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JasonEvans
01-16-2012, 10:48 AM
I took a snapshot of Ken Pomeroy's ratings on every ACC team prior to the weekend and then after the weekend was over. Seeing as each team played exactly one game, with some rather surprising results, I thought I would look to see what one game had done to each team's ranking.

First, a reminder of what Pom predicted and what actually happened:

UNC over FSU 74-68, actual result FSU won 90-57
Duke over Clemson 71-63, Duke won 73-66
NCSt over Wake 77-73, NC St won 76-40
GaT over Maryland 68-67, Maryland won 61-50
VaT over BC 68-56, BC won 61-59
Miami and Virginia were off for the weekend

So, we had Duke and Clemson produce expected results but all the other games ended up as surprises by Pom's predictions. Some of them were far, far from his expected results -- like 30 or 40 points off. How did these results impact his rankings? Here is each ACC's team's Pomeroy score and national ranking on Friday and again today.



Team Friday Rank Monday Rank
UNC .9507 7 .9291 10
Duke .9336 9 .9322 9
Virg .8777 26 .8836 26
VaT .8308 40 .8099 50
FSU .8291 41 .8800 29
Miami .7766 65 .7768 65
NCSU .7597 70 .8096 51
Clem .7029 100 .7160 89
GaT .6893 103 .6639 110
Mary .5193 159 .5338 157
Wake .5084 161 .4233 202
BC .2794 262 .3030 250

What jumps out at you? Obviously, FSU's jump is huge, more than .0500 points is a big move in Pom's rankings and it took them from a bubble team (#41) to being someone that should be a fairly obvious tournament team at #29. NC State had a similar, though not quite as pronounced, kind of move with their blowout win, gaining .0400 points. Carolina slipped but the huge move was Wake, tumbling .0750 points and falling out of the top 200 teams.

As expected, Duke did not move much. Interesting to note that Clemson improved a fair bit in his rankings after losing to Duke, though I suspect a fair bit of that may be Pom's system taking new views of Clemson's earlier opponents. We see evidence of this in Virginia, which gained .0060 points despite not even playing a game.

Also worth noting, Carolina's Defensive efficiency ranking fell from #6 to #13 while FSU's offense rose from #167 to #130. NC State would be a terror if they could figure out how to play D. Their Offensive efficiency rating is all the way up to #24 (was #30) but their D is #119 (it had been #160 before torching Wake).

-Jason "Just thought ya'll might find it interesting" Evans

SupaDave
01-16-2012, 11:19 AM
Very good analysis. This gives most of us the ACC that we thought we would have in the top 4. FSU, UVA, UNC, and Duke.

I fully expect UNC to have a few more losses and I wouldn't be surprised if Va Tech came out fired up and handed the Heels two in a row. Additionally disheartening for the Heels is that they still have to see UVA and NC State on the road. And I'm not so sure that they wont get swept by the Pack whose confidence is growing. 4 of UNC's last 6 games are on the road. They don't travel well. This could get ugly.

Depending on who you ask - Virginia's final stretch isn't so tough. They play UNC and Maryland twice, Florida State at home, and their last game is a bus ride away from home. They should finish at those last two weeks at .500.

FSU's schedule is just lovely with Wake, Miami, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Virginia Tech on the menu. NC State, Clemson, and UVA will present challenges but this year FSU makes it to the big dance for certain.

Duke also has a favorable schedule with Wake, Miami, St. Johns, Maryland, and Boston College on the menu. FSU will see where this Duke team is at and if they are ready to play perimeter defense. Duke should have fresh legs against UNC, having to only take a bus ride to Winston for Wake.

JasonEvans
01-16-2012, 02:03 PM
Side note-- I don't know why the ACC scheduled Miami and UVA with off days on a weekend. I could understand skipping a weekday more than a weekend when it is easier for fans to get to games. Strange, if you ask me.

By the way, as a result of both their unexpected (to Pom) win and their boost in the Pomeroy statistics, FSU went from being projected to finish 9-7 in the ACC to being projected to finish 11-5... a huge difference. Here are Pom's current ACC projections.

Duke 13-3
UNC 12-4
FSU 11-5
Virginia 10-6
NC St 9-7
Miami 8-8
Va Tech 7-9
Clemson 7-9
Ga Tech 7-9
Maryland 5-11
BC 4-12
Wake 4-12

-Jason "I am not sold on FSU being this good yet-- they've looked awful outside the UNC game... I also think BC may be finding themselves with a young team and may surprise some more" Evans