NCAA D1 Mens Tournament Bracket Discussion

[uh_no]

As the brackets are being released in the coming moments, I think its time for a new thread based on discussing the brackets rather than speculating about what they contain.

Let the games begin!

[uh_no]

suprise! # 1 team is uk.....

theyre in atlanta....which probably means

syracuse in boston

unc in st louis

msu in pheonix



not looking good....i'm gonna guess we're in atlanta with kentucky....

[pfrduke]

suprise! # 1 team is uk.....

And in Atlanta. SEC country trumps 14 miles.

[Bluedog]

Darn, UK is in the south. Was hoping Midwest. Want the 2 in the East.

[hurleyfor3]

We usually break these out by region

[1 24 90]

Kentucky in Atlanta. I don't like the way this is going.

[pfrduke]

So OSU is probably #2 in the midwest. It can't be us, and putting Kansas or Missouri there would give them a big home court over UNC (not that I would mind that...)

[pfrduke]

We usually break these out by region

Evans typically sets up the threads/polls. Is he around?

[uh_no]

Kentucky in Atlanta. I don't like the way this is going.

i think we'll be in atlanta with UK

kansas in stl with UNC

mizzouri in phoenix

OSU in boston

if we are with UK at least...it means we won't be with baylor...

[SCMatt33]

South is potentially back in play for Duke. Looks like Lunardi and Palm were wrong. They used linear distance not driving distance for UK. Well see...

[1 24 90]

If Greg Gumbel says games Friday/Sunday in Greensboro as he's unveiling the South Region, it's over. :p

[hurleyfor3]

Evans typically sets up the threads/polls. Is he around?

Oh, right. I can delete and set up new threads once we know every team if desired.

[Bluedog]

With Kansas, OSU, Mizzou and Duke being likely 2s, seems very likely we'll be 2 in south. But who knows.

[SCMatt33]

I'm more worried about our 3 seed right now than our 1 seed. So much stuff can happen by the elite 8.

[pfrduke]

With Kansas, OSU, Mizzou and Duke being likely 2s, seems very likely we'll be 2 in south. But who knows.

Well, they try to do it on an S-curve. So UK, supposedly, gets the weakest #2 (which may very well be us).

[uh_no]

well we have a big uconn kentucky matchup....

[Bluedog]

Well, they try to do it on an S-curve. So UK, supposedly, gets the weakest #2 (which may very well be us).

Well, geography is supposedly just as important it seems. If there's a strong 1 and 2, they balance it out with a weak 3 and 4 supposedly. UConn in second round not easy for UK! Although they'll probably lose to Iowa St since they've been so inconsistent.

[uh_no]

Well, geography is supposedly just as important it seems. If there's a strong 1 and 2, they balance it out with a weak 3 and 4 supposedly. UConn in second round not easy for UK! Although they'll probably lose to Iowa St since they've been so inconsistent.

If i'm UK, that's not the team I want to see in teh second round. If they're on, they can beat you, if they're off, they'll score 20 points all game....

[Bluedog]

Potential Brey-K matchup....Damn Baylor is our 3? gah...

[uh_no]

god....Uconn, UK, baylor, ND, duke

so much or easy roads...

[SCMatt33]

Baylor....Crap

[slower]

UNLV, too? Brutal.

[CLW]

Wow I'm not happy if I were a Kensucky fan.

[uh_no]

UNLV, too? Brutal.

well we can only face 1 of UNLV and Baylor...so the fact that they're both there doesn't mean too too much

[SCMatt33]

This is as close to nightmare scenario as possible. UNLV, Baylor, UK, Indiana are all terrible matchups for Duke. Notre Dame/Xavier is ok depending on who the other 7/10's are. The only good news is the travel/timing will be good if we get to regionals. No long flight and no Sunday-Thursday turnaround.

[CLW]

well we can only face 1 of UNLV and Baylor...so the fact that they're both there doesn't mean too too much

Honestly, I'm worried we won't survive the Notre Dame/Xavier winner.

[1 24 90]

So does Kansas get to play in St. Louis or do they go all the way to Boston?

[CLW]

So does Kansas get to play in St. Louis or do they go all the way to Boston?

Gotta think Boston with Ohio St. getting St. Louis / UNC

[uh_no]

Gotta think Boston with Ohio St. getting St. Louis / UNC

I was gonna bet the opposite...kansas in stl with OSU in boston

EDIT: and so it is

[CLW]

I was gonna bet the opposite...kansas in stl with OSU in boston

You win.

[slower]

Wow - tough bracket for Syracuse as well. So, looks like UNC gets a cake bracket.

[jamos14]

I agree, UNC looks to have the easiest bracket BY FAR.

[pfrduke]

I was gonna bet the opposite...kansas in stl with OSU in boston

EDIT: and so it is

Commence the Tar Heel whining. Traveling to St. Louis to play KU will be close to a road game.

[CoachJ10]

Looks like NC State is going to get screwed at the expense of the Big East love.

That loss to the Holes yesterday is going to be tougher for Pack fans to swallow.

[CLW]

Commence the Tar Heel whining. Traveling to St. Louis to play KU will be close to a road game.

Yeah they will have to hope allot of Mizzou fans bought tix. I don't think Mizzou fans will sell their tix to Kansas fans.

[uh_no]

Commence the Tar Heel whining. Traveling to St. Louis to play KU will be close to a road game.

really suprised they put UNC in STL and UK in ATL instead of vice versa

[pfrduke]

I agree, UNC looks to have the easiest bracket BY FAR.

Off the top of my head, it will be Kansas at 2, Michigan at 3, Georgetown at 4, San Diego State at 5.

[CLW]

Funny how the #1 overall seed by far has the toughest route by far. Possible in-state matchup in the 1st round. UConnvicts in round 2. Wichita St. or IU in sweet 16 and Baylor/Duke in the elite 8.

[uh_no]

Funny how the #1 overall seed by far has the toughest route by far. Possible in-state matchup in the 1st round. UConnvicts in round 2. Wichita St. or IU in sweet 16 and Baylor/Duke in the elite 8.

we have to wait and see what the full s curve is to see if this was due to the team ranking or is an actual disparity

[jamos14]

NC State got screwed.

Edit:Spoke too soon.

This regional is a joke. UNC has a cake walk.

[NashvilleDevil]

really suprised they put UNC in STL and UK in ATL instead of vice versa

I'm not. Atlanta is an SEC town and plenty of UK fans down there. Not sure about St. Louis

[CLW]

Great for the Pack

[Bluedog]

NC STATE MADE IT! woot woot!

[CoachJ10]

Atta boy, Pack. Good to see the NCAA got this one right.

[uh_no]

looking at the top 4 from each region, they are relatively balanced, I think

[slower]

Would love to see Kansas take down the Holes.

[uh_no]

Would love to see Kansas take down the Holes.

I'd love to see state take them down

[uh_no]

They pretty much just said the MSU OSU game determined the last 1 seed

FUrther Iona got in from their strong OOC SOS

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Would love to see Kansas take down the Holes.


As much as I would too, I work for StubHub and a potential KU/UNC game in St. Louis would be very nice for business. :)

Anyone catch the little error by CBS with the 32-2 record next to Kansas St?

[uh_no]

5 kansas
6 duke
7 OSU
8 missouri

again missouri was down due to the OOC.....so we got screwed!

but we'll have to see about the S curve for the 3 and 4 to see just how screwed we really got!

[jamos14]

Baylor #9 overall. Indiana #16 overall. That is a brutal region.

[uh_no]

Baylor #9 overall. Indiana #16 overall. That is a brutal region.

where are these numbers?

but that makes our total difficulty 32....which is 2 harder than the 34 for an average difficulty bracket....and yeah...we got hosed

[jamos14]

Just released on Tru TV. Notre Dame #25 UNLV #21

[weezie]

west virginia? why?

[uh_no]

Just released on Tru TV. Notre Dame #25 UNLV #21

yeah I'm seeing it....after the top 4, its tough just to fit the teams in using the rules, so i'm not too concerned about the 5+ seeds in each region....and at that point the differences between teams are so small, it almost doesn't matter

[MCFinARL]

where are these numbers?

but that makes our total difficulty 32....which is 2 harder than the 34 for an average difficulty bracket....and yeah...we got hosed

Well, yes, but--if those numbers are right, Duke is the team that makes the region 2 harder than the average, being a 6 rather than an 8. All of the other numbers are right. OH, wait--I get it. That means we got hosed. So, theoretically, did Baylor, which should be able to play the 8th ranked team rather than the 6th to advance, but in fact, given the matchups, I'd say it's worse for us.

[uh_no]

Well, yes, but--if those numbers are right, Duke is the team that makes the region 2 harder than the average, being a 6 rather than an 8. All of the other numbers are right. (Of course, as a 6, we shouldn't end up with a 9.) That being said, because of the matchups, I agree we got hosed.

or you could say we should have had the #11 overall....that would have also balanced the bracket.

[MCFinARL]

or you could say we should have had the #11 overall....that would have also balanced the bracket.

Agreed. Who was that?

[uh_no]

Agreed. Who was that?

not sure....i missed the first part of the show :/

i'm sure ESPN will have a full list up at some point.

[1 24 90]

I think the #11 was Florida St.

[Bluedog]

Agreed. Who was that?


not sure....i missed the first part of the show :/

i'm sure ESPN will have a full list up at some point.

11 was FSU so they couldn't put us with them. Ironically, if FSU had lost to UNC, we would have likely avoided Baylor. 12 was Georgetown, so we would have likely gotten them instead.

[uh_no]

I think the #11 was Florida St.

so that couldn't have happened anyway because of bracketing rules......urgh....i want the full list.... :|

[mgtr]

I think Kentucky would be a tough out for us, but if we get that far, then we are in the Elite Eight. I'll sign on to that.

[uh_no]

Alright. I ran some numbers

So who exactly has the toughest paths to the title? to each round? Which regions/subregions/pods are the most difficult? all of your questions are answered here!

2457
How to read this chart: there are a few numbers for each team. So to the left of the team is the seed, then the team name, then the overall seed....then comes the fun stuff

The next 7 columns represent how difficult the path would be for a team worst case. So take duke, we see

60 25 85 21 106 1 107

60 is the difficulty of our first round game
25 is the difficulty of our second game
85 is the sum of the first two (or the difficulty of reaching the sweet 16....the lower the number, the harder the road, obviously)
21 is the difficulty of our sweet 16 game
106 is the sum of all the previous games (difficulty of reaching the elite 8)
1 is the difficulty of our elite 8
107 is the sum of all the previous games, or the difficulty of reaching the final 4.


the next 4 colums are the average seed of each pair of teams, subregion, half region, and region.


So what do we see?

Duke has the toughest road of the 2 seeds for reaching the sweet 16, for reaching the elite 8, and for reaching the final 4. So by all counts, we got hosed.

for those that are interested, the difficulty of reaching the sweet 16 for the top 16 teams is

uk 98
su 96
ncu 95
msu 94
mizz 90
ku 87
osu 86
duke 85
gtwn 81
fsu 80
bu 77
wis 73
ul 73
iu 72
marq 72
mich 69

So while we got hosed, the real loser here is marquette, who despite being the #10 overall seed, has the second hardest road among the top 16 teams....harder than 3 of the 4 4 seeds. The numbers for the elite 8 are as follows

uk 113
mizz 113
ku 111
su 110
msu 110
osu 108
unc 108
duke 106
(just to point out the drop off, for the easiest 3 seed, its fsu...and they only have 87)

As I mentioned, we also have the hardest path to the final four (with UNC having the third hardest....nice consolation prize).

Since we aren't guaranteed to be playing the best seed, it also makes sense to look at the average of the team we'll play each round. These numbers are not as egregious for any particular round, but what that means is that our top seeds our harder and the bottom seeds our weaker....I guess that's one way to balance a bracket? "yeah we'll give them the toughest 1,2,3 and 4 seeds and balance them with the worst 13,14,15 and 16 seeds"

So pretty much any way you slice it, we have the toughest road.

[FerryFor50]

Alright. I ran some numbers

So who exactly has the toughest paths to the title? to each round? Which regions/subregions/pods are the most difficult? all of your questions are answered here!

2457
How to read this chart: there are a few numbers for each team. So to the left of the team is the seed, then the team name, then the overall seed....then comes the fun stuff

The next 7 columns represent how difficult the path would be for a team worst case. So take duke, we see

60 25 85 21 106 1 107

60 is the difficulty of our first round game
25 is the difficulty of our second game
85 is the sum of the first two (or the difficulty of reaching the sweet 16....the lower the number, the harder the road, obviously)
21 is the difficulty of our sweet 16 game
106 is the sum of all the previous games (difficulty of reaching the elite 8)
1 is the difficulty of our elite 8
107 is the sum of all the previous games, or the difficulty of reaching the final 4.


the next 4 colums are the average seed of each pair of teams, subregion, half region, and region.


So what do we see?

Duke has the toughest road of the 2 seeds for reaching the sweet 16, for reaching the elite 8, and for reaching the final 4. So by all counts, we got hosed.

for those that are interested, the difficulty of reaching the sweet 16 for the top 16 teams is

uk 98
su 96
ncu 95
msu 94
mizz 90
ku 87
osu 86
duke 85
gtwn 81
fsu 80
bu 77
wis 73
ul 73
iu 72
marq 72
mich 69

So while we got hosed, the real loser here is marquette, who despite being the #10 overall seed, has the second hardest road among the top 16 teams....harder than 3 of the 4 4 seeds. The numbers for the elite 8 are as follows

uk 113
mizz 113
ku 111
su 110
msu 110
osu 108
unc 108
duke 106
(just to point out the drop off, for the easiest 3 seed, its fsu...and they only have 87)

As I mentioned, we also have the hardest path to the final four (with UNC having the third hardest....nice consolation prize).

Since we aren't guaranteed to be playing the best seed, it also makes sense to look at the average of the team we'll play each round. These numbers are not as egregious for any particular round, but what that means is that our top seeds our harder and the bottom seeds our weaker....I guess that's one way to balance a bracket? "yeah we'll give them the toughest 1,2,3 and 4 seeds and balance them with the worst 13,14,15 and 16 seeds"

So pretty much any way you slice it, we have the toughest road.

I can't complain too much about the difficulty for the Devils. They were the last #2 seed.... reap what you sow.

Kentucky has a real gripe, but I'm glad they got hosed.

[freshmanjs]

I can't complain too much about the difficulty for the Devils. They were the last #2 seed.... reap what you sow.

Kentucky has a real gripe, but I'm glad they got hosed.

no they weren't.

[uh_no]

I can't complain too much about the difficulty for the Devils. They were the last #2 seed.... reap what you sow.

Kentucky has a real gripe, but I'm glad they got hosed.

no. we were the second best 2 seed, #6 overall.

[FerryFor50]

no. we were the second best 2 seed, #6 overall.

Oh, then never mind then. WE GOT HOSED! :p

[uh_no]

Oh, then never mind then. WE GOT HOSED! :p

dey took 'r jobs!

[FerryFor50]

dey took 'r jobs!

der der derrrrrrr!

[Nugget]

I'm certainly impressed with the amount of work that went in to assessing the relative difficulty of each team's path compared to their position on the S-Curve (and credit to the NCAA for actually releasing it).

But, the griping fails to account for the fact that the Committee's other seeding/bracketing principles would have compelled it to set us up with Baylor in the regionals (and, thus, given us the "harder" road) no matter what.

Had they followed the S-Curve strictly, they would have needed to put #5 Kansas in the West (#4 Mich St), could not have put us with #3 UNC in the Midwest, so would have us as #2 in the East with Syracuse.

But, then, of the 3 seeds, the highest, Baylor (#9) could not be matched with #8 Mizzou, we could not match up with #11 Florida St., and neither #9Marquette or #12 Georgetown could be put in the same region as Syracuse.

Then of the 4 seeds, only the lowest one (Louisville) could be in the West, as the other three Big 10 teams (Wisc, Indiana, Michigan) couldn't be put in the same region as #1 seed Michigan St.

So, this was the most possible balance/adherence to the S-Curve the Committee could have done given the other constraints it faced.

East (32)
1-Syracuse (2)
2-Duke (6)
3-Baylor (9)
4-Indiana (15)

South (33)
1-Kentucky (1)
2-Mizzou (8)
3-Marq (10)
4-Wisc (14)

Midwest (33)
1-UNC (3)
2-Ohio St. (7)
3-Marq (10)
4-Michigan (13)

West (36)
1-Mich St. (4)
2-Kansas (5)
3 Georgetown (11)
4-Louisville (16)

Is that road really much less difficult for us? Basically, the only difference is if we make the Elite 8 we'd play Syracuse instead of Kentucky? Hard to see that a much of a beef.

[Nugget]

Oops. Of course, Marquette can't play twice. Florida St. would have needed to be in the South, and Georgetown in the West was #12 on the S-curve, which would make the West's relative weakness slightly more pronounced.

[tommy]

I'm certainly impressed with the amount of work that went in to assessing the relative difficulty of each team's path compared to their position on the S-Curve (and credit to the NCAA for actually releasing it).

But, the griping fails to account for the fact that the Committee's other seeding/bracketing principles would have compelled it to set us up with Baylor in the regionals (and, thus, given us the "harder" road) no matter what.

Had they followed the S-Curve strictly, they would have needed to put #5 Kansas in the West (#4 Mich St), could not have put us with #3 UNC in the Midwest, so would have us as #2 in the East with Syracuse.

But, then, of the 3 seeds, the highest, Baylor (#9) could not be matched with #8 Mizzou, we could not match up with #11 Florida St., and neither #9Marquette or #12 Georgetown could be put in the same region as Syracuse.

Then of the 4 seeds, only the lowest one (Louisville) could be in the West, as the other three Big 10 teams (Wisc, Indiana, Michigan) couldn't be put in the same region as #1 seed Michigan St.

So, this was the most possible balance/adherence to the S-Curve the Committee could have done given the other constraints it faced.

East (32)
1-Syracuse (2)
2-Duke (6)
3-Baylor (9)
4-Indiana (15)

South (33)
1-Kentucky (1)
2-Mizzou (8)
3-Marq (10)
4-Wisc (14)

Midwest (33)
1-UNC (3)
2-Ohio St. (7)
3-Marq (10)
4-Michigan (13)

West (36)
1-Mich St. (4)
2-Kansas (5)
3 Georgetown (11)
4-Louisville (16)

Is that road really much less difficult for us? Basically, the only difference is if we make the Elite 8 we'd play Syracuse instead of Kentucky? Hard to see that a much of a beef.

Very good stuff. I did the same thing myself but just didn't post it. Only minor quibble with yours is when you get to the 4 line, you're going "back" on the S-curve, meaning you're starting in the west with what should by all rights be the #13 team, if there are no prohibitions on that team being placed there. But in this case, #13 Michigan couldn't go there, because they'd be matched up with conference mate Michigan State in the Sweet 16. No good. So you'd want to move Michigan to the next more difficult region, or more properly, to the region where they'd face the next higher rated team in the Sweet 16, which would be UNC in the Midwest. Good, fits there.

So then you'd go to 14, wihch is Wisconsin and see if they fit where Michigan should've gone. But Wiscy is also Big 10, so they can't go west with Michigan State either, so they slide over to the next highest slot, wihch is the East.

Then go to 15 -- another Big 10 team! Indiana can't go west either, so they get the south with Kentucky, leaving #16 Louisville getting lucky and avoiding Kentucky and getting the fourth of the #1 seeds as its Sweet 16 matchup -- they get to play #4 instead of #1.

So I'd have it as:

South:
Kentucky - 1
Missouri - 8
Marquette - 10
Indiana - 15

East:
Syracuse - 2
Duke - 6
Baylor - 9
Wisconsin - 14

Midwest:
UNC - 3
Ohio State - 7
FSU - 11
Michigan - 13

West:
Michigan St - 4
Kansas - 5
Georgetown - 12
Louisville - 16


Still Duke would be in the region that would "add up" to the lowest seed number, meaning the toughest, and Duke would still be in there with Baylor, but had they done it this way the committee would've been bulletproof, once you accept their S-curve rankings.

[Jderf]

Seriously great stuff, tommy and nugget. Man, this board just keeps approaching a near-academic rigor. How long before our posts are subject to peer-review?

[DukeGirl4ever]

I didn't know where this belonged (or if it was posted already), so hopefully it works here!

Vote for Mason, Miles, and Marshall in the ESPN tournament bracket challenge for NCAA's coolest name!
We need to vote for them! They're up against James Michael McAdoo!

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/poll/_/id/4698#top

[Nugget]

Thanks for the correction, Tommy.

[Kedsy]

Midwest:
UNC - 3
Ohio State - 7
FSU - 11
Michigan - 13

Is FSU allowed to be in UNC's region?

[uh_no]

Is FSU allowed to be in UNC's region?

I believe the rule only exists for 1 and 2 seeds....they try to separate them, but its not always possible, as has been the case with the big east recently (i think?), when they had >4 top 4 seeds. After that, teams from the same conference may not meet until the regional finals, unless the conference has >7(?) teams in which case they can meet in teh second round.

[CDu]

Is FSU allowed to be in UNC's region?

I believe you are correct. Wherever possible, the committee tries to avoid pairing two "protected" (1-4) seeds from the same conference in the same region. Sometimes that's not possible. But in this case, it was possible to separate all the protected seeds by conference. It just worked out that we had to be paired with Baylor because Baylor was the . I would have preferred the East region with Syracuse and Baylor, but c'est la vie.