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View Full Version : Will Kendall Marshall break Hurley's record?



1999ballboy
01-19-2012, 02:38 AM
We're honestly reaching the point where that's a pretty legitimate question to ask. And the numbers do in fact support the notion that he well could. Marshall has a total of 403 career assists midway through his sophomore season- so figure, 3/8 of his career. 403x8/3 = 1074, which is just 2 assists shy of Hurley's 1076. Keeping in mind that he was unthinkably saddled in favor of Larry Drew Who during half of his freshman year, and that he's got 2.5 more years to improve, it does seem likely.

On the other hand, he's fed passes to exceptionally post-heavy teams over the past year and a half. After Zeller and Henson leave, their scoring will be shared by more guys that can create their own shots, thus leading to fewer assists.

Still, I think all things considered, Marshall is the best candidate to break Hurley's record that I can remember. That is, unless he goes pro.

Dr. Rosenrosen
01-19-2012, 05:38 AM
Records are made to be broken. He'll never be clutch like Hurley was. Not even close.

mkline09
01-19-2012, 06:48 AM
He very well could surpass Hurley's record but that is about all he'll do. He is a magnificent passer but not much of anything else. He doesn't play defense like Hurley did. Not nearly as intense as Hurley was and not even in the same ball park as an offensive player and scoring threat. You definitely had to respect Hurley's jumper, Marshall not so much. He is though, a nice piece in Roy's scheme that doesn't require the point to be the chief on ball defender so for where he is at he is a very good player, just not even close to Hurley, record or no record.

Bluedevil114
01-19-2012, 07:17 AM
Records are made to be broken. He'll never be clutch like Hurley was. Not even close.

He also will not win two National Championships!! #11 for ever!!

toooskies
01-19-2012, 09:36 AM
Marshall will be high on draft boards in a year with few quality PGs in the NCAA. I don't expect him to stick around for four years. Especially if Barnes/Henson go pro after this season, and UNC ends up with a particularly young team.

Mike Corey
01-19-2012, 09:38 AM
I do not believe Mr. Tiger's son will be at North C*rolina long enough to break Hurley's record.

TampaDuke
01-19-2012, 10:41 AM
Not sure if he'll surpass Hurley's assists, but I for one am interested to see how effective Marshall will be in ACC play this year as compared to last.

Part of me thinks that him playing behind Drew last year means that he should have more room to improve this year (and the next two) and may be even better. But part of me also thinks that playing behind Drew for half a season meant that (1) he looked better last year than he actually is, by comparison to Drew, and (2) opponents were less able to prepare for his style, weaknesses, etc. last year as opposed to what they'll do this year.

In any event, I agree completely with the posters above -- Marshall will never be Hurley, regardless of how many assists he racks up.

Deshawnj
01-19-2012, 11:38 AM
I agree that he will turn pro before he gets close, but he is the most realistic person in a while to have a shot at the record.

Jderf
01-19-2012, 12:03 PM
(Full disclosure: I admit, first of all, that I am biased. I actively want Hurley to be regarded more highly than Marshall, and I admittedly have an agenda in posting this, so take anything written here with a grain of salt. That said, I believe the numbers speak for themselves.)

A similar topic came up last year, and at the time a poster (I can't remember who specifically) mentioned that Marshall's assist numbers seemed to be somewhat higher at the Dean Dome than at other arenas. The numbers appeared to bear that out, but they were at best inconclusive; the sample size was too small to outweigh the plausible explanation that freshman nerves simply made him play worse away from home court. At the time, I said, "Fair enough."

Now that Marshall has a decent number of games under his belt and has presumably shaken those freshman nerves, I figured this would be as good a time as any to take another look at the numbers. So I went and tallied up his career assist totals for both home games and away/neutral games, starting with the Jan 18 game against Clemson. I chose this game for two reasons: first, to save me some tallying work; second, because this was when he was inserted into the starting line-up. The numbers are startling.

Home assists per game: 9.3
Away/neutral assists per game: 6.4


So what we have here is a 3 apg discrepancy between the Dean Dome and other sites. At first, I wasn't even sure if this was a normal discrepancy or not, so I decided to compare it against Bobby's numbers from his senior year. Perhaps, to be fair, I should have done his sophomore or freshman year, but at this point I am just too lazy to go back and add up the numbers again (plus I should probably be working right now). Sorry. In any case, Mr. Hurley's discrepancy is much more favorable, at 0.9 apg (Home:8.7, Away/Neutral:7.8).

Now, I admit that this is by no means conclusive proof that Marshall has benefited from home cooking. But it opens the door for skepticism, and I think it requires some kind of explanation. Granted, there are many interesting explanations that are possible, but while I can't speak for everyone, I know which one I'm more inclined to believe.

Of course, this still doesn't negate the fact that Kendall Marshall is in fact an amazing passer, one of the best the ACC has seen in a long, long time. But if we are comparing him to the greatest in NCAA history, I think the discrepancy between home and away games needs to be taken into consideration. Given the choice, I'd take Bobby.

Duvall
01-19-2012, 12:08 PM
(Full disclosure: I admit, first of all, that I am biased. I actively want Hurley to be regarded more highly than Marshall, and I admittedly have an agenda in posting this, so take anything written here with a grain of salt. That said, I believe the numbers speak for themselves.)

A similar topic came up last year, and at the time a poster (I can't remember who specifically) mentioned that Marshall's assist numbers seemed to be somewhat higher at the Dean Dome than at other arenas. The numbers appeared to bear that out, but they were at best inconclusive; the sample size was too small to outweigh the plausible explanation that freshman nerves simply made him play worse away from home court. At the time, I said, "Fair enough."

Now that Marshall has a decent number of games under his belt and has presumably shaken those freshman nerves, I figured this would be as good a time as any to take another look at the numbers. So I went and tallied up his career assist totals for both home games and away/neutral games, starting with the Jan 18 game against Clemson. I chose this game for two reasons: first, to save me some tallying work; second, because this was when he was inserted into the starting line-up. The numbers are startling.

Home assists per game: 9.3
Away/neutral assists per game: 6.4


So what we have here is a 3.1 apg discrepancy between the Dean Dome and other sites. At first, I wasn't even sure if this was a normal discrepancy or not, so I decided to compare it against Bobby's numbers from his senior year. Perhaps, to be fair, I should have done his sophomore or freshman year, but at this point I am just too lazy to go back and add up the numbers again (plus I should probably be working right now). Sorry. In any case, Mr. Hurley's discrepancy is much more favorable, at 0.9 apg (Home:8.7, Away/Neutral:7.8).

Now, I admit that this is by no means conclusive proof that Marshall has benefited from home cooking. But it opens the door for skepticism, and I think it requires some kind of explanation. Granted, there are many interesting explanations that are possible, but while I can't speak for everyone, I know which one I'm more inclined to believe.

Luke Winn looked at this earlier in the season. (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/12/01/power.rankings/index.html)

It's possible that UNC just plays much worse away from home.

Jderf
01-19-2012, 12:23 PM
Luke Winn looked at this earlier in the season. (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/12/01/power.rankings/index.html)

It's possible that UNC just plays much worse away from home.

Well that link could have saved me some time, though I'm still not so sure. Luke Winn only looked at the first seven games of this season, exactly the portion of the year when UNC is playing cupcakes and Marshall wouldn't need any help racking up obscene totals. Why would you add 3 assists when the player is already putting up 14s and 15s? To convince me, I would have liked to see a similar analysis for the end of last season (when Nolan was prevented from becoming the only player to EVER lead the ACC in both assists and points) as well as the games since. That said, I'm always open to the possibility that I'm simply way off base. I just thought it was interesting.

JNort
01-19-2012, 01:58 PM
I am not so sure he could do it. He gets a ton of assists just because of Henson and Zeller who should both be in the NBA this time next year. The best shooter on the team is probably Barnes and he to is more than likely gone as well so Marshall will not have the luxury of all these people to pass to. I would also like to add that after looking around on mock drafts, most of them have Marshall being taken middle first round to a little later first round. If he wants to keep his stock that high then he needs to go when the others leave.

Kedsy
01-19-2012, 02:05 PM
I am not so sure he could do it. He gets a ton of assists just because of Henson and Zeller who should both be in the NBA this time next year. The best shooter on the team is probably Barnes and he to is more than likely gone as well so Marshall will not have the luxury of all these people to pass to.

Do you really think after Barnes and Zeller and Henson leave that UNC won't have plenty of guys who can score?

Phoenix lost everyone from the old D'Antoni scoring machine, yet Steve Nash keeps piling up the assists.

NSDukeFan
01-19-2012, 02:06 PM
I am not so sure he could do it. He gets a ton of assists just because of Henson and Zeller who should both be in the NBA this time next year. The best shooter on the team is probably Barnes and he to is more than likely gone as well so Marshall will not have the luxury of all these people to pass to. I would also like to add that after looking around on mock drafts, most of them have Marshall being taken middle first round to a little later first round. If he wants to keep his stock that high then he needs to go when the others leave.

Good point that he has some good targets for assists right now that won't be around the next couple of years. Another thing to consider is that if he does stay around for two more years, it is possible that he may improve enough to become one of the better scoring options for Carolina as an upperclassman. At this point, he is usually the fifth best scoring option on the floor, so is always looking for others' shots. This might prevent his assist totals from increasing any in the next couple of years, if he stays.

UrinalCake
01-19-2012, 02:18 PM
First off, Hurley played in 140 games in his career, which translates to 35 per season. Teams nowadays that advance far in the ACC and NCAA tournamenst can play more like 37 or 38 games on average, which gives Marshall an advantage, though I guess that is somewhat offset by the fact that he didn't get to start the first half of last year.

I think he's either going to go pro this year or he'll stay all four. This year's draft is weak on point guards, and as many have said the team will probably drop off significantly next year.

Regarding home vs. away assists, what we really need are the stats from just ACC games. Every team (including Duke) plays a handful of cupcakes at home that totally skew the stats. Even though the ACC schedule isn't perfectly balanced, it would come a lot closer to a fair sample.

jjasper0729
01-19-2012, 03:00 PM
For the record, the statistician at UNC home games giving Marshall his assists also happens to be the former statistician at Duke that gave Hurley his assists (at home games of course). Therefore, I trust that if he gets an assist at home, he's actually earned it.

One has to keep in mind that 1) UNC plays much better at home than on the road (last couple of years should back that up) and 2) Marshall is the passer of choice and pretty much is the one that does all the assisting. There are very rarely any other UNC players that are close to him in the box score. I asked DBR's Barry Jacobs a little earlier this season if Marshall was really averaging double digit assists and he emphatically said yes, as Marshall is the primary (and sometimes secondary) ball handler. In addition, Williams' style is to run so there are many many more posessions for Marshall to accumulate his assists.

biscuit30
01-19-2012, 03:00 PM
First off, Hurley played in 140 games in his career, which translates to 35 per season. Teams nowadays that advance far in the ACC and NCAA tournamenst can play more like 37 or 38 games on average, which gives Marshall an advantage, though I guess that is somewhat offset by the fact that he didn't get to start the first half of last year.

I think he's either going to go pro this year or he'll stay all four. This year's draft is weak on point guards, and as many have said the team will probably drop off significantly next year.

Regarding home vs. away assists, what we really need are the stats from just ACC games. Every team (including Duke) plays a handful of cupcakes at home that totally skew the stats. Even though the ACC schedule isn't perfectly balanced, it would come a lot closer to a fair sample.

Wasn't the shot clock :45 seconds for at least on of Hurley's freshman season? Meaning fewer possesions?

DUKIE V(A)
01-19-2012, 04:33 PM
If I had to bet, I would bet on #11 retaining his record beyond Marshall (injuries, the possibility of leaving early, less talent around him, difficulty maintaining his current pace, etc.)...

throatybeard
01-19-2012, 05:46 PM
Wasn't the shot clock :45 seconds for at least on of Hurley's freshman season? Meaning fewer possesions?

I could be misremembering this, but I thought Grant Hill's senior year (1993-94) was the year that they went to the 35-second shot clock. If that's accurate, Hurley's whole career would have been with a 45-second shot clock.

Lauderdevil
01-19-2012, 06:01 PM
I am not so sure he could do it. He gets a ton of assists just because of Henson and Zeller who should both be in the NBA this time next year. The best shooter on the team is probably Barnes and he to is more than likely gone as well so Marshall will not have the luxury of all these people to pass to.

I read somewhere that UNC is planning on playing five players on the court next season even if Henson, Zeller and Barnes leave. Marshall will still have plenty of people to pass to, and those guys will be scorers.

Kdogg
01-19-2012, 07:11 PM
For some reason Hurley's record is near and dear to me so I've given this some thought starting last season. (I also like the fact that the ACC has four of the five career NCAA assist leaders.) Marshall is definitely the best candidate to break the record since TJ Ford at Texas. As long as teams let UNC run and gun he has a real chance even if Henson, Zeller, and Barnes leave. Ed Cota's assist numbers increased when Jamison, Carter and Williams left in 1998. Those guys are better than the current UNC trio. Next season UNC will have McAdoo, Bullock and Hairston - all capable scorers and probably better than Lang, Capel and Haywood. If he stays four years and UNC is allowed to run and gun the record is in jeopardy. I'm not sure I see him leaving early. The NBA has moved away from the pass first point guard. Ed Cota couldn't even get drafted and he was quicker and a better defender. (Both are offensively challenged.)

biscuit30
01-19-2012, 09:46 PM
I could be misremembering this, but I thought Grant Hill's senior year (1993-94) was the year that they went to the 35-second shot clock. If that's accurate, Hurley's whole career would have been with a 45-second shot clock.

You are correct. I looked it up on Wikipedia and it was 93-94 that the shot clock went from :45 to :35 seconds.

Scorp4me
01-20-2012, 12:36 PM
I read somewhere that UNC is planning on playing five players on the court next season even if Henson, Zeller and Barnes leave. Marshall will still have plenty of people to pass to, and those guys will be scorers.

Tell that to Greg Paulus.