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Newton_14
11-10-2011, 08:53 PM
Well, the preseason is now behind us and the real games start. We learned a little bit in Phase 0, but Phase I will tell us much more about this team. Why? Competition. The schedule just stiffened folks, and it starts with a very good Belmont team. A team that for those not paying attention, will surely mistake for a pushover.

Phase I starts with Belmont and will run through the Ohio St game. A tough 8 game stretch where “The Record” will surely fall, but also where this team will be tested strongly and learn a lot about themselves.

What will we learn about this team during Phase I? Here are a few things to focus on...

(1) Team Defense

What we learned in Phase 0, is for the first time in many years, a Duke team is further along on offense than they are on defense at this point in the season. To be blunt, the defense was poor in the exhibition games. Especially staying in front of people on the perimeter and applying on ball pressure. I suspect we see a change where we move back towards a 2010 “containment” style of defense with a focus on keeping your man in front of you. That style may fit this team better. This team will not force a lot of turnovers, but can be good enough to make teams work hard for buckets. The bigs have to protect the lane. Rotations and finding shooters will be a key. Look for the style change and how the guys fare at it.

(2) Rotation

My biggest question coming out of Phase 0 is, will the true Wings/Small Forwards play well enough to stay on the floor, and allow K to go 3 guard by choice when he wants to change the pace, or will they struggle and force K to go 3 guard by necessity? Andre broke out of the semi-slump in the Shaw game, and darn it, we need this kid on the floor. All of us want him to not only play, but shine. Can he do it consistently on both ends? I believe he can. I pray he proves me right. This Phase is key for him. Secondly, can one of Murphy/Silent G play well enough to grab solid minutes backing Andre up? With all 3 of the SF’s, I only see enough minutes for 2 of them to be in the main rotation, but we definitely need at least 1 of them to be a starter to avoid a small lineup. What about the guards? Tyler seems destined to be a mainstay in the rotation, but Cook is uber talented as well. Can Quinn play his way into the rotation, at least garnering decent minutes each game? MP1, MP2, and Kelly will get most of the minutes in the post. Josh will be called on more than last year, and will be there as a backup in times of foul trouble or injury. At the end of the day, how deep will K go? History says 8, max, but every year is different. This is a key item to watch for in this Phase

(3) Austin Rivers

I was pleased with Austin’s play in Phase 0. He showed improvement in all phases, especially on defense and drew high praise from K after the Shaw game. Not a hint of ego or chemistry problems. Just a talented player working to get better. This stretch will be a great test for him. Does he continue to get better, with scoring average going up and turnover rate going down? We will surely see instances where buckets are hard to come by during this stretch and will need Austin and Seth to manufacture points. Will Austin deliver or will he struggle and disrupt the flow of the team offense? I am banking on the former.

(4) Big Man Offense

The coaching staff has not backed down one bit from insisting the ball will go inside to the bigs for post scoring much more than recent years. In Phase 0 it happened, and the big fella’s took advantage for the most part. Mason is 14/14 in two games. Ryan had 16 in game 2. Shaw was the first game Miles missed double figures in the 6 exhibition games (counting the China/Dubai trip). He had 16 against Bellarmine and 8 against Shaw. A good start for all 3. The question’s in Phase I are, will the ball continue to go inside at the same rate, and will the big’s continue to deliver? Definitely something to watch

(5) Andre Dawkins

I mentioned Andre in the rotation category but will leave this here anyway, as his play is key, and at this point there is no guarantee which way he goes. I am pulling for him as hard as I have ever pulled for a Duke player. He can be a special player. Everyone wants him to be a special player. At the end of the day, however, it is up to him to grasp the opportunity. At the end of Phase I, I hope we are all raving about how Andre has finally turned the corner and killed it in these games.


(6) Lack of Traditional Point Guard

Seth Curry is one of our captain’s, our leader, and our PG. We can win and win big with Seth at the helm. I am convinced of that. Even better, we have two totally different “traditional” PG’s backing him up. I think both will get decent minutes, and more than decent if the Small Forward situation goes south. Opponents will have to game plan for both styles. All of that is my personal opinion, and it is certainly fair to ask the question of whether or not this situation is a strength or a weakness. How we play in this stretch should give us a good hint of how the season will go with the PG role on this team.

(7) Leadership, Chemistry, and Communication

We added Seth as a captain during Phase I which will help with Leadership. I feel we are covered with our 3 captains plus Mason, Tyler and Andre. Chemistry in terms of getting along seems to be good. On court chemistry will have to be developed over the course of the year with so many new pieces. Communication however, is critical, especially on defense. How well the guys communicate out there will go a long way in determining how good of a defensive team this Duke team will be. I will definitely have an eye on this in Phase I

(8) Health

We received feedback from the board in Phase 0, that with such a deep team, health is not quite as critical. I agree with that, and moved it to the bottom. However, I will remind you, injuries are a part of it, and we need to avoid the injury bug. Knock on wood or perform any other rituals you think will help!

Sorry for the long post, but with this team, there is much to learn, and much to watch
for as they develop. I am excited to see what the first 8 games bring. Let’s go Duke!

Kedsy
11-10-2011, 09:14 PM
Well, the preseason is now behind us and the real games start. We learned a little bit in Phase 0, but Phase I will tell us much more about this team. Why? Competition. The schedule just stiffened folks, and it starts with a very good Belmont team. A team that for those not paying attention, will surely mistake for a pushover.

Phase I starts with Belmont and will run through the Ohio St game. A tough 8 game stretch where “The Record” will surely fall, but also where this team will be tested strongly and learn a lot about themselves.

What will we learn about this team during Phase I? Here are a few things to focus on...

Great job, Newt. I think you hit most of the major points on the head. Another thing we will learn in this phase that we couldn't see in the exhibition games is how well we do in crunch time. We play a lot of good teams in this phase. Possibly 6 of our 8 games will be against tournament caliber squads (possibly the toughest 8 game stretch of our season). The games will be full of pressure and it will be interesting to see how this team reacts to that pressure.

If an opponent starts beating us, will we have the heart and determination to fight back? Will we adjust properly on defense? In crunch time, will we step up or wilt? Who will have the ball if it comes down to one or two offensive possessions?

Some teams have winning personalities, and win most of their close games. Other teams get tight when the going gets tough and don't succeed as much as they could. We have no idea which direction this team will go. To me that will be the most interesting information to come out of this phase.

Go Duke!

Kedsy
11-10-2011, 09:26 PM
(1) Team Defense

What we learned in Phase 0, is for the first time in many years, a Duke team is further along on offense than they are on defense at this point in the season. To be blunt, the defense was poor in the exhibition games. Especially staying in front of people on the perimeter and applying on ball pressure. I suspect we see a change where we move back towards a 2010 “containment” style of defense with a focus on keeping your man in front of you. That style may fit this team better. This team will not force a lot of turnovers, but can be good enough to make teams work hard for buckets. The bigs have to protect the lane. Rotations and finding shooters will be a key. Look for the style change and how the guys fare at it.


Defense is probably the most important piece that will determine whether the 2011-12 Blue Devils are good or great. But I wonder if your solution is how it will go. It seems to me that both Seth's and Austin's best strength is their quick hands. I'm not convinced either of them is a good enough one-on-one defender to keep their man in front of them. I think they'll need to gamble and try and force steals or rushed errors, and if their man gets by them try to force him to the middle. Because if they lie back and try to keep their man from penetrating we're going to give up a lot of threes.

If Seth and Austin can harass the perimeter and force opponents toward the middle with the bounce, then the key will be proper rotation by the bigs -- one to step up and force a difficult shot or pass and another to stop the backdoor cut and deny the easy two. And I get that the ability of our current crop of bigs to do this properly has been criticized in the past. But they are juniors and seniors now and they just have to do it. Because if they don't, I don't think the team will live up to its potential.

Newton_14
11-10-2011, 10:11 PM
Defense is probably the most important piece that will determine whether the 2011-12 Blue Devils are good or great. But I wonder if your solution is how it will go. It seems to me that both Seth's and Austin's best strength is their quick hands. I'm not convinced either of them is a good enough one-on-one defender to keep their man in front of them. I think they'll need to gamble and try and force steals or rushed errors, and if their man gets by them try to force him to the middle. Because if they lie back and try to keep their man from penetrating we're going to give up a lot of threes.

If Seth and Austin can harass the perimeter and force opponents toward the middle with the bounce, then the key will be proper rotation by the bigs -- one to step up and force a difficult shot or pass and another to stop the backdoor cut and deny the easy two. And I get that the ability of our current crop of bigs to do this properly has been criticized in the past. But they are juniors and seniors now and they just have to do it. Because if they don't, I don't think the team will live up to its potential.

Fair counterpoint. I have not given up on ball pressure, but I do think we will dial in back a bit, at least early in the season, until the guys get better. I agree on the quick hands part. As a team I am not sure we can force as many turnovers as our better defensive teams have in the past, but I do agree Seth will get his share of steals. Not sure on Austin yet, but the potential is there for sure. I do think in home games we will try full-court zone presses at times to try to create turnovers. We saw a little bit of that against Bellarmine. I am interested to see if we try that more. (I missed the Shaw game with a really bad Kidney Stone. The rumors on how bad they hurt are true:()

Did we zone press any against Shaw?

Bob Green
11-10-2011, 10:40 PM
Well, the preseason is now behind us and the real games start.

It has been a long off-season since the very disappointing loss to Arizona ended the 2011 season. Now it is time for a new team, a new season and new challenges. I'm looking forward to observing the team develop as the season progresses. There is no better time or place to communicate my intent to "stop and smell the roses" or more directly stated, my intent to enjoy the season.




(8) Health

We received feedback from the board in Phase 0, that with such a deep team, health is not quite as critical.

Ugh! I vehemently disagree. In fact, I so vehemently disagree that I'm moving "Health" to the top of my reply. TEAM DEPTH IS A PRESEASON MIRAGE! Health should ALWAYS be the #1 discussion item in the Phase Thread. I'm currently knocking on wood (aka the side of my head) and sacrificing a chicken (a Gamecock because there is no such thing as a Tar Heel chicken) in order to prevent this obvious loss of focus from jumping up and biting us in the butt. Geez...




(1) Team Defense

I suspect we see a change where we move back towards a 2010 “containment” style of defense with a focus on keeping your man in front of you. That style may fit this team better.

Perhaps my opinion is overly influenced by the success achieved in 2010, but I hope you are correct. I'd welcome a return to a "containment" approach to defense. With our frontline strength, this strategy would be playing to a strength.




(3) Austin Rivers

Will Austin deliver or will he struggle and disrupt the flow of the team offense? I am banking on the former.

Coach K has stated Austin isn't as ready as Kyrie was last season (I'm paraphrasing) so I do not expect AR to be an immediate star, but by January I expect he will have made the transition to the college game and will be a major factor going forward.




(4) Big Man Offense

The coaching staff has not backed down one bit from insisting the ball will go inside to the bigs for post scoring much more than recent years.

This is the second most important discussion topic for Phase 1. What's the first? TEAM HEALTH! Okay, enough...I'll get off my soap box...step down off the bully pulpit...

We absolutely need to go inside and score the ball in the low post. The majority of our opponents will be hard pressed to match-up with Miles, Mason and Ryan Kelly. Carolina is probably the exception but we can cross that bridge down the road...




(5) Andre Dawkins

At the end of Phase I, I hope we are all raving about how Andre has finally turned the corner and killed it in these games.

I'm a huge Andre Dawkins fan, and as I've posted in a different thread, all Duke fans owe Dawkins a great deal of gratitude for the six points he scored against Baylor in the 2010 Regional Championship Game against Baylor. Without Dawkins' effort in that game, the 2010 NCAA National Championship banner just might be hanging somewhere other than Cameron Indoor Stadium. I really, really, really desire to see Dawkins develop into a complete player over the next two seasons.

Newton_14
11-10-2011, 10:54 PM
It has been a long off-season since the very disappointing loss to Arizona ended the 2011 season. Now it is time for a new team, a new season and new challenges. I'm looking forward to observing the team develop as the season progresses. There is no better time or place to communicate my intent to "stop and smell the roses" or more directly stated, my intent to enjoy the season.



Ugh! I vehemently disagree. In fact, I so vehemently disagree that I'm moving "Health" to the top of my reply. TEAM DEPTH IS A PRESEASON MIRAGE! Health should ALWAYS be the #1 discussion item in the Phase Thread. I'm currently knocking on wood (aka the side of my head) and sacrificing a chicken (a Gamecock because there is no such thing as a Tar Heel chicken) in order to prevent this obvious loss of focus from jumping up and biting us in the butt. Geez...



Perhaps my opinion is overly influenced by the success achieved in 2010, but I hope you are correct. I'd welcome a return to a "containment" approach to defense. With our frontline strength, this strategy would be playing to a strength.



Coach K has stated Austin isn't as ready as Kyrie was last season (I'm paraphrasing) so I do not expect AR to be an immediate star, but by January I expect he will have made the transition to the college game and will be a major factor going forward.



This is the second most important discussion topic for Phase 1. What's the first? TEAM HEALTH! Okay, enough...I'll get off my soap box...step down off the bully pulpit...

We absolutely need to go inside and score the ball in the low post. The majority of our opponents will be hard pressed to match-up with Miles, Mason and Ryan Kelly. Carolina is probably the exception but we can cross that bridge down the road...



I'm a huge Andre Dawkins fan, and as I've posted in a different thread, all Duke fans owe Dawkins a great deal of gratitude for the six points he scored against Baylor in the 2010 Regional Championship Game against Baylor. Without Dawkins' effort in that game, the 2010 NCAA National Championship banner just might be hanging somewhere other than Cameron Indoor Stadium. I really, really, really desire to see Dawkins develop into a complete player over the next two seasons.

Thanks Bob. Point Taken on the Health issue. I did leave it in as a key item so that has to count for something, no?:o But to clarify. The feedback was that health was more critical in 2010 due to us only having 3 guards on the team, one of which was an early-entrant freshman. So health was critical that year. Had we lost one or two of Jon, Nolan, and Andre for any significant length of time, we were toast.

With this team, we are in a better position should a man or two get sidelined, but obviously, we do not want to test that theory. I hope the punishment of last year with Kyrie, will be enough to keep us in good favor with the basketball gods that manage injury/health.

(Note to self: Put health back at the top of the list in future Phase writeups or incur the wrath of Bob Green!):cool:

Mcluhan
11-11-2011, 12:51 AM
A few stray thoughts:

I think Thornton's main role will be switching up the rhythm of the game when that's what we need. It's what he did in his best games last year, and though a completely different player, it's a gravitational pull on the game that Corey Maggete had off the bench in '99. Which is one reason why those teams had opponents overwhelmed by halftime, but I digress.

In discussions about whether or not Andre will make some kind of leap this year I think it's underestimated how much he could help just by shooting more. The kid is generally lights out. Chris Collins was a fairly one dimensional shooter on a Final Four team, and though this year's team does not have a senior Grant Hill, it's probably more balanced. And Andre is probably a better shooter than Collins. Anyway, for Andre consistent defense and 13 points a game would be great.

I'm really excited for Seth, Miles, and Kelly to lead as captains.

Saratoga2
11-11-2011, 08:33 AM
Thanks Bob. Point Taken on the Health issue. I did leave it in as a key item so that has to count for something, no?:o But to clarify. The feedback was that health was more critical in 2010 due to us only having 3 guards on the team, one of which was an early-entrant freshman. So health was critical that year. Had we lost one or two of Jon, Nolan, and Andre for any significant length of time, we were toast.

With this team, we are in a better position should a man or two get sidelined, but obviously, we do not want to test that theory. I hope the punishment of last year with Kyrie, will be enough to keep us in good favor with the basketball gods that manage injury/health.

(Note to self: Put health back at the top of the list in future Phase writeups or incur the wrath of Bob Green!):cool:

I think that the one player we must have to be aneffective team is Austin. Any other player we can find a substitute for that may be substantially less capable but not a season killer. For the same reason, I think Austin has to balance defense with the rate he picks up fouls. If he picks up fouls quickly and sits for more than 20 minutes a game, we lose a big offensive threat. Possibly Quinn will develop into a penetrating threat later, but right now Austin can cause opponents the biggest matchup issues.

Billy Dat
11-11-2011, 01:21 PM
Great effort, Newton_14. These Phase posts are a great way to try and analyze the team.

Agree with Bob about Health but I see it as a key for every team in every sport so I'd say it doesn't warrant inclusion any more than "K on the bench" or "available oxygen in the arena" would.

I think I'd move "lack of traditional point guard" and "leadership et al" up as numbers 2 and 3 under defense. When Scheyer took over at the point, he wasn't a known PG commodity but he was surely a known Duke commodity. As a result, I think we all kind of felt like we'd be ok. Seth has had fewer reps as a Duke player at this point in his career, and the PG spot is so key, that I am pretty concerned about it.

As for the leadership point, I am focused not on the guy who is organizing team dinners and comforting bewildered freshmen. For all I know Josh Hairston might be doing that (he just seems like that kind of friendly type). I am thinking about K's response to a pre-season reporter's question about having a lot of guys flying under the national/regional radar. K's response was something akin to, "We've got too many guys under the radar, I need some guys above the radar", and I think the implication was that "above the radar" meant guys who, game in and game out, were going to shoulder the responsibility of production. It starts with effort, but effort isn't enough. It's filling up the stat sheet and handling your defensive assignment to the point that the team is in a position to win - it means having the constitution, the stones, to be a marquee guy for that particular squad. The list of such guys is long and storied...Smith, Singler, Scheyer, Reddick, S.Williams, Ewing, Nelson and on. Who are going to be those guys? I think Rivers is a no-brainer, and we'll need him to be one right away. Curry might be, Kelly might be....those are the two who seem most ready...I kind of wish Mason was as ready as Kelly seems, but he seems to lack that killer instinct. I think Miles is too wild and Andre too passive. Everyone else is too unknown.

I am putting a lot of our team's potential on Rivers. After the defense I saw he was capable in the Shaw game, all I could think of was, "That's who is going to guard the Black Pigeon" and any other small forward of note. If Andre could guard Barnes at 6'4", I don't doubt Rivers would relish the assignment. I think a lot of K's comments about Rivers not being as ready as Kyrie were honest, but also part of his coaching. He's our most talented player by quite a fair margin, and, it's early, but he seems to be taking to the coaching and making adjustments. He seems to want to be great, and knows that he's going to have to work at it. For us to be "special", I think he, more than anyone, needs to reach his potential because his ceiling is the highest. So now I've pinned our success to a freshman, so we got that going for us, which is nice.

mapei
11-11-2011, 01:58 PM
Love this thread and I learn from it. Am I wrong in thinking that we haven't had a natural, pure point guard more often than not for the last several years? I'm remembering Duhon and Paulus, of course, but both are feeling like ancient history at this point. None of Nolan/Jon/Dockery/Ewing seemed to fit that definition (maybe Dock comes closest) and I'm thinking even DeMarcus played point for a while. I get the impression it's not a priority for K.

Not saying it should or shouldn't be, just that the Duke system doesn't seem to rely on the guy playing the 1 to have a great handle, world-class passing, or an instinct for attacking the rim. When we do have that (JWill, CDu) we take advantage, but it's not at all uncommon when we don't.

superdave
11-11-2011, 04:59 PM
Fair counterpoint. I have not given up on ball pressure, but I do think we will dial in back a bit, at least early in the season, until the guys get better. I agree on the quick hands part. As a team I am not sure we can force as many turnovers as our better defensive teams have in the past, but I do agree Seth will get his share of steals. Not sure on Austin yet, but the potential is there for sure. I do think in home games we will try full-court zone presses at times to try to create turnovers. We saw a little bit of that against Bellarmine. I am interested to see if we try that more. (I missed the Shaw game with a really bad Kidney Stone. The rumors on how bad they hurt are true:()

Did we zone press any against Shaw?

The defensive strengths we develop will be interesting. We have the bodies to play aggressively and not worry about fouls too much. I'd expect our 4/5 guys to rebound well and either go for blocks or hit people hard who try to score in the paint. We dont have a real space eater down low like Zoubek was, but we will have length and jumping ability in the paint which should serve our D well.

As for perimeter defense, I dont really know what to expect. I think Seth has quick hands, Tyler brings good energy, but I am not entirely sure what to expect from Andre and Austin. Those two are expected to pull a lot of minutes, so their D could set the floor and ceiling for the rest of the team. My guess is team defense varies a lot early in the season. We have a lot of guys taking on more prominent roles this year, so people have to start stepping up to lead and be stoppers. We shall see.

ChillinDuke
11-11-2011, 05:54 PM
Ugh! I vehemently disagree. In fact, I so vehemently disagree that I'm moving "Health" to the top of my reply. TEAM DEPTH IS A PRESEASON MIRAGE! Health should ALWAYS be the #1 discussion item in the Phase Thread. I'm currently knocking on wood (aka the side of my head) and sacrificing a chicken (a Gamecock because there is no such thing as a Tar Heel chicken) in order to prevent this obvious loss of focus from jumping up and biting us in the butt. Geez...

Fair enough if you want to raise Team Depth as something to look at in Phase I. But putting health on these phase lists is pointless, IMO. Health is not something that can be addressed as a season goes on. You either have health or you don't.

And it's not like this is an issue unique to basketball teams. Health is a function of life, not basketball. Seems silly to include this as something we can "discover" about our team through various phases of the year.

$0.02

- Chillin (Tab: $0.02)

superdave
11-12-2011, 01:38 PM
After watching vs Belmont last night I am sort of up in the air on Thornton. Coach K clearly trusts him to play great D, hustle and execute. But I cannot shake the idea that Tyler taking away minutes from Andre is a bad thing.

Are we better off with Tyler playing 24 minutes a game as a rotation guy, or more like half that amount as a spark guy or momentum changer?

Acymetric
11-12-2011, 01:52 PM
After watching vs Belmont last night I am sort of up in the air on Thornton. Coach K clearly trusts him to play great D, hustle and execute. But I cannot shake the idea that Tyler taking away minutes from Andre is a bad thing.

Are we better off with Tyler playing 24 minutes a game as a rotation guy, or more like half that amount as a spark guy or momentum changer?

Obviously Dre made a clutch shot at the end of the game, but I could almost as easily flip that and ask if we're better off having Dre take some of Tyler's minutes. He has still yet to really show anything in his game other than a 3 point shot. The fact that we have to go all the way back to the Georgia Dome in 2010 to talk about his ability to drive and finish in the lane tells me that it is simply not something he does frequently.

BluDvlsN1
11-12-2011, 02:51 PM
Newt!
Read your post yesterday,thought it was well thought out then,
And not much since has changed my mind!!

A couple of thoughts that come to mind are, they're young
And it will be fun to watch their development!
I don't think it will take AR much time to get a kick out option from his penetration
While breaking down defenses!

And old school thought comes to mind for me, with the number of quality bigs and guards we have,
Am wondering why not have more of a flash to high post prescence, for face up to basket and
Be that triple threat situation, shoot, drive,hit a cutter or wing?
Would create a lot of options, while we're waiting for an absolute "go to" option to develop?

Newton_14
11-12-2011, 08:39 PM
Newt!
Read your post yesterday,thought it was well thought out then,
And not much since has changed my mind!!

A couple of thoughts that come to mind are, they're young
And it will be fun to watch their development!
I don't think it will take AR much time to get a kick out option from his penetration
While breaking down defenses!

And old school thought comes to mind for me, with the number of quality bigs and guards we have,
Am wondering why not have more of a flash to high post prescence, for face up to basket and
Be that triple threat situation, shoot, drive,hit a cutter or wing?
Would create a lot of options, while we're waiting for an absolute "go to" option to develop?


Thanks. Austin is improving game over game in my opinion. He makes little adjustments in different phases of the game each time out. I was at both the Belmont and today's game and he is starting to figure out the "help" part of Duke's defense. He made a beautiful defensive play today on help defense where he read the play, anticipated where the pass was going, and jumped right to the correct spot to intercept the pass. He also had 6 assists today.

I think by the end of the year he will be a far better player than he is today, and he is already darn good.

Newton_14
11-12-2011, 08:51 PM
After watching vs Belmont last night I am sort of up in the air on Thornton. Coach K clearly trusts him to play great D, hustle and execute. But I cannot shake the idea that Tyler taking away minutes from Andre is a bad thing.

Are we better off with Tyler playing 24 minutes a game as a rotation guy, or more like half that amount as a spark guy or momentum changer?

I think we need both, and today K went with Andre for much longer stretches than last night, I suspect in an attempt to get Andre going. Mentally he is staying in the game start to finish, but he is still far too passive on offense and has regressed back to being terrified of taking even one dribble on the perimeter. In both games this weekend, the only time he put the ball on the floor was the handful of times he drove. I am really disappointed in that and hope it changes soon. He worked hard on ball handling over the summer but it is obvious he has zero confidence in putting the ball on the floor out on the perimeter.

As for Tyler, I am not sure how much it resonated on TV last night, but he had one heck of a defensive performance against Belmont. Tyler Thornton was born to play Duke defense. I think CDu mentioned this in an earlier thread, but Tyler is a tremendous help defender. He is by far the best help defender in Duke's defensive scheme that I have seen in a long long time. Dude is like a gnat, and is all over the floor disrupting what the other team wants to do. He has also shown that if you leave him open on the perimeter he will knock down that spot up 3 pointer. That said, who knows how the game ends last night if Tyler fouling out doesn't force K to put Andre back out there. Andre's 3 was huge and sealed the win. If Tyler is in at that time, who knows if we score on that possession or not.

I still like Tyler coming off the bench and feel we can be better on the whole if Andre plays well enough to garner 25 minutes a night, but I have no problem with Tyler getting around 20 to 23 or so minutes, and more if he is playing well on both ends. His defense is invaluable.

They are both important players to this team.

gumbomoop
11-12-2011, 09:44 PM
I am thinking about K's response to a pre-season reporter's question about having a lot of guys flying under the national/regional radar. K's response was something akin to, "We've got too many guys under the radar, I need some guys above the radar", and I think the implication was that "above the radar" meant guys who, game in and game out, were going to shoulder the responsibility of production. It starts with effort, but effort isn't enough. It's filling up the stat sheet and handling your defensive assignment to the point that the team is in a position to win - it means having the constitution, the stones, to be a marquee guy for that particular squad.

This point has really got me thinking, and a bit nervous. I am a self-confessed Loony Optimist, every year, when it comes to Duke bball. Habitually, I have posted on various threads that, even in worst-case scenarios, Duke is golden, or nearly so, and a Final 4 candidate every season.

I will admit, however, that if Billy Dat is correct that K's "above the radar" can be translated as consistent production, based on the "constitution... to be a marquee guy," well, I cannot say who that will certainly be. For me, ball handling is the single most important physical skill and relentlessness is the single most important emotional/psychological [?] attribute in many sports.

I sure hope that 1 or 2 guys evince the sort of "constitution of relentlessness" that we saw the last couple of years from 3S. It's clear to me that K thinks Thornton is relentless, and that's among the reasons K has said, "We just play better when Tyler is on the floor."

But Tyler's productivity isn't traditional stat-stuffing. Now, we have perhaps 4 guys [Seth, Ryan, Mason, Austin], any one, or several, of whom might develop into consistent stat-stuffers. But clearly, as this season begins, we have no one who is as proven as relentlessly productive - stat-wise, leadership-wise, street-wise - as 3S in Nov 2009 and 2S in Nov 2010. Nor, as good as he is already, is Austin quite as ready to provide the consistent relentlessness [probably a redundundancy....] that we know Kyrie showed from day one.

I doubt that any of the 4 I've mentioned will rise perceptibly "above the radar" consistently. So, I'm hoping that, in pretty much every game, 2 of those 4 will stuff stats, and will be abetted by solid stats in particular games from Miles and Andre.

Tyler is relentless. [K said last year on his TV show that Tyler would be a leader.]. Seth just might have enough steel. Austin wants to have it. Ryan is sneaky-multi-good, but goofy-woofing after a thunder-dunk [Belmont game] hardly constitutes steel. Mason break-out? Consistency? Can't tell. He needs to get in more fights with his little brother, who, redshirt or no, will lead the team in attitude, with an impish smile on his face. Mason needs to play happy-mean.

Relentlessness-by-committee perhaps bespeaks inconsistency more than consistency. I'm a little worried - having absolutely nothing to do with the Belmont game, as I think Belmont will make waves this season - but not enough to expect anything less than 30+ wins.

Truly loony.

superdave
11-22-2011, 09:51 AM
Coach K is using a first half rotation that gives minutes to Josh and Quinn, and a second half rotation that does not use them. Remains to be seen whether Murphy or Gbinije carves out a consistent role.

Vs. Tennessee Coach K went to a 2-3 zone in the final two minutes for one, maybe two possessions, knowing that TN needed 3-point shots and would run sets to get them. Good curveball.

When our opponent gets on a roll, we've seen the soft, 1-2-2, three-quarter court press to slow down the offense and we've seen Tyler come in to pressure the ball full court. I really like both of these. I will be interested to see if we might use Gbinije and do more pressing and trapping at times, particularly if we're down 4-5 baskets.

In the spread offense, we do not have a dominant ball handler, but we have seen Seth, Austin and Ryan handle the ball a decent bit.

Austin can get to the rim. Period. Better decisions and better finishing are forthcoming. I feel confident in this.

Billy Dat
11-30-2011, 11:55 AM
Newton_14 - I hope you will continue to tackle the grunt work of these Phase posts as, per your intro, Phase 1 is over. After last night, there are certainly a lot of points to discuss and debate. I will wait for your response/Phase 2 thread start, but I think there's two ways to interpret Phase 1 vis-a-vis last night's drubbing in Columbus.

Option 1 - last night was an aberration not to be taken too seriously
Option 2 - while it doesn't seem like anyone could have beaten Ohio State last night, it proved that our Maui ceiling does not put us in the same league as the top echelon of teams. As such, we can expect to see a good deal more tinkering with everything, especially the rotation and depth chart, as the coaching staff attempts to raise the team's ceiling.

Personally, I think Option 2 is more likely.

roywhite
11-30-2011, 12:09 PM
Newton_14 - I hope you will continue to tackle the grunt work of these Phase posts as, per your intro, Phase 1 is over. After last night, there are certainly a lot of points to discuss and debate. I will wait for your response/Phase 2 thread start, but I think there's two ways to interpret Phase 1 vis-a-vis last night's drubbing in Columbus.

Option 1 - last night was an aberration not to be taken too seriously
Option 2 - while it doesn't seem like anyone could have beaten Ohio State last night, it proved that our Maui ceiling does not put us in the same league as the top echelon of teams. As such, we can expect to see a good deal more tinkering with everything, especially the rotation and depth chart, as the coaching staff attempts to raise the team's ceiling.

Personally, I think Option 2 is more likely.


Yeah, I agree with you on Option 2; students of Coach K know that he is more prone to saying "here's to never forgetting tonight" than "here's to forgetting tonight".

And nearly all the options come into play...just to list

1. Team Defense
2. Rotation
3. Austin Rivers
4. Big Man Offense
5. Andre Dawkins
6. Lack of Traditional PG
7. Leadership, Chemistry, Communication
8. Health

Some of these are positives, Health is not a big factor so far (knock on wood), and some defintely need to be addressed.

A very successful Phase 1 with a very bad ending.....that's good timing IMO.
Coach K, the staff, and the team can now analyze, adjust, and become better through practice.
They've accomplished a lot, but will be reminded by the tOSU loss how far they still have to go.

gwlaw99
11-30-2011, 12:22 PM
This is probably an over reaction to one game, but maybe we need to convert Austin to point instead of converting Seth to point. Seth doesn't get that many assists and he can't take people off the dribble. Austin had several nice assists and continues to show more willingness to pass each game. He is also cutting down his turnovers and charges. If we run the offense through Austin, K can design plays to get people open at specific spots off Austin's drives instead of Austin having to ad lib every time he enters the lane.

If we are going to win a National Championship, it will be because Austin becomes the player we all know he can be and he makes the rest of the team better by opening up easy shots for them. Might as well start getting him into that role as soon as possible. The only thing that matters to me other than beating Carolina is winning 2 games. The ACC championship game and the NCAA championship game. If we are goint to get there it is going to be by going through Rivers.

Big Pappa
11-30-2011, 12:28 PM
This is probably an over reaction to one game, but maybe we need to convert Austin to point instead of converting Seth to point. Seth doesn't get that man assists and he can't take people off the dribble. Austin had several nice assists and continues to show more willingness to pass each game. He is also cutting down his turnovers and charges. If we run the offense through Austin, K can design plays to get people open at specific spots off Austin's drives instead of Austin having to ad lib every time he enters the lane.

I have to disagree here simply because I don't think that you can think of anyone on this team as a true PG. Seth is very much a faux-PG who K is using like he used Jon in 2010. IMO, if we put AR at the point, we are going to look a lot like how we looked at points in the game last night - standing around watching Austin try to beat 2-3 guys off the dribble.

If we are going to be successful this season we obviously need to improve on many things already listed in this thread, but a huge one is Austin's ability to play without the ball in his hands.

NSDukeFan
11-30-2011, 12:38 PM
I have to disagree here simply because I don't think that you can think of anyone on this team as a true PG. Seth is very much a faux-PG who K is using like he used Jon in 2010. IMO, if we put AR at the point, we are going to look a lot like how we looked at points in the game last night - standing around watching Austin try to beat 2-3 guys off the dribble.

If we are going to be successful this season we obviously need to improve on many things already listed in this thread, but a huge one is Austin's ability to play without the ball in his hands.

I think that a 7-1 record was fantastic for this phase, though obviously the last game did not go how we would have hoped. I also think that it would be best to not over-react to 1 poor game by Seth, who has otherwise been very consistent. I also believe that Craft had something to do with his poor game and Seth likely won't play against as good a defensive player for the rest of the year. I like having Austin off the ball and continuing to learn movement without the ball and using his explosiveness more to score, while improving his distributing.

jipops
11-30-2011, 12:43 PM
Newton_14 - I hope you will continue to tackle the grunt work of these Phase posts as, per your intro, Phase 1 is over. After last night, there are certainly a lot of points to discuss and debate. I will wait for your response/Phase 2 thread start, but I think there's two ways to interpret Phase 1 vis-a-vis last night's drubbing in Columbus.

Option 1 - last night was an aberration not to be taken too seriously
Option 2 - while it doesn't seem like anyone could have beaten Ohio State last night, it proved that our Maui ceiling does not put us in the same league as the top echelon of teams. As such, we can expect to see a good deal more tinkering with everything, especially the rotation and depth chart, as the coaching staff attempts to raise the team's ceiling.

Personally, I think Option 2 is more likely.

I don't think last night was a total aberration but I don't think it should be taken seriously, not as a fan at least. We have all been aware, or should have been previously aware, of this team's shortcomings on defense. I really don't think they are alarmingly bad shortcomings, after all, even after last night we are still in the kenpom top 20 of defensive efficiency. In my opinion, last night showed that we can really stink defensively when we're road weary. I don't think that makes us any different than most anyone else. There are many teams in the country capable of blowing us out when we're in that situation.

Taking the sum of the games that have been played so far, are there any new roles being discovered? Cook has shown an ability to get the offense initiated and capably handle the ball. This is giving him minutes. Kelly (last night aside) has shown he can be a reliable scorer and is actually a good help defender. Curry can be a ridiculously efficient scoring threat from the perimeter. Curry has been able to adjust on the fly whether it's a Curry/Rivers backcourt or a Curry/Thornton backcourt. This should not be discounted. Austin's drives get us to the ft line and yet at times can waste a possession. Mason is unquestionably our man in the paint and can physically challenge anyone on the college level.

At this point I think our defense needs much more tinkering than our offense. Some may harp on the amount of touches a big man gets in the paint or how many post moves a big has during a given game, but does that really need to be the focus at this time? We still need some type of identity on defense (containment?, passing lanes?) before we can just start focusing on the overall balance of the offense. If we can attain that identity then maybe we are better able to fight through any fatigue or weariness to challenge the potent offense of our opponent. Because we will be in somewhat similar situations again.

Kedsy
11-30-2011, 12:53 PM
We still need some type of identity on defense (containment?, passing lanes?) before we can just start focusing on the overall balance of the offense.

I agree with this. The way to win games like last night's (or at least keep them close) is to clamp down on defense, and we weren't able to do that. The bigs had all they could handle and we needed the perimeter players to wreak havoc, cause turnovers, and generally disrupt our opponents, but that didn't happen at all.

Good thing we have the best defensive coach in the country to tinker with it.

MChambers
11-30-2011, 01:18 PM
I agree with this. The way to win games like last night's (or at least keep them close) is to clamp down on defense, and we weren't able to do that. The bigs had all they could handle and we needed the perimeter players to wreak havoc, cause turnovers, and generally disrupt our opponents, but that didn't happen at all.

Good thing we have the best defensive coach in the country to tinker with it.
Many of us here were worried about the defense before the season, and so far the defense hasn't been up to usual Duke standards (it's down to #18 or so in Pomeroy). It will be interesting to see what adjustments the coaches make, both in terms of team approach and in playing time for individual players.

There just isn't anybody on the team that is a terrific one-on-one defender. Thornton's a very good team defense player, and Mason has shown spurts, but overall it's hard to see who leads this team on defense.

Last year, Nolan and Kyle were terrific on defense.

gwlaw99
11-30-2011, 01:21 PM
I have to disagree here simply because I don't think that you can think of anyone on this team as a true PG. Seth is very much a faux-PG who K is using like he used Jon in 2010. IMO, if we put AR at the point, we are going to look a lot like how we looked at points in the game last night - standing around watching Austin try to beat 2-3 guys off the dribble.

If we are going to be successful this season we obviously need to improve on many things already listed in this thread, but a huge one is Austin's ability to play without the ball in his hands.

I know this sounds like a huge over reaction, but I am trying to look at our offense long term (defense is completely different issue that needs to be addressed as well) in order to win a National Championship. The team is very good now and will continue to be very good if we stay on the same path. We will beat a lot of teams off our three point shooting off ball screens and Mason's offensive improvement. Seth is doing fine at pseudo point, and his experience made it no question that he would have the ball in his hands to start the season, but I don't think it is the most efficient use of our resources at this point. He doesn't get many assists and he doesn't break down defenses. Seth is great moving without the ball/coming off screens and Austin is great with the ball in his hands so why reverse the natural order of things? It doesn't mean Austin shouldn't move better without the ball, it just means we should play to our strengths like we did with Seth and Nolan last year.

The best way for us to beat smothering athletic defenses like Ohio State is have Austin break down the defenses and have set plays (so the other 4 guys don't just watch) to get our shooters/bigs open off that penetration. If we can't get our 3 point shooters open we are going to keep getting beat by elite athletic defenses who crowd our shooters knowing we can't penetrate. In other words, to beat the top teams we need to thrust Austin into the role of facilitator and play maker. Austin has continuously improved his play making since China. He needs to be groomed to be in Nolan's role by the end of the season. Is he completely ready for that role right now? No, but the sooner he gets adjusted the better.

ChicagoHeel
11-30-2011, 01:52 PM
I was going to post this in the OSU post-game threat, but decided this is a better place. What happened to Kelly last night? He is a ghost in the box score. I only saw the second half and barely recall seeing him.

My sense of Duke this year that the team has some obvious strengths (e.g. outside shooting) and some areas that are probably going to remain stubbornly weaker than previous Duke teams (i.e. defense). There are three things that would make you a serious FF/ NC threat- consistent scoring from the inside, Rivers becoming an efficient scorer, and Kelly consistently playing at the level he did early in the season. You get just two of those three and, even if the defense is a bit suspect, you will go deep. Mason looks much improved and I suspect Rivers will come on strong in the second half of ACC play, but I have less of a sense about Kelly. Was last night an aberration or cause for concern?

roywhite
11-30-2011, 01:56 PM
The best way for us to beat smothering athletic defenses like Ohio State is have Austin break down the defenses and have set plays (so the other 4 guys don't just watch) to get our shooters/bigs open off that penetration. If we can't get our 3 point shooters open we are going to keep getting beat by elite athletic defenses who crowd our shooters knowing we can't penetrate. In other words, to beat the top teams we need to thrust Austin into the role of facilitator and play maker. Austin has continuously improved his play making since China. He needs to be groomed to be in Nolan's role by the end of the season. Is he completely ready for that role right now? No, but the sooner he gets adjusted the better.

You might just be right.

Actually, I have confidence that Coach K will evaluate that sort of change in responsibilities.
He makes big adjustments well into the season if he thinks they will help the team.
Interesting to see if this comes to pass.

Kedsy
11-30-2011, 02:16 PM
I was going to post this in the OSU post-game threat, but decided this is a better place. What happened to Kelly last night? He is a ghost in the box score. I only saw the second half and barely recall seeing him.

My sense of Duke this year that the team has some obvious strengths (e.g. outside shooting) and some areas that are probably going to remain stubbornly weaker than previous Duke teams (i.e. defense). There are three things that would make you a serious FF/ NC threat- consistent scoring from the inside, Rivers becoming an efficient scorer, and Kelly consistently playing at the level he did early in the season. You get just two of those three and, even if the defense is a bit suspect, you will go deep. Mason looks much improved and I suspect Rivers will come on strong in the second half of ACC play, but I have less of a sense about Kelly. Was last night an aberration or cause for concern?

Ryan only played 1 minute in the 2nd half. He was guarding Sullinger much of the first half, probably wore down a little, and couldn't get going on offense. The game was out of hand and probably K saw no reason to put him back in. I suspect it was an aberration.

jv001
11-30-2011, 03:30 PM
I know this sounds like a huge over reaction, but I am trying to look at our offense long term (defense is completely different issue that needs to be addressed as well) in order to win a National Championship. The team is very good now and will continue to be very good if we stay on the same path. We will beat a lot of teams off our three point shooting off ball screens and Mason's offensive improvement. Seth is doing fine at pseudo point, and his experience made it no question that he would have the ball in his hands to start the season, but I don't think it is the most efficient use of our resources at this point. He doesn't get many assists and he doesn't break down defenses. Seth is great moving without the ball/coming off screens and Austin is great with the ball in his hands so why reverse the natural order of things? It doesn't mean Austin shouldn't move better without the ball, it just means we should play to our strengths like we did with Seth and Nolan last year.The best way for us to beat smothering athletic defenses like Ohio State is have Austin break down the defenses and have set plays (so the other 4 guys don't just watch) to get our shooters/bigs open off that penetration. If we can't get our 3 point shooters open we are going to keep getting beat by elite athletic defenses who crowd our shooters knowing we can't penetrate. In other words, to beat the top teams we need to thrust Austin into the role of facilitator and play maker. Austin has continuously improved his play making since China. He needs to be groomed to be in Nolan's role by the end of the season. Is he completely ready for that role right now? No, but the sooner he gets adjusted the better.

I agree with most of your post. Defense will win championships and for sure we are a work in progress. As for Austin having the ball in his hands, I agree we need set plays so that the other guys just don't stand around. We have the coach that can work that out. But as for the defense, I'm not as confident. Perimeter defense so far has been sub par for Duke and until Ohio State it had not cost us a win. I liked what I saw from Hairston and Michael G, but we will not get as much offense as we would from Andre. Maybe this: Austin, Seth, Ryan, Josh/Michael G.and Mason. That would leave Andre, Miles, Quinn and Tyler off the bench. I feel confident Coach K will have it figured out by tournament time. GoDuke!

superdave
11-30-2011, 03:40 PM
We will beat a lot of teams off our three point shooting off ball screens and Mason's offensive improvement. Seth is doing fine at pseudo point, and his experience made it no question that he would have the ball in his hands to start the season, but I don't think it is the most efficient use of our resources at this point. He doesn't get many assists and he doesn't break down defenses. Seth is great moving without the ball/coming off screens and Austin is great with the ball in his hands so why reverse the natural order of things? It doesn't mean Austin shouldn't move better without the ball, it just means we should play to our strengths like we did with Seth and Nolan last year.

The best way for us to beat smothering athletic defenses like Ohio State is have Austin break down the defenses and have set plays (so the other 4 guys don't just watch) to get our shooters/bigs open off that penetration. If we can't get our 3 point shooters open we are going to keep getting beat by elite athletic defenses who crowd our shooters knowing we can't penetrate. In other words, to beat the top teams we need to thrust Austin into the role of facilitator and play maker. Austin has continuously improved his play making since China. He needs to be groomed to be in Nolan's role by the end of the season. Is he completely ready for that role right now? No, but the sooner he gets adjusted the better.

I think we have seen this to a large extent. Seth brings the ball up, but both Seth and Austin initiate the offense. When Tyler or Quinn are in with Seth, they initiate the offense. Practically the point guard/initiator in our offense either calls and starts the play or withdraws to the top to reset the offense. But there's no reason Seth cannot do this and still move and relocate to get shots, should the play evolve a couple more passes. I dont think Seth is or will be limited by point responsibilities this season. I think he needs more time to grow into it, and I think the other guys need to figure out their roles as well. This is a chemistry issue to me, not one of capability. And by chemistry I mean timing, reading each other, execution and the understanding that you are no longer a role player.

Kedsy
11-30-2011, 05:08 PM
Maybe this: Austin, Seth, Ryan, Josh/Michael G.and Mason. That would leave Andre, Miles, Quinn and Tyler off the bench. I feel confident Coach K will have it figured out by tournament time. GoDuke!

I'm not sure 16 minutes of garbage time for Mike G is enough to say he deserves to be in the starting lineup. And we have yet to see any evidence that Josh is capable of guarding small forwards (last night he guarded Ohio State's "4"). Also, since history suggests K won't play more than 8 in the regular rotation (and usually not more than 7), then assuming Miles and Andre will stay in the rotation, putting Mike or Josh in the rotation would probably knock Tyler or Quinn (or both) out of it (as well as whoever of Mike or Josh doesn't start).

So, to me, this proposed lineup doesn't seem practical. At least not now. If Mike G becomes a defensive stopper (which he clearly isn't yet), then I might change my tune.

Saratoga2
11-30-2011, 05:51 PM
There are a lot of guys folks on this board who have watched Duke over the years and also have basketball experience and savvy. We can see whether a player makes a solid or errant pass, whether he is stripped of the ball, has happy feet or good moves, can shoot and use a shot fake, how they can elevate, etc. We can see the type of defense being played and where people are to where we think they should be. What we don't know for sure is what the coaches have told the guys to do, so they are in a much better position to understand what is going on during the game.

Last night we saw guys who were unable to execute at the level of competition, whether it was staying in front of their man or getting a shot off, getting rebounds, etc. The coaches could see what was working and who seemed overmatched. At least we could see from the moves made by coach K, that he was dissatisfied with the play of some individuals and was willing to play others to see if they could do a better job at that level of competition. Clearly some of the freshmen are very talented and some of the other players who haven't been getting a lot of time need to be looked at in the context of a competitive game situation.

I don't think that will result in the demotion of certain individuals, however it will give the coaches further flexibility going into the next group of games, which appear to be softer than the past few. Some of what I saw last night along that line included:

Quinn Cook has a good handle and is a decent ball distributor. He is still a freshman but appears to be as skilled at distribution as Seth. Seth of course is a better scorer. Tyler is said by coach K to be the best defender of the guards, but his game was not impressive against the OSU level of competition.

Josh Hairston is a rugged player who can come into a game and lend intensity and some scoring abllity when things aren't going well. He isn't a rugged 6'10" like Miles, nor is he as clever as Ryan with the ball, but under the right circumstances, he can provide meaningful minutes.

Michael came in to play bigger athletic players that Andre was having trouble handling and certainly couldn't shoot against. Michael seems like a reasonable alternative under some circumstances, but clearly no one else will match Andre's shot when he is open.

Alex didn't play again. It is hard to understand what is going on there. He has size, athletic ability and can handle the ball. He must not be doing so well in practice to be totally excluded from play.

Coach K can certainly experiment with lineups in the upcoming games. Let us hope that being crushed by OSU will encourage him to broaden his lineup with the aim of optimizing play, especially against the most gifted teams. While he probably has been doing that already, it wasn't until the OSU game that there was strong evidence of that happening.

Newton_14
11-30-2011, 10:17 PM
Right out of the gate, I am going to state that while last night hurt our feelings, this was a very successful Phase and no way I am letting the last game be the focus. Going into these 8 games I was expecting at best 6-2, most likely 5-3, and possibly 4-4. If someone had told me we would finish the Phase 7-1 I would have jumped for joy.
Last night does not erase what was accomplished in the first 7 games. It also did not “expose” anything. We knew before game 1 the perimeter defense is suspect, and teams that could defend the perimeter well, would give us trouble. College Basketball is a weird animal and I have seen last nights “movie” many times before. Not just Duke movies either. A weak Ga Tech team blew out the Heels last year by 20 in January. You saw the ending in that movie. I have watched Duke beat UVA by 35 in CIS, then lose at their place. Just how it goes in College Hoops sometimes. I am not minimizing the bad play, but last night was much more about Ohio St playing a near perfect game, against a Duke team that simply did not come to play, than anything else. Our defense needs work, but it’s not as bad as we showed last night. Same for our offense. Don’t let one game define the Phase let alone the season.

That said, here is my assessment of Phase I. Just like last year we are tag-teaming this work while Jumbo is on a semi-break. We are not Jumbo, and don’t claim to be. Hopefully he comes back next year. Bob Green will do the honors in Phase II and I will be back to author a later Phase. Thanks for reading and please comment. This is about generating good discussion about the team as much as anything else.

1) Team Defense
Well, I was right in that the perimeter defense is not up to par, and though we played really good defense at times, we still struggle to stop dribble penetration. However I was wrong in predicting we would dial it back to containment. At least in this phase anyway. I guarantee you that K is focused on fixing the issues on the perimeter defense though. There is much work to do there. We need to defend big wings better, and make it more difficult to feed the post. Still searching for someone who can pressure the ball at the point better. That may be a case of "it is what it is". I did feel that our bigs defended well during this phase and slowly got better at blocking shots. Mason did not give an inch to Sully nor anyone else. Ryan has improved his post defense, and Miles is solid defender in the post, especially against the bigger centers. Rotations were better than I thought we would see, though they could still get better, especially Mason and Ryan. But that’s picking nits. We are clearly not where we need to be defensively but we can get better. Gbinije played well last night. If he can come on as a defender he could be an asset to the wing defense. He did not play scared last night in a very hostile environment which I took as a good sign for him. Something to watch moving forward.

(2) Rotation
Last night not withstanding, Andre played solid, especially against the BCS opponents (K was tinkering in the Davidson game so don’t read too much into that.). However, in this Phase, Tyler was his backup. Tyler had a great phase, but I think we need one of Gbinije or Murph to be Andre’s normal backup. I would rather Tyler backup Seth and Austin. Going small at times is fine. Last night was not one of those times. So the starting lineup became, Seth, Austin, Andre, Ryan, Mason. Miles rotated with Ryan and Mason, and Josh only got spot minutes and a couple of DNP’s. Quinn backed up Seth. In the tougher games K went with mainly a 7 man rotation and even 6 in one game. In the blowout games he went 10 deep. Murphy was a DNP due to the injury. He is supposed to play again in December according to the sources in the know. Coming out of this phase it appears 8 guys will play every game but only 7 are guaranteed to see the floor in the 2nd half of every game. The 5 starters plus Tyler & Miles. Quinn I think will play in every game but his minutes will be up and down. Gbinije and Murphy are still the unknowns but I loved how Gbinije competed last night. Still, K is K, and minutes are not plentiful. K could settle on 8, but 9 would be a stretch. Phase II will be where Quinn, Mike, Alex, and Josh get playing time. Come January, I think it shrinks to 8 guys most of the time.

(3) Austin Rivers
I thought Austin improved game over game throughout the phase. He is learning to drive and dish, which is critical, and he is getting better on defense. The guy is a freak at getting into the lane. Can’t stop him. The downside is there is still too much dribbling with 4 guys watching. Once he finds the right balance between, limited dribbling, driving to finish, swinging the ball on around the horn with no dribbling, driving to dish, and finally when to shoot the 3, he will be a beast. Sounds like a lot but Austin is working hard and is a great study. Plus he wants to improve. K has sat him when he was off track and I thought he responded well every time especially at the end of the Kansas game when he sat for Tyler. That was big. Austin was happy for Tyler and I was happy for Austin. Great teammate. Soon to be great college player. He will make mistakes along the way, and it is critical that Austin scores within the offense, but at the end of the day he is going to be a dynamic player. I am convinced K finds a way to strike the right balance with Austin's scoring ability as a normal part of the offense, and we will see stretches where Austin simply takes over a game in the "right way", and blows a game open.

(4) Big Man Offense
This was the brightest bulb in the box in my opinion. Don’t tell anyone (especially Wheat:)), but Duke has inside scoring. Against the best of the best teams. We just witnessed the Mason Plumlee coming out party. Dude is getting it done in the paint, averaging a double-double. He has a partner in Ryan Kelly. Last night was an anomaly for Ryan. Ryan will bounce back and be the player we saw in Maui. Miles was inconsistent but did make contributions at key times. Miles needs to be "The Finisher". Meaning off the pick and roll like the beautiful play in the first half last night, and off the draw and dish, like the play in the 2nd half last night where Austin fed him on the baseline and Miles threw down the big dunk. That is where Miles can help this team on offense. A 3 headed monster. Miles the finisher, Mason the guy on the block demanding the ball for a post move, and Kelly the stretch 4, scoring off drives, 3's, and the occasional post up of some poor, hapless, unexpecting chap. We have a very solid 3 man rotation with an improving Josh Hairston backing them up. Josh has the very effective mid-range jumper. So call him "The Surpriser". Defenders layoff him cause they think he is a scrub. They shake their heads in disbelief when he hits the 3rd jumper in a row.;) On a serious note, I could not be happier with our inside play. Even last night. I think they will get even better as the year goes on, and we get into conference play.


(5) Andre Dawkins
Up until last night, I was pleased with Andre on the whole. He was up and down scoring wise, but not all of that is attributable to him. There were games we did not look for him enough. He can score in bunches when he gets it going and we get him the ball. He can still pull a Houdini though. He has to fix that. On defense, he was much more consistent. Had a bad night last evening, but like Ryan, I feel Andre will bounce back. If he will work to get open, possession after possession, game after game, and we get him the ball, I think he will average double figures. It’s on him though. One thing he did show, is “clutch-ness”. Against Belmont and Kansas he hit huge 3’s with time running out and everything on the line. That is huge in my book. It takes a special player to hit shots under that kind of pressure. So Andre has the skillset, and he has the moxie. Consistency is the main/only/absolute must/hugely important thing for from Andre moving into Phase II. The team needs his consistency vs flashes.

(6) Lack of Traditional Point Guard
This has been much debated and for fair reasons. I still think Seth is the best option and Quinn needs more time to develop. Seth played well up until last night. I still have high confidence in Seth. Craft is a great defender, but not everyone has a Craft and certainly no one in the conference has one. I plead with you to not let one game define a player or a season. Overall, Seth played great in Phase I. Needs to improve decision making closing out games, but did a good job of balancing his role of managing the team and getting his points. I know this will be debated, likely all year, but unless Quinn can fast track his development, I feel we are better with Seth at the point. K will tinker, especially after last night, but Seth is a player, and will keep the PG reins until someone outplays him consistently in practice and then in games. I just do not see that happening anytime soon. Like the others and the team as a whole, I think it would be hugely unfair to judge Seth soley on last night. He played outstanding in the first 7. He got knocked down last night, but I have zero doubts Seth will bounce back strong from that one bad outing. Let's have this discussion again at the end of Phase II and see where things stand.

(7) Leadership, Chemistry, and Communication
I like the Chemistry the team has built in 8 games. They look like a close-knit group pulling hard for each other whether in the game or on the bench. Check mark there. Communication on the court has been good, but can get even better. Mason is becoming a vocal leader on the court and showed that last night in the worst of adversity. Ryan has also stepped up in Leadership. I still feel Seth is the true leader and it hurt not to see him on the court in the 2nd half last night. Again though, judge the guys off 8 games, not 1 game.

Of all the things that were disappointing last night, the one thing that disappointed me the most, was that no one on the bench went off on anybody. In fairness, you see a lot more when you are at a game vs watching on TV, so it could be that it happened and the camera’s did not show it. But, I did not see it. Remember the 74-47 game at Clemson? Lance Thomas in the huddle during a timeout and was livid. In his teammates faces letting them know that getting blown out is not acceptable. Slamming a towel down over and over and yelling at the top of his lungs. Someone has to be that guy, and someone should have been that guy last night. Again, my apologies if it happened and I missed it. My vote is Tyler, but it has to be someone, and to be honest, it should be one of the 3 captains.

(8) Health
As for health, we lost Murphy due to the concussion, but other than that we made it through Phase I unscathed. Praying for more of that.

So that is my imperfect take on how the Phase went, and where things stand. 7-1 is sweet for this particular team and I am encouraged. They are going to win a ton of games and it bears repeating this is going to be a fun team to watch develop. Especially if some of the freshman develop faster than expected. I would encourage all to enjoy it game by game, enjoying the ride, and not focusing on the end so much that you miss the journey.

ncexnyc
11-30-2011, 11:23 PM
I truly appreciate the time and effort you've put into this write-up.

I agree that it's best not to put to much stock into the last game of this phase and I too and extremely pleased that we lost only one game during this most difficult stretch.

I don't believe we've got a set line-up at this point in time and I honestly think several of the new players have a really great chance of making their mark on this team. I feel that come March our starting 5 will look vastly different than it is now.

Kedsy
11-30-2011, 11:41 PM
I feel that come March our starting 5 will look vastly different than it is now.

Who do you think will drop out of the rotation?

uh_no
11-30-2011, 11:44 PM
Who do you think will drop out of the rotation?

Mason, for obvious reasons.
Kelly, great matchup problems
miles, he's a tough big with crazy ups
hairston, he was knocking down the 18' shot last night like a champ
marshall, can you imagine the nightmares he'd give to the opposing point guard with a 1' height advantage???

COYS
12-01-2011, 09:53 AM
(5) Andre Dawkins
Up until last night, I was pleased with Andre on the whole. He was up and down scoring wise, but not all of that is attributable to him. There were games we did not look for him enough. He can score in bunches when he gets it going and we get him the ball. He can still pull a Houdini though. He has to fix that. On defense, he was much more consistent. Had a bad night last evening, but like Ryan, I feel Andre will bounce back. If he will work to get open, possession after possession, game after game, and we get him the ball, I think he will average double figures. It’s on him though. One thing he did show, is “clutch-ness”. Against Belmont and Kansas he hit huge 3’s with time running out and everything on the line. That is huge in my book. It takes a special player to hit shots under that kind of pressure. So Andre has the skillset, and he has the moxie. Consistency is the main/only/absolute must/hugely important thing for from Andre moving into Phase II. The team needs his consistency vs flashes.



I think Andre can be better on the defensive glass, as well. He has the strength and leaping ability to do better than his current paltry 4.8% rebound rate, even if he's often matched up against taller players. He regularly misses box-out assignments, which is causing him to be beaten to rebounds he should have. I obviously don't expect him to become a beast on the glass, or anything, but I think if his rebounding improves a little bit, it will show that he's staying focused throughout the play on defense. It seems that he's still learning how to focus relentlessly on every single play for every minute of the game on both sides of the ball. He can get there, but he still has some work to do. I have complete confidence that the staff is working hard with him to make sure he's improving in these areas.

jv001
12-01-2011, 10:23 AM
Good job Newton-14 on your wrap up of Phase I. Team defense: the perimeter defense has not been up to Duke standards so far. Seth, Austin, Tyler, Quinn and Andre have had trouble in on the ball defense. I've seen improvement in Austin and Quinn but not so much in the other 3 players. They just don't seem to be quick enough to stay in front of their man. As for big man defense, I'm very pleased with the way Mason, Miles, Ryan and Josh have played defense. Maybe the dialing it back to containment is a good idea. We know that Duke basketball starts and ends with defense. Coach K will figure it out. Just as he did in 2010. GoDuke!

Billy Dat
12-01-2011, 10:34 AM
Can't thank you guys enough for the effort and thought that go into these Phase posts.

The big picture, to me, is whether or not the staff thinks we need to make big changes to make a final four run, or do we just keep trying to hone what we already are doing?

-Defense is obviously Duke's calling card so it always has to be a primary focus. The OSU game crushed our KenPom defensive efficiency number, I don't think I've seen us ranked so low (18) in a long time. Of course, their performance was WAY above normal so our rank will shoot back up in the coming weeks. The containment vs ball pressure dynamic will be interesting to watch going forward. Whether or not the rotation changes will be a huge factor as practice and repetition are key to forming the kind of team defense Duke is known for - these guys have to be used to playing together as a unit.

-As Newton said, I think a major accomplishment of Phase I was establishing the low post offense. Mason has emerged as a real force, and, aside from the OSU game, Kelly has, too. I think the major issue is that our offense operates in disconnected silos, largely because Rivers hasn't shown that he can be effective in any way save for getting the ball 23 feet from the basket and going to work. I think we have looked the best when the offense runs through Mason or Ryan. Seth gets his points on 3s generated by high screens that he generally drives off, or redirects from the bigs, or midrange floaters off his own drives. Andre is catch and shoot. How radically will the staff try to adjust what we are doing offensively to create more cohesion?

Kedsy
12-01-2011, 12:04 PM
The OSU game crushed our KenPom defensive efficiency number, I don't think I've seen us ranked so low (18) in a long time.

Our final 2009 Pomeroy defensive ranking was 20th (it was 17th before the NCAAT and the disaster vs. Villanova). Seems like a long time but really not.

Billy Dat
12-01-2011, 12:19 PM
Our final 2009 Pomeroy defensive ranking was 20th (it was 17th before the NCAAT and the disaster vs. Villanova). Seems like a long time but really not.

Basketball seasons are like cat years, no? Actually, I think they help keep me young rather than age me.

I have seen the stat that most National Champs are ranked top 15 in both categories. That may be inevitable considering any champ has to be on a 6 game winning streak to end the year, but I always like to track that trend to see how title worthy we are as the year progresses. Looking at the most recent KenPom numbers, the following caught my eye, accepting small sample sizes as a given:

-Our current Non Conference strength of schedule was fifth, and the overall strength of our opponents is way ahead of anyone in the top 50 save for Belmont.
-Virginia's defense is currently ranked 8th
-Johnny D's Stanford squad is charting as high as I have seen them in year's, led by a 10th ranked defense

licc85
12-01-2011, 01:04 PM
I think we need one of our true SFs to step up and assume a starting role. Andre's shooting is definitely an asset, but as we witnessed in the OSU game, he can be completely shut down/unable to guard bigger wings like William Buford. I agree that Dre tends to lose focus when he doesn't get involved in the offense, so why not bring him off the bench to spell Seth /Austin and then run some set plays for him to try and get him a few wide open jumpers? A lot of good teams have that offensive spark off the bench. We do not. What we need is a good perimeter defender with length in the starting lineup. If Mike or Alex can step up in practice and prove that they are good enough to start, I think that would be a huge boon for our team. Especially Mike, who has the tools to become an elite defender.

I also agree with the previous posts indicating that Austin should probably be the "point guard" . . . Look, I know Seth is a much more savvy player and makes better decisions at this time, but he's just not quick enough to shed defenders on his own, and his ball handling is inferior compared to Austin's. Plus, he's proven that he's a natural at moving off the ball, and is probably tied for the best catch shoot guy on our team with Dre. (He might actually be better because he has more of a knack for getting open) Austin is clearly more effective with the ball in his hands. He will learn to become a better decision maker and distributor. He's already shown improvement in both areas. I obviously don't know crap compared to our coaching staff, and I'm sure they will make the best adjustments for our team, but this could work, I think they will at least try it.

CDu
12-01-2011, 01:29 PM
but as we witnessed in the OSU game, he can be completely shut down/unable to guard bigger wings like William Buford

I think the "tall wing defender" argument is not the issue with Dawkins. Remember that Buford is the same height (with roughly the same weight and athleticism) as Dawson of MSU, and Dawkins lit Dawson up. Neither Buford nor Dawson are all that vastly different in height than Dawkins either (both 6'6" to Dawkins' 6'4"). I think Dawkins' rough night against Buford had less to do with Buford's height and more to do with Buford's relentless coverage (as well as the relentless coverage on the other wings who would get Dawkins the ball).

licc85
12-01-2011, 01:34 PM
I think the "tall wing defender" argument is not the issue with Dawkins. Remember that Buford is the same height (with roughly the same weight and athleticism) as Dawson of MSU, and Dawkins lit Dawson up. Neither Buford nor Dawson are all that vastly different in height than Dawkins either (both 6'6" to Dawkins' 6'4"). I think Dawkins' rough night against Buford had less to do with Buford's height and more to do with Buford's relentless coverage (as well as the relentless coverage on the other wings who would get Dawkins the ball).

well yeah . . . I mean, I feel like I've never even heard of Dawson. Obviously, Buford is a much better defender, and I'm willing to bet he's more athletic as well. I'm just saying Andre struggles to contribute on offense or defense against a bigger, more athletic wing. I think once he gets frustrated and doesn't get involved, he kinda shuts it down and floats for the rest of the game. It's SO frustrating because we all know what he's capable of of, and it's torturous to watch him struggle like this. I just don't understand how JJ Redick was a smaller, less athletic guy with similar shooting skills, and managed to become the #2 all time scorer in ACC history, and Andre can't average double figures. Sigh.

roywhite
12-01-2011, 01:49 PM
One man's opinion of some deserved honors for Phase 1

Most Valuable Player
Mason Plumlee---he rebounds, he defends, and now he scores down low; showed well against Robinson from Kansas and Sullinger from tOSU--two of the best
High Honorable Mention---Seth Curry---dude is shooting 50% FG 50% 3-Pt and 92.9% FT

Most Valuable Player in Supporting Role
Tyler Thornton---Mr. Maui, has played solidly, with good defense, hustle, and some clutch plays

Rookie of the Year:
Austin Rivers---this guy is an impact player; can't take your eyes off him when he is on the floor; destined for great things

Bootsy Thornton Award for Outstanding Play by Opponent
Ohio State team---the so-called role players were almost as good as the stars; excellent overall performance

Do You Know Me?
Alex Murphy---man of mystery and intrigue
Michael Gbinije---Silent G has been almost Invisible G

Villain
Teddy Valentine---just the sight of him makes my skin crawl
That dude who wrote the compendium of recycled anti-Duke stuff when K approached the record; he shall remain nameless

Highlight Moment
Tyler Thornton from the corner vs Kansas---2-point lead, last minute, shot clock winding down, desperation heave....nothing but net! Classic
Coach K in an affectionate hug with mentor RMK at Madison Square Garden after breaking all-time wins record

DBR Poster
lots of quality depth here; gotta go with author of Phase 1, the scrappy PG from Granville County...Newton
High Honorable Mention---Wheat...greatly out-numbered, but he has game

CDu
12-01-2011, 01:49 PM
well yeah . . . I mean, I feel like I've never even heard of Dawson. Obviously, Buford is a much better defender, and I'm willing to bet he's more athletic as well. I'm just saying Andre struggles to contribute on offense or defense against a bigger, more athletic wing. I think once he gets frustrated and doesn't get involved, he kinda shuts it down and floats for the rest of the game. It's SO frustrating because we all know what he's capable of of, and it's torturous to watch him struggle like this.

Well, you've not probably heard of Dawson because he's a freshman. But he's a very talented freshman, and he's definitely similarly athletic to Buford. He's probably more athletic, though Buford is more skilled. He's a Jason Richardson type of athlete.

Again - I don't think it's so much an issue with the defender's height as much as it is an issue of the defender's effort. Dawkins does well when the defense gives him space. Leave him alone and he'll burn you. OSU didn't give us space. I think a similar lack of production would have occurred Kraft (a couple of inches shorter) guarded Dawkins and not Buford (though in that scenario, Curry might have had a much better night).

[QUOTE=licc85;533175]I just don't understand how JJ Redick was a smaller, less athletic guy with similar shooting skills, and managed to become the #2 all time scorer in ACC history, and Andre can't average double figures. Sigh.

Because Redick was a more versatile shooter, better ballhandler (even as a freshman), and had a better feel for how to get his shot. It's not all about height and athleticism. Miles Plumlee is taller and more athletic than Shelden Williams, for example.

UrinalCake
12-01-2011, 01:55 PM
An article linked from the main page mentioned that the season is only 20% over, yet our guys have played four games in China and Dubai, an emotional game in MSG for win 903, three games in Hawaii, and a tough road trip to OSU to go along with three home games and a couple exhibitions. They have literally traveled around the world. Not surprising that they were a little worn out for this latest game, mentally as much as physically.

So it's nice that they get a stretch of time to slow down and have lots of practice time. We have five straight games at home coming up. I was looking at the conference schedule and it appears to be front-loaded (though it's hard to know at this point exactly how good all of the other teams are). Our season finishes with games @BC, @FSU, vs. VT, @Wake, and vs. UNC. That's three road games, an always-potentially-dangerous VT, and of course UNC. So hopefully we'll find away to maintain intensity through the remainder of the season and can finish strong.

NSDukeFan
12-01-2011, 01:55 PM
well yeah . . . I mean, I feel like I've never even heard of Dawson. Obviously, Buford is a much better defender, and I'm willing to bet he's more athletic as well. I'm just saying Andre struggles to contribute on offense or defense against a bigger, more athletic wing. I think once he gets frustrated and doesn't get involved, he kinda shuts it down and floats for the rest of the game. It's SO frustrating because we all know what he's capable of of, and it's torturous to watch him struggle like this. I just don't understand how JJ Redick was a smaller, less athletic guy with similar shooting skills, and managed to become the #2 all time scorer in ACC history, and Andre can't average double figures. Sigh.

Perhaps jumping athleticism and a beautiful jumpshot are not the most important criteria in becoming a top scorer in the NCAA.

licc85
12-01-2011, 01:59 PM
Because Redick was a more versatile shooter, better ballhandler (even as a freshman), and had a better feel for how to get his shot. It's not all about height and athleticism. Miles Plumlee is taller and more athletic than Shelden Williams, for example.


Perhaps jumping athleticism and a beautiful jumpshot are not the most important criteria in becoming a top scorer in the NCAA.

I didn't imply that Dre should be an all-time type of scorer (perhaps the JJ comparison threw you off) . . . I'm just wondering why this is his 3rd year at Duke and he can't average double figures in scoring with his shooting skills. For me, this is not acceptable from someone who should be a leader on this very young team in desperate need of leadership. He really needs to step his game up and understand that he can longer be a role player. There's no doubt that he can do it, I just don't see the effort right now.

Kedsy
12-01-2011, 02:03 PM
well yeah . . . I mean, I feel like I've never even heard of Dawson. Obviously, Buford is a much better defender, and I'm willing to bet he's more athletic as well. I'm just saying Andre struggles to contribute on offense or defense against a bigger, more athletic wing. I think once he gets frustrated and doesn't get involved, he kinda shuts it down and floats for the rest of the game. It's SO frustrating because we all know what he's capable of of, and it's torturous to watch him struggle like this. I just don't understand how JJ Redick was a smaller, less athletic guy with similar shooting skills, and managed to become the #2 all time scorer in ACC history, and Andre can't average double figures. Sigh.

Actually, Dawson is considered quite athletic. He's just a freshman and not as good as the senior Buford.

The problem with putting Mike in for Andre is that even if Andre is "completely shut down," he still provides a lot more offense than Mike does (because Andre has to be guarded closely and at this point in his career, Mike really doesn't). So Mike for Andre would only make sense if Mike was an impact defender (like Craft, or Shane Battier or Billy King). Just being a good defender or a better defender than Andre isn't good enough justification, in my mind. And frankly, while Mike has the tools to be a great defender, at this stage I'm not at all sold that he's even better as a defender than Andre is.

I think we just have to be patient and give the team a chance to gel defensively.


I just don't see the effort right now.

I don't think it's a matter of effort. I think it's a combination of not being confident when he's closely guarded and his teammates not looking for him quickly enough when he's open. Against a good defender, a shooter has to get the ball the split-second he loses his man and if he doesn't it's too late to get a good shot off.

When JJ got open he got the ball, instantaneously, because his teammates were all watching him, waiting for him to get that sliver of daylight. Not saying Andre would be as good as JJ if his teammates were looking for him in the same way, but he would have a lot more points than he does. Several times against Ohio State he was open for a brief moment but the ball didn't come. Or it did come but not until the defender had closed. Against Michigan State, after he hit a couple the rest of the team started looking for Andre and he got the ball in time and he scored 26.

licc85
12-01-2011, 02:09 PM
I think we just have to be patient and give the team a chance to gel defensively.

You're right, of course . . . I've definitely been guilty of overreacting to a single game many times, but that was just a tough loss to watch. We've had a stellar season up to the last game, and I really thought we had an outside shot to beat the Buckeyes. I just don't think any of us expected THAT to happen.

NSDukeFan
12-01-2011, 02:09 PM
I didn't imply that Dre should be an all-time type of scorer (perhaps the JJ comparison threw you off) . . . I'm just wondering why this is his 3rd year at Duke and he can't average double figures in scoring. For me, this is not acceptable from someone who should be a leader on this team.

I thought you did imply that Dre should be the type of scorer that JJ was, though that may have been an exaggeration for effect. I expect Dre will average double digits in scoring this year and wouldn't take too much negative from a game where Duke got Duked by OSU. What I mean is Duke's offense looked very good coming in but OSU, by pressuring the perimeter the way they did, made Duke's offense look rather pedestrian. Andre (and Duke) will bounce back.

Wander
12-01-2011, 02:11 PM
I'm just wondering why this is his 3rd year at Duke and he can't average double figures in scoring with his shooting skills.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but you can play this game with everyone. Miles is an athletic almost-7 footer who's in his fourth year, so he should be averaging double digits points. Guess the expected scoring averages for individuals and add them all up and you end up having Duke averaging triple digit points...

I guess I'm not all that concerned with Andre's scoring average - the far bigger concern IMO is our perimeter defense (which includes Andre).

ncexnyc
12-01-2011, 02:20 PM
Who do you think will drop out of the rotation?
I'd be more than happy to share my thoughts on this, however before I do that, I'd love to hear why you feel each of our starters has that role.

nocilla
12-01-2011, 02:22 PM
So it's nice that they get a stretch of time to slow down and have lots of practice time. We have five straight games at home coming up. .

The Washington game is at MSG in NY. Although a lot of people will say that is a home game for Duke, it does require travel nonetheless.

Saratoga2
12-01-2011, 02:30 PM
It seems to me that we are untilizing an offense where Austin is given a screen near the left side of the court and can drive from either side of the screen, but mainly to the right to put pressure on the defense. This seems very similar to how we utilized Nolan as he would go to the basket to score or draw a foul. In Nolan's case he was more prone to drive into a crowd than Austin, who has fantastic ball skills but of course is still learning what his alternatives to penetrating are.

This approach seems to have become the majority of our offense but you wonder if we need to add a little more variety. I still like the idea of Ryan at the top of the key as an alternate approach to scoring. He was too well guarded against OSU but should often find either a shot from there or a pass inside or to our three point shooters.

Still another possibility might be with Quinn handling the ball. I believe he has the best handling skills on the team and may be able to cause defenses difficulty if he finds a way to penetrate. Obviously a dish to Mason these days is a good play off of penetration.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
12-01-2011, 02:32 PM
I'd be more than happy to share my thoughts on this, however before I do that, I'd love to hear why you feel each of our starters has that role.

Rivers - too talented not to play, getting better game by game, best penetration threat
Curry - Best scoring threat, becoming more of a vocal leader as well
Kelly - Most versatile player on the floor at any time, can take it to the rack or pop distance jumpers
Mason- Legitimate inside presence on both ends of the floor, holds his own against top big men in the nation

Dawkins? Is he the weakest link? I could see Cook or TT playing for him in a small line up with a true PG or defensive stopper. I don't think that counts as "drastically different" as far as a March line up goes, and I don't see the other four losing their starting roles, barring injury or a random "lesson" to Rivers.

What am I missing?

Kedsy
12-01-2011, 02:48 PM
I'd be more than happy to share my thoughts on this, however before I do that, I'd love to hear why you feel each of our starters has that role.

To me, the issue is more that if you take players who are not in the regular rotation and make them starters, then either the rotation is going to get bigger (which is unlikely given K's history) or someone currently in the rotation will drop out. In 2009, when Elliot Williams jumped into the starting lineup, Greg Paulus dropped out of the rotation entirely. In 2010, when Brian Zoubek joined the starting lineup, he was already in the rotation so that one wasn't so hard to envision.

This year, the rotation has been 7 people, arguably 8 if you count Quinn, though if you take out Davidson and Presbyterian he's averaging less than 5 minutes a game, so I really wouldn't count him as part of the rotation yet. Based on history, Coach K has usually settled on a 7-man rotation in close and/or tough games after Jan 1. Even expanding it to 8, that would mean one of: Austin/Seth/Mason/Ryan/Miles/Andre/Tyler/Quinn would have to drop out of the rotation entirely if Josh or Mike or Alex worked their way in. If the rotation becomes 7, as is K's norm, then two of them would have to drop out.

I don't think Miles or Andre will drop out of the rotation entirely. They're both too good and have too much short-term potential for that. So that leaves Tyler and Quinn. I assume that one of the big changes you envision involves Quinn getting more time, and even I'm wrong about that, if a guy who's averaging 7.6 minutes per game drops out of the rotation it wouldn't be a major change. Conceivably, Quinn or Mike or Alex could replace Tyler in the rotation, but Tyler has been exceptional in a limited defense and energy (and end of the shot clock) role so it would surprise me if his minutes dwindled too much. Plus, if he drops out it still wouldn't affect the starting lineup.

Absent injury, it's hard to imagine Seth or Mason or Austin or Ryan falling out of the rotation, so that brings us back to Miles and Andre. Miles isn't starting, so (like Tyler) if it's him that wouldn't affect the starting lineup. And I also can't imagine Josh or Alex being so good that K would drop our only senior, team captain, and (in my opinion) best post defender out of the rotation.

So that means we're left with Quinn or Mike or Alex replacing Andre in the starting lineup and replacing either Andre or Tyler (or both) in the rotation. First of all, in my opinion, a starting perimeter of Seth/Quinn/Austin is way too small and skinny and would tax our already-challenged defense beyond reasonable limits. A starting perimeter of Seth/Austin/Mike would probably be adequate defensively, but I haven't seen anything yet from Mike suggesting that this season he could provide enough defense to justify taking one or both of Andre and Tyler out of our rotation.

And that analysis is just for one change to the starting lineup. You stated your opinion that our starting lineup would look "vastly different," which to me suggests at least two lineup changes. I can think of two possibilities: either a starting perimeter of Quinn/Austin/Mike, with Seth and Andre coming off the bench and Tyler gone from the rotation, or going very small with Quinn/Austin/Seth/Mike or Alex/Mason, with Andre and Ryan coming off the bench and Tyler gone from the rotation. But both those lineups would include three freshmen starting (which would shock me, given our personnel) and both would be very small and defensively-challenged lineups. I don't think either of them are feasible possibilities.

OK, your turn.

superdave
12-01-2011, 03:22 PM
New pay wall...$19.95 for the year. Is it worth it? Or am I going to get fired at work for over-analyzing the college basketball season? Anyone have it and have a strong opinion of or against subscribing?

licc85
12-01-2011, 03:25 PM
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but you can play this game with everyone. Miles is an athletic almost-7 footer who's in his fourth year, so he should be averaging double digits points. Guess the expected scoring averages for individuals and add them all up and you end up having Duke averaging triple digit points...

I guess I'm not all that concerned with Andre's scoring average - the far bigger concern IMO is our perimeter defense (which includes Andre).

Miles is averaging 5.6 in 15.8 minutes a game, and shooting 59% from the floor.

Andre is averaging 8.9 points in 27.6 minutes a game and shooting 43%.

I'm sure Miles would be averaging close to double digit scoring (despite his lack of tremendous offensive weapons) if there were more minutes available up front. As is, he does many of the same things that Mason does, but Mason is clearly better, so he plays more. I have no problem with the way Miles is playing, he's doing well for the minutes he gets.

I agree that defense is a far more important concern at the moment, but Andre's role on this team is to score points. he's never been called a defensive stopper. If he's going to get close to 30 minutes a game, he needs to score more consistently and more efficiently.

jv001
12-01-2011, 04:00 PM
To me, the issue is more that if you take players who are not in the regular rotation and make them starters, then either the rotation is going to get bigger (which is unlikely given K's history) or someone currently in the rotation will drop out. In 2009, when Elliot Williams jumped into the starting lineup, Greg Paulus dropped out of the rotation entirely. In 2010, when Brian Zoubek joined the starting lineup, he was already in the rotation so that one wasn't so hard to envision.

This year, the rotation has been 7 people, arguably 8 if you count Quinn, though if you take out Davidson and Presbyterian he's averaging less than 5 minutes a game, so I really wouldn't count him as part of the rotation yet. Based on history, Coach K has usually settled on a 7-man rotation in close and/or tough games after Jan 1. Even expanding it to 8, that would mean one of: Austin/Seth/Mason/Ryan/Miles/Andre/Tyler/Quinn would have to drop out of the rotation entirely if Josh or Mike or Alex worked their way in. If the rotation becomes 7, as is K's norm, then two of them would have to drop out.

I don't think Miles or Andre will drop out of the rotation entirely. They're both too good and have too much short-term potential for that. So that leaves Tyler and Quinn. I assume that one of the big changes you envision involves Quinn getting more time, and even I'm wrong about that, if a guy who's averaging 7.6 minutes per game drops out of the rotation it wouldn't be a major change. Conceivably, Quinn or Mike or Alex could replace Tyler in the rotation, but Tyler has been exceptional in a limited defense and energy (and end of the shot clock) role so it would surprise me if his minutes dwindled too much. Plus, if he drops out it still wouldn't affect the starting lineup.

Absent injury, it's hard to imagine Seth or Mason or Austin or Ryan falling out of the rotation, so that brings us back to Miles and Andre. Miles isn't starting, so (like Tyler) if it's him that wouldn't affect the starting lineup. And I also can't imagine Josh or Alex being so good that K would drop our only senior, team captain, and (in my opinion) best post defender out of the rotation.

So that means we're left with Quinn or Mike or Alex replacing Andre in the starting lineup and replacing either Andre or Tyler (or both) in the rotation. First of all, in my opinion, a starting perimeter of Seth/Quinn/Austin is way too small and skinny and would tax our already-challenged defense beyond reasonable limits. A starting perimeter of Seth/Austin/Mike would probably be adequate defensively, but I haven't seen anything yet from Mike suggesting that this season he could provide enough defense to justify taking one or both of Andre and Tyler out of our rotation.

And that analysis is just for one change to the starting lineup. You stated your opinion that our starting lineup would look "vastly different," which to me suggests at least two lineup changes. I can think of two possibilities: either a starting perimeter of Quinn/Austin/Mike, with Seth and Andre coming off the bench and Tyler gone from the rotation, or going very small with Quinn/Austin/Seth/Mike or Alex/Mason, with Andre and Ryan coming off the bench and Tyler gone from the rotation. But both those lineups would include three freshmen starting (which would shock me, given our personnel) and both would be very small and defensively-challenged lineups. I don't think either of them are feasible possibilities.

OK, your turn.

You make valid points in your assesment of our rotation. In the end it looks like our best rotation is what we have now. Seth, Austin, Andre, Mason, Ryan, Tyler and Miles. That leaves a few minutes per game for, Quinn, Josh, Michael G and maybe Alex. Our weakest area is our perimeter defense and that needs to be addressed for us to be successful against the top teams. Which I'm sure Coach K has already figured out. All the players need to step up, but Andre is the key imho. I'm not worried about his offense, but I am concerned about his defense. Matter of fact all our guards need to step up and play better on the ball defense. As stated earlier, maybe dialing it back to containment defense is the answer. Mason, Ryan and Miles have shown they can play help defense pretty good. Just not on the perimeter. GoDuke!

Kedsy
12-01-2011, 04:13 PM
I'm just wondering why this is his 3rd year at Duke and he can't average double figures in scoring with his shooting skills.

First of all, Andre was averaging double figure scoring in the 7 games before the Ohio State game. And he did it with one of the lowest usage rates on the team (note that the usage table below is based on all 8 games):



Player Min FGA FTA TO Usage
------ --- --- --- -- ------
Austin 250 94 46 18 0.276
Quinn 67 20 9 4 0.218
Mason 250 61 46 23 0.217
Ryan 215 58 39 12 0.211
Miles 126 29 21 12 0.208
Seth 256 70 28 18 0.204
Josh 45 12 2 3 0.184
Todd Z 3 1 0 0 0.174
Andre 221 53 12 4 0.147
Mike 33 4 0 3 0.111
Tyler 134 13 10 8 0.099


Is Andre's absurdly low usage rate his fault? Or is some of the onus on his teammates for not getting him the ball? Probably a little of each, but considering how little Andre is used when he's on the court, I'd say his scoring is pretty darn good.

DukieInBrasil
12-01-2011, 04:48 PM
Is Andre's absurdly low usage rate his fault? Or is some of the onus on his teammates for not getting him the ball? Probably a little of each, but considering how little Andre is used when he's on the court, I'd say his scoring is pretty darn good.
I'd say it's more of Andre's issue than the team's. He doesn't seem to work hard enough for the ball or to demand it enough. Comparisons to JJ are a bit skewed imo due to the abundance of other scorers on this squad. But after enough time, if your teammates get accustomed to you not being there, they stop looking for you. Compounded with this is Andre's lack of handle so it's really hard for him to create anything. Further compounding this is his apparent lack of a mid-range game, as noted by others. If the O worked to get the ball to Andre as he was moving to the rim with a clear path, i think that could really get his general level of confidence up.
Basically, if Andre were more versatile he would get more usage.

superdave
12-01-2011, 05:14 PM
I'd say it's more of Andre's issue than the team's. He doesn't seem to work hard enough for the ball or to demand it enough. Comparisons to JJ are a bit skewed imo due to the abundance of other scorers on this squad. But after enough time, if your teammates get accustomed to you not being there, they stop looking for you. Compounded with this is Andre's lack of handle so it's really hard for him to create anything. Further compounding this is his apparent lack of a mid-range game, as noted by others. If the O worked to get the ball to Andre as he was moving to the rim with a clear path, i think that could really get his general level of confidence up.
Basically, if Andre were more versatile he would get more usage.

The point has been made in the past that what Andre does on the court is what the coaches want him to do. If they wanted to run more plays for him or have him make plays and diversify his offense, they would tell the team to do so and he would attempt those things. I suspect this will be a change you will see in Phase Dos.

Kilby
12-01-2011, 05:16 PM
In eight games Andre has 11 rebounds (six occurred in two games), 3 assists, 0 blocks. 5 steals (4 against Mich St.), and 3 turnovers. Thats a lot of time on the floor with only three games that he had any scoring impact. Unless he's been a lockdown defender I just don't see how you give that many minutes to someone that isn't finding more ways to have an impact on the game. Maybe until they figure it out it's time to bring him off the bench as a designated three point shooter. I love his shot. He has hops. I can't believe that he can't find a way to take advantage of taller defenders if he wanted.

Kedsy
12-01-2011, 05:40 PM
Unless he's been a lockdown defender I just don't see how you give that many minutes to someone that isn't finding more ways to have an impact on the game. Maybe until they figure it out it's time to bring him off the bench as a designated three point shooter.

I disagree with this. Counting statistics like points, rebounds and assists are not the only way to measure impact on the game. Whether or not our own players are looking for him, our opponents have to constantly watch Andre. If he gets away from his defender we have a good chance at three points. If he doesn't, his defender can't help on Austin or Seth or Mason. And if you want to talk about the eye test, speaking only for myself, my eyes tell me we play better on offense when Andre's in the game. Defensively, he hasn't reached the point of being "lockdown," but he's certainly competent. From what I can see he's still as good an option as we have at his position. I think he should continue to start and get big minutes.


I'd say it's more of Andre's issue than the team's. He doesn't seem to work hard enough for the ball or to demand it enough.

Maybe, but he's working a lot more than last year. And when he does work and get open, his teammates still don't get him the ball. I don't think his low usage can all be pinned on Andre.

CDu
12-01-2011, 05:45 PM
Miles is averaging 5.6 in 15.8 minutes a game, and shooting 59% from the floor.

Andre is averaging 8.9 points in 27.6 minutes a game and shooting 43%.

That's a whopping difference of 1.3 points per 40 minutes. And the shooting percentages are not remotely comparable - Miles is a post player and shoots dunks/layups. Andre is a perimeter player and shoots 3pt shoots. If you look at effective FG% (adjusting for the added value of a made 3pt shot over a made 2pt shot), Dawkins' eFG% is 59.4%.


I'm sure Miles would be averaging close to double digit scoring (despite his lack of tremendous offensive weapons) if there were more minutes available up front. As is, he does many of the same things that Mason does, but Mason is clearly better, so he plays more. I have no problem with the way Miles is playing, he's doing well for the minutes he gets.

And I'm sure Dawkins would score more if there were more shots to go around on the perimeter. But Curry, Kelly, and Rivers all take perimeter shots. When you consider the actual points per shot attempt, Dawkins is pretty efficient. He just doesn't get the shot attempts consistently due to his role on the team.


I agree that defense is a far more important concern at the moment, but Andre's role on this team is to score points. he's never been called a defensive stopper. If he's going to get close to 30 minutes a game, he needs to score more consistently and more efficiently.

No, Dawkins's role on the team is to provide a perimeter shooting threat and play defense. Even if he's not taking shots, teams have to be aware of him. When his teammates get him the ball with a look at the basket, his job is to hit at a high rate. And he does that. He scores very efficiently, as discussed above. He doesn't score consistently because he's not the focal point of the offense. We have another guy who is an extremely efficient shooter (Curry) and another guy (Rivers) who is an extremely talented player off the dribble, and another guy (Kelly) who is a very efficient shooter and a mismatch against bigger players, and a guy (Plumlee) who is developing a nice post game.

Kedsy
12-01-2011, 06:24 PM
No, Dawkins's role on the team is to provide a perimeter shooting threat and play defense. Even if he's not taking shots, teams have to be aware of him. When his teammates get him the ball with a look at the basket, his job is to hit at a high rate. And he does that. He scores very efficiently, as discussed above. He doesn't score consistently because he's not the focal point of the offense. We have another guy who is an extremely efficient shooter (Curry) and another guy (Rivers) who is an extremely talented player off the dribble, and another guy (Kelly) who is a very efficient shooter and a mismatch against bigger players, and a guy (Plumlee) who is developing a nice post game.

This is a great point. All five of our starters are serious scoring threats and would be the leading scorers on a lot of teams. But there are just so many shots to go around.

One reason we lost to Ohio State was because only two players had decent scoring nights, when most nights we have four or five (although obviously that's not the only reason we lost).

Newton_14
12-01-2011, 07:52 PM
I disagree with this. Counting statistics like points, rebounds and assists are not the only way to measure impact on the game. Whether or not our own players are looking for him, our opponents have to constantly watch Andre. If he gets away from his defender we have a good chance at three points. If he doesn't, his defender can't help on Austin or Seth or Mason. And if you want to talk about the eye test, speaking only for myself, my eyes tell me we play better on offense when Andre's in the game. Defensively, he hasn't reached the point of being "lockdown," but he's certainly competent. From what I can see he's still as good an option as we have at his position. I think he should continue to start and get big minutes.



Maybe, but he's working a lot more than last year. And when he does work and get open, his teammates still don't get him the ball. I don't think his low usage can all be pinned on Andre.

I agree with you whole-heartedly that stats do not tell the complete story on a players impact on a given game, and that Andre has played well in game where he did not score much. Mason has had a significant impact in games where his stats were not great as well, like in the MSU game. However, I do agree with the OP on the rebounding part. I think Andre could and should be a better rebounder. I have always felt have the Small Forward being a strong rebounder is a huge asset to a team. That is one thing I hope Andre focuses on moving forward. I think he could be a good rebounder with his hops and athletic ability.

ncexnyc
12-01-2011, 09:38 PM
Thank you for your well thought out response. Hopefully my response will justify the time and effort you put into yours.
I agree with your assessment of K’s previous rotations. However, I think this year isn’t like those of the past and I believe we know one of K’s biggest assets is his willingness to adapt. We have a deep team this year. It’s also a team that while the players have a lot of experience. They don’t have a great deal of experience in the roles they are being asked to fill. The majority of our starters were role players, nobody was, “The man.” The past few years we’ve been fortunate to have such players, G, Jon, Nolan, and Kyle. Players who were willing and able to step-up on any given night and take charge.
When we talk about who starts I think it’s important to discuss what each player brings to the table that justifies him being placed in that role, so here goes:
Mason: He’s an outstanding rebounder. His defense has improved and he has drastically cut down on the silly fouls. I had hoped he’d become adequate on the offensive end of the floor, but he’s gone way beyond that, to the point where he’s becoming a force to reckon with. I can’t see anyone taking his place in the rotation.
Ryan: A very heady player who provides us with scoring. His ability to stretch opposing defenses is one of the key components of his game. He’s a solid help defender who has also done better rebounding this year. Not a quick defender by any stretch of the imagination and could have trouble against quicker opponents. The only two players who might replace him are Miles and Josh and quite frankly that isn’t going to happen as neither player has shown enough.
Austin: Now here’s where things get tricky as this kid muddies the rotation waters. It’s quickly becoming quite evident that he is the most talented player on the team. He makes mistakes due to his inexperience, but he seems to quickly learn from his mistakes. He’s gotten better every game and he should continue to evolve as the year progresses. The question is where will he play? Can he handle running the point? Will he stay at SG? Does K even consider moving him to the wing? Austin will remain a starter the question is at what position.
Seth: He came in as the default PG. He had experience in the system and got to handle the job some last year. Many people like to compare this to what K did with Jon, but that’s an apples to oranges comparison in my opinion. Jon took over PG duties at the end of his junior year. For his senior year he had Nolan and Kyle as his running mates, which made his job a lot easier. He also was 6’5”, which allowed him to play over the majority of PG’s he matched-up against. Seth doesn’t have the established supporting cast that Jon did. Yes, both Mason and Austin are capable of becoming these types of players, but for now they are still works in progress, as is Seth. Seth is 6’2”, and seems rather frail. I don’t believe he has the ability to handle physical guards who will match-up against him. On the defensive end, Seth has quick hands, but for some reason he doesn’t seem to do a good job of staying in front of his man. While I see Seth remaining as a starter, I’m not sure that it will be as the PG. I believe Quinn has an excellent shot at taking this role, but only if he can improve his defensive play.
Andre: I hate to pick on the kid, but Andre was handed the wing role on a silver platter. His reputation is that of a scorer, but to date I believe he’s averaging 8.9 ppg. That figure is severely bloated by his outburst against MSU. If he was a defensive stopper I could understand him staying in the starting line-up, but we all know he is anything but that. At 6’4”, I’m not sure he’s capable of guarding larger wings. The two players who could possibly take his spot in the rotation are Alex and Michael, of course both are freshman and neither has gotten much playing time. Both have the physical tools to play the wing and while neither has the offensive upside of Dre, if they can master the defensive end of the court, then whatever they provide offensively will be gravy similar to what we got from Lance Thomas.
So bottom line. I think come March it’s very possible we’ll see a line-up that features Mason, Ryan in their current roles, Austin starting, but possibly at the 1, 2, or 3 spot. Seth at the 1 or 2. Quinn possibly at the 2, and Mike or Alex possibly at the 3. I honestly don’t see Dre staying in the starting rotation unless he elevates his game to the point where he is constantly scoring in double figures.

jv001
12-01-2011, 10:06 PM
First let me say, I love Andre Dawkins. But I must say his play is intriguing. His outside shot is a thing of beauty. However that seems to be his only weapon. He seldoms drives to the hoop and has not demonstrated a mid-range shot. I think this comes from the fact that he cannot or will not put the ball on the floor. I'm also sure that the coaches have worked with him on his handle. Matter of fact, I believe he went to one of the point guard schools in the offseason(Chris Paul's?). If Andre could get to the rim with his hops, many players would give him more room for his sweet jump shot. Defense: Some games he stays with his man and some games he has trouble staying with his man. Overall his defense has improved with the exception of his rebounding. He could stand to improve in that area. The season is still early and I look to see more improvement from Andre. We need him in the rotation for heavy minutes because we need his scoring. So far this year we've received valuable contributions from Andre and Tyler. Both came up with big shots late in games. We have several guys that have played well in all our games. What we seem to lack is the so called "go to guy". I look for Austin to become that man. GoDuke!

Kedsy
12-01-2011, 10:39 PM
So bottom line. I think come March it’s very possible we’ll see a line-up that features Mason, Ryan in their current roles, Austin starting, but possibly at the 1, 2, or 3 spot. Seth at the 1 or 2. Quinn possibly at the 2, and Mike or Alex possibly at the 3. I honestly don’t see Dre staying in the starting rotation unless he elevates his game to the point where he is constantly scoring in double figures.

Well, that's six guys. Obviously only five will start. I'd be very surprised to see Quinn starting at the 2 (as opposed to the 1), even though so far he's been more of a scorer than a distributor.

Personally, I think Andre should keep his starting role, but I acknowledge that he could end up coming off the bench if someone passes him on the defensive end. Ultimately, it's possible that either Quinn or Mike/Alex break into the starting lineup and Andre comes off the bench. In such a case, I assume Tyler's role would be diminished, because I disagree that K will go 9 (or, really, even 8) deep in big/tough games.

Where we seem to differ is I just don't think it's possible that both Quinn and Alex/Mike will break into the rotation, much less the starting lineup. And I'd be shocked and disappointed if Andre or Miles drops out of the rotation completely.

I have no inside information, so I could be dead wrong. Only time will tell, I suppose.

Kedsy
12-01-2011, 10:48 PM
I think this year isn’t like those of the past and I believe we know one of K’s biggest assets is his willingness to adapt. We have a deep team this year.

One more thing. Before the season started, I had hoped that K would see how deep this team is and go 8 or 9 or even 10 deep. But seeing how he hasn't done it even in the early season games so far, I think that hope has been dashed. I'll be very, very (pleasantly) surprised if we go more than 7 deep in tough or close games after January 1. You may be right that he'll adapt, but so far he's only gone more than 7 deep three times in 8 games, and none in tough or close games. Hard to imagine he'll do something in ACC or tournament play that he hasn't done in November.

licc85
12-01-2011, 10:57 PM
That's a whopping difference of 1.3 points per 40 minutes. And the shooting percentages are not remotely comparable - Miles is a post player and shoots dunks/layups. Andre is a perimeter player and shoots 3pt shoots. If you look at effective FG% (adjusting for the added value of a made 3pt shot over a made 2pt shot), Dawkins' eFG% is 59.4%.


And I'm sure Dawkins would score more if there were more shots to go around on the perimeter. But Curry, Kelly, and Rivers all take perimeter shots. When you consider the actual points per shot attempt, Dawkins is pretty efficient. He just doesn't get the shot attempts consistently due to his role on the team.


No, Dawkins's role on the team is to provide a perimeter shooting threat and play defense. Even if he's not taking shots, teams have to be aware of him. When his teammates get him the ball with a look at the basket, his job is to hit at a high rate. And he does that. He scores very efficiently, as discussed above. He doesn't score consistently because he's not the focal point of the offense. We have another guy who is an extremely efficient shooter (Curry) and another guy (Rivers) who is an extremely talented player off the dribble, and another guy (Kelly) who is a very efficient shooter and a mismatch against bigger players, and a guy (Plumlee) who is developing a nice post game.

Well, the problem is that Miles has a higher per minute average, even though scoring is not his primary role on this team. Even if there aren't that many shots to go around, a player like Andre Dawkins, whose first and foremost job on this team is put points on the board, is being out produced by a big man off the bench in scoring, something is not right. After all Miles isn't exactly the "focal point of our offense" either.

I don't think Coach K puts a number on each guy and says, "You take 5 shots, you take 10 shots, and you just stand around and don't shoot, just look threatening." You pass the ball to the open man on this team. Andre's job is not just to provide a perimeter scoring threat . . . it's to get open and hit shots. Why would you put a guy out there just to be a decoy? Every single player on the floor without the ball should constantly be moving, setting screens, and looking for ways to help teammates get open looks or to get open looks for himself. I'll disregard the "and play defense" part, because that's everyone's job.

ncexnyc
12-01-2011, 11:16 PM
One more thing. Before the season started, I had hoped that K would see how deep this team is and go 8 or 9 or even 10 deep. But seeing how he hasn't done it even in the early season games so far, I think that hope has been dashed. I'll be very, very (pleasantly) surprised if we go more than 7 deep in tough or close games after January 1. You may be right that he'll adapt, but so far he's only gone more than 7 deep three times in 8 games, and none in tough or close games. Hard to imagine he'll do something in ACC or tournament play that he hasn't done in November.

You're right, K hasn't reached deep into his bench during the tight games so far. I think this is likely to change as the newer players get more chances to grow into the system and show that the talent divide isn't that wide between themselves and the established players.

As you've already mentioned, history is against me, but we've got a long way to go until March so we'll see what happens. I really don't care which kids get to play as long as they do well and help the team win.

P.S. I did mean Quinn at the 1 spot not at the 2;)

Saratoga2
12-02-2011, 07:09 AM
Thank you for your well thought out response. Hopefully my response will justify the time and effort you put into yours.
I agree with your assessment of K’s previous rotations. However, I think this year isn’t like those of the past and I believe we know one of K’s biggest assets is his willingness to adapt. We have a deep team this year. It’s also a team that while the players have a lot of experience. They don’t have a great deal of experience in the roles they are being asked to fill. The majority of our starters were role players, nobody was, “The man.” The past few years we’ve been fortunate to have such players, G, Jon, Nolan, and Kyle. Players who were willing and able to step-up on any given night and take charge.
When we talk about who starts I think it’s important to discuss what each player brings to the table that justifies him being placed in that role, so here goes:
Mason: He’s an outstanding rebounder. His defense has improved and he has drastically cut down on the silly fouls. I had hoped he’d become adequate on the offensive end of the floor, but he’s gone way beyond that, to the point where he’s becoming a force to reckon with. I can’t see anyone taking his place in the rotation.
Ryan: A very heady player who provides us with scoring. His ability to stretch opposing defenses is one of the key components of his game. He’s a solid help defender who has also done better rebounding this year. Not a quick defender by any stretch of the imagination and could have trouble against quicker opponents. The only two players who might replace him are Miles and Josh and quite frankly that isn’t going to happen as neither player has shown enough.
Austin: Now here’s where things get tricky as this kid muddies the rotation waters. It’s quickly becoming quite evident that he is the most talented player on the team. He makes mistakes due to his inexperience, but he seems to quickly learn from his mistakes. He’s gotten better every game and he should continue to evolve as the year progresses. The question is where will he play? Can he handle running the point? Will he stay at SG? Does K even consider moving him to the wing? Austin will remain a starter the question is at what position.
Seth: He came in as the default PG. He had experience in the system and got to handle the job some last year. Many people like to compare this to what K did with Jon, but that’s an apples to oranges comparison in my opinion. Jon took over PG duties at the end of his junior year. For his senior year he had Nolan and Kyle as his running mates, which made his job a lot easier. He also was 6’5”, which allowed him to play over the majority of PG’s he matched-up against. Seth doesn’t have the established supporting cast that Jon did. Yes, both Mason and Austin are capable of becoming these types of players, but for now they are still works in progress, as is Seth. Seth is 6’2”, and seems rather frail. I don’t believe he has the ability to handle physical guards who will match-up against him. On the defensive end, Seth has quick hands, but for some reason he doesn’t seem to do a good job of staying in front of his man. While I see Seth remaining as a starter, I’m not sure that it will be as the PG. I believe Quinn has an excellent shot at taking this role, but only if he can improve his defensive play.
Andre: I hate to pick on the kid, but Andre was handed the wing role on a silver platter. His reputation is that of a scorer, but to date I believe he’s averaging 8.9 ppg. That figure is severely bloated by his outburst against MSU. If he was a defensive stopper I could understand him staying in the starting line-up, but we all know he is anything but that. At 6’4”, I’m not sure he’s capable of guarding larger wings. The two players who could possibly take his spot in the rotation are Alex and Michael, of course both are freshman and neither has gotten much playing time. Both have the physical tools to play the wing and while neither has the offensive upside of Dre, if they can master the defensive end of the court, then whatever they provide offensively will be gravy similar to what we got from Lance Thomas.
So bottom line. I think come March it’s very possible we’ll see a line-up that features Mason, Ryan in their current roles, Austin starting, but possibly at the 1, 2, or 3 spot. Seth at the 1 or 2. Quinn possibly at the 2, and Mike or Alex possibly at the 3. I honestly don’t see Dre staying in the starting rotation unless he elevates his game to the point where he is constantly scoring in double figures.

Thanks for your well thought out post. No players are perfect ofcourse, however, we have two who have shown the athleticism, skill and determination to play well at the highest level of college ball. Mason and Austin should start and get the most PT consistent with their physical stamina as adjusted by their foul situation. The one caveat there isthe end of game situations in which neither is a good foul shooter at this time.

Like you I would start a front line of Mason and Ryan. Ryan has improved his game both on offense and defense and has been consistent except for the last game where matchups or other situations might have been involved. I also like Miles and Josh coming off thebench as subs. The appropriate use of those two would also depend on matchups.

For the strting backcourt shootng guard and point guard I would use Austin and Seth. Seth like Ryan has been consistent this year. He is not as quick and won't brake down defenders, however is experienced and has enough guile in his game to get off quality shots. If Austin is out of the game, I would substitute Quinn for him as he has the most potential as a ball handler. If Seth is out I would use either Tyler or Quinn, since I expect Austin to handle the ball once across the halfcourt. I would not have Austin at the small forward, since I wouldn't want him guarding 6'6"or bigger players who might be upwards of 220 pounds. I think the wear and tear would be too great on him there and would leave us with a small backcourt. For the same reason I would not ask Austin to bring the ball up the court but only receive it once it is up. Since he may be playing upward of 35 minutes, it would be wise to conserve as much of his energy for the offensive end for penetration.

For small forward, Andre has not been consistent. He had the issue last year, where he would disappear for games at a time. He has a lot of talent but is doesn't show up enough to be relied upon. For that reason, I would share his time with the other two candidates during the next several games. Perhaps on a 15/15/10 minute basis to see if one of the players can distinguish himself and earn further minutes. I wouldn't pull a player too quickly if a mistake or two is made, but if a player is definitey not cutting it, then the competition could be cut down to two.

With the lineup of Seth, Austin, Mason, Ryan and Andre/Michael/Alex, we have 4 proven players on the floor to carry us and one player with more to prove. That is my twist going forward. When the difficulty of games picks up again, we should know more about our small forward position.

CDu
12-02-2011, 07:48 AM
Well, the problem is that Miles has a higher per minute average, even though scoring is not his primary role on this team. Even if there aren't that many shots to go around, a player like Andre Dawkins, whose first and foremost job on this team is put points on the board, is being out produced by a big man off the bench in scoring, something is not right. After all Miles isn't exactly the "focal point of our offense" either.

Neither player has been the focal point of the offense. Both are secondary/tertiary offensive options behind Rivers, Curry, Kelly, and Mason. And he's not being outproduced by Miles. They're both producing similarly. It doesn't matter that one player is a starter and the other is a reserve. When on the floor, neither player has been a primary scoring.


I don't think Coach K puts a number on each guy and says, "You take 5 shots, you take 10 shots, and you just stand around and don't shoot, just look threatening."

I don't think he does that either. But there are only so many shots to go around. We have two guards who are more comfortable handling the ball are score-first guards, and we have a big who is comfortable taking big men off the dribble and is a score-first big. So it's harder for a catch-and-shoot guy to score in that environment.


Andre's job is not just to provide a perimeter scoring threat . . . it's to get open and hit shots.

And he does that. He's one of our highest percentage 3pt shooters. He frequently gets open, too. Part of it is just that this team's strength isn't always passing to an open man.


Why would you put a guy out there just to be a decoy?

To create floor spacing for our other scorers. If you have a guy who can't shoot in there, teams can slack off that to help on other players. Defenses can't do that with Dawkins out there. This makes guys like Rivers, Curry, Kelly, and Mason that much more effective. Now, I didn't say Dawkins' ONLY role was as a decoy. I said his role is to provide a shooting threat. That threat can be realized (if his teammates decide to pass him the ball) or just as a decoy (if they don't). More often this season his teammates have used him as a decoy.


Every single player on the floor without the ball should constantly be moving, setting screens, and looking for ways to help teammates get open looks or to get open looks for himself.

Again, he does that quite a bit. But we don't have a pass-first offense this year, we have lots of talented scorers, and there are only so many shots to go around.