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View Full Version : KenPom predicts how the incoming freshmen will do



niveklaen
06-21-2012, 09:23 AM
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/2012_freshman_projections

Seeing that silent G was actually only the fourth highest ranked recruit to have a bust year makes me feel a bit better, though of course it wont stop the negative recruitig from our opponents...

CDu
06-21-2012, 09:32 AM
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/2012_freshman_projections

Seeing that silent G was actually only the fourth highest ranked recruit to have a bust year makes me feel a bit better, though of course it wont stop the negative recruitig from our opponents...

According to these metrics, Sulaimon is projected to have the 5th highest offensive rating (behind Muhammad, Noel, Smart, and Harris, and tied with Gathers). Jefferson is tied (with a bunch of guys) for 18th. Hope that's accurate!

COYS
06-21-2012, 10:54 AM
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/2012_freshman_projections

Seeing that silent G was actually only the fourth highest ranked recruit to have a bust year makes me feel a bit better, though of course it wont stop the negative recruitig from our opponents...

Transfers are such a big part of college ball now that I really doubt that any recruit who seriously believes in their abilities is going to be too concerned about a transfer at Duke. It's not like we haven't had them before . . . and some of the other transfers were from much higher profile recruits. I mean, what coach would be able to call Duke out for a transfer without having the finger point directly back at them?

CDu
06-21-2012, 11:51 AM
Transfers are such a big part of college ball now that I really doubt that any recruit who seriously believes in their abilities is going to be too concerned about a transfer at Duke. It's not like we haven't had them before . . . and some of the other transfers were from much higher profile recruits. I mean, what coach would be able to call Duke out for a transfer without having the finger point directly back at them?

Well, Calipari, Donovan, and Self can probably get away with such a claim. Gottfried can too (at least among top-tier prospects - the two they lost were not highly-rated guys). I don't think it's quite as common for the very top programs, with Duke and UNC being obvious exceptions. But I could be mistaken there.

DukieTiger
06-21-2012, 01:23 PM
Well, Calipari, Donovan, and Self can probably get away with such a claim. Gottfried can too (at least among top-tier prospects - the two they lost were not highly-rated guys). I don't think it's quite as common for the very top programs, with Duke and UNC being obvious exceptions. But I could be mistaken there.

Well, Florida has lost Eloy Vargas, Allan Chaney, Kenny Kadji and Ray Shipman.

Kentucky has had Stacey Poole and Darnell Dodson- to go along with all their early entries.

Kansas has had Tyrone Appleton, Quintrell Thomas, and Royce Woolridge.

Also, re: State- they also lost Ryan Harrow recently.

Those are all just since 2008. Duke has lost Elliot Williams (due to extenuating circumstances), Olek Czyz and Mike Gbinije in that time. If you go back one more year, you can add Taylor King to that. It doesn't seem like that's too much out of the norm. If anything, I'd think transfers would be more common for top tier programs who are bringing in elite athletes year after year. Anyway, I don't think much negative recruiting is going to happen over those 4 players. Duke is already recruiting a couple of players from Mike G's old AAU program, for instance.

Des Esseintes
06-21-2012, 01:39 PM
Well, Florida has lost Eloy Vargas, Allan Chaney, Kenny Kadji and Ray Shipman.

Kentucky has had Stacey Poole and Darnell Dodson- to go along with all their early entries.

Kansas has had Tyrone Appleton, Quintrell Thomas, and Royce Woolridge.

Also, re: State- they also lost Ryan Harrow recently.

Those are all just since 2008. Duke has lost Elliot Williams (due to extenuating circumstances), Olek Czyz and Mike Gbinije in that time. If you go back one more year, you can add Taylor King to that. It doesn't seem like that's too much out of the norm. If anything, I'd think transfers would be more common for top tier programs who are bringing in elite athletes year after year. Anyway, I don't think much negative recruiting is going to happen over those 4 players. Duke is already recruiting a couple of players from Mike G's old AAU program, for instance.

Yeah, the reason we can't remember other high profile programs' transfers is that those guys don't tend to blow up at their next destination. Recruiting is an inexact science, and every program occasionally lands a guy isn't who it thought he was. In a sense, transfers are a (somewhat) organic version of Jack Welch's 20/70/10 employee "churn." I'm not saying that is how things ought to be, but I would guess transfers out of the best programs are not particularly damaging and might even be net positives when roster space considerations are introduced. Williams is an exception in his subsequent excellence, of course, but that was an exceptional transfer. Czyz, on the other hand, is a great example of a guy who went to a lower-rung situation and excelled there without anyone being under the impression that Duke has really hurt for him in his absence. Seems like it was the best move for all involved--at least from my very distant vantage point.

CDu
06-21-2012, 03:12 PM
Well, Florida has lost Eloy Vargas, Allan Chaney, Kenny Kadji and Ray Shipman.

Kentucky has had Stacey Poole and Darnell Dodson- to go along with all their early entries.

Kansas has had Tyrone Appleton, Quintrell Thomas, and Royce Woolridge.

Also, re: State- they also lost Ryan Harrow recently.

Those are all just since 2008. Duke has lost Elliot Williams (due to extenuating circumstances), Olek Czyz and Mike Gbinije in that time. If you go back one more year, you can add Taylor King to that. It doesn't seem like that's too much out of the norm. If anything, I'd think transfers would be more common for top tier programs who are bringing in elite athletes year after year. Anyway, I don't think much negative recruiting is going to happen over those 4 players. Duke is already recruiting a couple of players from Mike G's old AAU program, for instance.

You missed the part about top-tier players. Of those guys, only Vargas (#26 RSCI) and Kadji (#35) meets that criteria.

UK: Dodson was not a top-100 guy. Poole was #50, so hardly an elite recruit. And the early entries can hardly be used as a negative recruiting tool (which was the discussion). In fact, that's a positive recruiting tool for Calipari.
Kansas: Appleton was unranked, Thomas was #90, Woolridge was unranked.
NC State: Harrow decided to transfer before Gottfried took over, so Gottfried is clean on that count.
UF: Vargas and Kadji count, Shipman (#61) and Chaney #76 don't

If I'm a player in the top 25-30 of RSCI and somebody tells me "you don't want to go to UK - their guys go pro early" or "guys outside the top-75 often transfer from Kansas" I'd probably laugh.

Des Esseintes
06-21-2012, 03:44 PM
You missed the part about top-tier players. Of those guys, only Vargas (#26 RSCI) and Kadji (#35) meets that criteria.

UK: Dodson was not a top-100 guy. Poole was #50, so hardly an elite recruit. And the early entries can hardly be used as a negative recruiting tool (which was the discussion). In fact, that's a positive recruiting tool for Calipari.
Kansas: Appleton was unranked, Thomas was #90, Woolridge was unranked.
NC State: Harrow decided to transfer before Gottfried took over, so Gottfried is clean on that count.
UF: Vargas and Kadji count, Shipman (#61) and Chaney #76 don't

If I'm a player in the top 25-30 of RSCI and somebody tells me "you don't want to go to UK - their guys go pro early" or "guys outside the top-75 often transfer from Kansas" I'd probably laugh.

That's all true, and whatever criticisms might be tossed Kentucky's way, elite transfers out probably is not an allegation likely to stick. However, Kansas's record looks a good bit different if you toss Josh Selby into the mix. Incredibly elite recruit, expected to be a major cog, played poorly, jumped early, went in the second round, impressed no one, currently D-Leagues it. He's not a transfer, but he was a guy with a supreme pedigree who did not enjoy his time in Lawrence and left under circumstances that hurt his career.

You can recruit negatively against anyone.

DukieTiger
06-21-2012, 05:08 PM
You missed the part about top-tier players. Of those guys, only Vargas (#26 RSCI) and Kadji (#35) meets that criteria.

UK: Dodson was not a top-100 guy. Poole was #50, so hardly an elite recruit. And the early entries can hardly be used as a negative recruiting tool (which was the discussion). In fact, that's a positive recruiting tool for Calipari.
Kansas: Appleton was unranked, Thomas was #90, Woolridge was unranked.
NC State: Harrow decided to transfer before Gottfried took over, so Gottfried is clean on that count.
UF: Vargas and Kadji count, Shipman (#61) and Chaney #76 don't

If I'm a player in the top 25-30 of RSCI and somebody tells me "you don't want to go to UK - their guys go pro early" or "guys outside the top-75 often transfer from Kansas" I'd probably laugh.

I thought the top-tier part was just for Gottfried, sorry. Anyway, I just don't buy the "top-tier" argument against Duke- the idea that elite players transfer from Duke more frequently than anywhere else. Recently, only Elliot Williams and Gbinije really fit that measure, and only Gbinije is a transfer that would realistically be used "against Duke". But I'm with the poster above in the belief that negative recruiting will ALWAYS be used, that it can usually be combatted by logic, that high school players will believe what they want to believe, and that transfers are of minimal impact when it comes to negative recruiting. I think playing time for freshmen would be a more frequently used tactic, but don't know how justified any of the previously mentioned coaches would be at leveling that one against Duke either.

Also, Re: Kentucky, I did not mean to insinuate that early entry would be used to recruit negatively. It would just seem that transfers would be less likely when a team's roster is turning over each year, b/c playing time opens up every year. But apart from that, I was just emphasizing how much roster turnover they have from year to year.

Re: Gottfried, he also has a miniscule sample size. I could look at his record of top-tier players he has recruited at Alabama but, well... there really aren't too many. And he didn't exactly have a ton of success at Alabama, and resigned midway through the '09 season. So I have a hard time seeing him negatively recruit against Duke. Duke has gone 1 for 1 against Gottfried so far in recruiting, and that was for a kid that they (Duke) stopped recruiting for a significant period of time.

Double DD
06-22-2012, 03:35 AM
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/2012_freshman_projections

Seeing that silent G was actually only the fourth highest ranked recruit to have a bust year makes me feel a bit better, though of course it wont stop the negative recruitig from our opponents...

Well, Gbinije was healthy and on the team the entire year and couldn't get PT, which wasn't the case for the recruits above him. Both Khem Birch and Jabari Brown transferred early but would have gotten significant playing time over the year otherwise. Wayne Blackshear was injured and missed the first half of the season and never got completely healthy after he came back. In fact, Gbinije was the only top 50 recruit to be dressed for the majority of the season and not meet the minimum playing time for Ken Pomeroy's site. The other players who didn't qualify in the top 50 either were injured, transferred, redshirted, or academically ineligible.

TexHawk
06-22-2012, 10:55 AM
That's all true, and whatever criticisms might be tossed Kentucky's way, elite transfers out probably is not an allegation likely to stick. However, Kansas's record looks a good bit different if you toss Josh Selby into the mix. Incredibly elite recruit, expected to be a major cog, played poorly, jumped early, went in the second round, impressed no one, currently D-Leagues it. He's not a transfer, but he was a guy with a supreme pedigree who did not enjoy his time in Lawrence and left under circumstances that hurt his career.

You can recruit negatively against anyone.

Josh Selby was suspended by the NCAA for his first 10 games, and when he finally saw the court, he averaged over 12 ppg, good for 2nd on an incredibly balanced offense. That's on par with other highly touted freshman players at KU under Bill Self, like Xavier Henry and Brandon Rush.

Halfway through the conference season, he severely sprained his ankle against Texas Tech, an injury originally diagnosed as season ending. He forced himself back into action after missing 6 games, and was clearly not the same player.

He likely wanted to play to increase his draft stock. From the team's standpoint, he missed crucial minutes just as rotations were being set. Hard to argue there, that team didn't lose another game until the Elite 8.

And "clearly didn't enjoy Lawrence?" Is there a quote somewhere? Or can I assume every one-and-done player hated their college towns?

Des Esseintes
06-22-2012, 11:19 AM
Josh Selby was suspended by the NCAA for his first 10 games, and when he finally saw the court, he averaged over 12 ppg, good for 2nd on an incredibly balanced offense. That's on par with other highly touted freshman players at KU under Bill Self, like Xavier Henry and Brandon Rush.

Halfway through the conference season, he severely sprained his ankle against Texas Tech, an injury originally diagnosed as season ending. He forced himself back into action after missing 6 games, and was clearly not the same player.

He likely wanted to play to increase his draft stock. From the team's standpoint, he missed crucial minutes just as rotations were being set. Hard to argue there, that team didn't lose another game until the Elite 8.

And "clearly didn't enjoy Lawrence?" Is there a quote somewhere? Or can I assume every one-and-done player hated their college towns?

Thanks for the clarification. I remembered the suspension but forgot about the injury. I guess I was thinking of his season numbers, in which he scored 8 points a game on almost 8 shots and shot 37% from the field. For a top 5 recruit, those are underwhelming numbers. Regarding the last part, I thought it was pretty common knowledge he was not a great teammate or beloved by the coaching staff his one year at KU. Did I hallucinate that? I'm willing to believe I did.

TexHawk
06-25-2012, 11:29 AM
Thanks for the clarification. I remembered the suspension but forgot about the injury. I guess I was thinking of his season numbers, in which he scored 8 points a game on almost 8 shots and shot 37% from the field. For a top 5 recruit, those are underwhelming numbers. Regarding the last part, I thought it was pretty common knowledge he was not a great teammate or beloved by the coaching staff his one year at KU. Did I hallucinate that? I'm willing to believe I did.
Well, it is probably safe to say that Selby isn't *beloved* in Lawrence, by the fans and coaches. But it's not hate.

For the fans, it's because he left after the stomach-punch loss to VCU, and with the Morris bros going pro, losing Morningstar/Reed... the team looked really thin for '11-12. Most thought we'd be screwed without him, thought he could jump up to a lottery pick with a full offseason and starting, etc. Funny how that turned out, with Elijah Johnson getting his minutes, KU's season turned out ok in the end. Selby does not get discussed much at all anymore. (But it would have been really, really nice to have one of those guys coming off the bench to guard MKG instead of Connor Teahan... ugh.)

For the coaches, all quotes in the media are very supportive of Selby, and happy that he was part of the team. But you can read between the lines. All of it is standard coach-speak, much different than the way Self talks about T-Rob and Taylor right now.

As for Selby, he's been back to Lawrence several times, playing in pickup games + alumni scrimmages.