Miles actually becoming Zoubek 2.0?

[loran16]

The Miles Plumlee-Brian Zoubek parallels are really easy to make after yesterday's Maryland game. Zoubek broke out in 2010 against Maryland, the first time he was put in the starting lineup. Miles meanwhile, had a seemingly-breakout game against Maryland as well (though he didn't start).

Now this is a lazy comparison at first glance - Miles doesn't kick the ball out as much as Zoubek did, plays a little more out of the center than Zoubek, and has randomly disappeared in games (Zoubek was a monster throughout after the Maryland game). Miles for example, had basically no impact on the Carolina game, where his line reads like little more than an afterthought.

But perhaps there's something more to this comparison than you might originally think. If you've paid for Ken Pomeroy's site, you might've noticed this little interesting tidbit on Miles Plumlee's player card:
"Similar: '10 Brian Zoubek (886), '10 Jason Love (845), '09 Cyrus Tate (841), '10 Chris Oakes (837), '12 John Fraley (823)"

What does that mean? Well, those are a list of the players who have the most similar statistical profiles to Miles this year. The numbers next to the player in parentheses show how close the two profiles match - the higher number the most similar the player.

And the most similar statistical profile to 2012 Miles? 2010 Brian Zoubek. The similarities become pretty clear when you look at each of their numbers. After the last game, Miles is #1 in Offensive Rebound Percentage in the Country (If you restrict it to players who play a minimum of 40% of minutes to qualify). Let's compare their numbers:

Offensive Rating (Points scored per possession): Miles: 1.203, Zoubek 1.204
Effective Field Goal %: Miles: 63.4%,, Zoubek 63.8%
True Shooting %: Miles 64.6%, Zoubek 62.6%
Offensive Rebounding %: Miles 18.1%, Zoubek 21.4%
Defensive Rebounding %: Miles 22.4%, Zoubek 24.8%
Assist Rate: Miles: 5.4%, Zoubek: 9.8%
Turnover Rate: Miles 20.3%, Zoubek 21.5%
Fouls Committed per 40: Miles: 4.7, Zoubek:7.4*
*After the Maryland game in 2010, Zoubek's Fouls Committed per 40 dropped to 6.1 (from over 10!)

As you can see these are pretty close. The biggest differences are that Zoubek assisted on nearly double as many plays as Miles and that Zoubek was in fact a better rebounder.

That last part can't be understated...Zoubek was one of the best rebounders in college basketball over the last decade: Only DeJuan Blair had a higher Offensive Rebound % since Pomeroy started tracking this in 2005. But Miles' offensive rebounding is really high, and it was high even before our last game (It was top 10 before then).

Obviously, this doesn't account for defense, where I think Zoubek was superior if only because of his huge size caused more problems for guys going inside (see Gordon Hayward's 2nd to last NCAA shot for an obvious example).

But Miles' #s are so close that I wonder if K would consider trying to have him play a little more like Zoubek than he currently does - with him kicking the ball out a little bit more and playing more often to try and grab those extra boards.

[Wander]

I think the most important difference is not anything between Miles and Zoubek, but the surrounding talent. We've already got a really good center and power forward. Our defense is much worse, which means there's more opportunities for Miles to pick up fouls when other guys get beat or miss assignments.

That said, we still have really good shooters for kick outs, and there are plenty of available minutes for Miles (even if that number is less than what it was for Zoubek), so I think there's something to your suggestion.

[mkline09]

I'm not a fan of this comparison. I don't think they are the same player though they could play the same role. The two teams are so different though and I think Miles' lack of consistency prevents this comparison from really being accurate. Miles God love him has never been consistent and we've only seemed to just play a waiting game for him to bust out. We'll with only six game remaining I'm not sure that is going to happen. I'm happy with what he is doing with his time. He is a good kid and a good representative of Duke University but ultimately I think it is a bit unrealistic to lump comparisons on him this late. I just say let him be and hopefully he continues to put up at least another six 13 and 22 games. Heck why not 15 more for good measure.:D

[Bob Green]

We'll with only six game remaining...

A more accurate number would be somewhere between eight and 15.

[Chris Randolph]

The numbers are fun to see side by side and to see that they are pretty similar. But like it has already been stated, Miles has been inconsistent throughout his whole career. There is a reason that you see the question: "What has happened to or where has Miles gone?" over and over each season. The main difference between Zoubek and Miles is what surrounds the 2 of them. Those 3 all americans who could all guard their man and could all score, brought it every night and made Zoub's efficiency rating that much better. Just as Miles has been inconsistent, so too have the guys surrounding him.

[loran16]

The numbers are fun to see side by side and to see that they are pretty similar. But like it has already been stated, Miles has been inconsistent throughout his whole career. There is a reason that you see the question: "What has happened to or where has Miles gone?" over and over each season. The main difference between Zoubek and Miles is what surrounds the 2 of them. Those 3 all americans who could all guard their man and could all score, brought it every night and made Zoub's efficiency rating that much better. Just as Miles has been inconsistent, so too have the guys surrounding him.

To be fair, people thought Zou was inconsistent throughout his career until then.


And yes, admittedly, the guard situation is far worse than it was in 2010. But that doesn't mean Miles couldn't be huge for this team....the team has issues on defense, but if Miles could stay in and keep up this level of overall performance, our offense might skyrocket enough to give us a shot.

[Chris Randolph]

To be fair, people thought Zou was inconsistent throughout his career until then.


And yes, admittedly, the guard situation is far worse than it was in 2010. But that doesn't mean Miles couldn't be huge for this team....the team has issues on defense, but if Miles could stay in and keep up this level of overall performance, our offense might skyrocket enough to give us a shot.

Personally, until the Maryland game I thought Zoubs was consistent. Consistently a below-average player. Then he became a good player from the Maryland game on. Miles in his career has shown he can be good and then would show (or be a no-show) his bad side.

But yes I do agree that Miles could be huge for the team, especially rebounding and protecting the rim. I don't think our offense will "skyrocket" because of him as our offense has been fine this year. His impact needs to be felt at the rim on the defensive end and through rebounding.

[mo.st.dukie]

I'm not a fan of this comparison. I don't think they are the same player though they could play the same role. The two teams are so different though and I think Miles' lack of consistency prevents this comparison from really being accurate. Miles God love him has never been consistent and we've only seemed to just play a waiting game for him to bust out. We'll with only six game remaining I'm not sure that is going to happen. I'm happy with what he is doing with his time. He is a good kid and a good representative of Duke University but ultimately I think it is a bit unrealistic to lump comparisons on him this late. I just say let him be and hopefully he continues to put up at least another six 13 and 22 games. Heck why not 15 more for good measure.:D

Go look at the game logs for Zoubek here http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/logs.php?playerid=520&season=2009-10 and then look at the game logs for Miles here http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/logs.php?playerid=2734&season=2011-12.

If you focus on the games leading into the home game against Maryland you'll find that the numbers for both players up to that point are eerily similar. We tend to use revisionist history and claim Zoubek was a monster all season but the fact is that until that Maryland game Brian was wildly inconsistent just like Miles as been. Will Miles be a more consistent presence inside and on the glass like Zoubs was from Feb. 13 onward? We'll have to wait and see but it's possible.

[devildeac]

Hmmm...


From the Raleigh News & Observer today:

http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/02/12/1848262/mi-plumlee-motivated-by-zoubek.html

[OZZIE4DUKE]

with only six game remaining


A more accurate number would be somewhere between eight and 15.
The only accurate number of games remaining for us is 15! :cool:

[throatybeard]

What I'd like to know is Miles Plumlee 2012's similarity score to Miles Plumlee in late 2010. He was instrumental.

[loran16]

What I'd like to know is Miles Plumlee 2012's similarity score to Miles Plumlee in late 2010. He was instrumental.

That's not what you want. Miles has a bigger role this year. Also his numbers are far superior to that year this year. as you'd expect. You'd want Hairston in theory to be similar to Miles

[Kedsy]

But Miles' #s are so close that I wonder if K would consider trying to have him play a little more like Zoubek than he currently does - with him kicking the ball out a little bit more and playing more often to try and grab those extra boards.

I just read in an article (I think it was linked from the main page but I don't remember which one) that before yesterday's game, K showed the team film of last year's Maryland game and specifically suggested to Miles that he should play more like Z. So I think your conjecture is spot on.


Personally, until the Maryland game I thought Zoubs was consistent. Consistently a below-average player. Then he became a good player from the Maryland game on.

Well, to put it bluntly, you thought wrong.

Below is a game chart of Z's senior season. Game 25 is the Maryland game:



Game Mins Pts Rebs O Rebs D Rebs O Reb % D Reb % Ptper40 Rper40 ORper40 DRper40
1 16 14 7 3 4 26.7 23.8 35.0 17.5 7.5 10.0
2 16 4 5 3 2 23.4 11.9 10.0 12.5 7.5 5.0
3 16 9 13 8 5 54 29 22.5 32.5 20.0 12.5
4 14 4 9 5 4 38.6 24.8 11.4 25.7 14.3 11.4
5 13 5 6 3 3 27.1 31.8 15.4 18.5 9.2 9.2
6 22 2 11 8 3 27.4 11.6 3.6 20.0 14.5 5.5
7 9 0 4 1 3 14.8 37 0.0 17.8 4.4 13.3
8 18 11 7 3 4 16.6 27.7 24.4 15.6 6.7 8.9
9 15 13 8 3 5 27.5 33.3 34.7 21.3 8.0 13.3
10 19 4 4 1 3 6.1 13.7 8.4 8.4 2.1 6.3
11 25 10 12 4 8 16 32 16.0 19.2 6.4 12.8
12 17 8 6 4 2 33.6 11.7 18.8 14.1 9.4 4.7
13 18 0 2 0 2 0 12 0.0 4.4 0.0 4.4
14 12 0 6 4 2 36 19 0.0 20.0 13.3 6.7
15 20 4 5 3 2 16.6 11.7 8.0 10.0 6.0 4.0
16 16 6 11 5 6 35.7 46.8 15.0 27.5 12.5 15.0
17 9 3 2 1 1 10.5 9.4 13.3 8.9 4.4 4.4
18 14 6 9 5 4 36.6 39.4 17.1 25.7 14.3 11.4
19 14 0 2 1 1 9.5 8.9 0.0 5.7 2.9 2.9
20 13 6 3 2 1 17 9 18.5 9.2 6.2 3.1
21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 13 5 7 4 3 33.2 26.3 15.4 21.5 12.3 9.2
23 24 3 6 3 3 19.2 15.6 5.0 10.0 5.0 5.0
24 10 0 3 0 3 0 28.5 0.0 12.0 0.0 12.0
25 22 16 17 8 9 35.4 40.9 29.1 30.9 14.5 16.4
26 29 10 5 4 1 14.9 5.9 13.8 6.9 5.5 1.4
27 29 3 16 8 8 23.9 28.2 4.1 22.1 11.0 11.0
28 23 10 11 4 7 16.9 28.3 17.4 19.1 7.0 12.2
29 14 0 4 0 4 0 30.8 0.0 11.4 0.0 11.4
30 29 4 13 6 7 19.7 33.2 5.5 17.9 8.3 9.7
31 20 8 13 5 8 32.2 47 16.0 26.0 10.0 16.0
32 19 2 7 2 5 10.7 28.4 4.2 14.7 4.2 10.5
33 28 7 6 2 4 9.5 17.8 10.0 8.6 2.9 5.7
34 28 2 9 4 5 16.3 23 2.9 12.9 5.7 7.1
35 17 7 4 2 2 16.8 12.7 16.5 9.4 4.7 4.7
36 23 14 13 6 7 29.8 38 24.3 22.6 10.4 12.2
37 24 4 14 4 10 18.5 42.7 6.7 23.3 6.7 16.7
38 19 5 9 4 5 19.5 28.4 10.5 18.9 8.4 10.5
39 27 6 10 5 5 27.4 25.5 8.9 14.8 7.4 7.4
40 31 8 10 6 4 24.1 12.9 10.3 12.9 7.7 5.2


So, yes, his counting stats were better from the Maryland game on, but that was really only because he played more minutes. Here's a summary, showing pre-Maryland and Maryland-to-Butler:



Game Mins Pts Rebs O Rebs D Rebs O Reb % D Reb % Ptper40 Rper40 ORper40 DRper40
Pre-Md 365 117 148 74 74 24.9 21.4 12.8 16.2 8.1 8.1
Md to end 382 106 161 70 91 20.9 27.5 11.1 16.9 7.3 9.5


His defensive rebounding was better from Maryland on, but his offensive rebounding was actually better before Maryland. His per 40 scoring was a little better before Maryland, too, and his overall rebounding per 40 was almost the same. Overall, his production while in the game was very similar before and after the supposed epiphany. The only major difference was minutes per game.

[Chris Randolph]

Great post Kedsy, you showed me, haha. I've never seen Zoubs stats layed out like that. Would have never guessed that his stats weren't that much different pre and post Maryland game. I've been known to be wrong about 8,372,838,023 times in my life so no surprise there!

[nocilla]

Just for comparison;
Career per game averages before their respective Maryland games;
Zoubek 3.90 pts, 3.74 reb, 11.01 mins
Miles 4.59 pts, 4.41 reb, 15.22 mins

Averages for Senior season before their Maryland games;
Zoubek 4.88 pts, 6.17 reb, 15.17 mins
Miles 6.25 pts, 5.79 reb, 17.83 mins

Averages from Maryland game and on;
Zoubek 6.63 pts, 10.06 reb, 23.88 mins (started with 16 pts, 17 reb, 22 mins)
Miles ?? (starts with 13 pts, 22 rebs, 28 mins)

Career wise, Miles is ahead of where Zoubek was. Senior season, Miles is ahead scoring wise but slightly trailing rebounding wise. As Kedsy pointed out, Zoubek's production correlated to an increase in minutes. Zoubek's minutes increased about 8 mpg. I have said this before but I think Miles minutes should increase as well. I don't think they can increase by 8 minutes though, maybe 2 or 3. I know tommy's analysis have shown that Miles' defense has slipped but I still feel he is better defensively than Kelly and he is a much better rebounder. Kelly is currently averaging 25 mpg to Miles 18 but the roles reversed in the UMd game. I'm sure K will play the hot hand from game to game whoever it might be, but I think Kelly and Miles should both get about the same minutes, around 22. And even if that happens, 3 minutes won't be enough to see a Zoubekian transformation, but maybe a smaller version of it.

[UrinalCake]

Zoubek's struggles during his first 3.5 years were largely caused by 1.) injuries and 2.) foul trouble. Miles hasn't had any injuries, and while he has struggled with fouls at times I don't think that is the primary reason for his lack of floor time. There are games where he's not in foul trouble but doesn't play due to ineffectiveness or due to other players simply playing better. So in that sense it's not as likely to see an instant turnaround in the manner of Zoubek.

On the other hand, confidence plays a huge role too and hopefully he'll gain some from this game and others in which he's played well.

Regarding his rebounding rate, it's a tough comparison because Miles is playing alongside Mason, who is also an excellent rebounder. Lance was solid but not at the same level, so big Z simply had more rebounds available to him.

[Bob Green]

Miles receives a shout out from ESPN in their Weekly Watch:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/notebook/_/page/notebookweeklywatch1210/week-10

When you grab 22 rebounds, people notice.

[billy]

His defensive rebounding was better from Maryland on, but his offensive rebounding was actually better before Maryland. His per 40 scoring was a little better before Maryland, too, and his overall rebounding per 40 was almost the same. Overall, his production while in the game was very similar before and after the supposed epiphany. The only major difference was minutes per game.

This is perhaps a naive question: other than defensive rebounding, what are good measures of defensive efficiency? The statistics listed focus primarily on the offensive side of the game; in my mind's eye, I saw Zoubek as more of a defensive force than Miles. Unfortunately, you can't teach height (the flipside is you can't teach sheer athleticism). Which gets me back to my original question - is there an effective measure of how Miles stacks up to Zoubek defensively?

[Kedsy]

This is perhaps a naive question: other than defensive rebounding, what are good measures of defensive efficiency? The statistics listed focus primarily on the offensive side of the game; in my mind's eye, I saw Zoubek as more of a defensive force than Miles. Unfortunately, you can't teach height (the flipside is you can't teach sheer athleticism). Which gets me back to my original question - is there an effective measure of how Miles stacks up to Zoubek defensively?

Not that I know of. The only measures I've seen are like Tommy's stop percentage, which is more or less a defensive plus/minus. Z had great plus/minus stats all around, but a lot of smart guys refuse to put stock in plus/minus numbers, mainly because of the small sample size and the inability to filter out the "noise."

[mike88]

This is perhaps a naive question: other than defensive rebounding, what are good measures of defensive efficiency? The statistics listed focus primarily on the offensive side of the game; in my mind's eye, I saw Zoubek as more of a defensive force than Miles. Unfortunately, you can't teach height (the flipside is you can't teach sheer athleticism). Which gets me back to my original question - is there an effective measure of how Miles stacks up to Zoubek defensively?

one other is your foul rate- as noted in this thread, it was an area that Z improved during his senior year
Miles has 53 fouls in 456 minutes (0.116 fouls per minute)
Tyler has 68 in 474 (0.14)
our overall rate is 455 / 5000 (0.09)

so not too bad for Miles, especially given that he is playing inside

[Des Esseintes]

This is perhaps a naive question: other than defensive rebounding, what are good measures of defensive efficiency? The statistics listed focus primarily on the offensive side of the game; in my mind's eye, I saw Zoubek as more of a defensive force than Miles. Unfortunately, you can't teach height (the flipside is you can't teach sheer athleticism). Which gets me back to my original question - is there an effective measure of how Miles stacks up to Zoubek defensively?

We have a few tools. Dean Oliver came up with the statistic DRating, which shows how many points a player (or team) gives up per 100 possessions. It's the opposite of ORating, which shows how many points a player (or team) scores per 100. Obviously, the team version is much more easily calculated and kenpom combines a modified version of each to produce his rankings. As you might expect, individual ratings are imperfect since, like plus-minus, they can reward a player simply for being on the court with great players in a great scheme. (I'm guessing that is how Boozer finished 7th in the NBA in DRating last season. Thanks, Tom Thibodeau!)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/def_rtg_top_10.html

For what it's worth, however, basketball-reference.com does carry the stat for college. Comparing Miles and Zoubek mostly highlights some its shortcomings.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/brian-zoubek-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/miles-plumlee-1.html
Zoubek's 2010 DRating is a fantastic 85.5. Miles's 2012 DRating is a more pedestrian 95.3. But if you look at Miles's previous years, you will see that in *his* 2010 he had a DRating of 87.6, a full 8 points per 100 possessions better than this season and almost equal to Zoubek's. I don't think anyone would argue that Miles has cratered as a defender in the past two years, so obviously teammates and team defense play a large role here. That said, his performance as a sophomore suggests that at equivalent moments in their careers, Miles could probably match Brian defensively. So that's an interesting nugget.

We also have Defensive Win Shares, a more complex statistic explained here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html. It suffers from the same teammate problem as DRating. Miles's 2010 DWS is considerably greater than his this year, 3.0 to 1.3. Even acknowledging that DWS is a counting stat and not a rate stat and 2012 is unfinished, DWS thinks he is having a worse senior season than sophomore season. Which does seems unlikely, though I appreciate Throatybeard reminding us what a vital cog he was for the title run. Zoubek's 2010 DWS was 4.3, clearly superior to Miles's and undercutting the DRating analysis.

Ultimately, I think these statistics are most meaningful at the NBA level where the greater number of games, longer duration of games, and more balanced schedule allow for more robust data, but this stuff is still fun to look at.

[HaveFunExpectToWin]

These statistics are very nice, but what we need to discuss more is that Miles is only just now growing into his beard. You can't just grow a beard and expect to be a rebounding machine. It takes time for the body to adjust.

http://sports.cbsimg.net/u/photos/basketball/college/img17226234.jpg

[airowe]

Here's a few more stats to compare: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2012/02/13/how-similar-are-miles-plumlee-and-brian-zoubeks-senior-seasons/

They're very, very similar.

[BlueandWhite]

Hmmm...


From the Raleigh News & Observer today:

http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/02/12/1848262/mi-plumlee-motivated-by-zoubek.html

Thanks for posting, great article -- love getting insights into what the coaching staff does to prepare/motivate the team in between games. Interesting that they would show video of the 1991 Duke team in the Final Four along with the video from the 2010 Maryland game...

[hq2]

Yeah, as soon as Miles had a Zoubesque big game against Maryland the comparisons would come out.
As we recall, the person Zoubs took the starting job from was none other than Miles himself! But, like
Zoubs, one good game against not very good comp does not a season make. Since in the previous game
against Carolina he was not particularly effective (how could they have let that skinny John Henson
get 16, or was it 17 rebounds? He's not that good!), it's a little early (or maybe late!) to jump on the
Miles bandwagon. He's a player who has consistently demonstrated his inconsistency, along with questionable
hands and feet, and not particularly good lateral movement. I'm gonna wait to see him do it against some
better comp before I'm convinced.

[Duvall]

Since in the previous game
against Carolina he was not particularly effective (how could they have let that skinny John Henson
get 16, or was it 17 rebounds? He's not that good!).

Wait, what?

[chrisheery]

I just read in an article (I think it was linked from the main page but I don't remember which one) that before yesterday's game, K showed the team film of last year's Maryland game and specifically suggested to Miles that he should play more like Z. So I think your conjecture is spot on.



Well, to put it bluntly, you thought wrong.

Below is a game chart of Z's senior season. Game 25 is the Maryland game:



Game Mins Pts Rebs O Rebs D Rebs O Reb % D Reb % Ptper40 Rper40 ORper40 DRper40
1 16 14 7 3 4 26.7 23.8 35.0 17.5 7.5 10.0
2 16 4 5 3 2 23.4 11.9 10.0 12.5 7.5 5.0
3 16 9 13 8 5 54 29 22.5 32.5 20.0 12.5
4 14 4 9 5 4 38.6 24.8 11.4 25.7 14.3 11.4
5 13 5 6 3 3 27.1 31.8 15.4 18.5 9.2 9.2
6 22 2 11 8 3 27.4 11.6 3.6 20.0 14.5 5.5
7 9 0 4 1 3 14.8 37 0.0 17.8 4.4 13.3
8 18 11 7 3 4 16.6 27.7 24.4 15.6 6.7 8.9
9 15 13 8 3 5 27.5 33.3 34.7 21.3 8.0 13.3
10 19 4 4 1 3 6.1 13.7 8.4 8.4 2.1 6.3
11 25 10 12 4 8 16 32 16.0 19.2 6.4 12.8
12 17 8 6 4 2 33.6 11.7 18.8 14.1 9.4 4.7
13 18 0 2 0 2 0 12 0.0 4.4 0.0 4.4
14 12 0 6 4 2 36 19 0.0 20.0 13.3 6.7
15 20 4 5 3 2 16.6 11.7 8.0 10.0 6.0 4.0
16 16 6 11 5 6 35.7 46.8 15.0 27.5 12.5 15.0
17 9 3 2 1 1 10.5 9.4 13.3 8.9 4.4 4.4
18 14 6 9 5 4 36.6 39.4 17.1 25.7 14.3 11.4
19 14 0 2 1 1 9.5 8.9 0.0 5.7 2.9 2.9
20 13 6 3 2 1 17 9 18.5 9.2 6.2 3.1
21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 13 5 7 4 3 33.2 26.3 15.4 21.5 12.3 9.2
23 24 3 6 3 3 19.2 15.6 5.0 10.0 5.0 5.0
24 10 0 3 0 3 0 28.5 0.0 12.0 0.0 12.0
25 22 16 17 8 9 35.4 40.9 29.1 30.9 14.5 16.4
26 29 10 5 4 1 14.9 5.9 13.8 6.9 5.5 1.4
27 29 3 16 8 8 23.9 28.2 4.1 22.1 11.0 11.0
28 23 10 11 4 7 16.9 28.3 17.4 19.1 7.0 12.2
29 14 0 4 0 4 0 30.8 0.0 11.4 0.0 11.4
30 29 4 13 6 7 19.7 33.2 5.5 17.9 8.3 9.7
31 20 8 13 5 8 32.2 47 16.0 26.0 10.0 16.0
32 19 2 7 2 5 10.7 28.4 4.2 14.7 4.2 10.5
33 28 7 6 2 4 9.5 17.8 10.0 8.6 2.9 5.7
34 28 2 9 4 5 16.3 23 2.9 12.9 5.7 7.1
35 17 7 4 2 2 16.8 12.7 16.5 9.4 4.7 4.7
36 23 14 13 6 7 29.8 38 24.3 22.6 10.4 12.2
37 24 4 14 4 10 18.5 42.7 6.7 23.3 6.7 16.7
38 19 5 9 4 5 19.5 28.4 10.5 18.9 8.4 10.5
39 27 6 10 5 5 27.4 25.5 8.9 14.8 7.4 7.4
40 31 8 10 6 4 24.1 12.9 10.3 12.9 7.7 5.2


So, yes, his counting stats were better from the Maryland game on, but that was really only because he played more minutes. Here's a summary, showing pre-Maryland and Maryland-to-Butler:



Game Mins Pts Rebs O Rebs D Rebs O Reb % D Reb % Ptper40 Rper40 ORper40 DRper40
Pre-Md 365 117 148 74 74 24.9 21.4 12.8 16.2 8.1 8.1
Md to end 382 106 161 70 91 20.9 27.5 11.1 16.9 7.3 9.5


His defensive rebounding was better from Maryland on, but his offensive rebounding was actually better before Maryland. His per 40 scoring was a little better before Maryland, too, and his overall rebounding per 40 was almost the same. Overall, his production while in the game was very similar before and after the supposed epiphany. The only major difference was minutes per game.

Yes, That's true, but his foul problems kept him from playing more. I always thought the major differences before and after the Maryland game wereconfidence and being treated more fairly by the referees.

[greybeard]

Brian played a unique and extremely unusual offensive role. He brought floor an intensity and consistency on the offensive end that to me was as astounding, as it was effective. That alone makes comparisons between brian and Miles meaningless in terms of value added.

For what this is worth, I think that Brian had an extremely high basketball IQ. I thought that he saw the game extremely well. I also thought that he was driven by the disappointment thathad enshrowed his basketball at Duke from the time he arrived. If there is a guy who was criticized and dismissed by Duke fandom as much as Brian, I haven't seen him. I think that he played his senior year to claim his rightful place as a steller basketball player, a place that a number of circumstances not of his own making (my view, I know some disagree and that's okay) had unfairly been deprived to him. I do not think that Brian in his wildest dreams thought that his value as a ballplayer would be manifest the way it was, but, when the opportunity presented itself, the young man ruled and he gloried in it.

I do not think that Miles has the basketball IQ that Brian did, but I think that he has much more potential as a scorer this year than perhaps Brian ever did (the caveat being, as I said many times, if Duke played inside on pass penetration anything like it is playing now, Brian might well have been a terrific inside scorer; Duke didn't so we'll never know). If Miles continues to soften through this torso (core muscles, ribs, trapesios muscles, neck, and shoulders, his hands will improve dramatically. If that happens, look out. The jump shot, already there, will improve and will be available off the bounce. He will score the ball or get fouled whenever he gets inside the defense or paint with the ball, and his nose for offensive rebounds will yield many more positive plays--one handed catches, no more rushed put backs that cause him to lose the ball or advantage when he shouldn't.

In the sense that Miles has a tremendous upside to how he might finish his career at Duke, I think that he and Brian have a lot in common. I also think that they share a generousity of spirit that did, in Brian's case, and can in Miles, take their teams to an entirely different level. I like and admire both of them. I think their teammates do too. I think that Miles' game has improved tremendously this year over years past. He has no reason whatsoever to be anything but proud of his play to date. I hope that destiny takes this guy to much higher heights. I'm reasonably certain that Brian does too. These guys are cut of the same cloth; that, to me, is a complement to both.

[roywhite]

I do not think that Miles has the basketball IQ that Brian did, but I think that he has much more potential as a scorer this year than perhaps Brian ever did (the caveat being, as I said many times, if Duke played inside on pass penetration anything like it is playing now, Brian might well have been a terrific inside scorer; Duke didn't so we'll never know). If Miles continues to soften through this torso (core muscles, ribs, trapesios muscles, neck, and shoulders, his hands will improve dramatically. If that happens, look out. The jump shot, already there, will improve and will be available off the bounce. He will score the ball or get fouled whenever he gets inside the defense or paint with the ball, and his nose for offensive rebounds will yield many more positive plays--one handed catches, no more rushed put backs that cause him to lose the ball or advantage when he shouldn't.



Your posts and observations are always interesting. Could you clarify this area?

Are you saying Miles should do less weight training as it relates to his torso muscles, or just that he could improve by relaxing somewhat on the court?
I'm certainly in favor of whatever might improve Miles' hands, which would help his game considerably.

[Kedsy]

Yes, That's true, but his foul problems kept him from playing more. I always thought the major differences before and after the Maryland game were confidence and being treated more fairly by the referees.

I completely agree. I think after his huge numbers in the Maryland game, everyone -- the refs, the opponents, his teammates, and Brian himself -- all looked at him with a bit more respect. It's obviously a subconscious thing, but I think refs blow the whistle a little more if they think the player is a dork. Opponents don't try to take as much advantage of a player whose skills they respect, which (in sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy) makes things easier for the player. And, of course, players who play with confidence play better, too. I think all those things contributed to his getting fewer fouls called on him after the Maryland game.

[UrinalCake]

Anyone else catch during the Maryland game when they were talking about Alex Len and how he had a great game against Carolina but struggled in the two games against Duke? The commentator said that Duke's front line is much more physical than UNC's. And that commentator was none other than - wait for it - Len Elmore, the Maryland grad himself!

[throatybeard]

These statistics are very nice, but what we need to discuss more is that Miles is only just now growing into his beard. You can't just grow a beard and expect to be a rebounding machine. It takes time for the body to adjust.

Today I collected six offensive rebounds just walking from the train to my office.

[hq2]

The commentator said that Duke's front line is much more physical than UNC's. And that commentator was none other than - wait for it - Len Elmore, the Maryland grad himself!

Ahem. Didn't quite look that way head to head!

[flyingdutchdevil]

No offense to Miles, but Zoubeard > Plumbeard. And it's not even close.

[Jderf]

Anyone else catch during the Maryland game when they were talking about Alex Len and how he had a great game against Carolina but struggled in the two games against Duke? The commentator said that Duke's front line is much more physical than UNC's. And that commentator was none other than - wait for it - Len Elmore, the Maryland grad himself!

I didn't catch the comment, but knowing Elmore, I can only assume it was a veiled insinuation about Duke roughing up Maryland and getting all the calls.

[HaveFunExpectToWin]

No offense to Miles, but Zoubeard > Plumbeard. And it's not even close.

Ahh, but Plumhawk > Zoubuzz.

[DukieInBrasil]

Yeah, as soon as Miles had a Zoubesque big game against Maryland the comparisons would come out.
As we recall, the person Zoubs took the starting job from was none other than Miles himself! But, like
Zoubs, one good game against not very good comp does not a season make. Since in the previous game
against Carolina he was not particularly effective (how could they have let that skinny John Henson
get 16, or was it 17 rebounds? He's not that good!), it's a little early (or maybe late!) to jump on the
Miles bandwagon. He's a player who has consistently demonstrated his inconsistency, along with questionable hands and feet, and not particularly good lateral movement. I'm gonna wait to see him do it against some
better comp before I'm convinced.

Which was exactly one of the things that vexed Zoubek himself even as a Sr. As Kedsy has pointed out the inconsistency was largely a product of foul trouble, in that his per 40 minute #s were pretty steady, but his minutes fluctuated wildly. Miles minutes fluctuate wildly as well, sometimes due to fouls but not as often. The issues of confidence, respect and refs all affected Big Z to varying degrees pre-MD breakout, but increased confidence seemed to be the unifying ingredient in his post-MD surge. It may simply be a question of confidence for MP I, and if he has discovered that magic ingredient, then maybe his time has finally arrived. Then again, we've been periodically announcing "Miles has arrived!" after a particularly impressive game, only to see him play a more diminished role afterwards.
Don't try to be convinced though, just try to enjoy a young man playing a game, and celebrate it when he plays to his potential.

[throatybeard]

I bet this dude can rebound better than Bernie Janicki:

2401

[devildeac]

I bet this dude can rebound better than Bernie Janicki:

2401

Grandpa Throaty?

Great grandpa Throaty?

[greybeard]

Your posts and observations are always interesting. Could you clarify this area?

Are you saying Miles should do less weight training as it relates to his torso muscles, or just that he could improve by relaxing somewhat on the court?
I'm certainly in favor of whatever might improve Miles' hands, which would help his game considerably.

Weight training probably has something to do with it, but it almost certainly exascerbates a preceeding habit and a misconception by Miles about what it takes to improve on how he does what he wants, to improve his hands and much more. Please understand that what follows is just a somewhat educated first approximation of what I think might help Miles improve, a theory about what is behind the struggle and inconsistency we see in Miles' game and how he might improve it. What follows I will try to keep simple and digestable, I am sure unsuccessfully. On the chance that anyone is included to follow, I proceed with my theory.

What I see is someone who is quite rigid throughoiut his torso and also in movements of his head; I think it is the root cause of what are surprisingly "bad hands" and awkward movements either to catch or score the ball inside. I say surprising because when at speed running down the court Miles presents as the incredible athlete he is, and that includes how he finishes.

Basic tenent: If you are rigid through your core it is your FLEXO9R MUSCLES that are the root cause of it. That rigidity will produce what presents as inherent awkwardness through use of the feet (commonly called bad footwork), bad timing and awkwardness going up (bad or no coordination), and an inability to consistantly catch and control the ball (bad hands). There is nothing "inherent" about aany of those things, which we have seen in both Zoubek and also in Miles. That both players have no such inherent defects is exemplified even to the uninitiated by how each performs in incredibly "athletic looking" and effective ways. I have described when Miles best displays the athlete that he is. Zoubek displayed terrific footwork to gain advantage when he first arrived, and at times during his senior year, when K went to him, usually early in games, including the championship one. He also showed terrific tempo, coordination, and hands on the free throw line.

Both, I believe, hold certain upside down concepts that they are sure and have consistently been told are essential for good inside play but instead work only to sabotaged it. The message to tall guys from the start, is to "stand up straight" and that to do that one must tighten around the core, hold their shoulders unnaturally and unathletically back and high, and of course have no bend in the neck. Try that posture and see how well you do-see how easy it is to have smooth fotwor, to perform tasks in a "coordinated" manner, to have dexterity and softness in your hands. Trust me, you'll get the picture right quick.

Back to the flexors. Flexors are the muscles that articulate joints, that cause folding. They include most importantly what we call the big muscles of our core, the related continiguous muscles that pull chins down towards the chests, back of heads and shoulders closer together, forarms towards shoulders, and heals toward butts. When one group fires the rest do as well. These muscles are meant to work quickly, powerfully and only very briefly.

So, if you believe that standing up straight is connected to tight abs, to hold the head up is connected to tight pecs, to pull your shoulders back is a good thing, standing in an athletic position will be extraordinarily difficult--your erector muscles not only have to contend with the pull of gravity, but also overcome the pull of their antagonists, the flexors. Even if the flexors are not purposefully tightened, habituation will cause tightening to happen without awareness of it. Muscles that are habitually being tightened also hold tension, in my parlence, residual tension or acture.

This, I believe, has been a longstanding misconception of both Zoubek and Miles and remains so this day.

The training room does nothing to improve the ability of such athletes towards optimal performance and agility, no matter how diverse and complicated the training methods employed are. Thye core muscles get a temendous amount of attention, an athlete like Miles and Zoubek have no idea which muscles do what (a problem commonly shared I believe by many high end "athletes and the source of many groin, inner thigh, and hamstring strains and tears). The consequence is that they can't win for trying; in fact, the more they try with their stronger muscle mass the worser the sabotaging action becomes.

With practice some of this self sabotaging behavior can be reduced, but rarely by repetition or how to directions. I saw last night on the Golf Channel, Greg Norman giving a lesson for the masses about the short game. He provided certain meta information about a few basics that are essential for short game play. He said time nd again, "Don't be afraid to experiment," that that is essential to find out what works for you. Some of the practice players get to do, permits of such exploration. However, even during their on your own time, little exploration actually gets done. The drills that have been drilled into them are too often simply replicated, with no understanding about why no improvement is seen (some might recall that I saw the same rigidity in Mason's approach to foul shooting, an approach that had two stopping points, and depended on muscles that were a complete crap shoot, the purposeful firing of flexors to release the ball).

So, the simple direction to relax more will undoubtedly help, but I doubt will not provide nearly the help that lots of time for meaningful experimentation with finding softness of various parts, in various combinations, and with varied timing would produce. Having the assistance of a trained professional would, I believe, be invaluable.

There is a highly regarded person on staff at Duke University Hospital who would be an ideal person for such a task. She is a rehab specialist (a certified PT), but more importantly a certified practitioner of the Feldenkrais Method. In fact, I noticed recently that studies have been done at Duke regarding the efficacy of the method, I believe either in the rehab context or improving balance and performance issues encountered in aging. The results have been quite favorable.

So, at a minimum, Miles would benefit by knowing that relaxing, softening through his core, allowing his shoulders to drop and loosen, to let go of his head and let it round his shoulders and soften his spine will improve his ability to play as he would like. He should be encouraged and given the time to experiment, and it wouldn't hurt if he picked out some athletes of his size who play with great ease and produce results and carefully watched film of them, focusing on where they seemed to be soft and where not so soft, what type of effort and the timing and sequence manifest when they performed different movements, imagine what it felt like to "walk in that way," and then try to replicate what you imagined and experiment until he finds the keys that work for him. I am confident that he will quickly surprise himself and the rest of us with how he shows up.

By the way, if muscles are tight, if your core is constricted, the timing of the use of muscles to perform the tasks at hand is considerably diminished, as is their ability to do the work you want. The wider apart the parts that need to be articulated are, the softer that the muscles that bring them together are, the greater and more measured the work they produce can be, and so it is with the timing of when that work is done. Nature knows no other possibilities.

If you are still reading, I hope that you find some of this of value, if not for Miles, than perhaps for yourselves.

[BluDvlsN1]

I believe this is relative to the discussion,I didn't see this linked yet!
(if it's redundant, my apologies)

http://dukechronicle.com/article/plum-meled

I think our whole base has been pulling for MP1 all year!
He can be integral in the late season run for us!

Zoubs hung in their and carved a place for himself in Duke history,
From what MP1says, that fact doesn't appear to be overlooked!

Stats aside, I'll take motivation and personal determination to tip the balance!
Stats and records are there for the breaking, rooting for MP1!!

[SupaDave]

Today I collected six offensive rebounds just walking from the train to my office.

I really only wanted to approve this comment but apparently I need to spread some love around. THIS was seriously funny man! Especially after I imagined a beard reaching out and helping to secure rebounds while walking down the street.