Phase IV (2011/2012)

[SilkyJ]

We enter Phase IV with a 20-4 record against the toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom. This phase will cover the remainder of the regular season beginning with the Terps tmrw. I am dividing this into two parts: Part 1 will be more about issues concerning the team as a whole, and Part 2 will play off some of the more player specific themes in prior phase posts.

I saw the past phase as our opportunity to continue to identify flaws, tinker with lineups, and see what works. I see this final 7 game stretch as our opportunity to take that knowledge and fill in the gaps so we move from a top 10-15 team (I know we’re ranked a bit higher, but that’s where I see us) and sweet 16 type to a top 3-5 and final four type. What happens now determines how far we go in March.

PART 1

1) What’s Missing
To borrow from K: this team is 20-4 against the hardest schedule in the country. Clearly they know how to do something right. Offensively we have 5 players capable of giving you 20 on any given night, which is a rarity for any team (Austin, Seth, Dre, Ryan and Mason and out of those 5, all but Mason have done it at least 3 times this year, Mason only once.)

Since players started leaving Duke early, there aren’t many teams that can boast this same plethora of offensive riches, and those that can were very, very special: the ’04 team (Redick, Sheld, Deng, Ewing, Duhon) and the ’01 team (Jwill, Battier, Dunleavy, Boozer, James). You can also argue for the ’99 team, with Avery, Brand, Maggette, Langdon and either Carrawell/Battier (they had one 20pt game b/w them that year). That’s 3 final fours and a NC b/w them. Impressive.

“Gee, thanks Silky. We know this team is really good on offense, we’re ranked 1st in Kenpom. Our defense is obviously the issue—we’re ranked 102nd.” Fair enough. All those teams I mentioned were really good on defense too. But I’d argue the major difference, what’s really missing, is Leadership. The leader on the floor who is more than a go-to scorer. The guy who makes big baskets, takes charges, makes the critical block, barks orders on defense, motivates the team in huddle, steadies the team when the other team makes a run. The guy all the other guys listen to and trust.

In ’04 it was Duhon, ’01 it was Battier along with Nate, ’99 it was Trajan. (In 2010 it was Jon and Lance). Moreover, I would point to years like '02 when we had an enormous load of talent jwill, booz, dun, dahntay, and duhon, but had the void left by Battier. This year we have the void left by Nolan and Kyle and nobody has stepped up to fill that role. We can improve in lots of technical areas, but unless someone(s) fills this role I believe we will fail to realize the vast potential this team has.

2) Defense, Defense, Defense
Its not surprising that Kedsy has amongst the most pitchforks of anyone on the board. In his Phase 0 post he alluded to a potential issue with our team D in late October. As we’ve all debated the transformational potential of our offense with Quinn Cook as our PG (a bandwagon on which I was/am a driver or conductor), Kedsy has routinely pointed out that the potential of our team does not lie in transforming our offense, but in our defense. At that time (early Jan) we were around 50th in Kenpom. As I mentioned before we are down to 102nd.

By now we’ve all seen it, commented on it, yelled at our TVs about it, but it seems to become more and more apparent each game. We struggle to contain ball penetration. We give up too many easy shots to big men. We let down our guard at times. Defense is about hustle and effort, but even when we seem to be trying we don’t seem to play defense that well. Miles, who was playing well in late December and early January seems to have regressed. Mason and Ryan are OK, but inconsistent. Our guards try to apply pressure on the ball, but lack the footspeed to keep up.

The good news for us is that we have a master motivator AND defensive teacher/tactician on our bench. I don’t think we can teach defense to this team in the next 7 games, but we can motivate them to play harder and we can make adjustments. The problem is that we need that leader to help us play harder, and K is not usually inclined to getting away from his in your face man to man strategy. I’ll come back to this later.

(There’s also the question of who guards a Harrison Barnes type player...which I’ll also come back to)

3) Rotation
The rotation still appears to be a bit in flux, though mostly coming together. The post rotation has always been more steady than the backcourt, and given our defense and leadership issues, its not surprising that Tyler is playing more. (I’ll eat a bit of crow here—I thought Quinn’s on ball D was about as good as Tyler’s a month or two ago, and that does not appear to be the case any longer).

As I alluded to above, there had been comments about shaking up the rotation in order to improve our offense. The rotation now looks like it will hinge more on who plays better D, who communicates better and who steps up in crunch time to get a stop, just as importantly as who steps up in crunch time to get us buckets.

4) In K We Trust
Adjustments need to be made, particularly on defense. I don’t know exactly what they are, but this team is not living up to its potential. We are too skilled, talented and athletic (yes Doug Gottlied, I said it. Austin, Dre, Mason, Miles are all very, very good athletes) to be playing the way we are on defense. We may lack some footspeed, discipline, or defensive knowledge, but I say that given the ingredients here, the best coach of all time, and the coach with more defensive players of the year than anyone in the history of college basketball ought to be able to cook up something.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say I expect it, but you look at 2010 (inserting Zoubek) and 2001, (inserting Duhon) and K has a knack for making adjustments that take teams to the next level. I think filling the leadership gap is part of it, but I’m curious to see what, if at all, he comes up with this time. Do we insert Gbinije at times? Do we press? Halfcourt trap? Play more zone? Again, I don’t know what the answers are, but I hope something is done here. In K we trust.

PART 2

5) Austin
After his “benching” (K doesn’t like that word) several games ago, Austin returned as a starter with renewed vigor on both ends of the floor and appears to be our goto guy on both ends of the floor. He has all the tools to be and has at times been our best perimeter defender. After some poor decision making and careless turnovers on offense earlier this year, he has clearly adjusted to the college game and is finding teammates more, turning the ball over less (he has a positive A/TO ratio in the 6 games since his benching, compared to a negative A/TO ratio for the year), and making better decisions on drives. Not to mention he’s shooting it at a 40% clip from 3.

And of course, there’s the UNC game. Not that he needed more confidence, but what a boost that should give him. I expect him to play more fluidly on offense, be our goto player consistently, and emerge into an AA type over the rest of the season. One question: can he be the one, as a freshman, to fill our leadership gap?

6) Mason’s Offense
The previous phases have commented on our Big Man Offense in general, but I want to highlight Mason in particular. We have seen him become a real offensive force this year developing effective hook shots with both hands and some nifty moves for up and unders, drop steps, etc. Teams now have to consider doubling him. That speaks volumes about his progression and gives us a 2nd go-to guy that can get his own shot, the other obviously being Austin. Not to mention, doubling him opens up shots for two of the best shooters in the country: Seth and Dre.

While our offense isn’t in need of much help, come tournament time on a cold shooting night, its always nice to have a guy who shoots 59% to dump it into.

7) The Enigma that is Andre Dawkins
A recurring theme in the phase posts. Heck, one of the most recurring themes on this board over the last ~2 years, only recently supplanted this year by “play Quinn Cook more.”

While my title might be a bit harsh, it still gets the point across. Andre shows us flashes for a bit then disappears, then reappears only a game later to make us think the last game was a fluke, only to disappear again two games later. He scored in single digits and averaged 3.5ppg in 4 games against W Mich, Penn, Temple and GA Tech, then scored in double figures in 4 straight games against UVA, Clemson, WFU, and FSU. Then scored 3 against MD, 14 against ST John’s, 5 at VA Tech, 3 against Miami and 8 against UNC. The lone bright spot being some solid D at VA tech, which was mitigated somewhat by his tendency to WOOF too much.

The staff can control this issue somewhat. We all noticed him in the past losing focus on both ends and I think its b/c we weren’t running enough plays for him. Now we seem to run him off baseline screens consistently, which keeps him more in the flow so that even if his shot is off for a while, he remains in the flow and focused. At VA tech, for example, he only took 3 shots, but played 20+ minutes, and was active on both ends.

8) Health
The team has been remarkably healthy all year. The occasional cold or spasm has flared up, but its been mostly to role players and there haven’t been major setbacks. With this team’s wide distribution of points amongst its scorers and no 1 focal point on offense, any gaps are easily filled for 1 game, so this team looks to be in good shape moving forward. Nonetheless, health always remains key.

[Kedsy]

Great post, SilkyJ. You laid it all out there. The only thing I'd add is can we bring focus and intensity every game for 40 minutes?

I understand one might fold this into the leadership issue, but it seems to me while it's easier to bring it if you have a strong leader exhorting you on, it's certainly possible to bring the sort of focus we need without an on-court leader. After all, as you've noted, we have an awfully strong off-court leader on our bench.

It also seems to me that if each player consistently brings his intensity, it will be easier for a leader (especially if that leader is a freshman) to step up and lead. It's hard to lead guys who aren't focused. So I think it's two separate questions, the answers to both of which will have a lot to say about how far this team can go.

Again, great work. Thanks for doing this Phase post.

[Kedsy]

The problem is that we need that leader to help us play harder, and K is not usually inclined to getting away from his in your face man to man strategy. I’ll come back to this later.

(There’s also the question of who guards a Harrison Barnes type player...which I’ll also come back to)

Also, I hope you really do come back to these questions later. I'm interested in hearing your views.

[Newton_14]

Great job SilkyJ. Well done. The leadership comments are on the money. You would think that out of 10 guys, at least 1 would be capable of taking on that mantle. I honestly thought someone would eventually step up. Starting the year, I put my money on Seth. He seemed poised and ready, but two problems emerged. One, the guy is just quiet by nature, and very soft spoken. Maybe he just isn't comfortable being the guy to bark orders at teammates and keep them focused. 2nd, the OSU game combined with the ankle injury set him back. He slumped during a key development time for the team, lost the starting PG role and basically had to start over at SG. He has bounced back of late, and I expect he will finish the year strong with his game, but doubt he takes on the leadership role at this point. I think we could write a story about all of the potential leaders and could easily identify reasons why all likely will not step up at this point and take the role... except for one guy. Austin "I just muted 22,000 UNC Fans all at once" Rivers.

The old adage "He is no longer a freshman" rings true here. Austin has developed enough to where it may be time for him to take the reins and lead. I could be wrong, but I believe the potential is there. He has 4 years experience at the High School level being the guy who led the team, so unlike most of the others, he at least knows how to do it, albeit on a much smaller stage. Maybe it is time to take Greg Newton's advice and hand the ball to "Austin Rivers, PG for Duke". Run the set that was run on the final play at times in a pseudo 4 out 1 in, with Mason on the pick and roll with Austin, and 3 shooters in Andre, Seth, and Ryan on the perimeter. Would be extremely hard to defend. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Austin becomes the tip of the spear on defense. Andre defends the SF, Seth defends the SG. Quinn backs up Austin, with Austin getting a short breather or moving off the ball with Andre going out when Quinn comes in and Austin stays in. Tyler can sub for any of the 3 perimeter guys. Outlandish idea? Maybe. Looking forward to how K plays it down the stretch.

Aside from X's and O's, the big key is playing hard tip to finish. This 20-4 team has shown they can play with and beat anybody when they bring the Duke Heat for 40 minutes, going all out every possession. They could oh so easily be 23-1 right now, with an unblemished ACC Record, or at least 22-2, with losses only to OSU and Temple. Which is mind-boggling given the constant criticism they have taken from the Duke fanbase and everyone else since the OSU game.

Tomorrow is key. They have to build on the UNC win and let Maryland know early there will be no upset. I am concerned about a let down after such an emotional win against the Heels. That could easily happen, so let's hope the staff is working overtime to devise a plan to help the guys avoid that.

[Newton_14]

Also, I hope you really do come back to these questions later. I'm interested in hearing your views.

I second this request. I for one have missed having SilkyJ posting on a regular basis.

[SilkyJ]

Also, I hope you really do come back to these questions later. I'm interested in hearing your views.


The problem is that we need that leader to help us play harder, and K is not usually inclined to getting away from his in your face man to man strategy. I’ll come back to this later.

Sry--I was a little unclear here. Section 4, In K We Trust, is meant to address this one. The post was so long I started cutting down some things.

I don't know what the answers are or what K (the master) will do, but we need adjustments of a significant nature (think '01 or '09, imo). I don't see the path, but I hope he does.



(There’s also the question of who guards a Harrison Barnes type player...which I’ll also come back to)


I must have deleted this sentence accidentally when editing. Was referring to this with Austin in section 5 as our best perimeter defender and then also added:

I think this is done somewhat by committee with Dre, and potentially Tyler. Dre has the tools, and has lots of time playing against 3s (remember he went against Kyle in practice a lot of last year), but seems to lack focus and instinct, and an occasional dose of Tyler is always liable to knock a guy off balance. Other option is play Gbinije or Hairston a whole lot more. Rare, but not unheard of or out of the ordinary (see Williams, Elliot).

[53n206]

Big men need to "stuff" instead of "shoot" when close. Could we set up double screens for a shooter? The in the paint scoring disparity of UNC vs Duke is not to be believed. If this continues we'd be better off with throwing up 3s and running to defend. Notwithstanding, great team effort, wonderful victory,marvelous Duke team!

[OldSchool]

Great post, SilkyJ.

I certainly agree that a basketball team is more effective with a clear leader or a couple of leaders who are on the same page. It would be nice to have that, but what concerns me more watching this team has been undeveloped team basketball IQ. Communication, communication, communication. Guys on defense need to recognize more quickly what the offensive team is trying to do and react to it more quickly and communicate better.

When even Stillman White can find Tyler Zeller wide open under the basket with a half-court pass, our guys are simply not seeing what is happening and reacting to it quickly enough. When they really focus and concentrate they can play defense at a really high level and they are in fact slowly getting better if for no other reason than experience and repetition. In class sometimes you see two kinds of people - a guy who attends the lectures, grasps it all immediately, never cracks the book again and sits down for the final exam and does really well. Another type of person has to work through it all, slowly putting the pieces together and by the time of the final exam has a solid grasp of the material and also does really well. This team seems to me like the second type of guy. If this team were to stay together for another year (although unfortunately we will lose Miles no matter what) I think this team might well be one of the best defensive teams among top Division I programs instead of one of the worst, just through experience and repetition making it more second nature.

We are very good offensively but that is because we have good offensive players. It is not because of a high team basketball IQ and that is evident in the fact that we are not a great passing team.

One of the most frustrating things is to watch us run the pick and roll. With guys like Austin and Mason this should be a devastating weapon for us. On a team with good shooters like Seth and Andre stationed on the wings and a second talented big guy like Ryan in the post to burn rotating defenders with a layup or step out for a three, our team, with the players we have, should be incapable of being defended. But for the most part, Austin uses the pick and roll as merely a high dribble screen. For all his talent, he has a ways to go in developing his passing ability before he begins to really see his potential. As a first step, Austin needs to work on getting the ball to the man setting the pick, for example Mason. This is about timing and creative passing. When the big defender comes out to hedge, Mason is behind the two defensive players and he needs the ball now. It could be a bounce pass or over the top. When you have bigs like Mason and Miles who can jump out of the gym and have pretty decent hands for big guys, we need to make better use of them. If Mason gets the ball in that situation, he is one step from a dunk, or if the defense rotates, you have Kelly there to score on a layup. The advantage of having veteran big guys who have played together is that our interior passing ability is not bad provided we can get into a position to make use of it. Or Rivers could cut to the rim on a give-and-go. In principle the pick-and-roll led by Austin should be the foundation of our offense. When executed well, it is much more effective than just giving the ball to Mason on the block and letting him try to back down his defender or trying to get Andre or Seth free on a screen for a jump shot.

Other concerns: matching up defensively with an athletic true small forward and free throw shooting. If we play more intelligent defense and become even more efficient offensively (our offensive potential is off the charts IMO) we can probably deal with the small forward issue but poor free throw shooting may ultimately be our Waterloo this year.

[Bob Green]

7) The Enigma that is Andre Dawkins

While my title might be a bit harsh, it still gets the point across. Andre shows us flashes for a bit then disappears, then reappears only a game later to make us think the last game was a fluke, only to disappear again two games later. He scored in single digits and averaged 3.5ppg in 4 games against W Mich, Penn, Temple and GA Tech, then scored in double figures in 4 straight games against UVA, Clemson, WFU, and FSU. Then scored 3 against MD, 14 against ST John’s, 5 at VA Tech, 3 against Miami and 8 against UNC. The lone bright spot being some solid D at VA tech, which was mitigated somewhat by his tendency to WOOF too much.

Great post, Silky J. Thanks for the hardwork which went into this phase post.

For Dawkins, I'm going to add rebounding and assists to the mix. We need more rebounds from Dawkins. He went on a two game streak with four boards per game (Maryland and Florida State) but in the last four games he has had only one rebound per game. The same goes with assists. He had two per game against Maryland and St. John's but followed up with 1, 1 and 0 in the last three games. Dawkins has made some nice entry passes into the paint so the big guys need to finish.

When Dawkins is hot his shot is a thing of beauty, but the team needs him to be more consistent with his shot as well as more aggressive chasing down rebounds and dishing to teammates. I'm a huge Dawkins fan and I'm confident he will make a difference down the stretch!

[gumbomoop]

A few comments on SilkyJ's question - which we've been discussing off and on all season - re who will guard a Barnes-type SF.

First, it's a good thing there aren't many such SF's; but sure enough, UK has the wonderful Gilchrist, and tOSU has Buford. Then there's Barnes. Maybe there are another 5-10 superb SFs, but I doubt it.

IMO, an opinion I offered in the UNC pre-game thread, Autin Rivers is our best bet. I wouldn't count on him for 35 minutes in such a role, and am glad K rotated many guys on Barnes in the second half.

But Rivers is quick, smart, court-aware, spirited, enthusiastic about being counted on both to score and defend. Austin is having a lot of fun right now, and that's among the reasons he hit the shot. But it's also why he had fun when matched with Barnes off and on in the first half. Perhaps many of you have noticed just how much Austin has improved, since China, on D, but I've noticed only in the last couple of weeks.

For this specific question, I offer Austin as a significant part of the answer. I am aware that, were Austin to be asked to fill this role for 35 minutes, game after game, we'd worry that his O would suffer from exhaustion. But Austin, easily more than any other player [only Miles, maybe, compares], is physically, mentally, emotionally, spiritually equipped to run all game long, or close to it. And he's easily the player who, even running all game long, is least likely to be ineffective on O.

In one obvious sense, what I'm claiming here is hardly surprising, for Austin has the top mpg average on the team, 2 mpg more than anyone else. He doesn't seem to get exhausted. His O is way ahead of his D, but his D is now pretty decent.

He's not "the answer" to the SF-problem, just a part of it. There's no good answer, so K simply has to manufacture a plausible-least-bad answer, as he did against UNC. I don't know that K has much choice but to rotate guys when Duke plays Barnes, Gilchrist, Buford, whoever else. But I saw nothing Wed eve that leads me to believe that Austin would be outmatched more than other options. And while UNC had other, non-Barnes, options when faced with the the reverse-task of guarding Duke's sort-of-SF [Bullock, Zeller.....], maybe some teams wouldn't have so many stellar options themselves.

[Kedsy]

IMO, an opinion I offered in the UNC pre-game thread, Autin Rivers is our best bet. I wouldn't count on him for 35 minutes in such a role, and am glad K rotated many guys on Barnes in the second half.

Here's a different take on the same observation (that Austin's D is much improved). Put Austin on the opposing PG and make the opposing SF try to beat us by himself. We've discussed this before as well, but I think it would be better than putting Austin on Barnes/Buford/Gilchrist, etc.

If he's guarding a PG, Austin is tall, hard to see over. His hands are very quick, and his feet are as quick as any we have. If he can shut down the opposing PG, then it makes it that much harder for the opposing bigs to get the ball in an easy position to score and forces the opposing SG and SF to handle the ball more than they're probably comfortable with. Sure Barnes had his way with our smaller defenders in the 2nd half, but most of his shots were at least contested, so (a) he's expending energy to get the shots; and (b) might not hit them (he did Wednesday, but Barnes won't always shoot that well on relatively difficult, contested shots). A player like Barnes or Buford may get his, but he rarely makes his teammates better. How many times did Barnes (or Buford in the Ohio State game) pass to a big man on the block? If a PG like Marshall has his way, they're all better.

Now, against UNC, putting Austin on Marshall is a bit dicey because that means Bullock has a 7 inch height advantage on the whoever's guarding him, but a 6'7" SG is even rarer in college than a 6'8" SF, so I'd worry about that against UNC but I wouldn't worry all that much about it generally.

Anyway, K hasn't shown any inclination to have Austin guard the opposing PG, so it probably won't happen, but I think it's an intriguing option.

[CoachJ10]

I agree with the overall theme that Austin, Andre and our perimeter play in general (with its frustrations on the defense and to a lesser degree offensive end) will dictate how the 2nd half of the season and tournament(s) will play out. But let me add that I think Ryan Kelly's and Miles Plumlee's play over the next few weeks will be critical factors in how well the Blue Devils play during that stretch.

Ryan, at times, has shown how important his offensive skills our to the Duke offense (just look at the UNC game in particular...) but his defense has been lackluster. He needs to play stronger than he has on defense (taking a charge is a good thing at times...moving your feet and cutting off defenders before they get to the hoop is even better). He has the IQ to be a very good defender...but like a lot of the guys, he just needs to play stronger and more decisive when he is on defense.

Miles is in the last few weeks of his college basketball experience...I hope he channels his inner Zoob, and just plays the game without the constant thinking. He seems like a great kid...have fun and finish strong by letting it all hang out. He can be a pleasant factor on offense and a force on defense if he would just let the game come to him.

[DukieInBrasil]

I agree with the overall theme that Austin, Andre and our perimeter play in general (with its frustrations on the defense and to a lesser degree offensive end) will dictate how the 2nd half of the season and tournament(s) will play out. But let me add that I think Ryan Kelly's and Miles Plumlee's play over the next few weeks will be critical factors in how well the Blue Devils play during that stretch.

Ryan, at times, has shown how important his offensive skills our to the Duke offense (just look at the UNC game in particular...) but his defense has been lackluster. He needs to play stronger than he has on defense (taking a charge is a good thing at times...moving your feet and cutting off defenders before they get to the hoop is even better). He has the IQ to be a very good defender...but like a lot of the guys, he just needs to play stronger and more decisive when he is on defense.

Miles is in the last few weeks of his college basketball experience...I hope he channels his inner Zoob, and just plays the game without the constant thinking. He seems like a great kid...have fun and finish strong by letting it all hang out. He can be a pleasant factor on offense and a force on defense if he would just let the game come to him.

Like tonight vs. MD, 13pts and 22boards, just a very motivated performance. Same opponent that marked Z's eruption, hopefully a similar result follows.

[loldevilz]

I'm expecting a few things to happen in this run towards March...

1) Miles is gonna get some big minutes along with his bro Mason. His performance today was Zoubekian.

2) Seth Curry is gonna run the point more and more. Even when Thornton's out there it seems like Seth has the ball in his hands more, that is when its not in Austin Rivers' hands.

3) Coach K is gonna tinker with the final guard spot. My hope is that Gbinije shows in practice how good his defense is and becomes that "missing piece" that makes our defense March-worthy.

I think this will be our main lineup moving forward:

Miles / Kelly
Mason / Hairston
???
Rivers
Curry

[Greg_Newton]

WRT Austin - I think we've seen a shift towards putting the ball in Austin's hand more often as the "lead guard" (K must have gotten around to reading my posts from December :p), and he's gotten so much better at using his first step as a way to drive-kick and benefit the offense in general without putting his head down and committing to a track.

I also think we're seeing another shift that might be just as important though - over the last 3-4 games, he's just been our best, most active all-around player. He's scoring, he's setting up teammates, he's defending the ball well, but he's also done a GREAT job of rotating on defense and getting deflections, hitting the boards and getting his hands on some important balls, even swatting a few shots from behind when rotations are slow. I think we're seeing him become a fiery leader-by-example; the game seems to have slowed down a little for him, and he's able to let his competitiveness and athletic gifts manifest themselves all over the court without overthinking things.

And of course, Miles made a convincing argument that he should have had a number on the list to himself today. Very interesting that this performance came on Sat, Feb 11 against UMD (Zoubek's was Sat, Feb 13 against UMD), and right after K had talked to him about Zoubek's transformation, and shown him videos of Zoubek rebounding.

If ^these three developments are for real, and not just flashes in the pan, I think they alone could be enough to put us in the top-tier pantheon. Really hope we continue to trend in the right direction.

[SilkyJ]

Anyway, K hasn't shown any inclination to have Austin guard the opposing PG, so it probably won't happen, but I think it's an intriguing option.

We've seen it once or twice, but today would have been the day to try it out vs Stoglin and we didn't. Agree it would be intriguing, but don't expect to see much of it down the stretch. Comparative advantage probably says we need even more help on the wing, and given the history we'll likely see him guard 2/3s.



If ^these three developments are for real, and not just flashes in the pan, I think they alone could be enough to put us in the top-tier pantheon. Really hope we continue to trend in the right direction.

Looking forward to seeing whether these were flashes or not. Channeling my inner Ozzie, I think Miles can move into the starting lineup, Austin can continue to initiate the offense and a final four run is within reach. We need to play with the energy and urgency that we showed the last two games, however, and also need to keep hitting from the outside. We shoot a LOT of jumpshots.

[Greg_Newton]

Looking forward to seeing whether these were flashes or not. Channeling my inner Ozzie, I think Miles can move into the starting lineup, Austin can continue to initiate the offense and a final four run is within reach. We need to play with the energy and urgency that we showed the last two games, however, and also need to keep hitting from the outside. We shoot a LOT of jumpshots.

Good point. At this point, it seems like we just have to have enough of our x-factors clicking each night to win; we don't have a reliable strategy, really, but we'll generally be in good shape if we can play with urgency, as you said, especially on defense, and a few of the following happen:

-Ryan goes for 15-20 points
-Curry gets hot and hits a few threes
-Dre gets hot and hits a few threes
-Rivers has a dominant, UNC-like game
-Miles gets like 100 rebounds
-Mason gets in a groove scoring on the block

Ideally, we'd like to have all cylinders clicking at once, but we have so many players who are explosive in their own way that we just need a few to play well on offense in each game.

Also, Austin's 4 assists today put him at 3.1 APG in the 6 games since the FSU loss, which is considerably higher than his season average (remove his goose egg against Miami, and it goes up to 3.8). I think the eye test has backed this up, and that he's quietly growing into the lead distributor role on the team. Good stuff.

[loldevilz]

A few comments on SilkyJ's question - which we've been discussing off and on all season - re who will guard a Barnes-type SF.

First, it's a good thing there aren't many such SF's; but sure enough, UK has the wonderful Gilchrist, and tOSU has Buford. Then there's Barnes. Maybe there are another 5-10 superb SFs, but I doubt it.

IMO, an opinion I offered in the UNC pre-game thread, Autin Rivers is our best bet. I wouldn't count on him for 35 minutes in such a role, and am glad K rotated many guys on Barnes in the second half.

But Rivers is quick, smart, court-aware, spirited, enthusiastic about being counted on both to score and defend. Austin is having a lot of fun right now, and that's among the reasons he hit the shot. But it's also why he had fun when matched with Barnes off and on in the first half. Perhaps many of you have noticed just how much Austin has improved, since China, on D, but I've noticed only in the last couple of weeks.

For this specific question, I offer Austin as a significant part of the answer. I am aware that, were Austin to be asked to fill this role for 35 minutes, game after game, we'd worry that his O would suffer from exhaustion. But Austin, easily more than any other player [only Miles, maybe, compares], is physically, mentally, emotionally, spiritually equipped to run all game long, or close to it. And he's easily the player who, even running all game long, is least likely to be ineffective on O.

In one obvious sense, what I'm claiming here is hardly surprising, for Austin has the top mpg average on the team, 2 mpg more than anyone else. He doesn't seem to get exhausted. His O is way ahead of his D, but his D is now pretty decent.

He's not "the answer" to the SF-problem, just a part of it. There's no good answer, so K simply has to manufacture a plausible-least-bad answer, as he did against UNC. I don't know that K has much choice but to rotate guys when Duke plays Barnes, Gilchrist, Buford, whoever else. But I saw nothing Wed eve that leads me to believe that Austin would be outmatched more than other options. And while UNC had other, non-Barnes, options when faced with the the reverse-task of guarding Duke's sort-of-SF [Bullock, Zeller.....], maybe some teams wouldn't have so many stellar options themselves.

I really think you are making this problem to be way more insignificant than it is. Its not just that we are going to hit a team with a really good wing scorer. Duke is ranked currently 99th in the country in defense according to kenpom. There just aren't many teams that can go far in March that struggle on defense like that. You simply cannot expect to win every game 85-84.

Maybe I'm the only one that believes this, but I think that the lack of a good wing defender is at least 50% of our defensive problems. Not only do we have problems with 1-on-1 defense, but we have problems switching. When you have a guy that can guard 4 positions like Lance Thomas did, then it makes it way easier to switch to defense. You also have a guy that can shut down the other teams best player. Frankly I think its absurd that we haven't let Gbinije play more. He has all the physical tools to be that guy. As good as Rivers is, he simply cannot guard big wings or quick forwards. Gbinije should be able to guard positions 1-4.

[toooskies]

I'm going to try and glean some statistical information about our defense, because no one seems to really know why our defense isn't that good. Focus/hustle/intensity have been referenced and that's a key, but exactly how those things have gone out the window is a little important.

But before that, I'd like to point out that all of our losses have not been explicitly about our defense. All our losses also correspond to below-average efficiencies on offense (partly because winning means being more efficient on offense than defense).

- Ohio State was our worst game efficiency-wise, both on offense and defense. As we knew at the time, an outlier if there ever was.
- Miami was our fourth-worst offensive game, and our worst in terms of effective FG% (essentially converting FG% and 3PT% into one number)
- Florida State was our second-worst eFG% game.
- Temple, Florida State, and Ohio State were also the games in which we got the lowest Free Throw Rate. Which means the refs weren't our friends in the losses, either (although OSU is a highly rated FTR defensive team, which means they don't foul much; the others are decidedly average, which means it was either an outlier game or the refs were biased).

OK, on to defense...
- So far this year, Duke has been a mediocre defensive team, with middle-of-the pack stats for eFG% (slightly above average), TO% (below average), and Offensive Rebound percentage (below average; this is effectively our defensive rebounding).
- What's uncharacteristic of Duke? Most Duke teams struggle at the defensive boards, so this isn't a concern for our defensive system. Turnover percentage is a concern, as we aren't as active in the passing lanes as we could be. What is most uncharacteristic is actually our "above average" stat, eFG%. Duke usually is a national leader each year in eFG%. In general, we let the other team make shots.
- Alright, so onto what has hurt our rating versus what has hurt us in games. Our best TO% seemed to be at the start of the season, as our top two TO% games were Michigan State and Kansas. Ever since, that rate has trailed, with every game other than VT and Temple having a turnover rate under 20% since Jan. 1. It hurts our stats in general, but I'm not sure this has lost a game this year. But getting turnovers, I think, may have won us the MSU and KU games. UNC was our low point in TO% to date, at 12.5%.
- Securing the defensive boards may have cost us games, as Miami and Temple were two of our bottom 3 defensive rebounding performances.
- eFG% has hurt us this year as OSU, FSU, and Temple have been our worst efforts. Those results are the same as 2011 Arizona, 2011 St. John's, and 2010 NC State. 2010 Georgetown was as much worse than those results as those results were from a typical Duke defensive performance, in terms of eFG%. The difference: Duke lost the 2010 and 2011 games really, really badly. This year, we were competitive in two of the three games.
- By the numbers, we're playing solid 3-point defense, giving them few 3-point shots and at low percentage success rates. We're one of the best teams in preventing 3s in the country, at the expense of allowing lots of 2-point shots. Then again, every Duke team has succeeded at this.

The "eye test" would say that a lot of the above is correct. We haven't played apparently tough D, so the other team isn't making stupid mistakes, so less turnovers. Players are driving on our perimeter, leading to layups or dishes to big men, leading to more efficient two-point shots. The height disadvantage hasn't been as apparent, however; no one seems to be shooting over us from the 3-point line, but they may be jumping over us for 2nd-chance points.

Next, let's look at individuals and see what they might do to improve.
- Our interior D's foul rate is down across the front line. Mason, Ryan and Miles have each improved their foul rate the past two years; however for Mason and Miles, this has led to fewer steals, and for Mason and Ryan, fewer blocks. Ryan has significantly fewer blocks than last year. This may be a calculation to prevent them from fouling out and seeing the bottom drop out of our interior D.
- Tyler steals the ball less often this year, but fouls slightly less. His increase in minutes may have hurt his "burst" potential. - In terms of TOs, we miss Kyrie more than we miss Nolan and Kyle. Although I'm sure we miss their lock-down D as well, but individuals don't get eFG% marks.


A bright sign: the most similar season to Miles Plumlee's 2012? Brian Zoubek's 2010.

[Kedsy]

Duke is ranked currently 99th in the country in defense according to kenpom. There just aren't many teams that can go far in March that struggle on defense like that.

For reference, the following are Pomeroy defensive efficiencies on February 27, 2011, for the teams t hat went "far" last March:

Final Four:

UConn: #32
Butler: #96
Kentucky: #38
VCU: #156

Final Eight:

Arizona: #50
Florida: #45
Kansas: #11
UNC: #15

Currently Duke stands at #83 after the Maryland game. Which is better than two Final Four teams from last year. Also, note that we jumped 16 spots with one good defensive performance against Maryland's 119th ranked offense. If we continue to play solid D in our next five games against NC State, BC, FSU, Va Tech, and Wake, perhaps we'll pass 2011 Arizona and Florida and be hanging around where Kentucky and UConn were last year.

My point is, while I agree defense is critical for post-season success, I wouldn't say our Pomeroy defensive number necessarily dooms our future.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

^^^^^^

I'm going to keep saying this until I am blue in the face. Defense is a team effort. It's not how well or poorly one player plays. It's how well or poorly all five guys on the floor at any given time play together. It's suggested above and in various other threads that we absolutely must have someone out there like Gbinije (who is totally unproven by the way) in order to stop penetration and play better overall defense. This notion completely overlooks the fact that good defense is a five-man effort.

Put a great defender on the ball to slow the one-on-one attack and the other team will simply move to a high screen or pick & roll offense. How many times have we watched this sort of thing happen to our team over the last several years. Many have bemoaned the team's inability to defend well against the high screen and pick & roll. And I will admit to being frustrated for several seasons as I have watched good teams pick us apart this way. But something good is happening with this team and it's exciting for me to watch...

I think there is general agreement that at the start of the season, despite a strong record, we were not playing good team defense. The statistics will tell that we are still not very efficient on defense. Yes, we still have trouble with with tall guards and 6-8 wing/small forward types. And I think our post defense still looks a little soft at times. But look at what's been happening out top lately - namely our defense against high screens and the pick & roll. I think Mason and Miles in particular (and to a somewhat lesser degree Ryan) are doing an outstanding job hedging against the screens. Great angles. Preventing opposing guards from splitting the defenders. Fewer fouls out top. Strong recovery back to their men if they are fading toward the paint. Big men down low rotating nicely to dissuade the inside pass from out top. Our guards fighting over the top of picks and choosing to go below the pick only when the opposing guard is far enough out not to be a shooting threat. THIS is team defense. THIS should be exciting for lots of us. It shows they are learning and maturing as a group. They are communicating better. They are sensing more accurately where they need to be and when.

I'm not saying we have become defensive super stars. We may not be the quickest team laterally, vertically, diagonally or whatever other direction some are wont to pick on. We are clearly not bringing it the way we need to 100% of the time. But what I am saying is that this team is improving in an obvious, though perhaps not statistically measurable, way. I'm certain none of this is has happened by chance. Great coaching surely is having the impact we would expect. The guys have probably working their butts off to get better at this. And I for one am excited to see the improvement. It's what is so great about watching an entire team develop over the course of a season.

I'm watching for the continued develop of this team's defensive smarts, intuition and communication. If they can continue to jell as a group on defense, we have even more to be excited about over the next 7 weeks!

[Indoor66]

The numbers wonks can't be wrong.

[Kedsy]

I'd like to point out that all of our losses have not been explicitly about our defense. All our losses also correspond to below-average efficiencies on offense (partly because winning means being more efficient on offense than defense).

- Ohio State was our worst game efficiency-wise, both on offense and defense. As we knew at the time, an outlier if there ever was.
- Miami was our fourth-worst offensive game, and our worst in terms of effective FG% (essentially converting FG% and 3PT% into one number)
- Florida State was our second-worst eFG% game.
- Temple, Florida State, and Ohio State were also the games in which we got the lowest Free Throw Rate. Which means the refs weren't our friends in the losses, either (although OSU is a highly rated FTR defensive team, which means they don't foul much; the others are decidedly average, which means it was either an outlier game or the refs were biased).

Well, I don't entirely know what you mean by "winning means being more efficient on offense than defense," but I think I disagree with that. Also, I believe you are oversimplifying when you discuss our offensive woes in our losses, because you are looking at raw numbers without regard to the defenses we were playing against.

The following is a table showing our 10 worst raw offensive efficiency numbers this season, also showing raw and adjusted defensive efficiencies for our opponents. Here, compared to our opponent's defensive acumen, you can see our offense against Ohio State and Florida State was actually very good. Against Miami and Temple, our offense was not as good, but still we performed better than their average opponent did (looking at it from both a raw and an adjusted perspective).



Team Duke Raw O Opp Raw D Opp Adj D Raw diff (+ is good)
----- ------------ ----------- ---------- --------
Ohio St 96.9 83.9 80.4 13.0
Mich St 98.7 87.9 83.9 10.8
Belmont 102.7 97.3 96.5 5.4
Miami 102.8 98.8 94.6 4.0
UVa 103.4 85.3 85.8 18.1
Clemson 105.8 94.6 95.0 11.2
Kansas 106.2 89.3 84.9 16.9
Temple 107.4 100.3 96.5 7.1
Tenn 108.5 99.3 93.2 9.2
Fla St 109.0 88.2 86.5 20.8





OK, on to defense...
- So far this year, Duke has been a mediocre defensive team, with middle-of-the pack stats for eFG% (slightly above average), TO% (below average), and Offensive Rebound percentage (below average; this is effectively our defensive rebounding).
- What's uncharacteristic of Duke? Most Duke teams struggle at the defensive boards, so this isn't a concern for our defensive system. Turnover percentage is a concern, as we aren't as active in the passing lanes as we could be. What is most uncharacteristic is actually our "above average" stat, eFG%. Duke usually is a national leader each year in eFG%. In general, we let the other team make shots.

I agree with your general analysis of our defense. Although saying our eFG% isn't good enough sort of begs the question of why? As you note, we're not bad at three-point D, so our eFG% problem obviously comes from two-point D, in today's game the largest component of which is layups/dunks, which are generally made at a higher percentage than other shots.

Why are we giving up so many layups and dunks? Hard to say for sure. It probably comes from not keeping opponent's perimeter players from getting into the lane and poor rotation once they do. Our average defensive rebounding probably has some say in the matter as well.

I put together the same table for our ten worst raw defensive efficiency numbers this season. Unlike our offense, where even our worst performance was better than our opponent's average foe, here our D was often much worse. Our number against Ohio State can farily be described as horrific, so considering our "adjusted" offense wasn't bad, this seems to suggest we can pin that loss almost entirely on defense. Same for our performance against Florida State. Miami and Temple weren't as bad, but we still performed worse defensively than their average opponent.



Team Duke Raw D Opp Raw O Opp Adj O Raw diff (+ is bad)
----- ------------ ----------- ---------- --------
Ohio St 130.8 112.2 114.2 18.6
UNC 118.3 112.7 114.6 5.6
Michigan 117.2 107.3 112.6 9.9
Temple 114.7 109.9 113.9 4.8
Ga Tech 113.8 95.7 98.1 18.1
Fla St 113.4 101.7 104.9 11.7
Miami 108.3 105.8 110.1 2.5
St. John's 105.6 98.5 100.8 7.1
Wake 104.3 97.6 98.1 6.7
Washington 102.6 105.0 105.5 -2.4


Bottom line, if you look at our four losses, Miami and Temple can be blamed on overall inefficiency, but defense more than offense. Ohio State and Florida State are almost completely on our poor defense.

[Saratoga2]

I believe the rotation has begun to settle in for this team

Starters:
1. Austin at combo guard with very solid defense of late and the attitude to be a go to scorer.
2, Seth has returned from a midseason swoon and has several games with good offense and determined defense.
3. Mason impresses me as having improved his game in all areas. He has difficulty against the more physical front courts with defense, but still our best
4. Ryan is my choice as starter due to hid ball security and offensive prowess, but it is a close call with Miles, who man finally be making a large step forward
5. Andre is my choice for 5th starter, but I recognize his tendency to disappear. I think if he had the confidence to put the ball on the floor, he would open up opportunities for his exceptional shooting ability. I also think his defense is inconsistent, but he has the size and mobility to do better.

Subs:
1 Tyler has played with toughness if not so smart at times, fouling too often. His offense is somewhat limited.
2. Rylan or Miles off the bench. It is a luxury to have three big men who can compete at this level.
3. Quinn obviously has the ball security and floor vision to provide a lift for the offense. Unfortunately, his defense was shown wanting, particularly against UNC, so he is coming off the bench.
4. Josh has not seen much PT of late mainly since his decision making has been lacking and the three big men ahead of him have been playing well

Looking at the team makeup, we are probably 3 best in the ACC in the front court and really only Austin can claim being a top player at his position in the ACC. With our strengths and weaknesses we have still come up with a record of 21/4 playing a very tough schedule and were only blown out once. That speaks to the excellent job of coaching that has been done and that the guys are unselfish and playing as a team. Get Andre to be consistent and Miles to play with the intensity he showed during the Maryland game and this team could be into the final 4.

[CoachJ10]

Like tonight vs. MD, 13pts and 22boards, just a very motivated performance. Same opponent that marked Z's eruption, hopefully a similar result follows.

Given how responsive MP1 was to my prior post, I will save my next prediction (Andre going for 35 pts) for a game when we need it!

[Bob Green]

...I will save my next prediction (Andre going for 35 pts) for a game when we need it!

Against Carolina on March 3rd will work for me!

[gumbomoop]

I really think you are making this problem to be way more insignificant than it is. Its not just that we are going to hit a team with a really good wing scorer. Duke is ranked currently 99th in the country in defense according to kenpom.

Maybe I'm the only one that believes this, but I think that the lack of a good wing defender is at least 50% of our defensive problems.

While possibly true that I think this issue less significant than do you, it's hardly accurate to say that I think it insignificant. In the post which you cited, I stated: "There's no good answer, so K simply has to manufacture a plausible-least-bad answer." The phrases "no good answer" and "least-bad answer" aren't usually associated with problems that are "insignificant."

Like you, I am disappointed that Gbinije has disappeared, for I am [unfortunately] on record in preseason threads praising Gbnije's promise on D. I had hoped he would earn gradually increasing PT, and am disappointed it hasn't happened.

I'm confident that virtually all posters agree - and more important, K has now publicly acknowledged - that the lack of a 6'5"- 6'7" wing defender is a noticeable problem. And while, IMO, Austin is our "best bet" in a "plausible-least-bad" approach, I'd guess he's no taller than 6'3", even if he's as much improved on D as I think.

It's a real problem. Really significant.

[Greg_Newton]

Why are we giving up so many layups and dunks? Hard to say for sure. It probably comes from not keeping opponent's perimeter players from getting into the lane and poor rotation once they do. Our average defensive rebounding probably has some say in the matter as well.

I've been thinking lately that it's largely a function of bad second rotations. Basically,

1. Opposing guard beats defender, get into the lane.
2. Big man rotates away from his man to cut off driver's path.
3. Weakside perimeter defender doesn't rotate down fast enough, so big man is forced to defend a 2-on-1 situation.
4. Driver either dishes for a layup, makes a close shot, or misses a close shot that is rebounded by the open, weak-side player.

The only reason I've really noticed it is because Rivers has been doing it so much better in the last couple games, resulting in deflections on passes, blocked/affected shots on the dish, even defensive rebounds in the paint because he's rotated down before the weak-side player has a chance to get prime rebounding position. It's made a huge difference.

(And as I've said, I don't think Kelly rotating off his man with his hands below his waist to flop helps this situation either, but that's not really a core issue...)

[Newton_14]

I've been thinking lately that it's largely a function of bad second rotations. Basically,

1. Opposing guard beats defender, get into the lane.
2. Big man rotates away from his man to cut off driver's path.
3. Weakside perimeter defender doesn't rotate down fast enough, so big man is forced to defend a 2-on-1 situation.
4. Driver either dishes for a layup, makes a close shot, or misses a close shot that is rebounded by the open, weak-side player.

The only reason I've really noticed it is because Rivers has been doing it so much better in the last couple games, resulting in deflections on passes, blocked/affected shots on the dish, even defensive rebounds in the paint because he's rotated down before the weak-side player has a chance to get prime rebounding position. It's made a huge difference.

(And as I've said, I don't think Kelly rotating off his man with his hands below his waist to flop helps this situation either, but that's not really a core issue...)

Agree with all of this. That 2nd rotation (or lack there of) has killed us all year. Rivers made a beautiful steal in the VaTech game as the 2nd line of rotation where Mason stepped up to cut off penetration, the Hokie guard dumped a bounce pass to Mason's man, and Austin stepped right in front out of nowhere. Awesome to watch. Since that game, Rivers has been mucho active on the defensive end.

[NSDukeFan]

I've been thinking lately that it's largely a function of bad second rotations. Basically,

1. Opposing guard beats defender, get into the lane.
2. Big man rotates away from his man to cut off driver's path.
3. Weakside perimeter defender doesn't rotate down fast enough, so big man is forced to defend a 2-on-1 situation.
4. Driver either dishes for a layup, makes a close shot, or misses a close shot that is rebounded by the open, weak-side player.

The only reason I've really noticed it is because Rivers has been doing it so much better in the last couple games, resulting in deflections on passes, blocked/affected shots on the dish, even defensive rebounds in the paint because he's rotated down before the weak-side player has a chance to get prime rebounding position. It's made a huge difference.

(And as I've said, I don't think Kelly rotating off his man with his hands below his waist to flop helps this situation either, but that's not really a core issue...)

I agree the second rotation has been the problem, but I thought it was much better in the first half against Maryland as well. I like Kelly rotating over for the charge, but agree that it would be nice if the 6'11 guy would get in position with his hands up, as even if he is bent in a defensive stance, his arms up might still influence some shots.

[Greg_Newton]

Also, Austin's 4 assists today put him at 3.1 APG in the 6 games since the FSU loss, which is considerably higher than his season average (remove his goose egg against Miami, and it goes up to 3.8). I think the eye test has backed this up, and that he's quietly growing into the lead distributor role on the team. Good stuff.

Austin's 4 dimes (with only two TOs) last night brought him back up to 3 APG in the 9 games since FSU (3.37 if you remove Miami). Not eye-popping, but it's nice to see the trend continuing; even with those 9 games, he's still only at 2.2 APG for the year.

I think we're also seeing K hand the reigns off to Austin as the "lead guard" somewhat, which I think is great. As the front page article says, he's been great about picking his spots to drive and kicking the ball to open shooters when it's there (he had huge drive and kicks to Dre and Kelly yesterday). I think these two plays (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dz_WLKilZQA&t=0m45s) illustrate pretty much exactly what we'd like our lead guard to do. Really helps us avoid being a one-dimensional team that has trouble breaking down the defense when Mason isn't on.

We even saw the "Rivers set" a few times, where Austin brought the ball up the left side of the court and we spread the floor and let him come off of a high ball screen, then had the roller screen for Dre to pop up to the top of the key, forcing the defense to either leave Dre open or clear out the lane somewhat for Rivers to barrel through. The set seemed to work really well, and is a pretty brilliant scheme by K, considering our personnel.

The evolution of Mr. Rivers continues..

[superdave]

Austin's 4 dimes (with only two TOs) last night brought him back up to 3 APG in the 9 games since FSU (3.37 if you remove Miami). Not eye-popping, but it's nice to see the trend continuing; even with those 9 games, he's still only at 2.2 APG for the year.

I think we're also seeing K hand the reigns off to Austin as the "lead guard" somewhat, which I think is great. As the front page article says, he's been great about picking his spots to drive and kicking the ball to open shooters when it's there (he had huge drive and kicks to Dre and Kelly yesterday). I think these two plays (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dz_WLKilZQA&t=0m45s) illustrate pretty much exactly what we'd like our lead guard to do. Really helps us avoid being a one-dimensional team that has trouble breaking down the defense when Mason isn't on.

We even saw the "Rivers set" a few times, where Austin brought the ball up the left side of the court and we spread the floor and let him come off of a high ball screen, then had the roller screen for Dre to pop up to the top of the key, forcing the defense to either leave Dre open or clear out the lane somewhat for Rivers to barrel through. The set seemed to work really well, and is a pretty brilliant scheme by K, considering our personnel.

The evolution of Mr. Rivers continues..

I think you are right. Austin is showing how comfortable he is initiating the offense and that's good. That "Austin set" is similar to the Nolan-initiated offense from last year. Pick and roll.

Quinn has played just 42 minutes (8 per game) since the Miami loss while Tyler has played 108 minutes (over 21 per game). This means Seth and Austin are the 1-2 for 12 minutes per game. This is very similar to the distribution of minutes we saw at the beginning of the season. It seems like the Quinn experiment will wait until next season.

[Kedsy]

Quinn has played just 42 minutes (8 per game) since the Miami loss while Tyler has played 108 minutes (over 21 per game). This means Seth and Austin are the 1-2 for 12 minutes per game. This is very similar to the distribution of minutes we saw at the beginning of the season. It seems like the Quinn experiment will wait until next season.

Alas, as Quinn's and Josh's minutes decline, we are heading back toward Coach K's historically preferred 7-man rotation.

[superdave]

Alas, as Quinn's and Josh's minutes decline, we are heading back toward Coach K's historically preferred 7-man rotation.

I wonder if Tyler and Quinn's minutes would be flipped if not for Quinn tweaking his knee and getting sick. It's probably more of a defensive thing, in actuality.

[roywhite]

Austin's 4 dimes (with only two TOs) last night brought him back up to 3 APG in the 9 games since FSU (3.37 if you remove Miami). Not eye-popping, but it's nice to see the trend continuing; even with those 9 games, he's still only at 2.2 APG for the year.

I think we're also seeing K hand the reigns off to Austin as the "lead guard" somewhat, which I think is great. As the front page article says, he's been great about picking his spots to drive and kicking the ball to open shooters when it's there (he had huge drive and kicks to Dre and Kelly yesterday). I think these two plays (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dz_WLKilZQA&t=0m45s) illustrate pretty much exactly what we'd like our lead guard to do. Really helps us avoid being a one-dimensional team that has trouble breaking down the defense when Mason isn't on.

We even saw the "Rivers set" a few times, where Austin brought the ball up the left side of the court and we spread the floor and let him come off of a high ball screen, then had the roller screen for Dre to pop up to the top of the key, forcing the defense to either leave Dre open or clear out the lane somewhat for Rivers to barrel through. The set seemed to work really well, and is a pretty brilliant scheme by K, considering our personnel.

The evolution of Mr. Rivers continues..

Duke reigns when Austin has the reins?

Rivers runs through our title hopes?

Very pleased with the way the team has been playing recently; a good February in 2010 did lead to good things in March and April.

[Kedsy]

It's probably more of a defensive thing, in actuality.

Yeah, I think it's completely a defensive thing.