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The Gordog
03-05-2007, 09:53 AM
What does the community think of our chances vs. State?

We beat the snot out of them last time, but they did not have Atsur in that game. Will we mistakenly look past them? Will State smell blood and want revenge for our embarrassing them earlier?

I feel pretty good about our chances, but there seem to be a lot of ways we could still lose.

Duvall
03-05-2007, 09:56 AM
What does the community think of our chances vs. Stare?

We beat the snot out of them last time, but they did not have Astur in that game. Will we mistakenly look past them? Will State smell blood and want revenge for our embarrassing them ealier?

I feel pretty good about our chances, but there seem to be a lot of ways we could still lose.

I doubt Duke is looking past anyone at this point.

State is a better team with Atsur, but is still a team that isn't deep and doesn't force turnovers. They can have a hot shooting night, though.

Channing
03-05-2007, 10:05 AM
I think the game with State will be a great game. I dont think there is any chance at all that K lets the players look past NC state - not this year.

I see this team either (1) letting the last two games get in their heads or (2) coming out looking for blood. While Atsur is a terrific point guard, I think Paulus should be able to guard him pretty well, as he isnt a blow-by type point. Hopefully Josh doesnt let his performances the last two games get in his head, and he comes out as a force - we will need him to play large down low to deal with State's two big guys, who are both excellent scorers.

I see Duke in a close one, maybe 65-60.

feldspar
03-05-2007, 10:10 AM
Tough to tell how the team is going to respond. But, no need to be negative.

I'm calling a defensive battle. Duke pulls it out 59-52.

Cavlaw
03-05-2007, 10:20 AM
I definitely see a defensive battle coming. Lowe has his team playing a great halfcourt game, but I think that will play into Duke's hands defensively. Duke's passing lane defense, if the guards are playing well, should hamper the Wolfpack's ball movement, and McRoberts's presence down low will stop most of what gets through.

On the offensive end, I have some concerns. With Lowe's half-court setup, I think his big men will be disciplined and play down low while McRoberts floats around the perimeter, allowing State to gobble up defensive rebounds and deny us second chance points, and keep the lane clogged to reduce our guards ability to drive effectively. Facing that defense with Henderson out, we be relying on a lot of mid-range jumpers from Nelson, Paulus and McRoberts, without a lot of second chances from offensive rebounds.

If Scheyer plays and is shooting well behind the arc, that might open some things up.

Despite all that, I do believe Duke should come out of this with a win.

rasputin
03-05-2007, 12:16 PM
I agree with this analysis. I also think that the real key for this game--and in fact for every game with this team--is the need to play with intensity for 40 minutes. Even in the games where we've looked great for stretches (for instance, at BC), there have been bad segments.

elvis14
03-05-2007, 12:31 PM
I see Duke coming out against NCSU playing with focus and intensity. I think we will out play NCSU in the first half. With this Duke team that doesn't often create huge leads so I think we'll be up by around 12-15 points at the half. The second half will be played about even until Duke stalls to kills the clock fueling a NCSU rally that will run out of time and we'll win by 7. So basically, I'm saying we play well and we play intense and control the game even though we don't pull away by a large margin on the score board.

Much like NCSU teams in the past this team is dangerous if they come out shooting hot. We need to play the whole game and hit out 2nd half free throws for this game to go well.

DukeUsul
03-05-2007, 12:37 PM
I couldn't be happier with our matchup. We match up well against State's short bench. And they're not monstrously athletic like so much of the league. If we remember to step back into the passing lanes after overplaying on the perimeter - gotta get back to get your hands on the backdoor passes - then I like our chances.

Duke15304
03-05-2007, 01:04 PM
With Sendek out and Lowe in, they are running more of an nba style offense

DukeUsul
03-05-2007, 01:06 PM
True, but it still seems like I've seen a lot of them.

Kewlswim
03-05-2007, 01:12 PM
Hi,

I am glad to read something "positive" about our chances against NCSU. I feel like this season, more than almost any I can remember posters are negative about our chances, our players, our coaches, heck just about everything. I don't mind constructive criticism, but saying things like "Paulus sucks" or "McRoberts is a bust" just don't do it for me. I do sort of like it when a poster says player X is not doing something that they should be, ie they let a player get by on defense when they should have been moving to a different spot. When announcers do that on TV I like it too because I feel like I am learning something. It bothers me when I feel like I know more about what is going on in the game than the announcers do because they are supposed to be the experts, not me.

GO DUKE!

fogey
03-05-2007, 01:19 PM
Players can't play with intensity for 40 minutes; they need help from the bench. The notion that Marty, fresh, cannot contribute at least as well as a tired or "pacing" Jon S or DeMarcus is not valid. I would rather have our starters play 25 minutes, fresh, than pace themselves or play tired for the extra 10 minutes.

Kewlswim
03-05-2007, 01:24 PM
Players can't play with intensity for 40 minutes; they need help from the bench. The notion that Marty, fresh, cannot contribute at least as well as a tired or "pacing" Jon S or DeMarcus is not valid. I would rather have our starters play 25 minutes, fresh, than pace themselves or play tired for the extra 10 minutes.

Hi,

I agree with that. If a player such as Jon S or DeMarcus gets into some sort of foul trouble I think it better that Marty, for example, have experience playing more minutes than have to do it under fire. Then again, in K's system one earns play and that is his style and well, he has been pretty darn successful with it.

GO DUKE!

Drebly1
03-05-2007, 01:42 PM
Will State smell blood and want revenge for our embarrassing them earlier?


Yes...but that blood will be Tyler Hansbrough's.

throatybeard
03-06-2007, 06:42 AM
It's already dry and crusty.

I think we'll see a return to the hallmark of Krzyzewskian hallmarks, defensive intensity. There's gonna be some ugly-low final score in this game.

_Gary
03-06-2007, 08:27 AM
Here's the real killer, not just with our match-up against NCSU, but with the entire ACC Tournament. Even though we are coming in as a 7 seed, only playing .500 ball for the Conference season, I'll guarantee you we will be the biggest villian in the building every day we are there. We'll get booed with so much gusto it will make you think we are walking in as an undefeated, 10 straight championships, team. Problem is, we aren't. And I don't know how this particular squad will respond to that type of pure, unadulterated hatred. Trust me, living here in the Tampa Bay area, I can tell you Duke is not a well-liked team. UNC, on the other hand, will get plenty of support (and not just because of the nose, just because there seems to be a lot of UNC fans in Tampa Bay). God only knows why that is, but every time I go to the mall I see someone wearing a UNC hat or jersey. Other than FSU, I'm betting UNC will see the most support in this tournament. And Duke will easily receive the least - unfortunately.

Gary

feldspar
03-06-2007, 08:36 AM
Here's the real killer, not just with our match-up against NCSU, but with the entire ACC Tournament. Even though we are coming in as a 7 seed, only playing .500 ball for the Conference season, I'll guarantee you we will be the biggest villian in the building every day we are there. We'll get booed with so much gusto it will make you think we are walking in as an undefeated, 10 straight championships, team. Problem is, we aren't. And I don't know how this particular squad will respond to that type of pure, unadulterated hatred. Trust me, living here in the Tampa Bay area, I can tell you Duke is not a well-liked team. UNC, on the other hand, will get plenty of support (and not just because of the nose, just because there seems to be a lot of UNC fans in Tampa Bay). God only knows why that is, but every time I go to the mall I see someone wearing a UNC hat or jersey. Other than FSU, I'm betting UNC will see the most support in this tournament. And Duke will easily receive the least - unfortunately.

Gary

Eh...what's new?

Cavlaw
03-06-2007, 08:37 AM
Here's the real killer, not just with our match-up against NCSU, but with the entire ACC Tournament. Even though we are coming in as a 7 seed, only playing .500 ball for the Conference season, I'll guarantee you we will be the biggest villian in the building every day we are there. We'll get booed with so much gusto it will make you think we are walking in as an undefeated, 10 straight championships, team. Problem is, we aren't. And I don't know how this particular squad will respond to that type of pure, unadulterated hatred. Trust me, living here in the Tampa Bay area, I can tell you Duke is not a well-liked team. UNC, on the other hand, will get plenty of support (and not just because of the nose, just because there seems to be a lot of UNC fans in Tampa Bay). God only knows why that is, but every time I go to the mall I see someone wearing a UNC hat or jersey. Other than FSU, I'm betting UNC will see the most support in this tournament. And Duke will easily receive the least - unfortunately.

Gary
I'm not entirely sure that the local fan feelings matter a whole lot. It depends on whether on not they go to the games. I'd much rather have the tournament in Tampa than, say, Charlotte.

bird
03-06-2007, 08:37 AM
College b-ball is such an emotional sport.

I have been waiting and watching this season for a breakout by Duke.

I think this is it.

We aren't worn down. We aren't hurting (too much, Jumbo may be right about Paulus). The dynamics are ripe for some controlled emotional fury. Too many close losses. A brutal schedule. A national pummelling in the press. Rallying around a suspended player.

I WILL look ahead. I predict we win against NC State, and while it won't be easy, we will control the game. We then take Virginia in a close one. Away from the friendly confines of JPJ Reynolds and Singletary will find themselves having to do it all themselves, and while they are great, it will be a little too much for them facing determined team play from Duke.

smklin
03-06-2007, 08:55 AM
This duke team has been dealing with hatred all year, as all duke teams have for the past decade +. that shouldn't be a problem. what should be a problem is the absence of henderson, which nobody has really talked about yet. henderson's a HUGE asset, whether he comes off the bench or starts. he's one of the only guys we've got who can create his own shot effectively, and he's really had the hot hand lately. also, coach k has started to solidify his rotation, and henderson was clearly in this rotation where pocious was not (as disappointing as that is). this may be an opportunity for pocious to bring an offensive spark and show why he should be getting more time.

also, i think this game is a great time to utilize our new weave offense. some other posters have commented that nc state is not nearly as athletic as some other teams we've faced, which will lend itself to the slow, deliberate style of the weave. hopefully that can get us some open shots for paulus and mcbob.

overall i agree with elvis' analysis that we'll get a moderate lead in the first half and nc state will whittle it down and we'll end up up winning by around 7. typical duke 2007 win.

SavannahDevil
03-06-2007, 09:21 AM
State seems like the best matchup we could have drawn for this round. They're a half-court team and don't have the long, athletic and quick players that give us fits this year. GH wasn't a big factor in the first game so I'm hoping we won't miss him too much. Then we'll have a fresh GH to cover one of the Cavs' guards on Friday. That may actually be the best thing to come of the suspension.
Aside from having to play four games, the brackets couldn't have lined up much better for this team. Duke has a fair chance of making it to the semifinals, but I'm afraid they'll run out of gas there against the Jackets.

throatybeard
03-06-2007, 07:15 PM
I fail to understand why the Duke hate in Tampa is going to be worse than it would be at neutral sites in NC or DC/MD.

VaDukie
03-06-2007, 07:28 PM
I actually think there's a good shot that we'll have a lot of Duke support in Tampa (relatively). I'd say relative to other schools that are more regionally based, Duke has a good number of alums living in Florida. Either way, it's not like our guys aren't used to vitrolic hatred by now so whatever environment we'll face, we'll have to death with.

Duvall
03-06-2007, 07:32 PM
I actually think there's a good shot that we'll have a lot of Duke support in Tampa (relatively). I'd say relative to other schools that are more regionally based, Duke has a good number of alums living in Florida.

I've been hearing about Duke's Mythical Florida Alumni Base for nearly 15 years. Wake me when they actually show up.

throatybeard
03-06-2007, 08:33 PM
Well there's Stray Gator.

_Gary
03-06-2007, 08:56 PM
I fail to understand why the Duke hate in Tampa is going to be worse than it would be at neutral sites in NC or DC/MD.

Oh, I'm not implying the "hatred" will be worse in Tampa than it would be in Charlotte or the DC area. I'm just saying, as a 38 year resident of the Tampa Bay area, that we can expect to be roundly booed in general and will likely be the most disliked team in the tournament at this venue. Admittedly, my opinion is based strictly on personal, anecdotal evidence.

Gary

JBDuke
03-06-2007, 09:53 PM
Well there's Stray Gator.

And as we all know, Stray is worth at least 100 normal fans from any other school! :)

Stray, I hope you'll be at the Tourney to represent those of us that can't make it to Tampa...

Susan
03-06-2007, 10:09 PM
Either way, it's not like our guys aren't used to vitrolic hatred by now so whatever environment we'll face, we'll have to death with.

I HOPE this is a typo! :)

Stray Gator
03-06-2007, 10:20 PM
And as we all know, Stray is worth at least 100 normal fans from any other school! :)

Stray, I hope you'll be at the Tourney to represent those of us that can't make it to Tampa...
********
I'm flattered...and proud to represent the Devilish Denizens of the DBR at the ACC Tourney this weekend. (Of course, I know that others from among our midst will also be attending.) In fact, the entire Stray Gator contingent (3 of our 4 being Duke alumni) will be there to cheer the Blue Devils, while hosting some of our friends with whom we have the pleasure of attending the ACC Tourney every year.

Unfortunately, it appears that a few of our Duke friends who customarily join us for the ACC Tourney have opted not to make the trip to Tampa. But I understand a substantial number of the hundreds of Duke alums in the Tampa Bay area will be enthusiastically "subbing" for them at the Ice Palace. Here's hoping that, beginning Thursday, we see this team elevate its performance to realize the great potential it has shown in spurts throughout the season, with a run that reminds everyone how Coach K earned his reputation by unleashing a lion in March!

Stray ~~~;~~;~ http://mudlizard.com/users/icons/emoticons/chomp.gif

VaDukie
03-06-2007, 11:28 PM
Woops...meant deal with...

jipops
03-07-2007, 08:44 AM
Unfortunately, I actually do see us dropping this game. I really don't see how our kids could possibly stay focused with the overblown media circus over the incident. Plus, keep in mind they are constantly hearing about it from their friends who are being fueled by the aforementioned media circus garbage. State does give us a difficult matchup in a few areas especially with Atsur out there. I truly believe the UNWARRANTED suspension of Henderson is going to hurt us immensely in this game. It is without a doubt going to be a truly ugly game to watch with nobody for Duke having the ability to create a shot.

Plus we've go to be careful not to commit any fouls, another suspension could follow. Make sure you don't jump up in the air to try and block a shot.

Bob Green
03-07-2007, 05:25 PM
I do not believe the overblown media hype surrounding the GH suspension will negatively affect our players. Two reasons:

1. In practice this week, the coaching staff will be working extra hard to ensure the players are focused on the task at hand.

2. Once the ball is tipped, it is all about the game on the court.

I do believe that we will miss having GH on the court, especially considering how well he played toward the end of the regular season. Therefore, we need some offensive productivity from a combination of McClure, Thomas, Zoubek, and Pocius. I would love to see those four combine for 15+ points against State. You add those 15+ to the 55 the big four will score and we score 70+ and win the game.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

Jumbo
03-08-2007, 12:16 AM
It's a great opportunity for Pocius. Let's hope he steps up.

guayaco
03-08-2007, 07:48 AM
Does anyone else think that it wouldn't be that bad at all if our guys bow out early in the ACC tournament to save energy for the really important tournament IF this does not implicate getting a lower seed? I know not everybody feels this way, but winning the ACC tournament doesn't mean anything to me as going deep in the NCAA tournament. In the past however, since we always were in a strong position to win the ACC tournament, my feeling was "ok, why not." This year, however, the odds are stacked up against our team that they can win FOUR games in a row.

Obviously the players want to go as far as they can in the ACC tournament, but as a fan, I have come to care A LOT more about how we do in the big tournament, and I think that our team has a good chance of making the round of 16. But our team is not carolina-deep, and going 4 games deep into a tournament, and not winning it, could jeopardize the bigger picture. So maybe the best case scenario IN THE LONG RUN might actually be to bow out of the ACC tournament in the 2nd or 3rd round, or maybe even now. What does everyone think about that and how much will seeding be affected if we last through the 2nd, 3rd, and last round in the ACC tournament? If seeding is significantly affected by how far we get on this tournament, then I probably need to rethink this saving energy wish.