MBB: Duke vs Michigan State Pre-Game & In-Game Thread

[loldevilz]

This will be the first game where playing a 3 guard lineup could really hurt us. Draymond Green had like 15 boards last game from the 3 spot. Hopefully Gbinije gets some run trying to guard him.

[Newton_14]

The other thread is more about which Duke Alums/Fans are attending and where to meet up. Did not want that thread to get messed up with pre-game analysis so use this thread for the analysis please.

Should be a great test for our guys. Looking forward to see how they perform on a neutral court in a big time setting!

[devildeac]

The other thread is more about which Duke Alums/Fans are attending and where to meet up. Did not want that thread to get messed up with pre-game analysis so use this thread for the analysis please.

Should be a great test for our guys. Looking forward to see how they perform on a neutral court in a big time setting!

Neutral court? Don't you mean "Cameron North?";)

[Newton_14]

Neutral court? Don't you mean "Cameron North?";)

So say the haters for sure! I suspect there will be a few folks there wearing Pantone 287 and cheering loudly for good guys! Hopefully we will pack the place and give our guys the vibe!

[DukieInBrasil]

There's a nice little tradition brewing between Duke and MSU.

Against MSU, i'll be looking for the Plumlees/Kelly response to playing bigger, better more physical post players. Also, will obviously be looking at the ability of our guards to defend as well as how well they generate offense. We don't really have much going on in the way of wings. Other than D. Green, i don't know much about this iteration of the Sparties, but an Izzo-led team is bound to play tough D and be patient on O, so this game will be mostly about concentration and focus for us.

Interesting side-note will be to see how Duke handles MSU relative to UNC. Nice little corollary, UNC was down early to UNC-A but pulled away to win by only 16. They did travel cross-country and arrived in Asheville at an odd hour, however Duke played less than 24 hours after a tight game with Belmont and won by 41. Both teams had substantial height advantages on their 2nd opponents. Marshall racked up a sick 16 assists, albeit he was passing to HenZeller down low over shorter guys.

[Kedsy]

This will be the first game where playing a 3 guard lineup could really hurt us. Draymond Green had like 15 boards last game from the 3 spot. Hopefully Gbinije gets some run trying to guard him.

I'm not so confident that Mike G can handle a senior who had 18 rebounds against UNC (and outweighs Mike by 25 pounds), any more than anybody else on our team can. I'm not sure Green really played the "3 spot," either. The other starting forward for Michigan State against UNC was Branden Dawson (freshman, 6'6" 215) who is shorter and lighter than Green (6'7" 230). Both forwards, however, are taller and heavier than Andre or Austin, so I see where you're coming from, but I don't see that freshman Gbinije is the answer, unfortunately.

On the other hand, whoever is playing the "4" for Michigan State is going to have their hands full with Mason or Ryan. Seems like we might just be trading mismatches there. From a rebounding perspective, Michigan State outrebounded UNC 42 to 31, while still losing the game by 12 points.

[Kedsy]

Against MSU, i'll be looking for the Plumlees/Kelly response to playing bigger, better more physical post players.

Except based on the heights and weights, Michigan State's frontcourt players are not bigger than Miles, Mason, or Ryan. Their starting center is 6'10" 240 (vs. Miles 6/10" 245). Not sure which is their PF, but their starting forwards are 6'7" 230 and 6'6" 215, both smaller than Mason (6'10" 235) or Ryan (6'11" 230). Granted, Michigan State's backup center is 6'9" 270, so he sounds bigger, although not taller. I haven't seen enough of Michigan State to say whether their guys are better than ours (as you say) but as well as our guys are playing I have my doubts (except for Green, who may be better). Knowing they play on Michigan State, I agree with you they're probably more physical.

[duke09hms]

First real test for the bigs coming up! Let's see if we can put that "soft Duke" label to sleep. I'm looking for some toughness and aggressiveness from Miles and Mason to set the tone. Do not back down guys - channel the ZOUBS!!!

It would be a great statement game for us if we can match MSU's intensity on the boards and defend the basket. Let's GO DUKE!

[Newton_14]

I'm not so confident that Mike G can handle a senior who had 18 rebounds against UNC (and outweighs Mike by 25 pounds), any more than anybody else on our team can. I'm not sure Green really played the "3 spot," either. The other starting forward for Michigan State against UNC was Branden Dawson (freshman, 6'6" 215) who is shorter and lighter than Green (6'7" 230). Both forwards, however, are taller and heavier than Andre or Austin, so I see where you're coming from, but I don't see that freshman Gbinije is the answer, unfortunately.

On the other hand, whoever is playing the "4" for Michigan State is going to have their hands full with Mason or Ryan. Seems like we might just be trading mismatches there. From a rebounding perspective, Michigan State outrebounded UNC 42 to 31, while still losing the game by 12 points.

I am starting to believe that Mason is a better rebounder than anyone wearing light blue. Miles is working hard to grab more boards as is Kelly. It will be interesting to see who wins the rebound battle in this game. Green will be a problem and I am interested to see who K assigns to him. I suspect Mason to start with, and then Kelly. I can't see us trying to defend him with Austin or Andre which means it will get interesting when Tyler subs in for Andre. But like you say, that works both ways. Can you see green trying to guard Andre? Izzo has issues there as well.

[uh_no]

Except based on the heights and weights, Michigan State's frontcourt players are not bigger than Miles, Mason, or Ryan. Their starting center is 6'10" 240 (vs. Miles 6/10" 245). Not sure which is their PF, but their starting forwards are 6'7" 230 and 6'6" 215, both smaller than Mason (6'10" 235) or Ryan (6'11" 230). Granted, Michigan State's backup center is 6'9" 270, so he sounds bigger, although not taller. I haven't seen enough of Michigan State to say whether their guys are better than ours (as you say) but as well as our guys are playing I have my doubts (except for Green, who may be better). Knowing they play on Michigan State, I agree with you they're probably more physical.

I think his comparators "better and more physical" were in relation to guys that the plumlees/kelly have played against thus far this season, not in relation to the plumlees/kelly themselves, in which case, the OP is correct that they are the best and most physical guys that we'll have seen so far this year.

[duke09hms]

Can you see green trying to guard Andre? Izzo has issues there as well.

Depends on which Andre shows up. If it's the Andre we've seen for most of his career, well it's not too hard for Green to just stand out by the 3 pt. line. If Andre shows good movement w/o the ball and any driving ability . . . then Coach K has a big new weapon to work with.

[Kedsy]

I think his comparators "better and more physical" were in relation to guys that the plumlees/kelly have played against thus far this season, not in relation to the plumlees/kelly themselves, in which case, the OP is correct that they are the best and most physical guys that we'll have seen so far this year.

Ah, that makes more sense. My bad. Or in the immortal words of Emily Litella, "Nevermind."

[dukemsu]

MSU played the Heels really well except for one key 5 minute stretch. That stretch was when their freshman Branden Dawson, a 6'6" kid who was going straight at Barnes and not faring poorly (and talking all kinds of trash) slipped on that ridiculous logo at midcourt and left the game. The Heels also got MSU in foul trouble and went on a run. State had a terrible time shooting, which was in part due to the setting, but this is not a good shooting team to begin with.

MSU will give Duke matchup problems on the baseline as they are back to the maniacal Izzo rebounding of their vintage teams. However, the Duke backcourt will likely torch Appling and Wood from beyond the arc, though Appling is a solid on-ball defender and will give Austin some trouble with his physicality.

Unless Duke has a really poor night shooting the ball, I think it's a mirror result-MSU keeps it close for awhile, wins the rebounding war, but is limited by its offensive troubles and the result is a 10-12 Duke victory for K's 903rd.

dukemsu

[Newton_14]

Depends on which Andre shows up. If it's the Andre we've seen for most of his career, well it's not too hard for Green to just stand out by the 3 pt. line. If Andre shows good movement w/o the ball and any driving ability . . . then Coach K has a big new weapon to work with.

Yikes! I got my A's mixed up there. I meant to type Austin and somehow typed Andre instead. I agree with your point. Andre will have to take advantage and move to exploit the matchup. If he floats around the line, Green will not have any issues.

Austin, however, just needs to be himself. Green should tie his shoes and shorts up real tight if he finds himself attempting to guard Austin.

[OldPhiKap]

Izzo is an outstanding coach and he has a good team this year. Should be a fun game, and a good measuring stick of where we are.

Go Duke!

[Kedsy]

That stretch was when their freshman Branden Dawson, a 6'6" kid who was going straight at Barnes and not fairing poorly (and talking all kinds of trash) slipped on that ridiculous logo at midcourt and left the game.

Back to the original question, is Dawson too big for Andre to handle? Or Austin? If not, it seems to make sense to put Mason on Green and then I'm not terribly worried about getting killed too badly on the boards. If Dawson's too big for Austin, it will be more difficult to play the Tyler/Seth/Austin or Quinn/Seth/Austin lineups we played at times in the first two games.

On the other hand, I saw that Appling is listed at 6'1". If he's guarding Austin and Austin can get just a little space, he should be able to shoot over him, right?

[dukemsu]

Back to the original question, is Dawson too big for Andre to handle? Or Austin? If not, it seems to make sense to put Mason on Green and then I'm not terribly worried about getting killed too badly on the boards. If Dawson's too big for Austin, it will be more difficult to play the Tyler/Seth/Austin or Quinn/Seth/Austin lineups we played at times in the first two games.

On the other hand, I saw that Appling is listed at 6'1". If he's guarding Austin and Austin can get just a little space, he should be able to shoot over him, right?

Dawson is too big for Dawkins unless he's in foul trouble and loses his aggressiveness. He's a full 6'6" and built like a free safety. Dawkins has speed on him, though.

Green will likely be matched up by Mason or Miles for most of the game. Izzo may try to drag Green outside some on offense, but he spends most of his time facilitating the offense from the high post. The best things he does offensively are passing the ball and crashing boards. One of the better rebounders anywhere.

Appling has a height issue against Rivers, but is a great ball-denial defender. Unless Austin is bringing it up the floor, Appling may be able to keep him from catching the ball where he wants it. In a one-on-one battle, though, yes, Austin can shoot over him. Appling may be able to keep him out of the lane some.

dukemsu

[DukieInBrasil]

Except based on the heights and weights, Michigan State's frontcourt players are not bigger than Miles, Mason, or Ryan. Their starting center is 6'10" 240 (vs. Miles 6/10" 245). Not sure which is their PF, but their starting forwards are 6'7" 230 and 6'6" 215, both smaller than Mason (6'10" 235) or Ryan (6'11" 230). Granted, Michigan State's backup center is 6'9" 270, so he sounds bigger, although not taller. I haven't seen enough of Michigan State to say whether their guys are better than ours (as you say) but as well as our guys are playing I have my doubts (except for Green, who may be better). Knowing they play on Michigan State, I agree with you they're probably more physical.
I was referring to bigger and better than the guys they've dominated so far. I didn't do a good job of making that clear.

[-bdbd]

MSU played the Heels really well except for one key 5 minute stretch. That stretch was when their freshman Branden Dawson, a 6'6" kid who was going straight at Barnes and not faring poorly (and talking all kinds of trash) slipped on that ridiculous logo at midcourt and left the game. The Heels also got MSU in foul trouble and went on a run. State had a terrible time shooting, which was in part due to the setting, but this is not a good shooting team to begin with.

MSU will give Duke matchup problems on the baseline as they are back to the maniacal Izzo rebounding of their vintage teams. However, the Duke backcourt will likely torch Appling and Wood from beyond the arc, though Appling is a solid on-ball defender and will give Austin some trouble with his physicality.

Unless Duke has a really poor night shooting the ball, I think it's a mirror result-MSU keeps it close for awhile, wins the rebounding war, but is limited by its offensive troubles and the result is a 10-12 Duke victory for K's 903rd.

dukemsu

Kedsy: ...Michigan State outrebounded UNC 42 to 31, while still losing the game (to NC@CH) by 12 points.


I dunno DukeMSU .... we better win by at least 12, or we'll be hearing about all day Wed. around all the water coolers in the state of North Carolina....;)

[Dukeface88]

Dawson is too big for Dawkins unless he's in foul trouble and loses his aggressiveness. He's a full 6'6" and built like a free safety. Dawkins has speed on him, though.

Are you saying that Dawson has a size advantage or that you don't think Dawkins (or rivers) can cover him at all? Because I'm not sure we have a better alternative; I don't expect Silent G or Murph to understand the defense as well as Andre yet.

Speaking of Alex, I've heard he was held out of the last couple of games due to an injury. Anyone know if he'll be able to play in this one?

[MCFinARL]

Ah, that makes more sense. My bad. Or in the immortal words of Emily Litella, "Nevermind."

And what's wrong with violins on television anyway?

[Saratoga2]

If the game is physical, the Plumlees will need to make foul shots. We know Kelly can but the Plumlees can be hacked without MSU paying much of a penalty. That is a real weakness for the Plumlees and the team. It would seem that they could be improved through concentration and practice. Mason's form needs to be improved to get an arc on the ball.

No body mentioned Josh as a viable alternative in guarding the 6'6" guy. He clearly has the height and strength to do it and showed a lot of energy against Presbyterian. Maybe he isn't really quick enough for the 3 but he certainly can present some alternative defense in the game.

[gumbomoop]

Back to the original question, is Dawson too big for Andre to handle? Or Austin?.... If Dawson's too big for Austin, it will be more difficult to play the Tyler/Seth/Austin or Quinn/Seth/Austin lineups we played at times in the first two games.


Dawson is too big for Dawkins unless he's in foul trouble and loses his aggressiveness. He's a full 6'6" and built like a free safety.

Tomorrow night's game will be an early test of an issue that has been debated quite a bit on EK since the end of last season: can Duke in 2011-'12 match up with the traditional SF/3.

The issue has been formulated and debated in several ways. Those who say that Duke will have trouble at the SF/3 on D tend to discuss lineups in terms of frontcourt, wings, and backcourt; whereas others tend to use the terms interior [inside, bigs] and perimeter. I am in the latter group, as it has seemed to me that college ball has been moving toward 3-guard [perimeter] lineups as the default. In terms of the traditional 1-5 numbering system, many college teams actually play a PG/1, two wings [two 2's], and two inside guys [usually, two 4's, one of whom is perhaps a stretch-4].

Taking this second view, I have argued, in response to those who are concerned that Duke can't guard the athletic SF/3's, that Duke won't face many such players. Since this concern about athletic SF's is usually shorthand for, "Who's gonna guard Barnes?", my response has been, "That's a problem, but we won't face too many really athletic SF's." Further, I have claimed that very, very few SF's are capable of posting, say, Austin or Andre; for college isn't the NBA, where matchup strategies are everyday things. College ball rarely sees this particular issue: a 6'6"-6'7" SF repeatedly posting a 6'3"-6'4" opponent.

But.... I concede that for those who have raised this Barnes-inspired spectre, the MSU game will be a good test. For it appears unlikely that Murphy will play, and equally unlikely that Gbinije is deemed ready for extended minutes. So, while I'm with those who say it's Dawson, not Green, against whom Austin/Andre will be matched, I concede that Dawson is bigger, stronger, a true SF, not just a wing/perimeter guy. While I don't think this will pose a post-up problem, it might well add to MSU's rebounding prowess, as Dawson got 7 rebounds, including an impressive 4 offensive rebounds, v. UNC. He also played 35 minutes [Green had 38], so that's impressive, too.

Finally, to the extent that Dawson does present a 3/SF matchup nightmare - say, in the first 10 minutes - I'd like to see Gbinije get a chance to guard him. Gbinije can play, now, given the chance. Not as smoothly as our other perimeter guys, but he can play. His situation is different from Dawson's, who, it seems, "fits" Izzo's scheme pretty nicely right away, because he's a wing/perimeter who can rebound; as opposed to K's general preference, for wing/perimeters who can 3-bomb.

In the debate re "Duke has a problem at the SF," I have said it's not a problem because college SF's don't post up much. But Izzo's maniacal rebounders might pose a problem, and Dawson's 4 O-boards v. UNC do concern me.

[CDu]

Here are my thoughts positionally:

C: Payne and Nix will play the majority of minutes here unless foul trouble dictates otherwise. They're plenty big. Payne has some offensive skill, while Nix is mainly a widebody who pounds the glass.

PF: We'll see a lot of Green, who is similar to Coleman from Presbyterian in style. He's short (perhaps generously listed at 6'7") and stout (230+). But he knows how to work around the basket. He'll pick up the rebounds on both ends. He can pass extremely well from the post. He has good footwork around the paint and can dribble. He's a decent shooter too, but I'll be happy if he's settling for jumpers. They'll play Gauna for foul minutes, but he looks like a minutes filler only.

SF: Dawson looks like a very good freshman. He's big (6'6", 215) and explosive. Kind of a Jason Richardson type of player, but perhaps a better shooter as a freshman. He is a face-up player, so I don't think we'll need to worry about him posting up Rivers/Dawkins. But we will need to worry about him attacking the offensive glass. He's aggressive and strong, and that should be an area of concern. Austin Thornton is his backup, and isn't really a difference maker.

SG: Wood is their SG, and he's a shooter. He's a transfer senior from Valpo. He didn't shoot great on the carrier, but he can hit the 3. We'll also see Appling play some on the wing, and he can also shoot it very well.

PG: Appling and Trice share the duties. Neither is exceptional at penetration. They're young an inexperienced, so their development will be a key to the MSU season.

Overall: MSU is fairly physical in the frontcourt, fairly short at guard. They'll test our bigs' ability to box and and pull down rebounds strong because they will absolutely POUND THE GLASS (both with their bigs and with Dawson slashing from the wing). On the perimeter, we have a substantial edge. We're much deeper, more talented, and even more experienced there.

My main concerns are preventing offensive rebounds and containing Branden Dawson at the 3. If we can do those things well, we should win, because MSU doesn't have the horses on the perimeter to beat us.

[J4Kop99]

I can see Hairston getting some minutes if Plumlees/Kelly/anybody else (dawkins?) have trouble on Green. I think Hairston is big/quick enough to match up well with him.

[Kedsy]

I can see Hairston getting some minutes if Plumlees/Kelly/anybody else (dawkins?) have trouble on Green. I think Hairston is big/quick enough to match up well with him.

Well, he's probably big enough. I've never been particularly struck by Josh's quickness, though. But I haven't seen enough of Green to know how quick he is, either.

[CDu]

I can see Hairston getting some minutes if Plumlees/Kelly/anybody else (dawkins?) have trouble on Green. I think Hairston is big/quick enough to match up well with him.

Green plays the post/PF spot, so Dawkins will not spend any minutes as the primary defender on him. And it's not a quickness issue with Green. He's more of a bull with skills than a quickness guy. Think more along the lines of DeJuan Blair type but with better ballhandling/passing/shooting skills.

I'm sure Hairston will see time in this game, but I doubt he'll be a difference maker against Green. As a side note, I'm not entirely sure where Hairston has gotten this reputation as a quickness upgrade over Kelly or the Plumlees. Not that it matters in this example, but still confused by that.

[Billy Dat]

Tomorrow night's game will be an early test of an issue that has been debated quite a bit on EK since the end of last season: can Duke in 2011-'12 match up with the traditional SF/3.

The issue has been formulated and debated in several ways. Those who say that Duke will have trouble at the SF/3 on D tend to discuss lineups in terms of frontcourt, wings, and backcourt; whereas others tend to use the terms interior [inside, bigs] and perimeter. I am in the latter group, as it has seemed to me that college ball has been moving toward 3-guard [perimeter] lineups as the default. In terms of the traditional 1-5 numbering system, many college teams actually play a PG/1, two wings [two 2's], and two inside guys [usually, two 4's, one of whom is perhaps a stretch-4].

Taking this second view, I have argued, in response to those who are concerned that Duke can't guard the athletic SF/3's, that Duke won't face many such players. Since this concern about athletic SF's is usually shorthand for, "Who's gonna guard Barnes?", my response has been, "That's a problem, but we won't face too many really athletic SF's." Further, I have claimed that very, very few SF's are capable of posting, say, Austin or Andre; for college isn't the NBA, where matchup strategies are everyday things. College ball rarely sees this particular issue: a 6'6"-6'7" SF repeatedly posting a 6'3"-6'4" opponent.

In the debate re "Duke has a problem at the SF," I have said it's not a problem because college SF's don't post up much. But Izzo's maniacal rebounders might pose a problem, and Dawson's 4 O-boards v. UNC do concern me.

This is an interesting issue and one that will probably continue to evolve for the following reasons:

-It's early, but Curry and Rivers seem to have sown up starting jobs.
-Dawkins and Thornton are currently fighting for that 3rd starter spot. As far as a rotation and minutes, right now Dawkins/Thornton/Cook is a nice battle for PT with Curry and Rivers getting 30+, fouls and score permitting.
-While Gbinije hasn't shown a lot in the games so far, I feel like he is making an impression in practice because he's been getting first half minutes and K put him in the Belmont game, for Kelly, for defense on that last possession.

As of today, I think Dawkins gets that SF assignment. If he doesn't shed his current inconsistency, that assignment is going to be up for grabs. If Thornton comes on and his play results in him being a starter, then I see Rivers getting that assignment with the goal of keeping the SF in front of him, closing out strong on 3s, and hoping that,as stated earlier, most college SFs, the Black Pigeon included, have no post up game.

Then there's Gbinije who seems to be the best athletic fit for the job, but he's an unproven freshman. If he comes along so quickly that he earns major playing time, I think we'd all be pleasantly surprised. But, there is a gap he can fill.

[loldevilz]

In a one-and-done format you have to think about how your team matches up against all types of teams so being able to guard a big small forward who gets a lot of rebounds and who can shoot over a smaller player is a concern. If Duke could just play teams that matched up well with them or who were "normal" they'd with the tournament every year.

[Kedsy]

In a one-and-done format you have to think about how your team matches up against all types of teams so being able to guard a big small forward who gets a lot of rebounds and who can shoot over a smaller player is a concern. If Duke could just play teams that matched up well with them or who were "normal" they'd with the tournament every year.

Except I don't think Green plays SF for Michigan State. Nor is he an outside shooter. Other than possibly Harrison Barnes (who really isn't that much of a rebounder), what SF fits your description?

[CDu]

Except I don't think Green plays SF for Michigan State. Nor is he an outside shooter. Other than possibly Harrison Barnes (who really isn't that much of a rebounder), what SF fits your description?

Yes, Green is absolutely not a SF. However, Dawson fits that description for MSU. Generally speaking, though, the "big SF who can shoot and rebound" is largely a non-issue in college basketball.

[MChambers]

This is an interesting issue and one that will probably continue to evolve for the following reasons:

-It's early, but Curry and Rivers seem to have sown up starting jobs.
-Dawkins and Thornton are currently fighting for that 3rd starter spot. As far as a rotation and minutes, right now Dawkins/Thornton/Cook is a nice battle for PT with Curry and Rivers getting 30+, fouls and score permitting.
-While Gbinije hasn't shown a lot in the games so far, I feel like he is making an impression in practice because he's been getting first half minutes and K put him in the Belmont game, for Kelly, for defense on that last possession.

As of today, I think Dawkins gets that SF assignment. If he doesn't shed his current inconsistency, that assignment is going to be up for grabs. If Thornton comes on and his play results in him being a starter, then I see Rivers getting that assignment with the goal of keeping the SF in front of him, closing out strong on 3s, and hoping that,as stated earlier, most college SFs, the Black Pigeon included, have no post up game.

Then there's Gbinije who seems to be the best athletic fit for the job, but he's an unproven freshman. If he comes along so quickly that he earns major playing time, I think we'd all be pleasantly surprised. But, there is a gap he can fill.

I wouldn't rule Murphy out of this one. If he was healthy, I bet he would have played this weekend. Plus, it's a long season and players can see their roles increase significantly (see Williams, Eliot).

[94duke]

I wouldn't rule Murphy out of this one. If he was healthy, I bet he would have played this weekend. Plus, it's a long season and players can see their roles increase significantly (see Williams, Eliot).

Coach K just mentioned in a press conference that Murphy will practice today.

[Billy Dat]

I wouldn't rule Murphy out of this one. If he was healthy, I bet he would have played this weekend. Plus, it's a long season and players can see their roles increase significantly (see Williams, Eliot).

Great point - I am already forgetting about Murphy and he hasn't even been officially launched. I wonder who he is battling in practice everyday? Regardless, if the rotation guys are currently Curry, Rivers, Dawkins, Thornton, Cook, Kelly, MP1 and MP2 (8 total), then Hairston, Gbinije and Murphy will be battling to try and be #9. Will this be the year that #9 and maybe #10 get minutes? Who knows. Maybe one of them will play so well that they'll be in that 1-8 group. Practice must be lively.

[Kedsy]

Great point - I am already forgetting about Murphy and he hasn't even been officially launched. I wonder who he is battling in practice everyday? Regardless, if the rotation guys are currently Curry, Rivers, Dawkins, Thornton, Cook, Kelly, MP1 and MP2 (8 total), then Hairston, Gbinije and Murphy will be battling to try and be #9. Will this be the year that #9 and maybe #10 get minutes? Who knows. Maybe one of them will play so well that they'll be in that 1-8 group. Practice must be lively.

I agree. History's against it, but this would be a great year to have a nine man rotation. If they can earn the minutes, we could really use a big wing getting regular minutes.

That said, in the tight game against Belmont, we really only went seven deep. So I'm not holding my breath for nine (at least not once the ACC season starts).

[loldevilz]

Except I don't think Green plays SF for Michigan State. Nor is he an outside shooter. Other than possibly Harrison Barnes (who really isn't that much of a rebounder), what SF fits your description?

First, Green made 37 three pointers last year, so I would say he definitely DOES shoot three pointers and he definitely DID play some small forward last year. Secondly, Harrison Barnes does rebound. He's averaging 5 rebounds a game this year.

As for one SF that fits my description, here are the small forwards from the top 5 ranked teams: Harrison Barnes, Michael Kid-Gilchrist, Kris Joseph, William Buford, Roscoe Smith. They all fit my description.

[DukieTiger]

First, Green made 37 three pointers last year, so I would say he definitely DOES shoot three pointers and he definitely DID play some small forward last year. Secondly, Harrison Barnes does rebound. He's averaging 5 rebounds a game this year.

As for one SF that fits my description, here are the small forwards from the top 5 ranked teams: Harrison Barnes, Michael Kid-Gilchrist, Kris Joseph, William Buford, Roscoe Smith. They all fit my description.

So you're saying that we might have some match-up problems against the top 5 teams in the country? Shocking! :p

Seriously though, we have size on the roster so I anticipate this being a bigger struggle tomorrow than in March. It seems like both Gbinije and Murphy are going to contribute on defense before they contribute on offense. Just my opinion though.

[CDu]

First, Green made 37 three pointers last year, so I would say he definitely DOES shoot three pointers and he definitely DID play some small forward last year.

Green can shoot. But he's never played SF. The SF last year for MSU was Summers, with Thornton backing him up. Green played PF.

That said, Dawson does fit your description.


Secondly, Harrison Barnes does rebound. He's averaging 5 rebounds a game this year.

As for one SF that fits my description, here are the small forwards from the top 5 ranked teams: Harrison Barnes, Michael Kid-Gilchrist, Kris Joseph, William Buford, Roscoe Smith. They all fit my description.

Roscoe Smith can't shoot. But he can rebound. Also, your list is of the top 5 teams in the country. Of course they'll give us trouble.

[Mcluhan]

Depends on which Andre shows up. If it's the Andre we've seen for most of his career, well it's not too hard for Green to just stand out by the 3 pt. line. If Andre shows good movement w/o the ball and any driving ability . . . then Coach K has a big new weapon to work with.

But another way to look at that is whoever's guarding Andre absolutely must stand out by the 3 pt line. Even if Andre just camps out behind the line, as long as he's actually shooting he helps open up our offense.

I'd love to see Andre develop a more 3 dimensional game, but I really do think he can help just by doing more of what he does best. No coach in their right mind would sag off of him.

[Edited due to the fact that Green might not be the guy guarding Andre. Thx everybody!]

[dukemsu]

But another way to look at that is whoever's guarding Andre absolutely must stand out by the 3 pt line. Even if Andre just camps out behind the line, as long as he's actually shooting he helps open up our offense.

I'd love to see Andre develop a more 3 dimensional game, but I really do think he can help just by doing more of what he does best. No coach in their right mind would sag off of him.

[Edited due to the fact that Green might not be the guy guarding Andre. Thx everybody!]

I'd be absolutely stunned if Green is on Andre for more than a few plays.

Green and Nix/Payne will guard Miles and Mason to start. Appling gets Rivers. Dawson will check Dawkins, and Wood will guard Curry.

Green played some 3 last year, but it didn't go well, especially defensively. He'll be guarding 4s and 5s this year to maximize his rebounding.

dukemsu

[DUKIE V(A)]

I am not nearly as knowledgeable as many (especially DukeMSU) on the MSU roster, but based on my more limited knowledge it seems that they are as weak at guard as they have been in many, many years. In contrast, we seem to have a lot talent at the guard position (albeit somewhat inexperienced). Plus, our Bigs are underrated. No disrespect to Izzo and the MSU program who I think a ton of but I like Duke in this match up by about 15. Just does not seem that MSU has the horses this year and that this match up favors our Blue Devils.

[brevity]

PF: We'll see a lot of Green, who is similar to Coleman from Presbyterian in style. He's short (perhaps generously listed at 6'7") and stout (230+). But he knows how to work around the basket.

A tempest in a teapot, then?

[JasonEvans]

Seth Davis tweeted the following a few minutes ago--


Allow me to wake you up for my official prediction for this evening: I believe Michigan State will upset Duke, postponing the Coach K party.

Duke is better, but these are extraordinary circumstances. Duke players will be under great pressure to deliver the win. World is watching.

When Bob Knight was passing Dean Smith, his Texas Tech teams lost games it shouldn't. Players were tight. Not sure Devils ready for that.

Mich St better than people think. Got their feet wet vs tough UNC team. Plus, they have NO pressure on them. Just a hunch, folks.

-Jason "we'll see... it never hurts a former Dukie like Seth to pick against his school -- removes allegations of bias" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

Seth Davis tweeted the following a few minutes ago--



-Jason "we'll see... it never hurts a former Dukie like Seth to pick against his school -- removes allegations of bias" Evans

Five point spread, would not be a real upset. I don't think we will come out tight, but I do think MSU will come out with a "we're not going to be the ones on the highlight reel forever" view. Izzo will tell them that it isn't happening. Not tonight.

I could see the game going either way, and will not be surprised if we lose. Either way, as long as the team learns something tonight about playing in the big games, it's all good.

Time to see who is ready to step up on the Big Stage.

[CDu]

I'd be absolutely stunned if Green is on Andre for more than a few plays.

Green and Nix/Payne will guard Miles and Mason to start. Appling gets Rivers. Dawson will check Dawkins, and Wood will guard Curry.

Green played some 3 last year, but it didn't go well, especially defensively. He'll be guarding 4s and 5s this year to maximize his rebounding.

dukemsu

I agree with the rest of your post except for the bolded part. I'm pretty sure I remember Summers playing the 3, with Thornton backing him up. I checked the stats, and the following players played perimeter roles for MSU last year (excluding the absolute end-of-bench guys):

Lucas: 33.4 mpg
Appling: 22.9 mpg
Summers: 29.3 mpg
Lucious: 12.9 mpg (24.4 mpg over 18 games)
Thornton: 11.1 mpg
Kebler: 9.8 mpg

That's 119.4 mpg, or roughly all of the minutes for PG, SG, and SF.

In other words, Green didn't play SF last year. He did spend more time on the perimeter, but it was in the "stretch 4" role with guys like Roe, Sherman, Nix, and Payne playing the 5 (and the rest of the minutes at 4).

Sorry for beating a dead horse here, as I think it's clear that Green isn't going to guard (or be guarded by) Dawkins except on the occasional screen switches. I just wanted to clarify how unlikely it'd be for Green to play at the 3.

[1 24 90]

As much as I would have liked for Michigan State to beat UNC in 2009, Tom Izzo doesn't have 2 national titles. Nice graphic ESPN.

[wgl1228]

I like Andre coming out aggressive even if he makes a few mistakes.

[DukieInBrasil]

no rebounding. giving up tons of 2nd chance points. MSU is just geting all the loose balls, knocking it away after rebs. we'd be ahead by 8 if we don't give up those Oboards.

[wgl1228]

I know we have a good record at MSG but I hate playing there. The rims are stiff and awkward.

[slower]

FOR GOD'S SAKE! Hang on to the ball! Plumlee hands.

[DukieInBrasil]

DRE!!!! 3-4 3s!!! Comin' aliiiiiiiiivvveeee!!!!!!!!!!!

[Kfanarmy]

Can anyone describe what Duke is trying to do on offense?

[tdrake51]

I understand that Kelly is one of our smartest players, but he makes our defensive rotations way too slow. He is a liability on D in a game like this.

[TonyWR]

FOR GOD'S SAKE! Hang on to the ball! Plumlee hands.

Kinda looking like last season against Arizona

[loldevilz]

For all those people that love talking about how great Wojo is- I hope you are watching this game.

[wgl1228]

The Plumlees have got to get their act together.

[DukieInBrasil]

The Plumlees have got to get their act together.
They are both trying to dribble too much. It's killing us.

[feldspar]

For all those people that love talking about how great Wojo is- I hope you are watching this game.

Oh for Pete's sake...

[duke09hms]

For all those people that love talking about how great Wojo is- I hope you are watching this game.

Agreed. To be fair, the bigs do seem to be contributing more this year on offense. However, I can't tell if that's due to improvement or just increased touches leading to increased comfort.

Plumlees have left a lot of points on the court and a couple dumb turnovers, but then again so has MSU, so it's hard to really describe the game. Definitely a tight one.

I'd rather have Dawkins be 3-4 from two-point range instead of three-point.

[Kfanarmy]

For all those people that love talking about how great Wojo is- I hope you are watching this game.

Wow I didn't even see him check in; you sure he's playing?

[J4Kop99]

Such an incredibly boring 1st half. Tons of fouls and stoppages in the game. The crowd is completely silent. The announcers have been terrible.

-Everything about that 1st half made me want to turn the channel.

I won't even get into the frustration I had while watching Miles and Rivers. Thank god Dawkins shot lights out.

Hopefully our guys can get into some sort of rhythm during the 2nd half...

[DukieInBrasil]

I'd rather have Dawkins be 3-4 from two-point range instead of three-point.
Now that is just a silly thing to say. He's hit 4 threes for 12 pts, that's like saying i'd rather he scored 8 pts rather than 12. Which is akin to saying, i'd rather us be losing by 3 rather than up by 1.

[slower]

For all those people that love talking about how great Wojo is- I hope you are watching this game.

You're trying to earn another orange thingy on your profile, aren't you? :)

[Krzyzewskiville]

That last second floater by MSU reminded me of the Arizona game last year, but we were up by a lot more!

[loldevilz]

You're trying to earn another orange thingy on your profile, aren't you? :)

Lol. The mods love me around here cause I keep it real.

[SMO]

That last second floater by MSU reminded me of the Arizona game last year, but we were up by a lot more!

Is Hubert Davis drunk?

[J4Kop99]

A few more forced drives ending up in charging calls will set Austin off to the point of no return. He's about as good at hiding his emotions as I am.


Note: I am terrible at holding in my emotion.

[duke09hms]

Now that is just a silly thing to say. He's hit 4 threes for 12 pts, that's like saying i'd rather he scored 8 pts rather than 12. Which is akin to saying, i'd rather us be losing by 3 rather than up by 1.

If you think a little more critically, it would mean that he's shown some comfort driving the lane and finishing through contact (especially against Michigan State), which bodes well for his production as a player and our team's long-term prospects. Also it doesn't mean we would be losing by 3 because Andre successfully attacking the hoop would change the whole complexion of the game in our favor and get MSU in foul trouble.

We already know he can shoot lights-out from 3; however, he is for the most part a one-dimensional offensive player. At least, that's what he's shown us.

[SCMatt33]

To be frank, it's both a miracle that Duke is leading at all, but they could be leading by a ton. By that I mean, with three point shooting that hot, you should be up double digits. With general play that bad, though, it's a miracle they're not getting blown out. Michigan State helped us a lot by making some bad turnovers that were unforced by the Duke defense. Each offense really had one thing going for it. Duke had three's and Michigan State had drives. They killed us driving the ball.

A few bright spots (besides hot shooting). Duke did a good job of team rebounding on defense. Michigan state made it very difficult to grab clean rebounds but the little guys helped clean up the loose balls. Duke is hanging with Michigan State on the boards right now which has to continue. I saw some good post moves (and some not so good moves). I think that some of the moves that the Plumlees made in the first two games aren't working here. Specifically, the long moves that take two or three dribbles didn't work because the defenders are big and athletic enough to catch up to them. The best move was Mason's quick one dribble hook. He didn't give the defender a chance to get over and didn't have long enough to end up traveling.

[DukieInBrasil]

If you think a little more critically, it would mean that he's shown some comfort driving the lane and finishing through contact (especially against Michigan State), which bodes well for his production as a player and our team's long-term prospects. Also it doesn't mean we would be losing by 3 because Andre successfully attacking the hoop would change the whole complexion of the game in our favor and get MSU in foul trouble.

We already know he can shoot lights-out from 3; however, he is for the most part a one-dimensional offensive player. At least, that's what he's shown us.
Well considering that he hasn't shot lights out so far this season, i think it's great that he's super hot right now, especially when no one else is (tho' Curry has hit 2-3 for 9pts). He did have a break-away dunk, but when he drove the lane later he got blocked.
I agree that picking up fouls would be good, but when he tried to get one, he got stuffed. Not sure why you want to repeat that.

[duke09hms]

Well considering that he hasn't shot lights out so far this season, i think it's great that he's super hot right now, especially when no one else is (tho' Curry has hit 2-3 for 9pts). He did have a break-away dunk, but when he drove the lane later he got blocked.
I agree that picking up fouls would be good, but when he tried to get one, he got stuffed. Not sure why you want to repeat that.

I agree, which is why I said, "I'd rather him be 3-4 on two-pointers instead of three-pointers." Not drive the lane 4 times and get packed every time.

Speaking of nice blocks, who else loved the Ryan Kelly stuff on Draymond Green . . . YES!

Our bigs are definitely matching MSU's toughness in the post, but ugh so many dumb TOs. Like when Mason caught the nice pass 3 ft. away from the hoop then proceeded to shuffle his feet and travel.

Cmon guys, sharpen up out there!

[gumbomoop]

Is Hubert Davis drunk?

I don't think so, but when Hubert is paired with Dickie and/or Digger, he abandons his generally solid bball analysis to attempt to match them in ...... whatever it is they do these days. It appears that Digger, especially, is sort of a default doofus for the others to parody. Hubert and Jay are fine together, except when Digger is on the scene. Then Jay, too, allows his inner comedian to take over, often to embarrassing effect.

[loldevilz]

I agree, which is why I said, "I'd rather him be 3-4 on two-pointers instead of three-pointers." Not drive the lane 4 times and get packed every time.

Speaking of nice blocks, who else loved the Ryan Kelly stuff on Draymond Green . . . YES!

Our bigs are definitely matching MSU's toughness in the post, but ugh so many dumb TOs. Like when Mason caught the nice pass 3 ft. away from the hoop then proceeded to shuffle his feet and travel.

Cmon guys, sharpen up out there!

The one thing are bigs definitely deserve credit for is rebounding. They are really neutralizing MSU on the boards.

[feldspar]

Great to see Andre put the ball on the floor and get to the bucket with success. We need that.

[pfrduke]

We're going to have some games this year where we go cold, and it'll probably cost us a game or two. But we'll also have several games like this, where guys are lighting up from outside, and it's going to carry us through some otherwise ugly stretches. Every shot our guys are putting up from 3 right now, I believe is going in - they look extremely dialed in.

[Kfanarmy]

I don't mind the announcers having fun; people can always turn the volume down and rely on their own eyes if it is too distracting.

[DukieInBrasil]

I agree, which is why I said, "I'd rather him be 3-4 on two-pointers instead of three-pointers." Not drive the lane 4 times and get packed every time.

Speaking of nice blocks, who else loved the Ryan Kelly stuff on Draymond Green . . . YES!

Our bigs are definitely matching MSU's toughness in the post, but ugh so many dumb TOs. Like when Mason caught the nice pass 3 ft. away from the hoop then proceeded to shuffle his feet and travel.

Cmon guys, sharpen up out there!

Hey man, i liked that last drive by Dawkins! I agree with your premise that it would be nice to see Dre diversify his game, but i want him to shoot the 3 whenever he feels like he's got a good look. The thing is for him to be able to recognize opps to drive. That last one, he actually had a lane, he drove it and made a rather non-simple shot. I'd love to see more of that, too, but not at the expense of his 3s.

[pfrduke]

We're going to have some games this year where we go cold, and it'll probably cost us a game or two. But we'll also have several games like this, where guys are lighting up from outside, and it's going to carry us through some otherwise ugly stretches. Every shot our guys are putting up from 3 right now, I believe is going in - they look extremely dialed in.

Well, except when Seth's taking one-on-one step back 20-footers.

[pfrduke]

Oh Miles. So silly. Both Plumlees have now earned really dumb technical fouls.

[CAT Blue Devil]

Are Miles and Mason having a competition as to not thinking tonight?

[SMO]

Miles with the foul and technical. The Plumlees are having a terrible night and it's all between their ears!

[feldspar]

Miles gets completely owned by his man then mouths off to the ref. Real smart.

[1 24 90]

If Plumlee brothers techincals end up costing Duke this game, I am going to be extremely perturbed.

[DukieInBrasil]

Are Miles and Mason having a competition as to not thinking tonight?
Neither of them are under control, but part of that is that they are handling the ball away from the rim WAY too much

[Dr. Tina]

If Plumlee brothers techincals end up costing Duke this game, I am going to be extremely perturbed.

I'm completely with you on this. They have made some really bonehead moves tonight.

[davekay1971]

Wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see Miles the rest of the night after that maneuver.

[CAT Blue Devil]

Guess you have to give props to some nifty passing - keep that up.

[feldspar]

Disappointing to see a Tom izzo coached team play so dirty.

[Dukeface88]

I really want to know what was said at halftime. It's absurd how much tougher we've been this half.

[SMO]

If you had told me MP1,MP2, and Rivers would all have bad games and Duke would be up almost 20 I would have thought you were nuts.

[duke09hms]

Nice, great that mason is drawing so many fouls.

[Kfanarmy]

If you had told me MP1,MP2, and Rivers would all have bad games and Duke would be up almost 20 I would have thought you were nuts. at least four MSU players are having bad games...

[ChrisP]

Thornton has just made 2 really bad plays - come on guys!

[ChrisP]

Nice block by Mason! We need to finish strong - I want to win this one convincingly for K

[Gthoma2a]

I don't see why we haven't tried to put an offensive PG in... Quinn would be nice tonight. Andre has been great, but this night hasn't had great offense for us. Rivers made some decisions that showed youth, but it is only his third game at this level, so it is understandable. Ryan has looked good like he did during the international games. We are making this game closer than it has to be, though.

[ChrisP]

Rivers is kinda embarrassing himself, no? I think it's actually a good thing in the long run and will humble him and make him hungrier but...wow - he's gettin' nothin' going to the rack.

[wgl1228]

Attack of the decals!

[moonpie23]

ha....karl hess getting an ear full from capel, wojo and collins all at the same time....right AFTER getting an ear full from K...

[duke09hms]

Except for the dumb technicals and a few turnovers, our bigs have really impressed with their toughness rebounding and shutting down the MSU post offense. In the past, the Plumlees would have faded in this matchup with a tough frontline.

I do have to scoff at the idea someone brought up earlier about Miles having a NBA shot. I hope so, but not likely at all.

I think it'll be good for Rivers to get shut down by MSU's tough D - humble him a little bit to get blocked so much. Can't force the issue my man.

You can tell this is a young team by all the poor decisions and mental mistakes we've been making, same with MSU as well. Strangely, they arent really "young" - starting a FR, SR, JR, redshirt JR, and JR. Hopefully they grow up mentally by the end of the year.

[duke09hms]

Wow, just like Will Snyderwine and his kicking, the Plumlees are going to cost us a few games with their free throws.

[ChrisP]

Ok, what in the HECK are we doing? This game should be over!

[SMO]

Curry is putting on a clinic of how not to close out a game. The lack of intelligence of the whole team once they had a huge lead is incredible.

[licc85]

Man, Ryan Kelly needs to get more shots, he's been one of, if the most efficient guys we have on offense, and even when he's not shooting, he makes the right play and doesnt turn it over . . . we should go back to starting Ryan with Mason, I'm just not sure starting 2 Plumlees is the best idea.

[ChrisP]

Curry is putting on a clinic of how not to close out a game. The lack of intelligence of the whole team once they had a huge lead is incredible.

Word! Lots of teachable moments though! And nice FT's by Dawkins and Curry. Mason really has to get better at the line though. Would 60% be too much to ask?

[slower]

Definitely NOT a confidence-inspiring performance.

Should have been over LONG ago.

[licc85]

I wonder why Coach K never put Miles back into the game after the personal/technical combo happened. It's certainly not what you want to see happen with one of your team captains . . doesn't exactly help him grow as a leader.

[ChrisP]

On the other hand, you know the kids had to be a bit over-hyped for this game. I think they just got a little ahead of themselves with the big lead and lots of time still to go. Can't believe Curry missed that first FT though. Jeez, come on, dude!

[duke09hms]

Penetrating guards with tight ball-handling are going to hurt us this year - Appling is schooling our perimeter D. Gonna miss Nolan shutting those guys down.