Mason and the NBA

[NYC Duke Fan]

I am not an NBA Scout just a fan, but what I have seen from Mason, he is not NBA ready, which could be good news for Duke fans. Maybe the scouts see things in him right now that make them think he is. I gues he would be a power forward because he does rebound well.I guess it is easy for me to say skip the millions of dollars for a year since it is not my money !!

I never thought that Kevin Love would be as good as he is in the NBA, so my opinion isn't worth that much.

I would like to get a feel from the more knowledgable Duke fans as to Mason and the NBA.

[Matches]

Being NBA ready has little to do with whether or where he would be drafted. Mason's physical gifts are fairly obvious and will be coveted by NBA teams.

I agree that his season so far doesn't scream "NBA lottery pick" but nothing about his performance negates his potential. One college season, or even three college seasons, is a relatively small sample size for an NBA player. Players' draft stock drops when they're exposed in some way - lack of quickness, bad hands, that kind of thing. Mason has struggled at times this year but he hasn't been exposed in that kind of way.

[DukeGirl4ever]

Interesting this was posted as I just checked the Mock Drafts this morning to debate with another Duke fan that Austin was going top 10 in the draft.

NBAdraft.net currently has Mason listed as going 22nd to the 76ers. A little Collins connection here????

Anyway, I don't really watch much NBA, so I don't know if that would be a good fit for him or not. I know they are young and like to run, so maybe that could help Mason.

On a side note, Austin is no longer listed in the 2012 Mock Draft as of 2/24/12. I wonder if that's telling?
I have seen him ranked anywhere from 18-25 before. He is now listed as going 5th in 2013.

[mgtr]

I have wondered the same thing about Mason. I saw him listed as #20 at one point, and was surprised. I don't pretend to know what the NBA is looking for. Maybe it is potential, but they have to see something beyond that. Its a mystery.

[cptnflash]

I really think Mason is coming back next year, for a bunch of reasons:

1) This draft is extra-loaded because several players that could have come out last year stayed in school, at least partially due to uncertainty around the NBA lockout (Sullinger, Barnes, Henson, Zeller, Jones III, etc.). If Mason comes out this year, he's a late first rounder at best, according to all of the draft boards I've seen.

2) While he has played much better this year, he still has quite a bit of room for improvement at this level. Continued development of his back-to-the-basket game and improvement in free throw shooting are two obvious areas. If he puts together an even better senior season and the draft pool next year is a little thinner, he is likely to go higher, maybe significantly so.

3) He would get to play with Marshall, which he will (most likely) never have another opportunity to do.

4) In all likelihood he would get to be a captain, which I think matters to him given how much he has publicly expressed admiration for Kyle's leadership.

5) He added a second major this year, not the kind of thing most people do if they're anxious to be done with college.

[Bob Green]

I hope he comes back for his senior year as there is still room for lots of improvement with his game, but my perspective is as a Duke fan and my opinion on whether he is ready or not is useless. Here is what the mock drafts predict:

1. Draft Express has him going at #22: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2012/
2. NBA Draft has him going at #22: http://nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft
3. My NBA Draft has him going at #18: http://www.mynbadraft.com/2012-NBA-Mock-Draft
4. Hoops Hype has him going at #26: http://hoopshype.com/draft.htm

I took a look at the 2011 draft and the #22 pick was Kenneth Faried who is earning $1,254,720 this season. In 2010, Elliot Williams was the 22nd pick. Williams is earning $1,348,800 this season. Mason's decision will most likely hinge upon whether or not he believes he can significantly improve his draft position by returning to school. One intangible is perhaps Mason enjoys school, he is an Academic All American, and will come back for his senior season to finish his degree. Or perhaps he desires to play one season as a Blue Devil alongside his younger brother Marshall. As a Duke fan, I really hope to see Mason lacing up his sneakers in Durham for one more season, but perhaps I'm simply being selfish.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I hope he comes back for his senior year as there is still room for lots of improvement with his game, but my perspective is as a Duke fan and my opinion on whether he is ready or not is useless. Here is what the mock drafts predict:

1. Draft Express has him going at #22: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2012/
2. NBA Draft has him going at #22: http://nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft
3. My NBA Draft has him going at #18: http://www.mynbadraft.com/2012-NBA-Mock-Draft
4. Hoops Hype has him going at #26: http://hoopshype.com/draft.htm

I took a look at the 2011 draft and the #22 pick was Kenneth Faried who is earning $1,254,720 this season. In 2010, Elliot Williams was the 22nd pick. Williams is earning $1,348,800 this season. Mason's decision will most likely hinge upon whether or not he believes he can significantly improve his draft position by returning to school. One intangible is perhaps Mason enjoys school, he is an Academic All American, and will come back for his senior season to finish his degree. Or perhaps he desires to play one season as a Blue Devil alongside his younger brother Marshall. As a Duke fan, I really hope to see Mason lacing up his sneakers in Durham for one more season, but perhaps I'm simply being selfish.
I hope Mason stays, for all the reasons listed. I was talking with a "knowledgeable fan" at halftime yesterday and he was speculating that Mason was more likely to be drafted by the NDBL than the NBA at this point. He's had about a half dozen poor games recently and really needs to pick it up! I wonder if there is something physical affecting him? A nagging minor injury, perhaps?

[nobodybutDUKE]

As some have stated previously, my thoughts are purely FAN selfish. I know this is wasted breath, but I
hope and wish for the day to come again, when if a college or university invests in you, you give them
all 4 years. I am not for cutting someone's income, just being a selfish fan. You talk about high level college
ball and vastly improved NBA ball, wow! Sorry, just dreaming.

[Chicken Little]

For all the reasons listed, I think he stays as well. Too much talent in this year's draft at his position for him to make a dent in the draft or get substantial playing time in the league. If he can play his way into the lottery next year(not absurd considering the lack of bigs in next year's mock drafts), a team would have to make a substantial enough financial investment in him to warrant some minutes.

Just like the case of Kyle Singler staying and us not getting HWSNBN, I'd much rather have a senior Mason than a freshman Parker/Jeffrerson (and if we can land one of them and keep Mason, that'd be great too).

[SupaDave]

I hope he comes back for his senior year as there is still room for lots of improvement with his game, but my perspective is as a Duke fan and my opinion on whether he is ready or not is useless. Here is what the mock drafts predict:

1. Draft Express has him going at #22: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2012/
2. NBA Draft has him going at #22: http://nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft
3. My NBA Draft has him going at #18: http://www.mynbadraft.com/2012-NBA-Mock-Draft
4. Hoops Hype has him going at #26: http://hoopshype.com/draft.htm

I took a look at the 2011 draft and the #22 pick was Kenneth Faried who is earning $1,254,720 this season. In 2010, Elliot Williams was the 22nd pick. Williams is earning $1,348,800 this season. Mason's decision will most likely hinge upon whether or not he believes he can significantly improve his draft position by returning to school. One intangible is perhaps Mason enjoys school, he is an Academic All American, and will come back for his senior season to finish his degree. Or perhaps he desires to play one season as a Blue Devil alongside his younger brother Marshall. As a Duke fan, I really hope to see Mason lacing up his sneakers in Durham for one more season, but perhaps I'm simply being selfish.

Excellent post BG. I'll add to this with a few intangibles. It stands greatly in our favor that Duke has proven not to be an NBA factory even though a high percentage of our players end up in the league (the entire 2010 team flirted in some way with the NBA). This fact I'm sure hasn't been lost on Mason who will probably get to see his brother in the NBA next year (if a team doesn't get Miles in the second round they are CRAZY).

And If you don't know it by now - the Zellers and the Plumlees are pretty tight and VERY similar families. I also happen to know that both families value college degrees. The Zeller brothers are almost perfectly a year ahead of the Plumlees in most facets - a great comparison model. Please note that all of the Zeller brothers have thus far been 4 year players. Luke is in the NBDL and Miles really is his brother equal in many ways. Tyler has stayed for 5 years and is a first round lock - even after early career injuries - I'm sure Mason sees this.

And the youngest brothers? Oh well, I'll let the talented Marshall and Cody speak for themselves...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVfxvOT0jrM

[Devilsfan]

He needs to come back if for no other reason than to help his 7' little brother who wasn't ready for ACC play this year in the staffs opinion.

[gumbomoop]

Tyler has stayed for 5 years and is a first round lock - even after early career injuries - I'm sure Mason sees this.

Minor correction: Tyler is a regular 'ol 4th-year senior. He came back after injury his frosh year, and played in about a dozen games for the '09 champ Heels.

[Saratoga2]

While Mason played well and seemed to be improving early on, he has been in a slump, which I believe is more mental than physical. Just looking at the VT game, it was easy to see that he had a subpar game for all but the very end and in the OT period. He became very effective and was playing with great intensity. If he ever gets to the point where he plays with that intensity more of the time, he will be a stud. I believe it is in his best interest to return and perhaps find something in himself that will elevate his play. It would also be a great help to next years team if he does come back!

[Edouble]

While Mason played well and seemed to be improving early on, he has been in a slump, which I believe is more mental than physical. Just looking at the VT game, it was easy to see that he had a subpar game for all but the very end and in the OT period. He became very effective and was playing with great intensity. If he ever gets to the point where he plays with that intensity more of the time, he will be a stud. I believe it is in his best interest to return and perhaps find something in himself that will elevate his play. It would also be a great help to next years team if he does come back!

Funny, b/c I thought just the opposite. I noticed some pallor and weird acne on his face. I thought he was sick the last couple of games. He seemed a little frail.

[JNort]

He needs to come back if for no other reason than to help his 7' little brother who wasn't ready for ACC play this year in the staffs opinion.

Link? Could he just not play because there are 4 guys already ahead of him?

[gumbomoop]

Being NBA ready has little to do with whether or where he would be drafted. Mason's physical gifts are fairly obvious and will be coveted by NBA teams.

Players' draft stock drops when they're exposed in some way - lack of quickness, bad hands, that kind of thing. Mason has struggled at times this year but he hasn't been exposed in that kind of way.


Is it possible that Mason, our Academic All-American, sometimes thinks too much on the court and can fail to move with his natural gracefulness?


You look at him and it's easy to expect more. Now I'm beginning to wonder if he's reached his ceiling.

He's ... still only getting by with superior athleticism. His post moves are not fluid at all. His shooting touch is bulky.

These comments, taken from different threads, may symbolize the Mason-enigma. He is said to possess physical gifts, natural gracefulness, and superior athleticism. Yet Wheat reminded us a few weeks ago - correctly, IMO - that Mason isn't always fluid, and plays "bulky" at times.

Because I pay so little attention to the NBA, I can't tell whether Mason's flaws have been exposed enough to disabuse NBA teams re his potential. If NBA teams are nervous about whether Mason may have reached his ceiling, that would push him toward end of 1st round and maybe, just maybe, into 2d round. I doubt both that he has reached his ceiling, and that NBA teams believe he has, but his decision-making and general play v. BC, FSU, and most of VT game cannot have gone unnoticed. Everyone, except his upcoming opponents, earnestly wants him to get back on the promising track that marked his season.

The contrast between graceful and powerful play on the one hand, and bulky-even-blundering play on the other - seen in game after game - is striking. I'm skeptical that this enigma will be resolved one way or the other this season; and as I care about Duke's season and not the NBA, I'm resolved, or resigned, to hold on as the Mason roller coaster barrels forward. Can't complain that it hasn't been exciting.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

While Mason played well and seemed to be improving early on, he has been in a slump, which I believe is more mental than physical. Just looking at the VT game, it was easy to see that he had a subpar game for all but the very end and in the OT period. He became very effective and was playing with great intensity. If he ever gets to the point where he plays with that intensity more of the time, he will be a stud. I believe it is in his best interest to return and perhaps find something in himself that will elevate his play. It would also be a great help to next years team if he does come back!

Mason seems to miss too many close-up shots and loses the ball too often. Maybe his hands aren't strong enough. He's also not nearly as wide as most NBA 4s. He doesn't have a good outside shot and clearly needs to improve his free throw shooting. I think that Miles has progressed more recently than Mason. I'd be surprised if Mason goes into the draft this year. It appears to me that he needs another year of college play before playing against the stronger, faster and wider bodies in the NBA. Plus the good chance of being on another NCAA championship team, especially if Austin also returns to Duke.

[dukelifer]

I hope Mason stays, for all the reasons listed. I was talking with a "knowledgeable fan" at halftime yesterday and he was speculating that Mason was more likely to be drafted by the NDBL than the NBA at this point. He's had about a half dozen poor games recently and really needs to pick it up! I wonder if there is something physical affecting him? A nagging minor injury, perhaps?

I thought so as well- but other than scoring he played pretty well down the stretch yesterday- a key block or two, some tough rebounds. He would benefit from another year in college where he gets to play a lot. Other than making some cash- he won't be playing much next year in the NBA. But Mason will get better when he can focus only on basketball. He clearly is doing more than just playing at Duke. The kid is putting his time in the classroom- Academic All American is pretty impressive.

[diveonthefloor]

A lot of NBA GM's are becoming more and more wary of these kind of "he has potential" draft picks, especially regarding big men.

With the new CBA, not many teams are going to want to waste a roster spot for one of these guys to develop. And the D-league hasn't
fulfilled the promise it had to help develop these kinds of players. Yeah, once in awhile it helps, but still, nothing like a full minor league progression in pro baseball, and three year requirement for the NFL.

Mason would not be drafted high. Another year will help his stock a lot.

Along the same thought, Austin would be drafted this summer, but nowhere near as high as he would be with another year or two with K. It would be a good investment for both of them to stay next year.

Luckily, from their standpoints, their families' finances will not force them to come out early if they are not fully ready. Certainly no 1999 in store for Duke this year.

[loldevilz]

Minor correction: Tyler is a regular 'ol 4th-year senior. He came back after injury his frosh year, and played in about a dozen games for the '09 champ Heels.

There is a big difference here. Tyler is a player that doesn't have much upside. His draft status is entirely based on his basic post skills which should translate well to the NBA. Mason is entirely being drafted on potential. If he doesn't show that he is getting better fewer teams are going to draft on him. No one wants to draft a 22 year old on potential.

That being said, he really is not ready. He can play decent defense, rebound, and catch an alley oop, but he still doesn't have anything resembling a strong post game. I'm not really sure he would develop that in his last year, but Miles and Zoubek seem to have made decent senior year jumps so I don't see why Mason couldn't.

None of this may matter if he is set to graduate this year. I believe that he may have summer school/ AP credits to graduate in three years, which may have been his plan all along.

[coot]

Some very good data that gives us fans hope that Mason will stay for his senior year. Actually, lots of good reasons, not than most situations like this have been presented.

So, anyone want to take a shot (for discussion purposes) as to why he'd choose to go early.

Coot

[Bob Green]

So, anyone want to take a shot (for discussion purposes) as to why he'd choose to go early.

$1,000,000

[MCFinARL]

$1,000,000

Well, yes--and the "potential" thing. If Mason were dramatically better next year than this year, maybe he would do better in next year's draft. But if he is a predictable amount better--improved, but not transformed--he may actually lose value in the draft because he is a year older, and a year shorter on "upside."

[NSDukeFan]

Like just about everyone here, I hope that Mason stays and think that he could improve some more with another year playing for Coach K. I understand this is a strong draft this year and Mason may be able to move up if he were to stay and have the kind of year that we expect he could next year. I don't understand, however, how after a week where he didn't live up to his expectations he has all of a sudden regressed (one of my least favorite words after a disappointing performance.) I don't think that this week erases the 7 previous games where Mason had double digits in points or rebounds, or the fact that Mason was the team's most consistent player for the first 25 games of the year. If Mason does decide to enter the draft, I expect he will get picked in the first round and that a team will be happy to get a player with his athleticism, rebounding, toughness, passing skills, defensive abilities and improving post up skills. I think a lot of teams in the NBA could use one of the best big men in college basketball.

Sorry, I just thought this thread was a little too negative about a player who is having an outstanding season, scoring in double figures, though he is not usually the focus of the offense and is second in the conference in rebounding. I do not fear UNC's outstanding bigs or any opponents' inside players as Mason has played against most of the best big men in the country this year and held his own.

[UrinalCake]

As much as I hate to say it, I think Mason would be taking a big risk by coming back. If he doesn't show substantial improvement, scouts will assume he has peaked and has no more room for growth. He's done a great job this year developing that running jump hook, and his athleticism has always been there. After another year the NBA will be looking for him to establish a wider variety of post moves and something of a jump shot. And unfortunately I don't think he'll have a chance to develop those by playing out of position as a 5 at Duke.

With that said, I think getting his degree is really important to him, so he'll have to factor that in as well.

And I might sound crazy for saying this, but I actually think Miles is more draftable right now than Mason. He would fill a definite role on an NBA team as a defender, rebounder, and screener. He's got a little more size and strength than Mason and just as much athleticism. Plus he can hit an outside shot and make free throws.

[jipops]

If Mason stays mired in his current slump for the rest of the season, then he risks nothing by coming back and entering a weaker draft in '13. If he gets back to January form, has a nice game in his matchup with Zeller, and blows up in the ACCT then he could be back to being a mid-first rounder. That kind of money may be too good to turn down.

[Kedsy]

Mason seems to miss too many close-up shots and loses the ball too often.

He's shooting 56% for the season, so he doesn't miss so many shots, and he has only around two turnovers per game, so I don't agree that he "loses the ball too often." And if by that phrase you mean he doesn't hold on to rebounds, he is 27th in the nation in defensive rebound percentage (best in the ACC) and 32nd in the nation in rebounds per game (2nd in the conference), so I don't think your statement would apply there either.


Mason is entirely being drafted on potential.

Again, the guy is one of the best rebounders in the nation, and he's a double-figure scorer despite his poor free throw shooting. So, I don't think his draft status would be "entirely" based on potential at this point.

--------------------

Personally, I think the people who say Mason and/or Austin "need" to come back are talking about what they (the speakers) want and not what the players need. It's wishful thinking to the extreme. If Mason or Austin have a reasonable belief that they'll be drafted high enough to make it worthwhile, their best interests would be to leave. I'm sure their parents and the coaching staff will evaluate the situation at the proper time and determine their probable draft status, and make recommendations from there. At this point, to debate it is fruitless.

[dkball]

Well, yes--and the "potential" thing. If Mason were dramatically better next year than this year, maybe he would do better in next year's draft. But if he is a predictable amount better--improved, but not transformed--he may actually lose value in the draft because he is a year older, and a year shorter on "upside."


I really think the NBA and NCAA should do the following:

1) At the end of the year, compile all the respectable mock drafts and determine the likely draft position for each non-senior.
2) They then guarantee that player's first year salary. Let's say for example at the end of this year Mason's average mock draft position is 23. That means he would be guaranteed about $1,000,000 if he enters the draft.
3) If the player enters the draft, they get what they get paid just as they do now (i.e. wherever they are drafted).
4) If the player doesn't enter the draft and then enters in the next year, the NBA and/or NCAA would make- up the difference of any "lost" salary. So in my example, Mason stays this year and next year goes undrafted in the first round. He signs a contract to play in Europe/another NBA team/wherever for $250,000. The NBA/NCAA would then pay him the $750,000 to make up for the "loss" incurred by returning to school. Now if Mason stays in school and is drafted 23rd or higher or otherwise signs a basketball contract making $1,000,000 or more, then the NBA/NCAA pays nothing.

This is just the basic framework, there would be many other details to be worked out (do you get your highest draft position guaranteed or just the previous year, should you get paid more than the first guaranteed year, how do you account for injury, etc.) but I think something along these lines would help players, especially those with financial issues feel more secure in staying in school longer. Thoughts?

[Kedsy]

I really think the NBA and NCAA should do the following:

1) At the end of the year, compile all the respectable mock drafts and determine the likely draft position for each non-senior.
2) They then guarantee that player's first year salary. Let's say for example at the end of this year Mason's average mock draft position is 23. That means he would be guaranteed about $1,000,000 if he enters the draft.
3) If the player enters the draft, they get what they get paid just as they do now (i.e. wherever they are drafted).
4) If the player doesn't enter the draft and then enters in the next year, the NBA and/or NCAA would make- up the difference of any "lost" salary. So in my example, Mason stays this year and next year goes undrafted in the first round. He signs a contract to play in Europe/another NBA team/wherever for $250,000. The NBA/NCAA would then pay him the $750,000 to make up for the "loss" incurred by returning to school. Now if Mason stays in school and is drafted 23rd or higher or otherwise signs a basketball contract making $1,000,000 or more, then the NBA/NCAA pays nothing.

This is just the basic framework, there would be many other details to be worked out (do you get your highest draft position guaranteed or just the previous year, should you get paid more than the first guaranteed year, how do you account for injury, etc.) but I think something along these lines would help players, especially those with financial issues feel more secure in staying in school longer. Thoughts?

Why would the NBA and/or NCAA wish to keep the kids in school? Both organizations are pretty healthy financially, so I guess I don't understand what you think their motivation would be to implement your plan?

[m g]

Thoughts?

good thing you're not in charge

[hq2]

As much as I hate to say it, I think Mason would be taking a big risk by coming back. If he doesn't show substantial improvement, scouts will assume he has peaked and has no more room for growth. He's done a great job this year developing that running jump hook, and his athleticism has always been there. After another year the NBA will be looking for him to establish a wider variety of post moves and something of a jump shot. And unfortunately I don't think he'll have a chance to develop those by playing out of position as a 5 at Duke.

That probably gets it right. The NBA drafts on improvement as well as potential. If a player has been around a while and hasn't
gotten that much better, (see Kyle Singler) their draft position can actually drop as the NBA has concluded that there isn't much
more upside to them. Even though Mason's game would benefit from another year at Duke, he probably won't improve enough to
raise his draft position a lot. Better off to go now while he's still a mid-late first rounder.

[dukeballboy88]

I think Mason will be a better player in the NBA. If he fell to Lob City or a team that plays like they do, he would fit right in. All he would have to do is run the floor, fill the lane and catch the oop wich we all know he can do that.

I love him at Duke and hope he stays but I would at least throw my name in the hat. He can make a roster and log good minutes for an NBA team.

[superdave]

Here's the top reasons why Mason should and will go pro after this season:

Mason was born March 5, 1990. He will be 22 next week. If he stays at Duke another year, he will be 23 when he enters the NBA. That would be counter to his long-term financial interests as he would be playing an extra year of ball for free rather than getting paid. As Kobe said recently, you only have so many jumps in your knees. Better to get paid for them than not.

Scouts know who is Mason is. They see he has improved his jump hook and is a pretty good passer and a really good athlete who utilizes his athleticism to block shots and rebound. They know his short-comings are jump-shooting and a 2nd go to move in the post. Neither his strengths and weaknesses are likely to change considerably with a 4th year at Duke.

Mason's draft status is most likely set for this year at below 15 but still in the first round. He's likely to go in the 20-25 range in my opinion. If he comes back for a senior season with a roster that will be substantially similar, Mason is unlikely to be featured more in the offense than he is now. His rebounding stats are really good, but his likely scoring trajectory would put him averaging in the 12-13 points per game range, which is marginally better than this season.

If anyone thinks Mason would average more than 20 points per game for Duke next year and has a legitimate argument as to why then I challenge them to bring it. A 20 and 10 season next year would likely vault Mason into the 14-16 pick range. Mason will not leapfrog the elite prospects and is unlikely to average 20 and 10.

The downside to coming back for a senior season is what we saw with Kyle. He had a big 3-point shooting slump his senior year and that was one of the skills where scouts viewed Singler fitting into the NBA the best and he fell into the 2nd round. Had he left after being Final Four MOP, he would have most likely been a 1st round pick. If Mason is projected as a 1st round pick, he should want to lock in that status by going pro. The downside of having a lackluster senior season outweighs the upside of having a (unlikely) monster senior season.

Nolan made a significant leap from his sophomore to junior season, and another one from his junior to senior season. Part of that was Kyrie getting injured put the ball in Nolan's hands all the time. Mason will not have such an opportunity given his center position and the depth on the roster.

Finally, Mason's game is more tailor made for the NBA than for Duke. He is a great run and jump big man, but that's not really Duke's system. The NBA lane is wider, they run more pick and rolls and the spacing that goes with that will mean more lobs and dunks for Mason. His ability to rebound and protect the rim and finish with dunks means he will stick around the league for a long time. He will probably never start for a contender, but he will be a great energy guy off the bench and will make a team's rotation.

I think he will go pro and I think he should. Most importantly we should all support unconditionally.

[roywhite]

Here's the top reasons why Mason should and will go pro after this season:

Mason was born March 5, 1990. He will be 22 next week. If he stays at Duke another year, he will be 23 when he enters the NBA. That would be counter to his long-term financial interests as he would be playing an extra year of ball for free rather than getting paid. As Kobe said recently, you only have so many jumps in your knees. Better to get paid for them than not.

Scouts know who is Mason is. They see he has improved his jump hook and is a pretty good passer and a really good athlete who utilizes his athleticism to block shots and rebound. They know his short-comings are jump-shooting and a 2nd go to move in the post. Neither his strengths and weaknesses are likely to change considerably with a 4th year at Duke.

Mason's draft status is most likely set for this year at below 15 but still in the first round. He's likely to go in the 20-25 range in my opinion. If he comes back for a senior season with a roster that will be substantially similar, Mason is unlikely to be featured more in the offense than he is now. His rebounding stats are really good, but his likely scoring trajectory would put him averaging in the 12-13 points per game range, which is marginally better than this season.

If anyone thinks Mason would average more than 20 points per game for Duke next year and has a legitimate argument as to why then I challenge them to bring it. A 20 and 10 season next year would likely vault Mason into the 14-16 pick range. Mason will not leapfrog the elite prospects and is unlikely to average 20 and 10.

The downside to coming back for a senior season is what we saw with Kyle. He had a big 3-point shooting slump his senior year and that was one of the skills where scouts viewed Singler fitting into the NBA the best and he fell into the 2nd round. Had he left after being Final Four MOP, he would have most likely been a 1st round pick. If Mason is projected as a 1st round pick, he should want to lock in that status by going pro. The downside of having a lackluster senior season outweighs the upside of having a (unlikely) monster senior season.

Nolan made a significant leap from his sophomore to junior season, and another one from his junior to senior season. Part of that was Kyrie getting injured put the ball in Nolan's hands all the time. Mason will not have such an opportunity given his center position and the depth on the roster.

Finally, Mason's game is more tailor made for the NBA than for Duke. He is a great run and jump big man, but that's not really Duke's system. The NBA lane is wider, they run more pick and rolls and the spacing that goes with that will mean more lobs and dunks for Mason. His ability to rebound and protect the rim and finish with dunks means he will stick around the league for a long time. He will probably never start for a contender, but he will be a great energy guy off the bench and will make a team's rotation.

I think he will go pro and I think he should. Most importantly we should all support unconditionally.

Reasonable points, and I certainly will support Mason.

However, you failed to list arguments in favor of his return, which is IMO also a reasonable choice for him.
The main argument for his return is quite simply if he wants to come back, and complete his Duke experience with a 4th year of athletics, academics, and relationships.
Should he reach that decision, I would hope you and other Duke fans would support that course of action also.

[DukieInBrasil]

As much as I hate to say it, I think Mason would be taking a big risk by coming back. If he doesn't show substantial improvement, scouts will assume he has peaked and has no more room for growth. He's done a great job this year developing that running jump hook, and his athleticism has always been there. After another year the NBA will be looking for him to establish a wider variety of post moves and something of a jump shot. And unfortunately I don't think he'll have a chance to develop those by playing out of position as a 5 at Duke.


Well, from last year to this year Mason has substantially improved his offensive repertoire, seeing as how he had no offensive moves before and now he has a solid hook shot arsenal, left, right, running, stationary. Occasionally he breaks out a little up and under move, too. I'm not sure why you would assume that Mason won't develop (at least) one more solid offensive move during the off-season, since that is exactly what he did from last year to this year.

As far as playing the 5, Duke has 7'0 MP3 on next year's roster, and he will mos def play the 5, when he plays. I'm not saying that MP3 will play 30mpg, but it's not like MP2 will be forced to play the 5 all the time if he returns for next year. Plus MP2 plays the 5 quite a bit this year, and has still been able to develop his game.

All in all, i think there could be a significant amount of improvement in MP2s game from this year to next. If he shows that and the draft situation remains crowded in '12 and open in '13, there could be ample benefit by him staying, should he choose to.

[miramar]

The downside to coming back for a senior season is what we saw with Kyle. He had a big 3-point shooting slump his senior year and that was one of the skills where scouts viewed Singler fitting into the NBA the best and he fell into the 2nd round. Had he left after being Final Four MOP, he would have most likely been a 1st round pick. If Mason is projected as a 1st round pick, he should want to lock in that status by going pro. The downside of having a lackluster senior season outweighs the upside of having a (unlikely) monster senior season.


I certainly can't argue, and I will obviously support Mason's decision either way, but just a short comment on this section.

Sometimes college players will have a tough season with their outside shooting, including (surprisingly enough) Reggie Miller during his senior year at UCLA. That was the first year with the college three pointer, IIRC, and everybody figured that Miller would have an incredible year, but instead he struggled.

Big men, on the other hand, usually get better with one more year of college ball. I would expect that Mason would continue to improve in all areas, although that would only be one factor in his final decision.

No matter what, all Mason has to do is to listen to Kyle's wise words before Madrid beat Barcelona in the King's Cup final:

Singler: "Para ganar tenemos que fijarnos en nuestro juego y hacer una buena defensa."

If Mason plays his game and plays good D he will do great.

[devildeac]

I certainly can't argue, and I will obviously support Mason's decision either way, but just a short comment on this section.

Sometimes college players will have a tough season with their outside shooting, including (surprisingly enough) Reggie Miller during his senior year at UCLA. That was the first year with the college three pointer, IIRC, and everybody figured that Miller would have an incredible year, but instead he struggled.

Big men, on the other hand, usually get better with one more year of college ball. I would expect that Mason would continue to improve in all areas, although that would only be one factor in his final decision.

No matter what, all Mason has to do is to listen to Kyle's wise words before Madrid beat Barcelona in the King's Cup final:

Singler: "Para ganar tenemos que fijarnos en nuestro juego y hacer una buena defensa."

If Mason plays his game and plays good D he will do great.

I don't remember much Spanish from my high school years but I'll guess, loosely translated, that means Go To Hell, carolina, Go To Hell! (winks slyly)

[DukieInBrasil]

I don't remember much Spanish from my high school years but I'll guess, loosely translated, that means Go To Hell, carolina, Go To Hell! (winks slyly)

Translation: "to win we need to focus on our game and make (play) good defense".
The Va al Infierno, Carolina, Vayase al Diablo!!!! was the next line, which was not quoted. ;)

[gumbomoop]

... [1] why Mason should and will go pro after this season:

Scouts know ... his [2] short-comings are jump-shooting and a 2nd go to move in the post. Neither his strengths and weaknesses are likely to [3] change considerably with a 4th year at Duke.

He's likely to go in the 20-25 range in my opinion. If he comes back for a senior season with a [4] roster that will be substantially similar, Mason is unlikely to be featured more in the offense than he is now.

If anyone thinks Mason would average [5] more than 20 points per game for Duke next year and has a legitimate argument as to why then I challenge them to bring it. [6] A 20 and 10 season next year would likely vault Mason into the 14-16 pick range. Mason will not leapfrog the elite prospects and is unlikely to average 20 and 10.

I think superdave's post is mostly excellent, and I agree with much of the detailed argument presented. I've excerpted some points to add some considerations, most of which suggest things are a little less certain than superdave asserts.

Despite what follows below, I lean solidly [perhaps oxymoronic, or mono-moronic] in the direction of superdave's [1]. I'll guess Mason does leave, and should leave.

Probably. But.

[2] IMO, Mason's footwork is a noticeable weakness. Have scouts noticed this, too? Am I mistaken that this is a weakness?

[3] If his footwork needs substantial improvement, well, he surely could do that in a 4th year. And, perhaps unlike superdave, I'm convinced that improved footwork would significantly enhance the several strengths he already demonstrates. Better footwork would make him a far more confident and fluid player on O.

[4] Roster similarity, yes, but with one certain big exception, and a second possible. (a) Miles leaves, and were Mason to return, he'd be the main, main big. [If Mason leaves, Marshall will have to play maybe 15-18 mpg; if Mason returns, that goes down to 10-12 mpg for Marshall.] And (b) if Austin leaves, Mason - one would hope - would emerge to join Seth as a go-to guy.

Which leads to [5], which I think is an unnecessary straw-man in superdave's otherwise very well-argued presentation. Even discounting the extra-unnecessay "more than," I'm skeptical that most Mason-should-return posters think he'd have [6] a 20/10 season. Yes, that would move his draft stock way up. But more reasonably we might hope - and if he decides to return, Mason must be thinking - he could have a 15/11 season. That, too, would surely move him up somewhat in the draft.

One final issue: Mason needs to play well the rest of this season, or he risks being a borderline 1st-rounder, and therefore risks dropping to the second round. Right? Seems right.....

Although I think superdave has downplayed or neglected a couple of considerations, I find the argument otherwise sound and persuasive, and so would guess that, having improved substantially, he [superdave?? No, Mason.....] will leave with K's, and EK posters', blessing.

[superdave]

Reasonable points, and I certainly will support Mason.

However, you failed to list arguments in favor of his return, which is IMO also a reasonable choice for him.
The main argument for his return is quite simply if he wants to come back, and complete his Duke experience with a 4th year of athletics, academics, and relationships.
Should he reach that decision, I would hope you and other Duke fans would support that course of action also.

Absolutely. I think this would be the #1 reason Mason would want to come back - he loves Duke and wants to win a title. There's not a better reason in the world to stay in school. But that's a largely emotional reason and I think the straight-up, calculated, self-interested decision suggests going pro.

I made a substantially similar argument as to why Hansborough should go pro after his sophomore and junior seasons, and he stayed for what it's worth.

[superdave]

I think superdave's post is mostly excellent, and I agree with much of the detailed argument presented. I've excerpted some points to add some considerations, most of which suggest things are a little less certain than superdave asserts.

Despite what follows below, I lean solidly [perhaps oxymoronic, or mono-moronic] in the direction of superdave's [1]. I'll guess Mason does leave, and should leave.

Probably. But.

[2] IMO, Mason's footwork is a noticeable weakness. Have scouts noticed this, too? Am I mistaken that this is a weakness?

[3] If his footwork needs substantial improvement, well, he surely could do that in a 4th year. And, perhaps unlike superdave, I'm convinced that improved footwork would significantly enhance the several strengths he already demonstrates. Better footwork would make him a far more confident and fluid player on O.

[4] Roster similarity, yes, but with one certain big exception, and a second possible. (a) Miles leaves, and were Mason to return, he'd be the main, main big. [If Mason leaves, Marshall will have to play maybe 15-18 mpg; if Mason returns, that goes down to 10-12 mpg for Marshall.] And (b) if Austin leaves, Mason - one would hope - would emerge to join Seth as a go-to guy.

Which leads to [5], which I think is an unnecessary straw-man in superdave's otherwise very well-argued presentation. Even discounting the extra-unnecessay "more than," I'm skeptical that most Mason-should-return posters think he'd have [6] a 20/10 season. Yes, that would move his draft stock way up. But more reasonably we might hope - and if he decides to return, Mason must be thinking - he could have a 15/11 season. That, too, would surely move him up somewhat in the draft.

One final issue: Mason needs to play well the rest of this season, or he risks being a borderline 1st-rounder, and therefore risks dropping to the second round. Right? Seems right.....

Although I think superdave has downplayed or neglected a couple of considerations, I find the argument otherwise sound and persuasive, and so would guess that, having improved substantially, he [superdave?? No, Mason.....] will leave with K's, and EK posters', blessing.

A couple of general questions in response -

Would Mason be a better basketball player on May 1, 2013 by playing his senior season at Duke or his rookie season mostly sitting the bench for an NBA team? This includes working on footwork, developing a jumper and a drop-step.

Does Austin's decision factor into what Mason does? (not really sure why it would;also Sulaimon will play an Austin-type role next year)

Would another 12-10 season hurt Mason? Would a 13-11 or 15-11 season improve Mason's draft status into the teens?

Also, some very knowledgeable posters stated at the beginning of the season the coaching staff expects both Mason and Austin to go pro. Has anything over the course of the season changed that view?

I think there's a great argument that Mason can improve more on an NBA bench practicing against better big men, with no restrictions on practice that you have in college, than spending a 4th year in the Duke system running the same plays. He's gotten pretty good at what Duke does, but I do think he's good enough at it to suggest it could be time to learn a new system.

If you tried to predict what Mason's senior season would look like, I think the best way to get a consensus would be to use a range. I'd argue 12.5 to 15.0 points and 10-12 rebounds. Even at the high end of what is likely - a 15 and 12 season - Mason probably would not move much higher than 20th in the draft. He's a pretty well-known commodity at this point.

[Matches]

[3] If his footwork needs substantial improvement, well, he surely could do that in a 4th year. And, perhaps unlike superdave, I'm convinced that improved footwork would significantly enhance the several strengths he already demonstrates. Better footwork would make him a far more confident and fluid player on O.


A fair point - but who's to say he won't improve that footwork as an NBA rookie and get paid for it? Sometimes I think we make the assumption that a player will improve more in college than he will as a pro, and I don't think it's accurate in a lot of cases. There's something to be said for playing and practicing against the world's best basketball players (and also: the Washington Wizards) day in and day out.

Might spending that year in college and demonstrating improved footwork translate into improved draft position (and therefore a better contract)? Possible. Tough to say - it's definitely a decision that comes with a lot of risk.

Ultimately no one can really evaluate the emotional side of it (which is certainly valid) except Mason himself. If he wants to be at Duke for another year, I'm sure we'd all welcome him back.

[gumbomoop]

Even at the high end of what is likely - a 15 and 12 season - Mason probably would not move much higher than 20th in the draft. He's a pretty well-known commodity at this point.

Good responses. I repeat that I don't know the NBA. Which probably explains my slight surprise at this particular point.

I agree that 15/12 is high end, esp on the rbds. Strikes me that to reach this high end, Mason would be a more polished player, an improved player, and more than marginally so. If it would require noticeable improvement to reach this high end, and if he reached it, he still would no way get to, say, 13-15 in draft?

Not arguing, as, again, I just don't follow draft, NBA, etc.

[jv001]

Mason could help his draft position by developing a midrange shot. But with his free throw shooting woes, I don't know if he can. A bank shot would probably be his best shot because it doesn't take as much finese. Mason has tremendous ability but has yet to reach the elite level of play required for a lottery pick. Do the NBA guys go on potential? I don't know. GoDuke!

[Dukehky]

I have a gut feeling that he's gone. Same type I had about Kyrie and Gerald (I'm a pessimist). It's better to just expect them to leave and be pleasantly surprised if they stay. That being said, he's just not that good. I feel like McRoberts had more upside than Mason and he went second round. Mason can bull people around in college, and especially the ACC for the most part, but in the pros his lack of ball skills is going to get exposed. Well no it won't, because he'll sit on the bench for the first 5 years of his career until he can make a 10 foot jumper.

It pains me to think that next year's front line could be Kelly and Hairston, with Marshall coming in, I'm talking level 10 pain.

[UrinalCake]

I really think the NBA and NCAA should do the following... Thoughts?

Where would all of this money come from? The schools themselves? Some pool of money that the NCAA gets from TV contracts? The NCAA has a lot of money but shelling out a million bucks is a tall order. They're not really going to make any more money because an elite player comes back; March Madness is as popular as ever even with all of the early departures. And would it be fair for the NCAA to constantly be giving money to players from, say, Kentucky, while smaller schools never receive a piece of that pie?

As an alternative, I would propose a system where a player can get drafted and then still return to school. The team that drafts him will retain his rights when he does come out, and he'll still get paid according to that draft position. This way he has the security of knowing his place is set, but he can still come back and improve his game, get his degree, etc. I know the NCAA would never approve this because you'd essentially have a professional athlete playing for a college, but if he doesn't receive any money then in theory this could work.

[UrinalCake]

I'm not sure why you would assume that Mason won't develop (at least) one more solid offensive move during the off-season, since that is exactly what he did from last year to this year.... i think there could be a significant amount of improvement in MP2s game from this year to next. If he shows that and the draft situation remains crowded in '12 and open in '13, there could be ample benefit by him staying, should he choose to.

I absolutely think he can improve, my question is whether he will improve ENOUGH to justify staying. And the skills he'll need to develop in order to play as an NBA 4 - namely jump shooting and defending farther away from the basket - are not things I think he'll be able to develop much at Duke. It's nobody's fault, it's just the system we run and the roster we have. Good point about Marshall playing the 5 though; if they're both on the floor then Mason would in fact get to play his more natural 4 position.

I definitely support him either way, as I think we all do. And I would be ecstatic if he came back. I would choose him coming back over us getting any of the recruits that we're still waiting on (not saying that they're exclusive, just saying that's how much I think our team needs him). But what I'm discussing in this thread is what I think would be best for him regarding his draft status and NBA potential.

Don't forget that he has the option of entering his name and then pulling out. It's almost guaranteed that he's going to do this as it costs him nothing and it will at the least give him an idea of what he needs to work on if he comes back.


Also, regarding Kyle, it is true that his stock slipped by staying another year. I think it only slipped a little, while others think it slipped a lot, but that's beside the point. Even though he slipped, that doesn't necessarily mean it was the wrong decision. Only Kyle could tell you if he regrets staying, or if it was worth it to him to get a degree, enjoy his senior year, and position himself among the all-time Duke leaders and numerous categories. And whatever he says may not be the same for Mason.

[superdave]

I have a gut feeling that he's gone. Same type I had about Kyrie and Gerald (I'm a pessimist). It's better to just expect them to leave and be pleasantly surprised if they stay. That being said, he's just not that good. I feel like McRoberts had more upside than Mason and he went second round. Mason can bull people around in college, and especially the ACC for the most part, but in the pros his lack of ball skills is going to get exposed. Well no it won't, because he'll sit on the bench for the first 5 years of his career until he can make a 10 foot jumper.

It pains me to think that next year's front line could be Kelly and Hairston, with Marshall coming in, I'm talking level 10 pain.

Duuuude. You sound really depressed. We're 25-4 and in a fight for the ACC regular season title and a #1 seed.

Marshall and Josh will be solid rotation players for us at the 5 and 4. Ryan Kelly could wind up being the conference player of the year next year and is a matchup problem for every big man in the country. Alex Murphy seems like he has a great shot at starting at the 4 and being pretty good out of the gate. Also, we may be getting Amile and/or Tony.

All this and we have not even discussed our immense riches in the backcourt with or without Austin.

One of the great things about college is seeing a kid grow and move on to bigger and better things. It's a good thing!

[Des Esseintes]

It pains me to think that next year's front line could be Kelly and Hairston, with Marshall coming in, I'm talking level 10 pain.

Level 10 pain, huh. So, just curious here, what will your pain level be on the day we don't have a preseason top 10 squad? Because that won't be next year.

[jv001]

I have a gut feeling that he's gone. Same type I had about Kyrie and Gerald (I'm a pessimist). It's better to just expect them to leave and be pleasantly surprised if they stay. That being said, he's just not that good. I feel like McRoberts had more upside than Mason and he went second round. Mason can bull people around in college, and especially the ACC for the most part, but in the pros his lack of ball skills is going to get exposed. Well no it won't, because he'll sit on the bench for the first 5 years of his career until he can make a 10 foot jumper.

It pains me to think that next year's front line could be Kelly and Hairston, with Marshall coming in, I'm talking level 10 pain.

Let's see you don't think Mason is "just not that good", but you are talking about level 10 pain next year with Kelly, Haiston and Marshall. Mason must mean more to you than you let on. It could be that Mason has taken a step back because of a health issue. Sometimes Coach K doesn't let the world know about injuries and other issues. I just don't get it that true Duke fans can talk trash about their own players. If this was IC, I could understand. GoDuke!

[superdave]

Don't forget that he has the option of entering his name and then pulling out. It's almost guaranteed that he's going to do this as it costs him nothing and it will at the least give him an idea of what he needs to work on if he comes back.


I seriously doubt with the information available to him and the connections that Coach K has that Mason will enter the draft and withdraw. He'll know where he stands before making any decision. Also, the entry date is April 29 and the withdrawal date is May 8. That is practically worthless. The only upside to that period is he'd be able to go work out for teams.

I just checked and the Portsmouth Invitational is April 11-14 this year. But if Mason can sniff the first round, he's not going to this. So I'm guessing that the short declare-withdraw window would only allow Mason to have direct contact with scouts and teams. But Coach K and Perky can do that on his behalf to better effect. Perky could call Doc Rivers, Billy King and Doug Collins without too much trouble and get a good consensus.

[Jderf]

Personally, I think the people who say Mason and/or Austin "need" to come back are talking about what they (the speakers) want and not what the players need. It's wishful thinking to the extreme.

Hate to call you out in any way, Kedsy, as I enjoyed the majority of this post (and your posts in general), but I do think that you're a bit off here. There a lot of posts in this thread that make a strong case in both directions; and projecting an implicit, subconsious, or psychological motive is, in my opinion, unfair to posts which are actually very thoughtful and well-reasoned.

------------------------------

And now that I have criticized someone for projecting subconsious psychological motives onto others, I am now going to do the exact same thing. What a hypocrite!

When I think about Mason's draft potential, I can't help but wonder if Duke's popular perception as a "soft" big-man school (which I personally disagree with 100%) might work against him. Even if NBA scouts say they are unaffected by it, I fear that, on some subconsious level (there it is!), it does get taken into account. I see it as a disadvantage, albeit a minor one, that all of our current bigs might have to overcome when they eventually enter their names into the draft. Hopefully, if they are worried about it all, it will only function to motivate them to work even harder than they already do. And, of course, I mostly hope that I'm way off the mark.

[superdave]

I think scouts will probably compare Mason's game to Joakim Noah. He's more athletic than Noah but has lesser defensive instincts. The similarities are high energy, willingness to hit the boards and set picks, limited offensive moves, and good use of body and athleticism to rebound and block shots.

Noah is 6'11' and 235 while Mason is 6'10'' and 235. Noah probably has a wider frame and Mason probably has stronger legs.

Noah had a similar freshman year to Mason - played every game but in limited minutes. The difference is Noah jumped his sophomore year to 14 and 7 then averaged 12 and 8 his junior year. Mason has instead gone from 7 and 8 last year to 10 and 10 this year roughly.

In my opinion (which wont get you a cup of coffee) Mason would be a backup center in the league as opposed to a 4. He's strong enough, tall enough and jumps well enough to play center, but he'd need a consistent jumper to play the 4 and that's not in his game right now.

My assumption about his draft status is scouts know what he brings to the table but they doubt there's much upside to him than a good run-jump athlete who hits the boards really hard but has limited offensive potential. He would not be as good as Noah, but he would be a solid backup playing 15-20 minutes per game.

In comparison McRoberts is averaging 2 and 3 in 13 minutes a game, but has not played every game for the Lakers this season. He is more skilled than Mason and more instinctive but not as hard a worker.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

The biggest thing Mason could do to help his low post game would be to actually set up properly in the low post.

He needs to beat the defender to a spot deep under the basket, not drift out on the high post and depend on putting it on the floor.

With his strength and quickness, he should be able to beat every defender to the best spot on the floor, which is under the basket. Get a low, wide, strong stance with hands extended, catch an entry pass and turn strong to the rim. He has enough touch to score from in close, and the fouls he would draw would put a lot of pressure on the defense.

Of course, that would create some issues.
One, he wouldn't be in position to set screens all day.
And two, he'd have to get somebody to pass it to him.
No plan is perfect. :)

[Dukehky]

Let's see you don't think Mason is "just not that good", but you are talking about level 10 pain next year with Kelly, Haiston and Marshall. Mason must mean more to you than you let on. It could be that Mason has taken a step back because of a health issue. Sometimes Coach K doesn't let the world know about injuries and other issues. I just don't get it that true Duke fans can talk trash about their own players. If this was IC, I could understand. GoDuke!

Mason, the way he has played lately, is not that good. He has used his great size and athleticism to get boards, but has done almost nothing on the offensive end. As a college senior, I think that he could be a phenomenal player, but that again, rests in the upside that we perpetually discuss with the Plumlees. Ryan is a dynamite player, but he can't be the anchor of a defense like Miles/Mason can. Josh, however, has shown me little into how he can be an effective college basketball player outside of being able to be 6'7, maybe hit an open lay-up and give 5 fouls. As always, I hope he proves me wrong. And Marshall is just a young-un, I hope he turns out to be the best center Duke's ever had.

If it seems like I'm talking trash about our players, I apologize, just trying to be realistic, and if that insults you in some way, again, not my intention.

The second they put on a Duke uniform, the players get my love, but that doesn't mean that I have to like them all the time, or ever for that matter. And that's why a true Duke fan can still "talk trash," as you called it, on a player, because I still love them all.

[DukieInBrasil]

That being said, he's just not that good. I feel like McRoberts had more upside than Mason and he went second round. Mason can bull people around in college, and especially the ACC for the most part, but in the pros his lack of ball skills is going to get exposed. Well no it won't, because he'll sit on the bench for the first 5 years of his career until he can make a 10 foot jumper.
It pains me to think that next year's front line could be Kelly and Hairston, with Marshall coming in, I'm talking level 10 pain.

a) he's not that good by being the 2nd best rebounder in the conference while averaging nearly 12ppg and shooting 55% FG? You have some warped expectations.
b) except that JM and MP2 play very different types of ball. Josh is more of a point-PF who passes really well from the top and can't finish around the rim except on dunks while MP2 is a very good from-the-post passer who can score in the lane with defenders draped on him, plus he's an excellent rebounder.
c) you mean like Shelden Williams? who is now starting and still can't hit that jumper? Good rebounding and solid post defense will get you PT in the NBA. Shelden has improved as a player but is not fundamentally different than when he entered the league, and Mason has a lot more athleticism and upside than Shelden.
d) I'll take that frontline, but it won't matter that much cuz we'll have Curry, Dawkins, Cook, (shh)G, TT, Murphy, Sulaimon even if we don't get any additional recruits to fill the post. My point is that our backcourt will be even better than this year's plus we'll have 2 legit wing players + a SF/PF (AM) to give us even more versatility.

[UrinalCake]

My assumption about his draft status is scouts know what he brings to the table but they doubt there's much upside to him than a good run-jump athlete who hits the boards really hard but has limited offensive potential. He would not be as good as Noah, but he would be a solid backup playing 15-20 minutes per game.


If this is all you're expecting to get out of him then I would take Miles over Mason, as I said before. I was trying to think of a player comp for Mason and Dale Davis came to mind. 6'11", 230lb, wasn't expected to do much due to lack of offensive game but wound up with a productive 17-year NBA career.

[superdave]

If this is all you're expecting to get out of him then I would take Miles over Mason, as I said before. I was trying to think of a player comp for Mason and Dale Davis came to mind. 6'11", 230lb, wasn't expected to do much due to lack of offensive game but wound up with a productive 17-year NBA career.

Mason seems longer than Miles based on appearance. I could be wrong, but I'd bet his wingspan is a few inches longer. He also passes better out of the post and is better at putting the ball on the floor. I think for those reasons he is a much better NBA prospect.

As for the Dale Davis comparison, Davis and Miles might be a better comparison. Davis was pretty raw and was great for going after your opponents best big man. His best season was 11.7 and 10.9. I would bet Mason never averages that in any NBA season. Davis started over 80% of his NBA career games. I dont think that will be true for Mason.

[superdave]

The biggest thing Mason could do to help his low post game would be to actually set up properly in the low post.

He needs to beat the defender to a spot deep under the basket, not drift out on the high post and depend on putting it on the floor.

With his strength and quickness, he should be able to beat every defender to the best spot on the floor, which is under the basket. Get a low, wide, strong stance with hands extended, catch an entry pass and turn strong to the rim. He has enough touch to score from in close, and the fouls he would draw would put a lot of pressure on the defense.

Of course, that would create some issues.
One, he wouldn't be in position to set screens all day.
And two, he'd have to get somebody to pass it to him.
No plan is perfect. :)

Sounds like you are describing Tyler Zeller. If I were the big man coach for whatever NBA team that drafts him, I'd push three things for Mason:

First, establishing proper position before receiving the ball. Second, utilizing the pump fake better. Third, developing a drop step. Zeller excels at all 3. But Mason wont ever be as polished as Zeller, but he can learn to use his athleticism better and be equally as good.

[UrinalCake]

As for the Dale Davis comparison, Davis and Miles might be a better comparison. Davis was pretty raw and was great for going after your opponents best big man. His best season was 11.7 and 10.9. I would bet Mason never averages that in any NBA season. Davis started over 80% of his NBA career games. I dont think that will be true for Mason.

I was reading the scouting report for Davis coming out of Clemson and it was brutal. No one expected he would ever score a point in the NBA. Yet he did well for himself, which gives me hope that Mason can also carve out a niche for himself.

I have this bizarre theory that Mason will leave but Miles will measure out better than him in the combine.

[UrinalCake]

Sounds like you are describing Tyler Zeller.

Kinda goes along with Wheat's theory that all of Duke's big men should try to do exactly what UNC's big men currently do 8-)

[Kedsy]

Hate to call you out in any way, Kedsy, as I enjoyed the majority of this post (and your posts in general), but I do think that you're a bit off here. There a lot of posts in this thread that make a strong case in both directions; and projecting an implicit, subconsious, or psychological motive is, in my opinion, unfair to posts which are actually very thoughtful and well-reasoned.

I think you're misinterpreting what I said. I wasn't commenting on all the posts (or even the majority). I simply said the posters who say Mason and/or Austin "need" to come back are engaging in wishful thinking.

[Kedsy]

The similarities are high energy...

I don't know. I wouldn't necessarily describe Mason as "high energy." Miles, probably. Josh, certainly. But Mason seems more low key, to me.

[superdave]

I don't know. I wouldn't necessarily describe Mason as "high energy." Miles, probably. Josh, certainly. But Mason seems more low key, to me.

A "good motor" or "live body" were the other cliches that came to mind. Compared to Andrew Bynum or Marc Gasol, Mason has a good motor. Maybe that's just a nice way of say "not lumbering".

[UrinalCake]

He also has good length, tremendous upside, and great second-jumpability to go along with his good motor.

[superdave]

He also has good length, tremendous upside, and great second-jumpability to go along with his good motor.

Thanks for leaving "high basketball IQ" for me to mention. Appreciate that.

The NBA draft never ceases to entertain.

[OldSchool]

I think scouts will probably compare Mason's game to Joakim Noah. He's more athletic than Noah but has lesser defensive instincts. The similarities are high energy, willingness to hit the boards and set picks, limited offensive moves, and good use of body and athleticism to rebound and block shots.

Noah is 6'11' and 235 while Mason is 6'10'' and 235. Noah probably has a wider frame and Mason probably has stronger legs.

Noah had a similar freshman year to Mason - played every game but in limited minutes. The difference is Noah jumped his sophomore year to 14 and 7 then averaged 12 and 8 his junior year. Mason has instead gone from 7 and 8 last year to 10 and 10 this year roughly.

In my opinion (which wont get you a cup of coffee) Mason would be a backup center in the league as opposed to a 4. He's strong enough, tall enough and jumps well enough to play center, but he'd need a consistent jumper to play the 4 and that's not in his game right now.

My assumption about his draft status is scouts know what he brings to the table but they doubt there's much upside to him than a good run-jump athlete who hits the boards really hard but has limited offensive potential. He would not be as good as Noah, but he would be a solid backup playing 15-20 minutes per game.

In comparison McRoberts is averaging 2 and 3 in 13 minutes a game, but has not played every game for the Lakers this season. He is more skilled than Mason and more instinctive but not as hard a worker.

Good comparison SuperDave with Noah. For a big guy Mason is relatively quick, has excellent run and jump ability and is pretty good in terms of hand-eye and hand-foot coordination. I think he will be better at run-outs and transition plays in the NBA than Noah is. I think he will be better at the pick-and-roll than Noah is. I don't see him as a better defensive player than Noah. I do see him as a 4 and not a 5 notwithstanding that we don't see him shoot a lot of jump shots. I wouldn't assume he will not be able to hit the open 10-to-15-footer in the NBA as a 4 needs to be able to do at times. That is something Duke does not need him to do in our offensive scheme.

As I have argued before, we don't make the full use of Mason because of the limitations of our guards. Mason could be a much more effective weapon in the pick-and-roll if our guards developed better vision and passing ability. For goodness sakes, the moment you see Mason's big defender hedge, just throw it over the top. Just get it over the big defender and only Mason will be able to get it and he either has an open path to the rim or the defensive rotation will leave someone open under the basket or at the three-point line. Mason is a good enough passer and decision-maker to make the right play. This is primarily on Austin. If Austin and Mason both stay next year, I expect to see Mason as a much more effectively-used pick-and-roll weapon as Austin continues to get better with his court vision and passing. Right now our guards use Mason primarily as just a high dribble screen.

I think Mason is capable of being a better FT shooter. We see that in stretches where he looks good, and then he reverts to his line-drive technique and starts bricking. I think some big guys with their height and long arms stand at the line and the rim seems so close that they feel they can just flick it in, and the shot looks practically like a line drive. Even big guys need to put some air under the ball every time and develop a consistent motion.

Mason is a better athlete than Josh McRoberts. Remember Josh had issues with his back. Josh's advantage was he had a relatively high basketball IQ as a young college player and had good court vision and passing skills, as well as a decent dribble for a big guy.

Even though I am bullish on Mason's NBA prospects and I expect the NBA scouts to be too, I don't think that means he will necessarily go this year. He may want to finish out his college career and get his degree[s] graduating with his class and enjoy his senior year. Even if you come back to school later to finish out your degree, you never get to have that senior year experience like Kyle and Nolan had. You can bounce around from NBA team to NBA team but that connection with your college, your coaches and your college friends remains.

[greybeard]

Mason is a terrific student with a double major, the second of which I believe he began pursuing at the beginning of this year. In an interview, he sounded very excited about both.

[tommy]

I think scouts will probably compare Mason's game to Joakim Noah. He's more athletic than Noah but has lesser defensive instincts. The similarities are high energy, willingness to hit the boards and set picks, limited offensive moves, and good use of body and athleticism to rebound and block shots.

Noah is 6'11' and 235 while Mason is 6'10'' and 235. Noah probably has a wider frame and Mason probably has stronger legs.

Noah had a similar freshman year to Mason - played every game but in limited minutes. The difference is Noah jumped his sophomore year to 14 and 7 then averaged 12 and 8 his junior year. Mason has instead gone from 7 and 8 last year to 10 and 10 this year roughly.

In my opinion (which wont get you a cup of coffee) Mason would be a backup center in the league as opposed to a 4. He's strong enough, tall enough and jumps well enough to play center, but he'd need a consistent jumper to play the 4 and that's not in his game right now.

My assumption about his draft status is scouts know what he brings to the table but they doubt there's much upside to him than a good run-jump athlete who hits the boards really hard but has limited offensive potential. He would not be as good as Noah, but he would be a solid backup playing 15-20 minutes per game.

In comparison McRoberts is averaging 2 and 3 in 13 minutes a game, but has not played every game for the Lakers this season. He is more skilled than Mason and more instinctive but not as hard a worker.

Superdave - I agree with a lot of what you (and other posters in this thread) have said, but I would quibble with yor statement that McRoberts is more skilled than Mason and more instinctive. McRoberts was/is a better and more instinctive passer, and has/had a much better handle, no question. But Mason has developed both a left and right-handed hook shot that, when he gets his feet underneath him properly, and is in rhythm, is a thing of beauty. He just doesn't do it often enough, that's all. But I consider those to be highly skilled moves. One of the problems with McRoberts is that he never really developed any reliable moves at all. He could hit a 12-15 foot jumper, but he really struggled in the paint.

I also think Mason's defensive skills have developed greatly since he got to Duke. His first year for sure, and even last year, he was constantly in foul trouble, he had a lot of problems with rotating properly, his help defense was erratic. I've seen big improvements in those areas this year. And he's playing much stronger -- his hands are stronger, he's holding onto the ball much more effectively too.

I'm not saying he's going to be a great NBA player, or even a starter, but if I had to take a flyer on him for the next 3-5 years, with his work ethic and his smarts vs. having what we know McRoberts to be at this point, I'd take my chances on Mason.

[hq2]

Not quite sure what's happened to McBobs. He was actually playing O.K. in Indiana. Not sure if he's been injured or what, but hasn't done much lately in L.A. Maybe he just doesn't fit the way they play.

[MartyClark]

I really like the young man. I hope he stays. He's a valuable part of this team. But... he really is ponderous in the low post. He clearly has some athletic ability but he looks slow when he get the ball low and tries to make a move. He's not able to make a quick spin move and often gets stripped.

I don't know how that translates to draft status or NBA success. He's had a good year, notwithstanding the last few games, but I don't think he's all that athletic compared to his draft competition.

[greybeard]

If Mason made a reasonable percentage of his foul shots, how much more per game would he be averaging? Mason' game, especially on the pro level, would be greatly improved if he can show areliable mid-range jump shot. We haven't seen that shot from him. I am not sure that it is because he doesn't have it. K might want him challenging at the rim, period. A jump shot for Mason might well be easier than a foul shot; it does not depend on fluidly of energy up from the ground into an extension of his right arm pushing into the ground. On the other hand, a reliable jump shot does depend upon not holding the ball in one's palm and come easily with a rythm that can vary in speeds (rhythm creats feel, touch, in my view). I think that improving Mason's foul shooting, and probably his mid-range jump shooting, will not be easy. His foul shooting proves that. If you think that holding the ball in one's fingers and having the right tension in them to fit with how you deliver the ball to shooting is easy to acquire for a player who hasn't displayed them, just think of Shaq and the many iterations of style on his foul shot we saw him go through. The last was downright comical--he held the ball at the very tip of rigid fingers and a rigid right arm ; the only part of him that moved was his feet pushing into the ground.)

Mason has not shown a turn around jump shot off the backboard on either side of the lane. The backboard is very forgiving with regard to speed; Mason shoots his foul shots with excellent direction; it is the pace of the shot that is what causes his misses. The backboard shot from either side of the lane should not be hard for Mason to develop. It will also open more up-and-under moves (he has shown that move from in close). So, I think Mason's effectiveness on the offensive end depends to a significant degree on a reliable 10-15 foot jump shot.

As a rebounder and defender Mason is high end, with the possible exception of defending against a power forward who can play at distance from the basket. However, if the later is a problem, that will improve with experience--playing one-on-one with suc players on his own team when he turns pro. As a runner and finisher on the break, Mason is high end.

Finally, Mason is awesome at what sells tickets. I mean the guy can throw it down, with force and variety. That money can buy, and there are not many guys who can deliver like Mason. Soo, whether he stays or goes, I think that the money will be there.

Noah, in my opinion, has an uncanny ability to predict the game as it comes to the basket when he is on defense. That vision, his long arms, and his terrific balance, timing, and footwork make him a superior defender in the league. They also give him the ability to get rebounds that other players of size just won't get to. His vision for the game also helps him to stay out of the way on offense and to pass the ball well. As for his productivity on offense, both in college (Horford) and the pros (Boozer) Noah played beside dominant inside scorers. In short, he has a unique and very effective style; I don't think you can compare how he plays to anyone in the game.

[greybeard]

Mason has The talent that sells tickets. He can really throw it down, with force, in a variety of ways. That talent can be brought, and the NBA buys it for lots of money. I do not think Mason will lose money by coming back. I think that he has a lot to gain by coming back that has nothing to do with basketball. Therefore, I think Mason will be back.

If Mason wants to learn how to use use himself to shoot effectively, he should consult an expert in how people learn to change their habitual patterns and have the ability to choose something that is better. Tweeking an already effective habitual pattern is a different matter than changing a habitual patterns that go to root habits and misconceptions about self use. Shooting coaches can be quite effective with the latter; very, very few are of help with the former. If it was otherwise, it is safe to assume that Mason would not be shooting no 50 odd percent from the line.

I have suggested a strategy that I am reasonably sure will help Mason acquire tools that will lead him to improve. For all concerned, I wll leave it that.

Man, the kid can throw it down, can't he, and that does seem to be what the pro game is all about. He'll earn.

[superdave]

If Mason made a reasonable percentage of his foul shots, how much more per game would he be averaging? Mason' game, especially on the pro level, would be greatly improved if he can show areliable mid-range jump shot. We haven't seen that shot from him. I am not sure that it is because he doesn't have it. K might want him challenging at the rim, period. A jump shot for Mason might well be easier than a foul shot; it does not depend on fluidly of energy up from the ground into an extension of his right arm pushing into the ground. On the other hand, a reliable jump shot does depend upon not holding the ball in one's palm and come easily with a rythm that can vary in speeds (rhythm creats feel, touch, in my view). I think that improving Mason's foul shooting, and probably his mid-range jump shooting, will not be easy. His foul shooting proves that. If you think that holding the ball in one's fingers and having the right tension in them to fit with how you deliver the ball to shooting is easy to acquire for a player who hasn't displayed them, just think of Shaq and the many iterations of style on his foul shot we saw him go through. The last was downright comical--he held the ball at the very tip of rigid fingers and a rigid right arm ; the only part of him that moved was his feet pushing into the ground.)


Mason is 73 for 150 on the season through 29 games. That is 2.5 for 5.2 per game. If he made one more FT then he'd be 3.5 for 5.2 per game and shoot 68% and average 11.7 points.

But if he shot that he could also stay on the court at the end of close games for offense and the guards would actually feed the post late in the game. It would be a self-reinforcing improvement. He'd spiral upwards!

[UrinalCake]

But if he shot that [68%] he could also stay on the court at the end of close games for offense and the guards would actually feed the post late in the game. It would be a self-reinforcing improvement. He'd spiral upwards!

I don't have the numbers to back it up, but my gut tells me that he's been shooting at a much higher percentage in the last ten or so games. Like maybe around 70% At the same time, his scoring has gone way down. So there appears to be a negative correlation between scoring and free throw shooting (though in reality there's probably no correlation).

Even when he was shooting poorly he still played aggressively and went to the basket. I will grant you that in the last five minutes he's less useful, but I don't think that accounts for much scoring overall.

[Kedsy]

I don't have the numbers to back it up, but my gut tells me that he's been shooting at a much higher percentage in the last ten or so games. Like maybe around 70% At the same time, his scoring has gone way down. So there appears to be a negative correlation between scoring and free throw shooting (though in reality there's probably no correlation).

I had thought so, too, but it's not really the case. In his last 10 games, Mason is shooting 59% from the line. In his last 13 games (the high point, if you're scalping results), he's shooting 63% from the line. In his last 6 games (the recent low point, if you're scalping results), he's shooting 48% from the line. So, better than earlier in the season, but not particularly close to 70%.

[dkball]

Why would the NBA and/or NCAA wish to keep the kids in school? Both organizations are pretty healthy financially, so I guess I don't understand what you think their motivation would be to implement your plan?

My thinking is it would give some type of incentive for some kids to stay in school. True the NCAA and the NBA will make their money either way, but it would be good PR and I guess I like to think both entities would like to encourage kids to stay in school longer.