Kendall Marshall injury - not serious

[JasonEvans]

There has been some chatter over the past 24 hours about an injury to Kendall Marshall's back. A couple posts to this board had to be removed as they were clearly rumor mongering. Well, the injury has now been confirmed (http://espn.go.com/blog/north-carolina-basketball/post/_/id/266/marshall-has-back-spasms-but-should-be-fine)by the Carolina staff and it is really nothing serious.


North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall suffered some back spasms at the end of Thursday's practice, and was held out of today's workouts as a precautionary measure, but should be fine, a UNC spokesman said Friday afternoon.

UNC has a day off on Saturday and the word is he will be back at practice on Sunday.

I post all this to clear up any rumors that Marshall might miss a serious amount of time. It certainly looks like that is not the case.

-Jason

[ThePublisher]

It would be highly unlikely that two preseason num 1 teams would loose their point guard in consecutive years. Interesting thing to keep an eye on though. Thanks for the clarification.

[chrishoke]

Injuries suck. Here's to an injury free season for all teams.

[MChambers]

It would be highly unlikely that two preseason num 1 teams would loose their point guard in consecutive years. Interesting thing to keep an eye on though. Thanks for the clarification.
Yes, it would, but the fact that it happened last year has no bearing on it happening this year.

[ThePublisher]

Yes, it would, but the fact that it happened last year has no bearing on it happening this year.


True, but the probability that it would happen two years in a row is much lower than just happening one year.
Anyone know of a time that has happened in ncaa history?

[OldPhiKap]

True, but the probability that it would happen two years in a row is much lower than just happening one year.
Anyone know of a time that has happened in ncaa history?

Beware the slew of statisticians who are about to swoop.


(BTW, contrary to polular belief, a group of statisticians is known as a "slew" and not a "gaggle").



I hope Marshall has a full recovery.

[cspan37421]

True, but the probability that it would happen two years in a row is much lower than just happening one year.
Anyone know of a time that has happened in ncaa history?

OK, I'll bite.

Someone already said it - what already happened has no bearing on the odds of an independent event occurring. A simple analogy: Suppose you've flipped 3 heads in a row using a fair coin. What are the odds you'll flip a fourth head in a row? It's still 50%. The three previous flips do not change the fact that it's still a fair coin.

It's another thing entirely to say from the start, what are the odds I will flip 4 heads in a row? THAT is when the probability is small - before anything has happened.

So your observation of the rarity of two #1 teams losing their starting PG two years in a row being "much lower than just happening one year" - it is low, if nothing has yet happened. If it's already happened for the first year, then you've already completed half of the rare event ... the odds are now just those for "happening in one year."

I'm not a statistician, but I am an actuary. I don't know if there's an official collective noun for us, but I've heard "a distribution of actuaries" , as well as "an expense", a "Markov chain", and "an assurance of actuaries". I like the latter.

[OldPhiKap]

OK, I'll bite.

Someone already said it - what already happened has no bearing on the odds of an independent event occurring. A simple analogy: Suppose you've flipped 3 heads in a row using a fair coin. What are the odds you'll flip a fourth head in a row? It's still 50%. The three previous flips do not change the fact that it's still a fair coin.

It's another thing entirely to say from the start, what are the odds I will flip 4 heads in a row? THAT is when the probability is small - before anything has happened.

So your observation of the rarity of two #1 teams losing their starting PG two years in a row being "much lower than just happening one year" - it is low, if nothing has yet happened. If it's already happened for the first year, then you've already completed half of the rare event ... the odds are now just those for "happening in one year."

I'm not a statistician, but I am an actuary. I don't know if there's an official collective noun for us, but I've heard "a distribution of actuaries" , as well as "an expense", a "Markov chain", and "an assurance of actuaries". I like the latter.

If you've never read/seen Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead I suggest you do so. At least the beginning, although the whole thing is great. If you like Beckett.

[cspan37421]

If you've never read/seen Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead I suggest you do so. At least the beginning, although the whole thing is great. If you like Beckett.

I did, but I was too young to fully appreciate it. I should re-visit it. Thanks!