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View Full Version : MBB: FSU 62, Duke 59 ACCT Post Game Thread



hurleyfor3
03-10-2012, 05:40 PM
We got beat. On to the NCAAs.

FerryFor50
03-10-2012, 05:42 PM
Not much to say after this one. It went about the way I thought it would. Physical, bruising game going down to the wire.

Offense looked bad again. Defense looked better. #2 seed not the worst thing to happen, but Duke needs to straighten out the offensive woes.

ChicagoCrazy84
03-10-2012, 05:42 PM
I am man enough to admit FSU is better than us this year (or at least we don't match up with them very well). They give us a lot of problems with their length and defense. Congrats to them. With that said, we missed Ryan Kelly today.

I am happy with their toughness in the last 10 minutes, they hustled and while didn't shoot it well, played a lot smarter.

Time to rest up, get healthy (Ryan!), and prep for the big dance.

muzikfrk75
03-10-2012, 05:43 PM
2 bad possessions at the end for Duke. Oh well, NCAAs it is.

sporthenry
03-10-2012, 05:43 PM
We got beat. On to the NCAAs.

Perhaps a wake up call of sorts although it seems like we've had 10 wake up calls and still keep doing the same thing. Have to wonder about Cook getting more PT to be honest. Luckily, assuming we get past our 15 seed, the 7/10 won't have much time to prepare for us b/c it appears it is pretty easy to game plan for Duke. Sag off on TT and sit on the perimeter b/c we don't look for our bigs. Let the bigs get in foul trouble and attack the offensive boards.

Greg_Newton
03-10-2012, 05:44 PM
Strangely, I'm not even that upset. Won't affect our seeding whatsoever, we don't have to play UNC (you know Henson would play if it were us), and UNC has to brawl with FSU again.

Good effort. Out-talented. Hope we get hot and make a run in the tourney.

FerryFor50
03-10-2012, 05:44 PM
I am man enough to admit FSU is better than us this year (or at least we don't match up with them very well). They give us a lot of problems with their length and defense. Congrats to them. With that said, we missed Ryan Kelly today.

I am happy with their toughness in the last 10 minutes, they hustled and while didn't shoot it well, played a lot smarter.

Time to rest up, get healthy (Ryan!), and prep for the big dance.

I disagree. FSU is not a better team, but they definitely match up with us well.

hurleyfor3
03-10-2012, 05:44 PM
Perhaps a wake up call of sorts although it seems like we've had 10 wake up calls and still keep doing the same thing.

When that happens, the people who need to wake up are us.

slower
03-10-2012, 05:46 PM
Not the end of the world. Better than another loss to the Holes, if you ask me. And they did finish with some nice intensity, regardless of those late-game brain farts. Let's hope the Holes and Noles beat the everloving crap out of each other.

tendev
03-10-2012, 05:46 PM
Well, we put ourselves in position to win and I was happy to see that given how things were going early in the 2nd half. We needed a bucket or two more at the end and just could not get one. I will be an FSU fan tomorrow.

sporthenry
03-10-2012, 05:46 PM
When that happens, the people who need to wake up are us.

I agree with Dickie V and presumably you that this isn't a true Duke team but I think we all see flashes of a good team but can't put it together. But I am waking up and getting to the S16 seems to be about as far as I can realistically look at this team and for a top10 team, that feels like a disappointment.

rthomas
03-10-2012, 05:47 PM
Florida State has a pretty good team. Good luck to them tomorrow!

tendev
03-10-2012, 05:47 PM
Not the end of the world. Better than another loss to the Holes, if you ask me. And they did finish with some nice intensity, regardless of those late-game brain farts. Let's hope the Holes and Noles beat the everloving crap out of each other.

Yes, but I was liking our chances without Henson.

mapei
03-10-2012, 05:47 PM
FSU made huge plays to seal the game. Credit to them for great defense all day and clutch O when they needed it.

mgtr
03-10-2012, 05:48 PM
I hope that we don't have to play in Atlanta again this year. We don't shoot very well there, it seems. Well, on to bigger and better things!

ChicagoCrazy84
03-10-2012, 05:48 PM
I for one will be watching tomorrow. I honestly don't care who wins, I won't necessarily be cheering for FSU but it will be an entertaining game.

Does anyone know if Andre scored today? He has been invisible the last 2 weeks.

CoachJ10
03-10-2012, 05:48 PM
This week...the team needs to focus on executing their offense with more discipline.

The bigs need to practice being available on the pick and rolls.
The bigs also need to practice on posting up closer to the hoop. Mason shouldn't be getting the ball 12-15 feet from the hoop.

The guards need to tighten up their handles. No weaksauce dribble. Seth, Quin and Tyler...play strong with the ball.
Austin needs to focus on taking the ball strong to the whole...but to keep his head up and look for dishing opportunities.

Andre...he just needs to find a hunger. A hunger to leave it all out on the court.

These are all things we have seen over the course of the season...time to focus on them for the Big Dance.

And Ryan...just hope he can contribute.

hurleyfor3
03-10-2012, 05:48 PM
I agree with Dickie V and presumably you

Yeah. We've done some great things this year, and I realize Ryan didn't play, but no one should be surprised if we have another 2008-like performance in the NCAAs. NO ONE.

This is Hamilton's big chance to win an ACC title. Go Noles.

SharkD
03-10-2012, 05:49 PM
Florida State has a pretty good team. Good luck to them tomorrow!

Let's hope the Noles beat the Holes.

loran16
03-10-2012, 05:50 PM
Let's point this out again: Ryan Kelly is huge for this team - not just for depth, but because the offense runs through him a lot of the time.....The team looked lost at times with Miles and Josh because TT would have the ball on the perimeter, Miles would set a screen and get the ball, and have no clue what to do with it. That's Ryan's job.

With Ryan, we win this game easily.

And yet without him, we lost by 3. That's amazing. We lose by only THREE.

Next Play guys, time for the real tournament.

devildeac
03-10-2012, 05:51 PM
f$u already has 7 PF on them for tomorrow's game for hand checking. Zeller starts the game shooting 1&1.:rolleyes:

jipops
03-10-2012, 05:52 PM
Strangely, I'm not even that upset. Won't affect our seeding whatsoever, we don't have to play UNC (you know Henson would play if it were us), and UNC has to brawl with FSU again.

Good effort. Out-talented. Hope we get hot and make a run in the tourney.

I agree. FSU will probably be a better test for the heels than us right now. I was not looking forward to play the heels again.

I was all ready to feel good about going into the ncaat before Kelly's injury. Now we're going in with no momentum and very bad offensive struggles - a total reverse of what we've this season. On the other hand we've faced two very good defensive opponents. I'm betting we'll be a popular pick to be upset early. It ofcourse depends on matchups but we seem prone to bad matchups right now.

ChicagoCrazy84
03-10-2012, 05:52 PM
This week...the team needs to focus on executing their offense with more discipline.

The bigs need to practice being available on the pick and rolls.
The bigs also need to practice on posting up closer to the hoop. Mason shouldn't be getting the ball 12-15 feet from the hoop.

The guards need to tighten up their handles. No weaksauce dribble. Seth, Quin and Tyler...play strong with the ball.
Austin needs to focus on taking the ball strong to the whole...but to keep his head up and look for dishing opportunities.

Andre...he just needs to find a hunger. A hunger to leave it all out on the court.

These are all things we have seen over the course of the season...time to focus on them for the Big Dance.

And Ryan...just hope he can contribute.



Agreed, Agreed, Agreeed, Agreed.

I'm not going to worry about Ryan, I think a lot of the reason were holding him out is pre-cautionary but yes, our guard play NEEDS to tighten up and be more aggressive. No more shooting 3's for Tyler Thornton, just step in take it in a few steps and be aggressive!

Fuqua's Finest
03-10-2012, 05:52 PM
I'll keep it simple,

This team is not very good right now. I'm not sure I can think of a recent Duke team that reminds me of this one, but we're really struggling on offense. We never pass the ball on the roll. Granted the Plumlee's fumble the ball at times, but we will not make it far in the tourney with Ty Thornton being an integral part of our offense. I could go on and ramble, but its obvious. If we're not hitting the 3 at a 40% clip, we have nothing offensively. I think what bothers me the most is we won't even try to feed it to the post. Miles had a little streak in the 2nd half, but nope, we will not keep feeding him.

I am hopeful that K will motivate these guys to play better coming up, but schematically, there's nothing much we can change after 33 games. I'm not even mad. I am more shocked at how we seem to be getting worse as the season continues. Anyone got any ideas how we can get better really fast, or is our ceiling simply the Sweet 16?

nobodybutDUKE
03-10-2012, 05:52 PM
The game of basketball, most of the time, requires the passing of the ball. We seem to have forgotten how.

hq2
03-10-2012, 05:52 PM
I disagree. FSU is not a better team, but they definitely match up with us well

Yup. Big guys in the middle, quick tweeners who can drive in the gap in the defense in the lane, quick
big guards to stop the 3. Snaer in particular found the gap in our D up around the free throw line.
Not a surprising outcome. Hope Carolina isn't cheering too hard; without, Henson, I don't see them
beating FSU either.

Bob Green
03-10-2012, 05:53 PM
It is hard for us to win when we only score 59 points. Credit FSU for playing tough defense, but our offense has been in a funk for a couple of weeks and we need to snap out of it before Friday.

brumby041
03-10-2012, 05:53 PM
This is Hamilton's big chance to win an ACC title. Go Noles.

Yep. He got us minus a big starter (Kelly), and he'll likely get the Heels without one as well (Henson).

Not that the COY would ever admit that...

slower
03-10-2012, 05:53 PM
Let's hope the Noles beat the Holes.

Tomorrow, we are ALL Noles! Despite Leonard Hamilton's glare-schtick wearing VERY thin, it's ABC time! Let FSU go full-punk tomorrow - just sorry Henson won't be there to get knocked around. Actually, I have no problem with Zeller and (mostly) Marshall, so I don't really care that much who wins. Certainly won't watch it, though.

gus
03-10-2012, 05:54 PM
The bigs need to practice being available on the pick and rolls.

That, and the failure to box out, where the two things frustrating me most. With how often they were double teaming the shooter, we should have had a ton of layups and 6 foot jumpshots. Then again, our guards were doubled teamed by taller defenders, so it's easier said than done.

Oh well. On to the tournament, as everyone's saying. Hopefully Kelly's back by the second round (or earlier).

CLW
03-10-2012, 05:54 PM
Too many mistakes (many unforced) and poor execution (on both ends of the court) + FSU making big plays in the end were the difference.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see us slide down to a 3 seed. In the end we rely too heavily on "the lottery" as we have zero post offense and only one guy who can create his own shot off the dribble.

I hope we win the Powerball but I'm not holding my breath. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team in New Orleans and I wouldn't be surprised if this team fell in the 1st round (or whatever its called now).

hurleyfor3
03-10-2012, 05:56 PM
You know, a non-North Carolina school wins it once a decade or so. It's about time.

tendev
03-10-2012, 05:56 PM
I'll keep it simple,

This team is not very good right now. I'm not sure I can think of a recent Duke team that reminds me of this one, but we're really struggling on offense. We never pass the ball on the roll. Granted the Plumlee's fumble the ball at times, but we will not make it far in the tourney with Ty Thornton being an integral part of our offense. I could go on and ramble, but its obvious. If we're not hitting the 3 at a 40% clip, we have nothing offensively. I think what bothers me the most is we won't even try to feed it to the post. Miles had a little streak in the 2nd half, but nope, we will not keep feeding him.

I am hopeful that K will motivate these guys to play better coming up, but schematically, there's nothing much we can change after 33 games. I'm not even mad. I am more shocked at how we seem to be getting worse as the season continues. Anyone got any ideas how we can get better really fast, or is our ceiling simply the Sweet 16?

I could not agree more about feeding the post. I scream it every offensive possession.

turnandburn55
03-10-2012, 05:56 PM
Perhaps a wake up call of sorts although it seems like we've had 10 wake up calls and still keep doing the same thing. Have to wonder about Cook getting more PT to be honest. Luckily, assuming we get past our 15 seed, the 7/10 won't have much time to prepare for us b/c it appears it is pretty easy to game plan for Duke. Sag off on TT and sit on the perimeter b/c we don't look for our bigs. Let the bigs get in foul trouble and attack the offensive boards.

Got to agree. We don't present a whole lot of matchup problems to anyone-- you know that when you're getting jumpshots blocked at the end of the first half. The only dude who does is Austin Rivers, and he makes just enough freshman mental errors to stop him from being a the total game-changer some of Duke's guards of old were. This is just a very different Duke team-- I love it just the same, but it feels like the parts don't quite fit together smoothly.

hldurham
03-10-2012, 05:57 PM
No way now

Kfanarmy
03-10-2012, 05:57 PM
This week...the team needs to focus on executing their offense with more discipline.

The bigs need to practice being available on the pick and rolls.
The bigs also need to practice on posting up closer to the hoop. Mason shouldn't be getting the ball 12-15 feet from the hoop.


all year I've thought this, but wow how many times did they let the ball go through their hands today...and they could have had a half dozen more rebounds but just don't seem at times to be able to hold on to the ball....even with Ryan out, this game was easily winnable without all the unforced turnovers...I give FSU all the credit for the ones they forced, but I'll bet at least 8 turnovers were simply bad hands and lack of attention to detail....

freshmanjs
03-10-2012, 05:57 PM
I'll keep it simple,

This team is not very good right now. I'm not sure I can think of a recent Duke team that reminds me of this one, but we're really struggling on offense. We never pass the ball on the roll. Granted the Plumlee's fumble the ball at times, but we will not make it far in the tourney with Ty Thornton being an integral part of our offense. I could go on and ramble, but its obvious. If we're not hitting the 3 at a 40% clip, we have nothing offensively. I think what bothers me the most is we won't even try to feed it to the post. Miles had a little streak in the 2nd half, but nope, we will not keep feeding him.

I am hopeful that K will motivate these guys to play better coming up, but schematically, there's nothing much we can change after 33 games. I'm not even mad. I am more shocked at how we seem to be getting worse as the season continues. Anyone got any ideas how we can get better really fast, or is our ceiling simply the Sweet 16?

What was VCU's "ceiling" last year? The whole notion is ridiculous. I would completely disagree with the idea that Duke would have zero chance to win a sweet 16 game if they get that far.

CoachJ10
03-10-2012, 05:59 PM
That, and the failure to box out, where the two things frustrating me most. With how often they were double teaming the shooter, we should have had a ton of layups and 6 foot jumpshots. Then again, our guards were doubled teamed by taller defenders, so it's easier said than done.

Oh well. On to the tournament, as everyone's saying. Hopefully Kelly's back by the second round (or earlier).

I am 100% with you on this...been a big frustration of mine all season long. And its not just the guards, Miles and Mason are guilty of it as well.

sporthenry
03-10-2012, 05:59 PM
It ofcourse depends on matchups but we seem prone to bad matchups right now.

With Duke the past 3-4 years, it seems to always be about matchups b/c we aren't a complete team. I still think we lose to Kentucky in 2010 but they lost to WVU so that was that. Having Cuse as the #1 isn't terrible (and getting to the E8 will be tough in itself). The 7/10 will be a lot about who we get. Do we get a hot BCS team, an underachieving one, or a well-executing mid major. Normally we dominate mid majors but this team is different. I still would prefer a mid-major though b/c they usually lack the PG who can penetrate and instead rely on a structured offense. I will admit to not having watched too many mid-majors but I think I'd prefer a St. Louis, New Mexico over a Memphis or Uconn. And it will only help that they will have 2 days to prepare as opposed to a week which is what the S16 would bring.

MCFinARL
03-10-2012, 05:59 PM
I agree with Dickie V and presumably you that this isn't a true Duke team but I think we all see flashes of a good team but can't put it together. But I am waking up and getting to the S16 seems to be about as far as I can realistically look at this team and for a top10 team, that feels like a disappointment.

Okay, but how are they not a "true" Duke team? They are all wearing Duke uniforms, they are all playing for Duke, they are all coached by the Duke coaches, they were all (except for Todd Z.) recruited by the Duke coaches. I have to think that, individually and as a group, they want to play well and want to win, even if they don't always do so.

Granted they are probably not a "typical" Duke team. And your characterization of them --"flashes of a good team but can't put it together"--seems plausible. But I think saying they are not a true Duke team suggests, somehow, that they aren't worthy of us. I don't think it is fair for us, as fans, to feel that entitled.

[I realize I am interpreting your post rather than responding to your direct words, and if I am reading way too much into it, my apologies in advance.]

ChicagoCrazy84
03-10-2012, 06:01 PM
No way now


I really wasn't even worried about the #1 seed. You have to earn a #1 seed and the teams we've had the last few years have done that, this team has not IMO.

I'm mainly worried about getting better and getting more confident. The last few games we've been atrocious offensively and no matter if we're a 1,2,or 3 seed if you go in with our recent performances you will be going home sooner than you think.

RoyalBlue08
03-10-2012, 06:02 PM
Team played with a lot a heart, but not a ton of offensive execution. Seems like we scored all our points on good individual plays or extremely tough shots. Credit to FSU. They have a very experience, very tough team and I think they are going to scare the crap out of a higher seed before March is over. We need to work on our ball movement, especially out of the trapped pick and roll. But I am looking forward to watching this team in the tournament. They seem to have really come together and are playing with a great will to win. That is something I can get behind. Go Duke!

mgtr
03-10-2012, 06:03 PM
The game of basketball, most of the time, requires the passing of the ball. We seem to have forgotten how.

I agree with this. Seth, in particular, needs to pass instead of pounding the ball into the court. And, at times, Austin is a black hole -- when he gets the ball, nobody gets it back. Then again, maybe nobody else will do anything useful if he passes it to them. Thornton is a solid ball handler, but the defense can kind of relax when he has the ball. He is not going to take 18 threes (again), and he doesn't make a clever (ie, inside) pass. Now, when the threes are dropping, none of this matters. When they aren't, we need to either penetrate or pass the balll inside.

johnpope
03-10-2012, 06:04 PM
Too many mistakes (many unforced) and poor execution (on both ends of the court) + FSU making big plays in the end were the difference.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see us slide down to a 3 seed. In the end we rely too heavily on "the lottery" as we have zero post offense and only one guy who can create his own shot off the dribble.

I hope we win the Powerball but I'm not holding my breath. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team in New Orleans and I wouldn't be surprised if this team fell in the 1st round (or whatever its called now).

Maybe naysayers were right afterall to say we're not as good as our ranking suggests... We're probably a top10-ish team, but not more than that. And while anything can happen in the tournament if we get hot from three point range, it's unlikely that will take us to a Final Four/Championship. Hopefully Austin and Mason will return, and we get Bazz, then we might have a more legitimate Final Four team next year. This group is just not there talent-wise, effort-wise, and chemistry-wise...

Greg_Newton
03-10-2012, 06:06 PM
Only problem I had with today was the complete absence of our most athletic, physical player, especially when we were playing scared and without fight early. Don't think it's done yet, but I'd be surprised to see him back next year.

Nice to see Cook and Hairston contribute positively, though. I'm sure it means a lot for them.

RockyMtDevil
03-10-2012, 06:06 PM
I'll keep it simple,

This team is not very good right now. I'm not sure I can think of a recent Duke team that reminds me of this one, but we're really struggling on offense. We never pass the ball on the roll. Granted the Plumlee's fumble the ball at times, but we will not make it far in the tourney with Ty Thornton being an integral part of our offense. I could go on and ramble, but its obvious. If we're not hitting the 3 at a 40% clip, we have nothing offensively. I think what bothers me the most is we won't even try to feed it to the post. Miles had a little streak in the 2nd half, but nope, we will not keep feeding him.

I am hopeful that K will motivate these guys to play better coming up, but schematically, there's nothing much we can change after 33 games. I'm not even mad. I am more shocked at how we seem to be getting worse as the season continues. Anyone got any ideas how we can get better really fast, or is our ceiling simply the Sweet 16?

Agree, I don't know if there is anything we can do schematically, sans getting Kelly back in the lineup. I would be more than pleased if we reached the Sweet 16, how can anyone who has watched this team in the last 3 games say we are a lock to even sniff the second weekend. We will play a 6-7 seed in the second round, probably a Uconn/Cinci type team who can come out and guard. Scoring 60 points won't beat anybody, period.

MCFinARL
03-10-2012, 06:07 PM
With Duke the past 3-4 years, it seems to always be about matchups b/c we aren't a complete team. I still think we lose to Kentucky in 2010 but they lost to WVU so that was that. Having Cuse as the #1 isn't terrible (and getting to the E8 will be tough in itself). The 7/10 will be a lot about who we get. Do we get a hot BCS team, an underachieving one, or a well-executing mid major. Normally we dominate mid majors but this team is different. I still would prefer a mid-major though b/c they usually lack the PG who can penetrate and instead rely on a structured offense. I will admit to not having watched too many mid-majors but I think I'd prefer a St. Louis, New Mexico over a Memphis or Uconn. And it will only help that they will have 2 days to prepare as opposed to a week which is what the S16 would bring.

If this team can get to the Elite 8, I will be ecstatic--and very proud of them. They are who they are.
As for mid-majors, yes, normally Duke does beat them in the tournament, but need I mention VCU in 2007? Or the 1-point win over Belmont the next year? This squad wouldn't be the first to struggle with a mid-major in an early round.

superdave
03-10-2012, 06:08 PM
Hats off to FSU for taking away our drives. They killed the pick and roll, jumping out the right way and stepping up to fill driving lanes. Great D. Great footwork and timing.

But that's no excuse for sloppiness and not looking to pass the ball. Too much dribbling, too many one on one plays. We had 4 assists and 14 TOs in the first half. That's AAU ball right there. Blah,

Lord Ash
03-10-2012, 06:09 PM
This team has struggled more than any I can remember with many of those things we consider fundamental to Duke style basketball.

That has left me incredibly frustrated. It isn't about the wins and losses... it is about watching a team which, in some ways, seems to have so much potential but then seeing it struggle so mightily with consistency and strength and defense and focus and heart.

I cannot help but picture a first weekend knockout, as we are certainly not playing very good basketball, relatively, to close the year. It is amazing that we looked so much better at the very start of this season, and outside of Austin and Miles (and Josh, to be fair) our players have apparently regressed here at the end of the year or not played at all.

Very frustrating.

freshmanjs
03-10-2012, 06:09 PM
The negativity is out of hand. This Duke team is very good. Not one of the handful of very top teams this year, but that is far from "awful" and we hardly "suck."

What is the worst season other top programs have had in the last 5 years?

Indiana
UCLA
UCONN
UNC
Michigan State

Doesn't ours stack up pretty well?

Would you trade this "awful" season for their worst in the last 5 years?

Let's get real, Duke is not going to be a #1 seed every single year. Let's have fun with the team we have.

MartyClark
03-10-2012, 06:10 PM
I wasn't surprised that we lost but, still, it was a discouraging loss. Our offense is really exposed against an athletic team like FSU. I'm particularly discouraged by Andre's invisible man act.

I'd like to see the Noles crush the Heels tomorrow. Go Noles.

mike88
03-10-2012, 06:11 PM
I wouldn't make so much of our offensive struggles - we are not the same team without Ryan and we just played one of the best (if not the best) defensive team we will see this year. As long as Ryan comes back near full-strength, I think we will be fine offensively (although I hope Andre finds his mojo!)

I am more interested in whether we can keep up our defensive intensity. If we play at our best defensively, the S16 or E8 become realistic - whether we are a 2 or 3 seed. On to Greensboro!

Fuqua's Finest
03-10-2012, 06:12 PM
We are 27-6. I think we are a team that simply has no confidence. When you have no confidence, it shows in all aspects. Also lacking a true PG is a big issue. Guards that penetrate help the bigs out big time. I can't remember the last time this season a PG penetrated and made a nice pass to the bigs in the lane. I think the effort is there, but the basketball smarts seem to be lacking (I.E. Boxing out). I really wish we would've developed our true wings (Gbinije and Murphy) this season, but Coach K knows more than I do.

We're just a 3 point shooting team at this point. The bigs get frustrated from not getting post feeds and I believe this leads them to forcing bad shots when they get opportunities. Overall, we're just not playing well at all right now and we have no versatility whatsoever.

ncexnyc
03-10-2012, 06:13 PM
A tough loss against a very good defensive team. The defense looked solid in the second half and the heart and desire were still there right down to the very end.

One too many boneheaded plays and whiffs cost us a chance at the rubber match I really wanted to see. Go FSU!

I'm not sure why so many people are down on this team. This has been the M.O. for most of the season. We'll be fine this coming weekend, if Kelly comes back then that's good and if not Josh with get more reps. Have some faith people.;)

dcdrumsinc
03-10-2012, 06:16 PM
Little to no inside post play
Streaky outside shooting
Undersized guards (6'1'' or 6'3'') always going up against bigger stronger guards
Overplaying man to man defense only to get burned off the dribble by quicker guards
Poor rebounding
Only one recruit signed for next season, who happens to be ANOTHER 6'3'' undersized guard

Things aren't looking as bright right now

weezie
03-10-2012, 06:22 PM
Okay, but how are they not a "true" Duke team? They are all wearing Duke uniforms, they are all playing for Duke, they are all coached by the Duke coaches, they were all (except for Todd Z.) recruited by the Duke coaches. I have to think that, individually and as a group, they want to play well and want to win, even if they don't always do so.


Vitale: I'd love to upend a milk pail onto his head and bang on it with a wrench.

NYC Duke Fan
03-10-2012, 06:24 PM
I agree with Dickie V and presumably you that this isn't a true Duke team but I think we all see flashes of a good team but can't put it together. But I am waking up and getting to the S16 seems to be about as far as I can realistically look at this team and for a top10 team, that feels like a disappointment.

Finally a man of reason and realism. I agree with you that getting to the Sweet 16 would probably be all we can hope for.I just hope that we get by the first weekend..I have some doubts about that. Our ranking in my opinion does not reflect how we realistically are..In my opinion we are not a top 10 team . The only decent teams that we have beaten since Jan are UNC and FSU. You could add UVA if you want.

#1Duke
03-10-2012, 06:24 PM
Vitale: I'd love to upend a milk pail onto his head and bang on it with a wrench.

No way, he's our biggest fan!! Constantly talking us up no matter what game he's calling. I think he was implying that a typical Duke team would have won today and looked better. I don't think he meant it in the manner that's it's being taken.

Fuqua's Finest
03-10-2012, 06:24 PM
Little to no inside post play
Streaky outside shooting
Undersized guards (6'1'' or 6'3'') always going up against bigger stronger guards
Overplaying man to man defense only to get burned off the dribble by quicker guards
Poor rebounding
Only one recruit signed for next season, who happens to be ANOTHER 6'3'' undersized guard

Things aren't looking as bright right now

On the bright side, we have three top 50 players from our bench this season(Murphy, Plum 3, and Gbinije) that will be in the regular rotation next season. They all have height (6'6 & up) which will help our team immensely in the rebounding department. Suliamon adds another element to this team that we lack (outside of Austin) so much... the ability to penetrate and dish/and or score. I honestly think next years team will be much better, but we will definitely have some hurt feelings. There is a lot of guard depth on this team (this year and next) that in my opinion isn't starting quality. Some people will definitely have to suck their pride up or bust their butts in the offseason to improve.

Also, I see no way that Mason Plumlee will leave after this season. Unless he needs the money (which I doubt), I see no way he plays any minutes in the NBA. He's got so much potential but he needs to put it together. I certainly hope he improves the most over the offseason.

MCFinARL
03-10-2012, 06:25 PM
It is amazing that we looked so much better at the very start of this season, and outside of Austin and Miles (and Josh, to be fair) our players have apparently regressed here at the end of the year or not played at all.

Very frustrating.

Well, one reason Duke looked so much better at the start of the season is that they had the benefit of the China trip and were playing against teams without that extra early preparation. And even in years without a summer trip, it's not unusual to see Duke look better prepared than opponents at the beginning of the season. Duke's philosophy seems to be to work hard from the very beginning and to take every game seriously from the beginning. Sometimes the result of that is that, by comparison, Duke seems less good at the end of the year when playing against teams that peak later. In the case of this particular team, the situation may be exacerbated a bit by the fact that they have struggled to really jell as an effective unit, for whatever reasons.


I wasn't surprised that we lost but, still, it was a discouraging loss. Our offense is really exposed against an athletic team like FSU. I'm particularly discouraged by Andre's invisible man act.

I'd like to see the Noles crush the Heels tomorrow. Go Noles.

To be fair to Andre here, he was well covered almost all of the time he was on the floor today. One of the problems with Ryan Kelly being out is that it makes it easier for defenses to cover the other shooters, and we had to play good defensive teams yesterday and today. (Today, in fact, I think it would be fair to say we played an excellent defensive team.)

slower
03-10-2012, 06:30 PM
Also lacking a true PG is a big issue.

Okay, this is a pet peeve of mine. Why do people NOT consider Quinn to be a "true PG"? Please explain.

SCMatt33
03-10-2012, 06:31 PM
At this point, there's not much to say about this game specifically. At this point, it's all about the big picture. In two games here, Duke chose to go defense over offense without Kelly. In some ways that really seemed to help the defense, but it's hard to tell for sure given that FSU and Va Tech aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. Duke held their own on the glass for both games, and didn't allow great shooting nights from either one, but they only marginally increased their turnover output from what they had been forcing for most of the year. The other thing is that both games were low possession games so the efficiency increase isn't as great as it might seem (In the FSU game, they still gave up about a point per possession). Against a quality offensive team, I'm not sure that this defensive strategy works as well.

The offense was a complete mess in both games. Without Kelly, Duke can't use its spacing to stretch the D. The Plumlees will come out and set screens, but end up with the ball in their hands more than 15 ft from the basket way too much. There is very little that either one will give you from that range, either dribbling, or shooting. Without the spacing, you have to rely on screens and dribbling to get open, but the book is out on Duke's two favorite plays for that, a down screen on the wing, and a hand off up high. Those two plays were shut down completely. Even on simple passes around the perimeter, only Thornton would end up open, which is exactly the way other teams wanted it. Out of 17 3's in two games, about 14 or 15 were wide open (the others were end of shot clock scenarios), but he shot under 25% overall. There's no incentive for the other team to stay honest with those numbers on wide open shots. When you're covered that tightly, you think of two ways to beat it, passing and dribbling, but Duke isn't great at either of those. Duke is 287th in the country at A/FGM, and that rate has actually been worse than average recently. Without the spacing or shooting threats, teams can pack it in, which takes away cutting to the hoop and finesse driving. Whether it's at this level or the next level, the biggest thing Rivers needs to do is add muscle to drive with power. When he get near the rim, his drives usually end with a reverse layup, an underhanded shot, or a floater. His floater isn't at the level of a guy like Nolan Smith, so defenses let him have it. On the other shots, he has a very low release point, which makes it easy to block, or at least alter without fouling, and turns it into a lower percentage shot. Duke gets plently of shots from 8 feet and in, but they are always the lowest percentage shots possible. Even after all of that, everything is still one-on-one for this team against their opponents offense. I still find it baffling that for a team who only has one guy who's great at getting his own shot that they have such a low assist rate. This team has saved themselves all year with spacing, but with Thornton in the game and no Kelly, there are only going to be two three point threats that other teams are afraid of, and Duke's offense will stuggle big time in that scenario.

What I think Duke needs to do to help alleviate this is push the pace. If they're half court offense is struggling as much as it is, the best way to curtail that is to not let the defense get set. That's a lot easier said than done, especially with the sloppy play we've seen, but I think it's the best shot they have against a big team to score points. Against a small team, many of these problems go away, because the Plumlees have proven themselves to be able to dominate small teams, but Duke will struggle with big teams. The good news as long as Duke's one seed is not a big ten team (there aren't even any currently projected big ten one seeds), they have a 50/50 shot of drawing Michigan as their 3 seed, since the first three teams from a conference have to be in separate regions. Out of the projected three seeds, the only team that is really a bad matchup for Duke is Baylor. Michigan and Marqutte are small and both would be great matchups, and Georgetown has less size than Georgetown normally has. The seven through ten seeds are much more fluid, and there are definitely some bad matchups in the group. With or without Kelly, I think that matchups will play a bigger part in Duke's fate than it has in the past. That doesn't mean they can't beat a bad matchup or lose to a good one, but I'd say that it is less likely than in other years.

mgtr
03-10-2012, 06:33 PM
On the bright side, we have three top 50 players from our bench this season(Murphy, Plum 3, and Gbinije) that will be in the regular rotation next season. They all have height (6'6 & up) which will help our team immensely in the rebounding department. Suliamon adds another element to this team that we lack (outside of Austin) so much... the ability to penetrate and dish/and or score. I honestly think next years team will be much better, but we will definitely have some hurt feelings. There is a lot of guard depth on this team (this year and next) that in my opinion isn't starting quality. Some people will definitely have to suck their pride up or bust their butts in the offseason to improve.

Also, I see no way that Mason Plumlee will leave after this season. Unless he needs the money (which I doubt), I see no way he plays any minutes in the NBA. He's got so much potential but he needs to put it together. I certainly hope he improves the most over the offseason.


This is on the money. With our redshirts, plus one or possibly more recruits, we will be fine. Very unlikely that Mason will leave, uncertain about Austin. So, we lose Miles, maybe Austin, but we gain a lot. Better next year. I know that Duke is for superstars (well, some fans think so), but we have had a pretty successful year so far (by any but Duke standards). We will not be playing in the NIT, and will have a very good seed in the big tournament. Whats to hate?

arnie
03-10-2012, 06:34 PM
Okay, this is a pet peeve of mine. Why do people NOT consider Quinn to be a "true PG"? Please explain.

I totally agree with you re: Quinn and think he will emerge next year. Thornton's a great role player, but no team can afford to play a point guard that gets "0" assists and has limited shooting ability. Quinn showed flashes today and should really improve next year.

sporthenry
03-10-2012, 06:35 PM
Okay, but how are they not a "true" Duke team? They are all wearing Duke uniforms, they are all playing for Duke, they are all coached by the Duke coaches, they were all (except for Todd Z.) recruited by the Duke coaches. I have to think that, individually and as a group, they want to play well and want to win, even if they don't always do so.

Granted they are probably not a "typical" Duke team. And your characterization of them --"flashes of a good team but can't put it together"--seems plausible. But I think saying they are not a true Duke team suggests, somehow, that they aren't worthy of us. I don't think it is fair for us, as fans, to feel that entitled.

[I realize I am interpreting your post rather than responding to your direct words, and if I am reading way too much into it, my apologies in advance.]


This team has struggled more than any I can remember with many of those things we consider fundamental to Duke style basketball.

That has left me incredibly frustrated. It isn't about the wins and losses... it is about watching a team which, in some ways, seems to have so much potential but then seeing it struggle so mightily with consistency and strength and defense and focus and heart.

I cannot help but picture a first weekend knockout, as we are certainly not playing very good basketball, relatively, to close the year. It is amazing that we looked so much better at the very start of this season, and outside of Austin and Miles (and Josh, to be fair) our players have apparently regressed here at the end of the year or not played at all.

Very frustrating.
I think that sums up what many of us are feeling. It is a frustrating team b/c of the potential. And yes, we are spoiled fans to some degree to have that typical Duke standard to live up to. And perhaps we take that for granted a lot but I think thats also one of the reasons we love Duke. This team does have heart at least towards the end of games but I think many of us loved that we played smart and efficient and played tough on D which you can't always say here. I think K has had similar feelings as he almost seemed resigned with some of his comments about this team and is simplifying things on both sides of the ball. Heck, our execution out of timeouts seems to be at an all time low.

Fuqua's Finest
03-10-2012, 06:37 PM
Okay, this is a pet peeve of mine. Why do people NOT consider Quinn to be a "true PG"? Please explain.

Fair enough question. Quinn is a freshman so I give him a pass. But from watching him play in his up and down minutes, name one thing Quinn does really well? This is not to bash the kid because I said the same about a freshman Nolan Smith. We all know how that story ended. But when Quinn is running the show, he rarely penetrates (which may be by design), he shot is very inconsistent, and he's not very strong right now with his passes. He has shown flashes of it, but he's young. He's a freshman so he'll improve (I hope!) considerably over the next 2 seasons.

So to answer your question directly....Is he a true PG in my eyes right now? No. Can he become one? I don't know.

sporthenry
03-10-2012, 06:41 PM
Fair enough question. Quinn is a freshman so I give him a pass. But from watching him play in his up and down minutes, name one thing Quinn does really well? This is not to bash the kid because I said the same about a freshman Nolan Smith. We all know how that story ended. But when Quinn is running the show, he rarely penetrates (which may be by design), he shot is very inconsistent, and he's not very strong right now with his passes. He has shown flashes of it, but he's young. He's a freshman so he'll improve (I hope!) considerably over the next 2 seasons.

So to answer your question directly....Is he a true PG in my eyes right now? No. Can he become one? I don't know.

He may not be a true PG but he is the closest thing. His rare penetration still would have been better than the complete lack of penetration today and I seem to feel we have another PG with a very inconsistent shot. Yes, TT brings defense but offensively, its hard to argue that things didn't open up with Cook in the game.

slower
03-10-2012, 06:42 PM
I totally agree with you re: Quinn and think he will emerge next year. Thornton's a great role player, but no team can afford to play a point guard that gets "0" assists and has limited shooting ability. Quinn showed flashes today and should really improve next year.

Agree that Quinn IS a true PG, but I think Tyler does have a legit claim to PT. He's a gamer, man, no matter what his limitations are. You can NEVER criticize his effort. I think he's the logical choice to be a captain next year. If Austin comes back, I'd make him a captain as well. Quinn also has the stuff to be a captain.

But, yeah, it's gonna be a total logjam at guard next year. Obviously, Austin is a lock for starter minutes if he returns. Beyond that, I don't know. It has been glaringly obvious the past few years that what we need are ATHLETES to get past the teams that seem to plague us every year (FSU, LSU, Villanova, etc.). I hope Rasheed is the real deal. Honestly, I don't see Silent G as the answer at SF - but I hope to be proved wrong!

wsb3
03-10-2012, 06:43 PM
Okay, this is a pet peeve of mine. Why do people NOT consider Quinn to be a "true PG"? Please explain.

I was wondering this also. I love Tyler but I have never seen him as someone to take us deep into the tourney. Doesn't the ball just seem to move better when Quin is at the point?

K obviously knows more than I do.:rolleyes: I guess it is all about defense.

Delaware
03-10-2012, 06:43 PM
I'll keep it simple,

This team is not very good right now. I'm not sure I can think of a recent Duke team that reminds me of this one, but we're really struggling on offense. We never pass the ball on the roll. Granted the Plumlee's fumble the ball at times, but we will not make it far in the tourney with Ty Thornton being an integral part of our offense. I could go on and ramble, but its obvious. If we're not hitting the 3 at a 40% clip, we have nothing offensively. I think what bothers me the most is we won't even try to feed it to the post. Miles had a little streak in the 2nd half, but nope, we will not keep feeding him.

I am hopeful that K will motivate these guys to play better coming up, but schematically, there's nothing much we can change after 33 games. I'm not even mad. I am more shocked at how we seem to be getting worse as the season continues. Anyone got any ideas how we can get better really fast, or is our ceiling simply the Sweet 16?

Schematically... yes, we need a change. But can it be done in less than a week?

It seems teams have figured out quite well our double high post at the elbow bigs handing off to Seth or Austin and our inability to then roll off of that for opportunities for our bigs. Our guards don't pass it well enough after the screens/handoffs. FSU played it perfectly today. This offsensive set basically takes our bigs away from the basket and are thus not offensive rebounding threats either. Can we either run and gun with Quinn or go with a double low post cross screening offense to get more touches inside?

Our defensive is getting a bit better, but I think it might be a mirage as at tourney time everyone slows down and tightens up their offense. I hope I'm wrong on that point. With our undersized guards, we might be better served to full court or half court trap/press and try to turn teams over and not have to always play half court defense. We have enough guards to play that style, but again is that to radical a change?

Right now the team is in a funk. And it may be too late to change the identity of either our offense or defense.

We do have some nice pieces, but have a very small margin for error.

I still am hopful for an elite 8 run.

slower
03-10-2012, 06:45 PM
Fair enough question. Quinn is a freshman so I give him a pass. But from watching him play in his up and down minutes, name one thing Quinn does really well? This is not to bash the kid because I said the same about a freshman Nolan Smith. We all know how that story ended. But when Quinn is running the show, he rarely penetrates (which may be by design), he shot is very inconsistent, and he's not very strong right now with his passes. He has shown flashes of it, but he's young. He's a freshman so he'll improve (I hope!) considerably over the next 2 seasons.

So to answer your question directly....Is he a true PG in my eyes right now? No. Can he become one? I don't know.

Really? I have NEVER seen Quinn described as anything BUT a PG. Not a combo guard. Not a 2 guard. I just don't see where people get the idea that he's NOT a true PG. Perhaps it's a matter of execution, but I don't think there's any question that he is, stylistically, a true PG.

Fuqua's Finest
03-10-2012, 06:46 PM
He may not be a true PG but he is the closest thing. His rare penetration still would have been better than the complete lack of penetration today and I seem to feel we have another PG with a very inconsistent shot. Yes, TT brings defense but offensively, its hard to argue that things didn't open up with Cook in the game.

I agree 1000%. The threat of having two penetrating guards in at one time opens up the offense so much more. Right now, the recipe for beating Duke is: bottle up Austin, guard the 3 point shot, and crash the boards. Guess what you'll have? A struggling Duke team.

sporthenry
03-10-2012, 06:46 PM
I was wondering this also. I love Tyler but I have never seen him as someone to take us deep into the tourney. Doesn't the ball just seem to move better when Quin is at the point?

K obviously knows more than I do.:rolleyes: I guess it is all about defense.

Yeah, but I just don't understand why its one or the other with 40 minutes up for grabs. Yes, Curry might get some PT at the 1 but I see no reason why they can't go offense for defense as TT ended up taking arguably the biggest shot of the game for Duke and Dickie V even said he was the 5th option. Well if he is on the bench, we have hopefully a better 5th option out there. Cook pretty much jump started the run to put us back in it and I don't think played again.

Fuqua's Finest
03-10-2012, 06:53 PM
Really? I have NEVER seen Quinn described as anything BUT a PG. Not a combo guard. Not a 2 guard. I just don't see where people get the idea that he's NOT a true PG. Perhaps it's a matter of execution, but I don't think there's any question that he is, stylistically, a true PG.

Let me rephrase this. Quinn can only be a "true PG" due to his God given size. So my apologies for the "true PG" confusion. I guess the point I'm trying to make is at this point I cannot see Quinn as a game-changer for Duke at the PG spot. That could change with time as he gets stronger and more mature as a player. He's a freshman and Kyrie's aren't bred everyday. I'm sure its just me being a spoiled Duke fan or even having a Kyrie-hangover. But when I see Quinn play (in limited minutes of course), I don't see game-changer at the PG spot. He seems to fit the Sean Dock, Ty Thornton mold to me. Feedback?

slower
03-10-2012, 06:55 PM
Let me rephrase this. Quinn can only be a "true PG" due to his God given size. So my apologies for the "true PG" confusion. I guess the point I'm trying to make is at this point I cannot see Quinn as a game-changer for Duke at the PG spot. That could change with time as he gets stronger and more mature as a player. He's a freshman and Kyrie's aren't bred everyday. I'm sure its just me being a spoiled Duke fan or even having a Kyrie-hangover. But when I see Quinn play (in limited minutes of course), I don't see game-changer at the PG spot. He seems to fit the Sean Dock, Ty Thornton mold to me. Feedback?

Okay, so he's not yet a game-changer. That doesn't exclude him from being a true PG, does it? I feel that Quinn performs the duties of a "true" PG much better than Tyler, Seth or Austin. The ball seems to move better when he's in there.

Fuqua's Finest
03-10-2012, 06:57 PM
Okay, so he's not yet a game-changer. That doesn't exclude him from being a true PG, does it? I feel that Quinn performs the duties of a "true" PG much better than Tyler, Seth or Austin. The ball seems to move better when he's in there.

No sir it does not. You are correct. :)

sporthenry
03-10-2012, 07:02 PM
Let me rephrase this. Quinn can only be a "true PG" due to his God given size. So my apologies for the "true PG" confusion. I guess the point I'm trying to make is at this point I cannot see Quinn as a game-changer for Duke at the PG spot. That could change with time as he gets stronger and more mature as a player. He's a freshman and Kyrie's aren't bred everyday. I'm sure its just me being a spoiled Duke fan or even having a Kyrie-hangover. But when I see Quinn play (in limited minutes of course), I don't see game-changer at the PG spot. He seems to fit the Sean Dock, Ty Thornton mold to me. Feedback?

I think Cook shows flashes of his ability. I think he finished 2nd in the McD AA 3 point contest (which isn't the best indication) but I think his shot will get better and he also led team USA with 7.4 APG and scored a serviceable 7.5 ppg playing with the top players in the country. I see Cook more as a Duhon who will be able to score and actually sets up the offense although even Duhon's defense was great. But Cooks A/TO ration is staggeringly high for a freshman and just makes you wonder what he could do. Personally, I don't see anything wrong with his passes and he is good at penetration from what I see just gets a bit out of control and his defense obviously isn't up to TT. But I think Cook will be a true PG in the sense that he will look to make things happen for other people, get some steals and easy baskets, but can find his own shot when he needs to.

MartyClark
03-10-2012, 07:06 PM
To be fair to Andre here, he was well covered almost all of the time he was on the floor today. One of the problems with Ryan Kelly being out is that it makes it easier for defenses to cover the other shooters, and we had to play good defensive teams yesterday and today. (Today, in fact, I think it would be fair to say we played an excellent defensive team.)[/QUOTE]

Your're right, Andre was well covered. I expect more out of him though. Remember how well covered J.J. was most games? Remember how hard he ran and fought to get open? I don't see any of that from Andre. There are lots of guys, playing for lesser programs, who can hit an open three. Getting open when you are well guarded by a good opponent is a different deal. Andre lately has seemed unwilling or unable to accomplish this.

sporthenry
03-10-2012, 07:10 PM
Your're right, Andre was well covered. I expect more out of him though. Remember how well covered J.J. was most games? Remember how hard he ran and fought to get open? I don't see any of that from Andre. There are lots of guys, playing for lesser programs, who can hit an open three. Getting open when you are well guarded by a good opponent is a different deal. Andre lately has seemed unwilling or unable to accomplish this.

JJ also had the offensive sets run through him whereas I don't see Dre getting down screened from both sides with options to go out to either as JJ had. JJ did work very hard on conditioning and reading the game so not to say Dre is innocent but we don't run our offense through him for better or worse. One thing that frustrated me with him is that his handle isn't terrible. Yes, it doesn't appear he worked on it that much but I forget what game it was but Len Elmore was saying how well Dre could shoot off the dribble (which many disagreed and rightly so) but he did have several mid-range shots off the dribble a la Snaer today. Imagine if he just goes two dribbles to the baseline or the elbow after someone closes out on him he should get a wide open shot.

MartyClark
03-10-2012, 07:10 PM
I totally agree with you re: Quinn and think he will emerge next year. Thornton's a great role player, but no team can afford to play a point guard that gets "0" assists and has limited shooting ability. Quinn showed flashes today and should really improve next year.

I have also had this thought. I think Quinn has a big upside. If he can get rid of any lingering knee issues and really work in the offseason, I think he will be markedly better next year.

Saratoga2
03-10-2012, 07:13 PM
There were many unforced errors today to go along with the TO's that the FSU defense directly caused. Mason, Miles and Seth all have problems with TO's, but all also play hard and make some good plays as well. Throwing the ball to no one in particular, badly timed fouls and the usual bumbling all cost us possessions in a very close game.

Then there is Austin, who is truly a gifted player, but who is not totally over forcing plays resulting in turnovers. I felt sorry for Andre on a couple of plays where he was unguarded and desperately calling for the ball only to have Austin's laser focused on driving only. I wonder what Andre's future is with this team?

I thought Quinn came in and added a lot of energy to the offense. We went from down 10 to up. Part of it was his changing our offensive style.

So we played solid defense but had very little offensive coherence. For those calling for the guards to feed the post more often, you have to see what our bigs are capable of doing. Way too many mishandles, walking, offensive fouls from them. I doubt if feeding them more is any answer to our offensive limitations.

This has been another fun season and we may get a couple more wins to enjoy during the tournament.

Beyond that, we are still a team next year with much the same personnel, with the exception of Miles and probably Austin. Since Marshall, Alex and Michael did not rate getting any or little significant PT this year, one has to assume they were not deemed to have better capability than the players currently active for Duke. The one new guard is not likely to be as good as Austin. We will remain small at guard and somewhat limited with our bigs. Perhaps coach K can find new and exciting recruits in the following year.

75Crazie
03-10-2012, 07:14 PM
I think you all need to cut Quinn a bit of slack here. Point guard has to be THE single most difficult position for a freshman to step into. Kyries and Jasons come along very seldom, and we were blessed to have two of them within 10 years. Even Hurley struggled mightily his first year, when he got the job pretty much by default. And remember that Quinn was injured before the year started and didn't get the benefit of a full season of maturing. I see a lot to like in him and think we will be singing his praises before he leaves Duke.

ChicagoCrazy84
03-10-2012, 07:19 PM
I have also had this thought. I think Quinn has a big upside. If he can get rid of any lingering knee issues and really work in the offseason, I think he will be markedly better next year.


You know what would be tremendous? To have a guard that has a mid-range game. I find it baffling that between Rivers, Dawkins, Cook, and Thornton, not one of them has a mid-range game. Curry does kind of, but honestly of our WHOLE TEAM, Ryan Kelly is our only guy that has a mid-range game. I really don't like watching a team throw up 20-25 3's per game it's just not good offense.

Since we have no mid-range game, no post presence, and no "true" PG, why don't we just push the pace more? The Plumlee's want to run, AR wants to run, and it would probably be good for TT and QC. At this point, it seems to be our best option. Get a rebound, find a dang outlet, and get the ball up the court as fast as you possibly can. Good ole fashion run and gun.

ChicagoCrazy84
03-10-2012, 07:21 PM
I think you all need to cut Quinn a bit of slack here. Point guard has to be THE single most difficult position for a freshman to step into. Kyries and Jasons come along very seldom, and we were blessed to have two of them within 10 years. Even Hurley struggled mightily his first year, when he got the job pretty much by default. And remember that Quinn was injured before the year started and didn't get the benefit of a full season of maturing. I see a lot to like in him and think we will be singing his praises before he leaves Duke.

Will Avery was pretty good too ;)

hq2
03-10-2012, 07:25 PM
Vitale: I'd love to upend a milk pail onto his head and bang on it with a wrench.

My sentiments exactly. Vitale's always been bad, but in recent years he's become a total babbling idiot.
They always assign him to Duke games because he loves the Cameron Crazies; but I don't think they
love him back any more. Time to find an online radio feed of Duke games when he's on. The sooner
he retires, the better.

On other topics; what's happened to Mason lately? He isn't finishing well at the rim, isn't using his
jump hook, and is turning the ball over a lot. Looks like he did at about the beginning of last year.
Certainly not encouraging for the NCAAs.

dukedoc
03-10-2012, 07:30 PM
Not a surprise, but worth acknowledging. Coach K congratulates FSU in person VIDEO (http://floridastate.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=1061&CID=1341614)

AsiaMinor
03-10-2012, 07:31 PM
Not a surprise, but worth acknowledging. Coach K congratulates FSU in person VIDEO (http://floridastate.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=1061&CID=1341614)

If only the posters on these boards had half the class of Coach K.
JMJ people, Duke is one of the best teams in the nation.
Stop picking these teenagers to bits and pieces after every game.
Enjoy the sport, enjoy the try, be proud.
I sure am.
And if your ego demands that you puff and blow from your
easy chair - because I firmly doubt any of you could execute
the plays on the floor - then do it tempered with some degree of humility.
God did not decree that Duke win every game every year.

gwlaw99
03-10-2012, 07:35 PM
My sentiments exactly. Vitale's always been bad, but in recent years he's become a total babbling idiot.
They always assign him to Duke games because he loves the Cameron Crazies; but I don't think they
love him back any more. Time to find an online radio feed of Duke games when he's on. The sooner
he retires, the better.

On other topics; what's happened to Mason lately? He isn't finishing well at the rim, isn't using his
jump hook, and is turning the ball over a lot. Looks like he did at about the beginning of last year.
Certainly not encouraging for the NCAAs.

I was lucky to have a local feed. Vitale is like a friend who stays ay your house, but doesn't know that it was time to leave a year ago.

hldurham
03-10-2012, 07:36 PM
Its good now I can relax tommorrow,UNC would have beat us again anyway. Hope we dont meet the Heels in The Tourney.

ChicagoCrazy84
03-10-2012, 07:45 PM
If only the posters on these boards had half the class of Coach K.
JMJ people, Duke is one of the best teams in the nation.
Stop picking these teenagers to bits and pieces after every game.
Enjoy the sport, enjoy the try, be proud.
I sure am.
And if your ego demands that you puff and blow from your
easy chair - because I firmly doubt any of you could execute
the plays on the floor - then do it tempered with some degree of humility.
God did not decree that Duke win every game every year.


My high school coach had a bit of a mean streak which made us wonder sometimes the same thing, if he could execute the plays. I learned though after some time, that it doesn't matter. We played a lot, practiced a lot, and ultimately were chosen to represent our school because WE were the ones best suited to execute plays and be play makers. I took pride in that and its also why I take pride in being a Duke fan. I get angry sometimes...sometimes its because I wish I was one of the lucky few that got to play D1. I'm not apologizing for getting on our guys' sometimes. Its what fans do and its what helps keeps us engaged and watching or going to games... to watch and enjoy, but also analyze and nitpick. I a lot of times take solace in coming on the board and seeing what people have to say so I know that what has to be corrected is ultimately going to be taken care of.

jipops
03-10-2012, 07:55 PM
At this point, there's not much to say about this game specifically. At this point, it's all about the big picture. In two games here, Duke chose to go defense over offense without Kelly. In some ways that really seemed to help the defense, but it's hard to tell for sure given that FSU and Va Tech aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. Duke held their own on the glass for both games, and didn't allow great shooting nights from either one, but they only marginally increased their turnover output from what they had been forcing for most of the year. The other thing is that both games were low possession games so the efficiency increase isn't as great as it might seem (In the FSU game, they still gave up about a point per possession). Against a quality offensive team, I'm not sure that this defensive strategy works as well.

The offense was a complete mess in both games. Without Kelly, Duke can't use its spacing to stretch the D. The Plumlees will come out and set screens, but end up with the ball in their hands more than 15 ft from the basket way too much. There is very little that either one will give you from that range, either dribbling, or shooting. Without the spacing, you have to rely on screens and dribbling to get open, but the book is out on Duke's two favorite plays for that, a down screen on the wing, and a hand off up high. Those two plays were shut down completely. Even on simple passes around the perimeter, only Thornton would end up open, which is exactly the way other teams wanted it. Out of 17 3's in two games, about 14 or 15 were wide open (the others were end of shot clock scenarios), but he shot under 25% overall. There's no incentive for the other team to stay honest with those numbers on wide open shots. When you're covered that tightly, you think of two ways to beat it, passing and dribbling, but Duke isn't great at either of those. Duke is 287th in the country at A/FGM, and that rate has actually been worse than average recently. Without the spacing or shooting threats, teams can pack it in, which takes away cutting to the hoop and finesse driving. Whether it's at this level or the next level, the biggest thing Rivers needs to do is add muscle to drive with power. When he get near the rim, his drives usually end with a reverse layup, an underhanded shot, or a floater. His floater isn't at the level of a guy like Nolan Smith, so defenses let him have it. On the other shots, he has a very low release point, which makes it easy to block, or at least alter without fouling, and turns it into a lower percentage shot. Duke gets plently of shots from 8 feet and in, but they are always the lowest percentage shots possible. Even after all of that, everything is still one-on-one for this team against their opponents offense. I still find it baffling that for a team who only has one guy who's great at getting his own shot that they have such a low assist rate. This team has saved themselves all year with spacing, but with Thornton in the game and no Kelly, there are only going to be two three point threats that other teams are afraid of, and Duke's offense will stuggle big time in that scenario.

What I think Duke needs to do to help alleviate this is push the pace. If they're half court offense is struggling as much as it is, the best way to curtail that is to not let the defense get set. That's a lot easier said than done, especially with the sloppy play we've seen, but I think it's the best shot they have against a big team to score points. Against a small team, many of these problems go away, because the Plumlees have proven themselves to be able to dominate small teams, but Duke will struggle with big teams. The good news as long as Duke's one seed is not a big ten team (there aren't even any currently projected big ten one seeds), they have a 50/50 shot of drawing Michigan as their 3 seed, since the first three teams from a conference have to be in separate regions. Out of the projected three seeds, the only team that is really a bad matchup for Duke is Baylor. Michigan and Marqutte are small and both would be great matchups, and Georgetown has less size than Georgetown normally has. The seven through ten seeds are much more fluid, and there are definitely some bad matchups in the group. With or without Kelly, I think that matchups will play a bigger part in Duke's fate than it has in the past. That doesn't mean they can't beat a bad matchup or lose to a good one, but I'd say that it is less likely than in other years.

Thanks for the most thorough and probably most level-headed breakdown in this thread.

I'm not sure if strength will improve Austin's release point on his drives. I could see it helping him absorb contact , but I don't see it helping him get any higher.

I felt this way in the Kelly vigil thread about our offense once news came out that Kelly was going to be out. Unlike a team like UNC losing Henson, the makeup of our offense is very different because we have no other player even remotely resembling a stretch 4. We're a far easier team to defend when there isn't much floor space to have to cover. Kelly gave us a lot of shots at the elbow or on the baseline which moved the defense out of the middle. Now with the hand-off and down screen taken away as you pointed out we have one player on the roster with the skill level to actually take advantage of one-on-one plays.

This makes people moan-and-groan but I would have liked to have seen us go really small in this tournament and push the offense quicker as you stated. This may not have worked anyways because we probably don't have the team speed needed to accomplish this. It's also possible that Andre's poor showings on defense lately could have squashed this. Not to pin it on him, but if there wasn't going to be a way to compensate on D, then that could be a reason for not going down that path.

I don't think our offense has actually regressed this season. Obviously losing Kelly this weekend was the major part of our offensive struggles, combined with the fact that we played one of the better defensive teams in the country today. As SCMatt33 has stated, I'm curious if our defensive output translates the same against teams that tend to score more.

turnandburn55
03-10-2012, 08:00 PM
To be fair to Andre here, he was well covered almost all of the time he was on the floor today. One of the problems with Ryan Kelly being out is that it makes it easier for defenses to cover the other shooters, and we had to play good defensive teams yesterday and today. (Today, in fact, I think it would be fair to say we played an excellent defensive team.)

Your're right, Andre was well covered. I expect more out of him though. Remember how well covered J.J. was most games? Remember how hard he ran and fought to get open? I don't see any of that from Andre. There are lots of guys, playing for lesser programs, who can hit an open three. Getting open when you are well guarded by a good opponent is a different deal. Andre lately has seemed unwilling or unable to accomplish this.

His body language doesn't exactly inspire confidence either. One instance in the first half where he was literally jumping up and down because he wasn't getting the ball... he's such a feast or famine player that you just wonder how to fit him into the bigger picture. It just seems like his role in the offense is precisely the same as it was against Baylor in the Elite Eight two years ago... come off the bench, see if you can hit a couple threes. I guess here's hoping that he gets the hot hand when we need it most again??

Reilly
03-10-2012, 08:01 PM
Thirteen of the last 15 Duke teams brought home a serious piece of hardware, either:

- a regular season ACC championship
- an ACC tournament championship
- a Final Four berth; or
- a national title.

... or more than one of those things. See: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/

The only two squads in the past 15 years that did not bring home one of those big four trophies were 2007 and 2008.

The 2007 team went out in the 1st round of the NCAAs; the 2008 team went out in the 2d round.

Right now, 2012 is looking a bit like 2008 in terms of overall accomplishment.

2012: 27 wins, early season tourney crown, ACC semis exit, AP high rank of 3, NCAA: ????????
2008: 28 wins, early season tourney crown, ACC semis exit, AP high rank of 2, NCAA: round of 32 exit

Just crazy to bring home big trophies 13 out of 15 years. May yet get a big one this year ...... hopefully 2012 finishes stronger than 2008 did.

MB in MD
03-10-2012, 08:19 PM
Hats off to FSU for taking away our drives. They killed the pick and roll, jumping out the right way and stepping up to fill driving lanes. Great D.

I've been thinking about this a lot because we need the pick and roll if our 3 game is going to be effective going forward against a decent defensive team. We obviously generate a lot of offense off of our screens (not today, but in general), but having the screener roll to the basket for the pass is almost never the option we choose; whether that's on the guards, or the bigs, or the coaches, I'm not sure. To me, the pick and roll was there all day because their bigs were so concerned with doubling off the screens and preventing the 3, which they did to perfection. But I was watching our bigs; they had a bit of space on every one of those hedges, but either didn't time their cuts right, or our guards tried that one more dribble to get open instead of looking to release. The pick and roll is a beautiful play when the timing is right, but there's only a split second when the easy bucket is available. Even Dickie V, in a true blind chicken moment, said something about our timing being off on those plays.

weezie
03-10-2012, 08:31 PM
Hope we dont meet the Heels in The Tourney.

I kinda hope we do. Because it will mean we're in the championship game!

Although I might have to breathe into a paper bag to survive it.

Duke76
03-10-2012, 08:33 PM
The game of basketball, most of the time, requires the passing of the ball. We seem to have forgotten how.


Best post of the night....I'd like to know how many times one of big guys set a pick and rolled to basket or posted up and the guard with the ball just looked away and starting dribbling...never seen a K team dribble as much as this one

uh_no
03-10-2012, 08:34 PM
I kinda hope we do. Because it will mean we're in the championship game!

Although I might have to breathe into a paper bag to survive it.

not necessarily. But it would likely not be until the final four, for sure

Duke76
03-10-2012, 08:37 PM
His body language doesn't exactly inspire confidence either. One instance in the first half where he was literally jumping up and down because he wasn't getting the ball... he's such a feast or famine player that you just wonder how to fit him into the bigger picture. It just seems like his role in the offense is precisely the same as it was against Baylor in the Elite Eight two years ago... come off the bench, see if you can hit a couple threes. I guess here's hoping that he gets the hot hand when we need it most again??


Maybe it's because he's wide open and the guard with the ball just looks him off and drives to the basket intent on putting it up

kmspeaks
03-10-2012, 08:37 PM
Hope we dont meet the Heels in The Tourney.


I kinda hope we do. Because it will mean we're in the championship game!

We're not going to play carolina in the title game....unless the Mayans were off by about 8 or 9 months

hq2
03-10-2012, 08:39 PM
2008: 28 wins, early season tourney crown, ACC semis exit, AP high rank of 2, NCAA: round of 32 exit

Looks about right. The way this team's playing now, an early exit wouldn't be a surprise. Since this team's NCAA distance
depends on matchups and 3 point shooting, it's clearly a crap shoot; but the way we're playing now, looks like we will
crap out sooner rather than later.

Atlanta Duke
03-10-2012, 08:40 PM
Maybe he is making the best of the limitations of this year's team, but this quote after today's loss would appear to indicate K (described in the linked article by Atlanta Journal-Constitution columnist Mark Bradley as "at worst the second-best coach in the history of the sport") feels better about the team than he did after the St. Johns win

“This was not an X-and-O game; this was an effort game. If you lose, you want the kind of effort I had from my team. This was a winning effort.”

http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2012/03/10/florida-state-puts-up-its-dukes-and-crashes-the-acc-final/?cxntfid=blogs_mark_bradley_blog

Next play

Edouble
03-10-2012, 08:41 PM
Let me rephrase this. Quinn can only be a "true PG" due to his God given size. So my apologies for the "true PG" confusion. I guess the point I'm trying to make is at this point I cannot see Quinn as a game-changer for Duke at the PG spot. That could change with time as he gets stronger and more mature as a player. He's a freshman and Kyrie's aren't bred everyday. I'm sure its just me being a spoiled Duke fan or even having a Kyrie-hangover. But when I see Quinn play (in limited minutes of course), I don't see game-changer at the PG spot. He seems to fit the Sean Dock, Ty Thornton mold to me. Feedback?

While I was watching the game, I decided that Quinn was probably going to be my man-of-the-match if we won. When he came into the game in the second half, he actually changed the momentum of the game, pulling it away from FSU and putting it on Duke. He either had a pass or a score and then he stole the ball on the inbounds and scored. Those 4 points really cut into the FSU lead and suddenly our fans were cheering and the 'Noles were knocked back a bit. I would say he can easily be a game changer and is a pretty pure point guard. He looks really comfortable and capable handing the ball.

DesertDevil
03-10-2012, 08:50 PM
Two things before I ask my question - (1) this is not a bashing thing, I love Mason to death and (2) if this has been asked somewhere already, I apologize.

Is it me, or does it seem that Mason has checked out mentally for stretches of games the last few weeks. A couple times today, he just looked like he wasn't mentally into things and then he plays well for a stretch. Mostly I notice this of the defensive end. Several times today, he missed help assignments that are pretty simple.

Just curious if I was the only one sensing this.

CajunDevil
03-10-2012, 08:51 PM
Quinn helped us recover from deficits in both halves and, despite getting picked by Snaer for an easy deuce and his airball from three, he had an excellent game. His vision is superb - he hit Hairston with a very nice pass on the break, and he has a knack for finishing drives to the hoop. I wish he had better straight-line speed, but hopefully the off-season will help his knee/legs get stronger/more explosive. He has decent form on his shot and when he matures and gets more comfortable playing in big settings will become a stud for us, imo. Quinn is much better than Dockery was at this stage and slightly behind Avery.

uh_no
03-10-2012, 09:04 PM
Two things before I ask my question - (1) this is not a bashing thing, I love Mason to death and (2) if this has been asked somewhere already, I apologize.

Is it me, or does it seem that Mason has checked out mentally for stretches of games the last few weeks. A couple times today, he just looked like he wasn't mentally into things and then he plays well for a stretch. Mostly I notice this of the defensive end. Several times today, he missed help assignments that are pretty simple.

Just curious if I was the only one sensing this.

At least tonight, he must have been exhausted. He played 37 minutes in a tough VT game yesterday. That may be some of the reason. Last night he had to play many minutes against josh hairston, with whom he hasn't played a ton of minutes. He played great against carolina, less some missed shots.

I think our lack of a proven point guard hurts him. Now, nothing against tyler or quinn or austin or whoever....but they aren't Scheyer, they aren't nolan, and they aren't kyrie. THey'll come into their own, I'm sure, but I think it must be hard as a big man to be playing with guys who may not be as adept at getting you the ball in the right places as previous guys might have been.

greybeard
03-10-2012, 09:15 PM
i BELIEVE THAT K MADE IT CHRYSTAL CLEAR QUITE RECENTLY THAT THIS TEAM'S OFFENSE IS THE 3-BALL, IT WILL LIVE OR DIE WITH IT. THIS TEAM DOES NOT DEPLOY WITH A "POINT GUARD" AS SUCH. NOR DID IT DO SO PAULUS'S SENIOR YEAR. OFFENSE COMES FROM THE WINGS. IN PAULUS' SENIOR YEAR, THAT MEANT IN THE MAIN, PENITRATION AT A SLOW PACE TO THE FOUL LINE, KICKING IT FOR AN OPEN THREE (EITHER BY THE INITIAL RECEIVER OR AFTER A PASS TO A SECOND), STOPPING FOR A JUMP SHOT, OR TAKING IT TO THE RIM. THERE WERE OTHER THINGS GOING ON BUT THAT WAS THE MEAT OF IT.

THE MEAT OF IT NOW IS THAT, WHEN RYAN IS HEALTHY, DUKE HAS FOUR EXTRAORDINARILY GOOD 3-BALL SHOOTERS, AND WILL ALMOST ALWAYS HAVE THREE OF THEM ON THE COURT. SCREENS WERE SET FOR CURRY AND RIVERS TO GENERATE SCORING, THERE WAS MOVEMENT ON THE EXTERIOR, PLAYS WERE RUNTO GET RYAN AND DRE THREE-BALL SHOTS, AND PLAYS WERE RUN TO GET MASON SCORING CHANCES. MASON DELIVERED BUT DID NOT SEE THE BALL VERY MUCH, PROBABLY FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS THAT MADE GOING FOR THE THREE BALL PRIORITY NUMBER ONE.

IF K WANTED RUN THE OFFENSE TO GET MORE SCORING INSIDE FROM MASON, AND TO A LESSER EXTANT FROM RYAN AND MILES, I'M SURE THAT THIS TEAM HAS BEEN TRAINED TO RUN THAT TYPE SCHEME; IN FACT, WE HAVE SEEN THEM DO IT, AT LEAST FOR PARTS, SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT PARTS, OF A GAME.
FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, I THINK THAT MASON IS MORE THAN A LITTLE BURNT AND IS PLAYING ON FUMES. WITHOUT RYAN, HIS DEFENSE AND DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING HAVE TO TAKE FIRST AND SECOND AND THIRD PRIORITY.

ACTUALLY, WITH DRE NOT GETTING MANY MINUTES, I THINK THAT THE ENTIRE UNIT IS DOG TIRED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MILES AND H.

A WEEK'S REST MIGHT DO WONDERS. IF IT DOES AND DRE GETS GOING (WHOEVER SAID THE KID CAN'T SHOOT WITH A DEFENDER DRAPED ALL OVER HIM, WELL, WHAT CAN I SAY), I THINK THAT THESE GUYS ARE QUITE FORMIDABLE EVEN IF RYAN DOESN'T COME BACK OR COMES BACK BUT IS ONLY A SHADOW OF HIS USUAL SELF.

THIS FSU TEAM IS THE REAL DEAL AND YOUR GUYS TOOK THEM DOWN BUT FOR SOME AMAZING OFFENSE BY FSU IN THE FINAL 5 MINUTES. COMING BACK AS THEY DID, CATCHING AND GRABBING THE LEAD, HAD TO TAKE EVERYTHING THEY HAD, AND STILL THEY WERE A SHOT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER FROM WINNING.

IF DRE AND RYAN ARE PLAYING UP TO PAR, TYLER IS PERFECT FOR SETTLING THE QUICK TRIGGERS DOWN, WHICH USUALLY MEANS THAT K WILL BE RUNNING SETS TO GET MASON THE BALL, AND TYLER IS THE CLOSEST THING TO A BEAST ON THE DEFENSIVE END THAT THIS TEAM HAS. HE GIVES SO MUCH ON DEFENSE, GETTING LOOSE BALLS, LONG REBOUNDS, TRYING TO PUT THE BALL IN THE HANDS OF THE OUTSIDE CREATORS THAT IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE TO ME THAT HE WILL NOT SHOOT WELL FROM THE THREE LINE WHEN CALLED UPON TO DO SO AS OFTEN AS HE HAS BEEN THESE LAST TWO GAMES. HE EMBODIES THIS TEAM'S HEART, AND DOES THE THINGS THAT K WANTS DONE.

THIS TEAM MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN AS GOOD AFTER HAVING LOST KYLE AND NOLAN, OR LANCE, BRIAN, AND SCHEYER FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS, BUT THEY ARE PRETTY DARN FORMIDABLE. THEY CAN BEAT THE TEAMS THEY SHOULD WITHOUT DRE, BUT WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TME BEATING TEAMS THAT THEY ONLY HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT BEATING UNLESS DRE CAN PUT A HURT ON THEM. YES, THEY NEED RYAN TO MAX OUT, BUT DRE IS THE ONE GUY WHO CAN NAIL 3 OR 4 IN A ROW WITH NO ONE BEING ABLE TO ANYTHING ABOUT IT. IF HE DOES THAT, THIS HERE TEAM HAS GOT TO PUT REAL CONCERN ON ANYBODY WHOM THEY ARE ABOUT TO FACE.

I THINK THAT WE HAVE SEEN RAW COURAGE FROM DUKE THESE LAST FEW GAMES; GUYS LAYING THEMSELVES BARE, NAKED WHILE MUSTERING AMAZING FORAYS AND STANDS. OUTCOMES ARE IMPORTANT; THESE GUYS ARE KIDS, KIDS WHO WERE OUTSIDIZED, KIDS WHO WERE SHOOTING WITH NO LEGS UNDER THEM, KIDS WHO WENT TOE TO TOE WITH TALENTED AND WELL COACHED OPPONENTS AND NOT ONLY NEVER STEPPED BACK, BUT KEPT ON COMING. IN THIS LAST GAME, FSU MADE SOME AMAZING PLAYES DOWN THE STRETCH, SO DID DUKE, BUT FSU MADE A COUPLE MORE. "THIS FEW, THIS BAND OF BROTHERS," IN WAYS THAT COUNT THE MOST, IS AMONG DUKE'S FINEST.

LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING A REFRESHED MASON ET AL, A REASONABLY HEALED RYAN, AND DRE BEING DRE GO OUT AND HURT SOME PEOPLE. sHOULD BE A HOOT. GREY

Edouble
03-10-2012, 09:21 PM
Looks about right. The way this team's playing now, an early exit wouldn't be a surprise. Since this team's NCAA distance
depends on matchups and 3 point shooting, it's clearly a crap shoot; but the way we're playing now, looks like we will
crap out sooner rather than later.

IDK, I think FSU is a Final Four quality team. If things had gone slightly differently, we would be playing for an ACC Championship tomorrow. Also, a lot of people are screaming for change in our offense and defense (I am one of them), and there were changes made in our playing style this weekend. I don't think this team is done growing. It would have been easy to give up in the second half, but we hung in and almost won. I'll go on record saying that I am excited about the team and our chances in March. Go Duke!!!

Kedsy
03-10-2012, 09:30 PM
But I am waking up and getting to the S16 seems to be about as far as I can realistically look at this team and for a top10 team, that feels like a disappointment.

Well, if every top 10 team wins until they hit another top ten team, two of them will end up losing in the Sweet 16. Not sure why that's automatically a disappointment.


The negativity is out of hand. ... Let's have fun with the team we have.

Well said. Thanks.


I wouldn't make so much of our offensive struggles - we are not the same team without Ryan and we just played one of the best (if not the best) defensive team we will see this year. As long as Ryan comes back near full-strength, I think we will be fine offensively (although I hope Andre finds his mojo!)

I am more interested in whether we can keep up our defensive intensity. If we play at our best defensively, the S16 or E8 become realistic - whether we are a 2 or 3 seed. On to Greensboro!

Also well said.


I can't remember the last time this season a PG penetrated and made a nice pass to the bigs in the lane.

Do you remember yesterday? Seth did it at least three times.


Things aren't looking as bright right now

Yeah, almost as bleak as it looked in October 2009, right after Harrison Barnes spurned us for the defending champs.


I'm particularly discouraged by Andre's invisible man act.

Andre torched FSU last time out. They specifically designed their game plan to stop him. Yeah, I was a little disappointed he couldn't have stepped up anyway, but since we don't run plays for him and we don't set screens for him, I imagine it's difficult. I didn't find it discouraging that he couldn't overcome one of the best defenses in the country keying on him specifically.


Beyond that, we are still a team next year with much the same personnel, with the exception of Miles and probably Austin. Since Marshall, Alex and Michael did not rate getting any or little significant PT this year, one has to assume they were not deemed to have better capability than the players currently active for Duke. The one new guard is not likely to be as good as Austin. We will remain small at guard and somewhat limited with our bigs. Perhaps coach K can find new and exciting recruits in the following year.

Well, this season isn't over yet. But even looking at next season, I always find it astonishing that people fail to recognize that players improve every year. If we have the exact same personnel, we'll be much better. Since we'll be adding Alex, Marshall, and Rasheed (and maybe more) and subtracting Miles and maybe Austin and maybe Mason, it's hard to say, but my guess is we'll probably be better.

And you know what? Even if we aren't any better, if we have the same year we've had this year, it would be pretty darn good. No matter how we fare in the NCAAT.

Kedsy
03-10-2012, 09:31 PM
You know what would be tremendous? To have a guard that has a mid-range game. I find it baffling that between Rivers, Dawkins, Cook, and Thornton, not one of them has a mid-range game. Curry does kind of, but honestly of our WHOLE TEAM, Ryan Kelly is our only guy that has a mid-range game. I really don't like watching a team throw up 20-25 3's per game it's just not good offense.

Well, statistically, the mid-range shot is the worst shot in basketball. As long as we hit a good percentage of three (and I realized we didn't this weekend, but FSU and VPI are very good at defending the three), I'd much rather take those shots than a bunch of mid-range shots.




Its good now I can relax tommorrow,UNC would have beat us again anyway.

They beat us once; we beat them once. What makes you so sure of the outcome?

sporthenry
03-10-2012, 09:35 PM
Well, if every top 10 team wins until they hit another top ten team, two of them will end up losing in the Sweet 16. Not sure why that's automatically a disappointment.



I figured someone would try to bring this up. But its like when you are a top 2-3 team, its a disappointment if you don't win it all. Do you think the Patriots felt good being a top 2-3 team and then losing in the Championship? Any fanbase that has a 2 seed has at minimum expectations of making the E8. Yet, most of our board is resigned to hoping we can get to the 2nd weekend.

MCFinARL
03-10-2012, 09:36 PM
Maybe it's because he's wide open and the guard with the ball just looks him off and drives to the basket intent on putting it up

Yeah, that might make me jump up and down too. Andre has had some defensive lapses, which have had a negative impact on his playing time. But on offense I think some of his ups and downs stem from teammates not finding him open at the right time--just as some of Mason's and Miles's ups and downs have stemmed from mistimed or never made passes in to them.

tendev
03-10-2012, 09:39 PM
If only the posters on these boards had half the class of Coach K.
JMJ people, Duke is one of the best teams in the nation.
Stop picking these teenagers to bits and pieces after every game.
Enjoy the sport, enjoy the try, be proud.
I sure am.
And if your ego demands that you puff and blow from your
easy chair - because I firmly doubt any of you could execute
the plays on the floor - then do it tempered with some degree of humility.
God did not decree that Duke win every game every year.

During the heat of the battle, Coach K undoubtedly uses some less than classy words to describe the play of his team. The posters on this board are no worse. At the end of the day, K and the rest of us are human and get caught up in the emotion of the game. We all all realize these are teenagers; it is an infrequent occurrence when someone goes over the top.

I for one am tired of hearing the holier than thou attitude of other posters, which yours in an example of. We are fans, we enjoy watching the game and we have to let out our emotions during and after the game. Coach K does the same.

In the words of Sargeant Hulka, lighten up Francis.

MCFinARL
03-10-2012, 09:48 PM
Agree that Quinn IS a true PG, but I think Tyler does have a legit claim to PT. He's a gamer, man, no matter what his limitations are. You can NEVER criticize his effort.



I am actually pretty optimistic about PG next year, as I expect Quinn to make substantial progress as he matures and improves his defense. I think the team might work very well with Quinn and Tyler both getting substantial minutes--Quinn when offense needs to be stronger, with defense still adequate (which I think we will see from him), Tyler when defense needs to be stronger than offense. Agree with you that Quinn shows some heart and leadership potential, as does Tyler.

Chris Randolph
03-10-2012, 09:54 PM
Waiting for DBR to blow up... Waiting.. Waiting..

Been some interesting posts about the team after this game. My 2 cents:

FSU is better than Duke, proven by a 2-1 record. Kelly would have helped but not sure he'd make a huge difference. Hope FSU beats UNC.

Personally, I was not surprised by today. Since January I thought this team would not make the ACCT final and would be out of the NCAAT the first weekend. It doesn't mean I'm not a fan, it is just based on what my knowledge of basketball tells me (and it might not be a lot of knowledge). I hope Kelly comes back and that Duke makes a nice run but if not I won't think it is the end of the world

tendev
03-10-2012, 09:58 PM
Waiting for DBR to blow up... Waiting.. Waiting..

Been some interesting posts about the team after this game. My 2 cents:

FSU is better than Duke, proven by a 2-1 record. Kelly would have helped but not sure he'd make a huge difference. Hope FSU beats UNC.

Personally, I was not surprised by today. Since January I thought this team would not make the ACCT final and would be out of the NCAAT the first weekend. It doesn't mean I'm not a fan, it is just based on what my knowledge of basketball tells me (and it might not be a lot of knowledge). I hope Kelly comes back and that Duke makes a nice run but if not I won't think it is the end of the world

Oh, I can't believe you said that. You should be banned forever. But actually I think we are evenly matched with FSU. They won today.

ice-9
03-10-2012, 10:03 PM
We're not going to play carolina in the title game....unless the Mayans were off by about 8 or 9 months

I believe they're talking about meeting UNC in the NCAA Tournament title game...

ChicagoCrazy84
03-10-2012, 10:11 PM
Oh, I can't believe you said that. You should be banned forever. But actually I think we are evenly matched with FSU. They won today.


They're just a tough match up for us. They have what tends to beat us...size, strength, length, experience, and some shooting. If we had Lance Thomas, we would have won :)

Does anyone know what people are saying with Kelly? Is the staff expecting back for round 1?

Kedsy
03-10-2012, 10:14 PM
FSU is better than Duke, proven by a 2-1 record.

That's pretty solid proof. I'd love to see what you have on Fermat's Last Theorem, while you're going about proving things.


Kelly would have helped but not sure he'd make a huge difference.

We lost by 3 points. You don't think Ryan is worth four points to Duke's team?

dyedwab
03-10-2012, 10:20 PM
This team has struggled more than any I can remember with many of those things we consider fundamental to Duke style basketball.

That has left me incredibly frustrated. It isn't about the wins and losses... it is about watching a team which, in some ways, seems to have so much potential but then seeing it struggle so mightily with consistency and strength and defense and focus and heart.

I cannot help but picture a first weekend knockout, as we are certainly not playing very good basketball, relatively, to close the year. It is amazing that we looked so much better at the very start of this season, and outside of Austin and Miles (and Josh, to be fair) our players have apparently regressed here at the end of the year or not played at all.

Very frustrating.

I've had less fun watching Duke this year then any I can remember - including the 94-95, 95-96, and 06-07 seasons. And this is why. We commit A LOT of unforced errors.

But, as much as I can picture a first weekend knockout, I'm also frustrated by the brave truth tellers who know for certain that we will go down in the first weekend. Because certainly those people had a VCU, a team that barely got into the field of 68 as a final four participant....after beating Kansas - perhaps the most talented team in country last year. Or that UConn would win the title last year after not even earning a bye in their conference tournament. And that, in 2006, George Mason, which many people thought shouldn't have made the tournament, went on a Final Four run.

My point is not that this team will make that kind of run. But it isn't exactly going out on a limb and defying conventional wisdom to tell us that this team will be done by the first weekend. It doesn't require special insight into our team, or even the matchups. With this teams talent, and with its maddening inconsistency, almost any outcome in the NCAAT is possible for this team - from being one of the few 2 seeds to lose in the first round (a fate we only barely missed against Belmont in 2008) to making a run all the way to the National Title (we will have beaten 3 of the other 7 top seeds, if we are a 2)

ChicagoCrazy84
03-10-2012, 10:21 PM
We lost by 3 points. You don't think Ryan is worth four points to Duke's team?[/QUOTE]


And in 3 games, WE have actually outscored FSU by 2 points. They are tough, and experienced. A good combo against a young team down the stretch.

rthomas
03-10-2012, 10:22 PM
i BELIEVE THAT K MADE IT CHRYSTAL CLEAR QUITE RECENTLY THAT THIS TEAM'S OFFENSE IS THE 3-BALL, IT WILL LIVE OR DIE WITH IT. THIS TEAM DOES NOT DEPLOY WITH A "POINT GUARD" AS SUCH. NOR DID IT DO SO PAULUS'S SENIOR YEAR. OFFENSE COMES FROM THE WINGS. IN PAULUS' SENIOR YEAR, THAT MEANT IN THE MAIN, PENITRATION AT A SLOW PACE TO THE FOUL LINE, KICKING IT FOR AN OPEN THREE (EITHER BY THE INITIAL RECEIVER OR AFTER A PASS TO A SECOND), STOPPING FOR A JUMP SHOT, OR TAKING IT TO THE RIM. THERE WERE OTHER THINGS GOING ON BUT THAT WAS THE MEAT OF IT.

THE MEAT OF IT NOW IS THAT, WHEN RYAN IS HEALTHY, DUKE HAS FOUR EXTRAORDINARILY GOOD 3-BALL SHOOTERS, AND WILL ALMOST ALWAYS HAVE THREE OF THEM ON THE COURT. SCREENS WERE SET FOR CURRY AND RIVERS TO GENERATE SCORING, THERE WAS MOVEMENT ON THE EXTERIOR, PLAYS WERE RUNTO GET RYAN AND DRE THREE-BALL SHOTS, AND PLAYS WERE RUN TO GET MASON SCORING CHANCES. MASON DELIVERED BUT DID NOT SEE THE BALL VERY MUCH, PROBABLY FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS THAT MADE GOING FOR THE THREE BALL PRIORITY NUMBER ONE.

IF K WANTED RUN THE OFFENSE TO GET MORE SCORING INSIDE FROM MASON, AND TO A LESSER EXTANT FROM RYAN AND MILES, I'M SURE THAT THIS TEAM HAS BEEN TRAINED TO RUN THAT TYPE SCHEME; IN FACT, WE HAVE SEEN THEM DO IT, AT LEAST FOR PARTS, SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT PARTS, OF A GAME.
FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, I THINK THAT MASON IS MORE THAN A LITTLE BURNT AND IS PLAYING ON FUMES. WITHOUT RYAN, HIS DEFENSE AND DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING HAVE TO TAKE FIRST AND SECOND AND THIRD PRIORITY.

ACTUALLY, WITH DRE NOT GETTING MANY MINUTES, I THINK THAT THE ENTIRE UNIT IS DOG TIRED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MILES AND H.

A WEEK'S REST MIGHT DO WONDERS. IF IT DOES AND DRE GETS GOING (WHOEVER SAID THE KID CAN'T SHOOT WITH A DEFENDER DRAPED ALL OVER HIM, WELL, WHAT CAN I SAY), I THINK THAT THESE GUYS ARE QUITE FORMIDABLE EVEN IF RYAN DOESN'T COME BACK OR COMES BACK BUT IS ONLY A SHADOW OF HIS USUAL SELF.

THIS FSU TEAM IS THE REAL DEAL AND YOUR GUYS TOOK THEM DOWN BUT FOR SOME AMAZING OFFENSE BY FSU IN THE FINAL 5 MINUTES. COMING BACK AS THEY DID, CATCHING AND GRABBING THE LEAD, HAD TO TAKE EVERYTHING THEY HAD, AND STILL THEY WERE A SHOT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER FROM WINNING.

IF DRE AND RYAN ARE PLAYING UP TO PAR, TYLER IS PERFECT FOR SETTLING THE QUICK TRIGGERS DOWN, WHICH USUALLY MEANS THAT K WILL BE RUNNING SETS TO GET MASON THE BALL, AND TYLER IS THE CLOSEST THING TO A BEAST ON THE DEFENSIVE END THAT THIS TEAM HAS. HE GIVES SO MUCH ON DEFENSE, GETTING LOOSE BALLS, LONG REBOUNDS, TRYING TO PUT THE BALL IN THE HANDS OF THE OUTSIDE CREATORS THAT IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE TO ME THAT HE WILL NOT SHOOT WELL FROM THE THREE LINE WHEN CALLED UPON TO DO SO AS OFTEN AS HE HAS BEEN THESE LAST TWO GAMES. HE EMBODIES THIS TEAM'S HEART, AND DOES THE THINGS THAT K WANTS DONE.

THIS TEAM MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN AS GOOD AFTER HAVING LOST KYLE AND NOLAN, OR LANCE, BRIAN, AND SCHEYER FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS, BUT THEY ARE PRETTY DARN FORMIDABLE. THEY CAN BEAT THE TEAMS THEY SHOULD WITHOUT DRE, BUT WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TME BEATING TEAMS THAT THEY ONLY HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT BEATING UNLESS DRE CAN PUT A HURT ON THEM. YES, THEY NEED RYAN TO MAX OUT, BUT DRE IS THE ONE GUY WHO CAN NAIL 3 OR 4 IN A ROW WITH NO ONE BEING ABLE TO ANYTHING ABOUT IT. IF HE DOES THAT, THIS HERE TEAM HAS GOT TO PUT REAL CONCERN ON ANYBODY WHOM THEY ARE ABOUT TO FACE.

I THINK THAT WE HAVE SEEN RAW COURAGE FROM DUKE THESE LAST FEW GAMES; GUYS LAYING THEMSELVES BARE, NAKED WHILE MUSTERING AMAZING FORAYS AND STANDS. OUTCOMES ARE IMPORTANT; THESE GUYS ARE KIDS, KIDS WHO WERE OUTSIDIZED, KIDS WHO WERE SHOOTING WITH NO LEGS UNDER THEM, KIDS WHO WENT TOE TO TOE WITH TALENTED AND WELL COACHED OPPONENTS AND NOT ONLY NEVER STEPPED BACK, BUT KEPT ON COMING. IN THIS LAST GAME, FSU MADE SOME AMAZING PLAYES DOWN THE STRETCH, SO DID DUKE, BUT FSU MADE A COUPLE MORE. "THIS FEW, THIS BAND OF BROTHERS," IN WAYS THAT COUNT THE MOST, IS AMONG DUKE'S FINEST.

LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING A REFRESHED MASON ET AL, A REASONABLY HEALED RYAN, AND DRE BEING DRE GO OUT AND HURT SOME PEOPLE. sHOULD BE A HOOT. GREY

Dude, You wrote that whole thing in caps. Wow.

gep
03-10-2012, 10:42 PM
Its good now I can relax tommorrow,UNC would have beat us again anyway. Hope we dont meet the Heels in The Tourney.


I kinda hope we do. Because it will mean we're in the championship game! Although I might have to breathe into a paper bag to survive it.

You beat me to it. But, like in 2001, I think it will be more possible to meet in the FF in the semifinal. I don't think the NCAA wants the same conference in the NC game.


They're just a tough match up for us. They have what tends to beat us...size, strength, length, experience, and some shooting. If we had Lance Thomas, we would have won :)

Does anyone know what people are saying with Kelly? Is the staff expecting back for round 1?

Not only that, the have a bunch of seniors, and even a 5th year senior. Very mature team. Hard to overcome when they also match up well.

johnpope
03-10-2012, 10:43 PM
And you know what? Even if we aren't any better, if we have the same year we've had this year, it would be pretty darn good. No matter how we fare in the NCAAT..

This makes no sense whatsoever... Are you saying that a 2nd place in the ACC (with three home losses!) and a potential early exit in the NCAA tournament is "pretty darn good"? For Duke? Really?

I can't understand people who blame others for being "negative", when many of us are just objective and try not to let our feelings for the team get in the way of analysis. In other words, we're trying to be adults about the whole situation and not sugarcoat it. What good would that do? I'm fairly new here, but I don't think this is a cheerleading board, or a "party propaganda" forum!

gep
03-10-2012, 10:45 PM
I think that sums up what many of us are feeling. It is a frustrating team b/c of the potential. And yes, we are spoiled fans to some degree to have that typical Duke standard to live up to. And perhaps we take that for granted a lot but I think thats also one of the reasons we love Duke. This team does have heart at least towards the end of games but I think many of us loved that we played smart and efficient and played tough on D which you can't always say here. I think K has had similar feelings as he almost seemed resigned with some of his comments about this team and is simplifying things on both sides of the ball. Heck, our execution out of timeouts seems to be at an all time low.

Yes, Duke has a tough standard to meet for the fanbase. This is also probably why Coach K has a hard time winning COY. So much is expected with a tough standard to live up to... in the eyes of the media.

jv001
03-10-2012, 10:52 PM
Here is what I hope happens beginning with our first game in the NCAAT. 1. Austin becomes more of a distributor of the ball and makes others better. I look to see him pass it when he drives. Even to Andre when he's open and jumping up and down so he can actually see him. 2. I want to see Mason use his Academic All-American status improve his basketball IQ. 3. I hope to see all of our perimeter guys move their feet on defense. 4. I want to see some blocking out from our big guys(small guys also). 5. I want to see an offense that just doesn't dribble the air out of the basketball and get caught with the shot clock running out. 6. I want to see us just one time come out of one of Coach K's timeouts and actually execute the play he's drawn up. These are just some thing that I think will happen beginning next week. GoDuke!

g-money
03-10-2012, 10:55 PM
Well, if every top 10 team wins until they hit another top ten team, two of them will end up losing in the Sweet 16. Not sure why that's automatically a disappointment.



Well said. Thanks.



Also well said.



Do you remember yesterday? Seth did it at least three times.



Yeah, almost as bleak as it looked in October 2009, right after Harrison Barnes spurned us for the defending champs.



Andre torched FSU last time out. They specifically designed their game plan to stop him. Yeah, I was a little disappointed he couldn't have stepped up anyway, but since we don't run plays for him and we don't set screens for him, I imagine it's difficult. I didn't find it discouraging that he couldn't overcome one of the best defenses in the country keying on him specifically.



Well, this season isn't over yet. But even looking at next season, I always find it astonishing that people fail to recognize that players improve every year. If we have the exact same personnel, we'll be much better. Since we'll be adding Alex, Marshall, and Rasheed (and maybe more) and subtracting Miles and maybe Austin and maybe Mason, it's hard to say, but my guess is we'll probably be better.

And you know what? Even if we aren't any better, if we have the same year we've had this year, it would be pretty darn good. No matter how we fare in the NCAAT.

+1 to Kedsy here for throwing a lot of the posters on this board a life preserver. I actually thought Duke gave a really good effort today. We played our best defense of the season by far. Miles was great today - both on the boards and in directing the defense. Hairston and Cook gave solid minutes off the bench.

Offensively we were challenged, but a lot of that is a credit to FSU's defensive effort as well as the physical nature of the game. When refs "let teams play" as they did today, it's rare to see a game reach the 70's, and it's hard for 6'-6'3" guards to drive in for easy layups (especially in comparison with the modern NBA).

Getting back to the big picture, I look at the conference tournaments around the country and see only one potentially dominant team: Kentucky. Syracuse showed they're vulnerable. UNC almost lost to an unranked NC State team today. Considering the way Kentucky will have a target on their backs, I would argue that it's going to be anyone's ballgame. The games are going to be physical, low-scoring, and close. Luck plays a huge role in these types of games.

Could we lose in the second round? Absolutely. Could we go on a run and make the Elite 8 or Final Four? If we can replicate today's defensive effort and hit some threes, I would say yes.

Billy Dat
03-10-2012, 11:08 PM
I just listened to K's presser, he was really snippy - you could tell how dissapointed he was (in losing, not in the team's effort which he lauded).

At halftime, I questioned the team's effort, but quickly switch to lamenting our lack of sharpness as the true culprit - the turnovers, the loss of seemingly every 50/50 ball, the ball never bouncing our way, the hands of stone, etc. K seemed to feel that was 100% on FSU's imposing their will. I felt like the same vibe leached into the second half but Cook's spark helped us cut that lead down and the final 10 was a pretty game to watch. Snaer was really tough, K gave him a lot of credit, said he was the best competitor in the ACC this year. Their D was very tough.

K talked a lot about Kelly and how his health is a major factor for the NCAAs. He mentioned that being placed in Greensboro is key so that he gets an extra day of rehab at Duke. He seemed very hopeful - which could just be media savvy in case the NCAA committee is listening.

As for feeding the post, we ran a really nice hi-lo, a Plumlee to Plumlee, and it was nice. I think we could have hit that a few more times from different angles and it would have freed up the perimeter a bit. But, for a lot of the game, our bigs were fumbling the ball around so maybe we wouldn't have executed, but I would have like to see us try.

I think Greybeard nailed the offense pretty well in his post, I guess what I'll add is that what seems to work against us is that really strong big man "show" on the pick and roll because neither Austin, Seth or Tyler show a strong ability to read that show, sometimes split it, and get the ball to an open man quickly to take advantage of the switch or scramble. Both Rivers and Curry try and get around that show but usually bounce outside and the D has a chance to recover and we've just lost 5-10 seconds on the shot clock. The we may have time for a one-on-one driv with the drive/kick option or that pull-up or step back 3. They know only Austin and Seth can make that shot with regularity, so those two get harrassed and Tyler is given the open look with his man pinches into the paint to prevent that post-entry. FSU was tough, though, I rarely saw Miles or Mason with great position. Against lesser defensive squads, we don't look as bad.

turnandburn55
03-10-2012, 11:14 PM
Well, this season isn't over yet. But even looking at next season, I always find it astonishing that people fail to recognize that players improve every year. If we have the exact same personnel, we'll be much better. Since we'll be adding Alex, Marshall, and Rasheed (and maybe more) and subtracting Miles and maybe Austin and maybe Mason, it's hard to say, but my guess is we'll probably be better..

Internal improvement is almost invariably the key component. Anyone think it was the net gain of Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly over Gerald Henderson and Elliot Williams that allowed us to win it all? Or was it Zoubek and Nolan Smith making big strides??

COYS
03-10-2012, 11:30 PM
I just listened to K's presser, he was really snippy - you could tell how dissapointed he was (in losing, not in the team's effort which he lauded).

At halftime, I questioned the team's effort, but quickly switch to lamenting our lack of sharpness as the true culprit - the turnovers, the loss of seemingly every 50/50 ball, the ball never bouncing our way, the hands of stone, etc. K seemed to feel that was 100% on FSU's imposing their will. I felt like the same vibe leached into the second half but Cook's spark helped us cut that lead down and the final 10 was a pretty game to watch. Snaer was really tough, K gave him a lot of credit, said he was the best competitor in the ACC this year. Their D was very tough.

K talked a lot about Kelly and how his health is a major factor for the NCAAs. He mentioned that being placed in Greensboro is key so that he gets an extra day of rehab at Duke. He seemed very hopeful - which could just be media savvy in case the NCAA committee is listening.

As for feeding the post, we ran a really nice hi-lo, a Plumlee to Plumlee, and it was nice. I think we could have hit that a few more times from different angles and it would have freed up the perimeter a bit. But, for a lot of the game, our bigs were fumbling the ball around so maybe we wouldn't have executed, but I would have like to see us try.

I think Greybeard nailed the offense pretty well in his post, I guess what I'll add is that what seems to work against us is that really strong big man "show" on the pick and roll because neither Austin, Seth or Tyler show a strong ability to read that show, sometimes split it, and get the ball to an open man quickly to take advantage of the switch or scramble. Both Rivers and Curry try and get around that show but usually bounce outside and the D has a chance to recover and we've just lost 5-10 seconds on the shot clock. The we may have time for a one-on-one driv with the drive/kick option or that pull-up or step back 3. They know only Austin and Seth can make that shot with regularity, so those two get harrassed and Tyler is given the open look with his man pinches into the paint to prevent that post-entry. FSU was tough, though, I rarely saw Miles or Mason with great position. Against lesser defensive squads, we don't look as bad.

Yeah, the offense has really become a lot less dynamic of late, although Kelly being out has a decent amount to do with it. And it's too bad because, the UNC game notwithstanding, our defense has actually been really good for the most part over the past 5 games. Earlier in the season . . . heck . . . just a few weeks ago I thought we did a great job getting everyone touches on offense in a variety of ways. Even when Mason was struggling we still got him the ball a good amount and he did a great job hitting open shooters or cutters as teams started to double team him. We had great success running the pick n' pop with Kelly and Seth (and occasionally Austin, but his screener was usually a Plumlee). And we even ran set on occasion to free Kelly on the baseline for a jumper that was similar to a play we frequently used for Kyle during his tenure. All this other movement made it harder for defenses to do things like take Andre completely out of the game because there were so many other ways for us to hurt them. Also, both FSU and VaTech did a great job staying at home on all of our shooters except for Tyler on drives.

Recently, it seems that our shooters have had a harder time getting open running off of screens because opposing defenses are sticking with them more consistently. The Austin (or Seth) pick n' roll with the Plumlees does very little to free anyone up because we almost never hit the rolling big man (whether because of height/line-of-sight issues with our relatively short guards in relation to the hedging big or simply a lack of court vision from Seth and Austin), allowing opposing big the freedom to hedge as aggressively as they possibly can knowing that it's unlikely the ball is going to go to the rolling screener. Teams have been doubling up on Mason quickly whenever Josh is in the game while staying home on our shooters except for Tyler. We've missed a lot of open threes, although part of that has been by the design of the opposition by essentially forcing Tyler into taking many of those shots by leaving him unguarded. Other than that, our offense seems to have lost the variety that made it one of the most efficient offenses in the country earlier in the season. Here's hoping a combination of adjustments from the coaching staff, a little rest for our shooters, and some opponents unfamiliar with us will allow us to get a few open looks. Here's also hoping Mason can get his low-post mojo back. He's still getting chances but has been pretty wasteful with them of late, although MAJOR props for the FT shooting.

Greg_Newton
03-10-2012, 11:31 PM
Well, this season isn't over yet. But even looking at next season, I always find it astonishing that people fail to recognize that players improve every year. If we have the exact same personnel, we'll be much better. Since we'll be adding Alex, Marshall, and Rasheed (and maybe more) and subtracting Miles and maybe Austin and maybe Mason, it's hard to say, but my guess is we'll probably be better.

I'd be surprised if we don't also subtract an unlisted player or two. However, I think the most important thing is to get two of Mason/Austin/Bazz for next year. If have two of those, we'll unquestionably be better. Just one, I don't know.

The problem is that the areas in which we really need to improve aren't easy to improve. It's not as easy to become longer or quicker laterally than it is to become a more reliable shooter through repetitions. Sheed and Alex will help if they can crack the rotation, but it's not like Dre, Curry, Thornton and Cook are going to become lockdown perimeter defenders over the summer.

I think some of the glumness is due to the fact that we're likely to still be a physically-challenged three-point shooting team, unless certain developments occur. I'd rather "live and die" by an athletic, suffocating defense any day over the precision by which one of our finesse players releases a 23-foot shot, regardless of how many games we win, and I think it may be a couple years before we have athletes out on the perimeter again.

CDu
03-10-2012, 11:36 PM
The problem is that the areas in which we really need to improve aren't easy to improve. It's not as easy to become longer or quicker laterally than it is to become a more reliable shooter. Sheed and Alex will help if they can crack the rotation, but it's not like Dre, Curry, Thornton and Cook are going to become lockdown perimeter defenders over the summer.

It's also hard to become a much better ballhandler or a much better passer. Those attributes seemed glaringly lacking on the court throughout the season (with the exception of Rivers and occasionally Cook and Curry in terms of ballhandling).

However, we'll have another year of experience together, and hopefully some of our guys can add some polish. Maybe the light switch goes off for Mason (if he returns). Maybe it goes off for Dawkins. Maybe Gbinije and/or Murphy really emerge next year. Maybe Cook makes a big leap.

trinity79
03-10-2012, 11:43 PM
.
I can't understand people who blame others for being "negative", when many of us are just objective and try not to let our feelings for the team get in the way of analysis. In other words, we're trying to be adults about the whole situation and not sugarcoat it. What good would that do? I'm fairly new here, but I don't think this is a cheerleading board, or a "party propaganda" forum!

+1! Amen!
But you still have to bear in mind that this is a "Florida State game Post game thread." I guess somebody should start a "state of the program" thread for people who want to examine the "whole situation," because I think it definitely merits some examination. Socrates said the unexamined life is not worth living. Maybe the unexamined program is not worth caring about.

Chris Randolph
03-10-2012, 11:45 PM
That's pretty solid proof. I'd love to see what you have on Fermat's Last Theorem, while you're going about proving things.



We lost by 3 points. You don't think Ryan is worth four points to Duke's team?

How else is FSU supposed to prove they are a better team, besides the obvious of winning all 3 matchups? It's ok to admit if another team is better. If you play a team 3 times and win 2 of them, seems to me that means you are better

I never said anything about what Ryan's worth would have been. Based on the 2 previous games against FSU Ryan would have scored around 11-12. But using the same basis, Andre should have scored 18 today and he got 0. Yes, Ryan makes a difference but you can't say "he gets at least 4 and we win by 1." There are way too many other factors involved based on Ryan playing

uh_no
03-10-2012, 11:58 PM
How else is FSU supposed to prove they are a better team, besides the obvious of winning all 3 matchups? It's ok to admit if another team is better. If you play a team 3 times and win 2 of them, seems to me that means you are better


They won one on a last second 3, and one with one of our key pieces out. All the games were reasonably close. If that doesn't scream "evenly matched" i don't know what does. SO our head to head meetings were pretty much a wash. You go to other things. We had a better record against common opponents. That indicates to me that we are a better team since we can win against a larger variety of opponents.

We all know there is no actual objective definition of a "better" team....the game is all about matchups....and even a full season doesn't really provide a large enough sample size.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 12:06 AM
Best post of the night....I'd like to know how many times one of big guys set a pick and rolled to basket or posted up and the guard with the ball just looked away and starting dribbling...never seen a K team dribble as much as this one

one more performance like tonight's and the season is over......i am not so sure that these one and done players are an assett to a program like Duke's......Duke runs the same game plan that Coach K played in college, pretty much......i would much rather have a junior or senior giving 110% than a freshman trying to get in the NBA if i was playing Duke basketball..............

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 12:07 AM
They won one on a last second 3, and one with one of our key pieces out. All the games were reasonably close. If that doesn't scream "evenly matched" i don't know what does. SO our head to head meetings were pretty much a wash. You go to other things. We had a better record against common opponents. That indicates to me that we are a better team since we can win against a larger variety of opponents.

We all know there is no actual objective definition of a "better" team....the game is all about matchups....and even a full season doesn't really provide a large enough sample size.

I get the angle you are using to argue but the fact is they won 2 out of 3, regardless of how or who played. I'm just trying to give credit where it is due and FSU has earned the credit. My philosophy on who is a better team when they play multiple times is: who wins more of the games. Once you get into "so and so beat so and so who lost/or beat so and so" you run into a mess that basically disregards winning a national championship.

uh_no
03-11-2012, 12:09 AM
one more performance like tonight's and the season is over......i am not so sure that these one and done players are an assett to a program like Duke's......Duke runs the same game plan that Coach K played in college, pretty much......i would much rather have a junior or senior giving 110% than a freshman trying to get in the NBA if i was playing Duke basketball..............

Did you have that opinion as Austin Rivers' shot sank carolina a month ago? Just curious. There were problems with the team today, but austin rivers wasn't really one of them. We start a senior, three juniors, and a freshman....so i'm not sure exactly what you're criticizing. Austin may even be back to play next year.

DevilYouthCoach
03-11-2012, 12:51 AM
I have also had this thought. I think Quinn has a big upside. If he can get rid of any lingering knee issues and really work in the offseason, I think he will be markedly better next year.

Somewhere along about mid-season Coach K decided to make TT his point guard designate, rather than let Quinn Cook have more playing time. Based on the K quotes that I read after games, I personally think K sees TT as a player in his own mold: tough defender, leader, maximum effort always. And I think that K gives TT an unfortunate pass on offense some of the time to the team's detriment. I watched Quinn Cook decimate TT's team several times in high school, penetrating easily, scoring a bunch, making his teammates like Victor Oladipo (Indiana) and Michael Hopkins (Georgetown) look really good in the bargain. TT is never going to be a scorer or a penetrator -- it's just not his game. And it's not doing TT any favors to try to make him a scorer -- it just exposes his weaknesses. I think Cook is the real thing.

Edouble
03-11-2012, 12:58 AM
Somewhere along about mid-season Coach K decided to make TT his point guard designate, rather than let Quinn Cook have more playing time. Based on the K quotes that I read after games, I personally think K sees TT as a player in his own mold: tough defender, leader, maximum effort always. And I think that K gives TT an unfortunate pass on offense some of the time to the team's detriment. I watched Quinn Cook decimate TT's team several times in high school, penetrating easily, scoring a bunch, making his teammates like Victor Oladipo (Indiana) and Michael Hopkins (Georgetown) look really good in the bargain. TT is never going to be a scorer or a penetrator -- it's just not his game. And it's not doing TT any favors to try to make him a scorer -- it just exposes his weaknesses. I think Cook is the real thing.

Agree. Cook looks great out there. Pure point guard. Comfortable with the ball. His high energy plays almost brought us back today.

Neals384
03-11-2012, 01:02 AM
We start a senior, three juniors, and a freshman....so i'm not sure exactly what you're criticizing. Austin may even be back to play next year.

Two juniors, one soph (Tyler).

Kedsy
03-11-2012, 01:22 AM
This makes no sense whatsoever... Are you saying that a 2nd place in the ACC (with three home losses!) and a potential early exit in the NCAA tournament is "pretty darn good"? For Duke? Really?

What I'm saying is a 27-6 team (29-7 if they lose in the Sweet 16), with 13-3 in the conference and a top 10 finish in the polls is "pretty darn good." For Duke or anybody else. If you think otherwise, there's not too much else for you and I to discuss on this topic.

(and, by the way, we may have had three home losses but we had zero road losses -- you don't think that's impressive?)


Teams have been doubling up on Mason quickly whenever Josh is in the game while staying home on our shooters except for Tyler.

See, I think this is the key. Josh played 21 minutes today and Tyler played 27. FSU (and VPI yesterday) didn't really try to guard either of those guys. If you have five defenders guarding three offensive players, even if those three guys are really good it's going to be difficult to score. When Ryan and Andre (yes, even if he doesn't score) are in the game, opposing defenses have to stay home on everyone, so it's five on five and it's a lot easier to score that way.

tommy
03-11-2012, 01:29 AM
At this point, there's not much to say about this game specifically. At this point, it's all about the big picture. In two games here, Duke chose to go defense over offense without Kelly. In some ways that really seemed to help the defense, but it's hard to tell for sure given that FSU and Va Tech aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. Duke held their own on the glass for both games, and didn't allow great shooting nights from either one, but they only marginally increased their turnover output from what they had been forcing for most of the year. The other thing is that both games were low possession games so the efficiency increase isn't as great as it might seem (In the FSU game, they still gave up about a point per possession). Against a quality offensive team, I'm not sure that this defensive strategy works as well.

The offense was a complete mess in both games. Without Kelly, Duke can't use its spacing to stretch the D. The Plumlees will come out and set screens, but end up with the ball in their hands more than 15 ft from the basket way too much. There is very little that either one will give you from that range, either dribbling, or shooting. Without the spacing, you have to rely on screens and dribbling to get open, but the book is out on Duke's two favorite plays for that, a down screen on the wing, and a hand off up high. Those two plays were shut down completely. Even on simple passes around the perimeter, only Thornton would end up open, which is exactly the way other teams wanted it. Out of 17 3's in two games, about 14 or 15 were wide open (the others were end of shot clock scenarios), but he shot under 25% overall. There's no incentive for the other team to stay honest with those numbers on wide open shots. When you're covered that tightly, you think of two ways to beat it, passing and dribbling, but Duke isn't great at either of those. Duke is 287th in the country at A/FGM, and that rate has actually been worse than average recently. Without the spacing or shooting threats, teams can pack it in, which takes away cutting to the hoop and finesse driving. Whether it's at this level or the next level, the biggest thing Rivers needs to do is add muscle to drive with power. When he get near the rim, his drives usually end with a reverse layup, an underhanded shot, or a floater. His floater isn't at the level of a guy like Nolan Smith, so defenses let him have it. On the other shots, he has a very low release point, which makes it easy to block, or at least alter without fouling, and turns it into a lower percentage shot. Duke gets plently of shots from 8 feet and in, but they are always the lowest percentage shots possible. Even after all of that, everything is still one-on-one for this team against their opponents offense. I still find it baffling that for a team who only has one guy who's great at getting his own shot that they have such a low assist rate. This team has saved themselves all year with spacing, but with Thornton in the game and no Kelly, there are only going to be two three point threats that other teams are afraid of, and Duke's offense will stuggle big time in that scenario.

What I think Duke needs to do to help alleviate this is push the pace. If they're half court offense is struggling as much as it is, the best way to curtail that is to not let the defense get set. That's a lot easier said than done, especially with the sloppy play we've seen, but I think it's the best shot they have against a big team to score points. Against a small team, many of these problems go away, because the Plumlees have proven themselves to be able to dominate small teams, but Duke will struggle with big teams.

While I don't agree with all of your analysis, particularly with respect to Austin Rivers, nonetheless it is thoughtful and well-informed IMO. And I agree with you that it would be great if we could push the pace, as it would provide Rivers with some open-floor opportunities, in which he is pretty much unstoppable. And it would decrease the number of possessions that we have to work so damned hard on just to get a decent shot up at the basket.

The big problem with this prescription is that in order to run, you have to rebound off the defensive board. Mason is a terrific rebounder (when he holds onto the ball, that is), Miles is pretty good too, but that's it. And there's a lot of times that only one Plumlee is in the game, so we really only have one guy who is a strong board man. Hairston doesn't rebound, Dawkins doesn't, and even when healthy, noone would call Ryan a glass-eater. If we have to send four guys to the boards just to secure the ball, how are we supposed to then be out and running?

Kfanarmy
03-11-2012, 01:35 AM
While I don't agree with all of your analysis, particularly with respect to Austin Rivers, nonetheless it is thoughtful and well-informed IMO. And I agree with you that it would be great if we could push the pace, as it would provide Rivers with some open-floor opportunities, in which he is pretty much unstoppable. And it would decrease the number of possessions that we have to work so damned hard on just to get a decent shot up at the basket.

The big problem with this prescription is that in order to run, you have to rebound off the defensive board. Mason is a terrific rebounder (when he holds onto the ball, that is), Miles is pretty good too, but that's it. And there's a lot of times that only one Plumlee is in the game, so we really only have one guy who is a strong board man. Hairston doesn't rebound, Dawkins doesn't, and even when healthy, noone would call Ryan a glass-eater. If we have to send four guys to the boards just to secure the ball, how are we supposed to then be out and running?

passing forward would be an option...but for whatever reason, this version of Duke pretty much only dribbles the ball up the court.

uh_no
03-11-2012, 01:50 AM
Two juniors, one soph (Tyler).

duh! andre doesn't start anymore. not sure what i was thinking there

The point stands that our teams aren't built on one and dones. the core of the team are still guys that will be here for 3-4 years.

Steven43
03-11-2012, 01:54 AM
Looks about right. The way this team's playing now, an early exit wouldn't be a surprise. Since this team's NCAA distance
depends on matchups and 3 point shooting, it's clearly a crap shoot; but the way we're playing now, looks like we will
crap out sooner rather than later.

Yeah, you're probably right in that this team is not going very far. We will be fortunate to make it past the round of 32. When you are primarily a three-point shooting team that is shooting horribly from the 3-point line, you get out-rebounded routinely, you play mediocre defense, your assist numbers are low, your turnovers are high, you don't have a midrange game, your inside scoring is average, and you don't have a reliable point guard, well, that's a recipe for an early exit from the NCAA tournament. These tendencies are not going to suddenly reverse themselves just because it's tournament time.

Greg_Newton
03-11-2012, 01:56 AM
Agree. Cook looks great out there. Pure point guard. Comfortable with the ball. His high energy plays almost brought us back today.

Cook was a great, positive jolt today, but there's a reason he's not playing more; honestly, he's an enormous liability on defense. He just hasn't been able to contain high-level guards off the dribble at even an adequate rate. He made a sneaky play or two today, but that doesn't change the fact that he's really struggled on the defensive end. I think he's still missing some pre-injury quickness.

Papa John
03-11-2012, 06:53 AM
Finally a man of reason and realism. I agree with you that getting to the Sweet 16 would probably be all we can hope for.I just hope that we get by the first weekend..I have some doubts about that. Our ranking in my opinion does not reflect how we realistically are..In my opinion we are not a top 10 team . The only decent teams that we have beaten since Jan are UNC and FSU. You could add UVA if you want.

Priceless... A man of reason and realism because (s)he shares your pessimistic viewpoint?

There have been many well-reasoned perspectives on here in opposition to your "sky has fallen" mentality. Here's a well-reasoned, realistic view of this year in college basketball--every team in the rankings has flaws. We've been absolutely just as deserving as the next guy of our ranking this season.

Kentucky is the closest thing to an "un-flawed" team, but their flaw is youth, which, historically, has faced its greatest test when a team like Kentucky enters the high-pressure, one-and-done world of the NCAA tournament. Based on history, a reasoned individual would predict that it's highly likely that this Kentucky team will not win it all.

Duvall
03-11-2012, 08:03 AM
I get the angle you are using to argue but the fact is they won 2 out of 3, regardless of how or who played. I'm just trying to give credit where it is due and FSU has earned the credit. My philosophy on who is a better team when they play multiple times is: who wins more of the games. Once you get into "so and so beat so and so who lost/or beat so and so" you run into a mess that basically disregards winning a national championship.

So if FSU loses today, you think they should miss the tournament in favor of BC? BC did win "more of the games."

wilko
03-11-2012, 08:57 AM
Agree. Cook looks great out there. Pure point guard. Comfortable with the ball. His high energy plays almost brought us back today.

Cook had a good game. Aside from having his pocket cleanly picked.
There are times where he looks tentative and his body language makes me thing he is worried about his knee. He may be physically healed, but I'm not sure about psychologically.

I think we'll see the real Quinn next year...
He has speed and can score... the D is coming along, but its not 100% ready for prime-time. I'd like to see a higher degree of passing to get the ball in the right spots to the right players at the right time.

bob blue devil
03-11-2012, 09:06 AM
all of the people pointing to this game as evidence we can't make it past the sweet 16 crack me up.

we lost by a hair to a team that will be around a 4 seed in the ncaa tourney in what wasn't a particularly good game for us and in which we were without one of our starters (who's value to our offense by spreading the court is greater than i had appreciated). we're unlikely to play a team as tough as FSU until the sweet 16, so you're basically saying there is no chance we win a game against an fsu caliber opponent, even though yesterday's game was a coin flip.

i'll admit, we're definitely at risk of a second round exit (heck, i'm not even taking 1st round for granted) - we've looked very mediocre of late, struggling to beat just about any tourney caliber team. it's been frustrating and this season to date has had the opposite trajectory of what i'd hoped (i had been under the illusion we'd be out of sorts early in the season, but be putting stuff together by the end).

but we're also at risk of being a final four team - all it would take is us to get hot for 1-2 games. who knows how the match-ups will ultimately break for us. in the past 2 years, the #3 seeds have made the sweet 16 only 3 times (out of 8 possible) and, likewise, the #1 seeds have made the elite 8 only 3 times. assuming we're a #2 seed, we'll probably be a more than 2 point favorite in every game along our final four path except for 1.

slower
03-11-2012, 09:14 AM
Dude, You wrote that whole thing in caps. Wow.

Come on, man. He turned off Caps Lock for that last letter "s". :D

slower
03-11-2012, 09:24 AM
i am not so sure that these one and done players are an assett to a program like Duke's.

Not sure exactly what I can say here without getting banned, but your statement is just ridiculous. Austin Rivers is the best player on this team.

ChicagoHeel
03-11-2012, 09:37 AM
all of the people pointing to this game as evidence we can't make it past the sweet 16 crack me up.

we lost by a hair to a team that will be around a 4 seed in the ncaa tourney in what wasn't a particularly good game for us and in which we were without one of our starters (who's value to our offense by spreading the court is greater than i had appreciated). we're unlikely to play a team as tough as FSU until the sweet 16, so you're basically saying there is no chance we win a game against an fsu caliber opponent, even though yesterday's game was a coin flip.

i'll admit, we're definitely at risk of a second round exit (heck, i'm not even taking 1st round for granted) - we've looked very mediocre of late, struggling to beat just about any tourney caliber team. it's been frustrating and this season to date has had the opposite trajectory of what i'd hoped (i had been under the illusion we'd be out of sorts early in the season, but be putting stuff together by the end).

but we're also at risk of being a final four team - all it would take is us to get hot for 1-2 games. who knows how the match-ups will ultimately break for us. in the past 2 years, the #3 seeds have made the sweet 16 only 3 times (out of 8 possible) and, likewise, the #1 seeds have made the elite 8 only 3 times. assuming we're a #2 seed, we'll probably be a more than 2 point favorite in every game along our final four path except for 1.

I agree. Your two games against us alone show the wide range of potential outcomes for the tournament. You're both good enough to beat a top team on its home floor and flawed enough to get blown out in your own gym. You will have to get Kelly back and hope that the match-ups work in your favor, but if they do there is no reason to think you can't make a FF. A first-game exit and national championship are the only two outcomes that would surprise me.

Papa John
03-11-2012, 09:40 AM
i am not so sure that these one and done players are an assett to a program like Duke's......Duke runs the same game plan that Coach K played in college, pretty much......i would much rather have a junior or senior giving 110% than a freshman trying to get in the NBA if i was playing Duke basketball..............

Yeah, Corey Maggette, Luol Deng, and Kyrie Irving weren't assets and never played within the framework of the Duke team philosophy ... Dude, get a grip... Austin has been arguably the best player on this team, has absolutely played the role that was asked of him within the team philosophy, and has clearly given 100% all year long (you realize, of course, that it is impossible to give more than 100%, which I point out to satisfy all of the realists and reasoned thinkers out there...) ;-)

Furthermore, we have no idea whether he's even a one-year player yet. He certainly could decide to jump to the NBA, but I've read quite a few pieces speculating that it's just as likely he stays for at least one more year.

CDu
03-11-2012, 10:01 AM
I agree. Your two games against us alone show the wide range of potential outcomes for the tournament. You're both good enough to beat a top team on its home floor and flawed enough to get blown out in your own gym. You will have to get Kelly back and hope that the match-ups work in your favor, but if they do there is no reason to think you can't make a FF. A first-game exit and national championship are the only two outcomes that would surprise me.

Couldn't have said it better myself. If this team can play defense like it did the last two days and hit shots, we'll be a very tough out for even the biggest boys. If we shoot like we did the past three games we could very easily lose in the second round.

I don't see us losing to a 15 seed, and I don't see us winning 5 straight games against top-40 teams. But getting to the Final Four and maybe even making the championship game aren't completely out of the question if we find our shot again and catch the right draw. At the same time, losing to a tough #7 seed wouldn't be a shock, either.

wilko
03-11-2012, 10:08 AM
Not sure exactly what I can say here without getting banned, but your statement is just ridiculous. Austin Rivers is the best player on this team.
Agree!

We'd be much worse off if we didn't have a player that could assume the mantel of Go-to guy!
Could he be a better passer? Could he be a better defender? Could he use better judgement at times? (and who wouldn't?) The answer to all of these is YES!

but so what..
Hes our Guy and I wont kick dirt on him.

davekay1971
03-11-2012, 10:18 AM
Furthermore, we have no idea whether he's even a one-year player yet. He certainly could decide to jump to the NBA, but I've read quite a few pieces speculating that it's just as likely he stays for at least one more year.

Exactly. Austin's comments before coming to Duke were that one-and-done was an option, and that moving to the NBA WHEN HE WAS READY was his goal. But he didn't say he was definitely going after one year.

Going after any of the top recruits opens a team up to the potential of one-and-done or two-and-done players. The only way to avoid it is to recruit kids who you are confident will not be NBA ready after one or two years. I'll leave it up to wiser minds (Coach K, and some of the more basketball knowledgeable people around here) to decide if a program is likely to be more successful year to year going after top-talent kids who are more likely to leave early (a la Calipari), going after lower tier talent with the intent to develop kids over 3-4 years, or trying for a mix. Either way, no matter what your intent in recruiting, ultimately it's up to the kid, and a top recruit may decide to stay, or may not develop as quickly as predicted...while a lower ranked kid may blossom and surprise himself and the coaching staff by being NBA ready after a year or two.

superdave
03-11-2012, 10:28 AM
Somewhere along about mid-season Coach K decided to make TT his point guard designate, rather than let Quinn Cook have more playing time. Based on the K quotes that I read after games, I personally think K sees TT as a player in his own mold: tough defender, leader, maximum effort always. And I think that K gives TT an unfortunate pass on offense some of the time to the team's detriment. I watched Quinn Cook decimate TT's team several times in high school, penetrating easily, scoring a bunch, making his teammates like Victor Oladipo (Indiana) and Michael Hopkins (Georgetown) look really good in the bargain. TT is never going to be a scorer or a penetrator -- it's just not his game. And it's not doing TT any favors to try to make him a scorer -- it just exposes his weaknesses. I think Cook is the real thing.

I agree with you. I like Quinn a lot.

But FSU had a large backcourt and Quinn was giving up 4-5 inches. Until he proves he can guard these bigger guys, putting his quickness and savvy to work, it's going to be hard for him to leap Tyler in the rotation.

CDu
03-11-2012, 10:48 AM
I agree with you. I like Quinn a lot.

But FSU had a large backcourt and Quinn was giving up 4-5 inches. Until he proves he can guard these bigger guys, putting his quickness and savvy to work, it's going to be hard for him to leap Tyler in the rotation.

I think a big key to next year's team's success will be whether or not Cook can make a big jump and establish himself as the PG. Thornton is a terrific teammate and very hard worker defensively. But there appears to be a ceiling on his game offensively. He's currently a liability on offense, and I see him at best becoming a functional off-ball shooter but not a playmaker. Cook just seems much more gifted with the ball in his hands. Whether it is a matter of getting healthy or just getting comfortable and confident, I think we need Cook to establish himself next year as the PG.

Now, I don't mean that Cook should be handed the job. Just that I think our chances of really ascending to greatness will be greatly increased if he can earn that spot. Thornton won't make it easy for Cook. Thornton is going to be tenacious, scrappy, willing to do the little things, and unselfish. So Cook is going to have to really step up to take over that role.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 11:36 AM
Not sure exactly what I can say here without getting banned, but your statement is just ridiculous. Austin Rivers is the best player on this team.

My comments were not aimed exclusively at Rivers. Look what happened last year. We built the offense around Irving and look how that turned out. One injury and once he was healed he was gone. Duke runs an old school game plan, one that relies on the fist Coach K talks about where all 5 players work as one. What I am seeing now is one player taking a much bigger role than 20% in the offense and before they really learn the Duke system to perfection they are gone. That was clearly the case yesterday when Austin failed to pass off to the open man on numerous occassions and instead drove in and turned it over.
Duke won it's last ring with Schirer playing point, and if he is a point guard I am a pilot, and I can't fly a kite. The key was the fist, the 4 others around him that played error free ball and knew how to play their role to perfection. The Duke system is not about having a super star, it's about having five people, the fist, playing as one. I stand completely by my statement, with the system Coach K runs, these one and dones just don't fit in. Before they develop and learn everything they need to know to be a finger on the fist, they are gone.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 11:46 AM
Yeah, Corey Maggette, Luol Deng, and Kyrie Irving weren't assets and never played within the framework of the Duke team philosophy ... Dude, get a grip... Austin has been arguably the best player on this team, has absolutely played the role that was asked of him within the team philosophy, and has clearly given 100% all year long (you realize, of course, that it is impossible to give more than 100%, which I point out to satisfy all of the realists and reasoned thinkers out there...) ;-)

Furthermore, we have no idea whether he's even a one-year player yet. He certainly could decide to jump to the NBA, but I've read quite a few pieces speculating that it's just as likely he stays for at least one more year.

No, I don't see where Irving was an asset at all, much more of a distraction if anything. He got a whole lot more out of Duke than Duke got out of him. He only played about 7 or 8 games in a Duke uniform. The Duke system is not designed for players that come to stay one or even 2 years, it is designed for mature players that completely understand their responsibilities and carry them out to perfection. It requires a grooming and learning process no matter how much talent a player has. That process takes more than just one year for anyone, regardless of talent.

Matches
03-11-2012, 11:49 AM
No, I don't see where Irving was an asset at all, much more of a distraction if anything. He got a whole lot more out of Duke than Duke got out of him.

.. which is, in theory, supposed to be true of everyone who comes through the doors, and is one of the overarching goals of amateur athletics.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 11:52 AM
.. which is, in theory, supposed to be true of everyone who comes through the doors, and is one of the overarching goals of amateur athletics.

College is a 4 year stint, not a 1 year stint.

Matches
03-11-2012, 12:04 PM
College is a 4 year stint, not a 1 year stint.

Nowhere is it written that those 4 years must be consecutive.

Most of our early entry guys have done everything asked of them while they were Duke students, including representing the university well and being good teammates. Nothing I've seen suggests AR is an exception to this.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 12:19 PM
Nowhere is it written that those 4 years must be consecutive.

Most of our early entry guys have done everything asked of them while they were Duke students, including representing the university well and being good teammates. Nothing I've seen suggests AR is an exception to this.

It's all about the fist. As good as Hurley was, it took him 1 1/2 years to become a real, contributing member of the fist.

davekay1971
03-11-2012, 12:23 PM
No, I don't see where Irving was an asset at all, much more of a distraction if anything. He got a whole lot more out of Duke than Duke got out of him. He only played about 7 or 8 games in a Duke uniform. The Duke system is not designed for players that come to stay one or even 2 years, it is designed for mature players that completely understand their responsibilities and carry them out to perfection. It requires a grooming and learning process no matter how much talent a player has. That process takes more than just one year for anyone, regardless of talent.

Please check your facts. Duke has never had a point guard named Shirer. A guy named Jon Scheyer admirably filled that role on our 2010 championship team, however.

Irving played in 11 games, not 7 or 8.

Irving was a tremendous asset in his first 8 games. Duke was probably the best team in the nation during those games. Had he not injured his toe and missed the remainder of the regular season and the ACC tournament, Duke may very well have remained the best team in the nation, and may have won the national championship. Obviously no one knows for sure what would have happened if he'd stayed healthy all season, but certainly Duke's trajectory looked very, very promising before the Butler game. And, obviously, no one could have predicted the toe injury. But, let's say for the sake of argument that Irving stays healthy, Duke stays a dominant offensive force, and wins the national championship last season, then Kyrie goes pro. Would you still object to his contribution as a 1 and done? Or would a 5th national championship have made it worthwhile?

As I noted in an earlier post, unless a kid announces that, no matter what, he's staying three or four years, or, on the other hand, announces that, no matter what, he's leaving after one year, a coach has to decide if he's going to recruit the kind of talent that has the potential to leave early. Do we recruit those top 10 guys? Or do we leave them alone in favor of less talented guys who are more unlikely to be ready to leave early? If we recruit very highly talented players, or players develop quickly into NBA talent, how do we keep them for four years? As long as you recruit top tier talent, you have the risk of that talent going pro early.

I, for one, don't believe kids are obliged to "give" Duke any guarantee. Kids who are NBA level talent need to make the best decision, for themselves, regarding their career. For a kid like Irving, a projected number 1 draft after his freshman year, it's hard to argue that going to the NBA was anything other than a sensible career move. I'd love to have him at Duke for four years, but that simply doesn't make much sense for his career.

Similarly, if, say, Quinn Cook suddenly explodes next year and plays his way to being a top 3 lottery pick, he may unexpectedly be gone after 2 years of college ball. IMHO, only a very selfish Duke fan would deny or begrudge him that opportunity.

One more thought on this: Back in 1990, a guy named Grant Hill arrived on Duke's campus. Grant was exceedingly talented, and a very highly regarded recruit. He had the physical gifts and the game to probably go as a lottery pick after his first year, but he stayed at Duke for 4 years and contributed, obviously, to 2 national championships and appearance in a 3rd national championship game. Grant's family situation, like Rivers', and like Irving's, did not dictate early entry to provide due to economic realities. Like Rivers and Irving, Grant was an excellent high school student. Like Rivers and Austin, he was a perfect fit for the University. But times have changed. Would Grant, if he had come to Duke in 2012, have stayed for four years? Hard to say. Very likely, in being recruited he would not have made any guarantee one way or another. Should K recruit Grant Hill circa 2012, with family background, academics, and NBA potential all similar to Rivers and Irving?

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 12:27 PM
So if FSU loses today, you think they should miss the tournament in favor of BC? BC did win "more of the games."

You obviously did not read my post very well. I said when teams play "multiple times" in a season. BC/FSU played once. Yes, BC won. Off nights/flukes happen. They have happened to Duke many of times over the last few years

Papa John
03-11-2012, 12:29 PM
No, I don't see where Irving was an asset at all, much more of a distraction if anything. He got a whole lot more out of Duke than Duke got out of him. He only played about 7 or 8 games in a Duke uniform. The Duke system is not designed for players that come to stay one or even 2 years, it is designed for mature players that completely understand their responsibilities and carry them out to perfection. It requires a grooming and learning process no matter how much talent a player has. That process takes more than just one year for anyone, regardless of talent.

Oh, I see... So your beef is with Kyrie, a kid who was a star on our team at the beginning of last season (an equal among two highly decorated senior leaders, mind you) and who, unfortunately and through no fault of his own, went down to injury and had to watch from the sidelines... Glad I'm clear on that now, and on the fact that you conveniently chose to ignore the other cited examples of one-and-doners on the list, and the major contributions they all made to their iterations of Duke basketball. That and your shallow interpretation of "the Duke system" tells me that this is a conversation not really worth engaging in...

slower
03-11-2012, 12:29 PM
No, I don't see where Irving was an asset at all, much more of a distraction if anything. He got a whole lot more out of Duke than Duke got out of him. He only played about 7 or 8 games in a Duke uniform. The Duke system is not designed for players that come to stay one or even 2 years, it is designed for mature players that completely understand their responsibilities and carry them out to perfection. It requires a grooming and learning process no matter how much talent a player has. That process takes more than just one year for anyone, regardless of talent.

Do you even WATCH basketball?

stixof96
03-11-2012, 12:31 PM
Please check your facts. Duke has never had a point guard named Shirer. A guy named Jon Scheyer admirably filled that role on our 2010 championship team, however.

Irving played in 11 games, not 7 or 8.

Irving was a tremendous asset in his first 8 games. Duke was probably the best team in the nation during those games. Had he not injured his toe and missed the remainder of the regular season and the ACC tournament, Duke may very well have remained the best team in the nation, and may have won the national championship. Obviously no one knows for sure what would have happened if he'd stayed healthy all season, but certainly Duke's trajectory looked very, very promising before the Butler game. And, obviously, no one could have predicted the toe injury. But, let's say for the sake of argument that Irving stays healthy, Duke stays a dominant offensive force, and wins the national championship last season, then Kyrie goes pro. Would you still object to his contribution as a 1 and done? Or would a 5th national championship have made it worthwhile?

As I noted in an earlier post, unless a kid announces that, no matter what, he's staying three or four years, or, on the other hand, announces that, no matter what, he's leaving after one year, a coach has to decide if he's going to recruit the kind of talent that has the potential to leave early. Do we recruit those top 10 guys? Or do we leave them alone in favor of less talented guys who are more unlikely to be ready to leave early? If we recruit very highly talented players, or players develop quickly into NBA talent, how do we keep them for four years? As long as you recruit top tier talent, you have the risk of that talent going pro early.

I, for one, don't believe kids are obliged to "give" Duke any guarantee. Kids who are NBA level talent need to make the best decision, for themselves, regarding their career. For a kid like Irving, a projected number 1 draft after his freshman year, it's hard to argue that going to the NBA was anything other than a sensible career move. I'd love to have him at Duke for four years, but that simply doesn't make much sense for his career.

Similarly, if, say, Quinn Cook suddenly explodes next year and plays his way to being a top 3 lottery pick, he may unexpectedly be gone after 2 years of college ball. IMHO, only a very selfish Duke fan would deny or begrudge him that opportunity.

Well, maybe I am a selfish Duke fan, one of those old guys who believe the name on the front of the jersey is much more inportant than the name on the back. I can tell you this and you can carry it to the bank. If Duke continues to bring in these kids who only want to use Duke for the television exposure and to use Duke to promote their own NBA careers, the future of Duke basketball will not be pretty. I say if your committment is first to yourself and your profiting from playing basketball, go somewhere else, I don't care how good you are.

rsvman
03-11-2012, 12:34 PM
How else is FSU supposed to prove they are a better team, besides the obvious of winning all 3 matchups? It's ok to admit if another team is better. If you play a team 3 times and win 2 of them, seems to me that means you are better



I hear what you're saying, but I don't think it's particular rational given the three games we played against them. Do you remember the first game? Up by 9 near the end of the first half, Austin seemingly hits a long three to put us up 12, but then the officials rule that it hit something above the basket. Not sure if it did or not, but we don't get the points. Then we go down to the other end and play absolutely great defense, leading to a ridiculous prayer shot at the buzzer that just happened to bank in off the glass. A shot that couldn't be hit again in 10 tries, maybe not in 20. But it went in, making it a six-point cushion at the break. Coulda/shoulda/woulda been 12, but it was 6. And even after that, it required a last-second three at the buzzer for Florida State to win that game.

Yesterday, we played them almost even despite not having Ryan Kelly on the floor.

Those are our two losses. But you'll go ahead and say that based on that, they're "obviously" a better team?


OK. Whatever.

They're quite good, but I'm not sure it's obvious that they're better based on those three meetings, and if we met again and had all of our players suit up I'd give us pretty good odds.

ncexnyc
03-11-2012, 12:35 PM
Couldn't have said it better myself. If this team can play defense like it did the last two days and hit shots, we'll be a very tough out for even the biggest boys. If we shoot like we did the past three games we could very easily lose in the second round.

I don't see us losing to a 15 seed, and I don't see us winning 5 straight games against top-40 teams. But getting to the Final Four and maybe even making the championship game aren't completely out of the question if we find our shot again and catch the right draw. At the same time, losing to a tough #7 seed wouldn't be a shock, either.
Well here's the bright side about this team. The collective "WE" don't have to find our shot. With the number of players we've got that have gone for twenty a night, it could be any number of players, which is why I still like our chances, especially if the D we've seen of late is for real. When's the next full moon? That's probably the next time we see a huge game from Dre:D

Papa John
03-11-2012, 12:37 PM
Well, maybe I am a selfish Duke fan, one of those old guys who believe the name on the front of the jersey is much more inportant than the name on the back. I can tell you this and you can carry it to the bank. If Duke continues to bring in these kids who only want to use Duke for the television exposure and to use Duke to promote their own NBA careers, the future of Duke basketball will not be pretty. I say if your committment is first to yourself and your profiting from playing basketball, go somewhere else, I don't care how good you are.

I question how old you actually are, and how long you've been a fan of Duke basketball, based on you interpretation of "the Duke system." That aside, please tell me... Who are the kids you describe in the italicized section above?

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 12:47 PM
I hear what you're saying, but I don't think it's particular rational given the three games we played against them. Do you remember the first game? Up by 9 near the end of the first half, Austin seemingly hits a long three to put us up 12, but then the officials rule that it hit something above the basket. Not sure if it did or not, but we don't get the points. Then we go down to the other end and play absolutely great defense, leading to a ridiculous prayer shot at the buzzer that just happened to bank in off the glass. A shot that couldn't be hit again in 10 tries, maybe not in 20. But it went in, making it a six-point cushion at the break. Coulda/shoulda/woulda been 12, but it was 6. And even after that, it required a last-second three at the buzzer for Florida State to win that game.

Yesterday, we played them almost even despite not having Ryan Kelly on the floor.

Those are our two losses. But you'll go ahead and say that based on that, they're "obviously" a better team?


OK. Whatever.

They're quite good, but I'm not sure it's obvious that they're better based on those three meetings, and if we met again and had all of our players suit up I'd give us pretty good odds.

Why does the NBA play a "series?" Because they know one game can be a fluke. But over a series of games, the better team usually/almost always prevails.

I never said they are "obviously" a better team. I would say it is very close, a toss up almost, but they won 2 out of 3 this year so I credit them as a better team than us. A few posters have made note (or excuse) of the matchups: "they hit a 1 and 10 chance shot" or "hit a buzzer beater" or "we didn't have Ryan"...... All of those are true but the fact is they found a way to win the games

OldPhiKap
03-11-2012, 12:54 PM
FSU is an outstanding team with a lot of veteran players. Congratulations on a hard-fought win.

Not much more to say, really. I hope that Ryan is good to go this week, let's hope for a good draw and see what happens.

Go Duke!

JohnGalt
03-11-2012, 01:04 PM
Well, maybe I am a selfish Duke fan, one of those old guys who believe the name on the front of the jersey is much more inportant than the name on the back. I can tell you this and you can carry it to the bank. If Duke continues to bring in these kids who only want to use Duke for the television exposure and to use Duke to promote their own NBA careers, the future of Duke basketball will not be pretty. I say if your committment is first to yourself and your profiting from playing basketball, go somewhere else, I don't care how good you are.

And I would say that - yes - you are a selfish Duke fan.

Why do so many people find it offensive for others to profit from sport?

Back on topic...

Double digit first half turnovers doesn't generally win many ACCT games. Especially with one of our most versatile players hurt. I thought we did well to fight back and have a shot at sending it to OT. If nothing else, this team doesn't quit.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 01:04 PM
I question how old you actually are, and how long you've been a fan of Duke basketball, based on you interpretation of "the Duke system." That aside, please tell me... Who are the kids you describe in the italicized section above?

I am 53 years old and have been a huge Duke fan for over 30 years now. What I have seen the last 2 years i do not like at all. Just my opinion, and you certainly have every right to disagree.

Starter
03-11-2012, 01:09 PM
It would blow my mind to think that anyone legitimately doesn't see the value of having the first pick in the NBA Draft wearing your team's uniform in terms of perception and future recruiting. Speaks for itself, I would think.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 01:20 PM
It would blow my mind to think that anyone legitimately doesn't see the value of having the first pick in the NBA Draft wearing your team's uniform in terms of perception and future recruiting. Speaks for itself, I would think.
Well, if you were one of the other kids on the team that is here to give 110% for 4 or 5 years and you see this kid who is just passing through getting all of the attention and playing time you might have a different opinion. Our ability to defeat great teams when they have been playing their A game over the last 2 years has not been good at all. My opinion is that any kid that comes to Duke to play just 1 or 2 years brings liabilities as well as assets to this " fist " system. Just my opinion, that's all.

Starter
03-11-2012, 01:26 PM
Well, if you were one of the other kids on the team that is here to give 110% for 4 or 5 years and you see this kid who is just passing through getting all of the attention and playing time you might have a different opinion.

Nope.

Kedsy
03-11-2012, 01:36 PM
You obviously did not read my post very well. I said when teams play "multiple times" in a season. BC/FSU played once. Yes, BC won. Off nights/flukes happen. They have happened to Duke many of times over the last few years

I remember 1990, when UNC was unranked, had the 4th seed in the ACC tournament and lost in the first round, got an 8th seed in the NCAA tournament and lost in the 2nd round. Duke was ranked in the top 10 most of the season, as high as #3 in the country but never lower than 15th, finished 2nd in the ACC, got a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament and made it to the Final Four before coming up short in the title game. Yet UNC beat Duke twice (2-0 record against us). Was UNC the better team that year?

I'm sure there are many, many other examples, every season, where a lesser team managed to beat a better team twice.

Gthoma2a
03-11-2012, 01:37 PM
FSU is making me enjoy this. We were without Kelly, so I don't look at the loss as a legit gauge, but this has to be hurting UNC fans watching this. FSU is ridiculous on defense and has a lead. They can also hit some shots.

Kewlswim
03-11-2012, 01:40 PM
It would blow my mind to think that anyone legitimately doesn't see the value of having the first pick in the NBA Draft wearing your team's uniform in terms of perception and future recruiting. Speaks for itself, I would think.

Hi,

I also think that the way the training staff and coaches as well as most Duke fans treated Kyrie engenders a ton of street cred for the program. Kids can't say that Coach K cared more about himself than Kyrie (well they can, but it would be ludicrous), what the world saw was a program that loved its fallen leader (sorry Nolan and Kyle, he was) and provided him with much encouragement when he left to be the NUMBER ONE pick in the lottery. I think Kyrie is doing more for Duke right now than anyone could have hoped for. What a stud who refers to Coach K as, "[H]is coach."

Kyrie is a great kid and ambassador for Duke and his being able to play a smattering of games for the program is through no fault of his own. I wish every kid who played for Coach K had the heart Kyrie does. How anyone seriously ever says anything bad about the guy and claims to be a Duke fan is beyond me.

GO DUKE!

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 02:29 PM
I remember 1990, when UNC was unranked, had the 4th seed in the ACC tournament and lost in the first round, got an 8th seed in the NCAA tournament and lost in the 2nd round. Duke was ranked in the top 10 most of the season, as high as #3 in the country but never lower than 15th, finished 2nd in the ACC, got a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament and made it to the Final Four before coming up short in the title game. Yet UNC beat Duke twice (2-0 record against us). Was UNC the better team that year?

I'm sure there are many, many other examples, every season, where a lesser team managed to beat a better team twice.

Your evidence proves that my way of thinking is totally wrong. I'm an idiot to think that when two teams are almost evenly matched-up, that the team who wins more of the games against the other is not a tad bit better.

greybeard
03-11-2012, 02:35 PM
.

This makes no sense whatsoever... Are you saying that a 2nd place in the ACC (with three home losses!) and a potential early exit in the NCAA tournament is "pretty darn good"? For Duke? Really?

I can't understand people who blame others for being "negative", when many of us are just objective and try not to let our feelings for the team get in the way of analysis. In other words, we're trying to be adults about the whole situation and not sugarcoat it. What good would that do? I'm fairly new here, but I don't think this is a cheerleading board, or a "party propaganda" forum!

No one is calling this team one of Duke's very best, but "pretty darn good," and you dispute that? Let's have a look. First off, if NC scores one less basket, if one foul (for example, a charge call in Zeller's favor in the first half that should have gone the other way because Zeller walked straight into the guy), and one play happens differently in the Duke FS game, we are talking about Duke getting a one seed in the Dance, and having a 50-50 shot of winning the ACC tournament. As it is, during the regular season they went into the last game playing for the regular season championship but got blown out by a team that has 5 first round draft picks or more on its roster and was playing the best ball of anyone in the Country. They also had a chip on it's shoulder coming into that game. The other home losses were by 7, 4, and 3 points, and the 7 point loss to St. John's could only be considered one of those bad games that every team suffers (check out UNC if you want to see examples). The losses to the U and to FSU, in case you have not been watching, please do--these teams might well go deep in the Dance, I'd have them that way in my bracket if I was a betting man, but I'm not.

Aainst this, how many top 10 teams did they beat--4, two of whom, Kansas and UNC were rated in the top 5 all season and are legit picks to win it all, and the other two are from the conference that everyone said was the strongest in the country.

And, by the way, home court advantage all over the country and in most sports just ai't what it used to be. In college basketball, before league play begins, Duke and other top teams play the toughest part of their schedules, none of it at home. "The times they are a changin." And, while while all the heads are talkin about parody, you seem to ignore it, perhaps because you buy the head's simplistic explanation--kids leaving early which makes no sense. Before the one and done rule, the kids who leave early never came, so that cannot explain the parity. What I think explains the parity is a combination of several things that begins with dollars, dolloars from cable, dollars from shoe companies, dollars that have built basketball from AAU on up to a huge industry. Where there is unspoken parity is in the coaching ranks; guys can really, really coach em up, guys at no name schools all over the place. And, with dollars, and the emphasis on high end free clinics, and then shoe sponsored AAU teams that travel all over the place, that feed money around to identify and then develop talent, guys with potential, we, or at least I, am noticing a large number of impressive ballplayers whose names I do not know.

Now, let's take a quick look at this roster. Rivers and Mason are sure pros. If anyone says that they KNOW that Ryan, Dre and Curry will not play in the NBA, I'd like to see their money. Let's break it down by position. Considering Dre to be a two, Duke has three guards who are terrific three ball shooters, one of whom gets to the basket and finishes and'or draws fouls as well as anyone in the country, if not better. Curry is a terrific shooter, and gets to the basket and finishes very, very well--if he had their size, you might even be talking about Curry's being at least within shooting range (cute huh) of the likes of JWill, JJ, and even Johnny D. Dreis an enigma who might end up being a better pro than college plyer. When hot, he is JJ in a superior 6'64" body, and he has been hot often enough and impressively enough that he might well leave early, even to play overseas to get his seasoning there. If Duke had fewer guards, and Dre played alongside a healthy Cooke, tell you what: you use your imagination, but I'm thinking he might well have been a star in the league as we speak. Then there is Tyler, who I am sure no one in the Western world wants to be matched against. This kid gets you the ball when the other team has it, when he goes for loose balls he usually gets them and the guys on the other team, whether they get it or not, much of the time wish after-the-fact they hadn't tried. K really, really likes this guy, has had him lead the team at the most significant times all season, and when he is only expected to take a few key shots or take it to the basket at crucial times to keep a defense honest has delivered admirably. Think Tommy Amakar here in a much stronger body but without Amakar's amazing quickness.

The real issue with the backcourt, a significant one in my view, is their lack of size which impacts on their ability to be formidable on defense. However, as a team, Duke has shown a pretty impressive ability to get back into games from behind and win them, which you don't do if you can't guard people. Duke's threeman rotation up front does a pretty darn good job, and was bettter than that before Mason started to wear down somewhere around the middle of the season (he seemed to lose some of his quickness and timing on help-outs, lift and quickness on the defensive boards and as an off-the-ball shot blocker). Miles was and is pretty darn formidable as an on-the-ball defender and defensive rebounder and Ryan is sneaky effective in those categories and as a shot blocker/disturber. You haven't seen Duke play what is referred to as "lock down" defense for several years now, which I think is nice because, except for this ankle sprain, the number of broken 5th metatarsals and such have all but disappeared.

So, here's the deal, right now you cannot say that this team is not in the same league as any of the other Duke teams preceeding the 2010 Champions who were 1 or 2 seeds and went out early, first or second round in the dance. You can't say that either based upon performance or talent. Maybe you can say that this team wasn't exactly on par with one or two of those tems, but nobody actually did, all anyone same that this team was and is "pretty darn good." In fact, I'm not a beating man, but if I were, I would not bet the ranch that this team doesn't end up making a name for itself in this tournament by getting a step or two farther than those other Duke teams had.

Final comments. It seems to me that this team two issues, one of which I think has basically resolved itself and the other, well, it is what it is. Let's take the other. It seemed obvious to me from the start of the season, from when it was first announced that Marshall had been red shirted, that this team was two thin, a man too thin, with respect to inside players. Duke needed more than three inside players, even though I thought that Ryan did remarkably well playing the role of a big on the defensive end especially. Mason just was asked to do too many things for two long as a slightly undersized center, usually playing against talent that had an inch or two on him, that is a team, that had at least two players who fit that category. The margin for error was just too small--foul trouble, an off night, or tired legs, mental fatigue, which once it sets in during the meat of the season is very hard to shake. So, especially without a couple or three 6'4" to 6'5" guards like Scheyer or G or Nelson (I know he's probably a half inch out of range) whose length on defense closes passing lanes (long arms can do that) and makes shooting over them problematic (often requires an adjustment of the release point or a trajectory on a shot), you really have to take your hate off to Mason, Miles, and Ryan. I think that they really, really could have benefited if they had a legit big to add to the regular rotation. I said that going in, and I still say it. But, darn, this team made it work with three, and when Ryan went down, Hairston stepped up and those guys collectively comported themselves pretty darn well--just ask VT and FSU.

The thing that troubled me the most up through about the middle of the season was what I called the lack of a coherent identity on offense (K put it differently, something about not seeing this team grow the way he expects his teams to grow). And, then, it seemed to become clear, K seemed to settle on growth, settle on a cohessive identity that was built upon putting organiztion that worked around the organized chaos known as Austin Rivers. Curry fit well as the second free wheeler in this unusal way of breaking defenses down, and K foujnd a way of having the rest of the offense be like jazz musicians riffing off the leads in a small ensemble. Ryan was the drummer who could control and direct the Chaos, through whom K could call sets or set plays, who could alter the beat if you will. And, when K needed a different, more controlled attack, particularly one that involved Mason, he did not need to stand up and hold up a clenched fist, he sent the message differently--he sent the fist out onto the court. Listen, there were many times when Tyler was sent on the court primarily for defense and to rift off the chaos, and then there were some other times, and everyone seemed to know when they were, that Tyler was sent out to take over the reigns. K, it seems to me, has shown amazing creativity and diversity in chosing playing styles in recent years that I thought had something to do with his experience heading the Olympic program over a collection of summers. This season the soldier became like James Jamerson, who set the tone on the fly the collection of jazz musicians that were the Motown Sound, the Funk Brothers (watch, Standing in the Shadows of Motown).

Now, there have not been but two clusters of players during the K era at Duke that comprised the core of some great teams: Laetner, Grant, Hurley and different very talented guys who ran with them, JWill, Dunley, Boozer, Brand, Battier, and some of the guys that ran with them. This group is not on a par with them. They are, however, "pretty darn good," as compared with K's other teams, including the JJ-Shelden one that seemed so promising. They also are "pretty darn good" when measured against the current era of Division one basketball, in which the number of teams that can really, really play has, in my mind, expanded greatly in recent years, not because of delution due to loses to the pros, but because there are more, and more players who can really play and more and more coaches that can really coach.

No body is excusing nothing here, johnpope: these guys have been ranked in the top 10 all year, often in the top 3, ended ranked 6th, beat four top ten teams, were in it to the end for the regular season championship, can within a whisker of making the tournament finals without a key big in an undermanned front court, and are good enough to beat any team, teams as good as UNC and Kansas, on any given night. I think that your measuring stick here is a little out of whack.

Mcluhan
03-11-2012, 03:02 PM
This is on the money. With our redshirts, plus one or possibly more recruits, we will be fine. Very unlikely that Mason will leave, uncertain about Austin. So, we lose Miles, maybe Austin, but we gain a lot. Better next year. I know that Duke is for superstars (well, some fans think so), but we have had a pretty successful year so far (by any but Duke standards). We will not be playing in the NIT, and will have a very good seed in the big tournament. Whats to hate?

I love this team, I've enjoyed this year.

But it is fundamentally a bunch of parts that don't quite fit together as a whole. Less than the sum of its parts.

And the situation isn't likely to be improved next year. None of our log-jammed perimeter will be moving on (except perhaps Austin, and that would be bad), and so we're looking at another year of substandard perimeter defense, and a bunch of guards who all have comparable cases for playing time. Add Gbinije, Murphy, and Sulaimon, and it looks like we might once again be incredibly deep, but too even talent-wise. I'm not sure it ever became clear this year just who we should be giving minutes to.

I do think that Thornton will develop a good shot over the next two years, a la Wojo, and that will allow him to definitively claim a spot in the lineup.

OK, enough about next year, let's make a deep run this year! Shoot, Andre, shoot!

Saratoga2
03-11-2012, 04:01 PM
Two things before I ask my question - (1) this is not a bashing thing, I love Mason to death and (2) if this has been asked somewhere already, I apologize.

Is it me, or does it seem that Mason has checked out mentally for stretches of games the last few weeks. A couple times today, he just looked like he wasn't mentally into things and then he plays well for a stretch. Mostly I notice this of the defensive end. Several times today, he missed help assignments that are pretty simple.

Just curious if I was the only one sensing this.

Mason often plays at a very high level but for some reason regresses at times, liked its a mental thing. An example of that is when he hedged 30 feet from the basket with about 5 seconds on the FSU shot clock and was so aggressive he drew the foul and essentially changed the game dynamic in FSU's favor. He has been doing the same thing all year and just it doesn't seem he is aware of the game situation at times. I realize it is easier to criticize from the arm chair, but those kind of lapses can cost the team dearly.

tele
03-11-2012, 04:05 PM
No one is calling this team one of Duke's very best, but "pretty darn good," and you dispute that? Let's have a look. First off, if NC scores one less basket, if one foul (for example, a charge call in Zeller's favor in the first half that should have gone the other way because Zeller walked straight into the guy), and one play happens differently in the Duke FS game, we are talking about Duke getting a one seed in the Dance, and having a 50-50 shot of winning the ACC tournament. As it is, during the regular season they went into the last game playing for the regular season championship but got blown out by a team that has 5 first round draft picks or more on its roster and was playing the best ball of anyone in the Country. They also had a chip on it's shoulder coming into that game. The other home losses were by 7, 4, and 3 points, and the 7 point loss to St. John's could only be considered one of those bad games that every team suffers (check out UNC if you want to see examples). The losses to the U and to FSU, in case you have not been watching, please do--these teams might well go deep in the Dance, I'd have them that way in my bracket if I was a betting man, but I'm not.

Aainst this, how many top 10 teams did they beat--4, two of whom, Kansas and UNC were rated in the top 5 all season and are legit picks to win it all, and the other two are from the conference that everyone said was the strongest in the country.

And, by the way, home court advantage all over the country and in most sports just ai't what it used to be. In college basketball, before league play begins, Duke and other top teams play the toughest part of their schedules, none of it at home. "The times they are a changin." And, while while all the heads are talkin about parody, you seem to ignore it, perhaps because you buy the head's simplistic explanation--kids leaving early which makes no sense. Before the one and done rule, the kids who leave early never came, so that cannot explain the parity. What I think explains the parity is a combination of several things that begins with dollars, dolloars from cable, dollars from shoe companies, dollars that have built basketball from AAU on up to a huge industry. Where there is unspoken parity is in the coaching ranks; guys can really, really coach em up, guys at no name schools all over the place. And, with dollars, and the emphasis on high end free clinics, and then shoe sponsored AAU teams that travel all over the place, that feed money around to identify and then develop talent, guys with potential, we, or at least I, am noticing a large number of impressive ballplayers whose names I do not know.

Now, let's take a quick look at this roster. Rivers and Mason are sure pros. If anyone says that they KNOW that Ryan, Dre and Curry will not play in the NBA, I'd like to see their money. Let's break it down by position. Considering Dre to be a two, Duke has three guards who are terrific three ball shooters, one of whom gets to the basket and finishes and'or draws fouls as well as anyone in the country, if not better. Curry is a terrific shooter, and gets to the basket and finishes very, very well--if he had their size, you might even be talking about Curry's being at least within shooting range (cute huh) of the likes of JWill, JJ, and even Johnny D. Dreis an enigma who might end up being a better pro than college plyer. When hot, he is JJ in a superior 6'64" body, and he has been hot often enough and impressively enough that he might well leave early, even to play overseas to get his seasoning there. If Duke had fewer guards, and Dre played alongside a healthy Cooke, tell you what: you use your imagination, but I'm thinking he might well have been a star in the league as we speak. Then there is Tyler, who I am sure no one in the Western world wants to be matched against. This kid gets you the ball when the other team has it, when he goes for loose balls he usually gets them and the guys on the other team, whether they get it or not, much of the time wish after-the-fact they hadn't tried. K really, really likes this guy, has had him lead the team at the most significant times all season, and when he is only expected to take a few key shots or take it to the basket at crucial times to keep a defense honest has delivered admirably. Think Tommy Amakar here in a much stronger body but without Amakar's amazing quickness.

The real issue with the backcourt, a significant one in my view, is their lack of size which impacts on their ability to be formidable on defense. However, as a team, Duke has shown a pretty impressive ability to get back into games from behind and win them, which you don't do if you can't guard people. Duke's threeman rotation up front does a pretty darn good job, and was bettter than that before Mason started to wear down somewhere around the middle of the season (he seemed to lose some of his quickness and timing on help-outs, lift and quickness on the defensive boards and as an off-the-ball shot blocker). Miles was and is pretty darn formidable as an on-the-ball defender and defensive rebounder and Ryan is sneaky effective in those categories and as a shot blocker/disturber. You haven't seen Duke play what is referred to as "lock down" defense for several years now, which I think is nice because, except for this ankle sprain, the number of broken 5th metatarsals and such have all but disappeared.

So, here's the deal, right now you cannot say that this team is not in the same league as any of the other Duke teams preceeding the 2010 Champions who were 1 or 2 seeds and went out early, first or second round in the dance. You can't say that either based upon performance or talent. Maybe you can say that this team wasn't exactly on par with one or two of those tems, but nobody actually did, all anyone same that this team was and is "pretty darn good." In fact, I'm not a beating man, but if I were, I would not bet the ranch that this team doesn't end up making a name for itself in this tournament by getting a step or two farther than those other Duke teams had.

Final comments. It seems to me that this team two issues, one of which I think has basically resolved itself and the other, well, it is what it is. Let's take the other. It seemed obvious to me from the start of the season, from when it was first announced that Marshall had been red shirted, that this team was two thin, a man too thin, with respect to inside players. Duke needed more than three inside players, even though I thought that Ryan did remarkably well playing the role of a big on the defensive end especially. Mason just was asked to do too many things for two long as a slightly undersized center, usually playing against talent that had an inch or two on him, that is a team, that had at least two players who fit that category. The margin for error was just too small--foul trouble, an off night, or tired legs, mental fatigue, which once it sets in during the meat of the season is very hard to shake. So, especially without a couple or three 6'4" to 6'5" guards like Scheyer or G or Nelson (I know he's probably a half inch out of range) whose length on defense closes passing lanes (long arms can do that) and makes shooting over them problematic (often requires an adjustment of the release point or a trajectory on a shot), you really have to take your hate off to Mason, Miles, and Ryan. I think that they really, really could have benefited if they had a legit big to add to the regular rotation. I said that going in, and I still say it. But, darn, this team made it work with three, and when Ryan went down, Hairston stepped up and those guys collectively comported themselves pretty darn well--just ask VT and FSU.

The thing that troubled me the most up through about the middle of the season was what I called the lack of a coherent identity on offense (K put it differently, something about not seeing this team grow the way he expects his teams to grow). And, then, it seemed to become clear, K seemed to settle on growth, settle on a cohessive identity that was built upon putting organiztion that worked around the organized chaos known as Austin Rivers. Curry fit well as the second free wheeler in this unusal way of breaking defenses down, and K foujnd a way of having the rest of the offense be like jazz musicians riffing off the leads in a small ensemble. Ryan was the drummer who could control and direct the Chaos, through whom K could call sets or set plays, who could alter the beat if you will. And, when K needed a different, more controlled attack, particularly one that involved Mason, he did not need to stand up and hold up a clenched fist, he sent the message differently--he sent the fist out onto the court. Listen, there were many times when Tyler was sent on the court primarily for defense and to rift off the chaos, and then there were some other times, and everyone seemed to know when they were, that Tyler was sent out to take over the reigns. K, it seems to me, has shown amazing creativity and diversity in chosing playing styles in recent years that I thought had something to do with his experience heading the Olympic program over a collection of summers. This season the soldier became like James Jamerson, who set the tone on the fly the collection of jazz musicians that were the Motown Sound, the Funk Brothers (watch, Standing in the Shadows of Motown).

Now, there have not been but two clusters of players during the K era at Duke that comprised the core of some great teams: Laetner, Grant, Hurley and different very talented guys who ran with them, JWill, Dunley, Boozer, Brand, Battier, and some of the guys that ran with them. This group is not on a par with them. They are, however, "pretty darn good," as compared with K's other teams, including the JJ-Shelden one that seemed so promising. They also are "pretty darn good" when measured against the current era of Division one basketball, in which the number of teams that can really, really play has, in my mind, expanded greatly in recent years, not because of delution due to loses to the pros, but because there are more, and more players who can really play and more and more coaches that can really coach.

No body is excusing nothing here, johnpope: these guys have been ranked in the top 10 all year, often in the top 3, ended ranked 6th, beat four top ten teams, were in it to the end for the regular season championship, can within a whisker of making the tournament finals without a key big in an undermanned front court, and are good enough to beat any team, teams as good as UNC and Kansas, on any given night. I think that your measuring stick here is a little out of whack.

Thanks for the movie recommendation, available on netflix but just as dvd, not streaming.

I also agree this team is pretty good, I've wondered if this might also be the team that finally turns the coach's hair grey. The effort seems to be there now on defense so maybe they can make a run in the tourney, with Kelly back they can cause the other teams matchup problems.

Kedsy
03-11-2012, 04:13 PM
Your evidence proves that my way of thinking is totally wrong. I'm an idiot to think that when two teams are almost evenly matched-up, that the team who wins more of the games against the other is not a tad bit better.

Well, first of all, you didn't say you thought one team was a tad bit better. You said, "FSU is better than Duke, proven by a 2-1 record."

I suppose FSU has also "proven" they are better than UNC? They're 2-0 against the Heels, with one of the wins being a 33 point whupping. My guess, however, is that the selection committee won't agree with you, and that both Duke and UNC get better seeds than Florida State.

Because a 2-0 or 2-1 record doesn't "prove" anything. The sample size is waaaaaaaay too small.

camion
03-11-2012, 04:15 PM
Your evidence proves that my way of thinking is totally wrong. I'm an idiot to think that when two teams are almost evenly matched-up, that the team who wins more of the games against the other is not a tad bit better.

Since Florida State has proven that they are better than Duke (2-1) and UNC (2-0) whom would you pick in the NCAA tournament if FSU played one of them again. Would you expect FSU to win? You may assume that FSU is without the services of Snaer and James for such a hypothetical game and DUKE/UNC is at full strength. Remember it didn't matter to you if Duke or UNC were missing a starter in the ACC tournament.

Or does being the better team only work in the past tense?


I know this is flogging a dead horse, but I have a morbid curiosity.

Kedsy
03-11-2012, 04:21 PM
The other home losses were by 7, 4, and 3 points, and the 7 point loss to St. John's could only be considered one of those bad games that every team suffers (check out UNC if you want to see examples).

We actually beat St. John's by 7. I agree with most of the rest of your comments.

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 04:30 PM
Well, first of all, you didn't say you thought one team was a tad bit better. You said, "FSU is better than Duke, proven by a 2-1 record."

I suppose FSU has also "proven" they are better than UNC? They're 2-0 against the Heels, with one of the wins being a 33 point whupping. My guess, however, is that the selection committee won't agree with you, and that both Duke and UNC get better seeds than Florida State.

Because a 2-0 or 2-1 record doesn't "prove" anything. The sample size is waaaaaaaay too small.

Tad bit better or better, either way, when you have 2 teams that are really close to evenly matched, I would look at their head to head record to decide who is better between those 2 teams.


Since Florida State has proven that they are better than Duke (2-1) and UNC (2-0) whom would you pick in the NCAA tournament if FSU played one of them again. Would you expect FSU to win? You may assume that FSU is without the services of Snaer and James for such a hypothetical game and DUKE/UNC is at full strength. Remember it didn't matter to you if Duke or UNC were missing a starter in the ACC tournament.

Or does being the better team only work in the past tense?


I know this is flogging a dead horse, but I have a morbid curiosity.

This is ridiculous. You are taking away FSU's best player and their best big man. Ya, that is real similar to what Duke/UNC faced (rolling eyes).

camion
03-11-2012, 04:49 PM
Tad bit better or better, either way, when you have 2 teams that are really close to evenly matched, I would look at their head to head record to decide who is better between those 2 teams.



This is ridiculous. You are taking away FSU's best player and their best big man. Ya, that is real similar to what Duke/UNC faced (rolling eyes).

Didn't you say the fact Duke lost Ryan Kelly was irrelevant? If losing one player makes zero difference then losing two players is just 2 x 0 = 0. It shouldn't matter.

Otherwise all you have been saying is that better = "won more games" and it means nothing else. It is non-predictive and only works looking backwards.

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 05:12 PM
Didn't you say the fact Duke lost Ryan Kelly was irrelevant? If losing one player makes zero difference then losing two players is just 2 x 0 = 0. It shouldn't matter.

Otherwise all you have been saying is that better = "won more games" and it means nothing else. It is non-predictive and only works looking backwards.

No I never said that losing Kelly was "irrevelant." As a matter of fact, I said I'm sure he would have made a difference, but not a huge one. And come on with the 2 x 0 = 0 crap. EVERYONE knows that losing one good player as compared to two good players is a big difference, especially when you picked out FSU's best player and best interior player.

Duke and FSU are two fairly evenly matched teams. I don't think anyone would argue otherwise. They were similar in conference record, similar in final ranking after regular season (tbd) and going to be pretty similar in NCAAT seeding (tbd). I just think they are better than us. Seriously, if you asked Leonard Hamilton and his team "are you better than Duke?" based on your guys way of thinking they would have to answer no, knowing that they beat Duke 2 out of 3. Wouldn't they be a bit foolish to not think they are better?

johnpope
03-11-2012, 05:33 PM
No one is calling this team one of Duke's very best, but "pretty darn good," and you dispute that? Let's have a look. First off, if NC scores one less basket, if one foul (for example, a charge call in Zeller's favor in the first half that should have gone the other way because Zeller walked straight into the guy), and one play happens differently in the Duke FS game, we are talking about Duke getting a one seed in the Dance, and having a 50-50 shot of winning the ACC tournament. As it is, during the regular season they went into the last game playing for the regular season championship but got blown out by a team that has 5 first round draft picks or more on its roster and was playing the best ball of anyone in the Country. They also had a chip on it's shoulder coming into that game. The other home losses were by 7, 4, and 3 points, and the 7 point loss to St. John's could only be considered one of those bad games that every team suffers (check out UNC if you want to see examples). The losses to the U and to FSU, in case you have not been watching, please do--these teams might well go deep in the Dance, I'd have them that way in my bracket if I was a betting man, but I'm not.

Aainst this, how many top 10 teams did they beat--4, two of whom, Kansas and UNC were rated in the top 5 all season and are legit picks to win it all, and the other two are from the conference that everyone said was the strongest in the country.

And, by the way, home court advantage all over the country and in most sports just ai't what it used to be. In college basketball, before league play begins, Duke and other top teams play the toughest part of their schedules, none of it at home. "The times they are a changin." And, while while all the heads are talkin about parody, you seem to ignore it, perhaps because you buy the head's simplistic explanation--kids leaving early which makes no sense. Before the one and done rule, the kids who leave early never came, so that cannot explain the parity. What I think explains the parity is a combination of several things that begins with dollars, dolloars from cable, dollars from shoe companies, dollars that have built basketball from AAU on up to a huge industry. Where there is unspoken parity is in the coaching ranks; guys can really, really coach em up, guys at no name schools all over the place. And, with dollars, and the emphasis on high end free clinics, and then shoe sponsored AAU teams that travel all over the place, that feed money around to identify and then develop talent, guys with potential, we, or at least I, am noticing a large number of impressive ballplayers whose names I do not know.

Now, let's take a quick look at this roster. Rivers and Mason are sure pros. If anyone says that they KNOW that Ryan, Dre and Curry will not play in the NBA, I'd like to see their money. Let's break it down by position. Considering Dre to be a two, Duke has three guards who are terrific three ball shooters, one of whom gets to the basket and finishes and'or draws fouls as well as anyone in the country, if not better. Curry is a terrific shooter, and gets to the basket and finishes very, very well--if he had their size, you might even be talking about Curry's being at least within shooting range (cute huh) of the likes of JWill, JJ, and even Johnny D. Dreis an enigma who might end up being a better pro than college plyer. When hot, he is JJ in a superior 6'64" body, and he has been hot often enough and impressively enough that he might well leave early, even to play overseas to get his seasoning there. If Duke had fewer guards, and Dre played alongside a healthy Cooke, tell you what: you use your imagination, but I'm thinking he might well have been a star in the league as we speak. Then there is Tyler, who I am sure no one in the Western world wants to be matched against. This kid gets you the ball when the other team has it, when he goes for loose balls he usually gets them and the guys on the other team, whether they get it or not, much of the time wish after-the-fact they hadn't tried. K really, really likes this guy, has had him lead the team at the most significant times all season, and when he is only expected to take a few key shots or take it to the basket at crucial times to keep a defense honest has delivered admirably. Think Tommy Amakar here in a much stronger body but without Amakar's amazing quickness.

The real issue with the backcourt, a significant one in my view, is their lack of size which impacts on their ability to be formidable on defense. However, as a team, Duke has shown a pretty impressive ability to get back into games from behind and win them, which you don't do if you can't guard people. Duke's threeman rotation up front does a pretty darn good job, and was bettter than that before Mason started to wear down somewhere around the middle of the season (he seemed to lose some of his quickness and timing on help-outs, lift and quickness on the defensive boards and as an off-the-ball shot blocker). Miles was and is pretty darn formidable as an on-the-ball defender and defensive rebounder and Ryan is sneaky effective in those categories and as a shot blocker/disturber. You haven't seen Duke play what is referred to as "lock down" defense for several years now, which I think is nice because, except for this ankle sprain, the number of broken 5th metatarsals and such have all but disappeared.

So, here's the deal, right now you cannot say that this team is not in the same league as any of the other Duke teams preceeding the 2010 Champions who were 1 or 2 seeds and went out early, first or second round in the dance. You can't say that either based upon performance or talent. Maybe you can say that this team wasn't exactly on par with one or two of those tems, but nobody actually did, all anyone same that this team was and is "pretty darn good." In fact, I'm not a beating man, but if I were, I would not bet the ranch that this team doesn't end up making a name for itself in this tournament by getting a step or two farther than those other Duke teams had.

Final comments. It seems to me that this team two issues, one of which I think has basically resolved itself and the other, well, it is what it is. Let's take the other. It seemed obvious to me from the start of the season, from when it was first announced that Marshall had been red shirted, that this team was two thin, a man too thin, with respect to inside players. Duke needed more than three inside players, even though I thought that Ryan did remarkably well playing the role of a big on the defensive end especially. Mason just was asked to do too many things for two long as a slightly undersized center, usually playing against talent that had an inch or two on him, that is a team, that had at least two players who fit that category. The margin for error was just too small--foul trouble, an off night, or tired legs, mental fatigue, which once it sets in during the meat of the season is very hard to shake. So, especially without a couple or three 6'4" to 6'5" guards like Scheyer or G or Nelson (I know he's probably a half inch out of range) whose length on defense closes passing lanes (long arms can do that) and makes shooting over them problematic (often requires an adjustment of the release point or a trajectory on a shot), you really have to take your hate off to Mason, Miles, and Ryan. I think that they really, really could have benefited if they had a legit big to add to the regular rotation. I said that going in, and I still say it. But, darn, this team made it work with three, and when Ryan went down, Hairston stepped up and those guys collectively comported themselves pretty darn well--just ask VT and FSU.

The thing that troubled me the most up through about the middle of the season was what I called the lack of a coherent identity on offense (K put it differently, something about not seeing this team grow the way he expects his teams to grow). And, then, it seemed to become clear, K seemed to settle on growth, settle on a cohessive identity that was built upon putting organiztion that worked around the organized chaos known as Austin Rivers. Curry fit well as the second free wheeler in this unusal way of breaking defenses down, and K foujnd a way of having the rest of the offense be like jazz musicians riffing off the leads in a small ensemble. Ryan was the drummer who could control and direct the Chaos, through whom K could call sets or set plays, who could alter the beat if you will. And, when K needed a different, more controlled attack, particularly one that involved Mason, he did not need to stand up and hold up a clenched fist, he sent the message differently--he sent the fist out onto the court. Listen, there were many times when Tyler was sent on the court primarily for defense and to rift off the chaos, and then there were some other times, and everyone seemed to know when they were, that Tyler was sent out to take over the reigns. K, it seems to me, has shown amazing creativity and diversity in chosing playing styles in recent years that I thought had something to do with his experience heading the Olympic program over a collection of summers. This season the soldier became like James Jamerson, who set the tone on the fly the collection of jazz musicians that were the Motown Sound, the Funk Brothers (watch, Standing in the Shadows of Motown).

Now, there have not been but two clusters of players during the K era at Duke that comprised the core of some great teams: Laetner, Grant, Hurley and different very talented guys who ran with them, JWill, Dunley, Boozer, Brand, Battier, and some of the guys that ran with them. This group is not on a par with them. They are, however, "pretty darn good," as compared with K's other teams, including the JJ-Shelden one that seemed so promising. They also are "pretty darn good" when measured against the current era of Division one basketball, in which the number of teams that can really, really play has, in my mind, expanded greatly in recent years, not because of delution due to loses to the pros, but because there are more, and more players who can really play and more and more coaches that can really coach.

No body is excusing nothing here, johnpope: these guys have been ranked in the top 10 all year, often in the top 3, ended ranked 6th, beat four top ten teams, were in it to the end for the regular season championship, can within a whisker of making the tournament finals without a key big in an undermanned front court, and are good enough to beat any team, teams as good as UNC and Kansas, on any given night. I think that your measuring stick here is a little out of whack.

You sir should work for our PR department/fundraising efforts! Or for a political campaign! I don't want to get in too long of a debate, but suffice it to say so far we have not won either the ACC regular season or the ACC tournament, we have no players in discussion for player of the year, we have no All-Americans in all likelihood (perhaps not even second team), we got destroyed by an Ohio State team that turned out to be far more vulnerable than they seemed at the time (MSU won in Columbus easily), and we lost clearly at a non-BCS team like Temple. Our great wins you're talking about came against MSU and Kansas when they were, by everyone's account, playing much worse than they do right now. Do you really think we would win those games next week? FSU beat us twice. UNC schooled us at home, after we squeaked out a miracle on their court. Sorry, but I can't see how this year is "pretty darn good" so far, and I definitely would hope for more next year!

davekay1971
03-11-2012, 05:35 PM
With all this Team A beats Team B 2:1 therefore stuff, what I want to know, by transitive properties and all, from the sky is falling crowd, is this:

If FSU beat us by 3 yesterday and we should take that as additional evidence that we'll be lucky to make it out of the 1st weekend of the tournament, and we went overall 1-2 against FSU (all games close), does that mean that UNC will also be lucky to make it out of the first weekend, given that they lost by 3 to FSU today and are 0-2 against FSU? I'm not sure if I should be simultaneously upset at our impending certain doom and joyous at UNC's impending certain doom or not.

Thanks.

sagegrouse
03-11-2012, 05:38 PM
Tad bit better or better, either way, when you have 2 teams that are really close to evenly matched, I would look at their head to head record to decide who is better between those 2 teams.



This is ridiculous. You are taking away FSU's best player and their best big man. Ya, that is real similar to what Duke/UNC faced (rolling eyes).

I made a lot of noise on the site a few months ago proclaiming that "The Tournament Selection Committee is on a Fool's Errand" because (a) the only games after the Jan 5 are conference games and (b) teams change and mature a lot and at different rates over the course of the season. I'm not sure I got any converts to my view, but the TSC must consider ALL the results because if it didn't, it would have no basis for establishing parities across the conferences.

Therefore, the TSC and most fans have to recognize that FSU has some really bad losses this year -- I mean REALLY bad: Clemson by 20, Boston College (BC???), and Princeton at home. Also losses by 16 at Miami and by 18 at Florida. And, for completeness, Harvard, UConn and Mich. State. Not to mention losing to Duke at home. That's nine losses. The losses are balanced by some good wins, to be sure.

I don't find the FSU body of work to be comparable to the ten best teams in the country, which include Duke and UNC. So, I think both UNC and Duke are better, and so will the TSC (in about an hour). I guess we'll see who goes further in the NCAAs.

sagegrouse

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 05:39 PM
With all this Team A beats Team B 2:1 therefore stuff, what I want to know, by transitive properties and all, from the sky is falling crowd, is this:

If FSU beat us by 3 yesterday and we should take that as additional evidence that we'll be lucky to make it out of the 1st weekend of the tournament, and we went overall 1-2 against FSU (all games close), does that mean that UNC will also be lucky to make it out of the first weekend, given that they lost by 3 to FSU today and are 0-2 against FSU? I'm not sure if I should be simultaneously upset at our impending certain doom and joyous at UNC's impending certain doom or not.

Thanks.

Haha.

The NCAA tournament fate of a team is not based on that team's performance against one other team throughout the season. So judging how Duke or UNC would do in the tournament off of how they played against FSU is irrelevant.

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 05:48 PM
I made a lot of noise on the site a few months ago proclaiming that "The Tournament Selection Committee is on a Fool's Errand" because (a) the only games after the Jan 5 are conference games and (b) teams change and mature a lot and at different rates over the course of the season. I'm not sure I got any converts to my view, but the TSC must consider ALL the results because if it didn't, it would have no basis for establishing parities across the conferences.

Therefore, the TSC and most fans have to recognize that FSU has some really bad losses this year -- I mean REALLY bad: Clemson by 20, Boston College (BC???), and Princeton at home. Also losses by 16 at Miami and by 18 at Florida. And, for completeness, Harvard, UConn and Mich. State. Not to mention losing to Duke at home. That's nine losses. The losses are balanced by some good wins, to be sure.

I don't find the FSU body of work to be comparable to the ten best teams in the country, which include Duke and UNC. So, I think both UNC and Duke are better, and so will the TSC (in about an hour). I guess we'll see who goes further in the NCAAs.

sagegrouse

You definitely make a good point. When seeding the tournament you have to look at the whole season to determine where a team ranks. That is the correct/to the book way to do it. Separate from the FSU or Duke argument, the NCAA tourney is not a good indicator of the best team in the country. But I guess we can't discredit the national championships earned

camion
03-11-2012, 07:52 PM
No I never said that losing Kelly was "irrevelant." As a matter of fact, I said I'm sure he would have made a difference, but not a huge one. And come on with the 2 x 0 = 0 crap. EVERYONE knows that losing one good player as compared to two good players is a big difference, especially when you picked out FSU's best player and best interior player.

Duke and FSU are two fairly evenly matched teams. I don't think anyone would argue otherwise. They were similar in conference record, similar in final ranking after regular season (tbd) and going to be pretty similar in NCAAT seeding (tbd). I just think they are better than us. Seriously, if you asked Leonard Hamilton and his team "are you better than Duke?" based on your guys way of thinking they would have to answer no, knowing that they beat Duke 2 out of 3. Wouldn't they be a bit foolish to not think they are better?

You said that losing Ryan might hurt a little, but you also said this:
"I get the angle you are using to argue but the fact is they won 2 out of 3, regardless of how or who played. I'm just trying to give credit where it is due and FSU has earned the credit. My philosophy on who is a better team when they play multiple times is: who wins more of the games. Once you get into "so and so beat so and so who lost/or beat so and so" you run into a mess that basically disregards winning a national championship. "

I get what you are trying to say but I disagree with your ranking method and I disagree with your assertion that Ryan's absence doesn't make much difference. I just gave my hypothetical to emphasize that losing a player or players is significant. I'm glad you think so even if only when it happens to another team.

OldSchool
03-11-2012, 08:06 PM
No I never said that losing Kelly was "irrevelant." As a matter of fact, I said I'm sure he would have made a difference, but not a huge one.

No knock on Josh but given his size and current stage of development he is a big drop-off from Ryan on both the offensive and the defensive side.

Ryan's absence makes a huge difference in our team's ability to be effective in our playing style and to match up with top teams.

Even if he is not shooting well in a particular game, he still gets respect for his 3 pt shooting because teams know he could get hot at any moment. Pulling a big out to the perimeter opens up the lane for AR or Seth turning the corner and gives us better offensive rebounding opportunities.

And defensively with Ryan out we have a serious depth problem matching up with teams that have a big 4 (like UNC and FSU).

Ryan's health is the big variable in my mind for whether we have a legitimate shot at advancing to the FF.

ForkFondler
03-11-2012, 08:15 PM
FSU is a very good team that got off to slow start early in the season. It is not at all surprising that they beat Duke and UNC for the acct, especially as both were missing a key player. The real mystery is this: How did FSU lose to BC? That is their only really poor performance over the last two months -- and it was very poor.

Chris Randolph
03-11-2012, 09:13 PM
You said that losing Ryan might hurt a little, but you also said this:
"I get the angle you are using to argue but the fact is they won 2 out of 3, regardless of how or who played. I'm just trying to give credit where it is due and FSU has earned the credit. My philosophy on who is a better team when they play multiple times is: who wins more of the games. Once you get into "so and so beat so and so who lost/or beat so and so" you run into a mess that basically disregards winning a national championship. "

I get what you are trying to say but I disagree with your ranking method and I disagree with your assertion that Ryan's absence doesn't make much difference. I just gave my hypothetical to emphasize that losing a player or players is significant. I'm glad you think so even if only when it happens to another team.

I said "regardless of how or who played" to emphasize that no matter what excuses people used, they were still able to beat us. Yes, I know not having a player makes a difference but you still have to win the game and FSU was able to do so. FSU proved they could beat Duke when Kelly was playing and Duke proved they could beat FSU with Kelly. So who is to say he a makes a winning difference in the game when we lost with him earlier in the year.

Fact is this argument could go either way. I just assume give them credit for beating us twice and winning the ACC tournament

greybeard
03-11-2012, 09:57 PM
Thanks for the movie recommendation, available on netflix but just as dvd, not streaming.

I also agree this team is pretty good, I've wondered if this might also be the team that finally turns the coach's hair grey. The effort seems to be there now on defense so maybe they can make a run in the tourney, with Kelly back they can cause the other teams matchup problems.

Barnes and Noble, $10. Each store usually has just one, but will have a copy sent to your home free. The Funk Brothers were the sound of Motown; one guy in the video put it this way,: those guys were so good tht you could have put Deputy Dog out front instead of Marvin and still had a hit." An amazing fact, the Funk Brothers created and played the music behind more number 1 hits than Elvis, the Beattles, the Stones and sme other folksof note combined. I've watched the documentary a half dozen times; I've bought lots of copies, two for my colleague-age kids who reluctantly watched it after a summer of nagging, and many for friends, dare I say it, as 65th birthday gifts.

Back to Duke basketball. If Kyrie didn't get hurt, would Nolan have been anywhere near the player he became his senior year? The last game of the season says absolutely not.

Wildcat
03-11-2012, 09:58 PM
Good grief; we get beat, now we are pointing out what a huge difference Kelly would've made. Give FSU some credit; they have stronger, longer, quicker and a more balanced team than we do. K would've probably used josh earlier with Kelly healthy. Josh and Tyler offer the intangibles of toughness and strength; things you need when you play against teams who are more athletic. This is basic knowledge; cmon man.....

Class of '94
03-11-2012, 11:06 PM
Good grief; we get beat, now we are pointing out what a huge difference Kelly would've made. Give FSU some credit; they have stronger, longer, quicker and a more balanced team than we do. K would've probably used josh earlier with Kelly healthy. Josh and Tyler offer the intangibles of toughness and strength; things you need when you play against teams who are more athletic. This is basic knowledge; cmon man.....

I'm not ready to say Fla St is better than us when we didn't play with a full team. That said, we only to Fla St by a small margin and had plenty of opportunities to win this game without Kelly. And based on how Fla St played Carolina, I think we played Fla St more competitively than UNC did; and if the team can focus on being more disciplined on the defensive and offensive ends, I think Duke is going to be ok in the NCAA tournament.

stixof96
03-11-2012, 11:24 PM
FSU is a lot like Duke once was if you look at the two teams ( so is villinova ). Starters are all juniors and seniors that are solid, experienced basketball players. No superstars and basically no freshmen involved. Between Villinova and FSU, freshmen scored 6 points today,both teams combined. Between the two teams, they had 8 of 10 starters that were seniors......the other 2 were juniors....both teams play tenacious defense because they put the effort into it.......we need to get back to that and stop chasing these kids who are looking to move on before they ever move in.............

greybeard
03-12-2012, 01:08 AM
Good grief; we get beat, now we are pointing out what a huge difference Kelly would've made. Give FSU some credit; they have stronger, longer, quicker and a more balanced team than we do. K would've probably used josh earlier with Kelly healthy. Josh and Tyler offer the intangibles of toughness and strength; things you need when you play against teams who are more athletic. This is basic knowledge; cmon man.....

1. As some others have pointed out, Duke was not simply playing essentially 4 against 5 because they conceded the 3 to Tyler, but also State didn't need to pay much attention to Josh, so it was more like 3 aganst 5. With a healthy Kelly, (a) they must guard him at the three line, as others have said, opening it up the inside for Rivers and Curry and Mason, but also he might have made some even if he was guarded (the guy is 6'11" and has a pretty off the ground game off the bouce.

2. Kelly is the guy K uses to relay sets or plays into you have seen Ryan sqinting as he stares over to K as the ball is entiring the offensuive end);

3. Kelly is the best at getting it inside to Mason, and usally has at lest lob to Mason or Miles for a dunk); heck, he is far and away the best passer on the team;

4. Kelly blocks or alters shots way, way up in the air without leaving his feet; he also, with (I hate this term because it implies that he guy is isn't just as forseeing in other area) basketball IQ, he anticipates well on defense and often gets great rebonding position;

5. Kelly getsto the line a fair amount and makes a high percentage;

6. Kelly permits K to use Tyler alot, to run the team, to give Rivers or ad often gets to stay on the course well after the guy he subbed for rested because Duke is playing in a way that is effective in ways that you and I (well, maybe just you) don't notice;

7. Kelly would have permitted K to give Mason and Miles, particularly Mason, longer blows because of his ability to generate offense.

I know thta I am forgetting something improtant to refute your case. Oh, it would seem that there is conclusive evidence that K completely disagrees with you.

That said, I thought that Josh played terrifically and is likely to grow into first a kind of defensive specialist and then maybe into a very effective mid range offensive player.

FSU is playing great, they have size, skill, are very well organized, and are very athletic. Nevertheless, they escaped with that win against Duke; you cold have decided it by flipping a coin. I think that in their win against UNC they were much more in control. Would Ryan have been a difference maker? Who can say. FSU would have game planned differently and Josh did compete exceptionally well. In the end, we all know what K would have chosen if Ryan was ready to go. That, to me, seems to resolve the matter.

tommy
03-12-2012, 02:40 AM
No one is calling this team one of Duke's very best, but "pretty darn good," and you dispute that? Let's have a look. First off, if NC scores one less basket, if one foul (for example, a charge call in Zeller's favor in the first half that should have gone the other way because Zeller walked straight into the guy), and one play happens differently in the Duke FS game, we are talking about Duke getting a one seed in the Dance, and having a 50-50 shot of winning the ACC tournament.

True, but by the same token if a shot here or a shot there during a number of regular season games had gone the other way -- including Austin's game winner vs. UNC -- we'd have lost several more games this year.


As it is, during the regular season they went into the last game playing for the regular season championship but got blown out by a team that has 5 first round draft picks or more on its roster and was playing the best ball of anyone in the Country. They also had a chip on it's shoulder coming into that game. The other home losses were by 7, 4, and 3 points, and the 7 point loss to St. John's could only be considered one of those bad games that every team suffers (check out UNC if you want to see examples).

We beat St. John's 83-76.


The losses to the U and to FSU, in case you have not been watching, please do--these teams might well go deep in the Dance, I'd have them that way in my bracket if I was a betting man, but I'm not.

Miami failed to make the field of 68.


Aainst this, how many top 10 teams did they beat--4, two of whom, Kansas and UNC were rated in the top 5 all season and are legit picks to win it all, and the other two are from the conference that everyone said was the strongest in the country.

I assume you're talking about the Michigan State and Michigan wins, and I agree with you, those both look very good considering the seasons those teams had.


And, by the way, home court advantage all over the country and in most sports just ai't what it used to be. In college basketball, before league play begins, Duke and other top teams play the toughest part of their schedules, none of it at home. "The times they are a changin." And, while while all the heads are talkin about parody, you seem to ignore it, perhaps because you buy the head's simplistic explanation--kids leaving early which makes no sense. Before the one and done rule, the kids who leave early never came, so that cannot explain the parity. What I think explains the parity is a combination of several things that begins with dollars, dolloars from cable, dollars from shoe companies, dollars that have built basketball from AAU on up to a huge industry. Where there is unspoken parity is in the coaching ranks; guys can really, really coach em up, guys at no name schools all over the place. And, with dollars, and the emphasis on high end free clinics, and then shoe sponsored AAU teams that travel all over the place, that feed money around to identify and then develop talent, guys with potential, we, or at least I, am noticing a large number of impressive ballplayers whose names I do not know.

The two most important factors in parity, to the degree it even exists, are a) the saturation television coverage of college basketball, and b) the cultural change whereby kids all want to be a star, and they want to be a star right now. A) and B) are not unrelated. Kids think, "why should I sit on the bench for two years as the 10th man at Duke and maybe never star there when I can start right away at VCU or Davidson or Xavier or Belmont or any of dozens of teams?" "I can start at, say, Memphis, and almost all my games will be on ESPN anyway, mom and my guys can watch me from home, I'll get all the exposure I need to the pro's, and I'll just go from there."

When I say "if parity even exists" that's because while it is more common for a "mid-major" to rise up and make a decent run in the tournament, and there are more good basketball teams out there than ever, there are still very few big upsets, relatively speaking, that happen in the tournament, and the Cinderellas only rarely make it very far, and never win the whole thing.


Now, let's take a quick look at this roster. Rivers and Mason are sure pros.

Mason Plumlee is sure to be drafted. He is far from sure to make it in the league. Duke started this year with Coach K stating that we were going to emphasize pounding the ball into the post, and we did. Mason has had some excellent outings, but many times has been unproductive. Hence, the middling 11 point average. I know you think we should have fed him more, and maybe you're right, but he has not exhibited a "give me the damn ball" mentality and has not exhibited the willingness to just take over games on the interior. He's been dominated by more than one college big man this year.

He is a freak athlete, and the NBA loves that and will draft him on it, but that is not a guarantee of success in the league. He has a lot of work to do with his footwork, with developing a face-up jump shot, with his defensive positioning, and with his overall intensity before he is anything close to a sure thing in the NBA.


If anyone says that they KNOW that Ryan, Dre and Curry will not play in the NBA, I'd like to see their money.

Well, nobody knows that anyone will play in the NBA. Anthony Davis could get run over by a truck tomorrow. I can't say I KNOW those three guys won't play in the NBA, but I would bet some folding money on it. Sure, they could improve in a number of areas, and I could lose that bet, but based on their performances so far in their college careers, and the skill sets they have and don't have, none of those three guys is in my mind anywhere close to an NBA player.

I love all three guys, but here's the reality: Ryan shoots it very well for a big, and he has a high basketball IQ. He's not nearly physical enough or quick enough for the league at the 4 position, and he'd have a lot harder time getting that jumpshot off against NBA-level athletes.

Dawkins is a one-dimensional player. He has shown no ability to do anything on the floor other than make catch-and-shoot jump shots. No handle, no drive to the hoop, no defense. And even his shot is extremely streaky, and his whole game deteriorates when he isn't seeing the ball go through the net. There are tons of excellent college shooters who never sniff the NBA because all they do is shoot. Unfortunately, I think that's going to be Andre's fate as well.

Curry's game is also not multi-faceted enough for the league. He's a good shooter when he has space to get it off. I have not seen NBA range from him, however. He's improved his ability to get to the hoop this year, but he's not going to be able to do that against NBA defenders. His overall quickness is average. His handle is pretty shaky, and his defense is just OK. He's short and slight, so he gets overpowered a lot on defense and shot over. Those problems will only be exacerbated once he gets into an NBA camp.


Curry is a terrific shooter, and gets to the basket and finishes very, very well--if he had their size, you might even be talking about Curry's being at least within shooting range (cute huh) of the likes of JWill, JJ, and even Johnny D.

Jason Williams was the National Player of the Year and the #2 pick in the NBA draft. He absolutely dominated college guards physically. He was overwhelming in terms of quickness with the ball, quickness without it, and brute strength. He could also drain outside jumpshots with range. The complete package.

JJ Redick was one of the greatest shooters to ever play college basketball, who, along with Shelden Williams, carried Duke teams to places they really had no business going. He is Duke's alltime leading scorer, was the National Player of the Year, and a lottery pick.

Johnny D was also the National Player of the Year and was Duke's alltime leading scorer at the time he graduated. He was lightning quick with and without the ball, had an excellent handle and quick hands.

Again, I love Seth, but he shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath with any of these Duke immortals.



Then there is Tyler, who I am sure no one in the Western world wants to be matched against. This kid gets you the ball when the other team has it, when he goes for loose balls he usually gets them and the guys on the other team, whether they get it or not, much of the time wish after-the-fact they hadn't tried. K really, really likes this guy, has had him lead the team at the most significant times all season, and when he is only expected to take a few key shots or take it to the basket at crucial times to keep a defense honest has delivered admirably. Think Tommy Amakar here in a much stronger body but without Amakar's amazing quickness.

No one in the Western world? So long as you're not overstating it . . . ;)

But sorry, he's nowhere close to Tommy Amaker. I'll give you stronger body, but Tommy was the consummate playmaker, setting up teammates all day and night with the ball right where they wanted it and in positions they were comfortable in. He made the game easy for his teammates on offense, which is not something Tyler does. Nor does Tyler hit open jumpshots with the same regularity that Tommy did.

Oh, and Tommy was also the National Defensive Player of the Year. Tyler has not been in that conversation, as he has been only a part-time starter on this team and frankly, his defense leaves much to be desired in some key areas, primarily moving his feet to stop dribble penetration.


You haven't seen Duke play what is referred to as "lock down" defense for several years now, which I think is nice because, except for this ankle sprain, the number of broken 5th metatarsals and such have all but disappeared.

Wait, are you saying that our playing "lock down defense" has been a contributing factor in a number of our guys suffering broken feet over the years?


So, here's the deal, right now you cannot say that this team is not in the same league as any of the other Duke teams preceeding the 2010 Champions who were 1 or 2 seeds and went out early, first or second round in the dance. You can't say that either based upon performance or talent. Maybe you can say that this team wasn't exactly on par with one or two of those tems, but nobody actually did, all anyone same that this team was and is "pretty darn good." In fact, I'm not a beating man, but if I were, I would not bet the ranch that this team doesn't end up making a name for itself in this tournament by getting a step or two farther than those other Duke teams had.

Can't really disagree with you on this one. This team has been Jekyll-and-Hyde. They have the ability to make a run, and they could get bounced early like those pre-2010 teams did.


Mason just was asked to do too many things for two long as a slightly undersized center, usually playing against talent that had an inch or two on him, that is a team, that had at least two players who fit that category.

How is Mason undersized for a college center? He's 6'10" - 6'11" and 245-250 lbs. That is a perfectly good sized college center. And what teams did we play that had two players that each had an inch or two on him -- that played any real minutes, anyway? When you add Miles' size, and for that matter Ryan's 6'11" frame, our team was in no way undersized at the 4-5 positions this year. The 3, obviously, but not underneath.


Now, there have not been but two clusters of players during the K era at Duke that comprised the core of some great teams: Laetner, Grant, Hurley and different very talented guys who ran with them, JWill, Dunley, Boozer, Brand, Battier, and some of the guys that ran with them. This group is not on a par with them. They are, however, "pretty darn good," as compared with K's other teams, including the JJ-Shelden one that seemed so promising. They also are "pretty darn good" when measured against the current era of Division one basketball, in which the number of teams that can really, really play has, in my mind, expanded greatly in recent years, not because of delution due to loses to the pros, but because there are more, and more players who can really play and more and more coaches that can really coach.

No body is excusing nothing here, johnpope: these guys have been ranked in the top 10 all year, often in the top 3, ended ranked 6th, beat four top ten teams, were in it to the end for the regular season championship, can within a whisker of making the tournament finals without a key big in an undermanned front court, and are good enough to beat any team, teams as good as UNC and Kansas, on any given night. I think that your measuring stick here is a little out of whack.

Amen to that.

greybeard
03-12-2012, 12:02 PM
True, but by the same token if a shot here or a shot there during a number of regular season games had gone the other way -- including Austin's game winner vs. UNC -- we'd have lost several more games this year.
Miami failed to make the field of 68..

Look, Duke was ranked in the sixth after losing to NC, which played the best game of the year. For most of the season, Duke was ranked higher than sixth. I think that Dukehad had the better of the play against FSU. You disagree or think that Duke, having beat whom they did, was overrated the entire season; it's a free country.


The two most important factors in parity, to the degree it even exists, are a) the saturation television coverage of college basketball, and b) the cultural change whereby kids all want to be a star, and they want to be a star right now. A) and B) are not unrelated. Kids think, "why should I sit on the bench for two years as the 10th man at Duke and maybe never star there when I can start right away at VCU or Davidson or Xavier or Belmont or any of dozens of teams?" "I can start at, say, Memphis, and almost all my games will be on ESPN anyway, mom and my guys can watch me from home, I'll get all the exposure I need to the pro's, and I'll just go from there."

When I say "if parity even exists" that's because while it is more common for a "mid-major" to rise up and make a decent run in the tournament, and there are more good basketball teams out there than ever, there are still very few big upsets, relatively speaking, that happen in the tournament, and the Cinderellas only rarely make it very far, and never win the whole thing..

You're telling me that you don't se amazing ball players at the guard spots on most all credible division one teams who are amazing athletes, can shot the three, score off the dribble, score at the rim and mid range, and play within the offenses created, I mean a million of them, we see things differently. The same for the three position; I'd take FSU's three/four guy over Barnes. There are many others. Will the scouts agree? We'll see who emerges as star 3s and who doesn't on the next level.

As for coaches, I'm not even going to engage this one. The schemes that I've seen out there all over the place, the discipline and ability of teams to execute in them, the bench coaching--read an article, I think it was in the Sunday Times a while back, about the mid majors--the job that the coach from VCU has done in organizing a fair at which ADs can meet and interview mid-major coaches, how the numbers of participants has exploded. Please.



Mason Plumlee is sure to be drafted. He is far from sure to make it in the league. Duke started this year with Coach K stating that we were going to emphasize pounding the ball into the post, and we did. Mason has had some excellent outings, but many times has been unproductive. Hence, the middling 11 point average. I know you think we should have fed him more, and maybe you're right, but he has not exhibited a "give me the damn ball" mentality and has not exhibited the willingness to just take over games on the interior. He's been dominated by more than one college big man this year.

He is a freak athlete, and the NBA loves that and will draft him on it, but that is not a guarantee of success in the league. He has a lot of work to do with his footwork, with developing a face-up jump shot, with his defensive positioning, and with his overall intensity before he is anything close to a sure thing in the NBA..

Mason is a power forward; Duke polayed an offense the first few games that ran things for Mason, he was getting it early and often, on the move, guys, when they caught it often were INSIDE the 3 line and their first option was to find a way to get it to Mason, quickly.

I don't know when K made that statement but the loss of Marshall created an entirely different landscape. Some games to compete and win, K had to get it to Mason often; the team did; Mason delivered.

Otherwise, K needed Mason to devote max energy for entirely too many minutes being a beast on defense and the defensive boards to feature him on offense, couldn't risk the fouls and tiring him out. The tiring out issue was magnified because K had Mason muscling it to the rim as the exclucive means of scoring because he needed that type of attack and Mason was the list (for reasons, listen to Bopb Knight).

K declared pretty early that his team was going to live and die with the three. Not easy making qualoity entry passses from the 3 line, especially if tightly guarded by longerathletic defenders, and impossible to coming off a sreen set so you are figting through two guys and end up 5 feet behind the three line and if you break through, your job is to get in the paint and finish, except for an occasional lob over the rim when Mason had inside position. Penetrating off the bounce, or catching it inside the line, where you would have better passing lanes, was not what K wanted. Very few plays were run for Mason. When they were, you could tell, or at least I could.

We never saw a 10 foot jump shot from Mason. Impossible that he doesn't have that shot. K wanted him at the rim, not taking 10 footers.

Mason was a horrible foul shooter until past the middle of the season, and, while he improved, he was at best iffy. He shoots better, he scores more, and they can go to him more. My golf instructor told me once, you should be a single handicapper." He never saw be put or chip.


Well, nobody knows that anyone will play in the NBA. Anthony Davis could get run over by a truck tomorrow. I can't say I KNOW those three guys won't play in the NBA, but I would bet some folding money on it. Sure, they could improve in a number of areas, and I could lose that bet, but based on their performances so far in their college careers, and the skill sets they have and don't have, none of those three guys is in my mind anywhere close to an NBA player.

Cute. We'll get to the meat now.



I love all three guys, but here's the reality: Ryan shoots it very well for a big, and he has a high basketball IQ. He's not nearly physical enough or quick enough for the league at the 4 position, and he'd have a lot harder time getting that jumpshot off against NBA-level athletes...

How much did Ryan improve physically from his sophomore season to this season. Ryan shot the 3 ball, see above. We rarely saw him catch it mid range and have the option of a shot, going left or right, pulling up and shooting, or taking it to the basket, try to score the ball or dish. I think he has that game, and certainly will with another 10-15-20 pounds. He also is smarter on the court thn the average bear, which helps to catch it in that range with advantage. We rarely saw Ryan post up, have a little baseline game, or high post game. See the three ball offense.


Dawkins is a one-dimensional player. He has shown no ability to do anything on the floor other than make catch-and-shoot jump shots. No handle, no drive to the hoop, no defense. And even his shot is extremely streaky, and his whole game deteriorates when he isn't seeing the ball go through the net. There are tons of excellent college shooters who never sniff the NBA because all they do is shoot. Unfortunately, I think that's going to be Andre's fate as well...

The fact that Dawkins was a catch and shoot guy does not mean that he didn't have an off-the-bounce game. K built his offense around two guys taking it off the bounce, and they took it all the way, not for a mid range game. That's the list. How many guys can you have dribbling the thing with a three ball offense that features as its principle way of attacking the rim having two guards dribble until they see a lane and go?

Dawkins may not have a mid range game with an ability to shoot off the dribble, but I doubt it. There are pros who made their living as spot up shooters. Curry's pops comes mind. So you say that Dawkins is not that guy, but that guy was the featured guy in college; Drawkins has always played the extra guy to whomever since he arrived.

Defense. When you are scoring the ball, your defense improves dramatically. Dawkins, one might say, does not have a chance to get in the flow of the game, to miss three or four and stay out there, shoot his way out of it, score on some run outs, play mid-range if his three ain't falling, so we do not know how well he can defend. Besides, according to you, none of the guards can defend, including Austin and including Tyler. You make Austin a spot player, and see how well he defends. Tyler is a terrific defender. Look, no one guards anyone one-on-one. The lack of length in the backcourt and the absence of an athletic 3, creates much more space for an offensive guy to get around someone than when all your defenders are under 6'2".



Curry's game is also not multi-faceted enough for the league. He's a good shooter when he has space to get it off. I have not seen NBA range from him, however. He's improved his ability to get to the hoop this year, but he's not going to be able to do that against NBA defenders. His overall quickness is average. His handle is pretty shaky, and his defense is just OK. He's short and slight, so he gets overpowered a lot on defense and shot over. Those problems will only be exacerbated once he gets into an NBA camp.

He has all the range he will need and has shown it. Why shoot from 5 feet from behind the line if you can get your shot from 5 feet closer. The guy has great feel for the game and gets in great position to receive the ball. He gets to the rim pretty darn good and is scoring the ball against some pretty tall and athletic defenders. His job is to do that and only that when he takes it inside except for the occasional lob. If he had broader options, like giving it up to a big who had moved into the space currently left open so Seth could get to the rim, the defense has to be worried about that. Curry rarely stops to make a mid ranged. He doesn't have that game? Really. K paraphraised, "we live or die with the three ball."




Jason Williams was the National Player of the Year and the #2 pick in the NBA draft. He absolutely dominated college guards physically. He was overwhelming in terms of quickness with the ball, quickness without it, and brute strength. He could also drain outside jumpshots with range. The complete packag...

Absolutely. You put Curry in a 6'3" body (I think that he is a powerfully built young guy), he is not JWill, and I never said he was. I said he is close (I forget the exact words). JWill's move was the step back off the dribble, holding it sideways with a pause, if the defender came, JWill crossed over and went to the basket; if he didn't, JWill nailed the three. Maybe that move was not available on the next level? Curry has the same dribble step back shot, he has not shown the pause pair-of pants move (checkers, you have a king and slide it between two of the other guys pieces), he catches in better spots for his threes (moves better without the ball), and I think is terrific at getting inside the defense and finishing at the rim. If not JWill, then maybe his brother, only with more muscle. Fair?




JJ Redick was one of the greatest shooters to ever play college basketball, who, along with Shelden Williams, carried Duke teams to places they really had no business going. He is Duke's alltime leading scorer, was the National Player of the Year, and a lottery pick...

Reddick was the best jump shooter the cololege game has seen. The entire offense was geared to getting him a shot. You feature a Seth with JJ's size and Seth's greater quickness, speed, bribling ability, and ability to get to the rim and score, and you might have a guy who walks into the pros and has a bigger impact than JJ, at least in his first 3 years. You might have Seth's older brother with muscle.


Johnny D was also the National Player of the Year and was Duke's alltime leading scorer at the time he graduated. He was lightning quick with and without the ball, had an excellent handle and quick hands.

But, could he shoot from range, you know, the three? We don't know. He certainly never featured anything much beyond 15-16 feet to my memory. Again, you put a few inches on Seth, I think you have his older brother. I never said he would have been Dawkin's equal.


Again, I love Seth, but he shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath with any of these Duke immortals..

See above. And, here's another one, with the added size, Seth might well be a better pro than Austin, who could not have played with Kyle in the same backcourt, could not have played with Scheyer, Nelson and Singler, while I think tht Seth would have been a tremendous asset playing with those guys.


But sorry, he's nowhere close to Tommy Amaker. I'll give you stronger body, but Tommy was the consummate playmaker, setting up teammates all day and night with the ball right where they wanted it and in positions they were comfortable in. He made the game easy for his teammates on offense, which is not something Tyler does. Nor does Tyler hit open jumpshots with the same regularity that Tommy did..

Oh, and Tommy was also the National Defensive Player of the Year. Tyler has not been in that conversation, as he has been only a part-time starter on this team and frankly, his defense leaves much to be desired in some key areas, primarily moving his feet to stop dribble penetration...

Amaker played on a much different team, in a much different era. He ran with Dawkins at least his first year, whose long arms, smarts, and speed helped a bit. Amakar was the play maker for Duke. The play makers for this Duke team are Rivers, Curry, and Kelly in that order. When Tyler leads the team it is with the same authority that Amakar did; his job is different. It is to put more structure around the chaos, get more scoring from others, especially Mason, and let the other team know that they will be working much longer and harder on each possession, which is what happens.

As for defense, I think that Tyler is a terrific defender but plays in a defense different than the slap-the-floor defense that Amakar lead. He does things for this team that it desparately needs and that no one else can do, and that defense was a major, major contributer to Duke's wins. I don't know the exact wording I used. What I have said before, and what I should have said now, is that Tyler is the closest thing to Amaker that Duke has had other than Amaker himself. By the way, I think that Tyler is as insightful and knowledgible about the game as Amaker, and, if he choses to, will be a terrific head coach.


Wait, are you saying that our playing "lock down defense" has been a contributing factor in a number of our guys suffering broken feet over the years?.

Yes, most definitely.



How is Mason undersized for a college center? He's 6'10" - 6'11" and 245-250 lbs. That is a perfectly good sized college center. And what teams did we play that had two players that each had an inch or two on him -- that played any real minutes, anyway? When you add Miles' size, and for that matter Ryan's 6'11" frame, our team was in no way undersized at the 4-5 positions this year. The 3, obviously, but not underneath.

Mason is a power forward. He was made to play deep inside, and his sole job on offense was to take it to the basket. That significantly detracted from his offensive output and effectiveness. You never saw him take a 10-12 foot jump sot. You will on the next level, and he will make them. Taller players have bothered Mason, especially long armed and intense ones that side guard in a scheme that makies him work extremely hard to make a catch down low where K insists he catch it if he is to score the ball.

With a different offensive scheme, I see Mason playing much more on the high post or posting higher on the lane, playing 8-12 feet off the lane, catching and facing up, and catching it on the move, in those positions, especially on or in the paintl. You know, a power forward. We disagree.

I cannot name names. As the season wound down, so did Mason's ability to overpower, so did his quickness on defense, and so did his ability to get off his feet. I think that that is why there were so many loose balls on rebounds, so many times that Mason could not help and recover, so many times that guys were able to reach over the top and keep rebounds in play, tap them out to themselves or teammates. I use the term "so many" but I don't mean that there were a lot of these, or that Mason was ineffectual. Through the first half of the season, if he went up in a crowd on the defensive end, the ball was his. When the ball went up, he showed real facility in getting to good space quickly and got rebounds that one wouldn't have expected a guy of his size to be around.

Ryan, probably because he got so little opportunity, was a non factor on offense as an inside player. His length allowed him to shoot the three ball with space, and K called a few plays that had Ryan dribbling at speed from left to right from the wing and finishing, usually getting fouled first, on the opposite side. I think that Ryan would have been a real asset, maybe even a force, in a high/low rotation game, but that is not how K chose to roll. I'm not quarelling with it, but I think that it was pretty lonely in there for Mason.

Kelly did a really good job guarding bigs and posing a shot block threat to guys attacking the basket. Was he a force? Sneakily at times, and I think that he could compete at a [retty, maybe even very high level. I do not know whether guys with quicker hopes, feet, and strength, could do more things and/or do them more effectively. Ryan's ability to see the game as it is developing is off the charts and I think was manifest most on defense--it upped his game beyond what one would expect.

Done.

OldSchool
03-12-2012, 07:00 PM
Mason Plumlee is sure to be drafted. He is far from sure to make it in the league. Duke started this year with Coach K stating that we were going to emphasize pounding the ball into the post, and we did. Mason has had some excellent outings, but many times has been unproductive. Hence, the middling 11 point average. I know you think we should have fed him more, and maybe you're right, but he has not exhibited a "give me the damn ball" mentality and has not exhibited the willingness to just take over games on the interior. He's been dominated by more than one college big man this year.

He is a freak athlete, and the NBA loves that and will draft him on it, but that is not a guarantee of success in the league. He has a lot of work to do with his footwork, with developing a face-up jump shot, with his defensive positioning, and with his overall intensity before he is anything close to a sure thing in the NBA.

Well, nobody knows that anyone will play in the NBA. Anthony Davis could get run over by a truck tomorrow. I can't say I KNOW those three guys won't play in the NBA, but I would bet some folding money on it. Sure, they could improve in a number of areas, and I could lose that bet, but based on their performances so far in their college careers, and the skill sets they have and don't have, none of those three guys is in my mind anywhere close to an NBA player.

I love all three guys, but here's the reality: Ryan shoots it very well for a big, and he has a high basketball IQ. He's not nearly physical enough or quick enough for the league at the 4 position, and he'd have a lot harder time getting that jumpshot off against NBA-level athletes.

Dawkins is a one-dimensional player. He has shown no ability to do anything on the floor other than make catch-and-shoot jump shots. No handle, no drive to the hoop, no defense. And even his shot is extremely streaky, and his whole game deteriorates when he isn't seeing the ball go through the net. There are tons of excellent college shooters who never sniff the NBA because all they do is shoot. Unfortunately, I think that's going to be Andre's fate as well.

Curry's game is also not multi-faceted enough for the league. He's a good shooter when he has space to get it off. I have not seen NBA range from him, however. He's improved his ability to get to the hoop this year, but he's not going to be able to do that against NBA defenders. His overall quickness is average. His handle is pretty shaky, and his defense is just OK. He's short and slight, so he gets overpowered a lot on defense and shot over. Those problems will only be exacerbated once he gets into an NBA camp.


You are selling both Mason and Ryan short. It is very unlikely that Mason won't stick for at least a few years with an NBA team. Whether he can be a starter on a high-seed playoff caliber team, I don't know. The NBA game and college game are so different that you can't make a direct comparison between a player's role on a college team and what his role would be in the NBA. In the NBA there are a few stars and everyone else is a role player. You have to look at the role Mason would play in the NBA, and IMO he has very strong skills for that role.

It is true that Ryan needs to develop himself more physically. However, he made good strides in the last off-season and if he does the same again this year, he can become a potential NBA player. A good model for him would be Ryan Anderson of Orlando. Ryan needs to get stronger physically and continue to work on his 3-pt shot. If he does, I can see Ryan in the NBA playing a similar role as Ryan Anderson.

Andre needs to do a lot of work to become an NBA player, but it is not out of the question. IMO he should lower his body fat % and instead of trying to be stronger and match up physically at the 3, he should work on quickness and intensity. Someone at his size with NBA aspirations needs to demonstrate more quickness on both ends as well as more mental focus and intensity. Even JJ with his great shooting stroke had to work hard to become an acceptable defender and playmaker in order to get minutes at the NBA level. It will be interesting to see how Andre does this off-season and next year.

At his size, for Seth to make it in the NBA he will have to do so as a point guard. He has a lot of work to do to get there as a point guard but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he can make those improvements.