Projecting ACC Seedings in the NCAAT

[-bdbd]

I thought that it might be time to start making some projections around the number of ACC teams who are going to make it to The Dance, and what sort of seedings they might garner. Also, I am providing a link from today's Washington Post comparing Duke and KA, and which will get the 4th #1 seed (after KY, Syracuse and MSU). They conclude that it is Duke in the lead for the moment.

As for how many picks get in from the ACC, I just don't see how it could be more than 6, and I could see it as few as just FOUR.
ACC locks for the tournament (and projected seeds):
(1) Duke
(2) NC@ch
(5) FSU
(7) UVA

I'm thinking 1-2 other ACC teams could make it in, depending on how things go over the next two weeks. None of these get better than an 8-seed.
Possibles:
NCSU (needs maybe 2 ACCT wins to make it in - especially in need of a signature win)
Miami (probably needs at least 3 ACCT wins to make the NCAA's)

MD or Clemson seem like extreme long-shots, and would possibly need to win the ACCT to get in.
:confused:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/post/ncaa-tournament-2012-will-kansas-or-duke-get-the-final-no-1-seed/2012/02/27/gIQAvo6zdR_blog.html?wpisrc=nl_sports

[Kedsy]

NCSU (needs maybe 2 ACCT wins to make it in - especially in need of a signature win)
Miami (probably needs at least 3 ACCT wins to make the NCAA's)

At this point, I think Miami has a much better chance of dancing than NC State does. I would estimate they only need one ACCT win while State probably needs three. Maryland and Clemson probably need four.

[Cameron]

Honestly, I'd be more inclined to say that out of Duke, Michigan State and Kansas, Duke and Kansas are in the leading positions as the three schools jockey for the two remaining No. 1 seeds. We're ranked higher than the Spartans in each of the major polls, have a better record and have beaten them -- handedly -- in a head-to-head meeting. We trail Kansas in the AP poll by a spot (Duke is #4, KU #3), but are positioned ahead of the Jayhawks in the ESPN/Coaches. Then again, we've also beaten Kansas head-to-head.

If we take care of unfinished business and win the ACC Tournament, we are a No. 1, no matter what Michigan State and Kansas do. I think it's as simple as that. If we hang an 11th ACC championship banner in Cameron in the last 14 years, the Jayhawks and Spartans will be forced to duke it out, so to speak.

[-bdbd]

At this point, I think Miami has a much better chance of dancing than NC State does. I would estimate they only need one ACCT win while State probably needs three. Maryland and Clemson probably need four.

You could be right about Miami over State, as Miami at least currently holds a higher ACCT seed. Though I'm still thinking either may need at least two ACCT wins. We'll see. Man, wouldn't that suck to only get four conference teams in; but at least our winning percentage in the NCAAT should go up this year with few/no "borderline" teams getting in, as all of the first four are quite solid and should win at least one (and more, for Duke, NC and FSU).

BTW, Duke is now #3 in the USA Today poll, followed closely by #4 KA, and then #5 MSU, and then #6 NC.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/usatpoll.htm



Current ACC standings:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/men/conferences/acc/

Standings by Conference ACC 2011 ACC Standings
ATLANTIC_COAST Conference Home Away Overall Home Away Neutral vs Top 25
.......................W L PF PA W L W L W L PF PA Streak W L W L W L W L
Duke................12 2 1057 939 5 2 7 0 25 4 2290 1982 Won 6 13 2 7 2 5 0 5 1
North Carolina....12 2 1054 915 6 1 6 1 25 4 2375 1918 Won 5 16 1 7 2 2 1 3 2
Florida State.....10 4 949 883 6 1 4 3 19 9 1949 1732 Lost 2 14 2 4 5 1 2 3 3
Virginia..............8 6 823 756 5 2 3 4 21 7 1756 1462 Lost 1 13 2 6 4 2 1 1 4
Miami (FL)..........8 6 974 918 5 2 3 4 17 10 1931 1802 Won 1 12 3 4 7 1 0 2 5
NC State............7 7 977 957 3 4 4 3 18 11 2136 1992 Lost 4 12 6 4 4 2 1 0 7
Clemson.............7 7 916 871 5 2 2 5 15 13 1808 1676 Won 2 10 5 4 7 1 1 1 3
Maryland............6 8 949 997 5 2 1 6 16 12 1911 1955 Lost 1 13 3 1 7 2 2 0 5
Virginia Tech.......4 10 844 904 3 4 1 6 15 14 1909 1806 Lost 2 11 6 3 7 1 1 1 6
Wake Forest.......4 10 849 975 3 4 1 6 13 15 1836 1952 Won 1 9 6 3 7 1 2 0 4
Georgia Tech......3 11 816 930 2 5 1 6 10 18 1709 1768 Won 1 6 8 3 8 1 2 0 4
Boston College ...3 11 799 962 3 4 0 7 8 20 1664 1918 Lost 4 7 9 0 8 1 3 1 4


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/men/conferences/acc/#ixzz1ncOOI6d6

[OZZIE4DUKE]

At this point, I think Miami has a much better chance of dancing than NC State does. I would estimate they only need one ACCT win while State probably needs three. Maryland and Clemson probably need four.


You could be right about Miami over State, as Miami at least currently holds a higher ACCT seed. Though I'm thinking either may need at least two ACCT wins.
Miami has two signature wins in the second half of the season, beating us in Cameron and FSU at home this past weekend. One win in the ACCT should easily put them in. They may not even need that Tourney win to get in, as long as they take care of busniness this week.

[Highlander]

Miami has two signature wins in the second half of the season, beating us in Cameron and FSU at home this past weekend. One win in the ACCT should easily put them in. They may not even need that Tourney win to get in, as long as they take care of busniness this week.

Only thing that would keep me from agreeing with you is the status of Reggie Johnson. If he's ruled ineligible for the remainder of the season, it could skew Miami's likelihood of getting to the big dance, especially since they are on the bubble. The fact that they got a signature win vs. Florida State without him goes a long way to making that point moot, but if they implode from here on out without him, it could be Kenyon Martin all over again, and their seed would "free fall out into nothin'."

[DUKIE V(A)]

Miami has two signature wins in the second half of the season, beating us in Cameron and FSU at home this past weekend. One win in the ACCT should easily put them in. They may not even need that Tourney win to get in, as long as they take care of busniness this week.

Someone told me that Miami Coach Jim Larranaga said what amounted to Mid-Majors (including CAA teams) have no business getting at-Large bids. Say what? I hope that is not accurate (or at least taken out of context).

[hq2]

As for how many picks get in from the ACC, I just don't see how it could be more than 6, and I could see it as few as just FOUR.
ACC locks for the tournament (and projected seeds):
(1) Duke
(2) NC@ch
(5) FSU
(7) UVA

I'm thinking 1-2 other ACC teams could make it in, depending on how things go over the next two weeks. None of these get better than an 8-seed.


I'd say we've still got a couple of weeks to see how those top positions play out; right now, I'd say they're separated by a 3 pointer at the buzzer. Still have the rematch and the Tooney to decide things. Miami might get in; they've got some quality wins. Don't see State doing it; they've consistently lost to ranked comp.

[ACCBBallFan]

I'd say we've still got a couple of weeks to see how those top positions play out; right now, I'd say they're separated by a 3 pointer at the buzzer. Still have the rematch and the Tooney to decide things. Miami might get in; they've got some quality wins. Don't see State doing it; they've consistently lost to ranked comp.I have the same 4 ACC teams at same seeds as OP but also have Miami in play in game at 12-13 seed, assuming the can beat NC State this week, albeit without Reggie Johnson.

[Dev11]

Someone told me that Miami Coach Jim Larranaga said what amounted to Mid-Majors (including CAA teams) have no business getting at-Large bids. Say what? I hope that is not accurate (or at least taken out of context).

After he went to the Final Four with an at-large mid-major 5 years ago? (By the way, speaking of games you wanted to be at, that GMU-UConn game was a gem)

That's a quote I'd like to see.

[Wander]

Miami needs to worry about beating NC State and Boston College before worrying about the conference tournament. That would put them at 10-6, which is pretty good. They did nothing out of conference though, so getting an ACC tournament victory would be helpful. Of course it all depends on what else happens elsewhere, but 11-7 in the ACC would probably be enough to just sneak in.

NC State's season died in Cameron.

[sagegrouse]

Someone told me that Miami Coach Jim Larranaga said what amounted to Mid-Majors (including CAA teams) have no business getting at-Large bids. Say what? I hope that is not accurate (or at least taken out of context).

Sounds like a dry sense of humor at work. -- sage

[CDu]

I agree with those that say Miami is ahead of NCSU right now . Miami is ahead by 10-20 spots in every computer rating system. They have a better ACC record. They have better quality wins and fewer bad losses. And Miami is getting better results in the second half of the season, whereas NC State is struggling. The only thing NC State has right now is the head to head win back in January, and Miami has a chance to fix that this week. But right now I'd say Miami is on the right side of the bubble while NC State is on the wrong side. The NCAA decision on Johnson will play a factor, but I think Miami has much less work to do than NC State.

[throatybeard]

What about the Women? (I don't want to clutter the board with a whole nother thread). Obviously Baylor and Stanford are stone cold locks, and probably Notre Dame too. But has UConn opened the door for us to get the last #1? If they were to lose in the Semis of the BET and we won the ACCT, we'd both be 27-4. Of course, they did beat us head-to-head. Does the committee look at that? Did I hear correctly that they've scrapped the "last ten games" criterion?

[Duvall]

What about the Women? (I don't want to clutter the board with a whole nother thread). Obviously Baylor and Stanford are stone cold locks, and probably Notre Dame too. But has UConn opened the door for us to get the last #1? If they were to lose in the Semis of the BET and we won the ACCT, we'd both be 27-4. Of course, they did beat us head-to-head. Does the committee look at that? Did I hear correctly that they've scrapped the "last ten games" criterion?

Hard to see Duke getting a #1 seed with their relatively low RPI. (http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa_womens_basketball_rpi)

[throatybeard]

Hard to see Duke getting a #1 seed with their relatively low RPI. (http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa_womens_basketball_rpi)

How is North Carolina all the way down at #83?

[Kedsy]

Hard to see Duke getting a #1 seed with their relatively low RPI. (http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa_womens_basketball_rpi)

Well, the Duke women's rank in the RPI is the same as the Ohio State men's rank in the RPI. If Ohio State won the Big 10 regular season (as the Duke women have), then Ohio State would still be in the conversation, wouldn't they?

[Duvall]

Well, the Duke women's rank in the RPI is the same as the Ohio State men's rank in the RPI. If Ohio State won the Big 10 regular season (as the Duke women have), then Ohio State would still be in the conversation, wouldn't they?

Not if the top four teams all had better records than Ohio State against tougher schedules, and the only team that could end up with one more loss had a double-digit win against Ohio State on Ohio State's home floor.