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tommy
01-25-2012, 01:52 AM
Charting Our Defense: Florida State

This may be the last of these "Charting Our Defense" threads that I start. They're terribly time-consuming, and I sense that interest on the board in these numbers is waning. Which is fine. Not offended at all. Perhaps one reason why it is waning is that the information that can be gained from this type of charting has been gained. It's pretty obvious that Miles Plumlee, over the course of most of the season (though not against FSU, as we shall see) has been our most active and best interior defender. Tyler Thornton, contrary to early season conventional wisdom, is far from a lockdown defender on the perimeter. Neither is Quinn Cook. Seth Curry and Austin Rivers get their quick hands on a lot of balls and move their feet pretty well. Andre Dawkins has been pretty ordinary in most respects, defensively speaking, still missing a lot of assignments as a junior. So maybe we're not likely to gain a lot of new insights by continuing this kind of charting.

I also again wanted to let you guys know that defensive charting of a different sort will soon be posted on Airowe's blog, dukehoopblog.com. It will include some formulas conceived by experts to measure things like defensive efficiency, defensive rating, and the like, that are based on a lot of the numbers that I am putting together here on DBR, but will not include other numbers that I'm charting, like staying in front of your man, help, ball denial, etc. Both types of charting have value, in my opinion. One or the other may be more to your liking, or you may also enjoy both.

So again, for this type of charting, those of you guys interested in it probably know by now the legend that I use in these tables. If not, or if you haven't seen this before, refer to one of the earlier "Charting our Defense" threads for a full description of what all this means. I just didn't want to continue to post the legend, because it's long, and continue to clog up my post with it.

As for the FSU game, I decided to break the tables down into the first and second halves, to look at just what a Jekyll-and-Hyde performance it was for us defensively. And man, was it. Our first half numbers were some of the best we've seen all year, and our second half numbers were so bad I almost couldn't believe them when I was tallying them up. Everyone knew it was bad as we watched it, but this bad? Wow.

But I have to say, in my play-by-play, or actually frame-by-frame review of the second half, which I did in order to post in the excellent "What's Really Wrong With Our Defense" thread started by Kedsy, the majority of our defensive lapses in the second half were failures of communication, failures to help sufficiently, loss of attention, and those sorts of things, much more so than just being beaten off the dribble, being dominated in the paint physically, getting backdoored, or other more purely physical failings. And frankly, FSU executed well and hit a number of tough shots. So the stop % numbers look bad, as they should, but the individual numbers -- while certainly not good -- don't look as bad as one might anticipate. I did chart a lot of "got beaten - other" and certainly a fair number of those account for the failures to communicate, maintain focus, and the other things I saw in the more detailed play-by-play review.

I'm going to post the cumulative numbers for all the games I've charted in a separate thread if you're interested in those. Also, the DBR software, which is so terrific in many respects, is not being friendly to my including multiple tables in a single post. So I'll break them up into separate posts. Sorry bout that but I've been futzing with it for way too long, trying to get it to accept all the tables in one post, and I can't do it anymore.

OK here's the first table for FSU:

First half (caveat: I couldn't chart the first 5 minutes, as ESPN was wrapping up another game and didn't cut to our game till about the 15 minute mark):






On floor
Engaged
FG miss (3's)
FG allowed (3's)
Turnover
FT miss
FT make
DPD
Denial +
Denial -
SIF +
SIF-
Help +
Help -
Beat-other


Curry
23
3
2 (2)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
1
0
0


Rivers
26
5
2 (1)
2(1)
0
0
2
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
2


Dawkins
13
4
1 (1)
2
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2


Mason
19
5
2.5
.5
0
1
1
1
2
2
0
0
0
0
2


Thornton
16
1
0
0
1
0
0
6
0
0
1
0
0
0
0


Kelly
17
5
1
.5
2
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0


Miles
18
4
.5
1 (1)
1
0
0
0
3
0
0
1
0
0
1


Cook
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0


Gbinije
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0


Hairston
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

tommy
01-25-2012, 02:13 AM
On floor
Engaged
FG miss (3's)
FG allowed (3's)
Turnover
FT miss
FT make
DPD
Denial +
Denial -
SIF +
SIF-
Help +
Help -
Beat-other


Curry
30
5
0
1.5
1
1
1
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
2


Rivers
31
10
2
[TD.83(.33)[/TD]
2
0
2
0
1
0
1
0
0
2
2


Dawkins
30
6
2 (1)
2.5 (1.5)
1
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
1


Mason
27
7
2
2.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
1


Thornton
14
2
0
2.33 (1.33)
0
0
0
2
1
0
1
1
0
0
0


Kelly
23
5
1
.33 (.33)
0
0
4
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0


Miles
20
9
1
6 (.5)
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
2
1
0
1


Cook
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0


Gbinije
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0


Hairston
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

tommy
01-25-2012, 02:28 AM
OK here are the stop % charts, broken down by halves for FSU:

1st half:




Stops
Scores
Stop %


Curry
14
8
64%


Rivers
16
9
64%


Dawkins
8
4
67%


Mason
13
6
68%


Thornton
8
6
57%


Kelly
11
5
69%


Miles
10
7
59%


Cook
2
0
100%


Gbinije





Hairston





TEAM
16
9
64%




























Though Miles was far off his usual defensive game, even in the first half, we'd take these numbers any day of the week.

Now, for the second half. If you have to look.

2nd half:




Stops
Scores
Stop %


Curry
8
22
27%


Rivers
8
22
27%


Dawkins
9
20
31%


Mason
6
21
22%


Thornton
5
8
38%


Kelly
7
15
32%


Miles
7
12
37%


Cook





Gbinije





Hairston





TEAM
10
24
29%




























Amazing. Not that they were all his fault, or even a lot of them, but Mason Plumlee was on the floor for 27 second half possessions and FSU scored points on 21 of them. We did much better with Kelly and Miles in there. But I don't care who's out there. Who could imagine any Duke team allowing its opponent to score on 71% of its possessions?

jv001
01-25-2012, 07:25 AM
Thanks tommy for another good chart. This confirms my eye test as I reviewed the game. Miles and Mason just had a bad game, especially the 2nd half. I think most of the bad defense didn't come from an athletic problem, but came from mental breakdowns. I don't know what that came from. I guess you could say they lacked focus. That's a term Coach K has used in the past when we make mental mistakes. I look for the guys to come out "focused" tonight and spoil Gary's court naming. GoDuke!

NSDukeFan
01-25-2012, 08:50 AM
Charting Our Defense: Florida State

...

First half (caveat: I couldn't chart the first 5 minutes, as ESPN was wrapping up another game and didn't cut to our game till about the 15 minute mark):


Grrrrrrrrrrrr :mad:

Thanks for the effort and the good discussions that have resulted from your charts and comments.

devildeac
01-25-2012, 09:08 AM
Applauding your work again, I wonder if there is a way you could just summarize your findings for us without spending so much time on your writing and organization of tables. The stats have been great and you have established a significant trust with DBR readers and I'd certainly trust you if you could/would provide some bullet points after each game for us to digest and discuss. I'd hate to lose your analysis completely.

dyedwab
01-25-2012, 09:17 AM
Although I rarely comment, I look forward to reading these analyses after games, so I appreciate all the hard work you put it.

And I'd appreciate any insight on our defense you continue to provide. I know from experience in other fields that when you watch something intensely and specifically for a significant period of time, it changes the way you watch something forever. So I assume you will be seeing things about our defense quickly and easily in a way most of us don't.

As for takeaways from your work so far, here's what I get.

1) Miles is our best defensive player, and there really isn't a close second.
2) We don't really have an exceptional defensive player (like Craft on Ohio State), but we have guys who can play defensive
3) Many, if not most, of our lapses are about communication and being in the wrong place, which is a solvable problem over time. But it will persist as a problem throughout the season

Many thanks again for you hard work. These threads have taught me a lot

jv001
01-25-2012, 10:53 AM
Applauding your work again, I wonder if there is a way you could just summarize your findings for us without spending so much time on your writing and organization of tables. The stats have been great and you have established a significant trust with DBR readers and I'd certainly trust you if you could/would provide some bullet points after each game for us to digest and discuss. I'd hate to lose your analysis completely.

I completely agree with devildeac. You have gained my trust as I've looked back on the games myself and your findings pretty much agree with my own. I appreciate the time and effort you put into your work. I would like to see you continue and if you could just summarize your findings that would be great. Good idea devildeac. GoDuke!

Kedsy
01-25-2012, 04:10 PM
For the sake of completeness, I've put together the full game table for the FSU game, ,by combining Tommy's two tables:




Stops
Scores
Stop %


Curry
22
30
42%


Rivers
24
31
44%


Dawkins
17
24
41%


Mason
19
27
41%


Thornton
13
14
48%


Kelly
18
20
47%


Miles
17
19
47%


Cook
2
0
100%


Gbinije





Hairston





TEAM
26
33
44%



So even on his worst defensive game, Miles was one of our top defensive players.

Thanks again, Tommy, for your hard work on this topic.

Hopefully, moving forward, our defense will play more games like the first half against FSU, and fewer games like the second half.

tommy
01-25-2012, 06:19 PM
Hey guys,

Thanks so much for your kind words. Means a lot. It's not the actual table creation and write-ups that take so long, it's the time it takes to watch and re-watch and re-re-watch (sometimes) every defensive play in order to confirm what each guy is doing and write it down on a form I devised that is the time-consuming part.

I really appreciate the kudos you guys, and others, have given me for all of this, as well as the trust you've expressed in me and my analysis based on this work. I may be able to at least continue the stop % charting, as that's a lot easier to do, and I'd be happy to continue to provide analysis of our defense for anyone who's interested. Maybe I'll do full charting for selected games, like maybe UNC or something.

As one of you guys suggested, once you really start to observe something in detail over a period of time, it does change the way you watch it in the future. That has certainly happened for me, as I find myself seeing much more on the defensive end than I used to even notice, in particular some of then nuances of our scheme as well as the ability to detect with greater confidence issues of lack of focus, lack of communication, and lack of effort (and their opposites.) So this has really been educational for me, for sure.

Thanks again guys, and let's just hope that going forward the Devils can just frickin' bring it on D, starting tonight. The ability is there.