ACC-Big Ten challenge commentary thread

[JasonEvans]

Let this thread be your place for pre-challenge predictions and comments. Please also vote in the poll of how many wins the ACC will get in the challenge.

Allow me to start with the following:

Pomeroy's rankings do not paint a pretty picture--

ACC vs/at BigTen - % chance ACC wins game
Duke at Ohio State - 22%
UNC at Wisconsin - 46%
FSU at Mich State - 37%
Virginia vs. Michigan - 61%
Va Tech at Minn. - 34%
Miami at Purdue - 21%
Clemson at Iowa - 55%
NC St vs. Indiana - 49%
Ga Tech vs. NWern - 52%
Maryland vs. Illinois - 50%
Wake at Nebraska - 13%
BC vs. Penn State - 39%

So, Pom makes only 2 ACC teams favorites (very small favorites) with one game a 50-50 toss-up. 2 more games are so close (49-51% and 46-54%) that they might be considered toss-ups too. If we consider anything inside of 55-45 a toss-up then we have 5 toss-up games.

The other 7 games all appear to be solidly to the Big Ten's advantage. I know from talking to some folks that the Pom rankings of Clemson, Maryland, and Ga Tech all seem somewhat inflated given those team's results so far, which may make those teams (who are the three biggest favorites for the ACC) all less likely to win.

I guess my point is, that a 10-2 Big Ten trouncing or something like that may not be so unlikely.

-Jason "Ugggh, quite a down year for the conference!" Evans

[CDu]

I'm not sure why Pomeroy lists UNC at Wisconsin. That's a home game for UNC. As such, I'd expect UNC to be the favorites.

I'll say we'll win 4-5. I think 10-2 Big Ten is pretty unlikely, but certainly more possible than 10-2 ACC. I'd be shocked if we won more than 6, and even 6 would surprise me a little.

I'll take UNC at home against Wisconsin, State at home against Indiana, Va Tech at Minnesota, Clemson at Iowa, and what the heck, Duke over OSU in the upset (though I don't think 22% is a reasonable estimate of our chances). Other reasonably winnable games include GT vs NU, Maryland vs Illinois, FSU @ MSU, and UVa vs Michigan. I'd consider those last four to be unlikely wins, but both FSU and UVa could ugly the game up enough to win and GT and Maryland are at least at home against mediocre teams.

One thing to note: Pomeroy seems to be putting a lot of value on home court advantage. I don't think, for example, that UVa is as good as Michigan. But he has UVa as a heavy home favorite. Similarly, he puts Minnosota as a 2:1 favorite over VT even though they're basically similar teams. And he's got OSU as a near 4:1 favorite over us.

[gw67]

Jason,

I agree with you that this may be the year when the Big Ten really hammers the ACC. Ohio State is loaded and Wisconsin is always tough at the top and they have several pretty good teams. The Devils, UNC and the Noles all play road games. I would like them to win more but I figure 4 wins by the ACC may be realistic.

I haven't seen the Terps play but a long-time friend, golf partner and UMd alum has seen them play twice and his early assessment is that this year's team is the weakest in many a year. According to him they don't have a strong point and have some major weaknesses (shooting, passing and defending). Unless Illinois loses their starting lineup to the flu I don't see this as a 50% game.

gw67

[CDu]

Jason,

I agree with you that this may be the year when the Big Ten really hammers the ACC. Ohio State is loaded and Wisconsin is always tough at the top and they have several pretty good teams. The Devils, UNC and the Noles all play road games. I would like them to win more but I figure 4 wins by the ACC may be realistic.

I haven't seen the Terps play but a long-time friend, golf partner and UMd alum has seen them play twice and his early assessment is that this year's team is the weakest in many a year. According to him they don't have a strong point and have some major weaknesses (shooting, passing and defending). Unless Illinois loses their starting lineup to the flu I don't see this as a 50% game.

gw67

UNC doesn't play on the road in the Challenge. They get Wisconsin at home. I believe that's a typo by Pomeroy.

[House G]

Man, what happened to Iowa's program?

[jimsumner]

Man, what happened to Iowa's program?

Don Nelson graduated?

Sorry, couldn't help it. :)

[tbyers11]

UNC doesn't play on the road in the Challenge. They get Wisconsin at home. I believe that's a typo by Pomeroy.

I'm not sure what Jason is looking at but Pomeroy has UNC as a home team. However, his rankings like Wisconsin so much right now that even with the home court factor they favor Wisconsin by a point.

Wisconsin has been blowing out weak teams (and a decent BYU team last night) with some insanely good 3pt shooting (hence their high Pom ranking) but I can't see them winning in Chapel Hill. Their ability to control pace and hit 3's could keep the game close but I think UNC's bigs will be too athletic over the long haul if UNC decides to keep punching the ball down low.

[jamesfrommaiden]

That is ridiculous. I would say Duke has at least a 35 to 40 percent chance if you want to look at it like that. I of course think Duke will win. I always think Duke will win. At least I always give our team a shot regardless of the opponent or venue. 22% is a joke. I wont be surprised at all if UNC loses to the Badgers. Has anyone out there seen Wisconsin play defense?

[jamesfrommaiden]

Man, what happened to Iowa's program?

Have they had a program since the days of BJ Armstrong and Roy Marble?

[JasonEvans]

I just voted and went with 4 wins. Don't ask me which games they will be, but as I look across the slate, I think the ACC has at least a decent chance in about 8 or 9 of the matchups. I figure we win about half of those.

Interesting that the collective fans here seem to be fairly pessimistic too. Only 25% think the ACC will win the challenge, and almost all of them think the ACC win will come by the narrowest of margins, 7-5.

-Jason "for those of you who have not voted... do so quickly! You've got about a day left" Evans

[SilkyJ]

I guess I'm channeling my inner ozzie here, but I think we can get 6 or 7 here. I think we win these games

Duke at Ohio State - 22%
UNC at Wisconsin - 46%
Va Tech at Minn. - 34%
Clemson at Iowa - 55%
NC St vs. Indiana - 49%

That get's us to 5. And we can win 1 or 2 of these:

Ga Tech vs. NWern - 52%
BC vs. Penn State - 39%
FSU at Mich State - 37%
Virginia vs. Michigan - 61%

Tech and BC if for no other reason than they are playing avg competition and FSU and UVA are solid teams as well and could pull an upset.

Maybe 4-5 seems more likely, but I'll stay optimistic and say the ACC pulls this one out, like they have 10 of the last 11 or whatever it is.

[HCheek37]

I like Va Tech on the road against Minnesota without their big man Mbakwe....I think we could have 8 or 9 games decided by 5 points or less but I still went with the Big 10 going 7-5

[ChillinDuke]

I guess I'm channeling my inner ozzie here, but I think we can get 6 or 7 here. I think we win these games

Duke at Ohio State - 22%
UNC at Wisconsin - 46%
Va Tech at Minn. - 34%
Clemson at Iowa - 55%
NC St vs. Indiana - 49%

That get's us to 5. And we can win 1 or 2 of these:

Ga Tech vs. NWern - 52%
BC vs. Penn State - 39%
FSU at Mich State - 37%
Virginia vs. Michigan - 61%

Tech and BC if for no other reason than they are playing avg competition and FSU and UVA are solid teams as well and could pull an upset.

Maybe 4-5 seems more likely, but I'll stay optimistic and say the ACC pulls this one out, like they have 10 of the last 11 or whatever it is.

The additional 1 or 2 will not include the bolded game.

- Chillin

[loran16]

That is ridiculous. I would say Duke has at least a 35 to 40 percent chance if you want to look at it like that. I of course think Duke will win. I always think Duke will win. At least I always give our team a shot regardless of the opponent or venue. 22% is a joke. I wont be surprised at all if UNC loses to the Badgers. Has anyone out there seen Wisconsin play defense?

For the record, the 22% comes from the fact that Ohio State is far better than Duke in every defensive category this year - eFG%, Offensive Rebounds allowed, and especially forcing turnovers and avoiding fouls. They also are debate-ably better on O. And they're AT Home.

Quite seriously, OSU is really really good, and beating them at OSU would be an amazing accomplishment - they're the best team we'll face all year unless UNC gets quite better.

[devildeac]

I'll take unc (yuk) and the guys in stripes at the Dump on the Hump, NCSU at home and 1 upset. Don't know much about UVA but can't see them beating UM, nor can I see f$u winning on the road, especially after their collapse against uCon missing FT down the stretch AND fouling a 3 point attempt up 3 as time was winding down.

[gw67]

Have they had a program since the days of BJ Armstrong and Roy Marble?

The answer is a weak Yes! I believe Alford had 2-3 teams that won over 20 games and Tom Davis had a number of decent teams. They have had several "nice" players over the years but, to my recollection, no All Americans. I believe that Marble's youngster played for them last year as a reserve. I don't recall whether he was an underclassman.

gw67

[Wander]

You have to completely change the way you think of the ACC. The conference used to be defined by two things: the constant powerhouses of Duke and Carolina, and the bottom of the conference being by far the best of any conference. That second one is completely changed, mostly due I think to the recent coaching turnover.

I'll take NC State, one of Duke/UNC, and one of Clemson/Virginia/FSU. Three wins.

[hurleyfor3]

You have to completely change the way you think of the ACC. The conference used to be defined by two things: the constant powerhouses of Duke and Carolina, and the bottom of the conference being by far the best of any conference. That second one is completely changed, mostly due I think to the recent coaching turnover.

I don't think the bottom has gotten worse, but it has gotten bigger. So the middle has thinned out, and the top has the same old two big attractions trying to compensate for all the other weaknesses.

Welcome to the new ACC. The Kim Kardashian of basketball conferences.

[loran16]

I don't think the bottom has gotten worse, but it has gotten bigger. So the middle has thinned out, and the top has the same old two big attractions trying to compensate for all the other weaknesses.

Welcome to the new ACC. The Kim Kardashian of basketball conferences.

Not really at all. The ACC bottom has been the same for what, 8 years now? And until the past two years, it has had zero truly awful teams. Wake & BC kill this conference at the bottom. Just hurt bad. And Maryland this year isn't helping.

[hurleyfor3]

Not really at all. The ACC bottom has been the same for what, 8 years now? And until the past two years, it has had zero truly awful teams. Wake & BC kill this conference at the bottom. Just hurt bad. And Maryland this year isn't helping.

Fair enough, and you can add GIT to the list at the bottom. But I stand by my Kim reference.

[Newton_14]

I don't think the bottom has gotten worse, but it has gotten bigger. So the middle has thinned out, and the top has the same old two big attractions trying to compensate for all the other weaknesses.

Welcome to the new ACC. The Kim Kardashian of basketball conferences.

To add to that, the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th teams have suffered a significant dropoff in quality over the last 4 to 5 years. It may be unfair to lump the 3rd place team in that group given FSU was strong last year, but overall this is where we are hurting. Time was, teams like Maryland, BC, FSU, Wake, and Clemson were consistently top 30-35 type teams or better, and those teams could compete against Duke/UNC and push them no matter where the game was played. Last year, only FSU could do that. The year before, Clemson could too, as could Maryland, and Wake. During those times the bottom as folks have mentioned was strong enough to beat you on their court and scare the heck out of you in the ACC Tourney.

That changed the last couple of years in both groups. With the coaching changes, hopefully the league can bounce back sooner than later. NC State is on the right path, as is FSU. Clemson has good coaching, and just needs recruits. Miami has good coaching now but is hurt in the short term with injuries. Maryland has good coaching but needs healthy bodies and a quick boost in recruiting. Va Tech has been impressive so far this year, but needs to break through and get off the Bubble. UVA has good coaching and seems to be on the way back albeit slowly.

The problem child's right now, to me are BC, Wake, and Ga Tech. I feel like BC and Ga Tech have good coaching, but Wake does not. Ga Tech is a major rebuild, as is BC, but both are doable. How much time is the question.

Of course adding Pitt and Syracuse will be an instant shot in the arm quality wise. We just don't know yet when they will come.

[loran16]

Pomeroy added his odds for the whole challenge in a blog post here: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/your_guide_to_the_2011_big_ten_acc_challenge/

Chances of:
ACC Victory: 13.5%
B10 Victory: 68.9%
Tie: 17.5%

The most likely outcomes are Big Ten 7-5 and Big Ten 8-4. However, Pomeroy notes that: "Even if we give UNC a 70% chance of winning and Virginia Tech a 50% chance of victory, The Big Ten’s win probability only drops to 61%."

Still bad guys.

[subzero02]

I am very surprised that Pomeroy favors UVA over Michigan.

[CDu]

I am very surprised that Pomeroy favors UVA over Michigan.

Pomeroy's ratings are still very much in flux, so some teams are overrated at this point given that there have been so few games between quality opponents. He has UVa and Michigan similarly rated at this point, and UVa gets the home court advantage boost.

I'd expect that if this game was played in late-January Michigan would be favored.

[rsvman]

I saw one half of one game of Maryland basketball this year. If that half was representative (which I hope it wasn't), I'd say Maryland versus the Sunset Old Folks Home would be a toss-up. They looked positively TERRIBLE. Like a rec league team at the YMCA. Seriously bad.

[gw67]

I saw one half of one game of Maryland basketball this year. If that half was representative (which I hope it wasn't), I'd say Maryland versus the Sunset Old Folks Home would be a toss-up. They looked positively TERRIBLE. Like a rec league team at the YMCA. Seriously bad.

As I noted earlier, i have not seen the Terps play this year; however, your observation is consistent with that of a close friend who has seen them play a couple of times. They are a poor shooting team from the field, worse from the line and have a 0.6 A/TO ratio. Turgeon is in the middle of a perfect storm. They lost 3 seniors, their best player and a likely starter from last year's team; two freshmen signees went elsewhere; a late freshmen add on is restricted from playing until late December; their best point guard broke his foot and one of their remaining players (Mosley) has a sore ankle for tonight's game. My friend says that this might be the weakest Maryland team in many a year.

Turgeon comes accross as a good replacement for Williams but I think that he is making a fundamental error in talking up the fatigue side of fielding 7 players and 1-2 walkons and giving the youngsters a built-in excuse. Heck, Cremins played with a short bench for many years at GT with 3-4 players always expected to play the whole game under normal circumstances. Turgeon should do the same and not cry about it.

With the Caps going through a tough period, it has been very difficult reading the Post's sports section (What's left of it) every morning and getting a bellyful of bad news about the locals.

gw67

[Duvall]

You have to completely change the way you think of the ACC. The conference used to be defined by two things: the constant powerhouses of Duke and Carolina, and the bottom of the conference being by far the best of any conference. That second one is completely changed, mostly due I think to the recent coaching turnover.

Other way around. The recent coaching turnover is a result of the struggles by the middle and bottom-tier teams, not a cause of it.

[JasonEvans]

Other way around. The recent coaching turnover is a result of the struggles by the middle and bottom-tier teams, not a cause of it.

I wonder if the utter inability of the rest of the conference to keep up with Duke and UNC has contributed to some of this malaise? Recall that even thought Duke and UNC have been College Hoops Royalty for a long time, we have seen many other ACC teams take turns alongside them for a few years. Ga Tech, Virginia, and NC State were there in the 80s. Maryland and Wake each had time at the top in the 90s and into the early 2000s. There have been others.

But, either Duke or UNC has won the conference regular season every year since 2004 and look at their finishes each year:



2004 - Duke 1, UNC 2
2005 - Duke 3, UNC 1
2006 - Duke 1, UNC 2
2007 - Duke 6, UNC 1
2008 - Duke 2, UNC 1
2009 - Duke 2, UNC 1
2010 - Duke 1, UNC 9
2011 - Duke 2, UNC 1


They have been 1&2 four different times in the past 7 years and the early results would point to that being the case again this year.

I dunno. Probably a silly theory, but it feels a bit as if these two have separated themselves from the rest of the league in a way they didn't really as much in the past.

-Jason "recall that Rick Barnes left Clemson because he felt he could not compete year-in and year-out with Duke and UNC" Evans

[dukebluelemur]

Re: Side note Wisconsin. The fact that they are at unc rather than at home is a big deal for that team, imo. They don't get to use their special ball (http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/is-home-court-advantage-really-about-the-ball/) that gives them _some_ of their home court advantage, and that _may_ affect that previously mentioned 3point shooting.

[Duvall]

Shocking news out of Chapel Hill (https://twitter.com/#!/UNC_Basketball/status/141655205862309888).

[devildeac]

Shocking news out of Chapel Hill (https://twitter.com/#!/UNC_Basketball/status/141655205862309888).

Stunning, simply stunning.:rolleyes:

[JasonEvans]

So, Virginia is less than a minute from wrapping up a solid victory over Michigan. The challenge is officially 1-0 ACC.

Can we stop it now?

;)

-Jason "UVA looked quite good in this game -- they are making a solid case to be at the top of the ACC's second tier" Evans

[jjasper0729]

So, Virginia is less than a minute from wrapping up a solid victory over Michigan. The challenge is officially 1-0 ACC.

Can we stop it now?

;)

-Jason "UVA looked quite good in this game -- they are making a solid case to be at the top of the ACC's second tier" Evans

I think mike Scott is back from his injury. He put the cavs on his back. He could be a VERY big difference maker for them

[CameronBlue]

Stunning, simply stunning.:rolleyes:

Mouth agape, I just dribbled beer onto my laptop, and not just any beer, my last Black Tuesday from The Bruery. Oh why, why oh why, any other day but today! Curse you Roy Williams and your wondrous team doctors! (One of whom, Dr. Taft, rebuilt my knee I should add. Doc Taft, I need more Indomethicin, call me.)

[OldPhiKap]

I am very surprised that Pomeroy favors UVA over Michigan.

I was too. But now I'm a believer.

[DukieInBrasil]

Big 10 is just killing the ACC. Only one game has been decided by less than 10 points, and that was MD loss at home, by 9. UVa got a 12pt win and Clemson got a 16pt win on the road.
4-2 Big Ten (or however many teams they have these days).

[CDu]

UVa pulled a surprising win over Michigan. I didn't see the game, but this score just doesn't seem like the same Michigan team that beat Memphis and gave us a tough game in Maui. Perhaps they had similar "first road game" problems that Duke and UNC (not technically a road loss, but essentially the same thing as it was UNLV in Las Vegas) had. In any case, good for UVa. And good for Clemson for not Clemsoning themselves against a terrible Iowa team.

There's hope for a tie, I think. UNC should beat Wisconsin (unfortunately). Va Tech and FSU could conceivably win their road games at Minnesota and MSU. NC State could win at home vs Indiana. I don't have much faith in Wake on the road or BC period, but who knows? I think we'll split tonight and get to 5-7. So likely another loss, but not a complete steamrolling.

[gumbomoop]

I'll be interested to see how good Jordan Taylor is. I've seen him and Tu Holloway only a little last year, and they seem to have been the preseason consensus best-PGs. As an admirer of Kendall Marshall's wonderful passes and even more of Aaron Craft's absolutely first-rate talents, I wonder whether any of these four will emerge ahead in the PG-rankings through the season. I know there are other fine PGs [Shabazz Napier, Peyton Siva, Larry Drew .... no, that's next year, sorry], but these 4 seem to stand out so far. If Jordan Taylor is as efficient/effective as Craft, I'll be impressed.

UNC gets a break having the game at home rather than having to play in the Kohl Center. I doubt Wisconsin can match the Heels' rebounding, but the Taylor-Marshall duel should be entertaining. Pulling for a more exciting contest than last eve's featured game. Hoping the 'Noles and 'Pack [rather than the Heels] can push the ACC toward 6 wins.

[Billy Dat]

I saw one half of one game of Maryland basketball this year. If that half was representative (which I hope it wasn't), I'd say Maryland versus the Sunset Old Folks Home would be a toss-up. They looked positively TERRIBLE. Like a rec league team at the YMCA. Seriously bad.

I think I am recalling this correctly, the Ohio State game is clouding my mind a bit, but I recall someone from Illinois fouling out and the Terp fans doing the Cameron "ayyyyyy-see ya". They have resorted to flattery in College Park.

[devildeac]

Just in case no one has mentioned it yet: Go Badgers!

[Indoor66]

Just in case no one has mentioned it yet: Go Badgers!

How do you like your Whiskey? Drowning heels.

[CDu]

State goes down to Indiana, BC and FSU going to lose as well. Looks like we'll need to sweep the late games just to get to 5 wins. Another win for the Big Ten in the challenge.

[RockyMtDevil]

The ACC is getting absolutely destroyed in this challenge. Not only is the conference highly suspect in football, now we can't hold our own in basketball. Sad...Seriously, what is wrong? Why can other schools not sustain a level of excellence like Duke and UNC? It's not nearly as hard in basketball. I don't understand why State, Maryland and even UVA are not consistently in the top 30 schools nationally. We may only get 3 invites to the dance this year. Just pitiful.

[Billy Dat]

The ACC is getting absolutely destroyed in this challenge. Not only is the conference highly suspect in football, now we can't hold our own in basketball. Sad...Seriously, what is wrong? Why can other schools not sustain a level of excellence like Duke and UNC? It's not nearly as hard in basketball. I don't understand why State, Maryland and even UVA are not consistently in the top 30 schools nationally. We may only get 3 invites to the dance this year. Just pitiful.

Lots of recent coaching turnover. I think Tony Bennett is laying a sustainable foundation at UVA and I wouldn't bet against Brownell or Turgeon. We'll see about everyone else.

[dukelifer]

The ACC is getting absolutely destroyed in this challenge. Not only is the conference highly suspect in football, now we can't hold our own in basketball. Sad...Seriously, what is wrong? Why can other schools not sustain a level of excellence like Duke and UNC? It's not nearly as hard in basketball. I don't understand why State, Maryland and even UVA are not consistently in the top 30 schools nationally. We may only get 3 invites to the dance this year. Just pitiful.

The ACC will get more than 3 but there is a lot of transition in the league. Clemson, BC, Maryland, State, Tech, Miami, Wake all have new or relatively new coaches and Virginia is not far behind. The Big 10 has folks who have been around for a long time. Systems take time to get established. Also, UNC and Duke make life hard for other coaches in the league. Only 1 Big 10 team has won a NC in 10 years - but they have had lots of bridesmaids. The ACC needs to get some stability to be an elite conference again- even though they have two elite teams who win lots of NCs.

[OldPhiKap]

The ACC is getting absolutely destroyed in this challenge. Not only is the conference highly suspect in football, now we can't hold our own in basketball.


Agree -- although we didn't uphold our end of the bargain this year (as we usually do).

BTW, enjoyed the chat last night with you and the gang on scrubnet (or whatever it is) even though the result of the game @$#@% big @#$@# @#$#@ straight from the @#$@# pits of @#$#@.

Otherwise, pleasant. ;)


Next play.

[ChrisP]

Early 2nd half and Wiscy shooting the 3 like Duke last night :( Currently 3-18 (a sparkling, scintillating 16.7%). Despite that, they're actually up 1 on the 'holes.

[ChrisP]

Early 2nd half and Wiscy shooting the 3 like Duke last night :( Currently 3-18 (a sparkling, scintillating 16.7%). Despite that, they're actually up 1 on the 'holes.

Not sure why this got moved - and thus buried - in this thread but...whatever.

[gumbomoop]

Hardly an exciting game, but at least interesting. Bo can coach. Roy, too, but not so evident just now.

Marshall - Among the keys to limiting his assists is being awake. Marshall gets a noticeable number of assists each game by passing to a teammate whose defender's head is turned. Marshall is always - always - looking to pass when the opponent isn't paying attention.

Barnes - had one obvious flaw to his game last season: mediocre handle. He attended CP3 guard camp to work on it. Without noticeable success. Now, he is more confident in his dribble drive, but that confidence isn't always justified. Indeed, Jay Bilas's mantra about Barnes, which he has uttered a couple of times this evening, is: "Harrison Barnes is effective when he takes one dribble and shoots. But he isn't as effective when he puts it on the floor for more than a single dribble."

Bo knows how to beat the Heels. His guys are really sound. But they need to hit their often-open 3-bombs.

38-34 Badgers at 11:00 mark of 2d half.

[ChrisP]

Carolina would really have to screw up badly to lose it now - 8pt lead with about 5:00 to go...

[Bluedog]

The 4s win (which is what I chose; assuming Carolina holds on as they're up 9 with a minute left). Va Tech again loses a close one. Seems like it happens to them every year. Shocked that Wake actually beat Nebraska, but overall, the ACC showing was disappointing, but mostly expected....We need 'Cuse and Pitt to come quickly. This is the first year the Big Ten beat the ACC by more than a game.

Edit: Now a 5-point game with 47 seconds left. I'm not watching the game personally; just see score. It would be an epic collapse. I'm hoping for only 3 ACC wins!

[ChrisP]

Well, Wisconsin hit some shots late and UNC missed a FT or two and had a couple dumb turnovers to help it be closer than it needed to be. Then, a half-court heave that went in at the buzzer cut the final margin to 3 but it really was more like a 6 point game. Even so, I was kind of surprised Carolina didn't win by more coming off that loss in Vegas (and with Wisc shooting really, really poorly from 3pt range).

[uh_no]

The 4s win (which is what I chose; assuming Carolina holds on as they're up 9 with a minute left). Va Tech again loses a close one. Seems like it happens to them every year. Shocked that Wake actually beat Nebraska, but overall, the ACC showing was disappointing, but mostly expected....We need 'Cuse and Pitt to come quickly. This is the first year the Big Ten beat the ACC by more than a game.

Edit: Now a 5-point game with 47 seconds left. I'm not watching the game personally; just see score. It would be an epic collapse. I'm hoping for only 3 ACC wins!

If anything comes out of this, its that the bottom of the ACC is better than the bottom of the BIG10....the top is about even, and the middle of the ACC is really bad.....now when I say this, I mean relative to a continuum of skill.....if teams went from a skill of say 1-12, then the big 10 would have a pretty even disstribution. The ACC on the other hand, seems to have 2 teams at like a 1.5, and then 10 teams between like a 6 and a 9....FSU is the biggest letdown in my opinion, losing their third straight in a largely uninspired performance against MSU. If anyone is better than the 6-9 bubble that i have assigned to the rest of the ACC, its virginia who played really well and have looked good this year. They have a good chance to come into conference play undefeated, given they have a greenbergesque OOC schedule.

I think the ACC will get 4 tournament teams, the top two along with uva and fsu....with NCSU being a possible fifth

[Saratoga2]

If anything comes out of this, its that the bottom of the ACC is better than the bottom of the BIG10....the top is about even, and the middle of the ACC is really bad.....now when I say this, I mean relative to a continuum of skill.....if teams went from a skill of say 1-12, then the big 10 would have a pretty even disstribution. The ACC on the other hand, seems to have 2 teams at like a 1.5, and then 10 teams between like a 6 and a 9....FSU is the biggest letdown in my opinion, losing their third straight in a largely uninspired performance against MSU. If anyone is better than the 6-9 bubble that i have assigned to the rest of the ACC, its virginia who played really well and have looked good this year. They have a good chance to come into conference play undefeated, given they have a greenbergesque OOC schedule.

I think the ACC will get 4 tournament teams, the top two along with uva and fsu....with NCSU being a possible fifth

After watching a few of the games, my conclusion is that the Big 10 is now superior to the ACC if you look top to bottom. OSU beats either UNC or Duke, whoever you name as the best ACC team. You have Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin close in what appears to be an upper echelon, with Michigan St, Michigan and Minnesota being good teams. Virginia and Clemson won their games and the rest of the ACC tanked with UNC winning a squeaker.

[NYMets9631]

I wonder if the utter inability of the rest of the conference to keep up with Duke and UNC has contributed to some of this malaise? Recall that even thought Duke and UNC have been College Hoops Royalty for a long time, we have seen many other ACC teams take turns alongside them for a few years. Ga Tech, Virginia, and NC State were there in the 80s. Maryland and Wake each had time at the top in the 90s and into the early 2000s. There have been others.

But, either Duke or UNC has won the conference regular season every year since 2004 and look at their finishes each year:



2004 - Duke 1, UNC 2
2005 - Duke 3, UNC 1
2006 - Duke 1, UNC 2
2007 - Duke 6, UNC 1
2008 - Duke 2, UNC 1
2009 - Duke 2, UNC 1
2010 - Duke 1, UNC 9
2011 - Duke 2, UNC 1


They have been 1&2 four different times in the past 7 years and the early results would point to that being the case again this year.

I dunno. Probably a silly theory, but it feels a bit as if these two have separated themselves from the rest of the league in a way they didn't really as much in the past.

-Jason "recall that Rick Barnes left Clemson because he felt he could not compete year-in and year-out with Duke and UNC" Evans

I am a new member and this is my first post. The incorrect information prompted me to post but in 2010 Duke finished Tied for 1st. Maryland shared the ACC Regular Season Title with Duke as they were Co-Champions. Gary Williams was 2010 ACC Coach of the Year and Greivis Vasquez was 2010 ACC Player of the Year.

[ChicagoHeel]

Here's a Grantland article recapping the Wisconsin-UNC game, but also highlighting what the author sees as UNC's ultimate weakness- the lack of a true catalyst (aka Ty Lawson) that can create off the dribble. Not sure I buy it, but the UK game will provide some insight.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/11155/carolina-wisconsin-a-victory-in-retreat

[JasonEvans]

I am a new member and this is my first post. The incorrect information prompted me to post but in 2010 Duke finished Tied for 1st. Maryland shared the ACC Regular Season Title with Duke as they were Co-Champions. Gary Williams was 2010 ACC Coach of the Year and Greivis Vasquez was 2010 ACC Player of the Year.

So, if they tied for 1st, what number would you put next to their name? 1.5?

I guess I could have put 1 (tie), but it would have messed up my nice, neat columns ;)

There were other years where Duke or UNC tied for the position I listed them. It does not materially change the results I spoke about in the post.

-Jason "welcome to the board... go Braves!" Evans

[sagegrouse]

I wonder if the utter inability of the rest of the conference to keep up with Duke and UNC has contributed to some of this malaise? Recall that even thought Duke and UNC have been College Hoops Royalty for a long time, we have seen many other ACC teams take turns alongside them for a few years. Ga Tech, Virginia, and NC State were there in the 80s. Maryland and Wake each had time at the top in the 90s and into the early 2000s. There have been others.

....................

-Jason "recall that Rick Barnes left Clemson because he felt he could not compete year-in and year-out with Duke and UNC" Evans

Bingo! Here's my take: You believe you are the greatest coach on the whole darned planet. You are offered a job to coach an ACC team not named Duke or Carolina. What is your thought process? If there were only one such program, you could see how a perennial number two could win the conference and be a Top 5 team fairly often, or at least every 3-5 years. And maybe, just maybe, rise to compete with the #1 program. If there are two such programs -- where one is always a Top 5 team and sometimes both are in the Top 10, and at least one is a FF contender every year -- boy, it looks a lot tougher for a perennial number three.

In the ACC only Maryland has managed to make waves in the conference and on the national scene in the past 14 years. Yeah, I know, Wake with Paul was tough, especially if you like groin shots. In the 1990s, Wake had a great couple of years with Childress and Duncan and earlier, Georgia Tech was a factor. IMHO (where the H is typically silent) the 1980's was the golden age of competition in the ACC, and it is a lot different now.

sagegrouse

[DukieInBrasil]

What a disappointing collapse by the Pack. They held a modest lead late and then just totally forgot how to play ball. I was really pumped to trumpet about how the Pack has rebounded from the Lowe disaster years, but while they are playing better, they still need to learn how to win. They're not there yet, but getting closer.
Good on UVa, Mike Scott is a really good player. Good on Wake, too, perhaps they can resemble a somewhat-respectable sub-.500 ACC team.

[devildeac]

Just noticed a "bit" of a discrepancy in the FT shooting last PM during the Wiscy-unc game. I saw the Badgers were 3/6 from the charity stripe and the home team was 19/24. Must have been a typo/misprint in the box score, especially considering karl hess was one of the officials:rolleyes:. I know it was "only" one game because I'd "hate" to see that trend continue over a decade or two, considering Duke is "supposed" to get all the calls:rolleyes:.

[-bdbd]

Just noticed a "bit" of a discrepancy in the FT shooting last PM during the Wiscy-unc game. I saw the Badgers were 3/6 from the charity stripe and the home team was 19/24. Must have been a typo/misprint in the box score, especially considering karl hess was one of the officials:rolleyes:. I know it was "only" one game because I'd "hate" to see that trend continue over a decade or two, considering Duke is "supposed" to get all the calls:rolleyes:.

Carolina gets all the calls!!


Actually, every so often someone around here posts the season-end free-throw stats for all of the ACC teams, and with some regularity NC@CH is at the top of the heap for FT's taken and made among ACC squads. I realize that this messes with the oft-repeated storyline out of Chapel Hill, but in fact Kerlina gets the calls in this conference.

-BD "Will always be amused that TH broke JJ's ACC scoring record while shooting from the charity stripe! -BD :cool: