Ryan Kelly, "The Bridge" That Spanned "The Gap"

[Newton_14]

Since walking out of the Greensboro Coliseum 6 nights ago, taunted, cursed, and heckled by the worst of the worst UNC fans (All 15K+ of them), I have been searching for a word to describe the revelation I experienced. "Cog", "Cornerstone", "Linchpin", etc. 6 days later, having given it much thought, I still did not find the word I was looking for, so I settled on "Bridge". Forgive me if it does not accurately capture what I am ultimately trying to portray with this thread.

On the ride home, having watched the 3rd of 3 Duke games without Ryan Kelly in the lineup in person, it hit me upside the head like a brick, that I had missed something with this team all year long. Silly me. I authored one of the Phase threads, totally missing this key point. Wrote numerous other posts on this team, totally missing this point. Yeah, everyone and their mother knew this team had a problem in trying to replace Kyle Singler at Small Forward, Wing Forward (hey K does not have positions bonehead). Position defined or not, we all knew it was a gap. Which it was. No rocket science there. However, it was not "The Gap". As Mr Sumner so eloquently reminded us earlier tonight in another thread, Duke has won and won big playing 3 guards before. Those teams though, all had very versatile "forwards" to bridge the gap I am speaking of, between the true bigs and the true guards. The bigs on those team had help in the paint on both ends. This year, the Plumlee's had Ryan Kelly and no one else. One guy. Very versatile of course, but not great at guarding small forwards that took him outside like he did big guys on the other end. Still, Ryan was the one guy.

Ironically, earlier in the week preceding the Lehigh game, a good friend of mind at work who is a UNC grad, commented to me, "You know, the Plumlee's take way too much heat. They are not bad players at all. In fact, I view them as good players with Mason being a really good player. They just don't have any help. They are on the floor with 3 shrimps all night". I commented that he was correct, and we had a great discussion regarding the position the Kelly injury had put Duke in.

I love Duke hoops obviously, but watching the guys play without Kelly was downright painful. So disconnected, disjointed, like trying to put together a puzzle without the corner piece. 2 Centers in Mason and Miles, trying to play with very small guards in Seth, Tyler, Austin, Andre and Cook. Foul! You cry! Andre is 6'5 and Austin is 6'5! Yeah, but how tall did they play? Do you see them as Forwards or Guards? Did they play like Forwards or Guards? I think the obvious answer is guards. Neither were great at mixing it up in the paint. Maybe they should be better at that, but that's not really my point here. Not to leave him out, Josh had some shining moments while Ryan was out, he just struggled with his jumper and could not stretch the defense like Kelly. I hope the experience bodes well for Josh down the road. The shame of it, is all of those guys are good players in their own right. Together though, without Kelly, they were dysfunctional.

With Murph RedShirting, and Gbinije needing more time to develop, the only true "forward" this team had was Ryan Kelly. Ryan Kelly was the bridge that glued the Plums and the Guards together, and K did a wonderful job finding a way to take that one forward and make it work. With Ryan Kelly, 26-5, Maui champs, 2nd in the ACC, 8-0 on the ACC Road, with wins over Michigan, Kansas, Mich St, UNC, FSU, all away from the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor. Without Ryan Kelly: 1-2 with a loss to some school named Lehigh.
Time and time again, Mason and Miles (and Kelly during the season) would battle in the paint with other bigs, and in comes flying an opponents 6-7/6-8 forward to steal a rebound, followup dunk, block a shot, etc. Once Kelly went down, and it was just Miles and Mason, the bridge was gone. Everything down to a simple pass became more difficult to execute. Defenses packed it in against Mason, cut off driving lanes for Austin and Seth, and hedged hard on the perimeter with the threat of pick and pop gone. Ryan was just critical to this team. Way more critical than I realized most of the season.

This is ending up longer than I had intended, but allow me just a few more thoughts. Imagine this team with Mason/Miles at the 5, Kelly/Tony Lang at the 4, Brian Davis/Andre at the 3, and everything else the same. Think Mason isn't a beast with that kind of help? How good is that team defensively and offensively?


At the end of the day, "bridge" is probably the wrong word. Feel free to pick a better one. I just know now that Kelly was key. Losing him derailed the season. I don't know how far Duke would have went in either tourney if Kelly never goes down, I just know now, without him, they were doomed to go home early.

[CDu]

Since walking out of the Greensboro Coliseum 6 nights ago, taunted, cursed, and heckled by the worst of the worst UNC fans (All 15K+ of them), I have been searching for a word to describe the revelation I experienced. "Cog", "Cornerstone", "Linchpin", etc. 6 days later, having given it much thought, I still did not find the word I was looking for, so I settled on "Bridge". Forgive me if it does not accurately capture what I am ultimately trying to portray with this thread.

On the ride home, having watched the 3rd of 3 Duke games without Ryan Kelly in the lineup in person, it hit me upside the head like a brick, that I had missed something with this team all year long. Silly me. I authored one of the Phase threads, totally missing this key point. Wrote numerous other posts on this team, totally missing this point. Yeah, everyone and their mother knew this team had a problem in trying to replace Kyle Singler at Small Forward, Wing Forward (hey K does not have positions bonehead). Position defined or not, we all knew it was a gap. Which it was. No rocket science there. However, it was not "The Gap". As Mr Sumner so eloquently reminded us earlier tonight in another thread, Duke has won and won big playing 3 guards before. Those teams though, all had very versatile "forwards" to bridge the gap I am speaking of, between the true bigs and the true guards. The bigs on those team had help in the paint on both ends. This year, the Plumlee's had Ryan Kelly and no one else. One guy. Very versatile of course, but not great at guarding small forwards that took him outside like he did big guys on the other end. Still, Ryan was the one guy.

Ironically, earlier in the week preceding the Lehigh game, a good friend of mind at work who is a UNC grad, commented to me, "You know, the Plumlee's take way too much heat. They are not bad players at all. In fact, I view them as good players with Mason being a really good player. They just don't have any help. They are on the floor with 3 shrimps all night". I commented that he was correct, and we had a great discussion regarding the position the Kelly injury had put Duke in.

I love Duke hoops obviously, but watching the guys play without Kelly was downright painful. So disconnected, disjointed, like trying to put together a puzzle without the corner piece. 2 Centers in Mason and Miles, trying to play with very small guards in Seth, Tyler, Austin, Andre and Cook. Foul! You cry! Andre is 6'5 and Austin is 6'5! Yeah, but how tall did they play? Do you see them as Forwards or Guards? Did they play like Forwards or Guards? I think the obvious answer is guards. Neither were great at mixing it up in the paint. Maybe they should be better at that, but that's not really my point here. Not to leave him out, Josh had some shining moments while Ryan was out, he just struggled with his jumper and could not stretch the defense like Kelly. I hope the experience bodes well for Josh down the road. The shame of it, is all of those guys are good players in their own right. Together though, without Kelly, they were dysfunctional.

With Murph RedShirting, and Gbinije needing more time to develop, the only true "forward" this team had was Ryan Kelly. Ryan Kelly was the bridge that glued the Plums and the Guards together, and K did a wonderful job finding a way to take that one forward and make it work. With Ryan Kelly, 26-5, Maui champs, 2nd in the ACC, 8-0 on the ACC Road, with wins over Michigan, Kansas, Mich St, UNC, FSU, all away from the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor. Without Ryan Kelly: 1-2 with a loss to some school named Lehigh.
Time and time again, Mason and Miles (and Kelly during the season) would battle in the paint with other bigs, and in comes flying an opponents 6-7/6-8 forward to steal a rebound, followup dunk, block a shot, etc. Once Kelly went down, and it was just Miles and Mason, the bridge was gone. Everything down to a simple pass became more difficult to execute. Defenses packed it in against Mason, cut off driving lanes for Austin and Seth, and hedged hard on the perimeter with the threat of pick and pop gone. Ryan was just critical to this team. Way more critical than I realized most of the season.

This is ending up longer than I had intended, but allow me just a few more thoughts. Imagine this team with Mason/Miles at the 5, Kelly/Tony Lang at the 4, Brian Davis/Andre at the 3, and everything else the same. Think Mason isn't a beast with that kind of help? How good is that team defensively and offensively?


At the end of the day, "bridge" is probably the wrong word. Feel free to pick a better one. I just know now that Kelly was key. Losing him derailed the season. I don't know how far Duke would have went in either tourney if Kelly never goes down, I just know now, without him, they were doomed to go home early.

We certainly missed Kelly, but I am not sure I follow your logic. There was never a situation in which both Plumlees battled for the boards and then Kelly helped out. He wasn't a bridge, because he was one of the bigs.
I do think you are onto something with your lineup. But not because of Kelly providing a bridge. It is because the two other guys you mention (Lang and Davis) are exactly the type of tall athletic forwards we lacked.

[Newton_14]

We certainly missed Kelly, but I am not sure I follow your logic. There was never a situation in which both Plumlees battled for the boards and then Kelly helped out. He wasn't a bridge, because he was one of the bigs.
I do think you are onto something with your lineup. But not because of Kelly providing a bridge. It is because the two other guys you mention (Lang and Davis) are exactly the type of tall athletic forwards we lacked.

Sorry, did not mean to imply Kelly was ever on the floor with the Plums at the same time. I see now one part kind of read that way. My bad there.

My overally point is Kelly was the guy that helped the guards function with the true bigs (Mason and Miles). Without Kelly there was no other forward that could help whether Mason or Miles were on the floor together or just one of them were in there. We made that work during the season when Kelly rested, but once he was not available at all, it did not work at all.

Does that make better sense?

[hq2]

Sorry, did not mean to imply Kelly was ever on the floor with the Plums at the same time. I see now one part kind of read that way. My bad there.

My overally point is Kelly was the guy that helped the guards function with the true bigs (Mason and Miles). Without Kelly there was no other forward that could help whether Mason or Miles were on the floor together or just one of them were in there. We made that work during the season when Kelly rested, but once he was not available at all, it did not work at all.

Does that make better sense?

A little more. Overall, the way the team played without him clearly showed significant problems on offense. Kelly not only spelled the Plumlees, he opened up the offense for the other players too. Ryan being on the floor meant the other team had to send a big out to guard him, which opened up the lane a lot for both the smalls to drive and the Plumlees to maneuver. Without him, the other team knew they could pack it in on the Plumlees, fronting them early, then play right up on our smalls late, knowing they would shoot a three and couldn't deliver the ball to the bigs. Looked a lot like what happened during the disastrous 94-95 season, which had a very similar configuration team.

[Kedsy]

Seems to me, offense is about mismatches. Mason had a great season and is a really good player, but he represented a mismatch for us only against teams with very small interiors. Miles too. Andre could be a mismatch when he got the ball a lot and was hitting shots, but neither of those things were true in the last few games of the year. Seth can be a mismatch, but usually not when being guarded by a taller perimeter defender. Tyler, nope. Quinn, not yet. Austin was often a mismatch for us, but not when two defenders sat on his right hand.

So really, that leaves Ryan. Most PFs can't or won't follow him out to the perimeter, and if they do he has enough ballhandling ability to get by them until he's guarded by a smaller man he can shoot over. Very few, if any, teams we faced this year had the ability to guard Ryan from the outside-in.

Once a mismatch is established, the opposing team needs to either let themselves be hurt by the mismatch, or double-team it, and either of these options turns all our other almost-mismatches into real mismatches, and all of a sudden we have a top-five offense. Without that initial advantage, we were fairly easy to defend. I think that's what happened in our last three games.

[weezie]

Does that make better sense?

Yes Newton...you're making me get kind of teary eyed. :(

[Newton_14]

A little more. Overall, the way the team played without him clearly showed significant problems on offense. Kelly not only spelled the Plumlees, he opened up the offense for the other players too. Ryan being on the floor meant the other team had to send a big out to guard him, which opened up the lane a lot for both the smalls to drive and the Plumlees to maneuver. Without him, the other team knew they could pack it in on the Plumlees, fronting them early, then play right up on our smalls late, knowing they would shoot a three and couldn't deliver the ball to the bigs. Looked a lot like what happened during the disastrous 94-95 season, which had a very similar configuration team.


Seems to me, offense is about mismatches. Mason had a great season and is a really good player, but he represented a mismatch for us only against teams with very small interiors. Miles too. Andre could be a mismatch when he got the ball a lot and was hitting shots, but neither of those things were true in the last few games of the year. Seth can be a mismatch, but usually not when being guarded by a taller perimeter defender. Tyler, nope. Quinn, not yet. Austin was often a mismatch for us, but not when two defenders sat on his right hand.

So really, that leaves Ryan. Most PFs can't or won't follow him out to the perimeter, and if they do he has enough ballhandling ability to get by them until he's guarded by a smaller man he can shoot over. Very few, if any, teams we faced this year had the ability to guard Ryan from the outside-in.

Once a mismatch is established, the opposing team needs to either let themselves be hurt by the mismatch, or double-team it, and either of these options turns all our other almost-mismatches into real mismatches, and all of a sudden we have a top-five offense. Without that initial advantage, we were fairly easy to defend. I think that's what happened in our last three games.

Agree with both of you. I am still amazed we made it work during the regular season during the times that Ryan rested and both Plumlee's were on the floor. I even thought for awhile early on, that we need both Plums on the floor to battle in the paint. It only worked then because teams could not change their overall approach based on when Ryan was in and when he was out. Also, my theory on having both Plumlee's in based on success last season was flawed, because last season we had Kyle on the floor with them. Huge difference. This year, neither Andre nor Austin were able to give us any "forward" like abilities so it created that void. Having Ryan in with one Plum was the only way to have true balance, allowing both offense and defense to function. And I absolutely believe it hurt us just as much on defense as it did on offense. Even though our defense did improve towards the end, it was still not great.

Not having a true small forward hurt as we all said it would. Not having any other true forwards beyond Ryan and a still young and developing Josh was just a very fragile deal. It stinks because few will ever give the appropriate respect to the Kelly injury when judging how this season ended. UNC can lament their injuries all they want, but this is two years in a row where injuries to a key Duke player has seriously impacted the outcome of the season.

[Wander]

In two of the final three games of the regular season, with a healthy Kelly, we got blown out of the water by UNC at home and got taken to overtime by a 4-12 ACC team at home. Of course any team losing a starter to injury hurts, but that isn't the central storyline of the end of Duke's season.

[greybeard]

Ryan did many things for this team, a few only he could perform. They were important. However, there was only one guy on this team that was indespensible. Mason Plumlee. Without Mason, I'm sure Duke would have won some games but not many.

[CDu]

In two of the final three games of the regular season, with a healthy Kelly, we got blown out of the water by UNC at home and got taken to overtime by a 4-12 ACC team at home. Of course any team losing a starter to injury hurts, but that isn't the central storyline of the end of Duke's season.

This is a very salient point. Kelly was absolutely a very valuable part of this team, and missing him for the Tournaments most definitely hurt us. But people who say he was the reason we lost to FSU and Lehigh are overlooking the fact that we barely beat VT at home, we let Wake make it a really close game down the stretch, and we got walloped at home by UNC, all with Kelly in the lineup.


Ryan did many things for this team, a few only he could perform. They were important. However, there was only one guy on this team that was indespensible. Mason Plumlee. Without Mason, I'm sure Duke would have won some games but not many.

I agree that Mason was indispensable. But I'd say that he, Kelly, Rivers, and Dawkins were the real keys. Rivers and Mason were the guys that held it all together. Kelly and Dawkins were the barometers for how good we could be. We had to have Rivers and Mason to win. Kelly and Dawkins (when hot) were the ones that pushed us over the top.

Down the stretch (during the six game run I mentioned above) Dawkins disappeared. Not coincidentally we struggled.

[hq2]

This is a very salient point. Kelly was absolutely a very valuable part of this team, and missing him for the Tournaments most definitely hurt us. But people who say he was the reason we lost to FSU and Lehigh are overlooking the fact that we barely beat VT at home, we let Wake make it a really close game down the stretch, and we got walloped at home by UNC, all with Kelly in the lineup.

Completely true. I don't think RK would have gotten us too much further than we did. The likely outcomes were they would have
(probably) beaten FSU, and gotten by Lehigh. Overall, the way the team was playing, I don't think they would have gotten much
further, but it might have spared us the ignominy of a first round exit.

[BleedsP287]

We just weren't hitting shots and weren't playing very good D. Didn't play great defense all season. I don't put any of that on Ryan. For some reason we weren't playing very inspired ball, and our offense sputtered, for some reason this team wasn't as good as past teams at creating its own offense, and K isn't one to set every play. But I'm not a big believer in the Ryan theory.

[CDu]

We just weren't hitting shots and weren't playing very good D. Didn't play great defense all season. I don't put any of that on Ryan. For some reason we weren't playing very inspired ball, and our offense sputtered, for some reason this team wasn't as good as past teams at creating its own offense, and K isn't one to set every play. But I'm not a big believer in the Ryan theory.

Me either. We seemed to get a lot of the same shots that we did before Kelly went down. They just didn't go in. I think the disappearance of Dawkins down the stretch had as much to do with our struggles as anything.

[MIKESJ73]

When Ryan scored over 10 points in a game Duke was 16-0.

Ryans shooting percentages were 52% FG and 47% from three in those 16 games.

In the games he didn't play or scored less than 10 we struggled with a record of 11-7.

Ryans shooting percentages in those 18 games were 32% FG and 32% from three.

In the five losses that Ryan played in he only shot the 26% FG and 29% from three.

When he played well Duke won.

[CDu]

When Ryan scored over 10 points in a game Duke was 16-0.

Ryans shooting percentages were 52% FG and 47% from three in those 16 games.

In the games he didn't play or scored less than 10 we struggled with a record of 11-7.

Ryans shooting percentages in those 18 games were 32% FG and 32% from three.

In the five losses that Ryan played in he only shot the 26% FG and 29% from three.

When he played well Duke won.

I think you can do a very similar analysis with Dawkins.

Basically, we had two guys that were the glue (Rivers and Plumlee), and two guys that were the pendulum (Kelly and Dawkins). Curry is somewhere in between.

[Kedsy]

When Ryan scored over 10 points in a game Duke was 16-0.

When Andre scored over 5 points in a game we were 18-1.

When Seth scored over 13 points in a game we were 15-1.

When Quinn Cook scored over 8 points in a game we were 6-0.

So maybe the answer is when we had any perimeter threat outside of Austin Rivers we won.

Or possibly when a team goes 27-7 (or 26-5, as we were in games Ryan played), it's easier to cherrypick results like this (for example, I notice Ryan scored 10 in the first FSU loss and 8 in the Miami loss).

[CDu]

When Andre scored over 5 points in a game we were 18-1.

When Seth scored over 13 points in a game we were 15-1.

When Quinn Cook scored over 8 points in a game we were 6-0.

So maybe the answer is when we had any perimeter threat outside of Austin Rivers we won.

Or possibly when a team goes 27-7 (or 26-5, as we were in games Ryan played), it's easier to cherrypick results like this (for example, I notice Ryan scored 10 in the first FSU loss and 8 in the Miami loss).

Ding ding ding! Yup. When we lost this year it was in large part because we couldn't hit perimeter shots. When our shooters were on, we were very tough to beat. Unfortunately, all of our shooters stunk down the stretch. It's what happens when you have a team of shooters without a lot of offensive versatility. This team was REALLY efficient when we shot well and not very efficient when we didn't.

[Saratoga2]

Not having a true small forward hurt as we all said it would. Not having any other true forwards beyond Ryan and a still young and developing Josh was just a very fragile deal. It stinks because few will ever give the appropriate respect to the Kelly injury when judging how this season ended. UNC can lament their injuries all they want, but this is two years in a row where injuries to a key Duke player has seriously impacted the outcome of the season.

We did have a true small forward in Alex, but we chose to red shirt him. Hindsight is typically 20/20, but I still wonder what the case would have been had we given him PT during the season. He would have been available at the end and perhaps he would have provided what we so lacked at the end of the season. Would we have lost a couple more games during the season but gone further in the tournament? We are hopeful that he will be a force next season so maybe he would have been at least useful in this years tournament.

[Wander]

We did have a true small forward in Alex, but we chose to red shirt him. Hindsight is typically 20/20, but I still wonder what the case would have been had we given him PT during the season. He would have been available at the end and perhaps he would have provided what we so lacked at the end of the season. Would we have lost a couple more games during the season but gone further in the tournament? We are hopeful that he will be a force next season so maybe he would have been at least useful in this years tournament.

I don't think there was ever any question, even at day 1, that the team would have been better with Murphy. The decision to redshirt wasn't because we thought he wouldn't be able to meaningfully contribute.

[dcar1985]

I don't think there was ever any question, even at day 1, that the team would have been better with Murphy. The decision to redshirt wasn't because we thought he wouldn't be able to meaningfully contribute.

It wasn't???

[Troublemaker]

While it's prudent to say that losing Kelly was not the ONLY factor (as life is rarely that simple such that one reason explains all), he was certainly a huge factor and imo the biggest reason for Duke's struggles at the end of the season. The coaches have confirmed that Duke couldn't adjust to his loss in both postgame and in-game interviews. It's a very, very strong "theory," and I certainly won't miss seeing Miles and Mason trying to operate together in compacted space. We needed Kelly.

That said, Austin's deterioration (fatigue?) was a huge factor as well. I'm not sure he would've had another good shooting game again this season had Duke advanced.

[Troublemaker]

Also, I hope everyone is noting what Florida is doing. They're in the Elite 8 and possibly will be in the Final Four.

And they're the exact same team as Duke, except they're even smaller on the perimeter and they shoot even more 3s.

I'm not saying I'm a huge fan of Duke's style of play during our 3-pt era (1995-2012), but you can win with any style as long as you have health/luck and get hot at the right time.

[Kedsy]

The other thing about Ryan Kelly going down is he was one of two players on our team whose offensive skills couldn't be replicated. I mean, you never want anybody to get hurt but, as an example if Mason got hurt, Miles might not be as good as Mason on the blocks but he could more or less replicate what Mason did. If Seth went down, Andre could more or less fill his niche. Same for everyone, except Austin and Ryan. So when Ryan went down, we either had to entirely change what we were doing, or suffer.

On defense, you could argue Tyler was the one guy whose skills we couldn't replicate, although it's not nearly so clear cut. Though perhaps that explains why Coach K played him so much, despite his limited offensive skill set.

[CALVET]

Since walking out of the Greensboro Coliseum 6 nights ago, taunted, cursed, and heckled by the worst of the worst UNC fans (All 15K+ of them), I have been searching for a word to describe the revelation I experienced. "Cog", "Cornerstone", "Linchpin", etc. 6 days later, having given it much thought, I still did not find the word I was looking for, so I settled on "Bridge". Forgive me if it does not accurately capture what I am ultimately trying to portray with this thread.

On the ride home, having watched the 3rd of 3 Duke games without Ryan Kelly in the lineup in person, it hit me upside the head like a brick, that I had missed something with this team all year long. Silly me. I authored one of the Phase threads, totally missing this key point. Wrote numerous other posts on this team, totally missing this point. Yeah, everyone and their mother knew this team had a problem in trying to replace Kyle Singler at Small Forward, Wing Forward (hey K does not have positions bonehead). Position defined or not, we all knew it was a gap. Which it was. No rocket science there. However, it was not "The Gap". As Mr Sumner so eloquently reminded us earlier tonight in another thread, Duke has won and won big playing 3 guards before. Those teams though, all had very versatile "forwards" to bridge the gap I am speaking of, between the true bigs and the true guards. The bigs on those team had help in the paint on both ends. This year, the Plumlee's had Ryan Kelly and no one else. One guy. Very versatile of course, but not great at guarding small forwards that took him outside like he did big guys on the other end. Still, Ryan was the one guy.

Ironically, earlier in the week preceding the Lehigh game, a good friend of mind at work who is a UNC grad, commented to me, "You know, the Plumlee's take way too much heat. They are not bad players at all. In fact, I view them as good players with Mason being a really good player. They just don't have any help. They are on the floor with 3 shrimps all night". I commented that he was correct, and we had a great discussion regarding the position the Kelly injury had put Duke in.

I love Duke hoops obviously, but watching the guys play without Kelly was downright painful. So disconnected, disjointed, like trying to put together a puzzle without the corner piece. 2 Centers in Mason and Miles, trying to play with very small guards in Seth, Tyler, Austin, Andre and Cook. Foul! You cry! Andre is 6'5 and Austin is 6'5! Yeah, but how tall did they play? Do you see them as Forwards or Guards? Did they play like Forwards or Guards? I think the obvious answer is guards. Neither were great at mixing it up in the paint. Maybe they should be better at that, but that's not really my point here. Not to leave him out, Josh had some shining moments while Ryan was out, he just struggled with his jumper and could not stretch the defense like Kelly. I hope the experience bodes well for Josh down the road. The shame of it, is all of those guys are good players in their own right. Together though, without Kelly, they were dysfunctional.

With Murph RedShirting, and Gbinije needing more time to develop, the only true "forward" this team had was Ryan Kelly. Ryan Kelly was the bridge that glued the Plums and the Guards together, and K did a wonderful job finding a way to take that one forward and make it work. With Ryan Kelly, 26-5, Maui champs, 2nd in the ACC, 8-0 on the ACC Road, with wins over Michigan, Kansas, Mich St, UNC, FSU, all away from the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor. Without Ryan Kelly: 1-2 with a loss to some school named Lehigh.
Time and time again, Mason and Miles (and Kelly during the season) would battle in the paint with other bigs, and in comes flying an opponents 6-7/6-8 forward to steal a rebound, followup dunk, block a shot, etc. Once Kelly went down, and it was just Miles and Mason, the bridge was gone. Everything down to a simple pass became more difficult to execute. Defenses packed it in against Mason, cut off driving lanes for Austin and Seth, and hedged hard on the perimeter with the threat of pick and pop gone. Ryan was just critical to this team. Way more critical than I realized most of the season.

This is ending up longer than I had intended, but allow me just a few more thoughts. Imagine this team with Mason/Miles at the 5, Kelly/Tony Lang at the 4, Brian Davis/Andre at the 3, and everything else the same. Think Mason isn't a beast with that kind of help? How good is that team defensively and offensively?


At the end of the day, "bridge" is probably the wrong word. Feel free to pick a better one. I just know now that Kelly was key. Losing him derailed the season. I don't know how far Duke would have went in either tourney if Kelly never goes down, I just know now, without him, they were doomed to go home early.

With all due respect to Mr. Sumner, Duke may have won big in the past with a 3-guard alignment but since they have never won the whole shooting match with such I asked the question: Does the difference in size at the small forward and the matchup on defense and rebounding create so small a margin for error that superior 3-point shooting cannot consistently compensate over six straight games in the tourney against different types of teams?

This year we were also small at the 2-guard position as well much of the time. Duke has had incredible marksmen over the last couple of decades and K's philosophy obviously works much of the time because of that. Weighing the attempt to balance team recruiting needs and optimization of available talents, it's hard to argue against Mike's approach to maintain a high level of achievement.

But questions remain because Duke seems to be smaller at the 3 than most of the other power schools like Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, etc over the last decade. Is the competition to sign turnkey big small forwards (who qualify and are good citizens) too fierce and/or does he prefer a ready-made offense with 3-guard line-up rather than try to offensively develop blue collar big small forwards (unless like Kyle they morphed from the 4 or 5 positions). In the interest of fairness, is he just trying to adapt to incumbents or does he believe that a goodshooting two (like Dawkins) is genuinely a better fit at small forward than a bigger player with other advantages.

At the risk of sounding anal, is it a matter of statistics for Mike by making more 3s than opponents and the margin without Ryan was too slim and would a guy like Lance have been a good compliment to Ryan? Is the formula to have at least three long distance marksman always on the floor never sacrificing more than two positions for defensive and/or rebounding priority? Finally, does coach K sacrifice the great team every four years or so in order to have an acceptable good team every year?

[CALVET]

Also, I hope everyone is noting what Florida is doing. They're in the Elite 8 and possibly will be in the Final Four.

And they're the exact same team as Duke, except they're even smaller on the perimeter and they shoot even more 3s.

I'm not saying I'm a huge fan of Duke's style of play during our 3-pt era (1995-2012), but you can win with any style as long as you have health/luck and get hot at the right time.

Florida got beat today but also had 11 losses this season, got hammered by Kentucky twice, and also went on a hot shooting streak in a very easy tourney path thus far mainly because of style matchups with very small teams in Norfolk St. and Marquette. Louisville is not much bigger but will give Kentucky a little tougher game than Florida would've. I would also argue that Brad Beal plays much bigger than 6'3" on defense (ala an oversized Demarcus Nelson) because of his length and high set shoulders where Austin and Andre do not play bigger than their listed size.

[CDu]

Also, I hope everyone is noting what Florida is doing. They're in the Elite 8 and possibly will be in the Final Four.

And they're the exact same team as Duke, except they're even smaller on the perimeter and they shoot even more 3s.

I'm not saying I'm a huge fan of Duke's style of play during our 3-pt era (1995-2012), but you can win with any style as long as you have health/luck and get hot at the right time.

It's also important to note that UF avoided their matchup problems in getting to the Elite 8. In the Round of 64 they faced an overmatched UVa team that was decimated by injury and transfer and as such got into the tourney based on their 2011 performances. In the Round of 32 they faced a #15 seed who surprised the #2 seed Mizzou and wasn't in position to punish UF either. In the Sweet 16 Marquette wasn't the type of team that could punish UF by going small, because Marquette themselves are small. Even in the Elite-8 UF got a fair matchup in that Louisville doesn't really focus their offense inside. So if we get the right matchups we can make an Elite-8 or Final Four. But we aren't the type of team that can match up with anybody like UNC (pre Marshall) or UK or perhaps OSU.

I'll say this though. If we happen to get Zeigler and Oriakhi (not that I'm saying we should expect to get either guy), I think we get right back to being capable of matching up with anybody. They would address two very key holes for next year's team in terms of doing the blue collar stuff and defense.

[Kedsy]

I'll say this though. If we happen to get Zeigler and Oriakhi (not that I'm saying we should expect to get either guy), I think we get right back to being capable of matching up with anybody. They would address two very key holes for next year's team in terms of doing the blue collar stuff and defense.

I agree (and also agree that getting both these guys -- or either of these guys -- should be viewed as a long shot). With Rasheed Sulaimon (who comes with a reputation as a good high school defender), Zeigler and Oriakhi, all of a sudden we'd have a pretty formidable defense.