Pomeroy Odds to win the ACC (Regular Season)

[loran16]

Ken Pomeroy has posted on his (free) blog the results of 1000 simulations of the ACC Regular Season:
North Carolina 5941
Duke 2691
Virginia 682
Florida St. 258
Virginia Tech 248
N.C. State 72
Georgia Tech 51
Miami FL 50
Clemson 7

The numbers stand for the amount of times out of a thousand simulations that each team won the ACC. UNC is the big favorite (59% chance of winning the ACC) with Duke having basically less than half the chance of winning the conference (26.9%). UVA, FSU, and even VT have clear non-zero odds of winning the conference by this analysis.

(and before you ask, if a team isn't listed, it won 0 of the 1000 simulations. So Boston College, Wake Forest, and Maryland are not gonna surprise anyone).

[PackMan97]

I'm surprised that NC State is that low. Given that we play the easiest ACC schedule (by far) it's not that far fetched.

I'd give it at least a 1.4% chance, not a 0.72%.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm surprised that NC State is that low. Given that we play the easiest ACC schedule (by far) it's not that far fetched.

I'd give it at least a 1.4% chance, not a 0.72%.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA


(no relation intended to the poster)

[cspan37421]

I think you mean 10,000 simulations. Or there's something about Pomeroy's methods I do not understand.

[Edouble]

I think you mean 10,000 simulations. Or there's something about Pomeroy's methods I do not understand.

Whether it's 1,000 or 10,000, Clemson still takes the regular season 7 times.

[CDu]

Whether it's 1,000 or 10,000, Clemson still takes the regular season 7 times.

It's out of 10,000. And 7 is a pretty small percentage of 10,000 simulations. It suggests that Clemson winning would be a pretty extreme outlier.

[devildeac]

It's out of 10,000. And 7 is a pretty small percentage of 10,000 simulations. It suggests that Clemson winning would be a pretty extreme outlier.

That's approaching the odds of them (ever) winning in chappaheeya.

[chrishoke]

So you are saying there's a chance. :)

[jimsumner]

I'm still trying for figure out how Georgia Tech comes in at seventh. Chris Bosh coming back in disguise?

[loran16]

I think you mean 10,000 simulations. Or there's something about Pomeroy's methods I do not understand.

Yes, out of 10,000, my bad.

@Jim, GTech is ranked only 81st in Pomeroy (8th in the conference) so it's not like that result is THAT Improbable (and i think they have an easier schedule than Miami - Duke and Carolina AND Virginia only once, with the Duke and UVA games being AT GT.)

[Edouble]

It's out of 10,000. And 7 is a pretty small percentage of 10,000 simulations. It suggests that Clemson winning would be a pretty extreme outlier.

Oh1 Is that how work.?

[OldPhiKap]

Yes, out of 10,000, my bad.

@Jim, GTech is ranked only 81st in Pomeroy (8th in the conference) so it's not like that result is THAT Improbable (and i think they have an easier schedule than Miami - Duke and Carolina AND Virginia only once, with the Duke and UVA games being AT GT.)

Just fyi -- The Thriller Dome is being remodelled, and so "@ Tech" this year means either at Phillips Arena (which will be a big empty) or at Gwinnett Center (a long way from campus). GT had terrible attendance last year as well, although a new coach will hopefully change that.

[jimsumner]

Yes, out of 10,000, my bad.

@Jim, GTech is ranked only 81st in Pomeroy (8th in the conference) so it's not like that result is THAT Improbable (and i think they have an easier schedule than Miami - Duke and Carolina AND Virginia only once, with the Duke and UVA games being AT GT.)

That Gwinnett home-court advantage did help Tech stay close to Mercer.

[OldPhiKap]

That Gwinnett home-court advantage did help Tech stay close to Mercer.

I took my kids to see The Wiggles there a few years ago. Bet it drew a better crowd than ANY GT game will this year.

Hot Potato, indeed.

[devildeac]

I'm still trying for figure out how Georgia Tech comes in at seventh. Chris Bosh coming back in disguise?

No, and Hewitt is not coming back either:rolleyes:;).

[turnandburn55]

So Carolina wins the ACC more than twice as often as us??? Really? Not sure the gap is that big... though I'd certainly like their players to believe it:cool:

[-bdbd]

So Carolina wins the ACC more than twice as often as us??? Really? Not sure the gap is that big... though I'd certainly like their players to believe it:cool:

In a sense it is kinda sad that there's 85+% odds of NC@CH or Duke winning it all. (Actually, just of winning this ficticious "Regular Season crown" - question is who will ultimately win the ACCT, and hence the ACC's automatic birth in the NCAA's, ergo the ACC Championship... But I digress.)

I would think the race between Duke and NC@CH would be closer than that - 59% and 27%. I'd have guesstimated maybe 50% and 30%, or even ~45-33%. But other than that quibble, I think they get the ranking order of the rest of the ACC relatively close to correct. :confused: