Rivers' Draft Prospects

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

On Scott Van Pelt today they were saying they expect Rivers to go somewhere between 8 and 10 on Thursday night's draft. I haven't paid a whole lot of attention to mock drafts of projections lately, but I had initially heard he was borderline lottery (with the weird rumor of a "guarantee" somewhere near the end of the lottery).

Anyone got a better line on what's causing the heightened interest?

/here's to he and Miles having good nights on Thursday - may they both do our devils proud.

[superdave]

On Scott Van Pelt today they were saying they expect Rivers to go somewhere between 8 and 10 on Thursday night's draft. I haven't paid a whole lot of attention to mock drafts of projections lately, but I had initially heard he was borderline lottery (with the weird rumor of a "guarantee" somewhere near the end of the lottery).

Anyone got a better line on what's causing the heightened interest?

/here's to he and Miles having good nights on Thursday - may they both do our devils proud.

From what I've seen, Rivers will be a lottery pick and while 8-10 is somewhat likely, 8-15 is a far more accurate way to put his likely range.

Austin seems to be pegged as a combo guard - not big enough to be a true 2 and not pg enough to be a 1. There are several guys with similar skill sets to him -Waiters (more athletic), Lillard (more pg), and Jeremy Lamb (more upside, less effort).

Some teams are high on him while others do not see where he fits, so he sort of has a wide range of places he may go in the draft. I have not read a whole lot about his workouts, anyone got any details on that stuff?

[Billy Dat]

There's been a lot of Austin draft discussion on the board....I think the feeling is that he's going to go higher than expected because someone has promised him that they are going to draft him in a certain spot.

[Greg_Newton]

If you were to guess based on who he's working out for, it'd be mid-high lottery. But who knows.

[roywhite]

Just my own guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Austin as a good scorer in the NBA. Like a 20-pt/game guy a few years down the road.

Don't see many guys who can drive and create their own shot like he can at his age. Has good range and competitive fire.
Needs to continue to work, but has a high motor and should be able to do that.

[sporthenry]

I think Rivers jumped up for several reasons. First, the idea of combo-guard isn't as taboo anymore with players like Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, or even Avery Bradley showing they can still succeed. In addition, Rivers measured fairly well at the combine with his height being on par with the average NBA SG. His wingspan was a bit below the average SG but not too enough to set off any alarms, so Rivers can settle in as a combo guard or fit in fine as a pure SG with his size.

Additionally, while this draft does seem to boast some talent throughout, there are not very many true impact players and Rivers has the potential to be more than just a rotation guy. While the guy has a lot to work on and his basketball knowledge was questioned at times, the potential is there. He remains one of a few guys in this draft who can create a shot for himself and can break down defenders. Of course, he has to work on his left hand, finishing at the rim, free throw shooting, and perhaps 3 point shooting b/c it is unclear if his unorthodox shot will translate, but he could be a perennial all star while many of the guys getting drafted around 10 seem to have less upside like a Tyler Zeller.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think Rivers jumped up for several reasons. First, the idea of combo-guard isn't as taboo anymore with players like Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, or even Avery Bradley showing they can still succeed. In addition, Rivers measured fairly well at the combine with his height being on par with the average NBA SG. His wingspan was a bit below the average SG but not too troubling so Rivers can settle in as a combo guard or fit in fine as a pure SG with his size.

Additionally, while this draft does seem to boast some talent throughout, there are not very many true impact players and Rivers has the potential to be more than just a rotation guy. While the guy has a lot to work on and his basketball knowledge was questioned at times, the potential is there. He remains one of a few guys in this draft who can create a shot for himself and can break down defenders. Of course, he has to work on his left hand, finishing at the rim, free throw shooting, and perhaps 3 point shooting b/c it is unclear if his unorthodox shot will translate, he could be a perennial all star while many of the guys getting drafted around 10 seem to have less upside like a Tyler Zeller.

I completely agree with you, but I think scoring is all he may be able to provide, much in the mold of Jamal Crawford. This isn't a bad thing at all - he may be a great sixth man or a scorer on a team with a bunch of really good defensive players who need scoring, like Lou Williams. However, expecting Austin Rivers to be an All-Star without anything else may be asking a little too much.

[A-Tex Devil]

Just my own guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Austin as a good scorer in the NBA. Like a 20-pt/game guy a few years down the road.

Don't see many guys who can drive and create their own shot like he can at his age. Has good range and competitive fire.
Needs to continue to work, but has a high motor and should be able to do that.

Kevin Martin is the guy I keep picturing when I think about Austin as pro. Martin could score, but struggled on D and was too small to be a real full on 2 guard. But he also doesn't demand the ball in his hand at all times like a Tyreke Evans does. I think Austin can be similar.

If the Rockets let Lowrey go (he and McHale don't get along) he wouldn't be a bad fit if he can buy in.

[Greg_Newton]

Kevin Martin is the guy I keep picturing when I think about Austin as pro. Martin could score, but struggled on D and was too small to be a real full on 2 guard. But he also doesn't demand the ball in his hand at all times like a Tyreke Evans does. I think Austin can be similar.

If the Rockets let Lowrey go (he and McHale don't get along) he wouldn't be a bad fit if he can buy in.

Agreed, except, thing is, even Kevin Martin is 6'7. I sort of see Austin as a mix between Martin and Lou Williams; explosive scorer, but no defined position and kind of unpredictable.

He almost seems like he'd be better on a 2nd team to me, in the Williams/Harden role, if he can improve his vision a bit. That way, he can be aggressive with the ball without having to be as concerned about guarding hotshot NBA wings or taking shots from his team's stars.

[CDu]

Agreed, except, thing is, even Kevin Martin is 6'7. I sort of see Austin as a mix between Martin and Lou Williams; explosive scorer, but no defined position and kind of unpredictable.

He almost seems like he'd be better on a 2nd team to me, in the Williams/Harden role, if he can improve his vision a bit. That way, he can be aggressive with the ball without having to be as concerned about guarding hotshot NBA wings or taking shots from his team's stars.

I'd agree with this. Until he shows me he knows how to play off the ball, I think he's destined for a 2nd unit, lead guard role. And there's definitely a valuable place for that (see Jamal Crawford, Hawks). The problem is when you try to make that a part of the main offense (see Jamal Crawford, Bulls).

I don't have much doubt he'll be able to create his own shot. It's the decision-making and other aspects of his game that I question.

[NSDukeFan]

I'd agree with this. Until he shows me he knows how to play off the ball, I think he's destined for a 2nd unit, lead guard role. And there's definitely a valuable place for that (see Jamal Crawford, Hawks). The problem is when you try to make that a part of the main offense (see Jamal Crawford, Bulls).

I don't have much doubt he'll be able to create his own shot. It's the decision-making and other aspects of his game that I question.

And you are right to question the other aspects of his game as he has room to improve in lots of areas. The good thing is that he is only 20 years old or so and there is a great possibility that he could diversify his skill set in the next few years. I expect that Austin will be a starter for most of his career.

[Duke09]

Jason Terry is who comes to mind when I think of Rivers. Terry may have more PG in his game, but he is a guy that comes off the bench and scores with quickness and threes. I don't see why Rivers can't be that with a few years work.

[pfrduke]

Interesting analysis of three prospects' strengths and weaknesses (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/30610/2012-nba-draft-evaluating-the-point-guards), including Rivers. Note that the particular weakness spotlighted for Rivers is catch-and-shoot scoring, which is consistent with what we saw this season in terms of how infrequently he scored off of assists.

[jimsumner]

Interesting analysis of three prospects' strengths and weaknesses (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/30610/2012-nba-draft-evaluating-the-point-guards), including Rivers. Note that the particular weakness spotlighted for Rivers is catch-and-shoot scoring, which is consistent with what we saw this season in terms of how infrequently he scored off of assists.

If Lillard is a "better version of Isaiah Thomas," then forget Anthony Davis. Or at least MKG at number two.

[Kedsy]

If Lillard is a "better version of Isaiah Thomas," then forget Anthony Davis. Or at least MKG at number two.

I think they must mean the younger Isaiah Thomas, who currently plays for (I think) Sacramento.

[pfrduke]

I think they must mean the younger Isaiah Thomas, who currently plays for (I think) Sacramento.

I think so. The older is also Isiah (without the first "a") if I remember correctly.

[jimsumner]

I think so. The older is also Isiah (without the first "a") if I remember correctly.

Well, that makes more sense. But the current I. Thomas is 5-9 and Lillard is 6-3, so the comparison seems to fall apart around then.

[UrinalCake]

Could anyone else see him developing into a Russell Westbrook type of player? Both attack the basket really aggressively, and both are natural 2-guards making the transition to point. Westbrook has developed a mid-range pull-up jumper that Austin could really benefit from.

[pfrduke]

Could anyone else see him developing into a Russell Westbrook type of player? Both attack the basket really aggressively, and both are natural 2-guards making the transition to point. Westbrook has developed a mid-range pull-up jumper that Austin could really benefit from.

Rivers lacks Westbrook's freakish athleticism, which makes a difference.

[weezie]

I think they must mean the younger Isaiah Thomas, who currently plays for (I think) Sacramento.
All due respect, AR blows the doors off IT the younger once the shoulders fill out.

[DukieTiger]

All due respect, AR blows the doors off IT the younger once the shoulders fill out.

I think they were comparing the Lillard kid to the younger Isaiah.

[mr. synellinden]

SI latest mock draft (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/06/20/nba-mock-draft-2012/index.html#?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t13_a3)has Rivers going 8th.

[subzero02]

The more I watched the nba finals matchup the more I saw Rivers thriving... Watch that first step, who has a better one in the NBA?

[sagegrouse]

SI latest mock draft (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/06/20/nba-mock-draft-2012/index.html#?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t13_a3)has Rivers going 8th.

Austin going north of the border to the Raptors at #8. Miles going "Back Home in Indiana" to the Pacers at #26.

sagegrouse

[roywhite]

The more I watched the nba finals matchup the more I saw Rivers thriving... Watch that first step, who has a better one in the NBA?

One of my memories of this past season was seeing the reaction of LeBron and some other NBA players when they watched Austin in action during Coach K's win #903 at MSG. They chuckled, shook their heads, and appeared decidedly impressed.

[sagegrouse]

One of my memories of this past season was seeing the reaction of LeBron and some other NBA players when they watched Austin in action during Coach K's win #903 at MSG. They chuckled, shook their heads, and appeared decidedly impressed.

I believe Dwyane Wade mouthed, "unguardable." I got no worries about Austin's future. -- sagegrouse

[Billy Dat]

The more I watched the nba finals matchup the more I saw Rivers thriving... Watch that first step, who has a better one in the NBA?

I think Derrick Rose and Russ Westbrook might have some claims to that title but your point is understood. Of course, a great first step is set-up by an ability to consistently knock down an 18 footer, which makes Rose and Westbrook's first-step success all the more remarkable because everyone is playing them to drive - yet they drive anyway.

[A-Tex Devil]

Agreed, except, thing is, even Kevin Martin is 6'7. I sort of see Austin as a mix between Martin and Lou Williams; explosive scorer, but no defined position and kind of unpredictable.

He almost seems like he'd be better on a 2nd team to me, in the Williams/Harden role, if he can improve his vision a bit. That way, he can be aggressive with the ball without having to be as concerned about guarding hotshot NBA wings or taking shots from his team's stars.

Completely forgot Martin was that tall. Man, he doesn't really play like it. I could definitely see Rivers in a Microwave type role, even really early on. There aren't a lot of people that can guard him now in the NBA, so in small doses, before his film gets passed around, I think he can be effective. He'll then need to make adjustments when the league adjusts to him.

[superdave]

One of my memories of this past season was seeing the reaction of LeBron and some other NBA players when they watched Austin in action during Coach K's win #903 at MSG. They chuckled, shook their heads, and appeared decidedly impressed.

Wasnt that the Ohio State game where we got stomped but Austin and Mason played pretty well?

[sporthenry]

I completely agree with you, but I think scoring is all he may be able to provide, much in the mold of Jamal Crawford. This isn't a bad thing at all - he may be a great sixth man or a scorer on a team with a bunch of really good defensive players who need scoring, like Lou Williams. However, expecting Austin Rivers to be an All-Star without anything else may be asking a little too much.

I'm not projecting him to be an All Star, just using that lovely word, potential All Star. And I think that is the reason he is jumping up the boards from a late lottery selection to just about everyone having him in the top 10. When you draft in the late lottery this year you are looking at a lot of very good rotational players but very few guys you could build around. I think Rivers has the potential to be a very good player in the same way the Celtics view Avery Bradley. And as many have mentioned, most likely scenario is that he becomes a scorer off the bench which many of the recent successful teams seemed to have with the likes of Manu, Odom, Terry, Crawford, etc.

I also think you are insinuating that his defense will in some way hold him back but I think he will be average to above average defender assuming he goes to the right situation. I think the NBA will be the first place where he wasn't instantly the go to guy so he will need to learn to play defense every possession but as long as a coach gets into him, I think he will be fine. And I think all of the teams in that 6-14 area have coaches who will serve AR just fine.

[UrinalCake]

Wasnt that the Ohio State game where we got stomped but Austin and Mason played pretty well?

Austin seemed to play better in games where the team was playing poorly. I think this is because he was allowed to step up and be selfish (in a good way) because we needed him to be our offense. This should bode well for his NBA prospects, as the NBA is more of a one-on-one league.