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Newton_14
03-13-2012, 08:28 PM
Please use this thread to discuss Jefferson's recruitment. Please stay on topic.

Class of '94
03-13-2012, 10:20 PM
Originally Posted by dukedoc
The somewhat odd thing about Amile's recruitment recently (although it certainly doesn't approach the cumulative "oddness" of TP's recruitment) is that we've gone through multiple rounds of "the decision is on the brink". Most recently his Dad indicated that he would decide between last Friday and yesterday - i.e. pretty specific.

He hasn't announced so one needs to wonder if something has changed or come up recently. I presume that his father wouldn't put a clear timeline on the announcement unless they were pretty darn certain which way they were headed with this. The only things I've heard of that have happened recently are a visit back to Temple to tour their facilities, the recent performances of Duke and NCSU in the ACCT, and NCSU's inclusion in the tourney. I have a hard time believing that any of those things would be very impactful on his decision though.
Maybe the inclusion of Temple back into the Big East has given him second thoughts? I know the BE is still changing and could be in jeopardy of blowing up; but as of right now, with the inclusion of Memphos and Temple, the BE is still a pretty impressive basketball league even with Syracuse and Pitt leaving. And who knows, maybe NC State is giving one final push to say "here look at us, we made it to the tournament this year and we're going to be better next year. And depending on what Leslie does, you can help up us contend for the ACC and NC next year".

ice-9
03-13-2012, 10:35 PM
I'm wondering whether it could be Mason or Austin indicating to the staff that they will likely return next year, and that then having an impact on recruiting?

superdave
03-13-2012, 10:51 PM
My baseless speculative theorizing leads me to believe that Amile is waiting to see what happens with CJ Leslie and Mason Plumlee before deciding.

Can anyone prove or disprove that theory?

ChicagoCrazy84
03-14-2012, 02:10 AM
My baseless speculative theorizing leads me to believe that Amile is waiting to see what happens with CJ Leslie and Mason Plumlee before deciding.

Can anyone prove or disprove that theory?


I can only prove it with hearsay :)

It makes sense to me, but if that is the case, why at any point would they come out and say were going to make an announcement soon? If that were an important factor...and to me it is, why wouldn't they (he and his Dad) just say from the beginning that we will announce after the season is completed?

UrinalCake
03-14-2012, 10:15 AM
It makes sense to me, but if that is the case, why at any point would they come out and say were going to make an announcement soon? If that were an important factor...and to me it is, why wouldn't they (he and his Dad) just say from the beginning that we will announce after the season is completed?

Maybe he wasn't expecting State to make the tournament, so they figured they could talk to the State coaching staff this week and get a feel for whether Leslie was going to stay? Just tossing out ideas here.

westwall
03-14-2012, 04:27 PM
This is an Amile Jefferson thread (not a C J Leslie thread). Can we PLEASE keep it that way??

superdave
03-14-2012, 04:54 PM
Is there anything to indicate Amile would pick a team other than Duke or State? Any good evidence for Nova or another?

mkline09
03-14-2012, 06:35 PM
I'll be honest the idea of him continuing to wait only convinces me that this poor young man hasn't the slightest idea where he wants to go. Wasn't it Zag's Blog who recently said it seemed a committment to Duke seemed near. I think, and this is just my gut feeling, that if he was ready to make any decision he'd have made it. Obviously the continued delay in his announcement only means he needs more time to make up his mind. He is a kid so I guess we should expect some indecisiveness. It is only nautral.

UrinalCake
03-15-2012, 11:22 AM
This is an Amile Jefferson thread (not a C J Leslie thread). Can we PLEASE keep it that way??

Well my post concerning Leslie was a continuation of our discussion that Jefferson might be waiting to see what Leslie does before deciding, thus the timing of his decision. I think that's pretty on topic.

dukedoc
03-18-2012, 12:17 AM
There have been some varied rumors floating around today, many of which seemed to suggest Amile was going to announce for NCSU soon. It's been hard to tell truth from fiction (as per usual). It seems many of our Duke-fan-brethren (particular those who frequent the other boards) are in a paranoid-negativity phase in the wake of our loss last night. FWIW,

PackInsider.com ‏ @PackInsider
There were some Amile Jefferson rumors floating around earlier today, but we have confirmed that the NC State staff believes hes still 50/50

Anyone hear anything with any greater substance and semblance of value other than these various rumors?

dukedoc
03-19-2012, 08:29 PM
Amile visited by the Mickey D's crew in celebration of his honor LINK (http://mainlinemedianews.com/articles/2012/03/19/sports/doc4f67898ab0267321539998.txt)

"I definitely have ideas [about where I want to go]," said Jefferson, who added, with a smile, "The problem is, those ideas change every day. I think it's because it's about the biggest decision I've had to make. I'm thinking about it all the time - in fact, I'm thinking about it right now. Hopefully, [my thought process] will lead to a decision real soon."

roywhite
03-19-2012, 08:52 PM
Lance Thomas is the recent Duke player who seems most similar to Amile Jefferson.

As I recall, Lance's recruitment also stretched waaay out and he didn't announce until May.
So we'll see how it plays out.

loldevilz
03-19-2012, 09:19 PM
Lance Thomas is the recent Duke player who seems most similar to Amile Jefferson.

As I recall, Lance's recruitment also stretched waaay out and he didn't announce until May.
So we'll see how it plays out.

Coach K should call up Amile every day (if that's legal) and remind him that Lance Thomas is in the NBA. Lance doesn't have half the skill set of Amile, but he developed at Duke into a great defender. Come to Duke Amile!

BlueDevilBrowns
03-19-2012, 09:26 PM
Coach K should call up Amile every day (if that's legal) and remind him that Lance Thomas is in the NBA. Lance doesn't have half the skill set of Amile, but he developed at Duke into a great defender. Come to Duke Amile!

If Amile has twice the skill set of Lance, then I have seriously underestimated Mr. Jefferson. What about Amile's game that you've seen suggests he is completely superior to Lance at the same stage in their careers?

dukedoc
03-20-2012, 10:54 PM
At least our staff is using the time gained from our early tourney exit productively

TheDevilsDen.com ‏ @TheDevilsDen
Duke coaches flew North today for a visit with Mr.Jefferson.

Greg_Newton
03-20-2012, 11:15 PM
If Amile has twice the skill set of Lance, then I have seriously underestimated Mr. Jefferson. What about Amile's game that you've seen suggests he is completely superior to Lance at the same stage in their careers?

I think Lance was probably a little quicker/stronger and more of a scrapper, physically, but I think Amile is pretty clearly a superior scorer. The guy led the NBPA Top 100 camp in scoring last summer, and that camp had pretty much anybody who was anybody: http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/06/nba-top-100-camp-scoring-leaders-recaps-2/

Kedsy
03-21-2012, 12:37 AM
I think Lance was probably a little quicker/stronger and more of a scrapper, physically, but I think Amile is pretty clearly a superior scorer. The guy led the NBPA Top 100 camp in scoring last summer, and that camp had pretty much anybody who was anybody: http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/06/nba-top-100-camp-scoring-leaders-recaps-2/

Amile scores 17.5 ppg. Lance scored 14.5 ppg in his senior year of high school. So Amile's probably a better scorer, but I don't think we know if he is "clearly superior."

oldnavy
03-21-2012, 11:14 AM
Amile scores 17.5 ppg. Lance scored 14.5 ppg in his senior year of high school. So Amile's probably a better scorer, but I don't think we know if he is "clearly superior."

Well to know for sure, you would have to compare more than just ppg, you would need to look at the teams they played on and competed against to draw much of a conclusion. I mean if Lance was playing against really tough competition and Amile was in a patsy league or vice versa.....

Also, did either have another stud player on their team that shared in scoring????

See what I mean....

Jderf
03-21-2012, 11:28 AM
Well to know for sure, you would have to compare more than just ppg, you would need to look at the teams they played on and competed against to draw much of a conclusion. I mean if Lance was playing against really tough competition and Amile was in a patsy league or vice versa.....

Also, did either have another stud player on their team that shared in scoring????

See what I mean....

Yeah. It is just very hard to reliably evaluate a player's scoring ability (or any ability, really) coming out of highschool. The level of competition and style of play are just too wildly different to know which skills will translate and which will not. Even sure things (see: Barnes, Harrison) don't always pan out or transition as fluidly as expected. And sometimes the opposite happens, and an unheralded recruit blows everyone out of the water.

I guess this is why it is common to see player comparisons that stretch a recruit's potential beyond all reason. A player can be the next Dunleavy, the next Singler, the next Boozer, and flat-out overrated -- all at the same time.

So will Amile prove to be a better scorer than Lance? If I had to guess, I would say probably; but we won't know the answer to that question for a long time.

Olympic Fan
03-21-2012, 11:30 AM
I have no idea whether Amile Jefferson is better/worse/the same than Lance Thomas

I do know that they are rated EXACTLY the same place in the RSCI (which averages recruiting ratings): No. 20

Of course, that doesn't mean that they are exactly the same -- is the Class of 2012 better or worse than the Class of 2006 (which included Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Ty Lawson ... and at No. 28 John Scheyer)?

Still, I think it's fair to suggest they are similar prospects in terms of impact.

The point I want to make is that if any of you remember this board in the spring of 2006 when we were waiting on Lance to make his decision, he suddenly became the greatest, most important recruit in Duke history. He was being projected as a program changer ... everybody had him projected into the 2006-07 starting lineup. I said then -- and I suggest now -- that late recruits are almost ALWAYS overrated by the fans.

Jefferson, like Thomas, is a nice prospect and I'm sure he'll add a lot to our program. But if you think he's a kid who's going to come in and have a major impact from Day One, I suspect you are fooling yourself. I know one prominent recruiting guru who likes Jefferson, but says he's not ready to be a major competitor on the college level -- physically he's probably closer to the young Ryan Kelly than the young Lance Thomas.

Well, Lance became a key member of our national championship team -- his senior year. Ryan became a contributor as a sophomore and a key contributor as a junior.

Please try to keep the pursuit of Mr. Jefferson in perspective. I'd love to have him join the program, but unless a lot of recruiting guys are wrong (and that's possible), he's not an immediate game-changer. In terms of next year's team, Tony Parker would be a far more significant get (since he fills a glaring need). Shabazz Mohammad would be a far, far more significant get -- he IS a game-changer.

watzone
03-21-2012, 11:40 AM
Amile has a bit of a throw back game in that he has some mid range game. He's not a blow you away athlete but smooth in his movements with a good basketball IQ. He is a better prospect than Lance Thomas was and he lacks a bit if the tenacity Thomas had. He's the type of kid Duke hasn't had in a while and is tougher than he looks, for he is on the slim side in that he's never lifted weights. That alone means the transition at any school will be tough in that the physical nature of the game is an adjustment. I have seen Jefferson play about 12 times and he's a player and the kind of guy you want on your roster. He is not the PF type Duke could use, but he is actually listed as a PF by many in the know on the recruiting front. The bottom line is he's a baller and would add some length to the team. Duke is in very good shape for his services.

watzone
03-21-2012, 11:42 AM
I think Lance was probably a little quicker/stronger and more of a scrapper, physically, but I think Amile is pretty clearly a superior scorer. The guy led the NBPA Top 100 camp in scoring last summer, and that camp had pretty much anybody who was anybody: http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/06/nba-top-100-camp-scoring-leaders-recaps-2/

And he was impressive, but it is worth noting that he played on one of the two worst teams in the NBA Top 100. Amile blends in and that's part of his value.

Kedsy
03-21-2012, 12:38 PM
Well to know for sure, you would have to compare more than just ppg, you would need to look at the teams they played on and competed against to draw much of a conclusion. I mean if Lance was playing against really tough competition and Amile was in a patsy league or vice versa.....

Also, did either have another stud player on their team that shared in scoring????

See what I mean....

Yes, I know that. I'm no expert on high school ball, but I get the impression that St. Benedict (where Lance went) plays tougher competition than Friends Central (where Amile goes). That's why I made the comment I did.


The point I want to make is that if any of you remember this board in the spring of 2006 when we were waiting on Lance to make his decision, he suddenly became the greatest, most important recruit in Duke history. He was being projected as a program changer ... everybody had him projected into the 2006-07 starting lineup. I said then -- and I suggest now -- that late recruits are almost ALWAYS overrated by the fans.

I agree with you in general and suspect that Amile (if he comes to Duke) won't play much next season. That said, the people who projected Lance into the 2006-07 starting lineup were right. He started 18 games that season.

oldnavy
03-21-2012, 01:09 PM
Yes, I know that. I'm no expert on high school ball, but I get the impression that St. Benedict (where Lance went) plays tougher competition than Friends Central (where Amile goes). That's why I made the comment I did.



I agree with you in general and suspect that Amile (if he comes to Duke) won't play much next season. That said, the people who projected Lance into the 2006-07 starting lineup were right. He started 18 games that season.

I figured you did... just couldn't help myself, I'm in one of those moods today. ;)

dukedoc
03-21-2012, 01:49 PM
Amile has a bit of a throw back game in that he has some mid range game. He's not a blow you away athlete but smooth in his movements with a good basketball IQ. He is a better prospect than Lance Thomas was and he lacks a bit if the tenacity Thomas had. He's the type of kid Duke hasn't had in a while and is tougher than he looks, for he is on the slim side in that he's never lifted weights. That alone means the transition at any school will be tough in that the physical nature of the game is an adjustment. I have seen Jefferson play about 12 times and he's a player and the kind of guy you want on your roster. He is not the PF type Duke could use, but he is actually listed as a PF by many in the know on the recruiting front. The bottom line is he's a baller and would add some length to the team. Duke is in very good shape for his services.

Thanks, Watzone, for your insights. Glad to hear we are still well positioned. I am excited about the prospect of having Amile come on board. After a far-too-early tourney exit and given the fairly long hiatus since our first/last 2012 commitment, I am prone (like many others) to view even average Joe prospects as very desirable, well beyond their actual merit. I've tried to be cognizant of that tendency in thinking about Amile, and I genuinely think Amile is a high quality prospect and could be a true difference maker if he were to come aboard, perhaps not as much as a freshman but certainly later in his college tenure. Thanks as always, Watzone.

Greg_Newton
03-21-2012, 04:28 PM
Amile scores 17.5 ppg. Lance scored 14.5 ppg in his senior year of high school. So Amile's probably a better scorer, but I don't think we know if he is "clearly superior."

Well, first of all, Amile's team usually only scores in the 40s-50s, which makes that number a little more impressive. St. Benedicts routinely scored in the 70s-90s during that time period, so it's a whole different number of possessions.

Second, my point is that Lance never did anything close to that against the top 100 players in the country, HS averages aside. We saw that Lance's scoring struggled to translate somewhat against elite teams and talent; Amile's proven he can more than hold his own in that respect.

-bdbd
03-21-2012, 04:54 PM
Amile has a bit of a throw back game in that he has some mid range game. He's not a blow you away athlete but smooth in his movements with a good basketball IQ. He is a better prospect than Lance Thomas was and he lacks a bit if the tenacity Thomas had. He's the type of kid Duke hasn't had in a while and is tougher than he looks, for he is on the slim side in that he's never lifted weights. That alone means the transition at any school will be tough in that the physical nature of the game is an adjustment. I have seen Jefferson play about 12 times and he's a player and the kind of guy you want on your roster. He is not the PF type Duke could use, but he is actually listed as a PF by many in the know on the recruiting front. The bottom line is he's a baller and would add some length to the team. Duke is in very good shape for his services.

Watzone, you are SUCH a tease! ;)

Any more word from the coaches' visit up to Philly this week? Any better indication of WHEN news of the announcement variety might be expected?
:confused:

I take Olympic's and Watzone's (and other) posts to heart. This is not Kyrie Irving we're talking about here, who was able to come in and have huge impact from day one. But he is a top-20 consensus recruit, and quite importantly fills a clear need on this team for next year - that being versatile "length" and some size. My sense is that he's a good "chemistry" guy, a la Shane Battier (though maybe not quite with those physical abilities yet).

luvdahops
03-22-2012, 03:42 PM
Watzone, you are SUCH a tease! ;)

Any more word from the coaches' visit up to Philly this week? Any better indication of WHEN news of the announcement variety might be expected?
:confused:

I take Olympic's and Watzone's (and other) posts to heart. This is not Kyrie Irving we're talking about here, who was able to come in and have huge impact from day one. But he is a top-20 consensus recruit, and quite importantly fills a clear need on this team for next year - that being versatile "length" and some size. My sense is that he's a good "chemistry" guy, a la Shane Battier (though maybe not quite with those physical abilities yet).

FWIW, Brick Oettinger (ACC Sports Journal), who is far and away the best recruiting analyst out there in my view, has Amile at #8 in the class, and has said that he would be a perfect fit for Duke. Brick also has Parker at #14, a bit higher than some other analysts.

Kedsy
03-22-2012, 03:44 PM
FWIW, Brick Oettinger (ACC Sports Journal), who is far and away the best recruiting analyst out there in my view, has Amile at #8 in the class, and has said that he would be a perfect fit for Duke. Brick also has Parker at #14, a bit higher than some other analysts.

This is why I prefer the RSCI. It averages all the major recruiting services, so that you don't put too much weight on one outlier opinion.

luvdahops
03-22-2012, 03:45 PM
Amile has a bit of a throw back game in that he has some mid range game. He's not a blow you away athlete but smooth in his movements with a good basketball IQ. He is a better prospect than Lance Thomas was and he lacks a bit if the tenacity Thomas had. He's the type of kid Duke hasn't had in a while and is tougher than he looks, for he is on the slim side in that he's never lifted weights. That alone means the transition at any school will be tough in that the physical nature of the game is an adjustment. I have seen Jefferson play about 12 times and he's a player and the kind of guy you want on your roster. He is not the PF type Duke could use, but he is actually listed as a PF by many in the know on the recruiting front. The bottom line is he's a baller and would add some length to the team. Duke is in very good shape for his services.

Sounds a bit like Antonio Lang - is that a fair comp?

luvdahops
03-22-2012, 03:50 PM
This is why I prefer the RSCI. It averages all the major recruiting services, so that you don't put too much weight on one outlier opinion.

I hear you, though I would say that some opinions are more credible than others. I have been following recruiting for nearly 30 years (and have subscribed to the Sports Journal/Poop Sheet for about that long), and would stack up Oettinger's track record against anyone's. FWIW, I believe the Duke staff places more value on his opinions than on those of other analysts/services. Not that they place a lot, mind you, and certainly more on his descriptions and evaluations rather than ratings per se.

dukedoc
03-26-2012, 10:00 PM
I missed Amile in the skills competition tonight but I heard good things. Anyone able to offer some insights as to how he did? Love the notion of a relative big in the skill comp.

dukedoc
03-27-2012, 05:51 PM
An Amile interview from the McDonald's festivities LINK (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-slobfy7hP8&feature=youtu.be)

There's a lot of ambient noise in the video and I couldn't turn the volume up too high here at work, but I believe I heard "unbelievable" interspersed with "Coach K" and "Duke" a couple times. Sounds good.

CDu
03-27-2012, 05:57 PM
An Amile interview from the McDonald's festivities LINK (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-slobfy7hP8&feature=youtu.be)

There's a lot of ambient noise in the video and I couldn't turn the volume up too high here at work, but I believe I heard "unbelievable" interspersed with "Coach K" and "Duke" a couple times. Sounds good.

Definitely had some nice things to say about Coach K. Talked about how Duke combines both academics and basketball. He also had lots of positive things to say about NC State. I'm always nervous when I hear someone drop a reference to UK and Calipari and talk about how that program would be "unbelievable." But I certainly like that he specifically mentioned Duke twice, called Coach K the greatest and and said it would be a dream to play for him someday. Can't complain with that.

_Gary
03-27-2012, 06:05 PM
I love our chances with him after hearing that interview! He sounded extremely high on Duke!!

ChillinDuke
03-27-2012, 06:28 PM
An Amile interview from the McDonald's festivities LINK (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-slobfy7hP8&feature=youtu.be)

There's a lot of ambient noise in the video and I couldn't turn the volume up too high here at work, but I believe I heard "unbelievable" interspersed with "Coach K" and "Duke" a couple times. Sounds good.

Certainly sounded high on Duke! But I guess you never really know til you know, you know?

- Chillin

gumbomoop
03-27-2012, 06:41 PM
I missed Amile in the skills competition tonight but I heard good things. Anyone able to offer some insights as to how he did? Love the notion of a relative big in the skill comp.

He was in the finals, so that means of the 7 or 8 guys who chose to compete in that one [as opposed to 3-bomb or slam competition], he was top 3.

He finished 3d in finals, because he lost many seconds in missing all 5 of his 3-pt tries from top of key. I'm not surprised by that, as when I saw him previously, he didn't "drift" out to the 3-pt line. Sometimes he started out there, but usually to take his man off the dribble, often toward the baseline, where his handle and footwork were advantages.

So my previous impression was pretty much reinforced, in that the skills comp required good footwork and handle. I must say, he and others carried the ball a lot when weaving around obstacles. I don't recall that he was the worst offender.

mkline09
03-27-2012, 06:52 PM
Certainly sounded high on Duke! But I guess you never really know til you know, you know?

- Chillin

Really liked the fact that he mentioned Duke and I was happy to hear he is very interested in what Duke can offer him as a student and not just as a basketball player. I think he has a lot of respect for Duke as an academic institution which is always good to hear from kids these days.

bradvinjack
03-27-2012, 08:18 PM
I am extremely impressed with Amile. Out of our 3 main targets remaining I would love for us to land this kid. He seems like the type than can be a impact player but would not be trying to jump straight to the league and would be a great 3 or 4 year guy that would buy in to what K is trying to teach him. Not many high school students are that worried about the academic side of what most schools can offer. Any recruit with that much talent that also values a great education would be a great fit at Duke. This kid seems to have a really good head on his shoulders, here's hoping he picks the Blue Devils.

dukedoc
03-27-2012, 08:35 PM
I am extremely impressed with Amile. Out of our 3 main targets remaining I would love for us to land this kid. He seems like the type than can be a impact player but would not be trying to jump straight to the league and would be a great 3 or 4 year guy that would buy in to what K is trying to teach him. Not many high school students are that worried about the academic side of what most schools can offer. Any recruit with that much talent that also values a great education would be a great fit at Duke. This kid seems to have a really good head on his shoulders, here's hoping he picks the Blue Devils.

I completely agree. He is the classic example of a young man who offers intangibles. He seems like the kind of guy who is not only individually talented, but who would also be a great teammate. I hope we get him.

I like his emphasis on academics. A lot of these guys talk about academics, but it seems like they do so only because someone told them to do so, but for whatever reason, I believe Amile when he says it's a key priority for him. That obviously would appear to bode well for us.

moonpie23
03-27-2012, 08:55 PM
i would be ecstatic when and if i see him in a duke uni....

Dukehky
03-27-2012, 10:55 PM
Those big doughy puppy dog eyes are tuggin at my heart strings.

Liked what I heard about Duke, I think that if Leslie were to leave though, State would be really hard for him to turn down.

CDu
03-27-2012, 11:10 PM
Those big doughy puppy dog eyes are tuggin at my heart strings.

Liked what I heard about Duke, I think that if Leslie were to leave though, State would be really hard for him to turn down.

Yeah, it is my humble opinion that our chances lie with Leslie's decision.

juise
03-27-2012, 11:17 PM
Yeah, it is my humble opinion that our chances lie with Leslie's decision.

I haven't been following Amile incredibly closely, but I wasn't under the impression that he's a certain one-and-done player. What indication do we have that his decision would hinge on the availability of playing time during one (freshman) year? If he's interested in academics, wouldn't that indicate a longer stay? Or is this just based on a feel that he likes State and playing time would seal the deal?

CDu
03-27-2012, 11:21 PM
I haven't been following Amile incredibly closely, but I wasn't under the impression that he's a certain one-and-done player. What indication do we have that his decision would hinge on the availability of playing time during one (freshman) year? If he's interested in academics, wouldn't that indicate a longer stay? Or is this just based on a feel that he likes State and playing time would seal the deal?

I didn't mean to suggest he is one and done at all. Just that the playing time factor shifts significantly from in our favor if Leslie stays to against us if Leslie leaves. Jefferson would have to REALLY like Duke over State to turn down a sure starting spot right away there (if Leslie leaves).

COYS
03-27-2012, 11:21 PM
I haven't been following Amile incredibly closely, but I wasn't under the impression that he's a certain one-and-done player. What indication do we have that his decision would hinge on the availability of playing time during one (freshman) year? If he's interested in academics, wouldn't that indicate a longer stay? Or is this just based on a feel that he likes State and playing time would seal the deal?

I'm curious about this, too. Yes, if Leslie leaves he might start at State next season. On the other hand, Mason is DEFINITELY gone after next year if he doesn't leave this year. Ryan will be gone, too, leaving a sophomore Amile in great shape for playing time. It's also unlikely that he would be any more the focus of State's offense than he will be Duke's considering that the Pack have a ton of talented scorers coming in soon. I can certainly understand if he thinks State might provide more certainty WRT playing time, but I think he'd be fine at Duke, too, even if we add another big guy to the fold.

Dukehky
03-27-2012, 11:22 PM
I mean, State isn't an awful school, it's certainly not on the Duke level, but its still worth a lot. And if your choice is between two schools who will on paper, probably be equally as talented, or at least close, and you have the opportunity to go in and play right away in a system that has shown to enhance one with the talents of Amile and Calvin Leslie, then its not a clear cut decision even if he wants to stay for a while. He also mentioned that Rodney Purvis is a good friend and roommate of his on the road. Not to mention the fact that Tyler Lewis looks really, really good as a point guard. State certainly has a lot to offer him, especially if Leslie leaves. Gottfried is doing a hell of a job and its nice to be a part of a rising team who used to be great and the State fans appreciate if they get to the Sweet Sixteen.

I think Amile would do very well at both schools and certainly hope that he comes to Duke, but NC State is a serious player again, and to be perfectly honest, I like that, even though I wouldn't like to lose "head to head" recruiting battles with them.

BlueDevilBrowns
04-04-2012, 10:58 PM
Don't know how earth-shattering this "breaking news" is but Evan Daniels at scout.com tweeted today:

"Amile Jefferson is looking at 4 schools -- NCSU, Duke, UK, NOVA. Decision soon..."

ncexnyc
04-04-2012, 11:23 PM
Don't know how earth-shattering this "breaking news" is but Evan Daniels at scout.com tweeted today:

"Amile Jefferson is looking at 4 schools -- NCSU, Duke, UK, NOVA. Decision soon..."

I'm somewhat surprised to see he still has UK on his list. With Cauley and Poythress in the fold and possibly Noel as well there isn't much room left for him.

mr. synellinden
04-04-2012, 11:45 PM
Just saw this tweet, which was retweeted by Evan Daniels:

Amile Jefferson, 6-9 F, tells WLKY he's heard from UK. Says Kenny Payne called and hinted Cats would lose all 6 primary players.

Kedsy
04-05-2012, 12:50 AM
Just saw this tweet, which was retweeted by Evan Daniels:

Amile Jefferson, 6-9 F, tells WLKY he's heard from UK. Says Kenny Payne called and hinted Cats would lose all 6 primary players.

Coach Calipari said much the same thing the other day, in an article linked from the DBR main page. Although in a different article (not sure where I read it, so sorry no link) he also said none of his kids had made their decisions yet and might not make them until April 29.

ncexnyc
04-05-2012, 12:58 AM
Coach Calipari said much the same thing the other day, in an article linked from the DBR main page. Although in a different article (not sure where I read it, so sorry no link) he also said none of his kids had made their decisions yet and might not make them until April 29.
Yes, I also read that article and Calipari basically said the NCAA date was meaningless, or at least that's the way it came across to me.

Here's the article:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/basketball/ncaa/mens-tournament/2012/04/03/kentucky.wildcats.nba.ap/index.html

dukedoc
04-05-2012, 08:14 AM
This interview is a bit "old" - was done before the McDAA game - but I didn't see it linked. It offers another nice glimpse of how thoughtful and well-spoken Amile is. VIDEO (http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7756275)

MCFinARL
04-05-2012, 08:42 AM
Yes, I also read that article and Calipari basically said the NCAA date was meaningless, or at least that's the way it came across to me.

Here's the article:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/basketball/ncaa/mens-tournament/2012/04/03/kentucky.wildcats.nba.ap/index.html

One interesting note about this article--the writer said Darius Miller was noncommittal about his plans for next season. Pretty interesting considering Miller is a senior. Reporting a little sloppy.

Re Calipari's remarks, though, I assume the article is accurate. And his position makes perfect sense--if your players are as high-profile as these Kentucky players, they can get a pretty good idea of where they might go in the draft without "declaring" and participating in the formal "advisory committee" process. So they can just remain undeclared, and eligible to stay in school should they decide to, until the last possible date, which is April 29.

UrinalCake
04-05-2012, 10:34 AM
Coach Calipari said... none of his kids had made their decisions yet and might not make them until April 29.

Well this could get interesting. If all the current Kentucky players wait up until the later deadline, what happens to the recruits? Do they push back making a decision too? Can they even do that? Or will they go based on their best estimation of what will happen based on what the coaching staff tells them?

I'd be surprised if Calipari doesn't push the current guys to announce their intentions sooner rather than later. It goes with the territory with the system they run.

CDu
04-05-2012, 10:36 AM
Well this could get interesting. If all the current Kentucky players wait up until the later deadline, what happens to the recruits? Do they push back making a decision too? Can they even do that? Or will they go based on their best estimation of what will happen based on what the coaching staff tells them?

I'd be surprised if Calipari doesn't push the current guys to announce their intentions sooner rather than later. It goes with the territory with the system they run.

Yes, the recruits can wait much longer than April 29 to make a decision. Or have you already forgotten about the recruitments of Lance Thomas and DeAndre Daniels (to name just a few)? I suspect that, if the recruits were planning to decide on April 11 because they presumed that was the date that underclassmen would have declared, they'll just wait longer to decide.

El_Diablo
04-05-2012, 10:38 AM
Well this could get interesting. If all the current Kentucky players wait up until the later deadline, what happens to the recruits? Do they push back making a decision too? Can they even do that? Or will they go based on their best estimation of what will happen based on what the coaching staff tells them?

I'd be surprised if Calipari doesn't push the current guys to announce their intentions sooner rather than later. It goes with the territory with the system they run.

Yes, they can delay if they want. The late signing period goes until May 16. And if they choose to wait beyond that, they can still just enroll in the school of their choice sometime over the summer without ever signing an LOI.

EDIT: Sorry, CDu beat me to it.

BlueDevilBrowns
04-08-2012, 10:59 AM
Amile had some cool stuff to say about Duke and Coach K as well as a comment on UK, too.

LINK:http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2012/04/08/amile-jefferson-impresses-at-derby-festival-classic-remains-undecided/#utm_source=feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=feed

IMO, he just seems to be a great fit for Duke, maybe even more than TP. I'll definately be disappointed if he goes elsewhere.

Devilsfan
04-08-2012, 12:24 PM
Hope we land at least one of the three recruits we are recruiting for next year.

Andre Buckner Fan
04-09-2012, 02:37 PM
Hope we land at least one of the three recruits we are recruiting for next year.

I know it's heresy to say it, but I'm more interested in us recruiting Jefferson rather than Shabazz. (Not that the two are mutually exclusive.) I've soured a bit on the yearly drive to get the number one recruit. These recruits are never awful, but often there's just a world of hype attached to them that no college player should have to play under. And few justify their hype.

Year after year, the real college standouts usually seem to be in the top twenty-five recruits but not always the top three.

ChicagoCrazy84
04-09-2012, 03:12 PM
I know it's heresy to say it, but I'm more interested in us recruiting Jefferson rather than Shabazz. (Not that the two are mutually exclusive.) I've soured a bit on the yearly drive to get the number one recruit. These recruits are never awful, but often there's just a world of hype attached to them that no college player should have to play under. And few justify their hype.

Year after year, the real college standouts usually seem to be in the top twenty-five recruits but not always the top three.


Agreed, the past 5 years there are some odd circumstances surrounding some of the most hyped recruits (BJ Mullens, Samardo Samuels, Enes Kanter, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday, Xavier Henry, Josh Selby). I'm glad we got we we got with Kyrie and Austin, but I bet Amile would be a very good get.

SilkyJ
04-09-2012, 04:08 PM
I know it's heresy to say it, but I'm more interested in us recruiting Jefferson rather than Shabazz. (Not that the two are mutually exclusive.) I've soured a bit on the yearly drive to get the number one recruit. These recruits are never awful, but often there's just a world of hype attached to them that no college player should have to play under. And few justify their hype.

You may have a point about "justifying their hype," but that's as much the media's fault for generating it, and your own fault for buying into the hype. Putting HB on a preseason All-AA team? That was silly. Kid was GREAT as a freshman, but no one deserves that much hype short of Lebron, so you should be smart enough to not buy into it.



Year after year, the real college standouts usually seem to be in the top twenty-five recruits but not always the top three.

A ridiculous claim. See below. The top 3 produces a ton of college studs.

Relatedly, Kedsy has broken down this data time and time again for when people think recruits will start at Duke and when they won't and the OVERHWELMING conclusion is there is a MARKED difference between a top 3-5 player and basically anyone else, at least in terms of players Duke recruits. The data below has similar themes.


Agreed, the past 5 years there are some odd circumstances surrounding some of the most hyped recruits (BJ Mullens, Samardo Samuels, Enes Kanter, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday, Xavier Henry, Josh Selby). I'm glad we got we we got with Kyrie and Austin, but I bet Amile would be a very good get.

Well I disagree, and the data supports me. Let's look at RSCI top 3 for past few years and you tell me these guys aren't studs. (BTW, only 2 of the guys you mention are top 3 guys: Jrue and Jennings, with Samardo being #4, so your subjective assertion that these other guys were "the most hyped" seems off-base.)

Class of 2011
1. Anthony Davis
2. Austin
3. Michael Gilchrist

No overhyping here. AD and MG will be top 5 picks and Austin is a likely lottery pick, All-ACC and ACC ROY, who was just the 1st freshman to lead Duke in scoring since 1986. Sounds like hype was about right.

Class of 2010
1. Harrison
T-2. Kyrie
T-2. Sullinger

You can quibble if you want, and claim that HB is overhyped, which I would even grant, but I would point you to my first paragraph above about buying into media hype.

Bottomline: these guys are all flatout college studs that would start on ANY team in the country, PERIOD, and will all be lottery picks. Kyrie was the #1 overall pick. Harrison was the leading scorer 2 years in a row on an elite 8 team both years and is a likely top 5 pick in the draft, certainly a lock for the top 10. Sullinger was the leading scorer and rebounder on a final four team and All-AA his Freshman and Sophomore years (HB was honorable mention both years).

(Quibble if you must about how HB didn't bring a championship to Franklin St, and seemed to not want to play inside...and there's obviously lots of ragging we can do on the kid for being so concerned with his "brand"....Sullinger would have been a top 5 or 3 pick last year and hurt his stock in the tournament this year, but again he's the top scorer and rebounder on a final four team, and 2 time 1st team AA. I think these guys are bonafide college studs.)

Class of 2009
1. Derrick Favors
2. John Wall
3. Demarcus Cousins

No overhyping here, these guys went 1,3,5 in the 2010 draft with Wall and Cousins being 1st team AA and Favors being ACC ROY. Sound like college studs to me.

Class of 2008
1. Brandon Jennings
2. Jrue Holiday
3. Tyreke Evans

- BJ did not play in college so n/a.
- Jrue Holiday is the first non college stud on this list, and even he had a very solid year averaging 8.5 pts, 4rebs, and 3 asts in a crowded UCLA backcourt where he had to defer to seniors Darren Collison and Josh Shipp, while also playing off the ball.
- Tyreke Evans was a stud as the leading scorer on a Memphis team that won 33 games and was the #4 pick overall
- You mentioned Samardo Samuels who was #4 on the RSCI -- he averaged 12 & 5 his freshman year, very good numbers, in a crowded frontcourt that included Earl Clark and Terrence Williams (averaging a combined 26 & 18/game), then led the team as a sophomore in rebounding and scoring. He went undrafted as he's undersized and not terribly athletic, but he was pretty darn good college player.

Class of 2007
1. OJ Mayo
2. Kevin Love
3. Eric Gordon

No over hyping here. All 3 were top 10 picks in the 08 draft and all were major studs for their teams.

So that's 2 potential guys out of 16: Jrue Holiday and Samardo Samuels that weren't studs, with Samuels being a very good player. I'd say the top 3 produces some winners.

UrinalCake
04-09-2012, 04:27 PM
Nice breakdown SilkyJ. IMO the only reasons to NOT want a top 3-5 player are a.) if you are conceptually or morally opposed to players who go one-and-done b.) if you think that having a player come in just for a year negatively affects the team in the long run, because other guys don't come or don't develop who could make contributions over a longer period of time.

Both of these are completely valid reasons for not wanting to go after players like Shabazz. But to say that lower ranked players are better is ridiculous. Yes there are exceptions to the rule but as Silky and others have said, if you want a guy that's going to step onto campus and be an immediate impact guy, he's probably going to have to be ranked in the top 5.

superdave
04-09-2012, 04:32 PM
Class of 2008
1. Brandon Jennings
2. Jrue Holiday
3. Tyreke Evans

- BJ did not play in college so n/a.
- Jrue Holiday is the first non college stud on this list, and even he had a very solid year averaging 8.5 pts, 4rebs, and 3 asts in a crowded UCLA backcourt where he had to defer to seniors Darren Collison and Josh Shipp, while also playing off the ball.
- Tyreke Evans was a stud as the leading scorer on a Memphis team that won 33 games and was the #4 pick overall


Jrue Holiday (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3995/jrue-holiday) plays 34 minutes per game on the playoff-bound 76ers. He averages more points than both Andre Igoudala and Elton Brand. I'd say he's a stud, even if he was taking a backseat to Darren Collison while in college.

dcar1985
04-09-2012, 04:43 PM
Jrue Holiday (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3995/jrue-holiday) plays 34 minutes per game on the playoff-bound 76ers. He averages more points than both Andre Igoudala and Elton Brand. I'd say he's a stud, even if he was taking a backseat to Darren Collison while in college.

Pretty sure the op was talking about during their time in college...

superdave
04-09-2012, 04:54 PM
I'd say he's a stud, even if he was taking a backseat to Darren Collison while in college.


Pretty sure the op was talking about during their time in college...

Yes, Jrue was a point guard who got stuck behind senior and 3-time Final Four point Guard Darren Collison during his only season in college.

mr. synellinden
04-09-2012, 04:59 PM
I know it's heresy to say it, but I'm more interested in us recruiting Jefferson rather than Shabazz. (Not that the two are mutually exclusive.) I've soured a bit on the yearly drive to get the number one recruit. These recruits are never awful, but often there's just a world of hype attached to them that no college player should have to play under. And few justify their hype.

Year after year, the real college standouts usually seem to be in the top twenty-five recruits but not always the top three.

I think if you watched Shabazz play in the two recent televised games (hoops summit/McD) you would feel differently. This guy appears to be a game changing talent along the lines of a Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis or Derrick Rose. I think he has a good chance to be the NCAA player of the year next year and the first pick in the 2013 draft (at worst 2nd behind Noel). He would probably be the #2 pick this year.

With him, we're a top 5 team next year. Without him, regardless of whether Parker or Jefferson come, we're in the 12 - 18 range.

bradvinjack
04-09-2012, 05:41 PM
You may have a point about "justifying their hype," but that's as much the media's fault for generating it, and your own fault for buying into the hype. Putting HB on a preseason All-AA team? That was silly. Kid was GREAT as a freshman, but no one deserves that much hype short of Lebron, so you should be smart enough to not buy into it.



A ridiculous claim. See below. The top 3 produces a ton of college studs.

Relatedly, Kedsy has broken down this data time and time again for when people think recruits will start at Duke and when they won't and the OVERHWELMING conclusion is there is a MARKED difference between a top 3-5 player and basically anyone else, at least in terms of players Duke recruits. The data below has similar themes.



Well I disagree, and the data supports me. Let's look at RSCI top 3 for past few years and you tell me these guys aren't studs. (BTW, only 2 of the guys you mention are top 3 guys: Jrue and Jennings, with Samardo being #4, so your subjective assertion that these other guys were "the most hyped" seems off-base.)

Class of 2011
1. Anthony Davis
2. Austin
3. Michael Gilchrist

No overhyping here. AD and MG will be top 5 picks and Austin is a likely lottery pick, All-ACC and ACC ROY, who was just the 1st freshman to lead Duke in scoring since 1986. Sounds like hype was about right.

Class of 2010
1. Harrison
T-2. Kyrie
T-2. Sullinger

You can quibble if you want, and claim that HB is overhyped, which I would even grant, but I would point you to my first paragraph above about buying into media hype.

Bottomline: these guys are all flatout college studs that would start on ANY team in the country, PERIOD, and will all be lottery picks. Kyrie was the #1 overall pick. Harrison was the leading scorer 2 years in a row on an elite 8 team both years and is a likely top 5 pick in the draft, certainly a lock for the top 10. Sullinger was the leading scorer and rebounder on a final four team and All-AA his Freshman and Sophomore years (HB was honorable mention both years).

(Quibble if you must about how HB didn't bring a championship to Franklin St, and seemed to not want to play inside...and there's obviously lots of ragging we can do on the kid for being so concerned with his "brand"....Sullinger would have been a top 5 or 3 pick last year and hurt his stock in the tournament this year, but again he's the top scorer and rebounder on a final four team, and 2 time 1st team AA. I think these guys are bonafide college studs.)

Class of 2009
1. Derrick Favors
2. John Wall
3. Demarcus Cousins

No overhyping here, these guys went 1,3,5 in the 2010 draft with Wall and Cousins being 1st team AA and Favors being ACC ROY. Sound like college studs to me.

Class of 2008
1. Brandon Jennings
2. Jrue Holiday
3. Tyreke Evans

- BJ did not play in college so n/a.
- Jrue Holiday is the first non college stud on this list, and even he had a very solid year averaging 8.5 pts, 4rebs, and 3 asts in a crowded UCLA backcourt where he had to defer to seniors Darren Collison and Josh Shipp, while also playing off the ball.
- Tyreke Evans was a stud as the leading scorer on a Memphis team that won 33 games and was the #4 pick overall
- You mentioned Samardo Samuels who was #4 on the RSCI -- he averaged 12 & 5 his freshman year, very good numbers, in a crowded frontcourt that included Earl Clark and Terrence Williams (averaging a combined 26 & 18/game), then led the team as a sophomore in rebounding and scoring. He went undrafted as he's undersized and not terribly athletic, but he was pretty darn good college player.

Class of 2007
1. OJ Mayo
2. Kevin Love
3. Eric Gordon

No over hyping here. All 3 were top 10 picks in the 08 draft and all were major studs for their teams.

So that's 2 potential guys out of 16: Jrue Holiday and Samardo Samuels that weren't studs, with Samuels being a very good player. I'd say the top 3 produces some winners.


The top 3 does produce a lot of studs, with all but two being top picks in the draft. But as far as winner's only two out of the 16 won a national championship. I think why people want Amile to come is the thought that he would be a four year guy. One and done talent can surely help a team, but upperclassmen win titles. It usually takes more than one year for a team to mesh as one. With Amile possibly staying four years a junior or senior Amile might be a better player than a freshman Shabazz, we would just have to wait a couple years to see and there's always the chance he is great right out of the gate as well.

dukedoc
04-09-2012, 07:44 PM
Stephen Schramm ‏ @stephenschramm
Gottfried said Leslie family will likely make decision tonight or tomorrow.

If both Leslie and Mason come back, who does Amile choose?

G man
04-09-2012, 07:45 PM
Stephen Schramm ‏ @stephenschramm
Gottfried said Leslie family will likely make decision tonight or tomorrow.

If both Leslie and Mason come back, who does Amile choose?

Villanova???

Dukehky
04-09-2012, 07:59 PM
Kentucky, I think Cal's putting on the press.

ncexnyc
04-09-2012, 08:03 PM
Kentucky, I think Cal's putting on the press.

Exactly where and when does Jefferson play if he decides to go with UK? As I've said before they've already got Poythress and Cauley. If playing time is an issue with Amile then I really can't think UK would be his choice.

_Gary
04-09-2012, 08:17 PM
I think if you watched Shabazz play in the two recent televised games (hoops summit/McD) you would feel differently. This guy appears to be a game changing talent along the lines of a Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis or Derrick Rose. I think he has a good chance to be the NCAA player of the year next year and the first pick in the 2013 draft (at worst 2nd behind Noel). He would probably be the #2 pick this year.

With him, we're a top 5 team next year. Without him, regardless of whether Parker or Jefferson come, we're in the 12 - 18 range.

Completely agree. Shabazz is the only true game changer left. Heck, he's probably the biggest game changer coming out of high school this year. If we somehow nabbed him, we'd be Top 5 (easily). Without him, no matter who else does or doesn't come that's on the radar, we are somewhere between a Top 10 to Top 20 team (closer to 20 than 10 starting out the year).

Kedsy
04-09-2012, 08:26 PM
Shabazz is the only true game changer left.

From what I hear, Noel is also a game-changer.

Bob Green
04-09-2012, 08:34 PM
From what I hear, Noel is also a game-changer.

I agree. Nerlens Noel's offense may be raw, but he is an Anthony Davis level game-changer on the defensive end of the court.

_Gary
04-09-2012, 09:39 PM
From what I hear, Noel is also a game-changer.

Perhaps on the defensive end (per Bob's comments), but he's nowhere near as much the game-changer on the offensive end as Shabazz is. Admittedly, I was really only thinking of the guys Duke was in the mix for (should have clarified that better), but even so I think Shabazz is easily the biggest get left.

Dukehky
04-09-2012, 09:59 PM
While I agree that Noel is a game changer, he and Anthony Davis aren't exactly the same type player. Yes they are both freakishly long and athletic shot blockers on the defensive end, but the thing that makes Davis special, and the thing that is having NBA teams salivating is the fact that on top of Davis' defensive prowess is the fact that he just recently hit a growth spurt and is still developing his offense. He was a really really good guard and that handle hasn't left Davis and he's adjusting his shot to his new found height. Davis is going to be an interesting guy to follow at the next level. He's a Marcus Camby type defensive player/rebounder, but his offense isn't going to be centered in the low post because he doesn't have the build to put on a lot of weight and be a force on the block, he's going to have to be kind of a slashing big whose range continues to expand. He really intrigues me. I never fully understood why kids like Davis, Henson, and Ed Davis, are such hot commodities among NBA scouts. They don't have the frames to put on weight and dominate on the block offensively or defensively aside from blocking shots, and mostly from the weak side. But they know better than I.

Hey Amile, come to Duke
Hey Shabazz, didn't forget about you, come to Duke.

jimsumner
04-09-2012, 10:46 PM
Exactly where and when does Jefferson play if he decides to go with UK? As I've said before they've already got Poythress and Cauley. If playing time is an issue with Amile then I really can't think UK would be his choice.

Uk also has Kyle Wiltjer, who has to be anticipating a bump in PT.

NSDukeFan
04-10-2012, 09:16 AM
Exactly where and when does Jefferson play if he decides to go with UK? As I've said before they've already got Poythress and Cauley. If playing time is an issue with Amile then I really can't think UK would be his choice.

I would think his options for playing time might be greater at UK than at Duke. If UK's top 6 all leave as has been discussed, UK would return Kyle Wiltjer as their only player who has played more than 3 minutes per game. They currently have Goodwin (SG), Poythress (SF/PF), Cauley (C) committed, with offers out to Noel (C), Muhammad (SF), Bennett (PF), Parker (C), Pollard (SF), with Harrow (PG) joining them next year. If I am not missing anyone, Jefferson may be able to get plenty of minutes and would not have any upperclassmen to compete with.
At Duke, he would have Ryan Kelly ahead of him at his position, as well as Hairston, Marshall Plumlee, Mason Plumlee? (please, please, please), Murphy, Gbinijie, Dawkins? and at in my dreams Shabazz at the 3-5 spots. I would think if first year playing time is the criteria, UK may offer a better option. If there are other criteria, then by all means, choose Duke.

Jderf
04-10-2012, 09:33 AM
The top 3 does produce a lot of studs, with all but two being top picks in the draft. But as far as winner's only two out of the 16 won a national championship.

Just saying, there really aren't that many championships to go around. It might not be the best measure of individual influence.

superdave
04-10-2012, 02:13 PM
I guess we'll find out if Mason returning has any effect on Amile. Mason is a 5 and Amile a 4, so theoretically it should not matter. But looking at it from the perspective of 80 frontcourt minutes a game, it does matter. If we do not get Amile, that just means more minutes for Alex Murphy and Mike Gbinije and Josh Hairston, which is ok by me. But they had better step up on defense to get some PT.

Troublemaker
04-10-2012, 03:18 PM
Amile doesn't care about Mason. Besides not playing the same position, he's a long-term, academics-centric recruit who knows he has to spend his freshman year getting much stronger. Until he gets stronger, he's more of a 3/4 than a 4/3 anyway, so I wouldn't count him out of getting minutes at the 3.

FerryFor50
04-10-2012, 03:55 PM
Amile doesn't care about Mason. Besides not playing the same position, he's a long-term, academics-centric recruit who knows he has to spend his freshman year getting much stronger. Until he gets stronger, he's more of a 3/4 than a 4/3 anyway, so I wouldn't count him out of getting minutes at the 3.


Agreed. In fact, I can't see any of the recruits Duke is looking at as worrying about Mason coming back. If anything, Parker is waiting on Amile and Amile on Parker. I couldn't see them both coming to Duke.

CDu
04-10-2012, 03:57 PM
Agreed. In fact, I can't see any of the recruits Duke is looking at as worrying about Mason coming back. If anything, Parker is waiting on Amile and Amile on Parker. I couldn't see them both coming to Duke.

I think Parker is waiting on Muhammad actually. If Muhammad chooses UCLA, I think Parker will too. If Muhammad chooses somewhere else, then its unclear where Parker goes. I don't think Parker and Jefferson are deciding based on each other's choice.

FerryFor50
04-10-2012, 03:59 PM
I think Parker is waiting on Muhammad actually. If Muhammad chooses UCLA, I think Parker will too. If Muhammad chooses somewhere else, then its unclear where Parker goes. I don't think Parker and Jefferson are deciding based on each other's choice.

I'm not saying they're a package deal or anything. I think that they're seeing where the minutes are going to be. Parker delayed his decision well past Shabazz's, so I don't think they're really that linked.

dcar1985
04-10-2012, 04:03 PM
I think Parker is waiting on Muhammad actually. If Muhammad chooses UCLA, I think Parker will too. If Muhammad chooses somewhere else, then its unclear where Parker goes. I don't think Parker and Jefferson are deciding based on each other's choice.

I thought about that but it doesn't really make sense to me....You really think TPs going to go to UCLA strictly on the strength of Bazz going there but not know about it ahead of time? These kids are tight, if Bazz is headed to UCLA and Tony was going to follow suit I would think they'd have already discussed it and know each others plans...

superdave
04-10-2012, 04:05 PM
I think Parker is waiting on Muhammad actually. If Muhammad chooses UCLA, I think Parker will too. If Muhammad chooses somewhere else, then its unclear where Parker goes. I don't think Parker and Jefferson are deciding based on each other's choice.

I think this makes sense. Parker would likely join Muhammed and Kyle Anderson if Muhammed chooses to go that way. Or he'd follow Muhammed to Duke in the unlikely event that happens. Or if Nerlens Noel chooses someone other than Kentucky, Parker might jump at those minutes with or without Muhammed.

I think there's plenty of minutes for Parker at Duke, even with Mason returning. But I am not so sure he sees it that way.

NSDukeFan
04-10-2012, 04:51 PM
I think this makes sense. Parker would likely join Muhammed and Kyle Anderson if Muhammed chooses to go that way. Or he'd follow Muhammed to Duke in the unlikely event that happens. Or if Nerlens Noel chooses someone other than Kentucky, Parker might jump at those minutes with or without Muhammed.

I think there's plenty of minutes for Parker at Duke, even with Mason returning. But I am not so sure he sees it that way.

Honestly, I think it would be great if Parker came to Duke next year, but I don't know how many minutes he would get his first year. That is going to be one crowded team next year. With Mason, Marshall, Ryan, Josh all getting minutes at the 4 and 5 and maybe Alex and/or Gbinijie as well, I think it would be difficult for Parker (or Jefferson for that matter) to get 10 minutes per game. Someone very talented is likely to be out of the rotation next year as is, if the team adds anyone else, that would leave someone else with very few minutes. As always, I will be hoping for lots of blowouts so that everyone gets in and coach K fully using all his depth to run other teams out of the gym, but I will settle for an 8 man rotation and the typical 25-35 wins. Ho-hum. ;)

jennja01
04-10-2012, 05:04 PM
Honestly, I think it would be great if Parker came to Duke next year, but I don't know how many minutes he would get his first year. That is going to be one crowded team next year. With Mason, Marshall, Ryan, Josh all getting minutes at the 4 and 5 and maybe Alex and/or Gbinijie as well, I think it would be difficult for Parker (or Jefferson for that matter) to get 10 minutes per game. Someone very talented is likely to be out of the rotation next year as is, if the team adds anyone else, that would leave someone else with very few minutes. As always, I will be hoping for lots of blowouts so that everyone gets in and coach K fully using all his depth to run other teams out of the gym, but I will settle for an 8 man rotation and the typical 25-35 wins. Ho-hum. ;)

No disrespect to him as a person, but from what ive seen out of josh, im not sure he better than parker or jefferson. I know he's a hard worker and a team player etc., but that can only take you so far. He's not overly athletic, is pretty uncoordinated/confused on the court, and severly undersized for his position. I mean, there are teams out there with SG that are Josh's height. I like Josh and I think he's an asset to our team, but I dont really see him playing ahead of those 2 young freshman. While they are all around the same height, TP and AJ are both slightly taller and bring more to the table offensively IMO.

NSDukeFan
04-10-2012, 05:15 PM
No disrespect to him as a person, but from what ive seen out of josh, im not sure he better than parker or jefferson. I know he's a hard worker and a team player etc., but that can only take you so far. He's not overly athletic, is pretty uncoordinated/confused on the court, and severly undersized for his position. I mean, there are teams out there with SG that are Josh's height. I like Josh and I think he's an asset to our team, but I dont really see him playing ahead of those 2 young freshman. While they are all around the same height, TP and AJ are both slightly taller and bring more to the table offensively IMO.

You may be right in that freshmen Parker and Jefferson (ranked around 20th in RSCI) could possibly play more than junior Hairston (ranked #32 in RSCI in his class). I have certainly seen more of Josh at the college level compared to the freshmen, so I know that he can contribute at this level and haven't seen that from the freshmen yet. Even if that is true, and Jefferson and/or Parker were to play more than Hairston, would they be able to get more than approximately 10 minutes per game while competing with Mason, Ryan, Marshall, Josh, and possibly Alex and Gbinijie for minutes at the 4 and 5?

Troublemaker
04-10-2012, 05:25 PM
No disrespect to him as a person, but from what ive seen out of josh, im not sure he better than parker or jefferson. I know he's a hard worker and a team player etc., but that can only take you so far. He's not overly athletic, is pretty uncoordinated/confused on the court, and severly undersized for his position. I mean, there are teams out there with SG that are Josh's height. I like Josh and I think he's an asset to our team, but I dont really see him playing ahead of those 2 young freshman. While they are all around the same height, TP and AJ are both slightly taller and bring more to the table offensively IMO.

I think Josh is the rare player who is better off being a bit skinny and has been hurt by weight gain since his senior year in high school. (It doesn't happen often, but it happens.) He looked bouncy and more smooth when he was at Courtland HS (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxdIsQ32aJA ) before he transferred to Montrose and got into a real weight-training program. I think if he shaves about 10 pounds, his game would improve as his quickness becomes a factor. You kinda want to be quicker or bigger than your man, and Josh is sort of in a weird place right now where he's neither. He's swallowed up by high-major size but unable to use quickness against them; the added strength has only served to make him more stubby. Just my two cents. Could be wrong.

arnie
04-10-2012, 05:59 PM
Agreed. In fact, I can't see any of the recruits Duke is looking at as worrying about Mason coming back. If anything, Parker is waiting on Amile and Amile on Parker. I couldn't see them both coming to Duke.

I don't agree; since Mason's return reduces available minutes at the 4 and 3. Kelly should not be playing sig minutes at center and that means Murphy will likely very few minutes at power forward. It all trickles down.

I think its great Mason returns and really takes pressure off adding another recruit. Of course next year, we must land some big bodies.

Greg_Newton
04-10-2012, 06:16 PM
I think Josh is the rare player who is better off being a bit skinny and has been hurt by weight gain since his senior year in high school. (It doesn't happen often, but it happens.) He looked bouncy and more smooth when he was at Courtland HS (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxdIsQ32aJA ) before he transferred to Montrose and got into a real weight-training program. I think if he shaves about 10 pounds, his game would improve as his quickness becomes a factor. You kinda want to be quicker or bigger than your man, and Josh is sort of in a weird place right now where he's neither. He's swallowed up by high-major size but unable to use quickness against them; the added strength has only served to make him more stubby. Just my two cents. Could be wrong.

Completely agree. I remember Josh seeming more like a SF, even at Montrose, and would regularly make confident moves on the perimeter and throw down alley-oops and such. I was sort of hoping we'd develop him in that mold, but we tried to make him a banger instead.

I could be wrong, but I think he acknowledged at some point this season that he gained a little too much weight. Hopefully he focused on explosiveness and toning up this offseason; he needs to be more in the Deshaun Thomas mold than the Jeff Adrien mold, IMO. He just doesn't have the length or hops necessary to offset being 6'7 as it is.

Saratoga2
04-11-2012, 09:38 AM
I don't agree; since Mason's return reduces available minutes at the 4 and 3. Kelly should not be playing sig minutes at center and that means Murphy will likely very few minutes at power forward. It all trickles down.

I think its great Mason returns and really takes pressure off adding another recruit. Of course next year, we must land some big bodies.

It makes more sense for Duke to land a big body for next season. It usually takes a season or two for big guys to be able to make a significant contribution. If we wait to add one until after Mason and Ryan have both left the program we will start off pretty green, with only Marshall and perhaps Alex as our inside players. We know that big buys seldom play much over 25 minutes a game, so there will be quite a few minutes at both the 4 and 5 position to fill next season, with Josh and Alex probables to eat some of the PT at the 4, but only Marshall to take the 5. Tony Parker would be able to fill the 5 for short periods while he improves his physical conditioning.

ChicagoCrazy84
04-11-2012, 09:50 AM
Completely agree. I remember Josh seeming more like a SF, even at Montrose, and would regularly make confident moves on the perimeter and throw down alley-oops and such. I was sort of hoping we'd develop him in that mold, but we tried to make him a banger instead.

I could be wrong, but I think he acknowledged at some point this season that he gained a little too much weight. Hopefully he focused on explosiveness and toning up this offseason; he needs to be more in the Deshaun Thomas mold than the Jeff Adrien mold, IMO. He just doesn't have the length or hops necessary to offset being 6'7 as it is.


I remember telling my Dad during a game this year that Josh Hairston looks a little too bulky to me and I didn't like it. He said we needed it, to have more muscle inside to help Kelly and the Plumlee's. I disagreed and am glad to know I wasn't the only onee that thought this. I agree if he sheds 10 lbs and gets more comfortable, he should be a starter his senior year. I absolutely think we'll see a leaner Josh next year.

El_Diablo
04-11-2012, 10:38 AM
I could be wrong, but I think he acknowledged at some point this season that he gained a little too much weight. Hopefully he focused on explosiveness and toning up this offseason; he needs to be more in the Deshaun Thomas mold than the Jeff Adrien mold, IMO. He just doesn't have the length or hops necessary to offset being 6'7 as it is.

Yes, I heard Josh in a radio interview around December or January say that he had tried to put on a lot of weight last offseason. He said he had gotten a lot stronger, but he acknowledged that some of it was not good weight. So if he continues working hard on his conditioning this summer, I think we can predict a stronger but slightly trimmer Josh next year.

I think Josh, Ryan, and Mason have all made excellent strides in developing strength since arriving as freshmen, and Amile would benefit greatly from whatever weight training regimen they've been using at Duke.

CDu
04-11-2012, 10:46 AM
Completely agree. I remember Josh seeming more like a SF, even at Montrose, and would regularly make confident moves on the perimeter and throw down alley-oops and such. I was sort of hoping we'd develop him in that mold, but we tried to make him a banger instead.

I could be wrong, but I think he acknowledged at some point this season that he gained a little too much weight. Hopefully he focused on explosiveness and toning up this offseason; he needs to be more in the Deshaun Thomas mold than the Jeff Adrien mold, IMO. He just doesn't have the length or hops necessary to offset being 6'7 as it is.

I don't think getting stronger is necessarily a bad thing. It's how you go about getting stronger. If you bulk up without consideration of maintaining explosiveness (which appears to be the mistake Hairston made) it's bad. But it is certainly possible to get bigger/stronger AND maintain explosiveness.

I'd expect Hairston to work on his explosiveness and conditioning this offseason while maintaining his strength work.

COYS
04-11-2012, 10:52 AM
I don't think getting stronger is necessarily a bad thing. It's how you go about getting stronger. If you bulk up without consideration of maintaining explosiveness (which appears to be the mistake Hairston made) it's bad. But it is certainly possible to get bigger/stronger AND maintain explosiveness.

I'd expect Hairston to work on his explosiveness and conditioning this offseason while maintaining his strength work.

This is a good point, as weight and strength are not directly correlated. For basketball players, putting on too much upper body bulk without adequately increasing lower body strength can make one stronger in terms of bench pressing but slower and less explosive over all (leaping, lateral quickness). It is possible to have more effective strength (lower body strength and a better muscle to fat ratio) while actually losing weight over all. Obviously, every individual is a unique case and finding the best balance between mobility, strength, and weight is not a one size fits all process. Hairston is still growing, anyway, as he's just a 19-20 year old kid. I have no doubt that he'll find the right balance.

geraldsneighbor
04-11-2012, 04:17 PM
This is a good point, as weight and strength are not directly correlated. For basketball players, putting on too much upper body bulk without adequately increasing lower body strength can make one stronger in terms of bench pressing but slower and less explosive over all (leaping, lateral quickness). It is possible to have more effective strength (lower body strength and a better muscle to fat ratio) while actually losing weight over all. Obviously, every individual is a unique case and finding the best balance between mobility, strength, and weight is not a one size fits all process. Hairston is still growing, anyway, as he's just a 19-20 year old kid. I have no doubt that he'll find the right balance.

Just saw on twitter, DeShawn Painter will NOT return to NCSU due to illness in the family. Tough break for Painter the Wolfpack no question, but even though Painter is a center you have to think this opens more minutes up should Jefferson be interested.

superdave
04-11-2012, 04:35 PM
Just saw on twitter, DeShawn Painter will NOT return to NCSU due to illness in the family. Tough break for Painter the Wolfpack no question, but even though Painter is a center you have to think this opens more minutes up should Jefferson be interested.

Painter is from Norfolk. (http://www.gopack.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/ncst-m-baskbl-mtt.html)

This could help State with Amile a lot. It could also kill State's season if Calvin goes pro. All that hope in Raleighwood will come crashing down.

CDu
04-11-2012, 04:46 PM
Just saw on twitter, DeShawn Painter will NOT return to NCSU due to illness in the family. Tough break for Painter the Wolfpack no question, but even though Painter is a center you have to think this opens more minutes up should Jefferson be interested.

It certainly opens up more minutes at the backup PF at State. Painter was the third big last year and as such played plenty of time at both PF and C. Next year, they'll add Vandenburg back to the rotation. I would have expected like 15-20mpg for Painter, 5-10mpg for Vandenburg, and 5-10mpg for Harris, with Howell and Leslie getting the rest of the minutes (anywhere from 45 to 55 depending on foul trouble). Without Painter, I'd expect Vandenburg's minutes to equal basically equal 40 - Howell's minutes. That leaves 10-15 mpg (maybe more, if Vandenburg isn't up to the challenge and De Thaey can't fill that role as the third C) at the PF. Those minutes would presumably be picked up by either Harris, De Thaey, or Jefferson (if he goes there).

Basically, Painter's departure sort of frees up time, but not enough to be a deal maker in my opinion. Leslie is the key to big minutes at State. If he stays, there won't be more than 10-15 minutes (at the most) available to Jefferson next year. If Leslie goes, Jefferson will compete with Harris for the starting spot.

It definitely hurts State as a team, though. Painter was the only guy suited to play both PF and C for them. So he provided a very useful player off the bench. They were going to potentially have a very deep and versatile frontcourt with Painter, Vandenburg, and Harris coming off the bench and De Thaey available in an absolute crisis. Now, it puts a lot more importance on Leslie returning and Harris/Vandenburg/De Thaey being useful backups.

BlueDevilBrowns
04-11-2012, 05:59 PM
BlueDevilNation: "Every single move made changes the big picture in which recruit will go where. Kentucky making a huge late push for Jefferson."
Posted 5:52pm

Not sure what this means, yet, but I have a feeling we'll know in about 3 hours.

Duvall
04-11-2012, 06:10 PM
BlueDevilNation: "Every single move made changes the big picture in which recruit will go where. Kentucky making a huge late push for Jefferson."
Posted 5:52pm

Not sure what this means, yet, but I have a feeling we'll know in about 3 hours.

May mean Muhammad to UCLA and Noel to Georgetown, as widely speculated.

mr. synellinden
04-11-2012, 06:12 PM
May mean Muhammad to UCLA and Noel to Georgetown, as widely speculated.

Or Muhammad to Duke and Noel to Georgetown.

90 minutes away.

Pathetic that there is such anticipation for this, but I guess that's part of being a sports fan.

SoCalDukeFan
04-11-2012, 06:21 PM
Or Muhammad to Duke and Noel to Georgetown.

90 minutes away.

Pathetic that there is such anticipation for this, but I guess that's part of being a sports fan.

Extremely pathetic that so many care so much about where an 18 or 19 year old is going to play basketball for one year.

SoCal

SupaDave
04-11-2012, 06:24 PM
May mean Muhammad to UCLA and Noel to Georgetown, as widely speculated.

Hilarious! My friends tell me that it's widely speculated that both go to UK.

SupaDave
04-11-2012, 06:26 PM
Extremely pathetic that so many care so much about where an 18 or 19 year old is going to play basketball for one year.

SoCal

Ya think so? Millions of Americans do it every year. There are people that get paid BIG MONEY to sit in the stands and WATCH 18 and 19 year olds.

Oh we care. This is big money baby...

roywhite
04-11-2012, 06:29 PM
Extremely pathetic that so many care so much about where an 18 or 19 year old is going to play basketball for one year.

SoCal

Yet you're here on this thread?

slower
04-11-2012, 06:48 PM
Hilarious! My friends tell me that it's widely speculated that both go to UK.

That's my speculation, as well.

Johnny Chill
04-11-2012, 07:58 PM
How important is Jefferson to Duke now?

I think it is pretty important Duke gets a 4, that can develop and start contributing in 2 years, and be a glue guy.

Alex18
04-11-2012, 08:00 PM
If Kentucky doesn't get Noel it sounds like cal is going full bore after this kid, how high was this kid on Kentucky in the first place?

Edouble
04-11-2012, 08:03 PM
Extremely pathetic that so many care so much about where an 18 or 19 year old is going to play basketball for one year.

SoCal

No, it's called having fun and rooting for/being a part of something bigger than yourself. What you said sounds like something that someone who doesn't understand what this is all about would say.

I really love basketball. 18/19 year olds just happen to be at the age where they are in their peak physical form to play this game. Many will never be able to run and jump quite as well a couple of years down the road after a few seasons of wear and tear in the NBA. They are also at an age where they are not yet millionaires and still "susceptible" to a little coaching.

It's a much better form of escapism, for me anyway, than watching a bunch of people getting shot/murdered/whatever passes for TV and movies these days. Or hanging out a bar to smoke cigarettes, drink too much, and speak lewdly about women.

I know this is a tad preachy, but you did just call a bunch of people's fun activity "extremely pathetic". I am glad that I have this. :)

MCFinARL
04-11-2012, 08:50 PM
So, Noel to Kentucky. Does this change Kentucky's new push for Jefferson, or does it not make that much difference?

YmoBeThere
04-11-2012, 09:13 PM
18/19 year olds just happen to be at the age where they are in their peak physical form to play this game. Many will never be able to run and jump quite as well a couple of years down the road after a few seasons of wear and tear in the NBA.

I'm not sure I agree that 18/19 is peak physical form. There are a few 18/19 with the needed muscle mass and while this varies for many players, I don't think saying 18/19 is accurate for most.

BlueDevilBrowns
04-11-2012, 09:17 PM
So, Noel to Kentucky. Does this change Kentucky's new push for Jefferson, or does it not make that much difference?

My Two Cents:

I think Jefferson waits on CJ Leslie and perhaps TP to make up their mind, then he announces shortly after.

I don't see him going to UK now as playing time won't be quite so abundant with Noel and Poythress in the lineup.

Then it comes down to Duke vs. State and if Leslie leaves, he's going to State and if Leslie comes back, he goes to Duke unless TP unexpectedly announces for Duke, then who knows?... Maybe Villanova?

Duvall
04-11-2012, 09:21 PM
So, Noel to Kentucky. Does this change Kentucky's new push for Jefferson, or does it not make that much difference?

Can't see how. Even with Noel, Kentucky needs bodies, period. If everyone leaves (which is expected) they're down to about six high-major players.

Greg_Newton
04-11-2012, 09:21 PM
How important is Jefferson to Duke now?

I think it is pretty important Duke gets a 4, that can develop and start contributing in 2 years, and be a glue guy.

Agreed that it would be big for down the road, especially because he'll eventually be a back-to-the-basket scorer wherever he goes, which is rare.

However, like the rest of these decisions, it won't be make-or-break by any means. If he doesn't come, we'll still have our 4-man rotation this year, a great pitch for Julius Randle next year (or possibly slide Jabari Parker down to play alongside Murphy/Sulaimon/etc), and who knows what will happen in 2014; the staff has a good relationship with Jahlil Okafor, who could potentially play alongside R-JR MP3 to give us a heckuva frontcourt.

Greg_Newton
04-11-2012, 09:25 PM
Can't see how. Even with Noel, Kentucky needs bodies, period. If everyone leaves (which is expected) they're down to about six high-major players.

True, but they really need guards. Right now, their legit players are really

Harrow
Goodwin
Poythress
Wiltjer
Noel

PF/C - Cauley

...with Poythress also able to spend some time at the 4 if Jon Hood comes in at wing, or something. I actually think PF is their deepest position, as it is.

Edouble
04-12-2012, 02:54 AM
I'm not sure I agree that 18/19 is peak physical form. There are a few 18/19 with the needed muscle mass and while this varies for many players, I don't think saying 18/19 is accurate for most.

Muscle mass to run and jump? I'm talking about stuff like Grant Hill's famous dunk as a freshman in the 1991 National Championship game, Corey Maggette at Duke, etc. etc.

dukedoc
04-12-2012, 08:17 AM
Well, I won't believe it until it actually happens, so FWIW

@mikemaniscalco Great stuff from @EvanDanielscout from http://scout.com just told us Amile Jefferson could commit as soon as today.


Well, a lot has changed in the last couple of days. Mason is back. NC State is having some transfers out. KY got Noel. Nothing has changed as far as I'm aware with Nova and Temple.

I haven't heard that Calvin has decided, has he? Perhaps Amile will make his decision without knowledge of Calvin's intentions?

Again, this may be another pump fake. But hopefully he'll bring it to a close soon.

nolan8or
04-12-2012, 10:47 AM
Well, I won't believe it until it actually happens, so FWIW

@mikemaniscalco Great stuff from @EvanDanielscout from http://scout.com just told us Amile Jefferson could commit as soon as today.


Well, a lot has changed in the last couple of days. Mason is back. NC State is having some transfers out. KY got Noel. Nothing has changed as far as I'm aware with Nova and Temple.

I haven't heard that Calvin has decided, has he? Perhaps Amile will make his decision without knowledge of Calvin's intentions?

Again, this may be another pump fake. But hopefully he'll bring it to a close soon.

He also said it would be more likely he'll announce next week.

Kedsy
04-12-2012, 10:47 AM
Muscle mass to run and jump? I'm talking about stuff like Grant Hill's famous dunk as a freshman in the 1991 National Championship game, Corey Maggette at Duke, etc. etc.

Look at a typical freshman player in college. Then look at a 26 to 28 year old NBA player. Then tell me what age is the peak physical condition for playing basketball. It's not close.

1 24 90
04-12-2012, 11:14 AM
Look at a typical freshman player in college. Then look at a 26 to 28 year old NBA player. Then tell me what age is the peak physical condition for playing basketball. It's not close.

i.e. JJ Redick

sagegrouse
04-12-2012, 11:15 AM
No, it's called having fun and rooting for/being a part of something bigger than yourself. What you said sounds like something that someone who doesn't understand what this is all about would say.

I really love basketball. 18/19 year olds just happen to be at the age where they are in their peak physical form to play this game. Many will never be able to run and jump quite as well a couple of years down the road after a few seasons of wear and tear in the NBA. They are also at an age where they are not yet millionaires and still "susceptible" to a little coaching.

It's a much better form of escapism, for me anyway, than watching a bunch of people getting shot/murdered/whatever passes for TV and movies these days. Or hanging out a bar to smoke cigarettes, drink too much, and speak lewdly about women.

I know this is a tad preachy, but you did just call a bunch of people's fun activity "extremely pathetic". I am glad that I have this. :)


I'm not sure I agree that 18/19 is peak physical form. There are a few 18/19 with the needed muscle mass and while this varies for many players, I don't think saying 18/19 is accurate for most.


Muscle mass to run and jump? I'm talking about stuff like Grant Hill's famous dunk as a freshman in the 1991 National Championship game, Corey Maggette at Duke, etc. etc.


Look at a typical freshman player in college. Then look at a 26 to 28 year old NBA player. Then tell me what age is the peak physical condition for playing basketball. It's not close.

Kedsy is right. Not only do people get stronger and stronger through their twenties, but athletes develop their coordination at different rates, and many don't get fully coordinated until their twenties, especially the long, tall characters that have to get control of their limbs. Yeah, Grant Hill and all that -- but these are the top one percent of the top one percent of all athletes.

As a non-athlete, I could not touch the basketball rim until I was 26 or so but could still do it ten years later. And, believe me, I was no Spud Webb.

sagegrouse
'These days, when the coyotes come around, I can still move quickly'

flyingdutchdevil
04-12-2012, 11:53 AM
Look at a typical freshman player in college. Then look at a 26 to 28 year old NBA player. Then tell me what age is the peak physical condition for playing basketball. It's not close.

I beg to differ. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is an better physical condition than LeBron :p

dw0827
04-12-2012, 12:05 PM
I beg to differ. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is an better physical condition than LeBron :p

Are you perhaps missing the point? For me, the question is: MKG now or MKG when he's 26 - 28.

Indoor66
04-12-2012, 12:23 PM
I beg to differ. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is an better physical condition than LeBron :p

I would seriously question that assertion. Kidd-Gilchrist would be killed by LeBron in a game and I am not a LeBron fan. It is just a man against a boy - granted a well developed boy, but a boy.

moonpie23
04-12-2012, 01:09 PM
I beg to differ. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is an better physical condition than LeBron :p

you've got to be kidding........

Bojangles4Eva
04-12-2012, 02:26 PM
That majority of olympic medalists in basketball-related skillsets (100m, 200m, 110 hurdles, long jump, high jump, tripple jump) are generally between 22 - 30 years old. I would def take the atheletic ability of a healthy player in their late 20's
over someone who is 18/19.

Gewebe14
04-12-2012, 03:54 PM
That majority of olympic medalists in basketball-related skillsets (100m, 200m, 110 hurdles, long jump, high jump, tripple jump) are generally between 22 - 30 years old. I would def take the atheletic ability of a healthy player in their late 20's
over someone who is 18/19.

You're forgetting the most important basketball skill-related Olympic sport: basketball. Dominated by the mid to late 20s (and even 30s!) players

oldnavy
04-12-2012, 04:24 PM
You're forgetting the most important basketball skill-related Olympic sport: basketball. Dominated by the mid to late 20s (and even 30s!) players

Excellent point!

dukedoc
04-12-2012, 08:15 PM
What do folks think will happen if Calvin decides to come back? Does that definitively push Amile to us? Assuming the KY six all leave, I know there will be a lot of room in Lexington, but I have to think Amile's sincere stress on academics might preclude his going to KY. Cal is slick, though, so who knows. Perhaps Nova re-emerges?

Chad Lykins ‏ @CLykinsBlog
Seems as if chances are pretty high that CJ Leslie will return to State for his junior season. Absolutely Huge.

Duvall
04-12-2012, 08:19 PM
What do folks think will happen if Calvin decides to come back? Does that definitively push Amile to us? Assuming the KY six all leave, I know there will be a lot of room in Lexington, but I have to think Amile's sincere stress on academics might preclude his going to KY. Cal is slick, though, so who knows. Perhaps Nova re-emerges?

Chad Lykins ‏ @CLykinsBlog
Seems as if chances are pretty high that CJ Leslie will return to State for his junior season. Absolutely Huge.

It's very odd that a player like Jefferson would make his decision solely based on the minutes available in his first year of college. Both NC State and Duke will offer minutes next season, and a starting opportunity after that.

dukedoc
04-12-2012, 08:30 PM
It's very odd that a player like Jefferson would make his decision solely based on the minutes available in his first year of college. Both NC State and Duke will offer minutes next season, and a starting opportunity after that.

It was reported that he said last week that the decisions of Mason, CJ, and the KY crew would weight heavily in his decision. I agree that he is not a one-and-done type and therefore should be looking far beyond his first year when imagining his overall tenure at a school, but why then would those decisions be of that much import?

JNort
04-12-2012, 08:33 PM
you've got to be kidding........

I believe that is why he used the smiley with the tongue out....

Duvall
04-12-2012, 08:39 PM
It was reported that he said last week that the decisions of Mason, CJ, and the KY crew would weight heavily in his decision. I agree that he is not a one-and-done type and therefore should be looking far beyond his first year when imagining his overall tenure at a school, but why then would those decisions be of that much import?

I'm sure he said it. I just don't understand why that would make any sense.

dukedoc
04-12-2012, 08:45 PM
I'm sure he said it. I just don't understand why that would make any sense.

It will all become (at least somewhat) clear(er) soon enough (we hope).

flyingdutchdevil
04-12-2012, 08:54 PM
you've got to be kidding........


Are you perhaps missing the point? For me, the question is: MKG now or MKG when he's 26 - 28.


I would seriously question that assertion. Kidd-Gilchrist would be killed by LeBron in a game and I am not a LeBron fan. It is just a man against a boy - granted a well developed boy, but a boy.

Wow - I am seriously beginning to doubt the inability of posters to gauge sarcasm. Thought the smiley with his tongue out said it all. I completely agree that an 18 year old cannot be the physical specimen of a mature 26-28 year old. Agreeing with the majority of you, people.

FerryFor50
04-12-2012, 09:40 PM
Wow - I am seriously beginning to doubt the inability of posters to gauge sarcasm. Thought the smiley with his tongue out said it all. I completely agree that an 18 year old cannot be the physical specimen of a mature 26-28 year old. Agreeing with the majority of you, people.

I got it but didn't want to waste the energy correcting everyone. It was much funnier to see people overreact. :)

JNort
04-12-2012, 10:38 PM
I got it but didn't want to waste the energy correcting everyone. It was much funnier to see people overreact. :)

It wasn't hard to grasp at all. I actually tried helping with my post... smh I doubt it actually helped

dw0827
04-13-2012, 03:08 PM
Wow - I am seriously beginning to doubt the inability of posters to gauge sarcasm. Thought the smiley with his tongue out said it all. I completely agree that an 18 year old cannot be the physical specimen of a mature 26-28 year old. Agreeing with the majority of you, people.

Ahhhh, ok. I'm old and I don't relate to the little cartoonish things . . . . emoticons? . . . so I pay no attention to them.

Otherwise, written sarcasm doesn't always translate well. I just assumed you were an idiot. Sorry. Allow me to assume the mantle awhile.

Gthoma2a
04-14-2012, 02:22 AM
I have to say that I haven't seen a whole lot on Amile, but he seems to be a pretty adept offensive player, but his defense looks to be more developed than you would think. A friend of mine who is a State alum was talking about him with me and stated that the State people have described him as a "glue stick".

I think he could possibly get the nod for combo forward minutes. From the limited amount I have seen/heard, he is pretty athletic, has fast feet, is very disruptive and could make our defense translate into offense because of these things. I like his chances to get playing time because defense against driving players has been a weak point and he may be able to stop that a little better than our other interior players. If he can do defensive work even remotely close to Lance, I would say he should get the majority of the minutes at the 4.

I know Ryan is a very good player, but he is an odd case of big enough to almost have to put him inside on defense, but his skills/preferences seem to leave him outside a lot. He is so skilled in guard-like play, but he is not athletic enough do it (play on the outside) on defense or physical enough to intimidate skilled bigger players inside. Our identity next year will likely not include overpowering people with offense, but being disruptive, causing turnovers and running could make up for any deficiencies that we have on offense. For that, this would be a great pickup and a very fun team to watch (We would have a lot of guys who are athletic enough to cover ground quickly and can cause chaos for offenses trying to move the ball around or penetrate).

Devilsfan
04-14-2012, 04:06 AM
He sounds like what Ryan would be if he were more athletic (quicker, more ups, ability to slash and get by your man, etc). Probably not the screener, passer, or shooter Ryan is at this point, but we probably don't need him to be with the rest of our cast and Jones on the horizon. Ryan's passing is important because we dont have a stellar point guard. Hard to believe a Coach K, Wojo Duke squad without one of the best point guards in the ACC.

ChicagoCrazy84
04-15-2012, 12:45 PM
He sounds like what Ryan would be if he were more athletic (quicker, more ups, ability to slash and get by your man, etc). Probably not the screener, passer, or shooter Ryan is at this point, but we probably don't need him to be with the rest of our cast and Jones on the horizon. Ryan's passing is important because we dont have a stellar point guard. Hard to believe a Coach K, Wojo Duke squad without one of the best point guards in the ACC.


That's not fair to Tyler or Quinn. We had one of the best when we had Kyrie and Nolan. Tyler was not one of the most coveted PG's out of high school, but give him some time. Quinn was a top 10 PG in the country and highly coveted, but he was a freshman who has dealt with some lingering knee issues. I would not be surprised at all to see both of these guys take big steps forward next year.

flyingdutchdevil
04-15-2012, 01:31 PM
That's not fair to Tyler or Quinn. We had one of the best when we had Kyrie and Nolan. Tyler was not one of the most coveted PG's out of high school, but give him some time. Quinn was a top 10 PG in the country and highly coveted, but he was a freshman who has dealt with some lingering knee issues. I would not be surprised at all to see both of these guys take big steps forward next year.

We will have a stellar PG next year, and his name will be Quinn Cook. I firmly believe that he will take the reigns from Day 1 next year and dominate. He didn't this year because a) his knee wasn't 100%, b) his D needs some serious work, and c) the PG position at Duke is by far the most demanding and difficult to understand. Kyrie is by far the exception, not the rule.

I like Tyler, but Quinn is our game changer. If he can work on his D and work with the coaching staff some more, he'll be insanely dangerous.

Kedsy
04-15-2012, 02:38 PM
I have to say that I haven't seen a whole lot on Amile, but he seems to be a pretty adept offensive player, but his defense looks to be more developed than you would think. A friend of mine who is a State alum was talking about him with me and stated that the State people have described him as a "glue stick".

I think he could possibly get the nod for combo forward minutes. From the limited amount I have seen/heard, he is pretty athletic, has fast feet, is very disruptive and could make our defense translate into offense because of these things. I like his chances to get playing time because defense against driving players has been a weak point and he may be able to stop that a little better than our other interior players. If he can do defensive work even remotely close to Lance, I would say he should get the majority of the minutes at the 4.

You start by saying you haven't seen the guy play very much, and by the end of the next paragraph he's starting over senior Ryan Kelly? Wow.

I hope Amile comes to Duke but with the roster we have returning, I would be surprised if he plays more than 5 or 6 mpg as a freshman.

dyedwab
04-15-2012, 02:49 PM
I really hope Amile comes to Duke. I think he's the kind of player who thrives over time in the Duke program, contributes a lot to team and has a lot of success afterwards.

That said, we have a lot of data here about whether he will get a lot of minutes as a freshman. As someone, and I can't remember the thread or who did it, pointed out in a well researched posts, consensus Top-5 recruits tend to play a lot as freshman, no matter the roster composition, while recruits below that only tend to play a lot of minutes if the roster has some weird construction - like having virtually no seniors.

It seems to be that expectations that, should Amile come here, that he will get lots and lots of minutes in the front court fly in the face fo what is likely based on the evidence available to us of how Coach K uses his roster.

Gthoma2a
04-15-2012, 03:20 PM
You start by saying you haven't seen the guy play very much, and by the end of the next paragraph he's starting over senior Ryan Kelly? Wow.

I hope Amile comes to Duke but with the roster we have returning, I would be surprised if he plays more than 5 or 6 mpg as a freshman.

There is a reason. What I have seen of Amile shows him to be able to run the floor and defend. I also go by what people who have seen a lot of him have said. Those people refer to him as a "glue stick."

I just don't see a coherent strategy with Kelly out there on defense against good teams. Kelly is not a bad player by any means, but his skills make him difficult to fit into a strategy on the team right now. We don't have a Battier to hound guys. We don't have a Brand or a Boozer to dominate around the rim and cover up when he isn't as physical. We don't have a Kyle to be tougher than anybody else on the floor. Without these things, Ryan can mainly get in the way on defense. I say that because he is a long body, but he isn't going to keep guys away from the basket with his body. He isn't going to block shots from guys using an up and under when they move him. He isn't fast enough to run the floor if he gets a tip. These things matter.

I think that with athletic guys who can defend, we can avoid the half court and mask the recent weaknesses of our team, slashing and creating. If we have guys like Rasheed hounding guys on the perimeter, Amile hounding a SF or PF, Alex or MG using their athleticism to defend and break for the outlet pass, on top of Mason, we have a team that doesn't have to rely purely on the half court. The strategy would be to turn them over and run like hell at the basket. It is a foot speed issue IMO.

JNort
04-15-2012, 03:25 PM
There is a reason. What I have seen of Amile shows him to be able to run the floor and defend. I also go by what people who have seen a lot of him have said. Those people refer to him as a "glue stick."

I just don't see a coherent strategy with Kelly out there on defense against good teams. Kelly is not a bad player by any means, but his skills make him difficult to fit into a strategy on the team right now. We don't have a Battier to hound guys. We don't have a Brand or a Boozer to dominate around the rim and cover up when he isn't as physical. We don't have a Kyle to be tougher than anybody else on the floor. Without these things, Ryan can mainly get in the way on defense. I say that because he is a long body, but he isn't going to keep guys away from the basket with his body. He isn't going to block shots from guys using an up and under when they move him. He isn't fast enough to run the floor if he gets a tip. These things matter.

I think that with athletic guys who can defend, we can avoid the half court and mask the recent weaknesses of our team, slashing and creating. If we have guys like Rasheed hounding guys on the perimeter, Amile hounding a SF or PF, Alex or MG using their athleticism to defend and break for the outlet pass, on top of Mason, we have a team that doesn't have to rely purely on the half court. The strategy would be to turn them over and run like hell at the basket. It is a foot speed issue IMO.

I smell a troll, I believe there is a reason you got that little flame. Seriously man... what you just posted does not make sense. I am usually fine with anybody on here who can post a reasonable argument for why they say what they say but this is just sooo wrong it was painful to read.


- Rant over

Jim3k
04-15-2012, 03:26 PM
I really hope Amile comes to Duke. I think he's the kind of player who thrives over time in the Duke program, contributes a lot to team and has a lot of success afterwards.

That said, we have a lot of data here about whether he will get a lot of minutes as a freshman. As someone, and I can't remember the thread or who did it, pointed out in a well researched posts, consensus Top-5 recruits tend to play a lot as freshman, no matter the roster composition, while recruits below that only tend to play a lot of minutes if the roster has some weird construction - like having virtually no seniors.

It seems to be that expectations that, should Amile come here, that he will get lots and lots of minutes in the front court fly in the face fo what is likely based on the evidence available to us of how Coach K uses his roster.

I'd suggest easing off on how many minutes would be available at the PF slot for an incoming freshman, no matter how bighly ranked. First, check how long it took Brand to break through. Second, consider that Kelly has a lock on the job and that Murphy has a year in the system and is rated about the same in skillset. Then look at the fact that Hairston has size and a motor that will put him on the floor as a big. Finally, look at the the overlapping SFs that could come onto the floor as a quick team--Gbinije and Dawkins or the three guard offense of Curry, Cook, and Thornton. Moreover, it's entirely possible that Marshall will be in at center, meaning Mason goes to the PF (which is his stated roster position).

At this point it is just silly to concern ourselves with PT for an unsigned player, much less impliedly promise him minutes when there are known quantities against whom he will need to compete.

Let this play out in reality

Gthoma2a
04-15-2012, 03:47 PM
I smell a troll, I believe there is a reason you got that little flame. Seriously man... what you just posted does not make sense. I am usually fine with anybody on here who can post a reasonable argument for why they say what they say but this is just sooo wrong it was painful to read.


- Rant over

I am not a troll. We just lost our one guy we relied on to create for himself. I think we can all agree, right? We are getting Rasheed who is very good, but is not the jab step crossover artist that Austin was, right (it is rare that anybody can create as well as Austin)? We didn't really run that much this year, right? Our defense was not too difficult for athletic teams to penetrate against, right? That was a problem based off of lateral movement. Do you think a guy who has fast feet on the inside could recover and stop the ball when a guy is penetrating (think Lance Thomas)? Look at our loss against Lehigh, we weren't even stopping the ball towards the end. They took the inbounds pass right to the basket. These things seem to point to wanting to avoid the half court where we will rely largely on the 3 point shot and try to play athletic on ball defense and run. I think Amile would let us do that better than Ryan.

To sum up. We won't be a team that can slash a lot. Instead of relying purely on the 3, I think it would be smart to try to use defensive intensity and athleticism to run for easy points in transition to add to the shots we hit in the half court. Mason can run the floor. Amile would be able to run the floor. Rasheed would be able to run the floor. Tyler and Quinn can defend and throw the outlet/run the floor. Alex and Gbinije can run the floor. Perhaps I am responding heavily to what the critique of most analysts was last year, but I would like to get several athletes. Even if it doesn't translate in the half court offense (Lance Thomas and McClure), it would add easier points (transition) and keep opponents points off the board for wins. When we are forced to use the half court, we have shooters that will have ups and downs and we can dump the ball to mason in the post (he is reliable when opponents are kept honest by the shooters).

JNort
04-15-2012, 03:58 PM
There is a reason. What I have seen of Amile shows him to be able to run the floor and defend. I also go by what people who have seen a lot of him have said. Those people refer to him as a "glue stick."

I just don't see a coherent strategy with Kelly out there on defense against good teams. Kelly is not a bad player by any means, but his skills make him difficult to fit into a strategy on the team right now. We don't have a Battier to hound guys. We don't have a Brand or a Boozer to dominate around the rim and cover up when he isn't as physical. We don't have a Kyle to be tougher than anybody else on the floor. Without these things, Ryan can mainly get in the way on defense. I say that because he is a long body, but he isn't going to keep guys away from the basket with his body. He isn't going to block shots from guys using an up and under when they move him. He isn't fast enough to run the floor if he gets a tip. These things matter.

I think that with athletic guys who can defend, we can avoid the half court and mask the recent weaknesses of our team, slashing and creating. If we have guys like Rasheed hounding guys on the perimeter, Amile hounding a SF or PF, Alex or MG using their athleticism to defend and break for the outlet pass, on top of Mason, we have a team that doesn't have to rely purely on the half court. The strategy would be to turn them over and run like hell at the basket. It is a foot speed issue IMO.

Against high school kids not college where they are much more skilled and athletic.

What do you mean no coherent strategy? Please elaborate for us or for me because I just do not understand.

Most teams do not have those type of guys and are blessed when they do.

Again elaborate on this because I am unsure how he was "in the way". He attempts to dram too many charges yes, but fix that and he is an ok defender who is usually in good position.


Not fast enough to run the floor? He runs it better than than most true PFs we will actually play. Is Amile faster? Yes I would think so but I am not 100 percent sure but Amile is a different type if forward in how they play.


Yes our weakness was penetration but so was our ability to rotate and I doubt a freshmen will grasp our defensive schemes better than Ryan and you do not have to be a great athlete to play good d. It helps but focus and discipline are much bigger contributors.


Exactly! We have MG and Alex who both could play PF for us as well, especially against really mobile bigs like how State uses CJ Leslie. Why would we need Amile to
do that?

Run like hell? We would be able to run like hell and force turn overs by replacing one guy (Kelly) with an unproven freshmen PF who in all likelihood will not have our defense down.

JNort
04-15-2012, 04:01 PM
I am not a troll. We just lost our one guy we relied on to create for himself. I think we can all agree, right? We are getting Rasheed who is very good, but is not the jab step crossover artist that Austin was, right (it is rare that anybody can create as well as Austin)? We didn't really run that much this year, right? Our defense was not too difficult for athletic teams to penetrate against, right? That was a problem based off of lateral movement. Do you think a guy who has fast feet on the inside could recover and stop the ball when a guy is penetrating (think Lance Thomas)? Look at our loss against Lehigh, we weren't even stopping the ball towards the end. They took the inbounds pass right to the basket. These things seem to point to wanting to avoid the half court where we will rely largely on the 3 point shot and try to play athletic on ball defense and run. I think Amile would let us do that better than Ryan.

To sum up. We won't be a team that can slash a lot. Instead of relying purely on the 3, I think it would be smart to try to use defensive intensity and athleticism to run for easy points in transition to add to the shots we hit in the half court. Mason can run the floor. Amile would be able to run the floor. Rasheed would be able to run the floor. Tyler and Quinn can defend and throw the outlet/run the floor. Alex and Gbinije can run the floor. Perhaps I am responding heavily to what the critique of most analysts was last year, but I would like to get several athletes. Even if it doesn't translate in the half court offense (Lance Thomas and McClure), it would add easier points (transition) and keep opponents points off the board for wins. When we are forced to use the half court, we have shooters that will have ups and downs and we can dump the ball to mason in the post (he is reliable when opponents are kept honest by the shooters).

OK thank you for responding and this is much better said but I still do not understand where you are getting this from. MG was touted as a great defensive player in high school was he not? He himself struggled with our defense and barely saw the court and he was at a position of drastic need where Amile is not.

Gthoma2a
04-15-2012, 07:42 PM
OK thank you for responding and this is much better said but I still do not understand where you are getting this from. MG was touted as a great defensive player in high school was he not? He himself struggled with our defense and barely saw the court and he was at a position of drastic need where Amile is not.

I don't know why Gbinije didn't get a shot, but I am thinking that it is because we had Austin who we needed on the court so desperately and Tyler/Quinn were necessary to run the point. That meant we would have to get rid of Seth or Dre. We could do that since, to get points, we relied so heavily on shooting percentages. I also kind of think that it would be interesting to see if we are looking at Amile like we usually do 6-8 guys. If we see him as a 3-4, then it would explain the difference between Michael and him. I would have liked to see more tinkering around with the team last year (Michael playing more with Quinn and Austin), but I defer to K's superior knowledge. I I don't think it is that he doesn't want to see the team speed the game up with athleticism, but that we don't have enough of them to put a strategy like that into action. That, or he thought that our athletic players got a little loose with the ball when they were out there together (it would have been a young team with Quinn, Austin and Gbinije).

Since we don't have a Scheyer or a Singler on this team, we may as well get athletes that play with passion and see what develops. Kyle was so physical that he made up for not being the fastest guy on the floor or being able to jump out of the gym (I believe he was half terminator) and Scheyer was a slow footed magician around the rim. I don't understand how Jon did what he did, but I loved him for doing it. He put spin on the ball in ways that I hadn't ever seen before and his dribbling was nothing fancy, but it was extremely effective. Even when he got fouled to the ground, I had the automatic expectation that the shot was going in. That isn't what we have right now IMO.

jimsumner
04-15-2012, 10:27 PM
It's certainly possible for a Duke senior to lose a starting spot and/or see his PT drop. It happened to Greg Newton, it happened to Greg Paulus, it happened to Jeff Capel for awhile, although he regained his starting spot. Ricky Price, Taymon Domzalski, Carmen Wallace and others had diminished PT as seniors.

But that's a pretty small percentage of Duke seniors who came into their senior season with major PT. In another thread, I've disagreed with a poster who thinks Ryan Kelly is better than James Michael McAdoo. But I think that's a lot more accurate than the idea that Kelly will drop behind Amile Jefferson because Duke doesn't know how to properly use Kelly.

That said, I do think there's PT available for Jefferson as a freshman. I would expect Mason and Kelly to start and average in the neighborhood of 55 mpg, maybe a tad more, maybe a tad less.

That leaves around 25 mpg at the 4/5. Jefferson would be competing for those minutes with a redshirt freshman and a junior, who has proven to be a solid complementary player but hasn't shown much more. So, it doesn't take a huge leap of faith to see Jefferson getting well over 5 mpg and positioning himself nicely for his sophomore season, a season in which Duke likely will be replacing two senior starters in the post positions. So, there is a need for Jefferson.

Greg_Newton
04-15-2012, 10:30 PM
It's certainly possible for a Duke senior to lose a starting spot and/or see his PT drop. It happened to Greg Newton

Don't see why you have to embarrass me in front of everybody like that... jeesh.

:p

Devilsfan
04-15-2012, 11:10 PM
To think GN was recruited out of Canada and Steve Nash was overlooked. Proof recruiting is not a science. A perceived need and being able to fill that need are completely different.

Gthoma2a
04-15-2012, 11:30 PM
It's certainly possible for a Duke senior to lose a starting spot and/or see his PT drop. It happened to Greg Newton, it happened to Greg Paulus, it happened to Jeff Capel for awhile, although he regained his starting spot. Ricky Price, Taymon Domzalski, Carmen Wallace and others had diminished PT as seniors.

But that's a pretty small percentage of Duke seniors who came into their senior season with major PT. In another thread, I've disagreed with a poster who thinks Ryan Kelly is better than James Michael McAdoo. But I think that's a lot more accurate than the idea that Kelly will drop behind Amile Jefferson because Duke doesn't know how to properly use Kelly.

That said, I do think there's PT available for Jefferson as a freshman. I would expect Mason and Kelly to start and average in the neighborhood of 55 mpg, maybe a tad more, maybe a tad less.

That leaves around 25 mpg at the 4/5. Jefferson would be competing for those minutes with a redshirt freshman and a junior, who has proven to be a solid complementary player but hasn't shown much more. So, it doesn't take a huge leap of faith to see Jefferson getting well over 5 mpg and positioning himself nicely for his sophomore season, a season in which Duke likely will be replacing two senior starters in the post positions. So, there is a need for Jefferson.

I get that. I just want us to adapt. Some of these losses, it seems, these teams have been using the same scouting reports against us. I hope we make it more difficult than stop the 3 (force us to try to penetrate), drive and make our defender stay with your athletic players on cuts. Obviously it won't be the end of the world no matter what, but I think it would be good to reinvent ourselves.

jimsumner
04-15-2012, 11:40 PM
I get that. I just want us to adapt. Some of these losses, it seems, these teams have been using the same scouting reports against us. I hope we make it more difficult than stop the 3 (force us to try to penetrate), drive and make our defender stay with your athletic players on cuts. Obviously it won't be the end of the world no matter what, but I think it would be good to reinvent ourselves.

I'd like to see Duke reduce its reliance on the 3 by scoring more in transition and using its D to generate offense. I think an upgrade at PG will help in that area as much as it will help in the half-court offense.

Kedsy
04-15-2012, 11:50 PM
I'd like to see Duke reduce its reliance on the 3 by scoring more in transition and using its D to generate offense. I think an upgrade at PG will help in that area as much as it will help in the half-court offense.

Are you talking about upgrading to Quinn or Rasheed? Or about Seth or Tyler improving over the summer?

jimsumner
04-16-2012, 10:21 AM
Are you talking about upgrading to Quinn or Rasheed? Or about Seth or Tyler improving over the summer?

Just playing better. I'd love for TT to be the guy. But I think the more likely scenario is for Cook to stay healthy and go the woodshed over the summer. He's the guy who can push in transition and get some easy baskets for his teammates. He's the guy who can break his defender down and get the ball to the open man. He's the guy who can find the teammate curling off a screen and get him the ball. at the right time, in the right place.

That was just missing from last year's team. If the 3 wasn't falling, Duke just had to work too hard to score. Duke needs a true playmaker at the point in order to generate more easy baskets.

Improved D would also help, the kind of D that traps a ball-handler and forces him to make a contested pass, one that's picked off and leads to a fast break the other way. Think about it. How often did we see that last season compared to other seasons? Duke has long used a suffocating and confrontational defense to not only stop the other team but also to generate easy points. And Cook has to be able to do that, also. Dawkins could be a very good defender if he wanted to be. Murphy? Sulaimon?

Duke needs Cook to earn--not be given--the starting PG spot and use that to play solid D and average 4.5-5.0 assists per game. He has to be able to shoot well enough to keep the defense honest but I don't think he needs to be a primary scorer. Think Tommy Amaker, c. 1984-1986. Even Quinn Snyder, 1988-89. He QB'd Duke to two FFs.

That's the kind of upgrade I'm talking about. A point guard who makes his teammates better. Duke almost always has that but didn't last season. Need to find that on the 2012-13 roster. It's not like K can troll the waiver wire or make a trade. Cook is the best bet, IMO. An absolute key for next season.

CDu
04-16-2012, 10:39 AM
Just playing better. I'd love for TT to be the guy. But I think the more likely scenario is for Cook to stay healthy and go the woodshed over the summer. He's the guy who can push in transition and get some easy baskets for his teammates. He's the guy who can break his defender down and get the ball to the open man. He's the guy who can find the teammate curling off a screen and get him the ball. at the right time, in the right place.

That was just missing from last year's team. If the 3 wasn't falling, Duke just had to work too hard to score. Duke needs a true playmaker at the point in order to generate more easy baskets.

Improved D would also help, the kind of D that traps a ball-handler and forces him to make a contested pass, one that's picked off and leads to a fast break the other way. Think about it. How often did we see that last season compared to other seasons? Duke has long used a suffocating and confrontational defense to not only stop the other team but also to generate easy points. And Cook has to be able to do that, also. Dawkins could be a very good defender if he wanted to be. Murphy? Sulaimon?

Duke needs Cook to earn--not be given--the starting PG spot and use that to play solid D and average 4.5-5.0 assists per game. He has to be able to shoot well enough to keep the defense honest but I don't think he needs to be a primary scorer. Think Tommy Amaker, c. 1984-1986. Even Quinn Snyder, 1988-89. He QB'd Duke to two FFs.

That's the kind of upgrade I'm talking about. A point guard who makes his teammates better. Duke almost always has that but didn't last season. Need to find that on the 2012-13 roster. It's not like K can troll the waiver wire or make a trade. Cook is the best bet, IMO. An absolute key for next season.

I agree with this. I think Cook is the guy with the tools to be an elite PG, moreso than Curry or Thornton. But he has to prove he can play enough defense to warrant the job. I think that Thornton was a "last resort" last year, and I think it's unlikely that he will be able to expand his game to become the kind of playmaker that will generate easy offense. Whether or not Cook makes the jump remains to be seen. Hopefully he can do it. But I completely agree that he shouldn't be simply given the job.

The other thing that needs to happen is a more fluid movement of the ball in general. When our offense was at its best historically, the ball moved quickly around the perimeter (or in and out) until it found an open man. This past year rarely had that kind of fluidity, in large part because some guys had a bit of tunnel vision offensively. Quicker ball movement is one way to create open shots even if you don't have a ton of great ballhandlers (which we aren't likely to have next year).

Bluealum
04-16-2012, 10:53 AM
Just playing better. I'd love for TT to be the guy. But I think the more likely scenario is for Cook to stay healthy and go the woodshed over the summer. He's the guy who can push in transition and get some easy baskets for his teammates. He's the guy who can break his defender down and get the ball to the open man. He's the guy who can find the teammate curling off a screen and get him the ball. at the right time, in the right place.

That was just missing from last year's team. If the 3 wasn't falling, Duke just had to work too hard to score. Duke needs a true playmaker at the point in order to generate more easy baskets.

Improved D would also help, the kind of D that traps a ball-handler and forces him to make a contested pass, one that's picked off and leads to a fast break the other way. Think about it. How often did we see that last season compared to other seasons? Duke has long used a suffocating and confrontational defense to not only stop the other team but also to generate easy points. And Cook has to be able to do that, also. Dawkins could be a very good defender if he wanted to be. Murphy? Sulaimon?

Duke needs Cook to earn--not be given--the starting PG spot and use that to play solid D and average 4.5-5.0 assists per game. He has to be able to shoot well enough to keep the defense honest but I don't think he needs to be a primary scorer. Think Tommy Amaker, c. 1984-1986. Even Quinn Snyder, 1988-89. He QB'd Duke to two FFs.

That's the kind of upgrade I'm talking about. A point guard who makes his teammates better. Duke almost always has that but didn't last season. Need to find that on the 2012-13 roster. It's not like K can troll the waiver wire or make a trade. Cook is the best bet, IMO. An absolute key for next season.

I couldn't agree more, and better articulated than I ever could. If Quinn doesn't earn that sport and Tyler is getting more minutes at the point than Quinn next year there will be several negative consequences for others.

1.) We will rely, once again on the three as defenses pack the lane as our two most potent players next year will be Ryan and Mason. While Ryan can shoot from range, pulling him out makes Mason less effective when Ryan's shot is not falling as folks will collapse the lane even more, and there is no secondary big to collect misses in this scenario. Double whammy as our two best offensive players will rise and fall in efficiency together with a high degree of correlation.

2.) Mason will not get the best looks inside in general, as he is very quick and athletic but needs passes delivered to him in the right place as his footwork is only average. This is critical for our team next year in terms of offensive balance and variety. It's important for Mason, validating his choice of staying an extra year. It is critical in showing recruits that we really will use a big man effectively, as long as we have the guys on the roster who are great passers, as we typically do.

3.) With the threat of penetration, more interior offense, more movement, and better passing which all happen when Quinn is playing effectively, Andre will get more open looks and we have the chance to one of the most under-appreciated weapons in D-1. With looks and his shot falling, his defensive tenacity will surely be positively impacted.

All this of course depends on the health and maturation of QC. Mason will be our best player, but I don't think there is a more important player for our team than Quinn next year.

azzefkram
04-16-2012, 01:26 PM
Just playing better. I'd love for TT to be the guy. But I think the more likely scenario is for Cook to stay healthy and go the woodshed over the summer. He's the guy who can push in transition and get some easy baskets for his teammates. He's the guy who can break his defender down and get the ball to the open man. He's the guy who can find the teammate curling off a screen and get him the ball. at the right time, in the right place.

That was just missing from last year's team. If the 3 wasn't falling, Duke just had to work too hard to score. Duke needs a true playmaker at the point in order to generate more easy baskets.

Improved D would also help, the kind of D that traps a ball-handler and forces him to make a contested pass, one that's picked off and leads to a fast break the other way. Think about it. How often did we see that last season compared to other seasons? Duke has long used a suffocating and confrontational defense to not only stop the other team but also to generate easy points. And Cook has to be able to do that, also. Dawkins could be a very good defender if he wanted to be. Murphy? Sulaimon?

Duke needs Cook to earn--not be given--the starting PG spot and use that to play solid D and average 4.5-5.0 assists per game. He has to be able to shoot well enough to keep the defense honest but I don't think he needs to be a primary scorer. Think Tommy Amaker, c. 1984-1986. Even Quinn Snyder, 1988-89. He QB'd Duke to two FFs.

That's the kind of upgrade I'm talking about. A point guard who makes his teammates better. Duke almost always has that but didn't last season. Need to find that on the 2012-13 roster. It's not like K can troll the waiver wire or make a trade. Cook is the best bet, IMO. An absolute key for next season.

I agree with almost everything you wrote except for the second sentence of bolded section. Neither TT nor Seth bring that to the table. I thought toward the end of the year Quinn's defense had improved enough to give me hope that further healing and work could lead to better defense as a sophomore.

bounce840
04-16-2012, 02:43 PM
Is Jefferson a power forward or a small forward?? He would probably get alot of minutes of Duke.

CDu
04-16-2012, 02:58 PM
Is Jefferson a power forward or a small forward?? He would probably get alot of minutes of Duke.

He's a PF, but a skinny one. He's not likely to get a lot of minutes next year, but certainly would be in the running for major minutes as a sophomore.

elvis14
04-16-2012, 04:16 PM
As much as I miss Elton Brand playing for Duke, anyone have AJ updates?

dukedoc
04-16-2012, 08:39 PM
As much as I miss Elton Brand playing for Duke, anyone have AJ updates?

Nothing that is available to non-paying curious minds like my own. The last thing I've seen from a media type was a tweet from Clint Jackson late last week indicating AJ's camp had not returned his recent phone calls. Either they're ignoring him specifically or they've perhaps "gone dark". The quiet before the storm perhaps. That tweet was around the time when Evan Daniels indicated AJ could announce at any time, positing that it would most likely come after the weekend (i.e. right now). In other words, who knows....

Greg_Newton
04-16-2012, 10:27 PM
Since there's no news, here's a thought. I know Amile seems absurdly skinny right now and like he'd get broken in the post... but so did a lot of other monster PFs when they were his age. Check it out:

Amile Jefferson (http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=4310165)
Derrick Williams (http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=3127032)
Josh Smith (http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=447770)
Marcus Morris (http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=2122827)

dukedoc
04-16-2012, 10:36 PM
Since there's no news, here's a thought. I know Amile seems absurdly skinny right now and like he'd get broken in the post... but so did a lot of other monster PFs when they were his age. Check it out:

Amile Jefferson (http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=4310165)
Derrick Williams (http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=3127032)
Josh Smith (http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=447770)
Marcus Morris (http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=2122827)


If Amile can make a physical transition anywhere near what these guys did, he will be a force as an upperclassman. He already has very nice skills, a good motor, and perhaps most importantly, great smarts, a great personality, and a great attitude. He is a guy I really think K could do wonders with.

mpholt
04-18-2012, 11:58 AM
CJ Leslie just announced he is returning to State... hopefully that pushes Amile closer to us....

dukedoc
04-18-2012, 12:12 PM
CJ Leslie just announced he is returning to State... hopefully that pushes Amile closer to us....

Hopefully. With both Mason and CJ back, and Amile's prior leanings, on net I would think that would push him further west on I-40.

That said, KY is in on this, and they may be stronger than most think, particularly given their recent exodus. However, Amile is as academically-focused as recruits get, so that would seem to disqualify Cal's factory, but who knows.

BlueDevilBrowns
04-18-2012, 12:14 PM
CJ Leslie just announced he is returning to State... hopefully that pushes Amile closer to us....

I don't see how it could possibly hurt our chances. We would/could offer meaningful minutes next year now that Silent G is gone. I could certainly envision Amile playing at the 4(maybe even 3 in special cases) as Kelly's primary backup, with Murphy being the starter at the 3.

I wonder if Amile commits to Duke, how would that affect the decision of Tony Parker, if at all?

Class of '94
04-18-2012, 12:19 PM
Hopefully. With both Mason and CJ back, and Amile's prior leanings, on net I would think that would push him further west on I-40.

That said, KY is in on this, and they may be stronger than most think, particularly given their recent exodus. However, Amile is as academically-focused as recruits get, so that would seem to disqualify Cal's factory, but who knows.

I'm wondering if this developement pushes Amile towards one of his hometown teams (Temple or Villanova). I believe both those schools would offer him significant playing time for a school that plays in a major conference like the BE.

sagegrouse
04-18-2012, 12:24 PM
I'm wondering if this developement pushes Amile towards one of his hometown teams (Temple or Villanova). I believe both those schools would offer him significant playing time for a school that plays in a major conference like the BE.

Thanks for putting us back on track. I have fond memories of Elton, but this is an Amile thread.

You may be right. I think Duke would counter that (a) he will get some playing time in 2013, (b) he needs to be stronger for major college competition and practicing against Mason et al. will help him develop, and (c) we have loads of PT for bigs in 2013-2014 after Ryan and Mason graduate.

sagegrouse

UrinalCake
04-18-2012, 12:25 PM
Since there's no news, here's a thought. I know Amile seems absurdly skinny right now and like he'd get broken in the post... but so did a lot of other monster PFs when they were his age. Check it out:

How could you leave out the Sultan of Skinny himself?

2584

yancem
04-18-2012, 01:04 PM
Thanks for putting us back on track. I have fond memories of Elton, but this is an Amile thread.

You may be right. I think Duke would counter that (a) he will get some playing time in 2013, (b) he needs to be stronger for major college competition and practicing against Mason et al. will help him develop, and (c) we have loads of PT for bigs in 2013-2014 after Ryan and Mason graduate.

sagegrouse

Given that it has been reported that he has never seriously lifted weights, would redshirting be an option? I normally wouldn't ask because it seems to happen so rarely in basketball (especially for a top 25 recruit) but since Duke had two last year it seems to be somewhat logical for Jefferson. I don't get the impression that he is a likely early entry candidate and that right now his game is geared more to the low post but will need added strength at the college level. Sitting out a year would allow him to gain weight/strength as well as work on his perimeter skills since he would likely be a 3 when/if he makes it to the nba. With the departure of {g} we may need Jefferson next season so the question my be moot, I'm just curious.

Kedsy
04-18-2012, 01:07 PM
Given that it has been reported that he has never seriously lifted weights, would redshirting be an option? I normally wouldn't ask because it seems to happen so rarely in basketball (especially for a top 25 recruit) but since Duke had two last year it seems to be somewhat logical for Jefferson. I don't get the impression that he is a likely early entry candidate and that right now his game is geared more to the low post but will need added strength at the college level. Sitting out a year would allow him to gain weight/strength as well as work on his perimeter skills since he would likely be a 3 when/if he makes it to the nba. With the departure of {g} we may need Jefferson next season so the question my be moot, I'm just curious.

If Kentucky says, hey, come and play big minutes on a top 10 team and Duke says, hey, come redshirt, I'm not sure it would be the best sell on our part.

Dr. Rosenrosen
04-18-2012, 01:18 PM
I think we all know K and company will tell AJ exactly what they believe he can accomplish at Duke but will be very clear with him that time is earned. No guarantees to anyone, ever. Hopefully he sees a great opportunity in having a successful multi-year college career playing for one of the best coaches ever, getting a fantastic education... and without necessarily having to constantly look over his shoulder for the next group of one-and-doners that might eat into his playing time and progress b/c they've been guaranteed major minutes (or whatever it is that Cal tells them).

RoyalBlue08
04-18-2012, 01:24 PM
I think we all know K and company will tell AJ exactly what they believe he can accomplish at Duke but will be very clear with him that time is earned. No guarantees to anyone, ever. Hopefully he sees a great opportunity in having a successful multi-year college career playing for one of the best coaches ever, getting a fantastic education... and without necessarily having to constantly look over his shoulder for the next group of one-and-doners that might eat into his playing time and progress b/c they've been guaranteed major minutes (or whatever it is that Cal tells them).

I think this contains a very good point that I'm not sure some of these high school guys consider. If you are going to Kentucky these days as a guy who is not a sure fire one and done lottery pick, you very well may get buried on the bench later in your career. It's not like Cal using a deep bench. He plays all these one and done guys 30+ minutes it seems. So it would be very easy for a 4 year guy to get recruited over and marginalized.

Starter
04-18-2012, 01:41 PM
I think this contains a very good point that I'm not sure some of these high school guys consider. If you are going to Kentucky these days as a guy who is not a sure fire one and done lottery pick, you very well may get buried on the bench later in your career. It's not like Cal using a deep bench. He plays all these one and done guys 30+ minutes it seems. So it would be very easy for a 4 year guy to get recruited over and marginalized.

I'm trying to think of examples of this. Darius Miller, I guess? But Cal didn't recruit him, he still played 26 minutes a game, he's still probably going to get drafted, and it's hard to argue with him being the sixth man when all the guys ahead of him were that good. Kyle Wiltjer didn't play a whole lot in the tournament, but he got some pretty decent minutes in league games last year and will definitely be a factor going forward. Is there someone I'm missing? Not trying to be a jerk, there very well could be, but I can't think of any right now.

Edit: You know what? Come to think of it, Stacey Poole Jr. might preemptively fall into this category, given that he didn't play much as a freshman and transferred before his sophomore year. Like with Gbinije, who knows what would have happened had he stuck it out? But yeah, I guess you can potentially put him in that category of being squeezed out due to too much talent.

Dr. Rosenrosen
04-18-2012, 01:48 PM
I think this contains a very good point that I'm not sure some of these high school guys consider. If you are going to Kentucky these days as a guy who is not a sure fire one and done lottery pick, you very well may get buried on the bench later in your career. It's not like Cal using a deep bench. He plays all these one and done guys 30+ minutes it seems. So it would be very easy for a 4 year guy to get recruited over and marginalized.

UK was barely 7 deep this year. Top 6 players got 33, 32, 31, 31, 29 and 26 mpg. Wiltjer got 11 mpg and 5 ppg. Interesting as you saw darius miller get 5 fewer mpg this year vs. last year and his ppg went from 11 to 10 from his jr to sr season. Little doubt the big 5 impacted his mpg and ppg trajectory. Patrick Patterson is also interesting in that his mpg was nearly the same from soph to junior but his ppg by season was... 16.4, 17.9, 14.3 with his last year production being eaten into by the arrival of cousins et al. Yes, Patterson got drafted 14th anyway. Darius Miller looking like a definite second rounder. Anyway, it does offer some evidence that at UK, at least these days, it is not unlikely that your trajectory can be thrown off by the arrival of the next crop of young'ns.

Starter
04-18-2012, 01:58 PM
UK was barely 7 deep this year. Top 6 players got 33, 32, 31, 31, 29 and 26 mpg. Wiltjer got 11 mpg and 5 ppg. Interesting as you saw darius miller get 5 fewer mpg this year vs. last year and his ppg went from 11 to 10 from his jr to sr season. Little doubt the big 5 impacted his mpg and ppg trajectory. Patrick Patterson is also interesting in that his mpg was nearly the same from soph to junior but his ppg by season was... 16.4, 17.9, 14.3 with his last year production being eaten into by the arrival of cousins et al. Yes, Patterson got drafted 14th anyway. Darius Miller looking like a definite second rounder. Anyway, it does offer some evidence that at UK, at least these days, it is not unlikely that your trajectory can be thrown off by the arrival of the next crop of young'ns.

Yeah... but Darius Miller was never, like, an unbelievable player. Kidd-Gilchrist is, and Miller didn't win a starting spot over Lamb -- who's good, don't get me wrong, but not unassailable. I'd assume Miller's going to get drafted where he would have anyway. Were Patterson's numbers depressed a little bit by Cousins, Wall and Bledsoe? Definitely, but the attention level for his team went way up. Who's to say that didn't help him become a lottery pick? Heck, it got Orton drafted when he wasn't even playing. (Though I guess he's shown some flashes recently...) And if you look at UK's roster, I have trouble picking out players that weren't playing this year that should have been.

Not that I have love lost for Kentucky, it's just that they have a good thing going there, and to pick nits seems like sour grapes. If I'm Amile Jefferson, I can't go wrong either way; the situations look kind of similar and they're both great programs. That said, there's no way he plays over Poythress, et. al. But if he doesn't really want to play the 4, he's potentially looking at four years of Murphy to contend with, and Duke IS recruiting Jabari Parker and Julius Randle...

UrinalCake
04-18-2012, 02:18 PM
I'm trying to think of examples of this. Darius Miller, I guess?

Maybe the reason you can't think of any is because the players actually did get buried on the bench, therefore no one has ever heard of them. I'm with Royal Blue, I think Jefferson has to be wary of going to Kentucky knowing that they're going to bring in multiple blue-chip guys every year who could win up starting over him. At Duke that could happen too, but it's far more likely IMO that he'd follow a natural trajectory and earn more playing time each year, as Coach K values experience.

Starter
04-18-2012, 02:24 PM
Maybe the reason you can't think of any is because the players actually did get buried on the bench, therefore no one has ever heard of them. I'm with Royal Blue, I think Jefferson has to be wary of going to Kentucky knowing that they're going to bring in multiple blue-chip guys every year who could win up starting over him. At Duke that could happen too, but it's far more likely IMO that he'd follow a natural trajectory and earn more playing time each year, as Coach K values experience.

Yeah, okay. I can see what you're saying, that's probably in the back of his mind based on the classes they keep bringing in. But I'd think it would be a potential issue at any major program, and if you're good enough, it takes care of itself.

(Here's (http://www.ukathletics.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/kty-m-baskbl-mtt.html) UK's roster this year, by the way. I'm still having trouble finding anyone who got buried. I guess maybe Twany Beckham, but it seems he technically transferred there as a walk-on.)

yancem
04-18-2012, 02:40 PM
If Kentucky says, hey, come and play big minutes on a top 10 team and Duke says, hey, come redshirt, I'm not sure it would be the best sell on our part.

I get what you're saying. I was just bringing the thought up because from all of the reports I've read, he really needs strength training and redshirting could (and that is the key word) give him the best chance at making the nba. Of course few recruits want to hear that and like I said I wouldn't have thought it to be a possibility if it weren't for MP3 and Murphy doing it this year. For all I know Jefferson may be able to play some minutes as a freshman and develop enough over the next few years that redshirting wouldn't be all that helpful. I was just curious to know if the thought crossed anyone else mind.

BTW, I'm not so sure he would play big minutes at KY next season though. Noel will get big minutes at the 5, Wiltjer should start at the 4, Poythress will play big minutes as a combo forward, Hood should get some minutes in the front court and they may still sign Bennett.

CDu
04-18-2012, 02:40 PM
I'm trying to think of examples of this. Darius Miller, I guess? But Cal didn't recruit him, he still played 26 minutes a game, he's still probably going to get drafted, and it's hard to argue with him being the sixth man when all the guys ahead of him were that good. Kyle Wiltjer didn't play a whole lot in the tournament, but he got some pretty decent minutes in league games last year and will definitely be a factor going forward. Is there someone I'm missing? Not trying to be a jerk, there very well could be, but I can't think of any right now.

Edit: You know what? Come to think of it, Stacey Poole Jr. might preemptively fall into this category, given that he didn't play much as a freshman and transferred before his sophomore year. Like with Gbinije, who knows what would have happened had he stuck it out? But yeah, I guess you can potentially put him in that category of being squeezed out due to too much talent.

There's a very real possibility that Wiltjer becomes the example. If UK lands Bennett, the primary frontcourt rotation is going to be Noel, Bennett, and Poythress, with Bennett perhaps playing some C and Poythress some PF. Wiltjer may end up in the same backup role again next year. And depending upon how successful Calipari is at reloading (I'm guessing he'll be in the hunt for Randle and some other bigs), the same may be true the year after.

mr. synellinden
04-18-2012, 02:56 PM
From a Scout chat today on their new top 100:

Not Jack : ]
Both you guys still thinking State for Jefferson?
Wednesday April 18, 2012 1:33 Not Jack
1:33
Evan Daniels: It seems to change daily with Jefferson. He clearly is having a tough time deciding as he keeps pushing back his decision. Right now I'd say NC State and Duke are really battling.

-bdbd
04-18-2012, 02:57 PM
Hopefully. With both Mason and CJ back, and Amile's prior leanings, on net I would think that would push him further west on I-40.

That said, KY is in on this, and they may be stronger than most think, particularly given their recent exodus. However, Amile is as academically-focused as recruits get, so that would seem to disqualify Cal's factory, but who knows.

I'm thinking that the developments of the last week should have helped Duke a bit vis-a-vis the AJ recruitment. Leslie staying, MP2's return and Silent-G's departure... Amile HAS to realize that most of his Freshman minutes will come in the role of a "3," maybe as a big wing who sometimes goes inside. At that weight and thin build he simply won't be able to last long inside. So, MP2's return probably doesn't cost him many minutes, other than via domino-affect, by bumping RK and maybe Murphy/JH down the line. But CJ Leslie is much closer of a direct-competitor for Amile's minutes. I'm thinking MP2 as a strong compliment to AJ's more perimeter/slasher-oriented current game.

I have been reading the KY recruitment of AJ with some degree of skepticism. That's b/c he just doesn't seem to be of the KY "one and done" mentality. This is a kid who will probably grow a lot, phisically and skill-wise, over the next few years. And that "development model" wouldn't seem to be Calimari's M.O. We'll know soon enough.

BTW, anybody know what is the latest on AJ's projected decision timeline?
:confused:

CDu
04-18-2012, 03:47 PM
I'm thinking that the developments of the last week should have helped Duke a bit vis-a-vis the AJ recruitment. Leslie staying, MP2's return and Silent-G's departure... Amile HAS to realize that most of his Freshman minutes will come in the role of a "3," maybe as a big wing who sometimes goes inside. At that weight and thin build he simply won't be able to last long inside. So, MP2's return probably doesn't cost him many minutes, other than via domino-affect, by bumping RK and maybe Murphy/JH down the line. But CJ Leslie is much closer of a direct-competitor for Amile's minutes. I'm thinking MP2 as a strong compliment to AJ's more perimeter/slasher-oriented current game.

I have been reading the KY recruitment of AJ with some degree of skepticism. That's b/c he just doesn't seem to be of the KY "one and done" mentality. This is a kid who will probably grow a lot, phisically and skill-wise, over the next few years. And that "development model" wouldn't seem to be Calimari's M.O. We'll know soon enough.

BTW, anybody know what is the latest on AJ's projected decision timeline?
:confused:

Mason's impact on Jefferson's minutes are that he takes away minutes at PF by bumping Kelly and/or Hairston back down to PF instead of filling minutes at C. Leslie plays exclusively at PF. If you are suggesting that Jefferson will play at SF, then neither player ever really were taking Jefferson's minutes. So neither factored in. In that scenario, Duke has Murphy and Dawkins, State has Wood and Warren, and Kentucky has Poythress. So none are slam dunk options for minutes next year.

I've always believed he was more of a college PF than a SF (he just happens to have a SF body). As such, the decisions of Mason (indirectly) and Leslie (directly) do matter. As would the decision of Anthony Bennett (a better freshman PF) at UK matters.

ACCBBallFan
04-18-2012, 07:33 PM
I'm thinking that the developments of the last week should have helped Duke a bit vis-a-vis the AJ recruitment. Leslie staying, MP2's return and Silent-G's departure... Amile HAS to realize that most of his Freshman minutes will come in the role of a "3," maybe as a big wing who sometimes goes inside. At that weight and thin build he simply won't be able to last long inside. So, MP2's return probably doesn't cost him many minutes, other than via domino-affect, by bumping RK and maybe Murphy/JH down the line. But CJ Leslie is much closer of a direct-competitor for Amile's minutes. I'm thinking MP2 as a strong compliment to AJ's more perimeter/slasher-oriented current game.

I have been reading the KY recruitment of AJ with some degree of skepticism. That's b/c he just doesn't seem to be of the KY "one and done" mentality. This is a kid who will probably grow a lot, phisically and skill-wise, over the next few years. And that "development model" wouldn't seem to be Calimari's M.O. We'll know soon enough.

BTW, anybody know what is the latest on AJ's projected decision timeline?
:confused:Yes, and UK is still going after Bennett too, as Duke is after Rodney but latter is ineliigible next year.

Various rating agencies list Amile on average at about 6' 9" 200 pounds, some as low as 6'7" 190. As was the case with Ryan his freshman year, too frail to compete with Ryan and Josh both about 235 pounds, even if Amile skill set is better than Josh. With Howell for State or possibly Tony Parker for Duke in the paint, Amile would get crushed.

Amile is a decent player apparently, but no Kevin Durant or Brandon Wright or Tayshaun Prince or CJ Leslie caliber just yet.

Duke's need is for a tall WF to compete with Alex every day in practice. If he is sufficiently ready Amile and Alex could jointly total about 30 minutes at WF with Dre getting the other 10 at WF, plus some minutes at SG. Alex may displace Josh as the primary PF sub which would open up a few more WF minutes for Amile and Dre.

Comparable to Duke's MP2, MP3, Ryan and Josh, State has Howell, Vandenberg, CJ and deThay.

Comparable to Duke's gunner Andre who has neither the ideal height nor the weight of a typcial WF but does have hops, State has Scott Wood who has the height but not the weight to play forward. Amiles's comparably sized competition at WF has not played a college game yet, be that Alex or T J Warren.

Duke has a little more depth at combo slots but State has enough with LoBrown, Purvis and Graham.

With rosters so comparable it boils down to Amile's comfort level with the two programs, coaches and players with Duke obviously offering more TV exposure but also a more rigorous academic schedule.

We can hold off on discussions of how the 5 guards share time across combo spots plus whatever they can earn as small WF, until after we know if Amile joins and whether he can play WF or like Henson can only play a tall frail PF.

Steven43
04-18-2012, 08:02 PM
Yeah... but Darius Miller was never, like, an unbelievable player. Kidd-Gilchrist is, and Miller didn't win a starting spot over Lamb -- who's good, don't get me wrong, but not unassailable. I'd assume Miller's going to get drafted where he would have anyway. Were Patterson's numbers depressed a little bit by Cousins, Wall and Bledsoe? Definitely, but the attention level for his team went way up. Who's to say that didn't help him become a lottery pick? Heck, it got Orton drafted when he wasn't even playing. (Though I guess he's shown some flashes recently...) And if you look at UK's roster, I have trouble picking out players that weren't playing this year that should have been.

Not that I have love lost for Kentucky, it's just that they have a good thing going there, and to pick nits seems like sour grapes. If I'm Amile Jefferson, I can't go wrong either way; the situations look kind of similar and they're both great programs. That said, there's no way he plays over Poythress, et. al. But if he doesn't really want to play the 4, he's potentially looking at four years of Murphy to contend with, and Duke IS recruiting Jabari Parker and Julius Randle...

Dude, whose side are you on anyway? I thought you were a Duke fan. You're doing UK's spin job for them.

Attention Amile Jefferson: Do not read the posts from 'Starter'.

Just kidding.

Steven43
04-18-2012, 08:05 PM
Yes, and UK is still going after Bennett too, as Duke is after Rodney but latter is ineliigible next year.

Various rating agencies list Amile on average at about 6' 9" 200 pounds, some as low as 6'7" 190. As was the case with Ryan his freshman year, too frail to compete with Ryan and Josh both about 235 pounds, even if Amile skill set is better than Josh. With Howell for State or possibly Tony Parker for Duke in the paint, Amile would get crushed.

Amile is a decent player apparently, but no Kevin Durant or Brandon Wright or Tayshaun Prince or CJ Leslie caliber just yet.

Duke's need is for a tall WF to compete with Alex every day in practice. If he is sufficiently ready Amile and Alex could jointly total about 30 minutes at WF with Dre getting the other 10 at WF, plus some minutes at SG. Alex may displace Josh as the primary PF sub which would open up a few more WF minutes for Amile and Dre.

Comparable to Duke's MP2, MP3, Ryan and Josh, State has Howell, Vandenberg, CJ and deThay.

Comparable to Duke's gunner Andre who has neither the ideal height nor the weight of a typcial WF but does have hops, State has Scott Wood who has the height but not the weight to play forward. Amiles's comparably sized competition at WF has not played a college game yet, be that Alex or T J Warren.

Duke has a little more depth at combo slots but State has enough with LoBrown, Purvis and Graham.

With rosters so comparable it boils down to Amile's comfort level with the two programs, coaches and players with Duke obviously offering more TV exposure but also a more rigorous academic schedule.

We can hold off on discussions of how the 5 guards share time across combo spots plus whatever they can earn as small WF, until after we know if Amile joins and whether he can play WF or like Henson can only play a tall frail PF.

What exactly is 'WF'? Wing forward? Are you making up new position names now? What exactly does a wing forward do on the court? Maybe the game is passing me by.

ChillinDuke
04-18-2012, 08:23 PM
What exactly is 'WF'? Wing forward? Are you making up new position names now? What exactly does a wing forward do on the court? Maybe the game is passing me by.

You will likely get slightly different takes on this. But generally a wing forward is a tweener, 'tween a guard and a forward. This means anywhere from 6'4" ish to 6'8" ish with a game that is between that of a traditional SG and a traditional PF. Thus, a wing forward is not just a SF, but has the versatility to play any position between (and including) the traditional concepts of a SG, SF, and PF (think college-style PF).

My personal take is that a wing forward is defined best by a player like Kyle Singler. Skills to spot up and shoot threes, slash to the rim, or post up. Versatile on defense to guard large forwards but switch on smaller, quicker guards.

Again, you will get nuanced takes on this, but this is the general gist.

- Chillin

miramar
04-19-2012, 08:00 AM
DeCock agrees that Leslie's return will affect Amile's decision:

"Top-100 recruit Amile Jefferson still has N.C. State on his list, but probably won’t want to play behind Leslie and Richard Howell."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/04/18/2009271/cj-leslie-returning-to-nc-state.html#storylink=cpy

mkline09
04-19-2012, 08:43 AM
I personally would rather have a kid like Amile Jefferson on next years team. He has done the opposite of Tony Parker and been quiet about his recruitment and not given nearly as many dates about his decision just to turn around and change them. He seems sincerely interested in academics and has a lot of respect for K and the Duke program. I think it would be a great pick up for Duke.

CDu
04-19-2012, 08:54 AM
DeCock agrees that Leslie's return will affect Amile's decision:

"Top-100 recruit Amile Jefferson still has N.C. State on his list, but probably won’t want to play behind Leslie and Richard Howell."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/04/18/2009271/cj-leslie-returning-to-nc-state.html#storylink=cpy

By that logic, he probably won't want to play behind Kelly and Mason either.

SupaDave
04-19-2012, 09:00 AM
We all get caught in who "starts" but I thought Scheyer getting starter minutes as a sixth man would have shown most that if you're good, then you play - a LOT.

ACCBBallFan
04-19-2012, 09:09 AM
Too late to edit. In a prior post I accidentally referred to NC St guard as Graham and meant Tyler Lewis, not Torian Graham.

Slackerb
04-19-2012, 10:41 AM
I'm hearing rumors that NC State is no longer in play with Jefferson. Not sure what's going on, but it sounds good for Duke. Don't count out UK quite yet though.

State I think is moving onto other recruits now.


I personally would rather have a kid like Amile Jefferson on next years team. He has done the opposite of Tony Parker and been quiet about his recruitment and not given nearly as many dates about his decision just to turn around and change them. He seems sincerely interested in academics and has a lot of respect for K and the Duke program. I think it would be a great pick up for Duke.

Actually, Jefferson has given quite a few dates about announcing and then pushed it back. He may be no Tony Parker, but he's certainly not had a quiet recruitment.

Dr. Rosenrosen
04-19-2012, 10:44 AM
I'm hearing rumors that NC State is no longer in play with Jefferson. Not sure what's going on, but it sounds good for Duke. Don't count out UK quite yet though.

State I think is moving onto other recruits now.


And your source is...

CDu
04-19-2012, 10:50 AM
We all get caught in who "starts" but I thought Scheyer getting starter minutes as a sixth man would have shown most that if you're good, then you play - a LOT.

Yes, but when you have two guys who are really good in front of you, there aren't a lot of minutes available. Assuming that Kelly were to play all the backup minutes at C and Murphy plays no minutes at PF (assumptions that are highly questionable), that'd leave only ~20 mpg available for Hairston and Jefferson at the PF (and that's assuming 0 minutes for Marshall).

Sometimes, even when you're good, you don't play. Such is the reality when we have 10+ highly-recruited players on the roster. A similar challenge faces State as well.

dukedoc
04-19-2012, 11:05 AM
I'm hearing rumors that NC State is no longer in play with Jefferson. Not sure what's going on, but it sounds good for Duke. Don't count out UK quite yet though.

State I think is moving onto other recruits now.


Please link your source. If your source is the twitterverse ramblings that I've seen this AM, I'm not sure they meet threshold for posting here. If you have something solid, would love to see it and appreciate your sharing.

UrinalCake
04-19-2012, 11:20 AM
Yes, but when you have two guys who are really good in front of you, there aren't a lot of minutes available. Assuming that Kelly were to play all the backup minutes at C and Murphy plays no minutes at PF (assumptions that are highly questionable), that'd leave only ~20 mpg available for Hairston and Jefferson at the PF (and that's assuming 0 minutes for Marshall).

Sounds like you're assuming Mason and Ryan will each play 30 minutes, leaving 20 available for Josh, Marshall, and Jefferson. That's not TOO bad of a situation. First off, if we reduce Mason and Ryan to 55 total minutes, which is about what they averaged this season, then that leaves 25 min. 10 each for Marshall and Amile and 5 for Josh. I think that's a reasonable expectation for each of them. Would Amile scoff at "only" getting 10 minutes a game? None of us really knows. Also I don't think it's out of the question that Alex plays exclusively at the 3, except maybe in end-of-game situations.

Kedsy
04-19-2012, 11:38 AM
Sounds like you're assuming Mason and Ryan will each play 30 minutes, leaving 20 available for Josh, Marshall, and Jefferson. That's not TOO bad of a situation. First off, if we reduce Mason and Ryan to 55 total minutes, which is about what they averaged this season, then that leaves 25 min. 10 each for Marshall and Amile and 5 for Josh. I think that's a reasonable expectation for each of them. Would Amile scoff at "only" getting 10 minutes a game? None of us really knows. Also I don't think it's out of the question that Alex plays exclusively at the 3, except maybe in end-of-game situations.

Well, first of all, if immediate playing time is an issue for Amile then 10 mpg probably isn't what he's looking for. Second, if Marshall and Amile get 10 mpg, as in your example, that would give us 10 guys with double-figure minutes, which simply isn't the way Coach K has ever done things. Doesn't for sure mean he won't try something new, but I wouldn't expect it. If Amile comes to Duke, there will probably be three (or possibly four) guys who hardly play. Considering Amile's need for physical development, my guess is he'd be one of them.

roywhite
04-19-2012, 11:42 AM
Well, first of all, if immediate playing time is an issue for Amile then 10 mpg probably isn't what he's looking for. Second, if Marshall and Amile get 10 mpg, as in your example, that would give us 10 guys with double-figure minutes, which simply isn't the way Coach K has ever done things. Doesn't for sure mean he won't try something new, but I wouldn't expect it. If Amile comes to Duke, there will probably be three (or possibly four) guys who hardly play. Considering Amile's need for physical development, my guess is he'd be one of them.

Sorry if this has already been discussed, but is a redshirt for Amile at Duke something that both he and the staff would consider?

ACCBBallFan
04-19-2012, 12:05 PM
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but is a redshirt for Amile at Duke something that both he and the staff would consider?

I think the difference is that Alex had two older brothers that played Div 1 ball and his family were not as prone to believe people who blow smoke about his immediate NBA prospects, as most recriuits are. Ditto for the Plums.

Depending on how successful Duke is at recruits for the following year, Duke may need Amile even more this year if he can at least resemble a SF to have someone that size besides Alex. The next year with MP2 and Ryan gone, may be when Duke needs the strength buildiig to have taken place so he can be a PF.

Having that 5th year to play college ball is probably not a biggie in Amile's thought process as he likely expects to be a pro by then. So even if minutes are not plentiful ths season, he likely wants them now.

lotusland
04-19-2012, 12:25 PM
It almost seems like not going out early actually has a negative effect on a players perceived NBA readiness. Like if you use all your eligibility then you don't seem to have much up-side left. I wonder if playing 3-years after red-shirting the first year would improve a player's NBA stock over a 4-year player. In other words would Alex benefit more by playing 3 years + his red-shirt year instead of playing 4 a la Singler. No way to ever control variables enough to prove it one way or the other and I doubt anyone would ever intentionally follow that path but the way seniors seem to be down-graded for not going out early it makes me wonder.

CDu
04-19-2012, 12:53 PM
It almost seems like not going out early actually has a negative effect on a players perceived NBA readiness. Like if you use all your eligibility then you don't seem to have much up-side left. I wonder if playing 3-years after red-shirting the first year would improve a player's NBA stock over a 4-year player. In other words would Alex benefit more by playing 3 years + his red-shirt year instead of playing 4 a la Singler. No way to ever control variables enough to prove it one way or the other and I doubt anyone would ever intentionally follow that path but the way seniors seem to be down-graded for not going out early it makes me wonder.

Maybe, but it would seem awfully strange for NBA GMs not to be able to understand that a redshirt junior and a senior are similar in terms of maturity and physical/basketball development. So the upside argument would say very little about the smarts of NBA GMs (insert jokes here).

lotusland
04-19-2012, 01:14 PM
Maybe, but it would seem awfully strange for NBA GMs not to be able to understand that a redshirt junior and a senior are similar in terms of maturity and physical/basketball development. So the upside argument would say very little about the smarts of NBA GMs (insert jokes here).

Yeah that is pretty much my point. Maybe it is subconscious like if a recruit gets upgraded when he is recruited by or signs with a powerhouse program

Kedsy
04-19-2012, 01:27 PM
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but is a redshirt for Amile at Duke something that both he and the staff would consider?

I have no idea whether he or Duke would consider it. But if he has been promised freshman year playing time at places like NC State, Villanova, Temple, and Kentucky, not sure why he'd want to redshirt at Duke. Just my opinion, of course.

Starter
04-19-2012, 01:48 PM
Dude, whose side are you on anyway? I thought you were a Duke fan. You're doing UK's spin job for them.

Attention Amile Jefferson: Do not read the posts from 'Starter'.

Just kidding.

Totally my bad. Sometimes I'm too objective for my own good. Just ask my fiancee.

For the record, if Amile IS reading, I totally think he should go to Duke.

ChicagoCrazy84
04-19-2012, 04:49 PM
Has anyone talked about Anthony Bennett in this process? I think Kentucky is going hard after him as well, but I don't know where Anthony is at in his decision making. I would think that if Bennett chooses to go to Kentucky, Amile would go elsewhere because they would then have Bennett and Wiltjer in their depth chart. I know Bennett is likely a one-and-doner anyway, but just a thought.

CDu
04-19-2012, 05:00 PM
Has anyone talked about Anthony Bennett in this process? I think Kentucky is going hard after him as well, but I don't know where Anthony is at in his decision making. I would think that if Bennett chooses to go to Kentucky, Amile would go elsewhere because they would then have Bennett and Wiltjer in their depth chart. I know Bennett is likely a one-and-doner anyway, but just a thought.

Yeah, Bennett is the key in whether or not Kentucky has any meaningful time at PF available for Jefferson next year. If Bennett commits, that leaves the frontcourt very full with Noel, Bennett, Wiltjer, and Cauley there and Poythress at SF. In fact, Kentucky should really be more interested in a guard over all else. They have only two significant players on the roster (Harrow and Goodwin) that can be considered major conference-caliber guards.

ChicagoCrazy84
04-19-2012, 05:51 PM
Yeah, Bennett is the key in whether or not Kentucky has any meaningful time at PF available for Jefferson next year. If Bennett commits, that leaves the frontcourt very full with Noel, Bennett, Wiltjer, and Cauley there and Poythress at SF. In fact, Kentucky should really be more interested in a guard over all else. They have only two significant players on the roster (Harrow and Goodwin) that can be considered major conference-caliber guards.


Yeah, I forgot about Willie Cauley. I'm not sure how going after Amile and Anthony benefits them. I know they are still pursuing Devonta Pollard so that would help, but he's more of a swingman as well. Interesting to see how it plays out for them. One thing is for sure, they're going to have a gooood frontcourt.

-bdbd
04-19-2012, 11:32 PM
Yeah that is pretty much my point. Maybe it is subconscious like if a recruit gets upgraded when he is recruited by or signs with a powerhouse program

Yeah, happens all the time. Not just at Duke, but kids who commit to schools like KY, Kerlina, Kansas as well, they suddenly, magically seem to start rising up the recruiting lists. Conversely, a kid who is relatively highly ranked but who signs with a lower-perceived program, tends to slip in the rankings. A certain (formerly) #2 ranked Center out of IN/VT this year, eschewed Duke and some other biggies to sign with Mich, and he immediately started falling (though in his case he apparently also had some bad performances to help that fall along). Recruiting evaluations are a very inexact "science," so human nature says evaluators are bound to hedge some and be influenced in ranking kids by WHO IS RECRUITING and ultimately SIGNING him... Not a big deal, but it doers make the arguments about recruits here (and elsewhere) not "living up to their rankings" somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy, unfairly.

With the news this week about Silent-G and about Dre both gone for next season on the Wing, I would think that all of this might play well to our AJ recruitment. I really hate to hear about both guys not being around, but do think that the "silver lining" might be an improved shot at AJ (given the sudden availability of Wing time here).


:confused:

tommy
04-19-2012, 11:40 PM
With the news this week about Silent-G and about Dre both gone for next season on the Wing, I would think that all of this might play well to our AJ recruitment. I really hate to hear about both guys not being around, but do think that the "silver lining" might be an improved shot at AJ (given the sudden availability of Wing time here).


:confused:

Maybe, but who's to say that Jefferson is going to be any more ready to play in Duke's system than Gbinije was last year? Jefferson is skinny, he's not particularly polished offensively, and while he's a good athlete, that obviously wasn't enough to get Mike G on the floor last year. The loss of Gbinije may turn out to be essentially the loss of the year of maturity and physical development of a guy at that 3, or 3/4 position, so that in a sense we have to start over now with Jefferson, if we get him.

-bdbd
04-20-2012, 12:25 AM
Maybe, but who's to say that Jefferson is going to be any more ready to play in Duke's system than Gbinije was last year? Jefferson is skinny, he's not particularly polished offensively, and while he's a good athlete, that obviously wasn't enough to get Mike G on the floor last year. The loss of Gbinije may turn out to be essentially the loss of the year of maturity and physical development of a guy at that 3, or 3/4 position, so that in a sense we have to start over now with Jefferson, if we get him.

'understand the (legit) point Tommy. But AJ does have a bit more size than Mike G does, and that almost HAS to help on the D end of the court. Also, I've not heard that AJ is a poor defender (have you?). Honest question.

But my point had less to do with the reality on the floor in 6 months and more to do with the situation as perceived in the mind of a talented 17-year-old high schooler from PA over the next couple weeks of his recruitment. And since he supposedly delayed his decision in order to get a better handle on where the playing time would be after all of the NBA and transfer dust cleared, then these changes would seem to argue favorably to that end -- IF that was truly the reason for the delay...

:confused:

tommy
04-20-2012, 12:52 AM
'understand the (legit) point Tommy. But AJ does have a bit more size than Mike G does, and that almost HAS to help on the D end of the court. Also, I've not heard that AJ is a poor defender (have you?). Honest question.

But my point had less to do with the reality on the floor in 6 months and more to do with the situation as perceived in the mind of a talented 17-year-old high schooler from PA over the next couple weeks of his recruitment. And since he supposedly delayed his decision in order to get a better handle on where the playing time would be after all of the NBA and transfer dust cleared, then these changes would seem to argue favorably to that end -- IF that was truly the reason for the delay...

:confused:

Completely agree with you on your second paragraph. Gbinije was thought to be a major competitor for minutes at the 3, which despite the protestations of some, I believe is going to be his natural position. Ryan Kelly is going to take the lion's share -- the low to mid 30's I suspect -- of the minutes at the 4 anyway, so the 3 position is where Amile would have some daylight next year.

As to your first paragraph, no, I haven't heard that Amile is a poor defender at all. But I hadn't heard that about Mike either, and he did not perform well defensively in games, albeit in limited minutes.

MCFinARL
04-20-2012, 08:45 AM
So is there any word about when Amile will make his decision. I have seen unsubstantiated tweets that he would announce today but I'm not aware of any official statements on that.

CDu
04-20-2012, 08:51 AM
'understand the (legit) point Tommy. But AJ does have a bit more size than Mike G does, and that almost HAS to help on the D end of the court. Also, I've not heard that AJ is a poor defender (have you?). Honest question.

But my point had less to do with the reality on the floor in 6 months and more to do with the situation as perceived in the mind of a talented 17-year-old high schooler from PA over the next couple weeks of his recruitment. And since he supposedly delayed his decision in order to get a better handle on where the playing time would be after all of the NBA and transfer dust cleared, then these changes would seem to argue favorably to that end -- IF that was truly the reason for the delay...

:confused:

I think the bolded text is debatable on a couple of fronts:

1. Jefferson doesn't really have more size than Gbinije. Jefferson is 6'7", 190 lbs (per ESPN). Gbinije is 6'7", 205 (per ESPN). At the very most, I'd say Jefferson might be an inch taller. But Gbinije is definitely bigger and stronger.

2. Even if Jefferson does have a bit more size, I don't think that's evidence that it will help at the defensive end. Jefferson is a PF in a SF body. So if we're discussing his ability to play the SF spot, the questions are going to be whether he can defend quicker players on the perimeter - not whether he's big enough. I don't know whether or not he'll have the quickness to handle the SF position defensively, but I don't think size was an issue for him (or Gbinije) at the SF spot.

Your second point is accurate IF Jefferson sees himself as a SF and not the PF that he's played in high school. If that's the case, then the Gbinije transfer and apparent news regarding a possible redshirt for Dawkins would certainly open up playing time at SF (since we now have only one of those on the roster, and he's never played an official game at Duke).

dukedoc
04-20-2012, 09:46 AM
So is there any word about when Amile will make his decision. I have seen unsubstantiated tweets that he would announce today but I'm not aware of any official statements on that.

Per Airowe

Adam Rowe @DukeHoopBlog

@YieldToFrump @DukeReport @TobaccoRdBlues I have not been able to confirm Amile Jefferson is making an announcement today with anyone.

dukedoc
04-20-2012, 10:38 AM
Makes sense for Amile to wait until after Tony announces I suppose.

Clint Jackson ‏ @clintjackson1
No Amile Jefferson announcement this week. Maybe next week. Twittering from my car -- this is dangerous.

CDu
04-20-2012, 10:44 AM
Makes sense for Amile to wait until after Tony announces I suppose.

Clint Jackson ‏ @clintjackson1
No Amile Jefferson announcement this week. Maybe next week. Twittering from my car -- this is dangerous.

I still don't think Parker's decision affects Jefferson's decision. The two play different positions entirely. Parker will not play at PF, nor will Mason. Jefferson would be competing with Hairston for the backup PF minutes and would likely be asked to play SF (if Dawkins redshirts).

I would think that the decision of Anthony Bennett and Devonta Pollard (who would eliminate the available minutes at Kentucky) are the more relevant decisions.

superdave
04-20-2012, 10:48 AM
I still don't think Parker's decision affects Jefferson's decision. The two play different positions entirely. Parker will not play at PF, nor will Mason. Jefferson would be competing with Hairston for the backup PF minutes and would likely be asked to play SF (if Dawkins redshirts).

I would think that the decision of Anthony Bennett and Devonta Pollard (who would eliminate the available minutes at Kentucky) are the more relevant decisions.

But there's only 80 total minutes at the 4-5 positions, and that is where Amile will most likely be fighting for playing time. A four-man rotation at the 4-5 spots is more appealing to Amile than a five-man rotation there that includes Parker.

dukedoc
04-20-2012, 10:50 AM
I still don't think Parker's decision affects Jefferson's decision. The two play different positions entirely. Parker will not play at PF, nor will Mason. Jefferson would be competing with Hairston for the backup PF minutes and would likely be asked to play SF (if Dawkins redshirts).

I would think that the decision of Anthony Bennett and Devonta Pollard (who would eliminate the available minutes at Kentucky) are the more relevant decisions.

Perhaps he wants to play with TP. Perhaps TP coming to Durham would otherwise clarify how Duke might use Amile, etc. I agree that there isn't an obvious linkage between TP's decision and Amile's overall, but if I were Amile and another domino was going to fall Monday, why not wait until the new week and a fresh media cycle to announce.

COYS
04-20-2012, 10:56 AM
But there's only 80 total minutes at the 4-5 positions, and that is where Amile will most likely be fighting for playing time. A four-man rotation at the 4-5 spots is more appealing to Amile than a five-man rotation there that includes Parker.

True, but in either situation he's looking at getting major minutes in 13-14, anyway, not this upcoming season. Mason and Ryan are gone next year no matter what. There will be playing time available if he can earn it. Meanwhile at UK there's no doubt that Cal will be going after a number of 1 and done recruits for the following season. It's true that Duke could land a stud post player, as well, but I'd say the odds are against Duke landing as many 1 and dones in the post over the next few years as UK. Amile will compete with Josh at the PF spot and can easily share the court with Alex as having both of them on at the same time would give Duke a similar versatility to the Kyle/Lance pairing at SF and PF, regardless of what happens with TP. I see neirther Duke nor UK giving Amile guaranteed playing time right over the next couple years, but I definitely don't think that Duke's situation is any worse than UK's. In fact, given Cal's track record of bringing in 4-5 stud frosh at once, Duke's situation might even be better.

CDu
04-20-2012, 10:57 AM
But there's only 80 total minutes at the 4-5 positions, and that is where Amile will most likely be fighting for playing time. A four-man rotation at the 4-5 spots is more appealing to Amile than a five-man rotation there that includes Parker.

I think you're looking at the wrong 80-minute allotment, though. Jefferson is looking at minutes the 4 or 3 position, not the 4-5. Parker will be looking for minutes at the 5. The two do not overlap. We have 3 guys at the 3 and 4 position (Kelly, Hairston, Murphy) and 2 guys at the 5 position (the Plumlees). Parker's decision would affect Marshall, but would not affect the minutes available at the 4 spot (because neither Plumlee was going to play PF next year). So Parker's decision does not affect Jefferson.

Conversely, there are 80 minutes at the 3 and 4 spots. Kentucky currently has 2 guys playing those spots, and both would likely play ahead of Jefferson. But there would (currently) be plenty of minutes available for him there. But they are recruiting another PF (Bennett) and SG/SF (Pollard) who would play ahead of Jefferson. By comparison, we have only 3 guys at the 3/4 spots, and it's possible that Jefferson could beat out Murphy or Hairston for minutes. As such, it would seem that the decisions most relevant to Jefferson are those of Bennett and Pollard - not Parker.

CDu
04-20-2012, 10:58 AM
Perhaps he wants to play with TP. Perhaps TP coming to Durham would otherwise clarify how Duke might use Amile, etc. I agree that there isn't an obvious linkage between TP's decision and Amile's overall, but if I were Amile and another domino was going to fall Monday, why not wait until the new week and a fresh media cycle to announce.

I totally agree that it makes sense to wait for more dominoes to fall. I just think those dominoes are more likely to be Bennett and Pollard than Parker.

dukedoc
04-20-2012, 11:04 AM
I totally agree that it makes sense to wait for more dominoes to fall. I just think those dominoes are more likely to be Bennett and Pollard than Parker.

Well, given Bennett's snail's pace, we may be waiting quite a bit longer. Alas...

roywhite
04-20-2012, 11:06 AM
Well, given Bennett's snail's pace, we may be waiting quite a bit longer. Alas...

Lance Thomas didn't decide until May; I guess this is not new.

ChicagoCrazy84
04-20-2012, 11:10 AM
Lance Thomas didn't decide until May; I guess this is not new.


It's almost May...

I don't think we here a decision from Bennett or Pollard in the next month, that's just my guess.

superdave
04-20-2012, 11:25 AM
I think you're looking at the wrong 80-minute allotment, though. Jefferson is looking at minutes the 4 or 3 position, not the 4-5. Parker will be looking for minutes at the 5. The two do not overlap. We have 3 guys at the 3 and 4 position (Kelly, Hairston, Murphy) and 2 guys at the 5 position (the Plumlees). Parker's decision would affect Marshall, but would not affect the minutes available at the 4 spot (because neither Plumlee was going to play PF next year). So Parker's decision does not affect Jefferson.

Conversely, there are 80 minutes at the 3 and 4 spots. Kentucky currently has 2 guys playing those spots, and both would likely play ahead of Jefferson. But there would (currently) be plenty of minutes available for him there. But they are recruiting another PF (Bennett) and SG/SF (Pollard) who would play ahead of Jefferson. By comparison, we have only 3 guys at the 3/4 spots, and it's possible that Jefferson could beat out Murphy or Hairston for minutes. As such, it would seem that the decisions most relevant to Jefferson are those of Bennett and Pollard - not Parker.

If Mason were to play alongside Parker, then Mason would cut into the minutes at the 4.

The point that Amile would get big minutes in the 2013-2014 season is true. Ryan and Mason will be leaving and that's about 60 minutes per game opening up. This coming season may be tight though.

Dev11
04-20-2012, 11:38 AM
Lance Thomas didn't decide until May; I guess this is not new.

As I said previously in this thread, I know plenty of kids who didn't make college choices until May or June or even July of senior year. It happens. In fact, as of April 20, I'd say the majority of college-bound kids still aren't sure where they are going (conjecture without facts, very effective).

CDu
04-20-2012, 11:46 AM
If Mason were to play alongside Parker, then Mason would cut into the minutes at the 4.

The point that Amile would get big minutes in the 2013-2014 season is true. Ryan and Mason will be leaving and that's about 60 minutes per game opening up. This coming season may be tight though.

I don't think that Mason would play alongside Parker, so I don't see him cutting into minutes at PF. That'd be a really bad defensive pairing (Mason is good at defending C, not so much against PF, and Parker is going to be a defensive liability). So as of now, I'd say Jefferson would have the opportunity to get up to 15-20 mpg at SF (depending upon Dawkins' situation) and up to 10-15 mpg at PF. Now I doubt he'll be nearly ready for that many minutes, but those minutes are potentially available.

I agree that he's going to have a challenge finding minutes next year. But I doubt he'd play more than 10-15 mpg at any major school next year (based on his frame and style of play). But I don't see Parker's decision affecting his available minutes very much. Not nearly as much as Bennett's and Pollard's decisions would.

MCFinARL
04-20-2012, 11:53 AM
As I said previously in this thread, I know plenty of kids who didn't make college choices until May or June or even July of senior year. It happens. In fact, as of April 20, I'd say the majority of college-bound kids still aren't sure where they are going (conjecture without facts, very effective).

Good point. IIRC, accepted students usually have until May 1 to send in their deposit at selective colleges, and things can go much longer at less selective schools. It's only in the minds of the thousands of total strangers who are desperate to know what a handful of athletes decide that this seems like an abnormally late time to be choosing a college.

jimsumner
04-20-2012, 11:55 AM
T. Parker and Jefferson overlap?

Let us imagine a scenario in which Duke has Parker but not Jefferson.

Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Parker first big off the bench.

Mason sits, Parker plays the 5. Kelly sits, Parker plays the 5.

Scenario 2. Duke has Jefferson but not Parker.

Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Jefferson first big off the bench.

Mason sits, Kelly moves to the 5, Jefferson plays the 4.

Kelly sits Jefferson plays the 4.

Now, this is an oversimplification. Perhaps Hairston is the first big off the bench. Perhaps Marshall is the back-up 5. Perhaps Dawkins redshirts and Jefferson plays more 3 than originally planned.

But it does show how Jefferson and Parker's decisions could impact each other.

azzefkram
04-20-2012, 12:26 PM
T. Parker and Jefferson overlap?

Let us imagine a scenario in which Duke has Parker but not Jefferson.

Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Parker first big off the bench.

Mason sits, Parker plays the 5. Kelly sits, Parker plays the 5.

Scenario 2. Duke has Jefferson but not Parker.

Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Jefferson first big off the bench.

Mason sits, Kelly moves to the 5, Jefferson plays the 4.

Kelly sits Jefferson plays the 4.

Now, this is an oversimplification. Perhaps Hairston is the first big off the bench. Perhaps Marshall is the back-up 5. Perhaps Dawkins redshirts and Jefferson plays more 3 than originally planned.

But it does show how Jefferson and Parker's decisions could impact each other.

Without seeing MP3, Parker or Jefferson, I would guess that MP3 would be first big off the bench as he has had a year to acclimate to the system.

oldnavy
04-20-2012, 05:50 PM
Without seeing MP3, Parker or Jefferson, I would guess that MP3 would be first big off the bench as he has had a year to acclimate to the system.

Yea, I am kind of confused by the lack of talk about MP3. Are the expectations that even after a year in the system he is not really going to be much of a factor?

CDu
04-20-2012, 06:08 PM
T. Parker and Jefferson overlap?

Let us imagine a scenario in which Duke has Parker but not Jefferson.

Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Parker first big off the bench.

Mason sits, Parker plays the 5. Kelly sits, Parker plays the 5.

Scenario 2. Duke has Jefferson but not Parker.

Mason starts at the 5, Kelly at the 4. Jefferson first big off the bench.

Mason sits, Kelly moves to the 5, Jefferson plays the 4.

Kelly sits Jefferson plays the 4.

Now, this is an oversimplification. Perhaps Hairston is the first big off the bench. Perhaps Marshall is the back-up 5. Perhaps Dawkins redshirts and Jefferson plays more 3 than originally planned.

But it does show how Jefferson and Parker's decisions could impact each other.

And as I mentioned elsewhere, I don't think that Parker and Mason sharing the floor is a good defensive alignment. As such, I don't think we'd see much of those two together. So scenario 1 would instead be Mason+Kelly, then Parker+Kelly, then Mason+Hairston, and so on, with Hairston subbing for Kelly at the 4 and Parker subbing for Mason at the 5. There may be a couple of minutes per game where we go to such a lineup, but I don't think it would be used often at all.

That's why I said I don't see them overlapping significantly enough for Parker's decision to really impact Jefferson's minutes. Not nearly as much as the decisions of Bennett and Pollard. I think Parker's decision might impact Marshall's playing time, but not so much Jefferson.

jimsumner
04-20-2012, 06:29 PM
And as I mentioned elsewhere, I don't think that Parker and Mason sharing the floor is a good defensive alignment. As such, I don't think we'd see much of those two together. So scenario 1 would instead be Mason+Kelly, then Parker+Kelly, then Mason+Hairston, and so on, with Hairston subbing for Kelly at the 4 and Parker subbing for Mason at the 5. There may be a couple of minutes per game where we go to such a lineup, but I don't think it would be used often at all.

That's why I said I don't see them overlapping significantly enough for Parker's decision to really impact Jefferson's minutes. Not nearly as much as the decisions of Bennett and Pollard. I think Parker's decision might impact Marshall's playing time, but not so much Jefferson.

We'll have to agree to disagree then. I can very much see Mason Plumlee and Tony Parker sharing the floor.

Assuming Marshall Plumlee gets some burn and assuming that Mason Plumlee plays somewhere in the 28-32 mpg range, your scenario seems to limit Tony Parker to about 5-7 mpg.

But the key question here isn't what we think. It's what Tony Parker and Amile Jefferson think. Do they see themselves as mutually exclusive?

I do think the possible absence of Dawkins from next year's team does change the equation. Alex Murphy is not going to play 40 minutes and I'd rather see Jefferson guard ACC wings than see Hairston guard ACC wings. I'm not sure Jefferson has the skill set at present to thrive on the perimeter on offense but he should be able to guard them.

dcar1985
04-20-2012, 07:10 PM
I know Tony is a banger and wide-bodied but he measured in a 6'7 at the Nike Hoop Summit...I don't know if that's who I want playing the 5 for us, I don't see why he couldn't play next to Mason as our 4

CDu
04-20-2012, 07:12 PM
We'll have to agree to disagree then. I can very much see Mason Plumlee and Tony Parker sharing the floor.

Assuming Marshall Plumlee gets some burn and assuming that Mason Plumlee plays somewhere in the 28-32 mpg range, your scenario seems to limit Tony Parker to about 5-7 mpg.

Yeah, and that's why I don't think we'll be getting Parker. Mason is entrenched as the starting C and will play 28+ mpg. So I think Parker would be competing with Marshall for the other 10-12 mpg. That's probably not what he wants. Of course, we'll see how it plays out.


But the key question here isn't what we think. It's what Tony Parker and Amile Jefferson think. Do they see themselves as mutually exclusive?

I do think the possible absence of Dawkins from next year's team does change the equation. Alex Murphy is not going to play 40 minutes and I'd rather see Jefferson guard ACC wings than see Hairston guard ACC wings. I'm not sure Jefferson has the skill set at present to thrive on the perimeter on offense but he should be able to guard them.

I agree wholeheartedly with this. It's not a great fit for Jefferson at the 3, but someone's going to have to do it and I don't want it to be Hairston or Sulaimon. Might as well be Jefferson.

CDu
04-20-2012, 07:13 PM
I know Tony is a banger and wide-bodied but he measured in a 6'7 at the Nike Hoop Summit...I don't know if that's who I want playing the 5 for us, I don't see why he couldn't play next to Mason as our 4

Because he's S-L-O-W. He'd get torched by opposing college PF.

dcar1985
04-20-2012, 07:25 PM
Because he's S-L-O-W. He'd get torched by opposing college PF.

And Ryan is....?!? I haven't seen enough of Tony to say how quick or slow he is laterally, how defends of the hedge etc...maybe you have, but I just don't see him from what I have seen being a HUGE mismatch defensively if played at the 4...

If he's slow, undersized, doesn't seem to have much of an outside game at this point, whats all the fuss about? lol

CDu
04-20-2012, 07:30 PM
And Ryan is....?!? I haven't seen enough of Tony to say how quick or slow he is laterally, how defends of the hedge etc...maybe you have, but I just don't see him from what I have seen being a HUGE mismatch defensively if played at the 4...

If he's slow, undersized, doesn't seem to have much of an outside game at this point, whats all the fuss about? lo

Kelly is quicker, and much taller/longer. And even he's probably too slow/not-quick to play great defense at PF. Parker is less quick than Kelly.

I agree with your last sentence. Several of us have been in the camp that he's probably not an immediate impact kind of player. In fact, several felt he wasn't really a guy we should expect more than ~15mpg quality minutes next year, even without Mason. I think some folks saw him as the next Elton Brand, but he's far far from that. He's definitely talented in the post, but he plays below the rim and he's slow.

gumbomoop
04-20-2012, 07:50 PM
Yea, I am kind of confused by the lack of talk about MP3. Are the expectations that even after a year in the system he is not really going to be much of a factor?

I agree with you that Marshall hasn't yet grabbed much talk on EK. I assume that once Mason returned, and because we're still waiting to hear from Parker and Jefferson, Marshall slides ever further from view.

Moreover, whereas it's commonly assumed, if unspoken, that Alex could have played some this season, it's also assumed [I think] that Marshall wasn't quite ready. There's no thread entitled, "Was redshirting Marshall Plumlee the right choice?"

I infer from the very fact that you dare even to mention Marshall that you think it's unwise to ignore his talent. Anyway, I think it's shortsighted to ignore him. Tony will be "competing" with Marshall and Josh for PT. From what I've seen, Tony is smoother than Marshall on O, but Marshall is the better, and more enthusiastic, defender. And Marshall will jaw at opponents more than occasionally, though not, I take it, as much as he will irritate Mason in practice. I feared that Mason would not come back, knowing he'd have to put it with Marshall's barbs for another year.

Thread relevance: I like Amile a whole lot. He's different, good different, different different.

azzefkram
04-20-2012, 08:37 PM
Moreover, whereas it's commonly assumed, if unspoken, that Alex could have played some this season, it's also assumed [I think] that Marshall wasn't quite ready. There's no thread entitled, "Was redshirting Marshall Plumlee the right choice?".

while I agree that marshall probably wasn't ready, part of the reason there was no above mentioned thread was it made sense to redshirt mp3 given mp1, mp2, and Ryan commanding a majority of the minutes

jimsumner
04-20-2012, 09:29 PM
Because he's S-L-O-W. He'd get torched by opposing college PF.

But he wouldn't have to play PF. When he and Mason are on the court, Parker plays the 5, Mason the 4. When he and Kelly are on the floor, Parker plays the 5, Kelly plays the 4. When he and Hairston are on the floor, Parker plays the 5, Hairston plays the 4.

That way, he gets 15-20 minutes per game. Mason played the 4 whenever he and Miles were on the floor, the 5 when he and Kelly were on the floor. Not re-inventing the wheel here, folks. Just plug Parker in for Miles.