MBB: 2012-13 Roster & Projected Starting Line up/Rotation

[Newton_14]

Time to close the other thread and start fresh with discussions on the upcoming hoops season. Lots of new faces. Going to be a great season. The roster below is from GoDuke.com. (http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&SPID=1845&SPSID=22727)




No
Name
Position
Height
Weight
Yr


2
Quinn Cook
G
6'0
175
SO


3
Tyler Thornton
G
6'1
195
Jr


5
Mason Plumlee
F
6'10
235
Sr


12
Alex Murphy
F
6'8
220
RFr


13
Rodney Hood
F
6'8
210
So


14
Rasheed Suliamon
G
6'4
190
Fr


15
Josh Hairston
F
6'7
235
Jr


20
Andre Dawkins
G
6'4
200
Sr




21
Amile Jefferson
F
6'8
195
Fr


30
Seth Curry
G
6'2
180
RSr


34
Ryan Kelly
F
6'11
230
Sr


40
Marshall Plumlee
F
6'11
225
RFr


52
Todd Zafirovski
F
6'9
240
Sr
































Very versatile roster. Lots of Redshirts which is kind of odd for a Duke team. The key of course is how many of the guys are ready to contribute. If 8 or 9 of the guys are capable of producing at a level pleasing to K, he will have multiple options with big, medium, and small line ups. Andre and Rodney will be practice players to help push the regulars which will help for sure.

Based on everything we know right now, I would expect the early season line up and rotation of the following. (Obviously in the lesser opponent games early on, K will play everyone at least a few minutes. My projection is based on tough games in the pre-Christmas part of the schedule).

So here goes.
Starting 5
Quinn Cook- PG
Seth Curry- SG
Alex Murphy- WF
Ryan Kelly- PF
Mason Plumlee- C

Subs
Rasheed Suliamon- First off the bench, backing up all 3 of Quinn, Seth, Alex
Tyler Thornton- In the main rotation backing up both Quinn and Alex. (I still love Tyler as a backup SF. He plays that role well, and is good at defending taller guards/wings
Amile Jefferson- Backing up both Ryan and Mason. If he subs in for Mason, Ryan plays the 5 on Defense, Amile plays the 5 on offense. Amile plays the 4 on both ends if in with Mason. Amile may also see some time at the 3 spot. His handle is good. His jumper is not. Has a decent set shot from 3. Can likely defend SF's without issue though.
Josh Hairston- Backing up the PF position. Could possible be ahead of Amile early on due to team defense and being a veteran. Time will tell
Marshall Plumlee- Backing up Mason and Ryan at the 5 spot. Could possibly move ahead of Josh and Amile in the pecking order if he plays well. Time will tell.

So discuss away and don't rip me. Just my early thoughts based on all the information I have to go on. I have seen all of the guys play in person at least once.

[Kedsy]

The roster below is from GoDuke.com. (http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&SPID=1845&SPSID=22727)

Thanks for starting this thread. I can't wait for the season to begin. One thing that the linked roster doesn't seem to show is that (as we all know) Rodney and Andre are redshirting this season, meaning we have 10 recruited scholarship players for 2012-13. Which means any discussion of the rotation probably needs to acknowledge that two deserving players aren't going to play very much, at least in close games after January 1. To me, that's one of the biggest question marks for the upcoming season -- who won't crack the rotation? My early guess is Josh and Marshall, but as you point out, either one of them could overcome Amile for 8th man.

I believe our three seniors will all get as many minutes as they can handle. I know some people think Seth is going to lose minutes but I couldn't disagree more. For one thing, other than Ryan, he's our only proven perimeter shooter. Any of Quinn, Tyler, and Rasheed might emerge as a shooter, but none are proven, and all seem a bit iffy in my mind. That's why I think Seth will be out there for close to 35 mpg and probably be our leading scorer.

I'm assuming Alex will start and play big minutes (25+) at SF, although obviously he'll have to prove himself. I'm hoping Rasheed can live up to his reputation as a plus defender, and play 25+ mpg as well, at all three perimeter positions. If he can, and if Quinn grabs the starting PG job and runs with it, that would seem to leave Tyler as a 10 to 15 mpg guy, which I think is the optimal way to use him -- as a high energy help defender.



Amile Jefferson- Backing up both Ryan and Mason. If he subs in for Mason, Ryan plays the 5 on Defense, Amile plays the 5 on offense. Amile plays the 4 on both ends if in with Mason. Amile may also see some time at the 3 spot. His handle is good. His jumper is not. Has a decent set shot from 3. Can likely defend SF's without issue though.

Why do you make the bolded statement with such confidence? I'm not saying it's wrong, but I don't have any feel for whether Amile has quick enough feet to defend SFs. I hope he does. It would make me more confident that he'll make the rotation ahead of Josh and Marshall, because neither of them has that sort of versatility. Still, I'd be surprised if any of the three of them exceed 15 mpg on a regular basis.


Going to be a great season.

This is the key statement in your post, and I wholeheartedly agree. I am feeling very good about the upcoming season.

[Greg_Newton]

(I still love Tyler as a backup SF. He plays that role well, and is good at defending taller guards/wings)

Agreed; assuming Cook continues to develop, I think this is a big part of what Tyler's role will be going forward. A shot in the arm that can fill in anywhere we need a boost.

I have a hard time seeing him only get 10-15 minutes as a JR/emotional leader, though, after getting 20+ as a SO. My guess is that Sheed will initially struggle a bit more than some expect to be more than a great perimeter defender - which is fine - and that he and Thornton's minutes will be fairly similar. But that's kind of semantics.

Amile vs. Josh should be an interesting battle. I can't imagine that both he and Josh will get meaningful minutes in most games, so it will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Could depend on matchups, I suppose - Amile for length/quickness in the post, Josh for bulk/physicality?

However, if Quinn and Alex can just do enough to justify starting, I'll be a happy guy. Everything else is pretty secondary for me.

[licc85]

I agree with that rotation for the most part. I would have put TT in the starting lineup ahead of Quinn at the start of this summer, but it seems quite apparent that Quinn has really benefited from a healthy summer of training and competition and now looks ready to become the point guard that we've been searching for since . . . I'd say Kyrie (if he had played a whole year), but really, since . . . . Duhon? Has it been that long since we've had a pure point? Should be exciting to finally have a conventional distributor for once.

I expect the 3 seniors to get 30+ minutes a game, and also be the top 3 scorers on the team, with Alex Murphy being the 4th scoring option. (Although I would not be surprised to see Quinn average double digits in scoring as well) I really love how many scoring options we have this year. It should be another Duke squad that regularly has 4 or 5 guys in double figures. Those teams are always fun to watch.

I'm worried our expectations for Rasheed might be a bit too high. I think he averaged only 5 points on his NC Pro-Am team. His offense is not going to be the reason he gets minutes this year. It will be for defense, and he's going to have to prove that's he's a better defender than Tyler Thornton, which I'm not totally sure is going to happen as a true freshman despite his physical tools. Therefore, I don't think he is the team's 6th man. I think that spot goes to Tyler because of his vocal leadership and toughness on defense, two things that Coach K values quite highly. Rasheed will certainly still be in the rotation, but probably will play fewer minutes than TT.

I do agree that Amile probably passes Josh on the depth chart because of his versatility on defense, but I don't think his handle is as good you say. I would not feel comfortable with him playing the 3 on offense against ACC small forwards. I think he is in there purely for defensive and rebounding purposes in his first year, since he is most likely capable of defending both post positions and wing forwards.

Marshall also likely passes Josh on the depth chart due to his size and athleticism. Seeing as how Amile is an upgrade over Josh in nearly every way, I don't see how Josh is going to get significant minutes.

Another interesting thing is that Andre is still listed on the active roster, seeing as he's as much a part of the team this year as Rodney Hood is, I 'm surprised to see his name there.

[Newton_14]

Thanks for starting this thread. I can't wait for the season to begin. One thing that the linked roster doesn't seem to show is that (as we all know) Rodney and Andre are redshirting this season, meaning we have 10 recruited scholarship players for 2012-13. Which means any discussion of the rotation probably needs to acknowledge that two deserving players aren't going to play very much, at least in close games after January 1. To me, that's one of the biggest question marks for the upcoming season -- who won't crack the rotation? My early guess is Josh and Marshall, but as you point out, either one of them could overcome Amile for 8th man.



Why do you make the bolded statement with such confidence? I'm not saying it's wrong, but I don't have any feel for whether Amile has quick enough feet to defend SFs. I hope he does. It would make me more confident that he'll make the rotation ahead of Josh and Marshall, because neither of them has that sort of versatility. Still, I'd be surprised if any of the three of them exceed 15 mpg on a regular basis.


Kedsy, after seeing Amile in person (and forget the fact it was summer league. That has nothing to do with my impression) this kid is actually really quick and agile, with great length. I feel certain he can bother wing players. I was also pleasantly surprised at his handle. I felt his handle was stronger than Hood's actually. But I know your question was defense related. As quick as he appears to be with the eye test, even if he gets beat off the dribble, he can recover with the length to still bother the shot. I would like Greg Newton to weigh in with his thoughts on this as well as he saw him even more than I did. Now, he was gawd awful at trying to shoot 3's off the bounce, not his forte at all, but agility wise I thought he looked comfortable defending on the wing, and handling the rock on the perimeter. Not a 3 point threat by any stretch of the imagination.

Another thing that impressed me were angles he took getting to the rim, quickness in getting to the rym, craftiness in getting to the rim, and finishing with either hand once he got there. The Jamison comparisons are accurate in all of the above. ANy scoring he does will come in the paint.

I have no idea how quickly he can grasp the Duke Team Defense schemes and as we all know, if he can't grasp that, we will not see very much of all those great qualities I mentioned above. Crossing fingers, toes, and saying Hail Mary's for Amile to master it early.

[Kedsy]

As quick as he appears to be with the eye test, even if he gets beat off the dribble, he can recover with the length to still bother the shot.

I trust your impressions. Despite the fact that Amile played his high school ball 10 minutes from my house, I've never seen him play in person. It's great to hear he has those skills.

In many ways the key to the upcoming season is the defensive ability of Rasheed, Alex, and Amile. If they can shut down the opposing wing players, and if Quinn is no longer a defensive liability at PG, then along with Seth's and Tyler's strong off-ball abilities, our defense will be up to Duke standards and our team will be really, really good.

Since none of the three of them (Rasheed, Alex, Amile) have played a single game at Duke, it remains to be seen how quickly they grasp the Duke team defensive concepts. But I have high hopes.

[ncexnyc]

I believe the PG position is Tyler’s until Quinn can show that he can not only play defense, but that he can provide the vocal leadership that Coach K insists upon.

Both Mason and Ryan are locks for the center and power forward positions. A large part of how well Mason does this year will depend on which PG gets the lion’s share of minutes. As high as I’ve been on Tyler, it is obvious to me that Quinn has the superior skills as far as penetrating and passing goes. Should Quinn get the gig, then I believe Mason will have a monster season and will lead the team in scoring.

It seems that Josh doesn’t get much love around here, but I like what I saw from him at the close of last season. I think he’ll push Ryan, which will be a good thing.

Many people are high on Seth, but in order for me to buy in on him, he’s going to have to show me he’s going to play like a dominant 5th year Senior. This team should be his and Mason’s and I want both of them to play like that.

It would appear that Alex has been penciled in as the SF. I haven’t seen much of him since last year so I don’t know what to expect. I hope players like Josh, Amile, and Rasheed are pushing him hard and that he doesn’t become complacent.

I’ve seen Rasheed play in several All-Star games and he appears to be a very heady, versatile kid. There seem to be a lot of people talking this young man up and I hope that he can live up to their lofty expectations.

Marshall has had a year in the system. How much court time he gets will depend on several factors. If he can handle the back-up role to big bother then he’ll see some decent minutes. If Josh or Amile can’t handle the back-up role for Ryan then Marshall might see even more minutes. Again all of this depends on Marshall actually being able to hold up his end of the bargain.

[tommy]

I believe the PG position is Tyler’s until Quinn can show that he can not only play defense, but that he can provide the vocal leadership that Coach K insists upon.

Both Mason and Ryan are locks for the center and power forward positions. A large part of how well Mason does this year will depend on which PG gets the lion’s share of minutes. As high as I’ve been on Tyler, it is obvious to me that Quinn has the superior skills as far as penetrating and passing goes. Should Quinn get the gig, then I believe Mason will have a monster season and will lead the team in scoring.

Which is a big reason why I think Quinn will get the gig. We are going to need Mason to score and otherwise put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses, as he's going to be our primary inside scorer. Tyler simply hasn't shown the ability to effectively feed the post, or, frankly, to do much of anything to cause the defense any concern about what he's doing at that end. Quinn has, on a bum knee, and he's only going to be stronger this year and be more effective in creating scoring opportunities for Mason.


It seems that Josh doesn’t get much love around here, but I like what I saw from him at the close of last season. I think he’ll push Ryan, which will be a good thing.

I love Josh's energy and willingness to mix it up, but other than that, what did you see from him last year that you liked? I didn't see a ton in terms of skills or athleticism, and he's undersized. I would be thrilled if he really has worked on his game this summer and comes back a different player, with a more reliable shot and better explosiveness around the basket, but I'll have to see it to believe it.

Based on his play last year, I don't see any respects in which Josh is going to "push" Ryan. He'll be a backup big man, and I expect the question to be where in the pecking order of reserve bigs will Josh be.



It would appear that Alex has been penciled in as the SF. I haven’t seen much of him since last year so I don’t know what to expect. I hope players like Josh, Amile, and Rasheed are pushing him hard and that he doesn’t become complacent.

Alex had to sit an entire year last year, watching a team that apparently could've really used some of his skills really struggle at times due its lack of a player like him, including the end of the year. He's gotta be ready to just bust out of that locker room every day, raring to go. I can't imagine how he could become complacent.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I really like that starting five that Newton proposed... for offense. Defensively, it's not exactly a juggernaut. I think our frontcourt of Kelly and Plumlee are both our best defensive and offense options. In the backcourt, however, a combination of Quinn, Seth, and Alex could be leaky, especially if we need a stopper out there (see McCollum, CJ). I think that Quinn, Seth, and Alex may start in the beginning of the season, but Sheed is going to take over Alex's spot as the season progresses. With Sheed's rep of being the best defender already (without playing a game), I find it hard to believe that he won't start. Bring in firepower from off the bench with Alex and Amile. But to help patch up a shaky defense, start Sheed.

Offense wins games, defense wins tournaments. Let's win tournaments.

[ncexnyc]

Which is a big reason why I think Quinn will get the gig. We are going to need Mason to score and otherwise put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses, as he's going to be our primary inside scorer. Tyler simply hasn't shown the ability to effectively feed the post, or, frankly, to do much of anything to cause the defense any concern about what he's doing at that end. Quinn has, on a bum knee, and he's only going to be stronger this year and be more effective in creating scoring opportunities for Mason.



I love Josh's energy and willingness to mix it up, but other than that, what did you see from him last year that you liked? I didn't see a ton in terms of skills or athleticism, and he's undersized. I would be thrilled if he really has worked on his game this summer and comes back a different player, with a more reliable shot and better explosiveness around the basket, but I'll have to see it to believe it.

Based on his play last year, I don't see any respects in which Josh is going to "push" Ryan. He'll be a backup big man, and I expect the question to be where in the pecking order of reserve bigs will Josh be.





Alex had to sit an entire year last year, watching a team that apparently could've really used some of his skills really struggle at times due its lack of a player like him, including the end of the year. He's gotta be ready to just bust out of that locker room every day, raring to go. I can't imagine how he could become complacent.

It's not just about skill and talent at Duke as we've seen by Tyler getting the starting gig last year. Ryan has a world of talent, but at times last year he just seemed to disappear. I like Josh's willingness to mix it up under the boards and effort and desire always score high with Coach K. I specifically liked how Josh ran the open court at the end of the season and i believe in a Quinn Cook led fast paced offense, Josh would excell.

As for Alex, well it's anybody's guess what we'll get from him this year. Let's remember Seth had a year under his belt at Liberty and then sat out a whole year and the next season he wasn't even our sixth man at the start of the year. A lot is being expected of Alex and while he may be itching to go, it doesn't hurt to have someone breathing down his neck for the SF job. While it's nice to pencil in a proven starter like Mason, I'd rather see an unproven player like Alex have to earn his spot and I think the competition for a starting gig will be a good thing for the team.

[Kedsy]

With Sheed's rep of being the best defender already (without playing a game), I find it hard to believe that he won't start.

Problem with Rasheed starting over Alex is we'll be awfully small on the perimeter again. Plus, if he's guarding the other team's SF, his defensive acumen is not doing so much to stop penetration from the opposing guards, which was really our problem last year. Alex is tall enough to bother most SFs, assuming we're containing the guards. If Rasheed is our 6th man, he can come in at any of three positions depending on which opposing player is eating us up (assuming he really is our defensive juggernaut). If he plays 25 mpg, who cares if he starts?

Put another way, you may be right about Rasheed starting at SF, but if you are we're probably going to be hearing a lot of grumbling here at DBR.


It's not just about skill and talent at Duke as we've seen by Tyler getting the starting gig last year. Ryan has a world of talent, but at times last year he just seemed to disappear. I like Josh's willingness to mix it up under the boards and effort and desire always score high with Coach K. I specifically liked how Josh ran the open court at the end of the season and i believe in a Quinn Cook led fast paced offense, Josh would excell.

I don't know what you mean when you say Josh will "push" Ryan, but I would bet cash money that Josh doesn't get half the minutes Ryan gets in 2012-13. I'll be surprised if Josh plays even as much as one third of the minutes Ryan plays.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Problem with Rasheed starting over Alex is we'll be awfully small on the perimeter again. Plus, if he's guarding the other team's SF, his defensive acumen is not doing so much to stop penetration from the opposing guards, which was really our problem last year. Alex is tall enough to bother most SFs, assuming we're containing the guards. If Rasheed is our 6th man, he can come in at any of three positions depending on which opposing player is eating us up (assuming he really is our defensive juggernaut). If he plays 25 mpg, who cares if he starts?

Put another way, you may be right about Rasheed starting at SF, but if you are we're probably going to be hearing a lot of grumbling here at DBR.

Has being small ever really stopped Duke players from playing the 3? In the last 10 teams, we've probably had more 3-guard line-ups than conventional teams. Given, a big reason for this was we had the Landlord in the paint for 4 of those years, but in some years ('06-'07, '018-'09) we didn't have a defensive juggernaut in the post. I don't know anything about Alex other than his rep for being a Kyle Singler-type player on offense, and his body / skill set is perfect for the 3. But, again, I'm really curious about the defense. This team can score, no doubt, but can it defend? That's the true question.

[Kedsy]

But, again, I'm really curious about the defense. This team can score, no doubt, but can it defend? That's the true question.

I agree, for this year's team, defense is the true question. For the team to reach its full potential, Rasheed, Alex, and hopefully Amile all have to be plus defenders (though it also remains to be seen how much Amile will play). Obviously we won't know the answer before the team gets out on the court.


Has being small ever really stopped Duke players from playing the 3?

You're right that Duke under Coach K has rarely shied away from playing a 6'4/6'5 player at SF (or even shorter on occasion, e.g., DeMarcus Nelson, who was listed at 6'3 but turned out to be shorter). But if you look at our backcourts that accompanied those 6'4 SFs, we've usually had good size at SG and PG. Scheyer, G Henderson, Ewing, Redick, etc., all had pretty good size for SGs. Duhon, Dockery, Paulus, Smith had at least decent size for PGs. Last season's late-season lineup of Tyler/Seth/Austin was probably the shortest perimeter ever under K, and it was part of our defensive problem. A lineup of Quinn/Seth/Rasheed would be even shorter.

I'm not saying the Quinn/Seth/Rasheed lineup will never see the court; my guess is it will in appropriate situations. But I don't think it will be our regular lineup.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree, for this year's team, defense is the true question. For the team to reach its full potential, Rasheed, Alex, and hopefully Amile all have to be plus defenders (though it also remains to be seen how much Amile will play). Obviously we won't know the answer before the team gets out on the court.



You're right that Duke under Coach K has rarely shied away from playing a 6'4/6'5 player at SF (or even shorter on occasion, e.g., DeMarcus Nelson, who was listed at 6'3 but turned out to be shorter). But if you look at our backcourts that accompanied those 6'4 SFs, we've usually had good size at SG and PG. Scheyer, G Henderson, Ewing, Redick, etc., all had pretty good size for SGs. Duhon, Dockery, Paulus, Smith had at least decent size for PGs. Last season's late-season lineup of Tyler/Seth/Austin was probably the shortest perimeter ever under K, and it was part of our defensive problem. A lineup of Quinn/Seth/Rasheed would be even shorter.

I'm not saying the Quinn/Seth/Rasheed lineup will never see the court; my guess is it will in appropriate situations. But I don't think it will be our regular lineup.

You're right about the larger 2 that we usually have accompanying the smaller 3. Quinn is listed at a generous 6'1", Seth is a legit 6'2" (small for a 2), and Sheed is a legit 6'3". That is indeed small.

Interesting story about Demarcus: when I was in school, he was a year younger than me. We had class in the same building on Central and would often ride together on the bus back to West. Two things struck me as incredible. One was how developed DMarc's body was. Olympians would be jealous of that body that somehow had muscles growing out of every available space. The second was his height. I am a legit 6'3" (and play basketball like I'm 5'10") and I was a legit 3 inches taller than DMarc. Considering he played the 4 his junior year, that is just incredible. If I had to guard the Deon Thompsons and Jeff Allans of the world, I'd be crushed in 2 minutes. Props to DMarc. You can't teach height, but apparently you can teach weight-lifting, conditioning, and building muscle.

[ncexnyc]

Problem with Rasheed starting over Alex is we'll be awfully small on the perimeter again. Plus, if he's guarding the other team's SF, his defensive acumen is not doing so much to stop penetration from the opposing guards, which was really our problem last year. Alex is tall enough to bother most SFs, assuming we're containing the guards. If Rasheed is our 6th man, he can come in at any of three positions depending on which opposing player is eating us up (assuming he really is our defensive juggernaut). If he plays 25 mpg, who cares if he starts?

Put another way, you may be right about Rasheed starting at SF, but if you are we're probably going to be hearing a lot of grumbling here at DBR.



I don't know what you mean when you say Josh will "push" Ryan, but I would bet cash money that Josh doesn't get half the minutes Ryan gets in 2012-13. I'll be surprised if Josh plays even as much as one third of the minutes Ryan plays.

Things don't always play out like they're written. Not many would have predicted Paulus riding the pine his senior year. After the Wake game of 2010, I don't imagine there were many around here praising the tandem of Thomas and Zoubek. In 2011, I'm not sure many would have expected Nolan to come up with the MONSTER year he had. And last, but not least I don't remember anyone touting TT as our starting PG. IIRC Seth Curry at the PG spot was all the rage. Yes, I'm aware that some of these players getting major minutes, especially Josh is considered by many of you as a stretch, but stranger things have happened so before you heap your blanket dismassal on my thoughts you should take a minute or two and look back at history.

[CLW]

I think we are likely looking at:

1 Thornton
2 Curry
3 Murphy
4 Kelly
5 MP2

Bench: Cook (backup 1); Suliamon (backup 2/3); MP3 (backup 5); Jefferson (backup 4)

to start the season.

However, by the end of the season I believe our best lineup will be:

1 Cook
2 Suliamon
3 Murphy
4 Kelly
5 MP2

Bench: Curry (backup 2/3); Thornton (backup 1); MP3 (backup 5); Jefferson (backup 4)


I really like Josh but unless Jefferson/MP3 don't live up to expectations I don't see him getting major rotation minutes this season. I also see Suliamon eventally replacing Curry in the starting unit (Curry would become the 6 man providing instant offense off the bench). I would expect Cook to eventually overtake Thornton as well due to the increased athleticism. However, Cook is clearly going to have to improve his D and become more vocal to take over Thornton at the 1.

[Kedsy]

Things don't always play out like they're written. Not many would have predicted Paulus riding the pine his senior year. After the Wake game of 2010, I don't imagine there were many around here praising the tandem of Thomas and Zoubek. In 2011, I'm not sure many would have expected Nolan to come up with the MONSTER year he had. And last, but not least I don't remember anyone touting TT as our starting PG. IIRC Seth Curry at the PG spot was all the rage. Yes, I'm aware that some of these players getting major minutes, especially Josh is considered by many of you as a stretch, but stranger things have happened so before you heap your blanket dismassal on my thoughts you should take a minute or two and look back at history.

Paulus getting benched in 2009 definitely surprised me. I didn't expect Tyler to start last season, but I did think he'd see decent minutes as a defensive spark. I was praising the Lance/Z tandem both before and after the 2010 Wake game, and I did expect Nolan to have a monster year in 2011. So I was 2 for 4 in your examples, which I suppose makes your point reasonably well.

That said, I'll still bet cash money that Ryan plays at least twice as many minutes as Josh this coming season.

[Kedsy]

I also see Suliamon eventally replacing Curry in the starting unit (Curry would become the 6 man providing instant offense off the bench).

I would also bet cash money that Seth starts every game (in which he is uninjured) this season. I suppose it's possible he doesn't start one game if K has to make a point about something, but I don't see anybody replacing him as a regular starter. In addition to being a senior and a returning All-ACC player, he also happens to be our only proven outside shooting threat other than Ryan.

Also, based on history our late-season rotation is very unlikely to contain 9 players. In all probability, two of Josh/Marshall/Amile are not going to play that much once January rolls around.

[ncexnyc]

Paulus getting benched in 2009 definitely surprised me. I didn't expect Tyler to start last season, but I did think he'd see decent minutes as a defensive spark. I was praising the Lance/Z tandem both before and after the 2010 Wake game, and I did expect Nolan to have a monster year in 2011. So I was 2 for 4 in your examples, which I suppose makes your point reasonably well.

That said, I'll still bet cash money that Ryan plays at least twice as many minutes as Josh this coming season.

A long, long time ago I learned the hard way, bet with your head, not your heart. So while I love Tyler and Josh more than most on this board I'll pass on your offer.:D

[jv001]

Paulus getting benched in 2009 definitely surprised me. I didn't expect Tyler to start last season, but I did think he'd see decent minutes as a defensive spark. I was praising the Lance/Z tandem both before and after the 2010 Wake game, and I did expect Nolan to have a monster year in 2011. So I was 2 for 4 in your examples, which I suppose makes your point reasonably well.

That said, I'll still bet cash money that Ryan plays at least twice as many minutes as Josh this coming season.

And if I was a betting man, I would make that same bet. Ryan's going to have a very good year, imho. In Duke's switching man-to-man defense, size does matter. Last year we were hurt by not being able to stop penetration and getting caught in mis-matches. So we better hope that Alex is the real deal and can play meaningful minutes at the #3, that Rasheed can play on the ball defense and we get the ball to Mason down low. I'm waiting to see if this squad plays Duke defense. GoDuke!

[CLW]

I would also bet cash money that Seth starts every game (in which he is uninjured) this season. I suppose it's possible he doesn't start one game if K has to make a point about something, but I don't see anybody replacing him as a regular starter. In addition to being a senior and a returning All-ACC player, he also happens to be our only proven outside shooting threat other than Ryan.

Also, based on history our late-season rotation is very unlikely to contain 9 players. In all probability, two of Josh/Marshall/Amile are not going to play that much once January rolls around.

Perhaps I'm buying the "hype" but I just think Suliamon could provide something Curry cannot (a more athletic perimeter defender and someone who can create offense on his own via the drive). I'm guessing Curry's roll is similar to that of Scheyer coming off the bench his SO season.

I agree that I could easily see 2 of the 3 "backup" bigs falling out of the rotation by the end of the season. I believe that will most likely be Jefferson. MP3 can play the 5 and we could go "small" and slide Murphy to a 4 in a "Singler" type roll and play with 3 guards for periods of time (if Kelly MP2 get in foul trouble and/or need a blow). I don't think we could do that with Jefferson. On the other hand, Jefferson could fill in some minutes at the 3. I'd give the edge right now to Plumlee just because he has been at Duke for a year so he should (in theory) be ahead of Jefferson in terms of understanding the concepts and adjusting to the college game.

[Kedsy]

Perhaps I'm buying the "hype" but I just think Suliamon could provide something Curry cannot (a more athletic perimeter defender and someone who can create offense on his own via the drive). I'm guessing Curry's roll is similar to that of Scheyer coming off the bench his SO season.

Trust me, I've bought into the hype as well. I'm counting on Rasheed to be our defensive stopper despite the fact he's yet to play a minute in college ball. I expect him to play 25+ minutes a game. That said, I think he makes more sense as a 6th man than Seth does. I also think, all other things being close to equal, K values having a senior on the court. Plus, as I said before, Seth will be our primary outside shooter.

I don't think the 2008 Jon Scheyer comparison is apt. First of all, he was only a sophomore, not a senior. Second, the player he stepped aside for, Gerald Henderson, for whatever reason always played much better as a starter than as a reserve (K said as much when he made the decision). Since Rasheed doesn't project to start at the beginning of the season, he probably won't have a chance to prove he plays better in a starting role, and there would be no reason to ask a senior to step aside for a freshman.

I'm also not certain Rasheed will be creating his own offense all that often his freshman year. As someone pointed out elsewhere, Rasheed didn't even score much at the NC Pro-Am, and if you don't put up numbers in that no-D environment, it stands to reason you may not be ready be a scorer in the ACC.

[Big Pappa]

Trust me, I've bought into the hype as well. I'm counting on Rasheed to be our defensive stopper despite the fact he's yet to play a minute in college ball. I expect him to play 25+ minutes a game. That said, I think he makes more sense as a 6th man than Seth does. I also think, all other things being close to equal, K values having a senior on the court. Plus, as I said before, Seth will be our primary outside shooter.

It's absolutely INSANE to me the lack of credit that Seth gets on this board. Of the returners from last years team he is 1st in MPG, 1st in PPG, 1st in APG, 1st in SPG, 1st in FT%, 2nd in 3FG%, 1st in RPG among perimeter players. He was also an All-ACC performer and he is a senior. It amazes me how so many on this board are willing to put him on the bench so quickly, especially in favor of someone who (although admittedly talented and I personally have high hope for him) has logged 0 college minutes.

Seth is a VERY GOOD basketball player and I believe he will lead us in MPG and PPG, among other categories, this year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

It's absolutely INSANE to me the lack of credit that Seth gets on this board. Of the returners from last years team he is 1st in MPG, 1st in PPG, 1st in APG, 1st in SPG, 1st in FT%, 2nd in 3FG%, 1st in RPG among perimeter players. He was also an All-ACC performer and he is a senior. It amazes me how so many on this board are willing to put him on the bench so quickly, especially in favor of someone who (although admittedly talented and I personally have high hope for him) has logged 0 college minutes.

Seth is a VERY GOOD basketball player and I believe he will lead us in MPG and PPG, among other categories, this year.

No one is discrediting Seth's offensive skills. He will most likely lead our team in points and, along with Mason and Ryan, are our offensive leaders. But his defense can be suspect, and that is something that I really hope he has worked on during the off-season (I don't consider 1st in steals to be considered good D - Battier has recorded less than a steal a game for the last 5 years). We're arguing about the backcourt line-up of Quinn, Seth, and Alex together - three players that aren't considered defensive players by any means.

I too like Seth and he will not only start, but be a major leader for this team.

[Starter]

I have a history of not being the biggest Kelly fan historically, but after watching them completely fall apart without him at the end of last season, I came around big-time and think he's integral to Duke's halfcourt game. I share with ncex some reservations that Kelly fits in well if Duke is running a more uptempo offense with Cook -- Kelly's facilitating skills worked well last year since there was typically nobody else that really offered that -- but I feel like he'll adjust. If he doesn't play over 30 minutes per game, I'll be absolutely stunned.

[cptnflash]

It's absolutely INSANE to me the lack of credit that Seth gets on this board. Of the returners from last years team he is 1st in MPG, 1st in PPG, 1st in APG, 1st in SPG, 1st in FT%, 2nd in 3FG%, 1st in RPG among perimeter players. He was also an All-ACC performer and he is a senior. It amazes me how so many on this board are willing to put him on the bench so quickly, especially in favor of someone who (although admittedly talented and I personally have high hope for him) has logged 0 college minutes.

Seth is a VERY GOOD basketball player and I believe he will lead us in MPG and PPG, among other categories, this year.

Completely agree. Keep in mind that in Seth's 3 years at Duke, he has been:

Year 1: a redshirt
Year 2: a sub / 3rd option
Year 3: a hybrid / sometimes point guard

He has never had the opportunity to be what he naturally is - a featured scorer. He will be that this year. He will crush.

I could not (repeat: COULD NOT) be more excited about this year's team. Especially because the pundits are succumbing to recency bias and projecting a 3rd place finish for us in the ACC. Let NC State (good luck with that) and UNC (hi, my name is...) deal with the expectations. Only two things can prevent us from winning the ACC easily this year: major injury (fingers crossed), and Quinn failing to win the starting point guard job (again, fingers crossed). As long as neither of those things happens, we'll have three all-conference players in our starting lineup in Seth, Ryan, and Mason, and we'll be much more versatile defensively than we were last year. And perhaps most importantly, our senior leaders should have an extra helping of motivation, given the way last season ended. This is their last chance to accomplish something special at Duke. I'm betting they make the most of it.

Go Devils!

[COYS]

Coach K always preaches defense, as everyone knows. However, in the debate over the point guard spot, I actually think offense will need to be considered, as well. As tough, tenacious, and vocal as Tyler is, he is only a mediocre on-ball defender (though a great off the ball defender), and is virtually invisible on the offensive end (no turnovers, but doesn't dime much and doesn't score much). It is my hope that he improves in both areas a lot, this season. On the offensive end, I hope that he has an improved catch-and-shoot three point shot, as that will be available to the team late in the shot clock on EVERY possession, as opposing defenses completely ignore him on the perimeter. I also hope his on the ball defense is a bit better with another year under his belt.

Despite all of that, I still think Quinn Cook will push Tyler into a slightly more limited role than last year. At the very least, this is my hope. Note that I don't hope this because I don't think Tyler brings value. He does. But I do think his value increases if he's able to play in bursts with wild abandon rather than save himself to survive 30 minutes on the court. Quinn was very good at running the offense last year, albeit in limited minutes. If Quinn can provide reasonably effective on ball pressure, his distribution abilities on the offensive end will out-weigh Tyler's defensive contributions, at least when it comes to earning starter's minutes, especially in the absence of Austin, who was capable of breaking down the defense on his own. Ryan Kelly and Seth are excellent spot-up shooters. Mason needs to get the ball in the post. Alex's game, from admittedly limited observation, seems to include lots of cuts and slashes top the basket. We will need Quinn to get these guys the ball in good scoring positions. Finally, if Quinn can control the offense, it takes the pressure off of a freshman Rasheed to have to try his hand at running the offense from the PG spot at times or even being a primary ball handler in the half court. He will be free to terrorize people on defense and attack on offense.

With Seth being a senior and an underrated offensive asset and Rasheed also pushing for perimeter minutes, 25 minutes from Quinn might be enough for him to make his mark. I do think this pushes Tyler back down to the 15 minute range, but I think we will see those 15 minutes be more productive. He be able to "run around and make things happen," something that he's really, really good at in short bursts, but is more difficult to sustain for the entirety of the game. Again, this is not a knock on Tyler at all. This just reflects my opinion of what I think would be best for both Tyler and Quinn and, by extension, the whole team for next season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Coach K always preaches defense, as everyone knows. However, in the debate over the point guard spot, I actually think offense will need to be considered, as well. As tough, tenacious, and vocal as Tyler is, he is only a mediocre on-ball defender (though a great off the ball defender), and is virtually invisible on the offensive end (no turnovers, but doesn't dime much and doesn't score much). It is my hope that he improves in both areas a lot, this season. On the offensive end, I hope that he has an improved catch-and-shoot three point shot, as that will be available to the team late in the shot clock on EVERY possession, as opposing defenses completely ignore him on the perimeter. I also hope his on the ball defense is a bit better with another year under his belt.

Despite all of that, I still think Quinn Cook will push Tyler into a slightly more limited role than last year. At the very least, this is my hope. Note that I don't hope this because I don't think Tyler brings value. He does. But I do think his value increases if he's able to play in bursts with wild abandon rather than save himself to survive 30 minutes on the court. Quinn was very good at running the offense last year, albeit in limited minutes. If Quinn can provide reasonably effective on ball pressure, his distribution abilities on the offensive end will out-weigh Tyler's defensive contributions, at least when it comes to earning starter's minutes, especially in the absence of Austin, who was capable of breaking down the defense on his own. Ryan Kelly and Seth are excellent spot-up shooters. Mason needs to get the ball in the post. Alex's game, from admittedly limited observation, seems to include lots of cuts and slashes top the basket. We will need Quinn to get these guys the ball in good scoring positions. Finally, if Quinn can control the offense, it takes the pressure off of a freshman Rasheed to have to try his hand at running the offense from the PG spot at times or even being a primary ball handler in the half court. He will be free to terrorize people on defense and attack on offense.

With Seth being a senior and an underrated offensive asset and Rasheed also pushing for perimeter minutes, 25 minutes from Quinn might be enough for him to make his mark. I do think this pushes Tyler back down to the 15 minute range, but I think we will see those 15 minutes be more productive. He be able to "run around and make things happen," something that he's really, really good at in short bursts, but is more difficult to sustain for the entirety of the game. Again, this is not a knock on Tyler at all. This just reflects my opinion of what I think would be best for both Tyler and Quinn and, by extension, the whole team for next season.

Great points all around. Definitely agree with you. But I think your missing something: backcourt defense. Right now, everyone has Quinn, Seth, and Alex as the starting 3. To me, this is the most logical starting 3. Great offensive balance, proper build for each position, and, coupled with MP2 and RK, that offense is downright scary. But Quinn, Seth, and Alex aren't defensive stoppers, and I'd go as far as to say that Quinn is a below average defender, Seth is a mediocre defender, and the jury is out on Alex. I may be a little harsh, but perimeter defense was easily our biggest weakness last year. If Quinn's D isn't up to par, then Tyler will see a lot more minutes. Tyler may not be a true stopper in the sense of Dockery or McClure, but he is still one of our best on-ball defenders. Rasheed may not play a lot of 1 this year, but a backcourt of Sheed, Seth, and Alex is still extremely potent offensively and provides much better defense.

[NSDukeFan]

Great points all around. Definitely agree with you. But I think your missing something: backcourt defense. Right now, everyone has Quinn, Seth, and Alex as the starting 3. To me, this is the most logical starting 3. Great offensive balance, proper build for each position, and, coupled with MP2 and RK, that offense is downright scary. But Quinn, Seth, and Alex aren't defensive stoppers, and I'd go as far as to say that Quinn is a below average defender, Seth is a mediocre defender, and the jury is out on Alex. I may be a little harsh, but perimeter defense was easily our biggest weakness last year. If Quinn's D isn't up to par, then Tyler will see a lot more minutes. Tyler may not be a true stopper in the sense of Dockery or McClure, but he is still one of our best on-ball defenders. Rasheed may not play a lot of 1 this year, but a backcourt of Sheed, Seth, and Alex is still extremely potent offensively and provides much better defense.

Quinn, Seth and Alex have not, as of yet, been defensive stoppers and may never be Tommy Amaker or Shane Battier. We may want to wait to see if Quinn was slowed by injury last year before we label him a below average defender. I also thought that Seth was one of the team's better perimeter defensive players last year (yes, that may not be great praise) and was good defensively on a good defensive unit the year before. Along with his great shooting, I believe Seth is being underrated defensively. He may not be someone to stop a top scorer, but he generally knows where he should be, does not easily get beat off the dribble and has quick hands that sometimes generate steals without him getting out of position.

I agree that Tyler will see more minutes if Quinn cannot pressure the other team's ball-handlers and limit penetration. I also agree that Tyler improved greatly as an on-the-ball defender last year (especially against VTech's very solid Erick Green) and that Rasheed, Seth and Alex is a another unit that looks like it could be very effective this year. There are certainly lots of good potential options and I look forward to seeing who the staff sees as the best options for playing time this year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Quinn, Seth and Alex have not, as of yet, been defensive stoppers and may never be Tommy Amaker or Shane Battier. We may want to wait to see if Quinn was slowed by injury last year before we label him a below average defender. I also thought that Seth was one of the team's better perimeter defensive players last year (yes, that may not be great praise) and was good defensively on a good defensive unit the year before. Along with his great shooting, I believe Seth is being underrated defensively. He may not be someone to stop a top scorer, but he generally knows where he should be, does not easily get beat off the dribble and has quick hands that sometimes generate steals without him getting out of position.

I agree that Tyler will see more minutes if Quinn cannot pressure the other team's ball-handlers and limit penetration. I also agree that Tyler improved greatly as an on-the-ball defender last year (especially against VTech's very solid Erick Green) and that Rasheed, Seth and Alex is a another unit that looks like it could be very effective this year. There are certainly lots of good potential options and I look forward to seeing who the staff sees as the best options for playing time this year.

I should have noted that Quinn was indeed hampered by injuries and that his D suffered greatly because of it. However, Quinn was never known for his defense, and the jury is still out there to see if he can play Coach K D (that doesn't mean a stopper, but certainly understanding positioning and keeping your man in front of you). And I agree that Seth was one of the better defenders last year, but he would still be considered "average" in terms of historic Coach K / Duke defenders. Last year, our defense wasn't up to par. We didn't have a really good, not to mention great, defensive presence. Right now, with the info that we know, that is still our Achilles's heel. Frankly speaking, we don't know how much better Quinn got, how much better Seth got, how much better Tyler got, and what Alex brings defensively to the table. We know that Rasheed is a really good defensive player, but can he get caught up in time? Will he be like Nolan Smith, where we plays 15 min a game from the get-go and provides a strong stark off the bench, or will he be like Elliott Williams, a great defensive player who took a ton of time to get up to speed?

We've been spoiled with such great Coach K defensive teams. We know our offense, and it looks like whatever Amile, Tyler, Josh, or MP3 bring will be pure gravy. But it's the defense that concerns me, and will continue to until our first game of the season.

[Greg_Newton]

Kedsy, after seeing Amile in person (and forget the fact it was summer league. That has nothing to do with my impression) this kid is actually really quick and agile, with great length. I feel certain he can bother wing players... ...As quick as he appears to be with the eye test, even if he gets beat off the dribble, he can recover with the length to still bother the shot.

Re: defense - I think I agree with pretty much everything here. He doesn't have the quickest feet, but he has great balance and positioning and long, loping strides. Wouldn't want him hounding ballhandlers 25 feet from the rim, but he seems to be able to keep big wings from scoring. His length and gumby-arms give him the luxury of being able to sit back a little bit while still challenging jump shots quite well; as with Henson/Davis/etc., it can throw shooters off when a challenge comes out of nowhere to disrupt a seemingly open shot. He played Bullock and others well when matched up with them this summer.


...I was also pleasantly surprised at his handle. I felt his handle was stronger than Hood's actually... ...Now, he was gawd awful at trying to shoot 3's off the bounce, not his forte at all, but agility wise I thought he looked comfortable defending on the wing, and handling the rock on the perimeter. Not a 3 point threat by any stretch of the imagination.

Another thing that impressed me were angles he took getting to the rim, quickness in getting to the rym, craftiness in getting to the rim, and finishing with either hand once he got there. The Jamison comparisons are accurate in all of the above. ANy scoring he does will come in the paint

I'm not quite as sold on his handle. His 1-2 dribbles moves from 20' in look great - purposeful, controlled, aggressive. However, he didn't really look like a perimeter ballhandler to me. It got him where he needed to go in the wide-open Pro-Am, but it's so loose... he doesn't get very low, doesn't snap the ball very fast, and sort of sails around. Once space and defense tighten up in ACC play, I'm not sure that'll fly. I kind of have a hard time seeing him as the third ballhandler. (Re: Hood - I generally thought Amile looked more confident with his handle, but Hood's much tighter and more controlled).

Completely agree with the second paragraph though. He's so, so good at getting the ball up on the rim, even when it doesn't seem like he should be able to; he takes advantage of every bit of his length and balance, and takes the ball right through the defender, often before he can jump. Like Jamison, he's got that natural ability to improvise on a moment-to-moment basis based on the changing situation and position of the defender, and to capitalize on any little angles without hesitation.


I have no idea how quickly he can grasp the Duke Team Defense schemes and as we all know, if he can't grasp that, we will not see very much of all those great qualities I mentioned above. Crossing fingers, toes, and saying Hail Mary's for Amile to master it early.

Probably the biggest thing that surprised me watching him this summer was how smart and fearless a competitor he was. Despite his friendly off-court demeanor, he's got that Philly boldness on it! Seems similar to Lance in that vein, but he also knows how to translate attitude into actual gameplay, if that makes any sense. For example, he's always going to take the ball right through the defender's grill with the sole intention of putting the ball through the rim; I don't think the thought of double-clutching to avoid getting blocked or simply going up to draw contact ever enters his mind.

I'm still worried that he'll need a year to get up-to-speed physically, but he seems to be the kind of guy whose intangibles are off the charts.

[Greg_Newton]

He's so, so good at getting the ball up on the rim, even when it doesn't seem like he should be able to...

Just to gush a little more about this, here's a visual representation of what I mean. See frame 1:

2759

He's driving, but is getting bumped and doesn't have much momentum here. Behind the backboard, outside the line, nowhere to go. Yet, somehow, he balances, initiates contact, stretches, and without taking another step, somehow ends up with...



2760

...a layup right at the rim. Just a little thing, but it's hard for me to look at that first frame and imagine that he's going to turn that into an uncontested layup an inch from the rim. Love that kind of stuff, and he does it constantly.

Once he gets strong enough to do it against college PFs, I think we'll finally have quite a nice post scorer on our hands.