JasonEvans
01-16-2012, 10:48 AM
I took a snapshot of Ken Pomeroy's ratings on every ACC team prior to the weekend and then after the weekend was over. Seeing as each team played exactly one game, with some rather surprising results, I thought I would look to see what one game had done to each team's ranking.
First, a reminder of what Pom predicted and what actually happened:
UNC over FSU 74-68, actual result FSU won 90-57
Duke over Clemson 71-63, Duke won 73-66
NCSt over Wake 77-73, NC St won 76-40
GaT over Maryland 68-67, Maryland won 61-50
VaT over BC 68-56, BC won 61-59
Miami and Virginia were off for the weekend
So, we had Duke and Clemson produce expected results but all the other games ended up as surprises by Pom's predictions. Some of them were far, far from his expected results -- like 30 or 40 points off. How did these results impact his rankings? Here is each ACC's team's Pomeroy score and national ranking on Friday and again today.
Team Friday Rank Monday Rank
UNC .9507 7 .9291 10
Duke .9336 9 .9322 9
Virg .8777 26 .8836 26
VaT .8308 40 .8099 50
FSU .8291 41 .8800 29
Miami .7766 65 .7768 65
NCSU .7597 70 .8096 51
Clem .7029 100 .7160 89
GaT .6893 103 .6639 110
Mary .5193 159 .5338 157
Wake .5084 161 .4233 202
BC .2794 262 .3030 250
What jumps out at you? Obviously, FSU's jump is huge, more than .0500 points is a big move in Pom's rankings and it took them from a bubble team (#41) to being someone that should be a fairly obvious tournament team at #29. NC State had a similar, though not quite as pronounced, kind of move with their blowout win, gaining .0400 points. Carolina slipped but the huge move was Wake, tumbling .0750 points and falling out of the top 200 teams.
As expected, Duke did not move much. Interesting to note that Clemson improved a fair bit in his rankings after losing to Duke, though I suspect a fair bit of that may be Pom's system taking new views of Clemson's earlier opponents. We see evidence of this in Virginia, which gained .0060 points despite not even playing a game.
Also worth noting, Carolina's Defensive efficiency ranking fell from #6 to #13 while FSU's offense rose from #167 to #130. NC State would be a terror if they could figure out how to play D. Their Offensive efficiency rating is all the way up to #24 (was #30) but their D is #119 (it had been #160 before torching Wake).
-Jason "Just thought ya'll might find it interesting" Evans
First, a reminder of what Pom predicted and what actually happened:
UNC over FSU 74-68, actual result FSU won 90-57
Duke over Clemson 71-63, Duke won 73-66
NCSt over Wake 77-73, NC St won 76-40
GaT over Maryland 68-67, Maryland won 61-50
VaT over BC 68-56, BC won 61-59
Miami and Virginia were off for the weekend
So, we had Duke and Clemson produce expected results but all the other games ended up as surprises by Pom's predictions. Some of them were far, far from his expected results -- like 30 or 40 points off. How did these results impact his rankings? Here is each ACC's team's Pomeroy score and national ranking on Friday and again today.
Team Friday Rank Monday Rank
UNC .9507 7 .9291 10
Duke .9336 9 .9322 9
Virg .8777 26 .8836 26
VaT .8308 40 .8099 50
FSU .8291 41 .8800 29
Miami .7766 65 .7768 65
NCSU .7597 70 .8096 51
Clem .7029 100 .7160 89
GaT .6893 103 .6639 110
Mary .5193 159 .5338 157
Wake .5084 161 .4233 202
BC .2794 262 .3030 250
What jumps out at you? Obviously, FSU's jump is huge, more than .0500 points is a big move in Pom's rankings and it took them from a bubble team (#41) to being someone that should be a fairly obvious tournament team at #29. NC State had a similar, though not quite as pronounced, kind of move with their blowout win, gaining .0400 points. Carolina slipped but the huge move was Wake, tumbling .0750 points and falling out of the top 200 teams.
As expected, Duke did not move much. Interesting to note that Clemson improved a fair bit in his rankings after losing to Duke, though I suspect a fair bit of that may be Pom's system taking new views of Clemson's earlier opponents. We see evidence of this in Virginia, which gained .0060 points despite not even playing a game.
Also worth noting, Carolina's Defensive efficiency ranking fell from #6 to #13 while FSU's offense rose from #167 to #130. NC State would be a terror if they could figure out how to play D. Their Offensive efficiency rating is all the way up to #24 (was #30) but their D is #119 (it had been #160 before torching Wake).
-Jason "Just thought ya'll might find it interesting" Evans