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View Full Version : Our Defense vs. UNC (and a few numbers)



tommy
02-11-2012, 03:20 AM
It's a little hard to engage in close analysis of our defense and its continued shortcomings after the thrilling win over UNC, including the sheer number of 3's that we drained, but still I do think it's worth looking at.

First, the good: Without question, we played 40 minutes of basketball with intensity and focus. Much like we did against Virginia Tech. It's just that UNC obviously is way, way more talented than is Va Tech, so that intensity did not yield the same results, especially defensively. But one of the big questions coming in after the lackluster effort against Miami was: which team will show up? We wanted to believe, given the opponent, that it would be the team that was dialed in like they were against Va Tech and Maryland, but many were not confident of that, and feared that Miami was an indication that this team just might not have the hunger to be great.

Well they certainly displayed that hunger in this game, and got the ultimate result to show for it. That's not to say that we didn't make mental errors on defense -- we did. But they were fewer than in most of our other games, and I did not perceive a lack of focus, intensity, or commitment on the defensive end. At all.

But truth be told, the defensive execution -- not the effort, but the execution -- was not very good. It didn't take much in the way of basketball IQ to see that we were manhandled for much of the game in the paint. We were beaten badly by Zeller on one-on-one post moves. They killed us on the offensive boards, with lots and lots of second chance opportunities. In the second half Barnes was very effective both jumpshooting and around the basket. We had our usual trouble stopping dribble penetration, most notably of course against Marshall.

Though Zeller did have his way in particular in the first half, when I charted this game I did note a number of instances where we actually did a good job in denying entry passes into him and their other guys in the post. Ryan Kelly did that well, in particular, and Miles too. It's just that when Zeller did get it, he scored it. The bigs did a decent job providing help as well. As for the dribble penetration, the main culprit was Thornton, who was beaten four times that I noted.

OK here are the stop percentage numbers for this game. As you can see, they're awful.




Stops
Hoops
Stop%


Curry
20
25
44%


Rivers
28
36
44%


Dawkins
13
17
43%


Mason
27
32
46%


Thornton
23
29
44%


Kelly
19
26
42%


Miles
12
20
38%


Cook
3
12
20%


Gbinije





Hairston
0
1
0%


TEAM
29
40
42%



























The obvious outlier is Cook. We just didn't get any stops with him in the game. Which might explain why he didn't play in the last 12 minutes of this game.

I'm also disappointed again in Miles on this metric. Though his individual numbers on other measurables that I charted, like help defense, denial, etc. weren't bad, he just got beaten for a lot of baskets in the context of how many possessions he played and how many shots he caused to be missed. Those types of numbers and others, including Defensive Efficiency Ratings for all the guys and the team as a whole will be up very soon at Airowe's dukehoopblog.com.

OK here are the updated cumulative stop % numbers.




Stops
Hoops
Stop%


Curry
310
291
51.6%


Rivers
358
325
52.4%


Dawkins
224
229
49.4%


Mason
298
290
50.7%


Thornton
217
184
54.1%


Kelly
282
251
52.9%


Miles
192
186
50.8%


Cook
151
139
52.1%


Gbinije
31
41
43.1%


Hairston
79
67
54.1%


TEAM
430
396
52.1%

devildeac
02-11-2012, 07:31 AM
Another sincere thank you for your analysis. I think I read somewhere else here that we are now the #1 team for offensive efficiency after our 85 point outburst against a top 15 (?) defensive team. Can you/anyone find/link what our defensive performance did to our overall/national ranking? 80s? 90s? Better? Worse? Thanks!

MChambers
02-11-2012, 08:58 AM
Another sincere thank you for your analysis. I think I read somewhere else here that we are now the #1 team for offensive efficiency after our 85 point outburst against a top 15 (?) defensive team. Can you/anyone find/link what our defensive performance did to our overall/national ranking? 80s? 90s? Better? Worse? Thanks!
Defense is now 99th in Pomeroy (was over 100 yesterday). Amazingly weak.

The good news is that this team could be very successful with a relatively small improvement. There's been no sign of that thus far this season, however.

sagegrouse
02-11-2012, 09:00 AM
Another sincere thank you for your analysis. I think I read somewhere else here that we are now the #1 team for offensive efficiency after our 85 point outburst against a top 15 (?) defensive team. Can you/anyone find/link what our defensive performance did to our overall/national ranking? 80s? 90s? Better? Worse? Thanks!

It's on the front page of KenPom (http://kenpom.com/). Adjusted Defense is #99; Adjusted Offense is #1.

sage
'BTW, the front page of KenPom is the only place you can go without paying the piper!'

davekay1971
02-11-2012, 09:21 AM
Thank you for the analysis! I threw a pitchfork at you but forgot to sign it. At any rate, this breakdown continues to be a very helpful way to look at our defensive (in)efficiency. Alas, I still don't see any solutions other than...keep scoring, baby!

Note: while my proposed solution is very much tongue-in-cheek, there's something to the idea, given this team's depth, the athleticism of our bigs, and our perimeter players' ability to drain the 3 and finish in transition, to pull a Westphal and just outscore everyone we play. My lord, the idea of this team just opening it up and running the court, 7 seconds a possession, with full court press all game is kind of scary. You can't realistically make that massive shift in style 3/4 of the way through a season, nor do I really think it would improve our outcomes...but it would be a heck of a thing to watch in action.

DoubleDuke Dad
02-11-2012, 10:17 AM
Note: while my proposed solution is very much tongue-in-cheek, there's something to the idea, given this team's depth, the athleticism of our bigs, and our perimeter players' ability to drain the 3 and finish in transition, to pull a Westphal and just outscore everyone we play. My lord, the idea of this team just opening it up and running the court, 7 seconds a possession, with full court press all game is kind of scary. You can't realistically make that massive shift in style 3/4 of the way through a season, nor do I really think it would improve our outcomes...but it would be a heck of a thing to watch in action.

Defense? We don’t need no stinkin’ defense! :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lj056ao6GE