Preseason All American predictions

[gumbomoop]

Sporting News offers its predictions.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2012-10-01/college-basketball-preseason-all-americans-2012-13-cody-zeller-james-michael-mac

I'm more than a little skeptical about this statement: "The Sporting News 2012-13 preseason All-American teams were selected by SN writers and editors, in consultation with coaches and scouts."

Am I to believe that any representative group of consulting coaches and scouts would have failed to insist that Aaron Craft merits inclusion somewhere on the first three teams? For that matter, wouldn't just a few of such consultants have nominated Craft as the best all-round player in college ball?

Although a McAdoo booster, I don't know that first team makes sense. Poythress as second team; I sure was disappointed that Poythress chose not to attend Duke, but second team? Sure am relieved Cody Zeller chose not to major in Swahili in CH.

[noworries]

mccollum on first team???

[Dev11]

Never forget, this is the greatest college achievement in Harrison Barnes's trophy case. It means very little.

[Jeff Frosh]

They must all be in the NBA. Is it me, or do these seem like pretty weak teams compared to years past?

[Olympic Fan]

Hey,

Lindy's preseason magazine projects McAdoo AND PJ Hairston (?!?!?) as first-team All-ACC picks.

Let them enjoy their preseason accoplades.

[Cameron]

Am I to believe that any representative group of consulting coaches and scouts would have failed to insist that Aaron Craft merits inclusion somewhere on the first three teams? For that matter, wouldn't just a few of such consultants have nominated Craft as the best all-round player in college ball?

Aaron Craft is a really fine player and vaunted defender, but tagging him as the best all-around player in college basketball would kind of be like having labled John Stockton the best all-around player in the NBA at any point of his career. In several categories, Stockton was the best in the game at what he did, period. That chiefly being setting up teammates as a point general and using his falcon-quick hands on the defensive end to create turnovers.

Craft is similarly talented in that he excels tremendously, almost to unparalleled levels, at certain areas of the game. He is the returning Big Ten defensive player of the year and is probably the most effective defender in the entire country. His presence as an on-the-ball defender is striking; he's a complete nightmare to play against. I might argue, however, that being a turnover-creating machine is much easier when your brand of defense is I'll-just-foul. Although I can't be certain, because Craft's body was so close to his defenders that in certain jurisdictions it might have been considered battery, there were several plays last year where it appeared that Craft engineered a steal by using a scalpel to remove his man's tendons. But that is pure speculation.

Despite his excellence on defense, Craft is far from one of the best offensive point guards in the country. He is a solid mid-range shooter, shooting over 55% from 2-PT range last season, but wildly inconsistent from the outside and only an average penetrator at best due to his small stature and lagging first step leading to a high percentage of his drives ending in blocked shots. Craft was able to benefit from the presence of All-American caliber scorers such as Willie Buford and Jared Sullinger as a solid catch-and-shoot threat the previous two years, but he is much less of a threat when asked to put the ball on the floor to create his own shot, so it remains to be seen how the departures of Craft's NBA-bound teammates and the increased defensive attention he will most certainly receive will affect his offensive game.

Moral of the story: I don't like Craft. Haha. But I do believe that while he's an elite defender, he is not an elite all-around player.

[CDu]

Totally agree with the questions about Poythress (who I do think will be one of the two best freshmen, but still) and McAdoo. I also agree with the point that Craft is correctly not on the list. I'd add that Deshaun Thomas seems like a questionable selection as well. I'd have put Canaan on the first team over McCollum. And I'd have had Lorenzo Brown on the list. And I'd have considered Mike Moser, Phil Pressey, Pierre Jackson, Michael Snaer, Andre Roberson, and perhaps even Gorgui Dieng.

That being said, there aren't a ton of returning players who are proven candidates, so I don't care all that much. And I especially don't care given that it is a meaningless honor. I suspect that the post-season All-American list will look dramatically different than this list.

[gumbomoop]

Aaron Craft is a really fine player and vaunted defender, but tagging him as the best all-around player in college basketball would kind of be like having labled John Stockton the best all-around player in the NBA at any point of his career. In several categories, Stockton was the best in the game at what he did, period. That chiefly being setting up teammates as a point general and using his falcon-quick hands on the defensive end to create turnovers.

Craft is similarly talented in that he excels tremendously, almost to unparalleled levels, at certain areas of the game. He is the returning Big Ten defensive player of the year and is probably the most effective defender in the entire country. His presence as an on-the-ball defender is striking; he's a complete nightmare to play against. I might argue, however, that being a turnover-creating machine is much easier when your brand of defense is I'll-just-foul. Although I can't be certain, because Craft's body was so close to his defenders that in certain jurisdictions it might have been considered battery, there were several plays last year where it appeared that Craft engineered a steal by using a scalpel to remove his man's tendons. But that is pure speculation.

Despite his excellence on defense, Craft is far from one of the best offensive point guards in the country. He is a solid mid-range shooter, shooting over 55% from 2-PT range last season, but wildly inconsistent from the outside and only an average penetrator at best due to his small stature and lagging first step leading to a high percentage of his drives ending in blocked shots. Craft was able to benefit from the presence of All-American caliber scorers such as Willie Buford and Jared Sullinger as a solid catch-and-shoot threat the previous two years, but he is much less of a threat when asked to put the ball on the floor to create his own shot, so it remains to be seen how the departures of Craft's NBA-bound teammates and the increased defensive attention he will most certainly receive will affect his offensive game.

Moral of the story: I don't like Craft. Haha. But I do believe that while he's an elite defender, he is not an elite all-around player.

Point(s) well taken. I won't count you among the coaches and scouts who think Craft is great all-round. And you definitely know a lot about Craft.

Admittedly, the shock of seeing - well, not seeing - Craft even 3d team preseason pushed me to maybe-hyperbole. I understand that, to you, there's no maybe about it. Perhaps I give him so many points for defensive ultra-prowess that I overlook his O-deficiencies. Even there I think he's better than you (think he is), but you're right that his game cannot depend on his creating shots for himself.

The short version - mine, and possibly yours - is that Craft is a much better D-player [effective, efficient, disruption] than is any player an O-player. Thus, I do not believe Craft is both top 5 on O and on D; but I can't think of anyone who is, so in this case "all-round" means, for me, someone who is spectacularly good on D [your words: "excels tremendously, almost to unparalleled levels," "striking," "complete nightmare"], and good enough on O.

I will be surprised if Craft isn't 1st-2d team pre All-Am in other pubs, online and otherwise.

[gumbomoop]

Totally agree with the questions about Poythress (who I do think will be one of the two best freshmen, but still) and McAdoo. I also agree with the point that Kraft is correctly not on the list.

Help. Translate, please.

(a) Craft should not be preseason All-Am, not even 3d team.

(b) Craft should be preseason All-Am, at least 3d team.

[CDu]

Help. Translate, please.

(a) Craft should not be preseason All-Am, not even 3d team.

(b) Craft should be preseason All-Am, at least 3d team.

"Correctly not on the list." In other words, "not on the list" and "correctly positioned as such." So (a) would be my answer.

I wouldn't put him among the top 15 players in the country. Defensively, he's easily top-5 (probably #1; hard to compare PG defense to post defense). Offensively, he's average-to-below-average in everything except wide open 3pt shots. So while he's on the VERY short list of elite defenders, I think the aggregate of both offense and defense puts him outside the top-15 for me.

[tommy]

So there are other freshmen on these lists, including another Kentucky freshman, but the #1 big man recruit in the country, going to Kentucky, expected to step into the shoes and be a reasonable facsimile of Anthony Davis, is nowhere being mentioned? I know there have been some off-season concerns, but still: Where is Nerlens Noel?

[gumbomoop]

So there are other freshmen on these lists, including another Kentucky freshman, but the #1 big man recruit in the country, going to Kentucky, expected to step into the shoes and be a reasonable facsimile of Anthony Davis, is nowhere being mentioned? I know there have been some off-season concerns, but still: Where is Nerlens Noel?

Somewhere with Aaron Craft, maybe.

[Cameron]

Point(s) well taken. I won't count you among the coaches and scouts who think Craft is great all-round. And you definitely know a lot about Craft.

Admittedly, the shock of seeing - well, not seeing - Craft even 3d team preseason pushed me to maybe-hyperbole. I understand that, to you, there's no maybe about it. Perhaps I give him so many points for defensive ultra-prowess that I overlook his O-deficiencies. Even there I think he's better than you (think he is), but you're right that his game cannot depend on his creating shots for himself.

The short version - mine, and possibly yours - is that Craft is a much better D-player [effective, efficient, disruption] than is any player an O-player. Thus, I do not believe Craft is both top 5 on O and on D; but I can't think of anyone who is, so in this case "all-round" means, for me, someone who is spectacularly good on D [your words: "excels tremendously, almost to unparalleled levels," "striking," "complete nightmare"], and good enough on O.

I will be surprised if Craft isn't 1st-2d team pre All-Am in other pubs, online and otherwise.

Fair enough. And your points are well taken as well. My position is not that I think Craft deserves omission from all of the pre-season All-American lists altogether -- even though I, personally, would not have him on any of them -- just that I have a problem with referring to him as the best "all-around" player in the nation. He has too many areas that need improvement offensively, in my view, to be called such. As an example -- maybe not a good one, I don't know -- even though Chris Duhon was a lockdown defender, probably the best on the perimeter as a senior, and excellent set-up man for his teammates, as well as my favorite Duke player of all-time, he probably never would have been mistaken as the most complete player in college basketball as a result of his steep decline as a jump shooter his last two years at Duke. (Though, when it mattered, Chris was one of the most clutch scorers to ever play in Durham.)

I will admit, though, that I am probably more critical of the kid than I should be due to a) being from Ohio and liking Ohio State as much as I do forgetting my hand was in the car door, b) all of the -- at least to me -- over-inflated worship he receives here, c) his under-your-skin cocky nature, and d) what happened to us while I was in attendance at the Duke-OSU game in the Schottenstein Center last November.

But I agree with you in that I think Craft will again be so dominant defensively and "good enough" offensively to land himself on one of these teams when the year is over.

[Mike Corey]

The assessment of Craft above is rather excellent. Elite defender. Above average offensive talent. And this from an OSU homer (me, not the poster above).

The same is true of his teammate, who did make the list. But that's because offensive prowess/potentail is more controlling in preseason missives like this. Thomas can score in bunches with a few bricks in between. He defends like a bunch of bricks.

By the end of this season, I suspect Mason Plumlee will be on one of these teams. That's when it counts, anyway; these lists are more for online preseason fodder than anything else. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[Dukehky]

I think the only Duke player whose got a shot at post-season is Ryan Kelly. I also think he's going to end up being a top 3 choice for ACC POY.

Just don't think Mase/the system is going to get to that level this year, hope he proves me wrong. Really, really hope he proves me wrong.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

mccollum on first team???

He certainly looked that good on March 16th.

[Cameron]

He certainly looked that good on March 16th.

Which is the only reason he is on this list. But, looking back, it is probably a good one. We were thoroughly demeaned.

[AZLA]

I think the only Duke player whose got a shot at post-season is Ryan Kelly. I also think he's going to end up being a top 3 choice for ACC POY.

Just don't think Mase/the system is going to get to that level this year, hope he proves me wrong. Really, really hope he proves me wrong.

Mason will be a beast this year

[jimsumner]

Which is the only reason he is on this list. But, looking back, it is probably a good one. We were thoroughly demeaned.

Well, he was the Patriot League Player of the Year.

[Cameron]

Well, he was the Patriot League Player of the Year.

Do you think without the 30 points he dropped on Duke in the tournament last year that the Patriot League Player of the Year would have been enough to vault him onto the preseason All-American first team? Honest question. I personally don't know. To be candid, that loss to Lehigh was the first time I had ever seen the kid play. There is no denying, as we all now know, the kid can play.

[noworries]

He certainly looked that good on March 16th.

true...just kinda surprising, and not to mention it brings back some not so great memories

[Jderf]

Mason will be a beast this year

Get. Mason. The ball.

[NSDukeFan]

Get. Mason. The ball.

I would assume that he has one, or has access to one until practice starts. ;)

[Jderf]

I would assume that he has one, or has access to one until practice starts. ;)

Then get him another one. Actually, get him two. I want that triple-dunk of his perfected by November. You never know when the team will need a quick six points.

[NSDukeFan]

Then get him another one. Actually, get him two. I want that triple-dunk of his perfected by November. You never know when the team will need a quick six points.

If he can consistently do that triple dunk, I would think finishing through contact should be relatively easy. That six point play could certainly come in handy at times, though.

[superdave]

The SN article linked to the All-Freshman team as well. It would not surprise me if Alex Murphy has an All-Freshmen team season.

Nerlens was projected to be All-Frosh for those wondering where he is. I suspect eligibility issues might have scared them from pushing onto the lists.

[JNort]

My first team would be:

Trey Burke
Aaron Craft
Doug McDermott
CJ Leslie
Cody Zeller

[jimsumner]

Michael Snaer has to be the most under-rated player in the country. He is the best returning player in the ACC. He was better last season than C.J. Leslie, Mason Plumlee, Lorenzo Brown, James Michael McAdoo, better than any ACC player not currently getting ready for an NBA season. A lock-down defender and a clutch scorer, as we found out the hard way.

My pre-season pick for ACC Player of the Year. And any ACC Player of the Year-level player has to be in the All-America mix.

[Native]

Michael Snaer has to be the most under-rated player in the country. He is the best returning player in the ACC. He was better last season than C.J. Leslie, Mason Plumlee, Lorenzo Brown, James Michael McAdoo, better than any ACC player not currently getting ready for an NBA season. A lock-down defender and a clutch scorer, as we found out the hard way.

My pre-season pick for ACC Player of the Year. And any ACC Player of the Year-level player has to be in the All-America mix.

+1000

Snaer's got all the right attributes. Can't believe everyone consistently overlooks him. Phenomenal player.

[JasonEvans]

If he can consistently do that triple dunk, I would think finishing through contact should be relatively easy. That six point play could certainly come in handy at times, though.

If you get fouled while attempting a triple dunk, how many FTs do you get?

-Jason "if Mason can hit 65% of his FTs, that would be a really nice bonus for Duke!" Evans

[CDu]

Michael Snaer has to be the most under-rated player in the country. He is the best returning player in the ACC. He was better last season than C.J. Leslie, Mason Plumlee, Lorenzo Brown, James Michael McAdoo, better than any ACC player not currently getting ready for an NBA season. A lock-down defender and a clutch scorer, as we found out the hard way.

My pre-season pick for ACC Player of the Year. And any ACC Player of the Year-level player has to be in the All-America mix.

Snaer has two big problems when it comes to these things:
1. He is not a very consistent offensive player. He's a spot shooter who can't dribble, doesn't draw fouls, and doesn't rebound very well for his size. When he's hot from 3pt range (which account for almost half his attempts), he's a star. But he scored less than 10 points 8 times last year (twice more he was right at 10).
2. His best attribute (defense) isn't easy to see, because he doesn't get steals or blocked shots.

I personally don't see him as an All-American caliber of player. Basically, I think some folks around here may be overrating him a bit based on his performances against us last year (and underrating guys like Brown and Leslie based on their performances against us last year). Snaer is definitely a good player, but I think that both Brown and Leslie were better last year.

[NSDukeFan]

CBS sports' Parrish and Goodman made their lists. I enjoyed the article, but am a bit surprised that McAdoo and Snaer only ACC representatives (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/storylist/20512719/1/2012-13-college-basketball-previews/cbssportscoms-all-americans-ius-zeller-tops-list) I think Leslie and Brown at NC State may deserve consideration, and of course Duke's seniors could all be considered, but I would rather they be on the year end list.
My favorite part of the whole column was one of the comments underneath:

theorb13

Shabazz Muhammad as first team? without playing a single game? how quickly the writers forget about the black hummingbird.

[greybeard]

Otto Porter, Georgetown. Keep your eye on this guy. He is special.