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Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-29-2012, 10:25 AM
Alright folks, it's another season that comes down to Duke v. The Evil Empire with all the chips on the line! Let's get started with our thoughts, rants, analysis, anxiety! After Saturday, every game is an elimination game. It's been an exciting year, and once again Coach K has Duke poised for success!

Thoughts to get things going:

- How goes Roy's general attitude towards regular season "championships" v. conference tournament championships impact his prep for this game?
- Talk preseason was about how it was UNC's season to pursue perfection and how they ought to be the de facto national favorites. How did Duke put themselves one win away from the top seed in the ACC tourney with the #1 seen for the NCAA's very much in play?
- What have been the improvements you've seen through the season, last few weeks in particular as Duke has regained some of their grit and aura?
- THANK YOU SENIORS! Er, Miles.

GTHC GTHC GTHC GTHC!!!

COYS
02-29-2012, 10:44 AM
Alright folks, it's another season that comes down to Duke v. The Evil Empire with all the chips on the line! Let's get started with our thoughts, rants, analysis, anxiety! After Saturday, every game is an elimination game. It's been an exciting year, and once again Coach K has Duke poised for success!

Thoughts to get things going:

- How goes Roy's general attitude towards regular season "championships" v. conference tournament championships impact his prep for this game?
- Talk preseason was about how it was UNC's season to pursue perfection and how they ought to be the de facto national favorites. How did Duke put themselves one win away from the top seed in the ACC tourney with the #1 seen for the NCAA's very much in play?
- What have been the improvements you've seen through the season, last few weeks in particular as Duke has regained some of their grit and aura?
- THANK YOU SENIORS! Er, Miles.

GTHC GTHC GTHC GTHC!!!

Miles' increased aggressiveness will be key. Duke played UNC very well in Chapel Hill, leading for all but the last minute of the first half, and of course battling back for the victory in the end. UNC had to fight back into the game and did so largely on the strength of their offensive rebounding. Other than Zeller's excellent performance, no Heel really went off until they started collecting offensive boards with impunity. If Miles can continue his stellar work on the boards, it will go a long way toward limiting UNC's chances in the half-court.

The other key, as it always is against UNC, is to keep them out of transition. This means the guards must limit open-court turnovers and the whole team needs to hustle back at the end of every offensive possession, even on made buckets. Barnes was having a poor game until he got it going in transition the last time these teams met. Duke needs to keep Barnes away from easy buckets and turn him into a volume jump shooter (and, as mentioned before, prevent his misses from ending up in the hands of Henson and Zeller).

The final key will be to exploit our advantage from three-land while simultaneously remaining aggressive on offense. UNC has less depth than Duke. Three point shooting doesn't usually lead to many free throw attempts. However, if we stay aggressive at attacking Marshall and Hairston off the dribble and draw a few fouls while also kicking out to open shooters, it will go a long way toward making our offense more efficient. I'd love to see Duke create three point shots the way we did down at FSU. Drive and kick, pick n' pop, or just have good ball movement. The higher the quality of our three point shots, the better chance we have of generating enough offense to beat the Heels.

DukieInBrasil
02-29-2012, 10:50 AM
Alright folks, it's another season that comes down to Duke v. The Evil Empire with all the chips on the line! Let's get started with our thoughts, rants, analysis, anxiety! After Saturday, every game is an elimination game. It's been an exciting year, and once again Coach K has Duke poised for success!

Thoughts to get things going:

- How goes Roy's general attitude towards regular season "championships" v. conference tournament championships impact his prep for this game?
- Talk preseason was about how it was UNC's season to pursue perfection and how they ought to be the de facto national favorites. How did Duke put themselves one win away from the top seed in the ACC tourney with the #1 seen for the NCAA's very much in play?
- What have been the improvements you've seen through the season, last few weeks in particular as Duke has regained some of their grit and aura?
- THANK YOU SENIORS! Er, Miles.

GTHC GTHC GTHC GTHC!!!

a) Austin Rivers' awesome game-winner at the Dump. Doesn't hurt that UNC is not as good as people wanted them to be pre-season.
b) Miles's resurgence has been big, but also Austin assuming the go-to playmaker helm as well as Seth playing consistently well.

If we play @ Cameron the way we did @ the Dump, we'll win, as i don't think UNC can play much better than they did in that game, and our peak defensive intensity seems to have improved, in that we have longer stretches of PDI. Even vs. Wake we had a good 30 minutes of PDI, and still were able to recover despite about 7 minutes of essentially not playing D at all.

OldPhiKap
02-29-2012, 10:52 AM
UNC is perhaps the most talented team in the conference. On paper. But paper ain't where the game is played.

I think UNC having two conference losses is probably about expected. Duke only having two is not given what we lost last year. The fact that we are in this position is due to the fight these kids have and the coaches who lead them. Well done.

I would not be surprised to see UNC favored or this game to be a pick 'em.

Let's bring home a victory for Miles!!!

Olympic Fan
02-29-2012, 10:53 AM
I hate the title of this thread.

What's at stake is the "regular season conference championship". The "conference championship" will be decided next week in Atlanta.

COYS
02-29-2012, 10:53 AM
a) Austin Rivers' awesome game-winner at the Dump. Doesn't hurt that UNC is not as good as people wanted them to be pre-season.
b) Miles's resurgence has been big, but also Austin assuming the go-to playmaker helm as well as Seth playing consistently well.

If we play @ Cameron the way we did @ the Dump, we'll win, as i don't think UNC can play much better than they did in that game, and our peak defensive intensity seems to have improved, in that we have longer stretches of PDI. Even vs. Wake we had a good 30 minutes of PDI, and still were able to recover despite about 7 minutes of essentially not playing D at all.

Ha! PDI sounds like something you really, really should get checked out at the doctor's office.

I agree, though. Duke has been able to reach new levels of defensive intensity. Interestingly, this has often come at the expense of some of our offense. I think Duke is a better team now than a few weeks ago, but I would love to see Duke maintain this new level PDI while also reaching it's ceiling on the offensive end, too.

DukeGirl4ever
02-29-2012, 11:01 AM
I'm gonna go a little off-topic, but hey, the title says "Pre-Game" and In-Game thread.

I'm excited to see what College Game Day brings to Cameron. I hope the "hype" doesn't get us over-hyped and we come out struggling.

I have watched some of the previous Game Day shows where they play a version of the Newlywed Game with two teammates from the host school. Some of them ended up being pretty entertaining. I'd love to see some of our Duke guys do this, but I don't know if it would be a distraction.

I'm wondering if Coach K will allow them to do this on Saturday...

I know the crowd will be ready on Saturday. I'll have my Tums in hand...

CDu
02-29-2012, 11:55 AM
If we can defend a bit better and shoot well, we'll win. And if we can get a solid showing from our bigs (Miles was a bit MIA against UNC and Kelly was pretty quiet for 35 minutes), that will help. Our defense has been better lately than it was coming into the first UNC game, so hopefully we'll be better prepared to guard them.

In the past, our big guys have been able to somewhat contain their big guys. That wasn't really the case in the first meeting this year when their bigs combined for 40 points and 23 rebounds. If we can keep their bigs to around 30 points and less than 20 boards, I like our chances.

wilko
02-29-2012, 11:57 AM
I think payback, revenge and atonement for their earlier loss to us will be firmly entrenched in their collective psyche as they enter CIS, whether they admit it openly or not. If UMd can manage to snakebite them. I think UNC will come in a tad deflated. I hope that game goes to 35 overtimes.

I hope those thoughts make them tight, stiff, and they try to do too much individually and force themselves into bad plays and turnovers. I don't expect it, but one can hope. I also hope that they don't come out as they did in the previous meeting. It pains me to say it, but I cant imagine UNC looking/playing any better than that. They got the ball where they wanted it and did what they wanted.... mostly.

We cant let them do that again.

My thought would be that it starts with perimeter pressure. Deny, deny, deny and mix in some well timed pressing (or press seems to be an effective weapon) to make them work and run them into the ground so they are tripping over their tongues.
I say well timed, because with UNC this can be a double edged sword. You don't want to accidentally create transition opportunities for them, but rather keep them off pace and disrupt their continuity. We have more guards to rotate thru and can have fresher guys at the end.

Also we need the Ryan that showed up last night vs:WF.
Kelly is a player that's hard for me to watch and truly appreciate his game. When I think he has a good shot, he misses... When I think hes taking a bad shot he makes it... I like when he tries to go the basket off the dribble. He needs space to do that... Hopefully our shooters will draw attention and give him some space to create opportunities for Miles/Mason or draw a foul on Henson/Zeller/McAdoo taking it himself. RK needs to be effective.

Speaking of MP1 and MP2. They need to show up and play solid. Not spectacular. Just solid. Over the previous game, I'd like to see more rebounds and better interior D. If the guards can apply successful pressure and make UNC initiate its O a few feet further out from their normal comfort zone, it will help these guys a lot position-wise so they are in the right spots for rebounds and help recovery. And of course it would be a fantastic time for Mason to rediscover his touch and footwork.

I hope Josh can go. I'm not sure RK is the guy I want covering Barnes. Maybe in spots... he'll be hard to shoot over but easy to get around so the D needs to be alert to that.

I'm not sure we've seen the best out of Quinn yet this yr. There are times where he "looks" a shade tentative (thinking about his injury) and not reaction 100% to the game in the moment. Could be me hallucinating as well. Something in his movements strikes me that way. I cant exactly put my finger on it. Hope he picks THIS game to make me a believer.

For good or for Ill Austin is THE guy. Moments like this are why he came here. I'm OK with him being the guy. I love the way he throws his body around with reckless abandon when he goes to the hoop. He is fearless! While he used to get A LOT of charging calls (and rightly so) he has learned to not force the issue(as much) and take better advantage of the available spacing. I think his earlier proclivity to charge, hinders him in getting the benefit on a lot of "and one" opportunities. I think when he drives he is fouled more often than it is called. So he just needs to play his game and be smart. Not hide from the moment.

Seth has been on a tear as of late. We' need him to keep driving and relocate and leverage a mid-range game. He needs to play his game much like Austin.

TT - His role is a key. He needs to bother Marshall and make him really uncomfortable. Uncomfortable in a way he hasn't been all year. Needs to bother him on the shot and the drive, keep him from getting the ball back when he gives it up, take away passing angles. Between Quinn and TT we need to do work on Marshall and harass him.

Any O from Dre is gravy. When he is hot he is lava, when he is cold he is ice. I just hope for a consistent hard Defensive effort from him.

I hope CIS puts on a show and brings the energy for the players to feed on and for the recruits that will be in the house.
Hopefully all that will produce a W for the good guys.

Of course now that I have laid it bare something different and unexpected will happen.

Jderf
02-29-2012, 11:57 AM
The final key will be to exploit our advantage from three-land while simultaneously remaining aggressive on offense. UNC has less depth than Duke. Three point shooting doesn't usually lead to many free throw attempts. However, if we stay aggressive at attacking Marshall and Hairston off the dribble and draw a few fouls while also kicking out to open shooters, it will go a long way toward making our offense more efficient. I'd love to see Duke create three point shots the way we did down at FSU. Drive and kick, pick n' pop, or just have good ball movement. The higher the quality of our three point shots, the better chance we have of generating enough offense to beat the Heels.

Right. The issue is not only about taking the right number of threes, but also taking the right kinds of threes. Hopefully, our guards won't just be walking the ball up the court and jacking up bombs before setting up the offense. Austin is sometimes more prone to this than others*, and it is simply not the kind of perimeter offense we want to be running.

(*And by this I don't mean to include plays in which a pick was set for him, as in his buzzer-beater. I mean specifically plays in which he throws it at the rim before our bigs can even get in position to box out. But hey, he is kinda pretty good at those, so what do I know?)

What I would like to see is Duke setting up the offense, working the ball into 2-point land (either through drives or entry passes), collapsing the UNC defense, and then -- when necessary -- working it back outside for the long bomb. Hopefully this gets us more open shots and satisfies a popular buzz-word here on the DBR: gettting off threes "in the flow" of the offense.

gumbomoop
02-29-2012, 11:58 AM
I'll have my Tums in hand...

Highly advisable.

I'm looking for 3 OTs on 3/3.

This will present a problem for Duke, given the Heels' depth - roster depth. I expect [using the word loosely] Heels will finish with White, PJ Hairston, Hubert, Simmons, and Barnes [who will have but a single foul]. Unless K adds another walk-on before Sat [which I am recommending], he'll be faced with a really tough decision: whom to put on the floor with Cook, Curry, Gbinije, and Zafirovski? [Andre fouls out with 1:30 left in 3d OT; gets T'd-up for hanging on rim after a breakaway.....] Josh? No, K decides he's not going to mess around with the concussion thing. Marshall or Alex? Wow, losing a whole year just for the last 1:30 of the regular season? No, screw that, too. [K's indelicate language, not mine; censor him, leave me alone.] K goes with the forever-named "Final Four" and goes zone, too. [Bob Knight refuses to speak to K for 3 years.]

Carolina up 99-98, Cook drives and dishes to Curry for an NBA 3-bomb. Curry hefts it up [replay shows 3.3 on clock as ball leaves hand], gets run over by Barnes. Ted K. Hess-Valentine swallows whistle.

Ball rims out.

Zafirovski, pushed in the back by both Hubert and Simmons, tips it in backwards over his head.

100-99.

"Final Four."

Tums-time all around.

Nepos
02-29-2012, 12:04 PM
Thoughts to get things going:

- How goes Roy's general attitude towards regular season "championships" v. conference tournament championships impact his prep for this game?
- Talk preseason was about how it was UNC's season to pursue perfection and how they ought to be the de facto national favorites. How did Duke put themselves one win away from the top seed in the ACC tourney with the #1 seen for the NCAA's very much in play?
- What have been the improvements you've seen through the season, last few weeks in particular as Duke has regained some of their grit and aura?
- THANK YOU SENIORS! Er, Miles.
!

Great questions, I think.

- I believe we will always get Carolina's best shot, wherever and whenever we play them. With the exception of their shooting, they are consistently playing at a very high level right now (Zeller, Henson, and Marshall deserve the credit for the consistency). The big X factor is the shooting of Barnes -- if he is stroking it then they will be extremely difficult to beat.

- I am not at all surprised by where we stand right now. We have the most respected and most successful coach in the game right now and are one of the handful of elite teams without any excuse for not being in the hunt for a #1 seed every year. For the past 25 years we've had a depth of talent and big-game experience that few can match. To me, it is much more surprising that UConn is struggling than that Duke is being discussed as a serious National Championship contender. I expect UNC, Syracuse, MSU, Kansas, and Kentucky to contend every year with us, and am only surprised when one of the hyper-elite struggles.

- I think that individuals have improved as expected over the course of the year, but the biggest positives have been the improvement in team defense and in players feeling comfortable with their roles on the team. A Coach K quote from back in the 90s has always helped me interpret his Duke teams. He said that he looks to identify the team's three key guys at the beginning of the year and then builds the team around their strengths. I think this was in response to a question about how the 92, 93, and 94 teams were all successful, but very different from each other, and was contrasted with Dean Smith's "system" approach. More than any Duke team that I can remember, I think Coach K (and the players) probably had difficulty identifying exactly who those three would be this year. Who would be the key players on the court and what would their roles be? What is the best way to utilize the other players (roles and playing time) in support of the key 3? It took a while, but I think it became clear that Curry, Rivers and MP2 would be the three. The best roles for the others have also taken a while to crystallize (in my eyes), but I think they are now pretty set and I think that the players are now pretty comfortable with their expectations. All of this took a while (and continues to be a work in progress) because of the depth of our talent, and the massive change in roles from last year (a brand new key 3).

- I expect Miles to have a very big game on Saturday. A few sloppy plays due to the emotions, but otherwise BIG.

MCFinARL
02-29-2012, 12:38 PM
I'm gonna go a little off-topic, but hey, the title says "Pre-Game" and In-Game thread.

I'm excited to see what College Game Day brings to Cameron. I hope the "hype" doesn't get us over-hyped and we come out struggling.

I have watched some of the previous Game Day shows where they play a version of the Newlywed Game with two teammates from the host school. Some of them ended up being pretty entertaining. I'd love to see some of our Duke guys do this, but I don't know if it would be a distraction.

I'm wondering if Coach K will allow them to do this on Saturday...

I know the crowd will be ready on Saturday. I'll have my Tums in hand...

One way to do this would be to have Marshall and Alex be the teammates, though they might not be the ones ESPN would choose. That being said, as we know, Marshall is hilarious, so the entertainment value would definitely be there.

DukeGirl4ever
02-29-2012, 12:45 PM
One way to do this would be to have Marshall and Alex be the teammates, though they might not be the ones ESPN would choose. That being said, as we know, Marshall is hilarious, so the entertainment value would definitely be there.

I'd love to see Mason and Miles featured. I read an article from the Duke Magazine entitled "Three Amigos" about the 3 Plumlee brothers (I think it was already posted on DBR), and the article had me rolling. Mason's idea for a urinal video game entitled "Urine the Game" was absolutely genius.

I would love to see the sibling love featured on college Game Day. It would be a special memory for the family.

Now, back on topic. GTHC GTH!

http://www.dukemagazine.duke.edu/issues/010212/depspt.html

UrinalCake
02-29-2012, 12:55 PM
In the first game I thought we got that first half lead by hitting tough shots. If those don't fall then we're in an even bigger hole. They got pretty easy shots throughout the game, and continued to rebound when they missed. So a victory in this next one will again depend on hitting shots and rebounding.

One question for me will be whether we even TRY to go inside to the Plumlees. It seems that when they're ineffective early we just give up the inside game altogether. They need to play with confidence, and they showed in last year's ACC tournament final that they can hang with UNC's inside guys if they stay aggressive.

Marshall will be a big factor for them. We typically help off of him, so if he's hitting his shot then they become really, really tough to beat. He hasn't shot that well overall, but showed against NC State that he's capable of knocking them down in a given game.

The final X factor is our play at home, which has been mysteriously worse than on the road. There will be no shortage of motivation given the context of the game, so we'll just have to see what happens.

ChicagoHeel
02-29-2012, 12:55 PM
If we can defend a bit better and shoot well, we'll win.

It's exactly the same for us. We defended well in the last game, but not quite well enough. You shot 44% for the game and 39% from three; if you equal those numbers it will be hard for us to overcome. We shot well from the 2P range (53%), but got nothing from the three (17%). We need to get at least some outside shooting. One three won't cut it for us.

Just like last time, the extent to which you can neutralize our inside advantage and we can offset your perimeter scoring should determine the outcome.

I'm very curious to see how Rivers plays. Going into the last one I was worried about his ability to penetrate and dish- turned out he just scored a bunch. We really don't match up well against him and I'm afraid his confidence will be sky high. How do we keep him from breaking us down and creating foul trouble? My hope is that Barnes is in better shape and we can use a combination of Barnes, Bullock, and maybe Watts to make him work for his points. But Rivers blew right past HB last time, so I don't have much hope there.

Our best hope is that Rivers is just not as on as he was last time. Of course, I did not watch the game again so my memory might be foggy here, but I recall some of his shots were good only because they went in. Quick shots from behind the arc might help us if he's over-amped. I don't really like the fact that my best hope is that the opposing player becomes his own worst enemy.

Reilly
02-29-2012, 01:00 PM
Beginning with the 1980-81 season (if I'm counting right) ...

Duke: 12 ACC regular season crowns, 13 ACC Championships, 11 Final Fours, 4 National Championships
UNC: 14 ACC regular season crowns, 9 ACC Championships, 11 Final Fours, 4 National Championships

Duke with a combined 25 ACC regular season crowns and championships to UNC's 23.

-bdbd
02-29-2012, 01:00 PM
Really, really looking forward to this one.

The rest of the ACC watches while Duke and NC@ch "duke" it out for the regular season championship. All is right in the world. (BTW, if NC@ch loses, and fails to win the regular season in the ACC, does that mean that ole Huck suddenly finds religion and decides that the ACCT actually is important? Can't wait to see...) :rolleyes:

As with history, I don't expect the rivalry rematch to mimic the first game. This one will play out differently. No doubt they come in PO'd about the prior result. Both teams will be focused, if even a little over-excited. I think Duke plays a little more to their inside game than last time (not saying much is that?!)
But we'll still make a lot of threes, given their lousy perimeter D.

I think NC surges initially, based on our final-home-game nerves, but the crowd helps Duke to fight back. Let's hope the refs actually call some of the over-the-back plays NC so thoroughly got away with the first time. I hope the Crazies have some fun with Prince Harry too, who's been a little off lately (I thought he was bad, inconsistent in their UVA game). Miles' newfound assertiveness plays a role in this one, and let's pray MP2 finds his goove again too. Zeller will be particularly egging for some payback, and I expect they'll feed him some extra to that end.

Duke in a close one, but not another last-second shot.
(I don't think that my heart could take that again!) :D :) :eek:

davekay1971
02-29-2012, 01:05 PM
I have no useful thoughts to add. It's Carolina. Assuming they beat Maryland, it's for the regular season crown. It's Miles's senior day. It's Carolina.

Sack.
Pillage.
Burn.
Destroy.
Annihilate.

In the words of Conan: "Crush your enemies. See them driven before you. Hear the lamentations of their women."

In the words of Lt. Aldo Raine: "I want my scalps."

DukieInBrasil
02-29-2012, 01:07 PM
Highly advisable.

I'm looking for 3 OTs on 3/3.

This will present a problem for Duke, given the Heels' depth - roster depth. I expect [using the word loosely] Heels will finish with White, PJ Hairston, Hubert, Simmons, and Barnes [who will have but a single foul]. Unless K adds another walk-on before Sat [which I am recommending], he'll be faced with a really tough decision: whom to put on the floor with Cook, Curry, Gbinije, and Zafirovski? [Andre fouls out with 1:30 left in 3d OT; gets T'd-up for hanging on rim after a breakaway.....] Josh? No, K decides he's not going to mess around with the concussion thing. Marshall or Alex? Wow, losing a whole year just for the last 1:30 of the regular season? No, screw that, too. [K's indelicate language, not mine; censor him, leave me alone.] K goes with the forever-named "Final Four" and goes zone, too. [Bob Knight refuses to speak to K for 3 years.]

Carolina up 99-98, Cook drives and dishes to Curry for an NBA 3-bomb. Curry hefts it up [replay shows 3.3 on clock as ball leaves hand], gets run over by Barnes. Ted K. Hess-Valentine swallows whistle.

Ball rims out.

Zafirovski, pushed in the back by both Hubert and Simmons, tips it in backwards over his head.

100-99.

"Final Four."

Tums-time all around.

That was a fun story, i especially like the fact that Zafirovski gets the game-winning tip-in, and the fact that everybody else has fouled out yet Barnes only has 1.

CDu
02-29-2012, 01:07 PM
It's exactly the same for us. We defended well in the last game, but not quite well enough. You shot 44% for the game and 39% from three; if you equal those numbers it will be hard for us to overcome. We shot well from the 2P range (53%), but got nothing from the three (17%). We need to get at least some outside shooting. One three won't cut it for us.

Just like last time, the extent to which you can neutralize our inside advantage and we can offset your perimeter scoring should determine the outcome.

I'm very curious to see how Rivers plays. Going into the last one I was worried about his ability to penetrate and dish- turned out he just scored a bunch. We really don't match up well against him and I'm afraid his confidence will be sky high. How do we keep him from breaking us down and creating foul trouble? My hope is that Barnes is in better shape and we can use a combination of Barnes, Bullock, and maybe Watts to make him work for his points. But Rivers blew right past HB last time, so I don't have much hope there.

Our best hope is that Rivers is just not as on as he was last time. Of course, I did not watch the game again so my memory might be foggy here, but I recall some of his shots were good only because they went in. Quick shots from behind the arc might help us if he's over-amped. I don't really like the fact that my best hope is that the opposing player becomes his own worst enemy.

I agree on pretty much all of this. UNC has a clear advantage inside. We have a clear advantage on the perimeter. The degree to which one team can neutralize the other team's advantage will be the key. In the first game, neither team was able to handle the other team's strength, and the score was crazy high and Duke was fortunate to hit just enough shots down the stretch.

I agree on Rivers. He definitely got trigger happy in the first meeting - especially during the stretch where Barnes got hot early in the second half. He was on that night, so the results were good. But several of those makes weren't the best decisions. He just happened to have literally the best game of his young career that night. If he has a bad shooting night but keeps chucking then we could be in big trouble.

I won't expect him to be nearly as dominant as he was in that game. But I hope that guys like Curry, Dawkins, Kelly, and the Plumlees can step up for us. We probably can't afford another 1-13 performance from 3 from Kelly and Thornton. Kelly needs to shoot better and Thornton probably needs to shoot less than they each did in the last matchup.

It's the type of game that could be a 15-point win for either team if the right things play out (if either side gets hot and plays better defense), or it could be another down-to-the-wire nailbiter.

Kedsy
02-29-2012, 01:47 PM
I hope Josh can go. I'm not sure RK is the guy I want covering Barnes. Maybe in spots... he'll be hard to shoot over but easy to get around so the D needs to be alert to that.

I don't think you have to worry about either Ryan or Josh guarding Barnes. Except on switches, neither player will attempt to defend him. It will either be Austin or Andre defending him.

The Duke/UNC game often brings surprise performances, and in that vein I am concerned that Bullock may suddenly realize he's 7 inches taller than whomever is guarding him and have a career game. Other than that, to me the key is controlling Marshall. Their bigs will get theirs, not too much we can do about it. Marshall is what makes UNC go.

wilko
02-29-2012, 01:57 PM
I don't think you have to worry about either Ryan or Josh guarding Barnes. Except on switches, neither player will attempt to defend him. It will either be Austin or Andre defending him.
I don't care who, really, just as long as they can be effective in throwing a blanket on him.


The Duke/UNC game often brings surprise performances, and in that vein I am concerned that Bullock may suddenly realize he's 7 inches taller than whomever is guarding him and have a career game. Other than that, to me the key is controlling Marshall. Their bigs will get theirs, not too much we can do about it. Marshall is what makes UNC go.
I fully agree. That's why I suggested make their guards flat out work and run them ragged since they have fewer options at guard.

CDu
02-29-2012, 02:21 PM
UNC has a history of going underneath screens at the 3pt line, and as such they haven't historically done well defending the 3. By going under the screens, if the bigs don't hedge well the guards will get good looks at 3s. That can really hurt them against a good 3pt shooting team (like us).

It will be interesting to see if Williams changes that strategy. He's got the size on the perimeter to make life difficult for our shooters, and aside from Rivers (and occasionally Curry) and Cook (for the few minutes he plays) we don't have guards who are great at attacking off the dribble.

Williams is pretty rigid when it comes to philosophy changes, so I doubt he'll do it. More likely he'll stick with what got him here and try to play to his team's strengths. But it'd be interesting/scary to see what would happen if he did make that adjustment.

Jderf
02-29-2012, 02:46 PM
Duke: 12 ACC regular season crowns, 13 ACC Championships, 11 Final Fours, 4 National Championships
UNC: 14 ACC regular season crowns, 9 ACC Championships, 11 Final Fours, 4 National Championships

Just wanted to say that I'm kinda partial to your terminology of a "regular season crown" and an ACC Championship. I like it.


I agree on Rivers. He definitely got trigger happy in the first meeting - especially during the stretch where Barnes got hot early in the second half. He was on that night, so the results were good. But several of those makes weren't the best decisions. He just happened to have literally the best game of his young career that night. If he has a bad shooting night but keeps chucking then we could be in big trouble.

Regarding Austin's threes, I like it when he is taking them. However, sometimes, as you say, he can get trigger happy. If he is going to be dominating the ball in this game, which I would be comfortable with if that were K's plan, I would hope that he will focus on taking the ball to the rim, with a little three-point shooting lightly sprinkled in. For the most part, I'd say he is best used to open up the 3-point line for our other shooters. After all, we've got a lot of them.

mgtr
02-29-2012, 03:07 PM
With regard to Barnes, I am always reminded of the WC Fields movie "The Old-Fashioned Way." During the last third of the movie, the running joke line is "Here comes the Prince!"

Chris Randolph
02-29-2012, 05:19 PM
Assuming UNC stays healthy tonight, the key to the game Saturday will be scoring more points than the heels...

But seriously, it comes down to two things: 3 point shooting and big man play. We have to shoot the 3 ball well and hope they don't, and the Plumlees/Kelly have to stay close to Zeller/Henson. I don't expect our bigs to outplay them but they must compete close to their numbers/production. I expect UNC to play their best game of the year (similar to last year's season finale). I hope Duke can do the same and ride the Crazies to the win!

Wheat/"/"/"
03-01-2012, 07:12 AM
The big question/key...Will Kendall Marshall finish at the rim?

I expect him to attack off the dribble, not kick it out, he must finish. And he needs to stay rested. White needs to have quality minutes, or KM can pace himself first half if post offense from Zeller/Henson is working.

Rebounding? Who wants it more...

Fouls? Can Duke guard the post without getting in foul trouble?

Can UNC shoot straight? Their outside shooting is as bad as Duke's post offense.

Will Duke shoot lights out and steal another one?

My questions for this one....

wilko
03-01-2012, 07:21 AM
Will Duke shoot lights out and steal another one?
Not steal WIN

duke4ever19
03-01-2012, 07:28 AM
Will Duke shoot lights out and steal another one?




If we stole the last game, doesn't that make Mr. Zeller an accomplice? After all, he had a small, but significant contribution to Duke's theft... :)

dukelifer
03-01-2012, 08:15 AM
The key to beating the Heels is stopping Zeller. He gave Duke fits in the first half of the last game. In the 3 other games the Heels have lost- he was held in check. Unfortunately, this will not be an easy task for Duke. The play of the big guys will be key.

lotusland
03-01-2012, 08:39 AM
Block out, REBOUND!

CDu
03-01-2012, 08:43 AM
With UNC's win last night, the game on Saturday will officially determine #1 and #2. Had they lost and Miami won, we'd need to have either an FSU win or a Miami loss to secure the #3 seed (which would be the tiebreaker if both UNC and Duke ended up 13-3 with a head-to-head split). We wanted to win regardless. Now it matters just that much more. I'd much rather see one of Virginia/Miami/NC State in the semifinal than FSU.

gumbomoop
03-01-2012, 10:23 AM
I'd much rather see one of Virginia/Miami/NC State in the semifinal than FSU.

I understand this sentiment but don't agree, especially the "much rather" part, as "much rather" suggests that FSU is a much tougher opponent for Duke than all of the other 3.

IMO, a semi with any of those 4 is close to a toss-up; Duke would be favored, but not by lots against any of the 4. If Sene is back, and maybe even if not, UVa is very tough D. Miami is up and down, but Reggie sure beat the hell out of our inside guys. I guess we'd have the "revenge" factor on our side v. Canes; but then NCSt would have revenge-edge if they were the opponent. FSU? Toss-up, with Duke slight favorite, but not that much more dangerous to Devils' ACCT aspirations. None of the 4 teams fears Duke; they all think Duke is soft and lucky. [Well, maybe not Bennett and Cavs, whose MO is head-down, stifling D, shut up and play hard.]

They're all dangerous, unless Devils suddenly start playing with smooth efficiency. For that matter, any of our likely quarterfinal opponents - Clemson/Md/VT - would all love to upset the Devils

CDu, and others, I'm willing to be persuaded of the error of my thinking here....

[Edit: True that for 2 of the UVa/Miami/NCSt group, Duke would play a 5-seed on that team's 3d game in 3 days, but not true for the #4 seed. So that factor does make 2 of these 3 marginally less dangerous, if Duke were to get 5-seed in semis.]

Bob Green
03-01-2012, 10:29 AM
1. Knock down our 3-pointers (paging Andre Dawkins)
2. Contain Zeller (we don't have to stop him just contain him)
3. Pressure Marshall
4. Foul trouble (Carolina is uber talented but they are not deep)

Sgt. Dingleberry
03-01-2012, 10:35 AM
Block out, REBOUND!

Yeah, I agree, I really think it is that simple.

CDu
03-01-2012, 10:38 AM
I understand this sentiment but don't agree, especially the "much rather" part, as "much rather" suggests that FSU is a much tougher opponent for Duke than all of the other 3.

IMO, a semi with any of those 4 is close to a toss-up; Duke would be favored, but not by lots against any of the 4. If Sene is back, and maybe even if not, UVa is very tough D. Miami is up and down, but Reggie sure beat the hell out of our inside guys. I guess we'd have the "revenge" factor on our side v. Canes; but then NCSt would have revenge-edge if they were the opponent. FSU? Toss-up, with Duke slight favorite, but not that much more dangerous to Devils' ACCT aspirations. None of the 4 teams fears Duke; they all think Duke is soft and lucky. [Well, maybe not Bennett and Cavs, whose MO is head-down, stifling D, shut up and play hard.]

They're all dangerous, unless Devils suddenly start playing with smooth efficiency. For that matter, any of our likely quarterfinal opponents - Clemson/Md/VT - would all love to upset the Devils

CDu, and others, I'm willing to be persuaded of the error of my thinking here....

I think UVa, with the injuries to Sene and Harris, just doesn't have the weapons to beat us. They can make the game ugly, and if Evans is getting in the lane or Zeglinski gets hot they can be a threat. But I'm more concerned about FSU's depth and defense than UVa.

Miami certainly has the athletes. But I think they played as well as they could play against us in Cameron, and we didn't play very well during the first half. I'd expect us to play better than we did in the first half though not as well as we did in the comeback. Basically, I think we're a better team now than when we played Miami, and I think our improvement has been more than their improvement. But they're the team that concerns me most of those middle 3.

With State, the issue is depth and dumb mistakes. Their big guys just can't seem to stay out of foul trouble, and they don't have any sort of depth. They played the game of their lives for the first 30 minutes against us in Cameron (including getting a season-high 13 points on 3-4 3pt shooting from Alex Johnson) before foul trouble caught up to them. On top of the foul trouble concerns, there's the "close game" intangible. If it's close late, State will seemingly find a way to lose it. They just don't seem to finish strong. It cost them against Duke, UVa, Clemson, and others. We also couldn't have played worse in that first half against State. We shot only 27.6% from 3 and only 36.2% overall. I don't think we'll play so poorly again. Leslie is a concern for the matchup problems he creates. But I think we'll be more ready for his athleticism this time around. I think he caught us a bit off guard in Cameron.

I can certainly see cases made for State and Miami. I think UVa's threat is less than the other two. And I think we should beat any of the four. But I'd much rather face one of those middle three than FSU. And that's not even considering that we could face a #5 seed who has played two games the previous two days (very relevant for State and UVa who lack depth and Miami who could have a worn-out Reggie Johnson).

hq2
03-01-2012, 11:27 AM
4. Foul trouble (Carolina is uber talented but they are not deep)

Physical play by Miles down low would help some here. We need him to put some pressure
on them to get them in foul trouble. Remember, we have more one quality big than they do;
if the Plumlees Zeller and Henson foul out, that would leave RK to win it at the free throw line.

Be nice to see Andre do something again; think we're maybe due for another Andre explosion.

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-01-2012, 11:43 AM
Block out, REBOUND!

YES. If we box out, we ought to be able to neutralize their rebounding prowess to a meaningful degree. I HATE seeing all the easy stick backs they get because of poor (or no) boxing out by the defense. If our big guys will stick their backs into zeller and henson's chest, we'll do ourselves a huge favor. Henson in particular is just not powerful enough to push our guys around if they focus on good box out positioning.

CDu
03-01-2012, 11:51 AM
Physical play by Miles down low would help some here. We need him to put some pressure
on them to get them in foul trouble. Remember, we have more one quality big than they do;
if the Plumlees Zeller and Henson foul out, that would leave RK to win it at the free throw line.

Yeah, I'd feel very good about a Kelly/Hairston matchup against Hubert/McAdoo. Of course, I'd be pretty surprised if such a matchup materializes. UNC's bigs usually do a very good job of not getting in foul trouble. Still - it would be a very nice surprise if that happens.


Be nice to see Andre do something again; think we're maybe due for another Andre explosion.

Absolutely. That's the thing with this team. There are so many guys capable of monster shooting performances from the perimeter (Curry, Dawkins, Kelly, Rivers). Hopefully a few of them (or all of them - I'm okay with being greedy) can do it on Saturday. But Dawkins is certainly a prime candidate.

J_C_Steel
03-01-2012, 12:06 PM
3. Pressure Marshall

Gotta disagree here. Pressuring Marshall in the second half is what got the Blue Devils in trouble last month. Marshall simply beat his man off the dribble and found an open man when the defense collapsed to him.

In my view, Duke's better off playing a bit off of Marshall and daring him to shoot, taking away his drive and making him settle for passing the ball around the perimeter or attempting an entry pass to the post.

COYS
03-01-2012, 12:25 PM
Gotta disagree here. Pressuring Marshall in the second half is what got the Blue Devils in trouble last month. Marshall simply beat his man off the dribble and found an open man when the defense collapsed to him.

In my view, Duke's better off playing a bit off of Marshall and daring him to shoot, taking away his drive and making him settle for passing the ball around the perimeter or attempting an entry pass to the post.

Nolan was able to pressure Marshall effectively last season because he was a much better on ball defender than anyone on the current roster AND he had the size and length to take away the advantage that Marshall's 6'4'' frame gives him. In the last game, even when we played good defense on him, he was often able to throw passes over our six foot guards. I think we're unlikely to see it, but I would be very curious to see what putting Austin on Marshall would look like. Austin is world's quicker than Marshall and has the size to negate Marshall's height advantage over our other guards. Meanwhile, Tyler is a killer off-ball/help defender. P.J. Hairston would have a big size advantage over Tyler, but Tyler would probably make up for it by making it hard for Hairston to receive a pass. Zeller is a great player, but he's only effective when Marshall is able to get him the ball. I'd be for anything that would be able to slow Marshall's passing down.

Kedsy
03-01-2012, 12:32 PM
Nolan was able to pressure Marshall effectively last season because he was a much better on ball defender than anyone on the current roster AND he had the size and length to take away the advantage that Marshall's 6'4'' frame gives him. In the last game, even when we played good defense on him, he was often able to throw passes over our six foot guards. I think we're unlikely to see it, but I would be very curious to see what putting Austin on Marshall would look like. Austin is world's quicker than Marshall and has the size to negate Marshall's height advantage over our other guards. Meanwhile, Tyler is a killer off-ball/help defender. P.J. Hairston would have a big size advantage over Tyler, but Tyler would probably make up for it by making it hard for Hairston to receive a pass. Zeller is a great player, but he's only effective when Marshall is able to get him the ball. I'd be for anything that would be able to slow Marshall's passing down.

I agree with this. I have suspected for some time that Austin on the opposing PG would give us our best defensive configuration. One slight quibble, though, isn't Bullock the more likely starter at the 2? He has an even bigger size advantage over Tyler, Seth, or Quinn. And that's before we even get to who guards Barnes.

On the one hand, the huge size advantage UNC has at the SG and SF spots argues that Austin should guard one of those positions. On the other hand, both Bullock and Barnes have a size advantage over Austin as well. And neither of them is particularly skilled at creating for himself. If Austin can shut down Marshall, it might be worth the risk.

moonpie23
03-01-2012, 12:42 PM
according to the folks over on IC, we should just forfeit.........they are going to "THROTTLE" us.....

Jderf
03-01-2012, 12:43 PM
I agree with this. I have suspected for some time that Austin on the opposing PG would give us our best defensive configuration. One slight quibble, though, isn't Bullock the more likely starter at the 2? He has an even bigger size advantage over Tyler, Seth, or Quinn. And that's before we even get to who guards Barnes.

On the one hand, the huge size advantage UNC has at the SG and SF spots argues that Austin should guard one of those positions. On the other hand, both Bullock and Barnes have a size advantage over Austin as well. And neither of them is particularly skilled at creating for himself. If Austin can shut down Marshall, it might be worth the risk.


What about -- and I'm just thinking out loud here -- sticking Austin on Marshall while putting Josh on Barnes? Then Andre could guard Bullock without giving too huge of a size advantage. On offense, I think we have enough firepower that we could afford to have another screener/rebounder out there.

Of course, we'd probably want Seth on the court a lot, too, which would force Austin and Dre to slide over on defense. And I'm not even sure Josh could contain Barnes in the first place. But still, although I'm not convinced myself, it would at least be an interesting approach. What do you guys think?

COYS
03-01-2012, 12:44 PM
I agree with this. I have suspected for some time that Austin on the opposing PG would give us our best defensive configuration. One slight quibble, though, isn't Bullock the more likely starter at the 2? He has an even bigger size advantage over Tyler, Seth, or Quinn. And that's before we even get to who guards Barnes.

On the one hand, the huge size advantage UNC has at the SG and SF spots argues that Austin should guard one of those positions. On the other hand, both Bullock and Barnes have a size advantage over Austin as well. And neither of them is particularly skilled at creating for himself. If Austin can shut down Marshall, it might be worth the risk.

That was a boneheaded mistake on my part. I did mean Bullock. While Bullock is bigger than Hairston, he's less mobile. I actually think Tyler, with his strength, would have a an easier time denying the ball to the less mobile Bullock than the more agile Hairston.

Yeah, I feel like the Heels are a team that will ALWAYS have a size advantage no matter who we play, as long as our lineups make some sense (An Austin, Josh, Ryan, Miles, Mason lineup would be taller, but would also be totally silly). Mason and Miles are shorter than Zeller and have a major length disadvantage against Henson. Even Mike G is shorter than Barnes. Our tallest guard is 6'4''. Their shortest guard who plays significant minutes is 6'4''. Considering that shooting guard is already the weakest spot for the Heels, I don't see that we have much to lose by making that matchup our biggest size disadvantage with the goal of neutralizing many of their advantages in the post by keeping Marshall out of the game.

However, there are some other things to consider, too. Austin will be needed to create much of our offense. We need him fresh and aggressive. Pressuring the ball, especially since he's not used to it, could cause him to fatigue faster which may lead to some extra fouls. Also, Austin's quickness was an asset against Barnes when they were matched up last time. Barnes got going when the transition game started moving for them. However, Austin did a great job on him in the first half. Keeping Marshall bottled up is important, but making Barnes no more than a volume jump shooter is also important and Austin was excellent at that in the first half of the first meeting.

left_hook_lacey
03-01-2012, 12:51 PM
Gotta disagree here. Pressuring Marshall in the second half is what got the Blue Devils in trouble last month. Marshall simply beat his man off the dribble and found an open man when the defense collapsed to him.

In my view, Duke's better off playing a bit off of Marshall and daring him to shoot, taking away his drive and making him settle for passing the ball around the perimeter or attempting an entry pass to the post.

I agree with J C Steel. It's no secret that Marshall isn't the fastest PG out there. And if it were as simple as just pressuring him to slow the Heels down I think that gameplan would've been figured out by now as many teams have tried to put pressure on him on both ends of the floor.

Play off Marshall and make him shoot or drive. Either of those results are better than him feeding a Zeller or Henson with position, or kicking to an open Barnes or Bullock.

Also, the key to making this works is that Miles and Mason MUST box out if they can force Marshall into a shot or drive. Not to say they(Miles and Mason) don't rebound well now, but if we can force Marshall into shots he doesn't necessarily want to take, then Offensive boards are UNC's only hope IMO. I'll admit Marshall has been know to get hot when he is forced to take shots, but I'll take that chance vs. the alternatives mentioned above. Not to mention, one hot Marshall cannot outscore a hot Dawkins, Curry, or Rivers.

I say we step on their throats early as they do not seem to handle pressure situations well. Add in the fact that we're at Cameron and I think we have a recipe for another big W and tremendous confindence and momentum going into the ACC tournament, hopfully playing us right into a 1-seed for the NCAA tourney. Thinking waaaay ahead, I know, but I can't help it. Is it Saturday yet?

Bob Green
03-01-2012, 01:22 PM
...but I would be very curious to see what putting Austin on Marshall would look like. Austin is world's quicker than Marshall and has the size to negate Marshall's height advantage over our other guards. Meanwhile, Tyler is a killer off-ball/help defender.


I agree with this. I have suspected for some time that Austin on the opposing PG would give us our best defensive configuration. One slight quibble, though, isn't Bullock the more likely starter at the 2? He has an even bigger size advantage over Tyler, Seth, or Quinn. And that's before we even get to who guards Barnes.

I like the idea of sticking Rivers on Marshall to shutdown Carolina's offense. The equivalent analogy is slaying a beast by cutting off its head. Marshall is the brains and motor that makes the team run.

If we pressure Marshall and rotate Dawkins/Curry/Thornton on Barnes and Bullock the result could be a Carolina offense that is knocked completely out-of-sync.

roywhite
03-01-2012, 01:29 PM
I like the idea of sticking Rivers on Marshall to shutdown Carolina's offense. The equivalent analogy is slaying a beast by cutting off its head. Marshall is the brains and motor that makes the team run.

If we pressure Marshall and rotate Dawkins/Curry/Thornton on Barnes and Bullock the result could be a Carolina offense that is knocked completely out-of-sync.

I see there are opinions on both sides about how to defend Marshall.

The most effective defense we have played against Marshall was in the ACC Tournament finals last year; Nolan Smith covered Marshall and basically forced him to start far away from the basket and contested him whenever possible. UNC had a hard time running their normal offense. So IMO that's the best way to defend Marshall, with a big IF.....do we have a player who can do what Nolan did last year?

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-01-2012, 01:54 PM
Just throwing this out there... our half court trap hasn't come out to play lately. Given all the above discussion about cutting off the beast's head, this is another tactic that has not been discussed. I don't hate our chances with it as long as we don't become too predictable.

ChicagoHeel
03-01-2012, 02:16 PM
I see there are opinions on both sides about how to defend Marshall.

The most effective defense we have played against Marshall was in the ACC Tournament finals last year; Nolan Smith covered Marshall and basically forced him to start far away from the basket and contested him whenever possible. UNC had a hard time running their normal offense. So IMO that's the best way to defend Marshall, with a big IF.....do we have a player who can do what Nolan did last year?

I agree that this is one of the best ways to slow us down. I'm just not sure you have the personnel to pick-up Marshall that early and really pressure him. How good an on-the-ball defender is Rivers? Yes, he has quickness, but Marshall doesn't beat you with speed as much as misdirection, timing and vision. Nolan last year was effective, but that was a senior, gifted defender against a freshman.

The other option is the NCSU plan. Play off Marshall and collapse on the interior with double teams. Dare us to beat you from the outside. It didn't work for NCSU, but you never know what to expect in terms of our perimeter shooting.

The best defense against us is always a good offense. We can run even when we pull the ball out of the basket, but we're still a lot less effective.

Kedsy
03-01-2012, 02:16 PM
Just throwing this out there... our half court trap hasn't come out to play lately. Given all the above discussion about cutting off the beast's head, this is another tactic that has not been discussed. I don't hate our chances with it as long as we don't become too predictable.

I suspect Marshall may have too much savvy for this to work particularly well, but I suppose you never know.

Dukehky
03-01-2012, 02:27 PM
I thought that TT did a really good job on Barnes last time. He's a better off ball defender than on, and I think that putting Austin on Bullock and allowing him to save his legs a little for offense is a good idea, and I think that Seth on Marshall is a good call as well. Seth, if you remember correctly, was the one guarding Marshall at the beginning of the game last time and was doing a good job, but got pulled because of his foul trouble. Really any way you shake a stick at it, we're in a little trouble defensively just because of the size factor, but I think that wasting our little bit of size by putting Rivers on Marshall is a bad idea, not to mention I don't want AR to have to think much on defense, which is why I'd like him sticking to Bullock as much as possible.

I really wish people would stop suggesting that Josh be put on Harrison. Unless you hope that Josh catches him with a really hard foul to shake him up, this is a no win scenario. With him on the court, there is no offense, and Josh has no chance of guarding Harrison Barnes even a little bit. Josh can bang down low with maybe McAdoo. Josh plays hard and I appreciate it, but when there's as much difference in talent and athleticism as there is between he and the UNC front court, it's better to keep his responsibilities low.

FellowTraveler
03-01-2012, 02:28 PM
4. Foul trouble (Carolina is uber talented but they are not deep)

Carolina may not be deep, but I fear Duke is more likely to experience disruptive foul trouble. Carolina's size, athleticism, and style of play seem likely to draw more fouls from Duke defenders than Duke's outside shooting draws on UNC defenders. And in general, Marshall, Bullock, Henson and Barnes basically don't commit fouls -- all four commit 2.4 or fewer fouls per 40 minutes (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=North+Carolina); Austin is Duke's only player below 2.9 fouls per 40 (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke), and even he commits more fouls than any of those four Tar Heels.

As for defensive matchups ... I think it's worth trying to put Austin on Marshall, with Dawkins on Barnes and Curry on Bullock. Curry and Dawkins will each be at a significant size disadvantage, but Duke's going to face a size deficit at the 2 and 3 regardless. Meanwhile:

1) If Austin's size and athleticism can cause problems for Marshall, that would have obvious benefits.

2) Bullock should be able to shoot over Curry ... but from what (relatively little) I've seen, he isn't a tremendous ball-handler (and 63 percent of his shots are from outside the arc, lending some support for this observation.) Seth's quick hands and sneakiness could give Bullock some trouble -- he won't be in a able to contest shots at the release point, but he might be able to strip, or at least disrupt, Bullock before he gets that far.

3) Regardless of who guards him, Barnes is going to have at least one spurt where he hits several shots in a relatively short period of time. When he gets in a groove, there's nobody on Duke who can stop him from scoring -- and I don't think there's anyone on the team who can hold him groove-less for 35 minutes. The key is to keep his points in the 15-25 range, not the 25-40 range. (Also to try not to burn fouls on him -- Zeller's going to draw enough; no need to help Carolina get into the bonus quicker.) From what (again, relatively little) I've seen of Barnes, I think Dawkins can do a reasonable job of staying with him off the ball, keeping him from getting super comfortable, wide open jumpers. And I think that's the most important thing a defender can do with Barnes. Finally: Dawkins sometimes seems to thrive when he has a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and guarding Barnes could be useful in that regard.

Sgt. Dingleberry
03-01-2012, 02:34 PM
I thought that TT did a really good job on Barnes last time.

He definitely got under his skin. Harry resembled a frustrated camper swatting at a swarm of mosquitoes at times.

I don't know Harry's personality, but I'm pretty sure K has a good idea. If you can get Harry off his game by annoying him, I think we will see a lot of TT on him. If Harry plays better when he is pouting, then we will see Rivers and Dawkins on him.

roywhite
03-01-2012, 02:42 PM
He definitely got under his skin. Harry resembled a frustrated camper swatting at a swarm of mosquitoes at times.

I don't know Harry's personality, but I'm pretty sure K has a good idea. If you can get Harry off his game by annoying him, I think we will see a lot of TT on him. If Harry plays better when he is pouting, then we will see Rivers and Dawkins on him.

We've seen a few reports here that Tyler is a pretty effective trash talker!

Wouldn't have guessed that about TT necessarily, but I like the idea of him rattling the Black Falcon's bird cage.

Scorp4me
03-01-2012, 03:00 PM
I think Austin or Curry on Marshall is pretty good. And as someone else mentioned Thornton was surprisingly good covering Barnes. I think because he prevented him from getting the ball in any good positions. I'd be concerned putting Dre on him, size or no size. Dre's punch is his shooting...and it's a heck of a punch.

We don't need a miracle here, this is a good team. And Miles seems to have hit his stride as well. If Mason is on, Dre gets hot, Miles has a monster senior night, there's a ton of things that could put this game out of reach. Realistically though I'm expecting a close game and won't be all that surprised in either outcome.

Wheat/"/"/"
03-01-2012, 03:49 PM
I see there are opinions on both sides about how to defend Marshall.

The most effective defense we have played against Marshall was in the ACC Tournament finals last year; Nolan Smith covered Marshall and basically forced him to start far away from the basket and contested him whenever possible. UNC had a hard time running their normal offense. So IMO that's the best way to defend Marshall, with a big IF.....do we have a player who can do what Nolan did last year?

I expect Duke to try and pressure Marshall, as many are suggesting, that's why I think he will need to finish at the rim. He's gonna be able to take guys and drive.

I don't think there is a defender on Duke's team that can do the job like Nolan did that one game. Marshall is deceptively quick with the ball and can get to the rack against this Duke team. He's generally smart with the ball too, but he needs to finish better.

The other option for Marshall is to hit the open jumper. Somebody, anybody hit a jumper....UNC needs balance so that teams can't double down. The post play is so good that they've been winning from the inside anyway, but its been ugly.

If UNC can hit the open kick out jumpshot, and they'll get it, then I don't think Duke can defend this team. Duke will just have to try and outscore them by shooting lights out, which they have proved is possible, or have a great rebounding night with lots of putbacks.

I hope UNC extends their range on D this game. I'll take my chances defending your post play. I'd tell my players you don't defend face up from behind the 3pt line, you stay in front of it. No shot is too deep for Duke wings at home. Force Duke to finish inside against Henson, Zeller and McAdoo.

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-01-2012, 04:57 PM
I suspect Marshall may have too much savvy for this to work particularly well, but I suppose you never know.

He's no dummy. But didn't we actually do it a couple times in the first game. I thought I recalled at least one turnover near half court as a result. Not saying it's something we can do for 40 minutes. But selectively, I don't know... I kinda like it.

jv001
03-01-2012, 05:00 PM
I expect Duke to try and pressure Marshall, as many are suggesting, that's why I think he will need to finish at the rim. He's gonna be able to take guys and drive.

I don't think there is a defender on Duke's team that can do the job like Nolan did that one game. Marshall is deceptively quick with the ball and can get to the rack against this Duke team. He's generally smart with the ball too, but he needs to finish better.

The other option for Marshall is to hit the open jumper. Somebody, anybody hit a jumper....UNC needs balance so that teams can't double down. The post play is so good that they've been winning from the inside anyway, but its been ugly.

If UNC can hit the open kick out jumpshot, and they'll get it, then I don't think Duke can defend this team. Duke will just have to try and outscore them by shooting lights out, which they have proved is possible, or have a great rebounding night with lots of putbacks.

I hope UNC extends their range on D this game. I'll take my chances defending your post play. I'd tell my players you don't defendood face up from behind the 3pt line, you stay in front of it. No shot is too deep for Duke wings at home. Force Duke to finish inside against Henson, Zeller and McAdoo.


Some good points wheat. As for marshall, I think we should make it a concentrated effort to make him play defense. If he get's into early foul trouble, you could be in for a long night. In the last game, marshall ended up defending one of our bigs down low on switches. But the big never received the ball. I would get it down low even though your front line is good at help defense(henson). I agree we don't have anyone of Nolan's talent of defending on the ball. GoDuke!

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-01-2012, 05:04 PM
From what (again, relatively little) I've seen of Barnes, I think Dawkins can do a reasonable job of staying with him off the ball, keeping him from getting super comfortable, wide open jumpers. And I think that's the most important thing a defender can do with Barnes.

I don't feel like we usually see much off ball motion from harry. He stands around a lot. Yes, gotta stay with him if he gets some motion going. I think most important thing is fighting through high picks and not going underneath. If someone can do that effectively, that's one part of the battle. The other I'm not sure how much we can do anything about... and that it is if he just elevates over our guys for lean-back jumpers. Almost no defense for that if he does find a groove there. Those are the ones that scare me.

MCFinARL
03-01-2012, 05:09 PM
Does anyone know Josh's status for the game? I don't know if he will have a major role to play here, but his ability to spell Mason/Miles for a few minutes here and there could be important, especially if they pick up some early fouls.

Dukehky
03-01-2012, 05:19 PM
He practiced today. I think he'll be available for Saturday.

jv001
03-01-2012, 05:25 PM
I don't feel like we usually see much off ball motion from harry. He stands around a lot. Yes, gotta stay with him if he gets some motion going. I think most important thing is fighting through high picks and not going underneath. If someone can do that effectively, that's one part of the battle. The other I'm not sure how much we can do anything about... and that it is if he just elevates over our guys for lean-back jumpers. Almost no defense for that if he does find a groove there. Those are the ones that scare me.

hb usually does hang around on the perimeter, but in the 2nd half of the Feb 8th game("the shot") it looked like old roy made it a point to get hb the ball down low against our shorter guys. That was unusual as far as I'm concerned. But it did work as he had a very good 2nd half. Last night I was thinking about our best way to guard them and I thought of this(probably never happen). marshall= Austin, barnes= Ryan, bullock= Seth, zeller=Mason and henson= Miles. I know that would open us up to foul trouble with our bigs and for that reason, I don't see it happening. But I think Ryan could defend hb and Austin is our best defender on marshall. Well it was a thought. GoDuke!

flyingdutchdevil
03-01-2012, 06:13 PM
hb usually does hang around on the perimeter, but in the 2nd half of the Feb 8th game("the shot") it looked like old roy made it a point to get hb the ball down low against our shorter guys. That was unusual as far as I'm concerned. But it did work as he had a very good 2nd half. Last night I was thinking about our best way to guard them and I thought of this(probably never happen). marshall= Austin, barnes= Ryan, bullock= Seth, zeller=Mason and henson= Miles. I know that would open us up to foul trouble with our bigs and for that reason, I don't see it happening. But I think Ryan could defend hb and Austin is our best defender on marshall. Well it was a thought. GoDuke!

Like the idea of having 3 6-10 guys on the floor, but it ain't happening. MP1, MP2, and RK will be solely playing the 4 and 5 tomorrow due to UNC's incredibly big men. With HB, I suggest having him chase Rivers around on the court all day. Hopefully that will tire him out ;).

Btw, I'm amazed at how big UNC is. Is there an NBA team with a taller starting 5? Is this historically the tallest starting five in college ball?

Sgt. Dingleberry
03-01-2012, 07:01 PM
Is this historically the tallest starting five in college ball?

FSU and Baylor pop into my mind as programs that have targeted (and succeeding obtaining) height and length.

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-01-2012, 07:22 PM
hb usually does hang around on the perimeter, but in the 2nd half of the Feb 8th game("the shot") it looked like old roy made it a point to get hb the ball down low against our shorter guys. That was unusual as far as I'm concerned. But it did work as he had a very good 2nd half. Last night I was thinking about our best way to guard them and I thought of this(probably never happen). marshall= Austin, barnes= Ryan, bullock= Seth, zeller=Mason and henson= Miles. I know that would open us up to foul trouble with our bigs and for that reason, I don't see it happening. But I think Ryan could defend hb and Austin is our best defender on marshall. Well it was a thought. GoDuke!

I kinda like Ryan on HB as well. MIO, Harry doesn't have the first step to drive by Ryan. Someone with some height might be able to put better pressure on his shot. But again, yes, it puts our three bigs out there at the same time. Doubt it will happen.

NSDukeFan
03-01-2012, 07:45 PM
I kinda like Ryan on HB as well. MIO, Harry doesn't have the first step to drive by Ryan. Someone with some height might be able to put better pressure on his shot. But again, yes, it puts our three bigs out there at the same time. Doubt it will happen.

I doubt the 3 big lineup will play either, but if ever there was a game to try it, this would be it. Neither Barnes nor Bullock seem to be strongest going all the way to the basket, so Kelly may be able to keep them in front of him and get a hand in their face, for the most part.

Kedsy
03-01-2012, 08:12 PM
I kinda like Ryan on HB as well. MIO, Harry doesn't have the first step to drive by Ryan.

I think you are underestimating Barnes. He doesn't have the first step to get past a small, quick wing, but if I can say so without giving offense to Ryan, Barnes has plenty of quickness to get past any of our bigs.

jv001
03-01-2012, 09:33 PM
I think you are underestimating Barnes. He doesn't have the first step to get past a small, quick wing, but if I can say so without giving offense to Ryan, Barnes has plenty of quickness to get past any of our bigs.

Yeh, and there's always the chance he would get Ryan in foul trouble. unc gets all the calls,lol. I'm more concerned in how we defend marshall than anything. If we contain his drive and dish, we'll be very good shape. GoDuke!

sagegrouse
03-01-2012, 09:53 PM
I think our big guys, esp. at home on senior night, will match up better with the Heels than we showed in Chapel Hill. And, "match-up" means defense as well as offense.

I am hoping we are "on" shooting from outside, which would mean that we accept our homeourt advantage. But if we have to slog it out, so be it!

sagegrouse

Greg_Newton
03-01-2012, 10:21 PM
Wow. Am I correct in seeing that the $1,750 tickets on stubhub sold out completely? :eek:

Gonna be a fun environment.

gep
03-01-2012, 11:15 PM
When Zeller scores... what about some kind of cheer like "WRONG BASKET"... unless, of course, it's in DUKE's basket:cool:

Maybe, if enough "wrong basket" messages get "sent", he (and maybe the whole team) will start to question which basket to put the ball in... haha

dukeballboy88
03-02-2012, 09:15 AM
Im hype!

dukebballcamper90-91
03-02-2012, 09:37 AM
I'm more hype

dukebballcamper90-91
03-02-2012, 09:41 AM
We need a big game from the crazies. I want my tv shaking.

Matches
03-02-2012, 09:56 AM
Ir al infierno de Carolina! #gthc

jipops
03-02-2012, 10:09 AM
I feel pretty much the same before this game as before the last one. There are several matchups that are not in our favor. Key to the Feb 8 game was that we got off to a great start. I think we have to do this Saturday as well and not get knocked back early. There is a real danger of this one getting out of hand quickly. We have been giving up a number of offensive boards lately which would hurt us badly Saturday. Hopefully Barnes decides to camp out on the perimeter because once he went to the mid-range game he lit us up. I expect the heels to come in with a massive chip on their shoulder, they'll be looking to heal the wound of the last meeting.

hq2
03-02-2012, 10:33 AM
Need to have Miles put a body on Henson under the basket. I mean, Henson has long arms, but he's skinny; no way he should be getting 16 or 17
rebounds; that's ridiculous. Need to do a better job boxing out.

DukeFanSince1990
03-02-2012, 10:43 AM
I think you are underestimating Barnes. He doesn't have the first step to get past a small, quick wing, but if I can say so without giving offense to Ryan, Barnes has plenty of quickness to get past any of our bigs.

I think that might be what you want - a driving Barnes instead of a shooting Barnes. He is not been effective (that I have seen) driving to the goal with the ball.

ChicagoHeel
03-02-2012, 10:53 AM
I think that might be what you want - a driving Barnes instead of a shooting Barnes. He is not been effective (that I have seen) driving to the goal with the ball.

It's a mixed bag with Barnes. Although Bilas loves to say he's only effective off one or two dribbles, I don't think that is as accurate a statement as it was earlier in the year. He can be quite effective going to the basket scoring or getting to the line. Even when he misses it is sometimes the result of a collapsing defense, which leads to an offensive rebound. When he is mixing it up in terms of shot selection, he's awfully hard to defend. Sometimes though, he seems determined to drive when a pull up jumper or dish is warranted and forces the issue. I'm sometimes nervous when he's driving, but as a whole I prefer to see him driving aggressively to the hole. Best thing you can do is have someone really put a body on him and play physical; don't give him space.

Kedsy
03-02-2012, 10:56 AM
Best thing you can do is have someone really put a body on him and play physical; don't give him space.

Which I guess is why Tyler had decent success defending him despite being 8 inches shorter.

CDu
03-02-2012, 11:08 AM
It's a mixed bag with Barnes. Although Bilas loves to say he's only effective off one or two dribbles, I don't think that is as accurate a statement as it was earlier in the year. He can be quite effective going to the basket scoring or getting to the line. Even when he misses it is sometimes the result of a collapsing defense, which leads to an offensive rebound. When he is mixing it up in terms of shot selection, he's awfully hard to defend. Sometimes though, he seems determined to drive when a pull up jumper or dish is warranted and forces the issue. I'm sometimes nervous when he's driving, but as a whole I prefer to see him driving aggressively to the hole. Best thing you can do is have someone really put a body on him and play physical; don't give him space.

I think we're the statement is still accurate is in regard to Barnes' ability to create off the dribble. When he is given an angle (either by poor defensive rotation, offensive rebound/loose ball, or a great pass by Marshall), he's very effective at going to the rim on the dribble. Where he's not really effective is in attacking and beating his man in an isolation situation.

I totally agree with your last sentence. Really this is true of everyone except Zeller and maybe Marshall. Only Zeller is really capable of scoring consistently in spite of tough physical defense. Barnes, Henson, Bullock, Hairston, and McAdoo just aren't comfortable off the dribble unless they have space to work and (ideally) an angle at the hoop. The challenge is being able to play that type of defense while fighting through all the screens and cuts and not losing your man long enough for Marshall to make you pay. Marshall is a weird case. You want to play him tight to limit his vision. But at the same time, he is a crafty ballhandler and can punish you off the dribble. So maybe you want to play off of him to force him to shoot (where he's weakest).

The alternative is to focus on the post and force jump shots. State tried an exaggerated version of this approach to protecting the paint and left Bullock, Hairston, and (ESPECIALLY) Marshall wide open for 3s. The defense in the paint worked, but UNC hit a ton of those wide open 3s. If a team could use a less exaggerated approach (some help, but not completely collapsing - able to recover to challenge perimeter shooters) it might work.

Neither is foolproof. The reality is that if UNC is hitting shots, they're really really tough to defend. It requires great focus and discipline and great teamwork. You can't lose guys at all because they'll kill you with great passing from Marshall. You can't lose guys on shots because they'll kill you on the glass. You have to have constant awareness and communication, and you have to have great rotations on screens and whenever a man gets in the lane off the dribble. That includes the rotation to stop the ball but also the rotation to cover the guy near the basket freed by the help defender. Secondary help hasn't been our strongest point this season. We'll either need to be really good at secondary help or we'll need to be really good at stopping drives in the first place, or we'll need to get really lucky.

COYS
03-02-2012, 11:21 AM
I think we're the statement is still accurate is in regard to Barnes' ability to create off the dribble. When he is given an angle (either by poor defensive rotation, offensive rebound/loose ball, or a great pass by Marshall), he's very effective at going to the rim on the dribble. Where he's not really effective is in attacking and beating his man in an isolation situation.

I totally agree with your last sentence. Really this is true of everyone except Zeller and maybe Marshall. Only Zeller is really capable of scoring consistently in spite of tough physical defense. Barnes, Henson, Bullock, Hairston, and McAdoo just aren't comfortable off the dribble unless they have space to work and (ideally) an angle at the hoop. The challenge is being able to play that type of defense while fighting through all the screens and cuts and not losing your man long enough for Marshall to make you pay. Marshall is a weird case. You want to play him tight to limit his vision. But at the same time, he is a crafty ballhandler and can punish you off the dribble. So maybe you want to play off of him to force him to shoot (where he's weakest).

The alternative is to focus on the post and force jump shots. State tried an exaggerated version of this approach to protecting the paint and left Bullock, Hairston, and (ESPECIALLY) Marshall wide open for 3s. The defense in the paint worked, but UNC hit a ton of those wide open 3s. If a team could use a less exaggerated approach (some help, but not completely collapsing - able to recover to challenge perimeter shooters) it might work.

Neither is foolproof. The reality is that if UNC is hitting shots, they're really really tough to defend. It requires great focus and discipline and great teamwork. You can't lose guys at all because they'll kill you with great passing from Marshall. You can't lose guys on shots because they'll kill you on the glass. You have to have constant awareness and communication, and you have to have great rotations on screens and whenever a man gets in the lane off the dribble. That includes the rotation to stop the ball but also the rotation to cover the guy near the basket freed by the help defender. Secondary help hasn't been our strongest point this season. We'll either need to be really good at secondary help or we'll need to be really good at stopping drives in the first place, or we'll need to get really lucky.

I don't like State's approach because even though three point shooting is not a strength of the Heels, wide-open three pointers from guys who can shoot is a terrible idea. I'm sure that Bullock, Marshall, and Hairston shoot better when wide open. Also, with UNC's offensive rebounding ability, allowing a whole bunch of open three's doesn't guarantee an end to the offensive possession. Finally, as Duke demonstrated in the first game, two point shots at the rim are high percentage shots, but nothing beats the efficiency of good three point shooting. To a certain extent, I think very few teams are able to actually shut down UNC's inside game (I could see Anthony Davis doing this in a potential rematch between the Cats and the Heels or Florida State or Baylor pulling it off, potentially). Allowing open threes seems like asking for UNC to combine three's with their already efficient two's. That's a bad combo.

I think that limiting Marshall's effectiveness while taking Bullock and Hairston completely out of the equation is Duke's best bet. I doubt that we can keep Marshall and Zeller down, completely. I also doubt that Henson won't be able to get some offensive boards and a few easy putbacks no matter what we do. I DO think that we can slow Marshall down and make him a little less effective by making him work on the defense end and applying pressure with Austin when he has the ball. I DO think we can force Barnes to take contested jumpers. And I DO think we can make their shooting guards a complete non-factor by using Seth and Tyler to deny the ball. I feel like the question is, do we try and stop their primary weapon completely or do we shut down as many of their secondary options as possible? I think that slowing Marshall, making Barnes nothing but a jump shooter, and completely neutralizing the three point line while conceding that Zeller and Henson will score a bit inside is preferable than going "all-in" on preventing passes from Marshall to the bigs while leaving their perimeter shooters completely unguarded. I'm not sure going "all-in" will actually stop them from scoring inside and it would increase the chance that their shooters would go off from three-land, making their offense that much better.

gumbomoop
03-02-2012, 11:34 AM
I feel pretty much the same before this game as before the last one.

As do I. For me this involved, and involves, 2 things.

1. The matchup stuff, especially with Barnes and Marshall. I focused before game 1 on Barnes, preferring that a much-D-improved Austin be his primary defender. In the event, Austin did guard Barnes a good bit, especially in the first half. I thought K had a reasonable approach, in that Austin, Andre, and, to my surprise, Tyler all guarded Barnes some of the time. Wonder whether this will be the strategy tomorrow. I assume yes, as there's no obvious good answer to this problem. But, even as a problem, I think of it as an intriguing problem, not an ominous one. I don't worry about Austin getting tired by having to guard Barnes, as Austin's motor, so far, hasn't slowed. [Maybe, maybe in the VaT game, after the infamous short turnaround after FSU; but this time - and for the only time this season - Duke actually has one more rest/prep day than opponent. UNC had a one-day advantage last time. That's why Zeller was so relaxed at the very, very end.]

2. Related to my enthusiasm for seeing Austin, or Tyler [might seem ominous, but definitely intriguing], try to guard Barnes is the much, much larger point - one that I worry somehow gets lost: this is an incredible rivalry. Spectacularly good. Before the first game, I expressed the desire that Austin have a "joyous performance." I got my wish, both in that regard and in the sense that the game was yet another classic. I expect another classic tomorrow. To say that "bragging rights" are at stake hardly does justice to its import: conference regular season winner, ACCT 1-seed, possible/likely NCAAT 1-seed, GameDay hoopla, 26 billion fans in China for all I know.

I feel confident that UNC folks are thinking revenge. Hell with them. Do we - Duke fanatics - approach this game with joy, or misery?

House G
03-02-2012, 11:51 AM
Like the idea of having 3 6-10 guys on the floor, but it ain't happening. MP1, MP2, and RK will be solely playing the 4 and 5 tomorrow due to UNC's incredibly big men. With HB, I suggest having him chase Rivers around on the court all day. Hopefully that will tire him out ;).

Btw, I'm amazed at how big UNC is. Is there an NBA team with a taller starting 5? Is this historically the tallest starting five in college ball?

I'm dating myself but this front line came to mind:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1083197/index.htm

oldnavy
03-02-2012, 12:00 PM
It's a mixed bag with Barnes. Although Bilas loves to say he's only effective off one or two dribbles, I don't think that is as accurate a statement as it was earlier in the year. He can be quite effective going to the basket scoring or getting to the line. Even when he misses it is sometimes the result of a collapsing defense, which leads to an offensive rebound. When he is mixing it up in terms of shot selection, he's awfully hard to defend. Sometimes though, he seems determined to drive when a pull up jumper or dish is warranted and forces the issue. I'm sometimes nervous when he's driving, but as a whole I prefer to see him driving aggressively to the hole. Best thing you can do is have someone really put a body on him and play physical; don't give him space.

I think you have to make HB put the ball on the floor and dribble. He is ok at that, but it is not his strong suit. I would like to see a quick double team on him if he does go to the lane, not so sure he is very good at dishing the ball off....

This game will be won on the little things. Getting lose balls, foul trouble and of course hitting the open jumper that UNC will give up. If we can stay out of foul trouble get the 50/50 balls, and knock down a good number of 3's we should be in good shape.

It's Duke/Carolina so anything can happen.... I just hope our guys don't come out too hyped up!

roywhite
03-02-2012, 12:06 PM
I think you have to make HB put the ball on the floor and dribble. He is ok at that, but it is not his strong suit. I would like to see a quick double team on him if he does go to the lane, not so sure he is very good at dishing the ball off....

This game will be won on the little things. Getting lose balls, foul trouble and of course hitting the open jumper that UNC will give up. If we can stay out of foul trouble get the 50/50 balls, and knock down a good number of 3's we should be in good shape.

It's Duke/Carolina so anything can happen.... I just hope our guys don't come out too hyped up!

Agree with your comments, and I'm also a little anxious/concerned about how we start this game.
We've come out flat early in the first half several times this year. You would think that's unlikely for this game, but don't want to be flat or too hyped as you note.
Frankly, if we're about even 10 minutes in the game, I'll be a bit relieved.

MChambers
03-02-2012, 12:11 PM
I'm dating myself but this front line came to mind:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1083197/index.htm
You are, but I was in middle school in Jacksonville in 1970, and I remember that team well. (Or at least I have fond, if not historically accurate, memories.)

The power forward, Pembrook Burrows III, later became a state highway patrolman. How'd you'd like to get pulled over by him?

Jderf
03-02-2012, 12:16 PM
I'm dating myself but this front line came to mind:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1083197/index.htm


Gilmore blocked six shots, scored 37 points and grabbed 13 rebounds

I'd like to see Henson or Anthony Davis have a game like that! Holy haberdashery, Batman!

CDu
03-02-2012, 12:22 PM
I don't like State's approach because even though three point shooting is not a strength of the Heels, wide-open three pointers from guys who can shoot is a terrible idea. I'm sure that Bullock, Marshall, and Hairston shoot better when wide open. Also, with UNC's offensive rebounding ability, allowing a whole bunch of open three's doesn't guarantee an end to the offensive possession. Finally, as Duke demonstrated in the first game, two point shots at the rim are high percentage shots, but nothing beats the efficiency of good three point shooting. To a certain extent, I think very few teams are able to actually shut down UNC's inside game (I could see Anthony Davis doing this in a potential rematch between the Cats and the Heels or Florida State or Baylor pulling it off, potentially). Allowing open threes seems like asking for UNC to combine three's with their already efficient two's. That's a bad combo.

I think that limiting Marshall's effectiveness while taking Bullock and Hairston completely out of the equation is Duke's best bet. I doubt that we can keep Marshall and Zeller down, completely. I also doubt that Henson won't be able to get some offensive boards and a few easy putbacks no matter what we do. I DO think that we can slow Marshall down and make him a little less effective by making him work on the defense end and applying pressure with Austin when he has the ball. I DO think we can force Barnes to take contested jumpers. And I DO think we can make their shooting guards a complete non-factor by using Seth and Tyler to deny the ball. I feel like the question is, do we try and stop their primary weapon completely or do we shut down as many of their secondary options as possible? I think that slowing Marshall, making Barnes nothing but a jump shooter, and completely neutralizing the three point line while conceding that Zeller and Henson will score a bit inside is preferable than going "all-in" on preventing passes from Marshall to the bigs while leaving their perimeter shooters completely unguarded. I'm not sure going "all-in" will actually stop them from scoring inside and it would increase the chance that their shooters would go off from three-land, making their offense that much better.

I also don't like State's approach, and I wasn't suggesting an all-in approach. I somewhat liked the thought process, but State was too extreme in their approach. This may have been due to limited practice time for that game (State was in a stretch of 3 games in 6 days) so the players probably weren't all that familiar with the strategy.

So I don't recommend an all-in strategy, either. Whatever approach we use will need to give focus to all aspects. It's just a matter of whether you give a little more attention to the bigs or a little more attention to the perimeter.

oldnavy
03-02-2012, 12:49 PM
Agree with your comments, and I'm also a little anxious/concerned about how we start this game.
We've come out flat early in the first half several times this year. You would think that's unlikely for this game, but don't want to be flat or too hyped as you note.
Frankly, if we're about even 10 minutes in the game, I'll be a bit relieved.

Amen. I don't think we will be flat so to speak, but maybe tight. I think in this rivarly the away team almost seems to have an advantage. Senior day, hype seem to feed into trying too hard and pushing things...

It will be really nice to see a few jumpers drop within the first 2-3 minutes.

jv001
03-02-2012, 01:13 PM
Amen. I don't think we will be flat so to speak, but maybe tight. I think in this rivarly the away team almost seems to have an advantage. Senior day, hype seem to feed into trying too hard and pushing things...

It will be really nice to see a few jumpers drop within the first 2-3 minutes.

I'm afraid that Miles might come out too fired up and be tight. That could cause him to get into early foul trouble and that would be disastrous to our defense as I think Miles is our best interior defender. Like you say if some of those few jumpers go in, it could be a big difference. GoDuke!

ChicagoHeel
03-02-2012, 01:32 PM
Amen. I don't think we will be flat so to speak, but maybe tight. I think in this rivarly the away team almost seems to have an advantage. Senior day, hype seem to feed into trying too hard and pushing things...

For most of our meetings, I agree with this. I think the home team often feels the pressure of the hype more than the away team, which usually has less to lose. Tomorrow I'm afraid it won't be the case. Duke is going for the sweep, something few would have imagined prior to the season. Of course you want to win on Senior night and take the regular season crown, but you are not bearing the burden of expectations like we are. I'm also worried that we are going to be so thirsting for revenge that we are over-amped and force the issue. With the exception of Barnes, our perimeter shooters rarely recover if they start out poorly and the emotions could lead to a poor start.

If we are even after the first 10 minutes, I'll be happy.

Kedsy
03-02-2012, 01:39 PM
Frankly, if we're about even 10 minutes in the game, I'll be a bit relieved.


If we are even after the first 10 minutes, I'll be happy.

Sounds like we've come up with a formula to keep everyone happy. I say we go with it.

oldnavy
03-02-2012, 02:24 PM
Sounds like we've come up with a formula to keep everyone happy. I say we go with it.

Funny how our bias lets two different fan bases look at the same thing yet see totally different views...

I do agree that UNC might feel more pressure to perform due to the hype. It is hard to know just how the psyche from the last game will effect each team.

UNC may be thinking... "no way we should have lost that game, we are better than them and they just got lucky" OR they may be thinking, "we gave them our best shot and still lost"....

Duke may be thinking... "we were lucky to get out of there with a win" OR they may be thinking "we took their best shot and still won"....

I have no idea what either team is acutally thinking, but I have always liked going into a rematch having won the game before. It does give you a little confidence...

Lar77
03-02-2012, 03:04 PM
I'm dating myself but this front line came to mind:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1083197/index.htm

I remember J'ville being promoted as the Batman and Robin Show with Gilmore and Rex Morgan wearing Caped Crusaders uniforms.

The article touched upon the horrible "no dunk" rule that was put in because of Lew Alcindor/Kareem abdul Jabbar. Of course, he developed the unstoppable sky hook because of it. But absolutely hated that rule when David Thompson was playing.

Thanks for digging this article up.

tele
03-02-2012, 03:10 PM
I'm afraid that Miles might come out too fired up and be tight. That could cause him to get into early foul trouble and that would be disastrous to our defense as I think Miles is our best interior defender. Like you say if some of those few jumpers go in, it could be a big difference. GoDuke!

With just one senior the over-amped concern could be worse. Also, offensive rebounding is a great release for being keyed up for your last game in Cameron. Go get em Miles!

On the broader game, I hope Duke guards the perimeter 3 shooters and takes away those shots; can be a boost to the road team in a tough environment. I htink the d on the bigs and the ball can be Dukes usual tough d. In a way Duke has more front line Depth than chapel hill, 3 vs 2 (mp1/mp2/rk vs z/h. If fouls or fatigue become a factor there, it may tip things Duke's way. Not to mention help on the rebounding battle.

Should be fun to watch. Go Duke!

BluDvlsN1
03-02-2012, 07:29 PM
2443

A really good sport ! :rolleyes:

Bob Green
03-02-2012, 07:38 PM
Vegas currently has Duke as a one point favorite with the over/under set at 154:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/duke

So I'll bet the over and look for a 78-77 Duke victory.

duke09hms
03-02-2012, 09:21 PM
Just heard from my sister, a sophomore at Duke, that Jeremy Lin will be in attendance at the game tomorrow night!

Wonder if he's going to shoot around with the team a bit, show them a few tricks.

theAlaskanBear
03-02-2012, 10:00 PM
Gtch. GTHC. Can't wait for the game but I have to record it because I am working. LETS GO DUKE.

Mr.Analogy
03-02-2012, 10:04 PM
Wow, the tarhole faithful have been out in full force today, I can't even count the number of sissy blue hats and shirts I've seen!!! Of course they all get a full dose of royal blue coming back at em!

I feel good about tomorrow nights fight, Duke, K and staff, the crazies and us fans will be ready. It will be a battle but Miles knows this is his last home game and he'll be ready. Austin is ready, Seth and Andre are set and I know that Mason wants to prove a point and show the holes who owns the ACC. It will be another amazing game but in the end Duke will secure another huge win.

Go Duke and GSTHC (go straight to hell carolina)

In K I trust!

uh_no
03-03-2012, 12:27 AM
For those not around, the walk up line is by far longer than I've ever seen it. It starts at cameron goes down the side walk nearest the trees, along towerview, up the sidewalk near the main crosswalk, before turning back on the angled sidewalk in front of the tennis courts back towards towerview. I don't know if I've ever seen it get that far at Gametime, let alone the night before! given tents take up more space than just standing, but its crazy. So much for being less crazie!

Kedsy
03-03-2012, 02:22 AM
Funny how our bias lets two different fan bases look at the same thing yet see totally different views...

I do agree that UNC might feel more pressure to perform due to the hype. It is hard to know just how the psyche from the last game will effect each team.

UNC may be thinking... "no way we should have lost that game, we are better than them and they just got lucky" OR they may be thinking, "we gave them our best shot and still lost"....

Duke may be thinking... "we were lucky to get out of there with a win" OR they may be thinking "we took their best shot and still won"....

I have no idea what either team is acutally thinking, but I have always liked going into a rematch having won the game before. It does give you a little confidence...

Here are a few useless facts from the history of the rivalry:

-- Since Roy has been at UNC, Duke has won the first Duke/UNC game 7 times out of 9. UNC has won the 2nd Duke/UNC game 6 times out of 8.

-- Since K has been at Duke, if the first game was won by the visiting team, that team has completed the sweep at home 11 times and dropped the second (home) game 5 times; BUT, if you discount games in which one team or the other was unranked, that disparity drops to 6 sweeps and 5 splits. If you only count games where the two teams were ranked within 5 spots of each other, it's only 2 sweeps vs. 4 splits.

-- Not relevant to this season, but for completeness' sake, if the home team won the first Duke/UNC game, they also won the second (road) game 6 times, while they dropped the second (road) game 9 times. If you take out games where one or the other team was unranked, it becomes 3 sweeps and 7 splits. If you only count games where the teams were ranked within 5 spots of each other, it's 2 sweeps and 5 splits.

-- So, in K's tenure overall we've seen 17 sweeps and 14 splits. If you only count games where both teams are ranked, it's 9 sweeps and 12 splits. If you only count games where the teams are ranked within 5 spots of each other, it's 4 sweeps and 9 splits.

What does all this mean for tonight's game? Pretty much nothing. But unless you count games where one team is ranked and the other isn't, from a historical perspective winning the first rivalry game does not appear to give you a leg up in winning the second. It's a small sample size, obviously, but if you had to pick you'd almost have to say it's actually the opposite, or at the very least no better than even money.


EDIT: The reason I keep taking out games where one or the other team is unranked is, although anything can happen in this rivalry, it usually doesn't. Since K has been at Duke, an unranked team has only beaten its arch-rival 4 times vs. 17 losses. And two of those wins came in 1990, when unranked Carolina inexplicably swept us (but we went to the national title game anyway). The other two surprise wins were 2003, when unranked UNC beat 10th ranked Duke at Carolina, and 1981 (K's first year), in the Gene Banks game at Cameron.

uh_no
03-03-2012, 02:33 AM
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7640741/source-indianapolis-colts-peyton-manning-throws-duke-university-workout

keep an eye out for Peyton at the game! (btw so cool that HOFers can come to duke and practice...shows you how great our facilities have become)

If i recall he was at the game in 2009 as well.

left_hook_lacey
03-03-2012, 09:57 AM
Anyone else having trouble concentrating?

I'm trying to get these last drawings out so I can start my pre-game festivites in a timely manner. But the more I try to concentrate and buckle down, the more I end up on DBR or looking at the odds and previews. I even ended up on youtube somehow looking at game clips from the 80's.

It's a counterintuative vicious cycle that I'm stuck in. My CAD program calls this a "Circular Reference Error". I think that's a fitting name to this madness.

GTHC!

moonpie23
03-03-2012, 09:57 AM
how about springsteen? will bruce be in attendance?

dukeballboy88
03-03-2012, 10:06 AM
The spread opened up with Duke -1 and at 8 am this morning it had already moved to UNC -1.5. Just checked it again and its at unc -2. That means heavy cash laid on unc already.

detule
03-03-2012, 11:17 AM
Students in Cameron seem more excited about getting on camera (doing the macarena wth?) than showing some school spirit with some powerful/coordinated cheers.

Psyched about this game.

uh_no
03-03-2012, 11:18 AM
Students in Cameron seem more excited about getting on camera (doing the macarena wth?) than showing some school spirit with some powerful/coordinated cheers.

Psyched about this game.

Its college gameday.....kits are there exclusively to be on camera....thats the point of going to college gameday.....looks awesome in there!

detule
03-03-2012, 11:28 AM
Its college gameday.....kits are there exclusively to be on camera....thats the point of going to college gameday.....looks awesome in there!

Looks pretty pathetic/dead from where I am standing. Perhaps the producers need to get involved and get some cheers going.

uh_no
03-03-2012, 11:33 AM
Looks pretty pathetic/dead from where I am standing. Perhaps the producers need to get involved and get some cheers going.

perhaps you should realize its tough to get crazy when you're standing there watching people talk.

the kids were out all friggin night for personal checks so they are likely tired...and they had to be there at like 830 this morning....lets be reasonable...its much more important that they are cheering tonight.....

from my perspective, they look like theyr'e having as much fun as they can right now for watching people sit there and talk about stuff....

the producers control exactly when each cheer happens anyway....its all worked out with digger and Jeff Au (the band director)....i mean should they start a "tuck your shirt in" chant while hubert is talking?

lets be realistic about expectations

detule
03-03-2012, 11:42 AM
perhaps you should realize its tough to get crazy when you're standing there watching people talk.

the kids were out all friggin night for personal checks so they are likely tired...and they had to be there at like 830 this morning....lets be reasonable...its much more important that they are cheering tonight.....


When I used to be there, making personal sacrifices to attend a game (such as camping out) was motivation to cheer HARDER, rather than an excuse to slack off.

I have seen many a game day with a better showing from the fan base -> this is hardly a testament to cameron being the "fiercest arena of college basketball" in comparison.

Done ranting about the crazies, don't want to derail the pregame thread.

uh_no
03-03-2012, 11:49 AM
When I used to be there, making personal sacrifices to attend a game (such as camping out) was motivation to cheer HARDER, rather than an excuse to slack off.

I have seen many a game day with a better showing from the fan base -> this is hardly a testament to cameron being the "fiercest arena of college basketball" in comparison.

Done ranting about the crazies, don't want to derail the pregame thread.

a) other fan bases generally haven't been camping out for a month before game day
b) this is exactly the 4th gameday at cameron, I've been to each of them (less this morning), as you may have been, and I find this one about the same. Wew stood around when people were talking having no idea what to do... While I would love to go on a "it was better in my day" schtick, I know that its not "my day" anymore.....

PumpkinFunk
03-03-2012, 11:53 AM
One thing that is different about College GameDay this year as opposed to other years is that it's a two-hour show. That doesn't help the atmosphere. The Crazies want to conserve their energy and their voices for tonight. Especially their voices. It's very easy to kill it with 2 hours of cheering in the morning.

Johnny Chill
03-03-2012, 11:55 AM
Just heard from my sister, a sophomore at Duke, that Jeremy Lin will be in attendance at the game tomorrow night!

Wonder if he's going to shoot around with the team a bit, show them a few tricks.

Kyrie had flu like symptoms, hmmm... using up his sick days, maybe he is just trying to catch the game live.

Chris Randolph
03-03-2012, 12:56 PM
The spread opened up with Duke -1 and at 8 am this morning it had already moved to UNC -1.5. Just checked it again and its at unc -2. That means heavy cash laid on unc already.

Interesting. Not at all surprised that UNC is the favorite. In a big game like this, if Vegas has the road team as the favorite that is no bueno for the home team. *Fingers crossed

Native
03-03-2012, 01:20 PM
One thing that is different about College GameDay this year as opposed to other years is that it's a two-hour show. That doesn't help the atmosphere. The Crazies want to conserve their energy and their voices for tonight. Especially their voices. It's very easy to kill it with 2 hours of cheering in the morning.

On the money. From someone who slept in K-Ville last night to go to GameDay when I didn't have to (I was front and center with the "Ball So Hard" sign), we were dead this morning. P-Checks, the screening, K's talk, and the manager's game took a lot out of us. Plus with midterms and everything this week it's basically been hell for the past seven days. Fortunately we have about a five hour period to regain our strength.

We'll be ready tonight. Mark my words.

robobevan
03-03-2012, 01:47 PM
I don't think it's the crazies we need to worry about for tonight's game. It's the people upstairs who have to get up off their butts and cheer instead of just depending on the students for noise. We need all 9000 + at Cameron to be "Crazies" tonight. Go duke!

JasonEvans
03-03-2012, 01:50 PM
A bunch of Duke friends, several of whom would be known on these boards, have been emailing over the past 24 hours about how pessimistic they all are about this game. I took a moment to write the following and figured I would post it here for all of you as well.

- - - -

There is the eye test... which is significant as we all trust our eyes. But, something else to consider in this game is the numbers test. It sounds silly, but I sometimes find that numbers show us things our eyes did not see.

The numbers say that Carolina played pretty darn well last game. Zeller, in the first half, and Barnes, in the second half, probably had their best halfs of the season. Henson pulled down 17 rebounds, his best game of the year on the boards. As a team, they hit almost 50% of their shots, a good shooting night for any team, and only turned the ball over 9 times.

So, how much can they expect to improve upon those numbers? Other than the fact that they did not take or hit many 3s, I see relatively few areas where Carolina can expect to play significantly better than they did in the first game. I guess Barnes and Zeller could both be "hot" and dominate in both halves... though they beat anyone if that happens and it is somewhat unreasonable to expect multiple players to have their best game of the year at the same time.

Duke, on the other hand, shot an ok but not great 43% from the field and 39% from 3point range. Sure, we could shoot worse but we could also shoot better. Neither of those FG percentages are unusually strong for this team. We got hammered on the boards by 10 and were more than a little hampered with foul trouble (TT fouled out, 2 other guys had 4, 3 other guys had 3). Of course, Duke could play worse, but it is not at all unfair to say that -- statistically -- Carolina played a little above their heads and Duke played a little below.

...and we still won.

So, why are all of you so pessimistic?

What Roy has failed to realize is the huge importance of the 3-point shot. The mathematics of it are fairly simple. We all know that a basket is worth 50% more when shot from long range and that hitting 33% of your 3s is like hitting 50% of your twos. Roy does not seem to get this. His team routinely attempts less than 8 threes in a game, hitting just 2 or 3 of them. I think that puts Carolina at a distinct disadvantage when facing a team that shoots a lot of 3s.

If the first game, Carolina hit 4 more FTs and 4 more FGs than Duke. That is a 12 point advantage, enough for a quite comfortable win. But, Duke hit 14 threes to Carolina's 1, giving Duke a 1 point victory. Roy is essentially conceding one aspect of the game (3-point shooting) and counting on whupping you so bad in the other parts of the game that it will not matter. That might be fine in most circumstances, but this aspect is the one that counts for 50% more than any of the others ;)

I lay all this out there to ask the simple question -- how much better can Carolina play and how much worse can Duke play? Carolina seemed to have had one of their better games of the season in many areas. Yes, Duke can play worse, but it is not like the first game was some outlier in terms of our performance. In fact, one can make a decent argument that it was just an average game for this team. If we play a little above average or if Carolina does not play above their heads as they did the first time around, the numbers say Duke is the smart pick.

I know many of you are worried sick and think Duke's only chance to win is a close game. You feel there are decent odds we get thumped by double-digits. I am not saying that won't happen. But, I think you are letting your eyes play tricks on you to some extent. Numbers do not lie... And the numbers say Duke is very likely to win.

- - - -

-Jason "the key will be the three-- I don't want to see us abandon other attacks, but I have a hard time seeing us winning if we hit less than 35% of our 3s" Evans

hq2
03-03-2012, 02:02 PM
If the first game, Carolina hit 4 more FTs and 4 more FGs than Duke. That is a 12 point advantage, enough for a quite comfortable win. But, Duke hit 14 threes to Carolina's 1, giving Duke a 1 point victory. Roy is essentially conceding one aspect of the game (3-point shooting) and counting on whupping you so bad in the other parts of the game that it will not matter. That might be fine in most circumstances, but this aspect is the one that counts for 50% more than any of the others ;)

- - - -

-Jason "the key will be the three-- I don't want to see us abandon other attacks, but I have a hard time seeing us winning if we hit less than 35% of our 3s" Evans

Against most teams, his approach would work. Realistically, it should have worked against Duke too, but a number of factors at the end negated it. However, Roy clearly now knows that with 4 guys who are pretty good 3 point shooters, he's going to have play better D out there; the odds are clearly in our favor that one or more of them will be hot. Look for Duke to run some isolation plays for Austin if they come out and play right up on us.

BluDvlsN1
03-03-2012, 02:05 PM
Still Timeless and relevant !


2445

Dukeface88
03-03-2012, 02:11 PM
Roy clearly now knows that with 4 guys who are pretty good 3 point shooters, he's going to have play better D out there

I'd question that; UNC's defense has conceeded the 3-pointer for pretty much as long as it has existed. What makes you think it will change now when it hasn't for 25 years?

dukelifer
03-03-2012, 02:41 PM
A bunch of Duke friends, several of whom would be known on these boards, have been emailing over the past 24 hours about how pessimistic they all are about this game. I took a moment to write the following and figured I would post it here for all of you as well.

- - - -

There is the eye test... which is significant as we all trust our eyes. But, something else to consider in this game is the numbers test. It sounds silly, but I sometimes find that numbers show us things our eyes did not see.

The numbers say that Carolina played pretty darn well last game. Zeller, in the first half, and Barnes, in the second half, probably had their best halfs of the season. Henson pulled down 17 rebounds, his best game of the year on the boards. As a team, they hit almost 50% of their shots, a good shooting night for any team, and only turned the ball over 9 times.

So, how much can they expect to improve upon those numbers? Other than the fact that they did not take or hit many 3s, I see relatively few areas where Carolina can expect to play significantly better than they did in the first game. I guess Barnes and Zeller could both be "hot" and dominate in both halves... though they beat anyone if that happens and it is somewhat unreasonable to expect multiple players to have their best game of the year at the same time.

Duke, on the other hand, shot an ok but not great 43% from the field and 39% from 3point range. Sure, we could shoot worse but we could also shoot better. Neither of those FG percentages are unusually strong for this team. We got hammered on the boards by 10 and were more than a little hampered with foul trouble (TT fouled out, 2 other guys had 4, 3 other guys had 3). Of course, Duke could play worse, but it is not at all unfair to say that -- statistically -- Carolina played a little above their heads and Duke played a little below.

...and we still won.

So, why are all of you so pessimistic?

What Roy has failed to realize is the huge importance of the 3-point shot. The mathematics of it are fairly simple. We all know that a basket is worth 50% more when shot from long range and that hitting 33% of your 3s is like hitting 50% of your twos. Roy does not seem to get this. His team routinely attempts less than 8 threes in a game, hitting just 2 or 3 of them. I think that puts Carolina at a distinct disadvantage when facing a team that shoots a lot of 3s.

If the first game, Carolina hit 4 more FTs and 4 more FGs than Duke. That is a 12 point advantage, enough for a quite comfortable win. But, Duke hit 14 threes to Carolina's 1, giving Duke a 1 point victory. Roy is essentially conceding one aspect of the game (3-point shooting) and counting on whupping you so bad in the other parts of the game that it will not matter. That might be fine in most circumstances, but this aspect is the one that counts for 50% more than any of the others ;)

I lay all this out there to ask the simple question -- how much better can Carolina play and how much worse can Duke play? Carolina seemed to have had one of their better games of the season in many areas. Yes, Duke can play worse, but it is not like the first game was some outlier in terms of our performance. In fact, one can make a decent argument that it was just an average game for this team. If we play a little above average or if Carolina does not play above their heads as they did the first time around, the numbers say Duke is the smart pick.

I know many of you are worried sick and think Duke's only chance to win is a close game. You feel there are decent odds we get thumped by double-digits. I am not saying that won't happen. But, I think you are letting your eyes play tricks on you to some extent. Numbers do not lie... And the numbers say Duke is very likely to win.

- - - -

-Jason "the key will be the three-- I don't want to see us abandon other attacks, but I have a hard time seeing us winning if we hit less than 35% of our 3s" Evans

Couple this with the fact that Duke has won 5 out of the last 6 meetings- a couple by blowouts and couple come from behind wins. Except for a few notable exceptions, many Duke fans - like myself- always feel they will lose this game and UNC fans always think they will win. I am always so pleased when I am dead wrong.

JNort
03-03-2012, 02:45 PM
No long post from me this time around but I did want to say my short predictions:

1) Duke 92-81

2) This game will be closer throughout and Duke pulls away with about 7 mins to go.

3) Zeller goes back to playing for UNC again tonight :( so no tip in from him.

weezie
03-03-2012, 02:47 PM
A bunch of Duke friends, several of whom would be known on these boards, have been emailing over the past 24 hours about how pessimistic they are....



Time to find new friends!

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-03-2012, 03:25 PM
I cannot understand for the life of me why anyone would be pessimistic about our chances. Nervous? Sure. Pessimistic? I don't get it. You know, while we've been over here sweating about how so-and-so will guard marshall or the pigeon or whomever, anyone on the dark side with any sense (there are probably a couple) is over in their world sweating about guarding austin, containing seth and andre, wondering if they'll get smoked from 3pt land, hoping the plumlees and ryan won't turn out another big game, worrying about our home court advantage, fretting over top recruits being in our building, etc., etc. For gosh sake, we have more than enough going for us tonight. Positive energy people! Go Devils!

duke09hms
03-03-2012, 03:33 PM
Why be pessimistic? Simple answer: defense mechanism. If we don't build our hopes up, there's no way for them to come crashing down.

If our 3s are falling and the Plumlees/Kelly man up in the paint, we should be good.

Cell-R
03-03-2012, 03:34 PM
LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

GO TO HELL CAROLINA GO TO HELL!!!!

- Tent 93

phaedrus
03-03-2012, 03:35 PM
A bunch of Duke friends, several of whom would be known on these boards, have been emailing over the past 24 hours about how pessimistic they all are about this game. I took a moment to write the following and figured I would post it here for all of you as well.



Your post is rebutted by one simple fact: Seth Davis, stunningly, picked us to win. We're going down.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/seth_davis/03/02/Weekend.Picks/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t11_a5

dukebballcamper90-91
03-03-2012, 03:43 PM
Will the real MASON PLUMLEE please stand up.

Duvall
03-03-2012, 04:10 PM
Seth Davis, stunningly, picked us to win.

Oh well. Anything good on TV tonight?

Bluedog
03-03-2012, 04:17 PM
Karl Hess supposedly will be officiating tonight...hope the information is wrong, but I guess we'll deal with it. Not like we haven't won with Hess as an official in the past. Can't wait three more hours for this. Is is starting yet?! Go Duke! LET'S DO THIS!

dukebluesincebirth
03-03-2012, 04:29 PM
Why be pessimistic? Simple answer: defense mechanism. If we don't build our hopes up, there's no way for them to come crashing down.

I can relate to this "defense mechanism" and I hate it, but it's what I resort to sometimes to help with the extreme anxiety in the time leading up to tipoff. It only helps me up until tipoff, then I'm totally immersed in the ups and downs of the game. I sometimes wish this game didn't mean so much to me, causing me to think and act irrationally just to get through it. My stomach has been in knots all day, and I've still got 2.5 hours! Tick....tick....tick.... Time is moving SLOWLY.

Wheat/"/"/"
03-03-2012, 04:51 PM
What Roy has failed to realize is the huge importance of the 3-point shot. The mathematics of it are fairly simple. We all know that a basket is worth 50% more when shot from long range and that hitting 33% of your 3s is like hitting 50% of your twos. Roy does not seem to get this. His team routinely attempts less than 8 threes in a game, hitting just 2 or 3 of them. I think that puts Carolina at a distinct disadvantage when facing a team that shoots a lot of 3s.



Jason...your premise is off...Roy realizes the importance of the 3 pt shot, just like coach K realizes the value of scoring in the post.

The problem both coaches are having is execution of their teams particular weakness.

...and I think both teams can play much better than the last game they played.

Philsfan
03-03-2012, 05:29 PM
A Carolina friend is already whing that it will be 6 on 5 since Hess is officiating..please, guys, crush the Tarhole babies tonight!!

MChambers
03-03-2012, 05:40 PM
Karl Hess supposedly will be officiating tonight...hope the information is wrong, but I guess we'll deal with it. Not like we haven't won with Hess as an official in the past. Can't wait three more hours for this. Is is starting yet?! Go Duke! LET'S DO THIS!
Guess Jeremy Lin and Peyton Manning.

dukeballboy88
03-03-2012, 05:49 PM
Now the spread is UNC -2.5. From what I was told by someone who is in the business,(thats how I will say it) it takes 1 million bucks to swing it a half a point. So that means heavy cake is still being laid on Unc. The over and under is 154.5 down from the 163 it was in the Snooze Dome. Vegas is expecting a little more defense.

From my experience of following it, the bookie always wins. So if its a half a point envolved then it cant push the and that eliminates the bookie cleaning house so the only way the bookie wins tonight is if unc loses. Duke 81-75

Note to the Crazies or whoever is at the game, DONT STORM THE COURT WHEN WE WIN!

Son of Jarhead
03-03-2012, 06:00 PM
GTHC!!!!

Bob Green
03-03-2012, 06:01 PM
Karl Hess supposedly will be officiating tonight...

That's great news! Carolina fans are convinced Hess hates the Tar Heels.

DukieInBrasil
03-03-2012, 06:14 PM
That's great news! Carolina fans are convinced Hess hates the Tar Heels.

cuz ya can't spell T-a-r H-e-e-l without "h-a-t-e".

theAlaskanBear
03-03-2012, 06:21 PM
AHHHH, so amped up here at work.

will there be a snrubchat?

chaosmage
03-03-2012, 06:22 PM
wasn't up as of just now... unless I screwed up. Possible.

moonpie23
03-03-2012, 06:29 PM
been pretty calm all day....the worst we can do is a split with them.....

i'm starting to get a bit nervous......just ready to get it going...


no matter what happens, i love this team !! GO DUKE!!!

riverside6
03-03-2012, 06:38 PM
live tempo-based stats for the game here, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=10598

wgl1228
03-03-2012, 06:45 PM
I'm feeling its Dre Day! Let's go Duke!

Gthoma2a
03-03-2012, 06:51 PM
Man. It is hard to believe Miles is a senior. These nights are always tough. I hope it is a good senior night for him.

moonpie23
03-03-2012, 06:52 PM
that was kinda sad.......can't say enough about miles....


go duke!!!!

let's hope for more plumlee seniors

chrishoke
03-03-2012, 06:53 PM
Please, please, please.

Gthoma2a
03-03-2012, 07:09 PM
Thornton on Barnes?

graybead
03-03-2012, 07:13 PM
I cannot believe Karl Hess is officiating this game! I really wish the crazies would wear him out with some chants! I want them to make it so bad that he'll want to throw all of them out.

GO DUKE!

Gthoma2a
03-03-2012, 07:15 PM
This is not good... Embarrassing so far. We can't get in a hole like this. Let's go! Let's hit some shots!

Utley
03-03-2012, 07:16 PM
Unc has scored every possession. Have to keep our head during the onslaught and hope they regress to the mean.

SCMatt33
03-03-2012, 07:17 PM
9 straight possessions to start the games they have scored on. There's no excuse for that. Can't beat anybody that way

dairedevil
03-03-2012, 07:20 PM
Finally a bad shot by unc...surely we can find the basket at some point...

clang, clang, clang...can't take advantage of some sloppy shooting by the baby blues...:(

Gthoma2a
03-03-2012, 07:21 PM
Just one!!! Come on!!! Please tell me that this is a nightmare... Why can't we hit anything? We are one of the best shooting teams in the nation.

SCMatt33
03-03-2012, 07:23 PM
I don't get why Seth won't take it all the way. He's taken 3 awkward mid-range, low percentage shots because he's worried about the block. Take it all the way and he might get it blocked 1 or 2 times, but he'll likely get a layup or foul on the others

CLW
03-03-2012, 07:23 PM
Defense an absolute no show early and the shots aren't falling. I've never seen a Duke team that plays so.... much better on the road than at CIS.

moonpie23
03-03-2012, 07:23 PM
well, that's been awful....


ugh......someone check the rims...

Chris Randolph
03-03-2012, 07:24 PM
Fix the Rim! Fix the Rim! Fix the Rim!

We are digging a hole that will get us buried deep. If we are not careful, this might be record breaking bad

lotusland
03-03-2012, 07:32 PM
I can't find the cbs stream can anyone help?

CLW
03-03-2012, 07:33 PM
-10 already on the boards.

NM Duke Fan
03-03-2012, 07:33 PM
The game is on espn, you won't find a stream, only Game Tracker:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/gametracker/live/NCAAB_20120303_NC@DUKE

Utley
03-03-2012, 07:34 PM
Nice to see some response here but I don't think we've seen unc's best yet. They had a little lull there that we needed to take advantage of even more. Other than Ohio State this team has been at its best when it's down - maybe we have them right where we need them.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-03-2012, 07:38 PM
What will it take for us to get a rebound?

This looks really bad. I'm more worried about the rebounds than the shooting. We will eventually hit some shots, but if they continue to out-rebound us like this, we are sunk.

CLW
03-03-2012, 07:39 PM
Well we are almost down 20 now maybe they only start playing when down 20 at home.

lotusland
03-03-2012, 07:40 PM
The game is on espn, you won't find a stream, only Game Tracker:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/gametracker/live/NCAAB_20120303_NC@DUKE

Thanks I only check the DBR sched and saw CBS. Judging from the score I haven't missed anything good.

wgl1228
03-03-2012, 07:42 PM
This is ridiculous. At home and can't come it with some fire and intensity. Getting embarrassed.

SCMatt33
03-03-2012, 07:43 PM
That charge by Mason was one of the best plays I've seen so far. Guys are driving it, but are too afraid of getting blocked or charging to take it straight at the rim. As I'm typing that Mr. Jay "any bit of movement makes a block" Bilas just said that Zellers little bit of movement was ok taking a charge. Seriously though, the one huge weakness of UNC is depth. Take it straight at the rim. Not into the pain, not to the block, not to just next to the rim, but straight at the rim. They'll foul you at least some of the time. You HAVE to make them foul you, even if they draw a bunch of charges as well. Of coarse down this much, its a little late for that, and Duke has missed to many shots close in, but if we see them in Greensboro, we have to do that. For tonight though you have to bully them inside to keep from allowing easy shots and hope you get away with it while chucking at the other end. It won't work otherwise.

uh_no
03-03-2012, 07:43 PM
This is ridiculous. At home and can't come it with some fire and intensity. Getting embarrassed.

disagree....i think we were so fired up at the start of the game, that it made us miss every shot we took....it was only after we calmed down that we could settle into our offense


the lack of defense is a different story.....

NM Duke Fan
03-03-2012, 07:43 PM
You are welcome, the DBR schedule is wrong, it was switched to ESPN at some point. Mostly you are missing frustration and angst!

Chris Randolph
03-03-2012, 07:43 PM
Whenever I've watched UNC throughout out the year (just a couple times, minus the Duke matchups), I shake my head at how teams/players defend Marshall. I shake my head because they let him go left all the time and he kills people doing it. Well, I guess Duke is no different. It makes ZERO sense to me how Duke guards let him go to his left side. Baffling

SCMatt33
03-03-2012, 07:49 PM
Duke should be this far down. 3 straight possessions, you had a wide open missed jumper by Kelly, a missed front end by Curry, and a missed layup by Curry. You have to get 4-6 points out of those and Duke got 0. You can't beat merely good teams like that, let alone very good teams.

Mr.Analogy
03-03-2012, 07:50 PM
Whenever I've watched UNC throughout out the year (just a couple times, minus the Duke matchups), I shake my head at how teams/players defend Marshall. I shake my head because they let him go left all the time and he kills people doing it. Well, I guess Duke is no different. It makes ZERO sense to me how Duke guards let him go to his left side. Baffling

To add to this disaster is the fact that there are 4-5 high profile recruits in attendance to witness this

uh_no
03-03-2012, 07:51 PM
Duke should be this far down. 3 straight possessions, you had a wide open missed jumper by Kelly, a missed front end by Curry, and a missed layup by Curry. You have to get 4-6 points out of those and Duke got 0. You can't beat merely good teams like that, let alone very good teams.

you also can't give up what will probably be 50 points at half time......I think our defensive ratings this year may drop a bit......our best bet is to get them in foul trouble i think.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-03-2012, 07:51 PM
Let's hope this game gets Duke focused for March. Embarrassed at home on senior night with so much on the line.

Come on Duke, let's regain our moxie. This isn't the grit, determination, defense, rebounding, etc. that I expect from Duke and from this team. Let's make a run here and remember who we are. 32-15 rebounding is NOT what we do!

slower
03-03-2012, 07:53 PM
To add to this disaster is the fact that there are 4-5 high profile recruits in attendance to witness this

And don't think that it doesn't have SOME kind of impact on them.

g-money
03-03-2012, 07:54 PM
Wow. That was brutal. At least Miles showed up for senior night.

Mr.Analogy
03-03-2012, 07:54 PM
Let's hope this game gets Duke focused for March. Embarrassed at home on senior night with so much on the line.

Come on Duke, let's regain our moxie. This isn't the grit, determination, defense, rebounding, etc. that I expect from Duke and from this team. Let's make a run here and remember who we are. 32-15 rebounding is NOT what we do!

It's getting ugly, I don't see Duke coming back in this one. I hope I'm wrong I really do but Miles and Mason in foul danger and can't bring any rebounds down along with poor shooting and the fact that the holes are hitting everything just brings reality back in.

To lose a 'title' game on senior night in Cameron is too much, they wanted revenge and it looks like they'll get it from what I see thus far....

lotusland
03-03-2012, 07:55 PM
Yuck

moonpie23
03-03-2012, 07:57 PM
there's still another half, but the holes are having their way......

we've got to give them something to be concerned about.....scoring

hq2
03-03-2012, 07:58 PM
This team just cannot play defense and when the shots aren't falling it affects their effort/intensity even more on the defensive end.

Only prayer in the 2nd half is to just start chucking 3s and hope we win the lottery.

Wow. What a butt-kicking. They're doing everything right, and we can't hit anything. Gonna take
some kind of come back in the 2nd half to pull this out.

BlueDGal
03-03-2012, 07:58 PM
i'm feeling so bad for the students who waited for this game outside, in tents for almost 2 months......I hope these guys get it going and give them a game in the 2nd half.

DukieInBrasil
03-03-2012, 07:59 PM
that's the worst Duke basketball effort i've seen in a half.
I had a hunch UNC might come out more fired up than us, trying to win the rematch of a game they thought they should have won. I just didn't think we would play so bad. What has impressed me most is how scared everybody is when shooting in the lane, Henson's a good shot blocker but there's no reason for our guys to be shooting so weakly.

cspan37421
03-03-2012, 07:59 PM
Me: "I'd like to buy a 'D'. "
Pat Sajak: "I'm sorry, there's no 'D'."

Still a half to play. We have been, at times, a very good offensive team. But we may just be behind the 8-ball too much on this one. We'll see. But no matter what happens, stealing one in Chapel Hill was oh so sweet and nothing will take that feeling away.

CLW
03-03-2012, 07:59 PM
Allowed 52.6% shooting; -19 on the glass

Wow what an absolute stomping the 1st half was.

JBDuke
03-03-2012, 07:59 PM
Careful, folks. I know it's been a bad half to be a Duke fan, but we don't allow you to come here and vent or bash the team. If you want to criticize, at least make some attempt to do so constructively.

I've had to delete a couple of posts that crossed the line. If this continues, I'll have to start issuing infractions for destructive negativity. If you want to vent, go to snrub.com (http://snrub.com) or spme other place, but don't do it here.

jipops
03-03-2012, 07:59 PM
Getting beat by the best team in the country, and I don't think it's all that close, that includes UK.

Chris Randolph
03-03-2012, 08:01 PM
I am surprised that Duke is down by 24 and missing so many open looks but not a total shock. First of all we should have seen this coming in a sense. Based on all the struggles at home this season and big first half deficits, this type of performance is not out of the ordinary. The fact that it is senior night, UNC and for a championship makes it seem that much worse than previous ones.

When UNC wants to be, they are the 2nd best team in the country behind UK. When they choose to be aggressive in every aspect of the game they are really good. And they are doing that tonight.

My hope for the 2nd half is that we can get the final under 15 and avoid an epic beatdown. Unlike other less talented teams, UNC will not let off the gas

Duvall
03-03-2012, 08:01 PM
Getting beat by the best team in the country, and I don't think it's all that close, that includes UK.

I hope you realize that makes no sense based on the games that have actually been played this season.

lotusland
03-03-2012, 08:02 PM
Getting beat by the best team in the country, and I don't think it's all that close, that includes UK.

I thought so before the season but they haven't played at that level all year...until tonight

mgtr
03-03-2012, 08:02 PM
Agreed that we haven't played a lot of defense, but that isn't new. What is new is that we have missed at least 15 easy points which would normally have gone in. That is a problem which simply cannot persist. We need to make the baskets we can.

CameronBlue
03-03-2012, 08:03 PM
This is a lesson in what happens when you are having an off-shooting night from the field without a reliable inside game to stem the tide with high precentages shots. I don't think I've ever seen Duke this tight. Curry's shooting as tentatively as I've ever seen him. Short-arming his free throws are you kidding me? We've had the open shots but just missed terribly, many short of the rim (Curry, Kelly, Dawkins) and it's hard to understand why. I thought Duke may be vulnerable in this game but not due to a lack of confidence. Give Williams credit he has his team focused and ready to play. I thought if Duke could put some game pressure on them early, the spectre of Rivers' shot would rise up from the depths of their psyche but Duke's ragged shooting from the start has made it easy for the tools.

CLW
03-03-2012, 08:03 PM
I hope you realize that makes no sense based on the games that have actually been played this season.

I don't think UNC is the best team either. However, they EXPOSE nearly EVERY SINGLE WEAKNESS this Duke team has. Rebounding; stopping the transition; no 3-man; etc...

gotoguy
03-03-2012, 08:04 PM
I know Duke can play better than this but we have to defend the glass and get back on defense. Way too many offensive rebounds for the Heels. Mason Miles and Ryan need to step up and man up here. Our guards need to box out. Fundamental stuff. Nothin fancy. Then if we can hit a few shots we can put a little pressure on them.

Lets go Devils!

DukieInBrasil
03-03-2012, 08:05 PM
Getting beat by the best team in the country, and I don't think it's all that close, that includes UK.

yet UK beat this UNC team. How does that make UNC better than UK? not even close? no need to be hyperbolic. UNC is good, in fact very good, but quite clearly not the best and maybe not even 2nd best.

Chris Randolph
03-03-2012, 08:06 PM
If Coach K is smart, he will put Peyton Manning in. He gets 6 points everytime he scores

ncexnyc
03-03-2012, 08:06 PM
Box Out.
Bigs take the ball to the hoop with authority! No more reverse layup garbage.
Hit a couple of the wide open shots.
Make freethrows.

moonpie23
03-03-2012, 08:06 PM
well, we'd better start hitting some shots, or it's gonna be 82-50....

CajunDevil
03-03-2012, 08:08 PM
killed on the boards, absolutely miserable shooting performance, UNC has hit tough shots as well as not so tough shots... Brutal

We can come back... We just need to hit shots and defend like we are capable of and we can get back in this.

rsvman
03-03-2012, 08:08 PM
This is a lesson in what happens when you are having an off-shooting night from the field without a reliable inside game to stem the tide with high precentages shots. I don't think I've ever seen Duke this tight. Curry's shooting as tentatively as I've ever seen him. Short-arming his free throws are you kidding me? We've had the open shots but just missed terribly, many short of the rim (Curry, Kelly, Dawkins) and it's hard to understand why. I thought Duke may be vulnerable in this game but not due to a lack of confidence. Give Williams credit he has his team focused and ready to play. I thought if Duke could put some game pressure on them early, the spectre of Rivers' shot would rise up from the depths of their psyche but Duke's ragged shooting from the start has made it easy for the tools.

This.


Also, when Marshall can shoot but Curry and Dawkins can't, the universe is wildly out of whack.

It seems they make every ridiculous shot they toss up there, and I've never seen Duke miss so many shots, many of them inside of 6 feet! I'm hoping for a respectable loss at this point. I don't think you can spot the Tar Heels 22 points and expect to beat them.

CameronBlue
03-03-2012, 08:08 PM
well, we'd better start hitting some shots, or it's gonna be 82-50....

Break it down by segments, Get it to 15 points by 15 minute mark, 10 by 10...etc. The game's not over but the margin of error is non-existent.

fisheyes
03-03-2012, 08:09 PM
If Coach K is smart, he will put Peyton Manning in. He gets 6 points everytime he scores

Thanks....needed that laugh!

rthomas
03-03-2012, 08:09 PM
Our team just needs to show some heart.

SCMatt33
03-03-2012, 08:10 PM
Duke's magic number is 75. If they can hold UNC under that, I think is possible for them to go off and score 51 to get there, but even with great shooting that's about as much as I can see duke getting. For psychological reasons going forward, though, I think Duke needs to win this half by at least 10 and have a final margin under 15 to prevent any kind of carry over.

DukieInBrasil
03-03-2012, 08:10 PM
killed on the boards, absolutely miserable shooting performance, UNC has hit tough shots as well as not so tough shots... Brutal

We can come back... We just need to hit shots and defend like we are capable of and we can get back in this.

to do this, we have to do everything we didn't do in the 1st half, and then some. I don't think this team has that guy who can get everyone up and playing at their potential. Individually some players will, but it doesn't seem like a leadership-driven attribute.

lotusland
03-03-2012, 08:11 PM
Do we dare press Marshall to try to get back in it?

We need to try something different but I don't know.

gumbomoop
03-03-2012, 08:11 PM
What has impressed me most is how scared everybody is when shooting in the lane, Henson's a good shot blocker but there's no reason for our guys to be shooting so weakly.

Must drive right up and into Henson, up and into his chest and chin. Better odds at drawing foul than avoiding a block. Henson way too long, but not way strong. Too late to do this for this game, as it has to happen from the first drive.

Not too late for guards to block out in second half to good effect, but it's not their instinct, which is to ball-watch. Fundamentally bad D by small guards, who cannot outrebound taller guys, but could block out. Not their instincts, and Heels very smartly - Roy's excellent gameplan and players' excellent execution - taking advantage of this - repeat - fundamentally poor D.

Not fun for a Duke fan to watch, but Heels' play is excellent, abetted by Duke's poor D and poor shooting.

ChrisP
03-03-2012, 08:12 PM
I saw this coming a mile away (well, not this level of a beatdown, exactly, but I saw it coming). I told my brother earlier this week that I expected us to come out tight and get down big in the first half. Let's face it, Duke hasn't played all that great at home in conference this year, plus we'd already beaten UNC at their place so no one outside of Chapel Hill expected them to win and so I knew they would come out loose. When Kelly was so hot in the Wake game, I figured that would mean he wouldn't shoot well tonight and, well, like I said, I saw it coming.

Of course, I hope that we have some pride and heart in the 2nd half and make a decent showing. Right now, this is embarrassing.

_Gary
03-03-2012, 08:12 PM
This.

Also, when Marshall can shoot but Curry and Dawkins can't, the universe is wildly out of whack.

It seems they make every ridiculous shot they toss up there, and I've never seen Duke miss so many shots, many of them inside of 6 feet! I'm hoping for a respectable loss at this point. I don't think you can spot the Tar Heels 22 points and expect to beat them.

Agreed on all points. This just isn't our night - period. I had a very bad feeling going into this game, so I won't be devastated if we can't come back and win this one (and I honestly don't see that happening in any way, shape, or form). Hopefully this will help us to be loose for the ACC tourney and beyond. We certainly can't play any worse than we have in the first half of this one.

SCMatt33
03-03-2012, 08:17 PM
You won the first 4 minutes. Come back at the under 12 timeout down by 12. Chip away. Go to work.

cspan37421
03-03-2012, 08:18 PM
Our team just needs to show some heart.

I agree, heart is important, but right now, we need shooting accuracy and some D. [I have no doubt they care and are trying - their shooting is almost like a golfer's "yips"]

CLW
03-03-2012, 08:27 PM
Doesn't look like a comeback is in play tonight but either UNC took the foot off of our throats or our effort has been much better in the 2nd half (or some combination thereof)

_Gary
03-03-2012, 08:27 PM
Wow, if Henson is going to keep draining these 15+ foot jumpers... Sometimes you just have to shake your head and move on. LOL

FerryFor50
03-03-2012, 08:29 PM
This entire game is a teaching moment. Compete hard and live to play the next game!

lotusland
03-03-2012, 08:30 PM
Wow, if Henson is going to keep draining these 15+ foot jumpers... Sometimes you just have to shake your head and move on. LOL

Not to mention the left handed fade away hook and one!

SCMatt33
03-03-2012, 08:31 PM
I agree, heart is important, but right now, we need shooting accuracy and some D. [I have no doubt they care and are trying - their shooting is almost like a golfer's "yips"]

I think their D this half has been pretty good. You just have to shake you're head when Henson hits a fade away. The problem is when you're down by more than 20, you need to play perfect ball and have all the breaks go you're way. Duke's shooting 23.5% from 3. That's certainly really bad, but it's not like one of those 1-22 games. That's this teams problem. For the most part to beat good teams with size, Duke needs to shoot at least close to 40% to have a chance. In Duke's best years, they only needed to shoot 30% to have a chance, and 40% would lead to a blowout. Because of the D, that's not the case this year.

ChrisP
03-03-2012, 08:32 PM
Yeah, if Henson's gonna hit EVERYTHING he throws near the basket, it ain't our night, folks. We simply can't stop them and we haven't shown that we can score consistently, so if there is even a remote chance of winning, we've gotta get some stops. Now, it would help if the refs called even HALF of Zeller's shoves in the lower back against the Plumlees and we could get Tyler a seat next to Roy but, short of that, we're probably going down hard. :(

Fuqua's Finest
03-03-2012, 08:34 PM
Tough game tonight fellas. The mental side of basketball has taken over. Need to focus on lateral quickness and noone has it but Gbnije. He's not getting in the game so we'll take it on the chin tonight. A 2-seed in the NCAA's not bad at all.

BTW, when Kelly isn't hitting shots, he's like Dawkins. I just don't see him contributing at all on the defensive end. I love Duke basketball to death, but I've never seen a big guy try to take a charge every single time he's around the goal. The opposing guy could be 5'11 or 7'1, Kelly will never try for the block. He will always try to take the charge.

I hope we can make it respectable. I wish Dawkins would get a shot to fall. Always seems to pick the the team up.

barjwr
03-03-2012, 08:35 PM
I hope we can make it respectable. I wish Dawkins would get a shot to fall. Always seems to pick the the team up.

He's got to be in there to get a shot to fall -- looks like K's done with him tonight.

OZ
03-03-2012, 08:35 PM
killed on the boards, absolutely miserable shooting performance, UNC has hit tough shots as well as not so tough shots...



I don't think I have ever seen a team beaten so badly on the boards. It is not like we have a short team.

PSurprise
03-03-2012, 08:35 PM
Next play. Get ready for the ACCT.
Just hope nobody gets hurt tonight.

SCMatt33
03-03-2012, 08:38 PM
14 at the 8. Needs to be 8 at the under 4 TO and UNC will be feeling the pressure.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-03-2012, 08:38 PM
Next play. Get ready for the ACCT.
Just hope nobody gets hurt tonight.

I'm tormented because we are staying JUST withing the realm of a possible comeback. And this season...

Chris Randolph
03-03-2012, 08:39 PM
Making a nice push here. Good to see the fight in the players. All else fails, I think Mason should gain some MUCH NEEDED CONFIDENCE from his 2nd half performance on offense.

Still not over yet, what if....

ChrisP
03-03-2012, 08:39 PM
Ugh, these offensive rebounds are KILLING us. Carolina can just run clock and still win even if we make everything. Loving the effort in the 2nd half but...wow, seeing this just makes me shake my head at yet ANOTHER slow start. When is this team going to learn they have to bring it for a full 40 minutes? I'm guessing, since it's the last game of the regular season, that they aren't going to learn. Sad, but true, I'm afraid.

mndukie
03-03-2012, 08:40 PM
I don't mean to start a giant argument and I'm really not trying to stir things up with fellow Duke fans...

But I don't buy the effort/heart argument. I have never once watched this team and thought "man, these guys just don't care and seem to be just going through the motions." Let's call it what it is, we're a team that relies heavily on the outside shot. When they're falling this team is a very, very good team. When they're not dropping we struggle more than maybe the average team would who doesn't rely on the outside shot. Let's not confuse effort with the ball not falling through the net.

Oh yeah, as much as I hate to admit it, let's remember that we're playing a pretty high quality opponent who is playing at a pretty high level themselves.

All that said, let's work our butt off the rest of the way and maybe the law of average will help some of these shots drop.

LET'S GO DUKE!!!

ChrisP
03-03-2012, 08:48 PM
We have blown 2 huge opportunities with Seth's missed three and then Rivers missed front end of that one and one. I REALLY wish Austin would take about a half-second longer at the line and settle himself and focus. If he did, I bet he'd shoot around 85%.

lotusland
03-03-2012, 08:48 PM
Our guys are playing their hearts out to try to pull this one out. Go DUKE!

Chris Randolph
03-03-2012, 08:48 PM
Well, had our chance there. Seth misses an open 3 to cut it to 8 just under the 5 minute mark. Then Austin misses the front end of 1-and-1 30 seconds later. Two chances to get it under 10, don't. Then Marshall hits a jumper to push it back to 13 under 4. Blew that chance, bummer

SCMatt33
03-03-2012, 08:48 PM
Man, they could have had the 8 I was looking for. It's 13. Curry had that 3 clank off the back, and more painful was Austin missing the front end. Needed those.

JBDuke
03-03-2012, 08:49 PM
14 at the 8. Needs to be 8 at the under 4 TO and UNC will be feeling the pressure.

Thought we were going to get there when Seth let that 3 attempt fly. Unfortunately, not the case. Still, as another poster noted, our guys are keeping it just close enough that you think "maybe..."

CLW
03-03-2012, 08:49 PM
If we were shooting 40% from the 3 this would be a 2 point game but the lottery has been unkind tonight. Lots of wide open 3s just not falling.

FerryFor50
03-03-2012, 08:51 PM
If we were shooting 40% from the 3 this would be a 2 point game but the lottery has been unkind tonight. Lots of wide open 3s just not falling.

And I'd like 70% from the FT line...

CLW
03-03-2012, 08:52 PM
And I'd like 70% from the FT line...

True. Barring something truly bizzarre it's just not going to happen tonight due to the HORRIBLE shooting/D in the 1st half and getting killed on the boards.

Chris Randolph
03-03-2012, 08:52 PM
Check out Ryan Kelly's stat line in the box score. Ouch

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320630150

gumbomoop
03-03-2012, 08:53 PM
Several opportunities in last minute to play smart. Ball watching twice, once by Austin to fail to go for O-rebound on floor; then by whichever player watched while McAdoo ... played basketball.

uh_no
03-03-2012, 08:53 PM
Not happening tonight guys :/

on to the tournament season!

CLW
03-03-2012, 08:53 PM
LOL that sequence just summed up the night. Thornton blows a wide open layup. UNC goes down Barnes cans a 3 and gets fouled by Curry.

_Gary
03-03-2012, 08:56 PM
LOL that sequence just summed up the night. Thornton blows a wide open layup. UNC goes down Barnes cans a 3 and gets fouled by Curry.

Yep. Plus Curry had a layup rim out on him just before that as well. I was hoping we could at least get this thing to single digits, but at the end of the night the final score doesn't really matter. Next play.

Utley
03-03-2012, 08:59 PM
I don't mean to start a giant argument and I'm really not trying to stir things up with fellow Duke fans...

But I don't buy the effort/heart argument. I have never once watched this team and thought "man, these guys just don't care and seem to be just going through the motions." Let's call it what it is, we're a team that relies heavily on the outside shot. When they're falling this team is a very, very good team. When they're not dropping we struggle more than maybe the average team would who doesn't rely on the outside shot. Let's not confuse effort with the ball not falling through the net.

Oh yeah, as much as I hate to admit it, let's remember that we're playing a pretty high quality opponent who is playing at a pretty high level themselves.

All that said, let's work our butt off the rest of the way and maybe the law of average will help some of these shots drop.

LET'S GO DUKE!!!

I totally agree. This team has way overachieved - And I think heart had been a big part of it.

MCFinARL
03-03-2012, 08:59 PM
He's got to be in there to get a shot to fall -- looks like K's done with him tonight.

Yes. But why? I saw him get the ball and shoot once--he didn't hit but it was an appropriate shot to take, and heaven knows no one else was hitting. I saw some decent defensive play and no obviously terrible play. When you need to make up a big deficit and no one else is hitting, why not give him a shot? I don't get it.