ACC's final 3 weeks

[gumbomoop]

Seems appropriate to have a thread on how the ACC is shaking out, as we're nearing its final 3 weeks; and there's an obvious top half and obvious bottom half.

First, here's a bit of news: P.J. Hairston to miss Sat v UVa.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/7562625/north-carolina-tar-heels-pj-hairston-miss-virginia-cavaliers-game

To take the longer view, here's a look at the ACC hopefuls. One caveat, to me as much as to you: in what follows, I sometimes refer to "should win." I understand that this is no guarantee, and FSU @ BC proved that, even more than Duke @ UNC. I'm confident K is preparing for the Terps, not reading EK. Still, one cannot predict standings, and argue about said predictions, if one reduces all games to "anybody can beat anybody." What follows is mostly serious.

Duke - 5 "should wins" [SW, hereafter]: Md, NCSt [borderline SW?], @ BC, VT, @ Wake. 2 toss-ups: @ FSU, UNC. Our team would have to play with uncharacteristically consistent excellence to get to 14-2. So, we'll be thrilled with 13-3, losing only to, what the hell, Wake. [I'm not actually predicting this loss, but if I had a magic wand and could choose 6 wins and 1 loss, I choose to lose @ Wake.]

UNC - 3 SWs: home v UVa, Clemson, & Md. But then 3 borderline toss-ups: @ to Miami, NCSt, and UVa. Plus definite toss-up in CIS. Give 'em 13-3, losing in the 3d overtime on 3/3, by a 3-bomb. Duke nabs ACCT 1-seed.......

FSU - I count a mere 2 SWs: home games w/ VT and Clemson. Leaving 5 toss-ups: Duke, 2 games with Miami, and @ NCSt and @ UVa. 12-4, maybe?

UVa - Tough schedule. Two with UNC, and I don't believe the Cavs will win either of those. They have no, zero, games remaining with BC, GaT, or Wake. I count but 2 SWs: Md and @ Clemson. That leaves 3 toss-ups: @ Md, @ VT, home v FSU. 10-6.

Miami - I give them 3 SWs: home v Wake and BC, @ Md. Probably 4 toss-ups, though they have a quick turnaround with an early aft game tomorrow at FSU. Larranaga says Reggie doesn't recover quickly after a game, so I think FSU wins tomorrow. The other 3 toss-ups are home with FSU and UNC, and @ NCSt. 10-6.

NCSt - Maybe, maybe 2 SWs: @ Clemson, @ VT. Then 4 toss-ups, at best: @ Duke, and home games w/ UNC, FSU, Miami. 10-6.

One of the top 6 probably winds up 9-7.

[roywhite]

Maybe I'm getting soft, but I think all 6 of the ACC teams you mentioned should make the NCAA Tournament, especially if they play somewhere near "as expected" the rest of the way.

You've handicapped the race well, and the final 3 furlongs should be exciting.

[uh_no]

Maybe I'm getting soft, but I think all 6 of the ACC teams you mentioned should make the NCAA Tournament, especially if they play somewhere near "as expected" the rest of the way.

You've handicapped the race well, and the final 3 furlongs should be exciting.

well, joey brackets has miami and NCST in the last four in and first four out, so i think its hardly a given that either will make or miss the tournament.

[Olympic Fan]

Your projections are logical and all that, but what we've seen so far has not been all that logical.

Florida State to lose at Boston College?

Georgia Tech to hammer NC State in Raleigh? Virginia Tech to beat Virginia in Charlottesville?

Duke to lose one possession games at home to Miami and FSU, then to rally from 10 down with less than 2:30 left to beat UNC?

It's easy to look at the standings and project what SHOULD happen. But that's not the same as predicting what will happen.

As a Duke guy, I'd love a 6-1 regular season finish!

[Bob Green]

Three big games today to start off the drive to see which four of the six teams can earn the ACCT 1st round bye.

After completely dropping the ball by losing at Boston College, Florida State faces the surging Miami Hurricanes. Vegas likes Florida State by 7 points (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/florida-state). Miami is riding a five game winning streak with three of the five wins being on the road. My money (figuratively speaking) is on the 'Canes.

North Carolina is a 10.5 points favorite (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/north-carolina) at home over Virginia. Will Carolina rebound from their Wednesday night collapse or will their season spiral out of control? The Tar Heels short bench will be shorter as P.J. Hairston will not play today due to a sore left foot. The Cavaliers are capable of winning this game, but I expect the Tar Heels to prevail at home.

In the Duke, Maryland game I am going to predict...wait for it...a Duke victory. :) So, my picks are Miami, Carolina and Duke. There is a fourth game, Clemson @ Wake Forest but who cares?

[DUKIE V(A)]

Huge day in the ACC today...

It would take three road upsets (MD over Duke, UVA over Carolina, and The Canes over FSU), but if that happened there would be a six-way tie for first in the ACC at 7-3.

If Duke, Carolina, and FSU were to win to go to 8-2, State would be a game back at 7-3 with UVA and Miami two games out at 6-4.

I would love to see a five way tie for second (at 7-3) with our Devils sitting atop at 8-2.:)

[Bob Green]

Roy Williams is rocking his inner Norm Sloan wearing an ugly plaid sports coat. Carolina has a 35-32 lead. Florida State is up on Miami 28-26 with 1 second left in the 1st half.

[gumbomoop]

UVa lost this (Tues 2/14) eve at Clemson. Injuries pile up; Joe Harris's bad hand made him a non-factor. For several reasons, I'm hoping he can contribute more, and soon. I'd like to see UVa make the NCAAT, and to do that they need to win at home v. either FSU or UNC, highly to be desired in its own right. Better chance to do that if they can get on an uptick by winning at home this Sat v. Md. Go Hoos. Mike Scott for ACC POY. Tony Bennett rocks. Etc.

[devildeac]

Go 'Canes!

(and I am NOT talking 'bout my local NHL team ;>)) )

[gumbomoop]

Go 'Canes!

I saw a good amount of the second half of the recent Miami-FSU game, and what I saw seemed to confirm Larranaga's comment that Reggie doesn't recover quickly after a game. The Canes had one of those quick turnarounds, having played the late game last Thurs eve, then had to travel to FSU for early game Sat aft. In the second half, Bernard James took over, and Reggie just wore out. Glad he should be rested for the Heels tonight.

I don't remember much about the first Canes-Heels game in CH, except it seemed over in the first half. Box score says Dexter played well, so Heels might miss him if Malcolm Grant gets hot. Reggie and Kadji have to stay out of foul trouble, and DeQuan Jones has to get some rebounds when he subs in for either Johnson or Kadji. I assume Durand Scott will want to play Barnes rigorously and vigorously. Canes have to hit their 3s, and they shoot lots of them, maybe second most in ACC, behind Duke. Shane Larkin is playing well, and the Canes have good wing size off the bench to shoot 3s. Might be a really exciting game.

[devildeac]

I saw a good amount of the second half of the recent Miami-FSU game, and what I saw seemed to confirm Larranaga's comment that Reggie doesn't recover quickly after a game. The Canes had one of those quick turnarounds, having played the late game last Thurs eve, then had to travel to FSU for early game Sat aft. In the second half, Bernard James took over, and Reggie just wore out. Glad he should be rested for the Heels tonight.

I don't remember much about the first Canes-Heels game in CH, except it seemed over in the first half. Box score says Dexter played well, so Heels might miss him if Malcolm Grant gets hot. Reggie and Kadji have to stay out of foul trouble, and DeQuan Jones has to get some rebounds when he subs in for either Johnson or Kadji. I assume Durand Scott will want to play Barnes rigorously and vigorously. Canes have to hit their 3s, and they shoot lots of them, maybe second most in ACC, behind Duke. Shane Larkin is playing well, and the Canes have good wing size off the bench to shoot 3s. Might be a really exciting game.

Plus, I caught a few minutes of Lunardi on the phone on espn yesterday and he thinks Miami is one of the "first four out" so I hope the 'Canes realize tonight is one of their "play-in" games and they'd better bring a high quality effort, even better than the show they put on at CIS a couple weeks ago. I'm just waiting to see if Kadji and Johnson both pick up a couple quick fouls in the lay-up lines pre-game so Zeller and Henson can go wild from the opening tip. (just kidding. sort of. grr...)

[ChillinDuke]

Your projections are logical and all that, but what we've seen so far has not been all that logical.

Florida State to lose at Boston College?

Georgia Tech to hammer NC State in Raleigh? Virginia Tech to beat Virginia in Charlottesville?

Duke to lose one possession games at home to Miami and FSU, then to rally from 10 down with less than 2:30 left to beat UNC?

It's easy to look at the standings and project what SHOULD happen. But that's not the same as predicting what will happen.

As a Duke guy, I'd love a 6-1 regular season finish!

True. But often, the sum of all illogicals equals logical. (Or something like that...)

My point being, here we are with less than three weeks left in the ACC season and Duke, UNC, and Florida St are battling atop the ACC standings. Wake Forest, BC, and Ga Tech are flat-lining at the bottom of the ACC. The rest are somewhere in between. This was very much logical and expected before the season ever started.

Now obviously you can argue FL St's loss to BC was surprising. Or Duke losing to Miami at home. Or that NC St is exceeding expectations while Va Tech is falling short of expectations thus far. But by and large, this year has been quite logical, at least in my view. A few surprises make it all the more logical to me. Basically, I'm just agreeing with Gumbomoop's analysis and also with you that a 6-1 end to our season would be very nice.

I think we control our own destiny here which is always a nice situation. Just gotta deliver now.

Back to the recent topic at hand, Miami needs to show some muscle tonight. I don't know that they absolutely need a win here, but they gotta play Carolina tight to keep them in the tourney picture. I think the ACC is looking at 5 teams this year, with Miami pulling the ol' Seth Greenberg routine on fateful Sunday.

- Chillin

[UrinalCake]

Based on gumbo's analysis it looks like Duke has the easiest remaining schedule, at least in terms of "should-win" games versus "toss-up" games. But if you look at just the top three teams, Duke still has to play each of the other two, while UNC and FSU each only have a single game against us. It seems reasonable that we would lose one of those two. I guess you can say we are the most in control of our destiny, because if we win both then we're in pretty good shape for the league title.

Would love to see Miami knock off UNC tonight.

[Bob Green]

Florida State improves to 10-2 with their 76-62 win over N.C. State and takes a half game lead over Carolina and Duke atop the ACC Standings. Virginia, N.C. State and Miami are tied for 4th Place with 7-5 records. Carolina tips-off against Clemson in 15 minutes. Go Tigers!!!

[theAlaskanBear]

Florida State improves to 10-2 with their 76-62 win over N.C. State and takes a half game lead over Carolina and Duke atop the ACC Standings. Virginia, N.C. State and Miami are tied for 4th Place with 7-5 records. Carolina tips-off against Clemson in 15 minutes. Go Tigers!!!

I was pulling for NC State, but it was obvious they were going to lose. They looked flat after a quick turnaround from the Duke game. What I noticed the most from watching was CJ Leslie being completely lost on D. I mean like in the wilderness with no compass or map lost. He was just standing still watching the ball and FSU shredded State with cuts and screens. I thought for sure he would be benched by Gottfried. K would have had his butt sitting down for most of the 2nd half.

[sagegrouse]

I was pulling for NC State, but it was obvious they were going to lose. They looked flat after a quick turnaround from the Duke game. What I noticed the most from watching was CJ Leslie being completely lost on D. I mean like in the wilderness with no compass or map lost. He was just standing still watching the ball and FSU shredded State with cuts and screens. I thought for sure he would be benched by Gottfried. K would have had his butt sitting down for most of the 2nd half.

Leslie was on the court for a reason. At one point the shooting for players not named CJ Leslie was 1 for 21, while Leslie had made five of nine.

sage

[Olympic Fan]

Virginia stopped the bleeding with great second half against Maryland. Tied at the half, the Cavs dominated the second 20 minutes and coasted to their 20th win. Virginia Tech puled out another buzzer-beater, getting a 3 at the buzzer to beat GeorgiaTech in OT. Miami also pulled away in the second half to beat Wake.

Okay, assuming UNC beats Clemson (surprisingly close game, but you know the Heels win, we have two very tight groups at the top of the standings.

UNC 10-2 23-4
FSU 10-2 19-7
Duke 9-2 22-4 (need to win Sunday at BC to keep pace)

Virginia 7-5 20-6
NC State 7-5 18-9
Miami 7-5 16-9

Pretty good race for the regular season title and pretty good race for the fourh ACC Tournament bye. Those are the six teams vying for the NCAA Tournament too ... Virginia really helped itelf today -- they're pretty close to a lock. Miami and N.C. State have a lot of work to do.
Miami 7-7

[theAlaskanBear]

Leslie was on the court for a reason. At one point the shooting for players not named CJ Leslie was 1 for 21, while Leslie had made five of nine.

sage

I heard that too, but it was the second half where I saw all the defensive lapses. I'm usually never one to question a players effort, but he was literally just standing still, and he never tried to recover or collapse to the basket, he just watched them score. I don't know. Maybe he was afraid of foul trouble. :rolleyes:

Now the whole NC State team was pretty flat, so I can understand the "best player on the court"...but there is no way to beat FSU when you are letting there bigmen uncontested shots.

[Bob Green]

Virginia traveled to Blacksburg and beat Virginia Tech 61-59, while NC State and Miami both lost so the Cavaliers are now in sole possession of 4th Place in the conference at 8-5. Virginia is in solid shape and should be closing in on locking up a NCAAT bid. They could really help their own cause with a victory over either North Carolina on Saturday or Florida State next week. Both games are in Charlottesville.

[Olympic Fan]

Virginia traveled to Blacksburg and beat Virginia Tech 61-59, while NC State and Miami both lost so the Cavaliers are now in sole possession of 4th Place in the conference at 8-5. Virginia is in solid shape and should be closing in on locking up a NCAAT bid. They could really help their own cause with a victory over either North Carolina on Saturday or Florida State next week. Both games are in Charlottesville.

Agree that Virginia in in good shape for the NCAA bid now. But it's not a lock and their bid to finish fourth (and get a bye in the ACC Tournament) is far from secure. They have by far the toughest ACC schedule of the three-fourth-place contenders left -- UNC and FSU at home, then at Maryland. They could easily lose all three. Would they be a lock then?

NC Satte, which just went 0-3 against the Big Three, has an easier path -- at Clemson (which is playing better), Miami at home (State has already won at Miami) and at Virginia Tech (which, like Clemson, is also playing better). They almost have to sweep that trio to bolster their NCAA credentials.

Miami is in similar shape to NC State. A game behind Virginia and probably on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble. They have a slightly worse record than the Pack, but they do have one thing NC State doesn't have -- a quality win at Duke. They get a big chance to add another quality win when FSU visits Miami Sunday. Then they take on NC State in Raleigh (not quite an elimination game, but close to it). They finish with what should be a sure win at home against a fading BC.

The race for fourth place is almost as exciting as the three-way race for first ... plus it has the added excitement of the fact that all three contenders are fighting to secure their NCAA bids. I think Virginia is in good shape, but not a lock ... NC State and Miami still have work to do.

[gumbomoop]

Agree that Virginia in in good shape for the NCAA bid now. But it's not a lock and their bid to finish fourth (and get a bye in the ACC Tournament) is far from secure. They have by far the toughest ACC schedule of the three-fourth-place contenders left.

The race for fourth place is almost as exciting as the three-way race for first ... plus it has the added excitement of the fact that all three contenders are fighting to secure their NCAA bids. I think Virginia is in good shape, but not a lock ... NC State and Miami still have work to do.

Quite possibly a 3-way tie for 4th at 9-7. As you say, Cavs have tough end-season, made tougher by the injuries to Harris and especially Sene, who may not return at all. One advantage for the Cavs: in case of 3-way tie at 9-7, they have tiebreaker with both Miami and NCSt, having defeated each by one point.

[davekay1971]

Heeeeee-yooooooooj games tomorrow for NC State and Virginia.

NC State desperately needs to get back to winning basketball after flunking their 3 game are-you-one-of-the-big-boys? test. That was a tough gauntlet for State, and going 1-2 would have put them on the inside of the bubble. Now they are on the outside and need to win their last 3 (all winnable) to have any shot at an at large bid. Go into the ACC Tourney 10-6 and they can hope that one or two wins might get them an at large bid. Go into the ACC Tournament 9-7, they almost certainly don't get an at-large bid, and it would be automatic-bid-or-NIT time for them again. State has been pretty good all season (with the notable exception of the Ga Tech home loss) of winning the games they should win. Well, they've now got 3 games they should win, and need to win.

UVa doesn't absolutely need to beat the Tarheels, but a win probably makes them an absolute lock for the NCAAT. Obviously, I'll be cheering on the Wahoos for my own selfish reasons.

[Bob Green]

We've reached the penultimate weekend of the regular season and it is shaping up to be an exciting one. Three teams remain in the chase for the regular season crown, and #1 seed in the ACC Tournament.

Duke vs Virginia Tech
North Carolina @ Virginia
Florida State @ Miami

On paper, Duke has the easiest task this weekend due to playing a lower tier team at home, while Carolina and Florida State are on the road against teams still in the hunt for 4th place and a 1st round bye. It is vital for Duke to come out focused and take care of business against Virginia Tech at home. A slip up would negate the big win in Tallahassee. While Carolina and Florida State should win, I expect both games to be hard fought affairs and if Virginia could knock off Carolina it would give Duke a leg up toward securing the ACCT #1 seed. Carolina is a four point favorite. Miami is reeling having lost three of their last four games so FSU will be facing a team who desperately needs a win to salvage their chances to earn a NCAAT bid.

Virginia, N.C. State and Miami all need to help themselves and win in order to secure the last bye for the ACCT. Two of the three teams are matched up against top tier teams, while N.C. State travels to Clemson. Vegas likes the Tigers and has them as a four point favorite over the Wolfpack. If N.C. State loses, their resume for a NCAAT bid takes a huge hit. As davekay1971 states above, the Wolfpack need to win out.

It is time to kick back and enjoy a great weekend of competitive ACC basketball.

[diveonthefloor]

Anybody in DBR land watching UVA lead UNC at half? Love Bennett, what a coach!

[Wander]

Anybody in DBR land watching UVA lead UNC at half? Love Bennett, what a coach!

If UNC loses this game, does Duke get the #1 seed in the ACCT, assuming we beat Wake?

Also, NC State giving up their 20 point lead at Cameron was the unofficial end to their season.

[chaosmage]

If UNC loses this game, does Duke get the #1 seed in the ACCT, assuming we beat Wake?

Also, NC State giving up their 20 point lead at Cameron was the unofficial end to their season.

Way I see it, in the following scenario we get the 1st seed in tournament.

UNC loses today or their next game.
We defeat Wake
We defeat UNC Saturday.

If we lose to UNC Saturday, we still get #1 depending on if FSU gets 3rd. If they do, then we SHOULD get the #1 seed in the ACCT because of we split with them and FSU, whereas they have 0-1 record versus FSU.

Of course, easy way is to win both games. Problem solved.

And I agree re: NCSU. They officially punched a ticket (maybe) to the NIT today.

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

Anybody in DBR land watching UVA lead UNC at half? Love Bennett, what a coach!

Oh yeah. UVA is playing great, but the zebras latest whistle on Scott has kind of taken the air out of the building. They need someone to hit a shot and soon.

[gumbomoop]

If UNC loses this game, does Duke get the #1 seed in the ACCT, assuming we beat Wake?

Yes. Duke has the tiebreakers, in case both Duke and UNC end up 13-3. Probably FSU or maybe UVa will finish 3d. Duke is 1-1 v FSU, and 1-0 v UVa. UNC is 0-1 v FSU, and would be 1-1 v UVa. I think it's impossible for Miami to finish 3d, so it's irrelevant that Duke is 0-1 v Canes, whereas UNC is 2-0.

All that said, I don't expect UVa to beat UNC, esp given that last foul called against Scott [4th] in a colossal blown call, in which Henson wins an Oscar. UVa is playing inspired, but Sene's injury is a killer for a game against UNC.

Later edit: Actually it is remotely possible that Miami, FSU, and UVa could all end up 10-6. Remotely. Highly unlikely. Just out of curiosity, I'll try to figure out which of those teams would get 3d on tiebreakers among those 3.

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

UVa is playing inspired, but Sene's injury is a killer for a game against UNC.

So true. 6'6 Joe Harris, who is listed as a guard, is guarding Henson. This one does look like it is going down to the wire though.

Lets go Hoos!

[Wander]

All that said, I don't expect UVa to beat UNC, esp given that last foul called against Scott [4th] in a colossal blown call, in which Henson wins an Oscar. UVa is playing inspired, but Sene's injury is a killer for a game against UNC.

Blessing in disguise? Scott playing like crap. I call BS on him being an ACC player of the year contender. Blah.

[devildeac]

So true. 6'6 Joe Harris, who is listed as a guard, is guarding Henson. This one does look like it is going down to the wire though.

Lets go Hoos!

unc has managed to accumulate a total of 4 fouls in 19:57 of the 2nd half of this game. Amazing.

#5 now with 1.3 seconds left.

[loran16]

UVA went 0-11 on their last 11 3s. Oh and UNC managed to con the officials into calling an early 4th foul on the best ACC player Mike Scott and got away with an finger to a UVA player's eye.

They live a charmed life. Second road game (also Miami) where momentum was changed by rotten officiating.

[Wander]

unc has managed to accumulate a total of 4 fouls in 19:57 of the 2nd half of this game. Amazing.

#5 now with 1.3 seconds left.

And that fourth one actually came just a few seconds before the fifth one.

Guess we gotta beat these clowns ourselves!

[Bob Green]

Blessing in disguise? Scott playing like crap. I call BS on him being an ACC player of the year contender. Blah.

Mike Scott would still get my vote (if I had one). It's not about one game, but rather about his entire body of work. If Mike Scott isn't the ACC POY, who is?

[devildeac]

UVA went 0-11 on their last 11 3s. Oh and UNC managed to con the officials into calling an early 4th foul on the best ACC player Mike Scott and got away with an finger to a UVA player's eye.

They live a charmed life. Second road game (also Miami) where momentum was changed by rotten officiating.


And that fourth one actually came just a few seconds before the fifth one.

Guess we gotta beat these clowns ourselves!

Just remember though: Duke gets all the calls:rolleyes:.

Final tally: unc with 23 FT and UVa with 6.

[ChrisP]

Disclaimer - I didn't watch one second of this game but...even so...how did UNC get called for only 11 total fouls and UVA only went to the line 6 times today - AT HOME??? Duke only got called for 13 today vs. VT so I guess that's not a whole lot more than 11, but still...it seems a bit fishy to say the least.

[Bob Green]

...how did UNC get called for only 11 total fouls and UVA only went to the line 6 times today - AT HOME???

Easy answer - ACC Refs! It has been that way for all 52 years of my existence.

[Wander]

Mike Scott would still get my vote (if I had one). It's not about one game, but rather about his entire body of work. If Mike Scott isn't the ACC POY, who is?

Probably Zeller but I'm not sure. He's really become a lot tougher and plays with a ton of effort, in addition to being a fantastic scorer. I'm sort of amazed that he's turned himself into a projected lottery pick.

But you're right, I probably overreacted.

[duke09hms]

Probably Zeller but I'm not sure. He's really become a lot tougher and plays with a ton of effort, in addition to being a fantastic scorer. I'm sort of amazed that he's turned himself into a projected lottery pick.

But you're right, I probably overreacted.

Yeah that's because he's a senior, and Henson, supposedly a lottery pick as a freshman, is still in school as a junior. Guess UNC can't develop NBA talent.

[Bob Green]

Probably Zeller but I'm not sure. He's really become a lot tougher and plays with a ton of effort, in addition to being a fantastic scorer. I'm sort of amazed that he's turned himself into a projected lottery pick.

But you're right, I probably overreacted.

Zeller would be my second choice. He is clearly Carolina's MVP.

[gumbomoop]

I think UVa, with the injuries to Sene and Harris, just doesn't have the weapons to beat us. They can make the game ugly, and if Evans is getting in the lane or Zeglinski gets hot they can be a threat. But I'm more concerned about FSU's depth and defense than UVa.

I can certainly see cases made for State and Miami. I think UVa's threat is less than the other two. And I think we should beat any of the four. But I'd much rather face one of those middle three than FSU. And that's not even considering that we could face a #5 seed who has played two games the previous two days (very relevant for State and UVa who lack depth and Miami who could have a worn-out Reggie Johnson).

Agree with you re facing a #5 seed, and perhaps before you replied to my post, I had added an edit to that effect.

I'll probably come pretty close to agreeing with you - even if I'll continue to hedge on "much rather" - [I]if FSU wins @ UVa this eve. No news re Sene returning, so UVa definitely short-handed. Even so, they looked better than FSU last weekend, giving Heels a strong challenge, while FSU seemed almost lethargic v. Reggie-suspended Miami. Maybe just another example of "Duke gets everyone's best shot". Miami didn't get FSU's best shot, for sure.

I'm perhaps overrating UVa, as I've been impressed with their remarkable consistency in a season marked by major transfer and injury disruptions. I thought Sene's injury would doom them, and it may still do just that. In fact, if they lose this eve, they could end up 8-8, and either 6 or 7 in ACC.

[gumbomoop]

After Thurs eve games, we now know where 2 teams will finish in ACC race: FSU certain to finish #3, and Md. certain to finish #8.

Likely to be a tie for #4 and #6, between teams and possibilities too numerous to mention. Miami now a solid bet to get to 9-7 and at least a tie for #4, as they finish up at home with BC. Blow that, and their bubble bursts. But even if they get to 9-7, they lose ACCT-seed-tiebreaker to both NCSt and UVa, should either win on road on Sunday. Result of NCSt's visit to VaT Sun eve, last game of season, will determine seeds 4-7, I think. [Check me on this, somebody.]

In Sene's absence, UVa has had trouble. Check out their rebounds tonight v. FSU.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320610258

You don't think the ACC could get only 3 in NCAAT?

[Olympic Fan]

After Thurs eve games, we now know where 2 teams will finish in ACC race: FSU certain to finish #3, and Md. certain to finish #8.

Likely to be a tie for #4 and #6, between teams and possibilities too numerous to mention. Miami now a solid bet to get to 9-7 and at least a tie for #4, as they finish up at home with BC. Blow that, and their bubble bursts. But even if they get to 9-7, they lose ACCT-seed-tiebreaker to both NCSt and UVa, should either win on road on Sunday. Result of NCSt's visit to VaT Sun eve, last game of season, will determine seeds 4-7, I think. [Check me on this, somebody.]

In Sene's absence, UVa has had trouble. Check out their rebounds tonight v. FSU.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320610258

You don't think the ACC could get only 3 in NCAAT?

I posted in another thread that we could still end up with a four-way tie for fourth. We have four teams at 8-7 at the moment and since none of them play each other this weekend, we could end up with any possible combination of 9-7 and 8-8 teams between Virginia, Miami, N.C. State and Clemson.

Almost too many tiebreakers to figure. If it ends in a four-way tie, then Virginia gets No. 4 (3-1 against the other three -- State and Clemson 2-2 -- and Miami 1-3). I think that means that Miami gets the No. 7 seed. Clemson wins the tiebreaker with State (because of a head-to-head win). So Clemson is No. 5 and NC State No. 6.

However, I've read and re-read the ACC tiebeaker rules and it might work ths way -- Virginia gets the No. 4 seed, then the other three teams go back into a three-way tie and if that happens, the NC State gets No. 5 (2-1 against Miami and Clemson), Clemson gets No. 6 (1-1 vs. State and Miami) and Miami still gets No. 7 (1-2 vs. the other two). But I think the first reading is right.

Even so, Miami culd get the No. 4 seed if the 'Canes win this weekend and the other three all lose. Like I said, almost any combination of 4-thoug-7 is possible. I think Miami has the easiest finl game -- home to Boston College. Virginia has a tough one at Maryland. NC State has a tough one at Virginia Tech. And Clemson has a REAL tough one on at FSU.

I think the potential lineup does point to the advantages the No. 1 seed will have this year. Not only will the semifinal be tough at No. 2 against Florida State (probably) instead of Virginia/State/Miami or Clemson, but the No. 2 seed will have a much tougher quarterfinal game -- the one seed will get the winner of Maryland vs. one of the bottom four teams (Va Tech is the best of the bunch ... but they only get No. 9 if they beat State). The No. 2 seed will get somebody like Miami or NC State.

Amazing mess at the bottom of the standings. If Georgia Tech can beat Wake in Atlanta Saturday, then we could very well end up with a four-way tie at 4-12. It's too late for me to try and sort that one out, but just a quick glance would seem to suggest that Wake Forest would win a four-way tiebreaker.

[gumbomoop]

I posted in another thread that we could still end up with a four-way tie for fourth.

Almost any combination of 4-throug-7 is possible. I think Miami has the easiest final game -- home to Boston College. Virginia has a tough one at Maryland. NC State has a tough one at Virginia Tech. And Clemson has a REAL tough one on at FSU.

I think the potential lineup does point to the advantages the No. 1 seed will have this year. Not only will the semifinal be tough at No. 2 against Florida State (probably) instead of Virginia/State/Miami or Clemson, but the No. 2 seed will have a much tougher quarterfinal game -- the one seed will get the winner of Maryland vs. one of the bottom four teams (Va Tech is the best of the bunch ... but they only get No. 9 if they beat State). The No. 2 seed will get somebody like Miami or NC State.

Agree with all this. The reason I referred in my post to likely ties for 4 and 6 - rather than 4-way-tie for 4th - is that, like you, I think it likely that Miami wins and Clemson loses; and then, what the heck, I'll just guess one of NCSt and UVa wins, and the other loses. Anyhow, I would be surprised if there's not at least a tie for 4th, probably 2- or 3-way tie.

Maybe every year whichever turns out to be the final ACC game determines a couple of seeds, but this year that Sun eve NCSt @ VaT game would seem to affect many seeds.

I had a minor debate with CDu over on the UNC pregame thread re how big an advantage it would be to finish #1. You and CDu have convinced me that - beyond the signal disadvantage of losing to UNC, and to hell with everything else - this year the 2-seed has a tougher road to ACCT final than 1-seed. A quarterfinal against, especially, a team that finished, say, 9-7 and then won its opening round game - making them 10-7 in ACC - would be a match with a team that would believe it could still make the NCAAT by beating Duke. Such a team, in reality, would probably have to get to the final, but Duke would be in the way.

[Jderf]

I had a minor debate with CDu over on the UNC pregame thread re how big an advantage it would be to finish #1. You and CDu have convinced me that - beyond the signal disadvantage of losing to UNC, and to hell with everything else - this year the 2-seed has a tougher road to ACCT final than 1-seed. A quarterfinal against, especially, a team that finished, say, 9-7 and then won its opening round game - making them 10-7 in ACC - would be a match with a team that would believe it could still make the NCAAT by beating Duke. Such a team, in reality, would probably have to get to the final, but Duke would be in the way.

I'm coming over to this side of the debate myself. There are just going to be so many dangerous teams, all still fighting deseprately for a glimmer of an NCAA berth, that no matter who the #2 seed faces in the quarterfinals, it's going to be an outright claw-and-tooth battle. I'd feel much, much more comfortable with that #1 seed.

[UrinalCake]

I had a minor debate with CDu over on the UNC pregame thread re how big an advantage it would be to finish #1. You and CDu have convinced me that - beyond the signal disadvantage of losing to UNC, and to hell with everything else - this year the 2-seed has a tougher road to ACCT final than 1-seed. A quarterfinal against, especially, a team that finished, say, 9-7 and then won its opening round game - making them 10-7 in ACC - would be a match with a team that would believe it could still make the NCAAT by beating Duke. Such a team, in reality, would probably have to get to the final, but Duke would be in the way.

If we do end up losing on saturday, I will take solace in hoping things turn out the way they did last year. Recall that in 2011 we won the first UNC game only after a monumental comeback, then lost the second one. But after an entire week of hearing how much better UNC was and them hearing how great they were, we played with more fire in the ACC tournament. I also think they would up with a tougher path to get to the final, but that's impossible to predict. Even among teams with the same records, there are teams I wouldn't want to face (NC State) and teams I wouldn't mind facing (Virginia).

[Olympic Fan]

I kind of agree with UCake that records aren't always the best guide to the danger of matchups. Going into the tournament, I alwys LOVE facing a team that beat us in our last matchup. When is the last time anybody did that and then beat us in the tournament? I think it was Wake in '95, when we were a terrible team.

For that reason, I'd look forward to a matchup with Miami. I also wouldn't mind meeting Virginia -- I don't think they are strong enough without Sene to beat Duke. I just don't think Clemson has enough talent to beat Duke.

Of the four mid-level teams, the only one that I don't want to face is NC State. It could be that we're in their heads and they would roll over for us, but I think they left Durham angry that they blew that game and would welcome another shot at us. Not saying they would win it, but I believe that they are the most dangerous of the teams in the 4-7 battle.

As for the lower teams, the on I'd like to avoid is Virginia Tech. I know their record isn't very good, but they play everybody close and they seem to match up well with Duke. I think they are a very talented young team that is getting better.

Other than that, I just don't see any of the lower echelon teams beating us -- Maryland isn't strong enough inside and BC, Georgia Tech and Wake just don't have enough talent.

Obviously, a matchup with FSU and/or UNC would be a war ... but, heck, to be the best, you've got to beat the best. Agree that by winning Saturday, we avoid having to beat both of them.

On the other hand, I still remember 2009 when we got the third seed, which is the worst in a lot of ways -- you have to play the late game every day and you get tougher matchups. But we cruised through, beating a tough BC team (that had beaten us by 10 in the last reguar season matchup), got No. 7 Maryland instead of the expected matchup with No. 2 Wake Fiorest, then got No. 4 FSU instead of No. 1 UNC.

Plus, we won it all from the No. 2 seed last year.

So while I'd prefer the 1 seed, I wouldn't lose sleep over having the No. 2 seed.

[CoachJ10]

After Thurs eve games, we now know where 2 teams will finish in ACC race: FSU certain to finish #3, and Md. certain to finish #8.

Likely to be a tie for #4 and #6, between teams and possibilities too numerous to mention. Miami now a solid bet to get to 9-7 and at least a tie for #4, as they finish up at home with BC. Blow that, and their bubble bursts. But even if they get to 9-7, they lose ACCT-seed-tiebreaker to both NCSt and UVa, should either win on road on Sunday. Result of NCSt's visit to VaT Sun eve, last game of season, will determine seeds 4-7, I think. [Check me on this, somebody.]

In Sene's absence, UVa has had trouble. Check out their rebounds tonight v. FSU.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320610258

You don't think the ACC could get only 3 in NCAAT?

It would be shocking to me if Virginia, Miami and NC State all finished with 0.500 or better conference play records and did not make the tournament...especially in a season where we are adding 3 more teams to the NCAA field.

I would be even more disgruntled if the ACC squads non-invites came at the expense of Big East and Big Ten+2 teams getting the nods (conferences who have been getting a lot of love by the "experts" but whom I personally think have been vastly overrated over the last month and a half). I know people claim that conference affiliation is not looked at by the committee...but I've always thought that doesn't pass the smell test to me.

[gumbomoop]

I'm posting this after the UNC game. My immediate interest, thus, is in the 7/10 seeds, but honestly, mostly the 7 seed. And painfully honestly, I prefer to see Clemson in the 7-spot. And like some others, I prefer to avoid revenge-minded NCSt.

Olympic Fan has outlined in post #43 above the 4-way-tie for 4-seed scenarios, and Clemson doesn't seem to wind up 7th in any of those.

The most obvious - and I'm thinking the only - way for Clemson to finish 7th is for Clemson to lose at FSU [likely], while both UVa [@Md] and NCSt [@VaT] win. The good news is that both UVa and NCSt should play with focus, as each still harbors NCAAT aspirations, but both do need to win - NCSt desperately, and UVa nervously.

This specific scenario - hardly guaranteed, but hardly wacky, either - would mean Clemson finishes 8-8 and winds up 7-seed. Miami, UVa, and NCSt would all finish 9-7. By tiebreaking rules, UVa gets 4-seed, NCSt 5-seed, Miami 6-seed.

Again, in this specific scenario, Duke gets Clemson/10-seed winner, FSU gets Miami/11-seed winner, UVa gets NCSt/12-seed winner, UNC gets Md/9-seed winner.

Duke and UNC would have roughly equal quarterfinal opponents. If Duke and UNC both win on Fri, Duke should get FSU-Miami quarter winner; while UNC should get UVa-NCSt quarter winner.

Although all this assumes far too much to "predict" semifinal matchups, it does seem to me that Clemson as 7-seed is a preferable "first step."

If you agree, please root [more effectively than you did very, very recently] for wins tomorrow by FSU, UVa, and NCSt.

Or, if all this hurts your brain, and/or if you tend to follow the "Be Careful What You Wish For" caution, then by all means have a pleasant, ACC-less Sunday afternoon, and let the chips fall where they may.

[gumbomoop]

While the rest of you have been in church, I have been out chopping and stacking wood, in case winter this year is scheduled for April. I do believe in sin; but it seems a sin, or at least not good, to freeze to death, in April, around Easter, no less. Chopping wood, you will concede, is less sinful than cussing. Except when there's a knot in the log, in which case chopping and cussing occur pretty much simultaneously.

Chopping [and cussing] all done, time to think a little about the ACCT. Below an outline of seed scenarios for #s 4-7. I think I have it, with one exception.

Three games this final day: Clemson @ FSU [ESPN2], then UVa at Md [ACC Network], then NCS @ VT [ESPNU]. Eight possible scenarios for slots 4-7.

Scenario 1 - my preference, as it’s the only one which slots Clemson into #7.
Clemson loses, UVa and NCS both win = 4 UVa 5 NCS 6 Miami 7 Clemson

Scenario 2
Clemson loses, UVa wins, NCS loses = 4 UVa 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS

Scenario 3
Clemson loses, UVa loses , NCS wins = 4 NCS 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 UVa

Scenario 4
Clemson, UVa, and NCS all lose = 4 Miami 5 Clemson 6 UVa 7 NCS

Scenario 5- a puzzler, as ACC tiebreaker rule in this scenario is indecipherable, by me; see Olympic Fan’s post #43, this thread.
Clemson, UVa, and NCS all win = 4 UVa 5 NCS/Clemson 6 NCS/Clemson 7 Miami

Scenario 6
Clemson wins, UVa wins, NCS loses = 4 UVa 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS

Scenario 7
Clemson wins, UVa loses, NCS wins = 4 NCS 5 Clemson 6 Miami 7 UVa

Scenario 8
Clemson wins, UVa and NCS lose = 4 Miami 5 Clemson 6 UVa 7 NCS

.....................

After today’s first game, we can eliminate either all of Scenarios 1-4, or all of 5-8. Maybe I’ll update around 2:15ish, at beginning of Uva @ Md.

March Madness, match madness.

[Olympic Fan]

Great work -- and I agree that I'd like to see Clemson as the No. 7 seed.

Now you need to work on tiebreakers for the 10th spt.

One thing is certain -- if Virginia Tech beats State, they get No. 9 -- no tiebeakers involved.

In that case, Wake Fiorest wins the three-way tiebreaker for 10th and is in the bracker with the No. 7 seed to face Duke in the semifinals.

If NC State beats Virginia Tech, then we have a four-way tie for last (9th-12th) and Wake Forest wins the four-way tiebreaker and gets to play Maryland in the 8-9 game. That would put Virginia Tech at No. 10 and in our bracket. Not sure I like that.

So my goal today (and I agree, this might be a be careful what you wish for scenario) would be for Clemson to wind up No. 7 and Wake Forest No. 10.

It's not going to be easy in any case -- but to me, I'd like a "little" breather in the quarters -- Clemson or Wake Forest. To me, the worst possible scenari would be to have to beat NC State, FSU and UNC to win it all. Then again, the tougher the road, the greater the glory.

[gumbomoop]

Clemson loses, so we can eliminate Scenarios 5-8 from post #50 above. That leaves only four scenarios for slots 4-7. Here I simply copy/paste from post #50.

Scenario 1 - my preference, as it’s the only one which slots Clemson into #7.
Clemson loses, UVa and NCS both win = 4 UVa 5 NCS 6 Miami 7 Clemson

Scenario 2
Clemson loses, UVa wins, NCS loses = 4 UVa 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS

Scenario 3
Clemson loses, UVa loses , NCS wins = 4 NCS 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 UVa

Scenario 4
Clemson, UVa, and NCS all lose = 4 Miami 5 Clemson 6 UVa 7 NCS

Go Hoos, go Pack. Maybe I'll update after UVa-Md game, to get to the final 2 scenarios for 7-10.

[gumbomoop]

One thing is certain -- if Virginia Tech beats State, they get No. 9 -- no tiebeakers involved.

In that case, Wake Fiorest wins the three-way tiebreaker for 10th and is in the bracker with the No. 7 seed to face Duke in the semifinals.

If NC State beats Virginia Tech, then we have a four-way tie for last (9th-12th) and Wake Forest wins the four-way tiebreaker and gets to play Maryland in the 8-9 game. That would put Virginia Tech at No. 10 and in our bracket. Not sure I like that.

So my goal today (and I agree, this might be a be careful what you wish for scenario) would be for Clemson to wind up No. 7 and Wake Forest No. 10.

If I understand the work you've done on 9-12 slots, I'm not sure it's possible for Clemson to finish 7 and Wake 10. The only way Clemson gets 7 is if NCS wins over VaT [and UVa wins, too]. But if I read you right [tag quote] above, a win by NCS slots VaT into 10.

My head hurts.

[CDu]

Clemson loses, so we can eliminate Scenarios 5-8 from post #50 above. That leaves only four scenarios for slots 4-7. Here I simply copy/paste from post #50.

Scenario 1 - my preference, as it’s the only one which slots Clemson into #7.
Clemson loses, UVa and NCS both win = 4 UVa 5 NCS 6 Miami 7 Clemson

Scenario 2
Clemson loses, UVa wins, NCS loses = 4 UVa 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS

Scenario 3
Clemson loses, UVa loses , NCS wins = 4 NCS 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 UVa

Scenario 4
Clemson, UVa, and NCS all lose = 4 Miami 5 Clemson 6 UVa 7 NCS

Go Hoos, go Pack. Maybe I'll update after UVa-Md game, to get to the final 2 scenarios for 7-10.

I'll be cheering for scenario 1 or 3. I don't want to face the Pack again. UVa plays tough defense and Scott is a matchup nightmare. But I like our chances against them. State has a similar matchup nightmare in Leslie and also adds a bit more scoring depth. And they'll really want another shot at us after the debacle in Cameron. So GO PACK!!!

[GLTBD]

VA and Maryland currently in OT. Go VA.

[gumbomoop]

Virginia wins in OT, secures ACCT 4-seed, and probably secures NCAAT bid. We are now down to the following 2 scenarios to determine the 5-7 seeds.

Scenario 1 - Clemson loses, UVa and NCS both win = 5 NCS 6 Miami 7 Clemson

Scenario 2 - Clemson loses, UVa wins, NCS loses = 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS

Go Pack! If Pack wins today, they're still on NCAA bubble, and could get in by getting to ACCT semis and whipping Heels. Pack has every reason to think, "We gotta win today, if we want to stay in hunt for NCAA bubble-bid." Good thinking, Pack!

[Olympic Fan]

Okay, FSU beat Clemson and Virginia survived Maryland in OT (after blowing a late 12-point lead in regulation). That means one game left and just two possible scenarios:

If NC State wins at Virginia Tech:

1. UNC
2, Duke
3, FSU
4. Virginia
5. NC State
6. Miami
7. Clemson
8. Maryland
9. Wake Forest
10. Va Tech
11. Georgia Tech
12. Boston College

So Duke would get the Clemson-Va tech winner on Friday at 7 p.m.

But if Virginia Tech wins at home tonight (6 p.m. start), it's:

1. UNC
2. Duke
3. FSU
4. Virginia
5. Miami
6. Clemson
7. N.C. State
8. Maryland
9. Va Tech
10. Wake Forest
11. Georgia Tech
12. Boston College

So Duke would get the NC State-Wake Forest winner Friday at 7 p.m.

[Bob Green]

Scenario 1 - my preference, as it’s the only one which slots Clemson into #7.
Clemson loses, UVa and NCS both win = 4 UVa 5 NCS 6 Miami 7 Clemson

Scenario 2
Clemson loses, UVa wins, NCS loses = 4 UVa 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS



We are down to two scenarios and I'll be rooting hard for N.C. State to defeat Virginia Tech.

[gumbomoop]

Dear Seth Greenberg,

You want to get to the NCAAT this year, right? Finally, right? Ok, listen up. Only chance is to win ACCT. How to do that? Think, Seth, think strategically.

1. Lose tonight v. Pack. Deliberately. Lose this game. Think strategically.
2. This puts Hokies in Duke's side of bracket, avoids Heels for awhile. See #6 below.
3. Beat Clemson on Thurs. Piece of cake.
4. Kill Blue Devils on Fri. Duke is soft; everybody knows it. Kill 'em. Piece of cake.
5. Beat whoever - FSU? Miami? - in semis. Piece of cake.
6. Hope Cavs or Pack beats Heels in semis. Hope? Hope?? It's all you got, Seth.
7. Beat not-Heels in Finals on Sun.
8. NCAAT!

Cordially yours,

A True Blue Hokie