SCMatt33
03-17-2012, 06:38 PM
2011-12 was a pretty slow year in terms of individual milestones. With no one on the team having been a regular starter for more than one year, it is pretty understandable that not a lot of milestones would be reached. Depending on who comes back next year, that could change is a big way next year. I see 6 major milestones that could be realistically reached by players. Five, yes five, players could pass the 1000 point mark next season. I'm not sure Duke has ever had 5 active 1000 point scorers (If someone want to confirm this true or false, I would greatly appreciate it). The last time they had 4 was in 2009, when Henderson, Scheyer, and Singler all passed the 1000 point mark to join Greg Paulus, who passed the mark at the end of 2008. Having 5 players reach that milestone in the same season would be remarkable. The big caveat is that two of the players are Mason and Austin, either or both of whom could turn pro and not return. If he really wanted to, Seth could graduate and not come back. New recruits or younger players could overtake veterans roles. Injuries also play a role in these things, but you can never plan on them so it's no use worrying about them until they happen. Here's a list of players including how many points they currently have, their scoring average from this season, and the scoring average they would need next year if Duke only played in 32 games (3 game in-season tourney, plus 1st round exits in ACC and NCAA tourney).
Seth Curry: 782 points, 13.2 ppg 2012, 6.8 ppg needed in 2013
Mason Plumlee: 769 points, 11.1 ppg 2012, 7.2 ppg needed in 2013
Andre Dawkins: 752 points, 8.4 ppg in 2012, 7.8 ppg needed in 2013
Ryan Kelly: 653 points, 11.8 ppg in 2012, 10.8 ppg needed in 2013
Austin Rivers: 527 points, 15.5 ppg in 2012, 14.8 ppg needed in 2013
Even with a low number of games, all 5 guys would make 1000 by just repeating their numbers from this year. Seth and Mason would be pretty much shoe-ins barring major injury. They could each significantly drop off from this years numbers and still make it. I have a hard time seeing Ryan or Austin having their scoring drop with no Miles next year and really nowhere to go but up for Austin in terms of efficiency. The only one that I could easily see not making it is Dre. Each of the last two years, his role has diminished from the beginning of the year to the end. If the small forwards develop and Duke goes away from a 3 guard lineup, Dre seems the most likely candidate to see his playing time drop off. He's a pure 2 guard, and if Duke is playing true small forwards and Austin is still here, it will be tough for him to get the same minutes that he has gotten before. He could get squeezed on the other end too, if a guy like Sulaimon earns minutes, or Quinn Cook develops to push Curry and Rivers back to the 2 and 3 spot respectively. Now, on the other hand, Dre has the same opportunity to improve his game as everyone else so this could go the other way, but out of the 5, I see him as the most likely to fall short without any injuries or unforeseen developments.
I mentioned 6 major milestones. 5 are 1000 point scorers. The other is that Mason could potentially be just the 8th player in Duke history to crack the 1000 rebound mark, joining Shelden Williams, Mike Gminski, Christian Laettner, Randy Denton, Mike Lewis, Kyle Singler, and Danny Ferry. While 1000 points is a big deal, this is a much more exclusive club. There are some pretty big names on that list, and it would be quite an accomplishment for Mason to join it. Here's what he would have to do (besides not go to the NBA) to get there. I will again assume only 32 games played next year in terms of average needed.
Mason Plumlee: 725 rebounds, 9.2 rpg in 2012, 8.6 rpg needed in 2013
This isn't a guarantee at all, but he would get there just by keeping up his current numbers. That shouldn't be a problem with Miles gone. I can't see many scenarios in which Mason and Ryan don't become full time starters, so this would be about staying healthy and keeping his production. Pretty cut and dry.
Beside those 6 major numbers, there are a few minor milestones as well. Mason just passed Laettner yesterday for 5th on the all time blocks list, with 147. Next on the list is Cherokee Parks at 230, which would be a stretch at best, but Mason has a decent shot at becoming the 5th 200 block player in Duke history, joining Parks, Shelden Williams, Gminski, and Battier. Mason would also be a shoe-in to become Dukes all time dunks leader, for what that's worth. I remember seeing that he either tied or passed the single season mark yesterday which was 58 by Shelden Williams. If he got 58, that would put him at 128 for his career and the leader is Robert Brickey at 147, making this record not much of a hurdle. The last one is Dre creeping on the the all time 3 point list. He has 167 right now, and to break into the top 10, he would need to get to 210, which would tie Greg Paulus. Getting there has the same roadblocks as him getting to 100 points, but if he can keep his numbers up, he could get as high as 8th, passing Daniel Ewing at 217 and Jeff Capel at 220. 7th is held by Shane Battier at 246, and 79 3 pointers for Dre would be a bit of a stretch. He would need to increase his role on the team for that to happen.
Of coarse, we have to wait to see who is on the team next year, both in terms of who is coming and who is going before we can really dive into predictions on what will happen, but there is certainly going to be more to track than there was this year.
Seth Curry: 782 points, 13.2 ppg 2012, 6.8 ppg needed in 2013
Mason Plumlee: 769 points, 11.1 ppg 2012, 7.2 ppg needed in 2013
Andre Dawkins: 752 points, 8.4 ppg in 2012, 7.8 ppg needed in 2013
Ryan Kelly: 653 points, 11.8 ppg in 2012, 10.8 ppg needed in 2013
Austin Rivers: 527 points, 15.5 ppg in 2012, 14.8 ppg needed in 2013
Even with a low number of games, all 5 guys would make 1000 by just repeating their numbers from this year. Seth and Mason would be pretty much shoe-ins barring major injury. They could each significantly drop off from this years numbers and still make it. I have a hard time seeing Ryan or Austin having their scoring drop with no Miles next year and really nowhere to go but up for Austin in terms of efficiency. The only one that I could easily see not making it is Dre. Each of the last two years, his role has diminished from the beginning of the year to the end. If the small forwards develop and Duke goes away from a 3 guard lineup, Dre seems the most likely candidate to see his playing time drop off. He's a pure 2 guard, and if Duke is playing true small forwards and Austin is still here, it will be tough for him to get the same minutes that he has gotten before. He could get squeezed on the other end too, if a guy like Sulaimon earns minutes, or Quinn Cook develops to push Curry and Rivers back to the 2 and 3 spot respectively. Now, on the other hand, Dre has the same opportunity to improve his game as everyone else so this could go the other way, but out of the 5, I see him as the most likely to fall short without any injuries or unforeseen developments.
I mentioned 6 major milestones. 5 are 1000 point scorers. The other is that Mason could potentially be just the 8th player in Duke history to crack the 1000 rebound mark, joining Shelden Williams, Mike Gminski, Christian Laettner, Randy Denton, Mike Lewis, Kyle Singler, and Danny Ferry. While 1000 points is a big deal, this is a much more exclusive club. There are some pretty big names on that list, and it would be quite an accomplishment for Mason to join it. Here's what he would have to do (besides not go to the NBA) to get there. I will again assume only 32 games played next year in terms of average needed.
Mason Plumlee: 725 rebounds, 9.2 rpg in 2012, 8.6 rpg needed in 2013
This isn't a guarantee at all, but he would get there just by keeping up his current numbers. That shouldn't be a problem with Miles gone. I can't see many scenarios in which Mason and Ryan don't become full time starters, so this would be about staying healthy and keeping his production. Pretty cut and dry.
Beside those 6 major numbers, there are a few minor milestones as well. Mason just passed Laettner yesterday for 5th on the all time blocks list, with 147. Next on the list is Cherokee Parks at 230, which would be a stretch at best, but Mason has a decent shot at becoming the 5th 200 block player in Duke history, joining Parks, Shelden Williams, Gminski, and Battier. Mason would also be a shoe-in to become Dukes all time dunks leader, for what that's worth. I remember seeing that he either tied or passed the single season mark yesterday which was 58 by Shelden Williams. If he got 58, that would put him at 128 for his career and the leader is Robert Brickey at 147, making this record not much of a hurdle. The last one is Dre creeping on the the all time 3 point list. He has 167 right now, and to break into the top 10, he would need to get to 210, which would tie Greg Paulus. Getting there has the same roadblocks as him getting to 100 points, but if he can keep his numbers up, he could get as high as 8th, passing Daniel Ewing at 217 and Jeff Capel at 220. 7th is held by Shane Battier at 246, and 79 3 pointers for Dre would be a bit of a stretch. He would need to increase his role on the team for that to happen.
Of coarse, we have to wait to see who is on the team next year, both in terms of who is coming and who is going before we can really dive into predictions on what will happen, but there is certainly going to be more to track than there was this year.