Freshman Starters at Duke

[sagegrouse]

There was a discussion in another thread about players who started as freshmen under Coach K. Twenty-five players have started the majority of the games their freshman season. That's 25 out of my list of 100 recruited freshmen. Here they are --



Pct. Pos. Player Year
100.0% G Johnny Dawkins 1983
100.0% F Mark Alarie 1983
100.0% G Tommy Amaker 1984
100.0% G Bobby Hurley 1990
100.0% G Jason Williams 2000
100.0% F Kyle Singler 2008
97.1% G Austin Rivers 2012
97.0% G Jon Scheyer 2007
91.7% G Greg Paulus 2006
90.9% G JJ Redick 2002
88.2% C Carlos Boozer 2000
86.5% F Luol Deng 2004
86.1% FC Josh McRoberts 2006
85.7% GF David Henderson 1983
85.7% F Jay Bilas 1983
85.7% F Elton Brand - 2 1998
82.4% G Jeff Capel 1994
79.5% F Grant Hill 1991
77.4% G Trajan Langdon 1995
72.7% G Kyrie Irving - 2 2011
69.7% F Shelden Williams 2002
58.1% C Taymon Domzalski 1996
55.6% F Shane Battier 1998
54.5% F Lance Thomas 2007
52.5% CF Danny Ferry 1986



A few surprises there -- Taymon Domzalski, Jeff Capel and Lance Thomas -- all of whom started in less-than-stellar seasons. I did the stats on Elton and Kyrie based on number of games available (Elton would have made the list anyway).

The list includes 11 guards, 9 forwards, 2 centers and three hybrids (McBob, Ferry, and David Henderson).

Anyway, there were freshman starters in 17 years (out of 32). 1983 is the champ, of course, when JD, Alarie, Bilas and Henderson started almost all of the games. Other years with two freshman starters include Shane and Elton in 1998, JWill and Boozer in 2000, JJ and Shelden in 2003, McBob and Paulus in 2006, and Lance and Jon in 2007.

Does this analysis lead to a cure for cancer or bring about peace? No-o-o-o-o. Not exactly.

sagegrouse

[CameronBornAndBred]

Great job! I'd give you points but I need to spread some love around first. That list really surprises me; I don't know why but I would have thought there would be far fewer names on it. But then with 30 years to populate it, the numbers start to add up. Domzalski is the biggest surprise, and it's fun looking at all those names from '83.

[Bob Green]

Domzalski is the biggest surprise...

For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.

[Li_Duke]

For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.

On the bright side, Domzalski did meet his academic potential. I believe he graduated from Duke Med several years back.

[MChambers]

For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.

Sagegrouse, this is great. Always nice to have the facts.

[dukelifer]

Sagegrouse, this is great. Always nice to have the facts.
Interesting that two ACC players of the year- Chris Carrawell and Nolan Smith did not crack the list.

[Zeb]

Interesting that two ACC players of the year- Chris Carrawell and Nolan Smith did not crack the list.

I'd say it's more interesting that Laettner--NPOY, Dream Team member, and arguably Duke's greatest player ever--didn't make the list.

[MChambers]

I'd say it's more interesting that Laettner--NPOY, Dream Team member, and arguably Duke's greatest player ever--didn't make the list.

He did have two future NBA players ahead of him. More importantly, by season's end he certainly was playing more than Alaa.

[Kedsy]

There was a discussion in another thread about players who started as freshmen under Coach K. Twenty-five players have started the majority of the games their freshman season. That's 25 out of my list of 100 recruited freshmen. Here they are --



Pct. Pos. Player Year recruiting ranking
100.0% G Johnny Dawkins 1983 **
100.0% F Mark Alarie 1983 **?
100.0% G Tommy Amaker 1984 **?
100.0% G Bobby Hurley 1990 **
100.0% G Jason Williams 2000 #3
100.0% F Kyle Singler 2008 #5
97.1% G Austin Rivers 2012 #2
97.0% G Jon Scheyer 2007 #28
91.7% G Greg Paulus 2006 #13
90.9% G JJ Redick 2002 #11
88.2% C Carlos Boozer 2000 #8
86.5% F Luol Deng 2004 #2
86.1% FC Josh McRoberts 2006 #1
85.7% GF David Henderson 1983 ??
85.7% F Jay Bilas 1983 ??
85.7% F Elton Brand - 2 1998 **
82.4% G Jeff Capel 1994 **?
79.5% F Grant Hill 1991 **
77.4% G Trajan Langdon 1995 **
72.7% G Kyrie Irving - 2 2011 #2
69.7% F Shelden Williams 2002 #8
58.1% C Taymon Domzalski 1996 ??
55.6% F Shane Battier 1998 **
54.5% F Lance Thomas 2007 #20
52.5% CF Danny Ferry 1986 **
51.9% GF Ricky Price 1995 **



A few surprises there -- Taymon Domzalski, Jeff Capel and Lance Thomas -- all of whom started in less-than-stellar seasons. I did the stats on Elton and Kyrie based on number of games available (Elton would have made the list anyway).

The list includes 11 guards, 9 forwards, 2 centers and three hybrids (McBob, Ferry, and David Henderson).

Anyway, there were freshman starters in 17 years (out of 32). 1983 is the champ, of course, when JD, Alarie, Bilas and Henderson started almost all of the games. Other years with two freshman starters include Shane and Elton in 1998, JWill and Boozer in 2000, JJ and Shelden in 2003, McBob and Paulus in 2006, and Lance and Jon in 2007.

Does this analysis lead to a cure for cancer or bring about peace? No-o-o-o-o. Not exactly.

sagegrouse

Good stuff, Sage. Although you appear to have left off Ricky Price, who started more than half our games in 1994-95 (I inserted him for you). I have also added a column in your fine table for the player's recruiting ranking, using the RSCI. RSCI only goes back to 1998, however, so for player's before that I have used "**" if the player was probably a top 15 recruit and "??" if I don't know or don't think so.

You will note that except for the years of 2007 and 1983 (two down years for Duke), and with the possible exception of Domzalski (who was probably top 20 but I don't know if he was top 15), every player in your table was a top 15 recruit, and almost all of those were top 10. The list of top 15 recruits who did not start more than half their freshman games is fairly small, and even most of those freshman started a significant number of games:

Chris Duhon, #7, started 25.6% of his freshman games
Gerald Henderson, #10, 31.3%
Elliot Williams, #15, 35.3%
Ryan Kelly, #14, 0%
Chris Burgess, **, 8.3%

I am not suggesting that Coach K looks at the recruiting rankings and decides only to start guys of a certain rank. But these guys are ranked where they are for a reason. Top 10 recruits tend to be both talented and college ready, so they have a much higher chance of starting. Once you get past #15, the talent is at least a little less and the college readiness is generally a lot less (obviously with exceptions, but surprisingly few exceptions when you look at the data).

So, ultimately, unless Coach K is somewhat desperate (e.g., 2007, 1983), if he's starting a freshman the guy is almost certainly top 15 and most likely top 10. This should be somewhat informative when evaluating the chances of starting for freshmen like Quinn Cook (#31 RSCI), who are outside the top 15.

As a further note, right now Rasheed Sulaimon is borderline top 15. I'm interested in seeing where he ends up in the final RSCI.

[Kedsy]

I'd say it's more interesting that Laettner--NPOY, Dream Team member, and arguably Duke's greatest player ever--didn't make the list.

In keeping with my previous post, Christian Laettner, while a pretty highly rated recruit, was not considered top 15 coming out of high school. Also, he still managed to start 44.4% of his freshman games.

[MChambers]

In keeping with my previous post, Christian Laettner, while a pretty highly rated recruit, was not considered top 15 coming out of high school. Also, he still managed to start 44.4% of his freshman games.

I remember some of my co-workers going to the Capital Classic game in DC in 1988, back when the game had most of the top recruits. They told me that Duke had a very strong player in Crawford Palmer. They weren't so sure about the other big guy.

[mr. synellinden]

I remember some of my co-workers going to the Capital Classic game in DC in 1988, back when the game had most of the top recruits. They told me that Duke had a very strong player in Crawford Palmer. They weren't so sure about the other big guy.

We had signed both Palmer and Laettner early that year, and no question Palmer was the recruit people were excited about. Alonzo Mourning was the clear #1 recruit in the country and he and Palmer were both from the D.C. area. There were stories about a game in which Palmer dominated Mourning - that fueled a lot of the buzz.

[yancem]

There was a discussion in another thread about players who started as freshmen under Coach K. Twenty-five players have started the majority of the games their freshman season. That's 25 out of my list of 100 recruited freshmen. Here they are --



Pct. Pos. Player Year
100.0% G Johnny Dawkins 1983
100.0% F Mark Alarie 1983
100.0% G Tommy Amaker 1984
100.0% G Bobby Hurley 1990
100.0% G Jason Williams 2000
100.0% F Kyle Singler 2008
97.1% G Austin Rivers 2012
97.0% G Jon Scheyer 2007
91.7% G Greg Paulus 2006
90.9% G JJ Redick 2002
88.2% C Carlos Boozer 2000
86.5% F Luol Deng 2004
86.1% FC Josh McRoberts 2006
85.7% GF David Henderson 1983
85.7% F Jay Bilas 1983
85.7% F Elton Brand - 2 1998
82.4% G Jeff Capel 1994
79.5% F Grant Hill 1991
77.4% G Trajan Langdon 1995
72.7% G Kyrie Irving - 2 2011
69.7% F Shelden Williams 2002
58.1% C Taymon Domzalski 1996
55.6% F Shane Battier 1998
54.5% F Lance Thomas 2007
52.5% CF Danny Ferry 1986



A few surprises there -- Taymon Domzalski, Jeff Capel and Lance Thomas -- all of whom started in less-than-stellar seasons. I did the stats on Elton and Kyrie based on number of games available (Elton would have made the list anyway).

The list includes 11 guards, 9 forwards, 2 centers and three hybrids (McBob, Ferry, and David Henderson).

Anyway, there were freshman starters in 17 years (out of 32). 1983 is the champ, of course, when JD, Alarie, Bilas and Henderson started almost all of the games. Other years with two freshman starters include Shane and Elton in 1998, JWill and Boozer in 2000, JJ and Shelden in 2003, McBob and Paulus in 2006, and Lance and Jon in 2007.

Does this analysis lead to a cure for cancer or bring about peace? No-o-o-o-o. Not exactly.

sagegrouse

Cool chart but how high are your expectations if a NCAA runner-up is a less than stellar season:)

[jimsumner]

My very strong recollection is that Laettner was more highly regarded than Palmer and it wasn't all that close. Palmer did outplay Mourning in a summer game and that almost certainly distorted expectations and perhaps memories.

But Laettner was a pretty big deal at the time. I suspect he would have ranked around 10th, had the RSCI been around in 1988.

[JasonEvans]

As Bobby Jones, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, James Harden, Jason Terry, and scores of other players will tell you, it ain't about who starts, it is about who finishes.

But, seeing as it is excessively difficult to track who finished games and if those games were close enough so that finishing mattered, I think it would be more interesting to look at freshmen who played more than 20 minutes per game under K. I bet that list would look interesting and different.

-Jason "will be interesting to see if Suliamon, ,Murphy or Amile can add another name to the list" Evans

[CameronBlue]

Taymon Domzalski, Jeff Capel and Lance Thomas -- all of whom started in less-than-stellar seasons. sagegrouse

Quibbles n bits: Not sure I would classify 1994 as a less than stellar season. Capel was a key contributor to a team that...well it pains me to recall the NC game, but less than stellar hardly fits.

[timmy c]

As Bobby Jones, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, James Harden, Jason Terry, and scores of other players will tell you, it ain't about who starts, it is about who finishes.

But, seeing as it is excessively difficult to track who finished games and if those games were close enough so that finishing mattered, I think it would be more interesting to look at freshmen who played more than 20 minutes per game under K. I bet that list would look interesting and different.

-Jason "will be interesting to see if Suliamon, ,Murphy or Amile can add another name to the list" Evans

Jason,

I don't know that you could consider Murphy on this list considering he took a non-injury related redshirt. What do others think?

[Bob Green]

Jason,

I don't know that you could consider Murphy on this list considering he took a non-injury related redshirt. What do others think?

I believe we can consider Murphy for the list. He will be a freshman during the 2012-13 season. Last year, he should have been a senior in high school, but he elected to come to Duke and red shirt for developmental reasons. However I slice it, dice it or analyze it, I end up concluding Murphy is a freshman. He has played in zero college games.

[mr. synellinden]

My very strong recollection is that Laettner was more highly regarded than Palmer and it wasn't all that close. Palmer did outplay Mourning in a summer game and that almost certainly distorted expectations and perhaps memories.

But Laettner was a pretty big deal at the time. I suspect he would have ranked around 10th, had the RSCI been around in 1988.

Not sure I completely agree with this. No question Laettner was a top recruit, but so was Palmer. They both were McDAA, and I can tell you from someone who was in school at the time, there was more excitement (albeit uninformed) among the students who followed recruiting about Palmer. The perception at the time was that if one of the two was going to become a star, it was more likely going to be Palmer. We weren't even sure how to pronounce Laettner's name for most of the year.

You could say the same thing about Burgess and Brand/Battier actually.

[jimsumner]

Not sure I completely agree with this. No question Laettner was a top recruit, but so was Palmer. They both were McDAA, and I can tell you from someone who was in school at the time, there was more excitement (albeit uninformed) among the students who followed recruiting about Palmer. The perception at the time was that if one of the two was going to become a star, it was more likely going to be Palmer. We weren't even sure how to pronounce Laettner's name for most of the year.

You could say the same thing about Burgess and Brand/Battier actually.

Burgess was in free fall by the time he enrolled at Duke. His prep reputation suffered a huge hit as a senior when junior Kris Lang chewed him up and spit him out in a holiday tournament.

Discussions like this remind me of how much I rely on RSCI.

[Olympic Fan]

I assume you were inspired by a post on another thread that suggested that Coach K isn't comfortable starting freshman. Your list is a superb answer.

Allow me to address a few points raised in this thread:

-- I also remember that Christian Laettner was more highly recruited that Crawford Palmer -- but not by a lot. And, Jim, I think he would have been ranked closer to No. 15-20 than No. 10 if there was an RSCI in 1988. I checked and both were McDonald's All-Americans. Christian was a second-team Parade (Parade picked four 10-man teams) which put him between 11-20 (although junior Kenny Anderson took one of the first-team spots). Palmer was a third-team Parade A-A, which would put him between 21-30. Of course, that's just one source, but overall, I think Christian was a more highly touted prospect, although Palmer gained a lot of respect for his head-to-head success against Alonzo Mourning, who was thought to be in a class of his own (until Christian shattered his aura in the 1989 East Regional title game).

-- Taymon Domzalski was a McDonald's A-A and a second-team Parade A-A. He did have a promising freshman season, but the rest of his career was ruined by chronic bad knees. True that his freshman season was less-than-steller, but keep in mind that he replaced an NBA lottery pick (Cherokee Parks) and a second-round NBA pick (Eric Meeks) in the post and was the primary big man on a team that improved from 13-18 to 18-13. And, I agree with the guys who argue that 1994 was NOT a less-than-stellar season.

-- It's significant to me that a couple of guys who didn't make the list emerged as starters late in their freshman seasons. Laettner became a full-time starter in mid-January. Duhon first started when Boozer got hurt just before the regular season finale -- he still played enough to be ACC rookie of the year. Carrawell became a starter in late January. Elliott Williams became a starter in early February. In contrast, Danny Ferry started the first half of the season when Jay Bilas was hurt. When Bilas returned at just after the halfway point, Ferry became the sixth man.

-- Interesting to me that K has had three ACC rookie of the year picks since 2001 (Duhon, Singler and Rivers) after having none before 2001. I mean as great as Dawkins, Grant Hill, Hurley, Jason Williams and Ferry were, there always seemed to be somebody a little better (at least the voters thought so).

[lotusland]

For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.

Domzalski might have faired better if Brand, Battier and Burgess hadn't arrived his Junior year. I do remember having high expectations for him after his Freshman year but he was pretty clearly out of his league when Brand and Battier arrived. I'm not sure if Burgess was better but he was more athletic and had a bigtime reputation.

I remember Pete Gillen quipped that if he had a player like Domzalski, who was languishing on the end of Duke's bench, they would erect a statue or monument of him.

[jimsumner]

Domzalski might have faired better if Brand, Battier and Burgess hadn't arrived his Junior year. I do remember having high expectations for him after his Freshman year but he was pretty clearly out of his league when Brand and Battier arrived. I'm not sure if Burgess was better but he was more athletic and had a bigtime reputation.

I remember Pete Gillen quipped that if he had a player like Domzalski, who was languishing on the end of Duke's bench, they would erect a statue or monument of him.

Domzalski averaged around 6.5/5.0 as a frosh. Promising but hardly dominant. Junior Greg Newton had much better stats that year, 12.2/8.2.After Tony Moore flunked out early, Duke had limited options inside.

Domzalski's biggest problem was he just couldn't stay out of foul trouble.

Domzalski missed most of his sophomore season with a knee injury. Probably should have red-shirted. But I'm not sure he wanted do.

Brand, Battier and Burgess came in when he was a junior. TD got some PT after Brand's broken foot but had a poor game when #1 Duke was hammered at Chapel Hill. 97-73, IIRC. K went small after that, starting Battier and McLeod until Brand came back.

And he was a back-up in '99.

[sagegrouse]

Quibbles n bits: Not sure I would classify 1994 as a less than stellar season. Capel was a key contributor to a team that...well it pains me to recall the NC game, but less than stellar hardly fits.

You are right. I was thinking without checking that Capel was a freshman in 1995. -- sage

[Kedsy]

My very strong recollection is that Laettner was more highly regarded than Palmer and it wasn't all that close. Palmer did outplay Mourning in a summer game and that almost certainly distorted expectations and perhaps memories.

But Laettner was a pretty big deal at the time. I suspect he would have ranked around 10th, had the RSCI been around in 1988.

The only source I could find was Street & Smith's, who did not list Christian on any of their four "high school all america" teams (comprising of a total of 20 players). Both Christian and Crawford were listed as "high honorable mention," along with more than 100 others.

[sagegrouse]

Good stuff, Sage. Although you appear to have left off Ricky Price, who started more than half our games in 1994-95 (I inserted him for you). I have also added a column in your fine table for the player's recruiting ranking, using the RSCI. RSCI only goes back to 1998, however, so for player's before that I have used "**" if the player was probably a top 15 recruit and "??" if I don't know or don't think so.



Ricky Price played in 27 games and started 14, but he didn't make my list because Duke played 31 games in 1995 (hard to see how -- probably the early-season tourney). Also, Wojo started 15 games that season (and played in 28).

sage

[Kedsy]

Ricky Price played in 27 games and started 14, but he didn't make my list because Duke played 31 games in 1995 (hard to see how -- probably the early-season tourney). Also, Wojo started 15 games that season (and played in 28).

sage

Sorry, my bad. You are absolutely right there and I missed it.

Price was a highly regarded recruit, so he fits into my theory. Wojo was not as highly regarded. Either way, I guess both of them would fit into the "non-top 10 freshman sometimes start for Duke in down years like 2007 and 1983 (and 1995)" barrel.

[mr. synellinden]

Burgess was in free fall by the time he enrolled at Duke. His prep reputation suffered a huge hit as a senior when junior Kris Lang chewed him up and spit him out in a holiday tournament.

Discussions like this remind me of how much I rely on RSCI.


Yeah, but with respect to Burgess, I was just talking about when the players were recruited/committed to Duke. I was making an analogy in terms of perceptions of the better recruit in a class at the time of the commitment. Burgess is to Brand/Battier as Palmer is to Laettner. Although I do specifically remember someone relatively knowledgable and with connections to Duke telling me that Brand would be the best player in the class.

Putting Burgess (who was the consensus #1 player in the class when he committed) aside, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Laettner was not considered a top 10 recruit when he committed to Duke. My guess is that he was ranked somewhere between 25-35 and he was not considered as big a "get" as Palmer at the time. Palmer wasn't a top 10 guy either, but he was rated a little higher than Laettner. That may have changed by the end of their senior seasons, but I have pretty specific recollections of their relative standing in the fall when they committed.

The point of this in the context of the thread was the correlation between a high recruiting ranking and starting a high percentage of games as a freshman. I'd argue that Laettner's start percentage was quite in line with where he was ranked.

[Olympic Fan]

Sorry, my bad. You are absolutely right there and I missed it.

Price was a highly regarded recruit, so he fits into my theory. Wojo was not as highly regarded. Either way, I guess both of them would fit into the "non-top 10 freshman sometimes start for Duke in down years like 2007 and 1983 (and 1995)" barrel.

Actually, both Price and Wojo were McDonald's A-As (so was Trajan that year. Price was 4th team Parade A-A (which means 31-40). Wojo didn't make any of the four Parade teams.

I repeat -- Domzalski was never the same after hurting his knees (both knees) after his freshman season. Injury -- more than the arrival of Brand and Burgess -- let to his demise.

And, Jim, I think it might be overstating things to say that Burgess was in free fall. True, his reputation might have slipped a bit (going into the summer of his senior prep year he was the clearcut No. 1 guy in the class), but he was still a concensus top 5 recruit: a first-team Parade A-A, a McDonld's A-A, USA Today first team prep A-A (a five-man team) and the Sporting News Prep Player of the Year.....

[gep]

-- Interesting to me that K has had three ACC rookie of the year picks since 2001 (Duhon, Singler and Rivers) after having none before 2001. I mean as great as Dawkins, Grant Hill, Hurley, Jason Williams and Ferry were, there always seemed to be somebody a little better (at least the voters thought so).

So... I got interested to see who were the ACC rookie of the year for those years before 2001... and found this.

http://www.dukeupdate.com/Records/acc_rookie_of_the_year.htm

For example... Mark Price in 1983 (Johnny Dawkins), Rodney Rogers in 1991 (Grant Hill), Joseph Forte in 2000 (Jason Williams)...

Also, look at all the GTech players, especially in the 80's.

[sagegrouse]

Here is the same database, looking only at players that were All-American (as listed in the Duke Media Guide) or 1st team All-ACC. The list overlaps 95% -- Amaker, listed as an A-A, was never 1st team All-ACC. Chris Carrawell is the only All-ACC player not on an A-A team.




Pct. Pos. Player Year
100.0% G Johnny Dawkins 1983
100.0% F Mark Alarie 1983
100.0% G Tommy Amaker 1984
100.0% G Bobby Hurley 1990
100.0% G Jason Williams 2000
100.0% F Kyle Singler 2008
97.1% G Austin Rivers 2012
97.0% G Jon Scheyer 2007
90.9% G JJ Redick 2002
88.2% C Carlos Boozer 2000
85.7% F Elton Brand - 2 1998
79.5% F Grant Hill 1991
77.4% G Trajan Langdon 1995
69.7% F Shelden Williams 2002
55.6% F Shane Battier 1998
52.5% CF Danny Ferry 1986
44.4% FC Christian Laettner 1989
36.4% F Chris Carrawell 1997
30.3% G Gerald Henderson 2007
25.6% G Chris Duhon 2001
6.1% G DeMarcus Nelson 2005
5.9% F Mike Dunleavy 2000
2.9% G Nolan Smith 2008


Markie, Nolan, and Mike D. take the honors. And Nolan was consensus 1st team A-A; Mike was consensus 2nd team. I recall Dunleavy being a very valuable player as a freshman, although evidently not a starter. Duhon, although starting only 25%, as someone noted, he went into the starting lineup at the end of the season and started all the way through to the National Championship.

And here is a complementary list of players who started a sizable percentage but did not scale the same heights. And I have included their highest honors.



91.7% G Greg Paulus 2006 3rd
86.5% F Luol Deng 2004 3rd
86.1% FC Josh McRoberts 2006 2nd
85.7% GF David Henderson 1983
85.7% F Jay Bilas 1983
82.4% G Jeff Capel 1994 3rd
72.7% G Kyrie Irving 2011
58.1% C T. Domzalski 1996
54.5% F Lance Thomas 2007
48.4% G Steve Wojo 1995 2nd
45.2% G Ricky Price 1995 3rd
37.0% F Danny Meagher 1982
32.4% G Elliott Williams 2009



It should be noted that Luol and Kyrie would have received honors had they stayed more than one year, or -- heck -- if Kyrie had played a full season. The same might be said for McBob and EWill, if they had stayed longer.

sagegrouse

[jimsumner]

The only source I could find was Street & Smith's, who did not list Christian on any of their four "high school all america" teams (comprising of a total of 20 players). Both Christian and Crawford were listed as "high honorable mention," along with more than 100 others.

Street and Smith's was pre-season. I believe Weldon Williams was the highest ranked S&S recruit in Duke's class of 1982.I do remember that they had him on their
30-man team. We all thought Duke was getting an instant impact player.


In other words, don't give much weight to S&S.

[Olympic Fan]

Here is the same database, looking only at players that were All-American (as listed in the Duke Media Guide) or 1st team All-ACC. The list overlaps 95% -- Amaker, listed as an A-A, was never 1st team All-ACC. Chris Carrawell is the only All-ACC player not on an A-A team.

You are right about Amaker, but I think you missed it on Carrawell, who was both ACC player of the year and consensus first-team All-America in 2000 -- and he is listed as an A-A on page 75 of the 2011-12 Duke media guide.

[sagegrouse]

You are right about Amaker, but I think you missed it on Carrawell, who was both ACC player of the year and consensus first-team All-America in 2000 -- and he is listed as an A-A on page 75 of the 2011-12 Duke media guide.

You are right; I absolutely missed it. That means that every Duke player who has been selected first-team All-ACC has been at one time selected to at least one All-American team (first or second team). And except for Tommy Amaker, the converse is also true.

sagegrouse
'Of course, the biggest anomaly was Steve Vacendak winning MVP in the ACC but only making 2nd team All-ACC, when Verga and Marin were first team. The reporters seemed to be impressed with his "most valuable" point guard play, but gave the first-team votes to the scorers'

[UrinalCake]

Interesting to me that K has had three ACC rookie of the year picks since 2001 (Duhon, Singler and Rivers) after having none before 2001. I mean as great as Dawkins, Grant Hill, Hurley, Jason Williams and Ferry were, there always seemed to be somebody a little better (at least the voters thought so).

When thinking about this, along with the topic of this thread in general, you have to consider how the landscape of college basketball has changed since the mid-90's. As players started leaving early, teams had to rely on freshmen more and more. Then when high schoolers started going straight to the NBA, the perception that freshmen weren't physically or mentally ready to contribute went away.

The first players to leave Duke early were in 1999; before then it was almost guaranteed that when a freshman came in there would be a more experienced player at his position already on the roster. I think there was also a shift in recruiting around the same time where Coach K accepted that he'd have to go after one-and-done type players. So it makes sense that the ROY's started coming soon after.

[Olympic Fan]

When thinking about this, along with the topic of this thread in general, you have to consider how the landscape of college basketball has changed since the mid-90's. As players started leaving early, teams had to rely on freshmen more and more. Then when high schoolers started going straight to the NBA, the perception that freshmen weren't physically or mentally ready to contribute went away.

The first players to leave Duke early were in 1999; before then it was almost guaranteed that when a freshman came in there would be a more experienced player at his position already on the roster. I think there was also a shift in recruiting around the same time where Coach K accepted that he'd have to go after one-and-done type players. So it makes sense that the ROY's started coming soon after.

I don't think that explanation works. Duke had plenty of great players start and star as freshmen before 1999. Go back to Johnny Dawkins in 1983 (as well as Alarie and Henderson that year), Amaker in 1984, Ferry in 1986, Hurley in 1990, Grant Hill in 1991 ... all were as good or better as freshmen than Duhon (who only started 10 games), Singler and Rivers. It just happened that all came out in years when the voters thought other players were better. In a couple of cases they were -- I think Dawkins was actually better than Price in '83, but Kenny Anderson was better than Hurley in '90. Throw in Elton Brand, who (like Kyrie Irving) would have been a lock for ROY if he had stayed healthy as a freshman.

[jimsumner]

I don't think that explanation works. Duke had plenty of great players start and star as freshmen before 1999. Go back to Johnny Dawkins in 1983 (as well as Alarie and Henderson that year), Amaker in 1984, Ferry in 1986, Hurley in 1990, Grant Hill in 1991 ... all were as good or better as freshmen than Duhon (who only started 10 games), Singler and Rivers. It just happened that all came out in years when the voters thought other players were better. In a couple of cases they were -- I think Dawkins was actually better than Price in '83, but Kenny Anderson was better than Hurley in '90. Throw in Elton Brand, who (like Kyrie Irving) would have been a lock for ROY if he had stayed healthy as a freshman.

In fairness, Mark Price did lead the ACC in scoring in 1983-aided in large part by the short three-point line.

Hard to ignore that.

And neither Tech nor Duke was especially good in 1983.

My biggest complaint is 2000, when Joseph Forte edged Jason Williams. Forte had a higher scoring average. But Williams came in and started at point for a team that returned three players from the previous season and QB'd that team to a 15-1 ACC mark, was Duke's third-leading scorr and played without a real backup all season.

That trumps anything Forte did. IMO.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So... I got interested to see who were the ACC rookie of the year for those years before 2001... and found this.

http://www.dukeupdate.com/Records/acc_rookie_of_the_year.htm

For example... Mark Price in 1983 (Johnny Dawkins), Rodney Rogers in 1991 (Grant Hill), Joseph Forte in 2000 (Jason Williams)...

Also, look at all the GTech players, especially in the 80's.

Seriously... Am I more floored by how good a recruiter Cremmins was? Or more shocked that they didn't win more?

[tommy]

As Bobby Jones, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, James Harden, Jason Terry, and scores of other players will tell you, it ain't about who starts, it is about who finishes.

But, seeing as it is excessively difficult to track who finished games and if those games were close enough so that finishing mattered, I think it would be more interesting to look at freshmen who played more than 20 minutes per game under K. I bet that list would look interesting and different.

-Jason "will be interesting to see if Suliamon, ,Murphy or Amile can add another name to the list" Evans




Good thought on the minutes per game. By my count, there have been 26 frosh in the K era who have averaged over 20 mpg. Here they are:



Player
Year
Minutes Per Game







Tommy Amaker
1983-84
36.3


Johnny Dawkins
1982-83
35.8


Jason Williams
1999-2000
34.0


Jon Scheyer
2006-07
33.7


Bobby Hurley
1989-90
33.4


Austin Rivers
2011-12
33.3


Greg Paulus
2005-06
32.3


Luol Deng
2003-04
31.1


JJ Redick
2002-03
30.7


Kyle Singler
2007-08
28.6


Mark Alarie
1982-83
28.0


Chris Duhon
2000-01
27.8


Kyrie Irving
2010-11
27.5


Jeff Capel
1993-94
26.4


Trajan Langdon
1994-95
25.7


David Henderson
1982-83
24.9


Shane Battier
1997-98
24.64


Grant Hill
1990-91
24.63


Josh McRoberts
2005-06
24.5


Mike Dunleavy
1999-2000
24.1


Ricky Price
1994-95
24.0


Carlos Boozer
1999-2000
23.7


Elton Brand
1997-98
23.5


Jay Bilas
1982-83
23.0


Danny Ferry
1985-86
22.8


Taymon Domzalski
1995-96
20.5




























































So comparing this list to Sage's list of the frosh who started more than half the team's games, it's almost the same. Only Shelden Williams and Lance Thomas started more than half the games but still didn't get to the 20 minutes per game mark. And only Chris Duhon, Mike Dunleavy, and Ricky Price got more than 20 mpg as freshmen but did not start more than half the team's games.

My takeaway from this is that, with precious few exceptions, under K, if a player is good enough as a freshman to play more than 20 mpg, he's good enough to start. And vice-versa.

One other thing I notice (but don't tell the haters): of the guys who have gotten more than 20 mpg as freshmen, only 4 during K's tenure have been back to the basket players: Boozer, Brand, Bilas, and Domzalski.

[jimsumner]

Seriously... Am I more floored by how good a recruiter Cremmins was? Or more shocked that they didn't win more?


If you've ever talked to Bobby Cremins, you wouldn't be surprised. Man can charm the bark off a tree.

Cremins learned his hoops from Frank McGuire and Frank wasn't much for that whole using-the-bench thing. So, stars like Tom Hammonds, Dennis Scott or Kenny Anderson knew they were going to get their minutes and their touches.

So, recruiting stars was in his skill set. Recruiting those glue guys who weren't sure they were going to be able to see the floor was more problematical.

[bdeviled11]

Gene Wojciechowski wrote about how Laettner got to Duke. Kind of fascinating.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/7433262/how-christian-laettner-got-duke