New 2012 Recruiting Thread

[Newton_14]

Please keep this thread on topic. 2012 recruiting only. Off topic posts will draw infractions and be deleted.

[Gthoma2a]

Any of the three set dates to commit yet? I seem to remember Tony is unlikely to be us, Shabazz could be and Amile was more likely. Is that still about right?

[Newton_14]

Any of the three set dates to commit yet? I seem to remember Tony is unlikely to be us, Shabazz could be and Amile was more likely. Is that still about right?

Amile just delayed again, and Shabazz is going to wait until he sees who declares for the draft and who doesn't. Who knows with Parker? None of the 3 have current target dates (specific date) for committing.

[Gthoma2a]

Amile just delayed again, and Shabazz is going to wait until he sees who declares for the draft and who doesn't. Who knows with Parker? None of the 3 have current target dates (specific date) for committing.

Awesome. I guess I wouldn't want to come here until I knew if I was an NBA quality SG that was going to be competing with an already established NBA quality SG that has been huge for the program so far. Parker was so promising at first, but he is still the guy I think could contribute the most (due to what we are lacking/losing). His recent apathy is disheartening. I don't know much about Amile, but what I have seen of him makes me think he is a thin wing player with skill, but a body that may need to develop. I think we have guys with that role already, though. Alex could do what he does and Gbinije has the skills, but needs more confidence. It seems the least likely is the one I want to get the most...

[dukedoc]

The somewhat odd thing about Amile's recruitment recently (although it certainly doesn't approach the cumulative "oddness" of TP's recruitment) is that we've gone through multiple rounds of "the decision is on the brink". Most recently his Dad indicated that he would decide between last Friday and yesterday - i.e. pretty specific.

He hasn't announced so one needs to wonder if something has changed or come up recently. I presume that his father wouldn't put a clear timeline on the announcement unless they were pretty darn certain which way they were headed with this. The only things I've heard of that have happened recently are a visit back to Temple to tour their facilities, the recent performances of Duke and NCSU in the ACCT, and NCSU's inclusion in the tourney. I have a hard time believing that any of those things would be very impactful on his decision though.

[Class of '94]

The somewhat odd thing about Amile's recruitment recently (although it certainly doesn't approach the cumulative "oddness" of TP's recruitment) is that we've gone through multiple rounds of "the decision is on the brink". Most recently his Dad indicated that he would decide between last Friday and yesterday - i.e. pretty specific.

He hasn't announced so one needs to wonder if something has changed or come up recently. I presume that his father wouldn't put a clear timeline on the announcement unless they were pretty darn certain which way they were headed with this. The only things I've heard of that have happened recently are a visit back to Temple to tour their facilities, the recent performances of Duke and NCSU in the ACCT, and NCSU's inclusion in the tourney. I have a hard time believing that any of those things would be very impactful on his decision though.

Maybe the inclusion of Temple back into the Big East has given him second thoughts? I know the BE is still changing and could be in jeopardy of blowing up; but as of right now, with the inclusion of Memphos and Temple, the BE is still a pretty impressive basketball league even with Syracuse and Pitt leaving. And who knows, maybe NC State is giving one final push to say "here look at us, we made it to the tournament this year and we're going to be better next year. And depending on what Leslie does, you can help up us contend for the ACC and NC next year".

[dukedoc]

Well, if we have a new 2012 thread, we should include a virtual shout-out to Mr. Sulaimon. Very excited about this young man. So charismatic and well-spoken. I love how he talks about his uber-competitiveness and defensive mindset in this little interview from last fall. Can't wait to see him suit up! Draftexpress Interview (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M0c1EvdG88)

[enick66]

According to this article, Shabazz to sign LOI on April 11 and visit UCLA around April 2 - http://coast2coastrecruiting.net/2012/03/13/shabazz-muhammad-happy-with-howland-staying-at-ucla/

[tommy]

First of all, thanks to Newton 14 for forcing everybody to get back on the subject of the thread. I wish the mods would do that more in other threads too. The boards would be the better for it.

In any event, from the Department of "Trying to Read Something Significant into an Almost Assuredly Innocuous Comment," Shabazz Muhammad, upon winning the Morgan Wooten National Player of the Year Award, stated, "When you look at the long list of guys who’ve been honored with this award – LeBron James, Dwight Howard,
Shane Battier – it’s nice to know I’m at a similar phase in my basketball career and I hope to continue with that
success."

Hopefully there's some significance to his mentioning Shane, who won the award what, maybe 14-15 years ago, when there's any number of more recent winners he could've mentioned in addition to James and Howard.

I know, means nothing. Still.

[jennja01]

According to this article, Shabazz to sign LOI on April 11 and visit UCLA around April 2 - http://coast2coastrecruiting.net/2012/03/13/shabazz-muhammad-happy-with-howland-staying-at-ucla/

Pretty interesting. I think it was reported in the old thread that UCLA had lost significant ground in his recruitment, but now it appears they are still in it and may be among his leaders just based on the quotes from his father. Seems to me his father is very involved in his recruitment. Personally, I think the decision should be the player's decision and his alone, but thats just me. I think parents and "handlers" that get too involved can cause recruits to make bad decisions.

Hopefully Shabazz makes the right choice for him and that choice ends up being Duke. He had some really positive things to say about Duke after his official, but something about his recruitment has always led me to believe he'll either be in a Kentucky jersey or a UCLA jersey. Guess we'll see in about 1 month.

[UrinalCake]

According to this link (http://basketball.about.com/od/nbadraft/a/nbadraftkeydates.htm), here are the important deadlines relevant to the draft:

April 11-14 Portsmouth Invitational Tournament pre-draft camp
April 29 Deadline for early entries to declare themselves eligible for the draft.
May 8 Deadline for NCAA players declaring early to withdraw from the draft.
May (Date TBD) NBA Draft Lottery held
May (Date TBD) NBA Draft Combine held in Chicago.
June 28 2012 NBA Draft held at the Prudential Center.

So if player X is waiting to hear for sure who is staying and leaving before making a commitment, he'd have to wait until after May 8. Is it just me or is that insanely late for a player to decide? Most of these guys will attend summer sessions at the school in which the enroll (at least at Duke most of the guys do that) and I would think that those classes would start right around the same time.

[COYS]

According to this link (http://basketball.about.com/od/nbadraft/a/nbadraftkeydates.htm), here are the important deadlines relevant to the draft:

April 11-14 Portsmouth Invitational Tournament pre-draft camp
April 29 Deadline for early entries to declare themselves eligible for the draft.
May 8 Deadline for NCAA players declaring early to withdraw from the draft.
May (Date TBD) NBA Draft Lottery held
May (Date TBD) NBA Draft Combine held in Chicago.
June 28 2012 NBA Draft held at the Prudential Center.

So if player X is waiting to hear for sure who is staying and leaving before making a commitment, he'd have to wait until after May 8. Is it just me or is that insanely late for a player to decide? Most of these guys will attend summer sessions at the school in which the enroll (at least at Duke most of the guys do that) and I would think that those classes would start right around the same time.

I would imagine that of the schools Shabazz is looking at, the withdrawal deadline will be irrelevant. No one from Duke has ever "tested the waters" and not signed with an agent. K, the rest of the staff, and K's diverse NBA contacts can provide plenty of info on how a player is perceived by NBA scouts. If Austin and Mason declare, they are gone. Similarly, if Michael Kidd-Gilchrist from UK declares, he's going to be a top 10 and potentially top 5 pick. He won't be testing. At both UNLV and UCLA, early departures are completely irrelevant as there's no one on those teams who will be back next year to take shots away from Shabazz. Who knows if he'll actually sign on April 11, but I would imagine that he would likely already have a good picture of who is coming back and who is leaving.

[tommy]

I would imagine that of the schools Shabazz is looking at, the withdrawal deadline will be irrelevant. No one from Duke has ever "tested the waters" and not signed with an agent. K, the rest of the staff, and K's diverse NBA contacts can provide plenty of info on how a player is perceived by NBA scouts. If Austin and Mason declare, they are gone. Similarly, if Michael Kidd-Gilchrist from UK declares, he's going to be a top 10 and potentially top 5 pick. He won't be testing. At both UNLV and UCLA, early departures are completely irrelevant as there's no one on those teams who will be back next year to take shots away from Shabazz. Who knows if he'll actually sign on April 11, but I would imagine that he would likely already have a good picture of who is coming back and who is leaving.

Yeah, but Cake makes a good point. Even if you look at the date that college kids have to declare -- not withdraw, but declare in the first place -- even that date is several weeks after Bazz's father is indicating he's going to commit. I would think it's unlikely that everyone at places like Kentucky and Duke would have made their intention even to declare known by April 11.

[MCFinARL]

Yeah, but Cake makes a good point. Even if you look at the date that college kids have to declare -- not withdraw, but declare in the first place -- even that date is several weeks after Bazz's father is indicating he's going to commit. I would think it's unlikely that everyone at places like Kentucky and Duke would have made their intention even to declare known by April 11.

I agree--and I think it is worth noting that the coast2coastrecruiting source linked above is actually misreading the LA Times in reporting that Shabazz Muhammad will sign on April 11. The original LA Times story, linked on the DBR homepage, says "Muhammad is expected to make an official visit to UCLA early in April and sign with a school as soon as April 11, the first day of the spring signing period." [Boldface added by me] http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-0314-ben-howland-ucla-20120314,0,5771706.story

With the inclusion of "as soon as," all that really says is that he is not expected to sign before that date--which he can't in any case. To rely on this article to claim that he will sign on April 11 is very poor reporting by the coast2coastrecruiting website.

[COYS]

Yeah, but Cake makes a good point. Even if you look at the date that college kids have to declare -- not withdraw, but declare in the first place -- even that date is several weeks after Bazz's father is indicating he's going to commit. I would think it's unlikely that everyone at places like Kentucky and Duke would have made their intention even to declare known by April 11.

You make a good point. But if you recall, Calipari let Patrick Patterson's decision "slip" soon after the Championship game to help with his lining up recruits for the next season. In fact, I think all 5 UK players declared by April 9th (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2010/news/story?id=5064967) that year. Gerald didn't declare until much later in April, however the writing had been on the wall about his leaving for quite some time. It does seem somewhat strange for him to set April 11th as his LOI date, however. If you wait that long, why not wait just a bit longer to make sure you know exactly who is leaving for the NBA and who is staying?

[MCFinARL]

You make a good point. But if you recall, Calipari let Patrick Patterson's decision "slip" soon after the Championship game to help with his lining up recruits for the next season. In fact, I think all 5 UK players declared by April 9th (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2010/news/story?id=5064967) that year. Gerald didn't declare until much later in April, however the writing had been on the wall about his leaving for quite some time. It does seem somewhat strange for him to set April 11th as his LOI date, however. If you wait that long, why not wait just a bit longer to make sure you know exactly who is leaving for the NBA and who is staying?

Yes, it does, and as I noted in my last post, there is, as far as I can tell, NO CREDIBLE EVIDENCE that Shabazz Muhammad has, in fact, set April 11th as his LOI date. The report noted in this thread was based on a misreading of a very noncommittal statement in an LA Times article.

[COYS]

Yes, it does, and as I noted in my last post, there is, as far as I can tell, NO CREDIBLE EVIDENCE that Shabazz Muhammad has, in fact, set April 11th as his LOI date. The report noted in this thread was based on a misreading of a very noncommittal statement in an LA Times article.

My apologies for perpetuating it. I misread the original.

[Duke of Nashville]

Can anyone provide the Olympic schedule for USA basketball this summer? When will practices start and how will this play into the pending recruit's intensions? Just how I am thinking if we do not sign anyone else in this class we will be ok. However, we would have to have a heavier recruiting class for '13. From what I understand the coaches were recruiting pretty hard this past year for 2013.

[tommy]

I agree--and I think it is worth noting that the coast2coastrecruiting source linked above is actually misreading the LA Times in reporting that Shabazz Muhammad will sign on April 11. The original LA Times story, linked on the DBR homepage, says "Muhammad is expected to make an official visit to UCLA early in April and sign with a school as soon as April 11, the first day of the spring signing period." [Boldface added by me] http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-0314-ben-howland-ucla-20120314,0,5771706.story

With the inclusion of "as soon as," all that really says is that he is not expected to sign before that date--which he can't in any case. To rely on this article to claim that he will sign on April 11 is very poor reporting by the coast2coastrecruiting website.

You're right. I read the LAT article today.

I'm also reading something other than "Shabazz and his dad are all good with UCLA and Howland, post-SI and post-this awful year" that some are interpreting from his dad's words. His father basically says "we're happy for Coach Howland. We're happy for them (UCLA)." Not anything like "we're happy UCLA has decided to keep this excellent coach who we feel a strong connection with and therefore we continue to strongly consider UCLA as a destination for Shabazz." It's more like "they can do what they want. Good for them, but I'm not saying it's gonna make it OK for us."

[McDuke]

My gut says I really think Duke only gets the one recruit they already have. I really hope I'm wrong. Seems to me the best recruits Duke could have for 2012-13 are that Mason and Austin look in the mirror and see they could both use another year of playing in college. Mason could have left twice already, and while he has shown improvement this season, his ability to dominate in the paint is still second rate. Austin has shown a lot of improvement over this season but could still use some tweaking. Maybe Austin stays and gets Bazz to come join in! It goes with out saying that Duke could really use a wing of his size and skill level. Let's just hope there is merit in this:

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/219321/Rivers_Recruiting_Muhammad_To_Play_At_Duke

Another concern is if Duke only has one scholarship available at this time and no one leaves, does it come down to who commits first?

[MCFinARL]

My apologies for perpetuating it. I misread the original.
No apologies necessary, unless you wrote the blog post on C2Crecruiting, and even then, really, no apologies necessary. Sorry about the flaming all caps--I guess I am a little cranky today. :)


You're right. I read the LAT article today.

I'm also reading something other than "Shabazz and his dad are all good with UCLA and Howland, post-SI and post-this awful year" that some are interpreting from his dad's words. His father basically says "we're happy for Coach Howland. We're happy for them (UCLA)." Not anything like "we're happy UCLA has decided to keep this excellent coach who we feel a strong connection with and therefore we continue to strongly consider UCLA as a destination for Shabazz." It's more like "they can do what they want. Good for them, but I'm not saying it's gonna make it OK for us."

I agree--there is nothing in this article that offers any new information on where Shabazz will go to college--though the reporter--and even more, the headline writer--tried to make the most of the Shabazz angle to make it seem like a bigger story.

[MCFinARL]

Can anyone provide the Olympic schedule for USA basketball this summer? When will practices start and how will this play into the pending recruit's intensions? Just how I am thinking if we do not sign anyone else in this class we will be ok. However, we would have to have a heavier recruiting class for '13. From what I understand the coaches were recruiting pretty hard this past year for 2013.

USA basketball actually has a pretty good website, where you can follow both the Olympic planning and the various youth teams. According to the site, training begins in Las Vegas July 6; Olympic pool play begins July 29. Not sure when they have to make the final cuts, but the team leaves for England July 17, so it may be around then.

http://www.usabasketball.com/mens/national/12_mnt_july_training.html

Seems like 2012 recruiting decisions should all be made by then. I assume the assistant coaches will keep working on 2013 recruiting as needed in July and August.

[jennja01]

This might be more appropriate in his own thread, but I was wondering if the insiders (Airowe, Watzone, etc) know or have a better idea of where we stand IRT Shabazz? I do my best to follow all recruiting updates made available to the public, but I find you insiders generally have a better feel for the situation than the rest of us. Do you guys know if he's leaning towards a specific school or where Duke stands? Does he have a short list? It seems to me that list would be Kentucky, UCLA, Duke, UNLV, and Kansas, but I'm not certain. Please, if you wouldnt mind, I'd love to hear your perspectives on his recruitment and where you think Duke stands.

I think by now we all know Shabazz intends on being a 1-and-done. It appears he wants to attend a school where he can be an integral part of the team that has a good chance at winning a national championship. It also seems like he is interested in a school where he can get a lot of exposure so that he can build his brand before entering the nba so that he can earn big endorsement contracts before playing his first nba game. Im not really sure if he has specified what kind of system he likes to run, but in terms of Duke, Coach K builds his system based on personnel so i'm not sure that really matters for us.

I feel like, given the things hes looking for mentioned above (and please if I forgot something he said let me know), Duke has to be high on his list. First, I know that we have a decent shot at winning the NCAA's every year, but next year could be a really good year for us, especially if Mason stays. If Mason stays, I think we have a really good shot. If he leaves, our front court is gonna suffer in almost every facet of the post game. We'll lack height, experience, talent (although we dont know how much Marshall brings to the table and we dont really know how much Josh brings to the table but we have a good idea), and depth, which is why I think Mason staying is so important. If he stays, I think it makes Duke an attractive place for Shabazz IRT winning a championship. Second, he has to realize our current team on the court this season lacks a player with his skill set. This Duke team is struggling with some of the taller athletic teams we play against without that prototypical Duke wing: 6'6-6'9 athletic, long, attacks the rim etc. Given his talent, he should be able to come in next year and fill that void extremely well. He will earn enough minutes to make his presence known nationally. I know people on this board like to remind everyone that we have Gbinije and Murphy and that they can play that typical Duke "3", and dont get me wrong, I think both players can and will play that Duke 3 and play it well, but Shabazz seems like one of those elite elite talents that no team can pass up on. (on a side note unrelated, I do share the same concerns as others that if Shabazz commits we might see Silent G on the bench again next year which, given his talent and how highly rated we was coming out of HS, might lead him to transfer, but thats for another thread). Third, if he wants to build his brand and receive national exposure, whats a better place to do that than Duke? almost all our games are nationally televised and we have the most important figure in college hoops as our head coach.

One thing I think might make Shabazz not want to come to Duke is Rivers. If Rivers goes to the nba but isnt projected as a lottery pick, or if he stays, I can see Shabazz questioning whether Duke is right for him. This is not intended to be a knock on Rivers, K, or our program, but a lot of people though Rivers was a guaranteed lotto pick before he put on that Duke jersey, and if he doesn't make it in the lotto, isnt projected to go in the lotto, or returns to school, I can see Shabazz being concerned that Duke might not be the best school to go to if he wants to be a 1-and-done. again thats not a knock on our program, but I could see him thinking, and more importantly, other schools on his list coaches saying "well Duke couldnt make Rivers a lotto pick, but we can make you a lotto pick, so you hsould come here" or somehting along those lines. Just a thought.

Anyway, as i mentioned earlier, if any insiders have a better feel for the whole situation, im sure we would all like to hear it. I just hope Shabazz sees the opportunity he has in front of him at Duke and capitalizes on it.

[COYS]

My gut says I really think Duke only gets the one recruit they already have. I really hope I'm wrong. Seems to me the best recruits Duke could have for 2012-13 are that Mason and Austin look in the mirror and see they could both use another year of playing in college. Mason could have left twice already, and while he has shown improvement this season, his ability to dominate in the paint is still second rate. Austin has shown a lot of improvement over this season but could still use some tweaking. Maybe Austin stays and gets Bazz to come join in! It goes with out saying that Duke could really use a wing of his size and skill level. Let's just hope there is merit in this:

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/219321/Rivers_Recruiting_Muhammad_To_Play_At_Duke

Another concern is if Duke only has one scholarship available at this time and no one leaves, does it come down to who commits first?

I would LOVE Shabazz to come on down to Durham. However, I don't think a 6-6 to 6-8 wing will be a problem for us next season. I fully expect both Mike and Alex to be ready to go next season. If Austin and Mason stay, there would obviously be some tough decisions for the staff to make regarding the rotation. However, despite the fact that Mike hasn't quite been able to crack the rotation this year, I would be surprised if, after an offseason of improving, he's not totally ready to go next season, especially in the event that Mason and Austin depart. If both of those guys depart, I would not be surprised to see Alex and Mike on the court at the same time next season, with Mike getting minutes at the three spot and Alex playing the 4 in the mold of Singler (at times), Deng, Battier, and even Dunleavy for the 2002 season.

[Kedsy]

Yeah, but Cake makes a good point. Even if you look at the date that college kids have to declare -- not withdraw, but declare in the first place -- even that date is several weeks after Bazz's father is indicating he's going to commit. I would think it's unlikely that everyone at places like Kentucky and Duke would have made their intention even to declare known by April 11.

Whether or not the players have publicly made their intentions known, don't you think Coach K could privately tell a recruit, "we expect him to leave," if the player is leaning toward leaving? I'm sure K usually knows whether a player is staying or leaving long before the public announcement, don't you think?

[tommy]

Whether or not the players have publicly made their intentions known, don't you think Coach K could privately tell a recruit, "we expect him to leave," if the player is leaning toward leaving? I'm sure K usually knows whether a player is staying or leaving long before the public announcement, don't you think?

Yes, I do. I think he has a pretty good idea, but I'm sure sometimes kids change their minds too.

On another note, I see that with Mike D'Antoni resigning the Knicks job, the speculation has begun for who will be their next coach. ESPN, which is of uncertain reliability, at best, in these matters, lists Calipari as a strong possibility. If that is correct, query what impact will it have on the recruitment of Shabazz???

[dukedoc]

Yes, I do. I think he has a pretty good idea, but I'm sure sometimes kids change their minds too.

On another note, I see that with Mike D'Antoni resigning the Knicks job, the speculation has begun for who will be their next coach. ESPN, which is of uncertain reliability, at best, in these matters, lists Calipari as a strong possibility. If that is correct, query what impact will it have on the recruitment of Shabazz???


Even if he doesn't leave this time around, the fact that he's always in the discussion as a possible replacement every time a prominent NBA coaching position opens up, has got to make some recruits nervous. You don't have to worry about K. He's already proved his allegiance thoroughly.

[Starter]

Even if he doesn't leave this time around, the fact that he's always in the discussion as a possible replacement every time a prominent NBA coaching position opens up, has got to make some recruits nervous. You don't have to worry about K. He's already proved his allegiance thoroughly.

Well... most of his recruits don't plan on sticking around that long. So if he tells them he's guaranteed to be there another year, that's probably good enough.

That said, if I had to put money on who would be the next Knicks coach, I'd say Calipari given CAA's influence and the probable 6-year, 42 million dollar contract or whatever they'd offer him to do it. It'd be a perfect Knicks move. (Note: I'm a Knicks fan who nonetheless hates the team.) They could also easily keep Woodson since he's a former Isiah college teammate and is as much a puppet as their front office.

With Shabazz, I honestly think Duke is a great fit for what he wants and needs, especially in comparison to UCLA. That doesn't mean he'll come. I thought Shabazz's father's comments about UCLA were about as innocuous as what he says about every school Shabazz has in the mix.

[budwom]

Only Bazz and his family know what he's thinking.

He's sagely waiting until April so he has a solid idea of who's coaching each team, and what their respective rosters will look like.
There are many different possible scenarios....easy to see his point of view.

[Dev11]

(Note: I'm a Knicks fan who nonetheless hates the team.)

That's redundant.

[superdave]

(Note: I'm a Knicks fan who nonetheless hates the team.)

So....do you wanna talk about it? The Knicks were riding so high in February!

Has there been any substantiated rumour about Cal to the NYK's? What about Phil Jackson?

Also, is UK really that strong a contender for Bazz? I thought UCLA and UNLV were stronger this past year.

[dukedoc]

Well... most of his recruits don't plan on sticking around that long. So if he tells them he's guaranteed to be there another year, that's probably good enough.

My point was that K will NEVER be looking at NBA coaching positions. He has made it clear that the Duke head coaching position will be his last. Cal has not credibly made that same promise. No one can predict when a given NBA coaching position will open up, so even if Cal tells a recruit that he'll be around at least for his one and done year, the wise recruit would take that with a huge grain of salt. If something opens up the very next day, Cal may very well be gone.

[Starter]

So....do you wanna talk about it? The Knicks were riding so high in February!

Has there been any substantiated rumour about Cal to the NYK's? What about Phil Jackson?

Also, is UK really that strong a contender for Bazz? I thought UCLA and UNLV were stronger this past year.

Even back in February, I was waiting (http://www.sportsangle.com/2012/02/tempering-my-linsanity/) for the other shoe to drop.

I'm not sure any rumor with the Knicks is ever really substantiated, though I think you'll see me coach the Knicks before you see Phil Jackson work for Dolan coaching this horribly assembled group. I just think Calipari makes sense because it'd be a perfect Knicks move.

From my perspective, I'd characterize UK as a strong contender for anyone until they go somewhere else, or even sometimes after that. (I have no inside info, you'd have to talk to Airowe for that most likely, though I feel like the Muhammad camp has kept it pretty close to the vest.) I think UNLV would probably be the team I'd worry about the most. They're good, getting better and he lives there.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

So if Duke fails to secure commits from Parker, Jefferson, or Shabazz, does anyone think or have knowledge that Duke would target a "PF-C" prospect outside of the top 100? Just wondering what "bigs" were left out there uncommited? I think sometimes the power of a body that gives "5 hard fouls" and clog the lane on defense is underestimated. Thoughts?

[superdave]

So if Duke fails to secure commits from Parker, Jefferson, or Shabazz, does anyone think or have knowledge that Duke would target a "PF-C" prospect outside of the top 100? Just wondering what "bigs" were left out there uncommited? I think sometimes the power of a body that gives "5 hard fouls" and clog the lane on defense is underestimated. Thoughts?

Why use a scholarship on someone unlikely to contribute next year or the year after? I'm assuming no, because we are locked into Class of 2013 targets right now.

We'll have Ryan, Josh, Alex and Marshall to play the 4 and 5. We're in good shape. We could really use Parker's wide stance, but are otherwise going to be alright.

[NSDukeFan]

So if Duke fails to secure commits from Parker, Jefferson, or Shabazz, does anyone think or have knowledge that Duke would target a "PF-C" prospect outside of the top 100? Just wondering what "bigs" were left out there uncommited? I think sometimes the power of a body that gives "5 hard fouls" and clog the lane on defense is underestimated. Thoughts?

I have no inside knowledge, but if no other recruits come, Mason and Rivers both leave, that leaves Duke in a tough situation with "only" 10 recruited players.
Seniors - Seth, Andre, Ryan
Juniors - Josh, Tyler
Sophomores - Cook, Gbinijie
Redshirt Freshmen - Murphy, Marshall P.
Freshman - Sulaimon

I believe all these players will be solid and capable of contributing to a top-10 team nationally and coach K normally doesn't play more than 7 or 8 players in conference play. So, I don't know that a freshman big that is not ranked in the top 100 would be of huge value for the program, unless the staff feel that the player is a worthwhile project and someone that could improve greatly and contribute down the road. Of course, I am not on the coaching staff and expect the roster above is not likely to be the final one.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Why use a scholarship on someone unlikely to contribute next year or the year after? I'm assuming no, because we are locked into Class of 2013 targets right now.

We'll have Ryan, Josh, Alex and Marshall to play the 4 and 5. We're in good shape. We could really use Parker's wide stance, but are otherwise going to be alright.

What is your definition of "contribute" for a PF or C? To me, a Big that can provide some defensive rebounding, altering a few shots, and giving some rest to MP2/3 sure could come in handy next year. I don't think you have to be a top 25 recruit to be able to provide that level of contribution as a freshman. Say 8-10 minutes/ 4-6 boards/ and a put-back or two seems reasonable to me.

I wonder how many of FSU's bigs were top 100 recruits? Not trying to be "snarky", just thinking out loud.

[dcdevil2009]

What is your definition of "contribute" for a PF or C? To me, a Big that can provide some defensive rebounding, altering a few shots, and giving some rest to MP2/3 sure could come in handy next year. I don't think you have to be a top 25 recruit to be able to provide that level of contribution as a freshman. Say 8-10 minutes/ 4-6 boards/ and a put-back or two seems reasonable to me.

I wonder how many of FSU's bigs were top 100 recruits? Not trying to be "snarky", just thinking out loud.

Don't forget the value another big would have in practice. Granted Marshall, Alex, and Seth are/were top-100 level talents, but I find it hard to believe that they didn't contribute almost as much to this year's and the 2010 teams as guys playing 3-4 minutes per game.

[superdave]

What is your definition of "contribute" for a PF or C? To me, a Big that can provide some defensive rebounding, altering a few shots, and giving some rest to MP2/3 sure could come in handy next year. I don't think you have to be a top 25 recruit to be able to provide that level of contribution as a freshman. Say 8-10 minutes/ 4-6 boards/ and a put-back or two seems reasonable to me.

I wonder how many of FSU's bigs were top 100 recruits? Not trying to be "snarky", just thinking out loud.

I dont think Duke goes after another big. A freshman big man not ranked in the top 100 likely would not see the court at all. Marshall was top 100 and he redshirted this year. I think to the extent we changed things up late in the recruiting process this year, it was to go after Amile who is a top 25 guy. If we cannot get Amile or Tony Parker, I'd rather wait for the 2013 kids and not give a scholarship to a kid who is unlikely to play.

If Ryan plays the 5 for 30 minutes a game, and Marshall spells him for 10 minutes. We're good at the 5. If Alex starts at the 4 and splits time with Josh in some way, we're fine at the 4. That's not substantially different from our 4-5 rotation this year, actually.

[pfrduke]

If Ryan plays the 5 for 30 minutes a game, and Marshall spells him for 10 minutes. We're good at the 5. If Alex starts at the 4 and splits time with Josh in some way, we're fine at the 4. That's not substantially different from our 4-5 rotation this year, actually.

Other than that it's a lot shorter. I have to think we're hoping for more than 10 mpg out of Marshall, and that Ryan will split time at the 4 and 5 (and also that Alex will play minutes at the 3).

[Bluedog]

What is your definition of "contribute" for a PF or C? To me, a Big that can provide some defensive rebounding, altering a few shots, and giving some rest to MP2/3 sure could come in handy next year. I don't think you have to be a top 25 recruit to be able to provide that level of contribution as a freshman. Say 8-10 minutes/ 4-6 boards/ and a put-back or two seems reasonable to me.

I wonder how many of FSU's bigs were top 100 recruits? Not trying to be "snarky", just thinking out loud.


I dont think Duke goes after another big. A freshman big man not ranked in the top 100 likely would not see the court at all. Marshall was top 100 and he redshirted this year. I think to the extent we changed things up late in the recruiting process this year, it was to go after Amile who is a top 25 guy. If we cannot get Amile or Tony Parker, I'd rather wait for the 2013 kids and not give a scholarship to a kid who is unlikely to play.

I agree with superdave. Kelly was a top 20 recruit and averaged 1.2 ppg and 1.1 rpg in 6.5 min (which excludes the 5 games he played zero minutes) as a freshman. Big men typically take a bit longer to get up to college speed than guards since in high school their size completely hides other deficiencies in their games. Definitely save the scholarship for the next year; the players we currently have would be sufficient for the 4/5 spots and somebody outside the top 100 would be very unlikely to crack the rotation at all. 4-6 rebounds in 8-10 minutes is asking way too much. Kelly averages 5.4 rebounds THIS YEAR in 26 mpg (3.7 last year).

[jennja01]

I dont think Duke goes after another big. A freshman big man not ranked in the top 100 likely would not see the court at all. Marshall was top 100 and he redshirted this year. I think to the extent we changed things up late in the recruiting process this year, it was to go after Amile who is a top 25 guy. If we cannot get Amile or Tony Parker, I'd rather wait for the 2013 kids and not give a scholarship to a kid who is unlikely to play.

If Ryan plays the 5 for 30 minutes a game, and Marshall spells him for 10 minutes. We're good at the 5. If Alex starts at the 4 and splits time with Josh in some way, we're fine at the 4. That's not substantially different from our 4-5 rotation this year, actually.

Except that, Ryan isnt a 5. In fact, he seen as a stretch 4, meaning a 4 who feels more comfortable on the perimeter. In that sense, im not wild about him playing 30 minutes at an unnatural position, i.e the 5.

The same goes for Alex. Wasn't he recruited as a SF? I guess I could see him playing the stretch 4, but it seems to me kids prefer to play and are better at the position they are recruited for. Hopefully Alex welcomes the challenge of playing the 4 and excels at it until he can return to his more natural position (ala kyle).

Im not saying Duke should use a scholly on a kid who in a normal year wouldnt see the court. I just think that if Duke cant get more than 10 minutes out of Marshall at the 5, we're in trouble. Similarly, I hope Josh is ready to play substantial minutes at the 4 and possibly start, because we're going to need him I think.

[MChambers]

Except that, Ryan isnt a 5. In fact, he seen as a stretch 4, meaning a 4 who feels more comfortable on the perimeter. In that sense, im not wild about him playing 30 minutes at an unnatural position, i.e the 5.

The same goes for Alex. Wasn't he recruited as a SF? I guess I could see him playing the stretch 4, but it seems to me kids prefer to play and are better at the position they are recruited for. Hopefully Alex welcomes the challenge of playing the 4 and excels at it until he can return to his more natural position (ala kyle).

Im not saying Duke should use a scholly on a kid who in a normal year wouldnt see the court. I just think that if Duke cant get more than 10 minutes out of Marshall at the 5, we're in trouble. Similarly, I hope Josh is ready to play substantial minutes at the 4 and possibly start, because we're going to need him I think.
Coach K has never recruited me, but I'm willing to bet that he simply recruit players as basketball players, and not for specific positions. I will concede that the coaching staff probably tells players how they would like to use them, especially on offense. But I don't think that means that the players are recruited for specific positions.

Ryan could play 5, on defense. On offense, he would create severe matchup problems for the other team.

Back to the topic of recruiting: I doubt Duke goes after anyone else if Jefferson and Parker don't decide to play for the greatest coach still coaching.

[superdave]

Except that, Ryan isnt a 5. In fact, he seen as a stretch 4, meaning a 4 who feels more comfortable on the perimeter. In that sense, im not wild about him playing 30 minutes at an unnatural position, i.e the 5.


Ryan could play 5, on defense. On offense, he would create severe matchup problems for the other team.


I think Ryan could play the 5 on the defensive end pretty well. He's got good footwork and has the ability to block shots without fouling. I am concerned with his rebounding though. I do not entirely know what to expect from Marshall but he's a natural 5. I think we're good on defense with those two.

At the 4, Coach K has said he expects Alex to be a 4 year starter. I'll take that. With Josh plugging in at the 4-5 for 17-20 minutes, I think we'll have a good rotation. I think we will create a lot of matchup problems for other teams with Ryan and Alex, but rebounding is the concern.

As for the remaining big guys who are uncommitted in the Class of 2012, here's the list -
Center
http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=9&c=4&pid=45&yr=2012&cfg=bb
PF
http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=9&c=4&cfg=bb&pid=44&yr=2012

Who on these two lists should we pursue outside of Parker and Jefferson?

[luman50]

If Duke ends up with only one remaining scholarship to offer either Shabazz or Amile, how does that work? Does it depend who commits first? Or, is the a priority assigned to scholarships?

[lotusland]

So if Duke fails to secure commits from Parker, Jefferson, or Shabazz, does anyone think or have knowledge that Duke would target a "PF-C" prospect outside of the top 100? Just wondering what "bigs" were left out there uncommited? I think sometimes the power of a body that gives "5 hard fouls" and clog the lane on defense is underestimated. Thoughts?

Last time I checked I was outside the top 100 and I still have 4 years of eligibility. I'm considered a big in the space-eater sense, I've got 5 fouls to give and I'm not afraid to use them. If any of you insiders have K's ear please ask his people to call my people
:)

[Devilsfan]

You wind up with only one scholarship and you can get two of 2012's top players what would you do? I bet that Calipari/ol Roy would suddenly have transfers like ld2, and the wearing thin twins? Don't forget that it's a BIG business with millions at stake. We probably have too much integrity for the "transfer" approach, though. Funny how they became two of the top teams in the country.

[-bdbd]

If Duke ends up with only one remaining scholarship to offer either Shabazz or Amile, how does that work? Does it depend who commits first? Or, is the a priority assigned to scholarships?


You wind up with only one scholarship and you can get two of 2012's top players what would you do? I bet that Calipari/ol Roy would suddenly have transfers like ld2, and the wearing thin twins? Don't forget that it's a BIG business with millions at stake. We probably have too much integrity for the "transfer" approach, though. Funny how they became two of the top teams in the country.

First off, it is up to K and staff how/to whom they allocate scholarships - so no hard, fast (NCAA) rule. Some coaches, including just down the road a few miles, will offer a single scholarship to three or more guys and say "first-one-to-commit gets it..." That has not generally been K's style, and I suspect he doesn't think well of the practice.

Secondly, as has been discussed on these boards ad nauseum, there's more than one way to skin this "limited scholarships" cat: (1) More players than just MP1 could leave (for the pros, such as MP2 or AR); (2) Someone might transfer; (3) Someone else might give up their scholarship in order to accomodate the extra recruit (this has been done before at Duke in the generous personage of one Lee Melchioni, who gave up the first year of his scholarship so Duke could bring an extra recruit); (4) Would never happen at Duke, though Calimari did it - a staff can rescind scholarships to existing player(s). (They have to be renewed by the school annually.)



I'm probably in the minority and probably gonna catch some heat for this, but i guess we're all entitled to our own opinion. I just dont see Ryan at the 5, especially on defense/rebounds. Offensively, he likes to hang on the perimeter at that stretch 4 and has that good stroke from deep to make him a problem for other teams. That being said, he has shown, IMO, more crafty moves on the block than say either of the plumlees. he shown some good ball/head fake moves and a good drop step/step under move to get past an undisciplined/over-aggressive defender which is good if he's gonna play the 5, but i still think he's more polished/comfortable at that stretch 4 position Coach likes to have. As i mentioned earlier, im more concerned defensively and with rebounding if hes at the 5. Hes got good size (6-11, 230), but hes not a great athlete both vertically and laterally, as we've seen countless times this year (and please dont get mad at me for saying that, but we've all seen it and sometimes the truth hurts). Without great leaping ability and lateral mobility, I think he might struggle defending opposing 5's, especially teams who use their 5's as their first option. Same goes for rebounding. I mean, at 6-11, 230 with his basketball IQ, you'd think he'd be able to grab more than 5 and a half rebounds a game like he is this season except i think he's held back by his athletic ability. I'm not sure those numbers are gonna improve if he's playing the 5 (or even the 4 for that matter) next season. Even though he's struggled at times this year, I think he's more fit to defend the 4. He shown he's got a knack for coming from the weakside to help and get a block on the shot or draw a charge. anyway just my 2 cents sorry if i offended anyone just trying to voice some concerns/opinions.

I too have voiced concern, as MP3 and RK are less than "sure things" to adequately man the 5. I would think, if MP1 and MP2 were both gone, the first hope would be for MP3 to step in. To that end, I hope that he's added some meat and muscle and aggressiveness around the bucket, as he was manhandled more than once by other D1 caliber 5's during his Senior HS year. (Even though he's my favorite Duke player currently) RK as the primary 5, and w/o any overly big or athletic (read "rebound oriented") F's beside him, would leave a few vulnerrabilities up front. But I think this is starting to get too far afield from the central 2012 recruiting string.


To the other questioners, at this very late date it would be unusual in the extreme for Duke to get involved with another big-man recruit. I just don't see it happening. Either we land AJ to hopefully help along the frontline OR we just make due. That said, I am one of those whose recently come arouind to the view that MP2 may actually be staying another year... Fingers crossed big-time!! :rolleyes:

[Kedsy]

What is your definition of "contribute" for a PF or C? To me, a Big that can provide some defensive rebounding, altering a few shots, and giving some rest to MP2/3 sure could come in handy next year. I don't think you have to be a top 25 recruit to be able to provide that level of contribution as a freshman. Say 8-10 minutes/ 4-6 boards/ and a put-back or two seems reasonable to me.

There is little chance that a freshman who was ranked outside the top 100 could get 8 to 10 minutes at Duke. Michael Gbinije barely plays and he was top 30. Four to six rebounds is even more unlikely -- 6 rebounds a game would rank that person 3rd on this year's team! Your expectations for this hypothetical recruit are completely unreasonable.

Even if Mason and Austin leave early and we don't get any more recruits for next year, there will be at least two really good players who don't play much, at least in competitive games. There is no need to bring in another body, especially one who would clog up a scholarship for four years.

[superdave]

6'9'' - 200lbs. Ranked #140 by Rivals. Not ranked in the RSCI or by Scout and Espn from what I saw.

He has played 113 minutes so far this year and scored a total of 17 points ad grabbed 36 rebounds.

Is that worth throwing a late scholarship out there? I say no.

Parker is the only option at the 5 that we could potentially get this year. Otherwise it's Ryan and Marshall at the 5, whether we agree or not.

If Amile comes, does that not likely mean even more minutes at the 5 for Ryan since the 4 would be more crowded?

[Starter]

With Sulaimon, I have high hopes for him based on what I've heard about his game. But I was just pointing out the perceived lack of a go-to man on next year's team if Rivers goes and Muhammad doesn't come, and I wouldn't assume Sulaimon is going to rectify that, at least not right away. Even a player who ended up as good as Nolan Smith didn't begin to pay dividends until his junior year. And though J.J. Redick was an immediate contributor, he wasn't The Man until his junior year. It takes a truly elite player to be that sort of difference-maker immediately; Kyrie and Austin qualified, and having seen him in person, I can safely say Muhammad does as well. It'd be an amazing upset if Sulaimon was THAT sort of player right away.


TWEEEETT!!! TWEEEETT!!! TWEEEETT!!!

These posts have nothing to do with 2012 Recruiting. -- sage

With all due respect -- because you are technically right -- I was discussing my impressions next year's team if Duke doesn't land 2012 recruit Shabazz Muhammad. I actually was trying to steer it on topic -- i.e. what the team would look like if a recruit did or didn't come, which I find highly relevant. There's only so much you can say about Muhammad, Jefferson and Parker themselves, and I didn't see a dedicated thread for this sort of discussion. (That said, I'd be happy to shelve it for -- hopefully!!! -- a couple of weeks until the requisite threads are available...)

[stixof96]

what happened last night will not help recruiting........you can carry that to the bank...........

[superdave]

what happened last night will not help recruiting........you can carry that to the bank...........

Guys see opportunity. At least the good ones do.

[jennja01]

what happened last night will not help recruiting........you can carry that to the bank...........


Guys see opportunity. At least the good ones do.


FWIW, Jason Jordon, recruiting analyst for ESPN who seems to be very close to a number of recruits (TP, Randle, Sulimon etc), tweeted something along the lines of:

"a recruit just texted me this: 'Duke lost? thats not a good look to me J'. (to which Jason added something along the lines of) 'this stuff matters to recruits'"

no point really in speculating who texted him that, coulda been anyone, but I think i have a pretty good idea of who....

either way, i think its important to note that stuff like that does matter to recruits. I know theyre only 17-18 years old and therefore dont make the most rational decisions always, but i can see a recruit thinking "why would i want to waste my talents at a school that loses to lehigh in the first round". conversely there are probably some recruits who look at it as "wow, that team could really use me, I could shine there!"

[mapleleafdevil]

A true top notch player would relish the opportunity to take a team from the lowest of the low, to a championship. Shabazz now has the opportunity to be a legend at Duke rather than just another top one and done guy.

[jennja01]

A true top notch player would relish the opportunity to take a team from the lowest of the low, to a championship. Shabazz now has the opportunity to be a legend at Duke rather than just another top one and done guy.

I agree, but the same argument could be made for the other schools on his list. Imagine being the hometown hero to bring UNLV back to the top of college bball. or UCLA, which has had a rough go of things lately. or he could go down in history as the guy who brought Kentucky back to back championships, if they win it this year, after losing all that talent to the nba. While i think Duke has a better chance next year to win it all than those other schools, its still a possibility anywhere.

[OldSchool]

A true top notch player would relish the opportunity to take a team from the lowest of the low, to a championship. Shabazz now has the opportunity to be a legend at Duke rather than just another top one and done guy.

The best of these guys, especially the prospective one and dones, want to play with other great players and play in a Final Four to compete for a championship. It's why Harrison Barnes decided not to stay in Iowa but play with guys like Zeller and Henson (or maybe at Duke had Kyle not been ahead of him on the depth chart). It's why Austin was so beside himself last night in shock that he would not be competing in a Final Four this year.

If Austin and Mason come back, then Bazz coming to Duke would (1) fill a hole in the starting five and (2) get to play with other great players and (3) have the highest chance at competing for a national championship. With Austin, Mason and Bazz and Coach K obviously Duke would be a favorite to go all the way.

I think Quinn and MP3 will end up being a great true 1-true 5 combination, and with both of them more experienced and Quinn's knee hopefully at full strength next year, we could be loaded for bear.

I think if Austin and Mason both leave, then Duke may be less attractive for a guy like Bazz.

[Newton_14]

Folks, you were warned, so don't be shocked when you wake up tomorrow with an infraction pm. If your post is not about 2012 recruiting, it will be deleted, every single time. Want to discuss next year's team, or Ryan at the 5, or Murph at the 4, or Austin's presser, start your own thread. This one is for 2012 recruiting.

[Dukehky]

At this point, do we even really want Parker? Of course having a load in the middle would be nice to have, but the way he seems to carry himself and treat this process as if its some kind of Tony Parker sweepstakes doesn't exactly endear me to the kid. I wonder how the coaches feel about it. Clearly they actually know him and presumably know him well since we've been recruiting him hard and for a long time, but they can't exactly be thrilled about the way he talks about Duke publicly.
I'd still be thrilled to have him to add to the depth of next year's front line, especially if we can get a 2 in 2 out situation like we did in 2010 with Mason and Ryan Starting then trade in MP3 and Tony after a few minutes with Tony to operate in the post and Marshall to do the screening and trying to grab boards.

I really think that with Jefferson, Shabazz, and Parker, they're all going to wait to see who leaves and who stays because they all want to play immediately. Shabazz less so, cause he's going to start, but if Austin's there (known ball stopper) he may be less willing to come, but I sense that Jefferson either wants to fill the gap Calvin Leslie leaves at state or the one Mason leaves (different style) at Duke, and Parker wants Duke to change everything about the program to appease him, but he really doesn't want to have to sit behind Kelly Mason and battle for time with the likes of Marshall and Hairston.

Shabazz fills our needs the most I think and will do so immediately, seeing as we have no proven player at the actual 3 spot, despite how hopeful we are for Murph/Silent G to be players. Again, if Bazz comes, he's starting.

[dukedoc]

Nerlens is reportedly down to Syracuse, KY, and Georgetown. He had been considering UNC. Thankfully we won't have to face him twice during our Tobacco Road matchups.

[Johnny Chill]

At this point, do we even really want Parker? Of course having a load in the middle would be nice to have, but the way he seems to carry himself and treat this process as if its some kind of Tony Parker sweepstakes doesn't exactly endear me to the kid. I wonder how the coaches feel about it. Clearly they actually know him and presumably know him well since we've been recruiting him hard and for a long time, but they can't exactly be thrilled about the way he talks about Duke publicly.
I'd still be thrilled to have him to add to the depth of next year's front line, especially if we can get a 2 in 2 out situation like we did in 2010 with Mason and Ryan Starting then trade in MP3 and Tony after a few minutes with Tony to operate in the post and Marshall to do the screening and trying to grab boards.

I really think that with Jefferson, Shabazz, and Parker, they're all going to wait to see who leaves and who stays because they all want to play immediately. Shabazz less so, cause he's going to start, but if Austin's there (known ball stopper) he may be less willing to come, but I sense that Jefferson either wants to fill the gap Calvin Leslie leaves at state or the one Mason leaves (different style) at Duke, and Parker wants Duke to change everything about the program to appease him, but he really doesn't want to have to sit behind Kelly Mason and battle for time with the likes of Marshall and Hairston.

Shabazz fills our needs the most I think and will do so immediately, seeing as we have no proven player at the actual 3 spot, despite how hopeful we are for Murph/Silent G to be players. Again, if Bazz comes, he's starting.

If Tony Parker is still interested in Duke, we would take him and he would start as a frosh next to Mason. But at this point Parker to Duke isnt going to happen. The attention is on Jefferson and Bazz.

Jefferson would be a nice addition. Duke seems to get guys like him (tweeners): Thomas, Boykins, McClure, Hairston, but they play an important role for Duke teams.

Bazz would absolute be a stud at Duke. Not sure if we need him because of Murphy and Gbinije but if we can get him, we take him and start him.

[Saratoga2]

It will depend on who goes and who stays as to how many we can recruit. With Sheed coming in, we may have one or two additional spots. I for one want to see us get a true big man of the Tony Parker mold. If that can't happen, there are other alternatives talked about in this string. Getting another highly ranked small forward would also be a good strategy. Too bad coach K can't just pull a lever and get his guy, but that is not what happens these days or probably in the past.

[MaxAMillion]

FWIW, Jason Jordon, recruiting analyst for ESPN who seems to be very close to a number of recruits (TP, Randle, Sulimon etc), tweeted something along the lines of:

"a recruit just texted me this: 'Duke lost? thats not a good look to me J'. (to which Jason added something along the lines of) 'this stuff matters to recruits'"

no point really in speculating who texted him that, coulda been anyone, but I think i have a pretty good idea of who....

either way, i think its important to note that stuff like that does matter to recruits. I know theyre only 17-18 years old and therefore dont make the most rational decisions always, but i can see a recruit thinking "why would i want to waste my talents at a school that loses to lehigh in the first round". conversely there are probably some recruits who look at it as "wow, that team could really use me, I could shine there!"

I don't think a loss in the NCAA tournament has any long lasting impact with recruits. UNC was able to keep recruiting even though they went to the NIT. Howland appears to be able to still recruit even with all of UCLA's problems. Most coaches would love to have Duke's problems when it comes to recruiting. The staff just needs to identify players that fit the school and the program. I think Sulaimon is a perfect example of that fit.

[loldevilz]

I don't think a loss in the NCAA tournament has any long lasting impact with recruits. UNC was able to keep recruiting even though they went to the NIT. Howland appears to be able to still recruit even with all of UCLA's problems. Most coaches would love to have Duke's problems when it comes to recruiting. The staff just needs to identify players that fit the school and the program. I think Sulaimon is a perfect example of that fit.

I don't think this is even top 5 in factors effecting our recruiting. Our reputation among big man recruits, our reputation among African-American recruits, and the pressure of being a Duke basketball player, are all issues that will affect our recruiting more than how great we've done in the tournament recently.

[wilko]

I don't think this is even top 5 in factors effecting our recruiting. Our reputation among big man recruits, our reputation among African-American recruits, and the pressure of being a Duke basketball player, are all issues that will affect our recruiting more than how great we've done in the tournament recently.

I think if Duke were a party school or an "easy" school recruiting would be somewhat easier.
That we make our guys bother to go to class, when other schools seemingly aren't as rigid, well it makes Duke less attractive to the elite who just passing thru for a good time on the way to a paycheck.

Those who have been pampered, mollycoddled and never had to work hard with God given talent, well, why start now?

The system is out of wack.

[OrangeDevil]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

[Saratoga2]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

You have been straightforward enough to state the issue clearly, without implying criticism or demeaning the players. Whille UNC has long tall athletes at every position with some coming off the bench as well. Recruits like Bullock, Hairston and Mcadoo tend to get PT during the season, even though they are on learning curves. By tournament time they seem ready to contribute. I don't think we want to emulate Kentucky, but they have taken recruiting of 1 and doners to an extreme with of course super on court performance.

Alex, Marshall and Michael have seen pretty much only practice time or none at all. Do we think they will eventually be contributors to the program? Clearly we do or we wouldn't have recruited them, but the recruits that helped us this year were Austin (a future pro) and to a much lesser degree Quinn, who could wind us as an excellent point guard. It is difficult to recruit kids that are both academically qualified and also highly gifted basketball players and athletes. Getting a couple of those players per year would quickly give this program the shot in the arm it needs. As far as height is concerned, teams like Murray State and Missouri were small at guard like us, but perhaps quicker. They had trouble competing in the tournament as we did. Sheed may help us in this way at 6'3" and if we have Austin back another year and play our small forwards, or get a super recruit at that position.

I agree with you that recruiting the right people is key to our success going forward. Kind of obvious, but this year it wasn't evident that it happened.

[-jk]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

This has been one of my points for a while now: playing for Duke is not "fun" - or easy, for that matter. It's work. In the classroom. On the court. And everywhere else. While you can't coast your way to the nba from Duke, when you get there, you tend to stick around. If you don't get there, you tend to be successful anyway. It takes a committed kid to play at Duke, but the reward is usually there.

If you have talent and don't care, there are a bunch of programs that will let you coast - have "fun" - and get you in the draft. But a lot of those kids don't stick around.

"Fun" or "work"? Tough call for 18 year olds. Less tough for 30 year olds looking back and thinking "what if?". Alas, they can't really think it at 18. Kids...

-jk

[Kedsy]

That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years.

I remember people saying pretty much this exact same thing after we lost to Villanova in 2009. They were wrong, too.

And what do you mean by "needs to be addressed"? You think Coach K isn't trying as hard as he can to recruit? I hope you don't think he needs to be replaced, but I can't think of any other way to "address" the recruiting "problem."

[OrangeDevil]

I remember people saying pretty much this exact same thing after we lost to Villanova in 2009. They were wrong, too.

And what do you mean by "needs to be addressed"? You think Coach K isn't trying as hard as he can to recruit? I hope you don't think he needs to be replaced, but I can't think of any other way to "address" the recruiting "problem."

Like you, I hope I am wrong. And I'm supremely confidant that Coach K is thinking about this and redoubling recruiting efforts. As far as replacing him, nonsense. Not only does he remain the most capable coach in college basketball, but his leadership and abilities are the principal reason why this year's edition, with the various problems identified by myself and others, did as well as it did. K himself said it best, paraphrased as "we are not a juggernaut. We have known this all year. We have to be very precise [to win]. I understand your frustration and disappointment. I share it. But also like you, I expect and hope for better. Why? Because we are Duke! Next year is, to my way of thinking, a most important year. With Austin and Mason hopefully back (big ifs, maybe Mason's return is most important) and with a breakout year from Quinn (I agree with Saratoga2 about his potential) and Gbinije Duke can make a deeper run and position itself for the recruiting benefits to follow. And moderator JK is also correct, Duke is demanding and many players are not prepared for the academic commitment that Duke requires. I wouldn't have it any other way. Still, dominating teams and championship seasons say it can happen. I want to see us back with K and crw celebrating another national championship.

[FerryFor50]

I think Duke recruiting needs to focus less on the stars next to the names and more on the type of player to fit the system. I think K would do well to recruit players similar to who VCU gets - feisty on-ball defenders that focus on defense first and that stick around for at least 3 years...

It's nice to get 4 and 5 star guys, but it stinks when they don't fit into the system.

[Des Esseintes]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

You've been watching Duke basketball for more than two weeks, right? Because we've won 5 of the last 7 games we've played against Carolina. Two years ago, we were wildly more talented than UNC and won a championship. Last year, we were significantly more talented than UNC and had probably the best team in the country* until injuries intervened. And, hey, this year Carolina is better. That's how it goes. The great programs are going to surge and ebb, one in front for a spell then the other. Next year? Carolina likely loses a ton. Duke could bring back almost everyone. We will probably be better than UNC next year. But, by all means, piss and moan a bunch about a year in which we only split with them.

*Last year we were SO GOOD we lost KYRIE IRVING and WERE STILL ARGUABLY THE BEST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. Do you have any idea how lucky we are? How incredibly, historically well this program is functioning right now?

[Sir Stealth]

I think Duke recruiting needs to focus less on the stars next to the names and more on the type of player to fit the system. I think K would do well to recruit players similar to who VCU gets - feisty on-ball defenders that focus on defense first and that stick around for at least 3 years...

It's nice to get 4 and 5 star guys, but it stinks when they don't fit into the system.

This is classic day after a disappointing loss overreaction commentary. What players do we have that you are so sure don't fit our system? And what is that system exactly - it seems pretty clear that we adjust our system to our players. Did Brian Zoubek fit the "system" that you have in mind? Did Jon Scheyer?

Wishing that we had players more like VCU is the silliest thing I have ever heard. Because they had a nice tournament run last year and are outperforming their seed this year? VCU will never win a national championship. They would not have even gotten in the tournament this year without pulling off an upset in the conference title game. They have had a couple of nice tournament runs, but believe me, the reason that Duke is Duke (best program of the expanded tournament era, by the way), is because Coach K consistently recruits and lands 4 and 5 star guys every single year. Without them, our program would have success more in-line with say, VCU....

3 ACC Championships and a national title in the last 4 years and Coach K needs to change how he recruits to recruit less elite players like they have at vastly inferior programs.....unreal.

[-bdbd]

This is classic day after a disappointing loss overreaction commentary. What players do we have that you are so sure don't fit our system? And what is that system exactly - it seems pretty clear that we adjust our system to our players. Did Brian Zoubek fit the "system" that you have in mind? Did Jon Scheyer?

Wishing that we had players more like VCU is the silliest thing I have ever heard. Because they had a nice tournament run last year and are outperforming their seed this year? VCU will never win a national championship. They would not have even gotten in the tournament this year without pulling off an upset in the conference title game. They have had a couple of nice tournament runs, but believe me, the reason that Duke is Duke (best program of the expanded tournament era, by the way), is because Coach K consistently recruits and lands 4 and 5 star guys every single year. Without them, our program would have success more in-line with say, VCU....

3 ACC Championships and a national title in the last 4 years and Coach K needs to change how he recruits to recruit less elite players like they have at vastly inferior programs.....unreal.

I generally track with the sentiment, but think that it less about "finding more players who precisely fit 'our system' " -- I think one could reasonably argue that not all of the current kids exude all of the traits we've come to associate with Duke guards and wings (such as quick, heady and intense defense) -- and more about finding some more kids who fit certain roles that we've had such success with (but may currently lack one of those). What I mean is, think about the possible impact of solving the issue of the oft-pointed-to lack of a versatile SF type of guy in the 6'7" - 6'9" (are you listening Mr. Jefferson???), in the mold of Grant Hill and Shane Battier or Antonio Lang. Sure could have used one of those Friday night...

But as SS points out, it isn't like this team didn't contend for the ACC regular season championship right up until the final day, or win a boatload of games against a very challenging sked, or stay ranked in the top-10 all year long... There's an awful lot of schools out there who'd love to have to live with that sort of disappointment... :rolleyes: ;) :D

[MaxAMillion]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.

I think an issue that isn't discussed enough is that UNC's players have been coming back to play additional years and that hasn't been the case as often at Duke (at least not with Irving). I am convinced the last two season would have been completely different if Irving had been healthy last season and stayed on to play this season. UNC on the other hand had all their players come back for another year (much like Hansborough and Lawson did a couple of years earlier).

It is hard to account for players leaving early (unless you are UK and you make leaving early part of your recruiting plan).

[dukedoc]

I think an issue that isn't discussed enough is that UNC's players have been coming back to play additional years and that hasn't been the case as often at Duke (at least not with Irving). I am convinced the last two season would have been completely different if Irving had been healthy last season and stayed on to play this season. UNC on the other hand had all their players come back for another year (much like Hansborough and Lawson did a couple of years earlier).

I agree that this has been a key element of our recent difficulties. I think we had some serious talent this year but we were extremely inconsistent. We also didn't have a consistent point guard. If Kyrie had stayed, even beyond his individual talent and contributions, I think he would have affected everyone else in such a fundamental way. He is so consistent night in and night out and causes defenses to change dramatically to account for him. In those sorts of ways he would have changed the whole complexion of the team and perhaps galvanized the confidence of some of the more vulnerable members of our team.

That said, early departures happen to all teams and the best of teams will continue to rise to the top despite them. The main thing that frustrates me about early departures is not that they happen, but that crazy fans (Duke fans included) judge programs (and their relative values compared to each other) based on single seasons. This is one of those years in which the UNC pendulum (talent-wise, perhaps not execution, yet) has swung far one way, and our pendulum less so. Some years, it'll be Duke>UNC. Hard to predict. The only way to account for these year-by-year aberrations is to "increase your N" - i.e. have a bigger sample size of years and make conclusions based on that. From that perspective, I'd say we're doing just fine.

The 2012 recruiting cycle isn't over, but I think 2013-2014 will be particularly telling.

[Matches]

I think an issue that isn't discussed enough is that UNC's players have been coming back to play additional years and that hasn't been the case as often at Duke (at least not with Irving). I am convinced the last two season would have been completely different if Irving had been healthy last season and stayed on to play this season. UNC on the other hand had all their players come back for another year (much like Hansborough and Lawson did a couple of years earlier).

It is hard to account for players leaving early (unless you are UK and you make leaving early part of your recruiting plan).

The Heels certainly have caught a few breaks with guys staying a year longer than expected (and must surely still love the cop who pulled Lawson over for his DUI), but then again we've caught a few of those breaks too (Singler, McRoberts). I believe the coaching staff knew from the beginning that Irving and AR were likely done-in-ones, so would have taken that into account when planning for the future.

We have a credibility gap with big men - we can all rationalize why it's unfair or unwarranted, but it's there. We have trouble getting skilled post players. The team's needs are relatively easy to identify - true PG, dominant post player, athletic wing - but at this point the only one of those needs we could realistically fill from the 2012 class is the wing.

[COYS]

I agree that this has been a key element of our recent difficulties. I think we had some serious talent this year but we were extremely inconsistent. We also didn't have a consistent point guard. If Kyrie had stayed, even beyond his individual talent and contributions, I think he would have affected everyone else in such a fundamental way. He is so consistent night in and night out and causes defenses to change dramatically to account for him. In those sorts of ways he would have changed the whole complexion of the team and perhaps galvanized the confidence of some of the more vulnerable members of our team.

That said, early departures happen to all teams and the best of teams will continue to rise to the top despite them. The main thing that frustrates me about early departures is not that they happen, but that crazy fans (Duke fans included) judge programs (and their relative values compared to each other) based on single seasons. This is one of those years in which the UNC pendulum (talent-wise, perhaps not execution, yet) has swung far one way, and our pendulum less so. Some years, it'll be Duke>UNC. Hard to predict. The only way to account for these year-by-year aberrations is to "increase your N" - i.e. have a bigger sample size of years and make conclusions based on that. From that perspective, I'd say we're doing just fine.

The 2012 recruiting cycle isn't over, but I think 2013-2014 will be particularly telling.

There's a lot of luck involved in players staying, too. UNC fans had to deal with the thought of Boozer, Dunleavy, and Williams returning to Duke the year after winning the championship while their program suffered NBA defections after chemistry issues destroyed the end of their season.

Later in the decade, UNC fans get lucky as Felton, McCants, and May stay through their junior years while Duke only gets one year out of Deng and no years out of Shaun Livingston. Fast forward a few years, and Lawson gets a DUI that ends his chances of being a high pick in the 2008 draft. He comes back and runs the offense for his junior year and leads UNC to a title.

Then the pendulum swings right back again, as Nolan and Kyle return for their senior seasons after winning a championship.

Then it swings back again as Henson, Barnes, and Zeller all return for their soph, junior, and senior seasons while Duke loses Kyrie to injury and then to the draft.

Really, i don't think either program has much to complain about. UNC has had a little more luck in keeping players who were projected pretty high in the draft in recent seasons, but Duke had all the luck earlier in the 2000's. If Mason and AR stay while Barnes, Henson, and Marshall bolt for the NBA, then WE'LL have a turn as the lucky ones.

[sagegrouse]

I've been following this thread with great interest in terms of listening to what others think about Duke's personnel and the recruiting possibilities to address some of the issues that were exposed with this year's team. Not being privy to the actual circumstances with each prospect, I'm not sure of the likelihood of any of the remaining 2012 class signing with Duke. That said, recruiting is THE problem and it needs to be addressed if Duke has any hopes of advancing to or beyond the Sweet 16 in the next couple of years. The difference in talent between us and UNC is striking and startling and their current run toward another possible title can only exascerbate our difficulty. One of my morning rituals is to check the NBA boxscores from the previous evening with an eye trained at the performances of Duke alums. Not surprisingly, they are impressive with most logging significant minutes and scoring in double figures. However, what I am often reminded of is how many of those players played on Duke teams with one, two, or even three other current NBAers. In my view there is only one, yes one, NBA player on the Duke roster. Rivers will be, although he needs more upper body strength and game experience before he's truly NBA ready. Although he may be drafted, I do not see Mason Plumlee as a player with much real NBA potential. He may sit for someone for several years but that's about it. Miles Plumlee offered effort and yeoman service during his Duke career, but his career is essentially finished unless he catches on with the Vladivostok Vodka in the Russian D-League. Our guards lack defensive quickness, and alternately, can't handle or get to the basket. The questions about the redshirting of Murphy and MP3 are spot on. The answer, in no small part, is that neither was physically strong enough to compete as freshmen. How did this state of affairs happen? I don't know, but it has to be turned around and with other programs rapidly rebuilding and gearing up it needs happen soon. One wing a year is not the solution. We have got to start getting some quality bigs.


You have been straightforward enough to state the issue clearly, without implying criticism or demeaning the players. Whille UNC has long tall athletes at every position with some coming off the bench as well. Recruits like Bullock, Hairston and Mcadoo tend to get PT during the season, even though they are on learning curves. By tournament time they seem ready to contribute. I don't think we want to emulate Kentucky, but they have taken recruiting of 1 and doners to an extreme with of course super on court performance.

Alex, Marshall and Michael have seen pretty much only practice time or none at all. Do we think they will eventually be contributors to the program? Clearly we do or we wouldn't have recruited them, but the recruits that helped us this year were Austin (a future pro) and to a much lesser degree Quinn, who could wind us as an excellent point guard. It is difficult to recruit kids that are both academically qualified and also highly gifted basketball players and athletes. Getting a couple of those players per year would quickly give this program the shot in the arm it needs. As far as height is concerned, teams like Murray State and Missouri were small at guard like us, but perhaps quicker. They had trouble competing in the tournament as we did. Sheed may help us in this way at 6'3" and if we have Austin back another year and play our small forwards, or get a super recruit at that position.

I agree with you that recruiting the right people is key to our success going forward. Kind of obvious, but this year it wasn't evident that it happened.

I understand and share your frustrations. Please let me address a few of your points:

Talent disparity with UNC -- UNC had 2-3 first-round draft picks decide to return to college; Duke had the overall #1 pick in the NBA draft jump to the league. Something similar happened after the 1998 season, but the shoe was on the other foot. Elton returned, but Vince and Antawn departed.

Recruiting is THE problem and must improve if Duke is to advance to or beyond the Sweet Sixteen -- We were a #1 seed last year and a #2 seed this year. We have been in the AP top ten every week for the last three years. And we have no chance of getting to the Sweet Sixteen? I do share your frustrations about the recent Duke games, but I think you have gone beyond reason in your conclusion.

Duke players on the bench don't get enough PT -- Well, everybody on the Carolina squad had to play this year, given the shortness of the roster due to transfers and the injuries that occurred. Normally, of course, Ol' Roy runs players in and out of the lineup like it's a fire drill. I don't want that done at Duke, and UNC fans have lots of doubts about Roy's game management skills. Duke uses a 7-8 man rotation, but this year nine players got significant minutes. Duke practices are reportedly brutal, and that's how players are supposed to develop. Yeah, I wanna see the new recruits play too, but it often doesn't happen.

FWIW, someone on this thread or another one had a roster for next year, assuming that both AR and Mason return and that Duke gets an additional recruit (Jefferson?) beyond Sheed. Uh,... oh-oh,... yikes!! That's a roster of 11 returning players plus two new recruits, all 13 of whom expect to play. I don't think that's gonna happen (although I would like it), but can you imagine the intensity of the discussion about rotation and PT on this well-moderated Board?

sagegrouse

[CDu]

FWIW, someone on this thread or another one had a roster for next year, assuming that both AR and Mason return and that Duke gets an additional recruit (Jefferson?) beyond Sheed. Uh,... oh-oh,... yikes!! That's a roster of 11 returning players plus two new recruits, all 13 of whom expect to play. I don't think that's gonna happen (although I would like it), but can you imagine the intensity of the discussion about rotation and PT on this well-moderated Board?

I didn't post the one you're referencing, but I did post a similar analysis assuming no additional recruits join the team.

Even if we lose both Mason and Rivers, we'll have 9 top-100 recruits (7 of them top 30-40 level guys when you consider where Murphy and Dawkins were in their class before coming early) and another guy who flew under the radar but has proven to be All-ACC caliber (Curry) on the roster. Considering that Coach K rarely plays more than 8 guys regularly, that leaves two guys in the scrapping for minor minutes. Depth next year is not going to be an issue any more than it was this year (other than that we had "too much" of it). The numbers game only gets more complicated if either Mason (who I expect to return) and/or Rivers (who I could opting either way) returns.

Not that I'd be complaining about that. It's just that we'll have a very diverse and intriguing group of players even without any additional guys coming in. And I hope/think that Coach K will leave the opportunities for playing time wide open. It'll just be a matter of who decides to step up and win minutes.

[tommy]

Little article here where Shabazz's dad confirms there'll be an official to UCLA in early April followed by a decision, probably the 9th or 10th.

What I found intriguing, and subject to a couple different interpretations, are these comments about Duke and what they've been hearing from Coach K:

"Holmes said he was “very surprised” that No. 2 Duke was upended Friday by No. 15 Lehigh, and that the loss only underscored Duke’s needs going forward.
“Very surprised but Coach K had been talking about that team with us and he understood that they had some deficiencies so that’s why he’s recruiting Shabazz so hard because he wants a more athletic player, a player that has the abilities to be a defensive player and things of that nature,” Holmes said. “He kind of saw the punch coming, I think.”"


I know one of our recruiting targets made some comment to ESPN's Jason Jordan about how, in considering our loss to Lehigh, that "def wasn't a good look to me" or words to that effect, indicating he viewed that loss and its implications as something weighing on him in a negative way when thinking about being part of the Duke program, but I have a feeling that wasn't Bazz. Jordan didn't say. Maybe Parker, I don't know. Sure hope it wasn't Bazz.

[Steven43]

The Heels certainly have caught a few breaks with guys staying a year longer than expected (and must surely still love the cop who pulled Lawson over for his DUI), but then again we've caught a few of those breaks too (Singler, McRoberts). I believe the coaching staff knew from the beginning that Irving and AR were likely done-in-ones, so would have taken that into account when planning for the future.

We have a credibility gap with big men - we can all rationalize why it's unfair or unwarranted, but it's there. We have trouble getting skilled post players. The team's needs are relatively easy to identify - true PG, dominant post player, athletic wing - but at this point the only one of those needs we could realistically fill from the 2012 class is the wing.

I also suspect that we have a credibility gap with potential recruits who are bigs. If that is indeed the case, can you think of any other program that is on or near Duke's elite level that has a similar perception problem with a major segment of their team? When thinking about Kansas, UNC, UConn, Syracuse, Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona, etc. no issues like this come to mind. They seem able to recruit all positions equally well. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I can't think of another elite program that has a similar recruiting problem. Perhaps Mason will have a monster year in 2012-2013, Julius Randle will decide to come to Duke and be the dominating player that most seem to think he will be, and we will begin to put this thing behind us for good.

[gam7]

I know one of our recruiting targets made some comment to ESPN's Jason Jordan about how, in considering our loss to Lehigh, that "def wasn't a good look to me" or words to that effect, indicating he viewed that loss and its implications as something weighing on him in a negative way when thinking about being part of the Duke program, but I have a feeling that wasn't Bazz. Jordan didn't say. Maybe Parker, I don't know. Sure hope it wasn't Bazz.


I didn't see the tweet, but was it definitely someone Duke is recruiting? Even if it is, I think everyone on this board can agree that losing to a 15 seed and playing the way we did on Friday is not a good look. Obviously, the team, the coaches and the fans would have liked to have played better and won. If the quote is meant to suggest that the target is less likely to go to Duke because it didn't look good that we lost - newsflash to that player: they weren't playing the game to look good to you. But, I'm not sure it would make sense for Parker to say it either, considering that many people think he's strongly considering UCLA...

[UrinalCake]

can you think of any other program that is on or near Duke's elite level that has a similar perception problem with a major segment of their team?

Perusing Inside Carolina after a loss, I saw several threads questioning why Roy can't recruit a shooter, and why all of the good shooters choose to come to Duke. Weeding through the muck, the more rational posts suggested that it's because their system focuses on the bigs first and the guards aren't allowed to let the three pointers fly like they are at Duke.

[CDu]

Little article here where Shabazz's dad confirms there'll be an official to UCLA in early April followed by a decision, probably the 9th or 10th.

What I found intriguing, and subject to a couple different interpretations, are these comments about Duke and what they've been hearing from Coach K:

"Holmes said he was “very surprised” that No. 2 Duke was upended Friday by No. 15 Lehigh, and that the loss only underscored Duke’s needs going forward.
“Very surprised but Coach K had been talking about that team with us and he understood that they had some deficiencies so that’s why he’s recruiting Shabazz so hard because he wants a more athletic player, a player that has the abilities to be a defensive player and things of that nature,” Holmes said. “He kind of saw the punch coming, I think.”"


I know one of our recruiting targets made some comment to ESPN's Jason Jordan about how, in considering our loss to Lehigh, that "def wasn't a good look to me" or words to that effect, indicating he viewed that loss and its implications as something weighing on him in a negative way when thinking about being part of the Duke program, but I have a feeling that wasn't Bazz. Jordan didn't say. Maybe Parker, I don't know. Sure hope it wasn't Bazz.

I feel like the best sales pitch is to be honest about your team's strengths as well as your needs, and to explain how you think the recruit could fill those needs while noting how you feel like you could meet the recruit's needs. So I suspect that what you've described is more or less the sales pitch Coach K has used with all three players (of course with the Coach K magic):

To Muhammad: we don't have a ton of size and athleticism at the 3 right now like we did with Davis, the Hills, Dunleavy, and Henderson. You would change that immediately. And you would put us over the top. And we could accentuate your skills like we did with those other guys.

To Jefferson: our best teams have often had an athletic, versatile PF (Hill, Lang, Battier, Deng). We haven't had that type of player the last couple of years. With you, we'd have that type of dynamic PF that can change a game and put us over the top. And we can accentuate your skills like we did with those other guys.

To Parker: we haven't had a great back-to-the-basket scorer in several years. You could change that immediately, and maybe put us over the top. With you, we'd have that low-post scorer that we haven't had since Brand, Boozer, and Williams. And we could accentuate your skills like we did with those other guys.

[MCFinARL]

I didn't see the tweet, but was it definitely someone Duke is recruiting? Even if it is, I think everyone on this board can agree that losing to a 15 seed and playing the way we did on Friday is not a good look. Obviously, the team, the coaches and the fans would have liked to have played better and won. If the quote is meant to suggest that the target is less likely to go to Duke because it didn't look good that we lost - newsflash to that player: they weren't playing the game to look good to you. But, I'm not sure it would make sense for Parker to say it either, considering that many people think he's strongly considering UCLA...

I wondered about this myself. I did see the tweet, and it said "a recruit," as I recall. Didn't say a Duke recruit, didn't even say a 2012 recruit. Could be from someone who is only being recruited by other schools and is just making an observation, or someone who has talked to Duke but is from 2013 or 2014, or from someone in 2014 who has Duke on a list of 20 schools but hasn't heard much (or anything) from the staff as well as from a recruit to whom Duke has actually offered. There may be a lot less to this than meets the eye (of course, that's pretty much what I think about Twitter altogether, so I might be biased).

[slower]

Bazz would absolute be a stud at Duke. Not sure if we need him because of Murphy and Gbinije but if we can get him, we take him and start him.

It's NEVER a matter of "need" for guys like that. He's the #1 player. The question is whether he feels that he "needs" us.

[G man]

I also suspect that we have a credibility gap with potential recruits who are bigs. If that is indeed the case, can you think of any other program that is on or near Duke's elite level that has a similar perception problem with a major segment of their team? When thinking about Kansas, UNC, UConn, Syracuse, Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona, etc. no issues like this come to mind. They seem able to recruit all positions equally well. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I can't think of another elite program that has a similar recruiting problem. Perhaps Mason will have a monster year in 2012-2013, Julius Randle will decide to come to Duke and be the dominating player that most seem to think he will be, and we will begin to put this thing behind us for good.

I have a bunch of friends who love Kansas and they all scream about their inability to recruit top ten players out of high school. Also they struggle to recruit Mc D level guards. Despite that they may be the best program at getting guys willing to develop on their bench. Every year they have someone step up who either was a role player or deep on the bench the year before. Arizona is just now recovering I don't think that this applies. I hate Uconn as much as the next guy, but I am flat out jealous of the guys they have put into the league.

[#1Duke]

Perusing Inside Carolina after a loss, I saw several threads questioning why Roy can't recruit a shooter, and why all of the good shooters choose to come to Duke. Weeding through the muck, the more rational posts suggested that it's because their system focuses on the bigs first and the guards aren't allowed to let the three pointers fly like they are at Duke.

It seems that yes, Roy puts much more stock in the inside game and the Bigs.
If you caught what he had to say at halftime in the Creighton game ..... commenting that his team was taking to many jump shots and outside shots..... " that's just dumb basketball" he said.
I think that was a good indication on how feels and looks at the game.

Also, would top big men be interested in a team that doesn't go to them often and gives them limited chances to showcase their talents??
All things being equal, I think potential recruits look at the system in which their talents can shine.

[A-Tex Devil]

Since I've been paying attention to Duke recruiting (about 18 years), Duke has had exactly THREE guys at the 4 and 5 spots that I felt were all-ACC caliber and met or exceeded expectations coming in -- those three are Brand, Boozer and Shelden Williams. Granted, those three are all generational talents, but outside of those guys, I've always perceived our big guys to either be marginalized or simply not reach the expectations of their high school hype. There is a pattern, and I'll leave it at that. And I am not really talking about going on to NBA success here - I am talking about getting players that can develop into a team like our 2010 team that just killed people on the boards, and, frankly, was tough. So much of that was Lance and Zoubs, as we've come to find out.

There is definitely a stigma/misconception/reality depending on your point of view, that we are a guard oriented school and not the place you want to go if you are big man, especially a one and done player. But give me one guy per class like Kenny Frease, Arnett Moultrie, Yancy Gates, those tall dudes on St. Mary's 2 years ago, DeJuan Wagner, Greg Echineque, Quincy Acy, Jordan Williams, etc. etc. I don't care if their game doesn't translate to the NBA. I want dudes that kill the boards on both ends. You know -- the way Miles played about once a month.

Anyway, these are the reasons why I would love, love, love to get Tony Parker, and am completely enamored with his game and size. I get that he may end up being more Renardo Sydney than a taller version of DeJuan Blair (my favorite non-Duke/Texas player of the last 10 years), but the potential for him to kill it on the boards is there. I don't have a good feeling about getting TP to a "Yes," but man I'd love to see that guy in a Duke uniform.

Edited to add -- I admittedly and embarassingly made my own point in the first paragraph, and should have added Lance Thomas and Zoubs to that laundry list of other players, I guess. But I also think that Duke team was one of the most unique teams, title or not, since K has been there. Repeat that formula please.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Does anyone know how the 2012 recruiting class compares with 2011's class and 2013's recruiting class? For instance, Murphy was top 15 for 2012 but was much further down in the 2011 class. Is that simply because he was a year behind the senior class or was 2011 that much deeper? Just wondering how Amile, Tony, and Shabazz would compare with last year's class and next year's class? Perhaps that would help put in perspective just how vital/impactful we could expect them to be if they came to Duke next year or if we should be more interested in the talent pool available in 2013.

[tommy]

I hate Uconn as much as the next guy, but I am flat out jealous of the guys they have put into the league.

Really? Why? Here is the list of ex-UConn players currently in the league, in reverse chronological order:

Kemba Walker - having a nice rookie year, 12 ppg in 27 minutes, shooting 37%

Jeff Adrien - has played in 31 games in two years for two different teams. Not long for the league.

Hasheem Thabeet - alltime bust as #2 pick overall. Lucky he's still in the league. Career average is 2 ppg.

AJ Price - backup guard for Indiana; gets 15 min per game. Was a second rounder.

Rudy Gay - solid. 18 ppg career average over 6 years with Grizz. Very good player.

Charlie Villanueva - former lottery pick is a rotation guy, with his 3rd (losing) team in 7 years. Just a guy.

Emeka Okafor - 2nd overall pick is a good NBA rebounder (10 per) but just OK as a scorer (13 ppg). Not a star.

Ben Gordon - one dimensional player scores well (16 ppg over 8 yrs, dipped to 11 last year) but doesn't do anything else. 43% career shooter.

Caron Butler - solid player, averaged 16 ppg over his 9 years with 5 teams. Good complimentary player, starter quality.

Richard Hamilton - longtime shooter for Pistons, averaged 17.5 over 12 years. Very good, though not elite, 2-guard. In other words, not a Ray Allen.

Ray Allen - all-time great 2-guard, great 3 point stroke, averaged 20 ppg over 15 years, and has a championship.


Add it up: one great player -- Ray Allen. Several very good ones: Hamilton, Butler, Gay. A few pretty good ones: Gordon, Okafor. I'm not overwhelmed.

And here's a partial list of guys who sure seemed good in a Connecticut uniform but never made it in the pros at all, or not for very long if at all: Stanley Robinson, Hilton Armstrong (he may still be in the league), Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, Denham Brown, Jake Voskuhl, Khalid El-Amin, Travis Knight, Donny Marshall, and then there's Donyell Marshall, Scott Burrell and Tate George (they at least hung around for awhile, I'll give them that.)

So what's to be jealous of? Duke has had way more guys in the league, and way more solid NBA players over the last 15 years or so than has UConn.

[Greg_Newton]

Some highlights of 2013 PG target Anthony Barber winning the VA state championship (love the quickness at 1:50): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGqm_lEq2QY

[heyman25]

April 5. Coach K better be in touch with Barber. Waiting on Tyus Jones is a huge gamble.Our recruiting talent is reaching a critical stage if Duke wants to compete with UK, UNC, Kansas, Ohio State, Michigan State and Syracuse in the future.

[DUKIE V(A)]

April 5. Coach K better be in touch with Barber. Waiting on Tyus Jones is a huge gamble.Our recruiting talent is reaching a critical stage if Duke wants to compete with UK, UNC, Kansas, Ohio State, Michigan State and Syracuse in the future.

Haven't seen Tyus Jones but Barber looks pretty special to me. So quick, great handle.

[CDu]

Since I've been paying attention to Duke recruiting (about 18 years), Duke has had exactly THREE guys at the 4 and 5 spots that I felt were all-ACC caliber and met or exceeded expectations coming in -- those three are Brand, Boozer and Shelden Williams. Granted, those three are all generational talents, but outside of those guys, I've always perceived our big guys to either be marginalized or simply not reach the expectations of their high school hype. There is a pattern, and I'll leave it at that. And I am not really talking about going on to NBA success here - I am talking about getting players that can develop into a team like our 2010 team that just killed people on the boards, and, frankly, was tough. So much of that was Lance and Zoubs, as we've come to find out.

There is definitely a stigma/misconception/reality depending on your point of view, that we are a guard oriented school and not the place you want to go if you are big man, especially a one and done player. But give me one guy per class like Kenny Frease, Arnett Moultrie, Yancy Gates, those tall dudes on St. Mary's 2 years ago, DeJuan Wagner, Greg Echineque, Quincy Acy, Jordan Williams, etc. etc. I don't care if their game doesn't translate to the NBA. I want dudes that kill the boards on both ends. You know -- the way Miles played about once a month.

I think you meant DeJuan Blair. Wagner was a small guard for Memphis. That said, I do agree that the perception exists regarding our lack of development of big men. I can't remember the last big that exceeded expectations, and as you said most fell a bit short of expectations. Part of that is because when you're recruiting McDonald's All Americans, the bar is set high. But the math is pretty clear - very few post guys have produced for us above role player level over the past 15-20 years. And despite getting tons of top 20-30 recruits, guys like Boateng, Sanders, Randolph, Thomas, Zoubek, Burgess, and McRoberts either fell just a bit short or well short of expectations based on their recruit ratings (some of which may have been off to begin with, but that doesn't change the perception).

And with the exception of a month or two of Zoubek's senior year and a few weeks of Miles's senior year, we haven't had that beastly rebounder like we had with Brand, Boozer, and Williams. And even in the cases of Zoubek and Miles, the perception is that those guys just set screens, got rebounds, and passed it out to the guards (which is, in some degree, accurate).


Anyway, these are the reasons why I would love, love, love to get Tony Parker, and am completely enamored with his game and size. I get that he may end up being more Renardo Sydney than a taller version of DeJuan Blair (my favorite non-Duke/Texas player of the last 10 years), but the potential for him to kill it on the boards is there. I don't have a good feeling about getting TP to a "Yes," but man I'd love to see that guy in a Duke uniform.

I would say that I'd like the idea of what Parker could bring. But it doesn't sound like he actually has the motor to make that happen. It's hard to find guys like Reggie Johnson, Blair, Sullinger, Williams (Jordan or Shelden), May, etc because you're probably just as likely to wind up with a guy like Nigel Dixon. Finding really big, strong, physical, tenacious rebounders is tough to do. Those other guys weren't great rebounders just because of their size. They were great rebounders because of their desire to get the ball (which is arguably the single most important attribute in rebounding). And tenacity doesn't seem to be the first thing that comes to mind with Parker.

[Kedsy]

I would say that I'd like the idea of what Parker could bring. But it doesn't sound like he actually has the motor to make that happen. It's hard to find guys like Reggie Johnson, Blair, Sullinger, Williams (Jordan or Shelden), May, etc because you're probably just as likely to wind up with a guy like Nigel Dixon. Finding really big, strong, physical, tenacious rebounders is tough to do. Those other guys weren't great rebounders just because of their size. They were great rebounders because of their desire to get the ball (which is arguably the single most important attribute in rebounding). And tenacity doesn't seem to be the first thing that comes to mind with Parker.

UCLA's Josh Smith. #18 in the RSCI two years ago. A lot of DBR posters were desperate for K to land him. He went 11 and 6 his freshman year and 10 and 5 this year. Decent numbers, but if he'd come here and done that, he'd be used as another example of us not developing a big man.

My guess is Tony Parker is no better than Smith and will not perform significantly better, no matter where he goes.

[CDu]

UCLA's Josh Smith. #18 in the RSCI two years ago. A lot of DBR posters were desperate for K to land him. He went 11 and 6 his freshman year and 10 and 5 this year. Decent numbers, but if he'd come here and done that, he'd be used as another example of us not developing a big man.

My guess is Tony Parker is no better than Smith and will not perform significantly better, no matter where he goes.

Yeah, Josh Smith is a perfect example. Renardo Sydney is another example, though he had a very solid sophomore year before really declining this year. Being a "space eater" isn't simply an issue of bulk. You also need the desire to use that space.

I hate to speculate on Parker given how little I've seen of him. But based on what little I know, it seems like you might be right.

[Jderf]

UCLA's Josh Smith. #18 in the RSCI two years ago. A lot of DBR posters were desperate for K to land him. He went 11 and 6 his freshman year and 10 and 5 this year. Decent numbers, but if he'd come here and done that, he'd be used as another example of us not developing a big man.

My guess is Tony Parker is no better than Smith and will not perform significantly better, no matter where he goes.

This is probably the greatest irony about our current situation. Let's say that the pro-Parker folks on the board get their wish, and Tony stuns everyone and ultimately decides to come to Duke. What happens next?

I'd bet it would actually end up hurting our reputation anyway, and that our "perception problem" would become even worse!

Because, and I think that many would agree, the most likely course of events following TP's commitment would be this: Tony comes to Duke and has a decent, but not stellar, freshman year. Let's be optimistic and say he racks up 10 ppg and 5 rpg, in 20 minutes. If that happened (or even worse, if Tony came up short of that), our detractors would be all over it. Seriously. "Another promising, top-50 post player goes to Duke, only to disappear into mediocrity!"

Of course, they would be wrong. They would be ignorant. They would be setting up false expectations, a prototypical strawman argument, only so they could knock those expectations down. So yes, they would be very far off-base. But that wouldn't matter, because they would still be saying it nonetheless. Repeatedly. En masse. They would have yet another (bad) reason to point a finger at Duke and show everyone "how far we have fallen."

Basically, I'm saying that no matter how this situation plays out, whether Duke ends up "winning" or "losing," people are going to claim that it is just further evidence of a crumbling empire. For the very simple reason that they just don't like us. They will still be wrong. And we will still be annoyed. And that's just what is gonna' happen. It's like a bad movie where you know exactly how it is going to end but you have to watch anyway -- only thing you can do is make sure you've got enough popcorn.

[NashvilleDevil]

Our recruiting talent is reaching a critical stage if Duke wants to compete with UK, UNC, Kansas, Ohio State, Michigan State and Syracuse in the future.

2 years after winning a national title. One year after having the #1 pick in the draft play at Duke. This year Duke beat UNC, Kansas and Michigan St and you think Duke is at a crossroads in getting recruits to come to Duke?

[Bob Green]

UCLA's Josh Smith. #18 in the RSCI two years ago. A lot of DBR posters were desperate for K to land him. He went 11 and 6 his freshman year and 10 and 5 this year. Decent numbers, but if he'd come here and done that, he'd be used as another example of us not developing a big man.

My guess is Tony Parker is no better than Smith and will not perform significantly better, no matter where he goes.

Josh Smith continues to struggle with conditioning. He only played 17.2 mpg this season after going for 21.7 as a freshman. Although foul trouble contributed to some of his playing time woes, the 305 pounds he carries around was a bigger factor.

I agree our situation with big men has turned into a damned if you do, damned if don't situation. Mason Plumlee averaged 11.1 ppg and 9.2 rpg, but some fans/media members/recruitniks act like he is a stiff. Big men who average right at a double-double at the Div 1 level do not grow on trees.

[Kedsy]

Basically, I'm saying that no matter how this situation plays out, whether Duke ends up "winning" or "losing," people are going to claim that it is just further evidence of a crumbling empire. For the very simple reason that they just don't like us.

The sad thing is that a good many of the people who say this sort of thing are Duke fans (and DBR posters). What's the very simple reason that they say it?

[Kedsy]

Josh Smith continues to struggle with conditioning.

There's always a reason. With Parker, it could be as simple as he'll be a freshman who wasn't college-ready enough to be a top ten recruit.


I agree our situation with big men has turned into a damned if you do, damned if don't situation. Mason Plumlee averaged 11.1 ppg and 9.2 rpg, but some fans/media members/recruitniks act like he is a stiff. Big men who average right at a double-double at the Div 1 level do not grow on trees.

This year, our three bigs went 11 and 9; 12 and 5; and 7 and 7. This is supposedly evidence that we don't develop bigs. Ultimately, the only way anyone would admit that Duke did a good job with a big is if he went 15 and 9 or better, and then people would say he was just that good and Duke's coaching staff had little to do with his achievement. Pretty much anything short of that and it will be piled on to the myth. And, bottom line, Tony Parker is unlikely to go 15 and 9, and if he does it won't be before his junior or senior seasons.

[yancem]

Josh Smith continues to struggle with conditioning. He only played 17.2 mpg this season after going for 21.7 as a freshman. Although foul trouble contributed to some of his playing time woes, the 305 pounds he carries around was a bigger factor.

I agree our situation with big men has turned into a damned if you do, damned if don't situation. Mason Plumlee averaged 11.1 ppg and 9.2 rpg, but some fans/media members/recruitniks act like he is a stiff. Big men who average right at a double-double at the Div 1 level do not grow on trees.

TP is a big guy that has also had some conditioning issues (although I don't think to the same degree as Smith) and I have heard a few rumors that suggest that he isn't the hardest working/most motivated guy. So if he chooses Duke (or anywhere else for that matter) is it not possible (if not probable) that TP turns out to be more Smith then Sullinger?

[Kedsy]

So if he chooses Duke (or anywhere else for that matter) is it not possible (if not probable) that TP turns out to be more Smith then Sullinger?

Whether or not he echoes Smith's results, Parker should be a lot closer to Smith than Sullinger. I know recruiting rankings are not the be-all, end-all, but they mean something. Sullinger was a top three recruit, and Smith was a top 20. Latest RSCI has Parker at #22.

[bob blue devil]

i worry a bit about TP and what would happen if he did come to duke given the alleged (and seemingly actual) negative recruiting that's gone on. i'm sure he's hearing how well he will do in everybody's system and how they'll get him into the nba. but if he performs like a typical 20th ranked recruit at a top program, that means coming off the bench as a frosh and improving over 4 years to become a great college player (granted the variance around this outcome is huge). how would TP handle such a situation? coming off the bench freshman year, would he believe he's not being utilized as he should be? if he's not on a path to the nba, will he believe the system is to blame and become a malcontent? remember, he had a dozen other coaches telling him they would make this happen (with more or less definitive language depending on each coach's desperation level and morals).

i know this problem isn't special to TP, but it may be more accute given the path he's gone down. getting someone to buy into a program is very important, and TP's comments simply make it look like he doesn't buy into duke (or his buy-in is shallow and easily altered).

[Jderf]

The sad thing is that a good many of the people who say this sort of thing are Duke fans (and DBR posters). What's the very simple reason that they say it?

There are probably a lot of reasons.

One of them could be that there is a small grain of truth to those assertions, as much as we hate to admit it. Duke hasn't successfully recruited a blockbuster big man in a few years, and when you compare the recent track record to what we have had in the past, it seems superficially convincing. So people say, "Duke can't recruit big men anymore." Which is ludicrous, because our recruiting has been great. We have had a slew of big men come through the program in the last 5-7 years, with a healthy dose of McD AAs in the mix. But we haven't had that Boozer/Brand/Williams-level headliner in a while, and that's what the casual fans see. And most fans are casual fans. So they say that Duke doesn't produce NBA-talent bigs anymore, and they don't take the care or time to point out that no one else does, either.

And this feeds into the second reason, which might even be the bigger reason. We've heard the "Duke can't recruit bigs" sentiment so often, from so many different people, for so long, that it just becomes ingrained. Most people do not obsess over these things like we do (nor should they), and so they are more susceptible to buy into these things. At this point we've been hearing it for years, and when Duke people mention it now, it is always with an unfortunate tinge of desperation. Sadly, I don't see it going away any time soon.

[G man]

We forget sometimes that recruiting is cyclical in nature. We have been red hot before and we will be red hot again, but right now it feels like we are in a bit of a down turn. This happens sometimes and it will happen again. It is just how recruiting is.

[Kedsy]

We forget sometimes that recruiting is cyclical in nature. We have been red hot before and we will be red hot again, but right now it feels like we are in a bit of a down turn. This happens sometimes and it will happen again. It is just how recruiting is.

You mean for big men? Because I think in general we've been pretty red hot.

Based on RSCI, here are the rankings of our top 40 recruits for the past 14 years:

2012: Final RSCI not out yet, but Rasheed Sulaimon was #17 in the summer and is rising by most accounts; Alex Murphy was around #15 before he re-classified.
2011: #2, #28, #31
2010: #2, #32 (plus Andre Dawkins, who was around #15 before he re-classified)
2009: #14, #18
2008: #15
2007: #5, #19, #24
2006: #10, #20, #25, #28
2005: #1, #13, #39
2004: #18 (plus Livingston, who was #2 but after committing to Duke decided to go direct to NBA)
2003: #2 (plus Humphreys, who was #10 but asked for and received his release after he committed)
2002: #8, #11, #14, #21, #30
2001: #29
2000: #7
1999: #3, #8, #16, #26

So, where's the downturn?

[Greg_Newton]

Haven't seen Tyus Jones but Barber looks pretty special to me. So quick, great handle.

Here are some more highlights of Barber from his recent AAA VA state championship run. This kid's officially my new recruit-crush...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRmcZ6bXWBw&t=0m56s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r16pcplsUs8 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r16pcplsUs8)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAkhvyuH66M

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7WU-XxSTlY&t=1m24s

And this is about the quickest lateral defensive slide (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc9jfjdyTb8&t=1m3s) I've ever seen in my life...

Oh, and if you're wondering how he feels about Duke (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPU75y2ZukY&t=1m20s)...

[Bob Green]

So, where's the downturn?

Playing the role of Devil's Advocate, the downturn is in the details. As you state, Livingston and Humphreys never showed up. In 2005, #1 McRoberts didn't turn out to be all that and neither did Paulus (#13? I don't remember), 2003 #2 Luol Deng went to the NBA after one season, 2009 #14 and #18 haven't led us to the promise land, 2010 #2 Kyrie Irving played a whopping 11 whole games as a Blue Devil, and 2011 #2 Austin Rivers is widely expected to bolt to the NBA. Probably the hardest fact to swallow is 2002 recruits J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams have their jerseys hanging in the rafters, but no accompanying National Championship banner.

So, Duke fans are spoiled (and I include myself in that general statement as much as I whine about remembering the bad old days and 1974 etc...). We won it all in 2001 and 2010 plus we were in the Final Four in 2004, but we choose to focus upon the shortcomings of the program to include: 1st Round losses in 2007 and 2012, and Sweet 16 losses in 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2011.

We want it all and we want it every year. Making it to the Sweet 16 isn't good enough. Sad when you think about it.

[Kedsy]

We want it all and we want it every year. Making it to the Sweet 16 isn't good enough. Sad when you think about it.

Well, I agree that it's sad. But when you're talking about recruiting, I don't see how the future stuff can legitimately be part of the conversation. After all, we have no idea how any of this year's (or next year's or the year after's, etc.) recruits are going to pan out. People are simply lusting after the top guys. And my point is we've gotten plenty of top guys and if you look at who we successfully recruited, there doesn't seem to be any kind of sustained or even noticeable lull.

[A-Tex Devil]

I think you meant DeJuan Blair. Wagner was a small guard for Memphis. That said, I do agree that the perception exists regarding our lack of development of big men. I can't remember the last big that exceeded expectations, and as you said most fell a bit short of expectations. Part of that is because when you're recruiting McDonald's All Americans, the bar is set high. But the math is pretty clear - very few post guys have produced for us above role player level over the past 15-20 years. And despite getting tons of top 20-30 recruits, guys like Boateng, Sanders, Randolph, Thomas, Zoubek, Burgess, and McRoberts either fell just a bit short or well short of expectations based on their recruit ratings (some of which may have been off to begin with, but that doesn't change the perception).


You are right. I will call DeJuan Blair DeJuan Wagner for as long as I live. Can't break the stupid habit. Although DaJuan (with 2 "a's") Wagner had a game not unlike that of our current freshman SG who may leave early, so there is the connection, I guess.

I think Duke "big man" recruiting has suffered the same problems as Texas "O-Line" recruiting has. Not that anyone here cares, but they are parallel. Texas' O-Line has struggled because they've recruited guys that were stud juniors, who were coached well, generally sound in the fundamentals, and highly ranked by recruiting services. When they get to college, all of the 3 star d-lineman that are finally getting good coaching in college are ripping them to shreds, and the o-lineman that are successful are the raw athletes that maybe didn't know exactly what they were doing in high school, and the game tape showed that.

If you look at where a lot of Duke big men have come from, they've played for well run and coached up programs (often systems), were dominant in high school, and were highly ranked in the recruiting services.

What happens when they get to college? Well, the fact is, they peaked in high school. They are still solid to good. But the guys behind them, that maybe played in a lesser high school league, or weren't as coached up other than on the AAU circuit, or were raw, finally get that focussed coaching and training (include in the weightroom) in college (which, for this argument, is no better or worse than what kids get at Duke), and peak in college. That's why guys like Mike Scott and Derrick Williams, who we never even sniffed at, torch our McD AA's. They peaked later, and their peak was higher.

Now you'll say "What about Boateng and Sanders," and you'd be right. And guys like Scott and Williams are needles in a haystack of 6'7" to 6'10" players all across the country averaging 5 points and 4 rebounds a game. But I hope, and I'm pretty sure, that our talent evaluation process is itself being evaluated.

This may come off as negative on our players, and I don't mean it to. The fact is that we have taken a lot of players that have peaked, relative to their peers, in high school. I know we are "Duke" and all, and we only give scholarships to the very best, but I *pine* for that day where that lower rated guy we take a flyer on to add depth ends up being that diamond in the rough that others often find.

[Bob Green]

But when you're talking about recruiting, I don't see how the future stuff can legitimately be part of the conversation. After all, we have no idea how any of this year's (or next year's or the year after's, etc.) recruits are going to pan out.

You've hit the nail on the head. All recruiting analysis is revisionism at its finest. Hindsight is 20/20 and all that. I should have bought Microsoft at its IPO in 1986, but I didn't. Duke should have won the National Championship after bringing in the #1 ranked recruiting class in 2005, but they didn't. Obviously, I'm not a good investor and Coach K can't recruit.

[CDu]

Well, I agree that it's sad. But when you're talking about recruiting, I don't see how the future stuff can legitimately be part of the conversation. After all, we have no idea how any of this year's (or next year's or the year after's, etc.) recruits are going to pan out. People are simply lusting after the top guys. And my point is we've gotten plenty of top guys and if you look at who we successfully recruited, there doesn't seem to be any kind of sustained or even noticeable lull.

I completely agree that we've not seen any significant dropoff in recruiting based on the major recruiting services. I guess the one argument that still holds over the past 9 years is that we haven't done as well with the types of players that have typically made us elite. We haven't gotten the low-post banger and space eater (e.g. Brand, Boozer, and Williams) since we landed Williams. We haven't hit it big with an athletic star forward since we got Deng, and Deng left early. And of the two truly elite PG we signed since Duhon committed, one never came (Livingston) and the other got hurt and played only a dozen games before leaving early (Irving).

So it's not so much that we haven't been able to land elite prospects. It's just that the type of prospects haven't fit the mold of what has made for some of our more dominant teams (phenomenal PG, tall athletic wings, athletic and versatile PF, and/or a space eating monster big man). We've gotten the shooters in spades, for sure. It's the elite "athletes" and the elite dominant big men that we've been missing on.

Some of that is by design: we seem to identify and connect with shooters. And we seem to land those guys at a very high rate. So in that sense, it may be more an issue of targeting a different style of recruit?

[Kedsy]

Looking at next year, if Austin leaves and we don't get Shabazz, next season will be the first season in a long time that we don't have a top 10 recruit on the roster.

HIGEST RATED RECRUIT ON THE ROSTER:

1998: 1 (maybe 3)
1999: 1 (maybe 3)
2000: 3
2001: 3
2002: 3
2003: 8
2004: 2
2005: 8
2006: 1
2007: 1
2008: 5
2009: 5
2010: 5
2011: 2
2012: 2

Before 1998, I don't have access to the rankings. If Trajan Langdon was a top 10 recruit (he started in 1995), then the streak goes even further back. He sat out in 1996, though, and I'm not sure if anyone on that 1996 team would have been top 10. Grant Hill from 1991 to 1994 certainly was top 10. I didn't analyze any rosters before that.

Next season, without Austin or Shabazz, our top guy will either be Ryan Kelly (#14) or Rasheed Sulaimon (depending on his final ranking). If Rasheed breaks into the top 10 (he's currently #12 on Scout and #14 on ESPN) then the streak will remain alive. Or, obviously, if Austin stays or Shabazz chooses us.

[NSDukeFan]

You mean for big men? Because I think in general we've been pretty red hot.

Based on RSCI, here are the rankings of our top 40 recruits for the past 14 years:

2012: Final RSCI not out yet, but Rasheed Sulaimon was #17 in the summer and is rising by most accounts; Alex Murphy was around #15 before he re-classified.
2011: #2, #28, #31
2010: #2, #32 (plus Andre Dawkins, who was around #15 before he re-classified)
2009: #14, #18
2008: #15
2007: #5, #19, #24
2006: #10, #20, #25, #28
2005: #1, #13, #39
2004: #18 (plus Livingston, who was #2 but after committing to Duke decided to go direct to NBA)
2003: #2 (plus Humphreys, who was #10 but asked for and received his release after he committed)
2002: #8, #11, #14, #21, #30
2001: #29
2000: #7
1999: #3, #8, #16, #26

So, where's the downturn?
I hope the coaching staff can continue on this downturn.


Playing the role of Devil's Advocate, the downturn is in the details. As you state, Livingston and Humphreys never showed up. In 2005, #1 McRoberts didn't turn out to be all that and neither did Paulus (#13? I don't remember), 2003 #2 Luol Deng went to the NBA after one season, 2009 #14 and #18 haven't led us to the promise land, 2010 #2 Kyrie Irving played a whopping 11 whole games as a Blue Devil, and 2011 #2 Austin Rivers is widely expected to bolt to the NBA. Probably the hardest fact to swallow is 2002 recruits J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams have their jerseys hanging in the rafters, but no accompanying National Championship banner.

So, Duke fans are spoiled (and I include myself in that general statement as much as I whine about remembering the bad old days and 1974 etc...). We won it all in 2001 and 2010 plus we were in the Final Four in 2004, but we choose to focus upon the shortcomings of the program to include: 1st Round losses in 2007 and 2012, and Sweet 16 losses in 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2011.

We want it all and we want it every year. Making it to the Sweet 16 isn't good enough. Sad when you think about it.

If making the sweet 16 isn't good enough, there will be an awful lot of disappointment. Duke has the best tournament record of the past 20 years, but there is no program that finishes the one-and-done NCAA tournament in the top 8 every year.
One other small point, although you are correct that 2009 #14 and #18 haven't led the team to the promised land, they do have rings from being part of a team that did reach the promised land. Also, in your role as Devil's Advocate, is there anything that the coaching staff should be blamed for or not gotten credit for based on what happened in the details?

[G man]

You mean for big men? Because I think in general we've been pretty red hot.

Based on RSCI, here are the rankings of our top 40 recruits for the past 14 years:

2012: Final RSCI not out yet, but Rasheed Sulaimon was #17 in the summer and is rising by most accounts; Alex Murphy was around #15 before he re-classified.
2011: #2, #28, #31
2010: #2, #32 (plus Andre Dawkins, who was around #15 before he re-classified)
2009: #14, #18
2008: #15
2007: #5, #19, #24
2006: #10, #20, #25, #28
2005: #1, #13, #39
2004: #18 (plus Livingston, who was #2 but after committing to Duke decided to go direct to NBA)
2003: #2 (plus Humphreys, who was #10 but asked for and received his release after he committed)
2002: #8, #11, #14, #21, #30
2001: #29
2000: #7
1999: #3, #8, #16, #26

So, where's the downturn?

Yes I meant in terms of bigs.

[Kedsy]

I guess the one argument that still holds over the past 9 years is that we haven't done as well with the types of players that have typically made us elite. We haven't gotten the low-post banger and space eater (e.g. Brand, Boozer, and Williams) since we landed Williams.

Well, I would argue that we were pretty elite in the 1986 to 1994 timeframe without ever having a low-post banger and space eater. Not only that, while our success in the Brand/Boozer/Williams era (9 years, 89% #1 or #2 seeds, 33% Final Fours, 11% championships) was a little better than since Williams left (6 years, 83% #1 or #2 seeds, 17% Final Fours, 17% championships), it wasn't that much better. And to the extent that it was better, I'd look at guys like Jason Williams and Shane Battier to explain it rather than Boozer and Williams.


We haven't hit it big with an athletic star forward since we got Deng, and Deng left early.

I gather Kyle Singler wasn't athletic enough for you, but he was a big wing forward who was #5 in his class. Gerald Henderson wasn't tall, but he was a very athletic wing. Elliot Williams was also an athletic wing. Also, Josh McRoberts was an athletic PF who was #1 in his class. The Plumlees are athletic PFs.


And of the two truly elite PG we signed since Duhon committed, one never came (Livingston) and the other got hurt and played only a dozen games before leaving early (Irving).

So it's not so much that we haven't been able to land elite prospects. It's just that the type of prospects haven't fit the mold of what has made for some of our more dominant teams (phenomenal PG, tall athletic wings, athletic and versatile PF, and/or a space eating monster big man). We've gotten the shooters in spades, for sure. It's the elite "athletes" and the elite dominant big men that we've been missing on.

Some of that is by design: we seem to identify and connect with shooters. And we seem to land those guys at a very high rate. So in that sense, it may be more an issue of targeting a different style of recruit?

I don't know. I just think that when people say our recruiting has taken a "downturn" they're way off base. They seem to really mean we lost in the NCAA tournament, and in the wake of our pain they hate that some recruits had the nerve to say no to us.

[Bob Green]

If making the sweet 16 isn't good enough, there will be an awful lot of disappointment. Duke has the best tournament record of the past 20 years, but there is no program that finishes the one-and-done NCAA tournament in the top 8 every year.
One other small point, although you are correct that 2009 #14 and #18 haven't led the team to the promised land, they do have rings from being part of a team that did reach the promised land. Also, in your role as Devil's Advocate, is there anything that the coaching staff should be blamed for or not gotten credit for based on what happened in the details?

I don't agree with anything I posted above (except that I am spoiled like everyone else), but was simply playing the role of the vocal minority who insist we have an issue with recruiting. I believe the staff has done a tremendous job and will continue to bring quality recruits into the program.

[Kedsy]

Yes I meant in terms of bigs.

Well, in that case, rather than say we had a downturn in recruiting bigs, I'd suggest we simply didn't continue our lucky streak of the late 90s/early 00s. Because it's not like we were successfully recruiting Brand, Boozer, S Williams type bigs before 1997, and I'm not sure 3 guys constitutes a legitimate trend.

[NSDukeFan]

I don't agree with anything I posted above (except that I am spoiled like everyone else), but was simply playing the role of the vocal minority who insist we have an issue with recruiting. I believe the staff has done a tremendous job and will continue to bring quality recruits into the program.

I agree completely.

[COYS]

Well, in that case, rather than say we had a downturn in recruiting bigs, I'd suggest we simply didn't continue our lucky streak of the late 90s/early 00s. Because it's not like we were successfully recruiting Brand, Boozer, S Williams type bigs before 1997, and I'm not sure 3 guys constitutes a legitimate trend.

Plus lots of points for this. People act like the Brands, Boozers, and Williams of every class should always join Duke. But in reality, Duke was lucky to have a streak from 1998 to 2006 where we had an All-American caliber forward manning the paint. McRoberts was the other top recruit who could have continued that trend except he fell short of extremely high expectations. I can't think of a team that had that much skill pass through their program in the post over an 8 year period. Ohio State is on a nice run with Oden, Koufas, Mullens, and Sullinger, but even that dates back to 2006, but early entries have reduced the effect that group has had on the program. Kentucky is on a pretty good run, too, starting with Patrick Patterson and including Cousins, Jones, and Davis, but they still have a ways to go. UNC has had May, Hansbrough, Zeller, Davis (and Davis was a bit disappointing, whether that's fair or not), Henson (who also has taken a while to become elite), and MacAdoo which actually is probably the closest to Duke's run, and might even be a bit better considering that group stretches back to 2003. Even then, the best of that bunch isn't as good as Brand (and I would argue Boozer, too). Anyway, suffice it to say that Duke got very lucky from Brand to Williams. McRoberts never met expectations, but in terms of rankings, we had an elite big man in the post for 10 straight seasons. This success created ridiculous expectations for every big man who came to Duke after Williams. Brand was NPOY. Williams was NDPOY and an All-American. Boozer was easily first team All American Caliber and has been an NBA All Star. McRoberts, Zoubek, Thomas, and Mason (who was never ranked as high as our biggest stars in the post) have all had to either match those or "underperform." If UNC's next few big men aren't quite as good, I wonder if you'll hear similar complaints from the Hole faithful.

[superdave]

Shun Williams ‏ @OntheRadarHoops
The Duke staff is over at Miller Grove (GA) @MillerGroveHoop checking in on 2012 PF Tony Parker @tonyparker32 per a source
Retweeted by tony parker

[dcdevil2009]

Could it be that our "problems" are due in part to the one and done rule? Even though we've had similarly ranked recruits before and after the rule was implemented, guys we aren't getting are going to other schools instead of the NBA. Before the rule, we might get the 10th ranked player in a class, but he's really the 5th ranked freshman. Now, the #10 ranking is actually the 10th ranked freshman. The other side of it is that if a recruit doesn't live up to his rankings, it gets spun as "School ___ can't develop talent" where in the past, that guy would be drafted out of high school based on potential and any letdown would be blamed on the player instead of the team drafting him.

Not to pick on Mason (18 in the final RSCI, 10th PF/C) but without the one and done rule, he'd probably have been the 7th ranked college bound big (Cousins, Favors, and Sidney would have gone pro; I'm not sure what Henson would have done). Based on what he's done in three years, without the OaD rule, he's probably the 3rd best big in his class behind Henson and Robinson.

[sagegrouse]

People act like the Brands, Boozers, and Williams of every class should always join Duke. But in reality, Duke was lucky to have a streak from 1998 to 2006 where we had an All-American caliber forward manning the paint.

Or, is it the other way around?

I think it was more than luck. After K's absence and the clear inadequacies of some of the recruits who entered in 1992 and 1993, K decided to upgrade the recruiting. Moreover, Duke was clearly the #1 program. The classes that entered in 1997 (Brand, Battier, Burgess, Avery), 1999 (JWill, Boozer, and Dunleavy, and, yes, Horvath, Sanders and Buckner), and 1992 (JJ, Shel, Shav, Dockery, Melchionni and Michael Thompson) were incredible. And, sure, there were disappointments, but then who thought JJ was gonna be NPOY when he showed up? These classes were, I believe, the best in the country.

I am not sure we have done as well since, but I am happy to support whoever shows up in uniform.

sage
'It also helps that UNC was not as formidable a recruiting force then and that GT and State had receded a good bit'

[Steven43]

Or, is it the other way around?

I think it was more than luck. After K's absence and the clear inadequacies of some of the recruits who entered in 1992 and 1993, K decided to upgrade the recruiting. Moreover, Duke was clearly the #1 program. The classes that entered in 1997 (Brand, Battier, Burgess, Avery), 1999 (JWill, Boozer, and Dunleavy, and, yes, Horvath, Sanders and Buckner), and 1992 (JJ, Shel, Shav, Dockery, Melchionni and Michael Thompson) were incredible. And, sure, there were disappointments, but then who thought JJ was gonna be NPOY when he showed up? These classes were, I believe, the best in the country.

I am not sure we have done as well since, but I am happy to support whoever shows up in uniform.

sage
'It also helps that UNC was not as formidable a recruiting force then and that GT and State had receded a good bit'

UNC was not as formidable a recruiting force then? Is that really true? It seems that they have had top-level recruits for at least the last 40 years. If a lot of their players that ended up becoming very good, or even great, college players were not top recruits, then they have done an amazing job of coaching them up, as they have had as many good college players as any program the past four decades.

[CDu]

Well, I would argue that we were pretty elite in the 1986 to 1994 timeframe without ever having a low-post banger and space eater. Not only that, while our success in the Brand/Boozer/Williams era (9 years, 89% #1 or #2 seeds, 33% Final Fours, 11% championships) was a little better than since Williams left (6 years, 83% #1 or #2 seeds, 17% Final Fours, 17% championships), it wasn't that much better. And to the extent that it was better, I'd look at guys like Jason Williams and Shane Battier to explain it rather than Boozer and Williams.

A few things:
1. The success from 1998-2006 (8 #1 seeds and a #3 seed in 9 years, 7 ACC Championships) is much better than the success in the last 6 years (2 #1 seeds, 3 #2 seeds, and a #6 seed, 3 ACC Championships)
2. 1986-1994 was an entirely different era of basketball, when players stayed 4 years and the game was called much differently than it is today.
3. Those teams from 1991-1994 made up for it by being exceptionally strong in some of the other areas: elite PG and tall, athletic forwards.
4. Those teams also had a major trump card: a transcendent talent that stayed for four years. If you have a Dawkins, Ferry, Laettner, or Grant Hill, you can mask a lot of deficiencies elsewhere.


I gather Kyle Singler wasn't athletic enough for you, but he was a big wing forward who was #5 in his class. Gerald Henderson wasn't tall, but he was a very athletic wing. Elliot Williams was also an athletic wing. Also, Josh McRoberts was an athletic PF who was #1 in his class. The Plumlees are athletic PFs.

At the college level the Plumlees and McRoberts are/were athletic C, not PF. They lacked the quickness of the athletic PFs at the college level. In fact, while all were extremely gifted leapers, they actually combined the traits that are perhaps problematic: not really quick enough to defend the 4, but not really interested in/comfortable with the post up game either. I'd say that guys like Singler, Thomas, and perhaps even Murphy more accurately embody what I mean by athletic PF - quickness as opposed to leaping ability.

Elliot Williams and Henderson are conceptually exactly the type of guy we'd like to see more of. Unfortunately, Williams played only one year, and for much of that one year he was buried on the bench. Henderson was terrific as a junior. Unfortunately, he took a long time to develop and we didn't combine him with an elite PG (Scheyer didn't really fill that role until the next year) or a space eating monster inside. I'd argue that with him and Williams were just off-timed. So again, both fall under the "bad luck" category.

Singler was great, and we won a National Championship with him and an elite PG and an explosive SG and an athletic versatile PF and a few bigs who were all about rebounding and defending. The one time in the last several years that we've combined elite PG play, tall, athletic wings, a versatile athletic PF, and some rebounding monsters at C, and we win a championship. Imagine that? That's EXACTLY the point. When the recruiting lines up like that, good things happen. And when you're able to recruit the right types of players more consistently, you're more likely to have things line up.

In the late-80s/early-90s and late 90s/early-00s, we were regularly churning out those athletic wings, versatile PF, and combining them with the occasional transcendent player (either at PG, C, PF, or all 3). In the early years we didn't get the rebound machines. But we added that in the later years. Now we're landing the athletic PF less and less frequently (only 2 since Battier left), the elite PG less and less frequently (only one since Duhon), and often only have a single guy in the rotation that fits the tall, athletic wing type (Dawkins and Gbinije should fit that, but Dawkins plays soft and small and Gbinije wasn't ready yet).


I don't know. I just think that when people say our recruiting has taken a "downturn" they're way off base. They seem to really mean we lost in the NCAA tournament, and in the wake of our pain they hate that some recruits had the nerve to say no to us.

I have not said our recruiting has taken a downturn. I've said our recruiting has taken a turn in terms of the types of recruits we've gotten, even though we're still landing elite prospects. And we just haven't had good luck in lining up the right needs in any particular year for the past several years (with the exception of the stars aligning in 2010).

[yancem]

UNC was not as formidable a recruiting force then? Is that really true? It seems that they have had top-level recruits for at least the last 40 years. If a lot of their players that ended up becoming very good, or even great, college players were not top recruits, then they have done an amazing job of coaching them up, as they have had as many good college players as any program the past four decades.

There were a couple of years in the late 90's when Guthridge was coach that the recruiting wasn't at unc's normal standard. It wasn't to glaring because the last couple of Smith's classed (mainly Jamison and Carter's class) kept unc at a high level for the first couple of post Smith years. The cupboard was pretty after Doh's first season though. Fortunately for unc, while Doh was a very good coach he brought in a couple of good classed and quickly got the talent level back to where is used to be (a fact that Ol'Roy definitely benefited from BTW). During those couple of off years from unc though, Duke inked the Brand, Battier, Avery, Burgess class and then followed that up with the JWill, Boozer, Dunleavy, Sanders class 2 years later.

[Kedsy]

I have not said our recruiting has taken a downturn.

I didn't mean you. Someone else said it before you.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Is anyone else feeling this 2012 class and the 2012-2013 roster is as up in the air as any in recent memory? This class and offseason could go so many different ways right now and I have no idea what would be the most ideal based on our available scholarships. Obviously I think the best would be Austin and Mason returning for another season...

So, between Tony Parker, Shabazz Muhammad, Amile Jefferson, and I'll add Trey Zeigler (not in "12 class, but could be a newcomer), what is everyone's most ideal signing to add in with Rasheed Sulaimon?

[Kedsy]

Is anyone else feeling this 2012 class and the 2012-2013 roster is as up in the air as any in recent memory? This class and offseason could go so many different ways right now and I have no idea what would be the most ideal based on our available scholarships. Obviously I think the best would be Austin and Mason returning for another season...

So, between Tony Parker, Shabazz Muhammad, Amile Jefferson, and I'll add Trey Zeigler (not in "12 class, but could be a newcomer), what is everyone's most ideal signing to add in with Rasheed Sulaimon?

Shabazz is the best player of the bunch. If it was up to me I'd go with him. Obviously recruiting doesn't work like that, though.

[CDu]

Shabazz is the best player of the bunch. If it was up to me I'd go with him. Obviously recruiting doesn't work like that, though.

Agreed. In terms of guys who can make an impact next year (which probably eliminates Zeigler altogether), I'd take Muhammad. And it isn't all that close.

And if we're going to add to the hypothetical, I'd take Oriakhi along with Muhammad. That team would contend for a National Championship in my opinion.

Of course, I second your last sentence as well. We'll get what we'll get.

[Faison1]

I didn't mean you. Someone else said it before you.

Is there any doubt the recruiting has been off?

When teams win championships, they tend to have 4-6 future NBA players on the team. Our recruiting has been good, but at any recent point in time, we usually have 1-3 future NBA players on the team.

Look at 2010, which most people consider a "lucky/stars-aligned" championship. We had Nolan, and Singler. I wouldn't count Lance, and it's yet to be determined on Mason, even though he played a very minor role on that team's championship run.

Last year's team had the most NBA players, with Mason, Nolan, Singler, and Irving.

2009.....Hendo, E. Williams (minor role), Nolan, Singler

So, yes, the recruiting has been good, but not over-the-top type classes like 1997, 1999, 2001 where we're bringing in 3-6 NBA caliber recruits.

[ChillinDuke]

Is there any doubt the recruiting has been off?

When teams win championships, they tend to have 4-6 future NBA players on the team. Our recruiting has been good, but at any recent point in time, we usually have 1-3 future NBA players on the team.

Look at 2010, which most people consider a "lucky/stars-aligned" championship. We had Nolan, and Singler. I wouldn't count Lance, and it's yet to be determined on Mason, even though he played a very minor role on that team's championship run.

Last year's team had the most NBA players, with Mason, Nolan, Singler, and Irving.

2009.....Hendo, E. Williams (minor role), Nolan, Singler

So, yes, the recruiting has been good, but not over-the-top type classes like 1997, 1999, 2001 where we're bringing in 3-6 NBA caliber recruits.

Hindsight. A player is only deemed "NBA caliber" by your definition if they actually make it to the NBA (or in Lance's case, I guess he doesn't count).

When these recruiting classes come in, no one knows if they are "NBA caliber" (again, your definition) or not. You can't judge recruiting based on this criteria.

So to answer your original question, yes I still doubt our recruiting has been "off".

- Chillin

[superdave]

Is there any doubt the recruiting has been off?

When teams win championships, they tend to have 4-6 future NBA players on the team. Our recruiting has been good, but at any recent point in time, we usually have 1-3 future NBA players on the team.

Look at 2010, which most people consider a "lucky/stars-aligned" championship. We had Nolan, and Singler. I wouldn't count Lance, and it's yet to be determined on Mason, even though he played a very minor role on that team's championship run.

Last year's team had the most NBA players, with Mason, Nolan, Singler, and Irving.

2009.....Hendo, E. Williams (minor role), Nolan, Singler

So, yes, the recruiting has been good, but not over-the-top type classes like 1997, 1999, 2001 where we're bringing in 3-6 NBA caliber recruits.

On this year's team, I believe the following players will play in the NBA -

Austin Rivers, Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, Quinn Cook, Marshall Plumlee

I think the following guys have a chance -

Miles Plumlee, Andre Dawkins

I have not seen them play really, but I think there's a chance -

Mike Gbinije, Alex Murphy

That's more than 4-6.

Eliot Williams would have been a senior this year and the #1 pick in last year's NBA draft would have been a sophomore, for what it's worth.

[CDu]

So to answer your original question, yes I still doubt our recruiting has been "off".

I don't think our recruiting has been off. We're still hitting on a high rate of very highly-rated recruits. It's just been different. We are still getting elite players. We're just getting much less versatile players for the most part. And the ones that we are getting who are really versatile are tending to leave early and/or earlier than expected (Deng, Livingston, Irving, E. Williams, perhaps Rivers?) or develop a bit slowly (Henderson, Nelson, Smith, Gbinije, Thomas).

[Faison1]

Hindsight. A player is only deemed "NBA caliber" by your definition if they actually make it to the NBA (or in Lance's case, I guess he doesn't count).

When these recruiting classes come in, no one knows if they are "NBA caliber" (again, your definition) or not. You can't judge recruiting based on this criteria.

So to answer your original question, yes I still doubt our recruiting has been "off".

- Chillin

Ugh. Are you really going to make me go to RSCI to come up with precise numbers? Or some formula for validating "NBA Caliber"?

I didn't count Lance because he didn't get drafted. He's a nice story based on guts and persistence, but did anyone really look at Lance and say, "He's a sure-fire NBA palyer"?

Again, without going to RSCI (mostly because I don't have time), let's think back to the 1997 class. Burgess, Avery, Brand, and Battier were all considered good shots for the NBA draft. (No guarantees, of course)

1999, Boozer, J. Williams, Dunleavy (good shots).

In the "even/off" years, we bring in talents such as Maggettee, and Duhon.

Contrast that with 2007.....Singler, Nolan, Taylor King. Singler would be considered a good shot, maybe Nolan, too. But I don't think Taylor King was high on anyone's draft board.

2010....Irving is a sure fire. But Hairston and Thornton, possible, but far from good shot.

[Faison1]

On this year's team, I believe the following players will play in the NBA -

Austin Rivers, Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, Quinn Cook, Marshall Plumlee

I think the following guys have a chance -

Miles Plumlee, Andre Dawkins

I have not seen them play really, but I think there's a chance -

Mike Gbinije, Alex Murphy

That's more than 4-6.

Eliot Williams would have been a senior this year and the #1 pick in last year's NBA draft would have been a sophomore, for what it's worth.

I think you're way beyond "Dark Blue Glasses". If everything you said comes true, we should be dominating every team we play.

There's not an analyst in this country who would agree with you. The players you named are all nice players, and absolutely wonderful kids who I respect deeply. But to think that we have 5-9 NBA players on the team is not realistic.

Do they have the talent to make it? Maybe. Have they shown it? Not yet. Austin, yes. Mason...sometimes. The rest have flashes or moments, but nothing to get them on any draft board either this year or next.

Contrast that with a team of Battier, Brand, Avery, Maggettee, Langdon....with back ups of Carrawell, and Nate James. And you want to tell me that there's no talent difference?

[DukieInBrasil]

I didn't count Lance because he didn't get drafted. He's a nice story based on guts and persistence, but did anyone really look at Lance and say, "He's a sure-fire NBA palyer"?

2010....Irving is a sure fire. But Hairston and Thornton, possible, but far from good shot.

A) Coach K said that LT would be in the NBA. Not sure if Coach K really counts as anyone though.
B) I see no path for either Josh or Tyler to the NBA. Doesn't mean they won't have fine careers at Duke by the time they finish.

[Faison1]

A) Coach K said that LT would be in the NBA. Not sure if Coach K really counts as anyone though.
B) I see no path for either Josh or Tyler to the NBA. Doesn't mean they won't have fine careers at Duke by the time they finish.

OK. Let's say you guys are right. If we have 5-9 NBA players on the team right now, what explains our late season struggles this year?

And what do you think of our chances next year? If we have so much talent on the team right now, why all the concern over incoming recruits?

[Matches]

OK. Let's say you guys are right. If we have 5-9 NBA players on the team right now, what explains our late season struggles this year?



I'm trying - and failing - to think of any Duke team that had more than 5 NBA players on it (not counting redshirts - I guess 2001 had 6 guys if you include Dahntay). Definitely agree with you and others that our current team has nowhere near that many.

Edit: 2004 had 6 guys, right? Counting Shav?

[_Gary]

I don't think our recruiting has been off. We're still hitting on a high rate of very highly-rated recruits. It's just been different. We are still getting elite players. We're just getting much less versatile players for the most part. And the ones that we are getting who are really versatile are tending to leave early and/or earlier than expected (Deng, Livingston, Irving, E. Williams, perhaps Rivers?) or develop a bit slowly (Henderson, Nelson, Smith, Gbinije, Thomas).

Darn it, CDu, quit making so many good points. :p

In all seriousness, I do agree with you on this one. We've been getting our fair share of recruits recently, but many of them have not come in and really dominated the way a Kyrie Irving did last year (when healthy). When you think about our championship teams, or near championship teams, we usually had at least two or three freshman/sophomores who really took off for us. Certainly we don't have to revisit the early 90's to make the point. Nor do we have to say much about the tremendous classes of Brand, Battier and Avery (adding Corey to the mix the next year as well), or Boozer, Dunleavy and Williams (adding Chris to the mix the next year). Our 2004 Final Four team was also loaded with guys that made big impacts early on in their freshman/sophomore years.

I do think the 2010 class, as great as it was, caught some breaks on the way to a title. But even so, that group was nothing to sneeze at.

The biggest deficiency I saw in this past season's team was the lack of a guard who had complete command of his dribble and could penetrate and either finish or dish. Other than Rivers, our guys really struggled on the offensive end with facing up and attacking off the dribble. It killed us late in the season. We had several opportunities in the pick and rolls with our bigs but our guards couldn't turn the corner and face up to make those passes inside. I think that was the biggest weakness we had and unfortunately I'm not sure how much better it will be next year (unless Shabazz comes and really blows us away - which is possible). Other than Quinn I don't feel like our guards have the ability to really be points where they can face up, have complete command of their dribble without having to worry about the ball being stolen from them, and can then drive and finish strong or dish. We just don't have the elite quickness nor dribblers to do that. That same problem showed up, imho, in our inability to run on teams last year. We rarely had break outs. Sure, some of that had to do with poor defense and a lack of steals on the perimeter. But a lot of it had to do with our guards just not being equipped and comfortable to really run hard at other teams, ala a Kyrie, Jason, or Bobby. If I had my wish that's what I'd wish for above any other position on the court - a dominant, quick point guard. That position has almost always been a key in successful Duke teams. 2010 was an aberration on that front, and while it was an amazing and fun ride, it's not what I envision as the kind of team Coach K is aiming for each and every year. Wisconsin maybe. But not Duke. Our system is designed with great PG's in mind. That's our greatest need moving forward, imho.

Of course having great wings and bigs don't hurt either. :D

[freshmanjs]

I'm trying - and failing - to think of any Duke team that had more than 5 NBA players on it (not counting redshirts - I guess 2001 had 6 guys if you include Dahntay). Definitely agree with you and others that our current team has nowhere near that many.

Edit: 2004 had 6 guys, right? Counting Shav?


2002
jwil
dunleavy
boozer
jones
duhon
ewing

[Matches]

2002
jwil
dunleavy
boozer
jones
duhon
ewing

Ah - fair enough.

Man, I hate Bruce Benedict......

[MIKESJ73]

1986 Duke team
Jay Bilas and Tommy Amaker were drafted but didn't play. David Henderson, Mark Alarie, Johnny Dawkins, Martin Nessley, and Danny Ferry all did play in the NBA

[Faison1]

Our 2004 Final Four team was also loaded with guys that made big impacts early on in their freshman/sophomore years.

That team was pretty sweet. Shelden starting at Center, Shavlik at PF, Deng at SF, JJ at SG, Duhon at Point. 6th man, Ewing. Although, my memory is failing....was Shav 6th man, and Ewing started? Either way, that's a good team, and light years ahead of what we have now.

[Matches]

That team was pretty sweet. Shelden starting at Center, Shavlik at PF, Deng at SF, JJ at SG, Duhon at Point. 6th man, Ewing. Although, my memory is failing....was Shav 6th man, and Ewing started? Either way, that's a good team, and light years ahead of what we have now.

Lineup changed a few times, but for most of the season Shav was the 6th man. Ewing came off the bench a lot during the 2003 season.

[luvdahops]

That team was pretty sweet. Shelden starting at Center, Shavlik at PF, Deng at SF, JJ at SG, Duhon at Point. 6th man, Ewing. Although, my memory is failing....was Shav 6th man, and Ewing started? Either way, that's a good team, and light years ahead of what we have now.

Ewing started, Shav and Dock were the key subs. K experimented with a bigger lineup earlier in the year (Shelden, Shav and Deng playing together) but ultimately went with the 3 guards + Luol and Shelden.

[CDu]

2002
jwil
dunleavy
boozer
jones
duhon
ewing

And the following:
2003: Jones, Duhon, Ewing, Redick, Williams, Randolph
2004: Deng, Duhon, Ewing, Redick, Williams, Randolph

Of course, this is sort of missing the point. Ewing and Randolph barely scratched the NBA. Williams, Jones, and Duhon are at best serviceable role players who can start in the absolute right environment. Redick is making an impact but is still essentially a role player as a sixth man. Only Redick and Deng can really be considered impact NBA players. I highly doubt anyone is looking at Ewing, Randolph, Duhon, and Williams (or McRoberts, Singler, and Smith at the moment) and saying "man, Duke sure does churn out NBA talent."

And I highly doubt that Kelly, Dawkins, Miles, or Cook are going to really make an NBA dent. I just don't know about Marshall, Gbinije, or Murphy, but they certainly have the right size to be NBA talent. Too early to tell with them. But none of them really played this year, so I wouldn't say they're relevant yet.

All in all, I'd say our impact NBAers have taken a decline in recent years, with Iriving and Henderson being the only guy from the last 6 years to really crack it (unless you count E. Williams, who didn't really play much for us). Compared to the Brand, Battier, Dunleavy, Boozer, Williams, and even the Redick and Williams era, it's been a bit of a dropoff.

In terms of high school and college talent, we're still absolutely churning it out on the recruiting trail. It's just different.

[Dukehky]

That team was pretty sweet. Shelden starting at Center, Shavlik at PF, Deng at SF, JJ at SG, Duhon at Point. 6th man, Ewing. Although, my memory is failing....was Shav 6th man, and Ewing started? Either way, that's a good team, and light years ahead of what we have now.

Ewing started and Shav came off the bench. Lou typically started at the 4.

[azzefkram]

I'm trying - and failing - to think of any Duke team that had more than 5 NBA players on it (not counting redshirts - I guess 2001 had 6 guys if you include Dahntay). Definitely agree with you and others that our current team has nowhere near that many.

Edit: 2004 had 6 guys, right? Counting Shav?

1999 we had four guys go in the first round while battier stayed

[MIKESJ73]

1999

Carrawell stayed also. he was a 2nd round draft pick by San Antonio.

[Matches]

1999

Carrawell stayed also. he was a 2nd round draft pick by San Antonio.

I don't think it counts if the player didn't actually play in the NBA (C-Well, Bilas, a few others) - particularly for those older players who were drafted when the NBA Draft had like 7 rounds.

[ChillinDuke]

Ugh. Are you really going to make me go to RSCI to come up with precise numbers? Or some formula for validating "NBA Caliber"?

I didn't count Lance because he didn't get drafted. He's a nice story based on guts and persistence, but did anyone really look at Lance and say, "He's a sure-fire NBA palyer"?

Again, without going to RSCI (mostly because I don't have time), let's think back to the 1997 class. Burgess, Avery, Brand, and Battier were all considered good shots for the NBA draft. (No guarantees, of course)

1999, Boozer, J. Williams, Dunleavy (good shots).

In the "even/off" years, we bring in talents such as Maggettee, and Duhon.

Contrast that with 2007.....Singler, Nolan, Taylor King. Singler would be considered a good shot, maybe Nolan, too. But I don't think Taylor King was high on anyone's draft board.

2010....Irving is a sure fire. But Hairston and Thornton, possible, but far from good shot.

I'm not trying to stir up an elaborate formula or get overly precise. Just being objective. Taylor King was a highly-rated recruit, very similar to Nolan Smith's general ranking (IIRC). To say that Nolan or Taylor was "NBA caliber" at that time or that people could accurately determine that is unreasonable IMHO.

I'm using this specific example (1) because you mentioned it in your post and (2) because it explains my opinion that this is an unreasonable way of evaluating our recruiting.

As CDu said, our recruiting may be different...but that's a more subjective argument which I'm not sure is worth opining on (for me). I just believe our recruiting has not been "off".

- Chillin

[MaxAMillion]

OK. Let's say you guys are right. If we have 5-9 NBA players on the team right now, what explains our late season struggles this year?

And what do you think of our chances next year? If we have so much talent on the team right now, why all the concern over incoming recruits?


We definitely don't have that many NBA players on the team. We might have 5 players drafted, but we don't have 5 legitimate NBA players on the team.

[CDu]

Darn it, CDu, quit making so many good points. :p

I try. I try. :)


The biggest deficiency I saw in this past season's team was the lack of a guard who had complete command of his dribble and could penetrate and either finish or dish. Other than Rivers, our guys really struggled on the offensive end with facing up and attacking off the dribble. It killed us late in the season. We had several opportunities in the pick and rolls with our bigs but our guards couldn't turn the corner and face up to make those passes inside. I think that was the biggest weakness we had and unfortunately I'm not sure how much better it will be next year (unless Shabazz comes and really blows us away - which is possible). Other than Quinn I don't feel like our guards have the ability to really be points where they can face up, have complete command of their dribble without having to worry about the ball being stolen from them, and can then drive and finish strong or dish. We just don't have the elite quickness nor dribblers to do that. That same problem showed up, imho, in our inability to run on teams last year. We rarely had break outs. Sure, some of that had to do with poor defense and a lack of steals on the perimeter. But a lot of it had to do with our guards just not being equipped and comfortable to really run hard at other teams, ala a Kyrie, Jason, or Bobby. If I had my wish that's what I'd wish for above any other position on the court - a dominant, quick point guard. That position has almost always been a key in successful Duke teams. 2010 was an aberration on that front, and while it was an amazing and fun ride, it's not what I envision as the kind of team Coach K is aiming for each and every year. Wisconsin maybe. But not Duke. Our system is designed with great PG's in mind. That's our greatest need moving forward, imho.

Of course having great wings and bigs don't hurt either. :D

I absolutely agree that a lack of strong ballhandlers/playmakers hurt us. Cook was the only guy who had the strong ballhandler and distributor tool set in place. But he wasn't ready physically this year. Rivers and (at times) Curry and Kelly could each create their own shot but weren't great distributors. So it was hard for us to get easy buckets.

I'd add to that the challenges we faced in terms of defensive versatility. We were either big or small, and didn't really utilize two of the guys who could theoretically span multiple positions defensively (not saying they were ready - just that they were the ones theoretically capable). So we were very susceptible to matchup problems on the other end.

[unexpected]

And the following:
2003: Jones, Duhon, Ewing, Redick, Williams, Randolph
2004: Deng, Duhon, Ewing, Redick, Williams, Randolph

Of course, this is sort of missing the point. Ewing and Randolph barely scratched the NBA. Williams, Jones, and Duhon are at best serviceable role players who can start in the absolute right environment. Redick is making an impact but is still essentially a role player as a sixth man. Only Redick and Deng can really be considered impact NBA players. I highly doubt anyone is looking at Ewing, Randolph, Duhon, and Williams (or McRoberts, Singler, and Smith at the moment) and saying "man, Duke sure does churn out NBA talent."

And I highly doubt that Kelly, Dawkins, Miles, or Cook are going to really make an NBA dent. I just don't know about Marshall, Gbinije, or Murphy, but they certainly have the right size to be NBA talent. Too early to tell with them. But none of them really played this year, so I wouldn't say they're relevant yet.

All in all, I'd say our impact NBAers have taken a decline in recent years, with Iriving and Henderson being the only guy from the last 6 years to really crack it (unless you count E. Williams, who didn't really play much for us). Compared to the Brand, Battier, Dunleavy, Boozer, Williams, and even the Redick and Williams era, it's been a bit of a dropoff.

In terms of high school and college talent, we're still absolutely churning it out on the recruiting trail. It's just different.

I agree with most of what you're saying but:

1) If you really think about it, Elliot Williams probably played more than Kyrie Irving did for Duke

2) There's lack of high-impact players in the NBA that stayed 3-4 years in college, if you're talented enough to be a lottery pick, you're going to go. In that sense, I don't know how much "development" Duke, or any other school can take credit for. You came, you stay a year, and you move on.

[Kedsy]

When teams win championships, they tend to have 4-6 future NBA players on the team.

I think if you go back, you'll find this isn't true.

I'm not going to take the time because it's not worth it with your fluid definitions (e.g., Lance "doesn't count"; Mason played a "minimal role"). But my guess is most NCAA champions have had between 1 and 3 guys on the team who played a bigger role than Mason did in 2010 and are taken in the NBA draft (fewer if you only count the NBA first round). Very few have had 4 to 6 players who meet that criteria.

[Faison1]

I think if you go back, you'll find this isn't true.

I'm not going to take the time because it's not worth it with your fluid definitions (e.g., Lance "doesn't count"; Mason played a "minimal role"). But my guess is most NCAA champions have had between 1 and 3 guys on the team who played a bigger role than Mason did in 2010 and are taken in the NBA draft (fewer if you only count the NBA first round). Very few have had 4 to 6 players who meet that criteria.

You're right. I am being too fluid. However, I don't think I'm wrong.

There was an article probably 15 years ago written by Sports Illustrated (back when they were the definitive source on sports reporting) that made the claim of "needing" at least 4 NBA players on a roster in order to have a good-to-strong shot at winning the whole thing. They backed it up with fact. They referenced every team that had won the championship, and identified teams that had less than 4 NBA players as being the outliers.

I will try to do my best to find the article.

Thinking of the last 10 champions, I bet that UConn (twice), UNC (twice), Florida (twice), Syracuse, Maryland, Kansas, MSU had a minimum of 3-5 guys drafted off their teams. And if they didn't, they were in the minority.

Now that it's gotten this far, let me do some research and get back to you. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

[superdave]

I think you're way beyond "Dark Blue Glasses". If everything you said comes true, we should be dominating every team we play.

There's not an analyst in this country who would agree with you. The players you named are all nice players, and absolutely wonderful kids who I respect deeply. But to think that we have 5-9 NBA players on the team is not realistic.

Do they have the talent to make it? Maybe. Have they shown it? Not yet. Austin, yes. Mason...sometimes. The rest have flashes or moments, but nothing to get them on any draft board either this year or next.

Contrast that with a team of Battier, Brand, Avery, Maggettee, Langdon....with back ups of Carrawell, and Nate James. And you want to tell me that there's no talent difference?

Will Avery made it in the NBA. He played 142 games. Maybe you do not consider that making it, but he made it. I think Quinn Cook can do that at least.

Chris Carrawell was a 2nd round draft pick in the NBA but never played in a game. So I dont count that as making it.

As for this year's guys, I actually think Ryan Kelly is big enough to play D in the league and a good enough shooter to play the Matt Bonner role.

[cbnaylor]

I disagree. I see Kelly as a Dirk.....Dirk would never be caught playing center in the NBA.

[FerryFor50]

I disagree. I see Kelly as a Dirk.....Dirk would never be caught playing center in the NBA.

Neither would Matt Bonner.

A lot of guys have made a career out of being 7 foot tall 3 point specialists.

Bonner, Radmonovic, Danny Ferry...

[CDu]

Neither would Matt Bonner.

A lot of guys have made a career out of being 7 foot tall 3 point specialists.

Bonner, Radmonovic, Danny Ferry...

Sorry to nitpick, but none of those three a 7-footers. They are all 6'9"/6'10". And none are/were NBA centers. Bonner is a 4, Radmanovic and Ferry are/were 3/4 guys.

Kelly would play the 4. He's shorter than Dirk and not nearly as good. But that's the style of play he'd have.

[MChambers]

Grant Hill, bona fide star
Laettner, good player, once an All-Star
Hurley (who knows how good he could have been?)
Brian Davis
Cherokee Parks

[mr. synellinden]

Neither would Matt Bonner.

A lot of guys have made a career out of being 7 foot tall 3 point specialists.

Bonner, Radmonovic, Danny Ferry...

Steve Novak is writing the book on how to do that this year.

I think Kelly needs to improve his range and consistency to be able to make it in the NBA as a 3 pt. specialist. Adding 15-20 pounds so he can defend the 4 would also help.

[FerryFor50]

Sorry to nitpick, but none of those three a 7-footers. They are all 6'9"/6'10". And none are/were NBA centers. Bonner is a 4, Radmanovic and Ferry are/were 3/4 guys.

Kelly would play the 4. He's shorter than Dirk and not nearly as good. But that's the style of play he'd have.

Yea that was kind of a nitpick. :)

My point was... tall, one-dimensional players hovering NEAR 7 feet can make a career out of shooting 3s. Better? :p

[Matches]

I think Kelly needs to improve his range and consistency to be able to make it in the NBA as a 3 pt. specialist. Adding 15-20 pounds so he can defend the 4 would also help.

This is key. Kelly is not an NBA 4 right now. If he can add some strength without losing mobility, though, he could become one.

[Faison1]

I think if you go back, you'll find this isn't true.

I'm not going to take the time because it's not worth it with your fluid definitions (e.g., Lance "doesn't count"; Mason played a "minimal role"). But my guess is most NCAA champions have had between 1 and 3 guys on the team who played a bigger role than Mason did in 2010 and are taken in the NBA draft (fewer if you only count the NBA first round). Very few have had 4 to 6 players who meet that criteria.

OK. I went back. I just went with players who got drafted. I probably missed a few. Here's the list:

2011 UConn – Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, Alex Oriakhi, Shabazz Napier
2010 Duke – Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler
2009 UNC – Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Ed Davis
2008 Kansas – Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun (2nd Rd), Darnell Jackson (2nd )
2007 Florida – Taurean Green (2nd Rd), Corey Brewer, Al Horford, Joakim Noah
2006 Florida
2005 UNC – Sean May, Rashad McCants, Ray Felton, Marvin Williams
2004 UConn – Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Charlie Villanueva, Josh Boone
2003 Cuse – Melo, Hakim Warrick
2002 Maryland – Juan Dixon, Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake
2001 Duke – Boozer, J. Williams, Battier, Dunleavy, Duhon

Obviously, I'm guessing with last year's UConn team.

The main outliers were Duke 2010, and Syracuse 2003. Other than that, each team had a minimum of 4 players drafted, if not more. I did not include guys who were picked up in summer league or signed free agent contracts. I only went with draftees.

If I went back further, I bet it would be even more pronounced.

[Monmouth77]

Will Avery made it in the NBA. He played 142 games. Maybe you do not consider that making it, but he made it. I think Quinn Cook can do that at least.

Chris Carrawell was a 2nd round draft pick in the NBA but never played in a game. So I dont count that as making it.

As for this year's guys, I actually think Ryan Kelly is big enough to play D in the league and a good enough shooter to play the Matt Bonner role.

Putting aside subjective views concerning who "made it" in the NBA, the point that we do not now have the talent we had in 1999 is simple and unassailable. Five of the top 6 rotation players were drafted in the 1st Round of the NBA draft (4 of them as lottery picks) and all 6 were drafted. Only the 2001 team had similar talent. 1991-92, 2002, and 2004 come close. This year's team does not.

[unexpected]

OK. I went back. I just went with players who got drafted. I probably missed a few. Here's the list:

2011 UConn – Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, Alex Oriakhi, Shabazz Napier
2010 Duke – Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler
2009 UNC – Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Ed Davis
2008 Kansas – Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun (2nd Rd), Darnell Jackson (2nd )
2007 Florida – Taurean Green (2nd Rd), Corey Brewer, Al Horford, Joakim Noah
2006 Florida
2005 UNC – Sean May, Rashad McCants, Ray Felton, Marvin Williams
2004 UConn – Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Charlie Villanueva, Josh Boone
2003 Cuse – Melo, Hakim Warrick
2002 Maryland – Juan Dixon, Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake
2001 Duke – Boozer, J. Williams, Battier, Dunleavy, Duhon

Obviously, I'm guessing with last year's UConn team.

The main outliers were Duke 2010, and Syracuse 2003. Other than that, each team had a minimum of 4 players drafted, if not more. I did not include guys who were picked up in summer league or signed free agent contracts. I only went with draftees.

If I went back further, I bet it would be even more pronounced.

What's telling to me is that only 1-2 of these players (Melo) is an top-10 NBA player. Other than Melo, you would take Boozer? Gordon? Most of these guys have ended up as role players in the NBA, or are out of the league entirely now.

[Matches]

What's telling to me is that only 1-2 of these players (Melo) is an top-10 NBA player. Other than Melo, you would take Boozer? Gordon? Most of these guys have ended up as role players in the NBA, or are out of the league entirely now.

Only 10 guys can be top-10 NBA players. It's not really a fair metric. There's lots of very good NBA players on that list.

[Faison1]

Will Avery made it in the NBA. He played 142 games. Maybe you do not consider that making it, but he made it. I think Quinn Cook can do that at least.

Chris Carrawell was a 2nd round draft pick in the NBA but never played in a game. So I dont count that as making it.

As for this year's guys, I actually think Ryan Kelly is big enough to play D in the league and a good enough shooter to play the Matt Bonner role.

My argument with you was that the 1999 team had 5 guys that got drafted in the 1st round, 1 guy in the 2nd, and another who was not drafted (Nate James) who could play circles around anyone on our current team (maybe).

We don't have that now.

Anyone could see that Will Avery was a star as a freshman. He was bona-fide as a soph. He would have been amazing as a junior. I sure hope Quinn Cook can get to those levels. Like I said earlier....maybe.

[azzefkram]

What's telling to me is that only 1-2 of these players (Melo) is an top-10 NBA player. Other than Melo, you would take Boozer? Gordon? Most of these guys have ended up as role players in the NBA, or are out of the league entirely now.

Top-10 not really a fair yardstick to use. Many of the top 10 players never went to college.

[Monmouth77]

My argument with you was that the 1999 team had 5 guys that got drafted in the 1st round, 1 guy in the 2nd, and another who was not drafted (Nate James) who could play circles around anyone on our current team (maybe).

We don't have that now.

Anyone could see that Will Avery was a star as a freshman. He was bona-fide as a soph. He would have been amazing as a junior. I sure hope Quinn Cook can get to those levels. Like I said earlier....maybe.

Exactly. To put this another way, Austin Rivers would have come off the bench on the 1999 team-- just like Corey Maggette. And unlike Maggette, it is not clear that Austin will be a lottery pick. And he was our best player this year.

[CDu]

OK. I went back. I just went with players who got drafted. I probably missed a few. Here's the list:

2011 UConn – Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, Alex Oriakhi, Shabazz Napier
2010 Duke – Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler
2009 UNC – Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Ed Davis
2008 Kansas – Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun (2nd Rd), Darnell Jackson (2nd )
2007 Florida – Taurean Green (2nd Rd), Corey Brewer, Al Horford, Joakim Noah
2006 Florida
2005 UNC – Sean May, Rashad McCants, Ray Felton, Marvin Williams
2004 UConn – Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Charlie Villanueva, Josh Boone
2003 Cuse – Melo, Hakim Warrick
2002 Maryland – Juan Dixon, Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake
2001 Duke – Boozer, J. Williams, Battier, Dunleavy, Duhon

Obviously, I'm guessing with last year's UConn team.

The main outliers were Duke 2010, and Syracuse 2003. Other than that, each team had a minimum of 4 players drafted, if not more. I did not include guys who were picked up in summer league or signed free agent contracts. I only went with draftees.

If I went back further, I bet it would be even more pronounced.

If you're going to count Oriakhi (who has not gotten drafted, and may very well never get drafted) on that list then you have to put Mason on the list for Duke's 2010 team. Mason is MUCH more likely to get drafted than Oriakhi. Heck, I'd give Kelly just about even odds with Oriakhi to get drafted based on this past year. Might as well put Miles in there too, since Miles outperformed Oriakhi this year and is more athletic...

[Matches]

Exactly. To put this another way, Austin Rivers would have come off the bench on the 1999 team-- just like Corey Maggette. And unlike Maggette, it is not clear that Austin will be a lottery pick. And he was our best player this year.

Most teams have nowhere near the talent we had in 1999. There's a reason we blew just about everyone away that year. I tend to agree that our recruiting has fallen off in certain areas in recent years, but it's problematic to make that point in comparison to the 1999 team. Even the '01 or '04 teams will fall short by that metric.

[unexpected]

Top-10 not really a fair yardstick to use. Many of the top 10 players never went to college.

Exactly, but the "prevailing wisdom" is that you need elite NBA level talent to win a college championship. This notion is false! Also, Even if we expanded the list to upper 1/3 of NBA - let's say "one of the best four players on the team" - very few people from the list meet that.

[Matches]

Exactly, but the "prevailing wisdom" is that you need elite NBA level talent to win a college championship. This notion is false! Also, Even if we expanded the list to upper 1/3 of NBA - let's say "one of the best four players on the team" - very few people from the list meet that.

Is the prevailing wisdom that a team needs elite NBA talent, or multiple NBA players? Personally I'd lean toward the latter.

[azzefkram]

Exactly. To put this another way, Austin Rivers would have come off the bench on the 1999 team-- just like Corey Maggette. And unlike Maggette, it is not clear that Austin will be a lottery pick. And he was our best player this year.

Well the 1999 team was super stacked. Additionally, austin was our most prominent player this year but not our best.

[azzefkram]

Exactly, but the "prevailing wisdom" is that you need elite NBA level talent to win a college championship. This notion is false! Also, Even if we expanded the list to upper 1/3 of NBA - let's say "one of the best four players on the team" - very few people from the list meet that.

I think you need an excellent to elite college point guard to win a college championship.

[Faison1]

If you're going to count Oriakhi (who has not gotten drafted, and may very well never get drafted) on that list then you have to put Mason on the list for Duke's 2010 team. Mason is MUCH more likely to get drafted than Oriakhi. Heck, I'd give Kelly just about even odds with Oriakhi to get drafted based on this past year. Might as well put Miles in there too, since Miles outperformed Oriakhi this year and is more athletic...

Oriakhi averaged 29 mins a game last year, notching 9.6 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. He's projected to be drafted at the end of the 2nd round. I know, that's a little flimsy.

But fine. If we compare Mason's numbers from 2010, he averaged 14 mins a game, 3.7 pts and 3.1 rebounds.

So, if you want to be fair, we can either drop Oriakhi, or add Mason. That doesn't take away from the fact that the majority of teams had at least 4 NBA draftees/players on hand to win championships.

[unexpected]

Is the prevailing wisdom that a team needs elite NBA talent, or multiple NBA players? Personally I'd lean toward the latter.

I don't think "prevailing wisdom" necessarily matches up with the posters on this thread believe. I think "we" (as posters) are aware that you can get it done with multiple NBA players. prevailing wisdom gets caught up in the hype of trying to snag the top overall recruit - which, as we've seen, doesn't necessarily get you the championship.

Of course, all this could change if Kentucky steamrolls its way to victory, but the rest of the teams still in it have carefully constructed rosters that they have developed over at least 2 years. Outside of Kentucky, UNC has the most hyped recruit in Barnes, but Zeller, Marshall, Henson (while good recruits), were not in the "instant lottery pick" category

[unexpected]

I think you need an excellent to elite college point guard to win a college championship.

Outside of Kemba last year, was Scheyer elite? Chalmers, elite? McNamara, elite? Who was the PG from Florida's back to back championships?

[azzefkram]

Outside of Kemba last year, was Scheyer elite? Chalmers, elite? McNamara, elite? Who was the PG from Florida's back to back championships?

Scheyer and Chalmers were elite college point guards. Green probably wasn't elite but he was good and the team was very good to excellent 1 through 5. If you keep going back, you find Cleeves, Dixon and Francis, Jay Williams.

[FerryFor50]

Scheyer and Chalmers were elite college point guards. Green probably wasn't elite but he was good and the team was very good to excellent 1 through 5. If you keep going back, you find Cleeves, Dixon and Francis, Jay Williams.

I don't think Scheyer was an elite college point guard. He was a converted 2 guard who became a point guard out of necessity. Heroic, and was pretty good at it, but not elite.

[_Gary]

I don't think Scheyer was an elite college point guard. He was a converted 2 guard who became a point guard out of necessity. Heroic, and was pretty good at it, but not elite.

Yep. I loved Jon, but there's no way I'd ever describe him as anything close to an elite college PG.

[CDu]

Scheyer and Chalmers were elite college point guards. Green probably wasn't elite but he was good and the team was very good to excellent 1 through 5. If you keep going back, you find Cleeves, Dixon and Francis, Jay Williams.

Actually, that's incorrect. Francis didn't play on Maryland's championship team, and Dixon was the SG. Steve Blake was the PG. He was really really good though.

McNamara is the one outlier (he was a freshman shooter who happened to bring the ball up court). Syracuse just happened to also have Warrick and Anthony who dominated that tournament.

[pfrduke]

Yep. I loved Jon, but there's no way I'd ever describe him as anything close to an elite college PG.

I don't know what your definition of elite is, but in Jon's senior season he scored over 18 ppg, got nearly 5 apg, and had a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio. He had the 10th best offensive rating in all of college basketball. He may not have been a "traditional" point guard in the drive/draw/dish sense, but he was absolutely elite.

[Monmouth77]

Most teams have nowhere near the talent we had in 1999. There's a reason we blew just about everyone away that year. I tend to agree that our recruiting has fallen off in certain areas in recent years, but it's problematic to make that point in comparison to the 1999 team. Even the '01 or '04 teams will fall short by that metric.

Oh, I agree. I was disputing the notion that the kind of talent we now have is even roughly comparable to where it has been at various program peaks.

That is not to say that we could not win a Championship without such talent -- 2010 proves otherwise. But the talent sure helps.

Like others have discussed, I also think there's more room for error when we are able to recruit versatile players (tall guards, ballhandling forwards, ballhawking wing defenders) regardless of top talent. Again, like others have suggested, players like Lang, Brickey, Carrawell, Scheyer, Lance Thomas (all different sorts of players, of course) have been instrumental in Duke's success, even though they had/have marginal NBA-level talent.

Though I am not sure even next year's team has much NBA First Round talent (if Mason stays, or Muhammad comes perhaps) I'd like to think that guys like Sulaimon and Murphy (and perhaps Gbinije) are talented, versatile players who can help us compete even better than this year.

And to bring it back to 1999, I would really like to see Quinn Cook look like Will Avery out there. As others have mentioned, he looks like the kind of guy whose ceiling we haven't really even glimpsed.

[azzefkram]

Yep. I loved Jon, but there's no way I'd ever describe him as anything close to an elite college PG.

John had an Ast% of 25.8, TOV% of 9.3, PER of 25.1, Ortg of 132, Drtg of 94.8, OWS of 4.2, DWS of 3.9 and a WS of 8.1. In no way was Jon a traditional PG but for that year he was elite.

[_Gary]

I don't know what your definition of elite is, but in Jon's senior season he scored over 18 ppg, got nearly 5 apg, and had a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio. He had the 10th best offensive rating in all of college basketball. He may not have been a "traditional" point guard in the drive/draw/dish sense, but he was absolutely elite.

Let me clarify. Jon had an elite college PG season by the numbers. No question about that. But I'd differentiate between a SG having absolutely fabulous PG numbers for one season, and a traditional PG that can (as you yourself say) break down defenses off the dribble and be able to either finish or dish. Jon was not that at all. He just didn't have the physical tools to be that. But please don't take that as me demeaning Jon and his accomplishments while playing the point in his senior season. I'm in no way, shape, or form attempting to do that.

[azzefkram]

Let me clarify. Jon had an elite college PG season by the numbers. No question about that. But I'd differentiate between a SG having absolutely fabulous PG numbers for one season, and a traditional PG that can (as you yourself say) break down defenses off the dribble and be able to either finish or dish. Jon was not that at all. He just didn't have the physical tools to be that. But please don't take that as me demeaning Jon and his accomplishments while playing the point in his senior season. I'm in no way, shape, or form attempting to do that.

At the end of the day, don't we want a point guard who can effectively and efficiently run the team? Austin can break down defenses off the dribble and sometimes finish, but I wouldn't want him to be our point guard. For the record I never thought you were demeaning Jon.

[THE FUTURE]

Crazy start to the offseason.....let me see if im seeing things clear...Austin is leaving and Mason more than likely...Were still recruiting Bazz,Amile and Parker...And
now were looking at trey zeigler and alex O, transfers who won't have to sit the year out..So if Austin and Mason are gone that leaves us with 3 Schollys to give out? Excited but who do we land?

[_Gary]

At the end of the day, don't we want a point guard who can effectively and efficiently run the team? Austin can break down defenses off the dribble and sometimes finish, but I wouldn't want him to be our point guard. For the record I never thought you were demeaning Jon.

Thanks for understanding my point. And yes, of course we want a PG that can run the team. I'd just like to have a guy more in the Hurley, Williams, Irving mold. I'm not asking too much, am I? ;)

[azzefkram]

Thanks for understanding my point. And yes, of course we want a PG that can run the team. I'd just like to have a guy more in the Hurley, Williams, Irving mold. I'm not asking too much, am I? ;)

Not at all but unfortunately it seems we have to wait about 10 years between their appearances.

[sagegrouse]

Actually, that's incorrect. Francis didn't play on Maryland's championship team, and Dixon was the SG. Steve Blake was the PG. He was really really good though.
McNamara is the one outlier (he was a freshman shooter who happened to bring the ball up court). Syracuse just happened to also have Warrick and Anthony who dominated that tournament.

Here's your big chance: If you thought Steve Blake would play nine years (NINE YEARS!) in the NBA, step forward and claim your prize. I may be able to find a T shirt for you.

sage
'FWIW he was a second round draft pick, but -- of course -- so was Carlos'

[DukieInBrasil]

Crazy start to the offseason.....let me see if im seeing things clear...Austin is leaving and Mason more than likely...Were still recruiting Bazz,Amile and Parker...And
now were looking at trey zeigler and alex O, transfers who won't have to sit the year out..So if Austin and Mason are gone that leaves us with 3 Schollys to give out? Excited but who do we land?

If UCon's tourney ban holds up Oriakhi won't have to sit. Zeigler would though, barring some bizarre interpretation of the rules. If Oriakhi decides to come to Duke, i think that obviates the need for Parker, although we'd have to get some high-quality PF/C(s) in the 2013/14 class. Landing Amile in this year's class would further reduce the need for Parker. If this scenario were to play out, 13/14's roster would have MP3 (7'0, So.), Hairston (6'8, Sr.), Murphy (6'8, So.), Jefferson (6'8, So.) and any recruits from that class. Not overwhelming height, but useful.

[tommy]

Rather than posting in either the Shabazz or Parker thread, I guess this one makes more sense in discussing both players. I hate to jinx anything, but I'm feeling a tad bit more optimistic about these two kids in recent days. One, the Parker "roundtable" was encouraging, as his parents are enamored of Duke and Tony himself seemed intent on dispelling the notion that he doesn't like Duke. He loves Kansas, that's for sure, but it kind of seemed like a significant factor in that attraction for him was the strength/workout coordinator. Hard to believe, but OK.

Then I saw a comment yesterday from Kyle Anderson, UCLA's star recruit from New Jersey this year. When asked if he thought Parker and Muhammad would be joining him in Westwood, he said something to the effect of, "not likely, but I'm still trying." That's good.

Then Josh Smith, UCLA's rising junior post player, announced he'd be coming back to UCLA for another year. I'm no fan of Smith, his game, or his work ethic, but the fact that he plays the same position as Parker, with a similar body, but with two more years of experience means there would be someone directly in Parker's way in terms of playing time were he to commit to UCLA. That's good.

I know Kansas has a pretty full cupboard too -- maybe someone can fill us in exactly as to what their roster is shaping up to look like for next year -- so maybe as both Muhammad and Parker look at where they're going to have the best opportunity to not only win, but to be showcased, they along with their families might be thinking Duke. I know, Shabazz will be showcased wherever he goes, and Parker may or may not actually be an impact player as a frosh (though all the opportunity in the world would be there at Duke if he's willing to work hard for it), I dont know -- I'm just feeling a little more hopeful than I was as of a few weeks ago about these two kids. I still think if I had to bet, I'd bet on one or both to Kansas, but now . . . maybe not??

[DukieinSoCal]

Rather than posting in either the Shabazz or Parker thread, I guess this one makes more sense in discussing both players. I hate to jinx anything, but I'm feeling a tad bit more optimistic about these two kids in recent days. One, the Parker "roundtable" was encouraging, as his parents are enamored of Duke and Tony himself seemed intent on dispelling the notion that he doesn't like Duke. He loves Kansas, that's for sure, but it kind of seemed like a significant factor in that attraction for him was the strength/workout coordinator. Hard to believe, but OK.

Then I saw a comment yesterday from Kyle Anderson, UCLA's star recruit from New Jersey this year. When asked if he thought Parker and Muhammad would be joining him in Westwood, he said something to the effect of, "not likely, but I'm still trying." That's good.

Then Josh Smith, UCLA's rising junior post player, announced he'd be coming back to UCLA for another year. I'm no fan of Smith, his game, or his work ethic, but the fact that he plays the same position as Parker, with a similar body, but with two more years of experience means there would be someone directly in Parker's way in terms of playing time were he to commit to UCLA. That's good.

I know Kansas has a pretty full cupboard too -- maybe someone can fill us in exactly as to what their roster is shaping up to look like for next year -- so maybe as both Muhammad and Parker look at where they're going to have the best opportunity to not only win, but to be showcased, they along with their families might be thinking Duke. I know, Shabazz will be showcased wherever he goes, and Parker may or may not actually be an impact player as a frosh (though all the opportunity in the world would be there at Duke if he's willing to work hard for it), I dont know -- I'm just feeling a little more hopeful than I was as of a few weeks ago about these two kids. I still think if I had to bet, I'd bet on one or both to Kansas, but now . . . maybe not??

Just wondering if there could be a problem with numbers. Obviously, Austin leaving opens up a spot but what if Jefferson or Zeigler commits in the next few days? Then we wouldn't have any more schollies available unless Mason leaves. If Mason decides to stay and Austin's spot gets taken, we wouldn't be able to sign Bazz or Parker even if they wanted to come, right?

[Class of '94]

Just wondering if there could be a problem with numbers. Obviously, Austin leaving opens up a spot but what if Jefferson or Zeigler commits in the next few days? Then we wouldn't have any more schollies available unless Mason leaves. If Mason decides to stay and Austin's spot gets taken, we wouldn't be able to sign Bazz or Parker even if they wanted to come, right?

Just pure speculation on my part, but I would have to think the coaching staff may know that more changes to team personnel (whether it be Mason leaving or other players) may be coming because it's not their style to "over-recruit". And while I appreciate the "casting a wide net" approach, K and staff have been recruiting all of these kids hard, and none of them appear to be an overlap/duplication of talent with respect to one another. My guess is that if all of the recruits commit to Duke, there will be scholarships for them.

[CDu]

Just wondering if there could be a problem with numbers. Obviously, Austin leaving opens up a spot but what if Jefferson or Zeigler commits in the next few days? Then we wouldn't have any more schollies available unless Mason leaves. If Mason decides to stay and Austin's spot gets taken, we wouldn't be able to sign Bazz or Parker even if they wanted to come, right?

Rivers leaving means we have 2 scholarships available (we have 10 recruited players returning plus Sulaimon). I would guess that Coach K is hoping for one wing player and one big to join the mix (regardless of Mason's decision).

If Mason goes then we have 3 scholarships available.

Editor's note: CDu either can't proofread or can't subtract, so CDu has corrected CDu's error.

[MChambers]

Rivers leaving means we have 3 scholarships available (we have 10 recruited players returning plus Sulaimon). I would guess that Coach K is hoping for one wing player and one big to join the mix (regardless of Mason's decision).

If Mason goes then we have 3 scholarships available.

I think you mean Rivers leaving gives Duke 2 scholarships to give; Mason would be 3.

[CDu]

I think you mean Rivers leaving gives Duke 2 scholarships to give; Mason would be 3.

Yes, that was a typo. Weird. Not sure why I did that (I guess I was already thinking ahead to the last sentence).

[dcdevil2009]

Thanks for understanding my point. And yes, of course we want a PG that can run the team. I'd just like to have a guy more in the Hurley, Williams, Irving mold. I'm not asking too much, am I? ;)

I think we'd want a guy in the mold one of the top Duke freshman of all time or two guys who have their jerseys retired at any position, not just guard.

If Quinn can learn to assert himself more, and that doesn't necessarily mean looking for his shot, he's shown that he's got a lot of the physical talent to bring out the best in Seth, Ryan, Andre, Mason (assuming he's back). I can see him potentially doing what Kendall Marshall did for UNC where everyone who was catching flack for being disappointed suddenly started producing up to their potential. If Coach K can demonstrate to recruits that Quinn can be an effective, pass-first point guard, who can run the floor or the half court, then all of a sudden Duke looks like a much more attractive place to play for all the athletic 3s and 4s that we've been clamoring for on this board. We all know that Coach K will adjust his system to his personnel, but that doesn't always mean playing the style that a recruit wants to play or that would suit his individual strengths the best.

We hear criticism about how we use bigs a lot, but if our guards limit us to a half court, slow tempo offense, then I can see it being a con for athletic wings who want to play in a high octane offense, while also helping us in the eyes of shooters and stretch 4s. Luckily we've been able to win playing both styles, and with Kyrie demonstrated that we will be ready to run as soon as our personnel allows it. However, without continuity at the PG it has to be difficult to sell a recruit on how he'll be used when your personnel might not allow it when he arrives on campus. It is interesting that the "Duke bigs only set screens" and "Duke doesn't develop bigs" only started post-Duhon, but pre-2005 guys like Burgess and Shav are used as examples.

[Li_Duke]

It is interesting that the "Duke bigs only set screens" and "Duke doesn't develop bigs" only started post-Duhon, but pre-2005 guys like Burgess and Shav are used as examples.

Especially interesting since they didn't get much floor time to showcase their screen-setting abilities.

[juise]

Here's a current scholarship count (including Mason) for those keeping score at home. As most know, the maximum number of scholarship players is 13.


Count Player Year
1 Alex Murphy Fr.
2 Marshall Plumlee Fr.
3 Rasheed Sulaimon Fr.
4 Michael Gbinije So.
5 Quinn Cook So.
6 Josh Hairston Jr.
7 Tyler Thornton Jr.
8 Andre Dawkins Sr.
9 Mason Plumlee Sr.
10 Ryan Kelly Sr.
11 Seth Curry Sr.

[SeattleIrish]

RT @KevinRDuffy: Kentucky and North Carolina among schools to contact Oriakhi since release, source says. Oriakhi will not consider Duke

According to the twitterverse...

s.i.

[DUKIE V(A)]

RT @KevinRDuffy: Kentucky and North Carolina among schools to contact Oriakhi since release, source says. Oriakhi will not consider Duke

According to the twitterverse...

s.i.

If true, it would a sign that the UNC boys are taking their game to the next level. Good for them.

[davekay1971]

If true, it would a sign that the UNC boys are taking their game to the next level. Good for them.

Or that they expect Henson to go. And/or that he (or Duke) doesn't expect Mason to go.

[-bdbd]

Just pure speculation on my part, but I would have to think the coaching staff may know that more changes to team personnel (whether it be Mason leaving or other players) may be coming because it's not their style to "over-recruit". And while I appreciate the "casting a wide net" approach, K and staff have been recruiting all of these kids hard, and none of them appear to be an overlap/duplication of talent with respect to one another. My guess is that if all of the recruits commit to Duke, there will be scholarships for them.

Spot on '94!
Folks on fan boards forget that the BB staffs know a LOT more than they do. If K and staff are pursuing all of these recruits, and have offered scholarships to them, then they almost certainly have plans in place on how to make it all work. Much of the inside info we will never know. There are other possibilities besides just the two specific scholarship vacancies currently being discussed for next year, and so NO DOUBT DUKE CAN ACCOMODATE MORE THAN JUST TWO ADDITIONS (as that seems to be the popular assumption of our ceiling right now). Players may transfer, others nay have offered to give up their scholarships for the year, there may be unknown others looking at going pro. Any number of things we aren't privvy to. But what we do know is that there's apparently at least 4 offers currently outstanding to those who would be new to Duke this coming fall -- TP, SM, AJ, and TZ apparently -- and I have absolute faith that K and staff know exactly what they arer doing.

I sure HOPE that we have such a problem as trying to find scholarships to cover all of those top-flight signees!!! :rolleyes:

[jnastasi]

Just read that Robert upshaw prob won't be going to kstate now that Martin has left. Anybody think we might pursue? Dude is 6'11 250. I don't know his academic situation but it sounds interesting, ESP if we miss out on tp and amile.

[heyman25]

Here's a current scholarship count (including Mason) for those keeping score at home. As most know, the maximum number of scholarship players is 13.


Count Player Year
1 Alex Murphy Fr.
2 Marshall Plumlee Fr.
3 Rasheed Sulaimon Fr.
4 Michael Gbinije So.
5 Quinn Cook So.
6 Josh Hairston Jr.
7 Tyler Thornton Jr.
8 Andre Dawkins Sr.
9 Mason Plumlee Sr.
10 Ryan Kelly Sr.
11 Seth Curry Sr.

Besides Mason leaving for the NBA , there are the potential for transfers for unhappy members of the team.

[roywhite]

Besides Mason leaving for the NBA , there are the potential for transfers for unhappy members of the team.

Well, I suppose that's possible. But do you have some information about that, or perhaps heading toward rumor?
Note the posts from Mike Corey at the top of the board.

[ThePublisher]

I haven't heard any transfer rumors, but it wouldn't shock me if gbinije looked into going elsewhere. I get the vibe from him that he doesn't exactly love the Duke spotlight. Let's hope not as I think he can be a valuable asset to the team and school.

[yancem]

I haven't heard any transfer rumors, but it wouldn't shock me if gbinije looked into going elsewhere. I get the vibe from him that he doesn't exactly love the Duke spotlight. Let's hope not as I think he can be a valuable asset to the team and school.

I've hear rumors about Silent G, Cook, Curry, Dawkins and MP3. I have also see tweets from Silent G, Cook, and Hairston about preparing for next season so I think we can count them out. The MP3 rumor is the most absurd. He just sat out the year red shirting, he's not going to sit out another year to transfer. Add to that that MP1 played 4 years and MP2 3 without any rumors of discontent or thoughts of transferring. Also, you just have to look at his Blue Planet videos to know he was having a good time. It's hard to see seniors Curry or Dawkins transferring but I guess stranger things have happened. Curry will be getting his degree so I guess he could decide to go make money over seas or possibly transfer like whats his name did last year to unc and take graduate classes and not have to sit out.

Obviously the coaches are preparing for all scenarios but I'm having trouble figuring out what they may all be. Hopefully things will clear up in the next 2 weeks and we will be presently surprised with what the roster looks like. Regardless, I think Duke will be good next season, it just a matter of how good.

[superdave]

On these boards, Rumors is a Fleetwood Mac album, people. Give us a link, please.

[Ichabod Drain]

Spot on '94!
Folks on fan boards forget that the BB staffs know a LOT more than they do. If K and staff are pursuing all of these recruits, and have offered scholarships to them, then they almost certainly have plans in place on how to make it all work. Much of the inside info we will never know. There are other possibilities besides just the two specific scholarship vacancies currently being discussed for next year, and so NO DOUBT DUKE CAN ACCOMODATE MORE THAN JUST TWO ADDITIONS (as that seems to be the popular assumption of our ceiling right now). Players may transfer, others nay have offered to give up their scholarships for the year, there may be unknown others looking at going pro. Any number of things we aren't privvy to. But what we do know is that there's apparently at least 4 offers currently outstanding to those who would be new to Duke this coming fall -- TP, SM, AJ, and TZ apparently -- and I have absolute faith that K and staff know exactly what they arer doing.

I sure HOPE that we have such a problem as trying to find scholarships to cover all of those top-flight signees!!! :rolleyes:

Correct me if I'm wrong, which in regards to NCAA rules i could very well be, but since we recruited five players last year (Rivers, Cook, MP3, Murphy, and Gbinije) I believe we can only give scholarsahips to up to three recruits this year with the 5/8 rule (No more than five recruits in a year and eight every two years). Is this affected by Rivers leaving? I'm not sure how it works. I don't expect us to be bringing in more than three, just pointing out I believe the most we could get per NCAA rules is three.

[pfrduke]

Correct me if I'm wrong, which in regards to NCAA rules i could very well be, but since we recruited five players last year (Rivers, Cook, MP3, Murphy, and Gbinije) I believe we can only give scholarsahips to up to three recruits this year with the 5/8 rule (No more than five recruits in a year and eight every two years). Is this affected by Rivers leaving? I'm not sure how it works. I don't expect us to be bringing in more than three, just pointing out I believe the most we could get per NCAA rules is three.

The 5/8 rule is a thing of the past.

ETA: Link (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=1792535).

[Duvall]

Correct me if I'm wrong, which in regards to NCAA rules i could very well be, but since we recruited five players last year (Rivers, Cook, MP3, Murphy, and Gbinije) I believe we can only give scholarsahips to up to three recruits this year with the 5/8 rule (No more than five recruits in a year and eight every two years). Is this affected by Rivers leaving? I'm not sure how it works. I don't expect us to be bringing in more than three, just pointing out I believe the most we could get per NCAA rules is three.

5/8 rule has been gone for years. (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=1792535) The 13-scholarship limit may limit the size of Duke's class, though.

[Ichabod Drain]

The 5/8 rule is a thing of the past.

ETA: Link (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=1792535).

I was wondering why I had a hard time finding information on it. I am consistently living in the past.

[Indoor66]

5/8 rule has been gone for years. (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=1792535) The 13-scholarship limit may limit the size of Duke's class, though.

The 5/8 rule would play havoc with the Kentucky meme for basketball scholarship division, wouldn't it?

[nocilla]

The 5/8 rule would play havoc with the Kentucky meme for basketball scholarship division, wouldn't it?

St John's would have had a little trouble too.

[Matches]

Didn't BC have nine freshmen or something like that last year? If BC was a Division I team they'd have had serious trouble....

[UrinalCake]

If BC was a Division I team they'd have had serious trouble....

Hey-ooooo!

[UrinalCake]

This seems like a case where a misplaced period makes a big difference. The way it's quoted on the main page and in the referenced article, Austin says


...we have a good recruiting class that could be even better if Shabazz [Muhammad] were to come to Duke. And they have a transfer.


But the way I've seen it quoted previously it was


...we have a good recruiting class that could be even better if Shabazz [Muhammad] were to come to Duke and they have a transfer.


In the latter case, he's saying that they could be better if Bazz comes and if they get a transfer, NOT stating a fact that the transfer has already happened. Big difference. Anyone have a clearer picture as to what he actually said, or an audio of the quote?

[CDu]

This seems like a case where a misplaced period makes a big difference.

...

In the latter case, he's saying that they could be better if Bazz comes and if they get a transfer, NOT stating a fact that the transfer has already happened. Big difference. Anyone have a clearer picture as to what he actually said, or an audio of the quote?

That's an excellent point. Illustrates the danger of reading a transcription of a quote. Those are two VERY different statements.

[airowe]

Here's the audio of the interview: http://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke/audio/10920485/?id_related=3297567

[CDu]

Here's the audio of the interview: http://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke/audio/10920485/?id_related=3297567

That certainly sounds like he is suggesting we have a transfer. I'm guessing he means Zeigler. And I'm guessing it's a combination of a slip of the tongue and lack of complete information.

[airowe]

That certainly sounds like he is suggesting we have a transfer. I'm guessing he means Zeigler. And I'm guessing it's a combination of a slip of the tongue and lack of complete information.

Well, Kyrie did let the DeAndre Daniels cat out of the bag last year: http://www.ballinisahabit.net/2011/04/did-kyrie-irving-scoop-deandre-daniels.html

[UrinalCake]

That certainly sounds like he is suggesting we have a transfer. I'm guessing he means Zeigler. And I'm guessing it's a combination of a slip of the tongue and lack of complete information.

That would mean that not only is Zeigler coming but they already know that his appeal will be upheld and he'll be immediately available. Seems unlikely that that much information is out there, has not been announced, but was shared with Austin (though not impossible I guess).

[CDu]

Well, Kyrie did let the DeAndre Daniels cat out of the bag last year: http://www.ballinisahabit.net/2011/04/did-kyrie-irving-scoop-deandre-daniels.html

Yeah, just evidence that these guys don't always have complete information, despite being very close to the team. On an unrelated note, I'm really regretting that we didn't get the unbelievable difference-maker Deandre Daniels...

12.1 mpg, 3.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 34.1 fg%, 24.0 3pt%, 80.0 ft%, 0.68 A/TO

[FerryFor50]

Yeah, just evidence that these guys don't always have complete information, despite being very close to the team. On an unrelated note, I'm really regretting that we didn't get the unbelievable difference-maker Deandre Daniels...

12.1 mpg, 3.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 34.1 fg%, 24.0 3pt%, 80.0 ft%, 0.68 A/TO

To be fair, he did have Oriakhi as a roadblock... *snicker*

[airowe]

Yeah, just evidence that these guys don't always have complete information

Just because DeAndre didn't end up at Duke doesn't mean that information wasn't correct at the time. I think it's more evidence that things can change rapidly in the recruiting process.

[CDu]

Just because DeAndre didn't end up at Duke doesn't mean that information wasn't correct at the time. I think it's more evidence that things can change rapidly in the recruiting process.

Did Daniels ever commit to come to Duke? Because that's the implication Irving made. As such, I think that the information was probably incorrect at the time. I'm obviously not well informed, but based on that quote I'd say he was providing incorrect information. Maybe he was misquoted, so it is hard to say.

[FerryFor50]

Did Daniels ever commit to come to Duke? Because that's the implication Irving made. As such, I think that the information was probably incorrect at the time. I'm obviously not well informed, but based on that quote I'd say he was providing incorrect information. Maybe he was misquoted, so it is hard to say.

It's also possible that Daniels told Irving one thing and then went and did another. Or maybe UConn made an offer he couldn't refuse... free laptops (http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/10589616/) maybe?

[MChambers]

Yeah, just evidence that these guys don't always have complete information, despite being very close to the team. On an unrelated note, I'm really regretting that we didn't get the unbelievable difference-maker Deandre Daniels...

12.1 mpg, 3.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 34.1 fg%, 24.0 3pt%, 80.0 ft%, 0.68 A/TO
I looked him up yesterday. Didn't have much of a season. If only he had come to Duke, or Carrick Felix or Roscoe Smith, or if Olek had not transferred. . .

[tommy]

I looked him up yesterday. Didn't have much of a season. If only he had come to Duke, or Carrick Felix or Roscoe Smith, or if Olek had not transferred. . .

Don't forget about Tyler Adams, the must-have space-eater down low that de-committed from Duke. He played four nondescript games at Georgetown (6 minutes per game avg.) before being sidelined for the rest of the year with concerns about his heart. Who knows what his future holds.

[airowe]

Did Daniels ever commit to come to Duke? Because that's the implication Irving made. As such, I think that the information was probably incorrect at the time. I'm obviously not well informed, but based on that quote I'd say he was providing incorrect information. Maybe he was misquoted, so it is hard to say.

Daniels would have been at Duke had he made it through the admissions process. Kyrie knew that at the time apparently but was not able to foresee those issues.

[CDu]

I looked him up yesterday. Didn't have much of a season. If only he had come to Duke, or Carrick Felix or Roscoe Smith, or if Olek had not transferred. . .


Don't forget about Tyler Adams, the must-have space-eater down low that de-committed from Duke. He played four nondescript games at Georgetown (6 minutes per game avg.) before being sidelined for the rest of the year with concerns about his heart. Who knows what his future holds.

Yeah, it's always dangerous to get too caught up with what you see in a high school prospect. Generally speaking, if they aren't a top 10-15 recruit, they aren't likely to start at Duke as a freshman and it's unlikely that they'll contribute very much right away. And just because they wait until the end of the recruiting period to sign doesn't mean they'll be an impact player. Probably things to keep in mind with regard to Jefferson and (perhaps) Parker. Muhammad (if he comes to Duke) and Sulaimon are more likely to contribute for us right away (and Muhammad more likely than Sulaimon).

[MaxAMillion]

Yeah, just evidence that these guys don't always have complete information, despite being very close to the team. On an unrelated note, I'm really regretting that we didn't get the unbelievable difference-maker Deandre Daniels...

12.1 mpg, 3.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 34.1 fg%, 24.0 3pt%, 80.0 ft%, 0.68 A/TO


Yeah, if he had come to Duke and performed like that it would have been proof that the coaches don't know how to develop frontcourt talent.

[Greg_Newton]

I looked him up yesterday. Didn't have much of a season. If only he had come to Duke, or Carrick Felix or Roscoe Smith, or if Olek had not transferred. . .

Of course, Daniel's stats were better than Gbinije's or Murphy's this year, Felix averaged 10.5 PPG and 4 RPG at ASU as an athletic, 6'6 defender, Olek averaged 13.6 and 6.3 RPG for Nevada, and Roscoe averaged 6.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 1.2 BPG as a long, athletic wing defender on UConn's championship team before falling off with the rest of the team this year. Then, of course, there's Terrance Ross, one of the best wing players in the country, who we passed on.

I'm not sure if any of these guys were billed as immediate stars, but I don't think it's laughable to suggest that they of them could have helped out team this year.

[jimsumner]

Of course, Daniel's stats were better than Gbinije's or Murphy's this year, Felix averaged 10.5 PPG and 4 RPG at ASU as an athletic, 6'6 defender, Olek averaged 13.6 and 6.3 RPG for Nevada, and Roscoe averaged 6.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 1.2 BPG as a long, athletic wing defender on UConn's championship team before falling off with the rest of the team this year. Then, of course, there's Terrance Ross, one of the best wing players in the country, who we passed on.

I'm not sure if any of these guys were billed as immediate stars, but I don't think it's laughable to suggest that they of them could have helped out team this year.

Academics played a role in several of these players being passed on.

[BD80]

Daniels would have been at Duke had he made it through the admissions process. ...

But uCon has so raised its academic standards that it deserves to have next year's post-season ban rescinded! [the gist of uCon's pending appeal] If there were academic issues, he couldn't have made it into such a bastion of higher education, could he?

[MCFinARL]

Daniels would have been at Duke had he made it through the admissions process. Kyrie knew that at the time apparently but was not able to foresee those issues.


Academics played a role in several of these players being passed on.

This is such an important point, which we tend to forget when we are fantasizing about this player or that player and wondering why every player that crosses the coaches' radar doesn't end up at Duke. At a school like Duke especially, fit isn't just a question of what happens on the court. It also has to do with fit with the program as a whole, and with the academic requirements of the university. Official statements from the Duke program respect the athlete's privacy (as they should) when academic issues derail an otherwise seemingly promising recruitment, so we should try to remember that this is always a possibility when an athlete who has committed to Duke changes his mind, or when what seems like a strong mutual interest between athlete and coaching staff ends in one or the other backing off.

[NSDukeFan]

This is such an important point, which we tend to forget when we are fantasizing about this player or that player and wondering why every player that crosses the coaches' radar doesn't end up at Duke. At a school like Duke especially, fit isn't just a question of what happens on the court. It also has to do with fit with the program as a whole, and with the academic requirements of the university. Official statements from the Duke program respect the athlete's privacy (as they should) when academic issues derail an otherwise seemingly promising recruitment, so we should try to remember that this is always a possibility when an athlete who has committed to Duke changes his mind, or when what seems like a strong mutual interest between athlete and coaching staff ends in one or the other backing off.

Wait a minute. Are you saying that Duke can't just predict who will end up being the best players in the incoming classes, making sure that over the four classes they have backups at all positions and getting them to accept offers?

[Devilsfan]

Duke was under out last president ranked #4 in the country in academics by USWorld & News, the magazine that reports rankings of all institutions. Under our current president's administration we are barely in the top ten, ranked # 10. Stanford is ranked far above Duke. I bring this up because of their success on the grid iron and now under Johnny, the hardwood seems to be following suit. Imagine what K could do with a few more of these recruits! I also think Cut has us headed in the right direction. Maybe we should loosen these requirements a little. These marginal academic athletes can succeed at Duke under our great teaching while bringing us millions (by success on the court) Everyone knows these revenues help in a major way to run the institution. We can help them succeed, so why deny them the opportunity if they want to come and learn under the best coaches on the Planet? We both win. The big word is if? Just my opinion. Go Devils!

[Des Esseintes]

Duke was under out last president ranked #4 in the country in academics by USWorld & News, the magazine that reports rankings of all institutions. Under our current president's administration we are barely in the top ten, ranked # 10. Stanford is ranked far above Duke. I bring this up because of their success on the grid iron and now under Johnny, the hardwood seems to be following suit. Imagine what K could do with a few more of these recruits! I also think Cut has us headed in the right direction. Maybe we should loosen these requirements a little. These marginal academic athletes can succeed at Duke under our great teaching while bringing us millions (by success on the court) Everyone knows these revenues help in a major way to run the institution. We can help them succeed, so why deny them the opportunity if they want to come and learn under the best coaches on the Planet? We both win. The big word is if? Just my opinion. Go Devils!

1. Those rankings are borderline meaningless. If a school is obsessed with the rankings--and parvenu Duke has at times been accused of exactly that in the past--there are ways to game its number to an extent. Such action don't really make it a better school.
2. If memory serves, Duke was ranked as high as #4 for only one year under Nannerl. Far more often we were in the 6-8 range.
3. Duke gets great players. DeAndre Daniels is not a compelling argument for compromising academic standards.

[gwwilburn]

Any news of late on Amile Jefferson?

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

Any news of late on Amile Jefferson?

I think it is a reasonable assumption that he is waiting to see what Mason and Calvin Leslie decide to do.