Mason’s Surprising Free Throw Stat

[rthomas]

Hey DBR,
It a good thing you are not statisticians. Keep your day jobs.

First, you can't simply throw out a game's stats because they are a 'wretched' 2/11 against Washington.

And second, if you believe that home and away averages are different, you could actually take the time to test for that.

Third, if the stat is real, both 30% (home) and 50% (away) are pretty bad.

But, 4-4 at Clemson could be the beginning of a trend.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

^ I think they were pointing out a curiosity. Maybe someone with the requisite skill set SHOULD do the analysis instead of being hypercritical about an observation... :rolleyes:

[OZZIE4DUKE]

But, 4-4 at Clemson could be the beginning of a trend.
Someone (dd?) mentioned to me that Mason had a streak of 5-5 going before his performance on Thursday night in Cameron. We'd hoped that that was going to be a trend too. Maybe this time! :cool:

[moonpie23]

the tide CAN change sometimes in these situations......maybe not like he's gonna go reddick on us, but maybe a bit of confidence can help when he misses a few KNOWING he can make them...

here's hoping....


i will do my lucky double feet crossed hands up and breath held to help him out...

[tbyers11]

Someone (dd?) mentioned to me that Mason had a streak of 5-5 going before his performance on Thursday night in Cameron. We'd hoped that that was going to be a trend too. Maybe this time! :cool:

Yes, Mason was 2-2 @ Temple and 3-3 @ GT. If you throw in the 4-4 at Clemson that's 9-9 (100%) on the road in the last 3 games. 2-10 against UVa in Cameron is 20%. Maybe that is the home/road split DBR was thinking of ;)

[Ichabod Drain]

the tide CAN change sometimes in these situations......maybe not like he's gonna go reddick on us, but maybe a bit of confidence can help when he misses a few KNOWING he can make them...

here's hoping....


i will do my lucky double feet crossed hands up and breath held to help him out...

It's Redick, not reddick, I don't usualy care but I feel the man should at least get his name spelled correctly around here.

[devildeac]

Someone (dd?) mentioned to me that Mason had a streak of 5-5 going before his performance on Thursday night in Cameron. We'd hoped that that was going to be a trend too. Maybe this time! :cool:

It was indeed me, oh wise and optimistic one ;>)) . He was 2/2 at Temple and 3/3 at GT.

[Lid]

^ I think they were pointing out a curiosity. Maybe someone with the requisite skill set SHOULD do the analysis instead of being hypercritical about an observation... :rolleyes:

Maybe no one has posted the analysis the analysis because negative results are rarely publishable in a peer-reviewed journal. :)

If you test the null hypothesis that Mason's FT % is the same at home and away vs. the alternative hypothesis that the % is greater away*, the p-value is 0.074 (using Fisher's exact test). This means that if the null is true, and his FT shooting is not better away from Durham, there is ~ a 7% chance of seeing the observed data or something more extreme (i.e. an even greater difference between away and home %). The magic number of analysis supersitition is p<0.05. So, you might say this was suggestive, but you also might get slapped down by a reviewer for overstating the results.

* Truthfully, this is probably not appropriate, because before observing any data, you would probably think he's more likely to shoot better on familiar rims in Cameron. A two-sided test would be safest a priori, and that p-value is 0.138. Oh well.

[Seattledukie]

My son pointed out that he nearly always hits his "and-1" free throws as well.

[Kedsy]

My son pointed out that he nearly always hits his "and-1" free throws as well.

I remember him missing plenty of and-ones. Too lazy to go over each and every one to compare the percentage to his overall percentage, though.

[sagegrouse]

Hey DBR,
It a good thing you are not statisticians. Keep your day jobs.

First, you can't simply throw out a game's stats because they are a 'wretched' 2/11 against Washington.

And second, if you believe that home and away averages are different, you could actually take the time to test for that.

Third, if the stat is real, both 30% (home) and 50% (away) are pretty bad.

But, 4-4 at Clemson could be the beginning of a trend.

A quick look at the underlying stats reveals the following: Home percentage 31%; Road percentage 48%. The =/- (std. deviation) for a sample of about size 50 appears to be in the range of 6-7%. Therefore, there are nearly three std. deviations between 48% and 31%, and the differences may be statistically significant.

I have a zillion reservations, however: the need for more observations, the likely inaccuracy of my calculations, and the possible lack of statistical independence of the each free throw. The latter means, essentially, that the probability of making a FT is not independent of the previous result. And given that <50% FT shooter Mason has had several games where he made all of his FTs it seems likely to be a problem. Which basically means you need more FT attempts to make a conclusion.

sage the stat guy

[Lid]

The latter means, essentially, that the probability of making a FT is not independent of the previous result.

Oh, good point. I should redo my above analysis using GEE instead.

[Highlander]

I seem to recall the Crazies giving someone (JJ Redick maybe?) some polite background noise during his free throws - maybe just applause with no cheering - because he said it was better than a silent gym at least for him. Mabye someone should ask Mason or Coach K if they think he'd benefit from more background noise for his FT's instead of silence. Before I went gung ho with this, however, I'd make sure Mason or K was on board.

At any rate, the noise could be part of the reason he shoots better on the road than at home (if that claim is even accurate per the statistics at hand).

[Dev11]

I seem to recall the Crazies giving someone (JJ Redick maybe?) some polite background noise during his free throws

Demarcus Nelson, during his senior season. I can't recall when it started, but he had one really bad half where he probably missed all of them, and then the Crazies started cheering a little just to make some white noise during his free throws. I've also wondered about doing it for Mason, although of course the Crazies now are a completely different group. I think it will happen eventually.

[ricks68]

A quick look at the underlying stats reveals the following: Home percentage 31%; Road percentage 48%. The =/- (std. deviation) for a sample of about size 50 appears to be in the range of 6-7%. Therefore, there are nearly three std. deviations between 48% and 31%, and the differences may be statistically significant.

I have a zillion reservations, however: the need for more observations, the likely inaccuracy of my calculations, and the possible lack of statistical independence of the each free throw. The latter means, essentially, that the probability of making a FT is not independent of the previous result. And given that <50% FT shooter Mason has had several games where he made all of his FTs it seems likely to be a problem. Which basically means you need more FT attempts to make a conclusion.

sage the stat guy


You guys have been watching waaaaaay too much Big Bang Theory. :p

ricks

[devildeac]

I seem to recall the Crazies giving someone (JJ Redick maybe?) some polite background noise during his free throws - maybe just applause with no cheering - because he said it was better than a silent gym at least for him. Mabye someone should ask Mason or Coach K if they think he'd benefit from more background noise for his FT's instead of silence. Before I went gung ho with this, however, I'd make sure Mason or K was on board.

At any rate, the noise could be part of the reason he shoots better on the road than at home (if that claim is even accurate per the statistics at hand).

This was indeed at JJ's request, IIRC. There was some cheering and/or applause during Mason's recent 2/10 performance and not just when he made one of them. I gathered it was to shake things up a bit and see if we could "help" him by doing something a tad different.

[greybeard]

I saw a very different foul shot this game. It was of one piece--no stopping points (previously there were two); rather, the extension and release flowed from the transmission of force from the ground up. That bad boy should be repeatable and outcomes much more predictable. This might well portend a turning point.

[gep]

I saw a very different foul shot this game. It was of one piece--no stopping points (previously there were two); rather, the extension and release flowed from the transmission of force from the ground up. That bad boy should be repeatable and outcomes much more predictable. This might well portend a turning point.

Also, (I don't recall his prior games) it appeared that all 4 FT's... Mason bent his knees, and freely extended from bent knees through follow-through. Seemed rather "smooth" :)

[Newton_14]

I saw a very different foul shot this game. It was of one piece--no stopping points (previously there were two); rather, the extension and release flowed from the transmission of force from the ground up. That bad boy should be repeatable and outcomes much more predictable. This might well portend a turning point.

FWIW, that's how he shoots all of the time in pre-game warmups. I noticed early on this year that Mason was shooting mid-range jumpers and free throws very fluidly in warmups and making a high percentage. He even made a couple of those mid-range jumpers in the 2nd and 3rd game I believe. Once the in game free throw problems started though, I don't think he has attempted another jumper in a game. It's a shame really. That shot would make him almost impossible to guard as it would open up the drive even more if the defender had to respect his jumper. Maybe the confidence will come back.

[UrinalCake]

There are two big problems with the Crazies going completely silent when our guys are at the line:

1.) It's so eerily quiet that it feels like the shooter is under an enormous magnifying glass with everyone watching him
2.) The handful of fans of the opposing team get to shout whatever they want and will be clearly heard

I propose that we say the word "swish" over and over again, everyone at random times. This will provide the requisite white noise while also channeling positive subliminal messages. And yes, I do realize that none of this makes a lick of difference...

[greybeard]

FWIW, that's how he shoots all of the time in pre-game warmups. I noticed early on this year that Mason was shooting mid-range jumpers and free throws very fluidly in warmups and making a high percentage. He even made a couple of those mid-range jumpers in the 2nd and 3rd game I believe. Once the in game free throw problems started though, I don't think he has attempted another jumper in a game. It's a shame really. That shot would make him almost impossible to guard as it would open up the drive even more if the defender had to respect his jumper. Maybe the confidence will come back.

Interesting. A mid range shot and being more than willing to take it if given space would indeed go a long way. Like anything else, the potency of a mid-range-drive-either-way game starts involving nuasanced skills, learning what is "good" in terms of forcing defender choice, chosing which way you want to go and setting that up, developing diversity of set ups for the triple threat, etc. I once asked a dotor friend of mine who also happened to be an exceptional photographer whose work has drawn some critical acclaim, how good a photographeer he'd say he was. David answered something to the effect that there are lots of photographers we can call 75 ercent proficient. Each increment after that comes in fractions and slowly. I should think that Mason does not come to this like a babe in the woods, and knows a fair amount the mid range game built around a makeable shot then he has shown. But I also think that there will be parts of the game that he will have to refine and others he will have to develop. One, I should think would be a pull up jump shot which, when driving to the outside, should be a bank shot. He does a nice job varying pace on his hook shot moves, going slow and then exploding, but the mid range takes some slowing down, which will either draw a help defender charging away from protecting the rim, opening up a possible redirected attack at the rim or call for a jump shot with or without an evasive move or fake. Avoiding charges, chosing the side where the help, if at all, is a beatable obstacle as to the size where it isn't, and attacking off the dribble. Making the guy really guard the shot also requires diversity in bringing it up, speed, tempo, path, with different lifts to produce shots to match.

Guys like Scott devote scores of hours, scores, playing make believe situations and practicing to defeat them, imagining how one move by him will be paried, how various ways to get a guy leaning or rising can be accomplished, how important it can be to have one in the bag that has Vitale out of his seat saying how spectacular that one was when Scott had been there hundreds of times and in his mind had to outmaneuver all sorts of defenders, and then make that shot for real at the end. The shot becomes relatively ordinary for Scott, and can leave a defender deflated, really thinking that this guy can beat me in ways I can't imagine. Those incremental improvments will take time. At a minimum, however, pull up jumpers either way you go from different spots, some shot leaning, some after an up and under, some perhaps after a pump and falling away, should be in his arsenal, as is the famous phrase playing under control. Playing under control is gaining advantage on the first step, cutting the angle to the basket, and slowing down until one knows it is safe to explode, or it can mean dribbling to a spot for a 75-80 percent bank shot from 7-11 feet, and making the defense to commit to stopping that. Like I said, who knows how much of these type of skills Mason has taken it, played with as Scott has albeit perhaps less intensely, and thus how "unstoppable" Mason becomes.

Whereever he finds himself, I have to think, as you aptly point out, that his game will be greatly enriched; if nothing else, quick flashes to the middle and upper part of the lane, or to the foul line, will become very dangerous plays that Duke defenses will have to guard against. That creates a whole new world of opportunity for everyone.

Two other points. One, the jump shot, unlike a foul shot, should have a point of hesitation, stop, where the force can nevertheless be transferred to extension and release. That point comes ideally as the player is reaching the height of a normal elevation. He begins to lift his arms and the ball the few maybe six inches to the release point, the extension begins and is annimated when the body slows down and the arm does not and then the body stops, dreating force through the arm on the different vector the shooter creates.

Second, Kelly shouold have shot the mid range jumper he had from about 4 or five feet to the right of the lane and under the foul line off the backboard. That backboard shot requires far less touch--will go in even when the shot has a fair amount of extra speed on it. Much better odds off the boards from there. I liked the catches inside the three line and, especially with Kelly, I'd like to see more. When Kelly spins off the back to the basket dribble into a shot from the baseline, he should stab his left foot close to his right, making the turn much faster but with less centrifical force, and stabbling the left ball of the foot next to the right, immediately elevate with his right shoulder pointing square in the middle of the defender's breast bone which is the path that the ball should take in coming up to shooting. He will outquick most all defenders whom he will have drawn close with his slow tempo on the bounce, and how does a defender use either hand to impede such a shot? His legs would have been under him and he'd have a much higher percentage shot. He had two shots in the second half along the right baseline, creating centrificle force that made judging the shot a crap shoot. His moves under the basket are great; I should think that using the backboard with different spins off of different shots, delivered in a variety of ways would be money. Something to play wih in the off season perhaps.

[Saratoga2]

FWIW, that's how he shoots all of the time in pre-game warmups. I noticed early on this year that Mason was shooting mid-range jumpers and free throws very fluidly in warmups and making a high percentage. He even made a couple of those mid-range jumpers in the 2nd and 3rd game I believe. Once the in game free throw problems started though, I don't think he has attempted another jumper in a game. It's a shame really. That shot would make him almost impossible to guard as it would open up the drive even more if the defender had to respect his jumper. Maybe the confidence will come back.

I wonder why he would revert to the hesitation free throw form in the game if he is fluid in the pregame? Anyways, it is good news that he seemed to shoot better against Clemson. Time will tell, but if he can shoot even 70%, it would be a boon for the team.

In my view, the Clemson game marked several hopeful signs for the team:

1. Mason's free throw shooting
2. Quinn's continued good play
3. Miles continued solid rebounding and defensive play, plus a little offensive and not as many turnovers
4. Andre's return from the disappearing list. Excellent game following a pretty good game.

Unfortunately there were also not so hopeful signs:

1. Austin's difficulty with the ACC defenses
2. Struggle to hold leads and build on them in the later stages of games

I think the hopeful outweigh the not so hopeful in that I expect the good performances to continue, while I expect Austin to figure out how to be more effective.

[Kedsy]

Time will tell, but if he can shoot even 70%, it would be a boon for the team.

If he shoots 60% it would be a boon for the team. Frankly, even 50%. Mason's form was better against Clemson, but he still held the ball on the back of his palm and then just straightened his arm and flicked his wrist. I suspect 70% is a bit much to realistically hope for, but I'm holding out for 55% to 60%.

[rsvman]

If he shoots 60% it would be a boon for the team. Frankly, even 50%. Mason's form was better against Clemson, but he still held the ball on the back of his palm and then just straightened his arm and flicked his wrist. I suspect 70% is a bit much to realistically hope for, but I'm holding out for 55% to 60%.

+1.

He has to stop holding the ball in his palm if he wants to become a better free-throw shooter.

FWIW, anecdotally I noticed a tendency for him to shoot free throws well for a game or two during last year's season, too. Everytime you get you hopes up, he regresses to the mean.