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View Full Version : Can the offense be fixed in time for the NCAAs?



hq2
03-10-2012, 10:58 PM
Folks, I think it's become clear in the last couple of games (VT especially, but also FSU) that there are a lot of things wrong with
the offense right now, and not much time to fix it. Basically, the way it looks to me is that no one besides Miles and Austin
is stepping up, and even they haven't been playing all that well. Player by player, here's how it looks to me.

Austin - playing a lot of one on one again, forcing drives and ignoring teammates, like he did at the beginning of the year

Mason - jump hook has disappeared, making fouls and turnovers with regularity. Did he really play Thomas Robinson and
Jared Sullinger even early in the year? Boy, does that seem like a long time ago!

Miles- pretty decent by his standards, but still makes stupid turnovers and misses a lot of shots around the basket.

Seth - very guardable from 3 point range. Goes long periods without doing anything, then throws up an area-code 3.

Dre - completely disappeared. Not even getting the ball when he's open, and missing his shots or even getting swatted.

Tyler - still not good enough to be shooting unless the clock's winding down; so why did he take 14 shots against VT?

Kelly - injured, and won't be 100% when he comes back. However, even before he was hurt, he was fading , and his
rebounding and defense lately have not been good enough.

Hairston- has a decent jumper, but doesn't have the P.T. or confidence to use it.

Cook and Silent G - not good shooters.


Overall, we move the ball well, but in the end, no one seems to be open. We usually either throw the ball inside to the
Plumlees (high chance of a turnover on the inlet pass, since no one delivers off the dribble), Austin forces a drive, or
Seth or Tyler heave up a 3 with the clock winding down. Folks, it doesn't look good, and there isn't much time to fix it.
Any suggestions? Anyone think K can fix this mess in time?

uh_no
03-10-2012, 11:26 PM
I think you're discounting the affect that losing ryan has had on the offense. He is a huge matchup problem....a 6'10 guy who often plays in the perimeter. Whether he scores a lot of points or not is irrelevent as he's a contant threat and teams have to draw their 4 out of the paint to cover him (as you don't have to do with either of the plumlees.....and with hairston you can put a smaller guy on him...and he's just to as effective in general). This leaves one guy on the plumlee and he can't hedge on drives because there is no backup to rotate over since kelly could be out in nowheresville, drawing his man with him. this gives the driver a little more room, and if kelly's defender came in to help, kelly is open on the perimeter where he is a legit threat to shoot.

So pretty much any criticism of the offense these two days is irrelevant if kelly is cleared to play monday. If he's not, then we have a week to tweak things instead of what, 2 days?

COYS
03-10-2012, 11:46 PM
I think you're discounting the affect that losing ryan has had on the offense. He is a huge matchup problem....a 6'10 guy who often plays in the perimeter. Whether he scores a lot of points or not is irrelevent as he's a contant threat and teams have to draw their 4 out of the paint to cover him (as you don't have to do with either of the plumlees.....and with hairston you can put a smaller guy on him...and he's just to as effective in general). This leaves one guy on the plumlee and he can't hedge on drives because there is no backup to rotate over since kelly could be out in nowheresville, drawing his man with him. this gives the driver a little more room, and if kelly's defender came in to help, kelly is open on the perimeter where he is a legit threat to shoot.

So pretty much any criticism of the offense these two days is irrelevant if kelly is cleared to play monday. If he's not, then we have a week to tweak things instead of what, 2 days?

Perhaps, but I have noticed a little less variety in the offense over the past few games. We've seen a lot less of the pick n' pop with Ryan and a guard (usually Seth) even before he got injured. I like that play because it allows our guard to make a pass to the wing instead of a tougher entry pass to a rolling big in the post. Also, the opposing big who hedges when screened usually follows their instinct to hustle back to the post and takes a second to recognize that Kelly is actually spotting up at the three point line. But to a certain extent, I agree with your point even though I do think we should perhaps be a little concerned about what our offense is going to look like the rest of the way out. Not having Kelly on the court makes spacing much harder. I think Andre bore the brunt of it, actually. With Josh and Tyler on the court at the same time as Andre at times, it was near impossible for him to get open no matter how many screens we set for him. Now, a pump-fake would help (I think he'd lead the NCAA's in fouls drawn from behind the arc if he used it regularly), but I actually thought we tried to get him open virtually ever second he was on the court. Same is true with Seth. Part of this is FSU's length and VaTech's physicality, but we'll likely be facing teams like that in every round of the NCAA's except the first round. Also, Mason's game has flipped a bit. Earlier in the season he had the jump hook going and was passing well out of the post but he couldn't hit a FT. Now, he's having a harder time getting to his hook shot and seeing double teams, although his free throw shooting has been great.

Personally, I'd like to see a healthy Kelly ready to fire away from three off of pick n' pops and drive and kicks. I'd like to see us figure out a better way to get Seth and Andre open off of screens. I'd like to see Mason score a few more buckets in the post and continue his free throw shooting. I'd also like to see Tyler get hot ('cause he's going to be open, for sure). Otherwise, I think we just need a little more attention to detail. We had sloppy turnovers in the first half against FSU that prevented some easy buckets. We've also missed quite a few open looks from three, which we will hopefully not do quite as frequently in the coming games. Finally, sometimes we need to make one more pass. I feel as though our ball movement has stagnated a bit.

On the bright side, our defense has been much better!

aav2aav2
03-10-2012, 11:52 PM
There was a beautiful play FSU ran at some point where they ran a screen for Snaer; he caught it at top of key; he looked like he was going to pop a 3, but then drove and found a big man wide open.

I'd like us to do this with Curry. Run some more active screens for him; Curry catches ball of screen; fakes a 3 or a long jump shot, then starts dribbling into the lane. His man is likely to be behind him and therefore he'll have an open 15 foot jumper (which he is good at), or someone will have to help. I see Curry try to create too much, I thinnk he needs to become more catch and shoot; or catch, shoot, dribble twice and take quick action.

SCMatt33
03-10-2012, 11:59 PM
I don't think anything we saw this weekend was anything other than what we had already, plus the effects of losing Ryan. The Plumlees have been very limited all year against teams with size. It's remarkable that when you look at all of their best games, chances are that the front line that they went up against was undersized. They just can't score consistently when guarded by guys as big as they are. On the outside, Duke for years has used great spacing to help spread the D and get guys open. This year, that has worked particularly well when Duke regularly has 4 guys on the floor who the defense has to worry about. Without Ryan though, it's easier to press up on the shooters. Teams will now switch on everything because they aren't particularly worried about our guards blowing by them, so screens aren't getting guys open. With that happening, Duke's letting Thornton play big minutes. There's no point in playing a guy like Andre if he can't get open. He brings absolutely nothing else to the team. He's a mediocre defender, a pretty bad driver, and doesn't really distribute. He's the only guy on the team who will have games with over 20 points where every single one of them come off of three's or being fouled on threes.

This isn't like other years where guys go into a shooting slump. Our shooting is way down because guys can't get open. If Ryan doesn't come back, and come back as effective as he was before, Duke will really struggle to ever reach 70 against a team with size. The good new is that not everyone has size. There's no real way to know exactly who will end up in 7-10 games, so it's tough to speculate, but the 3 seeds have pretty well established themselves. Out of them, Marquette and Michigan have very little size, and Georgetown is smaller than most Georgetown teams. The only one with real size is Baylor. It's certainly not out of the question for Duke to get the right matchups, but they will struggle with a bad matchup whether its a really talented team or a not so talented team.

UrinalCake
03-11-2012, 12:10 AM
Well a positive way of looking at things might be to say that whatever teams we face in the NCAAT won't have the same degree of familiarity with us as VT and FSU (and UNC, for that matter). I think they've figured out how to defend us from playing us three times. Plus, they're pretty good defensive teams to begin with. I do agree however that our offense has stagnated recently, whether it be from defenses figuring us out, players getting complacent, or just plain missing shots.

Mason's problem - which I've been saying all year - is that he just takes to long to do anything with the ball. He catches it outside the lane, stands there for several seconds, dribbles 7 or 8 times, then starts his move toward the basket. By that point there's just nothing there and his teammates have fallen asleep. He still hasn't developed any real post moves close to the basket and instead relies on alley-oops and put-backs to get his points.

Austin's play has been fine, I think he was tired after playing 40 minutes on friday. He needs to trust his teammates and I'm not sure he does right now.

Other than these two and Seth, everyone else on our team is essentially a role player. A team can thrive with three superstars and a bunch of guys who know their roles, but we've just seemed out of sync lately. Still, I think we might have one more good stretch of play left in us.

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 12:13 AM
The ACC tourney seems to usually be a defensive slugfest. If you look back the last few years there have been multiple games where we struggled offensively. Teams know each other so well. Difference then was we had STUDS (Singler, Smith, Scheyer, Henderson) and just better overall teams.

Not too worried about the offense. Been efficient all year

Kedsy
03-11-2012, 12:59 AM
Folks, it doesn't look good, and there isn't much time to fix it.
Any suggestions? Anyone think K can fix this mess in time?

Going into this afternoon's game, our offense was ranked 6th in the nation, according to Pomeroy. Our raw efficiency today was 93.7, which isn't so good, but since FSU's defensive efficiency for the season is 88.4, I doubt it will hurt our adjusted efficiency number so much.

So, assuming Ryan comes back, we've got at worst a top 10 offense. I wouldn't describe that as a "mess."

davekay1971
03-11-2012, 03:16 AM
I'm with Kedsy on this one. Our offense is far from a mess. Here's the deficiencies:

1) Kelly, who is a major matchup problem for most teams and tends to spread defenses by forcing the opponent's 4 out to guard the perimeter, was out. Hopefully he'll be back and able to play by Friday.

2) Both Curry and Dawkins have been off lately. If I knew how to break a shooter out of a slump, and lord knows if I knew how to make 'Dre a consistent scorer, I'd be sitting next to K in a nice suit right now. Hope one or both get their shot going, because we're better when those guys are hitting bombs.

I don't look at Mason or Miles as a problem, because while individually they are pretty erratic game to game, as a pair they tend to combine for a reasonably good low post production. Austin isn't a problem, as long as guys don't fall into the trap of standing and watching him.

Basically we're an offense, as we have been all season, with five primary scorers: Austin, Seth, Dre (every 2nd to 3rd game), Kelly, and the Plumlee (pick one or combine 2 for extra flavor). If RK can play and Seth is hitting, we're back to a top 5 offense. If RK can play and Seth and Andre are BOTH hitting, we're the best offense in the nation. I'll pray to the ortho gods for Kelly and someone else do a Vulcan mind meld to put Redick's motor into Andre, and we'll pop champagne in 3 weeks.

dukeofcalabash
03-11-2012, 04:39 AM
Folks, I think it's become clear in the last couple of games (VT especially, but also FSU) that there are a lot of things wrong with
the offense right now, and not much time to fix it. Basically, the way it looks to me is that no one besides Miles and Austin
is stepping up, and even they haven't been playing all that well. Player by player, here's how it looks to me.

Austin - playing a lot of one on one again, forcing drives and ignoring teammates, like he did at the beginning of the year

Mason - jump hook has disappeared, making fouls and turnovers with regularity. Did he really play Thomas Robinson and
Jared Sullinger even early in the year? Boy, does that seem like a long time ago!

Miles- pretty decent by his standards, but still makes stupid turnovers and misses a lot of shots around the basket.

Seth - very guardable from 3 point range. Goes long periods without doing anything, then throws up an area-code 3.

Dre - completely disappeared. Not even getting the ball when he's open, and missing his shots or even getting swatted.

Tyler - still not good enough to be shooting unless the clock's winding down; so why did he take 14 shots against VT?

Kelly - injured, and won't be 100% when he comes back. However, even before he was hurt, he was fading , and his
rebounding and defense lately have not been good enough.

Hairston- has a decent jumper, but doesn't have the P.T. or confidence to use it.

Cook and Silent G - not good shooters.


Overall, we move the ball well, but in the end, no one seems to be open. We usually either throw the ball inside to the
Plumlees (high chance of a turnover on the inlet pass, since no one delivers off the dribble), Austin forces a drive, or
Seth or Tyler heave up a 3 with the clock winding down. Folks, it doesn't look good, and there isn't much time to fix it.
Any suggestions? Anyone think K can fix this mess in time?

When Coach has had all year to "get it straightened out" and hasn't, there is no getting it straightened out! The problem is just as you described it, there is not one player with a complete game to build this team on, not one.

NYC Duke Fan
03-11-2012, 06:36 AM
Isn't it just possible that we just aren't as good as we think we are and the rankings say we are ? Coach K has done an outstanding job with this team all year and probably has gotten as much out of them as possible.

We just don't have the players as we did in past years...no senior or that matter no junior leadership on the team.

In answer to the question posed by this thread, the answer is NO, Coach K cannot fix the problem in time for the tournament mainly because he does not have the players to do it.

Matches
03-11-2012, 08:38 AM
The offense being in a slump isn't the same thing as the offense being fundamentally broken. We're dealing with the former, not the latter. Our guys just need to see some shots go down (and get Ryan back healthy) - both of those things seem do-able to me. Momentum is a fickle mistress.

wilko
03-11-2012, 08:49 AM
Coach K has done an outstanding job with this team all year and probably has gotten as much out of them as possible. In answer to the question posed by this thread, the answer is NO, Coach K cannot fix the problem in time for the tournament mainly because he does not have the players to do it.

In all fairness, the players have to execute when given the opportunities.
Josh accounted for himself reasonably well while filling in. No complaints.

When a Big sets a high screen and the D re-sets to the ball. I'd like to see the big cut to the basket for a give and go more often. So why don't we do that and make the D pay? I think it has something to do with "trust". Miles blows at least 1 dunk a game and the Plumlees have cut down on their fouls by the team not putting them in position to foul in situations like that. If the G's give up the ball in a give'n-go our Bigs have a high probability of a charge or turn over if they have to put the ball on the floor.

Players gotta execute that kinda thing better. Tell 'em and diagram it to high Hades... but they have to do something productive.

Matches
03-11-2012, 08:52 AM
When a Big sets a high screen and the D re-sets to the ball. I'd like to see the big cut to the basket for a give and go more often. So why don't we do that and make the D pay? I think it has something to do with "trust". Miles blows at least 1 dunk a game and the Plumlees have cut down on their fouls by the team not putting them in position to foul in situations like that. If the G's give up the ball in a give'n-go our Bigs have a high probability of a charge or turn over if they have to put the ball on the floor.

Players gotta execute that kinda thing better. Tell 'em and diagram it to high Hades... but they have to do something productive.

I think our guards are not particularly good passers. Kind of hard to imagine on a perimeter-oriented team, but often it looks to me like our guards miss their window of opportunity to make that entry pass.

wilko
03-11-2012, 08:59 AM
I think our guards are not particularly good passers. Kind of hard to imagine on a perimeter-oriented team, but often it looks to me like our guards miss their window of opportunity to make that entry pass.

huh... I suppose that's very possible. I think would prefer that explanation over a lack of trust... but either way its the same net result on the floor.

davekay1971
03-11-2012, 09:00 AM
I think our guards are not particularly good passers. Kind of hard to imagine on a perimeter-oriented team, but often it looks to me like our guards miss their window of opportunity to make that entry pass.

Basically we have one guard who is a true playmaker, and that's Cook. And, between injury, inexperience, and defensive deficiencies, he's not been on the court to be that playmaker. Our other natural point guard is a defensive specialist and a reliable but unspectacular passer (I wouldn't truly call Thornton a playmaker). I find it kind of amazing that we have such a highly ranked offense with no true playmaker. Imagine how this offense would run with Bobby Hurley or (ugh) Kendall Marshall running the point. The other guards are natural scoring guards, while Seth has made a noble effort to become a point guard, with mixed success.

I have high hopes for Cook next season. With some time to recover from injury and work on his injury, I'm hopeful he can be on the court as our primary playmaker. If he can be that guy, our offense could hum at an even higher level next season.

bob blue devil
03-11-2012, 09:16 AM
as long as we have austin rivers, i wouldn't count this duke team out. we've seen it time and time again - star players carry their teams in the tourney. austin rivers is a star. fsu is one of the best defensive teams in the country and they barely kept him in check (w/some assistance from the zebras IMO, but that's not relevant here). he is capable of putting this duke team on his back.

mgtr
03-11-2012, 09:30 AM
Talk about Debbie Downer! After reading through this thread, I can't figure how we won more than 2-3 games all year.

Seriously, we are a pretty good team. If we are hitting our threes, we are a very good team. We obviously missed Ryan this week, but we have had difficulty at times this year even with him, so that doesn't explain it all. I don't think this team will be magically improved by Friday -- we have what we have. I doubt that coach has any additional magic to get from his magic twanger this year.

No matter what, we are a pretty good team. I will be watching the big dance, and still cheering for Duke.

bob blue devil
03-11-2012, 09:43 AM
well i disagree, but i don't think i can disprove your reasoning. i get where you are coming from - carmelo anthony syndrome, right?
a few things to think about:
- his defense is probably the best on the team - and that is our biggest weakness
- his shot numbers aren't extraordinarily high and he doesn't get the ball every possession, so i don't think he's stifling other players in their offensive game
- while he started the year a poor passer, his drive and dish is, IMO, lethal at the moment (and this is where not having kelly hurts us); in the acc tourney it turned into wide open looks for... Tyler Thornton (wawa); thornton needs to be able to convert those - you can't have a point guard shooting in the 20s for wide open 3's; i don't put that on rivers
- he's got fire, he's clearly out there to win the game/beat the other team whatever it takes - these are qualities we admire in thornton and we should likewise value them in rivers
- his rate of improvement has been extremely impressive, so, first, i think he continues to improve (brilliant!); but second, and i correct me if i'm making a wrong assumption, i think it's reflective of him being a very hard worker/dedicated to improvement; having your best player work hard usually rubs off on the rest of the team and is what championship teams are made of

i want rivers back in a bad way; i think he could have a legendary season next year.

slower
03-11-2012, 09:45 AM
My impression of Austin is that he'll try to distribute the ball if others are having good games, but he has no problem at all "taking over" if other guys aren't getting it done.

However, Austin Rivers is the best player on the team, NOT the problem.

davekay1971
03-11-2012, 09:57 AM
post bashing Rivers has been deleted

With all due respect, and admitting that my opinion is no more valid than yours, I think you're wrong. While there are times he needs to have some more trust in his teammates, I think that he actually is being about team even when he clearly focuses on getting his shot. Basically, the internal logic is probably, we need a bucket, and I'm think I'm the guy most likely to get it for us. Frequently, he's right. My evidence (circumstantial at best, granted) is his focus on defense. He's really, really improved his defense this year. Maybe you can argue that's due to a personal desire to raise his draft stock by convincing scouts that he'll be able to defend his position at the next level, and I assume that's part of his motivation. It should be, actually, since the kid's whole point at Duke is career prep...like every other student in the university, except his career is clearly in the NBA. But, at the same time, defense is also about team. The one part of Austin's game that has improved the most this year is his defense. It's abundantly clear he's worked hard on it. A kid who was only, solely focused on getting his stats and prettying up his resume would, IMO, focus less on defense and more on getting his shot in.

Another measure, statistics.

Austin has taken 360 FGA this season, the most on the team, but not by a huge margin. Curry has taken 308.
Austin has also played the most minutes (1021). Curry again second at 933. That puts Austin at 0.3536 attempts per minute of playing time. Curry at 0.3301. Not much difference there. Point scored runs basically the same pattern - Austin first, Curry second, points per shot attempt roughly equivalent (therefore, offensive efficiency relatively equivalent).

Whether or not that all means much, the stats don't paint any clear picture of Austin running well outside the norm of our guard-oriented offense in terms of shots attempted per minute played, points scored per shot attempt (ie: I would accept an accusation of Austin forcing his own shot at the detriment of the offense if his personal offensive efficiency was significantly lower than our other scorers). I chose Curry for the direct comparison because Austin and Seth are our two primary perimeter scorers. Austin and Seth both run higher than the rest of the team in terms of shots per minute played, but comparing Austin to a player who is not a primary scorer (ie: Tyler) or to an interior player (ie: Mason) seems invalid because of the relative roles of the players and relative focus of the offense.

CajunDevil
03-11-2012, 10:05 AM
We lost a very very physical game by 3 pts and had a chance to win it after being down by 10 midway in second half, without Ryan Kelly. While I agree K needs to tweak things this week - work on making the extra pass (Austin and Seth), post play, etc. - we are in decent shape heading into the Tourney.

CDu
03-11-2012, 10:13 AM
post bashing Rivers has been deleted

I think you're wrong. Rivers certainly has some weaknesses to his game. He only looks to pass as a last resort. He takes some ill-advised shots sometimes, especially from 3. He doesn't see the court well and can get blinders. He's not a great free throw shooter. He doesn't play well off the ball. For those reasons, I can see why you might come to your conclusion.

However, he's also our best on-ball perimeter defender. He's the only guy who can consistently create his own shot. While he's a high-volume shooter, he's typically been a pretty efficient scorer. And he has the guts to step up in crunch time - something our other players have shied away from at times.

It's also not fair to put the distribution issue on Rivers. He's a scoring SG, not a PG. He was brought in to score, and he's done that admirably. The problems lie elsewhere. We don't have great perimeter defenders. The fact that Rivers is our best perimeter defender while being only decent at it is a problem). We don't have great length at the 3. We are neither quick laterally nor very physically strong. We lack lateral quickness at the PF spot, which has been exploited by teams with more athletic PFs. And we don't have a PG who is strong with the ball in his hands and can set up all of our shooters.

If we had a Kendall Marshall, we'd be ridiculous offensively. Probably the best in the country on offense. Even without that, we've been remarkably good this season offensively. It's just that we're a team that is incredibly reliant on 3pt shooting. And when the 3pt shot isn't falling, we can be pretty inefficient offensively at times.

To be 27-6 without a playmaking PG, few good ballhandlers, limited quickness especially at PF, and only okay defense for most of the season is pretty impressive.

Matches
03-11-2012, 11:30 AM
It's also not fair to put the distribution issue on Rivers. He's a scoring SG, not a PG. He was brought in to score, and he's done that admirably. The problems lie elsewhere.

This. I'm not sure where the idea started that our SG is supposed to be dishing lots of assists. Most SGs don't. Austin is our best player, and as such it makes sense that he takes the most shots.

"Selfish" players are guys who care about their own stats *rather* than being focused on winning the game. I've not seen anything from 0 to make me think that's the case with him. If anything it's been the opposite.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 12:05 PM
post bashing Rivers has been deleted

No........you are absolutely right. And Duke needs to leave these one and done players alone in the future. Look at the Irving fiasco last year. Lets get back to bringing in kids who are here for the complete ride, 4 of 5 years. By the time they are seniors and completely understand the system, they will eat these freshmen super stars alive. How many times have we already seen this in the past ???

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 12:22 PM
post bashing Rivers has been deleted

My opinion on Rivers is he wants the team to win, badly. And at the same time he wants to be really good when Duke does win. I do think he is a bit selfish, but so are other players on this team. Rivers has had a spoiled upbringing (who wouldn't be, growing up in the NBA). If he does come back, then I believe that is a good example of him NOT being all about himself. Plus it gives the coaching staff one more year to mold the kid.

Bob Green
03-11-2012, 12:31 PM
Folks, I think it's become clear in the last couple of games (VT especially, but also FSU) that there are a lot of things wrong with the offense right now, and not much time to fix it.

I'm not convinced our offense is broken. I'll concede it wasn't running on all eight cylinders in the ACCT. My diagnosis is the absence of Ryan Kelly and Andre Dawkins. I'll talk about Dawkins more in a bit, but first let's take a look at Ryan Kelly. We miss his passing ability out of the high post. When Kelly receives a pass at the elbow followed by Rivers or Curry swinging around behind him several options open up including the pick and pop, a high-low pass or Kelly driving with the ball. From the elbow, Kelly is a triple threat.

With Kelly sitting on the bench, with his foot in a boot and Miles Plumlee at the elbow with the ball the defense totally focuses upon the guard (Rivers or Curry) swinging around behind Miles for the pass. The defense knows Miles is going to hand the ball off and roll to the basket and they know the ball isn't going to be passed back to him. If Miles doesn't hand off the ball to the guard, the defense gets away with ignoring/slacking off him because Miles isn't going to shoot a 17 or 18 foot jump shot.


There's no point in playing a guy like Andre if he can't get open. He brings absolutely nothing else to the team. He's a mediocre defender, a pretty bad driver, and doesn't really distribute. He's the only guy on the team who will have games with over 20 points where every single one of them come off of three's or being fouled on threes.

I believe you have overstated your case. What Andre brings onto the court is forcing the other team to guard him. While it is obvious his confidence is shattered, our opponents must guard him at all times because if they forget about him he has the ability to explode. Dawkins torched FSU for 22 points so yesterday Leonard Hamilton designed his game plan to shutdown Dawkins. When Dawkins was on the court an FSU defender was in his chest and many times that defender was Michael Snaer.

The offense needs to get back to running on all eight cylinders and the two keys to this happening are restoring Ryan Kelly's health and Andre Dawkins' confidence.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 12:47 PM
Tyler Thornton is the only player on the court that is putting in a ' DUKE 110% EFFORT ". Thornton is leading by example when it comes to effort and execution, he just doesn't have the talent to back it up, but, boy he gives the effort. I don't know what has happened to Dawkins, he has just fallen off of the cliff. I think Duke needs to look at making some changes in recruiting and find those really good kids that come for the long haul. Just my opinion from 30 years of watching Duke basketball.

Starter
03-11-2012, 01:16 PM
Tyler Thornton is the only player on the court that is putting in a ' DUKE 110% EFFORT ". . Thornton is leading by example when it comes to effort and execution, he just doesn't have the talent to back it up, but, boy he gives the effort. I don't know what has happened to Dawkins, he has just fallen off of the cliff. I think Duke needs to look at making some changes in recruiting and find those really good kids that come for the long haul. Just my opinion from 30 years of watching Duke basketball.

Kyrie was one and done, deservedly so, and was a great standardbearer for the team then and now. Before that, you'd have to go back eight years to Deng, who was hardly spoiled or whatever. If these are legitimately your opinions, you might want to adjust them, or perhaps keep them to yourself since they make you look out of touch. It's not like we're talking about Kentucky here. (Not that I have as much a problem with their modus operandi as most do, but I digress.) The point is to attract elite talent and cultivate it into a team. Duke has the resources and uses them well.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 01:32 PM
Kyrie was one and done, deservedly so, and was a great standardbearer for the team then and now. Before that, you'd have to go back eight years to Deng, who was hardly spoiled or whatever. If these are legitimately your opinions, you might want to adjust them, or perhaps keep them to yourself since they make you look out of touch. It's not like we're talking about Kentucky here. (Not that I have as much a problem with their modus operandi as most do, but I digress.) The point is to attract elite talent and cultivate it into a team. Duke has the resources and uses them well.

John Wooden said about you young kids........" It's what you learn AFTER you know it all that counts ". LOL !
Boy, he was right. You said it all in this sentence :
The point is to attract elite talent and cultivate it into a team.
In the Duke " FIST " system, nobody is good enough to become a solid finger in one year. Hurley couldn't do it and if he couldn't master the Duke system in one year it simply can't be done. Cultivating a player into this system takes more than just one year, regardless of how good they are.

SCMatt33
03-11-2012, 01:45 PM
I believe you have overstated your case. What Andre brings onto the court is forcing the other team to guard him. While it is obvious his confidence is shattered, our opponents must guard him at all times because if they forget about him he has the ability to explode. Dawkins torched FSU for 22 points so yesterday Leonard Hamilton designed his game plan to shutdown Dawkins. When Dawkins was on the court an FSU defender was in his chest and many times that defender was Michael Snaer.

The offense needs to get back to running on all eight cylinders and the two keys to this happening are restoring Ryan Kelly's health and Andre Dawkins' confidence.

I think part of the problem with Andre is Ryan's absence. Before Ryan went out, Dre got a few decent looks but couldn't hit them. With Ryan out, he just couldn't get open at all. He got frustrated to the point where he tried to force a couple and got blocked once and traveled once on an up and down. His problem is that without Ryan on the court, teams are willing to switch anyone on to Dre, even big guys, because he hasn't punished them by beating anyone off the dribble or passing down to a Plumlee rolling to the post on a mismatch. Andre doesn't need a big window to get his shot off, but he hasn't been able to get any window lately, and hasn't shown himself capable of regularly giving the team much else. That's a big reason why in the last few games, he's come off the bench, and his minutes the rest of the game have been determined by whether he could get open and hit shots. If he was just missing open shots, I would agree that it's a mental issue, but he just can't get open at all, which to me is showing that the book is out on him, and to use a baseball reference, Ryan was the guy who protected him in the lineup. Without Ryan, teams won't throw him the proverbial fastball (cover him straight up) anymore.

Duke76
03-11-2012, 02:09 PM
I'm not convinced our offense is broken. I'll concede it wasn't running on all eight cylinders in the ACCT. My diagnosis is the absence of Ryan Kelly and Andre Dawkins. I'll talk about Dawkins more in a bit, but first let's take a look at Ryan Kelly. We miss his passing ability out of the high post. When Kelly receives a pass at the elbow followed by Rivers or Curry swinging around behind him several options open up including the pick and pop, a high-low pass or Kelly driving with the ball. From the elbow, Kelly is a triple threat.

With Kelly sitting on the bench, with his foot in a boot and Miles Plumlee at the elbow with the ball the defense totally focuses upon the guard (Rivers or Curry) swinging around behind Miles for the pass. The defense knows Miles is going to hand the ball off and roll to the basket and they know the ball isn't going to be passed back to him. If Miles doesn't hand off the ball to the guard, the defense gets away with ignoring/slacking off him because Miles isn't going to shoot a 17 or 18 foot jump shot.



I believe you have overstated your case. What Andre brings onto the court is forcing the other team to guard him. While it is obvious his confidence is shattered, our opponents must guard him at all times because if they forget about him he has the ability to explode. Dawkins torched FSU for 22 points so yesterday Leonard Hamilton designed his game plan to shutdown Dawkins. When Dawkins was on the court an FSU defender was in his chest and many times that defender was Michael Snaer.

The offense needs to get back to running on all eight cylinders and the two keys to this happening are restoring Ryan Kelly's health and Andre Dawkins' confidence.


The question I have in your post that I'd like to hear your opinion on is why does miles or mason not get the ball back on a pick and roll?

uh_no
03-11-2012, 02:12 PM
The question I have in your post that I'd like to hear your opinion on is why does miles or mason not get the ball back on a pick and roll?

I think its because we don't have PG with either the vision or the ability to make that pass. Kyrie could make that pass, Jon could probably make that pass. I don't think any of our guards can currently find a way to make it.

Bob Green
03-11-2012, 02:30 PM
The question I have in your post that I'd like to hear your opinion on is why does miles or mason not get the ball back on a pick and roll?

Answering your question from the specific perspective of yesterday's game against FSU, the Seminoles' guards are big so it was difficult for our guards to see the passing lane. Generally speaking, my hypothesis is our guards just are not good at delivering the pass. It seems to me, from my vantage point on my coach with a perfect view provided by multiple TV cameras, the opportunity is there but our guards hesitate and then the opportunity is gone. I'm sure confidence, or lack of, plays a role as well. Miles and Mason fumble passes at times which results in the guards reluctance to make the pass. Perhaps they fumble the pass because they are surprised the ball is coming back to them. It's the chicken or egg thing.

Duke76
03-11-2012, 02:54 PM
I think its because we don't have PG with either the vision or the ability to make that pass. Kyrie could make that pass, Jon could probably make that pass. I don't think any of our guards can currently find a way to make it.

Agree 100% only would say "any guards, point or shooting", therein is one of our material weakenesses...it leads to a very unbalanced offense which we have not seen at Duke in quite awhile, imo

uh_no
03-11-2012, 02:57 PM
Agree 100% only would say "any guards, point or shooting", therein is one of our material weakenesses...it leads to a very unbalanced offense which we have not seen at Duke in quite awhile, imo

Yes. Now, I think Quinn or Tyler can certainly get there....especially quinn. HE just needs more time, and he needs to get his defense good enough that he can stay on the floor. I'm sure that will be a huge point of emphasis this offseason for him.

Duke76
03-11-2012, 03:08 PM
Answering your question from the specific perspective of yesterday's game against FSU, the Seminoles' guards are big so it was difficult for our guards to see the passing lane. Generally speaking, my hypothesis is our guards just are not good at delivering the pass. It seems to me, from my vantage point on my coach with a perfect view provided by multiple TV cameras, the opportunity is there but our guards hesitate and then the opportunity is gone. I'm sure confidence, or lack of, plays a role as well. Miles and Mason fumble passes at times which results in the guards reluctance to make the pass. Perhaps they fumble the pass because they are surprised the ball is coming back to them. It's the chicken or egg thing.

Agree, you gotta keep going back to the big guys,,,they fumble ball away no more than the guards turn it over after the no pass

follyblue
03-11-2012, 09:54 PM
If it makes anyone feel better, I doubt we will see a team in the tourny better at perimeter defense than FSU, and they clearly made it a priority goal to shut down Dawkins. Is there anyone in the country who is better at that than Snaer? Dealing with very physical perimeter defense, probably through better passing, is likely a priority this week. And I do think Kelly is the answer to that both as a passer and a shooter.

Coach Collins was on one of the talk shows and mentioned that they have largely solved the defensive problems that plagued us earlier in the year, and now have to focus on offense. Hopefully with Kelly back passing and shooting and Dawkisn not facing a Snaer caliber defender, that will help.

AtlDuke72
03-13-2012, 02:59 PM
Yes. Now, I think Quinn or Tyler can certainly get there....especially quinn. HE just needs more time, and he needs to get his defense good enough that he can stay on the floor. I'm sure that will be a huge point of emphasis this offseason for him.

I have a hard time seeing this year's team going very far with the offense the way it is now. As much as I like Tyler Thornton, I think that Quinn Cook should get a lot more playing time. His defense does not seem that bad to me but I will admit that Coach K may know a little bit more about it than I do.

rsvman
03-13-2012, 04:05 PM
I have a hard time seeing this year's team going very far with the offense the way it is now. As much as I like Tyler Thornton, I think that Quinn Cook should get a lot more playing time. His defense does not seem that bad to me but I will admit that Coach K may know a little bit more about it than I do.

Quinn Cook, in my opinion, is our WORST on-ball defender. A lot of people on this board think that Dawkins is bad, but he's a lot better than Cook.

I love what Cook brings to the team on the offensive side, but as a defender he's got a lot of work and growing to do. I think he will eventually be an incredible spark-plug player; even now he brings a lot of energy off the bench. I look for him to be an extremely good player in the future. Right now, though, he hurts us on the defensive side.

Troublemaker
03-13-2012, 04:13 PM
This topic could almost be merged into the Ryan Kelly thread, imo.

If he returns, Austin and Seth have space to drive, which collapses most defenses, which leads to kickouts for open jumpers and/or offensive rebounding opportunities. Ryan makes everything possible and I don't believe the offense can be remedied in such a short amount time without him.

NSDukeFan
03-13-2012, 04:58 PM
This topic could almost be merged into the Ryan Kelly thread, imo.

If he returns, Austin and Seth have space to drive, which collapses most defenses, which leads to kickouts for open jumpers and/or offensive rebounding opportunities. Ryan makes everything possible and I don't believe the offense can be remedied in such a short amount time without him.

I agree that Ryan makes a big difference offensively. One other thing that will make a big difference is not playing FSU. One thing I thought FSU did better than any team I have seen this year was defend the pick and roll. With their big guards and heavy hedging by their bigs (which I believe is also what coach K and the Duke staff teach), Seth and Austin did not have an easy way to the hoop and no open 3s off the on-the-ball screen. Of course, they don't usually do that great a job looking for Miles and Mason off the pick and roll, but the Plumlees aren't great threats from outside 18 feet (5 feet for Mason ;).) With Ryan, the big can't temporarily ignore the screener, which might open things up for Seth and Austin. Ryan is another guy that can sometimes (not as often as Austin or Ryan) create some offense off the dribble for himself. I am hoping that the threat of Ryan (much like the threat of Andre) will open things up more for Seth and Austin to penetrate and/or get more open looks from outside.

I thought VT and FSU did two things very well against Duke. 1) Both teams did a great job on the wing pick-and-rolls and 2) they crowded Mason when he got the ball inside.
Someone mentioned in this or another thread that Mason sometimes takes a bit too long making his move. FSU took advantage of this and sent another defender and didn't give him time to make a move. With sometimes two (TT and Hairston) of our weaker offensive players on the floor at once, this didn't necessarily give Mason as many good options to pass out of to get good opportunities.

I am very happy that Duke's defense has gotten better the last few weeks and am hopeful that if Ryan can make it back and be an offensive threat and Duke doesn't play as good a defense as FSU for a bit, the offense can get back on track. Worse case scenario, Ryan doesn't make it back as a threat, Duke's offense doesn't play any better than it did this past weekend and Duke will have to scratch and claw its way to beat a top 15 team. Fortunately, that shouldn't happen this weekend, though if the team doesn't reach its offensive potential, there will likely be close games this weekend, where anything can happen.

stixof96
03-13-2012, 05:26 PM
Duke has everything they need to win this tournament. What did the 2010 team have that this team doesn't have? They have already beaten most of the better teams in the tournament, and the ones they lost too had a whole lot more to do with Duke playing poorly than the other team dominating them. Let's see how hungry these kids are, that's what it's all about now.

JayBean
03-13-2012, 05:45 PM
Duke has everything they need to win this tournament. What did the 2010 team have that this team doesn't have? They have already beaten most of the better teams in the tournament, and the ones they lost too had a whole lot more to do with Duke playing poorly than the other team dominating them. Let's see how hungry these kids are, that's what it's all about now.

Lance Thomas and Kyle Singler. Two 6-8 guys that can guard 2-4 effectively.

jv001
03-13-2012, 06:20 PM
Lance Thomas and Kyle Singler. Two 6-8 guys that can guard 2-4 effectively.

Plus Nolan Smith that could guard the opposing point guard and a 6'-5" shooting guard who was a very good off the ball defender who could go off for 20+ points. GoDuke!

dukebluelemur
03-13-2012, 06:41 PM
I think our guards are not particularly good passers. Kind of hard to imagine on a perimeter-oriented team, but often it looks to me like our guards miss their window of opportunity to make that entry pass.

IF you hit a big man's hands, they should hold on to it. Doesn't happen. I think there were at least half a dozen times against FSU where a guard hit one of the plumlees inside or cutting to the inside, and it bounced off their hands out of bounds or to FSU. That does not inspire trust.

superdave
03-13-2012, 07:09 PM
Duke has everything they need to win this tournament. What did the 2010 team have that this team doesn't have? They have already beaten most of the better teams in the tournament, and the ones they lost too had a whole lot more to do with Duke playing poorly than the other team dominating them. Let's see how hungry these kids are, that's what it's all about now.


Lance Thomas and Kyle Singler. Two 6-8 guys that can guard 2-4 effectively.


Plus Nolan Smith that could guard the opposing point guard and a 6'-5" shooting guard who was a very good off the ball defender who could go off for 20+ points. GoDuke!

It's so easy for us to compare 2012 Duke to 2010 Duke for obvious reasons. But they are so very different. Roles were better defined. The rotation was set in February and everyone was healthy.

This year, we struggle to guard athletic 3/4 guys. Lance could check the best 3/4 guy on the other team.

This year, we struggle to pressure the ball whereas Nolan was pretty good at that. We struggle to get into the passing lanes, partly because we dont pressure the ball well.

I think our offense has more potential right now, namely because we have a lot of guys who can have 20 point games - Andre, Seth, Austin, Mason, Ryan - and the rest of the rotation can score the ball decently well too. We depended an awful lot on the the Big 3 two years ago.

If Ryan is not available this weekend, I'd prefer to throw a combination of small ball and feeding the post at our opponents. I'd prefer more post play. Mason and Miles both have nice jump hooks and they simply need to get more looks and we need to make sure they post up deep in the lane.

But with the depth we have at guard we should go small and pressure teams full court for a couple of possessions each half. Our guard depth can be a weapon for us, but only if we use it. This could be a knockout punch for us and get us some easy buckets. We saw it a few times in December, and when we got down vs. State and Miami, but little the rest of the year.

elvis14
03-13-2012, 09:40 PM
IF you hit a big man's hands, they should hold on to it. Doesn't happen. I think there were at least half a dozen times against FSU where a guard hit one of the plumlees inside or cutting to the inside, and it bounced off their hands out of bounds or to FSU. That does not inspire trust.

I don't think they hit MP's half a dozen times in the last 4 games. Our bigs would be so much more effective if they would be given the ball at an appropriate time and place. I'm not saying the MP's are without blame (or issues with making catches) but our guards ability to make an proper entry pass and/or make a good pass on a pick and roll is seriously lacking. Ryan, Andre and Quinn are pretty good at making effective passes to MP*.

Kfanarmy
03-13-2012, 10:37 PM
The more I read this thread, the greater I think Duke's chances are of going deep in the tourney.

The ACCT showed a few things to me.

1) With about 4 days practice after losing RK, the team was completely competitive offensively and lost to FSU by three. So with RK the offense should be fine,,,,with a few more days practice, the offense is likely going to be ok even without him. With RK I think Duke would have won the ACCT

2) I think Duke's D stepped it up in the ACCT, and if they keep that intensity, they can go far...

3) This team has a lot more fight in it than it did early in the year. They will WILL themselves to win at some point in the NCAAT.

4) The bigs ARE rotating to the goal on the pick and roll...but aren't getting the ball. That is the one place I would LOVE to see the team tweak before Friday...but as others have stated it is dependant on the bigs catching the ball.

I'm excited for this team...frankly many of the problems you all see based on the ACCT don't recognize the incredible effort the Duke team gave in adjusting to play a top-25 team to the wire, less than a week after losing one of its doube digit scorers and a key to its offensive sets. A little faith folks. If kelly had gone out the week before he did, Duke still might have won the ACCT.

stixof96
03-14-2012, 12:32 AM
The more I read this thread, the greater I think Duke's chances are of going deep in the tourney.

The ACCT showed a few things to me.

1) With about 4 days practice after losing RK, the team was completely competitive offensively and lost to FSU by three. So with RK the offense should be fine,,,,with a few more days practice, the offense is likely going to be ok even without him. With RK I think Duke would have won the ACCT

2) I think Duke's D stepped it up in the ACCT, and if they keep that intensity, they can go far...

3) This team has a lot more fight in it than it did early in the year. They will WILL themselves to win at some point in the NCAAT.

4) The bigs ARE rotating to the goal on the pick and roll...but aren't getting the ball. That is the one place I would LOVE to see the team tweak before Friday...but as others have stated it is dependant on the bigs catching the ball.

I'm excited for this team...frankly many of the problems you all see based on the ACCT don't recognize the incredible effort the Duke team gave in adjusting to play a top-25 team to the wire, less than a week after losing one of its doube digit scorers and a key to its offensive sets. A little faith folks. If kelly had gone out the week before he did, Duke still might have won the ACCT.

i agree.....if #3 happens, they can win it all..........that's all i have been saying on here..........

ChicagoCrazy84
03-14-2012, 02:05 AM
The more I read this thread, the greater I think Duke's chances are of going deep in the tourney.

The ACCT showed a few things to me.

1) With about 4 days practice after losing RK, the team was completely competitive offensively and lost to FSU by three. So with RK the offense should be fine,,,,with a few more days practice, the offense is likely going to be ok even without him. With RK I think Duke would have won the ACCT

2) I think Duke's D stepped it up in the ACCT, and if they keep that intensity, they can go far...

3) This team has a lot more fight in it than it did early in the year. They will WILL themselves to win at some point in the NCAAT.

4) The bigs ARE rotating to the goal on the pick and roll...but aren't getting the ball. That is the one place I would LOVE to see the team tweak before Friday...but as others have stated it is dependant on the bigs catching the ball.

I'm excited for this team...frankly many of the problems you all see based on the ACCT don't recognize the incredible effort the Duke team gave in adjusting to play a top-25 team to the wire, less than a week after losing one of its doube digit scorers and a key to its offensive sets. A little faith folks. If kelly had gone out the week before he did, Duke still might have won the ACCT.


Let me preface by saying thank you! A little faith goes a long way and sometimes all it takes is one person believing to change the whole mood. My issue is...it wasn't just the ACCT that bothered me, it was at too many points this season, we had to rely on our will to win. We came back against UNC and won, thanks to a little bit of luck and we also came back against NCST to win thanks to a giant collapse on their part. It's just that too many times, we got down so much and now being in the NCAA Tournament, the quality of the opponent gets much better, and they'll have a will similar to ours. We still got beat down pretty badly at home the last game of the reg season and followed that up with a 60 pt output, and a 59. Doesn't exactly exude confidence. I like to think that with the tournament, our guys will come to play and we won't get down any large margin, but ugh, it happened too many times this season I can't be surprised to see it happen anymore. I hope I'm wrong, but I do not want to have to rely on our will to win because there are plenty of teams out there that will not let that happen to them.

Saratoga2
03-14-2012, 05:00 PM
The more I read this thread, the greater I think Duke's chances are of going deep in the tourney.

The ACCT showed a few things to me.

1) With about 4 days practice after losing RK, the team was completely competitive offensively and lost to FSU by three. So with RK the offense should be fine,,,,with a few more days practice, the offense is likely going to be ok even without him. With RK I think Duke would have won the ACCT

2) I think Duke's D stepped it up in the ACCT, and if they keep that intensity, they can go far...

3) This team has a lot more fight in it than it did early in the year. They will WILL themselves to win at some point in the NCAAT.

4) The bigs ARE rotating to the goal on the pick and roll...but aren't getting the ball. That is the one place I would LOVE to see the team tweak before Friday...but as others have stated it is dependant on the bigs catching the ball.

I'm excited for this team...frankly many of the problems you all see based on the ACCT don't recognize the incredible effort the Duke team gave in adjusting to play a top-25 team to the wire, less than a week after losing one of its doube digit scorers and a key to its offensive sets. A little faith folks. If kelly had gone out the week before he did, Duke still might have won the ACCT.

We have two big guys inside who are cometitive at a high level but are not so much scorers as rebounders and shot blockers. We have Austin, who is one of the better combo guards in the country, although still a little mistake prone as a freshman. We have Seth, who is a very good shooting guard and a decent defender. Having Ryan gives us more offensive flexibility, but only if he is hitting. He has had his off days, even when healthy..

Add the combo of point guards in Tyler and Quinn. Both have their strengths.

The sum total is a competitive team but certainly not overpowering in ways that Kentucky is as constructed. A big issue with Duke is the seemingly total collapse of Andre's game. Whatever has caused that to happen has certainly taken the team down a peg in overall capability. I don't see that getting fixed during the tournament. We can only speculate on what happened there and we probably would not be correct, so it isn't really worth pursuing.

So we have a competitve team, but one that is unlikely to advance to the final four. Every game will be a nail biter as we tend to have significant periods in games where the team doesn't play to it's potential That has really been evident for much of the season, and while the defense has improved, the offense is still without the punch we expect. At any rate, I will be rooting for the kids and will be satisfied they are trying their hardest to succeed.

Kedsy
03-14-2012, 05:08 PM
A big issue with Duke is the seemingly total collapse of Andre's game. Whatever has caused that to happen has certainly taken the team down a peg in overall capability. I don't see that getting fixed during the tournament.

Against Western Michigan, Penn, Temple, and Georgia Tech, Andre scored 2, 6, 0, and 6 points (against much poorer competition than his recent 5 game slide). He followed that up with 10, 24, 21, and 14. So I have no idea whether he will turn it around, but he certainly could. I disagree with your assessment that it's some sort of unfixable ailment.

jv001
03-14-2012, 05:12 PM
One thing I would like to see is Duke get off to a good start by scoring early. Way too many times we've not scored many points early in the first half. I look at the scoreboard and it looks like it will be a game in the 50's. With the offensive firepower we have; Austin, Seth, Ryan, Mason, and Andre we should put some points up early. When Andre scores well in the first half, we seem not to struggle on the offensive end. I'm hoping for a good start and a good game from Andre Friday night. GoDuke!

superdave
03-14-2012, 05:22 PM
4) The bigs ARE rotating to the goal on the pick and roll...but aren't getting the ball. That is the one place I would LOVE to see the team tweak before Friday...but as others have stated it is dependant on the bigs catching the ball.


I saw a lot of that vs. VPI and FSU. Mason and Miles rolled towards the rim, or at least into the block area, and di not even get a look from the ball handler. That's a problem. It makes it so easy to defend us because the help defender can recover and check the Plumlee that just rolled if the pass is not quick. Also, it allows the big man defender to tighten up on the ball handler for a little longer.

I also saw Andre flailing his arms the handful of times he was actually open last weekend. Both these issues tell me that Austin and Seth are hunting their shots a little more, and putting their heads down too much. They are our two best scorers, so I dont mind them shooting early and often.

But I do mind them ignoring something the defense is giving us, or not making the defense pay for mistakes.

Kfanarmy
03-14-2012, 07:06 PM
...It's just that too many times, we got down so much and now being in the NCAA Tournament, the quality of the opponent gets much better, and they'll have a will similar to ours. I'm just not so sure that the quality in the NCAAT is any greater than what Duke has been playing. Loss to Ohio State, Loss to UNC, two losses to FSU, win against KU, MSU, UNC, FSU...Duke has beaten half of the number ones, can beat all of the number twos (except hopefully Duke ;) ... I'm with you on the anxiety; the timing of RKs injury is bad, would have been less impactful say one or two weeks earlier, but I think they have as good a shot as anyone.

hq2
03-14-2012, 07:58 PM
It's just that too many times, we got down so much and now being in the NCAA Tournament, the quality of the opponent gets much better, and they'll have a will similar to ours. We still got beat down pretty badly at home the last game of the reg season and followed that up with a 60 pt output, and a 59. Doesn't exactly exude confidence. I like to think that with the tournament, our guys will come to play and we won't get down any large margin, but ugh, it happened too many times this season I can't be surprised to see it happen anymore. I hope I'm wrong, but I do not want to have to rely on our will to win because there are plenty of teams out there that will not let that happen to them.

To me it's not just about will, it's about matchups. Florida State is an example of a team that gives Duke matchup problems,
and there will be plenty more in the NCAAs, starting as early as Xavier, if they beat Notre Dame. Since we haven't seemed
to fix the offense to deal with these kinds of teams, I think we will still have problems scoring against them. Hard to see this
team beating any more FSU/Temple type teams. Not too optimistic about getting deep into the tournament.

CajunDevil
03-14-2012, 08:55 PM
The more I read this thread, the greater I think Duke's chances are of going deep in the tourney.

The ACCT showed a few things to me.

1) With about 4 days practice after losing RK, the team was completely competitive offensively and lost to FSU by three. So with RK the offense should be fine,,,,with a few more days practice, the offense is likely going to be ok even without him. With RK I think Duke would have won the ACCT

2) I think Duke's D stepped it up in the ACCT, and if they keep that intensity, they can go far...

3) This team has a lot more fight in it than it did early in the year. They will WILL themselves to win at some point in the NCAAT.

4) The bigs ARE rotating to the goal on the pick and roll...but aren't getting the ball. That is the one place I would LOVE to see the team tweak before Friday...but as others have stated it is dependant on the bigs catching the ball.

I'm excited for this team...frankly many of the problems you all see based on the ACCT don't recognize the incredible effort the Duke team gave in adjusting to play a top-25 team to the wire, less than a week after losing one of its doube digit scorers and a key to its offensive sets. A little faith folks. If kelly had gone out the week before he did, Duke still might have won the ACCT.


It's refreshing to read your post, thank you! I'm also excited by the toughness and defense we showed in the ACCT.

Chris Collins was on local talk radio in Charlotte this afternoon and discussed that Duke had a lot of good practice time the past few days. An area of focus was the "stagnant" offense we saw at ACCT. Collins mentioned Ryan Kelly's absence being a key to the stagnant offense we saw in ATL. Kelly's ability to stretch the defense and pull a Big out so that the court is more open for the Austin, Seth, and the Plumlees. Collins also mentioned that Kelly hasn't been cleared to play yet, but is progressing nicely. He wasn't sure about Ryan's status for Friday but is day-to-day and mentioned the foot is not experiencing any swelling, soreness or pain from the work he is doing now. I have a good feeling about this tourney... but then again, I'm prone to being overly optimistic :)

wallyman
03-14-2012, 09:07 PM
It's refreshing to read your post, thank you! I'm also excited by the toughness and defense we showed in the ACCT.

Chris Collins was on local talk radio in Charlotte this afternoon and discussed that Duke had a lot of good practice time the past few days. An area of focus was the "stagnant" offense we saw at ACCT. Collins mentioned Ryan Kelly's absence being a key to the stagnant offense we saw in ATL. Kelly's ability to stretch the defense and pull a Big out so that the court is more open for the Austin, Seth, and the Plumlees. Collins also mentioned that Kelly hasn't been cleared to play yet, but is progressing nicely. He wasn't sure about Ryan's status for Friday but is day-to-day and mentioned the foot is not experiencing any swelling, soreness or pain from the work he is doing now. I have a good feeling about this tourney... but then again, I'm prone to being overly optimistic :)



...."Collins also mentioned that Kelly hasn't been cleared to play yet, but is progressing nicely. He wasn't sure about Ryan's status for Friday but is day-to-day and mentioned the foot is not experiencing any swelling, soreness or pain from the work he is doing now."

Without getting hopes too high, and realizing this is not running and jumping on a basketball court, I like the sound of this. We really need Ryan back as soon as he's ready to go...

uh_no
03-14-2012, 09:40 PM
...."Collins also mentioned that Kelly hasn't been cleared to play yet, but is progressing nicely. He wasn't sure about Ryan's status for Friday but is day-to-day and mentioned the foot is not experiencing any swelling, soreness or pain from the work he is doing now."

Without getting hopes too high, and realizing this is not running and jumping on a basketball court, I like the sound of this. We really need Ryan back as soon as he's ready to go...

Much like kyrie, as soon as he is cleared to play, he'll play. There won't be a "cleared for practice but not for games"....he can either play or he can't play...and he's been around long enough that he doesn't need to reintegrate with the team....so i expect a very short turnaround from running and jumping to cleared for all activities...i would imagine the r+j would just to ensure there's no more pain/swelling.

I'm not a doctor, but I did stay in a holiday inn express sometime in the past decade.

stixof96
03-14-2012, 10:50 PM
If Andre Dawkins comes out and shoots the ball like he is capable of shooting the ball, Duke will be 40% tougher to beat. In my opinion, that is the silver bullet. Somebody needs to challenge that boy like he has never been challenged in his life. It's time for him to do what he came here to do.

COYS
03-15-2012, 10:02 AM
If Andre Dawkins comes out and shoots the ball like he is capable of shooting the ball, Duke will be 40% tougher to beat. In my opinion, that is the silver bullet. Somebody needs to challenge that boy like he has never been challenged in his life. It's time for him to do what he came here to do.

Let's not forget that he's done it before when the team needed it most. I seem to recall some big shots by Andre in Houston at some point in 2010.

rtnorthrup
03-15-2012, 10:10 AM
Right now, Andre needs to work much harder to get himself open. His shots during the ACC Tourney were forced and you could tell from his body language that he is frustrated right now. He is being forced further away from the three point line to get open looks.

jv001
03-15-2012, 02:21 PM
Right now, Andre needs to work much harder to get himself open. His shots during the ACC Tourney were forced and you could tell from his body language that he is frustrated right now. He is being forced further away from the three point line to get open looks.

I agree 100% in that Andre could work harder to get open. In some of the interviews recently, Austin mentioned that guys could move better to get open. He even went as far to say that some guys had been standing around. Looks like the coaches and players have noticed the standing around by Andre and other players. But I will say this as well, there has been too much dribbling around with no attempt to drive the ball. GoDuke!