FB: Duke 42, Virginia 17

[OldPhiKap]

Great win, time to prove we are in it to win it. Any team that needs multiple nicknames is by definition insecure. RIP 'EM UP, TEAR 'EM UP, GIVE'M HELL DUKE!!!!

[Greg_Newton]

Certainly winnable - UVA has lost three in a row, including a 36-point loss at GT and home loss to (a probably underrated) Middle Tennessee today. They probably still have more talent on paper, but I wonder we might even be favored by the early lines?

[Greg_Newton]

...Middle Tennessee...

*sorry, La. Tech. It's hard to keep up with all of the ACC upsets today...

[House G]

*sorry, La. Tech. It's hard to keep up with all of the ACC upsets today...

La. Tech was a 3 1/2 point favorite.

[VAGentleman05]

La. Tech was a 3 1/2 point favorite.

Yep, this one went about the way most of us expected it today. Duke should be about a 6-point favorite next weekend. Should be an interesting and exciting game.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Let's Go DUKE!
Let's Go DUKE!
Let's Go DUKE!
Let's Go DUKE!
Let's Go DUKE!
Let's Go DUKE!
Let's Go DUKE!
http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/duke_bluedevil.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/duke_bluedevil.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/duke_bluedevil.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/duke_bluedevil.gif

[gep]

Favorite or not.... this is Duke's chance to keep the ball rolling.... 0-0 and starting to get crazy:cool:

GO DUKE!!!!!

[Greg_Newton]

Unfortunately, we'll be without August Campbell, who has left the team for personal reasons (???). I don't know what the story is, but it really hurts us, as DBs Braxton, Butler, Tavarez, Sowell and McCarthy are already out with injuries until we hear otherwise.

[peloton]

Favorite, schmavorite...we haven't proven to anyone that we can beat Coach London and his Cavs this season. As Desmond was essentially saying in his post game comments the team is 0-0 each weekend...they want to go 1-0 this coming Saturday. I'm hoping that we have a huge crowd because these guys certainly deserve the fans' support...especially considering the adversity we're (still) having to deal with in regard to injuries. In the past I've heard Duke fans either say or imply that they don't go to Duke football games because "we suck". Well, this team doesn't suck; far from it - they're making plays when they need to, displaying some serious determination, and are gaining the respect from other ACC institutions' fans as evidenced by comments on message boards. Let's demonstrate our support for Coach Cut and this team and appreciation for their efforts so far by having a great crowd against UVa.

Let's go Duke!!

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Unfortunately, we'll be without August Campbell, who has left the team for personal reasons (???). I don't know what the story is, but it really hurts us, as DBs Braxton, Butler, Tavarez, Sowell and McCarthy are already out with injuries until we hear otherwise.

I wish him the best, but it hurts the team. Maybe he'll come back next season.

[Jim3k]

I wish him the best, but it hurts the team. Maybe he'll come back next season.

Maybe. But he had been out with an upper body injury (not clearly specified). He had come off the injured list for Wake, but according to GoDuke's Participation Report in the Final Book (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPID=1843&DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=205701847) did not play .

He may simply be too banged up and he or his family are concerned about his reinjuring himself. Staff might think he's healthy enough to play. If that's the problem, it is his personal decision and maybe a perfectly good one. Of course, it might also be something unrelated to football--some kind of family matter.

In any event, whether injury-related or something else, since he didn't play at Wake it's hard to see how his withdrawal hurts the team any worse than his absence had in previous games.

I, too, wish him well.

[-bdbd]

Yep, this one went about the way most of us expected it today. Duke should be about a 6-point favorite next weekend. Should be an interesting and exciting game.


I did some Googling but could not find an active line on this game. Here's a couple sites to keep an eye on:
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegefootball/odds/spread
http://freepicks.picksandparlays.net/more-free-picks/college-football-week-6-saturday-10-6-12-schedule-times-television-schedule-betting-lines-and-totals/
I am very surprised to see UNC as a 3 point favorite over VPI at home. Hmmm.

As a northern Virginia resident we see a lot of UVA coverage, but in the last ten years it has become overwhelmingly Va Tech for FB coverage. And boy can you see the tide has changed on game day in northern VA, with many, many cars and homes now flying those VPI colors (I may be misremembering, but it seems to me 15 years ago you saw much more UVA colors everywhere). Anyway, the media up here seems very keen on the new UVA Head Coach, who was "promoted" from U of R, where he created a second-division powerhouse (and beat Duke). They have also had terrific recruiting success at Wahoo-U over the last two years. I have NO DOUBT that these kids will be coming into Durham with the clear expectation that they will win on Saturday, as will many/most of their fans. Yes, they have had a couple of close, disappointing losses this year, after a great (and surprising) ride to Bowl-dom last year. But many of the UVA fans I know have real disdain for Duke football, and are coming in this week expecting more of the same from us.

In any event, given the talent levels and recent history, I just do not see Duke being favored by 6. I expect it to be within 3 points either way. Most bettors still don't respect Duke on the FB field yet.

But can you just imagine... entering mid-October with only one loss on our slate. When was the last time THAT ever happened?? -- I'm sure that it has been decades... (!!!)

Go Duke!

:D


P.S. Any word on the status of Renfree's elbow?? That could have a real impact on the rest of our season's prospects.

[budwom]

I did some Googling but could not find an active line on this game. Here's a couple sites to keep an eye on:
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegefootball/odds/spread
http://freepicks.picksandparlays.net/more-free-picks/college-football-week-6-saturday-10-6-12-schedule-times-television-schedule-betting-lines-and-totals/
I am very surprised to see UNC as a 3 point favorite over VPI at home. Hmmm.

As a northern Virginia resident we see a lot of UVA coverage, but in the last ten years it has become overwhelmingly Va Tech for FB coverage. And boy can you see the tide has changed on game day in northern VA, with many, many cars and homes now flying those VPI colors (I may be misremembering, but it seems to me 15 years ago you saw much more UVA colors everywhere). Anyway, the media up here seems very keen on the new UVA Head Coach, who was "promoted" from U of R, where he created a second-division powerhouse (and beat Duke). They have also had terrific recruiting success at Wahoo-U over the last two years. I have NO DOUBT that these kids will be coming into Durham with the clear expectation that they will win on Saturday, as will many/most of their fans. Yes, they have had a couple of close, disappointing losses this year, after a great (and surprising) ride to Bowl-dom last year. But many of the UVA fans I know have real disdain for Duke football, and are coming in this week expecting more of the same from us.

In any event, given the talent levels and recent history, I just do not see Duke being favored by 6. I expect it to be within 3 points either way. Most bettors still don't respect Duke on the FB field yet.

But can you just imagine... entering mid-October with only one loss on our slate. When was the last time THAT ever happened?? -- I'm sure that it has been decades... (!!!)

Go Duke!

:D


P.S. Any word on the status of Renfree's elbow?? That could have a real impact on the rest of our season's prospects.

Good analysis. I can't imagine Duke being favored by more than 1-3 points, if that. And I suspect there's no early line yet due to uncertainty about Renfree. I like Boone as a young QB, but frankly we'll be definite underdogs if
Renfree can't play.

Cutcliffe says he's day to day, and Cutcliffe likes to play Secret Squirrel with our injuries and depth chart, so we may know nothing until Saturday afternoon.

[CameronBlue]

In the past I've heard Duke fans either say or imply that they don't go to Duke football games because "we suck". Well, this team doesn't suck; far from it - they're making plays when they need to, displaying some serious determination, and are gaining the respect from other ACC institutions' fans as evidenced by comments on message boards. Let's demonstrate our support for Coach Cut and this team and appreciation for their efforts so far by having a great crowd against UVa.

Let's go Duke!!

If ever a Duke team needed an emotional boost from its fanbase it's this one, at this time. Time for the fans to hoist the standard and sound the charge, I'm betting the troops will respond. (Okay boys, Cut says short straw gets to play safety this week.)

[-bdbd]

Once more demonstrating his hate-love relationship with his alma-mater, John Feinstein has an article up in today's Washington Post Sports section. The article is focusing on the bad weekend for DC-area college FB teams. After numerous paragraphs discussing how bag things have been locally, especially this past weekend, he has this little backhand for his old school:


"As for the area's FBS teams, their immediate futures appear murky at best."
"The best news for Virginia should be its schedule the next three weeks: at Duke, Maryland at home, and at Wake Forest. Duke is improved - it beat Wake for the first time in this century on Saturday - but it is still Duke. ...Wake Forest? Well, it lost to Duke at home. Enough said. The Cavaliers could easily win all three games."

Bulletin board anyone?

BTW, in discussing VPI's prospects later in the article he discusses their tougher upcoming slate, inserting into the middle this dig, "Virginia Tech's schedule is about as daunting as an ACC schedule can be - how daunting, fter all, can an ACC schedule be? The Hokies play at North Carolina, get a breather at home against Duke, and then go back on the road against Clemson and Miami..."

As I said before, they still don't respect us. Not until we start beating them.

Beat UVA, Duke.

[killerleft]

If ever a Duke team needed an emotional boost from its fanbase it's this one, at this time. Time for the fans to hoist the standard and sound the charge, I'm betting the troops will respond. (Okay boys, Cut says short straw gets to play safety this week.)

Are you a Duke fan who's been waiting on a meaningful game to show your support in person? Here it is!! Our depth has been exposed, and the guys have kept on winning. This game is huge for Duke. A big crowd could very well spell the difference.

Come out, come out, wherever you are:D

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Beating UVa a few years ago was a big game for the program. The game this coming Saturday could be a second big game for a win over Virginia.;)

[OldPhiKap]

Once more demonstrating his hate-love relationship with his alma-mater, John Feinstein has an article up in today's Washington Post Sports section. The article is focusing on the bad weekend for DC-area college FB teams. After numerous paragraphs discussing how bag things have been locally, especially this past weekend, he has this little backhand for his old school:


"As for the area's FBS teams, their immediate futures appear murky at best."
"The best news for Virginia should be its schedule the next three weeks: at Duke, Maryland at home, and at Wake Forest. Duke is improved - it beat Wake for the first time in this century on Saturday - but it is still Duke. ...Wake Forest? Well, it lost to Duke at home. Enough said. The Cavaliers could easily win all three games."

Bulletin board anyone?

BTW, in discussing VPI's prospects later in the article he discusses their tougher upcoming slate, inserting into the middle this dig, "Virginia Tech's schedule is about as daunting as an ACC schedule can be - how daunting, fter all, can an ACC schedule be? The Hokies play at North Carolina, get a breather at home against Duke, and then go back on the road against Clemson and Miami..."

As I said before, they still don't respect us. Not until we start beating them.

Beat UVA, Duke.

Let folks keep thinking we're "the same old Duke" until we pin a big "L" on them.

Can't say this is surprising, and given our history I can't say it is undeserved. But none of our wins this year were flukes -- and they are all games we would have lost in years past.

Baby steps. Beat Virginia.

[75Crazie]

But none of our wins this year were flukes -- and they are all games we would have lost in years past.
Agreed. However, I would also say that none of our wins this year are particularly notable (except for the internal satisfaction of finally beating Wake). This is probably Wake's weakest team in years, just judging from results so far. The FIU win might actually be the most notable -- and that final score belied the even nature of the line play of the two teams. If we somehow beat the Hoos to win two league games in a row, then I might start getting impressed.

[OldPhiKap]

Agreed. However, I would also say that none of our wins this year are particularly notable (except for the internal satisfaction of finally beating Wake). This is probably Wake's weakest team in years, just judging from results so far. The FIU win might actually be the most notable -- and that final score belied the even nature of the line play of the two teams. If we somehow beat the Hoos to win two league games in a row, then I might start getting impressed.

I think I am a bit further down the "impressed" train rail than you are, although your position is not without justification. I will say, however, that we were underdogs and got a road win under our belt already -- never easy. And we looked pretty good doing it, I think.

My biggest concern with this weekend is our injury list. Getting mighty long.

[budwom]

Agreed. However, I would also say that none of our wins this year are particularly notable (except for the internal satisfaction of finally beating Wake). This is probably Wake's weakest team in years, just judging from results so far. The FIU win might actually be the most notable -- and that final score belied the even nature of the line play of the two teams. If we somehow beat the Hoos to win two league games in a row, then I might start getting impressed.

I'm very happy about the season thus far, and look forward to being at the UVA game this Saturday. But to say we wouldn't have won the NCCU and Memphis games in the past is simply not so.
Both those teams are absolutely horrible. Last year we pounded a similarly bad team, Tulane.
But certainly Wake is a game we would have found a way to lose in the past, and FIU is probably in that category as well.

[arnie]

I'm very happy about the season thus far, and look forward to being at the UVA game this Saturday. But to say we wouldn't have won the NCCU and Memphis games in the past is simply not so.
Both those teams are absolutely horrible. Last year we pounded a similarly bad team, Tulane.
But certainly Wake is a game we would have found a way to lose in the past, and FIU is probably in that category as well.

Agree with this assessment - NCCU and Memphis are teams that Roof/Franks would have likely beaten; but would not have beaten WF or FIU. If we win this weekend, I think we take out at least one moire team and get our 6+ wins. If we don't, its doubtful we go bowling.

[awhom111]

Here are the television affiliates for the game:
http://www.theacc.com/live/2012-acc-football-match-center-virginia-at-duke.html

The game will also be on ESPN3.

[nyesq83]

DUKE 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS
PASSING YARDS
304.0 24th Overall
RUSHING YARDS
114.8 111th Overall
POINTS FOR
37.0 32nd Overall
POINTS AGAINST
26.8 69th Overall

FIU 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS
PASSING YARDS
222.6 72nd Overall
RUSHING YARDS
146.4 82nd Overall
POINTS FOR
25.6 80th Overall
POINTS AGAINST
38.6 112th Overall

Memphis 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS
PASSING YARDS
179.3 113th Overall
RUSHING YARDS
121.5 102nd Overall
POINTS FOR
22.3 102nd Overall
POINTS AGAINST
34.8 105th Overall

Wake Forest 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS
PASSING YARDS
218.2 75th Overall
RUSHING YARDS
133.6 89th Overall
POINTS FOR
24.8 87th Overall
POINTS AGAINST
33.4 100th Overall

STANFORD 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS They are Ranked 18th with these stats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PASSING YARDS
197.8 98th Overall
RUSHING YARDS
128.0 94th Overall
POINTS FOR
26.0 74th Overall
POINTS AGAINST
15.3 21st Overall

NC CENTRAL 2-2 1st in the MEAC (no stats)


VIRGINIA 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS
PASSING YARDS
298.4 27th Overall
RUSHING YARDS
124.6 99th Overall
POINTS FOR
25.0 84th Overall
POINTS AGAINST
32.4 95th Overall

[budwom]

The stats are interesting, but the teams have played widely varying schedules. Virginia's schedule has been MUCH tougher than Duke's, though obviously they've lost more games.

A decent metric at this point of the season is the Sagarin ratings, which have Duke at # 86 and UVA at 85....though Virginia's strength of schedule is 23rd, Duke's 159. So I wouldn't pay too much attention
to the respective records.

Duke has beaten #128 (FIU), Memphis (173) , NCCU (232) and Wake (110). We lost to Stanford (14).

UVA has beaten Richmond (139), Penn St (36), and lost to TCU (15) GTech (61 and LaTech (51).

Duke is a 2.5 point favorite, which sounds about right for evenly matched teams playing in Derm.

There will be nothing easy about this game.

[roywhite]

The stats are interesting, but the teams have played widely varying schedules. Virginia's schedule has been MUCH tougher than Duke's, though obviously they've lost more games.

A decent metric at this point of the season is the Sagarin ratings, which have Duke at # 86 and UVA at 85....though Virginia's strength of schedule is 23rd, Duke's 159. So I wouldn't pay too much attention
to the respective records.

Duke has beaten #128 (FIU), Memphis (173) , NCCU (232) and Wake (110). We lost to Stanford (14).

UVA has beaten Richmond (139), Penn St (36), and lost to TCU (15) GTech (61 and LaTech (51).

Duke is a 2.5 point favorite, which sounds about right for evenly matched teams playing in Derm.

There will be nothing easy about this game.

Saw the 'Hoos in person earlier in the season, when they beat Penn State 17-16; the Penn State kicker went 1-5 on Field Goals to snatch defeat from victory, but that's another story.

A few impressions about UVa's team:

Mike Rocco is a good QB; good size, good arm, mostly stays in the pocket, but can move around a bit and is not easy to bring down; Rocco did turn the ball over a few times when I saw him
Virginia, at least at that point in the season, was not very good running the ball; they struggle to make holes, and the running backs are nothing special.
They have a decent pass rush; like to use a variety of blitzes, and like to bring safeties and corner bakcs on blitzes occasionally
The Virginia defense overall is nothing special; if Duke can protect the passer, should be able to get receivers open, and should be some running room
They have a pretty good kicking game, both punting and FG kicking

I would agree with the betting line, and Budwom's observations; fairly even contest, and Duke definitely can win with a good effort.

[budwom]

Good info, Roy. I kind of prefer opponents who have less mobile QBs....we seem to have problems with fleet footed QBs who can take off the receivers are covered.
If Renfree is healthy, this should be an entertaining game.

[Duvall]

Saw the 'Hoos in person earlier in the season, when they beat Penn State 17-16; the Penn State kicker went 1-5 on Field Goals to snatch defeat from victory, but that's another story.

A few impressions about UVa's team:

Mike Rocco is a good QB; good size, good arm, mostly stays in the pocket, but can move around a bit and is not easy to bring down; Rocco did turn the ball over a few times when I saw him.

Rocco probably won't be starting Saturday. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cavaliers-journal/post/phillip-sims-will-be-virginias-starting-qb-at-duke-if-healthy/2012/10/02/08e14fe4-0c92-11e2-bd1a-b868e65d57eb_blog.html)

[CameronBornAndBred]

It seems like Duke might be facing a change up in UVA's offense...specifically more air oriented. Cockrell must be licking his lips.

“That’s one of the things we talk about: where do you go from here, what are you looking at, personnel and things like that, and finding out what we do best,” London said earlier Monday. “We want to run the ball, but what do we do best in terms of moving the ball and with who in terms of the personnel?”
Personnel changes aren’t the only thing London might be contemplating.
Virginia opened up its playbook in the 44-38 loss to Louisiana Tech and the Cavaliers’ sudden offensive firepower seemed to suggest that they should consider airing the ball out more often.
http://www.accsports.com/wires/2012100113561/virginias-best-option-might-be-wide-open-offense.php

[noworries]

Rocco probably won't be starting Saturday. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cavaliers-journal/post/phillip-sims-will-be-virginias-starting-qb-at-duke-if-healthy/2012/10/02/08e14fe4-0c92-11e2-bd1a-b868e65d57eb_blog.html)

That should be how it is...Rocco has been so turnover prone this year and Sims hasn't got much of a chance to get in the flow of things, getting a few drives at a time here and there. From as talented as everyone says he is, I'm interested to see how he does. Was hoping this one was in Charlottesville so I could check it out!

[Greg_Newton]

So, am I crazy to think that Jela Duncan has been good enough to warrant refocusing our offense around him?

Seems like I must be overreacting, but 6.83 YPC is incredible. I'd like to see him get 15-20 touches on Saturday, if he can handle the workload; not only would it open up other aspects of the offense, but letting Duncan run also kind of seems like our most reliable offensive play right now (which is certainly not something you could have said about any of our RBs for a while!). Very exciting to have a player of his caliber emerging in our program.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

So, am I crazy to think that Jela Duncan has been good enough to warrant refocusing our offense around him?

Seems like I must be overreacting, but 6.83 YPC is incredible. I'd like to see him get 15-20 touches on Saturday, if he can handle the workload; not only would it open up other aspects of the offense, but letting Duncan run also kind of seems like our most reliable offensive play right now (which is certainly not something you could have said about any of our RBs for a while!). Very exciting to have a player of his caliber emerging in our program.

Duncan has been fantastic and shows great promise! I'd like to see Josh Snead get that number of carries too. He's as fast, or faster than Duncan! :cool:

[OldPhiKap]

So, am I crazy to think that Jela Duncan has been good enough to warrant refocusing our offense around him?

Seems like I must be overreacting, but 6.83 YPC is incredible. I'd like to see him get 15-20 touches on Saturday, if he can handle the workload; not only would it open up other aspects of the offense, but letting Duncan run also kind of seems like our most reliable offensive play right now (which is certainly not something you could have said about any of our RBs for a while!). Very exciting to have a player of his caliber emerging in our program.

Jela has been a real eye-opener. I always like seeing him come in.

[Newton_14]

Duncan has been fantastic and shows great promise! I'd like to see Josh Snead get that number of carries too. He's as fast, or faster than Duncan! :cool:

Agree. I guess you and I are the only two members of the Josh Snead fan club but he needs more carries. I do like Duncan also. Duncan is a better power runner up the gut, in addition to having good speed, but Josh has the kind of speed where he is always a threat to break open a long run, and take it to the house. Josh is easily the fastest RB on the team using the eye test in games. Josh and Jela make a great tandem in our backfield, and their level of play thus far has to give Cut and Roper pause to consider running the ball more often. Even with decent blocking those two guys can do some damage. I was a little worried when we moved Desmond to WR, but man has that plan ever worked out perfectly.

[OldPhiKap]

Agree. I guess you and I are the only two members of the Josh Snead fan club but he needs more carries. I do like Duncan also. Duncan is a better power runner up the gut, in addition to having good speed, but Josh has the kind of speed where he is always a threat to break open a long run, and take it to the house. Josh is easily the fastest RB on the team using the eye test in games. Josh and Jela make a great tandem in our backfield, and their level of play thus far has to give Cut and Roper pause to consider running the ball more often. Even with decent blocking those two guys can do some damage. I was a little worried when we moved Desmond to WR, but man has that plan ever worked out perfectly.

1. Put me down for the Josh Club, too.

2. Time to update your sig line. ;-)

[duke09hms]

Rocco probably won't be starting Saturday. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cavaliers-journal/post/phillip-sims-will-be-virginias-starting-qb-at-duke-if-healthy/2012/10/02/08e14fe4-0c92-11e2-bd1a-b868e65d57eb_blog.html)

Unfortunately, I don't think that's a good thing for us. I'd much rather have the turnover-prone Rocco than the Phil Sims, a former elite Alabama QB recruit who transferred to UVA for family reasons. Kid led a comeback last week that just fell short, 10-17 for 166, 2 TDs, 0 ints.

Hope our hobbled secondary is up to the task on Saturday.

UVA has been tearing it up in recruiting the last couple years too.

[DukeSean]

Agree. I guess you and I are the only two members of the Josh Snead fan club but he needs more carries. I do like Duncan also. Duncan is a better power runner up the gut, in addition to having good speed, but Josh has the kind of speed where he is always a threat to break open a long run, and take it to the house. Josh is easily the fastest RB on the team using the eye test in games. Josh and Jela make a great tandem in our backfield, and their level of play thus far has to give Cut and Roper pause to consider running the ball more often. Even with decent blocking those two guys can do some damage. I was a little worried when we moved Desmond to WR, but man has that plan ever worked out perfectly.

I like both, but what I really like about Duncan is his patience. That's what sets him apart for me. He has the patience to wait for the blocks to line up and the holes to open up before he hits them or cuts back. It's even more surprising that he's a true freshman, cause those skills usually come with more experience.

[loran16]

So, am I crazy to think that Jela Duncan has been good enough to warrant refocusing our offense around him?

Seems like I must be overreacting, but 6.83 YPC is incredible. I'd like to see him get 15-20 touches on Saturday, if he can handle the workload; not only would it open up other aspects of the offense, but letting Duncan run also kind of seems like our most reliable offensive play right now (which is certainly not something you could have said about any of our RBs for a while!). Very exciting to have a player of his caliber emerging in our program.
Remember most of those yards came against horrid run defenses

[Greg_Newton]

I'm certainly a fan of feeding the Snead, too. I just like Duncan more as an every down, between the tackles-type back because he seems more consistent - less explosive in the open field, but less likely to get stopped for no gain if the o-line doesn't open up a great hole. He's so powerful and is so good at getting yards after the 1st/2nd/3rd tackler that I generally feel like that giving him the ball will result in a positive outcome.

Fair point about the quality of run defenses, though. I don't imagine that Wake is quite as bad as the numbers suggest, given that they've played FSU, UNC and Army, but hopefully he'll be able to sustain his success. If he can even just reliably get 4-5 yards on most carries against middling ACC teams, it would be huge for us.

[brianl]

My Wife is a UVA Alum and we live relatively close to C-Ville. That being said, I've attended all of their home games this season (not planned just worked out that way).

They easily handled an unmotivated Richmond team to open the season. They were given the Penn State win.

Against La tech, they were rolling until the middle of the second quarter when London tried an on-side kick after scoring to go up 24-3. tech recovered, marched down and scored and never looked back. In the second half, Tech added a screen pass to the right side and exploited it all afternoon. Virginia made it close late, but they were not the same team in the second half.

This week should be interesting as I believe Phillip Simms is starting over Rocco. The news media in C-ville has been trying to create a QB controversy since he arrived there. His passes are much crisper and he puts more zip on the ball than Rocco's traditional "floaters." He looks fast, but doesn't appear to like to run, (or get his uniform dirty).

They have two outstanding Tight ends, (88 and 89) one in particular (#89?) who has made some pretty impressive catches this year. He seems to be Roc's go to guy in a pinch as I've seen him easily out jump every defender put on him. The tight ends are looked at more on 3rd down than the receivers. The WR corp is not as impressive as ours, they don't run well after the catch.

They like to run, but are much more impressive at the short passing game. I haven't seen Duke in person this year, but from what I read, this should be about as evenly matched team that Duke has played this year.

[BlueHoo]

I’ve been to all the home games in Charlottesville this year and have a few observations about the Hoo’s. Although the record of 2-3 isn’t good, ball security and turnovers have contributed to these losses. With Sims replacing Rocco at QB, ball security should be improved. Sims seems to be more efficient and although both have around 61% completion rate, Sims has 5 TD with 0 interceptions, while Rocco has had only 6TD with 100 more passing attempts. UVa plays a timing-based offense and Sims has needed time to get comfortable with the playbook. Jamming the receivers at the line of scrimmage to interrupt the timing of the pass could help Duke. The Hoo’s ground game has been anemic this year, in contrast to a good running game last year, especially from Park and Jones. I think they will try and get the backs more involved and open up the receivers for Sims. Of note, UVa also may have a few injured players coming back.

I think this will be a close and exciting game. Can’t wait….

[DukeSean]

2-3 isn't good, but honestly UVA should be 1-4. PSU was a giveaway.

I watched the archives of Sims in the GT, TCU, and LaTech games, and while it's hard to make any statements about him as a QB, here's a couple thoughts:

1. He's a mobile quarterback. He has the ability to scramble and make tacklers miss, so that will be a point of concern for us. We've done a good job of getting to the QB in our games, but sometimes have trouble containing a scrambling QB. We will need to contain him in the pocket or Sims will do some damage

2. He's not a terribly accurate thrower. He misses badly at times, even with protection. Most of those end up being too low at hitting the WRs feet, which would account for the lack of INTs at this point. He's also lucky in that department: at least two-three defenders dropped likely INTs. I wouldn't put too much weight into his TD/INT ratio at this point. He did show great touch on a 40yd pass over the top of the safeties against TCU. He did look better against LaTech than the other games, so maybe he's getting progressively better in the accuracy department.

3. He can really throw with some zip.

4. He doesn't really look off receivers. He locks into the primary receiver, and if that option isn't open, he will scramble. If Cockrell will watch Sims' eyes, he might get a pick or two.

I know our DBs can cover. That might give us some coverage sacks on Saturday. But again, we need to be careful to contain the scramble. If not, there will be some 3rd-and-longs that turn into 1st downs with Sims' feet.

[watzone]

Ross Cockrell and Tony Foster, Duke DB's, talk UVA - http://bluedevilnation.net/2012/10/duke-dbs-ross-cockrell-and-tony-foster-talk-uva-game/

Anthony Boone and Nick Sink do the same http://bluedevilnation.net/2012/10/duke-qb-anthony-boone-and-dl-nick-sink-talk-uva/

But the best link is a Duke-UVA preview with Patrick and UVA beat writer Jerry Ratcliffe http://bluedevilnation.net/2012/10/know-the-opponent-virginia-cavaliers/ who braks down the Hoos' from a educated perspective.

Big game, big turnout needed.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Big game, big turnout needed.

Got this in my email a few minutes ago.


Blue Devil Fans,
Duke football is 3-0 at home this season and averaging over 40 points per game. The team kicks off its home ACC schedule this Saturday against Virginia at 3 p.m. and needs you, your family, friends, neighbors and co-workers there to help us fill Wallace Wade Stadium.
Please click here (http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?id=1065435&db_oem_id=4200) for a special message from Duke head football coach David Cutcliffe.
Besides the Virginia game, the Blue Devils also host UNC (October 20th), Clemson (November 3rd) and Miami (November 24th) in Wallace Wade Stadium. Special three and four-game mini-plans and individual game tickets remain on sale at www.goduke.com/tickets (http://www.goduke.com/tickets) or by calling 919-681-BLUE!
Hope to see you there on Saturday vs. Virginia! Come early, be loud and wear your Duke Blue!
Go Duke!




Hoping to see Wallace Wade looking respectably filled on Saturday. The weather is supposed to be beautiful and Duke is enjoying a special season, I'm hoping that the improvement on the field will equal more fans in the stands..I think it will. GO DUKE!!

[Reilly]

Got this in my email a few minutes ago.


Hoping to see Wallace Wade looking respectably filled on Saturday. The weather is supposed to be beautiful and Duke is enjoying a special season, I'm hoping that the improvement on the field will equal more fans in the stands..I think it will. GO DUKE!!

With respect to turnout, the ticket site at goduke.com now lets you pick your individual seat and see what's available. When you mouse over a section, it'll say -- in stubhub fasion -- "438 tickets available" or whatever for that section. If I'm recalling correctly, I believe I rough counted about 4K tix available in looking at the sections yesterday. Of course, a different question is whether the 29K that the site is saying are unavailable will actually be used.

[CameronBornAndBred]

With respect to turnout, the ticket site at goduke.com now lets you pick your individual seat and see what's available. When you mouse over a section, it'll say -- in stubhub fasion -- "438 tickets available" or whatever for that section. If I'm recalling correctly, I believe I rough counted about 4K tix available in looking at the sections yesterday. Of course, a different question is whether the 29K that the site is saying are unavailable will actually be used.

That's incredibly encouraging.

[Olympic Fan]

A small point that bugs me. I know coaches have trouble with opposing players names -- they deal in numbers not names. But you'd think Mike London would know the name of the leading receiver in ACC history.

But Monday during his press conference, he was talking about Duke and he noted how important that No. 2 "I think his name is Varner" is for Duke.

Okay, an easy slip to make Donovan Varner played alongside Conner Vernon for three seasons.

But London did it again Wednesday on the ACC Teleconference. Not once, but twice he confused Vernon with Varner ... at one point he said, "It seems like Renfree and Varner have been there forever."

I know it's petty of me, but I hope that Conner can give him good reason to remember his name this week.

As for Saturday's crowd -- the team has earned some support. I can understand bailing on a bunch of stumblebums headed for another 3-9 season, but these guys have overcome so much adversity to put themselves in position to earn a bowl berth. Give them the home field they deserve.

The part that worries me the most is the student section -- it's been thin all season. No excuse not to turn out in force -- with a 3 p.m. start, they don't have to get up early and they'll still have all Saturday night for partying!

[Reilly]

... he was talking about Duke and he noted how important that No. 2 "I think his name is Varner" is for Duke.

Okay, an easy slip to make Donovan Varner played alongside Conner Vernon for three seasons.

But London did it again Wednesday on the ACC Teleconference. Not once, but twice he confused Vernon with Varner ... at one point he said, "It seems like Renfree and Varner have been there forever."

I know it's petty of me, but I hope that Conner can give him good reason to remember his name this week....

Bulletin board material. A year or two ago, the Ravens used "What's my name?" as a slogan. It was borrowed from an incident where Muhammed Ali was going into a fight, and his opponent refused to call him by the name Ali and said Ali would always be "Cassius Clay" to him.

Apparently, Muhammed kept screaming "What's my name?" as he pummeled the guy throughout the fight.

All good bulletin board material is about respect and feelings of disrespect. That has fueled Duke/Virginia for a long time now, from George Welsh and Spurrier to last year when #13 was dissing Cut and Cut was livid and let London know about it at the post-game handshake.

Virginia was so down for so long in football from the 50s to 1980 that they like looking haughtily down at those they can (given VT pummels them), so they try to do it w/ Duke football. I remember tailgating before a UVa/VT football game in the fall of '98 and some old UVa codger -- when told I was a Duke grad -- said "heh, they play football at Duke, heh, heh (cough, phlegm, cough)" and I said "well, not very well recently, but we play basketball, so make sure that third light bulb is working at UHall when we come to town this year b/c we're hanging three digits on you" (this was leading into the 98/99 season, and we did). Loved hearing all the C'ville radio yokels going on and on about how bad Duke football was before the 99 game .. and we beat them there.

[sagegrouse]

Bulletin board material. A year or two ago, the Ravens used "What's my name?" as a slogan. It was borrowed from an incident where Muhammed Ali was going into a fight, and his opponent refused to call him by the name Ali and said Ali would always be "Cassius Clay" to him.

Apparently, Muhammed kept screaming "What's my name?" as he pummeled the guy throughout the fight.

.

It was February 6, 1967 in Houston against WBA champ Ernie Terrell. Terrell had won the WBA championship when Ali agreed to a rematch with Sonny Liston. Ali remained the WBC and Ring Magazine champ. I believe the taunting occurred in round 15, after the issue was decided.

sagegrouse

[Duke of Nashville]

Bulletin board material. A year or two ago, the Ravens used "What's my name?" as a slogan. It was borrowed from an incident where Muhammed Ali was going into a fight, and his opponent refused to call him by the name Ali and said Ali would always be "Cassius Clay" to him.

Apparently, Muhammed kept screaming "What's my name?" as he pummeled the guy throughout the fight.

All good bulletin board material is about respect and feelings of disrespect. That has fueled Duke/Virginia for a long time now, from George Welsh and Spurrier to last year when #13 was dissing Cut and Cut was livid and let London know about it at the post-game handshake.

Virginia was so down for so long in football from the 50s to 1980 that they like looking haughtily down at those they can (given VT pummels them), so they try to do it w/ Duke football. I remember tailgating before a UVa/VT football game in the fall of '98 and some old UVa codger -- when told I was a Duke grad -- said "heh, they play football at Duke, heh, heh (cough, phlegm, cough)" and I said "well, not very well recently, but we play basketball, so make sure that third light bulb is working at UHall when we come to town this year b/c we're hanging three digits on you" (this was leading into the 98/99 season, and we did). Loved hearing all the C'ville radio yokels going on and on about how bad Duke football was before the 99 game .. and we beat them there.

Speaking of talking some trash...

http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/10/04/2388502/bigger-and-better-duke-football.html

I hope Conner lets London hear it when he breaks the record and when Duke beats the....who? are we playing again?

[DukeSean]

Doing my part to send this back to the top.

About 24hrs to kickoff! GO DUKE! BEAT UVA!

[Bob Green]

Doing my part to send this back to the top.

About 24hrs to kickoff! GO DUKE! BEAT UVA!

Virginia's injury report is full of defensive players:

VIRGINIA

PROBABLE

OT Oday Aboushi (upper extremity)

DT Will Hill (medical)

S Brandon Phelps (upper extremity)

DOUBTFUL

WR Tim Smith (lower extremity)

OUT

DE Billy Schautz (lower extremity)

DT Buddy Ruff (medical)

S Darius Lee (lower extremity)

OUT FOR THE SEASON

S Pablo Alvarez

LB Adam Caplinger

DT Marco Jones

S David Marrs

WR Mario Nixon

[Duke of Nashville]

Back to the top....

Feeling pretty optimistic about the showing of Duke Blue in the stands tomorrow. I hope the home crowd can give the Devils some extra mojo on the field. Let's Go Duke!

#DukeGang

[DukeSean]

Well, now that my Rangers have once again collapsed, I can focus 100% on Duke Football. Thanks to the wide world of sports, there's always something to root for. Which makes me glad. And makes my wife sad. ;-)

[Dev11]

So now I can stay on the couch. Here we go DUKE!

[peloton]

Beautiful fall weather in NC...a Duke team that's got some truly skilled players and playing with serious determination...absolutely huge game for our guys as this victory would of course make them 5-1(!)...Connor Vernon will almost assuredly become the ACC's all time receptions leader in this game...how can you not want to be a part of this historic day in historic Wallace Wade Stadium? LET'S GO DUKE!!! Let's kick some Wahoo hiney!! We're Durham bound!! Save me some 'cue, TBCC!

[peloton]

Don't do it, Dev11! You can probably still fly out in time for the game! :D But seriously, enjoy the game. My family was in Colorado for the first time recently for a family reunion more or less...beautiful country to say the least. We stayed at Mt. Princeton Hot Springs resort in Nathrop for a few days and other towns also. Unfortunately we didn't get a chance to spend any time in Denver, just drove through it on the highway. We did get a chance to spend some time hiking & sightseeing in the mountains...would like to go back someday.

[Dev11]

Don't do it, Dev11! You can probably still fly out in time for the game! :D But seriously, enjoy the game. My family was in Colorado for the first time recently for a family reunion more or less...beautiful country to say the least. We stayed at Mt. Princeton Hot Springs resort in Nathrop for a few days and other towns also. Unfortunately we didn't get a chance to spend any time in Denver, just drove through it on the highway. We did get a chance to spend some time hiking & sightseeing in the mountains...would like to go back someday.

The only thing that dulls the scenery is the lack of Duke games. It's ok, that's why they invented the internet.

[DukeSean]

Predictions?

31-17 DUKE!

Beat UVA!

[duke09hms]

Anyplace to watch this online? It's on ESPN3 but that is blacked out in ACC country (retarded).

[OldPhiKap]

Anyplace to watch this online? It's on ESPN3 but that is blacked out in ACC country (retarded).

Check www.theacc.com and see if there is a link.

[mjones723]

Absolutely kills me that I can't be there today. Sitting in Duke South working all night. :(

[DukeSean]

Anyplace to watch this online? It's on ESPN3 but that is blacked out in ACC country (retarded).

Maybe use a web proxy?

[DU82]

Boone announced as starting QB

[6th Man]

Just announced Boone as starter on scoreboard.

[wilson]

Just announced Boone as starter on scoreboard.Hmmm...hope the boys prove me wrong and rise to the occasion.

[Dev11]

Just announced Boone as starter on scoreboard.

Wonder how much Renfree we'll see. This is going to be an interesting one.

[OldPhiKap]

Time to get it done!

[Dev11]

Wonder how much Renfree we'll see. This is going to be an interesting one.

They just said on the telecast that Boone has taken basically all of the first team reps this week and Renfree wasn't really ready to go until Friday, which isn't a day that Duke practices anyway. I expect a lot of Boone and only a touch of Renfree, just to force future opponents to gameplan for his return.

Go DUKE

[DukeSean]

Let's DO THIS!

GO DUKE!

[Dukehky]

I know that we're not exactly the best defense even when healthy, but what in the name of heaven was the UVA coach thinking starting Rocco ever? This Sims kid is legit.

That was the worst thing that could have happened, confidence level for this game just dropped dramatically, but in the immortal words of JGL, "It could happen"

[Dukehky]

Field and Jerseys look great though, that's almost as important to recruits as wins...

[DukeSean]

wow, what a response. Great play call and execution by Boone/Crowder

[Wander]

Fantastic play-calling on our first series

[OldPhiKap]

Great answer. Dig in Defense!

[DukeSean]

I know that we're not exactly the best defense even when healthy, but what in the name of heaven was the UVA coach thinking starting Rocco ever? This Sims kid is legit.

That was the worst thing that could have happened, confidence level for this game just dropped dramatically, but in the immortal words of JGL, "It could happen"

I gotta admit, Sims looked a lot better than I thought he would on that first series. We need to get some pressure on him. That's when we'll know what he's made of.

[WakeDevil]

Absolutely kills me that I can't be there today. Sitting in Duke South working all night. :(

http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/145086/1/watch-virginia-vs-duke.html

[TruBlu]

wow, what a response. Great play call and execution by Boone/Crowder

Maybe Roper is out sick!!!

[burnspbesq]

52 more minutes of this could be pretty cool. Would be nice to see Duke's long-running domination of the Hoos in lax carry over to football.

[Dukehky]

What the hell do I know?

Boone has a bigger arm than Renfree but I am a little concerned that with this hot start he's going to start taking some unnecessary chances. Guess I just gotta trust Cut and his coaching.

[DukeSean]

wow, for a bad running team, UVA is running all over us. Not a good sign for defense so far

[OldPhiKap]

wow, for a bad running team, UVA is running all over us. Not a good sign for defense so far

Gotta start getting some third down stops. The defense has been on the field a long time.

[DukeSean]

we need to make a stop on this series, even though we're tied they've had the ball so long. 12 minutes to our 3.

[DukeSean]

big reason they keep moving the ball is our poor tackling. I've seen a ton of missed tackles already today.

[OldPhiKap]

Got the stop, need to grind out a drive here and let the defense rest. Points even better!

[Dev11]

UVA receiver beats our corner and lets the deep ball slip through his hands. First punt for the Hoos. Let's capitalize.

[Dukehky]

Missed PI call and false starts really hurt that last drive. I understand the missed call though, from the back judge's position it was a really tough call to make.

We have to start making some tackles, the running back is getting SOOOOOOOOOO many yards after contact.

[75Crazie]

UVA is controlling both lines of scrimmage. I can see this getting ugly unless some sort of half-time adjustment pays dividends.

[Dev11]

Side note, UNC thrashed VPI today. They set a few "first time since..." records on the way

[DukeSean]

We have to start making some tackles, the running back is getting SOOOOOOOOOO many yards after contact.

our tackling has been atrocious so far.

[Dukehky]

This hasn't been one of Monday's better games, gotta keep the ball in play there.

Jones is making an NFL highlight tape just dancing through the line and the linebackers.

[Wander]

I'd really consider putting in Renfree for the 2nd half if he's able to go. Boone's been competent, but I think his stats are a little misleading - he had one really bad interception that was just dropped by the defender, and a whole lot of his throws are too high (they get caught, but leave the receiver in a bad position to make yards after the catch).

Ugh, our rush defense is awful.

Disagree on Monday - I think he's been quite good.

[DukeSean]

ugh. what just happened there for the UVA FG. Bad bad.

[grossbus]

"poor tackling"

for sure.

bad defensive breakdown at end of half.

[Dukehky]

Disagree on Monday - I think he's been quite good.

The only reason I say that is that he put one in the endzone with plenty of room for him to land it inside the twenty, I'll agree, the net punts have been good, but he's also been a little lucky when it comes to rolls, like the last one of the half, took a huge Duke bounce. That's part of the game though. I know he's only a freshman but I've been really impressed with him so far this season, and therefore have really high expectations for him because position by position vs the rest of the conference, he's one of the better players on the squad. Not saying he's playing poorly. Wow, that was a lot on the punter when our defense hasn't made tackles and Boone has been extraordinarily average.

I really think that Renfree would be shredding this defense, but that's only if he's healthy, and I have a hard time believing Cut wouldn't ride his horse in one of the biggest games of his era unless he absolutely couldn't.

[DukeSean]

I really think that Renfree would be shredding this defense, but that's only if he's healthy, and I have a hard time believing Cut wouldn't ride his horse in one of the biggest games of his era unless he absolutely couldn't.

If we continue to have trouble moving the ball offensively, with Boone overthrows/underthrows, I think we might see Renfree come in there. Since we don't have a running game right now, if we don't have a passing game, we have nothing. And our defense isn't exactly winning awards out there.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Why are we back to dinks and dunks?

[OldPhiKap]

Much sharper on both sides out of the locker room.

[OldPhiKap]

Canti!!!!

[Dev11]

Jela Duncan looks great with the ball, Duke up 28-17.

[DukeSean]

Jela Duncan. Did I mention he's a beast?

GO DUKE!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

That's more like it! Duncan! Strong!!!

[OldPhiKap]

Dig me some Duncan!

[grossbus]

Wow. Looking great so far this quarter. What a difference!

[75Crazie]

Do I detect some signs of some Cutcliffe halftime attitude adjustment? This is a different team I'm seeing this half.

[Dukehky]

GOOOOOOOOOOOO GEORGIA BULLDOGS!!!!!!!!!

Oh wait, wrong game, Go Blue Devils.

Boone hasn't had to be as good as I thought he needed to be since we picked up the running game and the defense. Note to the Carolina Panthers, this is how you make a young QB look really good, run the ball and play good defense.

[DukeSean]

Do I detect some signs of some Cutcliffe halftime attitude adjustment? This is a different team I'm seeing this half.

I'm sure tackling must've been an emphasis. It's been much better.

[Dev11]

Can anybody tell what they are? Haven't noticed them before.

[DukeSean]

Can anybody tell what they are? Haven't noticed them before.

They're a grim reaper-looking face

https://twitter.com/BlueDevilNation/status/252136106034860032/photo/1/large

[Dev11]

They're a grim reaper-looking face

Just what we need, another logo. I like the old pitchfork stickers, they should bring those back.

[Dev11]

Running backs all looking good today - Thompson, Duncan, Snead.

[OldPhiKap]

Do I detect some signs of some Cutcliffe halftime attitude adjustment? This is a different team I'm seeing this half.

I think they will need to reprint the locker room. I am sure he blistered the paint off the wall.

[DukeSean]

Just what we need, another logo. I like the old pitchfork stickers, they should bring those back.

Yea, I'm not huge on them either, but who knows who actually suggests/picks those things. Maybe the players did. In any case, I'll gladly trade pitchforks for grim reapers if it means Duke moves to 5-1.

[Dukehky]

Note to the Duke coaching staff, keep running the ball.

Also, the corner covering Vernon has been playing 8-10 yards off of him for the majority of the game. If we're going to run a lot of these bubble screens, I think it would be prudent to go to the best receiver in the history of the ACC (okay maybe thats a bit of a stretch, HEY CALVIN JOHNSON!!!) to pick up 5-10 yards instead of running these complex screens to Scott/Crowder that require complicated blocking schemes and have gotten blown up relatively often today.

But mostly, run on Duke. Like that last sentence.

[Dev11]

What a catch by vernon

[Dukehky]

Duke TD Catch by Vernon on a bomb from Boone...

Maybe Cut is reading the board and just doing the exact opposite of all my ideas. Not a terrible move, especially when it's working.

[DukeSean]

Wow. that was an amazing catch by future NFL WR Vernon. In double coverage. Just wow.

[OldPhiKap]

Think Mike London knows his name now?!?

[Dev11]

Wow. that was an amazing catch by future NFL WR Vernon. In double coverage. Just wow.

Not to mention that Boone's pass was perfect. One of the best plays we've seen all year

[DukeSean]

Canty giving Vernon a run for player of the game. He's been fantastic.

[Dev11]

Cockrell with an unnecessary pick on fourth down. Weird that he didn't just tip it away. Either way, Duke ball!

[OldPhiKap]

Great play by Conty, again.

Russ should have thrown it away on fourth down instead of picking it. Easy for me to say, I know.

[Dukehky]

I really think that that would be a decent rule change. You don't always want to bat it down because who knows what could happen when you smack a ball down. On a pick on 4th down you get the ball at the original line of scrimmage. Of course I'm saying that now, but maybe it would be a good rule.

[DukeSean]

I really think that that would be a decent rule change. You don't always want to bat it down because who knows what could happen when you smack a ball down. On a pick on 4th down you get the ball at the original line of scrimmage. Of course I'm saying that now, but maybe it would be a good rule.

Eh, too many situations where you would NOT want the ball at the original line of scrimmage.

[OldPhiKap]

BTW, Mr. Vernon should be hired as a PR guy for the program. Love to hear those kind of comments!

[Dukehky]

It probably seems like I'm nitpicking at this point, but I just don't see where Connette has a role taking snaps in this game. Boone is just as good if not better as a runner, and since he's playing so well, if there's a throwing option, let him throw the ball. I really don't like that Cut has a tendency to take his QB out of the game. I can see it more with Renfree to add a little hick-up, but with Boone back there and rolling, let him make the plays.

[DukeSean]

BTW, Mr. Vernon should be hired as a PR guy for the program. Love to hear those kind of comments!

Yea that was a great interview and great PR coming from a player's parent. Pretty sure hiring him would not be a good idea, at least for now. If we played in the SEC however, maybe no one would notice....

[DukeSean]

It probably seems like I'm nitpicking at this point, but I just don't see where Connette has a role taking snaps in this game. Boone is just as good if not better as a runner, and since he's playing so well, if there's a throwing option, let him throw the ball. I really don't like that Cut has a tendency to take his QB out of the game. I can see it more with Renfree to add a little hick-up, but with Boone back there and rolling, let him make the plays.

It might be to get Connette some reps as a QB. Insurance in case Renfree doesn't heal as much as we'd like?

[Dukehky]

It might be to get Connette some reps as a QB. Insurance in case Renfree doesn't heal as much as we'd like?

I'm okay with that, but on that last drive, had UVA come out and gotten a TD, this is still a football game. Now it doesn't seem like it's a big deal that we didn't get that first down, but it very well could have been. It was more a comment on a tendency of the Duke football staff that I don't particularly like or understand. But so far this season, they have proven that they know what they're doing. I think the depth that Duke has played with this year is really an attribute to the coaching staff.

[75Crazie]

I believe this is one of the worst-coached games I've seen in quite a while. Virginia should have been up an additional two scores at least in the first half. They completely dominated both lines of scrimmage, but they stopped themselves several times in trying to establish some sort of long passing game. If they had stuck to the running game, it would have been a completely different game at the half. But they kept Duke in the game and gave Cutcliffe a chance to do his magic at halftime. I think Cutcliffe gets the game ball, and London gets the goat.

[Dev11]

London gets the goat.

I don't know, I think that goes to the receivers who have let some unprotected long passes slip through their fingers.

Better them than us

[Dukehky]

UVA is absolutely falling apart here. They quit on their teammates and their coaches, it's embarrassing.

[DukeSean]

Duke duke! 5-1 baby!!!

[Dev11]

If you live anywhere between DC and Charlotte, you should be in Blacksburg next Saturday. WOW!

[dukeofcalabash]

THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT! 5-1 Record, beautiful uniforms, quicker and bigger players, wowsa! Congraulations team.

[DukeSean]

Predictions?

31-17 DUKE!

Beat UVA!

I'm glad the 17 held up! Was worried a bit at halftime, but great adjustments by Duke staff and Coach Cut. He's got to be early frontrunner in the coach-of-the-year race

[uh_no]

I'm glad the 17 held up! Was worried a bit at halftime, but great adjustments by Duke staff and Coach Cut. He's got to be early frontrunner in the coach-of-the-year race

28-0 is a good way to make a 3 point lead hold up

[mike88]

awesome game , Donovan Varner!! . . . .oh, wait

[grossbus]

"28-0 is a good way to make a 3 point lead hold up"

an even better way to overcome a 3 point deficit.

[magjayran]

I'm so excited about this win. Not just winning but winning convincingly after being down at halftime. All I wanted from this team was a bowl game for the first time in forever and we're one win away. Now where does that win come from? I'd like to see it happen next week!

[OldPhiKap]

I'm so excited about this win. Not just winning but winning convincingly after being down at halftime. All I wanted from this team was a bowl game for the first time in forever and we're one win away. Now where does that win come from? I'd like to see it happen next week!

If we go to Blacksburg and come away with the win, we are a top-25 team.

Are we that good? Tune in Saturday . . . .

[sagegrouse]

Cockrell with an unnecessary pick on fourth down. Weird that he didn't just tip it away. Either way, Duke ball!


Great play by Conty, again.

Russ should have thrown it away on fourth down instead of picking it. Easy for me to say, I know.

I wonder if the coaches tell the DBs to intercept the ball whenever possible and irregardless of the situation. I.e, -- "DO NOT THINK!"

sagegrouse

[Native]

I'm so excited about this win. Not just winning but winning convincingly after being down at halftime. All I wanted from this team was a bowl game for the first time in forever and we're one win away. Now where does that win come from? I'd like to see it happen next week!

Part of me wants to get it out of the way and take whoever we beat, but another part of me REALLY wants it to be over the Heels at home in two weeks...

The first time we've ever played UNC not during Thanksgiving break in as long as I can remember? Students will (hopefully) pack the house and we can tear us down some goal posts if we win.

Would be the best night ever.

[MarkD83]

Here's something nice to look at:


COASTAL CONF OVERALL
Miami (FL) 3-0 4-1
Duke 2-0 5-1
Virginia Tech 1-1 3-3
Georgia Tech 1-3 2-4
Virginia 0-2 2-4

(UNC is not listed since they are not eligible for post season play.)

[OldPhiKap]

I wonder if the coaches tell the DBs to intercept the ball whenever possible -- "DO NOT THINK!"

sagegrouse

Yeah, I wonder. It seems that you need to be aware of time/situation. But folks rarely just grab and ground. Ego, training, or lack of thought? Curious to hear from those who know.

[TruBlu]

Here's something nice to look at:


COASTAL CONF OVERALL
Miami (FL) 3-0 4-1
Duke 2-0 5-1
Virginia Tech 1-1 3-3
Georgia Tech 1-3 2-4
Virginia 0-2 2-4

(UNC is not listed since they are not eligible for post season play.)

unc-CHEAT should not be eligible for in-season play

[sagegrouse]

Favorite comments during the game--

"There was a question whether the diminutive Virginia receivers could get open against the big tough Duke defensive backs." Wow!! Just yesterday we had nothing but smurfs back there.

Midway through the 3rd quarter after a good Duke stop: "You know, these guys aren't just pretty boys, walking around campus with books under their arm. They've developed an attitude."

sagegrouse

[TruBlu]

The defense came up big in the second half. Only 5 first downs for UVA in the second half. For the game, UVA was 4-16 on third down conversions and 0-3 on 4th down. Huge props to Canty.

Unfortunately, I had to watch this on TV, as a lower back flare-up prevented my making the 12 hour round trip drive. In two weeks, though, I will be in Derm even if someone has to strap me on a luggage rack.

[loran16]

Part of me wants to get it out of the way and take whoever we beat, but another part of me REALLY wants it to be over the Heels at home in two weeks...

The first time we've ever played UNC not during Thanksgiving break in as long as I can remember? Students will (hopefully) pack the house and we can tear us down some goal posts if we win.

Would be the best night ever.

And it's during UNC's fall break! I mean, UNC will have a crowd there regardless (breaks don't affect them like they affect Duke) but the timing is for the first time ever in Duke's favor.

[Duke of Nashville]

Can anyone comment on the crowd at Wallace Wade? Heard a lot going into the game that we needed a solid crowd. However, I haven't heard any response to that yet.

[loran16]

Can anyone comment on the crowd at Wallace Wade? Heard a lot going into the game that we needed a solid crowd. However, I haven't heard any response to that yet.

Wasn't great --> standard Duke Crowd. Will be far better vs UNC, if only because it's the freaking tarholes.

[TruBlu]

Can anyone comment on the crowd at Wallace Wade? Heard a lot going into the game that we needed a solid crowd. However, I haven't heard any response to that yet.

My son, who attended the game, texted a guestimate of 20K.

[Native]

Can anyone comment on the crowd at Wallace Wade? Heard a lot going into the game that we needed a solid crowd. However, I haven't heard any response to that yet.

Meh. Was a little better than previous games but not by much. Where I was raising all sorts of where-we-send-Carolina down in the first few rows we were solid. I want a full student section, all the way up, for the UNC game.

[grossbus]

"All I wanted from this team was a bowl game"

wish people would stop fixating on a bowl game. seems like every time in the past that this sentiment was expressed, we would crash.

concentrate on a winning season and beating unc. that would be good for me. not that interested in a 3rd rate bowl game.

[Duke of Nashville]

Meh. Was a little better than previous games but not by much. Where I was raising all sorts of where-we-send-Carolina down in the first few rows we were solid. I want a full student section, all the way up, for the UNC game.

Well I guess the theory of build it and they will come will be tested.

5-1 to start the year should build support. Everyone wants to cheer for a winning team.

Looking for an win vs. VT.

Too bad they have stunk here recently. Still would like a signature ACC top-teir win. This year Miami, Clemson and FSU will be tough to beat.

But who knows...maybe this year is special....

[Dukehky]

Meh. Was a little better than previous games but not by much. Where I was raising all sorts of where-we-send-Carolina down in the first few rows we were solid. I want a full student section, all the way up, for the UNC game.

As much as I would like to see it, I don't think it's gonna happen my man. The basketball games seldom fill up anymore. I graduated a couple of years ago, and the typical Duke student just doesn't care as much as they used to about any sport, let alone football. It sucks, but I don't see it changing in time for the Carolina game. Please prove me wrong though, I always wanted for my college experience to provide a real college football experience. Old tailgate was fun for the first time, but after that, I was over it.

[loran16]

As much as I would like to see it, I don't think it's gonna happen my man. The basketball games seldom fill up anymore. I graduated a couple of years ago, and the typical Duke student just doesn't care as much as they used to about any sport, let alone football. It sucks, but I don't see it changing in time for the Carolina game. Please prove me wrong though, I always wanted for my college experience to provide a real college football experience. Old tailgate was fun for the first time, but after that, I was over it.

The student section isn't that big hky, and it usually fills on the first game of the season actually (or pretty close) in football. And trust me, for the first time in over a decade that Duke-UNC will be played at a time when Duke students are on campus, at 5-1? They'll fill it.

[magjayran]

"All I wanted from this team was a bowl game"

wish people would stop fixating on a bowl game. seems like every time in the past that this sentiment was expressed, we would crash.

concentrate on a winning season and beating unc. that would be good for me. not that interested in a 3rd rate bowl game.

Baby steps man. Gotta get six wins before we get seven.

[TruBlu]

From watching on TV, it doesn't appear that we had any further injuries. Did any players need to leave the game?

[Dukehky]

The student section isn't that big hky, and it usually fills on the first game of the season actually (or pretty close) in football. And trust me, for the first time in over a decade that Duke-UNC will be played at a time when Duke students are on campus, at 5-1? They'll fill it.

You're right on the student's section part, it is fairly small. I'm just thinking in terms of the rest of the stadium I guess, but they also don't stop letting students in ever, they just let em sit kind of wherever they want. It'll be a huge game, hopefully all of WW will be a little darker shade of blue.

[uh_no]

The student section isn't that big hky, and it usually fills on the first game of the season actually (or pretty close) in football. And trust me, for the first time in over a decade that Duke-UNC will be played at a time when Duke students are on campus, at 5-1? They'll fill it.

especially at 5 wins with a potential bowl win and without having beaten carolina (despite being close)....it'll fill

I was at cut's first game JMU...it was our first home win in years, the students were pumped....and he came over and told the student section "lets save those suckers [goalposts] for down the road"

if we win against carolina for a bowl bid, i'm not sure there is anything else they can be saved for....

[loran16]

especially at 5 wins with a potential bowl win and without having beaten carolina (despite being close)....it'll fill

I was at cut's first game JMU...it was our first home win in years, the students were pumped....and he came over and told the student section "lets save those suckers [goalposts] for down the road"

if we win against carolina for a bowl bid, i'm not sure there is anything else they can be saved for....

Yep, I was there too in the front row. Cut told us not to storm the field then but to save it for the Holes. Time to make good on that promise.

[uh_no]

You're right on the student's section part, it is fairly small. I'm just thinking in terms of the rest of the stadium I guess, but they also don't stop letting students in ever, they just let em sit kind of wherever they want. It'll be a huge game, hopefully all of WW will be a little darker shade of blue.

Those of us who were at the alabama game know that is untrue....they have a limit on how many students they can let in, and it was only near the end when it was clear students had left that they let more in

[Native]

As much as I would like to see it, I don't think it's gonna happen my man. The basketball games seldom fill up anymore. I graduated a couple of years ago, and the typical Duke student just doesn't care as much as they used to about any sport, let alone football. It sucks, but I don't see it changing in time for the Carolina game.

Agree. And it's a shame. Students don't realize what they're missing.

[mjones723]

especially at 5 wins with a potential bowl win and without having beaten carolina (despite being close)....it'll fill

I was at cut's first game JMU...it was our first home win in years, the students were pumped....and he came over and told the student section "lets save those suckers [goalposts] for down the road"

if we win against carolina for a bowl bid, i'm not sure there is anything else they can be saved for....

Gio will run for 220 against us. We need to beat the hokies. But I understand where you're coming from.

[loran16]

Gio will run for 220 against us. We need to beat the hokies. But I understand where you're coming from.

Again, honestly, it's not at all about the amount the opponent will score on us. This is a shootout team. But we can score on nearly anyone (not Stanford), and if Wake can score 28 on Carolina, we can score more, enough to keep up. We're averaging 45 points a game at home after all.

[Dev11]

The first time we've ever played UNC not during Thanksgiving break in as long as I can remember?

Your senior year of high school, we played them in Chapel Hill. Tough one, but the Duke section was LOUD

[loran16]

Your senior year of high school, we played them in Chapel Hill. Tough one, but the Duke section was LOUD

Yeah but it was at Chapel Hill. This is the first time not during thanksgiving AT DUKE. Big difference.

[J.Blink]

Great game. Just awesome. I'm still psyched! This just felt like a game where all the cylinders were firing and--unlike most games in recent (and not so recent!) memory--Duke intimidated and demoralized the opponent. Major congratulations to Vernon!

Wonder what happens when Renfree's back up too 100%...

Crowd wasn't bad by our normal standards, most of the home side was pretty thick, and student attendance was above average. I'd think the 20k estimate someone tossed out there earlier is not too far off (I would have guessed about half full the start). I took a panorama shot from my seat in the 1st quarter, with a limited view of the home side.

2848

[Dev11]

Yeah but it was at Chapel Hill. This is the first time not during thanksgiving AT DUKE. Big difference.

Agreed. Hopefully it's not all baby blue.

[loran16]

BTW, I'm sure this has already been said, but it Cant be said enough how awesome Walt Canty was in this game, particularly in the second half. Two HUGE tackles for loss - the Turnover on Downs and the 3rd down play near the end as well as countless other tackles.

I know I'm generally in the minority thinking Matt Daniels was majorly overrated - making tons of tackles mainly because the guys in front of him were missing and only after lots of yardage - but Canty is doing all Daniels ever did and more. I hope he got the game ball, even with Boone & Vernon's heroics.

[peloton]

I went to the game tonight and I'm still jacked up, so this'll be short - too excited to spend much time typing on a keyboard. You're right, Loran...Walt Canty did his share and more to insure that Duke was not going to be denied today. If that's not enough, as we were walking through the dorm areas back to the parking lot, a woman said that she knows Walt and that he's a wonderful young man - makes it all the sweeter. The only (and I mean only) disappointing thing about the game tonight was of course the average to slightly better than average crowd size. That's disappointing as these guys are showing us something and although I guess you can't really say that any team literally deserves the fans' support, they certainly should have our support. I grew up in Durham and have been a Duke fan for longer than I care to admit so I'm not shocked by this, but it's disappointing nevertheless. I can only speak for myself but I'm definitely enjoying the ride! Congrats to Coach Cut and the team...we still haven't accomplished everything we want to accomplish this season though. Next play! It was fun, we played well, but I'm getting hungry...and some turkey might hit the spot next weekend! Thanks to the TBCC for the food - sorry my son and I couldn't spend more time with you guys today - arrived on campus later than I wanted. We are Duke!!

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Today was the first time in 40 years of going to Duke football games that I've heard a player's name chanted by the fans, like the Crazies do in Cameron! Congratulations Conner Vernon, on so many levels! :cool:

It was so fun to be in Wallace Wade Stadium this afternoon! http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gifhttp://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

[chrishoke]

Today was the first time in 40 years of going to Duke football games that I've heard a player's name chanted by the fans, like the Crazies do in Cameron! Congratulations Conner Vernon, on so many levels! :cool:

It was so fun to be in Wallace Wade Stadium this afternoon! http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gifhttp://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

Yes, I was screaming CV until it hurt. So awesome!

[OZ]

Can anyone comment on the crowd at Wallace Wade? Heard a lot going into the game that we needed a solid crowd. However, I haven't heard any response to that yet.



The crowd was a little above average as has already been stated. But for those Duke fans who were there, for the first time in a long time, we were playing an ACC school and having FUN! It was a great game and the crowd was really into it. We got to see a total all around team effort. There were some individual high-lights, but it was mostly a TEAM effort.

I drive 300 miles round trip to the games and all I want to say is... "Any Duke student or fan, within reasonable driving distance, who chose not to attend today's game should be penalized 15 yeards for 'UNDUKE-sportsman like conduct."

I have just gotten home and I sound like I usually do when I return from a Duke BB game. A cold one should cure that.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I was at the game. The TV commentary may have given some insights we missed in the stands, but the atmosphere that began to develop in the fair to middling sized crowd has been missing for decades....by the second half, the crowd was in the game and making noise, the kind of noise the home team deserves. We still don't have many football cheers, but the fans took it on themselves to get involved and didn't let up.

Looking ahead to the Carolina game, there are tickets still available as well as tickets in 4 packs (4 home games). If you've been wavering about whether to come to a game, please make plans to be at the Carolina game on Oct. 20. This is a special year we're having.

[msdukie]

I'm sorry, but why on Earth would any Duke fan not want a win next week, or any in game ever? (Directed at those you who want to "wait" to win until the week after when we play the Holes).

Duke has six very tough games remaining and 0 guarantee of a win in any of them.

[Cell-R]

I was there and it was awesome. As for student attendance, I think part of it can be attributed to midterm week. It's hard enough to get students to come out during a normal week, and I think upcoming tests had something to do with the poor showing.

[devildeac]

Most impressive stat (if I am recalling my stats correctly):

1st half-Uva rushing yards=181
2nd half-Uva rushing yards=5

[devildeac]

We might have a winnable game in Tallahassee this year:rolleyes:;).

[uh_no]

We might have a winnable game in Tallahassee this year:rolleyes:;).

after today, I think all are games are winnable....i'm not sure there's a team in the ACC that's "that" much better than we are that we can't be competitive.

[OZ]

Most impressive stat (if I am recalling my stats correctly):

1st half-Uva rushing yards=181
2nd half-Uva rushing yards=5

As we were driving home, the Duke post-game radio show reported UVA had 184 rushing yards in the first half and ONLY 2 NET yards in the second half. The "D" coaches talked about the adjustments they made at the half... they obviously worked. The OFFICIAL stats may have been updated since then. I do know that the scoreboard showed 184 for UVA in the first half.
What a FUN game.

[kingboozer]

After seeing what the rest of the ACC has to offer so far and what this Duke team is capable of, I don't think it's too far fetched to think we can have a 2006 WF type season...

[tommy]

Here's something nice to look at:


COASTAL CONF OVERALL
Miami (FL) 3-0 4-1
Duke 2-0 5-1
Virginia Tech 1-1 3-3
Georgia Tech 1-3 2-4
Virginia 0-2 2-4

(UNC is not listed since they are not eligible for post season play.)

You can really say we have the best record in the ACC right now. Nobody's undefeated. Three teams are 5-1, and we're one of them. Of those three, only one is undefeated in the conference: Duke.

Nice.

[Greg_Newton]

As we were driving home, the Duke post-game radio show reported UVA had 184 rushing yards in the first half and ONLY 2 NET yards in the second half.

This is freaking amazing. I thought it must have been a mistake at first, but I've seen it in several articles. Can't say enough about our defense.

On that note, Jim Knowles deserves some massive praise. What he's been able to accomplish so far with the injuries he's had is nothing short of amazing. We'll certainly miss Vernon, Canty, etc. next year, but I'm most worried that he might end up elsewhere himself; I really hope we can keep him for a few more years.

Aside from the overall performance, it was also impressive that we were shuffling 8 guys in and out on the defensive line today, even with 2-3 starters out (Bruce, Foxx, Wallace). Annunike and Sarmiento are legitimate starters, but Sink, Johnson, Woodruff, Dewalt-Ondijo, Ingram and FR Wray are 2nd/3rd/?? string guys who are starting and getting major minutes. FR Dwayne Norman has been one of our 3 main safeties the past 1.5 games, and has mostly played very well. Backups Tony Foster and Tim Burton are getting major minutes at CB, and we have an effective 4-man LB rotation even with our best one out for the season. Basically, Knowles has done an excellent job of not only getting guys game ready and developing depth, but utilizing that depth very effectively to keep guys fresh without giving up much in the process.

Also, credit to Roper for how he's managed the running game recently. I think he's done a pretty great job of staying with the hot hand and using all 3 RBs effectively to keep them energized and hungry and keep the defense on its toes. Thompson and Snead averaged over 5 YPC today, but Duncan rewarded his continued faith after a tough first half by carrying the offense on the decisive drive to put us up 28-17.

I talked to several UVA fans who were impressed by our overall team speed and number of athletes/playmakers we had, which were such lovely words to hear... you get so used to picking out our flaws and wondering what could go wrong that it's quite the pleasant surprise to realize that we actually appear to have better talent than a low-mid ACC team like UVA or Wake. Surreal.

[Greg_Newton]

Oh, and:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ky1SD2ZQJs

Vernon's walk back up the track with the crowd going nuts was one of my favorite moments in Wade. You can see how emotional he was, I can't imagine how great it must have felt to effectively seal such a huge game with such a huge play after four years of giving his heart and soul trying to bring Duke football back to respectability. So happy for him and the rest of the seniors today.

[stickdog]

Part of me wants to get it out of the way and take whoever we beat, but another part of me REALLY wants it to be over the Heels at home in two weeks...

The first time we've ever played UNC not during Thanksgiving break in as long as I can remember? Students will (hopefully) pack the house and we can tear us down some goal posts if we win.

Would be the best night ever.

LOL. Sounds good, but it will be a far better time if it makes Duke 7-1.

[peloton]

Vernon's walk back up the track with the crowd going nuts was one of my favorite moments in Wade. You can see how emotional he was...

Greg Newton...exactly. When this happened I said to my teenage son, "Check out Conner - he's so jacked up with all the adrenaline that he's pacing the sideline". He almost looked like a caged animal...hey, he certainly played like an animal! :D On a totally unrelated note, it was great to spend some time with KillerLeft and his buddy at the game - always enjoy catching some of the game with guys from the board here.

[devildeac]

after today, I think all are games are winnable....i'm not sure there's a team in the ACC that's "that" much better than we are that we can't be competitive.

That loss to Stanford certainly damaged our NC hopes;):rolleyes:.

[devildeac]

As we were driving home, the Duke post-game radio show reported UVA had 184 rushing yards in the first half and ONLY 2 NET yards in the second half. The "D" coaches talked about the adjustments they made at the half... they obviously worked. The OFFICIAL stats may have been updated since then. I do know that the scoreboard showed 184 for UVA in the first half.
What a FUN game.

I couldn't recall exactly how their first half stats broke down. (I'm going to blame the Ymm, Beer thread on the OTB:o.) I knew they had 321 total yards and was not sure the exact rushing amount. Thanks for the final numbers. Allowing 2 yards rushing is even more impressive than 5:rolleyes:;). Seriously, the staff did make some outstanding adjustments to correct the first half rushing D as they just ran over, around and through us and several of us wondered why they threw the ball at all considering the success they were having on the ground.

[devildeac]

Oh, and:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ky1SD2ZQJs

Vernon's walk back up the track with the crowd going nuts was one of my favorite moments in Wade. You can see how emotional he was, I can't imagine how great it must have felt to effectively seal such a huge game with such a huge play after four years of giving his heart and soul trying to bring Duke football back to respectability. So happy for him and the rest of the seniors today.

I am still amazed that he made that catch. It was in the enclosed end of WW right in front of our seats and we watched it multiple times on replay. Great concentration, pass, effort and result, especially with double coverage on the play. I think I shall watch that a few more times now that you included the replay:D. His first TD catch of the day was pretty good, too;).

[Bob Green]

....by the second half, the crowd was in the game and making noise, the kind of noise the home team deserves...This is a special year we're having.

Quality over quantity describes yesterday's gameday atmosphere. The crowd was loud, excited and stayed until late in the 4th quarter. Now let's go beat the Hokies, before coming home and taking care of business against Carolina.

Conner Vernon's second TD reception was beautiful. CV split the double team and Boone's pass was so accurate the ball must have contained GPS guidance. All three long TD passes took place in the closed end of the horseshoe, which is great for those of us seating in General Admission.

[Faison1]

Wow! Just.....Wow! So happy for those guys! What a great day.

I was with a bunch of Wha-Who's afterwards, and frankly, there wasn't a ton of surprise. In otherwords, it wasn't an upset. I think everyone is accepting that Duke is respectable now.

The score was a bit of a stunner though.....ouch.

Their reply to my grief was, "Just wait until hoops season.....oh, wait...."

[TruBlu]

Also, credit to Roper for how he's managed the running game recently. I think he's done a pretty great job of staying with the hot hand and using all 3 RBs effectively to keep them energized and hungry and keep the defense on its toes. Thompson and Snead averaged over 5 YPC today, but Duncan rewarded his continued faith after a tough first half by carrying the offense on the decisive drive to put us up 28-17.


Agree with you. I rarely have anything good to say about Roper, but I liked the way that individual drives in the second half of the game featured a different RB. That seemed to keep them "energized and hungry".

[Sixthman]

I was at the game. The TV commentary may have given some insights we missed in the stands, but the atmosphere that began to develop in the fair to middling sized crowd has been missing for decades....by the second half, the crowd was in the game and making noise, the kind of noise the home team deserves. We still don't have many football cheers, but the fans took it on themselves to get involved and didn't let up.

Looking ahead to the Carolina game, there are tickets still available as well as tickets in 4 packs (4 home games). If you've been wavering about whether to come to a game, please make plans to be at the Carolina game on Oct. 20. This is a special year we're having.

The crowd was typical in size and make up, but it had a different vibe. We had fun, and lots of it. No turnovers, second half shut out, excellant play in all areas of the game. In the second half, Duke had not just players, but play makers. Wow!

[pbc2]

BDN Post-Game Coverage

Recap with celebration video: http://bluedevilnation.net/2012/10/duke-football-moves-to-5-1-with-42-17-win-over-virginia/

Coach Cutcliffe: http://bluedevilnation.net/2012/10/coach-cutcliffe-talks-about-dukes-42-17-victory-over-virginia/

Duke Defense: http://bluedevilnation.net/2012/10/duke-defense-talks-about-their-second-half-shutout-against-virginia/

Anthony Boone: http://bluedevilnation.net/2012/10/dukes-anthony-boone-throws-for-4-tds-in-his-first-career-start/

[Kedsy]

What's happened to the world when the first five threads on the Duke Basketball Report are all about football?

[Native]

Oh, and:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ky1SD2ZQJs

Vernon's walk back up the track with the crowd going nuts was one of my favorite moments in Wade. You can see how emotional he was, I can't imagine how great it must have felt to effectively seal such a huge game with such a huge play after four years of giving his heart and soul trying to bring Duke football back to respectability. So happy for him and the rest of the seniors today.

That catch was RIDICULOUS. Right in front of the student section... What a toss by Boone, too. Perfect placement. Just wow.

[Lunchab1es]

What's happened to the world when the first five threads on the Duke Basketball Report are all about football?

Winning, duh!

[Dev11]

What's happened to the world when the first five threads on the Duke Basketball Report are all about football?

Is the football team wins a bowl game and the basketball team fails to play in a postseason game past the ACC tournament, motion to rename the board DFR for a week.

[jimsumner]

I actually thought Vernon's first TD catch was more impressive than the second. It essentially was a jump ball and the Virginia DB had inside position. But Vernon just went up and took it away.

I was reminded of all the times I've seen that play go the other way. A Duke DB in great position on a 50/50 ball but an athletically superior WR comes away with it. Just one play but perhaps symbolic of a change.

[Native]

Ahem.

http://sports.chronicleblogs.com/2012/10/07/duke-football-receives-votes-in-latest-ap-poll/

[loran16]

Ahem.

http://sports.chronicleblogs.com/2012/10/07/duke-football-receives-votes-in-latest-ap-poll/

First of all the Chronicle is incorrect - 1 coach gave a vote to Duke when we were 5-3 in 2009-2010. (The speculation was that it was Phil Fulmer.)

Second of all: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/polls?poll=3 - we got TEN points in the Coaches' poll, good for more than NC STATE! How about that.

[ForkFondler]

Is the football team wins a bowl game and the basketball team fails to play in a postseason game past the ACC tournament, motion to rename the board DFR for a week.

The last time Duke went to a bowl, K went on the injury list, and MBB went 2-12 in the ACC. So, bite your tongue.

Also, for the record, I am not one the people who volunteered to give up five December MBB wins in exchange for a win against FIU. I did agree to sacrifice one though. Sorry.

[killerleft]

Almost mantra-like, sometimes after the fact, I have made that observation about our defense. It usually happens when the situation cries out for that momentum-building play when you can just sense that it will be a game-changer. Obviously, we haven't made enough of those plays for years.

The whole Duke defense, especially considering our injury situation, deserves kudos for a fine second half.

But when it came time to change the game, Walt Canty blitzed twice on the same 4-down set. Both times, once on a crucial 4th-and-1, Walt Canty came up with Wahoo scalps in the offensive backfield. Walt Canty. Just like a speeding bullet. Thanks, Walt.

[devildeac]

What's happened to the world when the first five threads on the Duke Basketball Report are all about football?

Simple. Two words:

Football school ;).

[peloton]

Bless Heather Dinich's heart; she almost brought a tear to my eye when I read this...


On a day in which the rest of the ACC forgot how to play defense, Duke shut out Virginia for the entire second half. Duke is not only playing defense this year, it's playing hard-hitting, attitude defense. Virginia had two turnovers. Duke had none. This is a well-coached, disciplined team that is off to a 5-1 start. It's 2-0 in the ACC. It's undefeated at home. And it's ONE WIN away from going bowling for the first time since 1994.

The balance of power has shifted in the Coastal Division, and for the first time in a long time, Duke has it. More importantly, it deserves it.

From a lifelong Duke fan, thanks for the props, Heather - always enjoy reading your musings on college football. Hopefully we'll continue to impress you (and others).

[Indoor66]

Bless Heather Dinich's heart; she almost brought a tear to my eye when I read this...



From a lifelong Duke fan, thanks for the props, Heather - always enjoy reading your musings on college football. Hopefully we'll continue to impress you (and others).

Take a look at her Bowl preditions at this link (http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/45541/acc-bowl-projections-week-7-2).

[ForkFondler]

Take a look at her Bowl preditions at this link (http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/45541/acc-bowl-projections-week-7-2).

I'd say the Belk Bowl corresponds to a 3-3 finish to the season. 2-4 would get us Music City or Independence -- which is what I predict at this point. 1-5 and we're in the Military Bowl.

[OldPhiKap]

I'd say the Belk Bowl corresponds to a 3-3 finish to the season. 2-4 would get us Music City or Independence -- which is what I predict at this point. 1-5 and we're in the Military Bowl.

5-1 or 6-0 and we are playing after NYE.

Just sayin'

[peloton]

5-1 or 6-0 and we are playing after NYE.

Just sayin'

OldPhiKap doing his best Ozzie impersonation! :)

[mkline09]

OldPhiKap doing his best Ozzie impersonation! :)

He is not the only one. In the post game press conference Luke Decock was discussing the possibilities of Duke playing in the ACC Title game even if they happen to lose next week to Va. Tech. I personally think a win agaisnt Virginia Tech is not only possible but very probable given how these two team are playing right now. Hokies are tough and tough at home, but they are not the same team they have been. And Duke isn't either and that is a good thing.

[loran16]

Bless Heather Dinich's heart; she almost brought a tear to my eye when I read this...



From a lifelong Duke fan, thanks for the props, Heather - always enjoy reading your musings on college football. Hopefully we'll continue to impress you (and others).

If you haven't been already, you should be reading Dinich's ESPN ACC blog. She's terrific - fair and good analyses of the situations, never talking anyone down, always talking about the interesting things regarding every team, even those who are way out of it.

[75Crazie]

He is not the only one. In the post game press conference Luke Decock was discussing the possibilities of Duke playing in the ACC Title game even if they happen to lose next week to Va. Tech. I personally think a win agaisnt Virginia Tech is not only possible but very probable given how these two team are playing right now. Hokies are tough and tough at home, but they are not the same team they have been. And Duke isn't either and that is a good thing.
I think Carolina did us a definite disfavor by humiliating the Hokies. They will be more than ready for us. Your "very probable" win smacks of extreme over-confidence. If Duke brings its A or B game it will definitely be a game -- but I expect Tech to be bringing its A game as well.

[jimsumner]

I think Carolina did us a definite disfavor by humiliating the Hokies. They will be more than ready for us. Your "very probable" win smacks of extreme over-confidence. If Duke brings its A or B game it will definitely be a game -- but I expect Tech to be bringing its A game as well.

Couldn't one just as easily say that Pitt and Cincy did Carolina a disfavor by humiliating the Hokies? Maybe they did bring their A game to Chapel Hill.

I certainly don't think a Duke win next Saturday is very probable, even probable. But VT is 3-3 on merit. They have some flaws and are quite beatable.

[Wander]

He is not the only one. In the post game press conference Luke Decock was discussing the possibilities of Duke playing in the ACC Title game even if they happen to lose next week to Va. Tech.

Unfortunately we got FSU and Clemson on our schedule from the other division instead of BC and Maryland. If the team wants to win the conference then we're very likely going to need to beat VT. We're also in the uncomfortable position of being helped by every Carolina win (UNC can't make the postseason, so every loss they tack on to someone else in our division is helpful).

Serious props need to go to our secondary for what they've been doing with all the injuries. The Foster interception kept us afloat in a first half in which I thought we "deserved" to be down by a lot more than 3 points, and Canty's 4th down stop was the most important play of the game to me.

Also our punter is awesome. Nine punts and their longest return is 6 yards?

[devildeac]

Unfortunately we got FSU and Clemson on our schedule from the other division instead of BC and Maryland. If the team wants to win the conference then we're very likely going to need to beat VT. We're also in the uncomfortable position of being helped by every Carolina win (UNC can't make the postseason, so every loss they tack on to someone else in our division is helpful).

Serious props need to go to our secondary for what they've been doing with all the injuries. The Foster interception kept us afloat in a first half in which I thought we "deserved" to be down by a lot more than 3 points, and Canty's 4th down stop was the most important play of the game to me.

Also our punter is awesome. Nine punts and their longest return is 6 yards?


For about a 47 yard average, too. Did he have 2 or 3 down inside the 20? I'm just glad his leg did not get tired or pull a groin muscle with 9 punts. That's a busy afternoon for him.

[RepoMan]

Couldn't one just as easily say that Pitt and Cincy did Carolina a disfavor by humiliating the Hokies? Maybe they did bring their A game to Chapel Hill.

I certainly don't think a Duke win next Saturday is very probable, even probable. But VT is 3-3 on merit. They have some flaws and are quite beatable.

Agreed. Hokies had every reason the be in top form on Saturday -- they still had a chance to go undefeated in conference (and they have a history of following OOC missteps with great conference play). But there was a complete defensive collapse. At this point, the weight of potentially being the worst Va Tech team in 20 years may result in unhelpful pressure for them. Consider what happened in Chapel Hill during basketball season a few years ago when the wheels started to come off.

I think the spread seems right. Blacksburg is a very tough place to win a game, but, if you have to play there, this might be the season.

[OldPhiKap]

Agreed. Hokies had every reason the be in top form on Saturday -- they still had a chance to go undefeated in conference (and they have a history of following OOC missteps with great conference play). But there was a complete defensive collapse. At this point, the weight of potentially being the worst Va Tech team in 20 years may result in unhelpful pressure for them. Consider what happened in Chapel Hill during basketball season a few years ago when the wheels started to come off.

I think the spread seems right. Blacksburg is a very tough place to win a game, but, if you have to play there, this might be the season.

Get up on them early, turn the pressure on and bring out the boo birds. Can't wait for the second half to turn it on; we need to start the way we finished Saturday.

Smoke the Turkeys!

[OldPhiKap]

OldPhiKap doing his best Ozzie impersonation! :)

Not true. I allowed that we may have one loss. ;>)

[DukeSean]

Also our punter is awesome. Nine punts and their longest return is 6 yards?


For about a 47 yard average, too. Did he have 2 or 3 down inside the 20? I'm just glad his leg did not get tired or pull a groin muscle with 9 punts. That's a busy afternoon for him.

Let's not forget the coverage team in those punting situations. Isaac Blakeney was a monster against UVA. It felt like every time UVA even tried to return a punt, Blakeney was right there for the quick stop.

[jafarr1]

At some point, the other coverage teams are going to start double-teaming Blakeney to force other players to make a play.

[Mal]

Couldn't one just as easily say that Pitt and Cincy did Carolina a disfavor by humiliating the Hokies? Maybe they did bring their A game to Chapel Hill.

I certainly don't think a Duke win next Saturday is very probable, even probable. But VT is 3-3 on merit. They have some flaws and are quite beatable.

This seems a much more realistic approach here. Some of the comments above about us now being favored to walk into Blacksburg, where we haven't won in at least 60 years, and take a game, had me thinking back to the talk before another game this season, where we then went on the road, coughed the ball up 4 times and gave up 50 points. The difference is that the Hokies are uncharacteristically not a Top 20 team and Stanford is, but our guys, successful as they've been this season, are still the same banged up team without a history of the sort of conference victory some people now want to bestow upon them six days in advance. We appear to be a pretty good squad, and one that could very well find ourselves in a bowl come the holidays. But while VTU's not their traditional self, they've only had one "bad" loss (to Pitt); they lost by a field goal to a Top 20 team at a neutral site, and got a little bit buzzsawed by Carolina on the road on Saturday.

All that said, I'd say this is the most realistic shot we've had at Tech in years, and I would not be surprised at all if we pulled out the win. I'm just not betting on it yet. If Cut can get this one, then I'll think we're 50/50 or better to beat at least one of GT, Miami or Carolina. That would be some good gravy, to get 7 wins against about the toughest schedule one could expect in the ACC.

Speaking of which, how does the conference cross-division scheduling work? Random draw on the 2 teams we don't get, or are they put together, so every third year we'll get neither Maryland nor BC like this season? Either way, I assume there's a very good chance we don't get both of GT and FSU again next season, right?

[dpslaw]

To add insult to injury, UVa's indoor practice facility (still under construction) is burning down as I type.

[Bob Green]

At some point, the other coverage teams are going to start double-teaming Blakeney to force other players to make a play.

I cannot remember if it was a punt or kick-off return, but Anthony Young-Wiseman made a very nice open field tackle on a Virginia returner. Issac Blakeney is a beast, but there are other guys capable of making a play.

[Reilly]

To add insult to injury, UVa's indoor practice facility (still under construction) is burning down as I type.

The roof is on fire. Wonder if they need any water?

[Greg_Newton]

I actually thought Vernon's first TD catch was more impressive than the second. It essentially was a jump ball and the Virginia DB had inside position. But Vernon just went up and took it away.

I was reminded of all the times I've seen that play go the other way. A Duke DB in great position on a 50/50 ball but an athletically superior WR comes away with it. Just one play but perhaps symbolic of a change.

As the ball was in air on both plays, I remember being fully aware of how absurd it was that I was expecting Vernon to come down with it... but I was still strangely confident that he somehow would. I don't know if football players get "in the zone" in the same way that basketball players occasionally do, but if they do, I'm pretty sure Vernon was in it on Saturday. You could just tell he was on another level from everyone else.

[Greg_Newton]

And just for fun, here's Conner's other TD:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSGfuwGvEjc

[mkline09]

I think Carolina did us a definite disfavor by humiliating the Hokies. They will be more than ready for us. Your "very probable" win smacks of extreme over-confidence. If Duke brings its A or B game it will definitely be a game -- but I expect Tech to be bringing its A game as well.

I am far from over confident but I will channel my inner Ozzie and be optimistic for a change. I believe a win is probable. Probable is not the same as definite and at least to me, leaves some margin for an alternative outcome.I don't think there is anything wrong with that or even being confident. Duke fans have hung their heads in shame for the better part of 50 years and now the team is playing very well, very smart and winning games. It is time for the fan base to show some confidence in the team and make some bold statements. I personally don't feel very probable is too bold. I'm not guaranteeing Duke will win. I just feel that they have a good chance/probability of doing so. I don't think Duke will beat the Hokies by 25, not on their home field, but I think they can win for sure. Again this isn't the same Duke team or the same Virginia Tech team. Duke is playing big-boy football, or at least closer to it than they have in years so we should embrace it and not be worried we are being disrespectful or that the opponent will be extra motivated because of something we say. I hope Tech does bring their A game and I hope that Duke does too. Then we will see whose better. No excuses just play. If Tech wins I'll tip my cap to them and move on to the next game. If Duke wins I'll tip my cap for a hard fought game and move on to the next game. No need to brag or boast, be happy, be disappointed but support and believe. That is all I'm suggesting.

[Dev11]

I am far from over confident but I will channel my inner Ozzie and be optimistic for a change. I believe a win is probable. Probable is not the same as definite and at least to me, leaves some margin for an alternative outcome.I don't think there is anything wrong with that or even being confident. Duke fans have hung their heads in shame for the better part of 50 years and now the team is playing very well, very smart and winning games. It is time for the fan base to show some confidence in the team and make some bold statements. I personally don't feel very probable is too bold. I'm not guaranteeing Duke will win. I just feel that they have a good chance/probability of doing so. I don't think Duke will beat the Hokies by 25, not on their home field, but I think they can win for sure. Again this isn't the same Duke team or the same Virginia Tech team. Duke is playing big-boy football, or at least closer to it than they have in years so we should embrace it and not be worried we are being disrespectful or that the opponent will be extra motivated because of something we say. I hope Tech does bring their A game and I hope that Duke does too. Then we will see whose better. No excuses just play. If Tech wins I'll tip my cap to them and move on to the next game. If Duke wins I'll tip my cap for a hard fought game and move on to the next game. No need to brag or boast, be happy, be disappointed but support and believe. That is all I'm suggesting.

I believe what the poster is getting at is that if you believe a Duke victory is 'probable,' then you think the gamblers should be favoring Duke. Duke is something like a 9 point underdog right now. That's a pretty wide discrepancy between what you and an industry that is very good at getting the numbers right think.

Also, I'd say that the average fan will do more than tip the cap and move on if we win this week. Perhaps to the faces of the hosts, but to each other here, there will be much rejoicing over the elusive 6th win.

I admire your humble optimism.

[mkline09]

I believe what the poster is getting at is that if you believe a Duke victory is 'probable,' then you think the gamblers should be favoring Duke. Duke is something like a 9 point underdog right now. That's a pretty wide discrepancy between what you and an industry that is very good at getting the numbers right think.

Also, I'd say that the average fan will do more than tip the cap and move on if we win this week. Perhaps to the faces of the hosts, but to each other here, there will be much rejoicing over the elusive 6th win.

I admire your humble optimism.

My use of probability has little to do with gamblers, as I am not one, and more to do with just sheer chance. Perhaps that is how it was taken or how probability is used but I'm using it in a more general sense. In years past Duke has been so bad I'd say they had little to no chance of winning this game, but I think there is a strong chance that they can win this year. I don't care, or pretend to understand what the boys in Vegas think, I look at the game based on this team versus that team and I've seen both play and I have to say I like Duke's team and thus their chance.

I am not one to brag and have many friends who are Va Tech fans so I won't be rubbing this game in anyone's face if Duke wins. But understand that is often the inclination of other fans cause that is just what being a fan of sports entails. As long as it is good natured and not just mean spirited have at it. Some can take it others can't. I was, coming into the season, not optimistic about Duke's odds of getting six wins but having seen them play in every game I've seen a real change in the direction of the program and the know how of the players to win. Cut sees it too, hence that is why I feel there is a strong probability. To achieve you must first believe and this team is actually believing and I say we should too. I certainly don't mean to slight Va Tech's chances. They have a very good probability too, but they aren't so far better than Duke right now where I can't say about the same thing about Duke. If any of that makes sense.

[OldPhiKap]

Gambling lines are simple business propositions, determined to draw a roughly equal amount of dollars waged on either side of the equation so the house can squeeze a transactional profit without being outcome-determinative. It is not meant to be predictive.

I would like to see stats on the percentage of teams who "beat the spread" versus those who "cover" -- should be about equal, no?

(Recognize: I am a poly sci major and not a math guy).

Assuming that's roughly true, though, it means that about 50% of betters are wagering that VT wins by 10 or more. An equal number are wagering that they do not. Among the latter category are such results as VT winning by a small margin all the way up to us routing them.

[Bluedog]

I would like to see stats on the percentage of teams who "beat the spread" versus those who "cover" -- should be about equal, no?

Here's Duke's results:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/teams/team-page.cfm/team/duke

Covered spread in every game except Stanford. Underdog vs Wake by 2.5 pts and Pk vs UVa. By definition for every team that beat the spread the other team did not, no? So, it's got to be even unless I'm misunderstanding the terminology (which is certainly possible).

[wilson]

By definition for every team that beat the spread the other team did not, no? So, it's got to be even unless I'm misunderstanding the terminology (which is certainly possible).I think you're misunderstanding slightly. In almost every game, either one team covers, or the other beats the spread.
Example: Duke plays Va Tech as 9.5-point underdog and loses by 8 points. Then, Duke would beat the spread, but VA Tech would have failed to cover (Duke lost by fewer than 9.5 points, while VA Tech failed to win by the appointed margin).
Exceptions would be when the spread is given in whole points, instead of half points (although that would be why you so frequently see the spreads given in .5-point increments), or when there's inordinate betting on one side, moving the spread significantly before game time, and a large number of bets fall in between two spreads; Example: Duke opens as 9.5-point 'dog, attracts a lot of bets, the spread decreases to 7 points, and then Duke loses by 8. Then Duke beats the spread in some bets, while VA Tech covers in others.

[jafarr1]

I cannot remember if it was a punt or kick-off return, but Anthony Young-Wiseman made a very nice open field tackle on a Virginia returner. Issac Blakeney is a beast, but there are other guys capable of making a play.

Didn't mean to imply that we didn't have others capable of making a play, only that Blakeney has been remarkable enough that other teams are going to start specifically scheming against him on punt returns.

[Reilly]

Gambling lines are simple business propositions, determined to draw a roughly equal amount of dollars waged on either side of the equation so the house can squeeze a transactional profit without being outcome-determinative. It is not meant to be predictive. ....

1. I'd always heard that -- the house wants equal action on both sides. On The Devils Den message board before the Alabama game, however, there was a very interesting discussion about all this by some who seemed to be in the know, and who indicated that it is not always the case that Vegas wants equal action on both sides. Sometimes, Vegas picks a side, and wants to induce the betting public to pick the other side -- apparently that's how the *big* profits are made. The discussion came up in the context of "why is Alabama only favored by 24 over Duke" (which I thought was crazily, insanely low ... and which our 49-point deficit proved me right).

2. To the extent Vegas *is* trying to get equal action on each side, whereas the line is not meant to be exactly predictive, it would be pegged to be predictive of what the public at large thinks the actual difference is between the two teams, wouldn't it?

[mike88]

Gambling lines are simple business propositions, determined to draw a roughly equal amount of dollars waged on either side of the equation so the house can squeeze a transactional profit without being outcome-determinative. It is not meant to be predictive.

I would like to see stats on the percentage of teams who "beat the spread" versus those who "cover" -- should be about equal, no?

(Recognize: I am a poly sci major and not a math guy).

Assuming that's roughly true, though, it means that about 50% of betters are wagering that VT wins by 10 or more. An equal number are wagering that they do not. Among the latter category are such results as VT winning by a small margin all the way up to us routing them.

The idea of prediction markets is that the relative "action" on both sides of a wager ARE predictive of the outcome. There is now a fair bit of empirical research in this area, particularly from prediction markets for elections, and they seem to perform better than polling in advance of the "event"

[OldPhiKap]

1. I'd always heard that -- the house wants equal action on both sides. On The Devils Den message board before the Alabama game, however, there was a very interesting discussion about all this by some who seemed to be in the know, and who indicated that it is not always the case that Vegas wants equal action on both sides. Sometimes, Vegas picks a side, and wants to induce the betting public to pick the other side -- apparently that's how the *big* profits are made. The discussion came up in the context of "why is Alabama only favored by 24 over Duke" (which I thought was crazily, insanely low ... and which our 49-point deficit proved me right).

2. To the extent Vegas *is* trying to get equal action on each side, whereas the line is not meant to be exactly predictive, it would be pegged to be predictive of what the public at large thinks the actual difference is between the two teams, wouldn't it?

1. Interesting, not sure how that would all get coordinated but there are certainly folks who know more than I do about that subject. (Okay, all subjects but that one in particular).

2. Maybe, maybe not. If I bet $5 for Duke to cover 9.5, but five of you bet $1 that it doesn't happen, have we really been predictive? Or have we set a line where it is worth my wager to bet one way with an equal amount of money (not necessarily people) willing to go the other way? So while I would say there is some correlation between odds and predictive intent, it is not a lock-step thing.

I would be curious to see the info referenced by mike88 to get a better understanding as well.

[Gewebe14]

1. Interesting, not sure how that would all get coordinated but there are certainly folks who know more than I do about that subject. (Okay, all subjects but that one in particular).

2. Maybe, maybe not. If I bet $5 for Duke to cover 9.5, but five of you bet $1 that it doesn't happen, have we really been predictive? Or have we set a line where it is worth my wager to bet one way with an equal amount of money (not necessarily people) willing to go the other way? So while I would say there is some correlation between odds and predictive intent, it is not a lock-step thing.

I would be curious to see the info referenced by mike88 to get a better understanding as well.

Vegas tries to maximize profits - they do not always try to balance bets between the two teams. The house will adjust the lines to encourage action on one side or the other if they have a particular insight on a certain game. You can see this in public betting share and spread movements across weeks - i.e. sometimes the vast majority of the action is on one team (say hypothetically for Duke +10 this week) but despite this, Vegas might move the line to Duke +12, (effectively encouraging more bets on Duke) if they have a view that V-Tech is highly likely to cover even a 12pt spread. This approach, I believe, is much more rare than what they normally do which is balancing the bets to ensure they make a profit no matter which team wins on the VIG.

[Bob Green]

Didn't mean to imply that we didn't have others capable of making a play, only that Blakeney has been remarkable enough that other teams are going to start specifically scheming against him on punt returns.

I used your post as a vehicle to give Anthony Young-Wiseman props for a great open field tackle. I wasn't trying to call you out and apologize if that is how my post came across.

[mike88]

1. Interesting, not sure how that would all get coordinated but there are certainly folks who know more than I do about that subject. (Okay, all subjects but that one in particular).

2. Maybe, maybe not. If I bet $5 for Duke to cover 9.5, but five of you bet $1 that it doesn't happen, have we really been predictive? Or have we set a line where it is worth my wager to bet one way with an equal amount of money (not necessarily people) willing to go the other way? So while I would say there is some correlation between odds and predictive intent, it is not a lock-step thing.

I would be curious to see the info referenced by mike88 to get a better understanding as well.

I would start with the Wikipedia entry on prediction markets. It references a paper by Justin Wolfers (economist now at U Michigan) on interpretation of prediction market prices (akin to the betting line) as probabilities. Then check out inTrade or other of the prediction market sites mentioned there- pretty interesting stuff