Sporting News 2012-13 preseason rankings

[gwlaw99]

Duke is 8. Carolina 11. State 7.
http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2012-05-22/college-basketball-rankings-2012-13-top-25-mike-decourcy

[UrinalCake]

That sounds about right to me for the ACC teams. We'd love to dump on UNC but they still have some good talent, albeit without much experience. UCLA seems a little overrated but at this point everyone seems to have flaws so a lot is left to be determined.

[Kedsy]

Duke is 8. Carolina 11. State 7.
http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2012-05-22/college-basketball-rankings-2012-13-top-25-mike-decourcy

It's going to be an interesting season. Practically every team on the list seemed overranked to me. Looking at this top 25 makes me think Duke has a really good shot at a #1 seed next season.

[BlueDevil16]

Duke looks to have a hard schedule though with Uk, Louisville (possibly), tOSU, NCSTx2, UNCx2

[gumbomoop]

This preview seems a little more realistic than earlier ones re teams such as KU and MichSt, placing them at 15 and 22, rather than top 5-10. Others - I'm recalling TexHawk's in-depth analysis of KU's strengths - will disagree, and insist the Jayhawks are too low at 15. Lunardi has Jayhawks as a 1-seed [!!] and MichSt as a 2, btw.

Here's a reminder-link to the earlier thread, within which you can find links to other early-preseason top 25s: http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?28288-Premature-2012-2013-Top-25-%28subject-to-change%29

In DeCoucy/SN's preview, UCLA at 2? I guess Larry Drew must be burning it up out there. IMO, UK at 5 makes more sense than 1-3, given their lack of depth. And I do like seeing San Diego St, UNLV, Murray St, Creighton, and VCU in there. Experience counts.

Still think Miami should get some mention, but maybe I [and several other EK posters] are overrating the 'Canes.

[ThePublisher]

UCLA at 2? Talk about a hype machine. So if Bazz had come to Duke we would be #1 huh, right....
NC State above Duke? Jibber Jabber!
UNC-ch at 11? Blasphemy!

I agree we are looking like one of the top teams next year, possibly a final four contender if Cook can do some good southern home cooking :)

[CDu]

This preview seems a little more realistic than earlier ones re teams such as KU and MichSt, placing them at 15 and 22, rather than top 5-10. Others - I'm recalling TexHawk's in-depth analysis of KU's strengths - will disagree, and insist the Jayhawks are too low at 15. Lunardi has Jayhawks as a 1-seed [!!] and MichSt as a 2, btw.

Here's a reminder-link to the earlier thread, within which you can find links to other early-preseason top 25s: http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?28288-Premature-2012-2013-Top-25-%28subject-to-change%29

In DeCoucy/SN's preview, UCLA at 2? I guess Larry Drew must be burning it up out there. IMO, UK at 5 makes more sense than 1-3, given their lack of depth. And I do like seeing San Diego St, UNLV, Murray St, Creighton, and VCU in there. Experience counts.

Still think Miami should get some mention, but maybe I [and several other EK posters] are overrating the 'Canes.

I was just going to say the same thing about Kansas and MSU. DeCourcy has at least dinged those programs for their losses. I agree that he's probably overstating UCLA's ranking, but the additions of Anderson, Muhammad, and Parker make a big difference (enough to probably offset Drew's weaknesses). I think they are a top 10 team, but probably not #2.

But over all, I think this is a much better list.

[gumbomoop]

Practically every team on the list seemed overranked to me.

I take this to be a flippantly serious comment [as opposed to seriously flippant, but possibly that, too], and also an accurate assessment.

IIRC, in the run-up to 2011-'12, there was a rough consensus that there were 3 likely-"great" teams - UK, UNC, tOSU - plus late-added-"great" UConn [Drummond's decision]. Going into 2012-'13, no likely greats. Any of 8-10 teams could impress and become a top-top team, as did 'Cuse last season, but no team is, on paper this early, as impressive looking as UK, UNC, tOSU last summer.

On UCLA, we have an early consensus on EK:


UCLA seems a little overrated....


UCLA at 2? Talk about a hype machine.


I agree that he's probably overstating UCLA's ranking, but the additions of Anderson, Muhammad, and Parker make a big difference (enough to probably offset Drew's weaknesses). I think they are a top 10 team, but probably not #2.


.... UCLA at 2? I guess Larry Drew must be burning it up out there.

Moreover, there's a longer-standing consensus here, and probably on IC, that Drew is poisonous and not a very good PG because hilariously inconsistent.

But if I understand UCLA's returning roster and their fine recruiting class, Drew is the only legit PG on that team. That fact might in itself be thought to justify our skepticism re UCLA's super-high ranking. OTOH, have we - I'm asking - overstated Drew's flaws, even incompetence, as a high-high-major PG? Is it possible - I'm asking [and here I'd welcome especially any comments from our several trustworthy UNC posters] - that the bad chem in CH in 2010-'11 wasn't all Drew's fault, that it was more complicated, that Barnes and Bullock, in particular, made things worse by making it so clear how much they wanted their guy, Marshall, to take over?

Just how bad or, potentially, good is Drew, actually? Will he be relegated to 10-15 mpg, as Anderson takes over? Will Shabazz, like HB, make clear his preference for his guy, Anderson? Will Drew become poisonous again? Or will his speed, compared to Anderson's super slo-mo, win him some plaudits and plenty of PT?

[TexHawk]

Eh, I'm sure you all are sick of me ranting about KU's prospects, so I won't go into it again. We all know these things are worthless right now anyway, and they are all over the map. Lunardi has KU as #1 seed, Katz has them at 4 (I think), Winn has them at 8, and now DeCourcey has them at 15. This one strikes me for his random thought processes. I mean, he dings KU for losing two AAs, but gives Ohio State and Kentucky the benefit of the doubt when they lose the same or more. Whatever, it's just noise to get clicks and attention. My passion for this argument has petered out, but I'm sure it'll pick back up in October.

I will say that in every season since 2007, Bill Self has lost at least one AA or lottery pick, only to win the conference each year and land in the tournament with seeds of 1-3-1-1-2, with two Final Fours and one title. I will take our chances.

[COYS]

I take this to be a flippantly serious comment [as opposed to seriously flippant, but possibly that, too], and also an accurate assessment.

IIRC, in the run-up to 2011-'12, there was a rough consensus that there were 3 likely-"great" teams - UK, UNC, tOSU - plus late-added-"great" UConn [Drummond's decision]. Going into 2012-'13, no likely greats. Any of 8-10 teams could impress and become a top-top team, as did 'Cuse last season, but no team is, on paper this early, as impressive looking as UK, UNC, tOSU last summer.

On UCLA, we have an early consensus on EK:









Moreover, there's a longer-standing consensus here, and probably on IC, that Drew is poisonous and not a very good PG because hilariously inconsistent.

But if I understand UCLA's returning roster and their fine recruiting class, Drew is the only legit PG on that team. That fact might in itself be thought to justify our skepticism re UCLA's super-high ranking. OTOH, have we - I'm asking - overstated Drew's flaws, even incompetence, as a high-high-major PG? Is it possible - I'm asking [and here I'd welcome especially any comments from our several trustworthy UNC posters] - that the bad chem in CH in 2010-'11 wasn't all Drew's fault, that it was more complicated, that Barnes and Bullock, in particular, made things worse by making it so clear how much they wanted their guy, Marshall, to take over?

Just how bad or, potentially, good is Drew, actually? Will he be relegated to 10-15 mpg, as Anderson takes over? Will Shabazz, like HB, make clear his preference for his guy, Anderson? Will Drew become poisonous again? Or will his speed, compared to Anderson's super slo-mo, win him some plaudits and plenty of PT?

Despite all of LDII's amusing (from a Duke fan's perspective) personality traits, the one thing he did better than Marshall was defend. If, and this is a big IF, he buys into the role of a defense first guard who will only occasionally take on the primary ball-handling duties, he would be an asset to UCLA. He can guard the point on defense but play off of Anderson on the other end of the court, running the offense when needed. We all love to point and laugh at 2009-2010 and even the 2010-2011 season while LDII was in charge at UNC, but he actually played his part well enough in the 2008-2009 season when he was unquestionably playing second (or really, sixth/seventh) fiddle to Felton, Hansblah, Ellington, etc. He'll have to provide more minutes at UCLA, but I doubt he'll be asked to do much of the scoring. Honestly, he has a chance to completely rehabilitate his image. If he commits to playing team defense and doing what's best for the team on offense, UCLA will be much better for it and so will LDII. Still, I agree with everyone who has their doubts. Plus, with three freshman expected to pick up a lot of slack, there are always questionmarks even if the freshmen are really talented.

[UrinalCake]

IIRC, in the run-up to 2011-'12, there was a rough consensus that there were 3 likely-"great" teams - UK, UNC, tOSU - plus late-added-"great" UConn [Drummond's decision].

I remember differently. Perhaps my view of the world is skewed by living here in the triangle, but in the preseason last year I recall all of the media and fans declaring UNC to be far and away the #1 team. UK and OSU were way distant seconds, and there was serious talk of UNC going undefeated.

While i'm thinking about it, let me google the preseason rankings...

1 North Carolina (62) 1,620
2 Kentucky 1,501
3 Ohio State (1) 1,482
4 Connecticut (2) 1,433
5 Syracuse 1,338
6 Duke 1,301

Anyways, there's definitely no clear-cut favorite this year. All of the good teams lost lots of players. Indiana seems like a reasonable enough pick based on how they did last year and who they're keeping and adding. But I would have said the same thing about UCONN last year, so who knows...

[TexHawk]

Indiana seems like a reasonable enough pick based on how they did last year and who they're keeping and adding. But I would have said the same thing about UCONN last year, so who knows...

Ya, Indiana will be interesting. I have no problems with putting them at #1, but they were a pretty horrific defensive team last year. Curious to see if they can improve that.


Forgot to add earlier, one thing that will never peter out is my distaste for Missouri, and putting them at #10 with the guys they lost is ridiculous. Replacing them with Alex "I can't believe my 6 pts and 5 boards had all of CBB drooling this offseason" Oriakhi, some transfers, and a plodding Laurence Bowers is not going to cut it. With Bowers out in '11-12, they got to play that frightening pace with Kim English at the 4 spot. A healthy Bowers make them much more traditional, much easier to guard. They will finish #2 in the SEC by default, but that's not really saying much.

[CharlestonDevil]

IIRC, in the run-up to 2011-'12, there was a rough consensus that there were 3 likely-"great" teams - UK, UNC, tOSU - plus late-added-"great" UConn [Drummond's decision]. Going into 2012-'13, no likely greats. Any of 8-10 teams could impress and become a top-top team, as did 'Cuse last season, but no team is, on paper this early, as impressive looking as UK, UNC, tOSU last summer.

Given a relatively level playing field I'll put my money on Coach K any day of the week. And double that come March.

And for the record, I don't care how much so called "talent" UNC is bringing in. Outside of McAdoo they have incredibly average players (by UNC or Duke standards anyway). And you know what you you get when you combine mediocre players with a mediocre (in-game anyway) coach, you get a whole lotta nothing. That team is going to flame out in a big way. Write it down folks.

[Chicago 1995]

and be the one noting that we should be flattered to be ranked at 7, and that there's a heck of an argument we're on the overrated list.

Talk of number one seeds and runs in March isn't surprising on a fan board, but I think it's crazy unrealistic.

We've got as many questions as a lot of the teams we're downgrading, lost a very, very important player, and frankly, finished in a way -- and not just the loss to Lehigh -- that there should be more questions about us than about teams like Ohio State or Syracuse or Kansas, among others.

[luvdahops]

Given a relatively level playing field I'll put my money on Coach K any day of the week. And double that come March.

And for the record, I don't care how much so called "talent" UNC is bringing in. Outside of McAdoo they have incredibly average players (by UNC or Duke standards anyway). And you know what you you get when you combine mediocre players with a mediocre (in-game anyway) coach, you get a whole lotta nothing. That team is going to flame out in a big way. Write it down folks.

I would love to agree with you but can't. Reggie Bullock made big strides this year after an injury-plagued freshman year. He is a very good two-way player and could contend for 1st Team All-ACC this year. They have 2 other solid veterans on the perimeter with Strickland and McDonald, and it is reasonable to expect Hairston (McD's A-A) to improve after an erratic and disappointing rookie season. So they should be very good on the perimeter, especially if incoming PG Marcus Paige is good enough to contribute right away, either starting or playing major minutes in relief of Strickland. The big question mark is frontcourt depth. Desmond Hubert showed little this year, and none of their incoming recruits appear to be immediate impact players.

The Heels could very well crash and burn. But I think it is more likely that they will contend for the ACC title but finish 3rd or 4th behind Duke, State and possibly Miami.

[CharlestonDevil]

I would love to agree with you but can't. Reggie Bullock made big strides this year after an injury-plagued freshman year. He is a very good two-way player and could contend for 1st Team All-ACC this year.

You mean 8 ppg Reggie Bullock? And that is with two other equally talented guards sitting out for the year.
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/team/north-carolina-tar-heels-basketball/stats/71666?q=north-carolina-tar-heels-basketball



The Heels could very well crash and burn. But I think it is more likely that they will contend for the ACC title but finish 3rd or 4th behind Duke, State and possibly Miami.

Sounds like pure mediocrity to me.

I will give you this, TJ Hairston does have a large upside. Frankly I was surprised at how little he contributed to the team last year, but he could burst on the scene very quickly. Also, this unc team is very similar to last year's Duke team in that there is no proven go to guy, on top of the fact that they will be heavily relying on freshmen. Can you imagine last year's Duke team without Rivers? That is what unc will be like if they cannot gel and find a way to consistently get the ball to McAdoo. I would be shocked if this ended up being a Sweet 16 team. Roy just does not have it in him.

[Turtleboy]

I'll be very surprised if Kyle Anderson is not the starting point guard for UCLA. And he's a real good one.

[CDu]

Just how bad or, potentially, good is Drew, actually? Will he be relegated to 10-15 mpg, as Anderson takes over? Will Shabazz, like HB, make clear his preference for his guy, Anderson? Will Drew become poisonous again? Or will his speed, compared to Anderson's super slo-mo, win him some plaudits and plenty of PT?

Perhaps this is a wording thing, but I don't see Anderson playing PG defensively. I could see him running the offense, but someone else will need to guard the opposing PG. Perhaps that is another SG, perhaps it is Drew. I wouldn't be at all surprised for Anderson to run the offense. But that doesn't preclude Drew from major minutes in my opinion.

[luvdahops]

Perhaps this is a wording thing, but I don't see Anderson playing PG defensively. I could see him running the offense, but someone else will need to guard the opposing PG. Perhaps that is another SG, perhaps it is Drew. I wouldn't be at all surprised for Anderson to run the offense. But that doesn't preclude Drew from major minutes in my opinion.

Agreed. Anderson will be a defensive liability no matter who they put him on, and he will be way too exposed trying to defend opposing points.

[luvdahops]

You mean 8 ppg Reggie Bullock? And that is with two other equally talented guards sitting out for the year.
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/team/north-carolina-tar-heels-basketball/stats/71666?q=north-carolina-tar-heels-basketball




Sounds like pure mediocrity to me.

I will give you this, TJ Hairston does have a large upside. Frankly I was surprised at how little he contributed to the team last year, but he could burst on the scene very quickly. Also, this unc team is very similar to last year's Duke team in that there is no proven go to guy, on top of the fact that they will be heavily relying on freshmen. Can you imagine last year's Duke team without Rivers? That is what unc will be like if they cannot gel and find a way to consistently get the ball to McAdoo. I would be shocked if this ended up being a Sweet 16 team. Roy just does not have it in him.

Wow, amazing depth of analysis there. Bullock was a McD A-A and the #16 rated recruit (RSCI) in the class of 2010 (vs. #14 in 2011 for Hairston, whom you see as having large upside). Yes, Bullock only averaged 8.8 ppg, but on a team that had 3 first team All-ACC performers each averaging between 14 and 17 ppg, including the conference POY (Zeller) and another player who rarely turned down shot opportunities (Barnes). So he wasn't expected to be a big scorer, though he had his moments, including a star turn in the OT win over Ohio U in the tourney. Bullock also averaged 5.1 boards per game playing mostly at the 2, on an incredibly strong rebounding team, and was the Heels' best perimeter defender. So the kid has some game.

Not sure how old you are, but perhaps you remember a Duke player named Chris Carrawell. Averaged 9.9 ppg on the 99 Duke squad that went 37-2 and featured Elton Brand (17.7), Trajan Langdon (17.3) and Will Avery (14.9), with Battier (9.1) rounding out the starting 5. CC was a versatile wing player who defended well and did many of the "little things" to help that star-laden team win ballgames. As a senior, he was counted on to play a more prominent role in the offense, and responded with 16.9ppg and an overall year that earned him ACC POY honors. I'm not arguing that Bullock will be ACC POY this year, only that he could make a similar jump in relative productivity. Given his pedigree, I don't think that is a big stretch.

I'm also not sure I agree that they will be relying "heavily" on freshmen. McAdoo, Bullock, Strickland, McDonald and Hairston provide a veteran core to build around. They do need Paige to contribute, and 1 or 2 of the bigs to be at least serviceable. I would not call that heavy reliance.

[gumbomoop]

Perhaps this is a wording thing, but I don't see Anderson playing PG defensively. I could see him running the offense, but someone else will need to guard the opposing PG. Perhaps that is another SG, perhaps it is Drew. I wouldn't be at all surprised for Anderson to run the offense. But that doesn't preclude Drew from major minutes in my opinion.

Good point. I don't think Drew will play only 15 mpg, particularly because they don't seem to have other solid high-major guards on their roster, unless someone who played little last year emerges.

The broader point I was trying to raise is: how good is Drew, anyhow? Is he as ineffective as our jokes here made him out to be? Was he a reasonably capable PG who just became erratic when required by Roy's system to play super-up-tempo? Presumably Howland was happy to get him, either because he had tried to recruit Drew out of HS, and/or because he sensed that this talented player simply got caught in an unfortunate situation, even if partially of his own [or his mom's] making.

It does make sense that Anderson and Drew will share PG-type duties, and might well log major minutes, both of them. I'll certainly hope Drew and the Wears play well when the Bruins meet the Heels in the NCAAT next spring.

[azzefkram]

and be the one noting that we should be flattered to be ranked at 7, and that there's a heck of an argument we're on the overrated list.

Talk of number one seeds and runs in March isn't surprising on a fan board, but I think it's crazy unrealistic.

We've got as many questions as a lot of the teams we're downgrading, lost a very, very important player, and frankly, finished in a way -- and not just the loss to Lehigh -- that there should be more questions about us than about teams like Ohio State or Syracuse or Kansas, among others.

While I'll agree that Miles was very, very important, flattered is a a bit much. We definitely have issues like just about everyone else on the list but we are returning 3 multi-year senior starters. We should have quality depth. If Quinn is healthy and I'll grant that's a big if, a number one seed and a run in March is not out of the question.

Best part of all this is they play the games and then have an awesome tournament at the end of the year to decide it all.

[BlueDevil16]

While I'll agree that Miles was very, very important, flattered is a a bit much. We definitely have issues like just about everyone else on the list but we are returning 3 multi-year senior starters. We should have quality depth. If Quinn is healthy and I'll grant that's a big if, a number one seed and a run in March is not out of the question.

Best part of all this is they play the games and then have an awesome tournament at the end of the year to decide it all.

I think he was talking about Sub0, not Miles.

[OldPhiKap]

As much as I admire sub0, and enjoyed watching him, I think we'll be a stronger TEAM this year. Game on.

And I suspect that, if anything sticks in K's craw from last year, it's team defense. That will be an emphasis from day one. Moreso than usual.

We will be hungry and talented. If we stay healthy, we will be very happy with the upcoming year.

Look forward to the season, after football of course.

Go Duke, Go K, Go Cut!