Football schedule finally released

[CameronBornAndBred]

2012 Duke Football Schedule (2011 Record; Bowl game)

SEPTEMBER

1 – FIU (8-5; Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl)
8 – at Stanford (11-2; Tostitos Fiesta Bowl)
15 – N.C. CENTRAL (2-9)
22 – MEMPHIS (2-10)
29 – at Wake Forest (6-7; Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl)

OCTOBER

6 – VIRGINIA (8-5; Chick-fil-A Bow)
13 – at Virginia Tech (11-3; Allstate Sugar Bowl)
20 – NORTH CAROLINA (7-6; AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl)
27 – at Florida State (9-4; Champs Sports Bowl)

NOVEMBER

3 – CLEMSON (10-4; Discover Orange Bowl)
10 – Open
17 – at Georgia Tech (8-5; Hyundai Sun Bowl)
24 – MIAMI (6-6)

Note that unc is happily in October, not during the Thanksgiving day weekend. In fact, I think that date may be Duke's homecoming weekend.
http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205387995&DB_OEM_ID=4200

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

2012 Duke Football Schedule (2011 Record; Bowl game)

SEPTEMBER

1 – FIU (8-5; Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl)
8 – at Stanford (11-2; Tostitos Fiesta Bowl)
15 – N.C. CENTRAL (2-9)
22 – MEMPHIS (2-10)
29 – at Wake Forest (6-7; Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl)

OCTOBER

6 – VIRGINIA (8-5; Chick-fil-A Bow)
13 – at Virginia Tech (11-3; Allstate Sugar Bowl)
20 – NORTH CAROLINA (7-6; AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl)
27 – at Florida State (9-4; Champs Sports Bowl)

NOVEMBER

3 – CLEMSON (10-4; Discover Orange Bowl)
10 – Open
17 – at Georgia Tech (8-5; Hyundai Sun Bowl)
24 – MIAMI (6-6)

Note that unc is happily in October, not during the Thanksgiving day weekend. In fact, I think that date may be Duke's homecoming weekend.
http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205387995&DB_OEM_ID=4200
In recent years, Homecoming was moved up into September about the time we're scheduled to play Memphis this year. It will be interesting to see which game is designated in 2012.

[NYC Duke Fan]

The last 3 games are brutal but the 3 out of conference games are not that tought at all

[CameronBornAndBred]

In recent years, Homecoming was moved up into September about the time we're scheduled to play Memphis this year. It will be interesting to see which game is designated in 2012.
I'd love it if it were for the unc game. There should be students there for the first time in eons due since they won't be at home eating turkey, and hopefully we'll have a record that will make them want to come watch the game. To have a large number of alumni in town for it would make it that much more exciting.

[nocilla]

Does NC Central count towards Bowl eligibility?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Does NC Central count towards Bowl eligibility?
As long as we win, yes. They (or the other FCS team) would not apply if we played 2 FCS opponents. Only one counts. We would have had this problem the first time we played NCCU but we blew it and lost to Richmond. That year NCCU was the second FCS team on our schedule.

[jimsumner]

Does NC Central count towards Bowl eligibility?

Yes.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

OMG. Why in the world do we play carolina in October? On that weekend? I'm going to miss the game. I'm not a happy camper, but I'll be out of town that weekend. GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

[jafarr1]

Memphis will be the homecoming game.

[Bob Green]

I'm looking forward to football season and continued improvement in the team. It is time to start thinking about enjoyable Saturday afternoons/evenings. :cool:

[uh_no]

Memphis will be the homecoming game.

probably because they know people will come out for carolina, so there's no reason to "waste" the homecoming attendance boost on a game people will go to anyway

[Highlander]

probably because they know people will come out for carolina, so there's no reason to "waste" the homecoming attendance boost on a game people will go to anyway

Also saw that Duke will play 8 teams who qualified for bowls last season, leading the league by 3 games in that category. IMO, getting to 5 wins will be a pretty impressive accomplishment against that slate of teams. I see nobody in conference that I would pick us to beat on paper, with the possible exception of finally managing to eke one out against Wake.

Playing @ FSU, @ VT, Clemson home, and Miami home is about as brutal as it gets in the ACC.

[buddy]

Playing @ FSU, @ VT, Clemson home, and Miami home is about as brutal as it gets in the ACC.[/QUOTE]

My thoughts exactly. Hard to see how to get to six with this schedule. Toughest in-conference schedule of anyone in the conference.

[uh_no]

My thoughts exactly. Hard to see how to get to six with this schedule. Toughest in-conference schedule of anyone in the conference.

how is it that this always seems to happen???

[Acymetric]

how is it that this always happens to us?

Well we can't be on our own schedule...

[hurleyfor3]

how is it that this always seems to happen???

One problem is when you're never one of the good teams, you never enjoy the benefit of not having to play yourself.

The shoe's on the other foot in the basketball world. I'm sure other teams' basketball fans complain when they have to play road games at both Duke *and* unc, for example. We never have this problem in basketball.

[SCMatt33]

As long as we win, yes. They (or the other FCS team) would not apply if we played 2 FCS opponents. Only one counts. We would have had this problem the first time we played NCCU but we blew it and lost to Richmond. That year NCCU was the second FCS team on our schedule.

I'm pretty sure that it wouldn't have mattered if we had beaten Richmond anyway. I seem to remember something about NCCU not counting because they were still transitioning to DI from DII and as such couldn't count at all for an FBS team towards bowl eligibility. Either way, they are a full DI member now and will certainly count if we win.

As for the rest of the schedule, Duke has a brutal ending. If they don't get to 6 by the time UNC leaves Wally Wade, there might not be much of a chance to get there.

[uh_no]

One problem is when you're never one of the good teams, you never enjoy the benefit of not having to play yourself.

The shoe's on the other foot in the basketball world. I'm sure other teams' basketball fans complain when they have to play road games at both Duke *and* unc, for example. We never have this problem in basketball.

That's part of it, and the other part is that one of the divisions is significantly better than the other......imagine if we could play NCSU, BC, maryland and virginia every year.....and with "juggernauts" pitt and cuse, the disparity won't be getting any better

[mkline09]

It is a word that has been used several times but Brutal. 10 out of your 12 games are against teams that were bowl eligible, though Duke did beat FIU and Miami opted to self impose a bowl ban and not go.

Still every ACC game is against a bowl eligible team from the previous year. Maybe it has happened before but I can't imagine it has happened many times. Yikes. Just got to keep getting better and play them one game at a time.

[uh_no]

It is a word that has been used several times but Brutal. 10 out of your 12 games are against teams that were bowl eligible, though Duke did beat FIU and Miami opted to self impose a bowl ban and not go.

Still every ACC game is against a bowl eligible team from the previous year. Maybe it has happened before but I can't imagine it has happened many times. Yikes. Just got to keep getting better and play them one game at a time.

Lets remember that andrew luck is no longer at stanford.....i don't know much about their program, but I was under the impression that the team was average outside him

[mkline09]

Lets remember that andrew luck is no longer at stanford.....i don't know much about their program, but I was under the impression that the team was average outside him

I think they will still be good, but I think the game should be closer. Heck Duke had a real shot of leading at half time with Luck on the field. So who knows.

But wouldn't it be Duke Football's luck if they were to get to a bowl that occurrs after 12/21/12 and the Mayans were right?

[A-Tex Devil]

Lets remember that andrew luck is no longer at stanford.....i don't know much about their program, but I was under the impression that the team was average outside him

Stanford lost a lot this year on top of Luck (they have 4 potential first rounders (Luck, DeCastro, Martin and Fleener, plus Owusu is killing it at the combine). But they have recruited really well for their style of play. There will be drop off, and they are beatable if Duke continues to improve. But they are still way more talented than Duke, and Duke has to go to the West Coast for the first time I can remember. Seriously, when was the last time Duke played a game in California?

[Bob Green]

Seriously, when was the last time Duke played a game in California?

Duke played at Southern California on 9/12/75. The Trojans won 35-7.

[duke09hms]

Regardless of the schedule, with Sean Renfree as our senior QB, this is probably our best chance in a LONG time to go bowling. If we don't make it this year . . . well patience is a virtue.

[buddy]

I don't think Duke has ever won a football game on the west coast. Would be a good year to change that.

[uh_no]

Regardless of the schedule, with Sean Renfree as our senior QB, this is probably our best chance in a LONG time to go bowling. If we don't make it this year . . . well patience is a virtue.

well....that's what we said last year, but unfortunately our offensive coordinator still has NCAA eligibility and will still call passes in the flat on 75% of downs

[OldPhiKap]

If we're gonna get out of the basement, gonna have to beat some good teams.

Practice hard, bring 'em on.

[Bob Green]

I don't think Duke has ever won a football game on the west coast. Would be a good year to change that.

Duke won 9-3 at Stanford on 10/2/71.

[Indoor66]

Duke won 9-3 at Stanford on 10/2/71.

And a wonderful, glorious win it was. Defensive back Ernie Jackson ran back an interception for the only TD of the game. Jackson was ACC POY in '71.

[throatybeard]

At least Richmond is off the slate.

[sagegrouse]

It looks to me like we have addressed our problems winning in November by reducing the number of games down to three.

sage

[Jim3k]

Duke played at Southern California on 9/12/75. The Trojans won 35-7.

Ricky Bell (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricky_Bell_%28running_back%29)'s debut as a starting RB. The two-time near Heisman winner came out of nowhere, but he was a load and broke Duke's back that night.

[CameronBornAndBred]

My predictions.

Stanford would be a long shot, but looking at the schedule I could see us with 4 wins going into October, which would be a pretty nice number.

FIU -- we beat them in Miami last year, I think we will do it again at home this year. (win)
Stanford -- We'll need luck even though they don't have Luck. (loss)
NCCU -- Just hope we don't overlook them and get sloppy. We should beat them soundly. (win)
Memphis -- I don't know much about them other than according to their record they sucked last year. (win)
Wake -- Lord it's about time we beat them. We do it this year, and carry a 3 game win streak into October. (win)

UVA -- They are a tough team, well coached, and getting better with more talent from solid recruiting. (toss-up leaning to win)
VT -- The last time we played them in Blacksburg we got shellacked. But we've played them well before. (loss)
unc -- Depending on how we did against UVA, this game could be for our 6th win. And like Wake, it's time. (win)
FSU -- In Tallahassee? Eeek. (loss)

Clemson -- Hopefully we get exciting with our offense because they are going to put points up. (loss)
GT -- In Bobby Dodd stadium, eek. (loss)
Miami -- at home, last game of season, we finally pick up our first win in November in a long, long time. (win)

Final record -- 7-5 (well 8-5 because we are going to win our bowl game)

[Olympic Fan]

My predictions.

Stanford would be a long shot, but looking at the schedule I could see us with 4 wins going into October, which would be a pretty nice number.

FIU -- we beat them in Miami last year, I think we will do it again at home this year. (win)
Stanford -- We'll need luck even though they don't have Luck. (loss)
NCCU -- Just hope we don't overlook them and get sloppy. We should beat them soundly. (win)
Memphis -- I don't know much about them other than according to their record they sucked last year. (win)
Wake -- Lord it's about time we beat them. We do it this year, and carry a 3 game win streak into October. (win)

UVA -- They are a tough team, well coached, and getting better with more talent from solid recruiting. (toss-up leaning to win)
VT -- The last time we played them in Blacksburg we got shellacked. But we've played them well before. (loss)
unc -- Depending on how we did against UVA, this game could be for our 6th win. And like Wake, it's time. (win)
FSU -- In Tallahassee? Eeek. (loss)

Clemson -- Hopefully we get exciting with our offense because they are going to put points up. (loss)
GT -- In Bobby Dodd stadium, eek. (loss)
Miami -- at home, last game of season, we finally pick up our first win in November in a long, long time. (win)

Final record -- 7-5 (well 8-5 because we are going to win our bowl game)

I love your optimism and while you are projecting the season with very optimistic glasses, I don't totally disagree with your vision.

I think it is clear that once again, our fate will be determined early. Our five most winnable games are among our first six games.

When it comes to NCCU, Memphis and FIU, WE SIMPLY CANNOT AFFORD TO STUMBLE (as we did with Richmond last year or Army the year before). Those three games have to be the core of our bid to get to six (or more) wins.

At the end of September, we should be 3-1 going to Wake Forest. That matchup has been a nightmare for us -- not because they dominate us, but because they tantatize us. The last three trips to Winston are not just games Duke could have won, they are games Duke SHOULD have won. Finally breaking the Wake jinx is the necessary ingredient to getting over the hump.

That would make Duke 4-1 with Virginia coming in to open October. In contrast to Wake, Virginia is a team that Duke has had good success against -- 3-1 under Cut and the one loss last year was with a crippled team that still nearly pulled it off. I agree that the Cavs are getting better, but this is a game Duke can and must win.

After that, it gets a lot tougher. Unfortunately, Duke doesn't get Boston College or Maryland -- the two weakest teams in the conference. We'll have to see how much the NCAA hammer hurts UNC and Miami. I agree that Stanford, Va Tech and FSU are all very tough propositions.

But I'm confident that if we can get to 5-1, that we'll come up with at least one more win to go to a bowl. If Duke is 4-2 after six, it's going to be tough, although not impossible. I think if Duke is 3-3, it's impossible.

There is not a huge margin or error. But the chance is there, if this team gets off to a good start.

[loran16]

Hey look, no Richmond on the schedule! Who else is breathing a sigh of relief?

(And yes, this is a hard schedule. Who cares. Gotta make it this year)

[CameronBornAndBred]

SI released a "post-spring" top 25, and the number of teams that we are playing on their list is scary.
Here's the teams that are on that pre-season top 25.
Stanford (14)
Clemson (16)
FSU (17)
Virginia Tech (19)
Georgia Tech (25)
Eek. That's crazy.
Sport's Illustrated post-spring top 25 http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/andy_staples/05/03/post-spring-top-25/index.html?xid=cnnbin

[mkline09]

For those interested I was intereviewed by All Sports Discussioin.com (http://www.allsportsdiscussion.com) as part of their series asking bloggers of the ACC Football programs on their thoughts on the spring game.

Here is the link to the interview if you'd be interested in reading it. Link (http://http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2012/05/03/ask-a-blogger-series-dukeblogmkline-talks-duke-spring-football/)

[devildeac]

SI released a "post-spring" top 25, and the number of teams that we are playing on their list is scary.
Here's the teams that are on that pre-season top 25.
Stanford (14)
Clemson (16)
FSU (17)
Virginia Tech (19)
Georgia Tech (25)
Eek. That's crazy.
Sport's Illustrated post-spring top 25 http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/andy_staples/05/03/post-spring-top-25/index.html?xid=cnnbin

We have been looking up the ladder for several decades of Duke FB scheduling but this year's opponents appear especially daunting.

[Reilly]

We've beaten 4 ranked teams in the last 25 years:

1989: #7 Clemson, #22 NCSU
1993: #22 NCSU
1994: #13 UVa

In 1992 we played 5 ranked teams.

In 2009 we played 4 ranked teams (6, 7, 21, 22).

You can page through the yearly schedules to see who was ranked what when we played them:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/duke/2011-schedule.html

[Bob Green]

We've beaten 4 ranked teams in the last 25 years:

1989: #7 Clemson, #22 NCSU
1993: #22 NCSU
1994: #13 UVa

So the question that jumps to my mind is, since beating #13 Virginia on Nov. 5, 1994, how many consecutive games has Duke lost to teams ranked in the Top 25? Per the link provided, the answer is 44. It sure would be nice to stop that streak in 2012.

[Reilly]

Under Cut, we're 0-8 against ranked teams.

The margins: -4, -8, -18, -28, -30, -37, -39, -49

The two close ones were home games against VT.

[BlueandWhite]

2012 Duke Football Schedule (2011 Record; Bowl game)

SEPTEMBER

1 – FIU (8-5; Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl)
8 – at Stanford (11-2; Tostitos Fiesta Bowl)
15 – N.C. CENTRAL (2-9)
22 – MEMPHIS (2-10)
29 – at Wake Forest (6-7; Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl)

OCTOBER

6 – VIRGINIA (8-5; Chick-fil-A Bow)
13 – at Virginia Tech (11-3; Allstate Sugar Bowl)
20 – NORTH CAROLINA (7-6; AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl)
27 – at Florida State (9-4; Champs Sports Bowl)

NOVEMBER

3 – CLEMSON (10-4; Discover Orange Bowl)
10 – Open
17 – at Georgia Tech (8-5; Hyundai Sun Bowl)
24 – MIAMI (6-6)

Note that unc is happily in October, not during the Thanksgiving day weekend. In fact, I think that date may be Duke's homecoming weekend.
http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205387995&DB_OEM_ID=4200


First of all....what is "Beef O'Brady's"? What is "AdvoCare V100"?

Aside from ridiculous bowl game sponsors....this schedule, particularly the way it ends, is really, really hard for Duke.

Winning at Stanford, even without Andrew Luck and other high NFL picks who have all left, will be extremely tough, not to mention the home opener. I think W's against NCCU and Memphis are likely. Then, will we finally beat Wake? And it certainly doesn't help that it's a road game. Let's be optimistic and say 3-2 in September, with a win against either FIU or Wake -- after that, the October schedule is brutal. UVA will be tough, and UNC (regardless of whether home or away, how many times have we beaten the Heels since Spurrier?), sandwiched with road games at VT and FSU -- yikes. And the November schedule -- yikes again. A 5-7 finish is probably the most optimistic scenario I can see.

Having said all this, I completely support the team in turning the corner and finishing with a winning record - but this schedule is just really tough.

[Olympic Fan]

A 5-7 finish is probably the most optimistic scenario I can see.

Well, that's just one win away from being bowl eligible, so it wouldn't take much to get over the hump.

That said, I think I can somewhat disagree with two points -- while FIU is no pushover, it is a team we beat on the road a year ago. While I don't discout their abilities, they do have to replace QB Wesley Carroll and especially WR T.Y. Hilton, who gave us fits last fall. I could be wrong, but as I remember it, the complexion of the game changed when Hilton went out with a slightly injured ankle.

I'm just saying that it's a game Duke SHOULD win and to go with the Memphis and NCCU games that Duke should win, we should be 3-1 heading for Wake Forest. Obviously, Duke hadn't been able to get over the hump against the Deacs, although we have been frustratingly close. If anything, the last three games in Winston have been closer (and more frustrating) than the last three in Durham. Twice we've lost there when our FG kicker missed a chip-shot field goal. Two years ago, the game turned when our punter dropped a perfect snap from center.

NOTHING is guaranteed in football, but at least we'll know by the Wake game whether there is any hope for not. I believe there is a reasonable change that this team gets to 4-1 with Virginia coming here. Imagine what a big weekend that would be! Virginia is not a juggernaut -- we've beaten them three of the last four years and held our own against them last year in C'ville with a badly crippled team. If we get to that point, I think 6 or 7 wins is a real possibility.

I don't blame anybody for being pessimistic about Duke football. There haven't been a lot of positives in recent years ... in recent decades even. But this is the deepest and most talented team Cutcliffe -- and Duke has had since the 1994 team. I know there are still question marks and it sucks that Duke doesn't get to play Maryland and BC, the ACC's other two weakest teams.

Still, I know it's going to turn one of these days. Maybe this year -- if it's going to happen, we'll know by the first week in October. If we get to that point and it's looking bleak, then basketball practice will be starting the next week and we can all move on to that. But until we get to that point, I beg you to give Cut and this football team a chance.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Under Cut, we're 0-8 against ranked teams.

Under Cut, under Roof, under Franks, and for the most part under Goldsmith. Fred had that one solid year when he started. I hope we (and I expect we will) beat someone before 2014, that's a 20 year record I don't want to celebrate.

[Bob Green]

Well, that's just one win away from being bowl eligible, so it wouldn't take much to get over the hump......But this is the deepest and most talented team Cutcliffe -- and Duke has had since the 1994 team. I know there are still question marks and it sucks that Duke doesn't get to play Maryland and BC, the ACC's other two weakest teams...I beg you to give Cut and this football team a chance.

I can see six wins on the schedule, but it means we have to beat everyone we are suppose to beat (FIU, NCCU, Memphis) plus win the toss-up games (Wake Forest, Virginia) and knock off a heavy favorite somewhere along the way. Coach Cutcliffe and the team deserve our support and our optimism.

[throatybeard]

I believe Beef O'Brady's is a typically awful chain restaurant. I get it confused with O'Charley's and possibly Bennigan's.

[gotoguy]

Lots of wailing and teeth gnashing about the schedule here so far. This is the ACC not the SEC west. I watched half of the Orange Bowl this year. If that's the best the ACC can offer then we're in good shape if we have any players. Time to beat Wake and Carolina and GA Tech for a change. Go Devils. And what happened to Richmond? Time to kick their butt too.

And while I'm thinking about it, perhaps we can suit up a few backcourt players from the hoops team for some nutcracker drills. Teach them a little defensive intensity after that last game performance. :)

[OldPhiKap]

If we want to be big boys, we need to play and beat big boys.

I see this more as a challenge and opportunity than a detriment.

Get 'er done.

[BlueandWhite]

Well, that's just one win away from being bowl eligible, so it wouldn't take much to get over the hump.

That said, I think I can somewhat disagree with two points -- while FIU is no pushover, it is a team we beat on the road a year ago. While I don't discout their abilities, they do have to replace QB Wesley Carroll and especially WR T.Y. Hilton, who gave us fits last fall. I could be wrong, but as I remember it, the complexion of the game changed when Hilton went out with a slightly injured ankle.

I'm just saying that it's a game Duke SHOULD win and to go with the Memphis and NCCU games that Duke should win, we should be 3-1 heading for Wake Forest. Obviously, Duke hadn't been able to get over the hump against the Deacs, although we have been frustratingly close. If anything, the last three games in Winston have been closer (and more frustrating) than the last three in Durham. Twice we've lost there when our FG kicker missed a chip-shot field goal. Two years ago, the game turned when our punter dropped a perfect snap from center.

NOTHING is guaranteed in football, but at least we'll know by the Wake game whether there is any hope for not. I believe there is a reasonable change that this team gets to 4-1 with Virginia coming here. Imagine what a big weekend that would be! Virginia is not a juggernaut -- we've beaten them three of the last four years and held our own against them last year in C'ville with a badly crippled team. If we get to that point, I think 6 or 7 wins is a real possibility.

I don't blame anybody for being pessimistic about Duke football. There haven't been a lot of positives in recent years ... in recent decades even. But this is the deepest and most talented team Cutcliffe -- and Duke has had since the 1994 team. I know there are still question marks and it sucks that Duke doesn't get to play Maryland and BC, the ACC's other two weakest teams.

Still, I know it's going to turn one of these days. Maybe this year -- if it's going to happen, we'll know by the first week in October. If we get to that point and it's looking bleak, then basketball practice will be starting the next week and we can all move on to that. But until we get to that point, I beg you to give Cut and this football team a chance.


I'm on board with you and want to see this year's team succeed...and I'll give them a chance.

Back to the previous post from Cameron Born and Bred, which I am copying below: I think this poster's scenario could very well happen (although maybe 6-6 is more likely). I would love, absolutely love, to see us beat both Wake and UNC, as any Duke fan does. We are overdue to beat both as both you and this poster point out...it's amazing (and probably doesn't need to be repeated) how many times Duke has lost to these two programs over the past two decades, and particularly the ways Duke has lost to Wake recently. If we do, I agree that we could easily be looking at a winning record going into November. The Wake and UNC games, in my mind, are the keys to how the season plays out. Even if Duke can win one of two against Wake/UNC, that would still likely build a lot of confidence moving into the really tough part of the schedule.



FIU -- we beat them in Miami last year, I think we will do it again at home this year. (win)
Stanford -- We'll need luck even though they don't have Luck. (loss)
NCCU -- Just hope we don't overlook them and get sloppy. We should beat them soundly. (win)
Memphis -- I don't know much about them other than according to their record they sucked last year. (win)
Wake -- Lord it's about time we beat them. We do it this year, and carry a 3 game win streak into October. (win)

UVA -- They are a tough team, well coached, and getting better with more talent from solid recruiting. (toss-up leaning to win)
VT -- The last time we played them in Blacksburg we got shellacked. But we've played them well before. (loss)
unc -- Depending on how we did against UVA, this game could be for our 6th win. And like Wake, it's time. (win)
FSU -- In Tallahassee? Eeek. (loss)

Clemson -- Hopefully we get exciting with our offense because they are going to put points up. (loss)
GT -- In Bobby Dodd stadium, eek. (loss)
Miami -- at home, last game of season, we finally pick up our first win in November in a long, long time. (win)

Final record -- 7-5 (well 8-5 because we are going to win our bowl game)

[-bdbd]

I like to think of schedules and predictions in terms of my old stats classes. I would put the "mean" expectation - call it the "over/under" - at about FOUR wins (maybe slightly less, around 3.75) - with a standard deviation of about two wins. IOW, I'm expecting about four, but think it would be a "reasonable" outcome to have 2 less or two more than that. That said, the MEAN expectation hasn't always been as high as four in recent decades, but given a sufficient sample size, you'd think that at least a couple times over the last twenty years we could have gotten up to the bowl-eligibility level of six, no?!? Even just by sheer lucky bounces... This year is a tough slate, but some day, in the not too distant future, Cut will be leading us to a Bowl Game.

I see NCCU and Memphis as games we'll be favored in. I see FIU and Wake as "'push" games (could go either way). UVA and UNC are close, winable expectded games. Any of the others would be considered clear upsets if we won - while anything is always possible, especially at home. My order of most-likely to least-likely upsets wins: MIA (home), GT, CLEM (home), FSU, VT, Stanford.

Given the degree of difficulty in this schedule, does that mean that we will likely get a scheduling break next year?? We need more MD and BC and maybe NCSU opportunities!


My predictions.

Stanford would be a long shot, but looking at the schedule I could see us with 4 wins going into October, which would be a pretty nice number.

FIU -- we beat them in Miami last year, I think we will do it again at home this year. (win)
Stanford -- We'll need luck even though they don't have Luck. (loss)
NCCU -- Just hope we don't overlook them and get sloppy. We should beat them soundly. (win)
Memphis -- I don't know much about them other than according to their record they sucked last year. (win)
Wake -- Lord it's about time we beat them. We do it this year, and carry a 3 game win streak into October. (win)

UVA -- They are a tough team, well coached, and getting better with more talent from solid recruiting. (toss-up leaning to win)
VT -- The last time we played them in Blacksburg we got shellacked. But we've played them well before. (loss)
unc -- Depending on how we did against UVA, this game could be for our 6th win. And like Wake, it's time. (win)
FSU -- In Tallahassee? Eeek. (loss)

Clemson -- Hopefully we get exciting with our offense because they are going to put points up. (loss)
GT -- In Bobby Dodd stadium, eek. (loss)
Miami -- at home, last game of season, we finally pick up our first win in November in a long, long time. (win)

Final record -- 7-5 (well 8-5 because we are going to win our bowl game)


SI released a "post-spring" top 25, and the number of teams that we are playing on their list is scary.
Here's the teams that are on that pre-season top 25.
Stanford (14)
Clemson (16)
FSU (17)
Virginia Tech (19)
Georgia Tech (25)
Eek. That's crazy.
Sport's Illustrated post-spring top 25 http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/andy_staples/05/03/post-spring-top-25/index.html?xid=cnnbin

[CameronBornAndBred]

Given the degree of difficulty in this schedule, does that mean that we will likely get a scheduling break next year?? We need more MD and BC and maybe NCSU opportunities!
I think the ACC, even though it blows it on the national stage with regularity, is a very strong conference and that we are in the stronger (coastal) division. So nope, we get no break unless we schedule wimpy teams, and I don't think we should. Even though I noted our tough opponents this year, and their rankings, I still am happy with my predictions. And as others have said, to be one of the big boys you have to play with them.

[Bob Green]

Featherston article linked on the front page:

http://www.accsports.com/articles/2012051312765/duke-football-spring-reviewfall-preview.php


“The biggest difference in this team, as I see it, is that we have more playmakers than we’ve had since we’ve been here on both sides of the ball,” Cutcliffe said. “You see guys flashing … everywhere.”

Is this the year Duke breaks the long drought and qualifies for a bowl game?

[devildeac]

Featherston article linked on the front page:

http://www.accsports.com/articles/2012051312765/duke-football-spring-reviewfall-preview.php



Is this the year Duke breaks the long drought and qualifies for a bowl game?

I do not think it will be this year with a pretty tough schedule home and away. But, as the saying goes, time to put on our big boy pants and win a couple of those games we shoulda/coulda/woulda won the last few years if we had less TO, more red zone TDs, made the short FGs, made that crucial 3rd and long "stop," etc. I'd be a bit more optimistic if we had any/all MD/NCSU/BC on the schedule instead of Clemson/f$u/Stanford. And I do realize Stanford is not an ACC game but the point being that games vs the ACC squads mentioned first are higher probability wins than the last 3 foes mentioned. I'm thinking 2013 is more likely a "bowling" year for us but I'd have to examine that schedule first and see how 2012 ended. Continue to love Cut's optimism though.

[Bob Green]

I'm thinking 2013 is more likely a "bowling" year for us but I'd have to examine that schedule first and see how 2012 ended. Continue to love Cut's optimism though.

I believe the fan base needs to take a "the time is now" approach. Looking ahead to 2013 is dangerous because we will be losing a lot of talent such as starters Conner Vernon, Sean Renfree, Desmond Scott, Brian Moore, Lee Butler, Walt Canty and Jordon Byas. The seniors need to lead this team to victory in 2012.

[sagegrouse]

I believe the fan base needs to take a "the time is now" approach. Looking ahead to 2013 is dangerous because we will be losing a lot of talent such as starters Conner Vernon, Sean Renfree, Desmond Scott, Brian Moore, Lee Butler, Walt Canty and Jordon Byas. The seniors need to lead this team to victory in 2012.



I agree with you, Bob. Last year was supposed to be our year, when I thought we had the best kicker in the country and the best QB in the ACC. I think Cut thought so too. That wasn't the case, and our year didn't happen.

This year we need some quality wins (and the absence of bad losses) to keep our football program on an upward path. Let's go, Duke!

sagegrouse

[devildeac]

I believe the fan base needs to take a "the time is now" approach. Looking ahead to 2013 is dangerous because we will be losing a lot of talent such as starters Conner Vernon, Sean Renfree, Desmond Scott, Brian Moore, Lee Butler, Walt Canty and Jordon Byas. The seniors need to lead this team to victory in 2012.

I really like all those guys you listed, Bob and agree those seniors should be among the leaders this year but this schedule is really a tough one. I am not looking ahead to 2013 but I'll call your leaders above and raise you with WR Crowder and Holliday (and I really, really like Vernon), QB Boone/Connette and Sirk, RB Snead/Thompson/Carter and Powell (?), a deeper, talented and more experienced OL with Simmons/Cofield/Harding(?)/Tomlinson, DB Campbell and Cockrell, the Brown twins (jk) at LB, DL Sarmiento/Foxx and Dewalt-Ondijo and TE Blakeney/Reeves and Deaver. (I think I named all non-seniors in my list.) I'll bet I overlooked a few guys that Cut is really expecting to stand out this year and next, too. Add a couple highly rating kicking specialists (and I really liked King) and I think 2013 may be a more reasonable expectation. Agree that every team should think that they are going bowling for their current year. I'll have a fine ale waiting for you at the end of the last game if we play in a post season bowl game this particular campaign ;>)) .

[Bob Green]

I'll have a fine ale waiting for you at the end of the last game if we play in a post season bowl game this particular campaign ;>)) .

Only one? Remember, you're dealing with a Sailor here so I'm going to need four or five. Refresh my memory, you're not my doctor, right? :cool:

[Duke of Nashville]

[QUOTE=CameronBornAndBred;555010]2012 Duke Football Schedule (2011 Record; Bowl game)

SEPTEMBER

1 – FIU (8-5; Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl)
8 – at Stanford (11-2; Tostitos Fiesta Bowl)
15 – N.C. CENTRAL (2-9)
22 – MEMPHIS (2-10)
29 – at Wake Forest (6-7; Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl)

OCTOBER

6 – VIRGINIA (8-5; Chick-fil-A Bow)
13 – at Virginia Tech (11-3; Allstate Sugar Bowl)
20 – NORTH CAROLINA (7-6; AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl)
27 – at Florida State (9-4; Champs Sports Bowl)

NOVEMBER

3 – CLEMSON (10-4; Discover Orange Bowl)
10 – Open
17 – at Georgia Tech (8-5; Hyundai Sun Bowl)
24 – MIAMI (6-6)


I see six wins here. But the margin of error is almost zero. We will have to have a high quality win from the ACC (something we have not had in oh, so long)

If we loose to any of these teams, our chances at a bowl are almost zero:

We have to go 3-0 against these teams.

FIU
NC Central
Memphis

We are due against these teams:

And could have beat them last year. 2-0 would be huge for a potential bowl bid.

Wake Forest
Virginia

Long Shot Wins:

We will need one. Should have beaten VTech last year.

Georgia Tech
VTech
Carolina
Miami
Stanford

Yeah, we are not going to beat these teams:

Clemson
Florida State

[jafarr1]

Last year FSU lost to Wake and UVA. Clemson got absolutely smoked by NC State.

I'm not about to put them on the should-win list, but writing those games off completely is a mistake.

[OldPhiKap]

Only one? Remember, you're dealing with a Sailor here so I'm going to need four or five. Refresh my memory, you're not my doctor, right? :cool:

"Never ask a Navy man if he'll have another drink."

[devildeac]

Only one? Remember, you're dealing with a Sailor here so I'm going to need four or five. Refresh my memory, you're not my doctor, right? :cool:

OK, I'll make it a bomber. You can have your 4 or 5 pre-game. I'll buy your nightcap. Your dad or brother will be driving, correct? And, you are correct, I am not your doctor. I just play one on TV.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Kickoff times have just been announced for the FIU game on Sept. 1 (7P) and the NCCU game on Sept. 15 (7P).:cool:
http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205428265&DB_OEM_ID=4200

We can now begin to plan for some great tailgate parties on those game days!;)

[CameronBornAndBred]

Kickoff times have just been announced for the FIU game on Sept. 1 (7P) and the NCCU game on Sept. 15 (7P).:cool:
http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205428265&DB_OEM_ID=4200

We can now begin to plan for some great tailgate parties on those game days!;)
Wooohoooo!!! I love firing up the grills at 7am for a 7pm kick...time enough for barbecue!!!!

[devildeac]

Kickoff times have just been announced for the FIU game on Sept. 1 (7P) and the NCCU game on Sept. 15 (7P).:cool:
http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205428265&DB_OEM_ID=4200

We can now begin to plan for some great tailgate parties on those game days!;)


Wooohoooo!!! I love firing up the grills at 7am for a 7pm kick...time enough for barbecue!!!!

Let's see what time Bob Green and Newton_14 arrive for those games...

2629

[awhom111]

The kickoff time and TV coverage has been announced for Duke's game at Stanford on September 8th. It will be at 10:30 pm Eastern on one of the Pac-12 networks.