Bracketology Jan 2012

[CameronBornAndBred]

This thread might as well be titled "the way too early edition", but it's fun to follow through the season as the pundits constantly change their mind about who is going where. Joe Lunardi has his first bracket out, and he sends us to Greensboro (in East) with a one and the heels to Greensboro (in South) with a two.
Virginia and Florida State fill out the ACC's contributions, while Stanford and Harvard are welcomed to the dance with a six and seven seed.
The heels are put up against Davidson, which could actually be a great first round game.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[1 24 90]

This thread might as well be titled "the way too early edition", but it's fun to follow through the season as the pundits constantly change their mind about who is going where. Joe Lunardi has his first bracket out, and he sends us to Greensboro (in East) with a one and the heels to Greensboro (in South) with a two.
Virginia and Florida State fill out the ACC's contributions, while Stanford and Harvard are welcomed to the dance with a six and seven seed.
The heels are put up against Davidson, which could actually be a great first round game.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Isn't Duke #1 in the dreaded West Region?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Isn't Duke #1 in the dreaded West Region?
Oh yeah...my bad. I battle with occasional illiteracy.

[slower]

Obviously, a bit premature, but interesting, nonetheless.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_glockner/12/27/Bracket.Watch/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t13_a2

[WakeDevil]

1 2 9 and 10. What a pitiful mess this league is.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Sports Illustrated's Andy Glockner posts his first projections. He also gives Duke a one and the heels a two. It's interesting to me that after being adorned with preseason #1 rankings by so many, that now two of the prominent pundits have pegged unc with a 2 seed in March. Of course there is a whole lot of season left, but I wonder what has changed their mind so much to put us ahead of the baby blues.


Duke, Kentucky, Syracuse and Ohio State grab No. 1 seeds in Bracket Watch





http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_glockner/12/27/Bracket.Watch/index.html?xid=cnnbin

[SilkyJ]

Obviously, a bit premature, but interesting, nonetheless.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_glockner/12/27/Bracket.Watch/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t13_a2

Huh? How do they figure we get the 1 seed in the east and Cuse goes out West? They're undefeated and ranked #1 right now. What am I missing?

[jv001]

Sports Illustrated's Andy Glockner posts his first projections. He also gives Duke a one and the heels a two. It's interesting to me that after being adorned with preseason #1 rankings by so many, that now two of the prominent pundits have pegged unc with a 2 seed in March. Of course there is a whole lot of season left, but I wonder what has changed their mind so much to put us ahead of the baby blues.


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_glockner/12/27/Bracket.Watch/index.html?xid=cnnbin

The prominent pundits probably know ole roy does not try to win the ACC tournament. You know that darn old tournament that the heels seem to fold in. That's an annual loss going into the NCAAs. GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

Huh? How do they figure we get the 1 seed in the east and Cuse goes out West? They're undefeated and ranked #1 right now. What am I missing?

Perhaps they don't think it will stay that way?

[OldPhiKap]

The prominent pundits probably know ole roy does not try to win the ACC tournament. You know that darn old tournament that the heels seem to fold in. That's an annual loss going into the NCAAs. GoDuke!

Seth Greenberg's gonna have to work to get on the bubble.

[SilkyJ]

Perhaps they don't think it will stay that way?

I guess...but I'm not sure why they'd think we'd end up as the #1 or 2 overall seed. I don't think many people on this board think that!

Maybe they're looking at a weak ACC and think we'll only lose 2 or 3 more games. Still I think this its ridiculous to put on as the #1 or 2 overall. We are probably somewhere in the #4-6 range right now in terms of the S-curve

[Newton_14]

I guess...but I'm not sure why they'd think we'd end up as the #1 or 2 overall seed. I don't think many people on this board think that!

Maybe they're looking at a weak ACC and think we'll only lose 2 or 3 more games. Still I think this its ridiculous to put on as the #1 or 2 overall. We are probably somewhere in the #4-6 range right now in terms of the S-curve

Have to disagree with you on this one Silky. To me, having seen all of the top teams play at least once, I would have to say Duke is at worst a 3 Seed and at best a 1, with a 2 being the most likely outcome.

This team has weaknesses to overcome, but it is still a darn good basketball team, with a high ceiling. I do believe Duke will feast on a weak ACC and finish the Regular Season with no more than 5 losses total.

I guess it is possible things could turn south and they end up as a 4 seed, but barring injury to key players, there is just no way Duke ends up being a 5 or 6 seed.

Now, if injuries pile up, we would have to re-evaluate. But this is just how I see it as of now.

[Kedsy]

Have to disagree with you on this one Silky. To me, having seen all of the top teams play at least once, I would have to say Duke is at worst a 3 Seed and at best a 1, with a 2 being the most likely outcome.

This team has weaknesses to overcome, but it is still a darn good basketball team, with a high ceiling. I do believe Duke will feast on a weak ACC and finish the Regular Season with no more than 5 losses total.

I guess it is possible things could turn south and they end up as a 4 seed, but barring injury to key players, there is just no way Duke ends up being a 5 or 6 seed.

Now, if injuries pile up, we would have to re-evaluate. But this is just how I see it as of now.

I could be wrong, but I thought SilkyJ meant #4 to #6 overall on the s-curve (i.e., a #1 or #2 seed), and not a #4 to #6 seed.

In my opinion, things would have to go unexpectedly sour for us to drop even as far as a #3 seed, although I suppose it could happen if our defense doesn't shore up. I'd be shocked if we dropped as low as a #4 seed.

[NSDukeFan]

Have to disagree with you on this one Silky. To me, having seen all of the top teams play at least once, I would have to say Duke is at worst a 3 Seed and at best a 1, with a 2 being the most likely outcome.

This team has weaknesses to overcome, but it is still a darn good basketball team, with a high ceiling. I do believe Duke will feast on a weak ACC and finish the Regular Season with no more than 5 losses total.

I guess it is possible things could turn south and they end up as a 4 seed, but barring injury to key players, there is just no way Duke ends up being a 5 or 6 seed.

Now, if injuries pile up, we would have to re-evaluate. But this is just how I see it as of now.

I understood SilkyJ's post as saying that Duke should be a #1 or #2 seed in the #4 to #6 position overall on the S curve but not #1 or #2 overall of the #1 seeds. I agree, though I think Duke could be ranked anywhere as a #2 seed at this point.

[Newton_14]

I could be wrong, but I thought SilkyJ meant #4 to #6 overall on the s-curve (i.e., a #1 or #2 seed), and not a #4 to #6 seed.

In my opinion, things would have to go unexpectedly sour for us to drop even as far as a #3 seed, although I suppose it could happen if our defense doesn't shore up. I'd be shocked if we dropped as low as a #4 seed.


I understood SilkyJ's post as saying that Duke should be a #1 or #2 seed in the #4 to #6 position overall on the S curve but not #1 or #2 overall of the #1 seeds. I agree, though I think Duke could be ranked anywhere as a #2 seed at this point.

Aargh! Totally blew that one guys. Thanks for straightening me out. A total misread.

[hurleyfor3]

Quick question: are we the only fanbase that obsesses over other people's pretend brackets while it's still December?

[Bob Green]

Quick question: are we the only fanbase that obsesses over other people's pretend brackets while it's still December?

Nope.

[SilkyJ]

Aargh! Totally blew that one guys. Thanks for straightening me out. A total misread.

No worries, looks like Kedsy and NS set you straight :)

[devildeac]

Quick question: are we the only fanbase that obsesses over other people's pretend brackets while it's still December?

Nah, I heard the unc faithful already have their 2012 NC t-shirts printed :rolleyes::o.

[Indoor66]

Nah, I heard the unc faithful already have their 2012 NC t-shirts printed :rolleyes::o.

That is on the front and Helms Bakery is on the back.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Quick question: are we the only fanbase that obsesses over other people's pretend brackets while it's still December?
Who's obsessing? We're in the middle of a long break between games and it's a fun distraction. Never hurts to play games of make believe.

[Devilsfan]

I follow the ACC hierarchy by reading Mark Titus' take on unc and Duke as part of his analysis of the nations top 10. Quite a journalist for graduating from tOSU. He writes for Grantland. Check him out. He has the nailed the maturation of Austin. He writes that he has started pulling for Austin as he has started letting "his game speak for itself". He also has a hilarious column on Dickie V and his tangents when he challenges the reader to guess how Vitale winds up talking about Andrew Luck. College can be beneficial if you apply yourself in the classroom like Mark must have done.

[dynastydefender]

Gents, UK as a number 1 seed. That much is clear in January.

[burnspbesq]

Lunardi's most recent bracket is pretty bizarre. He has Penn winning the Ivy and Harvard getting an at-large bid. He must have some Penn team from a parallel universe in mind, because the Penn team we hosted at Cameron isn't going to beat Harvard.

He is also giving us a potential second-round game against Stanford.

[Kedsy]

Lunardi's most recent bracket is pretty bizarre. He has Penn winning the Ivy and Harvard getting an at-large bid. He must have some Penn team from a parallel universe in mind, because the Penn team we hosted at Cameron isn't going to beat Harvard.

He always puts the current conference leader in as the automatic rep. He doesn't want to substitute his judgement for the conference standings. In this case, Penn is 2-0 and Harvard is 1-0, so that's why he picked it that way. Doesn't mean he thinks Penn will beat Harvard.

[MCFinARL]

He always puts the current conference leader in as the automatic rep. He doesn't want to substitute his judgement for the conference standings. In this case, Penn is 2-0 and Harvard is 1-0, so that's why he picked it that way. Doesn't mean he thinks Penn will beat Harvard.

I guess that is logical. But given that the Ivy League has no tournament, it seems to assume that the committee would take two Ivies if, say, Harvard lost more league games than Penn but had a better out-of-conference record. I'm not sure how likely that is; if Harvard messes up in league play I suspect that will offset the good resume they have put together so far. Hopefully that won't happen in any event.

[Kedsy]

I guess that is logical. But given that the Ivy League has no tournament, it seems to assume that the committee would take two Ivies if, say, Harvard lost more league games than Penn but had a better out-of-conference record. I'm not sure how likely that is; if Harvard messes up in league play I suspect that will offset the good resume they have put together so far. Hopefully that won't happen in any event.

Apparently, Lunardi thinks Harvard's resume is good enough to get in at-large. I tend to agree. That would be something, wouldn't it? Two Ivy's in the NCAAT?

[77devil]

Lunardi's most recent bracket is pretty bizarre. He has Penn winning the Ivy and Harvard getting an at-large bid. He must have some Penn team from a parallel universe in mind, because the Penn team we hosted at Cameron isn't going to beat Harvard.

He is also giving us a potential second-round game against Stanford.


He always puts the current conference leader in as the automatic rep. He doesn't want to substitute his judgement for the conference standings. In this case, Penn is 2-0 and Harvard is 1-0, so that's why he picked it that way. Doesn't mean he thinks Penn will beat Harvard.

Form over substance-another example of why bracketology at this time of the season is pointless. But Lunardi, et al., need to keep feeding ESPN.com.

[Jderf]

He always puts the current conference leader in as the automatic rep. He doesn't want to substitute his judgement for the conference standings. In this case, Penn is 2-0 and Harvard is 1-0, so that's why he picked it that way. Doesn't mean he thinks Penn will beat Harvard.


Form over substance-another example of why bracketology at this time of the season is pointless. But Lunardi, et al., need to keep feeding ESPN.com.

So basically, what I am hearing is that a large part of Lunardi's "contribution" is that he basically looks up all the current conference leaders for us. A collossal effort, I'm sure. On one side, I understand; Lunardi's bracketology is not supposed to make predictions, but instead represent what would happen if the selection committee convened today. But on the other side, this means that all he really does is a quick copy-and-paste job. Maybe he has to make a couple judgment calls to determine the last few teams in, but really, that's all. How much effort would it actually require to just take a quick glance at the Ivy League, realize that Princeton isn't going to hold the top spot for the entire season, and then just reflect that in your Bracketology? Come on, Joe! Put some work into it! I mean, after all, this is your job.

[bob blue devil]

Apparently, Lunardi thinks Harvard's resume is good enough to get in at-large. I tend to agree. That would be something, wouldn't it? Two Ivy's in the NCAAT?

at this point that's what he is implying, but the only way harvard doesn't win the ivy is if they lose 2 league games (i.e. 15-2 league record or worse). if that's the case, the argument would be interesting, as their only wins against at-large tourney caliber teams are against bubblicious florida st & st. joes (correct me if i'm missing someone) early in the season, while they'd have losses against uconn (fine), fordham (oops) and 2 in the ivy later in the season (note that late season performance is emphasized more).

i fully expect this debate to be moot - crimson win the ivy and make some noise in the dance!

[feldspar]

Snarf.....Jerry Palm has UNC down to a #3 seed in his latest projections.

Link (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology)

LOTS of basketball still to be played, so this doesn't mean anything, but it's so fun to see the hand-wringing coming out of Chappa Heeya.

[MCFinARL]

Apparently, Lunardi thinks Harvard's resume is good enough to get in at-large. I tend to agree. That would be something, wouldn't it? Two Ivy's in the NCAAT?


at this point that's what he is implying, but the only way harvard doesn't win the ivy is if they lose 2 league games (i.e. 15-2 league record or worse). if that's the case, the argument would be interesting, as their only wins against at-large tourney caliber teams are against bubblicious florida st & st. joes (correct me if i'm missing someone) early in the season, while they'd have losses against uconn (fine), fordham (oops) and 2 in the ivy later in the season (note that late season performance is emphasized more).

i fully expect this debate to be moot - crimson win the ivy and make some noise in the dance!

I hope you are both right. It seems the recent resurgence of Fla. St., assuming it continues (but not against Duke, we hope), could make a difference here if Harvard does need to count on an at-large spot. And I would love to see two Ivy's in the tournament--has that ever happened?

[MCFinARL]

I hope you are both right. It seems the recent resurgence of Fla. St., assuming it continues (but not against Duke, we hope), could make a difference here if Harvard does need to count on an at-large spot. And I would love to see two Ivy's in the tournament--has that ever happened?

Answering my own question, it looks like not--since last year's tournament appearance was the 54th for an Ivy team since the league's official creation in 1956-57, 54 years before. http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/mbkb/2010-11/releases/NCAA_Mens_Basketball_Tournament_Central

[CameronBornAndBred]

Answering my own question, it looks like not--since last year's tournament appearance was the 54th for an Ivy team since the league's official creation in 1956-57, 54 years before. http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/mbkb/2010-11/releases/NCAA_Mens_Basketball_Tournament_Central
I believe last year Harvard was given serious consideration.

[Olympic Fan]

I believe last year Harvard was given serious consideration.

Last year Harvard tied for the conference championship. Officially, they are co-champs ... the first time Harvard has won an Ivy championship.

They had a one-game playoff with Princeton to determine the league's automatic NCAA qualifier. But losing it didn't take away their co-championship (the Ivy, unlike the ACC, determines its official champion in the regular season). Despite having never won the Ivy before, Harvard HAS had an NCAA appearance. I believe it was back in 1944, before the Ivy was formed.

I worry about Harvard's position. Lunardi has them in as an at-large, but that's as of today -- while Harvard is No. 50 in the RPI, which is right on the borderline. The problem is that their RPI is going to fall as they play the likes of Dartmouth (329 RPI), Brown (321) and Cornell (240). If they lose two or three in the league (what it would take to not win the Ivy), their RPI could plummet.

Tommy has them in good shape to win at at large bid. If they can sweep or nearly sweep the Ivy, they could be as much as a 13 or 14 seed. But if they come in behind Yale, Penn or Princeton (the three best contenders), it's going to be tough. They wil be very much on the dreaded bubble, even with all their early season success.

[Kedsy]

Answering my own question, it looks like not--since last year's tournament appearance was the 54th for an Ivy team since the league's official creation in 1956-57, 54 years before. http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/mbkb/2010-11/releases/NCAA_Mens_Basketball_Tournament_Central

Well, no conference had two teams in the NCAAT until 1975, and by then the Ivy League, with no scholarships, had fallen behind the larger conferences.

[Kedsy]

Tommy has them in good shape to win at at large bid. If they can sweep or nearly sweep the Ivy, they could be as much as a 13 or 14 seed. But if they come in behind Yale, Penn or Princeton (the three best contenders), it's going to be tough. They wil be very much on the dreaded bubble, even with all their early season success.

Well, they could lose one game (to, e.g., Penn or Yale), beat that same team in the rematch, and then lose in a playoff like last year. You'd have to think they'd be in decent position for an at-large bid under those circumstances, right?

[Duvall]

Well, they could lose one game (to, e.g., Penn or Yale), beat that same team in the rematch, and then lose in a playoff like last year. You'd have to think they'd be in decent position for an at-large bid under those circumstances, right?

rpiforecast.com predicts (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Harvard.html) that finishing with a 25-4 (12-2) record would leave Harvard with an RPI around 47, so you would have to think that the 26-4 (12-2) scenario would be even better. (Extra game against a decent opponent, too.) I think that would give Harvard a good chance of making the field.

[sagegrouse]

Well, they could lose one game (to, e.g., Penn or Yale), beat that same team in the rematch, and then lose in a playoff like last year. You'd have to think they'd be in decent position for an at-large bid under those circumstances, right?


rpiforecast.com predicts (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Harvard.html) that finishing with a 25-4 (12-2) record would leave Harvard with an RPI around 47, so you would have to think that the 26-4 (12-2) scenario would be even better. (Extra game against a decent opponent, too.) I think that would give Harvard a good chance of making the field.

These are hypotheticals -- Hey! It's a fans' board on the internet. UPenn (9-9) and Princeton (10-8) don't look like the strongest contenders int eh Ivy League. It seems to be Yale at 15-4. I'd be astounded if Harvard were not the champs. And if they are not, I doubt that the TSC wastes an at-large selection on an Ivy League team (but then you know what I think of the efforts of the TSC).

sagegrouse

[Olympic Fan]

These are hypotheticals -- Hey! It's a fans' board on the internet. UPenn (9-9) and Princeton (10-8) don't look like the strongest contenders int eh Ivy League. It seems to be Yale at 15-4. I'd be astounded if Harvard were not the champs. And if they are not, I doubt that the TSC wastes an at-large selection on an Ivy League team (but then you know what I think of the efforts of the TSC).

sagegrouse

I wouldn't be too carried away by Yale's record. Yeah, they have a better record than Princeton or Penn, but against a MUCH weaker schedule. They lost by double figures to Seton Hall and Florida and by one to Wake. The closest thing to a decent win they have is a 3-point victory over Rhode Island. Their other 14 wins include two non-Division 1 and the likes of Bryant, Sacred Heart, Central Connecticut State, Army, Vermont ...

Penn on the other hand is 9-9, but when you look at their shedule -- they lost at Temple in overtime, at Pitt (back in November when Pitt was killing everybody), at Villanova, at UCLA by four in a game decided in the final seconds (I know UCLA is down, but they have been playing much better since kicking Nelson off the team), at Davidson and at Duke. Princeton at 10-8 is the most erratic of the bunch -- they have some bad losses, but also have wins at Rutgers and at Florida State.

My point is that while Harvard has the best Ivy resume at the moment -- and is by far the highest ranked Ivy -- they can't count on marching through the league. Trips to Penn, Princeton and Yale will all be toughies. Penn, which was banged up early in the season (they played Duke without two of their best players) is particularly dangerous.

I think the odds are good that Harvard wins the Ivy and secures an automatic bid. And, without question, they are the only Ivy with even a remote chance of earning at at large bid. I'm just saying that neither outcome is a slam dunk. If Harvard loses enough in the league to finish second, that's going to put their at large bid in jeopardy.

FWIW, Pomeroy lists Princeton as the No. 2 Ivy with Penn at No. 3 and Yale at No. 4.

[Kedsy]

If Harvard loses enough in the league to finish second, that's going to put their at large bid in jeopardy.

Maybe. I was just pointing out that "enough" might be one road loss to a rival and then a loss in a playoff. That's not so many and if their resume is that good (which I think it is) then such a situation shouldn't knock them out.