Will UVA Miss The Tournament?

[Greg_Newton]

I posted this on another board, and despite there being zero talk of them being on the bubble, I haven't really heard a good argument to include them. In fact, I'd probably rank them below NCSU and Miami at this point.

I mean, UVA is 22-9 (9-7), 0-1 in the ACCT, with really only one good win (Michigan, in November). They've lost 6 out of their last 10, and are 7-7 since Sene went down for the season in January (with 4 of those wins by 4 points or less).

I have a feeling this is one that the talking heads may be overlooking, but that the justification for inclusion just won't be there when the committee starts weighing all of the various factors.

(ETA: Doh, I just realized I'd already kind of posed this question on the ACCT thread earlier... mods, feel free to delete this as there's already a discussion going on).

[uh_no]

I posted this on another board, and despite there being zero talk of them being on the bubble, I haven't really heard a good argument to include them. In fact, I'd probably rank them below NCSU and Miami at this point.

I mean, UVA is 22-9 (9-7), 0-1 in the ACCT, with really only one good win (Michigan, in November). They've lost 6 out of their last 10, and are 7-7 since Sene went down for the season in January (with 4 of those wins by 4 points or less).

I have a feeling this is one that the talking heads may be overlooking, but that the justification for inclusion just won't be there when the committee starts weighing all of the various factors.

(ETA: Doh, I just realized I'd already kind of posed this question on the ACCT thread earlier... mods, feel free to delete this as there's already a discussion going on).

I think the question is: who do you include isntead of them? With the 4 extra teams, remember, 4 more very mediocre teams make the tournament. But I think you are right, there is a chance they get left out. VT has been left out for playing horribly weak OOC schedules...and the committee says "if you want to get in, play more people. So who has virginia played? That's right, nobody (even the game against michigan is contractually required). So I'll say this, I think they'll be in, perhaps in that bottom 4, but they will be below the bracketologists expectations.

[SCMatt33]

I agree that they have to get in. They only have one good win, but both sides of the bubble have teams with only one good win and more bad losses. The Sene thing is a big deal, but it's hard to see that keeping them out. I wouldn't be surprised though to see the Sene injury cause the committee to put them in Dayton unexpectedly. With a lot of bubble teams shooting themselves in the foot and a few potential bid thieves coming up short, I can't see them out.

[CDu]

There is a zero percent chance that UVa doesn't get in. Now, if the season were to have started in January, I don't know that they'd have gotten in. But that's not how it works. They'll be in, and it won't be all that close.

[dukebsbll14]

They'll be in, but I'm expecting a first round exit for the Hoos. Maybe second round.

[muzikfrk75]

No they won't.

[FerryFor50]

If UVA and/or NCSU miss the tourny, it will be bias against the ACC in a down year.

I've seen several bracket analysts put Texas in over NCSU, when they have nearly identical RPI and SOS, about the same number of quality wins and NCSU owning a head to head win over Texas. Doesn't make any sense...

[WakeDevil]

Va in Dayton. Tell me you are the ESPN person who just wondered via a tweet whether the loss to Cincinnati cost Syracuse a top seed.

[WakeDevil]

Texas has less ugliness on its resume. NC State lost at home to GT and, and Texas played the powers in its league better overall even in losing. That is something the vaunted RPI, which some people adore, doesn't take into account.

TN falls to Ole Miss, helping the ACC teams.

[Newton_14]

Texas has less ugliness on its resume. NC State lost at home to GT and, and Texas played the powers in its league better overall even in losing. That is something the vaunted RPI, which some people adore, doesn't take into account.

TN falls to Ole Miss, helping the ACC teams.

NC State beat Texas head to head though and I believe has more wins against the Top 50 and Top 100. Have to check that to be sure though. On the radio today, they compared State's resume to Virginia's, and State's was actually better.

I agree with others that Virginia will get in though. Not sure it will be fair, but I think they are a lock.

[SupaDave]

Top 4 ACC teams usually get in without fail. Very rare for them not to.

[Reilly]

The sports-reference site makes it easy to page back through conference years:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/acc/2006.html

Here's Virginia's resume this year:

SchoolYR conf record, overall record, conf place, simple rating #

VA12... 9-7, 22-8, 4th place, SRS 13.8

Since expansion to 12, these ACC teams were left out:

VT11 .... 9-7, 22-8, 4thT, SRS 13.8
BC11... 9-7, 21-13, 4thT, SRS 9.8
VT10 ... 10-6, 25-9, 4th, SRS 11.7
VT08 ... 9-7, 21-14, 4th, SRS 12
FSU06 ... 9-7, 20-10, 5th, SRS 12.4

If Virginia gets in, the folks in Blacksburg might be upset, given UVA 2012 looks like VT 2011 ....

[uh_no]

The sports-reference site makes it easy to page back through conference years:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/acc/2006.html

Here's Virginia's resume this year:

SchoolYR conf record, overall record, conf place, simple rating #

VA12... 9-7, 22-8, 4th place, SRS 13.8

Since expansion to 12, these ACC teams were left out:

VT11 .... 9-7, 22-8, 4thT, SRS 13.8
BC11... 9-7, 21-13, 4thT, SRS 9.8
VT10 ... 10-6, 25-9, 4th, SRS 11.7
VT08 ... 9-7, 21-14, 4th, SRS 12
FSU06 ... 9-7, 20-10, 5th, SRS 12.4

If Virginia gets in, the folks in Blacksburg might be upset, given UVA 2012 looks like VT 2011 ....

its all about the RPI, though...and i think uva's this year is higher than vts was the past few years.

[Greg_Newton]

ACC is absolutely terrible this year, though. On paper, I don't see how a 9-7 team with a loss in the first round (so basically, 9-8), having lost 6 out of their last 10, only one good win from 3.5 months ago, with the team struggling ever since their only player over 6'8" got injured, gets in.

Would you guys put them in over State? Miami? The committee is probably going to have to choose one or two of the ACC's three 9-7 teams, and I really don't know why you'd pick Virginia as one of them at this point. Miami certainly didn't help themselves tonight, but I think State is easily a better candidate than UVA right now.

[-bdbd]

UVA is in, but probably looking at a 10-12 seed. So early exit is a reasonable expectation (kinda a big fall for a team once raked in the top-15). I also think State gets in regardless of the ACCT semi outcome (though a win there would make me feel much better.... on so many levels...). MIA blew their last chance Fri night.

So the ACC gets 5 bids, but two of those are 9-seed or worse, and FSU is looking about a #5 or so, assuming they lose Sat. I think a #4 is possible if they beat Duke or win the ACCT.

Not a stellar year for the conference (though that's now how it'll be remembered/reported if Duke or NC@ch do some serious damage - i.e. Final Four).

[burnspbesq]

Think the ACC is bad? The PAC 12, as a group, is 1-30 against the RPI top 50.

[CDu]

ACC is absolutely terrible this year, though. On paper, I don't see how a 9-7 team with a loss in the first round (so basically, 9-8), having lost 6 out of their last 10, only one good win from 3.5 months ago, with the team struggling ever since their only player over 6'8" got injured, gets in.

Would you guys put them in over State? Miami? The committee is probably going to have to choose one or two of the ACC's three 9-7 teams, and I really don't know why you'd pick Virginia as one of them at this point. Miami certainly didn't help themselves tonight, but I think State is easily a better candidate than UVA right now.

You keep asking this, but it just doesn't matter. Based on the way the committe works, UVa will get in. Their resume is too good. It's still better than State's (unless State beats UNC today) or Miami's. Further, you're making the mistake of only comparing them to State and Miami. The committee doesn't count conference bids. They compare teams. So you have to compare UVa to the other bubble teams, like Seton Hall, Xavier, Washington, Northwestern, Drexel, Mississippi St, Marshall, Iona, Tennessee, Colardo, UMass, etc. UVa just has a better resume than those teams.

I agree that State is a better team right now than UVa. Miami is a bit more debatable depending on Scott's eligibility. And if it was simply a matter of "is UVa a good team now or as good as when they had Sene?" then UVa would be out. But that's just not how the committee works. They did just enough with Sene out to not let their resume fall completely off, so their early wins will still stand up in the committee's eyes.

[captmojo]

Losses by teams considered a lock before their tourneys, I don't think get knocked out.
Their seedings will drop or rise, however.

[Reilly]

its all about the RPI, though...and i think uva's this year is higher than vts was the past few years.

VA this year is #52 right now I believe (.577)
VT last year was #62 (.569)

http://realtimerpi.com/2010-2011/rpi_Men.html

VA getting in this year would be salt in the Hokies' last-year wound.

[Greg_Newton]

You keep asking this, but it just doesn't matter. Based on the way the committe works, UVa will get in. Their resume is too good. It's still better than State's (unless State beats UNC today) or Miami's. Further, you're making the mistake of only comparing them to State and Miami. The committee doesn't count conference bids. They compare teams. So you have to compare UVa to the other bubble teams, like Seton Hall, Xavier, Washington, Northwestern, Drexel, Mississippi St, Marshall, Iona, Tennessee, Colardo, UMass, etc. UVa just has a better resume than those teams.

Well, it matters if you're curious about how many ACC teams will get in. Do you think 5+ ACC teams will get in this year? And you keep saying UVA's resume is just "too good"; what is so great about it, exactly? How many decent teams have they beaten?


I agree that State is a better team right now than UVa. Miami is a bit more debatable depending on Scott's eligibility. And if it was simply a matter of "is UVa a good team now or as good as when they had Sene?" then UVa would be out. But that's just not how the committee works. They did just enough with Sene out to not let their resume fall completely off, so their early wins will still stand up in the committee's eyes.

Forgot about Scott's eligibility question, which is a good point. However, are you saying that the committee doesn't take injuries into account at all? UVA has NOT been a good team since Sene's injury. They've gone 7-7 with several bad losses, a 1-point win against NCSU as their only somewhat decent win. You think the committee shouldn't take that into account?

[HokieEngineer]

VA this year is #52 right now I believe (.577)
VT last year was #62 (.569)

http://realtimerpi.com/2010-2011/rpi_Men.html

VA getting in this year would be salt in the Hokies' last-year wound.

and the potential implications for the conference in the future. However, if we're comparing teams to this year's UVa team, the 2010 team had a comparable record. The key difference, of course, is that there are more at-large bids available.

I think UVa deserves to get in, but I thought that Tech team did as well. In the end, if you're on the bubble, you have no way of knowing what's going to happen.