about a curry/cook perimeter from a defensive perspective (although I'll leave the hyperbole to others). the happy outcome is that we see big improvements from cook, but i think it would be relatively rare for a player to go from where cook was last year to where he needs to be. many folks are pointing to recovery from injury as a key reason to expect an improvement - i don't have a ton of confidence in that line of thinking. is it confirmed he still hadn't fully recovered by the second half of the season and that he was hindered enough to make what we saw not representative of quinn's actual capabilities?

i'm not terribly concerned on offense - i expect big things from what is easily one of the best front courts in the country (and the trickle down benefits for our other shooters). defense is the key.

because of my curry/cook defensive concerns, i am intrigued by the possibility of a sulaimon/curry back court as a way to address a weakness. unfortunately, that would put a lot of pressure on rasheed and there is a good chance he doesn't have the ball handling/distribution skill set to shoulder that load (too bad we don't have the greatest coach ever to evaluate these things). or maybe curry could channel his inner scheyer and... ah nevermind, already tried that.

I do not believe Cook ever really trusted his knee last season. He seemed hesitant and tentative.

I'm not a big fan of over-hyping summer-league play. But by all appearances, Cook did trust his knee this past summer.

Billy Dat
10-10-2012, 09:04 PM
BTW, I personally hope that Mason is the leading scorer, if Seth and others will get him the ball in a more consistent manner. Last year's guards often did a really poor job of feeding the post, and kept jacking up threes.

I loved last year when the offense ran through Ryan and Mason. What schemes do we think the coaches will devise to maximize their role in the offense? I like when they play a two man game between the wing and block as I think Ryan can effectively feed the post and Mason operates nicely off the block. If Cook can effectively use high screens, he and Mason could run the kind of two man game that Chris Paul ran/runs so well with Chandler/Griffin (why not set the bar high?) Mason is athletic enough to finish lobs anywhere within 3 feet of the rim. I will be very disappointed if we don't run a lot of offense through the big seniors.

licc85
10-10-2012, 09:11 PM
Hopefully, noobody minds, but I wanted to rehash a post of mine from the Parker thread in here, because, well, it makes more sense. And, it deals with a recurring theme around here re: perimeter defense...

Popular opinion among many seems to be that, while Alex Murphy is going to provide us much needed help defensively at the three slot against opposing athletic wings, we are once going to get eaten alive by athletic penetrators ala C.J. McCollum on the perimeter. With the departure of Austin Rivers' dynamic offensive game, however, comes the dynamic defensive game of Rasheed Sulaimon. He stands at 6'4 and has elite quickness and the versatility to hold his own against any position in the backcourt defensively. He is just the type of player we lacked a season ago. It will just be a matter of finding a lineup that will allow for Rasheed to earn considerable time on the floor, as it would appear that he will be chiefly competing with Curry for burn, at least in terms of how the early lineup appears on paper.

I am confident that Coach K will devise a lineup that work to utilize our biggest assets as well as possible, and the arrival of Rasheed not only as a potent scorer on the wing, but more importantly as our best defensive guard since Nolan, is one of them. He will need to be on the court. Period. Quinn, Seth and Tyler, who is certainly no slouch defensively and probably our most tenacious on-ball defender a year ago, are too small and not versatile enough to stop elite guards from making their way to the basket. In an effort to combat this, any chance that Rasheed plays signicant time at the point? I heard rumblings of this in the spring, but not much since. He's a solid ball handler, crafty passer and excellent at creating his shot on the perimeter. Could it work?

I think most would agree that the long term plan for Quinn Cook is for him to assume the starting point guard role, but right now, having him play heavy minutes with Seth at the 2 is just too risky. The ACC is brimming with big, strong, athletic guards this year. Just off the top of my head: Rodney Purvis, Lorenzo Brown, Durand Scott, Michael Snaer, Reggie Bullock, Leslie McDonald, PJ Hairston, these guys are all 6-4, 6-5, 6-6 and many of them weigh in at over 210 pounds. Seth Curry is 6-1 180, and Quinn Cook is 6-0 175 . . . it doesn't matter how much better these guys get with their positioning and quickness. Guys like Scott and Purvis will just bull their way into the paint and get our big guys into foul trouble.

Quinn is our best point guard, that is not disputable, but he is a defensive liability due to his size, no matter how much he has improved on D. He will be our starting point guard, but I think next year will be his year, after Seth graduates. Then Rasheed can slide over to the starting 2 guard spot and shore up the perimeter with his long arms and athleticism.

Troublemaker
10-11-2012, 04:54 AM
I think we'll win the ACC, the ACC regular season, and be a top-5 team and strong contender for the FF and NC. I think we'll beat Kentucky to open the season.

Cook will be the key. Reading the very smart people on this board has convinced me that Cook is going to step up big this season. I'm buying in with you guys in thinking that a healthy Cook will be a very good college point guard. I have full confidence in the frontcourt of Murphy, Kelly, and MP2. And I believe Amile will be the first big off the bench and a quality backup. This is our strongest frontcourt in years.

The question is at the 2-spot. I think Curry will be given every chance to win that role and become one of the league's best scorers. But in the end, he will be surpassed in the rotation by Thornton's combination of defense, intangibles, and shooting (the latter of which, while not at Seth's level, will be good enough so that his other advantages carry the day). Sheed will play about 10 min a game. It'll be a learning year for him. I've basically done a complete 180 from what I thought the backcourt would be earlier in the summer. I believe in Cook and Thornton as the predominant backcourt by the end of the season, and as the backcourt that finishes games, and as the backcourt that combines with a great frontcourt to be a top-5 team.

lotusland
10-11-2012, 08:47 AM
I loved last year when the offense ran through Ryan and Mason. What schemes do we think the coaches will devise to maximize their role in the offense? I like when they play a two man game between the wing and block as I think Ryan can effectively feed the post and Mason operates nicely off the block. If Cook can effectively use high screens, he and Mason could run the kind of two man game that Chris Paul ran/runs so well with Chandler/Griffin (why not set the bar high?) Mason is athletic enough to finish lobs anywhere within 3 feet of the rim. I will be very disappointed if we don't run a lot of offense through the big seniors.

Well said. It doesn't matter where the shots come from but the ball needs to go inside early and often. For his part Mason needs to be more decisive with the ball. Make a move, take the shot or find a cutter or spot up shooter. I think with repetition he will become more instinctive. That way we get good shots for Alex, Sheed TT, and Quinn who aren't pure shooters like Seth. Ryan definitely doesn't need to stay within 7 ft of the basket. If he can hit some shots he should be able to also get in the lane by using a shot fake. He'll need to take a little better care of the ball when the help comes. He has been prone to take one too many dribbles and get his pocket picked. I expect that one or two of the under-class-men will make an impact but we don't need any of them to carry us. I think all three seniors will be all ACC and lead us to another ACC Championship.

ohiodukefan
10-11-2012, 09:26 AM
I fear by mid season we'll be looking at a lineup and major minutes for Cook/Thorton, Curry, Suliamon, Kelly and Mason. Three guard lineups will get us in trouble in a Sweet 16 Tournament game against a team from a top conference that can exploit our small size in spots.

Cameron
10-11-2012, 09:43 AM
I think most would agree that the long term plan for Quinn Cook is for him to assume the starting point guard role, but right now, having him play heavy minutes with Seth at the 2 is just too risky. The ACC is brimming with big, strong, athletic guards this year. Just off the top of my head: Rodney Purvis, Lorenzo Brown, Durand Scott, Michael Snaer, Reggie Bullock, Leslie McDonald, PJ Hairston, these guys are all 6-4, 6-5, 6-6 and many of them weigh in at over 210 pounds. Seth Curry is 6-1 180, and Quinn Cook is 6-0 175 . . . it doesn't matter how much better these guys get with their positioning and quickness. Guys like Scott and Purvis will just bull their way into the paint and get our big guys into foul trouble.

Quinn is our best point guard, that is not disputable, but he is a defensive liability due to his size, no matter how much he has improved on D. He will be our starting point guard, but I think next year will be his year, after Seth graduates. Then Rasheed can slide over to the starting 2 guard spot and shore up the perimeter with his long arms and athleticism.

Concur on pretty much all counts. I might argue that we do not categorically know if Quinn is our best fit at point guard for this season, as Rasheed hasn't yet been given the opportunity to try and fill that role (and who knows if he ever will; that will, I imagine, primarily depend on how well Quinn performs and if he is completely injury-free heading into regular-season play). There is, however, no doubt about it that Quinn is the best traditional point guard that we have on the team. Tyler is great in spot duty and is a shot of Red Bull off the bench, but he's probably not the kind of lead guard that will lead us to an NCAA championship. And, as we saw with last year's expirement, Seth is not meant to run the point. He is a pure two guard. Plain and simple.

I truly hope that Rasheed is physically -- and mentally, for that matter -- ready to contribute a significant portion of minutes from the get-go, because, and this is the bottom line, we will absolutely need his length, speed and athleticism on the perimeter as a defensive stopper. Seth Curry may provide a nifty presence on defense occasionally thanks to his quick hands and heady court demeanor, but his undersized stature and underwhelming past performance on that end of the floor indicate that he will need to carry a shotgun in order to effectively stop dribble penetration. I haven't glossed over the handbook in awhile, but I assume gunfights are still illegal.

As others have hypothesized, I also think it is more likely that Rasheed earns his minutes as a combo backup for both Seth at the two and Alex at the three, than it is for him to assume a share of point guard duties. But I can't help but wonder if it could work. (With that said, I hope Quinn blows my mind and proves he's our next great point guard.)

gumbomoop
10-11-2012, 10:24 AM
I fear by mid season we'll be looking at a lineup and major minutes for Cook/Thorton, Curry, Suliamon, Kelly and Mason. Three guard lineups will get us in trouble in a Sweet 16 Tournament game against a team from a top conference that can exploit our small size in spots.

I think I disagree with your fear here, but it depends on what you mean by "major." If major means, say, 20-25 mpg, that just seems very unlikely to me, for it would mean that [1] Murphy isn't ready, and [2] Jefferson is utterly incapable of providing any minutes at the 3.

On [2], I grant the point that anyone would care to make that Jefferson isn't really a 3, even if he sort of looks like one. I agree that he isn't a 3, but is basically a 4. But I've seen his defense, and he seems capable of providing solid D against opposing players in the 6'5"-6'8" SF range for a few mpg. True, Jefferson is only a frosh, but then so is Sulaimon. IMO, while neither is likely to provide the proverbial lock-down-D, we'll be pleased enough with both these young guys on D.

But my real disagreement concerns point [1], for your fear surely implies that Murphy can't play major minutes at the 3. My recollection is that last preseason, prior to his injury, he was said by the staff to be likely to play, possibly, possibly, even start. I expect Murphy to start at SF and play 20-25 mpg, at that position. Although I assume K will, yes, play some 3-guard this season, I'd guess more like 10-15 mpg, which isn't major minutes. And actually, in some - ok, fair enough, limited - circumstances, I'd think a 3-guard lineup makes sense.

jimsumner
10-11-2012, 11:40 AM
I fear by mid season we'll be looking at a lineup and major minutes for Cook/Thorton, Curry, Suliamon, Kelly and Mason. Three guard lineups will get us in trouble in a Sweet 16 Tournament game against a team from a top conference that can exploit our small size in spots.

Duke will almost certainly play small lineups, with Sulaimon at the 3, in end-of-half and end-of-game situations. As do most teams with multiple quality-guards.

But the Duke coaches expect Murphy to be able to handle the bulk of the minutes at the 3 and do so with reasonable effectiveness. I would expect 25 mpg as a minimum.

BTW, as the board spell-checker emeritus, let me note the correct spelling of Sulaimon and Thornton. They're our guys and we should try to get this right on a Duke board.

Edouble
10-11-2012, 01:27 PM
BTW, as the board spell-checker emeritus, let me note the correct spelling of Sulaimon and Thornton. They're our guys and we should try to get this right on a Duke board.

Well said, sir.

To me, there seems to be a white elephant in the posting room. The elephant is the playing status of Seth Curry. It seems like most posters would like to see Quinn as out starting point guard, I, for one, have been on the Quinn bandwagon since last December when there was a pretty vocal group of folks on this board that wanted Quinn to start and play more minutes at the point.

Anyway, I wonder if there are posters out there that would rather see a backcourt of Quinn and Sulaimon, but just feel a bit sheepish about saying this. I think that Seth is more talented and capable than some past Duke seniors of note that have lost their starting spot late in their careers (Paulus, Capel, Newton) but it seems that there is some concern about overall backcourt size and defensive ability.

I know that Coach K doesn't promise anybody anything when he recruits them, and you're not guaranteed to continue in a starting role, just because you have had one in the past. Without knowing much more than a few highlight reels about Sulaimon, I can still say that his size and defensive reputation intrigues me. This will be Seth's fourth year in the program. While it may be a bit embarrassing to "lose" his spot to a freshman, I wonder if the team wouldn't be better served with Seth coming off of the bench as a 3-point sparkplug (as Paulus towards the end of his senior year).

I would personally like see Sulaimon get a lot of PT early and be ready as a taller, defensive-minded, 3-point shooting guard for when March rolls around. Obviously, he would have to really show it in practice for this to happen.

I wonder if Seth hasn't just run into a situation where he is not the best fit for this particular team, late in his career. With Quinn as the point guard, we really need a little more size on the perimeter. Alex definitely ups the overall team size, but I'm not sure if that's enough to absorb two 6-footers in the backcourt (that are not Duhon and Williams).

Kedsy
10-11-2012, 02:15 PM
The question is at the 2-spot. I think Curry will be given every chance to win that role and become one of the league's best scorers. But in the end, he will be surpassed in the rotation by Thornton's combination of defense, intangibles, and shooting (the latter of which, while not at Seth's level, will be good enough so that his other advantages carry the day). Sheed will play about 10 min a game. It'll be a learning year for him. I've basically done a complete 180 from what I thought the backcourt would be earlier in the summer. I believe in Cook and Thornton as the predominant backcourt by the end of the season, and as the backcourt that finishes games, and as the backcourt that combines with a great frontcourt to be a top-5 team.

This would surprise me, and in my opinion would be a very frustrating team to watch. The only shooter in a Quinn/Tyler/Alex/Ryan/Mason lineup is Ryan, and with his flat trajectory he tends to be streaky. Our opponents would just pack it in and watch Mason try to score over a triple team.

Obviously, we'll have to see about Rasheed. Based on his recruiting ranking and his defensive reputation, I would be very surprised if he averaged as little as 10 mpg.


To me, there seems to be a white elephant in the posting room. The elephant is the playing status of Seth Curry. It seems like most posters would like to see Quinn as out starting point guard, I, for one, have been on the Quinn bandwagon since last December when there was a pretty vocal group of folks on this board that wanted Quinn to start and play more minutes at the point.

Anyway, I wonder if there are posters out there that would rather see a backcourt of Quinn and Sulaimon, but just feel a bit sheepish about saying this. I think that Seth is more talented and capable than some past Duke seniors of note that have lost their starting spot late in their careers (Paulus, Capel, Newton) but it seems that there is some concern about overall backcourt size and defensive ability.

I know that Coach K doesn't promise anybody anything when he recruits them, and you're not guaranteed to continue in a starting role, just because you have had one in the past. Without knowing much more than a few highlight reels about Sulaimon, I can still say that his size and defensive reputation intrigues me. This will be Seth's fourth year in the program. While it may be a bit embarrassing to "lose" his spot to a freshman, I wonder if the team wouldn't be better served with Seth coming off of the bench as a 3-point sparkplug (as Paulus towards the end of his senior year).

I would personally like see Sulaimon get a lot of PT early and be ready as a taller, defensive-minded, 3-point shooting guard for when March rolls around. Obviously, he would have to really show it in practice for this to happen.

I wonder if Seth hasn't just run into a situation where he is not the best fit for this particular team, late in his career. With Quinn as the point guard, we really need a little more size on the perimeter. Alex definitely ups the overall team size, but I'm not sure if that's enough to absorb two 6-footers in the backcourt (that are not Duhon and Williams).

I'm not trying to be snarky, and I've already said most of this in previous posts (so I apologize for repeating myself), but I don't get this view at all.

Seth Curry was All ACC last year. Of returning ACC players, he received the 4th most votes in the All ACC voting.

Last season, Seth was 2nd on Duke's team in scoring and minutes played (and is our leading returning scorer and minute-getter) and led the team in assists, steals, and FT%. He is also our 2nd leading returning 3-point % shooter (to Ryan who shot 69 fewer 3-point shots).

Coach K has publicly opined that Seth will be the team's leading scorer and is our best perimeter player.

You really think he isn't going to start?

jimsumner
10-11-2012, 02:24 PM
This would surprise me, and in my opinion would be a very frustrating team to watch. The only shooter in a Quinn/Tyler/Alex/Ryan/Mason lineup is Ryan, and with his flat trajectory he tends to be streaky. Our opponents would just pack it in and watch Mason try to score over a triple team.

Obviously, we'll have to see about Rasheed. Based on his recruiting ranking and his defensive reputation, I would be very surprised if he averaged as little as 10 mpg.



I'm not trying to be snarky, and I've already said most of this in previous posts (so I apologize for repeating myself), but I don't get this view at all.

Seth Curry was All ACC last year. Of returning ACC players, he received the 4th most votes in the All ACC voting.

Last season, Seth was 2nd on Duke's team in scoring and minutes played (and is our leading returning scorer and minute-getter) and led the team in assists, steals, and FT%. He is also our 2nd leading returning 3-point % shooter (to Ryan who shot 69 fewer 3-point shots).

Coach K has publicly opined that Seth will be the team's leading scorer and is our best perimeter player.

You really think he isn't going to start?

I expect Curry to start and contend for first-team All-ACC honors. I also expect Sulaimon to get 20-25 mpg, backing up Curry at the 2, Murphy at the 3 and getting at least some burn at the point.

FerryFor50
10-11-2012, 02:29 PM
I think Curry will thrive not having to play PG with Cook coming along, Thornton being a year older and Sulaimon being able to handle the ball.

I think we will rebound better from the 1-3 positions.

I think the defense will be better, but not as good as Duke defenses have been in the past.

I think Amile Jefferson will only play spot minutes as he develops.

I expect this Duke team to finish with either the regular season ACC crown or the ACC tourny crown, but not both. A top 15 finish in the AP polls and likely a Sweet 16 or Elite 8.

I also hope I'm wrong and they're way better. :)

Cameron
10-11-2012, 03:09 PM
Anyway, I wonder if there are posters out there that would rather see a backcourt of Quinn and Sulaimon, but just feel a bit sheepish about saying this. I think that Seth is more talented and capable than some past Duke seniors of note that have lost their starting spot late in their careers (Paulus, Capel, Newton) but it seems that there is some concern about overall backcourt size and defensive ability.

I have absolutely no qualms in stating that any time Seth Curry is on the floor we are playing with four defenders and a pair of arms (which are there to launch threes and pick up the occasional backcourt theft). He is an alarming liability when asked to pony up and play D against elite guards. That really cannot be debated, at least too successfully, IMO.

With that said, Seth is a vaunted shooter, one of the most prolific in the entire game. When he gets on a roll, he's like Super Mario with unlimited fire power. Just as it is when Andre gets on one of those delicious rolls, and as it was with J.J. before him, when Seth gets into an I-am-in-a-f'ing-zone rhythm, you might as well just flip the switch and turn the building's lights out. It's over. And in order for Coach K's open, spacing-predicated offense to really work, it is imperative we have that variety of shooter stalking the perimeter.

He is going to play. Unlike Greg Paulus, who is among my favorite five Blue Devils ever, without question, Seth has enough of a handle and the creativity with the ball in his palms to take a game over offensively on his own. He is that kind of scorer. It just becomes an issue of the staff finding some sort of defensive wrinkle that will help to offset Seth's defensive woes (likely a difficult task as we are certainly never going to seriously entertain the idea of any sort of long-term zone, and I am fine with that), or pairing him, as I have been suggesting, in the backcourt with Rasheed at the point (if Rasheed proves ready), at least against teams where we are likely to get abused by quicker, taller, more athletic guards. Something will have to be done in those instances, because a Seth and Quinn backcourt versus an All-American caliber backcourt is a recipe for a lot of heart attacks.

NSDukeFan
10-11-2012, 03:43 PM
I have absolutely no qualms in stating that any time Seth Curry is on the floor we are playing with four defenders and a pair of arms (which are there to launch threes and pick up the occasional backcourt theft). He is an alarming liability when asked to pony up and play D against elite guards. That really cannot be debated, at least too successfully, IMO.

With that said, Seth is a vaunted shooter, one of the most prolific in the entire game. When he gets on a roll, he's like Super Mario with unlimited fire power. Just as it is when Andre gets on one of those delicious rolls, and as it was with J.J. before him, when Seth gets into an I-am-in-a-f'ing-zone rhythm, you might as well just flip the switch and turn the building's lights out. It's over. And in order for Coach K's open, spacing-predicated offense to really work, it is imperative we have that variety of shooter stalking the perimeter.

He is going to play. Unlike Greg Paulus, who is among my favorite five Blue Devils ever, without question, Seth has enough of a handle and the creativity with the ball in his palms to take a game over offensively on his own. He is that kind of scorer. It just becomes an issue of the staff finding some sort of defensive wrinkle that will help to offset Seth's defensive woes (likely a difficult task as we are certainly never going to seriously entertain the idea of any sort of long-term zone, and I am fine with that), or pairing him, as I have been suggesting, in the backcourt with Rasheed at the point (if Rasheed proves ready), at least against teams where we are likely to get abused by quicker, taller, more athletic guards. Something will have to be done in those instances, because a Seth and Quinn backcourt versus an All-American caliber backcourt is a recipe for a lot of heart attacks.

I would certainly strongly disagree with your first paragraph and am not sure how it cannot be debated when Seth was a starter on a team that ranked #8 in the country defensively in 2010-11. I don't think he has gotten worse as a defensive player with more time in Duke's system. He has not shown himself to be a defensive stopper so, like any current NCAA player besides perhaps Aaron Craft and Michael Snaer, he struggles to defend elite guards.

I agree he is a very strong offensive player, but don't see coach K trying to offset anything about Seth's game.

The other area I disagree is that Seth, Tyler and Quinn will get abused by all these teams of quicker, taller, more athletic guards. I don't think there are that many teams that have 2 big, quick and good wings that would be a difficult match up for Alex at one wing and Seth at the other wing. (My assumption: team defense is better this year.) I think anytime Duke goes against an All-American caliber backcourt this year that it will be a challenge and the team's defense will have to be at its best. Here are the teams that have at least one member of pre-season all American team in their backcourt from the lists I quickly looked at: Murray State, Ohio State, Lehigh, San Diego St., Arkansas, Louisville, Michigan, Missouri, Florida State, UCLA, Oklahoma State. UCLA has two players I have seen listed as potential wing all-Americans in Kyle Anderson and Shabazz Muhammad. In theory, if Duke played them, maybe Seth would have to guard someone much taller and slower than him (Anderson.) Otherwise, there aren't many teams that have an "All-American" backcourt that would not find it at least as challenging to guard Duke's guards.

Duke did not defend as well last year as in previous years and was small at all three perimeter positions. That is not likely to be the case for at least half the game this year. Along with some improved communication, I expect the team's defense to be much improved and do not think that any of the players will be seen as a liability if the whole team plays better as a unit.

Edouble
10-11-2012, 03:55 PM
This would surprise me, and in my opinion would be a very frustrating team to watch. The only shooter in a Quinn/Tyler/Alex/Ryan/Mason lineup is Ryan, and with his flat trajectory he tends to be streaky. Our opponents would just pack it in and watch Mason try to score over a triple team.

Obviously, we'll have to see about Rasheed. Based on his recruiting ranking and his defensive reputation, I would be very surprised if he averaged as little as 10 mpg.



I'm not trying to be snarky, and I've already said most of this in previous posts (so I apologize for repeating myself), but I don't get this view at all.

Seth Curry was All ACC last year. Of returning ACC players, he received the 4th most votes in the All ACC voting.

Last season, Seth was 2nd on Duke's team in scoring and minutes played (and is our leading returning scorer and minute-getter) and led the team in assists, steals, and FT%. He is also our 2nd leading returning 3-point % shooter (to Ryan who shot 69 fewer 3-point shots).

Coach K has publicly opined that Seth will be the team's leading scorer and is our best perimeter player.

You really think he isn't going to start?

I don't think it's snarky to state your opinion.

I remember this time last season Coach K saying that Seth was going to be our point guard.

I do not mean to sound snarky either, but I never said that I don't think he's going to start, I just wonder if the team would be better served overall with Seth coming off of the bench. I don't think that last season is particularly relevant as the backcourt that we have available this year is drastically different. We really needed Seth last year. Quinn was not at 100%, G was not ready to play it seems, Dre had pretty much checked out by Jan/Feb, Thornton's offense (or at least his green light on offense) was suspect.

After last season, the thing that really sticks with me is that we need the best defense possible. At this point, I think our best shot of having a lock down defender on the perimeter is with Sulaimon. While the comparison is not the exact same situation, it is pretty easy to see a Paulus/E. Will analogy with Seth/Sulaimon. Do we start a 6 foot senior 3 point bomber or a 6'4" freshman defender? I like Seth a lot, but I really want to see us have that traditional Duke D with that lock-down perimeter defender. Reading through this thread, I feel like this idea is on the tip of a lot of poster's tongues, but nobody wants to say it.

My expectations for this season include the coaching staff taking a long, hard look at how we can improve on D, which is why I feel like this is relevant to my expectations for 2012-13. It hurts to think about, but what if we run into another McCollum-type player in the first round next year? What player on this Duke team will make sure he is shut or at least slowed down?

jimsumner
10-11-2012, 04:12 PM
I don't think it's snarky to state your opinion.

I remember this time last season Coach K saying that Seth was going to be our point guard.

I do not mean to sound snarky either, but I never said that I don't think he's going to start, I just wonder if the team would be better served overall with Seth coming off of the bench. I don't think that last season is particularly relevant as the backcourt that we have available this year is drastically different. We really needed Seth last year. Quinn was not at 100%, G was not ready to play it seems, Dre had pretty much checked out by Jan/Feb, Thornton's offense (or at least his green light on offense) was suspect.

After last season, the thing that really sticks with me is that we need the best defense possible. At this point, I think our best shot of having a lock down defender on the perimeter is with Sulaimon. While the comparison is not the exact same situation, it is pretty easy to see a Paulus/E. Will analogy with Seth/Sulaimon. Do we start a 6 foot senior 3 point bomber or a 6'4" freshman defender? I like Seth a lot, but I really want to see us have that traditional Duke D with that lock-down perimeter defender. Reading through this thread, I feel like this idea is on the tip of a lot of poster's tongues, but nobody wants to say it.

My expectations for this season include the coaching staff taking a long, hard look at how we can improve on D, which is why I feel like this is relevant to my expectations for 2012-13. It hurts to think about, but what if we run into another McCollum-type player in the first round next year? What player on this Duke team will make sure he is shut or at least slowed down?

A 6-footer?

If Curry keeps shrinking, they're going to have to find a new uniform for him.

Kedsy
10-11-2012, 04:41 PM
I don't think it's snarky to state your opinion.

I remember this time last season Coach K saying that Seth was going to be our point guard.

I do not mean to sound snarky either, but I never said that I don't think he's going to start, I just wonder if the team would be better served overall with Seth coming off of the bench. I don't think that last season is particularly relevant as the backcourt that we have available this year is drastically different. We really needed Seth last year. Quinn was not at 100%, G was not ready to play it seems, Dre had pretty much checked out by Jan/Feb, Thornton's offense (or at least his green light on offense) was suspect.

After last season, the thing that really sticks with me is that we need the best defense possible. At this point, I think our best shot of having a lock down defender on the perimeter is with Sulaimon. While the comparison is not the exact same situation, it is pretty easy to see a Paulus/E. Will analogy with Seth/Sulaimon. Do we start a 6 foot senior 3 point bomber or a 6'4" freshman defender? I like Seth a lot, but I really want to see us have that traditional Duke D with that lock-down perimeter defender. Reading through this thread, I feel like this idea is on the tip of a lot of poster's tongues, but nobody wants to say it.

My expectations for this season include the coaching staff taking a long, hard look at how we can improve on D, which is why I feel like this is relevant to my expectations for 2012-13. It hurts to think about, but what if we run into another McCollum-type player in the first round next year? What player on this Duke team will make sure he is shut or at least slowed down?

I share your desire for a stronger D, and I agree that a great place to start rebuilding that D is with Rasheed. Where we differ is how to achieve that. I see Rasheed as playing ~25 mpg, split between all three perimeter spots, but with Seth still averaging 30 to 35 mpg. If we run into another McCollum, maybe Rasheed needs to play 30+ minutes (assuming he proves himself to be a true defensive stopper, something we can't know yet), and one or more of our other guards (Seth, Quinn, Tyler) plays fewer minutes in that particular game.

In the past, the Duke defensive scheme has been successful covering for one player with a defensive disadvantage, or even two. You mention Greg Paulus, but our defensive efficiency was ranked 13th, 5th, and 9th in the country by Pomeroy during the three seasons when Greg was a primary starter for us. Last year we often played with both a size and (foot) quickness disadvantage at all three perimeter positions, so it was hard to cover for that. This season, this shouldn't be the case, even when Quinn and Seth are both in the lineup. Rasheed should measure up quickness-wise and in most cases size-wise; Alex should be taller than most of his opponents (I'm not sure how his quickness will measure up); Quinn's feet will hopefully be quicker, assuming his injury is a thing of the past. Tyler will be Tyler.

Seth's defense may not be a plus for us (other than his very quick hands), but I don't think it's the disaster some are making it out to be. Or, put another way, he brings so much on offense it would be hard to justify sitting him for defensive purposes within the context of this year's team.

Kedsy
10-11-2012, 04:46 PM
I remember this time last season Coach K saying that Seth was going to be our point guard.

I remember that, too, but with Coach K I think there's a difference between him saying what position someone's going to play and him saying someone's one of our best players and is going to play a lot. He has always seemed a lot more flexible and willing to re-think positions, but less so about the top of the rotation.

Cameron
10-11-2012, 04:51 PM
I would certainly strongly disagree with your first paragraph and am not sure how it cannot be debated when Seth was a starter on a team that ranked #8 in the country defensively in 2010-11. I don't think he has gotten worse as a defensive player with more time in Duke's system. He has not shown himself to be a defensive stopper so, like any current NCAA player besides perhaps Aaron Craft and Michael Snaer, he struggles to defend elite guards.

My tone may be a bit too end-of-the-world (I am naturally hyperbolic at times; I am never going to literally put a bullet in my head even if I say I will if we lose to North Carolina), but I'd strongly contend that Seth's less than stellar overall defensive game was greatly compensated for over the course of the 2010-11 season by playing in the backcourt alongside Nolan Smith, the best defender on the perimeter in the league that year and probably the whole nation. We don't have another defender already on the team like that this year, and certainly didn't last year.

So, it's not my view that Seth has "gotten worse," but moreso that he just hasn't improved all that much, at least enough to suggest a noticeable difference like was clearly evident with Nolan's game over the years. Granted, Nolan came into college as a more naturally gifted defender than did Curry.


I agree he is a very strong offensive player, but don't see coach K trying to offset anything about Seth's game.

Mainly by "offset" I just mean that against the teams that do feature elite level shooting guards like the examples mentioned in your post, it might make more sense to pair Seth with a more versatile player like Rasheed (again, if he proves up to the task) who can help Seth carry the load defensively against players who cause problematic matchups physically and/or athletically. While we may not face many of these types of backcourts throughout the regular-season (although Miami, Kentucky and N.C. State come to mind), it has been our backcourt's inability to stop the explosiveness of these precise kinds of players that has led to some of our struggles in recent NCAA Tournaments (Eric Maynor of VCU and C.J. McCollum last year, as good examples).


[T]here aren't many teams that have an "All-American" backcourt that would not find it at least as challenging to guard Duke's guards.

Agreed fully.


Duke did not defend as well last year as in previous years and was small at all three perimeter positions. That is not likely to be the case for at least half the game this year. Along with some improved communication, I expect the team's defense to be much improved and do not think that any of the players will be seen as a liability if the whole team plays better as a unit.

This is a very valid point and one I hope turns out to be true. The presence of Alex Murphy will certainly lend to helping immensely in this category.

jimsumner
10-11-2012, 05:07 PM
I remember that, too, but with Coach K I think there's a difference between him saying what position someone's going to play and him saying someone's one of our best players and is going to play a lot. He has always seemed a lot more flexible and willing to re-think positions, but less so about the top of the rotation.

Duke began last season with the idea that its optimal lineup included all of Curry, Rivers and Dawkins. All natural college 2s.

The best way to get that trio on the floor at the same time was to play Curry at the point and Dawkins at the 3. Essentially, a freshman and two guys playing out of position.

This season Curry goes back to his natural position, while Duke fills the small forward spot with an actual small forward. No one playing out of position.

Should be a cause for some confidence.

wk2109
10-12-2012, 11:36 AM
Nice article on Quinn, Marshall, and Alex re: their summer overseas experiences http://www.goduke.com//ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=205709844

I think the success of Quinn and Alex depends a lot on their confidence. If they can confidently step into the 1 and 3 spots, Duke will be very good this year. I also hope that Marshall will be able to bang around inside for 10 mpg.

sagegrouse
10-12-2012, 01:37 PM
I don't like to make this problem too hard. Here's a table that supports my guess about the distribution:



Ave. 2012 Guess
Bigs
Kelly 20.0 25.9 27.5
MP2 20.0 28.4 27.5
MP3 20.0 NA 15.0
Wings, Tweeners
Josh 20.0 7.3 15.0
Alex 20.0 NA 20.0
Amile 20.0 NA 15.0
Guards
Curry 20.0 30.2 25.0
Tyler 20.0 21.1 15.0
Cook 20.0 11.4 25.0
Sulaimon 20.0 NA 15.0
200.0 124.3 200.0

Ten players -- 20 minutes each?? Probably not, but I think all of the guys will get minutes.

Column two is last year (with some adjustments).

I see Kelly, MP2, Curry and Cook as the four stars of the team -- getting 25-27.5 minutes each. Alex should start and get about half the minutes available. The others get lots of burn time.

Does it work? Well, the "bigs" get 70 minutes a game, meaning that for ten minutes, only one of the three is on the court. The four guards get 80 minutes, which means there is little use of a three-guard lineup. (Hmmmm.....) The wing players or "tweeners" get 50 minutes.

How about the "all-floor team," which is tall but able to run: MP2, Alex, Amile or Josh, and Sulaimon with Quinn at the point to distribute the ball.

Anyway, an idea or two here, perhaps.

sagegrouse

Jderf
10-12-2012, 01:46 PM
I have absolutely no qualms in stating that any time Seth Curry is on the floor we are playing with four defenders and a pair of arms (which are there to launch threes and pick up the occasional backcourt theft). He is an alarming liability when asked to pony up and play D against elite guards. That really cannot be debated, at least too successfully, IMO.

I'm surprised at the turn this thread seems to have taken lately. Since when did Seth become the source of all our defensive woes last season? Didn't we have a thorough, season-long analysis of last year's defense which consistently showed that Seth was actually a perfectly capable defender?

I mean, I understand if you found something to nitpick in the methods/results given by the various data-mongers on the board (although I found it to be pretty solid), but I don't get how such a position could suddenly become so taken for granted that it "cannot be debated." Especially when the whole argument seems to be "he's 6'2 and 180 lbs, therefore he can't defend."

licc85
10-12-2012, 03:07 PM
I'm surprised at the turn this thread seems to have taken lately. Since when did Seth become the source of all our defensive woes last season? Didn't we have a thorough, season-long analysis of last year's defense which consistently showed that Seth was actually a perfectly capable defender?

I mean, I understand if you found something to nitpick in the methods/results given by the various data-mongers on the board (although I found it to be pretty solid), but I don't get how such a position could suddenly become so taken for granted that it "cannot be debated." Especially when the whole argument seems to be "he's 6'2 and 180 lbs, therefore he can't defend."

Well, I'm fine with Seth, he's probably our most talented player on offense and I think he should play 30+ mins a game, but if you watch the kid play, he just doesn't pass the eye test as a defender. He's got quick hands, which lets him get a good number of steals, but unfortunately . . . he's just slow. I don't know if it's because he has short legs or he's just not athletic, but he's just not good at keeping his man in front of him. In college, it's okay to have a guy like Seth if you have someone else on the perimeter who CAN defend, like Nolan Smith in 2011.

Last year, Seth played most of his minutes with Austin Rivers, Tyler Thornton, or Quinn Cook as the other guard. All 3 of those guys, quite frankly, are sub-par defenders. Even Thornton, who is constantly praised by commentators as a good defender, in my opinion is annoying as a defender, but he's no Nolan Smith, not even close. Furthermore,Seth is not 6'2", he's 6'1" with shoes on, meaning he is a very undersized 2-guard, which is why Coach K tried so hard to convert him into a point guard last year. You can't take on most of the 2-guards in the ACC giving up 3-4 inches and 20 pounds without some help on defense. This is why some of us, myself included, believe Rasheed needs to be on the floor with Seth so that he may guard opposing guards who will undoubtedly give Seth trouble on defense.

Seth was by no means the "source" of all of our defensive woes, but he was definitely a part of them. The other main problem being our lack of a guy who could match up with opposing 3s. Hopefully, Alex Murphy is the answer at that position. I also think Amile is going to be a huge asset on defense with his cerebral approach to the game and loooooong arms. Our defense will be much improved this year. (And to be honest, the only direction we can go is up from last year . . . we were BAD) Rasheed will be a welcome addition on the perimeter as well. I just don't think we can go with Seth AND Quinn as our 2 guards if we are playing against a dangerous guard, it's gotta be Rasheed and one of the 2, but not both.

jcastranio
10-12-2012, 03:08 PM
I'm surprised at the turn this thread seems to have taken lately. Since when did Seth become the source of all our defensive woes last season? Didn't we have a thorough, season-long analysis of last year's defense which consistently showed that Seth was actually a perfectly capable defender?

I mean, I understand if you found something to nitpick in the methods/results given by the various data-mongers on the board (although I found it to be pretty solid), but I don't get how such a position could suddenly become so taken for granted that it "cannot be debated." Especially when the whole argument seems to be "he's 6'2 and 180 lbs, therefore he can't defend."

The Duke man-to-man, overplaying the pass and taking away the three point shot, depends heavily on the concept of "help" defense. We didn't do that very well, last year. Poor communication, lack of a total commitment to team defense, lacking either a tall athletic 2 guard and/or a long, athletic 3. There were a lot of factors. Duke doesn't really depend on having a lock-down defender who stops the other team cold (although we have had that). We depend on five players working together. Just didn't happen last year.

This year will be different.

We have size at the 4,5, and 3.
Trading Miles for Marshall (even if for just ten minutes a game) will help the defense. Marshall is bigger and will, I believe, actually stay on the ground and in position more often than Miles (no offense, Miles - I loved ya)
Alex and Amile bring a different component - defensively.
The return of the proper-sized "3" helps with the smaller "1" and "2" that we will occasionally play. And ... with Rasheed and Tyler, we won't always be small at both positions.

It just isn't about some tall guard taking advantage of Seth's smaller stature and shooting over him for 25 points while the rest of the Duke team stands helplessly by. Seth's job would be to take away the 3 point shot, play those passing lanes, and funnel stronger opponents into the help defense. He, like the rest of the Duke team, needs to play better team defense. But, he is not a liability by himself. Not in our system, the way it should be played.

Dr. Rosenrosen
10-12-2012, 03:39 PM
The Duke man-to-man, overplaying the pass and taking away the three point shot, depends heavily on the concept of "help" defense. We didn't do that very well, last year. Poor communication, lack of a total commitment to team defense, lacking either a tall athletic 2 guard and/or a long, athletic 3. There were a lot of factors. Duke doesn't really depend on having a lock-down defender who stops the other team cold (although we have had that). We depend on five players working together. Just didn't happen last year.

This year will be different.

We have size at the 4,5, and 3.
Trading Miles for Marshall (even if for just ten minutes a game) will help the defense. Marshall is bigger and will, I believe, actually stay on the ground and in position more often than Miles (no offense, Miles - I loved ya)
Alex and Amile bring a different component - defensively.
The return of the proper-sized "3" helps with the smaller "1" and "2" that we will occasionally play. And ... with Rasheed and Tyler, we won't always be small at both positions.

It just isn't about some tall guard taking advantage of Seth's smaller stature and shooting over him for 25 points while the rest of the Duke team stands helplessly by. Seth's job would be to take away the 3 point shot, play those passing lanes, and funnel stronger opponents into the help defense. He, like the rest of the Duke team, needs to play better team defense. But, he is not a liability by himself. Not in our system, the way it should be played.
Thank you! It's all about team D!

I'm not discounting the value of individual athleticism and smarts. But I still cannot understand why some continue to harp on this player's ability or that player's height or reach or athleticism but ignore the importance of communication skills and ability to play effectively as part of a team defensive scheme. I also don't understand the declarations that Rasheed and Amile (and Alex and Marshall for that matter) are all individually, and therefore collectively, going to dramatically improve our defense. None of them has played a single college game. Lots to learn. And I hope it comes fast. But neither their speed, height, reach or any other measure of physical ability tells us ANYTHING about what they will do on the court TOGETHER. This is not a negative assessment or prediction of what we will see - just a reality check. I will predict that as soon as THIS GROUP learns to play good team D, we'll see what we have historically come to expect from Duke on the defensive end.

wk2109
10-12-2012, 04:24 PM
To be big you need to 'play big' and K hasn't done that recently, choosing instead to play 3 guard lineups. Then when the size you do have on the court is being pulled away from the basket to guard there man, you get even smaller.

If by recently you mean the past 1 year, then you're right -- but in 2010 and 2011 Kyle started at the 3. Also, Duke was #1 last season in 'effective height' according to kenpom.com (perhaps because of the Plumlee/Plumlee/Kelly rotation at the 4 and 5), so while the team didn't seem particularly big, it certainly wasn't small relative to the rest of the country.

As has been reiterated many times on this board, Duke has had plenty of defensive success with three guard lineups. From 2003-2006, when Duke played almost exclusively with three guard lineups, the defense ranked 15, 4, 1, and 13. It really is about the team defense. The reason the defense was so good in 2010 was not because Kyle and Jon were such great on-the-ball defenders, it was because that 5-man starting lineup was so strong as a unit. Lance and Zoubek had those defensive rotations down to a T and the bigs, Zoubek and Miles in particular, cleaned up the defensive glass.

I'm not sure how much value there is to looking at a player's height and seeing if it is the ideal size for a defender at a certain position. It's not like basketball is a game where each player matches up with his counterpart and does a series of jumping, quickness, and agility tests or a comparison of wingspan and height measurements. Obviously there's some significance to height/athleticism, but it's the grasp of team defensive concepts that will make the difference between this year and last year. If seniors Mason and Ryan can anchor the interior like seniors Lance and Zoubek did, that will be a good start.

Mike Corey
10-12-2012, 04:28 PM
Coach K announced at his press conference that Quinn Cook is the starting PG, and Thornton will be backing him up.

He's also said that Mason has the chance to be one of the best players in the country and that it's "his time to be key."

Added that Murphy reminds him of Singler, has the chance to be an outstanding player.

And says we don't have typical "breakdown" players.

This all per the Twitter feed of the Duke Chronicle and Laura Keeley.

dcar1985
10-12-2012, 04:40 PM
Coach K announced at his press conference that Quinn Cook is the starting PG, and Thornton will be backing him up.

He's also said that Mason has the chance to be one of the best players in the country and that it's "his time to be key."

Added that Murphy reminds him of Singler, has the chance to be an outstanding player.

And says we don't have typical "breakdown" players.

This all per the Twitter feed of the Duke Chronicle and Laura Keeley.


Another interesting quote from the press conference via Laura Keeley...."Seth Curry won't be doing any offensive point guard duties and will be doing minimal on-ball defense."

Kedsy
10-12-2012, 04:52 PM
Ten players -- 20 minutes each?? Probably not, but I think all of the guys will get minutes.

I personally would like it if everyone played a lot, but history suggests there is absolutely no way Coach K will have ten guys playing 15+ minutes a game. Especially if you split out the early part of the season from the season after January 1. We'll be lucky to see eight guys playing that much, and the smart money would be on seven.

Cameron
10-12-2012, 05:27 PM
I'm surprised at the turn this thread seems to have taken lately. Since when did Seth become the source of all our defensive woes last season? Didn't we have a thorough, season-long analysis of last year's defense which consistently showed that Seth was actually a perfectly capable defender?

I mean, I understand if you found something to nitpick in the methods/results given by the various data-mongers on the board (although I found it to be pretty solid), but I don't get how such a position could suddenly become so taken for granted that it "cannot be debated." Especially when the whole argument seems to be "he's 6'2 and 180 lbs, therefore he can't defend."

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think I ever said that Seth was "the source of all our defensive woes last season." I just don't think that Seth, outside of having excellent intangibles and quick hands that are conducive to picking up periodic steals -- is a good defender when it comes to playing against high-quality backcourts that feature one or two really efficient drivers. I am not blaming his size completely, but I have to imagine that his smaller stature and less than speedy lateral quickness are not doing Seth any favors defensively. Licc85 all ready covered my opinion on this matter really well, but I feel an integral factor for a team to be truly successful is the presence of at least one really effective perimeter defender in the backcourt who can be counted on to adequately control dribble penetration. We didn't have that last year. We did in 2010 and 2011. And the contrast in defensive success of 2010 and '11 versus 2012 is rather striking. That's where the addition of a player like Rasheed in the backcourt, who has the potential to be a dynamic defender, would make a tremendous difference.

As expressed by Jcastranio, the problem with our overall defensive performance a year ago was a much larger issue than just Seth or any other single player. It was a team-wide issue that involved many different components, including poor team communication, weak help-side tendencies and just overall below-average instincts on the defensive end of the floor. There just didn't seem to be that will to succeed on defense, that get-down-and-play passion that was inherently associated with our very best teams. At certain times last season, I got the impression that a few of our guys were just trying to fight through the boredom until they could get their hands on the ball again. That's never going to win you games. Defense is something that takes a unit of five to really achieve greatness, as others have all ready more eloquently stated.

Cameron
10-12-2012, 05:29 PM
Another interesting quote from the press conference via Laura Keeley...."Seth Curry won't be doing any offensive point guard duties and will be doing minimal on-ball defense."

This is very relieving to hear. And the second part of that -- re: finding a place for Seth on the defensive end where he won't hurt us -- is something that I knew the staff was probably trying to work on. It will be interesting to see what that exactly means as the season plays out.

sagegrouse
10-12-2012, 05:52 PM
I personally would like it if everyone played a lot, but history suggests there is absolutely no way Coach K will have ten guys playing 15+ minutes a game. Especially if you split out the early part of the season from the season after January 1. We'll be lucky to see eight guys playing that much, and the smart money would be on seven.

Yeah, you are probably right, but I keep hoping. Here's my thinking -- Marshall is gonna get playing time spelling Ryan and Mason. Alex will start as a wing player, but Josh, because of his energy and experience, and Amile, because of his quickness and length, will get time. I really think all four guards will get plenty of minutes: three of them played last year, and I feel confident that Rasheed will play.

Where are the weaknesses in the everyone plays argument, Sage asks rhetorically? Well, Marshall and Amile may not be ready and may only get a few minutes. Or, God help us, someone may get hurt.

But I see eight at a minimum and more probably nine. But I'll stand by my ridiculous projection that ten players will get double-digit minutes.

sagegrouse

Kedsy
10-12-2012, 06:06 PM
Where are the weaknesses in the everyone plays argument, Sage asks rhetorically?

I sometimes enjoy answering rhetorical questions, so here goes. Coach K appears to believe that his best players should play as much as they can handle (without losing effectiveness). So, Mason and Ryan will probably play 30+ minutes (foul trouble permitting), rather than the 27.5 you assigned them. If Seth is our best perimeter player (which K seems to think, despite apparent DBR misgivings), he's going to play close to 35 minutes and not 25. Similarly, if Alex is our best big wing player and Rasheed is our best 6th man, they'll probably play closer to 25 and 20, instead of the 20 and 15 you assigned them. And if you add up the minutes I've hypothesized, plus 40 combined for Quinn and Tyler, it only leaves 20 minutes combined for the last three guys (Marshall, Josh, Amile). Even if Quinn and Tyler combine for less than 40 (because Rasheed gets some of his minutes at PG) then we'd end up with something like 30 minutes for the last four guys (including Tyler with the three backup bigs). It still adds up to the 7th guy getting 10 to 15 mpg, the 8th guy getting 10 mpg, and the 9th and 10th guys splitting 5 to 10 minutes.

There are those who have stated it all depends on the amount of dropoff between the player subbing out and the player subbing in. And this may be true, but I can't remember a season where K thought dropping the top three or four players by 5 minutes to increase the bottom three or four players by 5 minutes was worth doing. So, until he does it, I'm in the camp that says he isn't going to.

Kedsy
10-12-2012, 06:22 PM
I see Kelly, MP2, Curry and Cook as the four stars of the team -- getting 25-27.5 minutes each.

To underscore my point, in contrast to the 25 and 25 minute averages that you have predicted for our top two perimeter players, here is a chart of our top two perimeter minute-getters since 2001:



Year Minutes
---- ---------
2012 33, 30
2011 35, 34
2010 37, 36
2009 33, 30
2008 31, 28
2007 34, 32
2006 37, 32
2005 37, 35
2004 35, 31
2003 36, 31
2002 35, 34
2001 32, 29


The closest we've come to your model in the 21st century was 9 mpg more than you're predicting. The average is 16 mpg more than you're predicting. Some coaches seem to like the 15-to-25-mpg-for-everyone model, but K doesn't seem to be one of them.

Bob Green
10-12-2012, 07:02 PM
1. I expect our seniors to step up and lead the team. Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly and Seth Curry have to be leaders 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

2. I expect improvement from last year's sophomores and freshmen. Tyler Thornton, Quinn Cook and Josh Hairston must be better and more consistent players than they were last season.

3. I have no expectations for the freshmen, but I do have "hopes and dreams" which include: I hope Rasheed Sulaimon is a solid perimeter defender. I hope Alex Murphy is strong and versatile. I hope Marshall Plumlee is better than his brothers, because they are damn good and we all want Marshall to be "Tony the Tiger" great! I hope Amile Jefferson is as quick and agile as advertised. There have been some Antawn Jamison comparisons battered about. How great would that be? Of course, it takes time for the freshmen to adjust to the speed of the game.

Finally, I expect the guys to go out and work as hard as they can to be the best they can.

NM Duke Fan
10-12-2012, 07:09 PM
I sometimes enjoy answering rhetorical questions, so here goes. Coach K appears to believe that his best players should play as much as they can handle (without losing effectiveness). So, Mason and Ryan will probably play 30+ minutes (foul trouble permitting), rather than the 27.5 you assigned them. If Seth is our best perimeter player (which K seems to think, despite apparent DBR misgivings), he's going to play close to 35 minutes and not 25. Similarly, if Alex is our best big wing player and Rasheed is our best 6th man, they'll probably play closer to 25 and 20, instead of the 20 and 15 you assigned them. And if you add up the minutes I've hypothesized, plus 40 combined for Quinn and Tyler, it only leaves 20 minutes combined for the last three guys (Marshall, Josh, Amile). Even if Quinn and Tyler combine for less than 40 (because Rasheed gets some of his minutes at PG) then we'd end up with something like 30 minutes for the last four guys (including Tyler with the three backup bigs). It still adds up to the 7th guy getting 10 to 15 mpg, the 8th guy getting 10 mpg, and the 9th and 10th guys splitting 5 to 10 minutes.

There are those who have stated it all depends on the amount of dropoff between the player subbing out and the player subbing in. And this may be true, but I can't remember a season where K thought dropping the top three or four players by 5 minutes to increase the bottom three or four players by 5 minutes was worth doing. So, until he does it, I'm in the camp that says he isn't going to.

From my perspective this looks to be a pretty good estimate of playing time, based on past patterns and the current players.

Was glad to hear that Cook is the starting point guard.

Rasheed is not mentioned within that point guard rotation, though I imagine he could see a bit of time there in a pinch. But his playing time will likely almost entirely come from subbing in at the two and three. I could see him getting approximately the playing time you mentioned, at the beginning of the year. But it wouldn't surprise me if this creeps up as the year goes by. Along with a few other posters, I feel his defensive capacities, size, and aggressiveness will be critical to the success of the team. And against some teams that present particular match-up problems, he could get even more playing time, and some of that might have to come at the expense of a more experienced and older player.

Anyway, it is nice to have a guard rotation of 4 players, all of whom can contribute in their own unique ways.

Big Pappa
10-12-2012, 11:16 PM
Thought this was interesting and I didn't see it posted anywhere. At Duke's basketball media day Coach K talked about the other two starting spots and said that he expects Quinn and Alex to take them. Here is an excerpt from the Fay Observer article:

"Last year, point guard Quinn Cook spent most of the preseason recovering from knee surgery. Coach Mike Krzyzewski said Friday he expects Cook to start as a sophomore and have Tyler Thornton come off the bench. Redshirt freshman Alex Murphy is the most likely candidate to step in at the '3' spot."

It also talks about Seth and Marshall dealing with somewhat minor injuries. Here is the full article:

http://m.fayobserver.com/articles/2012/10/12/1210564

Biscuitboy
10-13-2012, 01:48 AM
I agree with these predictions, assuming no major injuries. Teams with three starting seniors tend to perform better than the pundits give them credit for.

As with last season, defense will be the key. I'm assuming our D will get back to the Duke D to which we've become accustomed, but that remains to be proven, of course.

With a veteran team, I expect we'll get through the early non-conference juggernaut with probably one loss, although neither zero losses nor two losses would surprise me all that much. I expect us to be the class of the ACC, much to the surprise and chagrin of the other triangle teams. I expect us to be a #1 seed, or maybe a #2. Despite dire DBR poster's predictions after tough road losses, I don't think we'll lose in the first weekend of the NCAAT. Once we've hit the 2nd weekend, though, you never know what will happen in the most unpredictable sporting event out there.

I predict lots of arguing and gnashing of teeth here at DBR over the rotation. But by the end of the season, we're going to be down to our usual 7 man rotation, maybe 8 if we fans get lucky. I expect Seth, Mason, Ryan, Quinn, Alex, Rasheed, and Tyler to be part of that rotation, so then it comes down to which of Marshall, Amile, and Josh becomes the 8th man, because the other two won't play much once January 1 rolls around. My guess is Amile emerges as the 8th man, but that's just a gut feel. Could be any of them. As far as the point guard "argument," I expect Tyler's minutes will dwindle town to around 10 mpg by the end of the season, but Tyler has always stymied my predictive powers, so you never know.

As with last season, defense will be the key: I couldn't agree more. Our team defense was woeful last year. Was it an abberation? We are returning several of the same players who contributed to our uncharacteristic, yet consistent defensive collapse. Duke defense requires on the ball pressure. Who is that stalllwart? I don't think it's Seth Curry, and he will play 25+ minutes as a shooting guard/point guard. Can Quinn Cook be that point of attack on defense and run the offense? Last year's performance says no emphatically. That's a coaching opportunity. Between Tyler Thornton and 'Sheed, those two have the strongest potential to stop the ball.

It doesn't end with on ball pressure. On the blocks, we allowed regular and consistent access to the basket. That's where communication and discipline rule. Plumlee 2 and Kelly should be able to lock down the rim down low. They are natural shot blockers, however we need people in position to deny access to the hoop. Huge. Sheldon Williams was the landlord. We have two players who will play significant minutes that should be able to swat a lot of easy attempted shots away. In the box is where a lot of clean up must occur defensively if we are to deliver consistent powerful defense.
Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler were warriors. They tangled on both sides of the ball. Ryan Kelly's performance on defense will show where this team will end up NCAA tournament time. He's too smart and too gifted as a 4th year senior not to have a positive impact defensively.

Offensively, my hope is that Quinn Cook delivers on his potential and puts the ball in the right player's hands. He's the most natural point guard we've had in several years. I hope he's up to the challenge. And he has Ryan Kelly to support him in spacing the floor and finding the right scoring opportunity. I want the rest of the team to play on instinct.
I believe that Quinn Cook and Ryan Kelly's performance on both sides of the ball will determine how successful Duke is this season. Seth Curry is going to be Seth Curry, no surprises. Same with Mason. There's a mish mash of Hairston/Plumlee 3/ 'Sheed/Amile/Alex/Tyler that will be fighting for minutes. That story will be part of the fun. If Duke is to compete for ACC honors and NCAA Tournament success (elite 8 minimum), Duke will need to lock down defensively and limit opponents scoring. That will happen (or not) if we put pressure on the ball (iffy) and we control the paint (reasonable).

I can't wait!!

jipops
10-13-2012, 03:49 PM
Depending on the extensiveness of Marshall's injury, I expect to see Kelly logging close to 40mpg. Not that I expected to see Marshall become a part of the rotation, but Kelly will most likely be playing the big forward spot as well as center when Mason gets a breather or is caught in foul trouble. We don't have anyone else who can do that. This opens up more opportunity for Hairston.

Injuries are inevitable. How we are able to compensate for them is always key. We weren't able to at all when Kelly was out.

Kedsy
10-13-2012, 11:38 PM
Depending on the extensiveness of Marshall's injury, I expect to see Kelly logging close to 40mpg.

As I mentioned in the Marshall Plumlee injury thread, I don't think this is something to get concerned about. It's easy to map out a rotation where Mason and Ryan are both on the floor for 20 minutes and each of them play center for 10 minutes with either Josh or Amile at PF. That would mean each of Mason and Ryan would play about 30 minutes, which is what I would expect of them with or without Marshall's injury.

Put another way, I expect Marshall, Josh, and Amile to split 20 minutes at C/PF. If Marshall is healthy, he'll get some of those 20 minutes. If he isn't healthy, then Amile and Josh will have to divvy up the 20 minutes amongst themselves. Doesn't really affect Mason or Ryan at all.

trinity79
10-13-2012, 11:45 PM
Depending on the extensiveness of Marshall's injury, I expect to see Kelly logging close to 40mpg.

So, then, let's play Kelly for 40 mpg to prevent him from getting hurt this year? I don't think the answer to frontcourt depth is playing Kelly or Mason for 40 minutes. Better to face the reality of playing Murphy and/or Hairston or even Jefferson as "relievers" up front. Remember, Singler played a good bit at the 5 spot in his early days at Duke.

jcastranio
10-14-2012, 09:04 AM
There may be a slight increase in Mason/Ryan minutes, because of Marshall being out. More likely puts us with Amile or Josh on the floor (as a big) for 8-10 more minutes. This will hurt the defense a bit, depending on the match-ups, because you can't coach seven feet tall.

Now, depending on the team we play, it could have an impact. If it was a team that Marshall would not have matched up well against (a small, athletic team) - Marshall wouldn't have played much anyway. Again a team with frontcourt size and depth - it hurts. Marshall is has height and size that Josh and Amile can't replicate. It could lead to foul trouble for Mason/Ryan - meaning fewer minutes for them and even more minutes for a smaller lineup in a game when we want to go bigger.

The coaching staff will certainly adjust game strategy (for certain opponents) while Marshall is out.

Darn.

Newton_14
10-14-2012, 09:15 AM
There may be a slight increase in Mason/Ryan minutes, because of Marshall being out. More likely puts us with Amile or Josh on the floor (as a big) for 8-10 more minutes. This will hurt the defense a bit, depending on the match-ups, because you can't coach seven feet tall.

Now, depending on the team we play, it could have an impact. If it was a team that Marshall would not have matched up well against (a small, athletic team) - Marshall wouldn't have played much anyway. Again a team with frontcourt size and depth - it hurts. Marshall is has height and size that Josh and Amile can't replicate. It could lead to foul trouble for Mason/Ryan - meaning fewer minutes for them and even more minutes for a smaller lineup in a game when we want to go bigger.

The coaching staff will certainly adjust game strategy (for certain opponents) while Marshall is out.

Darn.

Maybe not. While Amile lacks bulk, he as great length and quickness, skills that to me are just as important as height. If Amile can pick up on Duke's help defense scheme's quickly, he can be a real asset in the paint. Josh is a good defender on most college PF's. Even with Marshall out, we still have 5 capable post defenders. 2 that can guard college 5's for sure (Mason/Ryan), 1 that can guard college PF's and some college Centers (Amile), and 2 (Murph/Josh) that can guard college PF's.

I would certainly prefer to have MP3 as an option to defend centers, and hope he gets back soon, but we do have options to get by until he returns.

jcastranio
10-14-2012, 09:42 AM
Maybe not. While Amile lacks bulk, he as great length and quickness, skills that to me are just as important as height. If Amile can pick up on Duke's help defense scheme's quickly, he can be a real asset in the paint. Josh is a good defender on most college PF's. Even with Marshall out, we still have 5 capable post defenders. 2 that can guard college 5's for sure (Mason/Ryan), 1 that can guard college PF's and some college Centers (Amile), and 2 (Murph/Josh) that can guard college PF's.

I would certainly prefer to have MP3 as an option to defend centers, and hope he gets back soon, but we do have options to get by until he returns.

I'm with you. I agree that Amile and Josh will be solid players for us. I just think that not having the big guy for certain games and situations will cause us to need better team defense - something that Amile may not pick up as quickly. The Duke big men have a lot to learn when it comes to team defense - hedge and recover, guarding out to the 3 point line, jump or don't jump, help and recover, where and how to box out - and Amile will learn that. It just takes time. While Marshall certainly hasn't proven himself trained in that area, he was seven feet tall.

Not a game-changer, just sets our defensive progress back.

Bay Area Duke Fan
10-14-2012, 05:34 PM
With Marshall injured, won't that result in more time with a "small" lineup that includes Alex as a 4 and Rasheed playing 3 ?

Kedsy
10-14-2012, 09:28 PM
With Marshall injured, won't that result in more time with a "small" lineup that includes Alex as a 4 and Rasheed playing 3 ?

It's possible, but I don't know that the odds of this happening increase too much. I don't think anyone expected Marshall to be much more than a 10 minute a game backup, and that only if he beat out Amile and Josh for the primary frontcourt backup duties.

Now, most likely is Amile and Josh split the (approximately) 20 frontcourt backup minutes (which they might have been doing anyway). If Amile proves not ready to take that role, then it's possible Alex could slide over to PF for a few minutes a game, but my guess is the first choice would still be for Amile and Josh to grab those minutes if they can.

Having said all that, your scenario could also possibly materialize as a late game strategy to get as many ballhandlers on the court as possible. But again, I don't know that Marshall's injury has much if any effect on the odds of that happening.

Indoor66
10-15-2012, 06:59 AM
It's possible, but I don't know that the odds of this happening increase too much. I don't think anyone expected Marshall to be much more than a 10 minute a game backup, and that only if he beat out Amile and Josh for the primary frontcourt backup duties.

A serious question: Why did everyone not expect Marshall to be more than a 10 minute backup? He has a year in the system, a year of weight training and is 7' tall. Both his brothers were starters for Duke. I don't understand the low expectations.

Dr. Rosenrosen
10-15-2012, 07:33 AM
A serious question: Why did everyone not expect Marshall to be more than a 10 minute backup? He has a year in the system, a year of weight training and is 7' tall. Both his brothers were starters for Duke. I don't understand the low expectations.
Rationalization... we're good at it here.

jipops
10-15-2012, 09:07 AM
As I mentioned in the Marshall Plumlee injury thread, I don't think this is something to get concerned about. It's easy to map out a rotation where Mason and Ryan are both on the floor for 20 minutes and each of them play center for 10 minutes with either Josh or Amile at PF. That would mean each of Mason and Ryan would play about 30 minutes, which is what I would expect of them with or without Marshall's injury.

Put another way, I expect Marshall, Josh, and Amile to split 20 minutes at C/PF. If Marshall is healthy, he'll get some of those 20 minutes. If he isn't healthy, then Amile and Josh will have to divvy up the 20 minutes amongst themselves. Doesn't really affect Mason or Ryan at all.

With Josh now up to about 240 this does seem plausible even though he is only about 6-7. I would think that when this is the case K would want to have 6-8 Jefferson and 6-8 Murphy joining him on the front line so we're not so small. If Sheed is out there in place of Murphy in this case, then we're looking kind of tiny and at a big disadvantage defensively. But hopefully this won't be too much more than about 5 minutes.

jimsumner
10-15-2012, 10:39 AM
A serious question: Why did everyone not expect Marshall to be more than a 10 minute backup? He has a year in the system, a year of weight training and is 7' tall. Both his brothers were starters for Duke. I don't understand the low expectations.

I think the 10 mpg expectation was for this season, a season in which Duke is starting a pair of 6-11 seniors with all-star potential at the post positions.

gumbomoop
10-15-2012, 11:11 AM
A serious question: Why did everyone not expect Marshall to be more than a 10 minute backup? He has a year in the system, a year of weight training and is 7' tall. Both his brothers were starters for Duke. I don't understand the low expectations.


I think the 10 mpg expectation was for this season, a season in which Duke is starting a pair of 6-11 seniors with all-star potential at the post positions.

Agree that the ~10 mpg expectation was for 2012-13 season only. In fact, preferably with or unfortunately without Austin Nichols' matriculation at Duke, I think the consensus expectation for Marshall P. would be more like ~25 mpg in 2013-14 season.

Kedsy
10-15-2012, 11:28 AM
Agree that the ~10 mpg expectation was for 2012-13 season only. In fact, preferably with or unfortunately without Austin Nichols' matriculation at Duke, I think the consensus expectation for Marshall P. would be more like ~25 mpg in 2013-14 season.

Yes, I'm sorry if I was unclear earlier. My expectation was certainly only for this season. Next season the hope/expectation is he would be a starter playing at least 25 minutes.

This season, as Jim Sumner mentioned, we have two all-conference talent big men who should both play ~30 minutes a game. This leaves only 20 big man minutes to be split among Marshall, Josh, and Amile. All three of these guys have talent, and while Josh is the shortest at 6'7", he also has the most experience, so it's not clear which of them would emerge as the primary backup for Mason and Ryan. If all three were healthy, my guess would be one would get around 10 mpg, one would get around 7 mpg and the other would get around 3 mpg. Thus my statement that Marshall wasn't generally expected to get more than 10 mpg.

Jackson
10-15-2012, 01:35 PM
I predict that Mason and Ryan will both play a minimum of 32 minutes per meaningful game. Amile, Marshall, and Josh will not IMO play significant minutes. Of those 3, I think Amile will have the best chance to have a breakthrough if nothing else just because not enough is known about him to discount his contribution this year. I REALLY hope that Alex can play the 3. I'm not one that likes the small ball that we were forced to do last year. I think losing Austin automatically makes us a better defensive team. Sulaimon, I don't believe will start, but maybe he can play time at 1, 2, and 3. I think him playing 20-25 minutes a game spelling, Cook, Murphy and Curry will be about the norm. Mason and Ryan as well as Curry should all have monster years. Things should only improve from last year. I'm really excited. I have always hoped that the Murphy to Singler comparisons will have more in common than just the jersey number. If that is the case, I don't see a limit. Sulaimon as a defensive stopper will be an upgrade over Rivers. Offensively, if the guys plays as a team and not four guys watching Austin go one on five and taking an off balance jumper.

CLW
10-15-2012, 04:00 PM
Well the ACC Coaches have spoken:

1. NC State (8) 139
2. Duke (3) 130
3. North Carolina (1) 124
4. Miami 104
5. Florida State 103
6. Maryland 78
7. Virginia 68
8. Clemson 61
9. Georgia Tech 40
10.t Virginia Tech 32
10.t Wake Forest 32
12. Boston College 25

http://espn.go.com/blog/north-carolina-basketball/post/_/id/10129/coaches-tab-ncsu-to-win-acc-unc-third

Cameron
10-15-2012, 06:52 PM
I'm with you. I agree that Amile and Josh will be solid players for us. I just think that not having the big guy for certain games and situations will cause us to need better team defense - something that Amile may not pick up as quickly. The Duke big men have a lot to learn when it comes to team defense - hedge and recover, guarding out to the 3 point line, jump or don't jump, help and recover, where and how to box out - and Amile will learn that. It just takes time. While Marshall certainly hasn't proven himself trained in that area, he was seven feet tall.

Not a game-changer, just sets our defensive progress back.

I can ultimately handle another foot injury, but if our players are now shrinking then I think Coach K really needs to address our recent string of ailments. This is getting ridiculous.

;)

Great points, though, especially regarding Amile. I am of the view that Marshall's injury, while terribly unfortunate, could actually help speed up Amile's learning curve by allowing him to compile more minutes at the four spot if Ryan is indeed called upon to spell Mason more frequently than would have been necessary with a healthy Marshall. With that said, it's hard to tell how many minutes Marshall actually would have logged early on in the season, so it's difficult to know if his absence will have any appreciable affect on the lineup at all. Although, as others have pointed out, the sudden lack of a seven-footer in practice to go neck-and-neck with Mason is certainly an unlucky development.

And, as you say, I think Josh can provide us some quality minutes as well as a scrappy 6'7, 240-pound frame with the ability to corral rebounds and bring an overall energy to the floor.

Cameron
10-15-2012, 08:08 PM
jcastranio,

Upon second look at my previous post, sorry if I put any words in your mouth re: Amile. Even though you agreed that Amile and Josh will be solid players for us, I obviously meant to attribute the points I made about Amile more to the poster you had quoted (Newton). I will blame that on the monster amount of beer I had while in Mexico in summer of 2010, even if that explanation is based in no amount of logic whatsoever.

jcastranio
10-15-2012, 09:24 PM
jcastranio,

Upon second look at my previous post, sorry if I put any words in your mouth re: Amile. Even though you agreed that Amile and Josh will be solid players for us, I obviously meant to attribute the points I made about Amile more to the poster you had quoted (Newton). I will blame that on the monster amount of beer I had while in Mexico in summer of 2010, even if that explanation is based in no amount of logic whatsoever.

I agree with you about Amile.

Billy Dat
10-25-2012, 01:04 PM
Looks like Seth Davis either has a man crush on Ryan or underestimates Mason:

Seth Davis ‏@SethDavisHoops
Disagree but most don't realize he is Duke's best player RT @Zonacats1: Ryan Kelly is going to win ACC player of the year.

Kedsy
10-25-2012, 01:10 PM
Looks like Seth Davis either has a man crush on Ryan or underestimates Mason:

Seth Davis ‏@SethDavisHoops
Disagree but most don't realize he is Duke's best player RT @Zonacats1: Ryan Kelly is going to win ACC player of the year.

I'm not Seth Davis, but I assume he means best all-around player, or most well-rounded player, or most versatile player. There is nobody on the team who can do all the things Ryan can do.