PDA

View Full Version : Mason Plumlee Returning to Duke for Senior Season



Pages : [1] 2 3 4

subzero02
03-17-2012, 05:50 PM
I know it hasn't been 24 hours since our season ended but the deadline for early entry into the NBA draft is April 29th. This year once you enter your name into the draft you cannot withdraw... Ie, no more testing the waters. If both Austin and Mason come back, watch out we'll be one of the best teams in the country. I really want to see if Austin can make the sophomore leap. If he continues to improve at the same rate, we will have one of the top scorers in the country next year(especially if he develops the ability to finish with his left). Mason would probably be the top post player in the conference next year and has the potential to make one of the All American teams.

1 24 90
03-17-2012, 06:24 PM
Are you sure there is no withdrawal date? I found this on the nba.com website.

http://www.nba.com/news/key-dates/index.html

kville33
03-17-2012, 06:39 PM
I know it hasn't been 24 hours since our season ended but the deadline for early entry into the NBA draft is April 29th. This year once you enter your name into the draft you cannot withdraw... Ie, no more testing the waters. If both Austin and Mason come back, watch out we'll be one of the best teams in the country. I really want to see if Austin can make the sophomore leap. If he continues to improve at the same rate, we will have one of the top scorers in the country next year(especially if he develops the ability to finish with his left). Mason would probably be the top post player in the conference next year and has the potential to make one of the All American teams.

Although I agree that it will be a huge help to our team to bring back Austin and Mason, I think next years team is going to belong to Tyler Thornton. His leadership has been the standout story of the season, and his clutch shooting won us multiple games this season. I want to see Thornton take on the leadership role next year that Greg Paulus did during his Junior season. Also, I think if Andre can finally get a good off-season of practice in, he will be able to develop his dribble drive moves into a dangerous weapon. Since he is already by far the best shooter on the team, if he develops more as a slasher next year, then he will become even more of a match-up nightmare for our opponents.

BD80
03-17-2012, 06:41 PM
Amusing, the state of the basketball, Austin and Mason considering the NBA, when neither was the best player on the floor in their last game - the announcers and their coach agreed it was a player from Lehigh!

I wish them both well, whatever their choice. Lower first round means a better team - less PT.

sagegrouse
03-17-2012, 06:43 PM
Although I agree that it will be a huge help to our team to bring back Austin and Mason, I think next years team is going to belong to Tyler Thornton. His leadership has been the standout story of the season, and his clutch shooting won us multiple games this season. I want to see Thornton take on the leadership role next year that Greg Paulus did during his Junior season. Also, I think if Andre can finally get a good off-season of practice in, he will be able to develop his dribble drive moves into a dangerous weapon. Since he is already by far the best shooter on the team, if he develops more as a slasher next year, then he will become even more of a match-up nightmare for our opponents.

Uh,... I get the several jokes in here if you meant them as jokes (cruelty ones at that): Paulus's poor junior year, Thornton's mostly nonexistent offense, the cataclysmic plunge in Andre's shooting percentage and his poor handle. What's going on?

sagegrouse

Greg_Newton
03-17-2012, 06:53 PM
Honest question: if you're an NBA GM, what position are drafting Austin to play right now? What type of plays do you expect him to make for your team, and which position to you expect him to defend?

Dukehky
03-17-2012, 06:58 PM
I was about to say the same thing sage. I was warned by the moderators for stating my feelings on Paulus' basketball abilities so I will utter nothing more than I hope that Thornton plays better than Greg did his junior year and takes about 25% the shots he did.

We need some pretty unexpected things to happen to be competitive for a NC next year like Mason and Austin returning. It's not completely out of the question, but its necessary. Adding Shabazz would certainly help as well. If last night didn't add to his mindset that Duke really needs someone of his skillset/size.

Nothing I've read has said that Mason or Austin staying in school will hurt their draft stock, heaven forbid an injury. I have no idea what would be going through Mason's head right now, maybe he wants to go ahead and make his money, maybe he wants to have the four year experience that helped his older brother out so much. It's really hard to read right now. And if Austin leaves now, his short lived legacy, despite hitting the UNC shot, will be one of disappointment after last night's game and I have a hard time seeing the Duke community as a whole being tremendously supportive of him in the future, unlike they are with Kyrie. Maybe that matters to him, maybe it doesn't. Staying in school would help his game, but you know, so would playing in the NBA. Nobody goes to the league and doesn't get better at basketball, they may not get good enough to play, but they're better than they were in college. I think that Austin's dad is going to be key in Austin's decision and who better to do so. He can give him the NBA vibe about him, but also tell him some personal things that I believe would be more for Austin staying at Duke. Unlike several other top prospects, Austin doesn't need the money, so I believe that he and his family will tell him to do what is best for him, and his game.


Go Wolfpack (for the next 3 weeks, except in the Amile Jefferson arena)

DukeGirl4ever
03-17-2012, 07:00 PM
Honest question: if you're an NBA GM, what position are drafting Austin to play right now? What type of plays do you expect him to make for your team, and which position to you expect him to defend?

How odd, my husband and I are having this exact conversation right now, and he posed the SAME question Greg!

He said there's no way he's gonna play SG - he's not a pure shooter.

It will be interesting to see what happens with AR and Mase. I hope like heck they come back, but I'm a Duke girl at heart and therefore only think with my heart.

As a fan, I'd love for them to hurry up and make the decision now to give me some sense of relief in this off-season.
But, they need to do what's best for them and if that means taking the time to feel things out, I'll be ok with that. Duke basketball isn't going anywhere and neither am I.

uh_no
03-17-2012, 07:02 PM
Honest question: if you're an NBA GM, what position are drafting Austin to play right now? What type of plays do you expect him to make for your team, and which position to you expect him to defend?

I tell him he needs 1 more year :P

But in all honesty, he's a SG with a whole lot of potential...he can drive, he can shoot...and really, who cares about defense in teh NBA anyway? He can drive, and he can shoot, i'm not sure what plays you expect him NOT to make...except for maybe distributing....he's a shooting guard through and through, so maybe i'm missing the point of the question.

He came along so much in the second half of the year...it was incredible. But if I'm a GM, i'm not sure I draft him lottery. I would predict mid first round...just because i think he needs another year or two to come near his potential (obviously i'd love for that to be at duke). I think he's a NPOY candidate if he stays and solidifies himself as a strong candidate for the number one pick. With K and Doc, I'm sure he has all the feedback he could ever want, and he doesn't have to worry about money....so I can certainly imagine him wanting to come back for a better year (you could see how emotionally invested he became in games), and he certainly has much more to do as an individual in the college game.

Acymetric
03-17-2012, 07:23 PM
I tell him he needs 1 more year :P

But in all honesty, he's a SG with a whole lot of potential...he can drive, he can shoot...and really, who cares about defense in teh NBA anyway? He can drive, and he can shoot, i'm not sure what plays you expect him NOT to make...except for maybe distributing....he's a shooting guard through and through, so maybe i'm missing the point of the question.

He came along so much in the second half of the year...it was incredible. But if I'm a GM, i'm not sure I draft him lottery. I would predict mid first round...just because i think he needs another year or two to come near his potential (obviously i'd love for that to be at duke). I think he's a NPOY candidate if he stays and solidifies himself as a strong candidate for the number one pick. With K and Doc, I'm sure he has all the feedback he could ever want, and he doesn't have to worry about money....so I can certainly imagine him wanting to come back for a better year (you could see how emotionally invested he became in games), and he certainly has much more to do as an individual in the college game.

But can he drive at an NBA level? He has had trouble finishing at the rim against college players, and leaves points at the line in the event that he is fouled and misses the shot. Oh, and even though the whole "no defense in the NBA" idea is trendy it really just isn't that true anymore.

I think Austin was a very good player for us this year and think he has the potential to be a good player in the NBA but I think he has a lot of development left before he can even be in the rotation on most NBA teams.

uh_no
03-17-2012, 07:26 PM
But can he drive at an NBA level? He has had trouble finishing at the rim against college players, and leaves points at the line in the event that he is fouled and misses the shot. Oh, and even though the whole "no defense in the NBA" idea is trendy it really just isn't that true anymore.

I think Austin was a very good player for us this year and think he has the potential to be a good player in the NBA but I think he has a lot of development left before he can even be in the rotation on most NBA teams.

Yeah, I think we ultimately agree. He could go to the nba, and he could come along in a few years....As for the no defense in the NBA, did you watch the knicks in teh d'antonio era? :P

Or he could stay and master the college game before accepting a new challenge.

OldSchool
03-17-2012, 07:32 PM
Honest question: if you're an NBA GM, what position are drafting Austin to play right now? What type of plays do you expect him to make for your team, and which position to you expect him to defend?

To my mind the question is how much physically stronger can Austin get? If he can get a lot stronger (I mean a LOT) then I see his ceiling as a Dwyane Wade type player with an even better outside shot. That style of shooting guard play results in just a physical beating game after game by the bigs when they drive into the lane and go to the rack. But you've got to be really physically strong to sustain that type of game in the NBA.

MaxAMillion
03-17-2012, 07:33 PM
I tell him he needs 1 more year :P

But in all honesty, he's a SG with a whole lot of potential...he can drive, he can shoot...and really, who cares about defense in teh NBA anyway? He can drive, and he can shoot, i'm not sure what plays you expect him NOT to make...except for maybe distributing....he's a shooting guard through and through, so maybe i'm missing the point of the question.

He came along so much in the second half of the year...it was incredible. But if I'm a GM, i'm not sure I draft him lottery. I would predict mid first round...just because i think he needs another year or two to come near his potential (obviously i'd love for that to be at duke). I think he's a NPOY candidate if he stays and solidifies himself as a strong candidate for the number one pick. With K and Doc, I'm sure he has all the feedback he could ever want, and he doesn't have to worry about money....so I can certainly imagine him wanting to come back for a better year (you could see how emotionally invested he became in games), and he certainly has much more to do as an individual in the college game.

There is a lot of defense played in the NBA. This is an old knock from the late 80's and early 90's that doesn't really exist anymore.

OldSchool
03-17-2012, 07:34 PM
He ... leaves points at the line in the event that he is fouled and misses the shot.

This is an important point. His foul shooting is unacceptably low for the type of game he would be bringing to the NBA.

uh_no
03-17-2012, 07:35 PM
There is a lot of defense played in the NBA. This is an old knock from the late 80's and early 90's that doesn't really exist anymore.

I disagree....it really really depends on the team.

You need to play defense to be GOOD in the NBA....but there are a lot of bad teams in the NBA...

Dukehky
03-17-2012, 07:38 PM
I was initially very hopeful for Austin returning when I listened to his post-game interview. Although it seemed like he was disgusted with himself and the rest of his team except Miles, I really think that he was actually hurting and didn't want to leave his Duke career like that. I hope I'm right and he comes back because with him out, there's still no player in a Duke uniform who can "create his own shot" as the announcers always like to point out, and I think that puts us in serious trouble. His passing is only going to get better too. AAU basketball is a showcase what YOU can do system and doesn't put a lot of emphasis on passing. Winter Park high school isn't exactly a power house where Austin can defer and pass. He had to shoot, I'd bet that his whole life he felt he had to shoot. The more time he gets with players whom he can trust or should be able to trust, the better passer he'll become (hopefully). Or he could just go pro and leave me hurting. Love that kid's swag.

Rasheed I've heard can do it but until I see it at the college level, he's just another freshman who I have high hopes for.

SCMatt33
03-17-2012, 07:51 PM
Honest question: if you're an NBA GM, what position are drafting Austin to play right now? What type of plays do you expect him to make for your team, and which position to you expect him to defend?

He's clearly a 2 at the next level. He's listed at 6-4, 200 lbs by Duke (which is at least as reliable as any NBA team measurements), so he's not undersized for that position by any means. He certainly has potential. No one is accusing him of lacking the lateral quickness or first step to be able to defend at the NBA level. He just has no clue what he is doing. I don't know what his wingspan is, but unless he's got a ridiculous case of t-rex arms, there's no reason that he won't be a 2 guard in the NBA. He doesn't have the top gear speed that some of the NBA guys have, but he can start and stop with the best of them. That's the only reason he's so good at getting his own shot. Sure he's raw in pretty much all aspects of them game, but since when has that stopped GM's from taking guys with the promise of developing them. Would he start for a team right now, of coarse not, but then again, if he were good enough to start right away, he'd be projected as a top 5 pick instead of back end lottery or mid first rounder.

bjornolf
03-17-2012, 07:52 PM
Does Miles have any chance of getting drafted? If so, I would think Mason would stay to avoid hurting his big brother's position. Plus, he could work on his offense some more and maybe bulk up a little to withstand banging with those NBA hosses over an 80+ game season. Plus, he'd get to play with MP3 for a season.

Des Esseintes
03-17-2012, 07:55 PM
I was about to say the same thing sage. I was warned by the moderators for stating my feelings on Paulus' basketball abilities so I will utter nothing more than I hope that Thornton plays better than Greg did his junior year and takes about 25% the shots he did.


This point is a minor one, but Paulus was actually an excellent long-range shooter his junior year. His percentages were poor his first two seasons, but that year he shot over 40% from deep. His defense and handle remained an issue, but he helped the team space the floor and hit some big shots for Duke.

What you are probably remembering was the oddity of his senior year. The plan was to make Nolan the primary pg and let Paulus focus mainly on shooting from the two. But both parts of that plan fell apart, as Paulus struggled with his demotion, shot poorly, and failed to improve the other aspects of his game, while Nolan had trouble running the offense. Two-thirds of the way through the year, K made Paulus point guard again. It didn't work, and the team continued to scuffle. That was when Scheyer took over lead guard responsibilities, with terrific success. Paulus barely played the last several games of the season. It's perhaps the lone Duke senior season in recent memory to leave a strange taste in the mouth.

Edouble
03-17-2012, 07:58 PM
I know it hasn't been 24 hours since our season ended but the deadline for early entry into the NBA draft is April 29th. This year once you enter your name into the draft you cannot withdraw... Ie, no more testing the waters. If both Austin and Mason come back, watch out we'll be one of the best teams in the country. I really want to see if Austin can make the sophomore leap. If he continues to improve at the same rate, we will have one of the top scorers in the country next year(especially if he develops the ability to finish with his left). Mason would probably be the top post player in the conference next year and has the potential to make one of the All American teams.

At this point in his career, I don't see Mason making the leap to an becoming All-American type player. He excels in an offense where we can run in transition and get dunks (when he played with Kyrie), and he has big games when our guards can break down the other team's defense, leaving him for open dunks, or alley-oops off of double teams. We made a real effort to get him the ball early in the year to operate down low. Then, after Ohio State, we went away from that. We badly needed another offensive threat, but we didn't go to Mason very much. I don't see why, after 3 years, Coach K would decide to feature Mason in a starring offensive role. I am not sure he likes what he sees enough.

I just don't see a player that after 3 years in our system, who wasn't able to stay in the starting line-up, becoming an All-American/top big in the conference.

A lot of talk about where/how/how well Austin would play in the NBA in this thread. In my mind, that doesn't matter at all. Kids that are 'tweeners and kids that are not ready leave all the time. Some make it, some don't.

The question is "Will he leave"?

uh_no
03-17-2012, 08:00 PM
Does Miles have any chance of getting drafted? If so, I would think Mason would stay to avoid hurting his big brother's position. Plus, he could work on his offense some more and maybe bulk up a little to withstand banging with those NBA hosses over an 80+ game season. Plus, he'd get to play with MP3 for a season.

some projections have him late second round, i think. either way, he'll most likely get his shot to work out for teams.

SCMatt33
03-17-2012, 08:01 PM
Does Miles have any chance of getting drafted? If so, I would think Mason would stay to avoid hurting his big brother's position. Plus, he could work on his offense some more and maybe bulk up a little to withstand banging with those NBA hosses over an 80+ game season. Plus, he'd get to play with MP3 for a season.

I doubt Miles will get drafted. Even if he does, it's not likely that he would be close enough to Mason in the draft for one to directly affect the draft position of the other. He could sneak into the middle to end of the second round, but teams seem to like international guys at the end now where they can hold their rights without being forced to either pay them or cut them. Then they can sign guys as free agents from the US and not worry about having wasted a draft pick on them if they have to cut them in training camp. Last year, most of the last ten picks were all international guys. I hope that Miles can at least earn an invite to the combine and then maybe things would change, but I don't think that right now he'd be more than a flyer for someone near the end of the draft at best.

Rich
03-17-2012, 08:17 PM
A lot of talk about where/how/how well Austin would play in the NBA in this thread. In my mind, that doesn't matter at all. Kids that are 'tweeners and kids that are not ready leave all the time. Some make it, some don't.

Those kids don't have an NBA coach for a father. No doubt his decision will be an informed one.

Greg_Newton
03-17-2012, 08:21 PM
But can he drive at an NBA level? He has had trouble finishing at the rim against college players, and leaves points at the line in the event that he is fouled and misses the shot. Oh, and even though the whole "no defense in the NBA" idea is trendy it really just isn't that true anymore.

I think Austin was a very good player for us this year and think he has the potential to be a good player in the NBA but I think he has a lot of development left before he can even be in the rotation on most NBA teams.

Your first paragraph is pretty much my take.

Austin has a terrific first step, but had trouble finishing at the rim at times in high school. He's got much better in college, but he still struggles to finisher against big, physical front lines, especially going left. If he struggles against Xavier Gibson and Bernard James, I can't imagine he'll be a Dwayne Wade or Gerald Henderson type of finisher in the lane against the Tyson Chandlers and Serge Ibakas of the NBA.

Matt, I completely disagree about Austin's NBA prospects. I think his ceiling is immensely higher as a PG than as a SG. I think his 6'4 200 listing is fairly generous - I kind of doubt he's the same size as Andre Dawkins, and I don't think he'll be able to pack much additional muscle on his wiry frame. He's a streaky, but not great shooter, struggles at the FT line, isn't an explosive dunker, isn't great at absorbing contact, and would be undersized vs. your average NBA SG (even skinny guys like Kevin Martin and Matt Barnes are 6'7). I think he'd be a good NBA SG, but not someone you'd build a franchise around.

Why not leverage his greatest strengths - an otherworldly handle and first step - and try to make the conversion to PG? It's worked out pretty well for guys like Russell Westbrook, Rodney Stuckey, Jrue Holiday, etc. A slight adjustment in mentality, and he becomes that much more dangerous, IMO. If he could show decent PG skills in a successful sophomore year, I'd think he'd be a lottery lock.

RoyalBlue08
03-17-2012, 08:57 PM
I think PG is something you need to have a feel for. Austin is a SG, and his weakest point seems to be his court vision/awareness. I think his game is well suited to the NBA with the extra court spacing and emphasis on 1v1 play. I do think he could use an extra year or two so he doesn't get buried on a bench somewhere, but I'm sure his dad can give him excellent advice. And of course I wish him the best of luck on however he decides to pursue his career.

subzero02
03-17-2012, 09:00 PM
Are you sure there is no withdrawal date? I found this on the nba.com website.

http://www.nba.com/news/key-dates/index.html


After doing a bit of research I found this.The date in the article you linked is the date that the NBA has decided on. The NCAA has set its own date for withdrawal however... The day before early signing period for the spring... (Mid april)

Below is an article from last year... Basically players would have to withdraw before NBA teams could get a chance to evaluate them.


If the new deadline were in place this year, Missouri's Kim English, Michigan's Darius Morris and Pitt's Ashton Gibbs would have been forced to make up their minds by April 12.

The NBA does not even require players to enter the draft until April 24, and the final draft order won’t be set for nearly a month.

“Testing the waters” used to be a legitimate exercise for college players with professional aspirations. Now, if they get a splash of that water on their sneakers they’ll be gone from college for good.

The coaches from the Atlantic Coast Conference pushed for the change of the NBA’s withdrawal deadline for early entrants, which had allowed players to consider their options until 10 days before the draft, to the early May deadline that was in place in 2010 and will be again this year. The ACC again backed this new proposal, supposedly so the colleges could have some degree of certainty regarding future rosters.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2011-04-13/ncaa-would-be-wrong-to-move-up-early-entry-date

Jeff0r3
03-17-2012, 09:07 PM
I think they should both stay.. Mason especially.. He is an exceptional athlete, but has really got to get more solid as a post up player. With his ability and size he should get a touch almost every offensive possession. Austin as a SG will happen. I'd love to see him mature a little as a person before he makes the move. He is so determined and I really enjoy his focus. Each game I went to this year, I constantly watched him 75% of the time. He really has a will to be the best, and I feel he will be very good in the NBA. I just hope they both stay.. For my selfish reasons, and I think it would be better for them to both take a year to work on areas of their game that were severely exposed this season.

Gthoma2a
03-17-2012, 09:22 PM
I hope we keep Mason. Mason is a necessity for next year IMO. I would like to keep Austin, but that is up to him (he may want to start making his name in the NBA immediately and we have Sulaimon coming in next year). I just hope that if he stays, we learn how to incorporate him within the offense without just running an isolation. It is great that he is comfortable taking on a defense on his own, but we need to run a real offense that isn't him as one guy and the rest as 4 guys who stand around when he has the ball watching what he does. We have had great players in the past. I think Nolan was an amazing player, but we made sure he succeeded WITHIN the offense, not around it. That isn't a knock to Austin (he has amazing ability and I love it) or anyone, just a strategy I felt weird watching a lot this season.

Dukehky
03-17-2012, 09:32 PM
Mason would improve more as a player in the NBA and that's just a fact. He's going against better competition, and all they do is play basketball. Mason's going to need to get NBA development from NBA players and coaches. Sure his skills could get honed a little more if he stayed in college, but I don't see him being the focal point of the offense. If Mason chooses to stay, I believe it will be more for personal reasons than for basketball reasons. Maybe this extra year would help him with his instincts on the court, because to be perfectly honest, most of his instincts are bad. It's jump as high as I can all the time and be bigger than everyone, which is just terrible for defense, he literally can be caught on a pump fake every time, no matter the size of the offensive player. Feel for the game and the game at a slower less skilled pace is really the only thing Mason can continue make drastic improvements on if he chooses to stay another year in my opinion. He's got some post skills, it's all about people getting him the ball, and with these players, that's just as much about the guards being willing and eager to get the ball in the post, which they clearly are not. Pick and rolls may just as well be called pick and sit on the bench.

I hope he stays because he's a major talent and makes our team a viable National Title contender if Austin comes back, but I think its unfair to kid yourself into thinking that he's going to turn himself into Tim Duncan if he stays another year.

kingboozer
03-17-2012, 09:45 PM
I don't think Mason nor Austin are ready for the NBA. Mason showed great strides this year but could use another year in the weight room and to develop his shot. Austin also needs another year, he's going to get lost in the shuffle at the NBA level if he leaves this year. His size and confidence have to be better to be a top 10 pick. He's no Kyrie (YET) and shouldn't be unfairly compared to him. With that said, if he were to stay 4 years and keep up at the rate he's going, I could see No. 0 in the rafters one day.

DrGonzo
03-17-2012, 09:59 PM
Mason isn't going to go anywhere. He's a four year guy just like his brother....at least I hope/assume so. Hopefully Austin's daddy Doc with be in his ear telling him he is not ready for the league because he isn't. Is he a great scorer? Yes. Does he need to work on MANY other aspects of his game? The smart decision for Rivers would be to stay at least one more year. It's not like he needs to go pro to put food on his family's table. I am personally interested to see how Cook and Plumlee #3 will develop in the offseason.

G man
03-17-2012, 10:07 PM
Just think about Nolan's growth over his last two years. Imagine if Austin stayed that long we would be a hell of a ball player when he left Duke. I just don't think he will stay that long, but one can dream right.

El_Diablo
03-17-2012, 10:11 PM
So, in other words...no news yet.

subzero02
03-17-2012, 10:24 PM
We'll be lucky to get two years out of Austin... Getting 4 years from him is almost out of the question

DukeGirl4ever
03-17-2012, 10:26 PM
So, in other words...no news yet.

Saw Watzone had tweeted this in the early morning hours:


Mark Watson ‏ @BlueDevilNation
Duke has what they call exit interviews where the possibility of going pro is discussed. Nothing is done yet.

dukelifer
03-17-2012, 10:27 PM
Mason isn't going to go anywhere. He's a four year guy just like his brother....at least I hope/assume so. Hopefully Austin's daddy Doc with be in his ear telling him he is not ready for the league because he isn't. Is he a great scorer? Yes. Does he need to work on MANY other aspects of his game? The smart decision for Rivers would be to stay at least one more year. It's not like he needs to go pro to put food on his family's table. I am personally interested to see how Cook and Plumlee #3 will develop in the offseason.

I am pretty sure his family has 100 tables in their house ;)

BlueDevilBrowns
03-17-2012, 10:40 PM
Your first paragraph is pretty much my take.

Austin has a terrific first step, but had trouble finishing at the rim at times in high school. He's got much better in college, but he still struggles to finisher against big, physical front lines, especially going left. If he struggles against Xavier Gibson and Bernard James, I can't imagine he'll be a Dwayne Wade or Gerald Henderson type of finisher in the lane against the Tyson Chandlers and Serge Ibakas of the NBA.

Matt, I completely disagree about Austin's NBA prospects. I think his ceiling is immensely higher as a PG than as a SG. I think his 6'4 200 listing is fairly generous - I kind of doubt he's the same size as Andre Dawkins, and I don't think he'll be able to pack much additional muscle on his wiry frame. He's a streaky, but not great shooter, struggles at the FT line, isn't an explosive dunker, isn't great at absorbing contact, and would be undersized vs. your average NBA SG (even skinny guys like Kevin Martin and Matt Barnes are 6'7). I think he'd be a good NBA SG, but not someone you'd build a franchise around.

Why not leverage his greatest strengths - an otherworldly handle and first step - and try to make the conversion to PG? It's worked out pretty well for guys like Russell Westbrook, Rodney Stuckey, Jrue Holiday, etc. A slight adjustment in mentality, and he becomes that much more dangerous, IMO. If he could show decent PG skills in a successful sophomore year, I'd think he'd be a lottery lock.

Indeed, AR's future, IMO, in the NBA is at PG, not SG, at least if he wants to be drafted top 5-10. If his shot were more "JJ"-like, I could see him going in the 10-14 range of the draft or if he was freaky-athletic like Gerald. He's still 1st round as a SG, just in the late teens to mid 20's, certainly not lottery as of now. An extra year at Duke showcasing his PG skills and leading the team to post-season success would take him where I think he wants to go.

Kedsy
03-17-2012, 11:46 PM
And if Austin leaves now, his short lived legacy, despite hitting the UNC shot, will be one of disappointment after last night's game and I have a hard time seeing the Duke community as a whole being tremendously supportive of him in the future, unlike they are with Kyrie.

Are you kidding? Austin put his entire soul into every minute he was on the court. Why wouldn't the Duke community be supportive of him?


It's perhaps the lone Duke senior season in recent memory to leave a strange taste in the mouth.

Does Ricky Price not count as recent?

Kedsy
03-17-2012, 11:57 PM
I just don't see a player that after 3 years in our system, who wasn't able to stay in the starting line-up, becoming an All-American/top big in the conference.

If he returns, Mason will be in the top 3 returning ACC players in the following stats: rebounds per game, defensive rebound %, offensive rebound %, FG%, eFG%, free throw rate, and top five in blocks. Plus assuming his FT% continues to improve he should score 14 or 15 ppg even if we don't go to him more than we did this year. He's likely to average a double-double against one of the top schedules in the country. Sounds like the top (or maybe one of the top 2 or 3) bigs in the ACC and an All-American candidate to me.

miramar
03-18-2012, 12:08 AM
Does Ricky Price not count as recent?

Good point, but in that case it may be unusual junior and senior years since his sophomore season was his most productive.

GP3 looked much slower his senior year, which made it seem that injuries or wear and tear caused his decline.

Des Esseintes
03-18-2012, 12:18 AM
Does Ricky Price not count as recent?

Thanks. Forgot about Price. In any event, Duke senior seasons are usually pretty positive affairs from the standpoint of personal development. It really sticks out when something else happens.

-bdbd
03-18-2012, 12:24 AM
If he returns, Mason will be in the top 3 returning ACC players in the following stats: rebounds per game, defensive rebound %, offensive rebound %, FG%, eFG%, free throw rate, and top five in blocks. Plus assuming his FT% continues to improve he should score 14 or 15 ppg even if we don't go to him more than we did this year. He's likely to average a double-double against one of the top schedules in the country. Sounds like the top (or maybe one of the top 2 or 3) bigs in the ACC and an All-American candidate to me.

Actually agree with you Kedsy (surprise!!).
;)


This is a big part of why I've been saying I've come around to the view, recently, that he is more than likely to stay. Obviously the double-major announcement helps the comfort level in that prediction too, as well as the "unfinished business" feeling from this season. Even if there weren't the draw of playing with MP3, which I actually think will be a big pull, there's no doubt in my mind that Mason greatly enhances his probable draft position by staying another year. (That is partially due to who's going into this year's draft among bigs nationally, and partially on the opportunity to develop certain NBA-critical skills next year, plus enhanced visibility of being a probable pre-season All-ACC pick...) I hope that (draft enhancement) statement appears in some form or fashion in his exit interview (along with the specific "draftable" skills the staff plans to work on with him over the next 12 months.

I'll be surprised, but not shocked, if MP2 leaves. With Austin, I am much less certain, especially since I strongly suspect that he and his dad still don't know either.

For all of those pointing to the criticality of this recruit or that recruit to next year's success, the reality is that almost all years the decision as to whether certain current players return is almost always a bigger determinant of success the following year. Experience pays dividends.

:cool:

gwlaw99
03-18-2012, 02:49 AM
I think two of Austin's problems are: 1) he can't or won't finish with his left hand when he drives left. Right hand finishes from the left side will be blocked in the NBA; 2) He doesn't seem to ever drive baseline; even when there is no other defender once he beats his man. The few times he has, he has gotten easy layups. 99% of the time he drives down the lane and teams are ready for him.

Edouble
03-18-2012, 03:20 AM
Mason isn't going to go anywhere. He's a four year guy just like his brother....

I don't think Miles Plumlee would have been drafted if he had left after last season.

Edouble
03-18-2012, 03:23 AM
I hope we keep Mason. Mason is a necessity for next year IMO.

I thought the same thing about Elliot Williams. After Friday night's game, I don't see any one player as being necessary, except maybe Ryan.

DUKIE V(A)
03-18-2012, 07:21 AM
I was about to say the same thing sage. I was warned by the moderators for stating my feelings on Paulus' basketball abilities so I will utter nothing more than I hope that Thornton plays better than Greg did his junior year and takes about 25% the shots he did.

And if Austin leaves now, his short lived legacy, despite hitting the UNC shot, will be one of disappointment after last night's game and I have a hard time seeing the Duke community as a whole being tremendously supportive of him in the future, unlike they are with Kyrie.

Thornton played some very good basketball for Duke this season and was an important leader. He'll work hard on his shot, and I suspect will make signficant improvement in that area.

I disagree about Austin. The Duke Community will be tremendously supportive of him no matter his decision.

dukelifer
03-18-2012, 08:11 AM
Mason isn't going to go anywhere. He's a four year guy just like his brother....at least I hope/assume so. Hopefully Austin's daddy Doc with be in his ear telling him he is not ready for the league because he isn't. Is he a great scorer? Yes. Does he need to work on MANY other aspects of his game? The smart decision for Rivers would be to stay at least one more year. It's not like he needs to go pro to put food on his family's table. I am personally interested to see how Cook and Plumlee #3 will develop in the offseason.

Mason's degree will be important to him and a lot will depend on how close he is to finishing (perhaps the answer is buried in this thread). As for Austib, he will be drafted. The NBA drafts potential. His game translates to the next level. Will be be great next year if he goes pro- probably not- but in two years he will be a very good. His only reasons for staying is that he likes the environment and wants a chance to play in the FF- which is possible with this team should Mason return and the summer is spent fixing some of the pieces. But his Dad may be the decider- he may want him to continue to be with his peer group for a while- he knows what lies ahead for a young man at the next level.

jamesfrommaiden
03-18-2012, 12:10 PM
We all know that Austin and Mason would benefit from another year at Duke. Austin is a tremendous talent but we all know his flaws and would like to see him stay and fulfill his potential at the college level before moving on. I see no reason to think that Mason's draft stock can be anything but helped by returning to Duke. His size and athletic ability are not an easy thing to find, combined with an intensity that any great team needs. He plays hard but just does not always get the results we hope for. I see him averaging 14 and 10 with 2 or 3 blocks a game if he comes back. Either way it is crucial they return. We have know idea about Shabazz or Parker. Maybe if Austin or Mason moves on, that will bring in a couple of the big time recruits that are still available. But I would rather have them both back with the addition of a couple of new pieces than not. I just hope Austin and Mason make their decisions sooner rather than later so we can figure out whaqt the next step is.

SupaDave
03-18-2012, 12:29 PM
I just hope Austin and Mason make their decisions sooner rather than later so we can figure out whaqt the next step is.

Yep, that's exactly what I would use as my basis for making a decision about the NBA... Geez.

MCFinARL
03-18-2012, 01:09 PM
Mason's degree will be important to him and a lot will depend on how close he is to finishing (perhaps the answer is buried in this thread). As for Austib, he will be drafted. The NBA drafts potential. His game translates to the next level. Will be be great next year if he goes pro- probably not- but in two years he will be a very good. His only reasons for staying is that he likes the environment and wants a chance to play in the FF- which is possible with this team should Mason return and the summer is spent fixing some of the pieces. But his Dad may be the decider- he may want him to continue to be with his peer group for a while- he knows what lies ahead for a young man at the next level.

Yes, he will be drafted if he leaves this year. And one way or another he will have a chance to develop his skills over the next couple of years. But I'm not sure I agree with the bolded part of your post. Because he is financially secure and has the benefit of wise and extremely well-informed counsel not only from his coach but from his dad, he has the luxury of thinking through whether he would rather go out now, be drafted lower, and mostly sit on an NBA bench while he is developing those skills against a higher level of players in practice, or whether he would rather work on the skills at Duke, getting many more minutes of actual game play while not taking the level of pounding in practice he would in the league. Depending on exactly what he wants from his pro career and what he thinks he most needs to work on, either one of these might be a better long-range plan.

awhom111
03-18-2012, 01:47 PM
If Mason (and our other Juniors) stay, that would mean that all of the players on our last National Champions would have exhausted their eligibility/not declared for the NBA draft, right? (Olek did leave halfway through the season) I wonder which National Champion before that can claim that?

jamesfrommaiden
03-18-2012, 02:22 PM
Yep, that's exactly what I would use as my basis for making a decision about the NBA... Geez.

I am only trying to make the point that the sooner everyone knows what the decisions are the more options Duke has as far as attracting recruits.

Cameron
03-18-2012, 02:52 PM
Uh,... I get the several jokes in here if you meant them as jokes (cruelty ones at that): Paulus's poor junior year

If poor is some sort of ghetto-slang synonym for really good, like ill is for tight or sweet then, yes, you are correct in your observation.

Paulus averaged 11.4 points, nearly 4 assists and hit a career-high 83 three-pointers during his junior season for Duke. While a Chris Duhon-level defender he was not, Paulus played with unrivaled heart, momentous effort and was often times the most vitally-important offensive player on the team due to his unlimited range and ability to take a game over from the outside. Paulus was absolutely deadly from 25 feet and in that year, nailing four or more threes on eight different occasions. He was our best shooter and, many times, most reliable scorer in big-game moments.

Without Paulus, we don't win in Chapel Hill in 2008 and suffer a spell of four years without a victory against the Heels. In that early February contest in the Dean Smith Center, he netted 18 points and dropped six threes in one of the more memorable shooting performances from any Blue Devil in the rivalry in recent years. It was a very coolheaded and J.J.-like display. Also, in the second round that March against West Virginia, it was the superior shooting of Paulus early that spurted Duke out to a double-digit lead in the first half. Things didn't end as we all would have liked, but Paulus was very much a positive factor in 2008 and, when I look back on his career in Durham, that junior season is a pretty fond memory.

ChicagoCrazy84
03-18-2012, 03:01 PM
I am only trying to make the point that the sooner everyone knows what the decisions are the more options Duke has as far as attracting recruits.


I agree, nothing like waiting a month to see where we will be at. The good thing is that even if Austin leaves, we will be fine with the shooting guard position. I can't wait for Rasheed, I think the kid will be special. Anyways, I fully expect Mason to come back, I think Mason has enjoyed his time here and wants to finish the right way (and play with Marshall!) I actually think marshall will help keep him there :) With Austin, yeah he can definitely improve his stock. Everyone has talked about his strength and ability to finish...one other thing I haven't heard talked about is his shooting ability! The kid has no mid-range game and his 3pt shot is very inconsistent. What did he shoot 32% on the year?

Kedsy
03-18-2012, 03:12 PM
What did he shoot 32% on the year?

For the season, Austin shot 37% (which is pretty good) from three (44% overall). This is not so difficult to look up.

Greg_Newton
03-18-2012, 04:53 PM
Does anyone know when the withdrawal deadline is? It says April 29th on NBA.com, but I thought I'd read that it was somewhere around April 10-12 this year, which would not allow prospects to test the waters. Did the ACC/NCAA pass something along those lines, or did I make that up?

You know, I kind of forget that Mason Plumlee is already 22. I had kind of been assuming he'd come back to improve his stock Zeller-style, but that's a little worrying. Hopefully he keeps the faith...

DrGonzo
03-18-2012, 05:07 PM
I don't think Miles Plumlee would have been drafted if he had left after last season.

Well if the goal is to get drafted then I guess he should leave. But he is nowhere near ready for the league. Shelden Williams was a BEAST of a center for Duke, he got drafted and I don't even know if he is in the league anymore. I just meant I think Mason never came to Duke with the intention of leaving early to get drafted. He came to get an education and play for Coach K. And honestly I don't think he would want to leave after getting put out in the first round either. I could be wrong about all of this, I guess time will tell.

IBleedBlue
03-18-2012, 05:07 PM
From adding value to our basketball program, I believe Mason should go if he is a first round pick in the draft. There's already this bad impression among youngsters that big men do not develop at Duke and they don't do anything other than setting screens and rebounding. With Mason getting drafted, we will have a positive development to sell for recruiting big men.
We are already known for developing good guards. So, Austin's entering the draft makes much less of a difference in terms of value.
The value I am talking about is not quantifiable. It's an impression of our program.

uh_no
03-18-2012, 05:15 PM
From adding value to our basketball program, I believe Mason should go if he is a first round pick in the draft. There's already this bad impression among youngsters that big men do not develop at Duke and they don't do anything other than setting screens and rebounding. With Mason getting drafted, we will have a positive development to sell for recruiting big men.
We are already known for developing good guards. So, Austin's entering the draft makes much less of a difference in terms of value.
The value I am talking about is not quantifiable. It's an impression of our program.

I think that perception changed this year, with the emergence of mason and ryan. Now, it was absolutely overshadowed by UNC's success this year, but if UNC had a slightly worse team, mason would have been getting all sorts of accolades...imagine if he had kyrie or jon feeding him the ball again....

Johnny Chill
03-18-2012, 05:20 PM
Mason should enter his name in the draft without an agent and see were he stands in regards to the other players entering the draft. There is no reason not to do that.

Personally, I think Mason will be drafted in the 1st round and can be a serviceable backup big man in the NBA sometime in the future, but there is no way he will be an impact player as a rookie next season.

Instead in can compare his standing against the other players, then comeback to Duke and have a big impact for this Duke team as a Senior leader.

Acymetric
03-18-2012, 05:36 PM
Well if the goal is to get drafted then I guess he should leave. But he is nowhere near ready for the league. Shelden Williams was a BEAST of a center for Duke, he got drafted and I don't even know if he is in the league anymore. I just meant I think Mason never came to Duke with the intention of leaving early to get drafted. He came to get an education and play for Coach K. And honestly I don't think he would want to leave after getting put out in the first round either. I could be wrong about all of this, I guess time will tell.

Actually he's playing solid minutes and occasionally starting for the Nets.

DrGonzo
03-18-2012, 05:49 PM
Actually he's playing solid minutes and occasionally starting for the Nets.

I didn't know that. I just knew he got drafted by my hometown Atlanta Hawks and I was pumped but he never played...I kinda quit keeping track of him...and the NBA in general a few years ago.

Edouble
03-18-2012, 06:37 PM
Well if the goal is to get drafted then I guess he should leave. But he is nowhere near ready for the league. Shelden Williams was a BEAST of a center for Duke, he got drafted and I don't even know if he is in the league anymore. I just meant I think Mason never came to Duke with the intention of leaving early to get drafted. He came to get an education and play for Coach K. And honestly I don't think he would want to leave after getting put out in the first round either. I could be wrong about all of this, I guess time will tell.

Thankfully, Shelden has made over $11 million in the NBA and is still in the league. I'm not sure what Shelden has to do with Mason though. They are very different players.

Most of our high-level, McDonald's All-American players probably have the goal of getting drafted into the NBA, like it or not.

Saying that Miles is a four year guy implies that he made a choice to finish at Duke instead of going to the NBA. I do not believe that the NBA was ever an option for him following his junior year. I do think that Mason could be drafted in the first round in this year's NBA draft.

I am sorry, but I do not see what makes you believe that Mason has never had intentions of leaving early, or that his NCAA tournament game would affect his decision to stay at Duke. Gerald Henderson was certainly ready to go the NBA after we got creamed by Villanova and had a real shortage of guards for the next season. Josh McRoberts was ready after a first round NCAA tournament loss to VCU. I think it's pretty silly to try to project onto players what you would like for them to be thinking. I'm not sure what about Mason would lead to to believe that he would not to leave Duke early for the NBA if that option were available.

RoyalBlue08
03-18-2012, 08:51 PM
Austin is back on twitter, promising to prove doubters wrong. No news on where these doubters are going to be put to rest yet.

buzz
03-18-2012, 09:11 PM
Austin is back on twitter, promising to prove doubters wrong. No news on where these doubters are going to be put to rest yet.

Didn't see the doubters reference, but here's Austin's latest tweet (March 17th):
"Last nght was disappointing, but we're a young team and with a little more experience and preparation, next year who knows how far we could go."

BD80
03-18-2012, 09:21 PM
Didn't see the doubters reference, but here's Austin's latest tweet (March 17th):
"Last nght was disappointing, but we're a young team and with a little more experience and preparation, next year who knows how far we could go."

Sounds too good to believe. Me likey.

DukeGirl4ever
03-18-2012, 09:22 PM
Didn't see the doubters reference, but here's Austin's latest tweet (March 17th):
"Last nght was disappointing, but we're a young team and with a little more experience and preparation, next year who knows how far we could go."

Where did you find that?

The last tweet I have from Austin is the one that was posted in this thread previously.

Prior to that, his last tweet was Jan. 29th.

Dukehky
03-18-2012, 09:27 PM
The tweet came from @AustinRivers_0, which I don't think is his real account, his is AustinRivers_25. It was too good to be true.

zack2014
03-18-2012, 09:27 PM
Where did you find that?

The last tweet I have from Austin is the one that was posted in this thread previously.

Prior to that, his last tweet was Jan. 29th.

I also saw the referenced tweet. I'm not sure this is his actual twitter though. http://twitter.com/#!/austinrivers_0

El_Diablo
03-18-2012, 09:29 PM
Where did you find that?

The last tweet I have from Austin is the one that was posted in this thread previously.

Prior to that, his last tweet was Jan. 29th.

Austin Rivers ‏ @AustinRivers25
I will prove doubters wrong..!
8:42 PM - 18 Mar 12 via Echofon · Details


The other twitter account (AustinRivers_0) is not Austin's.

1 24 90
03-18-2012, 09:31 PM
So now my question is: have any of the other Duke players (that we expect to be back) resumed their twitter activity?

subzero02
03-18-2012, 09:32 PM
Well if he doesn't return for next season that tweet is a HUGE tease... HUGE. FYI, you really can't test the waters anymore because the NCAA deadline for withdrawing ones name for the draft is before the NBA's early entry date

uh_no
03-18-2012, 09:32 PM
Austin Rivers ‏ @AustinRivers25
I will prove doubters wrong..!
8:42 PM - 18 Mar 12 via Echofon · Details

really doesn't tell much...i think he wants to come back....but could mean "i will prove them wrong in the NBA"

here we go overanalyzing teenager's tweets again!!

DukeGirl4ever
03-18-2012, 09:33 PM
I also saw the referenced tweet. I'm not sure this is his actual twitter though. http://twitter.com/#!/austinrivers_0

Yea, that's not his real twitter account.

Try this:
https://twitter.com/#!/AustinRivers25

Sounds like the other one is trying to suck us all in!

Newton_14
03-18-2012, 09:33 PM
Does anyone know when the withdrawal deadline is? It says April 29th on NBA.com, but I thought I'd read that it was somewhere around April 10-12 this year, which would not allow prospects to test the waters. Did the ACC/NCAA pass something along those lines, or did I make that up?

You know, I kind of forget that Mason Plumlee is already 22. I had kind of been assuming he'd come back to improve his stock Zeller-style, but that's a little worrying. Hopefully he keeps the faith...

For Duke there isn't one. Coach K has said on more than one occasion that he is not a fan of "testing the waters". If a Duke kid declares, K considers them gone. So, I imagine he works with Austin and Mason like he normally does, gathering data, and meeting with the families to discuss the merits of staying vs declaring. After that it becomes go or stay, no inbetween.

dukelifer
03-18-2012, 09:37 PM
Well if the goal is to get drafted then I guess he should leave. But he is nowhere near ready for the league. Shelden Williams was a BEAST of a center for Duke, he got drafted and I don't even know if he is in the league anymore. I just meant I think Mason never came to Duke with the intention of leaving early to get drafted. He came to get an education and play for Coach K. And honestly I don't think he would want to leave after getting put out in the first round either. I could be wrong about all of this, I guess time will tell.

Shelden has done just fine in the NBA -got his second contract and is a solid player for NJ at the moment- and he married Candace Parker and had a baby with her. Mason would be a happy camper if he has an equivalent outcome with his career and life.

Billy Dat
03-19-2012, 05:16 PM
FWIW, ESPN's draft expert Chad Ford just published his NCAA Rounds 1&2 NBA Stock Watch column. He bucketed everyone as "Good" or "Bad" and Mason was honorable mention in the "Good" bucket while Seth Curry was honorable mention in the "Bad". Austin was not mentioned. He bases his ratings on conversations with NBA scouts.

I think that Duke's lack of focus on traditional low post offense actually helps our guys who put up decent stats. They look at someone like Mason, see what a good season he had and wonder what he could do if he played somewhere that made him a real focal point of the offense. There is a lot of room in the NBA for 6'10" guys that can run and jump which is why I think Miles will get a real look. As for Mason, I think he's a sure first rounder this year and will only come back if he wants another year of the college experience.

As for Austin, I think we're in kind of a several year lull for high impact PGs and SGs. While their is a ridiculous number of superstar point guards in the NBA right now, the shooting guard position is just as weak. Scanning the draft forecasts for this year and next, there are a ton of quality 3s and 4s and relatively few 1s and 2s. I think it would do Austin a lot of good to come back as a captain and get a real chance to be the acknowledged leader of the team. But, it's important to remember that his life has been all about the NBA...he's been around the NBA game, not the college game, his whole life. In that way, being at Duke was kind of an outlier - by headed to the NBA, he'd really be "going back home". I hope he'd stay to absorb K's teachings, and to get reps as "the man". Getting "the man" reps, I think, really helps a guy take his game to the next level because it fuels that confidence.

MCFinARL
03-19-2012, 05:26 PM
Yea, that's not his real twitter account.

Try this:
https://twitter.com/#!/AustinRivers25

Sounds like the other one is trying to suck us all in!

It's kind of interesting--usually Twitter tries to police this kind of thing with anyone considered "famous" but I don't know whether college athletes count. I assume if Austin asked them to they would remove the fake account.

dcar1985
03-19-2012, 05:47 PM
So now my question is: have any of the other Duke players (that we expect to be back) resumed their twitter activity?

Mike is the only other player I've seen to resume tweeting....this was his first tweet after losing to Lehigh..

Mike Gbinije ‏ @TheRealGbinije
gotta make the most of this off season and get hungry

DukeGirl4ever
03-19-2012, 05:55 PM
It's kind of interesting--usually Twitter tries to police this kind of thing with anyone considered "famous" but I don't know whether college athletes count. I assume if Austin asked them to they would remove the fake account.

I'm not sure, but the other account claims to be twitter verified, and I'm pretty sure that one's not Austin (the one with AustinRivers0).
That account had a lot of tweeting, and I mean A LOT, between February and March when the team decided to give up Twitter.

If you do a twitter search, there are actually a ton of Austin Rivers pages, but a lot of them say they are fan pages and not the real account. I wonder how they get deleted.

Austin's latest tweet is a bit interesting.


Billy Dat
FWIW, ESPN's draft expert Chad Ford just published his NCAA Rounds 1&2 NBA Stock Watch column. He bucketed everyone as "Good" or "Bad" and Mason was honorable mention in the "Good" bucket while Seth Curry was honorable mention in the "Bad". Austin was not mentioned. He bases his ratings on conversations with NBA scouts.

Can you explain what that means that Austin wasn't mentioned?

Greg_Newton
03-19-2012, 06:27 PM
I'm not sure, but the other account claims to be twitter verified, and I'm pretty sure that one's not Austin (the one with AustinRivers0).
That account had a lot of tweeting, and I mean A LOT, between February and March when the team decided to give up Twitter.

Yeah, the one you're referring to isn't real (as you suspect). "Twitter Verified" is a blue badge on the profile; that profile just typed "TWITTER VERIFIED!!!!!" in the description field.

Strange that Mason is on the "good" list in the stock-watch. What has he done since mid-season to warrant any sort of boost? He's been a solid all-around player for us, but he was our best player in December, had reliable post moves, and was going toe-to-toe with guys like Robinson and Sullinger. Not so much in February/March.

Billy Dat
03-19-2012, 06:28 PM
Can you explain what that means that Austin wasn't mentioned?

I guess Ford didn't find that his draft stock was helped or hurt by his performance in the NCAA tournament.

SoCalDukeFan
03-19-2012, 06:32 PM
From Austin

"There are going to be those people in your life who say you can't do something.. Use them as motivation, and make them look stupid!"

Well, maybe there are those who told Austin that he can not lead a college team to a NCAA Championship.

Of course, it more likely that there are those who told Austin he is not ready for the NBA.

Make of it what you may.

SoCal

DukeGirl4ever
03-19-2012, 06:35 PM
I guess Ford didn't find that his draft stock was helped or hurt by his performance in the NCAA tournament.

Gotcha!
I didn't take a look at his stuff and I don't really follow him, so I didn't know if he was looking at all season or looking at possible draft entries.

That does make sense.

I agree with Greg that I'm surprised Mason is on there even if it's in the honorable mention category.


FWIW, I just got this weird vibe today that we get Austin back and not Mason (contrary to what everyone's been thinking). However, the most I've ever won in this lifetime is $100, so I wouldn't put much stock in that.

subzero02
03-19-2012, 07:39 PM
This year's draft is going to be overly saturated with talent due to so many prospects deciding to remain in college one extra year( henson,zeller, barnes, sullinger, jones III, and terrence jones come to mind)... All of those players will go ahead of Mason IMO; this might be enough to make waiting around one more year the best option financially and developmentally.

moonpie23
03-19-2012, 10:00 PM
This year's draft is going to be overly saturated with talent due to so many prospects deciding to remain in college one extra year( henson,zeller, barnes, sullinger, jones III, and terrence jones come to mind)... All of those players will go ahead of Mason IMO; this might be enough to make waiting around one more year the best option financially and developmentally.

what makes you think henson and barnes are going?

dukelifer
03-19-2012, 10:05 PM
what makes you think henson and barnes are going?

Aren't they are winning a national championship- now that Marshall is 12 hrs past surgery and already practicing with the team ;)

CA Cameron Crazie
03-19-2012, 11:08 PM
I'm not sure, but the other account claims to be twitter verified, and I'm pretty sure that one's not Austin (the one with AustinRivers0).
That account had a lot of tweeting, and I mean A LOT, between February and March when the team decided to give up Twitter.

If you do a twitter search, there are actually a ton of Austin Rivers pages, but a lot of them say they are fan pages and not the real account. I wonder how they get deleted.

Austin's latest tweet is a bit interesting.



Can you explain what that means that Austin wasn't mentioned?


From his tweets alone, I gather that Chad Ford is not a fan of Austin's at all. He even quoted Coach K saying that McCollum was the best player on the court and followed it with an uncalled for suggestion that "somewhere Austin Rivers is crying" because of that statement. It'll take a lot to get him on the "good" list but his not-so-great and not-so-bad 19 pt performance didn't warrant a place on the "bad" list either.

chazz101s
03-20-2012, 08:44 AM
Will Avery?

Or am I the only Duke b-ball fan who still laments the assinineness of Will Avery's going pro early?

(Hey, my first post here--be kind ;-) Great to find, at long last, this site where real Blue Devil fans dwell and remember and predict!)

Cheers,
Chaz

superdave
03-20-2012, 08:49 AM
Will Avery?

Or am I the only Duke b-ball fan who still laments the assinineness of Will Avery's going pro early?

(Hey, my first post here--be kind ;-) Great to find, at long last, this site where real Blue Devil fans dwell and remember and predict!)

Cheers,
Chaz

That's not a good comparison really. I think Austin is a combo guard who has a lot more size and athleticism than Avery. Austin will make it in the league for a long while because he can play the 1 and the 2, he has improved drastically as a defender (and I expect more improvement), he's learning when to score and when to pass. He's got more passion and fire to both improve as a player and crush his opponents than 99% of players we see. Avery was a point guard who had a nice touch, but was not explosive enough to make it in the league. Austin's first step is elite.

chazz101s
03-20-2012, 09:04 AM
That's not a good comparison really.

Um, my point (perhaps I was being too oblique?) is that any player has a very hard improving his skills if he is sitting on the bench in the NBA.

(Plus, I will admit, I really liked Will Avery's game a LOT more than I do young Rivers' game. . . .)

ChillinDuke
03-20-2012, 09:04 AM
But, it's important to remember that his life has been all about the NBA...he's been around the NBA game, not the college game, his whole life. In that way, being at Duke was kind of an outlier - by headed to the NBA, he'd really be "going back home". I hope he'd stay to absorb K's teachings, and to get reps as "the man". Getting "the man" reps, I think, really helps a guy take his game to the next level because it fuels that confidence.

Let me preface my post by saying I have no idea how Austin thinks or how he looks at the NBA. But my impressions from this season is he is a basketball guy, not an NBA guy per se. He is on the record as wanting to come to Duke because it would push him and be the best place to learn and grow. I don't know that he necessarily wants to just go to the NBA. I get the vibe that he wants to do what is best for his long-term development, as I think he believes he can be a star and wants to become a star.

Now, I don't know that this means that college is the right place to pursue this. It might just as well be that the NBA is the right move. But I never thought Austin was in college just waiting to "go back home" so to speak.

Personally, his actions and the way his character has come off (at least in my view) seem to suggest that a mid-first round pick where he would likely sit on the bench for a year or two in the NBA is not Austin's preference. But again, I could be way off. Time will tell. I think it makes a lot of sense to play one more year.

- Chillin

superdave
03-20-2012, 09:11 AM
My perspective on Austin, which is probably buried in some other thread somewhere from three weeks ago, is that in order to become a top 10 pick by staying another year, he would have to be Duke's starting point guard. He would have to show pro scouts he can play point in order to become valuable enough, showing enough upside, to elevate himself in the draft considerably beyond the 15-20 range where he would likely go this June.

Because of Duke's roster - Quinn, Tyler, Seth - Austin will not play point at Duke next season. So his draft status probably would not change considerably if he stayed another year.

I understand that's not all that goes into this decision. But from a straight, dispassionate analysis, his draft stock is set in the 15-20 range and I would go pro if I were him. If he loves college that much, or really wants to go to a Final Four, then that's an emotional aspect to the decision that I'm not really qualified to comment on since I've never met then kid.

wilko
03-20-2012, 09:20 AM
No point to worrying about this.
Its impact to next years team, recruiting, team chemistry all that jazz. Its out of our control.

I trust these guys to do whats best for them. If that means going; fine... Good Luck and God bless.
Do both have things to work on?, yes.
Can they make someones roster anyway?, most likely.
Will they be an "impact" addition to someones franchise?, not likely at this time.

I've become somewhat jaded.
I'll pull for the guys who suit up next year regardless of who they are and not worry about it till that time....

weezie
03-20-2012, 09:40 AM
Or am I the only Duke b-ball fan who still laments the assinineness of Will Avery's going pro early?

I've lamented all of them with the exception of McBob. Unfortunately, lamenting wears you out after a while. I'll be saddened if AR or Mason leave but as wilko says,


.
I've become somewhat jaded.
I'll pull for the guys who suit up next year regardless of who they are

MCFinARL
03-20-2012, 09:57 AM
No point to worrying about this.
Its impact to next years team, recruiting, team chemistry all that jazz. Its out of our control.

I trust these guys to do whats best for them. If that means going; fine... Good Luck and God bless.
Do both have things to work on?, yes.
Can they make someones roster anyway?, most likely.
Will they be an "impact" addition to someones franchise?, not likely at this time.

I've become somewhat jaded.
I'll pull for the guys who suit up next year regardless of who they are and not worry about it till that time....

This seems like the key point for both Mason and Austin. Either could improve his draft status a little or hurt it a little (barring injury, God forbid), by staying, but significant changes aren't likely. Both will almost certainly learn and improve over the course of the next year whether they stay or go. So the decision may come down to whether they would rather do that learning while getting lots of PT and also going to college or while mostly sitting on the bench but practicing against NBA-level players instead of college-level, and of course getting a big paycheck. There are things to be said for both choices. The answers may turn on personal factors more than professional ones.

And I agree--the best to them either way; the team next year will be who they are, and either way they will no doubt take us fans on an interesting journey.

COYS
03-20-2012, 10:10 AM
This seems like the key point for both Mason and Austin. Either could improve his draft status a little or hurt it a little (barring injury, God forbid), by staying, but significant changes aren't likely. Both will almost certainly learn and improve over the course of the next year whether they stay or go. So the decision may come down to whether they would rather do that learning while getting lots of PT and also going to college or while mostly sitting on the bench but practicing against NBA-level players instead of college-level, and of course getting a big paycheck. There are things to be said for both choices. The answers may turn on personal factors more than professional ones.

And I agree--the best to them either way; the team next year will be who they are, and either way they will no doubt take us fans on an interesting journey.

I tend to agree with you about Mason's stock probably not likely to rise too significantly even with a great senior season, however I completely disagree about Austin. Austin has an NBA handle, NBA range on his jump shot and NBA quickness. What he lacks are NBA elite hops, NBA court vision, and an NBA midrange game. If he dramatically improves two of those three it will render his lack of elite NBA hops completely irrelevant. Also, I disagree with those who say he needs to play as a point guard at Duke to prove his NBA worthiness. He'll have the ball in his hands enough that if he gets better at creating for others as a two-guard, the NBA will take notice.

Now, all that being said I'm not necessarily saying Austin should come back to Duke for another season. I think there is no doubt he would benefit from coming back and I'd love to see him suit up in a Duke uni again. He had a special freshman season that has, unfortunately, been overshadowed a bit by the relative disappointment of the team's performance and certain parts of the media who assume that because Austin wasn't in the NPOY conversation he failed to live up to expectations. All that being said, people who go to the NBA before they're ready to be big stars get the opportunity to work on basketball full time and get paid for their efforts. Austin is a total gym rat. If he goes to the NBA he'll have even MORE time to work on his game. My guess is that the Austin Rivers we see a year and a half from now will be a much improved version of the player he is right now whether he put in his work at Duke or for an NBA team.

dukeballboy88
03-20-2012, 10:11 AM
Rivers was the best 2 guard in the country and I think his game is more ready for the NBA than college. Now If he can learn to see the floor better and jump his assist average to around 6 a game like JWill and carry Duke to a final four, he could easily jump to the to 5. This is why I think he could benefit learning the game 1 more year under K.

I see the comparisons of Jayson Williams Coach K talked about and and Rivers has better size and that makes him NBA ready. Rivers is a special player that can make his teammates better if he learns to see the floor. Duke would be unstoppable if AR avg 6 or 7 assist a game.

Matches
03-20-2012, 10:21 AM
Um, my point (perhaps I was being too oblique?) is that any player has a very hard improving his skills if he is sitting on the bench in the NBA.



Sorry, but I don't think that's true at all. Practicing every day against the best players in the world is, for many, an outstanding way to improve their game. Every player is different, of course, but the notion that players don't improve once they reach the NBA is disproved by the large number of players who have improved their games while in the NBA.

Avery has been cited as a guy who "left too early", but it's equally plausible that he just wasn't an NBA talent, and that he left at exactly the right time i.e. when he was in a position to parlay a terrific sophomore season into a lottery pick.

unexpected
03-20-2012, 10:44 AM
Rivers was the best 2 guard in the country and I think his game is more ready for the NBA than college.

This is an example of Duke goggles!

Li_Duke
03-20-2012, 10:49 AM
Avery has been cited as a guy who "left too early", but it's equally plausible that he just wasn't an NBA talent, and that he left at exactly the right time i.e. when he was in a position to parlay a terrific sophomore season into a lottery pick.

Except he wasn't in the lottery; he was drafted just out of it at #14 by the Timberwolves. He could have gone much lower if NBA GMs weren't infatuated with Duke players at the time. That draft was heavy on PGs with Francis, Davis, Miller, and Terry all ahead of Avery on the draft board. As the Timberwolves also had Terrell Brandon and Chauncey Billups, Avery didn't get off the bench much and never made it to a 2nd contract. If he had waited a year, the 2000 draft was much weaker at PG. Kenyon Dooling at #10, Mateen Cleaves at #14, Speedy Claxton at #20, Erick Barkley at #28 were the only ones to go in the first round. That draft overall was weak. I think he could have been a mid-lottery pick and ended up with a team much more dedicated to developing him.

Then again, Avery came from a poor background and that certainly factored into his decision to go pro.

azzefkram
03-20-2012, 10:57 AM
This is an example of Duke goggles!

Couldn't agree more. Austin has the potential to be a very good pro but is still very much a work in progress.

azzefkram
03-20-2012, 10:59 AM
Except he wasn't in the lottery; he was drafted just out of it at #14 by the Timberwolves. He could have gone much lower if NBA GMs weren't infatuated with Duke players at the time. That draft was heavy on PGs with Francis, Davis, Miller, and Terry all ahead of Avery on the draft board. As the Timberwolves also had Terrell Brandon and Chauncey Billups, Avery didn't get off the bench much and never made it to a 2nd contract. If he had waited a year, the 2000 draft was much weaker at PG. Kenyon Dooling at #10, Mateen Cleaves at #14, Speedy Claxton at #20, Erick Barkley at #28 were the only ones to go in the first round. That draft overall was weak. I think he could have been a mid-lottery pick and ended up with a team much more dedicated to developing him.

Then again, Avery came from a poor background and that certainly factored into his decision to go pro.

Jay Williams might of had something to do with it as well.

Olympic Fan
03-20-2012, 11:03 AM
Sorry, but I don't think that's true at all. Practicing every day against the best players in the world is, for many, an outstanding way to improve their game.

Cue Allen Iverson: "Practice? PRACTICE?!"

The NBA does practice preseason, but becaue of the number of games during the season and the travel, there is actually very, very little in-season practice. Most of the rare practices that are held are more like walk-throughs or shootarounds -- not the kind of thing where a young player can test himself against the best players in the world.

Talked to an ex-NBA bench rider who complained about how hard it was to stay in shape ... you couldn't work out hard because you might get called on to play in a game, and if that happened you had to seize the chance. The season becomes a constant struggle to get enough work in to keep your game sharp when you weren't playing and couldn't practice.

Players do improve, but rarely over the course of a season in which they are not playing. If they are going to develop, they have to do it in the offseason -- working alone and not in a structured setting or in preseason, when their coach is more concerned about putting together a team rather than individual player development.

I am one of those who believes that Avery needed another year to refine his game at Duke before being thrown into an NBA situation where he never got a chance to play or develop. He did come from a poor background and needed the money to help his mother, who was on disability. In those terms, he made $2.4 million on his first contract before he was out of the league.In financial terms, he earned one big payday, whih is what he wanted. basketball wise, it was a disastrous decision.

Li_Duke
03-20-2012, 11:03 AM
In my opinion, Austin Rivers should stay. He's improved a lot at Duke in his 1 year, but he certainly hasn't maxed out. There's no reason to think that he wouldn't continue to improve at a high rate at Duke. If he goes, I think he'll also improve at a high rate in the NBA, but he won't get consistent playing time his first year or two - especially since the teams drafting him would be playoff teams. I don't think he's the type to be happy sitting on the bench. Much better to stay at Duke, improve, get lots of playing time, and leave once he's improved his draft stock to the point where a team would be forced to play him.

From a basketball standpoint, Mason should go. He's a first round pick now; he's unlikely to improve his draft stock next year (just look at how many big men are in next year's freshman class - some of them will be one-and-done) unless he improves drastically. Right now, the perception is that he still has some potential and that he could be better on a team with a different system. That perception could change by next year.

superdave
03-20-2012, 11:16 AM
Beal is listed at 6-3, 207 and 6'7'' wingspan. Austin is listed at 6-4, 200, 6'7'' wingspan.

Beal averaged 14.6 points on 43% field goals and 33% on 3's in 34 minutes. He averaged over 6 boards and 2 assists. He scored 20+ 5 times this season so far (still playing).

Rivers averaged 15.4 points on 43% field goals and 36% on 3's in 33 minutes. He averaged 3 boards and 2 assists. He scored 20+ 8 times this season.

So it sounds like they are pretty even, although Austin may have had a few more big games.

But when you start talking draft, Beal is on Chad Ford's board at #4 and Austin #20. NBADraft.net has Beal at #8 and Austin at #11. Hoopshype.com has Beal at #7 and Austin at #9. DraftExpress has Beal at #7 and Austin at #16.

If you take the Real Clear Politics method and average them, Beal's at 6.75 and Austin is at 14.

That's a wide discrepancy for two players who are pretty similar in skill and size and stats this past season. Why is that? For one thing, Austin got a lot of negative press early in the season. Most of the articles were dumb because they came after about two weeks of the season, and Austin has improved considerably. The rebounding discrepancy tells me Beal might be stronger and more physical at this point.

Here's what some of the writeups say -

Beal - decent size for an NBA 2; good decision maker; inconsistent shooting #s; good jumper off the dribble; not an elite athlete; undersized/tweener; played with other ball-dominant guards this year which didnt help stats.

Austin - not a point guard; looks for iso too much; excellent pick-roll player; combo guard; adequate explosiveness; needs to become less selfish; no left hand; great floater; struggles off the ball.

Matches
03-20-2012, 11:17 AM
I am one of those who believes that Avery needed another year to refine his game at Duke before being thrown into an NBA situation where he never got a chance to play or develop. He did come from a poor background and needed the money to help his mother, who was on disability. In those terms, he made $2.4 million on his first contract before he was out of the league.In financial terms, he earned one big payday, whih is what he wanted. basketball wise, it was a disastrous decision.

I think that line of thinking requires an assumption that another year at Duke would have filled the holes in Avery's game that were exploited in the NBA. That's always possible, of course, but I think it's also possible that those flaws would have been exposed by another year in college. We've had players that certainly benefited from returning for an extra year, but we've had others who haven't. No way to know which camp Avery would have fallen into.

Kedsy
03-20-2012, 11:18 AM
Um, my point (perhaps I was being too oblique?) is that any player has a very hard improving his skills if he is sitting on the bench in the NBA.

I totally disagree with this. In the NBA, improvement happens in practice.

This year in the NBA, if you listen to the coaches when they talk about individual players and the extra-packed schedule, they talk about how hard it is for a player to get up to speed or improve because they aren't practicing very much.

To your other point, Will Avery was a short (listed at 6'2, but not really that tall) PG who was neither explosive enough nor a good enough shooter to start in the League. He was probably unwise to leave as early as he did because he needed more "PG savvy" and that's easier learned in college than in the pros. Austin Rivers is a decent-sized combo guard who has a good handle for a SG and a good shot for a PG. He should have a much easier time making it in the NBA than Avery did.



EDIT: I see Olympic Fan disagrees with me about NBA practices. I usually defer to his wisdom, so I'll admit it's possible he's right about this. It's certainly true this year, with the condensed schedule, but I will say it's not what I've heard in previous years. Although it's very possible I've heard wrong.

Class of '94
03-20-2012, 11:28 AM
In my opinion, Austin Rivers should stay. He's improved a lot at Duke in his 1 year, but he certainly hasn't maxed out. There's no reason to think that he wouldn't continue to improve at a high rate at Duke. If he goes, I think he'll also improve at a high rate in the NBA, but he won't get consistent playing time his first year or two - especially since the teams drafting him would be playoff teams. I don't think he's the type to be happy sitting on the bench. Much better to stay at Duke, improve, get lots of playing time, and leave once he's improved his draft stock to the point where a team would be forced to play him.

From a basketball standpoint, Mason should go. He's a first round pick now; he's unlikely to improve his draft stock next year (just look at how many big men are in next year's freshman class - some of them will be one-and-done) unless he improves drastically. Right now, the perception is that he still has some potential and that he could be better on a team with a different system. That perception could change by next year.

I don't get that perception in which Mason could be better on a team with a different system because K doesn't have a specific system on offense. K molds his "system" to fit and maximize the talents of the players on the team each year; and I think K tried to feature Mason, especially at the beginning of the season; but Mason started playing inconsistently as the team wen through the season. Just my opinion, I think Mason would benefit as a player (and aid increasing the chances of having a long and successful NBA career) to stay and work on his consistency and post skills reagardless of whehter or not his draft status improves. Not to go off a tangent or sound like I'm ranting, but I'm getting tired of kids being short-sided and focused on the NBA as underclassmen when they are not ready for the NBA (in terms of making an instant impact to a team right away). Isn't it better to prepare and position oneself to receive a big "second" contract since the first (rookie) contract is already predetermined; and wouldn't it be better for Mason to focus on making dramatic improvement (which I think he can still do) so that worst case he duplicates Boozer and get a big second contract if he isn't drafted as a high first round or lottery pick?

Matches
03-20-2012, 11:42 AM
Not to go off a tangent or sound like I'm ranting, but I'm getting tired of kids being short-sided and focused on the NBA as underclassmen when they are not ready for the NBA (in terms of making an instant impact to a team right away). Isn't it better to prepare and position oneself to receive a big "second" contract since the first (rookie) contract is already predetermined

Maybe - probably so for some guys. For some guys it may be better to begin their careers a year earlier, and reach that second contract a year earlier.

Not every NBA player gets judged by his rookie season. If that was the case J.J. Redick would be out of the league by now.

CDu
03-20-2012, 11:49 AM
Jay Williams might of had something to do with it as well.

Which would be unfortunate if that played into Avery's decision. I see no reason that both couldn't have played together, sharing the PG duties like Williams did in 2001 with Duhon.

In fact, if we have a starting 5 of Avery, Williams, Carrawell, Battier, and Boozer with Dunleavy, James, and the triad of spot-minute bigs in Sanders, Christensen, and Horvath off the bench, I think we'd have had a really good shot at winning a national championship. Oh well.

Hopefully Rivers and Mason decide to come back. We could use them, for sure.

subzero02
03-20-2012, 11:49 AM
Beal is listed at 6-3, 207 and 6'7'' wingspan. Austin is listed at 6-4, 200, 6'7'' wingspan.

Beal averaged 14.6 points on 43% field goals and 33% on 3's in 34 minutes. He averaged over 6 boards and 2 assists. He scored 20+ 5 times this season so far (still playing).

Rivers averaged 15.4 points on 43% field goals and 36% on 3's in 33 minutes. He averaged 3 boards and 2 assists. He scored 20+ 8 times this season.

So it sounds like they are pretty even, although Austin may have had a few more big games.

But when you start talking draft, Beal is on Chad Ford's board at #4 and Austin #20. NBADraft.net has Beal at #8 and Austin at #11. Hoopshype.com has Beal at #7 and Austin at #9. DraftExpress has Beal at #7 and Austin at #16.

If you take the Real Clear Politics method and average them, Beal's at 6.75 and Austin is at 14.

That's a wide discrepancy for two players who are pretty similar in skill and size and stats this past season. Why is that? For one thing, Austin got a lot of negative press early in the season. Most of the articles were dumb because they came after about two weeks of the season, and Austin has improved considerably. The rebounding discrepancy tells me Beal might be stronger and more physical at this point.

Here's what some of the writeups say -

Beal - decent size for an NBA 2; good decision maker; inconsistent shooting #s; good jumper off the dribble; not an elite athlete; undersized/tweener; played with other ball-dominant guards this year which didnt help stats.

Austin - not a point guard; looks for iso too much; excellent pick-roll player; combo guard; adequate explosiveness; needs to become less selfish; no left hand; great floater; struggles off the ball.

Having seen both players on television numerous times, I can tell you that Beal is definitely stronger and stockier than Austin. His upper body is definitely more developed. In fact, aside from Corey Maggette, Beal is the most physically impressive(in terms of muscularity) perimeter oriented freshman I have seen play in person.

moonpie23
03-20-2012, 11:50 AM
i'll prolly get slammed for saying this, but, i think that nolan was a better player when he left duke than AR is now....take the name "rivers" off, and there's a different perception of him. I think he WILL be the man next year if he stays.......if he goes, he'll make $$$ and get lots of pine time...

imagine him guarding westbrook.....

superdave
03-20-2012, 12:00 PM
I'll prolly get slammed for saying this, but, i think that Nolan was a better player when he left Duke than AR is now....take the name "Rivers" off, and there's a different perception of him. I think he WILL be the man next year if he stays.......if he goes, he'll make $$$ and get lots of pine time...

imagine him guarding Westbrook.....

No, I think you are exactly right. Nolan could play point and distribute, play off the ball and move well, or take over one on one or via pick and roll. He had lots of options, and was an A+ defender to boot.

You make a good point about Austin guarding a guy like Westbrook. Austin needs to get physically stronger, to both body up on D and to finish stronger in the lane by absorbing contact.

Super "Took the liberty of capitalizing proper nouns in your quote above...." Dave

jv001
03-20-2012, 12:46 PM
i'll prolly get slammed for saying this, but, i think that nolan was a better player when he left duke than AR is now....take the name "rivers" off, and there's a different perception of him. I think he WILL be the man next year if he stays.......if he goes, he'll make $$$ and get lots of pine time...

imagine him guarding westbrook.....

Nolan was better his senior year than Austin was as a freshman. Nolan was a better defender, better shooter, better driver of the ball, better passer and the most important, he was a better leader. Austin can become as good a player as Nolan, but it will take at least one or two more years if he's up to putting in the work. GoDuke!

chazz101s
03-20-2012, 12:52 PM
The NBA does practice preseason, but becaue of the number of games during the season and the travel, there is actually very, very little in-season practice. Most of the rare practices that are held are more like walk-throughs or shootarounds -- not the kind of thing where a young player can test himself against the best players in the world.

Talked to an ex-NBA bench rider who complained about how hard it was to stay in shape ... you couldn't work out hard because you might get called on to play in a game, and if that happened you had to seize the chance. The season becomes a constant struggle to get enough work in to keep your game sharp when you weren't playing and couldn't practice.

Players do improve, but rarely over the course of a season in which they are not playing. If they are going to develop, they have to do it in the offseason -- working alone and not in a structured setting or in preseason, when their coach is more concerned about putting together a team rather than individual player development.

I am one of those who believes that Avery needed another year to refine his game at Duke before being thrown into an NBA situation where he never got a chance to play or develop. He did come from a poor background and needed the money to help his mother, who was on disability. In those terms, he made $2.4 million on his first contract before he was out of the league.In financial terms, he earned one big payday, whih is what he wanted. basketball wise, it was a disastrous decision.

Thank you for these insights (which do, of course, match my meager understanding of the NBA [not much of a fan of that league]).

And if Rivers averaged 2 assists a game, I am surprised. (Hey, I just watched the 1991-92 documentary of Laettner, Hurley, et al. the night after the 75-70 loss--my, what a diminished thing college b-ball has become.)

For the season, did Duke AVERAGE more turnovers a game than assists? (Certainly it was close--or slightly turnover weighted--during their end-of-season swoon.)

Yes, the NBA draft often magnifies potential over accomplishment (Scheyer undrafted, anyone?); however, would any NBA decision-maker actually think this of young Rivers based on his past year at Duke: He makes his teammates better???

AZLA
03-20-2012, 12:54 PM
No, I think you are exactly right. Nolan could play point and distribute, play off the ball and move well, or take over one on one or via pick and roll. He had lots of options, and was an A+ defender to boot.

You make a good point about Austin guarding a guy like Westbrook. Austin needs to get physically stronger, to both body up on D and to finish stronger in the lane by absorbing contact.

Super "Took the liberty of capitalizing proper nouns in your quote above...." Dave

I wouldn't disagree either. AR is good, but he has a lot of room to develop. Nolan played good D. He made decisions quicker and could pass well. When AR gets the ball the flow stops in the half court. The team waits to watch him make a move typically because he goes into NBA 1-on-1 mode. The defense can set and stay back. It would serve AR well to learn to stay moving constantly, work on his passing, work on the pick'n roll.

Matches
03-20-2012, 12:57 PM
Thank you for these insights (which do, of course, match my meager understanding of the NBA [not much of a fan of that league]).

And if Rivers averaged 2 assists a game, I am surprised. (Hey, I just watched the 1991-92 documentary of Laettner, Hurley, et al. the night after the 75-70 loss--my, what a diminished thing college b-ball has become.)

Yes, the NBA draft often magnifies potential over accomplishment (Scheyer undrafted, anyone?); however, would any NBA decision-maker actually think this of young Rivers based on his past year at Duke: He makes his teammates better???

Well then geez, why do we want him back at all?

AR was the best player on our team last year. If he returns, he will be our best player next year too. He may or may not be ready to make an impact on an NBA team but I think we have *plenty* of evidence (including Scheyer who you cite) that NBA GM's draft more on who they believe a kid will become than who he is at the time he's drafted.

Matches
03-20-2012, 12:58 PM
I wouldn't disagree either. AR is good, but he has a lot of room to develop. Nolan played good D. He made decisions quicker and could pass well. When AR gets the ball the flow stops in the half court. The team waits to watch him make a move typically because he goes into NBA 1-on-1 mode. The defense can set and stay back. It would serve AR well to learn to stay moving constantly, work on his passing, work on the pick'n roll.

I definitely agree than Nolan (as a senior) performed better than AR (as a frosh). Just not sure why that's an important comparison - Nolan as a senior was better than 99.9% of college players. I doubt anyone would seriously question the assertion that AR has room for improvement in his game - most players do.

gus
03-20-2012, 01:00 PM
And if Rivers averaged 2 assists a game, I am surprised.


2.1

surprise! (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/150/duke-blue-devils)

I think if his teammates had moved better without the ball, the number would have been higher.

Wander
03-20-2012, 01:00 PM
i'll prolly get slammed for saying this, but, i think that nolan was a better player when he left duke than AR is now....take the name "rivers" off, and there's a different perception of him. I think he WILL be the man next year if he stays.......if he goes, he'll make $$$ and get lots of pine time...


Why would you get slammed? Nolan is one of the most beloved players in recent school history, not to mention a serious national player of the year candidate his senior season.

superdave
03-20-2012, 01:05 PM
Austin #21, Mason #29. Four Uncers in the top 12.

dyedwab
03-20-2012, 01:09 PM
He may or may not be ready to make an impact on an NBA team but I think we have *plenty* of evidence (including Scheyer who you cite) that NBA GM's draft more on who they believe a kid will become than who he is at the time he's drafted.

Which honestly is what frustrates me about the NBA. Austin (and Mason) should make whatever decision they feel is best for what advances them in what they want to do. But when I think of players leaving school early, I used to think that the guys who should go were guys who could regularly dominate game at the college level (say, Elton Brand). But when Gerald Henderson went pro, I thought that was a borderline case of a guy who might or might not be ready.

Anyway, that's a long way of saying, the big question isn't whether they've done all the can at the college level, but will they improve more here or in the NBA. And I sure wish I had time to study that, because I'm not sure their is an obvious answer.

Matches
03-20-2012, 01:14 PM
Anyway, that's a long way of saying, the big question isn't whether they've done all the can at the college level, but will they improve more here or in the NBA. And I sure wish I had time to study that, because I'm not sure their is an obvious answer.

I think it's different for every player. Different guys thrive in different environments. The problem from our perspective is that we can only analyze the road that's traveled - the road not taken is always an unknown.

I made my peace a long time ago with the idea that the college and NBA games are different from one another, and that success in college (or lack thereof) doesn't always translate to similar results at the next level. I enjoy both the college and NBA games but they're completely different animals.

Kewlswim
03-20-2012, 01:16 PM
Hi,

I feel part of the woes of our team (yea, I know I didn't play on it, I just use those terms and am sorry if I offended anyone) were a decided lack of leadership. Physically Austin might be able to handle the NBA grind (though I think his body could stand getting stronger), but I don't think he is mentally mature enough--in terms of being a leader or really even how to defer properly--to be a good NBA player. He might grow into it. Kobe Bryant sure got better as a leader as time went on, but my oh my, if Coach K had him at Duke for 2 years I think he would have made a much better teammate and effective leader earlier in his career.

Mason, as much as it pains me to say this because I want him back, I don't feel has much to gain by staying. At least he seems to have learned to keep the ball over his head, something Miles never seemed to fully grasp the importance of. There is one intangible and that is Marshall. Something tells me that Mason and Marshall really want to play at Duke together. I don't know the Plumlee's financial situation. They might need the money and so going now makes a lot of sense. One more year might help Mason's leadership skills too, but if he didn't learn those in three years I don't think he will in four. I can't wait to see Marshall on the floor, something tells me he has more leadership skills than his two older brothers.

GO DUKE!

yancem
03-20-2012, 01:22 PM
2.1

surprise! (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/150/duke-blue-devils)

I think if his teammates had moved better without the ball, the number would have been higher.

Or in some cases shot better. I remember several drive n dishes/kicks that didn't end up in an assist because teammates either didn't handle the pass cleanly or just missed the open look. I think that the notion that Rivers didn't pass enough was true early in the season but clearly not true in the middle of the season and then slightly true in the last couple of weeks but I think that was because some of the other players just weren't shooting well and Rivers really wanted to win.

If he comes back, I would expect his assist numbers to go up next season. He will have more familiarity with the rest of the team and if MP2 comes back, he should have a great interior target.

Speaking of MP2, one thing to really think about is the potential implications of his late season improvements in free throw shooting. If he can can continue to improve from the line, that would drastically help his game in a number of ways. A) It would improve his scoring average because he wouldn't be missing as many foul shots B) he can be more aggressive because he can actually try to draw the foul instead of trying to avoid it and C) and maybe more importantly, confidence in from the line should bolster confidence in the 12-18' jumper that is completely missing from his game. If he can his the mid range shot (like MP1) that makes guarding him much more difficult. It also decreases the pressure of getting him the ball close to the basket opening up his offensive game considerably. This is the area where a noticeable improvement could drastically improve his draft position.

NSDukeFan
03-20-2012, 01:32 PM
If poor is some sort of ghetto-slang synonym for really good, like ill is for tight or sweet then, yes, you are correct in your observation.

Paulus averaged 11.4 points, nearly 4 assists and hit a career-high 83 three-pointers during his junior season for Duke. While a Chris Duhon-level defender he was not, Paulus played with unrivaled heart, momentous effort and was often times the most vitally-important offensive player on the team due to his unlimited range and ability to take a game over from the outside. Paulus was absolutely deadly from 25 feet and in that year, nailing four or more threes on eight different occasions. He was our best shooter and, many times, most reliable scorer in big-game moments.

Without Paulus, we don't win in Chapel Hill in 2008 and suffer a spell of four years without a victory against the Heels. In that early February contest in the Dean Smith Center, he netted 18 points and dropped six threes in one of the more memorable shooting performances from any Blue Devil in the rivalry in recent years. It was a very coolheaded and J.J.-like display. Also, in the second round that March against West Virginia, it was the superior shooting of Paulus early that spurted Duke out to a double-digit lead in the first half. Things didn't end as we all would have liked, but Paulus was very much a positive factor in 2008 and, when I look back on his career in Durham, that junior season is a pretty fond memory.
I agree that Paulus sometimes gets a bad rap for the way his career ended, but he certainly had a lot of good moments in a Duke uniform (that UNC game deserves to always be remembered) and had a solid career. (8th all-time in 3 pt.%, 9th in assists, 10th in 3s made, 15th in steals, 1000 point scorer) He was certainly a favorite of mine.

No, I think you are exactly right. Nolan could play point and distribute, play off the ball and move well, or take over one on one or via pick and roll. He had lots of options, and was an A+ defender to boot.

You make a good point about Austin guarding a guy like Westbrook. Austin needs to get physically stronger, to both body up on D and to finish stronger in the lane by absorbing contact.

Super "Took the liberty of capitalizing proper nouns in your quote above...." Dave

I don't think there is any doubt that Senior Nolan was a better player than Freshman Austin for all the reasons superdave mentioned. Freshman Austin has, however, had one of the best freshman seasons in Duke men's basketball history. I expect he will be a very good pro and would not be sitting on the bench if he chose to go pro and get picked somewhere in the middle of the first round. I also think he will play as a combo guard or as a shooting guard in the NBA instead of as a point guard. I think this would be good for him, as there are more elite point guards in the league right now than elite shooting guards and he has not yet shown a great ability to create scoring opportunities for others. He has shown that he has an extremely quick first step that allows him to get by just about anyone one-on-one. He has also shown that he is a very good three point shooter with NBA range off the catch or off the dribble. He has shown that he is willing and able to defend, though he will certainly have to improve to defend at the NBA level.

I very much hope Austin returns to Duke and hope and expect he would continue to improve on the fabulous season he just had. If he decides to declare for the draft, I expect he will be another great ambassador for Duke basketball in the NBA and will become a very good player with a long career. I think either decision will be a good one.

I also think Mason has two good choices and will make a good decision whichever one he chooses. One skill that translates well from college to the NBA is rebounding and Mason certainly does that well. He runs the floor well, has continued to improve defensively, blocks some shots and showed great improvement as a post up threat this year. I certainly hope he returns to Duke and has a monster all-ACC senior season. If he chooses to start his career next year, I believe he also has the potential to have a long, successful NBA career. I expect it may take him a bit more time to develop a role than it would for Austin, but expect he will be a solid player. I hope he gets to compete against his older brother in the NBA for many years.

azzefkram
03-20-2012, 01:36 PM
Beal is listed at 6-3, 207 and 6'7'' wingspan. Austin is listed at 6-4, 200, 6'7'' wingspan.

Beal averaged 14.6 points on 43% field goals and 33% on 3's in 34 minutes. He averaged over 6 boards and 2 assists. He scored 20+ 5 times this season so far (still playing).

Rivers averaged 15.4 points on 43% field goals and 36% on 3's in 33 minutes. He averaged 3 boards and 2 assists. He scored 20+ 8 times this season.

So it sounds like they are pretty even, although Austin may have had a few more big games.

But when you start talking draft, Beal is on Chad Ford's board at #4 and Austin #20. NBADraft.net has Beal at #8 and Austin at #11. Hoopshype.com has Beal at #7 and Austin at #9. DraftExpress has Beal at #7 and Austin at #16.

If you take the Real Clear Politics method and average them, Beal's at 6.75 and Austin is at 14.

That's a wide discrepancy for two players who are pretty similar in skill and size and stats this past season. Why is that? For one thing, Austin got a lot of negative press early in the season. Most of the articles were dumb because they came after about two weeks of the season, and Austin has improved considerably. The rebounding discrepancy tells me Beal might be stronger and more physical at this point.

Here's what some of the writeups say -

Beal - decent size for an NBA 2; good decision maker; inconsistent shooting #s; good jumper off the dribble; not an elite athlete; undersized/tweener; played with other ball-dominant guards this year which didnt help stats.

Austin - not a point guard; looks for iso too much; excellent pick-roll player; combo guard; adequate explosiveness; needs to become less selfish; no left hand; great floater; struggles off the ball.

If I had to guess the discrepancy has significantly less to do with early press and more to do with Beal having a better year and, as you mentioned, Beal being stronger. If you look at advanced stats like PER, TS%, eFG%, USG% and so on, Beal was markedly better than Rivers. That doesn't mean that Rivers is a bad player, but it may help explain the discrepancy you are wondering about.

superdave
03-20-2012, 01:47 PM
If I had to guess the discrepancy has significantly less to do with early press and more to do with Beal having a better year and, as you mentioned, Beal being stronger. If you look at advanced stats like PER, TS%, eFG%, USG% and so on, Beal was markedly better than Rivers. That doesn't mean that Rivers is a bad player, but it may help explain the discrepancy you are wondering about.

Can you share those stats in comparison? I'd be interested. Is that KenPom stuff?

I suspect that Beal did not exactly have to carry as much of the load as Austin this year, although both led their teams in minutes. Boynton and Irving Walker had the ball in their hands more, whereas Austin became more of a playmaker as the season went on.

Also, Duke had a substantially better regular season with Austin as its #1 option than UF did with Beal as its #2 option. Hmmmm.

UrinalCake
03-20-2012, 01:52 PM
I am one of those who believes that Avery needed another year to refine his game at Duke before being thrown into an NBA situation where he never got a chance to play or develop. He did come from a poor background and needed the money to help his mother, who was on disability. In those terms, he made $2.4 million on his first contract before he was out of the league.In financial terms, he earned one big payday, whih is what he wanted. basketball wise, it was a disastrous decision.

I agree, and you could also say that it was a disastrous decision financially in the sense that had he stayed another year and developed, not only could he have been drafted higher and gotten more money in his first year, but he could have gotten a better chance at sticking in the league and continuing to make money. With that said, I don't know his personal situation and maybe waiting a year wasn't feasible. I think a lot of us forget how good Avery was even as a freshman and it's a shame he had to serve as a cautionary tale for early departures.

It's a gamble that these players make - leave too early and you risk riding the bench and never getting a chance to prove yourself. Leave too late and you could waste a year of income, or your stock could slip. I don't think Austin has much to lose by staying, except for the fact that this year's class is weak on point guards. But he has a lot that he could improve. In Mason's case though, I think he'd be better off going as he has more to lose than gain by staying (unfortunately for us).

azzefkram
03-20-2012, 02:03 PM
Can you share those stats in comparison? I'd be interested. Is that KenPom stuff?

I suspect that Beal did not exactly have to carry as much of the load as Austin this year, although both led their teams in minutes. Boynton and Irving Walker had the ball in their hands more, whereas Austin became more of a playmaker as the season went on.

Also, Duke had a substantially better regular season with Austin as its #1 option than UF did with Beal as its #2 option. Hmmmm.

Here's a link for Austin.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/austin-rivers-1.html

In the search field you can type in Beal's name. Hollinger does some stuff on ESPN as well but it is a royal PITA to find. Austin definitely had a higher usage rate than Beal but that just makes Beal's stats look better.

I agree with you about Duke's regular season but unfortunately we're home while FL is still playing. I can't speak for you but I'd rather have a worse regular season and still be in the tourney.

DukieinSoCal
03-20-2012, 02:25 PM
I don't think it's a matter of Austin being a selfish player. I doubt that he's a selfish person or player. I just don't think he has great basketball awareness. Whether by nature or nurture, he's programmed as a scorer, focused on getting points. He's definitely improved as a passer but it probably will never be second nature for him to look for his teammates when he has the ball in his hands. This is very different than being a selfish, me-first kind of teammate. I bet Austin would try to do anything that the coaches asked him to do.

COYS
03-20-2012, 02:29 PM
I'd also like to add that I don't think Josh or Gerald was a selfish player, either. There may have been attitude problems with Josh, but he wasn't selfish enough in terms of scoring. He was much better suited to being the number 3 or 4 option and facilitating others (he was a great passer at Duke). That team needed him to be a better scorer. Gerald, on the other hand, did have a bit of tunnel vision when he drove (he still does at the NBA level). However, he was always willing to do the dirty work on defense and was a great defensive player for Duke and is emerging as one of the best defensive SG in the NBA. Selfish players who have a me-first attitude don't put forth the effort on defense and rebounding that Gerald did.

MCFinARL
03-20-2012, 02:40 PM
I tend to agree with you about Mason's stock probably not likely to rise too significantly even with a great senior season, however I completely disagree about Austin. Austin has an NBA handle, NBA range on his jump shot and NBA quickness. What he lacks are NBA elite hops, NBA court vision, and an NBA midrange game. If he dramatically improves two of those three it will render his lack of elite NBA hops completely irrelevant. Also, I disagree with those who say he needs to play as a point guard at Duke to prove his NBA worthiness. He'll have the ball in his hands enough that if he gets better at creating for others as a two-guard, the NBA will take notice.

Now, all that being said I'm not necessarily saying Austin should come back to Duke for another season. I think there is no doubt he would benefit from coming back and I'd love to see him suit up in a Duke uni again. He had a special freshman season that has, unfortunately, been overshadowed a bit by the relative disappointment of the team's performance and certain parts of the media who assume that because Austin wasn't in the NPOY conversation he failed to live up to expectations. All that being said, people who go to the NBA before they're ready to be big stars get the opportunity to work on basketball full time and get paid for their efforts. Austin is a total gym rat. If he goes to the NBA he'll have even MORE time to work on his game. My guess is that the Austin Rivers we see a year and a half from now will be a much improved version of the player he is right now whether he put in his work at Duke or for an NBA team.

You may be right about Austin's draft prospects--I don't pretend to be an expert. But we agree on the bottom line--Austin will get better whichever choice he makes.

BD80
03-20-2012, 02:43 PM
Will Avery?

Or am I the only Duke b-ball fan who still laments the assinineness of Will Avery's going pro early?

(Hey, my first post here--be kind ;-) Great to find, at long last, this site where real Blue Devil fans dwell and remember and predict!)

Cheers,
Chaz

I prefer the term "assininity." Thus, one can refer to someone making such poor choices as an "assininny."

Cameron
03-20-2012, 03:22 PM
Rivers was the best 2 guard in the country and I think his game is more ready for the NBA than college. Now If he can learn to see the floor better and jump his assist average to around 6 a game like JWill and carry Duke to a final four, he could easily jump to the to 5. This is why I think he could benefit learning the game 1 more year under K.

I see the comparisons of Jayson Williams Coach K talked about and and Rivers has better size and that makes him NBA ready. Rivers is a special player that can make his teammates better if he learns to see the floor. Duke would be unstoppable if AR avg 6 or 7 assist a game.

I sure hope not, because Jayson Williams is a murderer and that would probably not be a positive trait for Austin to bring to the team.

Agreed wholeheartedly, however, about Austin needing to really improve his court vision. With a split second and slither of an opening, the kid is Kevin Johnson with the ball in his hands. Absolutely indefensible. However, I think because he is so crafty and good at getting in the vicinity of the rim on dribble penetration, Austin almost always believes he can, or should, utilize that skill and get two points out of it, every time, no matter what.

There are a couple of things wrong with that thought process. For starters, it often forces Austin to take incredibly difficult, body-twisting shots that, while perhaps more times than not makeable for him, are generally just terrible shots. Many times this wouldn't matter, because Austin is pretty good at drawing contact once deep inside the key, but it certainly matters when your free-throw shooting is somewhere between shocking and caravan accident. Those are a lot of wasted possessions. Austin, and the ball movement of the team (which this season was the worst I have seen it at Duke in 15 years), would be much better suited if he learned to choose his spots more carefully and used that defense-magnetizing dribble-drive to create open jump shots and backside slashing opportunities for his teammates. Rarely do I remember Austin passing out of the middle of the key. He's already good as is. If he were ever to develop eyes, he'd be lethal.

The coaches have to be addressing this, right?

luvdahops
03-20-2012, 03:58 PM
I sure hope not, because Jayson Williams is a murderer and that would probably not be a positive trait for Austin to bring to the team.

Agreed wholeheartedly, however, about Austin needing to really improve his court vision. With a split second and slither of an opening, the kid is Kevin Johnson with the ball in his hands. Absolutely indefensible. However, I think because he is so crafty and good at getting in the vicinity of the rim on dribble penetration, Austin almost always believes he can, or should, utilize that skill and get two points out of it, every time, no matter what.

There are a couple of things wrong with that thought process. For starters, it often forces Austin to take incredibly difficult, body-twisting shots that, while perhaps more times than not makeable for him, are generally just terrible shots. Many times this wouldn't matter, because Austin is pretty good at drawing contact once deep inside the key, but it certainly matters when your free-throw shooting is somewhere between shocking and caravan accident. Those are a lot of wasted possessions. Austin, and the ball movement of the team (which this season was the worst I have seen it at Duke in 15 years), would be much better suited if he learned to choose his spots more carefully and used that defense-magnetizing dribble-drive to create open jump shots and backside slashing opportunities for his teammates. Rarely do I remember Austin passing out of the middle of the key. He's already good as is. If he were ever to develop eyes, he'd be lethal.

The coaches have to be addressing this, right?


I would have to believe so. FWIW, if Austin stays, I would not be at all surprised to see the staff give serious consideration to (or at least experiment with) shifting him to the point, and pushing Austin to use his quickness and penetrating ability in exactly the fashion you describe. If successful, our offense could improve dramatically, even without Mason. Austin's NBA potential would surely increase, too, if he were viewed as having legit PG skills.

superdave
03-20-2012, 04:52 PM
I would have to believe so. FWIW, if Austin stays, I would not be at all surprised to see the staff give serious consideration to (or at least experiment with) shifting him to the point, and pushing Austin to use his quickness and penetrating ability in exactly the fashion you describe. If successful, our offense could improve dramatically, even without Mason. Austin's NBA potential would surely increase, too, if he were viewed as having legit PG skills.

Austin played about 34 minutes per game this year, and was barely subbed out the last month of the season. If he moves to to point guard, what do you do with Quinn Cook's 12 minutes per game, Tyler Thornton's 21 minutes or Seth Curry's 30 minutes? Do they move over to split the 2-guard duties? Where does Rasheed Sulaimon fit into that new rotation? Do you see Austin's minutes going down?

I think Austin, should he stay, will continue to play off the ball and on the wing. I could see him initiating the offense a fair amount once we get into some of our half-court sets. Because we have three other guards smaller than Austin who can all play the point, I do not see Austin moving over to the 1.

burnspbesq
03-20-2012, 04:59 PM
FWIW, Chad Ford's first pass at an NBA mock draft has Austin going to Houston at number 21 and Mason going to OKC at number 29. If that's an accurate indicator of the consensus of NBA front office opinion, I'd bet they both come back.

arnie
03-20-2012, 05:20 PM
FWIW, Chad Ford's first pass at an NBA mock draft has Austin going to Houston at number 21 and Mason going to OKC at number 29. If that's an accurate indicator of the consensus of NBA front office opinion, I'd bet they both come back.

For what it's worth (and maybe not much) local sports radio (Adam Gold and chronies) believe Austin is a lock to go this year with Mason 50:50. Of course they don't know anything specific, but it's interesting to get an opinion from a relatively neutral sports fan.

dcar1985
03-20-2012, 05:31 PM
Austin was thought of as a possible top 5 pick before the end of his senior year in HS....if the consensus is that he goes some where in the 20-25 range in the draft I just don't see how Austin or Doc or K would advise him that would be the best move. One more year would do a lot for his game and its not like the money is an issue.

Acymetric
03-20-2012, 05:34 PM
Austin played about 34 minutes per game this year, and was barely subbed out the last month of the season. If he moves to to point guard, what do you do with Quinn Cook's 12 minutes per game, Tyler Thornton's 21 minutes or Seth Curry's 30 minutes? Do they move over to split the 2-guard duties? Where does Rasheed Sulaimon fit into that new rotation? Do you see Austin's minutes going down?

I think Austin, should he stay, will continue to play off the ball and on the wing. I could see him initiating the offense a fair amount once we get into some of our half-court sets. Because we have three other guards smaller than Austin who can all play the point, I do not see Austin moving over to the 1.

There's no reason he couldn't spend some time at the 1 and some at the 2, freeing up time for Cook and Thornton at the 1. I honestly would prefer to keep Seth as a shooting guard next year unless he really steps up his point guard game.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-20-2012, 05:47 PM
For what it's worth (and maybe not much) local sports radio (Adam Gold and chronies) believe Austin is a lock to go this year with Mason 50:50. Of course they don't know anything specific, but it's interesting to get an opinion from a relatively neutral sports fan.

I would say the opinions and "insights" of the local sports radio, except for Dave Glenn, are worth very little. They just follow the template set at the beginning of the season(i.e. Austin is 1 & done, Barnes is the next MJ, the Plumlees are overrated, etc.). The question is are the local talking heads just that ignorant or just that lazy to not report actual news and offer original insight.

luvdahops
03-20-2012, 05:59 PM
Austin played about 34 minutes per game this year, and was barely subbed out the last month of the season. If he moves to to point guard, what do you do with Quinn Cook's 12 minutes per game, Tyler Thornton's 21 minutes or Seth Curry's 30 minutes? Do they move over to split the 2-guard duties? Where does Rasheed Sulaimon fit into that new rotation? Do you see Austin's minutes going down?

I think Austin, should he stay, will continue to play off the ball and on the wing. I could see him initiating the offense a fair amount once we get into some of our half-court sets. Because we have three other guards smaller than Austin who can all play the point, I do not see Austin moving over to the 1.

I would not expect Austin's minutes to go down appreciably. In my mind, Quinn is the only potentially better option at the point. Seth has shown he is not a viable option there. He was given the keys in the summar and early in the year, and was not up to the task. Seth is still a very valuable player for us, but he is much better at catching and shooting from the wing, or driving once an opening has been created through ball movement and/or penetration by others, than he is at initiating and creating himself.

I love Tyler, but honestly don't see him as more than a 10-15 mpg role player on a high caliber Duke team. He has shown the ability to guard bigger players (and probably defends them better than he does quick PGs), and with his offensive limitations, is probably better suited to being a defensive sparkplug and energy guy off the bench, albeit one who can be relied upon to make the occasional 3, and stick his free throws in late game situations.

I expect Sulaimon to battle Andre and Silent G for remaining wing minutes (note that I expect Alex M to be more of a 4 in our system, and to be Kelly's backup next year). I have not seen Rasheed play, but have seen him described as long-armed and spidery, and capable of defending bigger players.

If I had to peg it today, I might break it down roughly as follows: Austin and Seth at ~30mpg apiece, Quinn (17-18) and Tyler (12-13) combining for ~30, and the balance (~30) going to Rasheed, Andre and Mike, with 2 garnering the majority and likely seeing their minutes shrink a fair bit in tight games. That suggests a couple of things, including Austin and Quinn playing together some, and a greater than usual amount of mixing and matching in terms of combinations.

Keep in mind this is just a scenario, and a clearly hypothetical one at that. But I do think it has some merit. To me, the main thing that could scuttle this scenario would be for Quinn to make a big jump and clearly claim the PG spot (as a 25-30mpg starter), so that there would be no need for any experimentation. Things that could make it more likely include Silent G making a big jump, Andre regaining the coaches' faith and/or Rasheed being ready to make significant contributions right off the bat. Lots of variables, very little clarity. But I've been a Duke fan long enough to know that end of year rotations and roles do not necessarily carry over to the following season.

DukieinSoCal
03-20-2012, 06:26 PM
Although I love Austin's moxie and talent, I can't help wonder if we might be better off without him next year and going forward. Before everyone goes nuts on me, let me explain my reasons.
For one, I would love to see Quinn take over PG duties next year. I think his court vision and passing ability are ideal for the position. I think he could help create good looks and easy buckets for the rest of the team, both in the half-court and transition game. It seems like we really struggled getting easy looks for large stretches this year.
I don't know how much Austin could improve his off-the-ball game, but it seems like he is most effective when he dominates the ball. This makes me wonder if having him and Quinn on the floor together is the best pairing. I'm pretty sure Quinn would be able to get everyone involved more easily than Austin, who is not a true PG.
If Austin left, I see Rasheed being pushed into a bigger role next year, allowing him to develop faster. Rasheed might not be as good a penetrator as Austin, but he seems to be a better defender, a good shooter, and an excellent athlete, ideally suited to play a SG role. And I would bet he's just a better all-around athlete/basketball player than Seth or Dre or could quickly develop into that. Seth and Dre would be great sparkplugs coming off the bench but I'm not sure they're championship-level players as starters. Of coures, we might have to play a 3-guard lineup next year, anyways, but we'll see what happens with the development and recruitment of other guys.
Any thoughts?

lotusland
03-20-2012, 07:37 PM
i'll prolly get slammed for saying this, but, i think that nolan was a better player when he left duke than AR is now....take the name "rivers" off, and there's a different perception of him. I think he WILL be the man next year if he stays.......if he goes, he'll make $$$ and get lots of pine time...

imagine him guarding westbrook.....

I agree but the fact that we are even comparing AR's frosh yr to Nolan's POY candidate senior yr
says a lot about his potential vs Nolan's.

Gthoma2a
03-20-2012, 07:46 PM
I agree but the fact that we are even comparing AR's frosh yr to Nolan's POY candidate senior yr
says a lot about his potential vs Nolan's.

I don't think you can use Nolan as a growth chart for anyone. He had a ridiculous work ethic. He was a kid with a heart that was insanely large and he made progress that most won't be able to accomplish. Not saying Austin doesn't have these things too, but I don't like just giving in to anybody being equal to Nolan until I see that type of growth.

jv001
03-20-2012, 07:53 PM
Although I love Austin's moxie and talent, I can't help wonder if we might be better off without him next year and going forward. Before everyone goes nuts on me, let me explain my reasons.
For one, I would love to see Quinn take over PG duties next year. I think his court vision and passing ability are ideal for the position. I think he could help create good looks and easy buckets for the rest of the team, both in the half-court and transition game. It seems like we really struggled getting easy looks for large stretches this year.
I don't know how much Austin could improve his off-the-ball game, but it seems like he is most effective when he dominates the ball. This makes me wonder if having him and Quinn on the floor together is the best pairing. I'm pretty sure Quinn would be able to get everyone involved more easily than Austin, who is not a true PG.
If Austin left, I see Rasheed being pushed into a bigger role next year, allowing him to develop faster. Rasheed might not be as good a penetrator as Austin, but he seems to be a better defender, a good shooter, and an excellent athlete, ideally suited to play a SG role. And I would bet he's just a better all-around athlete/basketball player than Seth or Dre or could quickly develop into that. Seth and Dre would be great sparkplugs coming off the bench but I'm not sure they're championship-level players as starters. Of coures, we might have to play a 3-guard lineup next year, anyways, but we'll see what happens with the development and recruitment of other guys.
Any thoughts?

I'm not about to go nuts on you, but Austin was our only guard that was good at defending the guy with the ball. This years team was poor at creating turnovers and getting easy baskets. Team defense was not up to Duke standards even though we did improve by years end. Maybe Sheed will help in that regard. It starts with defense with Coach K. I was concerned with our ability defend last summer and it looks like I'll be concerned this off season as well. GoDuke!

OldSchool
03-20-2012, 07:53 PM
To me, one of the things that is most remarkable about Austin is his incredibly strong will to improve his game. By far, he appears to be the most driven on this team.

He made great improvement this year. When he turns his focus to improving his passing, court vision and defense, I can see him getting 5 assists a game next year as well as developing into a lock-down defender. The guy is very talented and very driven. If you want titles, that is the type of guy you want.

I would be thrilled if he came back next year and if I were the coach I'd give him 40 minutes a game (except in overtime games, when I'd give him even more minutes).

I suspect people may be subconsciously comparing him to Kyrie and wondering why, if he was so highly regarded coming out of high school he didn't play like Kyrie from day one and didn't make everyone around him better. The reason is he plays a different position and has a different skill set. But once he turns his drive to improving himself in additional areas like passing, it will happen.

InSpades
03-20-2012, 08:07 PM
To me, one of the things that is most remarkable about Austin is his incredibly strong will to improve his game. By far, he appears to be the most driven on this team.

He made great improvement this year. When he turns his focus to improving his passing, court vision and defense, I can see him getting 5 assists a game next year as well as developing into a lock-down defender. The guy is very talented and very driven. If you want titles, that is the type of guy you want.

I would be thrilled if he came back next year and if I were the coach I'd give him 40 minutes a game (except in overtime games, when I'd give him even more minutes).

I suspect people may be subconsciously comparing him to Kyrie and wondering why, if he was so highly regarded coming out of high school he didn't play like Kyrie from day one and didn't make everyone around him better. The reason is he plays a different position and has a different skill set. But once he turns his drive to improving himself in additional areas like passing, it will happen.

Couldn't agree more. He wasn't Kyrie, but there aren't many kids who are. He wanted to win and he was willing to work really really hard to get there. Combine that with a lot of natural talent... these are the types of kids we want and need at Duke. Does his decision-making need to improve? Sure. Are there parts of his game that weren't quite ready? Sure. But I'll take 5 Austin Rivers in my backcourt and take my chances. There's no addition by subtraction when you lose a kid like Austin. Just like there wasn't when we lost Gerald. There's no way we do better than win a National Championship w/ Gerald, but you won't convince me that we had a better shot to win one without than we did with him.

yancem
03-20-2012, 08:40 PM
I wonder how much different Rivers would be if he had transferred to a more loaded high school team for his senior year. I think that the biggest adjustment for him this year was transitioning from being the only real offensive option to a more team oriented offense. I don't think selfishness was ever an issue he just had never really had teammates to pass to. So he didn't have a need to develop better court vision or proper spacing. You can bet that these are things that he will work on in the off season. The kids has serious drive to get better.

One thing to keep in mind is that Irving will most like on campus over the summer taking classes and working out. Smith may also be on campus to working. I'm betting that Rivers will latch on to those guys and soak in everything he can. I remember Irving coach Smith from the side lines during games last year. I'm betting he could impart quite a bit of wisdom. (This would also be very beneficial for Cook who could learn the game for Irving and get his body i top shape with Smith).

moonpie23
03-20-2012, 09:51 PM
the point of my post re: nolan was to point out where the ability level lands you in the nba.....if AR jumps, he's likely to see the same view as nolan........from what i've seen/heard/read of austin, that's not where he wants to be....


he WANTS to be the man.......he won't be the man in the league next year.....he WILL be the man at duke...

subzero02
03-20-2012, 10:11 PM
I personally think Austin will stay... Doc and Austin's midseason comments about being satisfied with the challenges he faced due to choosing Duke over other schools was encouraging. I think the fact that he KNOWS he will continue to improve at Duke, along with a sense of unfinished business and a latter first round draft projection will wind up making Cameron Austin's home next year.

mgtr
03-20-2012, 10:29 PM
For what its worth (probably about 2 cents) I think both Austin and Mason will stay. It is a loaded draft year, and both could improve their situation by staying. Of course. either or both could worsen therir positions or get hurt. It is a puzzlement!

Matches
03-21-2012, 08:22 AM
the point of my post re: nolan was to point out where the ability level lands you in the nba.....if AR jumps, he's likely to see the same view as nolan........from what i've seen/heard/read of austin, that's not where he wants to be....


he WANTS to be the man.......he won't be the man in the league next year.....he WILL be the man at duke...

I don't think Nolan and AR have the same ability level. AR has, IMO, a significantly higher ceiling. Nolan is obviously the more accomplished college player, but I don't think anyone seriously expects him to become a star in the NBA. AR has that kind of talent - his play isn't at that level yet, but the potential is there. I agree he wouldn't be "the man" on an NBA team next year, but I think he'd be likely to see a bit more of the court than Nolan has this year. (Nolan had the added disadvantage of being drafted by a team that already had two capable PGs as well.)

stixof96
03-21-2012, 08:47 AM
I'm not blown away by AR..........sorry..........

Jderf
03-21-2012, 09:04 AM
I'm not blown away by AR..........sorry..........


I'm guessing that, in your eyes, this is because he simply hasn't displayed the all-important will to win.

superdave
03-21-2012, 09:15 AM
I'm guessing that, in your eyes, this is because he simply hasn't displayed the all-important will to win.

There were whole games this year where I thought Austin was the only one with that fire!

DukeFanSince1990
03-21-2012, 09:27 AM
There were whole games this year where I thought Austin was the only one with that fire!

Losing does not agree with him.

dukeballboy88
03-21-2012, 09:41 AM
This is an example of Duke goggles!


Rivers was the best 2 guard in the country and I think his game is more ready for the NBA than college.



Austin - not a point guard; looks for iso too much; excellent pick-roll player; combo guard; adequate explosiveness; needs to become less selfish; no left hand; great floater; struggles off the ball.

By reading this, my post on AR being more NBA ready than college couldnt be more correct. AND, if Brad Beal is all you got please tell me how this is an example of Duke goggles?

superdave
03-21-2012, 09:57 AM
By reading this, my post on AR being more NBA ready than college couldnt be more correct. AND, if Brad Beal is all you got please tell me how this is an example of Duke goggles?

So you think Austin is a better prospect than Brad Beal? If so, why?

I think Beal has the advantage of having a more NBA body. I think Austin's major disadvantage is not being as adept with his left hand. Beyond that, I think Austin has some intangibles that are really important. But I have not really watched Beal a whole lot so I cannot comment on his left hand or his work ethic and effort.

CDu
03-21-2012, 10:02 AM
So you think Austin is a better prospect than Brad Beal? If so, why?

I think Beal has the advantage of having a more NBA body. I think Austin's major disadvantage is not being as adept with his left hand. Beyond that, I think Austin has some intangibles that are really important. But I have not really watched Beal a whole lot so I cannot comment on his left hand or his work ethic and effort.

I think Rivers' other disadvantage is that he's really only shown the ability to play one style: isolation on the left with a high screen available attacking to his right. He's not shown the ability to create off the ball, he's not shown the consistent ability to attack left, and he's not shown great court vision. Despite the claims of a high basketball IQ, I'd actually say the opposite: he has phenomenal one-on-one skills and pure talent but a low basketball IQ (probably because he hasn't needed it - he has gotten by on pure talent).

In the NBA, he'll have it a little easier in that hand checking is more tightly called (so he'll get into the lane easier). But the size and athleticism of the defenders in the NBA is worlds different than in college. So he'll need to adapt his game further than he has to this point if he's going to succeed. I don't think he can get away with the 1-2 plays he ran this year for us.

Hopefully he comes back and really works on the other aspects of his game: decision making, going left, playing off the ball, court vision, setting up scoring opportunities for others. If he does so and is successful at it, it would be of great benefit to both Duke and himself.

DukeGirl4ever
03-21-2012, 10:19 AM
Despite the claims of a high basketball IQ, I'd actually say the opposite: he has phenomenal one-on-one skills and pure talent but a low basketball IQ (probably because he hasn't needed it - he has gotten by on pure talent).


I said this earlier in the year in one of my posts and someone was not happy with me (and gave consequent negative feedback). It's nice to see I wasn't out in left field with my thinking.

Honestly, people may not agree with it, but it's something to discuss.

Earlier in the year, I would agree with you that his bball IQ wasn't what it should have been being around the game his whole life. There were times when I felt he didn't read the defense and would just attack which is a scorer's mentality. Or, given the fact that he's been around the NBA game forever, that makes sense about his isolation and one-on-one skills.

The great thing about this year overall is I did see great improvement in his basketball IQ and that goes without saying - he plays for the master.
The key here is he could improve a lot more with another year of having Coach K in his ear.

sporthenry
03-21-2012, 10:31 AM
So you think Austin is a better prospect than Brad Beal? If so, why?

I think Beal has the advantage of having a more NBA body. I think Austin's major disadvantage is not being as adept with his left hand. Beyond that, I think Austin has some intangibles that are really important. But I have not really watched Beal a whole lot so I cannot comment on his left hand or his work ethic and effort.

I think Beal benefits from not being at Duke in the sense that not everything he does is critically analyzed. I have yet to see ESPN break down any play by Beal so he has the benefit of putting up several good games on national TV and being rated higher almost because people don't like what they see from Rivers. Additionally, it appears he is getting the benefit of the doubt and being rated on potential since he is playing with such a guard oriented lineup with Walker, Boynton, and Rosario.

Personally, I'm not sure how one is a combo guard and the other is a point guard. Perhaps it is because Beal projects as a better shooter but it appears some guys specifically Chad Ford really dislike Rivers for whatever reason. Although maybe Chad Ford is actually a Duke fan convincing scouts to rate him lower to bring him back to Duke. I think everyone recognizes the kid needs to learn to pass and see the game better. Give him and Mason a summer to work together and imagine once Rivers breaks down the defense being able to find an open big man.

As many have alluded to earlier, the NBA's practice schedule is not rigorous b/c of 82 games and looking at players like Avery Bradley who projected very similar to AR shows what can happen. The Celtics were very high on him coming into the year and the kid is starting to show potential but he was drafted around 24 and sat on the bench for a year. So he passed a year up of going after a national title and more money through a higher draft pick up to sit on a bench for 82 games. I guess we can argue about what gets you to the finish line quicker but I'd think the choice is fairly obvious.

superdave
03-21-2012, 10:55 AM
I think Beal benefits from not being at Duke in the sense that not everything he does is critically analyzed. I have yet to see ESPN break down any play by Beal so he has the benefit of putting up several good games on national TV and being rated higher almost because people don't like what they see from Rivers. Additionally, it appears he is getting the benefit of the doubt and being rated on potential since he is playing with such a guard oriented lineup with Walker, Boynton, and Rosario.

Personally, I'm not sure how one is a combo guard and the other is a point guard. Perhaps it is because Beal projects as a better shooter but it appears some guys specifically Chad Ford really dislike Rivers for whatever reason. Although maybe Chad Ford is actually a Duke fan convincing scouts to rate him lower to bring him back to Duke. I think everyone recognizes the kid needs to learn to pass and see the game better. Give him and Mason a summer to work together and imagine once Rivers breaks down the defense being able to find an open big man.

As many have alluded to earlier, the NBA's practice schedule is not rigorous b/c of 82 games and looking at players like Avery Bradley who projected very similar to AR shows what can happen. The Celtics were very high on him coming into the year and the kid is starting to show potential but he was drafted around 24 and sat on the bench for a year. So he passed a year up of going after a national title and more money through a higher draft pick up to sit on a bench for 82 games. I guess we can argue about what gets you to the finish line quicker but I'd think the choice is fairly obvious.

Chad Ford is not a talent evaluator. Most of his info comes from relationships with scouts and GMs. He is reporting their perspective, so what he writes about Austin is what the scouts are telling him.

dukeballboy88
03-21-2012, 11:18 AM
So you think Austin is a better prospect than Brad Beal? If so, why?

I think Beal has the advantage of having a more NBA body. I think Austin's major disadvantage is not being as adept with his left hand. Beyond that, I think Austin has some intangibles that are really important. But I have not really watched Beal a whole lot so I cannot comment on his left hand or his work ethic and effort.

Yes I do. If I were an NBA GM in need of a 2 and these came up, Id take AR all day. Now Ill be the first to say, I didnt watch many Florida games but I do know AR was ranked higher coming out of high school. I also know AR has the clutch gene that you cant coach, either you have it or not, and that bumps you up in my category. Also, AR got everybodys best shot and he still performed at a very high level. It was kids probly foaming at the mouth knowing they had Duke on the schedule just to prove he was overrated and Rivers rose to the occassion. I think he could be better than JWilliams at Duke if he would come back to school but if he dont, I completely understand because he is as ready as anybody else in the draft.

CDu
03-21-2012, 11:40 AM
I said this earlier in the year in one of my posts and someone was not happy with me (and gave consequent negative feedback). It's nice to see I wasn't out in left field with my thinking.

Honestly, people may not agree with it, but it's something to discuss.

Earlier in the year, I would agree with you that his bball IQ wasn't what it should have been being around the game his whole life. There were times when I felt he didn't read the defense and would just attack which is a scorer's mentality. Or, given the fact that he's been around the NBA game forever, that makes sense about his isolation and one-on-one skills.

The great thing about this year overall is I did see great improvement in his basketball IQ and that goes without saying - he plays for the master.
The key here is he could improve a lot more with another year of having Coach K in his ear.

Definitely agree that he's gotten much better as the season progressed. But I still see him as fairly one-dimensional in his mindset and how he gets his opportunities (he still seems to go straight to the isolation game, and he still doesn't seem to be effective off the ball). The offensive flow still seems to stop once he gets the ball. That is okay from time to time, but it can't be the only way things happen. Similarly, he can't be a non-factor whenever he doesn't get the ball.

Strangely, despite his obvious offensive prowess, I feel like defenses don't have to devote much focus on Rivers off the ball because he will just try to come to the ball and set up an isolation play anyway. Contrast that with a guy like Singler or Scheyer or Juan Dixon or Bryant Stith (just a few examples off the top of my head), who would look for any break they could to get an easy look off the ball in addition to their terrific on-ball scoring ability. If Rivers could improve in that area along with continued development of his playmaking skills, he'd be an even bigger force than he already is.

Des Esseintes
03-21-2012, 11:49 AM
I would not expect Austin's minutes to go down appreciably. In my mind, Quinn is the only potentially better option at the point. Seth has shown he is not a viable option there. He was given the keys in the summar and early in the year, and was not up to the task. Seth is still a very valuable player for us, but he is much better at catching and shooting from the wing, or driving once an opening has been created through ball movement and/or penetration by others, than he is at initiating and creating himself.

I agree with most of your post here, and I also agree it's rightfully unlikely Curry resumes point guard duty. But it's hardly unprecedented in recent history for Duke guards to be found wanting at the point one season only to flourish in the role later. Scheyer ended the season basically playing point each of his first three years, and only the final time did he get to keep the job the following November. Nolan was installed at point his sophomore year, couldn't do it, spent two entire years playing the two, and then took the job with terrific aplomb when Irving went down. Like you, I think Curry is probably best off the ball with a dynamic creator at the point, but we should remember that because the position is such a demanding one, sometimes people just take a while to mature into it.

azzefkram
03-21-2012, 11:50 AM
Yes I do. If I were an NBA GM in need of a 2 and these came up, Id take AR all day. Now Ill be the first to say, I didnt watch many Florida games but I do know AR was ranked higher coming out of high school. I also know AR has the clutch gene that you cant coach, either you have it or not, and that bumps you up in my category. Also, AR got everybodys best shot and he still performed at a very high level. It was kids probly foaming at the mouth knowing they had Duke on the schedule just to prove he was overrated and Rivers rose to the occassion. I think he could be better than JWilliams at Duke if he would come back to school but if he dont, I completely understand because he is as ready as anybody else in the draft.

As of today, I couldn't disagree with you more. A year or two from now will probably be a different story, but today Beal is significantly more ready for the NBA. Austin is not ready at this point. He struggles to finish in college. This will only get worse at the next level. Fortunately for Austin, he's is going to get some great advice as to his readiness for the next level from Coach K and his father along with their respective contacts. Most college players won't be so fortunate.

JMarley50
03-21-2012, 11:56 AM
This could be nothing, but I found it a little interesting. Austin has been tweeting again for a few days now. None of the other guys have. It may not seem like a big deal, but before the self imposed ban, Tyler, Josh, Seth and Quinn all tweeted just as much if not more than Austin. I find it interesting that the guys we know will be back next year are still silent and Austin is tweeting away with his usual "I'm gonna prove my haters wrong" type stuff. Seems to me like the group is still committed to something and Austin not so much. Maybe I'm stretching a little, but it was just a thought. What do you guys think?

Mike Corey
03-21-2012, 12:01 PM
I think, with respect, that you're stretching a bit.

The same result may occur, but I don't think you will be able to conclude as such via Tweets from some and not from others.

Jderf
03-21-2012, 12:08 PM
This could be nothing, but I found it a little interesting. Austin has been tweeting again for a few days now. None of the other guys have. It may not seem like a big deal, but before the self imposed ban, Tyler, Josh, Seth and Quinn all tweeted just as much if not more than Austin. I find it interesting that the guys we know will be back next year are still silent and Austin is tweeting away with his usual "I'm gonna prove my haters wrong" type stuff. Seems to me like the group is still committed to something and Austin not so much. Maybe I'm stretching a little, but it was just a thought. What do you guys think?

I think, with respect, that you're stretching a bit.

The same result may occur, but I don't think you will be able to conclude as such via Tweets from some and not from others.

Agree. Even if you are concluding something from a tweet with a direct statement, it's already iffy. Concluding something indirectly from general tweeting? That's some shaky ground. It is odd, though, I'll give you that.

1 24 90
03-21-2012, 12:42 PM
This could be nothing, but I found it a little interesting. Austin has been tweeting again for a few days now. None of the other guys have. It may not seem like a big deal, but before the self imposed ban, Tyler, Josh, Seth and Quinn all tweeted just as much if not more than Austin. I find it interesting that the guys we know will be back next year are still silent and Austin is tweeting away with his usual "I'm gonna prove my haters wrong" type stuff. Seems to me like the group is still committed to something and Austin not so much. Maybe I'm stretching a little, but it was just a thought. What do you guys think?

I have seen tweets from Cook and Gbinije too in the last few days and I just saw that Miles will be participating in the college slam dunk contest March 29th at 9 on ESPN!

stixof96
03-21-2012, 02:21 PM
There were whole games this year where I thought Austin was the only one with that fire!

i vote mason and tyler for that........

superdave
03-21-2012, 02:30 PM
I really do find this fascinating how much love he gets compared to Austin. Reminds me of both James Harden and Eric Gordon when they entered the draft.

Dan (Minneapolis)

Chad, which player(s) in the Sweet 16 can do the most for their draft stock?

Chad Ford
(1:32 PM)

A big game by Bradley Beal could propel him up a few more spots. Right now he's No. 4 on our Big Board, but I've had several GMs tell me in the past few days that he's their second favorite player in this draft. If they could hang their hat on a couple of big games down the stretch, he could get there. Obviously Perry Jones really needs to redeem himself after a tough first weekend in the tournament. If Dion Waiters keeps playing well, he could keep rising on our boards as well.

And another chat post -

Dave (Durham)
Rivers leaving or staying?

Chad Ford
(1:34 PM)

Not sure yet. But I think we may have him a little underrated on our Big Board. I'm starting to get the feel that GMs may like him a little better than the scouts do. His quick first step and overall aggressiveness appeal to them. He has a lot of work to do on his game, but they see potential there.

superdave
03-21-2012, 02:36 PM
Interesting stuff here (http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/43033)....

Bryden (Winnipeg)
Why are teams so high on Beal? Isn't he undersized for a SG?

Chad Ford
(1:57 PM)
A little. But he's got the complete package from a skills/athleticism/NBA body standpoint. He hasn't shot the ball great this year, but he really has potential as a shooter as well. Hard to see how he fails at the next level.


Chet (LA)
You definitely have Rivers too low. If you can drive the ball in todays NBA, you can score. Driving to the hole is essentially an automatic foul nowadays. Rivers is tailor made for todays NBA.

Chad Ford
(2:00 PM)
If he was an elite athlete, I'd totally agree with you. He's clearly modeled his game, demeanor, everything after Kobe. He has a ton of those moves and has the swagger. The difference is that Kobe was an all-world explosive athlete. That allows him to do things that Rivers tries to do, but isn't nearly as successful at. That will become even more apparent at the next level. For Rivers to have a really successful NBA career, he's going to have to drop the Kobe act and become a better shooter and really work on that floater. If he does that he'll be really effective. But I'm not sure he knows what he is and that has been, time and time again, a problem for players as they make the leap to the next level. It's why another year at Duke could really help him hone his game.

stixof96
03-21-2012, 02:38 PM
This could be nothing, but I found it a little interesting. Austin has been tweeting again for a few days now. None of the other guys have. It may not seem like a big deal, but before the self imposed ban, Tyler, Josh, Seth and Quinn all tweeted just as much if not more than Austin. I find it interesting that the guys we know will be back next year are still silent and Austin is tweeting away with his usual "I'm gonna prove my haters wrong" type stuff. Seems to me like the group is still committed to something and Austin not so much. Maybe I'm stretching a little, but it was just a thought. What do you guys think?

The tweet pretty much says it all doesn't it? He obviously realizes that there is a lot to prove yet, hence, I am going to prove others wrong. Am I missing something?

CDu
03-21-2012, 02:41 PM
Chad Ford
(2:00 PM)
If he was an elite athlete, I'd totally agree with you. He's clearly modeled his game, demeanor, everything after Kobe. He has a ton of those moves and has the swagger. The difference is that Kobe was an all-world explosive athlete. That allows him to do things that Rivers tries to do, but isn't nearly as successful at. That will become even more apparent at the next level. For Rivers to have a really successful NBA career, he's going to have to drop the Kobe act and become a better shooter and really work on that floater. If he does that he'll be really effective. But I'm not sure he knows what he is and that has been, time and time again, a problem for players as they make the leap to the next level. It's why another year at Duke could really help him hone his game.

I actually agree a lot with this. Rivers could still "out-athlete" most high school players. That, along with his polished moves made him dominant. He's been at times dominant as a college freshman, but he's finding that defenses are bigger, stronger, faster, and more disciplined in college. That only becomes more true in the NBA (despite what some people may think, the defense played in the NBA is really good). It's much harder to win those isolation battles without Kobe-like athleticism. It would do Rivers a world of good to expand his game a lot more in order to succeed at the next level.

stixof96
03-21-2012, 02:57 PM
By reading this, my post on AR being more NBA ready than college couldnt be more correct. AND, if Brad Beal is all you got please tell me how this is an example of Duke goggles?

First, I am getting attacked here a little for just giving my opinions. I have nothing against AR at all. I have nothing against any kid. I think you are 100% correct, AR is more of an NBA player than a college player. Is that a mystery to anyone? It certainly shouldn't be. He has been groomed all of his life to play pro and he is following that plan precisely. Do you think his goals are to be a Duke legend or a pro? If you look at the box score from the Lehigh game ( and Lehigh isn't a barn burner ) he was 5 for 14 from the field, had only 1 assist and 2 turnovers. When you are creating opportunities, you must have more than 1 assist after having the ball that many times. Maybe i am just too old and have seen too much round ball, but, against a competitor like Lehigh, that just doesn't make me jump up and down regardless of who is being discussed. I think he should be back next year because I think he has a ways to go before he is pro ready, but, he has pull that others don't have. His outside shots must improve significantly too. Not just 3 point shots, but outside shots. Driving the lane in the pros will also be alot different. Doc will decide this and I have no idea what the decision will be.

hq2
03-21-2012, 03:02 PM
Doc will decide this and I have no idea what the decision will be.

No reason for him to get advice from us; won't get much better than that!

hq2
03-21-2012, 03:04 PM
Doc will decide this and I have no idea what the decision will be.

No reason for him to get advice from us; won't get much better than that!

gwlaw99
03-21-2012, 03:22 PM
I actually agree a lot with this. Rivers could still "out-athlete" most high school players. That, along with his polished moves made him dominant. He's been at times dominant as a college freshman, but he's finding that defenses are bigger, stronger, faster, and more disciplined in college. That only becomes more true in the NBA (despite what some people may think, the defense played in the NBA is really good). It's much harder to win those isolation battles without Kobe-like athleticism. It would do Rivers a world of good to expand his game a lot more in order to succeed at the next level.

He also can't or won't finish with his left hand which makes him much easier to block.

CDu
03-21-2012, 03:33 PM
He also can't or won't finish with his left hand which makes him much easier to block.

Not sure I agree with this (the "easier to block" part). He's crafty enough to finish with his right hand from the same spots that folks would finish with their left hand. Now, you could argue that he forces himself to take more difficult shots as a result, and I won't argue there. But I don't think he's any easier to block. I don't remember him having his shot blocked very often this year.

Greg_Newton
03-21-2012, 04:16 PM
I actually agree a lot with this. Rivers could still "out-athlete" most high school players. That, along with his polished moves made him dominant. He's been at times dominant as a college freshman, but he's finding that defenses are bigger, stronger, faster, and more disciplined in college. That only becomes more true in the NBA (despite what some people may think, the defense played in the NBA is really good). It's much harder to win those isolation battles without Kobe-like athleticism. It would do Rivers a world of good to expand his game a lot more in order to succeed at the next level.

Point!

Guard!

C'mon Austin, come back and learn the ropes from "the man who made Kyrie Irving"! :D

azzefkram
03-21-2012, 04:32 PM
Not sure I agree with this (the "easier to block" part). He's crafty enough to finish with his right hand from the same spots that folks would finish with their left hand. Now, you could argue that he forces himself to take more difficult shots as a result, and I won't argue there. But I don't think he's any easier to block. I don't remember him having his shot blocked very often this year.

It's assumed it is easier to block since you don't have to go across the shooters body to get to the ball. It kind of makes sense but who knows if that is really the case.

CDu
03-21-2012, 05:21 PM
It's assumed it is easier to block since you don't have to go across the shooters body to get to the ball. It kind of makes sense but who knows if that is really the case.

But most blocks don't happen in a man-on-man situation. They happen primarily from an off position (either coming in from the side or from behind). Usually, if you are going right at the defender, you are able to adjust to avoid a block. That would be true with either hand. If the defender is going to be able to block your shot face-up, he's probably going to be able to do so regardless of which hand you release with (in other words, he's going to be able to come across your body anyway). Only the really good shotblockers can regularly get those kind of blocks. Rivers is clever enough to avoid getting blocked by the man facing him. And that's the only situation in which the hand could make much difference. The weakside help is going to get there (or not) no matter which hand he shoots with.

Greg_Newton
03-21-2012, 05:27 PM
But most blocks don't happen in a man-on-man situation. They happen primarily from an off position (either coming in from the side or from behind). Usually, if you are going right at the defender, you are able to adjust to avoid a block. That would be true with either hand. If the defender is going to be able to block your shot face-up, he's probably going to be able to do so regardless of which hand you release with (in other words, he's going to be able to come across your body anyway). Only the really good shotblockers can regularly get those kind of blocks. Rivers is clever enough to avoid getting blocked by the man facing him. And that's the only situation in which the hand could make much difference. The weakside help is going to get there (or not) no matter which hand he shoots with.

Have to disagree here. If you're jumping into a defender who's basically lateral to you, the cushion provided by your body and off-hand provides important separation. It's a lot harder to make shoulder-to-shoulder contact with a defender in the air, then finish with that same hand (all else equal).

gwlaw99
03-21-2012, 06:06 PM
It's assumed it is easier to block since you don't have to go across the shooters body to get to the ball. It kind of makes sense but who knows if that is really the case.

That is one reason especially since NBA shot blockers are much better than in college.

Here is a good example from Jeremy Lin. Could he have finished this shot with his right hand?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNbAGKxy6FY

Kobe finishing with his left to avoid the block.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Imelc_ngDBI

Not only that, but players often have to switch to their left hand to finish in order to not get blocked.

For example, in this video how Kyrie needs to switch hands to avoid getting blocked by Lebron.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsUtG9CI6IQ

I shouldn't say Rivers "can't" use his left hand. I am just saying it is not quite natural for him based on what we have seen all season. Here is a nice left handed drive by Austin at about 1:30 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGDexLmdqpA

HK Dukie
03-21-2012, 08:27 PM
From Austin's tweets on wanting to prove all the doubters wrong, I'm pessimistic he will be coming back.

Good luck to him whatever he decides.

greybeard
03-21-2012, 08:28 PM
Have to disagree here. If you're jumping into a defender who's basically lateral to you, the cushion provided by your body and off-hand provides important separation. It's a lot harder to make shoulder-to-shoulder contact with a defender in the air, then finish with that same hand (all else equal).

Earl Monroe would disagree. So would I.

You make shoulder to shoulder contact going slightly right to left, catch in your lefrt hand immediately after your left foot (first step) hits the ground, bringing the ball up and towards the right, your right hand meets the ball in front of the middle of upper part of the defender's chest, you bring the ball up as the defender goes by you and is expecting the right takeoff foot to drop only you move the ball up and forward which if the defender can react at all, causes him to reach back but you pull the ball back and move it over to your right and release it unimpeded, banking it off the board. The shot is very, very repeatable. Or, if the guy doesn't go past you you bring the ball up right past his face and release a couple of inches above the middle of his forhead, again off the boad--no way the defender can get his hand on it. The lefty slight hook shot, on the other hand, can be timed by a much taller defender and blocked out of the air.

Rivers has come up with ways of befuddling defenders and the laws of nature going to his left and finishing with his right that I have never seen before. No one has gotten a hand on these finishes and he has made lots of them. I am sure, as in certain, that he has a little lefty hook in his arsenal.

Unlike G who could not and did not dribble to his left, Rivers attacks frequently in that direction. His preference for going right is probably in part shaped by the floater he has going straight toward the basket or to his right. He has not shown that same shot going to his left. I'm not sure I know how such a floater would look.

What I haven't seen from Rivers is a pull up jump shot in the lane, after slowing down as he passes the foul line. That shot I think is extremely important to have--if the big comes out, Rivers blows by him or bounces or lobs it to the open inside player who has just been left alone. Very important shot to have. Teague was terrific at that.

Rivers, actually, has not shown that he has a mid-range jump shot off the dribble, or catch for that matter. That, I think, is of a same piece with the just described in the lane slow-down and pull-up jump shot. Here is where his shooting style, elbows out, etc., I believe needs to be diversified--he needs an entirely different jump shot to pose a mid-range or in-the-lane scoring threat of the sorts just described. I'm confident that he can develop the in the lane shot, and if he does that, the mid range shot will be there also, but for the need for different footwork, different ways of bringing the ball up to shooting, and different release points, which is to say that the options for shooting a mid range jump shot he'll need/want to develop (no one should have just one) will pretty much be different. The major change, however, the narrower elbows, the shooting off lateral movement, will haave already been developed. The rest is relative tweaking.

For all we know, he might have those shots in his game already, maybe just not to his satisfaction yet.

By the way, what in heaven's name is "Basketball IQ?" What do IQ tests actually measure? To me, the term "Basketball IQ," ubiquitous in basketball lexicon, is a meaningless nothing to substitute for a range of things that can be identified and stated with specificity. When a kid takes an IQ test, they give the kid a single score, and here we are not talking about some abstract measurement of some etherial ability that makes IQ tests of questionable utility even when it comes to learning one's abcs; movements, and the ever changing relationships on the court, how one sees them and choses to react, the diversity of tools that he brings to the task, his ability to compute/intuate/presage what is going to happen before the soon to be actors have even come into the play, well, which among these things and others are we talking about. Sorry, statistics here are useless, and Basketball IQ" leaves me at a loss.

Rivers got to be the one-one in his year's recruiting class, started on a team stock full of talented guards, and made first team ACC. Whatever basketball IQ means, I couldn't imagine that he doesn't have enough of mant of the things that it comprises in substantial enough quantities (?) not to be said to posses a pretty high one.

Greg_Newton
03-21-2012, 11:02 PM
You make shoulder to shoulder contact going slightly right to left, catch in your lefrt hand immediately after your left foot (first step) hits the ground, bringing the ball up and towards the right, your right hand meets the ball in front of the middle of upper part of the defender's chest, you bring the ball up as the defender goes by you and is expecting the right takeoff foot to drop only you move the ball up and forward which if the defender can react at all, causes him to reach back but you pull the ball back and move it over to your right and release it unimpeded, banking it off the board.

Wait... what? You're saying that it's preferable to completely change your footwork, jump on your first step, and essentially try to "sneak" the ball behind the defender, while hoping he simply sails past? You're going to get zero lift on your jump if you actually sell it, first of all, and given that it only takes 2-3 steps for an offensive player to get from the 3-point line to the rim these days, you're going to end up jumping very far from the rim.

More importantly, have you ever seen Rivers execute this specific move?


Or, if the guy doesn't go past you you bring the ball up right past his face and release a couple of inches above the middle of his forhead, again off the boad--no way the defender can get his hand on it. The lefty slight hook shot, on the other hand, can be timed by a much taller defender and blocked out of the air.

I mean... have you seen this happen once in college basketball this year? A defender driving to the left side of the rim, contested in the air by a defender, and sneaks the shot across his body, right over the defender's forehead, with his right hand? Honest question.

Both of those moves seem like sneaky attempts to compensate for not having the natural advantage of your body and off-hand to create separation and extension. A left-handed layup on the left side of the rim is a pretty basic fundamental of basketball, regardless of whether you can think of ways to circumvent it.

dcar1985
03-21-2012, 11:37 PM
That is one reason especially since NBA shot blockers are much better than in college.

Here is a good example from Jeremy Lin. Could he have finished this shot with his right hand?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNbAGKxy6FY

Kobe finishing with his left to avoid the block.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Imelc_ngDBI

Not only that, but players often have to switch to their left hand to finish in order to not get blocked.

For example, in this video how Kyrie needs to switch hands to avoid getting blocked by Lebron.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsUtG9CI6IQ

I shouldn't say Rivers "can't" use his left hand. I am just saying it is not quite natural for him based on what we have seen all season. Here is a nice left handed drive by Austin at about 1:30 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGDexLmdqpA


Just nitpicking but he didn't look very comfortable finishing left there and he jumped off the wrong foot which was why there was no elevation.

greybeard
03-22-2012, 01:34 AM
Wait... what? You're saying that it's preferable to completely change your footwork, jump on your first step, and essentially try to "sneak" the ball behind the defender, while hoping he simply sails past? You're going to get zero lift on your jump if you actually sell it, first of all, and given that it only takes 2-3 steps for an offensive player to get from the 3-point line to the rim these days, you're going to end up jumping very far from the rim.

More importantly, have you ever seen Rivers execute this specific move?



I mean... have you seen this happen once in college basketball this year? A defender driving to the left side of the rim, contested in the air by a defender, and sneaks the shot across his body, right over the defender's forehead, with his right hand? Honest question.

Both of those moves seem like sneaky attempts to compensate for not having the natural advantage of your body and off-hand to create separation and extension. A left-handed layup on the left side of the rim is a pretty basic fundamental of basketball, regardless of whether you can think of ways to circumvent it.

Rivers has done the move. You just haven't noticed. You want to see plenty of it watch video of Earl or better still Bobby Jones, who wrong footed everyone from all angles. Seattle had a blond haired center who instead of pivoting to his left by swinging his right foot around his left pivot foot to face the basket did an upside down pivot that had him playing off the wrong foot from the get go. What he did was, after catching it with his back to the basket, he would slide his right foot, heal first, past the heal of his left foot, and as he pivoted on his left foot to the right, he slide his right foot back. In other words, he was facing up to the defender as if he was a lefty only he was a righty, except, unlike a lefty, his pivot foot, the foot in front, was his left foot, just like a righty. He shot his jump shot from that position and all his off-the-bounce moves started with the "wrong" foot moving in the "wrong" direction and ususally ended up with a wrong footed finish. The guy couldn't jump, was 6'10" maybe, and I believe is in the top 50. No one could guard the guy because he was counter to everyone's habitual pattern for playing the game and none of his movements could be met with the defender's habitual patterns for defense. They literally were dumbfounded, and, if his jump shot was falling, he owned them.

Cazzy Russell was the first I ever saw using a wrong footed stop and quick catch with his left hand to shoot a jump shot going to his left. He would drive at a very controlled gait that the defender could time parellel to the side line and when he was at right angle to the rim, jab his right foot into the ground as he reached down with his left, scooped the ball up with his left hand off the short bounce, jab his left foot into the ground and elevate. Did it all the time and the defender rarely got up to defend, and never got up quick enough to make a serious challenge. Why? You have to stop the guy from turning the corner and driving the baseline, you need to stay down. The normal one-two stop, plant left foot and square up as you catch and plant right foot in front gives the defender lots of time to defend because the entire set up takes time. Now, NEARLY EVERY PLAYER WHO GOES TO HIS LEFT AND SHOOTS A JUMP SHOT HAS CAZZY'S FOOTWORK, AT LEAST IN HIS ARSENAL.

Back to the layup, people just can't time what they see so rarely. If a defender tried to time, prepare himself to defend, a wrong-footed first-step stop and shot, he would have to slow down in anticipation while the offensive player continued at speed. Then the defender just gave up the one shot that every basketball player in the universe has to defend against, and that would be a layup from the easiest spot on the court. The defender, when confronted with a right to left drive, must try to make the dribbler shoot from a slightly different angle than what is ideal, to make him take a wider girth than releasing the scoop hook layup with his body in front of the rim and his arm extended to the side. If the defender does that, and the offensive player does not have a range of angles that are "money," the odds of his making that shot dramatically diminished. Then, when it is a big against a little, the big defender will have the space to both distrub the release point (again diminishing the odds of a make) and to get a piece of it in the air. The defender has no other choice but to play the offensive player this way.

By the way, if a college player does not have that shot, a scoop hooked layup going across the lane either way, and thus with either hand, he is not Div I, or Div II, or Div III player. In fact, he is a rather poorly skilled rec ball player; might be a great athlete, but not a ball player. I had that shot by sixth grade. Rivers I am sure had it much sooner.

Anyway, let's continue. If the defender is going at speed and you wrong foot him, maybe he gets to reach back, but you control the ball and the timing of your release and can move the ball around, bring it forward and up with your right and supporting left which will cause the guy to come up with his arm and the rest of him ever so slightly, what goes up must come down before a body can redirect itself and in the meantime you have an uncontested shot. Now, if the guy isn't, and it is often the case that he isn't, completely past you, but rather has been, as you put it, shoulder to shoulder, when you one-stop the guy you wind up with your bodies more or less on the same plain--you have in effect turned some to your right. You bring the ball palm up where it meets your right sort of where the guy's sternum is and then continue to bring it up past his chin, nose, and forehead and release the ball slightly above his forehead, perhaps even reaching so the ball is actully over the space between the guys ear and shoulder.

Please explain how the defender can possibly disturb this shot, and the method don't count if it includes punching himself in the jaw, nose or high cheek bone or eye.

Now, Rivers is often triple teamed, there is a second inside help defender trailing the first. That guy can get the shot we are talking about if he is close and adroit enough. That's when Rivers' chaotic genuis, and I do mean genuis, and amazingly quick feet with small steps while dribbling takes the entire deal to a ridiculous level. See, when he senses that that second guy can get the wrong footed move, he either makes sure he draws the foul from the first help guy or the guy who was guarding him all along or both (who can anticipate this guy's slight changes in direction), or comes up with some ridiculous over his head, back to the basket, layup or jump stop creation that somehow goes in and will always draw a foul, called or not.

So, I hope that that satisfies. If I was a younger man, I'd show you what I'm talking about. A picture, they say, is worth a thousand words and I am way, way over the limit.

Greg_Newton
03-22-2012, 02:05 AM
You want to see plenty of it watch video of Earl or better still Bobby Jones, who wrong footed everyone from all angles.

Don't get me wrong, I think all this stuff is interesting (Dick DiVenzio's Stuff Good Players Should Know was like my bible growing up). But rather than relying on extremely subtle and unconventional moves that require impeccable timing which a couple of precocious players pulled off in a very different era (there weren't centers with 12'+ max reaches on every team in the 70s) as your default finish on the left side of the court, wouldn't it be easier to simply work on your left-handed lay-in?

Anyway, here's an article on Mason's process: http://heraldsun.com/bookmark/17962027 Mason says he's going to explore the possibility of entering the draft, and sounds like he truly doesn't have his mind made up either way.

CameronBornAndBred
03-22-2012, 08:04 AM
Mason's thinking things over.

“He is taking his time, doing some soul searching and gathering quality information with which to make an informed decision about his future,” said Perky Plumlee, Mason’s father. “The Duke staff is fully supportive and wants the best for Mason.”
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/03/22/3115993/dukes-plumlee-evaluating-nba-option.html#storylink=cpy

greybeard
03-22-2012, 08:34 AM
Don't get me wrong, I think all this stuff is interesting (Dick DiVenzio's Stuff Good Players Should Know was like my bible growing up). But rather than relying on extremely subtle and unconventional moves that require impeccable timing which a couple of precocious players pulled off in a very different era (there weren't centers with 12'+ max reaches on every team in the 70s) as your default finish on the left side of the court, wouldn't it be easier to simply work on your left-handed lay-in?

Anyway, here's an article on Mason's process: http://heraldsun.com/bookmark/17962027 Mason says he's going to explore the possibility of entering the draft, and sounds like he truly doesn't have his mind made up either way.

A couple of things. First, I took a rolled up pair of socks, and using the trim on the top of a wide opening between my living and dining rooms walked through the moves I have been describing and, in recreating the feel of it realized that there was a misstake, a mistake without a realo difference, but a mistake nontheless. Without belaboring an issue of not great moment, what I found was that the catch is in fact made as the left foot hits the ground (assuming going slightly right to left or even straight at the left side of the basket head on for left handed layup, hook or not. Where the off-beat, non conventional, almost impossible right hand shot is set up is where and how the right foot is planted and where the left leg goes thereafter. If going for the basket for a left handed finish the right foot is planted and the left knee comes up in front of the body to elevate for a layup. When pulling the ball back to shoot with the right, the lower left leg never comes forward and the pull of the right arm back causes the offensive's btorso to turn sort of 30-45 degrees to the right, parellel to the defenders.

This misnomer that many people operate under is that the offensive player needs to be "there" faster/first and higher than the defender to score the ball. The offensive player and the ball simply have to be whereever "there" is (the offensive player gets to choose) at a different time. Tyler Hansborough loved to set guy's up off a stop going slightly to his left, stepping through with his left foot, holding the ball wide of his right shoulder, up around his ear or higher, and shooting a bank shot. Never jumped, not meaningfully. He also regularly used a move that brought him chest to chest with a defender, again in a manner that caused the defender to think the ball was coming up for release in one spot, only to find that as he closed he encountered Hans' chest with the ball held wide and shot from the above mentioned position. Again he never jumped. He had other moves like that, the bulk of which I cannot recall right now. You'll recall the moves because everyone here complained ole Tyler was charging or walking but he was doing neither, which is why neither was called. Different place. Tyler set the tempo of the dance, the defender has no choice but to follow it, and catching the defender on the offstep, Tyler plants as if he's about to rise, the defender hurries, Tyler steps through and the defender jumps towards what is now Tyler's chest.

Your boy Kyrie never outruns anybody anywhere and always winds up with an open shot. How? He gets to spots in unexpected ways at unexpected speeds, a feigned or short burst and then a change in direction or simply a stop. Kyrie will often pull off several of these in one foray.

The taller payers of today create greater problems for the shot that we're discussing but opnly if they have space, room from the shooter. But they can't afford that room because they must stop the shooter getting to the layup spot, they must make him stop at a different spot at a slightly different angle to make the shot itself a fairly low percentage finish and to have the room to use their length. Once Rivers is chest to chest, the height advantage is of no meaningful significance. Most of Rivers moves like this result in fouls that put him on the floor, which is why I believe that you say they are not used.

Dave DeBushere used to drive the lane, sometimes finishing with the left when he could beat the help and other times one-footing it and finishing right. Clyde used to dribble slowly with a gliding step-slide, step-slide when moving back and forth, from one side of the lane to the other, about 15-17 feet out. The defender had to move at Clydes' even, slow tempo, Clyde chose when the dance speeded up, and would have a quick rise and shot, only if the defender kept up and rose as Clyde was about to, Clyde pulled it back down a bit, stepped through, often made the shot and got fouled or just got fouled.

Vladie never got anywhere first and never went fast, he got the guy moving at his pace in the direction he chose, seeming to ready himself to stop in a place where the finish was predictable, and once the defender bit, Valdie was off in a different direction, not vary far and deleivered a shot in a way and from a spot that the defender had no chance of contesting.

There are much better athletes playing today and lots more length. Off the ball shot blockers, and each team almost always has two, even if one is the real deal, make for greater challenges. But they do whether a guard is going fast or slow. Marshall, the next time he finishes inside with speed will be the first. Ditto with Kyrie. The offensive player sets the tempo, direction and steps for the dance and can change it when and how he decides, which is why many unathletic guys can really play. Oh, another real terrific guy in getting guys wrongfooted and getting defenders into his chest and delivering the ball from odd positions was McKale. He never outjumped anyone and kept his enemies closer than they could handle--that was key to his game. Zeller, BTW, has a fair amount of this type play in his game.

This was an interesting disgussion and I see your points--most of the game is played at speed and over the rim. Kyrie, Paul, are examples of guys who do not use speed, but rather change of speed to beat you. Rivers is mostly a speed guy but does use this wrinkle when going left. He does so because it works and the left handed finish will be blocked or sufficiently altered to give it no chance.

I could be all wet about this, but don't think so. I sometimes speak with sureness that inappropriately presupposes that there are no other possibilities. There are, and I really need to find a different voice when participating in a good airing of opposing views. Sorry to the extent that I have done that here. The fun and worthwhile stuff here happens when the debate, while sometimes fierce, remains open. I've got to remember that!

Thanks for the run.

ForkFondler
03-22-2012, 10:47 AM
I would have to believe so. FWIW, if Austin stays, I would not be at all surprised to see the staff give serious consideration to (or at least experiment with) shifting him to the point, and pushing Austin to use his quickness and penetrating ability in exactly the fashion you describe. If successful, our offense could improve dramatically, even without Mason. Austin's NBA potential would surely increase, too, if he were viewed as having legit PG skills.

When Rivers and Thornton played together, it seemed to me that Rivers was the de facto PG on offense, while Thornton generally played the opposing PG on defense.

CDu
03-22-2012, 10:58 AM
When Rivers and Thornton played together, it seemed to me that Rivers was the de facto PG on offense, while Thornton generally played the opposing PG on defense.

I think the situation was pretty fluid actually. Depending on the game situation and opponent, Rivers, Thornton, Curry, and Cook all took turns at PG on both ends of the floor. At no point in the season did we have one clear-cut PG for the majority of a game.

MattC09
03-22-2012, 11:31 AM
According to JayWill, Mason is going to test the waters. I imagine that he's gone.

SoCalDukeFan
03-22-2012, 11:33 AM
Don't get me wrong, I think all this stuff is interesting (Dick DiVenzio's Stuff Good Players Should Know was like my bible growing up). But rather than relying on extremely subtle and unconventional moves that require impeccable timing which a couple of precocious players pulled off in a very different era (there weren't centers with 12'+ max reaches on every team in the 70s) as your default finish on the left side of the court, wouldn't it be easier to simply work on your left-handed lay-in?

Anyway, here's an article on Mason's process: http://heraldsun.com/bookmark/17962027 Mason says he's going to explore the possibility of entering the draft, and sounds like he truly doesn't have his mind made up either way.

I take Mason's thinking as a sign that he is going pro. I had hoped that graduating in four years with a double major would bring him back no matter what so need to test the waters.

SoCal

dyedwab
03-22-2012, 11:38 AM
According to JayWill, Mason is going to test the waters. I imagine that he's gone.

i love JWill, his tweet doesn't tell us anything more substantive the H-S piece from yesterday

_Gary
03-22-2012, 11:43 AM
According to JayWill, Mason is going to test the waters. I imagine that he's gone.

Sounds that way. And I also agree with those that interpret Austin's tweets as him going pro as opposed to staying. If both guys are gone, next year looks to be much more of a rebuilding process than I had hoped for. Only snagging Bazz would change that at this point.

MattC09
03-22-2012, 11:44 AM
i love JWill, his tweet doesn't tell us anything more substantive the H-S piece from yesterday

I think the difference is that the articles yesterday were more along the lines of "Mason is gathering his information to see if he should declare for the draft" versus "Mason is declaring for the draft but hasn't hired an agent yet." It's not much different, but he's in the draft. Nolan and Kyle both did their research after 2010 without entering.

CDu
03-22-2012, 11:44 AM
i love JWill, his tweet doesn't tell us anything more substantive the H-S piece from yesterday

True, but both (if true) would seem to suggest that he's probably going. To my knowledge we haven't had anyone test the waters and then return. Coach K has pretty good NBA ties and provides it to the players. So when a Duke player decides to "test the waters" that usually means they're going.

Kedsy
03-22-2012, 11:45 AM
I think the difference is that the articles yesterday were more along the lines of "Mason is gathering his information to see if he should declare for the draft" versus "Mason is declaring for the draft but hasn't hired an agent yet." It's not much different, but he's in the draft. Nolan and Kyle both did their research after 2010 without entering.

Do we have anything other than Jay Williams's tweet that says "Mason is declaring for the draft but hasn't hired an agent"?

Kedsy
03-22-2012, 11:47 AM
True, but both (if true) would seem to suggest that he's probably going.

My reading of that article was that he's in the information gathering stage, similar to what Nolan and Kyle did in 2010. I agree that if he decides to declare he's probably gone whether he immediately hires an agent or not.

_Gary
03-22-2012, 11:48 AM
Do we have anything other than Jay Williams's tweet that says "Mason is declaring for the draft but hasn't hired an agent"?

Do we need anything more than that? I trust JayWill 100% and seriously doubt he'd tweet something like that unless he was positive about his info.

CDu
03-22-2012, 11:49 AM
Sounds that way. And I also agree with those that interpret Austin's tweets as him going pro as opposed to staying. If both guys are gone, next year looks to be much more of a rebuilding process than I had hoped for. Only snagging Bazz would change that at this point.

Unless we're able to add a couple of McDonald's All-Americans and/or some of the current players really step up.

Certainly if we see the same performances as this year minus Mason and Rivers, it'll be a rebuilding year (though still a sure-fire tournament team, of course). But I'd expect big jumps from guys like Gbinije, Cook, Murphy, and Marshall, and continued improvements from the veterans. And I'd hope for Sulaimon to be an impact player as his top-15 recruit status would suggest.

And maybe we'll get lucky in landing 1 or 2 of the recruits we're in the market for at this point.

dyedwab
03-22-2012, 11:57 AM
...but I haven't seen the "Mason Plumlee is entering his name in the draft but not hiring an agent" tweet/article/ etc.

Link to that anyone?

I'm not arguing that that's not eventually what will be happening. But "testing the waters" is both a general comment on what a player is doing (gathering info, etc) and a very specific set of facts re: a player (declares for the draft w/o an agent). I'm not sure which one it is right now.

CDu
03-22-2012, 12:04 PM
Do we have anything other than Jay Williams's tweet that says "Mason is declaring for the draft but hasn't hired an agent"?

Do you think that Williams would tweet something like that if it weren't accurate? He's got pretty decent ties to Duke, after all. Given his desire to be objective and professional in the business, you think he'd want to be really careful not to say something inaccurate about his own school.

CDu
03-22-2012, 12:06 PM
...but I haven't seen the "Mason Plumlee is entering his name in the draft but not hiring an agent" tweet/article/ etc.

Link to that anyone?

I'm not arguing that that's not eventually what will be happening. But "testing the waters" is both a general comment on what a player is doing (gathering info, etc) and a very specific set of facts re: a player (declares for the draft w/o an agent). I'm not sure which one it is right now.

You are correct in that we haven't seen more than "testing the waters." The speculation is based on the concept that Duke players don't really test the waters. They either declare and stay in the draft or they don't declare at all. Guys who have tested the waters in the past have always gone (Dunleavy, Deng, Henderson), and guys who weren't going to go didn't test the waters. To clarify: testing the waters typically means declaring and getting feedback directly from teams (which you can't do without declaring).

greybeard
03-22-2012, 12:07 PM
Might not Mason's decision depend on what Austin does?

Kedsy
03-22-2012, 12:09 PM
Do you think that Williams would tweet something like that if it weren't accurate? He's got pretty decent ties to Duke, after all. Given his desire to be objective and professional in the business, you think he'd want to be really careful not to say something inaccurate about his own school.

I agree Williams wouldn't intentionally do something that would jeopardize his credibility in his field. On the other hand, it's a tweet.

Saratoga2
03-22-2012, 12:09 PM
Unless we're able to add a couple of McDonald's All-Americans and/or some of the current players really step up.

Certainly if we see the same performances as this year minus Mason and Rivers, it'll be a rebuilding year (though still a sure-fire tournament team, of course). But I'd expect big jumps from guys like Gbinije, Cook, Murphy, and Marshall, and continued improvements from the veterans. And I'd hope for Sulaimon to be an impact player as his top-15 recruit status would suggest.

And maybe we'll get lucky in landing 1 or 2 of the recruits we're in the market for at this point.

With Kelly, an untried Marshall and Josh as our bigs, Dawkins, Michael and Alex potential small forwards and Quinn, Tyler, Seth and Sulaimon at the guard positions, why do you think that consitutes a sure fire tournament team?

There are a number of ACC teams that gave us issues last year and I see the team as currently constituted, with Austin and Mason both gone, as weaker than last years team. Others getting stronger while we rebuild, that certainly raises the question of us getting into the tournament.

UrinalCake
03-22-2012, 12:09 PM
True, but both (if true) would seem to suggest that he's probably going. To my knowledge we haven't had anyone test the waters and then return. Coach K has pretty good NBA ties and provides it to the players. So when a Duke player decides to "test the waters" that usually means they're going.

It's never happened before that someone tested the waters and came back, but that doesn't mean it won't ever happen. Before Brand, Maggette, and Avery left nobody had ever left early from Duke, so fans assumed they would stay. I agree that it's likely Mason and Austin will remain in the draft, especially with the shortened window to withdraw, but I'll still hold out a glimmer of hope until the deadline passes or they hire agents.

dyedwab
03-22-2012, 12:13 PM
You are correct in that we haven't seen more than "testing the waters." The speculation is based on the concept that Duke players don't really test the waters. They either declare and stay in the draft or they don't declare at all. Guys who have tested the waters in the past have always gone (Dunleavy, Deng, Henderson), and guys who weren't going to go didn't test the waters. To clarify: testing the waters typically means declaring and getting feedback directly from teams (which you can't do without declaring).

If what Jason Williams is reporting is consistent with the article in the H-S, then it is EXACTLY what Kyle Singler did after the National Championship. I'm being pedantic, but there are no reports that Mason has entered his name in the draft and not hired an agent (that is not was Jason Williams tweeted).

My point is that until I see it confirmed by another source, JWill's tweet appears to me to refer to "testing the waters" as the generic term for seeking information about his stock in the NBA, not the specific "Testing the waters" period."

At Duke, the point of no return for entering the draft has been putting your name in, not hiring an agent. All i'm saying is that that has not yet been reported.

Kedsy
03-22-2012, 12:13 PM
With Kelly, an untried Marshall and Josh as our bigs, Dawkins, Michael and Alex potential small forwards and Quinn, Tyler, Seth and Sulaimon at the guard positions, why do you think that consitutes a sure fire tournament team?

There are a number of ACC teams that gave us issues last year and I see the team as currently constituted, with Austin and Mason both gone, as weaker than last years team. Others getting stronger while we rebuild, that certainly raises the question of us getting into the tournament.

The team you're describing has seven guys who were top 30 recruits plus a 3rd team all-conference player and a 7-footer. Including three seniors and two juniors. They may struggle at times and they may not get a #1 or #2 seed, but that's a sure fire tournament team.

Kedsy
03-22-2012, 12:15 PM
If what Jason Williams is reporting is consistent with the article in the H-S, then it is EXACTLY what Kyle Singler did after the National Championship. I'm being pedantic, but Mason there are no reports that Mason has entered his name in the draft and not hired an agent (that is not was Jason Williams tweeted).

My point is that what until I see it confirmed by another source, JWill's tweet appears to me to refer to "testing the waters" as the generic term for seeking information about his stock in the NBA, not the specific "Testing the waters" period."

At Duke, the point of no return for entering the draft has been putting your name in, not hiring an agent. All i'm saying is that that has not yet been reported.

Well, except for the part that he called it "breaking news." The H-S article came out yesterday, so merely repeating what was reported in that article wouldn't be breaking news in any meaningful way.

tbyers11
03-22-2012, 12:18 PM
With Kelly, an untried Marshall and Josh as our bigs, Dawkins, Michael and Alex potential small forwards and Quinn, Tyler, Seth and Sulaimon at the guard positions, why do you think that consitutes a sure fire tournament team?

There are a number of ACC teams that gave us issues last year and I see the team as currently constituted, with Austin and Mason both gone, as weaker than last years team. Others getting stronger while we rebuild, that certainly raises the question of us getting into the tournament.

I agree that on paper we are weaker next year without Austin and Mason. But I am not sure it is much weaker. Sulaimon is going to be very good. Other players step into bigger roles. Hopefully Murphy and Gbinije give us more flexibility at 3/4. Post presence will be a big issue. We aren't going to be one of the top 10-15 teams most likely to win it all but we will be a sure-fire tourney team

Additionally, if Barnes and Henson leave with Zeller (and possibly Marshall) UNC is rebuilding too. FSU is rebuilding too (MUCH more so than we will be). NCST (if Leslie stays) could be the favorite to win the ACC.

CDu
03-22-2012, 12:19 PM
The team you're describing has seven guys who were top 30 recruits plus a 3rd team all-conference player and a 7-footer. Including three seniors and two juniors. They may struggle at times and they may not get a #1 or #2 seed, but that's a sure fire tournament team.

My sentiments exactly. I have no doubt at all that we will make the tournament next year regardless of the presence or absence of Mason and Rivers.

dyedwab
03-22-2012, 12:21 PM
Well, except for the part that he called it "breaking news." The H-S article came out yesterday, so merely repeating what was reported in that article wouldn't be breaking news in any meaningful way.

I agree. and I've actually tweeted at him to see if there is more than that going on.

But here's another point. Assuming your interpretation of JWIll's tweet is correct, other writers/reporters will be asking the exact same question that I am. And soon, there will either be confirmation that this is true, or a repetition of what we know from yesterday's article.

JWill's tweet had less actual information the yesterday's story - and radically changes those narratives, so that is why I am waiting for further reporting.

moonpie23
03-22-2012, 12:32 PM
jwill's tweets ARE news.........no need for "reporters" to convey to the public any more.....

CDu
03-22-2012, 12:34 PM
I agree. and I've actually tweeted at him to see if there is more than that going on.

But here's another point. Assuming your interpretation of JWIll's tweet is correct, other writers/reporters will be asking the exact same question that I am. And soon, there will either be confirmation that this is true, or a repetition of what we know from yesterday's article.

JWill's tweet had less actual information the yesterday's story - and radically changes those narratives, so that is why I am waiting for further reporting.

I think that, based on the "breaking news" part and Williams' general understanding of the regularly used meaning of "testing the waters", the logical conclusion is that Williams thinks Mason is declaring without an agent. Singler didn't test the waters - he gathered information. But I agree that we'll probably soon find out as people start to ask more questions.

DukeGirl4ever
03-22-2012, 12:37 PM
Well, except for the part that he called it "breaking news." The H-S article came out yesterday, so merely repeating what was reported in that article wouldn't be breaking news in any meaningful way.

That's it! I'm staying off of twittter! My nerves can't handle the psychological madness involved! :D

The article that came out yesterday made it clear (or I thought it sounded clear) that Mason was going to gather some info and go on a fact finding expedition.
Now today, we've got "breaking news" that he's "testing the waters".

To me, that doesn't equate him declaring for the draft in one day's time, so I'm not sure what source to believe, or rather what interpretation to believe.

But, who knows....and this is why I'm going to stay away from Twitter until the end of April!

dyedwab
03-22-2012, 12:54 PM
Jeff Goodman at CBS says that JWill jumped the gun:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/17971373/exduke-star-jay-williams-jumping-the-gun-on-mason-plumlee



Former Duke star and ESPN analyst Jay Williams tweeted that Blue Devils junior forward Mason Plumlee has decided to put his name in for the NBA Draft.

According to multiple sources, that's news to Plumlee.

Plumlee told numerous sources on Thursday he's "looking at the NBA" and Duke is gathering information whether he'll be a first-rounder. He intends to sit down with his family this week and then make a decision prior to the April 10 deadline.

Moreover, JWill has followed up his tweet about Mason testing the waters with a tweet...linking to the H-S story from yesterday. WRAL has confirmed with Mason's dad that he's looking at the NBA but nothing's been decided and that Mason needs 2 classes to graduate.

Again here's the single key point - Mason HAS NOT YET entered his name into the draft. He might, and I would bet its likely. But as of right now, the H-S story from yesterday provides the most complete evidence of what Mason is doing and no new imnformation has changed that.

Matches
03-22-2012, 12:58 PM
I think J-Will was a little imprecise with his wording. Essentially nothing has changed. Mason is considering the NBA and is gathering information. As many have noted, Duke players typically do not need to "test the waters" in light of K's NBA's connections.

dyedwab
03-22-2012, 01:01 PM
I think J-Will was a little imprecise with his wording. Essentially nothing has changed. Mason is considering the NBA and is gathering information. As many have noted, Duke players typically do not need to "test the waters" in light of K's NBA's connections.

EXACTLY. And because of new NCAA rule and the new NBA CBA, there is effectively no "testing the waters" period where you enter your name without hiring an agent and a few weeks laters decide to stay in or out - the time frame is too short.

Again, nothing has changed, and as of right now, this is what Kyle Singler did in 2010...It may not end up the same way, but it is at the same stage.

CDu
03-22-2012, 01:15 PM
Jeff Goodman at CBS says that JWill jumped the gun:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/17971373/exduke-star-jay-williams-jumping-the-gun-on-mason-plumlee


Moreover, JWill has followed up his tweet about Mason testing the waters with a tweet...linking to the H-S story from yesterday. WRAL has confirmed with Mason's dad that he's looking at the NBA but nothing's been decided and that Mason needs 2 classes to graduate.

Again here's the single key point - Mason HAS NOT YET entered his name into the draft. He might, and I would bet its likely. But as of right now, the H-S story from yesterday provides the most complete evidence of what Mason is doing and no new imnformation has changed that.

Wow, poor form on JWill's part. I was unaware how close Mason was to graduating. I had always assumed that the double-major declaration made it less likely he'd leave early. But if he's only 2 classes away from completing his degree, that might have been faulty on my part. I still do suspect that Mason is going to go, but definitely poor form on Williams' part with that tweet. He should know better.

cape cod
03-22-2012, 01:16 PM
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/bfFvV?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=college-basketball

Kedsy
03-22-2012, 01:18 PM
Do we need anything more than that? I trust JayWill 100% and seriously doubt he'd tweet something like that unless he was positive about his info.


Do you think that Williams would tweet something like that if it weren't accurate? He's got pretty decent ties to Duke, after all. Given his desire to be objective and professional in the business, you think he'd want to be really careful not to say something inaccurate about his own school.


Jeff Goodman at CBS says that JWill jumped the gun:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/17971373/exduke-star-jay-williams-jumping-the-gun-on-mason-plumlee

Like I said before, it's a tweet.

A lot of times tweets end up being real news. Not all the time.

CDu
03-22-2012, 01:23 PM
Like I said before, it's a tweet.

A lot of times tweets end up being real news. Not all the time.

I'd expect more from Williams, though. As a Duke grad, he should know that tweets are still news, and that there's not really much difference between a tweet and an interview - it's all public domain once you put it out there.

Interesting that NBC is now saying he's going pro. Things are all over the place.

My guess is that Williams was probably pretty accurate but jumped the gun.

superdave
03-22-2012, 01:23 PM
Jay Williams ‏ @RealJayWilliams

Here is the article on Mason Plumlee exploring the NBA by the Herald Sun: http://heraldsun.com/view/full_story/17962027/article-Mason-Plumlee-to-explore-entering-NBA-draft?#ixzz1pqbwLtdq
1h

Jay Williams ‏ @RealJayWilliams

Breaking News: Mason Plumlee of Duke testing the NBA waters.

Kedsy
03-22-2012, 01:26 PM
My guess is that Williams was probably pretty accurate but jumped the gun.

You're probably right. These days people are desperate to be the first person out there with news.


Interesting that NBC is now saying he's going pro. Things are all over the place.

Yeah, but the NBC article is quoting Jay Williams and has no other quote or source.

FellowTraveler
03-22-2012, 01:28 PM
NBC says Mason is gone http://bleacherreport.com/tb/bfFvV?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=college-basketball

That appears to be based on nothing more than Williams' first tweet, and is an obvious distortion of it: "As first reported by TV analyst and former Duke point guard Jay Williams, Blue Devil forward Mason Plumlee will enter the NBA draft." That is not even remotely what Williams reported.


Like I said before, it's a tweet.

A lot of times tweets end up being real news. Not all the time.

It isn't that it was a Tweet, it's that it was a Tweet that could have meant two different things and some people chose to conclude that it clearly meant one of the two. Daniel Martin at the link above is the best example of this.

CDu
03-22-2012, 01:29 PM
You're probably right. These days people are desperate to be the first person out there with news.

Yeah, but the NBC article is quoting Jay Williams and has no other quote or source.

Very true. Lazy journalism (the NBC guy) on top of either lazy or too aggressive journalism (JWill).

DukeGirl4ever
03-22-2012, 01:31 PM
Very true. Lazy journalism (the NBC guy) on top of either lazy or too aggressive journalism (JWill).

The NBC article also states that they expect Austin Rivers to declare.

*Sigh*

Oh well, no matter what the make-up of 2012-2013, it will be exciting.

dyedwab
03-22-2012, 01:32 PM
t. I was unaware how close Mason was to graduating. I had always assumed that the double-major declaration made it less likely he'd leave early. But if he's only 2 classes away from completing his degree, that might have been faulty on my part. .

A academic-all American Double Major who is two classes away from graduating after his Junior year....Color me impressed, Mr. Plumlee

pfrduke
03-22-2012, 01:32 PM
NBC affiliated with Bleacher Report? Wow. Have they brought any journalistic credibility to what previously was a forum for anyone to post anything and declare it "news" (based on the latest Williams/Plumlee thing, I'm suspecting not)?

CDu
03-22-2012, 01:32 PM
The NBC article also states that they expect Austin Rivers to declare.

*Sigh*

Oh well, no matter what the make-up of 2012-2013, it will be exciting.

Agreed. We'll be good either way. We'll be better with those guys than without. But we'll be good either way.

Kewlswim
03-22-2012, 01:32 PM
I agree that on paper we are weaker next year without Austin and Mason. But I am not sure it is much weaker. Sulaimon is going to be very good. Other players step into bigger roles. Hopefully Murphy and Gbinije give us more flexibility at 3/4. Post presence will be a big issue. We aren't going to be one of the top 10-15 teams most likely to win it all but we will be a sure-fire tourney team

Additionally, if Barnes and Henson leave with Zeller (and possibly Marshall) UNC is rebuilding too. FSU is rebuilding too (MUCH more so than we will be). NCST (if Leslie stays) could be the favorite to win the ACC.

Hi,

It is super hard to predict what a team will or won't do until one sees that team play going into, say, March. It was clear (though nobody could put their finger on it, even the coaches) that there were some sort of chemistry issues with this team. Next years team without Austin or Mason (should they choose to leave) might in fact be "better" because of improved chemistry issues. New kids coming to the program and older kids stepping up to the plate might make for better Duke basketball. For all we know, Austin and Mason come back and we (there I go again, referring to the team as if I had something to do with it) will be better next year. However, I don't think anyone would be surprised if they come back and the same things happen to next years team. Perhaps part of the problem was that this team liked Austin too much and kept waiting for him to save the day?

I am a Golden State Warriors fan. Back in the day (when the Warriors used to actually be good) they had this guy by the name of Wilt Chamberlain. I never understood why the Warriors traded him away, he is (no offence to Mully and the rest of the retired jerseys) the best Warrior to ever don a Warriors jersey. As a kid I was explained that the Warriors had no choice because the team relied too much on Wilt. They were not going to win any championships looking around waiting for Wilt to score another 100 points. I wonder if the team had Austin on such a pedestal that they need to know he isn't walking through the door to actually be a better team?

I hope Austin comes back, I think he would be leaving prematurely if he left after one season. However, I can see how the allure of the association might be too much. Then again, Doc Rivers might have already decided Austin should stay and is waiting for the right time to fly to Durham and speak with his son about it in person. I really like Doc and think he is very level headed. There are undoubtedly things behind the scenes we have no idea about.

GO DUKE!

dyedwab
03-22-2012, 01:39 PM
The NBC article also states that they expect Austin Rivers to declare.
.

Again, unsourced speculation, based on....well, not sure what it is based on. Look, I expect Austin to declare also. But there are actual things a player does and says regarding entering the draft early and for both Austin and Mason, they are in the same place they were yesterday.

Bluedog
03-22-2012, 01:40 PM
NBC affiliated with Bleacher Report? Wow. Have they brought any journalistic credibility to what previously was a forum for anyone to post anything and declare it "news" (based on the latest Williams/Plumlee thing, I'm suspecting not)?

It's not actually affiliated with Bleacher Report. I believe Bleacher Report just aggregates articles/links and puts them in a newsletter and the person above simply used that newsletter as the link. But NBC Sports is still its own entity and you can access the article via a direct non-Bleacher Report link:

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/22/mason-plumlee-to-forego-senior-year-enter-nba-draft/

Does seem like sloppy journalism....

pfrduke
03-22-2012, 01:41 PM
The NBC article also states that they expect Austin Rivers to declare.

*Sigh*

Oh well, no matter what the make-up of 2012-2013, it will be exciting.


NBC affiliated with Bleacher Report? Wow. Have they brought any journalistic credibility to what previously was a forum for anyone to post anything and declare it "news" (based on the latest Williams/Plumlee thing, I'm suspecting not)?

Further to the "let's all take this with a grain of salt" approach - the article on Mason was written by a guy named Daniel Martin (http://johnnyjungle.com/author/danmartin/). Mr. Martin is a junior at St. John's who runs the JohnnyJungle blog. He is a journalism major. The sole source for his story is the Jay Williams tweet, which for the reasons discussed above, appears to be an overreaction to (or an uncareful characterization of) the Herald Sun Article.

No offense to Mr. Martin, who I'm sure has a stellar career in journalism ahead of him, but my bet is that the next time he breaks news about a decision by a Duke player will be the first.

pfrduke
03-22-2012, 01:42 PM
It's not actually affiliated with Bleacher Report. I believe Bleacher Report just aggregates articles/links and puts them in a newsletter and the person above simply used that newsletter as the link. But NBC Sports is still its own entity and you can access the article via a direct non-Bleacher Report link:

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/22/mason-plumlee-to-forego-senior-year-enter-nba-draft/

Does seem like sloppy journalism....

Ah, I see, my mistake. Still, considering the author and the sources on which the author relies, I'm not sure there's a lot of there there. Now, I'm not saying with certainty that this will ultimately prove incorrect - Mason may well declare (Austin too). I just don't think the decision has yet been made.

CDu
03-22-2012, 01:44 PM
Further to the "let's all take this with a grain of salt" approach - the article on Mason was written by a guy named Daniel Martin (http://johnnyjungle.com/author/danmartin/). Mr. Martin is a junior at St. John's who runs the JohnnyJungle blog. He is a journalism major. The sole source for his story is the Jay Williams tweet, which for the reasons discussed above, appears to be an overreaction to (or an uncareful characterization of) the Herald Sun Article.

No offense to Mr. Martin, who I'm sure has a stellar career in journalism ahead of him, but my bet is that the next time he breaks news about a decision by a Duke player will be the first.

That all appears to be correct. Which raises a question: why is NBC posting links from an undergrad on the front page of their college basketball website? I'd expect poor journalism from an undergrad, but coming from NBC that's pretty bad.

CameronBornAndBred
03-22-2012, 01:51 PM
Further to the "let's all take this with a grain of salt" approach - the article on Mason was written by a guy named Daniel Martin (http://johnnyjungle.com/author/danmartin/). Mr. Martin is a junior at St. John's who runs the JohnnyJungle blog. He is a journalism major. The sole source for his story is the Jay Williams tweet, which for the reasons discussed above, appears to be an overreaction to (or an uncareful characterization of) the Herald Sun Article.

No offense to Mr. Martin, who I'm sure has a stellar career in journalism ahead of him, but my bet is that the next time he breaks news about a decision by a Duke player will be the first.
If you look at the "writer"'s archives, it is easy to see he loves spending time on unc (and our woes), so I'll take it with a baby blue grain of salt.
http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/author/danmartinstj/

Teton Jack
03-22-2012, 01:57 PM
Friends,

Hey, it's NBC. It's been a long time since it was the paragon of journalistic virtue - you can say that about a lot of networks and magazines that had tremendous reputations in the past. In our age of instant communications and wanting to be the first with a story, you can't blame anyone taking a piece of information and promoting it beyond itself. Very regretable. I hope they both stay but bless them for their contributions if they go.

DonnyDevil
03-22-2012, 02:20 PM
Mason is 2 classes away from graduating from Duke. If he can be a first round pick and gaurantee himself a nice paycheck in the league then by all means I think he should do it. If the league for some reason does not work out he is a summer session away from a degree from Duke University.

cape cod
03-22-2012, 02:38 PM
the implication is certainly clear that they have another (unnamed) source. Of course, it may be lousy reporting, or they may have more to go on than we know about.

FellowTraveler
03-22-2012, 02:45 PM
the implication is certainly clear that they have another (unnamed) source. Of course, it may be lousy reporting, or they may have more to go on than we know about.

I see no such implication. Not only is there not a quote of a second source, there is no paraphrase of such a source, or even so much as a passing, vague reference to the existence of one. What line in the piece do you read as an implication that there exists another source?

Also, there is now an update: "UPDATE 1:55 p.m.: Jeff Goodman of CBS is reporting that, though Plumlee may ultimately end up leaving for the NBA, he has not yet made a final decision."

So, again: I see no reason to think it's anything other than transparently lousy reporting.