ACC 2012-13 standings predictions

[gumbomoop]

For a time last summer there was some early thinking about likely tiers in ACC 2012-13 in the "Looking Ahead to 2012-2013" thread. But it's several months later now, and even with enthusiasm over the football team's hopes, it seems an appropriate moment to start a thread on the upcoming ACC bball team predictions, standings, tiers, etc.

I think the top-half is pretty clear, though I will not be surprised if other posters eliminate some team that I list here and replace it with another. I will be surprised if other posters eliminate 2 of my top 6, adding 2 others.

Rather than listing all 12 in order, right now I'm interested in 2 issues:

(1) Is the top half pretty clear; i.e., is there an EK consensus on the 6 listed below, or, say, at least 5 of these 6?
(2) Is FSU being overrated, and Miami underrated, especially vis-a-vis each other?

(1) Top half: NCSt, Miami, Duke, UNC, FSU, Md [not in order, just top 6]. I assume all posters think Duke, NCSt, and UNC will be top 6 [probably top 3, in some order]. So, are Miami, FSU, and Md the other 3 in top half of conference?

(2) I'm much higher on Miami than either FSU or Md, so I personally have Miami in top 4. I'd be interested in anyone presenting an argument that either FSU or Md [or maybe UVa?] should be placed ahead of Miami. In terms of my own standard criteria for evaluating teams - talent, experience, depth - Miami seems clearly better than FSU, Md, UVa, and possibly good enough to challenge for top 2-3 in ACC. Here are links to Miami, FSU, Md, and UVa rosters for 2012-13:

Miami - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/2390/miami-fl-hurricanes

FSU - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/52/florida-state-seminoles

Md - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/120/maryland-terrapins

UVa - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/258/virginia-cavaliers

When I look at these rosters, Miami seems superior to the other 3, in terms of talent, experience, depth.

[gumbomoop]

Two thoughts here, based on recent developments and possibilities:

1. It's interesting that the ACC coaches place (barely) Miami ahead of FSU, whereas the ESPN/USA Today coaches poll has FSU in preseason top 25, giving Miami only 2 votes total. I continue to believe Miami is a better bet than FSU - in terms of what I know about each team's talent/experience/depth. But I now recognize that FSU has a whole bunch of new guys about whom I am clueless, including several real tall fellows. So it seems to me that FSU is more of a wild-card than is Miami, with a solid upside if any of the 7+ footers comes through. But right now, none of the 7+ footers has played a minute of DI ball. In terms of talent/experience/depth, Miami looks better. In terms of potential, FSU might have a higher ceiling.

2. Md may get a substantial boost, if Dez Wells is eligible immediately.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/65605/3-point-shot-terps-waiting-on-wells

[Duvall]

For a time last summer there was some early thinking about likely tiers in ACC 2012-13 in the "Looking Ahead to 2012-2013" thread. But it's several months later now, and even with enthusiasm over the football team's hopes, it seems an appropriate moment to start a thread on the upcoming ACC bball team predictions, standings, tiers, etc.

I think the top-half is pretty clear, though I will not be surprised if other posters eliminate some team that I list here and replace it with another. I will be surprised if other posters eliminate 2 of my top 6, adding 2 others.

Rather than listing all 12 in order, right now I'm interested in 2 issues:

(1) Is the top half pretty clear; i.e., is there an EK consensus on the 6 listed below, or, say, at least 5 of these 6?
(2) Is FSU being overrated, and Miami underrated, especially vis-a-vis each other?

(1) Top half: NCSt, Miami, Duke, UNC, FSU, Md [not in order, just top 6]. I assume all posters think Duke, NCSt, and UNC will be top 6 [probably top 3, in some order]. So, are Miami, FSU, and Md the other 3 in top half of conference?

(2) I'm much higher on Miami than either FSU or Md, so I personally have Miami in top 4. I'd be interested in anyone presenting an argument that either FSU or Md [or maybe UVa?] should be placed ahead of Miami. In terms of my own standard criteria for evaluating teams - talent, experience, depth - Miami seems clearly better than FSU, Md, UVa, and possibly good enough to challenge for top 2-3 in ACC. Here are links to Miami, FSU, Md, and UVa rosters for 2012-13:

Miami - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/2390/miami-fl-hurricanes

FSU - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/52/florida-state-seminoles

Md - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/120/maryland-terrapins

UVa - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/258/virginia-cavaliers

When I look at these rosters, Miami seems superior to the other 3, in terms of talent, experience, depth.

Florida State does have the best player on either roster in Michael Snaer, and its returning players have been part of winning teams, while Miami's really haven't.

Maryland probably shouldn't be put in the same category as the Florida schools.

[jimsumner]

My predictions are in print.

http://collegechalktalk.com/?p=2591

[Olympic Fan]

I think you could rank the top 5 in almost any order you want ... I think Maryland is the clearcut six -- a step behind the top five, but better than the teams in the next group (Virginia, Clemson and Georgia Tech). I like Boston College a clearcut 10th with VPI and Weak Forest battling it out for 11th.

[gumbomoop]

I think you could rank the top 5 in almost any order you want ... I think Maryland is the clearcut six -- a step behind the top five, but better than the teams in the next group (Virginia, Clemson and Georgia Tech). I like Boston College a clearcut 10th with VPI and Weak Forest battling it out for 11th.

A friendly demurral. I've just commented in the Featherston thread that some guesses, because "educated," are better than others, a bit, and sometimes a lot, more sensible as predictions.

So while I agree one "could" mix the top 5 somewhat, I'll disagree [quibble??] with the "almost any order." Can one actually make a logical-educated-guess that it will be this?

1. FSU
2. Miami
3. UNC
4. NCSt
5. Duke

You did say "almost." Clever Devil.

[gumbomoop]

Another superb article by Al Featherston on today's front page. Maybe it merits its own thread, but for now I'll just say he provides an "answer" to my own skepticism that FSU should be preseason ahead of Miami. His support for FSU agrees with Duvall's observation in post #3 this thread, and basically supports Olympic Fan's post #5 [where I think the "almost" is still relevant].

We learn that Feathrerston's was one of the 6 media votes for FSU as #1, though he also says that was a bit of a protest vote, out of respect for Coach Hamilton's teams being so often underrated.

More substantively, Featherston explains why FSU really belongs up there in the first [5-team] tier. i remain skeptical that FSU has the requisite experience and depth, but if White is as good as he claims, and the returning Shannon, too, well, ok, then I've underrated them a bit. No one doubts Snaer's multi-talents.

Also appreciate Featherston's skepticism about Jeff Goodman's comment re ?-marks for Duke and UNC. And I think his point highlights the lack of real knowledge about team rosters among national media.