PDA

View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs Michigan Pre-Game & In-Game Thread



Bob Green
11-21-2011, 08:20 PM
Next up is Michigan and their 1-3-1 zone defense in the Maui Invitational Semifinals. The Wolverines played us tough last year in the NCAA Tournament.

DuKe4LiFe#30
11-21-2011, 08:32 PM
Should be a good low scoring game they have some solid bigs some good 3 point shooters and a game changer in Hardaway jr. For some reason i really dislike the kid Smotrycz and i hope we stick it to him tomarow. Wish mitch would of waited on his decesion maybe this would of factored into it.

Duke 66
Michigan 60

basket1544
11-21-2011, 10:13 PM
Any idea which time is the Duke Michigan game? I need to set my DVR tonight.

CDu
11-21-2011, 10:16 PM
Any idea which time is the Duke Michigan game? I need to set my DVR tonight.

I'd assume the 9:30 game. But I'd say that with very little confidence.

davekay1971
11-21-2011, 10:21 PM
This is going to be a tough game, make no mistake. That's a hard defense to crack, and Michigan can score it on the other end if you're not disciplined on defense. Our guys are going to have to come out sharp and playing with focus and intensity from the opening tip-off.

DuKe4LiFe#30
11-21-2011, 10:22 PM
its at 7

Newton_14
11-21-2011, 10:38 PM
This is going to be a tough game, make no mistake. That's a hard defense to crack, and Michigan can score it on the other end if you're not disciplined on defense. Our guys are going to have to come out sharp and playing with focus and intensity from the opening tip-off.

Agree. One thing the guys will have to guard against is falling in love with the 3. That zone will look so inviting, but Michigan wants you to shoot 30 three's. We have to insure we attack the zone and get points in the paint and balance it with three's at the right time. That will be key. That said, Andre could be a key guy tomorrow. If he is on his game, he could have a big night.

1 24 90
11-21-2011, 11:04 PM
Any idea which time is the Duke Michigan game? I need to set my DVR tonight.

It is the 7 p.m. Eastern time game.

Troublemaker
11-21-2011, 11:44 PM
This feels like the de facto Maui championship game. Michigan is probably a smidge better than us at this early point in the season (although, like many others, I subscribe to the thought that Duke will improve a great deal in-season [and I also believe Michigan's just very good]). Besides PG, the Wolverines return everyone from last year's team that gave us hell in the second round, and they seem to have found a very talented replacement at point in Trey Burke. They'll be the slightly more cohesive, better-executing team at this stage. Nothing that a hot shooting night or an advantage on the offensive boards couldn't overcome though. I also like that Coach K and staff have great familiarity with Maui and its format and how to prepare for it.

stixof96
11-21-2011, 11:49 PM
If Michigan penetrates the lane like Tenn. did tonight, they will win.

DukieTiger
11-22-2011, 12:10 AM
If Michigan penetrates the lane like Tenn. did tonight, they will win.

No, because it will mean that we are gameplanning to take away the three- as we should against both Tenn. and Mich- two of the better 3pt shooting teams in the country (and most reliant upon the 3.) The key will be to force them to beat us in mid-range, rather than on 3's off the drive-and-kick- because you can almost be certain that we will press up on their shooters and make them drive past us.

To me, this game is the ultimate test for this team's mindset early in the year. Will we settle for forced shots and three's that are out of the flow of the offense? Or will we methodically try to break Michigan down and continue to keep Miles and Mason involved in the low post? Will the Plums assert their dominance on the boards- especially offensively? Or will this different style of play force them out of their comfort zones? And how will we exploit our size advantage? WILL we exploit it, or will our bigs get drawn out to the perimeter and have trouble keeping up with Michigan's undersized lineup? Is this potentially a game where we might go to a lineup of 1 big + Hairston/MG/AM + 3 guards? How much time will Quinn Cook get, and how will he and Rivers do against this 1-3-1 defense. Both guys have the requisite ability to penetrate and make things happen against this zone, but will the decision making be there?

Of course, we could shoot something crazy like 15-30 from three and just blow them out of the water. Here's hoping. :)

DukieTiger
11-22-2011, 02:16 AM
So I paid a visit to Statsheet.com tonight and hours later came out with a few observations about the team to date. Posted these on another board, figured I'd share here as well. Take these for whatever you will:


In thinking about Mason's improvement this year and his increased role on this team, I ventured over to Statsheet.com (only go there if you want to lose the next 4 hours of your life) and performed an interesting comparison- Jr year Tyler Zeller to Jr year Mase. Mason compares favorably (excepting his one achilles, that darned FT shooting- and even there, at this point he gets to the line more frequently than just about anyone. C'mon Mase, surely you can be >50% from the line!)



http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=tyler-zeller&p1=mason-plumlee&tyler-zeller=2010-2011



I also decided to run Austin Rivers' current performance against freshmen Kyrie Irving, Jason Williams, Harry Barnes (just for hype's sake, not similar players,) JJ Redick and Senior Daniel Ewing (because that was the first year Dan's usage % came close to the other guys, and because he was playing the role of a natural SG handling the ball quite a bit on a team without a pure PG in the starting lineup.) I'll let you all check it out, but Austin definitely holds his own amongst that elite company and some of his numbers are eerily similar to the other guys in various categories. Bare in mind that those guys had an entire season (ok, not Kyrie... sniffle) to grow so it's understandable that their numbers are better than Austin's. Also, those are some of the best freshmen to ever play the game (and a senior Daniel Ewing isn't bad either.) Austin is definitely holding his own.



http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?22-jason-williams=1999-2000&add=harrison-barnes&daniel-ewing=2004-2005&harrison-barnes=2010-2011&i=1&jj-redick=2002-2003&p1=austin-rivers&p2=kyrie-irving&p3=22-jason-williams&p4=jj-redick&p5=daniel-ewing



Other observations:



-Mason's fouls per game has gone down each year he has been at Duke. He's doing a great job of staying on the floor so far this year.

-Andre is playing more mpg this year, but his usage percentage and offensive efficiency is about the same (so far.) What has changed is that he is getting more time (thanks to improved defense and opportunity, I would imagine.)

-Seth is in a new role, but he is also stepping up rather significantly. Through 5 games, his usage is up 5% while all of his shooting percentages are also up, he's getting to the line more often, while also improving his #s in rebounds, assists and steals. Really, the only downside is the turnovers, but he still holds an A/TO ratio of 1.5

-Similarly, Ryan's usage is up but his efficiency is up almost across the board as well: he's shooting a better % from 2, 3 and the FT line; he's improved his rebounding efficiency (which takes PT/tempo into account.) His blocks are a little down (early) and his turnovers a little up, but overall the numbers support what I have seen with my eyes- RKelly is a player!

-Meanwhile, Miles' offensive usage is up but he has yet to match his past efficiency on the offensive end. He's getting to the line at a fantastic rate, but has regressed in his FT shooting (so has Mason.) He's getting a higher percentage of his points from the FT line, but there are more available if he can just get back to his previous career high of a 66% FT percentage (his Soph. season.) Interestingly, he is playing almost an identical MPG as he has the past 2 years. Something tells me that there is more that PlumOne has to offer, and I think he will perform better as the year goes on.



-Overall, it seems like the majority of the returning guys are ceasing the opportunity for bigger roles and putting forth better and more efficient all-around performances than they have to date in their careers. The one area where each of them has gotten worse is turnover rate, which tells me that these guys are still getting accustomed to the larger roles (read: usage %) that they are taking. I think this team will get better at valuing the ball, rebounding and applying ball pressure as the year goes on. And for the love of God, I just hope that Miles and Mason can figure out the free throw shooting thing! Otherwise, a lot of encouraging things on this team's statsheet profile to date!

MCFinARL
11-22-2011, 08:16 AM
It is the 7 p.m. Eastern time game.

Hmm, my Washington Post seems to think the game is at 2 PM Eastern time. But perhaps they forgot about the time zone. (7 PM here is, in fact 2 PM in Hawaii.)

HCheek37
11-22-2011, 08:43 AM
Yet another matchup between two programs that know each other quite well....after last year's tournament contest, I am looking forward to another great game today. Michigan lost some firepower in Darius Morris but has grown in other areas and John Beilein has this team headed in the right direction. One of the keys this evening is how Duke handles Trey Burke. Burke is a 6'1" freshmen guard who has started the year off well for the Wolverines. He has posted 13, 14 and 14 in their last 3 games while shooting 54% from the floor and 46% from three. He is a quick guard who Duke must contain especially since the focus will be keeping Novak, Douglass and Hardaway Jr. off the 3 point line.

I think tonight will be a statement game for the Devils but Michigan doesn't play a style that will let this game get out of control. This is a sweet 16 / elite 8 type matchup and should be a great early measuring stick for Duke.

I wonder if Mitch McGary will be watching tonight.

I say Duke 71-66.

slower
11-22-2011, 10:05 AM
No, because it will mean that we are gameplanning to take away the three- as we should against both Tenn. and Mich- two of the better 3pt shooting teams in the country (and most reliant upon the 3.) The key will be to force them to beat us in mid-range, rather than on 3's off the drive-and-kick- because you can almost be certain that we will press up on their shooters and make them drive past us.

To me, this game is the ultimate test for this team's mindset early in the year. Will we settle for forced shots and three's that are out of the flow of the offense? Or will we methodically try to break Michigan down and continue to keep Miles and Mason involved in the low post? Will the Plums assert their dominance on the boards- especially offensively? Or will this different style of play force them out of their comfort zones? And how will we exploit our size advantage? WILL we exploit it, or will our bigs get drawn out to the perimeter and have trouble keeping up with Michigan's undersized lineup? Is this potentially a game where we might go to a lineup of 1 big + Hairston/MG/AM + 3 guards? How much time will Quinn Cook get, and how will he and Rivers do against this 1-3-1 defense. Both guys have the requisite ability to penetrate and make things happen against this zone, but will the decision making be there?

Of course, we could shoot something crazy like 15-30 from three and just blow them out of the water. Here's hoping. :)

Seems like some folks are of the opinion that we are "letting" or "forcing" teams to beat us off the dribble/drive. And that MAY be true, but sometimes it seems to me that we're just getting beat.

I'm not in the habit of predicting outcomes, because it generally makes people look foolish. I have no idea what will happen tonight, but I do expect it to be frustrating to watch at times. Michigan definitely uglies it up, so I'm expecting some, ahem, conflict out there on the floor.

And maybe I'm in the minority, but I LIKED that Andre got upset last night. I think some internal fire is always good for this team, and I think we've got a lot of it this year. To paraphrase the great Dick Vernon from "The Breakfast Club": "You mess with the bull, you get the horns."

Saratoga2
11-22-2011, 11:01 AM
Michigan was able to stop the Memphis fast break for the most part and also greatly reduce their penetration and to some extent their 3 point shooting. The zone they use is sort of one quarter back so it can stop penetration and also is not too far away from the 3 point shooters. They are methotical and have composure so don't look for them to turn the ball over a lot nor jack up bad shots.

We have an advantage with size inside and our guards match up fairly well with theirs. I don't think Austin will be able to penetrate all that well but I do think having either Ryan or Mason at the top of the key might work. I prefer Ryan since he can pass or hit the jumper from their. We also have both Dre and Seth who can hit the 3 point shot if the zone pulls in to give them a step.

It should be interesting. We can keep a fresh defender on their point and slow them down from getting into their offense. Dre can handle their 6'5" guard best. We should be able to rebound with them or better and should bother any inside shooters.

Our free throw shooting from Miles and Mason is a drawback but the rest are solid.

I expect Duke to win this game, but I think it may be close and therefore we must execute during the end of game situation. Seth is coming along, Ryan does well and if Austin can contain his enthusiam he is also solid. Dre has gotten much better all around. Mason is good defensively but his free throw issue could make him a liability at the end of game. Coach K can do the offense/defense idea to avoid that.

Kedsy
11-22-2011, 11:04 AM
I also decided to run Austin Rivers' current performance against freshmen Kyrie Irving, Jason Williams, Harry Barnes (just for hype's sake, not similar players,) JJ Redick and Senior Daniel Ewing (because that was the first year Dan's usage % came close to the other guys, and because he was playing the role of a natural SG handling the ball quite a bit on a team without a pure PG in the starting lineup.) I'll let you all check it out, but Austin definitely holds his own amongst that elite company and some of his numbers are eerily similar to the other guys in various categories. Bare in mind that those guys had an entire season (ok, not Kyrie... sniffle) to grow so it's understandable that their numbers are better than Austin's. Also, those are some of the best freshmen to ever play the game (and a senior Daniel Ewing isn't bad either.) Austin is definitely holding his own.

Good stuff, thanks. It reinforces my opinion that Austin is doing just fine so far.

dukelifer
11-22-2011, 11:12 AM
So I paid a visit to Statsheet.com tonight and hours later came out with a few observations about the team to date. Posted these on another board, figured I'd share here as well. Take these for whatever you will:


In thinking about Mason's improvement this year and his increased role on this team, I ventured over to Statsheet.com (only go there if you want to lose the next 4 hours of your life) and performed an interesting comparison- Jr year Tyler Zeller to Jr year Mase. Mason compares favorably (excepting his one achilles, that darned FT shooting- and even there, at this point he gets to the line more frequently than just about anyone. C'mon Mase, surely you can be >50% from the line!)




Free throw shooting is such a problem for the two Plumlees- particularly Mason. This is something that you have to practice over and over again. Mason has decent form but it is not a very reliable shot. He has not figured it out. Ryan is money from the line- Mason is not. Very frustrating because this is something that can be fixed with lots of hours. That said, he has worked on his hook and footwork. Overall, Mason has shown improvement and is becoming a rebounding machine.

Kedsy
11-22-2011, 11:15 AM
Free throw shooting is such a problem for the two Plumlees- particularly Mason. This is something that you have to practice over and over again. Mason has decent form but it is not a very reliable shot. He has not figured it out. Ryan is money from the line- Mason is not. Very frustrating because this is something that can be fixed with lots of hours. That said, he has worked on his hook and footwork. Overall, Mason has shown improvement and is becoming a rebounding machine.

I've heard he practices free throw shooting a lot. I think it's at least as much in his head as in his form or lack of practice.

COYS
11-22-2011, 11:21 AM
So I paid a visit to Statsheet.com tonight and hours later came out with a few observations about the team to date. Posted these on another board, figured I'd share here as well. Take these for whatever you will:


In thinking about Mason's improvement this year and his increased role on this team, I ventured over to Statsheet.com (only go there if you want to lose the next 4 hours of your life) and performed an interesting comparison- Jr year Tyler Zeller to Jr year Mase. Mason compares favorably (excepting his one achilles, that darned FT shooting- and even there, at this point he gets to the line more frequently than just about anyone. C'mon Mase, surely you can be >50% from the line!)



http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=tyler-zeller&p1=mason-plumlee&tyler-zeller=2010-2011



I also decided to run Austin Rivers' current performance against freshmen Kyrie Irving, Jason Williams, Harry Barnes (just for hype's sake, not similar players,) JJ Redick and Senior Daniel Ewing (because that was the first year Dan's usage % came close to the other guys, and because he was playing the role of a natural SG handling the ball quite a bit on a team without a pure PG in the starting lineup.) I'll let you all check it out, but Austin definitely holds his own amongst that elite company and some of his numbers are eerily similar to the other guys in various categories. Bare in mind that those guys had an entire season (ok, not Kyrie... sniffle) to grow so it's understandable that their numbers are better than Austin's. Also, those are some of the best freshmen to ever play the game (and a senior Daniel Ewing isn't bad either.) Austin is definitely holding his own.



http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?22-jason-williams=1999-2000&add=harrison-barnes&daniel-ewing=2004-2005&harrison-barnes=2010-2011&i=1&jj-redick=2002-2003&p1=austin-rivers&p2=kyrie-irving&p3=22-jason-williams&p4=jj-redick&p5=daniel-ewing



Other observations:



-Mason's fouls per game has gone down each year he has been at Duke. He's doing a great job of staying on the floor so far this year.

-Andre is playing more mpg this year, but his usage percentage and offensive efficiency is about the same (so far.) What has changed is that he is getting more time (thanks to improved defense and opportunity, I would imagine.)

-Seth is in a new role, but he is also stepping up rather significantly. Through 5 games, his usage is up 5% while all of his shooting percentages are also up, he's getting to the line more often, while also improving his #s in rebounds, assists and steals. Really, the only downside is the turnovers, but he still holds an A/TO ratio of 1.5

-Similarly, Ryan's usage is up but his efficiency is up almost across the board as well: he's shooting a better % from 2, 3 and the FT line; he's improved his rebounding efficiency (which takes PT/tempo into account.) His blocks are a little down (early) and his turnovers a little up, but overall the numbers support what I have seen with my eyes- RKelly is a player!

-Meanwhile, Miles' offensive usage is up but he has yet to match his past efficiency on the offensive end. He's getting to the line at a fantastic rate, but has regressed in his FT shooting (so has Mason.) He's getting a higher percentage of his points from the FT line, but there are more available if he can just get back to his previous career high of a 66% FT percentage (his Soph. season.) Interestingly, he is playing almost an identical MPG as he has the past 2 years. Something tells me that there is more that PlumOne has to offer, and I think he will perform better as the year goes on.



-Overall, it seems like the majority of the returning guys are ceasing the opportunity for bigger roles and putting forth better and more efficient all-around performances than they have to date in their careers. The one area where each of them has gotten worse is turnover rate, which tells me that these guys are still getting accustomed to the larger roles (read: usage %) that they are taking. I think this team will get better at valuing the ball, rebounding and applying ball pressure as the year goes on. And for the love of God, I just hope that Miles and Mason can figure out the free throw shooting thing! Otherwise, a lot of encouraging things on this team's statsheet profile to date!

These are interesting stats. Thanks for sharing. I take a slightly different look at the Mason to Zeller comparison, though. The FT% is HUGE. The fact that Mason isn't making above 50% of his free throws means he can't even touch Zeller's offensive rating of 120 from last season. he has improved in every way and bests Zeller in rebounding percentage by a wide margin (Mason might be one of the top two or three rebounders this season. He's right there with Henson, which is impressive). Mason also has a better assist rate, which helps his O-rating. But until more of his possessions end with points at the line, his O-rating won't reach the level of Zellers.

Speaking of O-rating, Curry's is off the charts good, so far. He's had some conspicuous turnovers (although, I think we might be overlooking how well he managed the game at the end last night because of that one silly backcourt violation down the stretch), but otherwise he's giving us 127+ points per 100 possessions so far. That's pretty incredible, frankly, and is at Scheyer-like levels (and Kyrie, too, although Kyrie only played 11 games). You could argue that it's a fluke for the five games, but he had an O-rating of 123 last year, which was pretty awesome. (To put this into perspective, UNC's heralded Marshall has an O-rating of just 96.4 or less than a point per possession so far, this season). That he's improved his efficiency while simultaneously increasing his usage is a great sign in the early season. Much like Scheyer, a lot of what he gives to the team isn't flashy, but we do well when he's got the ball in his hands. He'll be in for a big test tonight against Michigan's zone. If he can manage the offense well, it will be an even better sign that Curry is a solid point guard.

Kelly, on the other hand, has an absolutely insane rating of 135. I doubt he stays this high all year, but our eyes are not lying to us. Kelly looks like he's been the best player on offense, and in fact, he has been. He can score in a variety of ways. I'd like to see us use Kelly's talents to help get inside the zone for easy mid range jumpers, tonight. Between our three point shooters and Kelly's outside-in ability, we have a lot of creative ways to beat the zone as long as we keep the ball moving and aren't afraid to get inside the zone.

roywhite
11-22-2011, 11:21 AM
Free throw shooting is such a problem for the two Plumlees- particularly Mason. This is something that you have to practice over and over again. Mason has decent form but it is not a very reliable shot. He has not figured it out. Ryan is money from the line- Mason is not. Very frustrating because this is something that can be fixed with lots of hours. That said, he has worked on his hook and footwork. Overall, Mason has shown improvement and is becoming a rebounding machine.

Yes, it can be fixed or greatly improved.
Don't agree that Mason has decent form.
In short, he has too many moving parts, which makes it hard to repeat a regular set of motions.
Notice for example that he sometimes bends his torso backwards (or occasionally leans forward).
Just my observations.

Getting to 60% would be significant at this point...and important for team success.

CDu
11-22-2011, 11:40 AM
Yes, it can be fixed or greatly improved.
Don't agree that Mason has decent form.
In short, he has too many moving parts, which makes it hard to repeat a regular set of motions.
Notice for example that he sometimes bends his torso backwards (or occasionally leans forward).
Just my observations.

Getting to 60% would be significant at this point...and important for team success.

Agree with this. Getting to 60% could mean an additional 2-3 ppg for Mason (when you factor in missed 1-and-1 opportunities). That is very relevant to the team's chances in close games.

UrinalCake
11-22-2011, 11:48 AM
Agree with this. Getting to 60% could mean an additional 2-3 ppg for Mason (when you factor in missed 1-and-1 opportunities). That is very relevant to the team's chances in close games.

When Mason goes to the line I pretty much expect him to hit 1 of 2.

Kedsy
11-22-2011, 12:25 PM
When Mason goes to the line I pretty much expect him to hit 1 of 2.

Hey, I'm rooting for 1 of 2. If only he were that good. Unfortunately, so far this season he's only hitting 38% of his free throws. And he leads our team in free throw attempts, which only compounds the problem.

jamesfrommaiden
11-22-2011, 12:43 PM
:confused: I guess there are reasons to be concerned about tonight, but I am a little surprised by a general sense of worry about the game. I know how tough the tourney game was, but that was last year. I don't think it has any bearing at all on this match up. Michigan is not the same team, they are good, but there not the same. Duke is much different from last year as we all know. I am not worried about what the Wolverines are going to do or try to do. If Duke executes their gameplan and imposes there will the Blue Devils will win. Regardless of what defense the play against. I hope and pray that Michigan dares the Devils to take thirty or so threes. Please do. A good game, I see the Devils winning by seven or eight.
LETS GO DUKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-bdbd
11-22-2011, 12:58 PM
Yet another matchup between two programs that know each other quite well....after last year's tournament contest, I am looking forward to another great game today. Michigan lost some firepower in Darius Morris but has grown in other areas and John Beilein has this team headed in the right direction. One of the keys this evening is how Duke handles Trey Burke. Burke is a 6'1" freshmen guard who has started the year off well for the Wolverines. He has posted 13, 14 and 14 in their last 3 games while shooting 54% from the floor and 46% from three. He is a quick guard who Duke must contain especially since the focus will be keeping Novak, Douglass and Hardaway Jr. off the 3 point line.

I think tonight will be a statement game for the Devils but Michigan doesn't play a style that will let this game get out of control. This is a sweet 16 / elite 8 type matchup and should be a great early measuring stick for Duke.

I wonder if Mitch McGary will be watching tonight.

I say Duke 71-66.

Mitch WHO?

Duke-Mich game is at 7PM EST, with the 9:30 (late) game being UCLA vs. KA. That's from ESPN.

The fact that Mich gave Duke a surprisingly good game in the NCAAT this past March helps, but the real history goes back to the Laettner era and repeatedly beating the (not-so-fab) Five. After that self-serving ESPN special on the Fab-5, recently, produced by one of the aforementioned Fab-5'ers, I will take great satisfaction in a big win tonight.

Hardaway could pose problems for us. Gotta stop their penetration, while not giving up the easy 3's... I think we have an advatage inside, and in general depth. Will be interesting. Good chance to avenge a recent recruiting loss and return them to their proper "place."

Go Duke!:cool:

Billy Dat
11-22-2011, 01:12 PM
:confused: I guess there are reasons to be concerned about tonight, but I am a little surprised by a general sense of worry about the game. I know how tough the tourney game was, but that was last year. I don't think it has any bearing at all on this match up. Michigan is not the same team, they are good, but there not the same. Duke is much different from last year as we all know. I am not worried about what the Wolverines are going to do or try to do. If Duke executes their gameplan and imposes there will the Blue Devils will win. Regardless of what defense the play against. I hope and pray that Michigan dares the Devils to take thirty or so threes. Please do. A good game, I see the Devils winning by seven or eight.
LETS GO DUKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think there are a few unique aspects of Michigan that are contributing to the hang wringing, aside from the tough game we had with them in the NCAAs.

-I didn't see last night's Michigan game, but they apparently flummoxed Memphis with constantly switching defenses - 1-3-1 and 2-3. Teams that play good zone are tough when you've got time to prepare, and even tougher when you've got no time to prepare.

-According to what I read, they do a great job spacing the floor to set up their 3-point shooting game which they compliment with hard cuts through the D for slashing opportunities and/or kick outs. Said more simply, they run a nice, disciplined, highly-effective and efficient offense which often tries to put up 3 to your 2.

I think we've got better players, especially on the front line, but it may be hard to press that advantage against a defense we aren't used to.

tele
11-22-2011, 01:43 PM
Pure conjecture on my part, but in addition to out scoring michigan from three range, I'd like to see Mason running the baseline against the 1-3-1, and Kelly flashing into the lane against the 2-3. Duke-Mich, Kansas-UCLA! Gotta love Maui!

CDu
11-22-2011, 01:44 PM
Michigan will be a tough matchup. They'll spread the floor typically with four guys on the perimeter (one of their bigs is more of a Kelly-like "stretch 4") and attack off the dribble. They'll kick out to shooters.

Hardaway and Burke are very good off the dribble and will be difficult to contain. Smotrycz is a good shooter for a big man and can put it on the floor a bit too. Novak is feisty and a good rebounder for a wing. But really, it comes down to preventing Hardaway and Burke from creating off the dribble. The rest of their offense is pretty pedestrian. They've only topped 60 twice this year, and that's not just a function of playing at a deliberate pace.

Where they might give us a test is on the defensive end. They're very well organized defensively. They don't play exclusively in the 1-3-1 zone, but they will play it a far amount. And they'll switch it up and go with a more typical 2-3 zone as well. And it's worked for them (they haven't allowed more than 61 points this year). We'll need to be patient in attacking the zone and finding good shots rather than settling for bad 3s.

We should win. They might have the best individual player right now, but I think we're better at players 2-9. The key will be not letting their two playmakers turn their lesser players into stars.

Bluedog
11-22-2011, 01:47 PM
I'm definitely concerned about the game tonight and could easily see a loss, but either way, we'll certainly grow as a team. Michigan poses a lot of unique challenges - they only lost one starter from last year's team and we saw how much trouble they gave us. Thus, they've been largely playing together with a similar style for quite some time, whereas this Duke team is young and lost three starters from that game last year. Michigan gets a lot of nice back door cuts, which lead to easy buckets, and has great defensive switching in their zone. In addition, their outside shooters can really stroke it from three. If they are feeling it from downtown, we could be in for a rough night. I see this game as similar to ones that have caused us problems in the past. While Michigan isn't particularly athletic, I could see this game blowing open like it did against St. John's last season, Gtown two seasons ago, etc. unless we play very well. But I think a fast paced up and down transition game definitely favors us, so I'd like to see us try to use that style of play, but Michigan's D makes it difficult to do so. I see a few key aspects of the game to come out with the "W."

1.) Attacking the zone - who can do it? Michigan's zone often leaves the mid-range jumper susceptible and I believe Seth is our best player to get and make that kind of shot. Michigan doesn't have the most athletic group (except Hardaway), so I could see some pump fakes form Seth and then step ins just inside the three point line, getting that open bucket or some high screen and roll action from Kelly. Driving all the way to the hole with Austin is probably not going to lead to easy buckets as the big guys on Michigan have great defensive spacing and really know how to pack it in there and effective help side D. Open threes are also hard to come by with Michigan's D typically, but Andre has really impressed me with his movement without the ball this season (almost Redick-like), so perhaps he'd get some open looks. I think driving with Austin and Seth and then kicking it out to Andre/Kelly for 3s is also an opportunity. I really just don't see Austin being able to get all the way to the rack and see midrange jumpers and kickouts as our best option unless Mason can make some post moves, but I honestly think that will be difficult. I expect Mason will get a lot of boards and putbacks, but I'm personally not that confident with Mason getting his points on the block, especially with Michigan likely doubling up on him in certain circumstances.

2.) Defending the three - this really will be a key to the game as Michigan thrives from three-point land and if they're falling, things can change in a hurry. We defended three well against TN, and actually didn't give them that many open looks, but Michigan's offensive is certainly a different animal. Sometimes Michigan is on fire and sometimes, things aren't falling, so there's certainly some luck involved as some of Michigan's players are streaky shooters - but they definitely have a fair number of shooters so our players will have to play on the perimeter which could lead us susceptible to ...

3.) Stopping backdoor cuts - Based on what I've seen, Michigan gets a lot of easy buckets with solid, smart basketball giving their big guys open layins down low. They have good spacing and screening action and are just a fundamentally sound basketball team. They certainly won't "wow" you with their high flying alley-oops, but they proved they can get it done against a quality team like Memphis. We CANNOT give up easy buckets and must make them earn it. Obviously, this is true for all opponents, but particular against Michigan where they rely less on the one-on-one than other teams.

4.) Containing Hardaway Jr. - Obviously, he's their best player and scorer. I expect we'll see some Thornton on him just to disrupt the flow of their offense a bit, but for the most part, it will be somebody else's job to defend him. We'll also need some helpside D to contain him and make other players beat us.

5.) Rebounding - I really think we need to win the rebounding battle to win this game, and I'm confident the Plumlees and Kelly can do that for us. Michigan really fights for the loose balls and has some size up front, but so do we. Second chance opportunities could certainly be the difference in this game. Especially, when those offensive boards and kickouts lead to open 3s which Curry/Dawkins/Rivers/Kelly can all hit.

I'm confident our players will play hard, and I believe we can certainly win the game, but it's definitely not a gimme. Michigan presents a unique challenge and we only had one day to prepare which is tough against schemes that Beilein shows.

Let's go Duke!

CDu
11-22-2011, 01:50 PM
-According to what I read, they do a great job spacing the floor to set up their 3-point shooting game which they compliment with hard cuts through the D for slashing opportunities and/or kick outs. Said more simply, they run a nice, disciplined, highly-effective and efficient offense which often tries to put up 3 to your 2.

I'd agree with everything except for the efficient part. They haven't been terribly efficient offensively this year. They haven't been terrible on offense, but they haven't been all that efficient.

They do space the floor well and they do attack hard off the dribble and set up layups or kickouts. But they haven't shot it at a very high success rate.


I think we've got better players, especially on the front line, but it may be hard to press that advantage against a defense we aren't used to.

Completely agree with this. They may or may not have the best individual player in Hardaway. But it's close. And we're better at the next several players.

The question will be whether their system/organization can make us play worse than we are and whether Hardaway/Burke can make their role players look better than they are.

CDu
11-22-2011, 01:53 PM
4.) Containing Hardaway Jr. - Obviously, he's their best player and scorer. I expect we'll see some Thornton on him just to disrupt the flow of their offense a bit, but for the most part, it will be somebody else's job to defend him. We'll also need some helpside D to contain him and make other players beat us.

I agree with a lot of what you said, but I'd be surprised if Curry is primarily on Hardaway. He's a taller guard, so I'd expect one of our taller perimeter guys (Rivers or Dawkins) to draw that assignment. I'd expect Curry to guard their PG (Burke) primarily.

Bluedog
11-22-2011, 02:00 PM
I agree with a lot of what you said, but I'd be surprised if Curry is primarily on Hardaway. He's a taller guard, so I'd expect one of our taller perimeter guys (Rivers or Dawkins) to draw that assignment. I'd expect Curry to guard their PG (Burke) primarily.

Yeah, I edited my post after noticing that - my mistake. I agree with you. :) I think it will be a tough assignment for Rivers or Dawkins, but I'm sure they're up for the challenge.

Kedsy
11-22-2011, 02:01 PM
This is the fourth time Miles has played against Michigan and their system. Hopefully, as captain, he can help prepare his teammates for what's coming. Especially since the other six returnees also played against Michigan last March. We may or may not win, but the lack of preparation for their system shouldn't be as critical as it would be if we'd never seen it before.

MChambers
11-22-2011, 02:01 PM
I agree with a lot of what you said, but I'd be surprised if Curry is primarily on Hardaway. He's a taller guard, so I'd expect one of our taller perimeter guys (Rivers or Dawkins) to draw that assignment. I'd expect Curry to guard their PG (Burke) primarily.

I bet Hardaway is better prepared for the crossover move this year:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xhwaul_nolan-smith-killer-crossover-on-tim-hardaway-jr_sport

dukeballboy88
11-22-2011, 02:57 PM
Im not feeling Michigan as much as some people on here. Yes they beat a Memphis team that is pretty good but if you have watched Memphis play any, the coach just rolls the ball out there. A 1-3-1 zone is a tough defense for a concept like that. Duke can exploit this defense with a player like Rivers because he will be able to attack the gaps and draw help from the wings wich will leave a hot Dawkins or Curry open. This could be trouble for Michigan if we clean the glass because we are going to get open looks.

Im thinking we jump out to a big lead and go in the half up 10 or more. We will cool off in the 2nd and grind out a victory 71-62.

CDu
11-22-2011, 03:07 PM
Im not feeling Michigan as much as some people on here. Yes they beat a Memphis team that is pretty good but if you have watched Memphis play any, the coach just rolls the ball out there. A 1-3-1 zone is a tough defense for a concept like that. Duke can exploit this defense with a player like Rivers because he will be able to attack the gaps and draw help from the wings wich will leave a hot Dawkins or Curry open. This could be trouble for Michigan if we clean the glass because we are going to get open looks.

I'd actually say Rivers is one of the question marks against a well-disciplined zone rather than a key to exploitation. He has a bit of a habit of not seeing the open man when driving. So while I'm sure he could get into the lane against a zone, I'm much less confident that he'll be useful in the drive-and-dish game.

Also, dribble penetration isn't usually the way to beat a zone. Quick, organized ball movement is. If you can move to open spots and successfully feed it quickly, you can get a zone to shift out of position. Dribbling into the zone actually plays to the advantage of the zone (unless you're very good at the pass part).

MChambers
11-22-2011, 03:19 PM
How much does Michigan play the 1-3-1? My memory is that the Wolverines had gotten away from that defense in recent years. I think they used once or twice against us last year, during the closing moments, and it was effective, but mostly as a change and a surprise. Did they play the 1-3-1 much against Memphis?

feldspar
11-22-2011, 06:23 PM
Any update on tipoff time?

Indoor66
11-22-2011, 06:32 PM
Any update on tipoff time?

As of the moment there is 8:43 left in the Georgetown/Chaminade game 69-49 GT.

dcar1985
11-22-2011, 06:46 PM
As of the moment there is 8:43 left in the Georgetown/Chaminade game 69-49 GT.

Game is on ESPN not ESPN2 just so your not looking for it after the conclusion of the GT/Chaminade game

DukeBlueHeart4
11-22-2011, 07:09 PM
ESPN has tip off at 7:25.

1 24 90
11-22-2011, 07:12 PM
The scroll said tipoff at 7:19. I think they may join coverage at 7:15.

Gthoma2a
11-22-2011, 07:28 PM
With the exception of Austin's crazy drive that one time, decent start to the game for us.

I am not happy Mason missed the free throw, but Dre did make it 3 our way.

Gthoma2a
11-22-2011, 07:33 PM
We aren't getting much done with Thornton in the lineup right now. Offense has one less threat, minus our sharpshooter (Dawkins) and he got stuck on a switch down low leaving a man open for 3. Not blaming him, but this lineup isn't working against Michigan right now. Check that, good shot at the last second there.

Good thing they saw that deflection.

Gthoma2a
11-22-2011, 07:40 PM
That was awesome by Cook! I am impressed with our rebounding, too. We are looking like we have a team that can do the things we did in 2010 (Shoot, rebound and defend).

Greg_Newton
11-22-2011, 08:14 PM
Best first half we've played all year by far.

Would be nice if we could get some offense from Mason in the second, though. We got a bit one-dimensional towards the end, in that the ball almost exclusively in the guards' hands.

And WHY in the world is Kelly not posting up 6'4" Nick Novak? Isn't that just a no brainer?

uh_no
11-22-2011, 08:15 PM
hands down best overall half of the season thus far.

_Gary
11-22-2011, 08:22 PM
Yikes. Not the way to start the 2nd half. :(

uh_no
11-22-2011, 08:23 PM
Yikes. Not the way to start the 2nd half. :(

michigan was probably angry after we held them to 22.....bet that doesn't happen again this half

_Gary
11-22-2011, 08:30 PM
Michigan has come out ultra aggressive on both sides of the ball and it's paying off for them. We are going to have to pick up our intensity a bit to match theirs.

_Gary
11-22-2011, 08:37 PM
Can someone tell Michigan it's okay to miss once in a while. Sheesh!

uh_no
11-22-2011, 08:41 PM
Can someone tell Michigan it's okay to miss once in a while. Sheesh!

I think they're saying the same thing about our 70% 3pt shooting....andre needs to watch out....he makes a couple and then takes some more than questionable ones....gotta take good shots whether you're hot or not

also miles putting in a very good game with mason picking up some fouls

_Gary
11-22-2011, 08:44 PM
I think they're saying the same thing about our 70% 3pt shooting....andre needs to watch out....he makes a couple and then takes some more than questionable ones....gotta take good shots whether you're hot or not

also miles putting in a very good game with mason picking up some fouls

Can't argue with that. I do think we've moved the ball well though and had great looks from 3 for the most part. So it's not like we are hitting ridiculous shots.

uh_no
11-22-2011, 08:46 PM
Can't argue with that. I do think we've moved the ball well though and had great looks from 3 for the most part. So it's not like we are hitting ridiculous shots.

yup on the most part.....though there have been some drives with some ridiculous throw it up (like austin's right there) which you can't fault when either the shot clock's expiring or you got fouled

_Gary
11-22-2011, 08:55 PM
Andre can hit some great, and critical shots, but he also has a knack for taking bad, quick shots when we have a lead late that almost always seems to lead to an easy bucket down on the other end. He just did it again.

uh_no
11-22-2011, 08:58 PM
Andre can hit some great, and critical shots, but he also has a knack for taking bad, quick shots when we have a lead late that almost always seems to lead to an easy bucket down on the other end. He just did it again.

Austin too has taken a couple ~25'+.....a bit outside of the "good shot" range.....except for a few individuals

Gthoma2a
11-22-2011, 08:59 PM
We need to focus on closing this thing out. The key is focus. We can't think that they are going to just give up.

_Gary
11-22-2011, 09:00 PM
Austin too has taken a couple ~25'+.....a bit outside of the "good shot" range.....except for a few individuals

No doubt about it.

I hate trying to nurse a lead, especially against a zone like this because it's so hard to know when to attack and when to pull it back. You want to milk the clock but you don't want to be hoisting up long shots either.

diveonthefloor
11-22-2011, 09:00 PM
Guess Austin missed the memo:


DIVE ON THE FLOOR!!!

diveonthefloor
11-22-2011, 09:02 PM
I cannot believe Michigan is letting Mason touch the ball without intentionally fouling him.
Wow.

_Gary
11-22-2011, 09:02 PM
I cannot believe Michigan is letting Mason touch the ball without intentionally fouling him.
Wow.

They've been called for so few fouls this second half it wouldn't matter because Duke isn't even in the bonus yet.

snowdenscold
11-22-2011, 09:02 PM
10 point lead with 3 minutes to go... ideal time for stall ball (not sarcastic).

jacone21
11-22-2011, 09:03 PM
Guess Austin missed the memo:


DIVE ON THE FLOOR!!!

Now I have a rug burn on my chin. Thanks, dude.

_Gary
11-22-2011, 09:08 PM
And there goes Andre doing it yet again! I'm telling you, he has a horrible knack for shooting too quick when we are nursing a lead, and it inevitably ends up being a quick two for the opposition. Ugh.

diveonthefloor
11-22-2011, 09:08 PM
If you're gonna milk the clock, go ahead and use the whole dang shot clock!

karmacoma
11-22-2011, 09:09 PM
:eek::eek::eek:

_Gary
11-22-2011, 09:11 PM
If Tyler can hit two, we've got it.

karmacoma
11-22-2011, 09:13 PM
:eek::eek::eek:

Austin and Tyler clutch from the stripe. Should be enough for the W. But yikes, Michigan dropped 46 on us this half!

diveonthefloor
11-22-2011, 09:13 PM
Keep looking at the way Hardaway has played this half and thinking to myself: "Is that Kyrie Irving?"

snowdenscold
11-22-2011, 09:16 PM
Austin and Tyler clutch from the stripe. Should be enough for the W. But yikes, Michigan dropped 46 on us this half!

49 and counting...

Edit: 53, ouch.

basket1544
11-22-2011, 09:19 PM
Good grief this last minute is taking forever!