What's with all the transfers?

[Son of Jarhead]

Just heard on WRAL-TV that over 300 men's basketball players have announced they are transfering since the season ended. Is that significantly higher than other years? It sure feels like it. Any ideas on why so many?

[Mike Corey]

2572

[bounce840]

My theories is that mostly the state of college basketball today. I think that's it's probably just a plague. Unhappiness and most likely playing time. But, situations occur and a lot of times it might just be the coach. Who knows.

[ACCBBallFan]

Just heard on WRAL-TV that over 300 men's basketball players have announced they are transfering since the season ended. Is that significantly higher than other years? It sure feels like it. Any ideas on why so many?

This article is a few weeks old, so count may have grown from 300 to 350 by now.

2012 End-of-Year Updated Transfer List: 300-plus and growing ...

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/18443369/2012-end-of-year-updated-transfer-list-300-plus-and-growing

I have not analyzed the list by class but expect the frosh reason for leaving may be as much related to adjusting from HS to college rigors and the upperclassmen mostly due to PT concerns.

Players jsut have a tough time going from big fish in small pond to small fish in big pond one year to the next, much the same as students do.

The grass is always greener (wherever it is watered the most) but player want to wanted by another school and tend to be ignore having to sit for a year.

If they toughed it out and stayed, they would at least play some that first year and still have just as good an opportunity for PT in later years at the school where they are as upperclassmen and one and done's move on and as they themself improve to level they wrongly view themself already at now.

[anon]

2572

I don't understand the implication. BuschDevil didn't assign blame anywhere...

[dukedoc]

I don't understand the implication. BuschDevil didn't assign blame anywhere...

I think what he was suggesting was that whereas many years ago if someone was struggling and not finding his groove, the onus would be on the player himself to find a niche and make it better. However, in today's world it's not he player's issue, but rather his context (the coach, the program) that's the problem. If things aren't working, don't change what you're doing, change your program.

I don't think we know for sure that this purported mentality is truly the reason, but I think it makes sense for perhaps a proportion of those who transfer.

[Mike Corey]

I think what he was suggesting was that whereas many years ago if someone was struggling and not finding his groove, the onus would be on the player himself to find a niche and make it better. However, in today's world it's not he player's issue, but rather his context (the coach, the program) that's the problem. If things aren't working, don't change what you're doing, change your program.

I don't think we know for sure that this purported mentality is truly the reason, but I think it makes sense for perhaps a proportion of those who transfer.

Sometimes, a picture speaks 1,000 words; sometimes, it only requires 98.

[miramar]

I think what he was suggesting was that whereas many years ago if someone was struggling and not finding his groove, the onus would be on the player himself to find a niche and make it better. However, in today's world it's not he player's issue, but rather his context (the coach, the program) that's the problem. If things aren't working, don't change what you're doing, change your program.

I don't think we know for sure that this purported mentality is truly the reason, but I think it makes sense for perhaps a proportion of those who transfer.

that we are in a different world in another sense. It used to be that quality players would accept the idea that they would have to sit in order to be part of a big-time program. Perhaps the best example would be Swen Nater, who played behind Bill Walton at UCLA. He never started a game, but left with two NCAA championships. Then he played 11 years in the pros and led both the ABA and NBA in rebounding one season.

Nowadays guys go in as Burger Boys thinking that they are the number X player in the country, meaning that they are super talented and if they don't get playing time, something must be wrong with the program. As a result of that mentality, we even have an 18 year old recruit who has the audacity to claim that one of the greatest coaches of all time can't develop big men (why haven't we told that bozo to take a hike?).

Worse yet, we have fellow board members (who should know better) that have the same mentality. Why didn't Coach K play the guy more? If he had, he wouldn't have transferred. Maybe Coach K should have set up a field goal quota. The kid only scored 11 times on a relatively weak team, but perhaps he should have left him in until he scored 20 or 30 times. I'm sure that would have solved everything.

I think we would all be better off and admit that player rankings go out the window the minute the guy steps on campus. Each guy in essence starts with a clean slate and either lives up to his reputation (Battier, Redick, Irving, etc.) or doesn't (Beard, Burgess, Boateng, etc.). And sometimes players exceed expectations, such as the Florida class that won two championships (and could have won a third if they stayed) despite being the 10th rated class in the country.

[Scorp4me]

Kids these days want instant gratification. I think it's telling that it's so many and no one is really safe.

For that matter fans and administration want instant gratification. So a larger coaching turnover probably results in more transfers too.

[patentgeek]

This article includes some numbers for top 100 recruits for the 8 years between 2002-10.

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2104

The conclusion of the author seems to be:

"If someone said, "What is the transfer rate for Top 100 players?" I'd tell them this:

About one in four players are expected to transfer. Nearly all of them do so before their junior year, although the breakdown between freshmen and sophomore transfers is about even."

[MCFinARL]

2572

When I saw this cartoon, I thought, "Bingo!" The culture of basketball has its own particular issues, but a lot of what is happening there is reflective of broader trends. If kids aren't succeeding, it's not because they aren't trying hard enough, it's because the teacher/coach/boss/system has failed to recognize their talent and adapt to their preferences.

One of the things that is so impressive about Kyrie Irving is that he has the self-confidence of a player who recognizes his own ability, but he also understands completely how much he still has to learn. He really does seem to live by his motto, "hungry and humble," without veering into false humility. It made him a perfect fit for Duke, where he learned a great deal, even while on the bench with his injury. But increasingly, kids like that are the exception, i fear.

Would have given you pitchforks but I'm not allowed.

[yancem]

When I saw this cartoon, I thought, "Bingo!" The culture of basketball has its own particular issues, but a lot of what is happening there is reflective of broader trends. If kids aren't succeeding, it's not because they aren't trying hard enough, it's because the teacher/coach/boss/system has failed to recognize their talent and adapt to their preferences.

One of the things that is so impressive about Kyrie Irving is that he has the self-confidence of a player who recognizes his own ability, but he also understands completely how much he still has to learn. He really does seem to live by his motto, "hungry and humble," without veering into false humility. It made him a perfect fit for Duke, where he learned a great deal, even while on the bench with his injury. But increasingly, kids like that are the exception, i fear.

Would have given you pitchforks but I'm not allowed.

That's the thing, this really isn't a basketball phenomenon. I see this same attitude everywhere I turn. Not to get too into the geopolitical realm but our entire culture has become about instant gratification and we are raising a me first entitlement generation(s). I have friends that are supervisors and deal with kids just our of college expect raises and promotions within months of being hired and in most cases aren't even doing their jobs well, if at all. I have to wonder if the current economy might start the pendulum swinging back toward personal responsibility and stronger work ethics. Something good has to come from it, right?

[MCFinARL]

That's the thing, this really isn't a basketball phenomenon. I see this same attitude everywhere I turn. Not to get too into the geopolitical realm but our entire culture has become about instant gratification and we are raising a me first entitlement generation(s). I have friends that are supervisors and deal with kids just our of college expect raises and promotions within months of being hired and in most cases aren't even doing their jobs well, if at all. I have to wonder if the current economy might start the pendulum swinging back toward personal responsibility and stronger work ethics. Something good has to come from it, right?

Well, but they don't have to do their jobs well because they have self-esteem! They know they are worthwhile, no matter what. It all starts with handing out trophies for "participation." (I'm exaggerating, I think.) As for the impact of the economy, I hope so. The college students I teach seem anxious about jobs--but it doesn't actually make most of the work any harder, it just makes them wheedle me even more in search of higher grades for the work they choose to do.

[UrinalCake]

Another factor is that 20 years ago it was the norm for a player to take four years to develop, and then if he's good enough he'd be drafted into the NBA. Now, there's a perception that if a player stays for four years it's only because he's not good enough. You better be doing something by your sophomore year, otherwise your window has passed.

I don't know what percentage of the 300-odd players who transfer see themselves as legitimate NBA prospects, but if they're not getting enough playing time early then perhaps they feel they need to move somewhere where they can make a more immediate impact lest they miss their opportunity.

[FerryFor50]

Another factor is that 20 years ago it was the norm for a player to take four years to develop, and then if he's good enough he'd be drafted into the NBA. Now, there's a perception that if a player stays for four years it's only because he's not good enough. You better be doing something by your sophomore year, otherwise your window has passed.

I don't know what percentage of the 300-odd players who transfer see themselves as legitimate NBA prospects, but if they're not getting enough playing time early then perhaps they feel they need to move somewhere where they can make a more immediate impact lest they miss their opportunity.

I'd like to compare that percentage to:

- the percentage of players who think they're good enough for the NBA who never end up there
- the percentage of players who make it to the NBA but either don't last very long or end up as bench riders for their entire careers

I think a bigger part of the problem is that players have even more voices in their ear, telling them how good they'll be. Those are the same voices with dollar signs in their eyes.

[Kedsy]

- the percentage of players who think they're good enough for the NBA who never end up there

Of those picked in the first round of the 2011 NBA draft, only three players played in college and got fewer than 30 minutes a game* as a freshman:

Nikola Vucevic (23 at USC)
MarShon Brooks (18 at Providence)
Nolan Smith (15 at Duke)

* - I think someone else got 29+ mpg as a freshman, but I can't remember who and I'm lumping him in with the 30+ guys.


What this says to me is if someone is transferring because he thinks he's an NBA player but he couldn't get off the bench his freshman year, there's a really good chance he's wrong.

If he's transferring because he can't get off the bench but he just wants to play more, or some personal reason or he doesn't get along with his coach or his teammates, that's a completely different story, but someone who barely plays as a frosh and then becomes an NBA first round pick is a rarity. I'm sure it happens occasionally (Tom Gugliotta comes to mind), but not very often, and not nearly enough to justify 300+ transfers a year.

[Jderf]

Those are the same voices with dollar signs in their eyes.

This metaphor is amazing.

[bdeviled11]

Doing absolutely no research, how many transfer kids come out early after switching schools? And in hearing how Duke really is going after some of these kids, does it help ensure that Duke will get multiple years from talented players? Pretty creative if that is the case.

[CoachJ10]

that we are in a different world in another sense. It used to be that quality players would accept the idea that they would have to sit in order to be part of a big-time program. Perhaps the best example would be Swen Nater, who played behind Bill Walton at UCLA. He never started a game, but left with two NCAA championships. Then he played 11 years in the pros and led both the ABA and NBA in rebounding one season.

Nowadays guys go in as Burger Boys thinking that they are the number X player in the country, meaning that they are super talented and if they don't get playing time, something must be wrong with the program. As a result of that mentality, we even have an 18 year old recruit who has the audacity to claim that one of the greatest coaches of all time can't develop big men (why haven't we told that bozo to take a hike?).

Worse yet, we have fellow board members (who should know better) that have the same mentality. Why didn't Coach K play the guy more? If he had, he wouldn't have transferred. Maybe Coach K should have set up a field goal quota. The kid only scored 11 times on a relatively weak team, but perhaps he should have left him in until he scored 20 or 30 times. I'm sure that would have solved everything.

I think we would all be better off and admit that player rankings go out the window the minute the guy steps on campus. Each guy in essence starts with a clean slate and either lives up to his reputation (Battier, Redick, Irving, etc.) or doesn't (Beard, Burgess, Boateng, etc.). And sometimes players exceed expectations, such as the Florida class that won two championships (and could have won a third if they stayed) despite being the 10th rated class in the country.

This is a great point. Alas, in this media overload world we live in, we all fall victim to the Mickie Dee / "100 best high school senior effect" all too often.

[dyedwab]

What this says to me is if someone is transferring because he thinks he's an NBA player but he couldn't get off the bench his freshman year, there's a really good chance he's wrong.


Really nice research, Kedsy. I'm a bit surprised by the conclusion, but that's the beauty of evidence. It lets you react to something.

[Newton_14]

Here is a good article written by Luke Wynn of SI who performed a study on this as well. He takes a look at not only college transfers but also high school transfers and how the two relate. The numbers show that kids who bounce around several high schools are far more likely to transfer from their college choice vs kids who attended only one high school
Link to the article (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/08/01/commitment.trends/index.html)

Here is a table from the article

The rising trend of high school transferring splits of top-100 recruits, 2007-2011


Class
One HS
Multiple HS
Avg. # of HS


2007
74%
26%
1.37


2008
66%
34%
1.42%


2009
59%
41%
1.57


2010
53%
47%
1.67


2011
53%
47%
1.69



As for College transfers, for several years now, the number of transfers each year has been in the neighborhood of 300-350. It's a common theme and Duke is not immune. Reasons vary of course, but it is interesting to see the data. If a kid attend multiple high schools, they are a higher risk to transfer in college than their peers who attended one high school.

[throatybeard]

Really nice research, Kedsy. I'm a bit surprised by the conclusion, but that's the beauty of evidence. It lets you react to something.

That post is more evidence of why the software won't let me give Kedsy any more positive spork feedback than I already have.

[Son of Jarhead]

Here is a good article written by Luke Wynn of SI who performed a study on this as well. He takes a look at not only college transfers but also high school transfers and how the two relate. The numbers show that kids who bounce around several high schools are far more likely to transfer from their college choice vs kids who attended only one high school
Link to the article (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/08/01/commitment.trends/index.html)

Here is a table from the article

The rising trend of high school transferring splits of top-100 recruits, 2007-2011


Class
One HS
Multiple HS
Avg. # of HS


2007
74%
26%
1.37


2008
66%
34%
1.42%


2009
59%
41%
1.57


2010
53%
47%
1.67


2011
53%
47%
1.69



As for College transfers, for several years now, the number of transfers each year has been in the neighborhood of 300-350. It's a common theme and Duke is not immune. Reasons vary of course, but it is interesting to see the data. If a kid attend multiple high schools, they are a higher risk to transfer in college than their peers who attended one high school.

Thanks for the link, Newton_14. This is just the info I was looking for. Very good stuff.

I knew all you guys would have some interesting things to say to my inquiry. I wonder what solutions, if any are even possible, college basketball could look at should this issue become an even greater worry in the coming years. One-&-dones and transfers really can wreak avok for a program, especially the elite ones, particularly regarding continuity in player rosters. Teams like our championship unit in 2010, with 3 seniors and 2 juniors starting, may be near impossible to put together, or at least very rarely done.

[Son of Jarhead]

Of those picked in the first round of the 2011 NBA draft, only three players played in college and got fewer than 30 minutes a game* as a freshman:

Nikola Vucevic (23 at USC)
MarShon Brooks (18 at Providence)
Nolan Smith (15 at Duke)

* - I think someone else got 29+ mpg as a freshman, but I can't remember who and I'm lumping him in with the 30+ guys.


What this says to me is if someone is transferring because he thinks he's an NBA player but he couldn't get off the bench his freshman year, there's a really good chance he's wrong.

If he's transferring because he can't get off the bench but he just wants to play more, or some personal reason or he doesn't get along with his coach or his teammates, that's a completely different story, but someone who barely plays as a frosh and then becomes an NBA first round pick is a rarity. I'm sure it happens occasionally (Tom Gugliotta comes to mind), but not very often, and not nearly enough to justify 300+ transfers a year.

I think Mason will have a good shot next year at being like Nolan here, as he averaged 14 or so minutes his freshman year, and will hopefully (after a stellar senior campaign next year) get picked in the first round. This makes me wonder if there could be a good study done of data following NBA players and their increased minutes/production through out their college years, and what that study would find. I imagine we'd see Coach K among the best coaches at "developing" their players. -Ha! Take that, negative-recruiter-man!- Of course having more players in th league now helps increase K's odds, but still, it would be facinating to look at.

[sporthenry]

Of those picked in the first round of the 2011 NBA draft, only three players played in college and got fewer than 30 minutes a game* as a freshman:

Nikola Vucevic (23 at USC)
MarShon Brooks (18 at Providence)
Nolan Smith (15 at Duke)

* - I think someone else got 29+ mpg as a freshman, but I can't remember who and I'm lumping him in with the 30+ guys.


What this says to me is if someone is transferring because he thinks he's an NBA player but he couldn't get off the bench his freshman year, there's a really good chance he's wrong.

If he's transferring because he can't get off the bench but he just wants to play more, or some personal reason or he doesn't get along with his coach or his teammates, that's a completely different story, but someone who barely plays as a frosh and then becomes an NBA first round pick is a rarity. I'm sure it happens occasionally (Tom Gugliotta comes to mind), but not very often, and not nearly enough to justify 300+ transfers a year.

I would say with the lockout, you might have some skewed data since many people opted to stay in school In 2010, you had Lazar Hayward at 16.3 minutes, Daniel Orton (13.2 minutes), Jordan Crawford (25 minutes), Quincy Pondexter (24 minutes), Trevor Booker/Damion James (26 minutes), EWill (16.6 minutes), Larry Sanders (16.6 minutes), Ed Davis (18.8 minutes), Cole Aldrich (8.3 minutes), Ekpe Udoh (20.3 minutes).

So certainly it is troubling if you don't play much and you'd also have to look at who played above these guys. But one thing to note is that in two years, it happened to two Duke guys (and could easily happen to Mason, happened to Henderson and Shelden as well) which goes along with the whole idea that K tends to not rely on freshmen as much whether its trust or the fact he has so much upper-class talent already. As many have alluded to, when Olek or Boateng transferred it was more of a hope they succeed b/c it was evident they would not play, but with G it seems more like an E-Will transfer where he could have very easily helped the team out next year. Perhaps I'm wrong and Murphy and our recruitment of Parker show a bright future but Gbinije filled a need.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Of those picked in the first round of the 2011 NBA draft, only three players played in college and got fewer than 30 minutes a game* as a freshman:

Nikola Vucevic (23 at USC)
MarShon Brooks (18 at Providence)
Nolan Smith (15 at Duke)

* - I think someone else got 29+ mpg as a freshman, but I can't remember who and I'm lumping him in with the 30+ guys.


What this says to me is if someone is transferring because he thinks he's an NBA player but he couldn't get off the bench his freshman year, there's a really good chance he's wrong.

If he's transferring because he can't get off the bench but he just wants to play more, or some personal reason or he doesn't get along with his coach or his teammates, that's a completely different story, but someone who barely plays as a frosh and then becomes an NBA first round pick is a rarity. I'm sure it happens occasionally (Tom Gugliotta comes to mind), but not very often, and not nearly enough to justify 300+ transfers a year.

Googs got 8.1 mpg as a freshman. More recently, Cole Aldrich got 8.3 mpg as a freshman (and was drafted 11th in 2010 draft). Just more evidence in support of your findings... and even then, these guys did actually get off the bench a little.

[Listen to Quants]

Sometimes, a picture speaks 1,000 words; sometimes, it only requires 98.


and 1. Thank you Mr. Corey.

[Listen to Quants]

Of those picked in the first round of the 2011 NBA draft, only three players played in college and got fewer than 30 minutes a game* as a freshman:

Nikola Vucevic (23 at USC)
MarShon Brooks (18 at Providence)
Nolan Smith (15 at Duke)

* - I think someone else got 29+ mpg as a freshman, but I can't remember who and I'm lumping him in with the 30+ guys.


What this says to me is if someone is transferring because he thinks he's an NBA player but he couldn't get off the bench his freshman year, there's a really good chance he's wrong.

If he's transferring because he can't get off the bench but he just wants to play more, or some personal reason or he doesn't get along with his coach or his teammates, that's a completely different story, but someone who barely plays as a frosh and then becomes an NBA first round pick is a rarity. I'm sure it happens occasionally (Tom Gugliotta comes to mind), but not very often, and not nearly enough to justify 300+ transfers a year.

"justify", no; motivate, perhaps (sadly). I sincerely hope that the bulk of the 300+ transfers are doing so for non-NBA career reasons. A lot of such reasons are possible and it might actually be a good thing (leaving a bastard coach, etc.). If 300 kids think they are one of three, then the self awareness of the college basketball players is even worse than I suspected.

Thanks much for the valuable numbers.

[Dev11]

As for College transfers, for several years now, the number of transfers each year has been in the neighborhood of 300-350.

Important to note the number here, relative to there being 347 (quick Google search result) DI schools. At 300 transfers a year, each school has approximately 1 transfer per year, so although people may start freaking out that we're losing so many players (Gbinije, Czyz, Williams, King, Boateng, Boykins...), we're just in the norm.