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Kedsy
04-12-2012, 12:13 PM
I just went back through the entire Coach K era, looking for Duke teams with three or more seniors who played 15+ minutes a game. Here's the data:

1986: Alarie, Bilas, J Dawkins, D Henderson; 37-3, NCAA championship game
1989: Ferry, J Smith, Snyder; 28-8, Final Four
1990: Abdelnaby, Brickey, P Henderson; 29-9, championship game
1994: G Hill, Lang, M Clark; 28-6, championship game
2006: Redick, S Williams, Dockery, Melchionni; 32-4, Sweet 16
2010: Scheyer, Zoubek, Thomas; 35-5, NCAA Champion
2013: Mas Plumlee, Kelly, Curry, Dawkins; tbd...

It's worth noting that a lot of these seniors weren't superstars, and also that four of the six listed teams probably "overachieved" in the NCAA tournament (and only one underachieved), at least compared to the general perception. It may not have been coincidence.

Admittedly not very many data points. But to me, There's enough here to say the people who are writing us off already may end up being surprised. Your conclusion may vary.

matts83
04-12-2012, 12:36 PM
Great information! I know many are disappointed that we didn’t get Shabazz, but our season isn’t over before it starts. Last season we “overachieved” but isn’t that a good thing for this next year’s team. We all know we have the best Coach out there and he can and will make this next year’s team accomplish great things. I can’t wait to see what will happen and I would rather have a team of seniors that have played great together for 3 years already then a team that could have issues meshing. And I know we lost our guy that could find a way to score but I have a good feeling K has some ideas get shots up.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-12-2012, 12:42 PM
This is an excellent post. I would say that if anything, the value of experienced leaders on a team is amplified by the one-and-done nature of many teams. There was a grittiness and determination our team developed late in the season as a result of those late game comebacks that I would love to see our guys build on next year. I'm with you, I really like the make up of this team with or without another recruit or transfer.

To me the "x factor" when and if someone will step up and take a leadership role with this squad. It was the biggest flaw of our team in 2011 (outside of an proven PG). I'd love for that to be Mason or Seth as seniors, but would be just as happy if it ends up being an underclassman who might lead the team for a few years.

I'm excited that this team will not have the weighty expectations that recent teams have been saddled with. 2010-2011 felt the pressure of "defending champions." Last year's tea seemed to peak early - perhaps as a result of the well-discussed overseas trip. The coming year's team may have just as much chance for big success, and I have great faith that Coach K will have them executing to the height of their potential come next March.

Bluealum
04-12-2012, 12:53 PM
I just went back through the entire Coach K era, looking for Duke teams with three or more seniors who played 15+ minutes a game. Here's the data:

1986: Alarie, Bilas, J Dawkins, D Henderson; 37-3, NCAA championship game
1989: Ferry, J Smith, Snyder; 28-8, Final Four
1990: Abdelnaby, Brickey, P Henderson; 29-9, championship game
1994: G Hill, Lang, M Clark; 28-6, championship game
2006: Redick, S Williams, Dockery, Melchionni; 32-4, Sweet 16
2010: Scheyer, Zoubek, Thomas; 35-5, NCAA Champion
2013: Mas Plumlee, Kelly, Curry, Dawkins; tbd...

It's worth noting that a lot of these seniors weren't superstars, and also that four of the six listed teams probably "overachieved" in the NCAA tournament (and only one underachieved), at least compared to the general perception. It may not have been coincidence.

Admittedly not very many data points. But to me, There's enough here to say the people who are writing us off already may end up being surprised. Your conclusion may vary.

Great, great thread (though a minor quibble, I would say that Danny, Grant, JJ and possibly Shel were superstars) I love this point, championship data or not. I would absolutely be happy to let Kentucky have their way (1 and done approach that works once in a decade) and we have ours which involves a lot of very good players that stick around for four years and also succeed at a very high rate with occasional deep championship runs.

I would be absolutely thrilled if we never went after the top 10 prospects each year, assuming that all of them realistically have a high probability of going pro in a year or two, and focusing on the next 30 or 40 players. Guys like {g}, who play sparingly the first year but learn like crazy and have the physical ability (this is important) and smarts to improve measurably over 3/4 years. If we continuously recruit to that strategy we could frequently have 3 good seniors on our team.

I think transcendent talents are fun to watch, but the emotional investment in guys that stay four years is so much greater. The focus and joy becomes watching them grow and is then measured not only in championships, which takes a bit of luck anyway, but in their evolution. With a one and done that you hardly know, the only thrill is in the result.

When people think and talk of Austin, who looks like a great kid who was under appreciated as a person by the media, the 'shot' is milliseconds from their lips. What if he had not made it?? Still the same great kid, but we hardly knew him.

When I think of Nolan, it's no single moment. It's the great smile and Dawkins short shorts, and funny clips on blue planet. The championship was a bonus (big!) but his was a time full of memories. As a fan that means a lot.

Cheers to the seniors starting with Miles who brought a lot of great memories, and best of luck over the summer of development for the next senior class. Glad we got our most important recruit next year (Mason) as well. Should be a summer full of optimism, it will be for me! And I may be in the absolute minority, but am glad we did not get Bazz (though he seems like a great kid) and I hope we don't get J. Parker. I would rather those freshman superstar starting spots be used instead by junior and senior stars that have developed over time and have shared some part of the Duke experience that I can relate to (even if it is only a little). I am okay being out on a limb on this, and I will surely root for any 1 and done players we get as I did Austin, but I will silently root against us picking up the very best players in each class for the reasons above. I for one like Duke to be different than Kentucky, and I hope the difference continues to be apparent in our recruiting strategy despite UK's recent championship.

Bojangles4Eva
04-12-2012, 12:54 PM
I just went back through the entire Coach K era, looking for Duke teams with three or more seniors who played 15+ minutes a game. Here's the data:

1986: Alarie, Bilas, J Dawkins, D Henderson; 37-3, NCAA championship game
1989: Ferry, J Smith, Snyder; 28-8, Final Four
1990: Abdelnaby, Brickey, P Henderson; 29-9, championship game
1994: G Hill, Lang, M Clark; 28-6, championship game
2006: Redick, S Williams, Dockery, Melchionni; 32-4, Sweet 16
2010: Scheyer, Zoubek, Thomas; 35-5, NCAA Champion
2013: Mas Plumlee, Kelly, Curry, Dawkins; tbd...

It's worth noting that a lot of these seniors weren't superstars, and also that four of the six listed teams probably "overachieved" in the NCAA tournament (and only one underachieved), at least compared to the general perception. It may not have been coincidence.

Admittedly not very many data points. But to me, There's enough here to say the people who are writing us off already may end up being surprised. Your conclusion may vary.

Glad you brought this up. I pointed this out on another thread a few weeks ago, but someone brought to my attention that I forgot 1995. However, whether that is considered a K era team is up for debate since he was out the majority of the season with the back issues. Also, did 1998 not have 3 seniors playing significant minutes in Wojo, Price, McLeod? I remember Price's PT dropped, but can't remember by how much.

The only thing I think is worth mentioning is to consider not only a) the Fr - Jr players that were also on these teams (i.e. '86 had Ferry, '89 - '90 had Christian, and '10 had Smith/Singler) and b) the all-America type talent that was in those senior classes ('86 Dawkins, '89 Ferry, '94 Hill, '06 Reddick/Williams, '10 Scheyer).

I think for next years teams to make strides like the ones you mentioned, we either need at least one solid underclassmen performer (Alex?) and/or at least one senior to be an all-America caliber player (I would say Mason is the frontrunner there).

CDu
04-12-2012, 01:06 PM
Glad you brought this up. I pointed this out on another thread a few weeks ago, but someone brought to my attention that I forgot 1995. However, whether that is considered a K era team is up for debate since he was out the majority of the season with the back issues. Also, did 1998 not have 3 seniors playing significant minutes in Wojo, Price, McLeod? I remember Price's PT dropped, but can't remember by how much.

The only thing I think is worth mentioning is to consider not only a) the Fr - Jr players that were also on these teams (i.e. '86 had Ferry, '89 - '90 had Christian, and '10 had Smith/Singler) and b) the all-America type talent that was in those senior classes ('86 Dawkins, '89 Ferry, '94 Hill, '06 Reddick/Williams, '10 Scheyer).

I think for next years teams to make strides like the ones you mentioned, we either need at least one solid underclassmen performer (Alex?) and/or at least one senior to be an all-America caliber player (I would say Mason is the frontrunner there).

Price played very little in 1998. He was coming back from academic suspension, so he missed the early season. And by that point he'd been overtaken by Langdon, Carrawell, and Battier at the SG/SF spots. And Ferry played a fairly limited role (just 5.9ppg) in 1986. That team belonged to Dawkins, Alarie, and Henderson. Laettner was good but wasn't a star in 1989 (8.9ppg). That team belonged to Ferry, and that team definitely overachieved.

But I agree with your last sentence and the key points it includes. The common theme on those great teams was great players, not just senior players. It just so happened that in each of those cases we had a senior (or two) step up and become superstars in those seasons.

1986 had Dawkins and Alarie (not stepping up, but they remained stars). 1989 had Ferry. 1990 had Henderson and Laettner. 1994 had Hill. 2006 had Redick and Williams. 2010 had Scheyer, Singler, and Smith. And that's ignoring the role player contributions in those years.

It remains to be seen whether someone will step up like those guys. Mason and Curry seem like the most likely candidates to me. Kelly and Dawkins could potentially do it, but both have more limitations (Kelly athleticism and Dawkins ballhandling). It could be an underclassman, but someone would have to REALLY step up to make that happen.

Wander
04-12-2012, 01:14 PM
I have no proof of this, but I've always thought that individual seniors at Duke tend to experience an unexpected amount of improvement compared to seniors at other schools. I always meant to make a post going through our guys compared to some other schools to see if this is actually true but never got around to it. But off the top of my head, we've recently had:

Nolan Smith (from second team ACC to NPOY contender)
Jon Scheyer (from no individual honors to ACC POY contender and fringe NPOY contender)
Brian Zoubek (from a non-factor to one of the most valuable pieces on a national championship team)
Demarcus Nelson (from no individual honors to ACC POY contender and ACC DPOY winner)
JJ Redick (from lots of individual honors to one of the best seasons for a shooting guard in college basketball history)

And those are just guys who have made BIG jumps. I left off guys like Miles Plumlee, Shelden Williams, Sean Dockery, Lance Thomas, etc who made significant - but probably not out of line with the average player's development - improvement.

I can't think of another school where this is true to this extent.

luvdahops
04-12-2012, 01:21 PM
I have no proof of this, but I've always thought that individual seniors at Duke tend to experience an unexpected amount of improvement compared to seniors at other schools. I always meant to make a post going through our guys compared to some other schools to see if this is actually true but never got around to it. But off the top of my head, we've recently had:

Nolan Smith (from second team ACC to NPOY contender)
Jon Scheyer (from no individual honors to ACC POY contender and fringe NPOY contender)
Brian Zoubek (from a non-factor to one of the most valuable pieces on a national championship team)
Demarcus Nelson (from no individual honors to ACC POY contender and ACC DPOY winner)
JJ Redick (from lots of individual honors to one of the best seasons for a shooting guard in college basketball history)

And those are just guys who have made BIG jumps. I left off guys like Miles Plumlee, Shelden Williams, Sean Dockery, Lance Thomas, etc who made significant - but probably not out of line with the average player's development - improvement.

I can't think of another school where this is true to this extent.

Going back a little further in time:

Chris Carrawell (from third team to ACC POY and All-American)
Chris Collins (from no honors to second team ACC)
Tony Lang (from no honors to third team ACC
Alaa Abdelnaby (from no honors to third team ACC)

Collins, Lang and Alaa were all guys who had pretty sorry finishes to their junior years

Kedsy
04-12-2012, 01:24 PM
(though a minor quibble, I would say that Danny, Grant, JJ and possibly Shel were superstars)

I agree with you. I said "a lot" of the seniors weren't superstars. I didn't mean none of them were superstars. Obviously a few of them were.


Glad you brought this up. I pointed this out on another thread a few weeks ago, but someone brought to my attention that I forgot 1995. However, whether that is considered a K era team is up for debate since he was out the majority of the season with the back issues.

Good point about 1995. I skipped it because I didn't realize Kenny Blakeney played that many minutes (he actually played 17.9 mpg, but didn't play in four games; counting all 31 games that year he averaged 15.5 mpg). I think your argument that it's not a Coach K team is apropos, however, if for no other reason than Coach Gaudet played 9 guys for double-figure minutes, which has only happened once under Coach K (1998). So it's possible Blakeney would have played more with K at the helm, but it's also possible he would have dipped under 15 mpg. I also think that team would have won a lot more games with Coach K -- in Gaudet's 19 games, we had six losses by 3 points or fewer and another four losses by 5 to 7 points (in addition to our four wins). Three of our five double-digit losses were road games against top 10 teams and a fourth was in the ACCT to a top 10 team in a game we trailed by just one point at halftime. But obviously we'll never know what would have happened that season with a healthy Coach K.


Also, did 1998 not have 3 seniors playing significant minutes in Wojo, Price, McLeod? I remember Price's PT dropped, but can't remember by how much.

Ricky Price only played in 21 of our 36 games in 1997-98. He averaged 8.0 mpg in those 21 games, so 1998 definitely doesn't meet my criteria.

Classof06
04-12-2012, 02:13 PM
This is a good point. I have my reservations about next year's team (we'll still be good, just not sure we'll be great). That said, last time I felt this way was headed into the 2009-10 season. We have a TON of seniors going into next year; they can certainly make the jump to take Duke from a good team to a great team. Whether that happens or not, we shall see.

MCFinARL
04-12-2012, 03:10 PM
This is an excellent post. I would say that if anything, the value of experienced leaders on a team is amplified by the one-and-done nature of many teams. There was a grittiness and determination our team developed late in the season as a result of those late game comebacks that I would love to see our guys build on next year. I'm with you, I really like the make up of this team with or without another recruit or transfer.

To me the "x factor" when and if someone will step up and take a leadership role with this squad. It was the biggest flaw of our team in 2011 (outside of an proven PG). I'd love for that to be Mason or Seth as seniors, but would be just as happy if it ends up being an underclassman who might lead the team for a few years.

I'm excited that this team will not have the weighty expectations that recent teams have been saddled with. 2010-2011 felt the pressure of "defending champions." Last year's tea seemed to peak early - perhaps as a result of the well-discussed overseas trip. The coming year's team may have just as much chance for big success, and I have great faith that Coach K will have them executing to the height of their potential come next March.

FWIW, Mason explicitly cited "leadership" as one of the things he is coming back to work on at Duke. He is planning to be a leader, if not the leader, on this team, and that can only be a good thing. If he proves really good at it, once he makes it a point of emphasis, it could be a VERY good thing.

Scorp4me
04-12-2012, 03:14 PM
Good thread. I started to comment that this is probably different in the era when some many kids come out early, but I have to agree with the earlier poster that Seniors are probably even more important these days. Something else to think about for those lamenting (or not lamenting) missing on Shabazz. We've had arguably the best player in the past two classes...can't get them every year!

superdave
04-12-2012, 03:20 PM
Looking at the trends in their careers, I thought it might be cool to see what people expect out of the four seniors statistically. Here's my take -

Seth Curry - Seth averaged 13.2 in 30 minutes last season and was named 3rd team All-ACC. His scoring jumped from 9 to 13 and his field goal attempts jumped from 6.5 to 9.9. Seth endured a shooting slump late in the year though, reflected in his drop from .435 to .383 on 3-s. Some of that may been because he was no longer playing alongside Kyle and Nolan though. He developed a pretty good floater in the lane as he became more confident in driving to the hole later in the year.

Seth's consistency was his biggest issue this past season. He started off scoring in double figures the first 6 games, then was up and down the rest of the way. His jumper was off in many of our losses, but hopefully his newfound dribble drive will bring him the balance he needs to be a consistent scorer.

Projection - Seth continues to get some minutes at point, particularly late in games because you want the ball in his hands because of his FT %. His 3-point shot recovers to about 41% and his minutes remain steady. I think he'll score about 15 points a game, but be an average defender.

Mason Plumlee - Mason averaged 11 and 9 in 28 minutes and was named 3rd team All-ACC. His scoring and rebounding jumped from 7.2 and 8.4. He played pretty well against some elite big men - Thomas Robinson, Jared Sullinger - then poorly against others - Tyler Zeller, Reggie Johnson.

Mason's turnovers are my biggest concern. He seems to want to make more difficult plays than he should, and turns the ball over when he posts up too far out or tries to dribble in traffic.

Projection - Mason will be a double-double machine, averaging 14 and 12. He will be a focal point of the offense and will be efficient, although the turnovers and forced shots will be somewhat frustrating. He will be 1st team All-ACC and All-Defense, but never consistently dominant.

Andre Dawkins - Andre increased his scoring and minutes by 0.3 and 1.4, but his FG% fell from .481 to .400 and his 3-point % fell from .427 to .392.

He scored 15+ six times on the year. He scored 8 points in the final 6 games of the season. Dukes was 3-3 over that stretch.In Duke's 7 losses this past season, Andre shot 5-21 from 3 and 8-31 overall. In our big wins - (KU in Maui, @Unc, @Fsu) he was a combined 10-19 from 3. Yes, we need to figure this puzzle out if we have hopes of being a top 5 team. Simply put, Andre has to work harder on defense and work hard to come off screens, and do it early in the game.

Projection - I think Andre's shooting % recovers and he discovers a slightly better mid-range game that he gets from utilizing the pump fake. I think his minutes and effort level will remain up and down though, but there's less downside next year because his FG% goes back up. 10 points a game in a slightly expanded game. Andre could have a big year if we run more, because he could get spot up 3s before the D gets set.

Ryan Kelly - Ryan increased his scoring from 6.6 to 11.8 in 5 more minutes per game. His 3-point % increased from 0.319 to.408 but his 2-point FG% dropped from .635 to .469. His rebounding rate was 11.5% compared to Mason's 17.8% and Miles' 19.4%.

Ryan scored in double figures 18 times last year, but he averaged 5 points in 5 losses (injured the final two losses). He seemed more willing to put the ball on the floor later in the year. Consistency and lack of rebounding were the two big concerns for Ryan this past season.

Projection - I think Ryan's scoring takes another leap with him having a great shooting season. He wont just be shooting corner 3s this year, but will also get jumpers and to the foul line off the dribble. I think he will average about 15 points and his rebounding deficiencies will be mitigated by having Murphy play some at the 3.

As a group, these four guys averaged 106.9 minutes and 44.5 points per game. The minutes wont change much, but I project the scoring to go up about 10 points a game. Austin's 402 field goal attempts this past season will mostly get taken by Murphy and Sulaimon, but the four seniors are likely to score more on better consistency and higher shooting %.

The big question remains - who will be the team's emotional leader? My vote for that is Quinn Cook rather than one of the seniors.

miramar
04-12-2012, 03:44 PM
That's actually a pretty good number of data points, so that gives us something to look forward to.

Of the previous six teams that you mention, five went to the Final Four. The only exception was 2006, a team that had two extremely productive seniors (JJ, Shelden) and two that regressed and lost their shooting touch as the season wore on (Dockery, Lee). Sadly, both were shut out in their final game in a Duke uniform, the same thing that happened to Shavlik the previous season.

Needless to say, this year's junior class also seemed to split in two towards the end of the season when it comes to individual productivity (Mason/Ryan and Seth/Andre), but that doesn't mean that history will repeat itself. If the group is productive throughout the year, Duke will do very well.

Li_Duke
04-12-2012, 04:13 PM
Looking at the trends in their careers, I thought it might be cool to see what people expect out of the four seniors statistically. Here's my take -

Seth Curry - Seth averaged 13.2 in 30 minutes last season and was named 3rd team All-ACC. His scoring jumped from 9 to 13 and his field goal attempts jumped from 6.5 to 9.9. Seth endured a shooting slump late in the year though, reflected in his drop from .435 to .383 on 3-s. Some of that may been because he was no longer playing alongside Kyle and Nolan though. He developed a pretty good floater in the lane as he became more confident in driving to the hole later in the year.

Seth's consistency was his biggest issue this past season. He started off scoring in double figures the first 6 games, then was up and down the rest of the way. His jumper was off in many of our losses, but hopefully his newfound dribble drive will bring him the balance he needs to be a consistent scorer.

Projection - Seth continues to get some minutes at point, particularly late in games because you want the ball in his hands because of his FT %. His 3-point shot recovers to about 41% and his minutes remain steady. I think he'll score about 15 points a game, but be an average defender.

Mason Plumlee - Mason averaged 11 and 9 in 28 minutes and was named 3rd team All-ACC. His scoring and rebounding jumped from 7.2 and 8.4. He played pretty well against some elite big men - Thomas Robinson, Jared Sullinger - then poorly against others - Tyler Zeller, Reggie Johnson.

Mason's turnovers are my biggest concern. He seems to want to make more difficult plays than he should, and turns the ball over when he posts up too far out or tries to dribble in traffic.

Projection - Mason will be a double-double machine, averaging 14 and 12. He will be a focal point of the offense and will be efficient, although the turnovers and forced shots will be somewhat frustrating. He will be 1st team All-ACC and All-Defense, but never consistently dominant.

Andre Dawkins - Andre increased his scoring and minutes by 0.3 and 1.4, but his FG% fell from .481 to .400 and his 3-point % fell from .427 to .392.

He scored 15+ six times on the year. He scored 8 points in the final 6 games of the season. Dukes was 3-3 over that stretch.In Duke's 7 losses this past season, Andre shot 5-21 from 3 and 8-31 overall. In our big wins - (KU in Maui, @Unc, @Fsu) he was a combined 10-19 from 3. Yes, we need to figure this puzzle out if we have hopes of being a top 5 team. Simply put, Andre has to work harder on defense and work hard to come off screens, and do it early in the game.

Projection - I think Andre's shooting % recovers and he discovers a slightly better mid-range game that he gets from utilizing the pump fake. I think his minutes and effort level will remain up and down though, but there's less downside next year because his FG% goes back up. 10 points a game in a slightly expanded game. Andre could have a big year if we run more, because he could get spot up 3s before the D gets set.

Ryan Kelly - Ryan increased his scoring from 6.6 to 11.8 in 5 more minutes per game. His 3-point % increased from 0.319 to.408 but his 2-point FG% dropped from .635 to .469. His rebounding rate was 11.5% compared to Mason's 17.8% and Miles' 19.4%.

Ryan scored in double figures 18 times last year, but he averaged 5 points in 5 losses (injured the final two losses). He seemed more willing to put the ball on the floor later in the year. Consistency and lack of rebounding were the two big concerns for Ryan this past season.

Projection - I think Ryan's scoring takes another leap with him having a great shooting season. He wont just be shooting corner 3s this year, but will also get jumpers and to the foul line off the dribble. I think he will average about 15 points and his rebounding deficiencies will be mitigated by having Murphy play some at the 3.

As a group, these four guys averaged 106.9 minutes and 44.5 points per game. The minutes wont change much, but I project the scoring to go up about 10 points a game. Austin's 402 field goal attempts this past season will mostly get taken by Murphy and Sulaimon, but the four seniors are likely to score more on better consistency and higher shooting %.

The big question remains - who will be the team's emotional leader? My vote for that is Quinn Cook rather than one of the seniors.


I'd agree with most of this.

Mason's projected rebounds/game appear a bit high, but considering he doesn't have Miles backing him up anymore, I think he'll play more than the 28 min/game he played this year. That and a small improvement in rebounding rate would certainly put Mason in the 12 rebounds per game level.

My concerns with Kelly is how he'll bounce back from his injury and considering his injury, how much time he'll have in the off-season to improve his game. I would really like to see Hairston (hopefully with more good weight/less frenetic playing style) and Murphy (hopefully stronger and much improved from what little we saw early last year - when some considered him a threat to win the starting SF spot) be ready to give us good minutes at the PF spot early next year just in case Kelly isn't yet up to speed.

BD80
04-12-2012, 04:32 PM
Six senior-laden teams, and only one championship? Ho-hum.

Of course I type with tongue firmly in cheek.

While an interesting factoid, it does raise a key issue. A senior-laden team is usually blessed with "leadership."

Last year's team was severely lacking in leadership, and frankly, I don't see any of our four seniors as leaders. None are vocal, none have shown a desire for the ball in clutch situations, and none have demonstrated the ability to come up with a big defensive play in key situations.

The list of 20 players on the six teams Kedsey cites includes: 4 guys who later coached, one who became an NBA GM, and a future NBA owner. Several were considered defensive stoppers, with at least one defensive player of the year. Who will be surprised when Scheyer returns to the bench as a coach.

Fortunately, Mason chose to return to continue his studies - in leadership - from the best teacher in the world. There is a reason that CEO's from around the world come to learn from Coach K. The mystery is the failure of leadership last year.

My guess is that the natural leader of the team should have been Austin as the best player on the team and the son of NBA hall-of-fame-to-be coach/player Doc Rivers. That this failed explains why Tyler Thornton was inserted into the line-up.

I am confident that leadership will be a huge issue this year (duh, it is every year). Having seniors is a great plus, but I am interested in seeing who steps up as a leader. My guess is Mason, he has the emotion, and the ability to make big defensive plays.

Kedsy
04-12-2012, 05:27 PM
Last year's team was severely lacking in leadership, and frankly, I don't see any of our four seniors as leaders. None are vocal, none have shown a desire for the ball in clutch situations, and none have demonstrated the ability to come up with a big defensive play in key situations.

Well, Andre has hit a lot of key shots, including at the end of games (Belmont and Kansas, for example, this past season). And I think the other three all want the ball in clutch situations, although they've had varying success when they get it.

I agree that none of our seniors have in the past shown too much in the way of leadership qualities. But I am hopeful that one or more of them will in 2012-13. They all seem to have somewhat laid back personalities, so it may not come naturally to them, but when it's your last go-round, I think some people realize it's now or never and force themselves to do it. I hope and believe that at least one or two of our seniors will take the mantle.

Indoor66
04-12-2012, 06:50 PM
Leadership skills can be improved and honed, but leaders are born. It is a rare bird who becomes a leader without showing those traits throughout life. Most of those rare birds have their leadership characteristics revealed through their actions and reactions to difficult, stressful situations.

Maybe we didn't have leaders on the team or maybe the situations did not arise that revealed the leaders. Who knows?

davekay1971
04-12-2012, 07:06 PM
Well, Andre has hit a lot of key shots, including at the end of games (Belmont and Kansas, for example, this past season). And I think the other three all want the ball in clutch situations, although they've had varying success when they get it.

I agree that none of our seniors have in the past shown too much in the way of leadership qualities. But I am hopeful that one or more of them will in 2012-13. They all seem to have somewhat laid back personalities, so it may not come naturally to them, but when it's your last go-round, I think some people realize it's now or never and force themselves to do it. I hope and believe that at least one or two of our seniors will take the mantle.

Grant Hill didn't show much leadership until his senior year. He was content to defer that role to Laettner and then Hurley.

Of course, the current group of seniors didn't have a truly dominant leader in front of them in the 2011-12 season, but that doesn't mean they aren't still potential leaders. Nor does it mean that, as a group, they won't demonstrate leadership skills. At Duke there is a strong tendency for seniority to dictate leadership, if not minutes. Freshmen, sophomores, even juniors tend to defer to the seniors on the roster, and those guys may not show their leadership skills until they, themselves are seniors (see: Battier, Shane; Hill, Grant; Redick, JJ).

The 2011-2012 Blue Devils had the odd situation of 1 senior who was basically the sub at his position, most other players on the team having been role players, and a dominant freshman star. I can't remember a previous team with that particular mix.

In 2012-13 we're looking at 3 senior starters, all of whom are basically returning starters, plus one senior with lots of game experience coming off the bench. Even though, obviously, those guys were all on the team last season, it's still a completely different situation.

Leadership doesn't just happen, but the situation frequently brings out leadership in people. Curry, Dawkins, Mason, and Kelly will no longer have anyone "above" them to defer to. Nor will they have another season to look forward to. It's a potentially potent mix of experience, urgency, expectation, and, above all, a coach who really knows leadership guiding them in the process of taking on that role.

MarkD83
04-12-2012, 07:17 PM
A few posts back it was mentioned that the 2006 team was the one team with senior leaders that under-acheived. Keep in mind that on that team the talent difference between JJ, Shelden and the rest of the team was huge. Therefore, the team often sat around and watched the two of them play and other teams focussed on stopping JJ and Shelden which was their undoing.

I like the talent level that Austin brought to this team but I often wonder if the perceived talent gap between Austin and the rest of the team was their undoing. I say perceived because Austin had great skills but often times did not play within the team concept. This was good (UNC at CH where he took control) but not so good (Lehigh where the defense was obviously set to stop him).

My excitement about next year and the four seniors is they will play within the team concept that Coach K wants. If they can just up their individual performances and play their roles, they will be hard to defend. On the other hand I hope that Alex, Mike G and Rasheed can add some defense pressure on the wing that was missing from last years team.

MCFinARL
04-13-2012, 09:13 AM
Six senior-laden teams, and only one championship? Ho-hum.

Of course I type with tongue firmly in cheek.

While an interesting factoid, it does raise a key issue. A senior-laden team is usually blessed with "leadership."

Last year's team was severely lacking in leadership, and frankly, I don't see any of our four seniors as leaders. None are vocal, none have shown a desire for the ball in clutch situations, and none have demonstrated the ability to come up with a big defensive play in key situations.

The list of 20 players on the six teams Kedsey cites includes: 4 guys who later coached, one who became an NBA GM, and a future NBA owner. Several were considered defensive stoppers, with at least one defensive player of the year. Who will be surprised when Scheyer returns to the bench as a coach.

Fortunately, Mason chose to return to continue his studies - in leadership - from the best teacher in the world. There is a reason that CEO's from around the world come to learn from Coach K. The mystery is the failure of leadership last year.

My guess is that the natural leader of the team should have been Austin as the best player on the team and the son of NBA hall-of-fame-to-be coach/player Doc Rivers. That this failed explains why Tyler Thornton was inserted into the line-up.

I am confident that leadership will be a huge issue this year (duh, it is every year). Having seniors is a great plus, but I am interested in seeing who steps up as a leader. My guess is Mason, he has the emotion, and the ability to make big defensive plays.


Leadership skills can be improved and honed, but leaders are born. It is a rare bird who becomes a leader without showing those traits throughout life. Most of those rare birds have their leadership characteristics revealed through their actions and reactions to difficult, stressful situations.

Maybe we didn't have leaders on the team or maybe the situations did not arise that revealed the leaders. Who knows?

I agree that Mason is most likely to emerge as the main leader of this team. In his interview after deciding to come back he said that is his plan, and it seems honing his leadership skills is one of the key areas he wants to work on before moving to the next level.

I also agree that Austin was sort of the "leader apparent" on last year's team, but it didn't really work out. I'm not sure that is really Austin's fault, at least from a leadership standpoint. If Indoor66 is right that leaders are born (more on that later), Austin would seem to have a lot of the necessary traits--confidence, a pretty good (if not completely developed) sense of his own strengths and limitations, both the desire and the sangfroid to make the big play at the crucial time.

But I'm not sure the "born" leadership characteristics are the only piece of the puzzle. The most successful team leaders are going to know not only their own strengths and weaknesses, but those of their teammates. They are going to have a good sense of how to get the best out of everyone on the team, what each person's habits and patterns are, when to get on them and when to back off. In a basketball context, they are going to be able to use this information to anticipate what people will do on the court--to know when to look for someone in his favorite shooting spot and get him the ball, when to expect the lob from the ballhandler, when to look to back up someone who is likely to go for a steal on defense. On the very best teams, everyone is doing this to some extent, but the key leader or leaders need to set the example.

For pretty obvious reasons, it's very hard for a freshman to excel at this part of leadership, except, perhaps, in the point guard position where focusing on teammates is such an important part of the role, because so much learning is involved. Some people may be more naturally suited to this than others, and obviously court vision (which is part of this) seems to be a skill that some possess from the get go and others never, but I think big chunks of knowing and working with your teammates depend on learning--willingness to shift your focus and expend the effort, during play and while watching film, to understand your teammates as players. This part of it didn't come instinctively to Austin the way it perhaps does to someone like Kyrie Irving or Kendall Marshall (again, point guards); he might have grown into it with another year.

As for Mason, he seems to want to be the leader on this team, and at least at times he has shown a lot of the characteristics people on this thread have been identifying with leadership--intensity, making the big play, etc. Can he learn the rest, or enough of it? I think, and hope, he can. There is a lot riding on it, for Mason and for Duke, and maybe not just next year. Now that people (including, apparently, his high school coach) are promoting the "Duke hasn't used Mason Plumlee correctly" meme, a big senior year for Mason could be an eloquent answer to some of the Duke program's most vocal critics.

A good place to start will be with Quinn Cook (and with Tyler Thornton as well; I'm hopeful Cook will be ready to take on more responsibility this year, but even if that happens I assume we will still see a fair amount of Thornton). If the offense is to run more through Mason this year, he and the point guards need to know each other's moves and habits backwards and forwards; hopefully they will all be working on that, as well as their individual games, over the summer. And both point guards have the potential to be more vocal leaders on the floor, pairing with a perhaps less vocal, lead-by-example style from Mason (not unlike the Nolan-Kyle leadership model).

Then hopefully the other seniors step in to make a full-on commitment to playing the best basketball they can in their last chance, being leaders as a group in effort, desire, and focus on team.

If all this happens, I'm very excited about what this group might be able to accomplish next year. If it doesn't, it could be another year like this one--with some great moments but some very disappointing ones as well. We'll see.

oldnavy
04-13-2012, 09:32 AM
From my perspective the key to next year will be Ryan Kelly. If he can take that "next step" and become more aggressive and strong with the ball, I believe we will have a very good year. I believe that he can become the leader of the team as well.

The reason I think he is the key, is because he will create space for Mason to operate as well as the guards to drive. As we all know getting into the paint is KEY! At the end of this past year we spent a lot of time passing and dribbling around the perimeter. We need to open up the lane by pulling the bigs out. If Kelly can do this AND if he can develop the ability to put the ball on the floor to drive at times, I think our whole offense takes a step up and EVERYONE improves....more open jumpers for Andre and Seth, more room for MG and AM to operate, etc....

It was noticable how our offense stagnated when Kelly got injured at the end of the year. We will need a healthy and stronger Ryan Kelly to make some noise late into March and April next year IMO...

MCFinARL
04-13-2012, 09:41 AM
From my perspective the key to next year will be Ryan Kelly. If he can take that "next step" and become more aggressive and strong with the ball, I believe we will have a very good year. I believe that he can become the leader of the team as well.

The reason I think he is the key, is because he will create space for Mason to operate as well as the guards to drive. As we all know getting into the paint is KEY! At the end of this past year we spent a lot of time passing and dribbling around the perimeter. We need to open up the lane by pulling the bigs out. If Kelly can do this AND if he can develop the ability to put the ball on the floor to drive at times, I think our whole offense takes a step up and EVERYONE improves....more open jumpers for Andre and Seth, more room for MG and AM to operate, etc....

It was noticable how our offense stagnated when Kelly got injured at the end of the year. We will need a healthy and stronger Ryan Kelly to make some noise late into March and April next year IMO...

I definitely agree with this--and I didn't mean to discount the importance of Kelly in my earlier post. Everyone on the floor is going to be important, and good communication among, and good play by, the seniors will be especially important. I just think the first step to maximizing Mason's effectiveness on offense is good communication between him and the point guards--but a healthy and effective Ryan is a very important second step, as well as an offensive contribution in his own right.

loldevilz
04-13-2012, 10:00 AM
From my perspective the key to next year will be Ryan Kelly. If he can take that "next step" and become more aggressive and strong with the ball, I believe we will have a very good year. I believe that he can become the leader of the team as well.

The reason I think he is the key, is because he will create space for Mason to operate as well as the guards to drive. As we all know getting into the paint is KEY! At the end of this past year we spent a lot of time passing and dribbling around the perimeter. We need to open up the lane by pulling the bigs out. If Kelly can do this AND if he can develop the ability to put the ball on the floor to drive at times, I think our whole offense takes a step up and EVERYONE improves....more open jumpers for Andre and Seth, more room for MG and AM to operate, etc....

It was noticable how our offense stagnated when Kelly got injured at the end of the year. We will need a healthy and stronger Ryan Kelly to make some noise late into March and April next year IMO...

I disagree. Quinn Cook at point guard is going to be the key. Kelly and Mason will be at least good hopefully great. Duke will have either as bad of point guard play as we've had in years in Thornton or nearly elite point guard play if Cook plays to his potential. I'm definitely hoping for the later.

The other key IMO will be Dawkins. The guy simply has to get better. He needs to be the kind of unstoppable force that he is capable of being. Anyone with his shooting ability and athletiicism should be dominant at this level.

flyingdutchdevil
04-13-2012, 10:58 AM
I disagree. Quinn Cook at point guard is going to be the key. Kelly and Mason will be at least good hopefully great. Duke will have either as bad of point guard play as we've had in years in Thornton or nearly elite point guard play if Cook plays to his potential. I'm definitely hoping for the later.

The other key IMO will be Dawkins. The guy simply has to get better. He needs to be the kind of unstoppable force that he is capable of being. Anyone with his shooting ability and athletiicism should be dominant at this level.

I agree with both you and oldnavy: it's Cook and Kelly. We know what we're getting from Curry and we know what we're getting from MP2 (hopefully improved Curry and MP2), but I have no idea what to expect from Kelly. Every year, he has improved and transformed his body. He went from Henson's body to Dunleavy's body to McRobert's body. I'm curious to see what body we'll have next year. Also, with Kelly, he is one of two players who can hit the mid-range jump shot. If he can work on that shot more and create better chemistry with MP2, that is a nasty front court.

Cook is also a different maker. I think Kelly's presence can take us to the top of the ACC, but Cook can take us deep into March. His court vision on a team of players who can score will be so clutch. His ability to penetrate, distribute, and be creative is absolutely key for next year's team. If he a) can get 100% healthy and b) work on his D, we have our PG for the next 3 years. I'm not discounting TT at all - I love his leadership and tenacity - but Cook's potential, especially on the offensive end, is significantly higher and I know that Coach K will tap into that this summer.

CDu
04-13-2012, 11:09 AM
I disagree. Quinn Cook at point guard is going to be the key. Kelly and Mason will be at least good hopefully great. Duke will have either as bad of point guard play as we've had in years in Thornton or nearly elite point guard play if Cook plays to his potential. I'm definitely hoping for the later.

The other key IMO will be Dawkins. The guy simply has to get better. He needs to be the kind of unstoppable force that he is capable of being. Anyone with his shooting ability and athletiicism should be dominant at this level.

I think there are any number of players who could be key:

Mason: can he make the jump offensively to being a consistent force on the blocks? He had several really productive offensive games and several clunkers. Can he become a 15-17 ppg, 10-11 rpg presence for us?

Kelly: Can he expand his offensive game beyond being primarily a catch-and-shoot player? Can he become a better rebounder and defender?

Murphy: Just how good is he going to be? Can he become the starter and an impact player at SF? Will he be able to play some at PF if we decide to go more athletic at that position?

Gbinije: Just how good is he going to be? Can he provide significant productive minutes at SF? Can he pair with Murphy as a pair of tall, long, athletic forwards when we go with an athletic lineup?

Dawkins: Is he going to improve his offensive game such that he's not relegated to catch-and-shoot opportunities? Is he going to improve his focus and effort on defense? I suspect he'll be limited to SF minutes as I just don't see him developing the ballhandling skills to play SG. But we'll see.

Sulaimon: How ready is he going to be? Is he good enough to push Curry to PG and Cook/Thornton to the bench? He has the quickness and length to be a very productive SG. He's not ready to be a star, but I think he'll be very important to changing how we do things on the defensive end.

Curry: Can he get better at creating his own shot, as well as creating for others? If he can play PG, the doors open for us to explore playing Sulaimon more at SG. This would make us more dangerous offensively, and would allow us to add potentially our best on-ball defender to the lineup.

Cook: Can he get good enough defensively to warrant running the offense? He's a much more gifted offensive player than Thornton (who largely played because we needed someone to play defense - often at SF - and wasn't really much of a PG) but he isn't going to see a starting spot if he can't cut it defensively.