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JasonEvans
11-26-2011, 09:55 PM
So, I happened to look today at which teams Duke and UNC play twice to see who has a tougher slate of games.

Carolina gets a big break in that they only play FSU (clearly the #3 team in the conference, in my mind) once while Duke has to play the Noles twice. Of course, Carolina plays FSU on the road, which is considerably tougher than playing them in Chapel Hill. Advantage UNC.

In my mind, there are 4 teams that make up the next tier of the conference -- Virginia, Va Tech, NC State, and Miami. I suppose some might add Clemson to that list, but I think they are not quite there. Here is how Carolina and Duke compare in terms of games against those teams--


NC State - UNC twice, at Duke
Virginia - UNC twice, at Duke
Va Tech - at UNC, Duke twice
Miami - UNC twice, at Duke


So, UNC plays this middle tier 7 times, Duke only plays it 5 times. All of the solo games happen to be at home. I see this as a fairly significant advantage for Duke. The Devils have only one game on the road against the middle tier, Carolina has 3. Advantage Duke.

By the way, if you want to include Clemson in the pool of middle tier it balances things a bit. Clemson only faces the "big two" once each-- home vs Duke and at UNC (the Hell Freezes Over game).

Obviously, the other side of those matchups against the top and middle of the conference is games against the woeful bottom of the ACC.



Ga Tech (bad) - vs. Duke, at UNC
Maryland (really bad) - Duke twice, UNC twice
Wake (really, really bad) - Duke twice, vs. UNC
BC (maybe worst of all-time) - vs. Duke, at UNC


So, Duke gets one more game against these terrible teams. Duke also gets 4 road games against these clubs. I see that as a real advantage. Road wins are precious in the ACC and Duke likely gets 4 relatively easy ones this year (yes, I probably just cursed us with that comment) while Carolina only gets 2.

The upshot of this note is to say that I think Duke has a slight scheduling advantage in the ACC this year. It may be that Duke and Carolina are good enough so that the games against FSU are all that really matters, in which case Duke has a small disadvantage, but I think the middle tier games especially give Duke a small boost in the race for the regular season crown.

-Jason "it seems so rare that we get the good side of the rotating schedule... nice to see it happen this year" Evans

OldPhiKap
11-26-2011, 11:31 PM
So, I happened to look today at which teams Duke and UNC play twice to see who has a tougher slate of games.

Carolina gets a big break in that they only play FSU (clearly the #3 team in the conference, in my mind) once while Duke has to play the Noles twice. Of course, Carolina plays FSU on the road, which is considerably tougher than playing them in Chapel Hill. Advantage UNC.

In my mind, there are 4 teams that make up the next tier of the conference -- Virginia, Va Tech, NC State, and Miami. I suppose some might add Clemson to that list, but I think they are not quite there. Here is how Carolina and Duke compare in terms of games against those teams--


NC State - UNC twice, at Duke
Virginia - UNC twice, at Duke
Va Tech - at UNC, Duke twice
Miami - UNC twice, at Duke


So, UNC plays this middle tier 7 times, Duke only plays it 5 times. All of the solo games happen to be at home. I see this as a fairly significant advantage for Duke. The Devils have only one game on the road against the middle tier, Carolina has 3. Advantage Duke.

By the way, if you want to include Clemson in the pool of middle tier it balances things a bit. Clemson only faces the "big two" once each-- home vs Duke and at UNC (the Hell Freezes Over game).

Obviously, the other side of those matchups against the top and middle of the conference is games against the woeful bottom of the ACC.



Ga Tech (bad) - vs. Duke, at UNC
Maryland (really bad) - Duke twice, UNC twice
Wake (really, really bad) - Duke twice, vs. UNC
BC (maybe worst of all-time) - vs. Duke, at UNC


So, Duke gets one more game against these terrible teams. Duke also gets 4 road games against these clubs. I see that as a real advantage. Road wins are precious in the ACC and Duke likely gets 4 relatively easy ones this year (yes, I probably just cursed us with that comment) while Carolina only gets 2.

The upshot of this note is to say that I think Duke has a slight scheduling advantage in the ACC this year. It may be that Duke and Carolina are good enough so that the games against FSU are all that really matters, in which case Duke has a small disadvantage, but I think the middle tier games especially give Duke a small boost in the race for the regular season crown.

-Jason "it seems so rare that we get the good side of the rotating schedule... nice to see it happen this year" Evans

"Duke gets all the calls."

Heh.

-bdbd
11-27-2011, 12:14 AM
Thanks Jason. Cool analysis. I pretty much agree with all of your "advantage" assessments.

That's what makes this so surprising, as it has been a very rare occurence that Duke had a more advantageous in-conference slate since Swofford led us into the unbalanced-schedule-era. And I agree that this scheduling advantage should be HUGE, and am quite encouraged to see it. In my mind our odds of winning the regular season just went up quite a bit. :D

I have made this point to NC@CH friends for years, that their beloved Heelz consistently get better in-conference scheduling as coordinated by their former AD, Swofford. (I usually extend the argument a bit further, pointing out that this must be why NC@CH is only ever to win the regular season - b/c of an unbalanced and easier ACC slate - and when put on a level court (say in Greensboro in early-March) they can never win the actual ACC championship. :rolleyes:

Good stuff! We were about due for this break. :cool:






.

JasonEvans
11-27-2011, 10:06 AM
Thanks Jason. Cool analysis. I pretty much agree with all of your "advantage" assessments.

That's what makes this so surprising, as it has been a very rare occurence that Duke had a more advantageous in-conference slate since Swofford led us into the unbalanced-schedule-era. And I agree that this scheduling advantage should be HUGE, and am quite encouraged to see it. In my mind our odds of winning the regular season just went up quite a bit. :D

I have made this point to NC@CH friends for years, that their beloved Heelz consistently get better in-conference scheduling as coordinated by their former AD, Swofford. (I usually extend the argument a bit further, pointing out that this must be why NC@CH is only ever to win the regular season - b/c of an unbalanced and easier ACC slate - and when put on a level court (say in Greensboro in early-March) they can never win the actual ACC championship. :rolleyes:

Good stuff! We were about due for this break. :cool: .

BD,

I want to be clear that I do not think there has been some grand conspiracy engineered to give UNC an advantage in the conference scheduling. I am fairly certain that, aside from the permanent partners, the schedules follow a fixed pattern of who you play twice and who you play once and whether the one-time opponents are home or away. It rotates season to season.

But, thanks to a certain amount of luck, Carolina has managed to get the easy end of the stick more often than not. There is no way to predict, at this point, whether teams like Wake/GaT/NCSt/Maryland/Virginia will suck horribly or be good in 5 years... but it sure felt like if it was their year to be good, Duke had to play them twice.

It is sorta nice to see that trend finally reverse itself this year... though (again) the team that clearly appears to be #3 in the league (FSU) is the team Duke plays twice while Carolina only once.

Also worth noting that for years Carolina had an inherent advantage in their permanent partner. UNC played Duke and NCSt twice every year while Duke played UNC and Maryland. For pretty much the entire past decade, that meant a pair of relatively easy games for UNC and a pair of fairly tough ones for Duke. This year, finally, I think there is little doubt that NC State is better than Maryland.

-Jason "worth noting that no ACC game is a gimme... I bet awful BC will rise up and at least give a big scare to some top-tier team this season" Evans

gumbomoop
11-27-2011, 12:39 PM
So, I happened to look today at which teams Duke and UNC play twice to see who has a tougher slate of games.

Carolina gets a big break in that they only play FSU (clearly the #3 team in the conference, in my mind) once while Duke has to play the Noles twice. Of course, Carolina plays FSU on the road, which is considerably tougher than playing them in Chapel Hill. Advantage UNC.

In my mind, there are 4 teams that make up the next tier of the conference -- Virginia, Va Tech, NC State, and Miami. I suppose some might add Clemson to that list, but I think they are not quite there. Here is how Carolina and Duke compare in terms of games against those teams--


NC State - UNC twice, at Duke
Virginia - UNC twice, at Duke
Va Tech - at UNC, Duke twice
Miami - UNC twice, at Duke


So, UNC plays this middle tier 7 times, Duke only plays it 5 times. All of the solo games happen to be at home. I see this as a fairly significant advantage for Duke. The Devils have only one game on the road against the middle tier, Carolina has 3. Advantage Duke.

By the way, if you want to include Clemson in the pool of middle tier it balances things a bit. Clemson only faces the "big two" once each-- home vs Duke and at UNC (the Hell Freezes Over game).

Obviously, the other side of those matchups against the top and middle of the conference is games against the woeful bottom of the ACC.



Ga Tech (bad) - vs. Duke, at UNC
Maryland (really bad) - Duke twice, UNC twice
Wake (really, really bad) - Duke twice, vs. UNC
BC (maybe worst of all-time) - vs. Duke, at UNC


So, Duke gets one more game against these terrible teams. Duke also gets 4 road games against these clubs. I see that as a real advantage. Road wins are precious in the ACC and Duke likely gets 4 relatively easy ones this year (yes, I probably just cursed us with that comment) while Carolina only gets 2.

The upshot of this note is to say that I think Duke has a slight scheduling advantage in the ACC this year. It may be that Duke and Carolina are good enough so that the games against FSU are all that really matters, in which case Duke has a small disadvantage, but I think the middle tier games especially give Duke a small boost in the race for the regular season crown.

-Jason "it seems so rare that we get the good side of the rotating schedule... nice to see it happen this year" Evans

I'm interested in this topic, as it seems obvious to me that the unbalanced mess stuff has a real impact on who finishes first in regular season. On the issues Jason Evans rightly raises, I've posted at some length on earlier [Sept-Oct] threads ["2011-12 MBB Schedule Speculation" and "ACC Schedule Released"], as have the always very informative ACCBBallFan and Olympic Fan.

The overriding issue here is whether Duke can win the regular season. As we have just gone through a week in which Duke won Maui by defeating 3 well-coached, pretty tough teams, while UNC lost to a very tough and talented team, one might say, "Well, of course Duke can finish first in the ACC." But, UNC is perhaps still fairly tagged the ACC favorite, so it makes sense to highlight a few points raised in those earlier threads, and here emphasized by Jason:

1. FSU - I'm sticking with my view that, as Duke is the only team that can challenge the Heels for #1, so FSU is the only team that will challenge Duke for #2. I agree that this one is "advantage Heels," but only if they win in Tally. UNC at FSU is very big.

2. Middle tier - I agree with Jason's middle tier list, but need to make a significant correction: UNC plays VT only once, but at VT, not in CH. So, while I definitely agree that re the "middle tier," Duke has a solid advantage, it's more solid than Jason suggests. In fact it's pretty dramatic: Duke plays but one "middle tier" team away, VT, whereas UNC plays all 4 middle tier teams on the road. Big advantage to Duke.

3. Clemson - Now, if one insists that Clemson is in the middle tier, that reduces Duke's advantage, but it doesn't eliminate it. At any rate, that UNC gets Clemson only in CH, while Duke gets Clemson only in Littlejohn is advantage UNC.

4. Bottom tier - Another Duke advantage, for exactly the reasons Jason states.

5. Bottom line - I'd go a bit further than Jason, and say Duke has a clear unbalanced mess advantage this season. ACCBBallFan and Olympic Fan have done superb work in earlier threads - and previous seasons - on this maddening mess stuff, so their further analysis might correct my intuitive feel this time; but I do think this is the first time in recent memory that Duke has any unbalanced mess advantage over the Heels. More tantalizing, it seems to me that it's more than a slight advantage; Carolina has a tougher road in the ACC, with 6 challenging road games and one challenging home game; whereas Duke has 4 challenging road games and one challenging home game.

6. Bottomer line - None of which will make any difference unless Duke plays hard every game, and unless FSU and at least one of those middle tier teams nip the Heels when the Heels visit. I repeat my earlier prediction: third overtime in CIS on March 3 will determine the regular season #1.

JasonEvans
11-27-2011, 11:04 PM
My gummy friend --

Thanks for highlighting some of the important points in my post. I would also add that I am aware there have been previous discussions of this issue, but I wanted to bring it to the fore again in light of the fact that everyone in the ACC has now played at least a few games and our views of who the top, middle, and bottom are seems to be a bit clearer.

Of course, these teams can and will rise and fall as the season goes on... a team who looks terrible in November sometimes becomes a fairly decent club by February. Probably worth revisiting this in another month.

-Jason "lets hope that middle tier does its job and steals a couple at home from the Heels this season" Evans

Indoor66
11-28-2011, 08:12 AM
My gummy friend --

Thanks for highlighting some of the important points in my post. I would also add that I am aware there have been previous discussions of this issue, but I wanted to bring it to the fore again in light of the fact that everyone in the ACC has now played at least a few games and our views of who the top, middle, and bottom are seems to be a bit clearer.

Of course, these teams can and will rise and fall as the season goes on... a team who looks terrible in November sometimes becomes a fairly decent club by February. Probably worth revisiting this in another month.

-Jason "lets hope that middle tier does its job and steals a couple at home from the Heels this season" Evans

The bigger question is whether the heels can uphold their end of the bargain! :cool::cool: