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View Full Version : Ryan Kelly's emerging awesomeness



stixof96
11-24-2011, 12:50 AM
Last year, I made several posts about how good Kelly was going to be and how important he would be...well, i got smoked by a few of you for it....was even accused of being his mother.......i will now accept any apoligizies due......LOL !!!!......HE'S A DIFFERENCE MAKER.........

NYBri
11-24-2011, 12:53 AM
Reminded me of Singler tonight.

wncdevilfan
11-24-2011, 12:54 AM
played great the whole tournament. makes good decisions, and does what it takes to win. big asset to the team.

DesertDevil
11-24-2011, 12:57 AM
Kid is playing with supreme confidence right now. Emerging as the leader of the team.

stixof96
11-24-2011, 12:58 AM
smart too.......he is one smart basketball player.........

CDu
11-24-2011, 01:00 AM
I really like his pairing with Mason. The two have such complementary skill sets. When they're in there, I usually feel good about things, as they don't need a playmaker to set them up.

wsb3
11-24-2011, 08:52 AM
smart too.......he is one smart basketball player.........

Smart is the word that comes to my mind first when talking about Ryan. Really neat to see the development he has made.

dukepsy1963
11-24-2011, 09:35 AM
It is great to see Ryan develop more and more each game. Yes, he is "smart," but is becoming/is a leader in the making. You could see it in his eyes last night after he made a big defensive or offensive move and then looked around for something more he could do. He was determined to win; he blocked, he guarded tough, he shot, he rebounded, and he wanted 'more."

As for the team, well..............

To quote Miles Davis after an incredible solo by Kenny Garrett, "hell, we do that every night!"

davekay1971
11-24-2011, 09:56 AM
I really like his pairing with Mason. The two have such complementary skill sets. When they're in there, I usually feel good about things, as they don't need a playmaker to set them up.

Excellent point, and they make a great 4-5 combo. RK isn't afraid to get in the lane, defend a power forward, and rebound, but he's so good at operating 20-25 feet from the basket. That pulls the opposing team's 4 out and opens up the lane for Mason and Miles, which makes them much more effective. It's taken a couple years to see it develop, but the Mason/Ryan recruiting combo is an absolute gem.

Kimist
11-24-2011, 10:32 AM
Smart is the word that comes to my mind first when talking about Ryan. Really neat to see the development he has made.

Agreed. I've been an admirer of Ryan along the way, since he is a "local boy" and his work ethic et al have frequently been reported in the area media. Before the team even arrived in Maui, I felt that the play of Ryan this season would be instrumental in determining whatever direction the team took.

While his skill sets are different due to his size, I compare him a lot to Jim Spanarkel whose basketball skills were only enhanced by how well he understood the game, and his teammates, and how he frequently just "out-smarted" the opposition.

k

hq2
11-24-2011, 03:49 PM
While his skill sets are different due to his size, I compare him a lot to Jim Spanarkel whose basketball skills were only enhanced by how well he understood the game, and his teammates, and how he frequently just "out-smarted" the opposition.


Good comparison. Neither was very quick or a good leaper, but they were both very smart and very coordinated. That's the part about
RK that's impressing me also. He's really learning all the things he can do with that 6-11 body, and since he has excellent body
control, he's finding out he can do like, a whole lot. Can't wait to see how much better he gets. I'd say he's about better now than
Ferry was as a sophomore, and he still has plenty of upside.

burnspbesq
11-24-2011, 04:09 PM
Ryan may not be quick enough to be a difference-maker in the NBA, but his overall game screams "Euroleague All-Star."

dukestheheat
11-24-2011, 09:20 PM
Ryan's whole game has improved this year over last, I believe, and I have a lot of confidence in him to take his shot! I have loved watching his hustle on the defensive end and in the lane, but mostly, I see that he's improved on his high-post game; he's giving some solid lower post entry passes from his receipt of the ball when he's in the high post, and he's much more valuable to us because of it! We are going to continue to need him to step it up and work that high/low, and to take his shots! Great game tonight and he is my MVP!

dukestheheat.

jamesfrommaiden
11-25-2011, 12:52 PM
Do you think it is crazy to ponder the idea of Ryan Kelly averaging 15 points and 7 rebounds a game? I certainly don't think so. He can easily put up bigger numbers than that. I know he is more than capable of it. On a lesser team i see him as a 20ppg and 10rpg guy easily. It would be so nice to see him surplant one of UNC's frontline guys as a first or second team all ACC performer. Keep it up Ryan. You are the man.

uh_no
11-25-2011, 12:59 PM
Is it too early to start a "retire ryan kelly vigil" thread?

NSDukeFan
11-25-2011, 01:04 PM
Is it too early to start a "retire ryan kelly vigil" thread?

I hope you mean his number, as I am hoping he will be playing awhile.:)

uh_no
11-25-2011, 01:26 PM
I hope you mean his number, as I am hoping he will be playing awhile.:)

Nah definitely retire ryan kelly....we get it...he's good....he's had his fun...but its getting old with him scoring 15+ every game...now its time to give someone else a chance, like marshall

CDu
11-25-2011, 01:31 PM
Do you think it is crazy to ponder the idea of Ryan Kelly averaging 15 points and 7 rebounds a game? I certainly don't think so. He can easily put up bigger numbers than that. I know he is more than capable of it. On a lesser team i see him as a 20ppg and 10rpg guy easily. It would be so nice to see him surplant one of UNC's frontline guys as a first or second team all ACC performer. Keep it up Ryan. You are the man.

I certainly don't think 15 ppg is unreasonable. The 7 rpg part might be optimistic, though. He's averaging 4.6 rpg, and has a per 40 minutes rate of 6.4. Part of that is because the Plumlees are rebounding at a higher rate (over 13 rebounds per 40 minutes for each). But that will probably keep Kelly from getting to 7 rpg.

I don't think 20 and 10 "easily" is reasonable. Even on a bad team, that'd be really hard to do.

Unfortunately, I don't see Kelly getting past Henson or Zeller on the All-ACC list. Barring injury, I think those guys are just going to get too high a volume of opportunities (and of course they're really good too) to not outproduce Kelly.

I could certainly see a 2nd/3rd team honor for Kelly though.

OZZIE4DUKE
11-25-2011, 03:45 PM
Agreed. I've been an admirer of Ryan along the way, since he is a "local boy" and his work ethic et al have frequently been reported in the area media. Before the team even arrived in Maui, I felt that the play of Ryan this season would be instrumental in determining whatever direction the team took.

While his skill sets are different due to his size, I compare him a lot to Jim Spanarkel whose basketball skills were only enhanced by how well he understood the game, and his teammates, and how he frequently just "out-smarted" the opposition.

k


Good comparison. Neither was very quick or a good leaper, but they were both very smart and very coordinated. That's the part about
RK that's impressing me also. He's really learning all the things he can do with that 6-11 body, and since he has excellent body
control, he's finding out he can do like, a whole lot. Can't wait to see how much better he gets. I'd say he's about better now than
Ferry was as a sophomore, and he still has plenty of upside.
So you're suggesting that Kelly "Spanarkel's" opponents! That term, Spanarkeling, was coined by a local sports writer during Jimmy's junior year (I think), when he became enamored by how thoroughly he out hustled, out positioned, out thought and out smarted opponents by a player who wasn't all that athletic quick or slick, but got the job done exquisitely!

And if next year there is talk about retiring #34, it's got to be a double ceremony, including Spanarkel! :cool:

Lord Ash
11-25-2011, 04:46 PM
And if next year there is talk about retiring #34...

Don't even start with that.

OldPhiKap
11-25-2011, 05:22 PM
Nah definitely retire ryan kelly....we get it...he's good....he's had his fun...but its getting old with him scoring 15+ every game...now its time to give someone else a chance, like marshall

Maybe all the other teams can petition for him to redshirt the rest of the season.

hq2
11-25-2011, 05:53 PM
So you're suggesting that Kelly "Spanarkel's" opponents! That term, Spanarkeling, was coined by a local sports writer during Jimmy's junior year (I think), when he became enamored by how thoroughly he out hustled, out positioned, out thought and out smarted opponents by a player who wasn't all that athletic quick or slick, but got the job done exquisitely!

And if next year there is talk about retiring #34, it's got to be a double ceremony, including Spanarkel! :cool:

Maybe we could coin a new verb, "Kellyed - to be outmaneuvered, outpassed, and outshot by a basketball player over 6-10 in height"

NYC Duke Fan
11-25-2011, 06:55 PM
If I am not mistaken, wasn't he named one of the captains of the team?

UrinalCake
11-25-2011, 09:46 PM
His play in Maui reminds me of Battier. I know that sounds a little crazy given their different skill sets but bear with me here... Shane was never the most talented player on his team. That happens when your teammates include Brand, Boozer, J-Will, Dunleavy, etc. Yet he was always considered the "mother hen" for his leadership, versatility, and willingness to do whatever it takes to win. I see just a little bit of that in Ryan, and it's continuing to develop. A couple examples of his heady play:

Towards the end of the Michigan game Michigan had been making a run to come back and were full-court pressing on every possession. A Michigan player drives in for a layup, which we only halfway contested. While everyone else on the court is taking a quick mental breather, Ryan has already gotten himself in position to receive the inbounds pass, bodies his man away from him and starts hollering to the inbounder to get him the ball. The pass is made before the defense has a chance to set up, avoiding a potential trap with getting the ball inbounds.

Near the end of the Kansas game Mason gets his hands on an offensive rebound and is mugged by two defenders. They take the ball and no call his made. Kelly recognizes that the refs are letting them play, and on the other end he does the exact same thing, grabbing it out of the hands of a Kansas player which probably should have been a foul but he realized it wasn't going to be called.

UrinalCake
11-25-2011, 09:50 PM
If I am not mistaken, wasn't he named one of the captains of the team?

Kelly and Miles are the co-captains. Coach K typically has one senior and one junior acting as co-captains, perhaps to groom the junior for the following year.

Newton_14
11-25-2011, 09:52 PM
Kelly and Miles are the co-captains. Coach K typically has one senior and one junior acting as co-captains, perhaps to groom the junior for the following year.

Correction. They are Tri-Captains with Seth. K named Seth as a captain in October.

hq2
11-26-2011, 09:54 AM
To put RK in perspective, I'm trying to find another player who has improved as much as he has in 2 years, from skinny freshman
late game afterthought to possible All Conference level player. The only other one I can think of would be Tate Armstrong, who
made a similar progression, and that was aided by the fact that the rest of the team was lousy, unnaturally skewing field goal attempts
on his behalf ( "Gimme the ball, I'm gonna shoot every time down"). Hard to think of another one who has improved this much. And, looking
at the way he's playing, there's room for plenty more; with that level of smarts and coordination, who knows how good he can be. He's
still discovering it.

NSDukeFan
11-26-2011, 10:01 AM
To put RK in perspective, I'm trying to find another player who has improved as much as he has in 2 years, from skinny freshman
late game afterthought to possible All Conference level player. The only other one I can think of would be Tate Armstrong, who
made a similar progression, and that was aided by the fact that the rest of the team was lousy, unnaturally skewing field goal attempts
on his behalf ( "Gimme the ball, I'm gonna shoot every time down"). Hard to think of another one who has improved this much. And, looking
at the way he's playing, there's room for plenty more; with that level of smarts and coordination, who knows how good he can be. He's
still discovering it.

Nolan Smith?
http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=2473

Faison1
11-26-2011, 10:15 AM
To put RK in perspective, I'm trying to find another player who has improved as much as he has in 2 years, from skinny freshman
late game afterthought to possible All Conference level player. The only other one I can think of would be Tate Armstrong, who
made a similar progression, and that was aided by the fact that the rest of the team was lousy, unnaturally skewing field goal attempts
on his behalf ( "Gimme the ball, I'm gonna shoot every time down"). Hard to think of another one who has improved this much. And, looking
at the way he's playing, there's room for plenty more; with that level of smarts and coordination, who knows how good he can be. He's
still discovering it.

There's too many to count, but off the top of my head, I'd go with Nolan, Thomas Hill, Phil Henderson.....I think even Alaa Abdelnaby got some ACC looks.

Dunleavy was pretty skinny his frosh year. There's others.

That's pretty much been the hallmark of Coach K's career....having players visibly improve over their careers.

davekay1971
11-26-2011, 10:22 AM
Nolan Smith?
http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=2473

Looking at Freshman to Junior improvement (which would include players that made the Great Leap Forward between Fr and Soph years) the top four that stand out in my mind are:

1) Nolan Smith (freshman thought: nice kid, hope he puts it together because he seems to have some talent; sophomore thought: wow, really really hope that great kid puts it together because he seems to have some talent; junior thought: OH MY GOD, where did that come from?)

2) Mike Dunleavy, Jr (remember how skinny he was freshman year...dear lord I thought Nate James might mistake him for a toothpick and use him to clean between his teeth after devouring one of the four designated cheerleader-scrub-ball/water/towel/bag carrying boys off the end of the Carolina bench)

3) Shane Battier (I will always remember...focusing the chi, which transmogrified Shane from bench player to NPOY contender)

4) Thomas Hill (From Billy McCaffrey's back-up to, "T - U Da Man")

Addendum: Absolutely agree with Faison: while the four guys above are the top four in that come to my mind, Coach K has a great track record for players making big improvements over their time at Duke.

CDu
11-26-2011, 10:31 AM
Nolan Smith?
http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=2473

This may be a semantics argument, but I don't think Smith quite qualifies on the criteria. Smith was a skinny freshman and certainly improved a lot as a player, but he was not a late-game afterthought as a freshman. He averaged close to 15mpg and 6ppg as a freshman and was a double-figures scorer in 6 games (5 of those against BCS schools). Kelly was, by January, a 3-5 mpg type of guy.

By that same token, guys like Dunleavy, Battier, Thomas Hill, etc, don't qualify either, as they were regular contributors as freshmen. They certainly improved a ton over their 3-4 years, but they started off with too big a role relative to Kelly.

dukedoc
11-26-2011, 10:33 AM
Ryan may not be quick enough to be a difference-maker in the NBA, but his overall game screams "Euroleague All-Star."

Like you, in the context of his emergence, I'm beginning to think a bit more about Ryan's NBA prospects, and I actually think he has a good shot of carving out a career. K mentioned something about Kelly going to the NBA eventually in his postgame I believe, although I don't have the quote (sorry). What do people think, is he NBA quality? He is certainly tall, but not (as far as I've been told) strong enough (yet). He has a versatile skillset and is uber-smart. Is there an NBA future for him? If so, which current (locked out) NBA guy is most analogous?

davekay1971
11-26-2011, 10:43 AM
Like you, in the context of his emergence, I'm beginning to think a bit more about Ryan's NBA prospects, and I actually think he has a good shot of carving out a career. K mentioned something about Kelly going to the NBA eventually in his postgame I believe, although I don't have the quote (sorry). What do people think, is he NBA quality? He is certainly tall, but not (as far as I've been told) strong enough (yet). He has a versatile skillset and is uber-smart. Is there an NBA future for him? If so, which current (locked out) NBA guy is most analagous?

Absolutely there's a place in the NBA for him. The NBA, in fact, seems to love guys like Kelly...they just usually have funny names and accents. Some of the most successful foreign talent coming into the NBA has been tall guys with great outside game. Kelly needs to improve aspects of his game to succeed at that level, but given the 2 year improvement we've seen so far, I feel confident that, over the next 1 and 3/4 seasons, we'll see Kelly continue to grow. His two biggest areas for improvement for life in the NBA, imho:

1) Strength - he's made big strides, but he's still got more to go. He needs to be able to defend the 4 in the NBA, so he's going to have to get stronger. A lot stronger.

2) Range - Kelly's got a nice shot from the college 3, but he needs to get better and he needs to improve his range. He needs to be able to hit reliably from the NBA 3 point line.

As for who, there was some discussion earlier on the board about this. I believe his best role model in the NBA would be Dirk. Ryan's ceiling may not be Dirk's level, but that's ok...not many guys in the history of the game have that ceiling.

NSDukeFan
11-26-2011, 10:48 AM
This may be a semantics argument, but I don't think Smith quite qualifies on the criteria. Smith was a skinny freshman and certainly improved a lot as a player, but he was not a late-game afterthought as a freshman. He averaged close to 15mpg and 6ppg as a freshman and was a double-figures scorer in 6 games (5 of those against BCS schools). Kelly was, by January, a 3-5 mpg type of guy.

By that same token, guys like Dunleavy, Battier, Thomas Hill, etc, don't qualify either, as they were regular contributors as freshmen. They certainly improved a ton over their 3-4 years, but they started off with too big a role relative to Kelly.

I focused on the initial criteria of improving so much over 2 years, while minimizing the exact standing of each player.

House G
11-26-2011, 10:54 AM
Like you, in the context of his emergence, I'm beginning to think a bit more about Ryan's NBA prospects, and I actually think he has a good shot of carving out a career. K mentioned something about Kelly going to the NBA eventually in his postgame I believe, although I don't have the quote (sorry). What do people think, is he NBA quality? He is certainly tall, but not (as far as I've been told) strong enough (yet). He has a versatile skillset and is uber-smart. Is there an NBA future for him? If so, which current (locked out) NBA guy is most analogous?

Although not a current player, he reminds me a little of Jack Sikma.

Kedsy
11-26-2011, 12:46 PM
To put RK in perspective, I'm trying to find another player who has improved as much as he has in 2 years, from skinny freshman
late game afterthought to possible All Conference level player. The only other one I can think of would be Tate Armstrong, who
made a similar progression, and that was aided by the fact that the rest of the team was lousy, unnaturally skewing field goal attempts
on his behalf ( "Gimme the ball, I'm gonna shoot every time down"). Hard to think of another one who has improved this much. And, looking
at the way he's playing, there's room for plenty more; with that level of smarts and coordination, who knows how good he can be. He's
still discovering it.

I made this comparison in the off-season between Ryan's freshman and sophomore years, and I still think it's somewhat apt: Tom Gugliotta (not a Duke player, but still...).

Here's Gugliotta's progression:



MIN FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG TPG BPG SPG PPG
88-89 NC State 8.1 42.9 50.0 65.5 1.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 2.7
89-90 NC State 29.5 50.4 48.9 67.2 7.0 1.6 1.8 0.4 1.6 11.1
90-91 NC State 36.2 50.0 39.8 64.4 9.1 2.8 2.2 1.1 1.7 15.2
91-92 NC State 36.9 44.9 39.9 68.5 9.8 3.1 3.6 0.5 2.1 22.5


Gugliotta was more of a rebounder, less of a shotblocker, and not as good of a free throw shooter as Ryan. His sophomore year stats appear a lot better than Ryan's, but if you adjust for Ryan playing 33% fewer minutes then Googs that season, Ryan's projected 9.9, 5.5, 1.2 aren't really that far off Gugliotta's production. So while the comparison is not perfect, it's not bad, and if Ryan continues a similar progression to Gugliotta, I suspect we'll all be pretty happy.

hq2
11-26-2011, 07:46 PM
Pretty good comparison. They were similar, good all around 6'10" players (Googs may have been 6'9") who developed
gradually into All American level. Googs was a little quicker and maybe a better ballhandler. RK has longer arms and is
a little taller, so he may become a little better low post player. Googs had a pretty good pro career too, as I recall,
being the #6 pick in an excellent class (Shaq, Alonzo, Laettner and more). RK would be doing well to follow in his footsteps.

rocketeli
11-26-2011, 08:54 PM
You could also name John Smith (look it up young-'uns!)

Hate to even think it, but RKelly's so improved this year, and will benefit from the extra hype a good white forward gets from the media--he might enter the draft this Spring...

tele
11-26-2011, 10:35 PM
Do you mean Ryan Kelly, Maui MVP?

Gugliotta's a good comparison, and maybe Marin?

OldPhiKap
11-26-2011, 11:49 PM
You could also name John Smith (look it up young-'uns!)

Hate to even think it, but RKelly's so improved this year, and will benefit from the extra hype a good white forward gets from the media--he might enter the draft this Spring...

Haven't thought about John in a long time. Good call, and I would say that Ryan is a much better ball handler than big John.

Googs is a good comparison, as is Matt Harpring. Although Ryan's game reminds me of Danny Ferry more than anyone. Not in terms of growth -- Danny was the #1 player coming out of HS on most polls (David Rivers was the other major contender, with a bad injury in HS that knocked him down some lists IIRC). But RKelly has Danny's game down, absent the coach's son-type "and one" calls. (Danny always had a way of getting fouled when he hit his shots -- at a time when it was Dean, Terry and Lefty getting all the calls).

Verga3
11-27-2011, 10:27 PM
Going with the Ryan comparison theme...Danny Ferry with a dash of Spanarkel and a hint of Abdelnaby?

hq2
11-28-2011, 09:09 AM
Yes, but all of those guys did do something as freshmen. (As I recall, Sparky was ACC rookie of the year). Kelly did basically nothing, and
didn't even look like he would become much of a factor. That's why the improvement has been so remarkable.

Faison1
11-28-2011, 09:27 AM
Yes, but all of those guys did do something as freshmen. (As I recall, Sparky was ACC rookie of the year). Kelly did basically nothing, and
didn't even look like he would become much of a factor. That's why the improvement has been so remarkable.

I am in full agreement with you in being thrilled with Ryan's play so far this year. But using a word like remarkable is a bit off base. The guy was a McDonald's All-American. Without looking at RSCI, I think he was a top-20 recruit.

Even when he was sitting on the bench his freshman year, we kept hearing about his skills and Coach's future plans for him. He was riding the pine because he needed to gain some weight, and Lance Thomas and the Plumlee's were ahead of him in the rotation.

Alex Murphy could be following the same path.

So, if we use the word remarkable, I might apply it to Coach K's ability to keep Ryan from transferring after his first year.

roywhite
11-28-2011, 09:34 AM
I am in full agreement with you in being thrilled with Ryan's play so far this year. But using a word like remarkable is a bit off base. The guy was a McDonald's All-American. Without looking at RSCI, I think he was a top-20 recruit.Even when he was sitting on the bench his freshman year, we kept hearing about his skills and Coach's future plans for him. He was riding the pine because he needed to gain some weight, and Lance Thomas and the Plumlee's were ahead of him in the rotation.

Alex Murphy could be following the same path.

So, if we use the word remarkable, I might apply it to Coach K's ability to keep Ryan from transferring after his first year.

You're right about his recruiting ranking.

Most services had Ryan Kelly in the 10-20 range, and he finished with a composite #14 in the RSCI rankings for class of 2009.

RSCI rankings (http://www.rscihoops.com/)

hq2
11-28-2011, 11:36 AM
So, where would he rank now? In the top 5 or 10? I mean if he was rated that highly then, look at where he is now. And what I like about'
him even more, in addition to his skills, is that he has 'tude. I mean, the guy is a competitor, and really, really wants to win, and doesn't back
down out there. That's why I think he can get even better than now; is AA a possibility? Who knows.

Indoor66
11-28-2011, 12:39 PM
Yes, but all of those guys did do something as freshmen. (As I recall, Sparky was ACC rookie of the year). Kelly did basically nothing, and
didn't even look like he would become much of a factor. That's why the improvement has been so remarkable.

That is, IMO, a little unfair. Spanarkle was the Rookie of the Year. He was the first ACC ROY (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Coast_Conference_Men%27s_Basketball_Rooki e_of_the_Year) in 1976 (followed by Giminski/Whitney at State as co-ROY in 1977 and then Banks in 1978.) When Jim came in it was after the down years of Duke Basketball and Spanarkle started very quickly and became THE MAN in his freshman year. Kelly never had that responsibility or expectation. Kelly was behind some good players in a successful program. Very few players come to Duke and start their freshman year. Remember, his freshman year had Thomas and Zoubek and went on to win some tournaments at the end of the year. His sophomore year he played a backup roll with Singler playing the bulk of the minutes at his slot.

Kelly has done very well considering who was in front of him. Now that it is his turn, he is filling it up.

Faison1
11-28-2011, 12:58 PM
So, where would he rank now? In the top 5 or 10? I mean if he was rated that highly then, look at where he is now. And what I like about'
him even more, in addition to his skills, is that he has 'tude. I mean, the guy is a competitor, and really, really wants to win, and doesn't back
down out there. That's why I think he can get even better than now; is AA a possibility? Who knows.

I'm not sure I understand your question. Most of the guys ahead of him in his class were pretty good. Here's the list:

Derrick Favors
John Wall
Demarcus Cousins
Avery Bradley
John Henson
Xavier Henry
Renardo Sidney
Lance Stephenson
Kenny Boynton
Keith Gallon
Abdul Gaddy
Mouphtao Yarro
Dante Taylor

With the exception of a few of them, I'd have to say that if they were all still playing in college vs. the NBA, they'd still probably be ranked ahead of Ryan. (maybe he moves up a few spots.)

Now, don't get me wrong....I'm just as stoked as you about Ryan's emergence, but let's let him get a full season under his belt before we start gushing about how much he wants to win. I'm pretty sure most the guys ahead of him in his class had big attitude's as well.

Kedsy
11-28-2011, 01:10 PM
With the exception of a few of them, I'd have to say that if they were all still playing in college vs. the NBA, they'd still probably be ranked ahead of Ryan. (maybe he moves up a few spots.)

There were also several guys rated below Ryan who would have moved ahead of him (e.g., #100 Derrick Williams, #48 Kawhi Leonard, #28 Thomas Robinson, #18 Mason Plumlee, #52 Eric Bledsoe, #19 Daniel Orton (maybe), probably a few more). So, if anything, Ryan has probably moved down in the rankings, not up.

I am not putting Ryan down at all. I'm thrilled with his play so far this season. But when you're the #14 recruit in the country, you're supposed to be good.

CDu
11-28-2011, 01:34 PM
There were also several guys rated below Ryan who would have moved ahead of him (e.g., #100 Derrick Williams, #48 Kawhi Leonard, #28 Thomas Robinson, #18 Mason Plumlee, #52 Eric Bledsoe, #19 Daniel Orton (maybe), probably a few more). So, if anything, Ryan has probably moved down in the rankings, not up.

I am not putting Ryan down at all. I'm thrilled with his play so far this season. But when you're the #14 recruit in the country, you're supposed to be good.

Agreed. Relative to what he did as a freshman, his emergence is pretty amazing. But relative to where he was rated coming out of high school, what he's doing shouldn't be all that amazing.

In any case, what he's doing right now is very valuable, and that's all that really matters.

OldPhiKap
11-28-2011, 01:40 PM
That is, IMO, a little unfair. Spanarkle was the Rookie of the Year. He was the first ACC ROY (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Coast_Conference_Men%27s_Basketball_Rooki e_of_the_Year) in 1976 (followed by Giminski/Whitney at State as co-ROY in 1977 and then Banks in 1978.) When Jim came in it was after the down years of Duke Basketball and Spanarkle started very quickly and became THE MAN in his freshman year. Kelly never had that responsibility or expectation. Kelly was behind some good players in a successful program. Very few players come to Duke and start their freshman year. Remember, his freshman year had Thomas and Zoubek and went on to win some tournaments at the end of the year. His sophomore year he played a backup roll with Singler playing the bulk of the minutes at his slot.

Kelly has done very well considering who was in front of him. Now that it is his turn, he is filling it up.

As they say in my church, "Bingo!"

Wander
11-28-2011, 01:41 PM
On a larger note, this seems like the road map for Duke's recruiting - go for the guys in the 10ish to 20ish range and get them to stay three or four years. Redick, Demarcus, Nolan, Mason, Kelly, Henderson, Scheyer, Lance, etc. Much more stable and rewarding than a Calipari-esque strategy, IMO.

House G
11-28-2011, 01:48 PM
That is, IMO, a little unfair. Spanarkle was the Rookie of the Year. He was the first ACC ROY (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Coast_Conference_Men%27s_Basketball_Rooki e_of_the_Year) in 1976 (followed by Giminski/Whitney at State as co-ROY in 1977 and then Banks in 1978.) When Jim came in it was after the down years of Duke Basketball and Spanarkle started very quickly and became THE MAN in his freshman year. Kelly never had that responsibility or expectation. Kelly was behind some good players in a successful program. Very few players come to Duke and start their freshman year. Remember, his freshman year had Thomas and Zoubek and went on to win some tournaments at the end of the year. His sophomore year he played a backup roll with Singler playing the bulk of the minutes at his slot.

Kelly has done very well considering who was in front of him. Now that it is his turn, he is filling it up.

Jim Spanarkel

johnb
11-28-2011, 01:51 PM
On a larger note, this seems like the road map for Duke's recruiting - go for the guys in the 10ish to 20ish range and get them to stay three or four years. Redick, Demarcus, Nolan, Mason, Kelly, Henderson, Scheyer, Lance, etc. Much more stable and rewarding than a Calipari-esque strategy, IMO.

I'm not sure Coach has a strategy of only taking guys in the 10-20 range. I bet he'd be willing to at least consider taking the top 2 or 3 guys who could qualify academically every year and then let the chips fall when it comes to 1 and done. Nobody has a 10-guy team of top 10 players, however, and it is important to have those glue guys who are the 4-8th best players on a team (and who at Duke were often rated 10-40), but few teams get to final fours without future NBA starters, who were--by and large--highly elite players in high school (of course, I consider a top 40 player to be pretty darn elite; has Duke football EVER successfully recruited a non-kicker in the top 40?).

roywhite
11-28-2011, 01:51 PM
On a larger note, this seems like the road map for Duke's recruiting - go for the guys in the 10ish to 20ish range and get them to stay three or four years. Redick, Demarcus, Nolan, Mason, Kelly, Henderson, Scheyer, Lance, etc. Much more stable and rewarding than a Calipari-esque strategy, IMO.

Good point. It also seems to work well when an incoming player seems like the kind of kid who might come to Duke even if he were not an athlete.
Ryan was an excellent student in high school who made a college choice based on more than just basketball considerations.

Wander
11-28-2011, 01:56 PM
(of course, I consider a top 40 player to be pretty darn elite; has Duke football EVER successfully recruited a non-kicker in the top 40?).

Vince Oghobasse? Don't remember where exactly but he was pretty highly ranked.

sagegrouse
11-28-2011, 01:57 PM
I'm not sure Coach has a strategy of only taking guys in the 10-20 range. I bet he'd be willing to at least consider taking the top 2 or 3 guys who could qualify academically every year and then let the chips fall when it comes to 1 and done. Nobody has a 10-guy team of top 10 players, however, and it is important to have those glue guys who are the 4-8th best players on a team (and who at Duke were often rated 10-40), but few teams get to final fours without future NBA starters, who were--by and large--highly elite players in high school (of course, I consider a top 40 player to be pretty darn elite; has Duke football EVER successfully recruited a non-kicker in the top 40?).

Coach K has said in the past that he will adapt to the circumstances in the NCAA and that he certainly would not rule out players that are destined to be one-and-done: Kyrie, Austin being cases in point.

sage

Faison1
11-28-2011, 02:09 PM
On a larger note, this seems like the road map for Duke's recruiting - go for the guys in the 10ish to 20ish range and get them to stay three or four years. Redick, Demarcus, Nolan, Mason, Kelly, Henderson, Scheyer, Lance, etc. Much more stable and rewarding than a Calipari-esque strategy, IMO.

That's true. That's been part of the recruiting strategy. Except that Singler, Kyrie, and Austin were all top-5 recruits. And Coach has gone hard after other top-5 recruits like Harrison Barnes, John Wall, Greg Monroe, and Kevin Love.

hq2
11-28-2011, 02:31 PM
Spanarkle started very quickly and became THE MAN in his freshman year.

Ahem, lest we forget, THE MAN that year was Tate Armstrong, who averaged about 27 points a game in the conference, including
some incredible 35 and 40 point outbursts. Spanarkel was a good player who made an immediate impact, but that year was Tate's.
Overall, Spanarkel started stronger than RK, and kept it up at least until his senior year, when he tapered off some.

Wander
11-28-2011, 02:38 PM
That's true. That's been part of the recruiting strategy. Except that Singler, Kyrie, and Austin were all top-5 recruits. And Coach has gone hard after other top-5 recruits like Harrison Barnes, John Wall, Greg Monroe, and Kevin Love.

Right. I don't mean to say that Coach K is completely unwilling to go after one-and-done type players - that's obviously not the case. Just noticing a trend in the players who have made Duke successful in the post-NBA age minimum era. I'm speaking in averages, not absolutes.

Faison1
11-28-2011, 02:55 PM
Right. I don't mean to say that Coach K is completely unwilling to go after one-and-done type players - that's obviously not the case. Just noticing a trend in the players who have made Duke successful in the post-NBA age minimum era. I'm speaking in averages, not absolutes.

Agreed. In regards to top 15-40 ranked players, I'm not sure there is another coach who has consistently gotten them to improve as much as Coach K has.

Dev11
11-28-2011, 04:00 PM
That's true. That's been part of the recruiting strategy. Except that Singler, Kyrie, and Austin were all top-5 recruits. And Coach has gone hard after other top-5 recruits like Harrison Barnes, John Wall, Greg Monroe, and Kevin Love.

I HIGHLY doubt anybody on the staff reads Scout.com and thinks "Wow, Kyrie Irving is shooting up in the rankings, let's go after him! Forget that Knight kid!" I believe it goes the other way around. On top of that, I am sure the staff wasn't reading the site in 2005 and thinking "You know, that Lance Thomas kid will probably be a great contributor as a senior on a national championship team, so we should DEFINITELY go after him harder than that Darrell Arthur kid, who will probably end up leaving early anyway." I would like to think the process is a little more subtle and complex than that.

Give the staff some credit, they have slightly more access to information than we do, and they hopefully don't have wild mood swings about who to recruit based on little changes in the rankings.

EDIT: To come back on topic, Ryan Kelly is awesome, and I was more excited about his commitment in 2008 than I was about Mason's (and not just because of their respective rankings).