MBB: Duke vs. Belmont: Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[MChambers]

Since there have been several comments made about Belmont in the Shaw post-game thread, I think we need this thread. Have to point out that Belmont is 27th in Pomeroy's pre-season rankings.

http://kenpom.com

In case you're wondering, Belmont finished 19th in KenPom last year. Very tough opponent for the first game. Looks like they played tough defense last year, and forced lots of turnovers, with a deep bench. Duke will be favored, but shouldn't be favored by much.

[MCFinARL]

I actually think this is where the relatively close pre-season games could help Duke. Not that they would be likely not to take Belmont seriously, but now they know they really have almost no room for error. I expect they will be taking Belmont VERY seriously, and that should help their focus and preparation.

[dukeballboy88]

Sports Illustrated ranked the top 50 and Belmont was 50th. I thought that was pretty strong for a team like Belmont. We will have our hands full this game.

Rivers needs minimum 20 shots per game.

[FellowTraveler]

Rivers needs minimum 20 shots per game.

That's more than 5 shots per game more than Nolan Smith took last year. More than Redick ever took, or Jason Williams, or Johnny Dawkins. More than Kemba Walker took last year, and at least as many as Jimmer Fredette. In a typical season, there are 0-2 players who take 20 shots per game -- in the entire nation. They tend to play at schools most people have never heard of. They tend not to play with teammates like Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, the Plumlees, and Ryan Kelly.

I'd like to see Rivers in the 10-13 shots-per-game range.

[whereinthehellami]

It looks like Belmont took a summer trip (http://blogs.belmont.edu/italy2011/) to Italy. I'm not seeing that Belmont played any exhibitions. Maybe they did a couple of those secret scrimmages that other teams have been playing. If not I wonder why they wouldn't.

I'm not feeling too confident about a W this weekend. I think Belmont's experience is going to be tough for Duke to handle this early in the season. Right now I'm at ~ a 50-50 vibe of a Duke W.

[roywhite]

There's a major Duke connection on the Belmont roster. Scott Saunders (http://www.belmontbruins.com/sports/m-baskbl/2011-12/bios/saunders_scott_2edc), a productive inside player for the Bruins, is the son of
Larry Saunders (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=318), Duke's captain in 1971.

Scott was 2nd team all-conference as a junior last year and has good scoring and rebounding numbers per minutes played. Scott, listed at 6'10", transferred from Rice and his earned academic honors at Belmont as well as being an important part of a Bruins team that won 30 games last year.

Larry was also a transfer, from Northwestern, and played two years at Duke, where he established some season and career FG% marks that stood for quite a while.
He was the captain of the 1970-71 team, not an easy position, considering turbulence within the program at that time. Larry has been a successful business man and loyal Duke supporter over the years; he lived in the New Orleans area for many years, until Katrina helped chase him up to the Nashville area.

[UrinalCake]

I'm predicting a close game but we pull ahead by 10 in the last few minutes. We won't have a need for one of these.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=rIqdhtrDyi4#t=74s

[loldevilz]

If Duke rebounds well they will win, but it won't be easy. The fact that this game is in Cameron probably will be the difference maker.

Still, it kind of worries me how little we know about this team already. Their are six guys that can score the ball, but none are established stars. Many play multiple positions during a game. We still don't know who our point guard is.

An established team like Belmont could easily come in a get a W if the guys don't play at their best.

[Bob Green]

I'd like to see Rivers in the 10-13 shots-per-game range.

Thank you! Sanity prevails.

[MChambers]

Still, it kind of worries me how little we know about this team already. Their are six guys that can score the ball, but none are established stars. Many play multiple positions during a game. We still don't know who our point guard is.
Coach K knows: it's Curry.

[ACCBBallFan]

Since there have been several comments made about Belmont in the Shaw post-game thread, I think we need this thread. Have to point out that Belmont is 27th in Pomeroy's pre-season rankings.

http://kenpom.com

In case you're wondering, Belmont finished 19th in KenPom last year. Very tough opponent for the first game. Looks like they played tough defense last year, and forced lots of turnovers, with a deep bench. Duke will be favored, but shouldn't be favored by much.

Pomeroy has Belmont rated adjacent to FSU which is probably a good comparison among ACC, very experienced team.

[UrinalCake]

TI'd like to see Rivers in the 10-13 shots-per-game range.

Rivers is under so much scrutiny right now, half of the time we're saying he shoots too much and the other half of the time we're saying he doesn't shoot enough. In truth he needs to take what the defense gives him, utilize his teammates, and take good shots. If that ends up being 20 times in a game then great, but 10-13 is more reasonable as you say. However, if the defense is double teaming him and leaving someone else open then he'll need to shoot less.

[gumbomoop]

Pomeroy has Belmont rated adjacent to FSU which is probably a good comparison among ACC, very experienced team.

This is eye-opening enough, for we posters would probably not prefer to open the season with FSU.

Further....


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/11/01/preseason.power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_wr_a2

Luke Winn has Belmont at #21, the highest, so far, I've seen them ranked in preseason. Also eye-opening.

Just to remind folks, this game with Belmont is actually Duke's "opening round" game in the Maui Invitational. Belmont will also serve as Memphis's "opening round" opponent, on 11/15. Belmont will then go on to play in a 4-team "regional tournament," to complete the Maui "mainland" portion of the new, and somewhat complicated, Maui setup.

Starting with Duke and Memphis should be exciting for Belmont, a team that expects to make waves right off the bat. As others have noted, they are experienced, well-coached, not likely to be intimidated, confident that they can win several of their own Maui games.

[Bojangles4Eva]

I think this will be a tough game but we will also see some changes from the past exhibitions and the China/Dubai trip. We'll have over a week to scout and work on perimeter defense, and I think the shuffling of players in and out will be fairly reduced. I expect we will see more efficiency (especially on the defensive end) against Belmont and its going to make the difference.

This game reminds me of playing Rhode Island a couple years back, but hopefully the Belmont coach doesn't have a son who will catch fire (forget his name). Its a team that insiders know is good, and has to the potential to give us a very hard early season game. If we can avoid an insane shooting night from Belmont (we had one in spurts with Shaw, they hit many high degree of difficulty shots), I expect us to win by a comfortable margin.

[MCFinARL]

It looks like Belmont took a summer trip (http://blogs.belmont.edu/italy2011/) to Italy. I'm not seeing that Belmont played any exhibitions. Maybe they did a couple of those secret scrimmages that other teams have been playing. If not I wonder why they wouldn't.

I'm not feeling too confident about a W this weekend. I think Belmont's experience is going to be tough for Duke to handle this early in the season. Right now I'm at ~ a 50-50 vibe of a Duke W.

I'm pretty sure the chances of a W this weekend are 0. Next Friday, on the other hand, is a different matter. ;) (Sorry, couldn't help myself.)

[Troublemaker]

Agree with others. 19th best team from last year (Pom); essentially returns everyone, including all their high-usage players. Vs Duke, who lost our three best players; everyone on the team has new roles; this is Game #1 when we're theoretically most vulnerable given the aforementioned... I would expect a very tough game unless Belmont is anxious, not familiar with playing on TV against a big-time program and venue.

[J4Kop99]

Should definitely be a tough game. I'm just mad you guys opened up this thread over a week in advance... getting me way too excited.

[ACCBBallFan]

This is eye-opening enough, for we posters would probably not prefer to open the season with FSU.

Further....



Luke Winn has Belmont at #21, the highest, so far, I've seen them ranked in preseason. Also eye-opening.

Just to remind folks, this game with Belmont is actually Duke's "opening round" game in the Maui Invitational. Belmont will also serve as Memphis's "opening round" opponent, on 11/15. Belmont will then go on to play in a 4-team "regional tournament," to complete the Maui "mainland" portion of the new, and somewhat complicated, Maui setup.

Starting with Duke and Memphis should be exciting for Belmont, a team that expects to make waves right off the bat. As others have noted, they are experienced, well-coached, not likely to be intimidated, confident that they can win several of their own Maui games.

On your Luke Winn link, Belmont is adjacent to FSU as well.

Belmont is good, but in my opinion closer to UVA and VA Tech before the JT Thompson injury, a team who if they do not win the Atl Sun tourney can still be a bubble team.

[HCheek37]

I'm predicting a close game but we pull ahead by 10 in the last few minutes. We won't have a need for one of these.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=rIqdhtrDyi4#t=74s

Ahhhh that video just reminded me of how ugly Demarcus Nelson's free throw stroke was....not a fun way to start my friday considering it was a prelude to WVU. Although I think we beat WVU in a bit more meaningful game a few years later....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPrj-XrgHGo

[subzero02]

I am interested in seeing the point spread for this game. If we take advantage of our size and shoot well from 3 and the foul line we should win by double figures.

[ACCBBallFan]

I am interested in seeing the point spread for this game. If we take advantage of our size and shoot well from 3 and the foul line we should win by double figures.

No that his ratings makes much sense this early, but Ken Pomeroy has it 79-68 Duke.

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

[Kedsy]

No that his ratings makes much sense this early, but Ken Pomeroy has it 79-68 Duke.

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

No, Pomeroy doesn't carry much value at this stage. But I like it. He has Duke and UNC ending with identical records and tied for the regular season ACC title. I could live with that.

[subzero02]

Duke -11 would be tempting... Especially in Cameron

[Nrrrrvous]

I am interested in seeing the point spread for this game. If we take advantage of our size and shoot well from 3 and the foul line we should win by double figures.

I'm not sure that we will have that much of a size advantage. They will "probably" start Hedgepeth (6'9" Sr.) and Saunders (6'10" Sr) down low. And depending on whether they go with the 3 guard line-up of Hanlen (5'11" Sr) Clark (6'3" Jr) and Barnes (6'2" Jr) or start Baker (6'6" Jr) or Mann (6'6" So) in place of Barnes. That's not "that" much of an advantage.

Also noted, they are a very experienced team that played together all year last year and went 30-5. I'm a little surprised at the KenPom line even with it being played at Cameron.

All that said, I can't wait! Let's get ready to ruuummmble!

[PaIronDuke]

Although I agree that this seems to be a team, like several (Florida State, VT), that has figured out better than most how to play Duke, I think our biggest risk here is overconfidence.

All things considered, I think overconfidence is unlikely with this particular group at this particular time.................

[Cameron]

There's a major Duke connection on the Belmont roster. Scott Saunders, a productive inside player for the Bruins, is the son of
Larry Saunders, Duke's captain in 1971.

The only major connection between the two teams that I am concerned with is the one that involves Belmont stopping my pulse four years ago in the NCAA Tournament. I almost passed away that night and I'd really be appreciative of Belmont if it would not do that ever again.

The final five minutes of that game were the most horrifying of my entire life (not including the time I walked outside in the morning on my way to school as a kid and found a coyote swallowing my cat. Fluffball didn't deserve to be eaten by a monster). I literally fell ill after we lost our lead to the Bruins midway through the second half, and spent the remainder of the tilt running back and forth during stops in the action warding off seasickness. A terrible evening that made me question what the hell I am doing with my life.


I'm predicting a close game but we pull ahead by 10 in the last few minutes. We won't have a need for one of these.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...dhtrDyi4#t=74s

Here's a high definition video of that final Henderson play.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4L1SQwOzlc

[mapei]

The final five minutes of that game were the most horrifying of my entire life (not including the time I walked outside in the morning on my way to school as a kid and found a coyote swallowing my cat. Fluffball didn't deserve to be eaten by a monster). I literally fell ill after we lost our lead to the Bruins midway through the second half, and spent the remainder of the tilt running back and forth during stops in the action warding off seasickness. A terrible evening that made me question what the hell I am doing with my life.

I was in the arena that night and I can so identify. I would prefer almost anybody as a first-game opponent.

[Cameron]

I was in the arena that night and I can so identify. I would prefer almost anybody as a first-game opponent.


I was at the Butler game in Indianapolis, but I can't even begin to imagine that scene in D.C. With the game being played in the USA where everyone is repelled by Duke during March, the anti-Duke sentiment already was promised to be all-pervading inside of the Verizon Center. Mix in the additional element of 15-seeded Belmont dropping rainbow threes like rain late in the second half to overtake mighty Duke's lead and you have a stadium full of very sick people (read: happy).

All I could think about as Gerald was rushing down court was Ron "Fang" Mitchell. Just a haunting memory. I agree with you, mapei, I would prefer to never play Belmont for the rest of time.

[uh_no]

not duke or particularly thread related....but the first games of the season are just 24 hours away! (2k classic)

BASKETBALL SEASON IS HERE!

[Dukeford]

Actually, Taylor King won that 1st round game as much as Henderson did.
He hit a running jumper as time ran out in the 1st half.
No Taylor King, Duke loses 70-69 instead of winning 71-70.

[Wander]

Actually, Taylor King won that 1st round game as much as Henderson did.


Dude, you're trying way too hard. Taylor King hit one jump shot. Henderson had 20ish points and played great defense, not to mention the go-ahead basket.

[MCFinARL]

This morning's Washington Post lists Belmont as one of four "Big-time teams without big-time hype" (this title is from the print edition, title on the link is different) in its college basketball preview, noting that they return 10 lettermen and 4 starters from a team that went 30-5 last year. Could be interesting.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/college-basketball-preview-2011-12-dont-forget-these-four/2011/11/03/gIQAK0IRtM_story.html

[gumbomoop]

This morning's Washington Post lists Belmont as one of four "Big-time teams without big-time hype" (this title is from the print edition, title on the link is different) in its college basketball preview, noting that they return 10 lettermen and 4 starters from a team that went 30-5 last year. Could be interesting.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/college-basketball-preview-2011-12-dont-forget-these-four/2011/11/03/gIQAK0IRtM_story.html

Belmont will, and should, come into CIS expecting to win. By which I mean, confident that they will play well and win the game. They deserve their preseason hype, and know they deserve this recognition. They are very experienced, a strong mid-major team, know each other well, play efficiently with each other. They can expect to play more efficiently than the more-talented Blue Devils, who don't yet know each other well, and probably won't in this first game play with smooth efficiency.

I'm always surprised when Duke loses any particular game. But I won't be surprised if this is a really good game, close to the end. Exciting start to the season. Waui Maui.

[dukeballboy88]

If Duke is -11 or higher, im jumping all over the devils. I know from watching spreads and researching games, anytime vegas throws a spread out there that makes you say hmmmmm, go with it. For example, if its Duke -anything under 10 at Cameron, everyone will load up on Duke and Belmont covers. If Duke is -11 or higher like -16 or -17, everyone will load up on Belmont and Duke covers. Vegas always gets it right. Ill be watching to see the spread and how it changes by gametime.

[JasonEvans]

Actually, Taylor King won that 1st round game as much as Henderson did.
He hit a running jumper as time ran out in the 1st half.
No Taylor King, Duke loses 70-69 instead of winning 71-70.

Wow-- did you really just apply that logic?

So, I am guessing that you still recall how Cherokee Parks won that 1992 OT NCAA Tourney game with Kentucky with his impressive 4 points in 6 minutes of playing time performance.

-Jason "really?!?!?" Evans

[MCFinARL]

If Duke is -11 or higher, im jumping all over the devils. I know from watching spreads and researching games, anytime vegas throws a spread out there that makes you say hmmmmm, go with it. For example, if its Duke -anything under 10 at Cameron, everyone will load up on Duke and Belmont covers. If Duke is -11 or higher like -16 or -17, everyone will load up on Belmont and Duke covers. Vegas always gets it right. Ill be watching to see the spread and how it changes by gametime.

I'm shocked--Shocked!--to find gambling being discussed in this establishment.

[UrinalCake]

Wow-- did you really just apply that logic?

Yeah, I hate when people apply this kind of logic. If King doesn't hit that shot at halftime, do you really believe that the entire second half would have played out exactly the same as it did in real life?

[meloveduke]

Yeah, I hate when people apply this kind of logic. If King doesn't hit that shot at halftime, do you really believe that the entire second half would have played out exactly the same as it did in real life?


You might have a point, but that is a what if. The same could be said of Henderson making just one of his missed shots, or anyone else on the team that missed a shot that was a good shot. If 2 more freethrows go in, if they miss a shot. You see where I am going with this? The game was not over at the half, it was Hendersons basket that won it for us. If he missed we lost, plain and simple. Everything that happened before led to the fact that all we needed was a 2 and not a 3......

[dukeballboy88]

I'm shocked--Shocked!--to find gambling being discussed in this establishment.

No one said anything about gambling, I dont have any money to gamble, I do it for fun my friend. Plus it helps with my stress level. If I see Duke -15 I will be able to relax watching the game. If I see Duke -7 I will be a basket case.

[Bob Green]

I'm shocked--Shocked!--to find gambling being discussed in this establishment.


No one said anything about gambling, I dont have any money to gamble, I do it for fun my friend.

I assure you MCFinARL isn't really shocked or worried whether anyone is or isn't discussing gambling. It appears you missed the "Casablanca" reference and the infamous exchange between Claude Rains and Humphrey Bogart.

[OldPhiKap]

I assure you MCFinARL isn't really shocked or worried whether anyone is or isn't discussing gambling. It appears you missed the "Casablanca" reference and the infamous exchange between Claude Rains and Humphrey Bogart.

MCFinARL is fixin' to round up the usual suspects.

[MCFinARL]

MCFinARL is fixin' to round up the usual suspects.

Yes, I am--and we'll always have Paris! Though I realize I am now switching characters....

[OldPhiKap]

Yes, I am--and we'll always have Paris! Though I realize I am now switching characters....

"Don't Ask -- Don't Post"

[Saratoga2]

I'm not sure that we will have that much of a size advantage. They will "probably" start Hedgepeth (6'9" Sr.) and Saunders (6'10" Sr) down low. And depending on whether they go with the 3 guard line-up of Hanlen (5'11" Sr) Clark (6'3" Jr) and Barnes (6'2" Jr) or start Baker (6'6" Jr) or Mann (6'6" So) in place of Barnes. That's not "that" much of an advantage.

Also noted, they are a very experienced team that played together all year last year and went 30-5. I'm a little surprised at the KenPom line even with it being played at Cameron.

All that said, I can't wait! Let's get ready to ruuummmble!

Duke lost two very experienced players who were in for a lot of minutes and were excellent defenders. Duke also lost the top point guard in the country who was a very solid scorer and a good defender. What we have returning are a lot of freshmen of which, Marshall, Michael and Alex probably need to gain experience before becoming competitive. That leaves us with front court players who may have improved, but Miles certainly hasn't looked that different to date. Mason may have improved his offense and Ryan appears to have made a step forward. How good is their defense? So far the verdict is out on that in my opinion. Josh is a wild card and may have improved enough to make a difference in some circumstances.

In the back court we are hoping that Seth will use his experience to run the team well and also provide scoring. He has quick hands but in the past has only been an average defender. Andre is still a bit of an unknown. Will he show more of an all around offensive game to go with his excellent shooting ability? The time is now for him to take a leading role at both ends of the court. That leaves us with Austin, who we are expecting to come up big as a freshman. He certainly looks like a guy who could cause matchup problems and score and coach has praised his defensive effort. I hope Austin can meet our wildest expectations.

We do have both Quinn and Tyler who both appear ready to play competitive minutes.

Later in the year, some of our other freshmen may be ready to provide significant support and I expect the team to improve under coach K's leadership. In my view the early games, such as against Belmont, will be close and hard fought. Let the season really begin!

[Bob Green]

Duke lost two very experienced players who were in for a lot of minutes and were excellent defenders. Duke also lost the top point guard in the country who was a very solid scorer and a good defender.

Duke is a unique position of being experienced but young. We have multiple players with extensive game experience but none of them have ever had to be the man.


In my view the early games, such as against Belmont, will be close and hard fought. Let the season really begin!

While I am edgy or perhaps even slightly nervous about the start of the season, I am also excited to no end that basketball season has arrived. It should be very entertaining observing the team meld together and develop into a force where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

[devildeac]

I assure you MCFinARL isn't really shocked or worried whether anyone is or isn't discussing gambling. It appears you missed the "Casablanca" reference and the infamous exchange between Claude Rains and Humphrey Bogart.

Looks like you will have to round up the usual suspects now, Bob.
;-))

[Saratoga2]

Duke is a unique position of being experienced but young. We have multiple players with extensive game experience but none of them have ever had to be the man.



While I am edgy or perhaps even slightly nervous about the start of the season, I am also excited to no end that basketball season has arrived. It should be very entertaining observing the team meld together and develop into a force where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

My nervousness has to do with not seeing the foundation players to build the team around. Last year it was Nolan and Kyle with a super freshman. This year it may be Seth and Ryan with another super freshman. We can hope the Plumlees will make greater contributions and that Andre becomes more versatile, but we do need those those foundation players to build on. Let the games begin.

[meloveduke]

I know a lot of people are wondering how this team will react to losing Kyle, Nolan, and Irving, but I feel like we are only losing Kyle and Nolan. Lets remember last year Irving only logged 303 minutes, thats the 4th lowest on the team. I know he is and was really good when on the floor, but he wasnt there much. The fact is Seth logged 3 times the minutes Irving did (924). No he wasnt the main guy, and yes he had 2 srs to help him out, but this is his 3rd year with the team. The only things I am worried about is Dre, how fast Rivers makes the jump from HS to NCAA level, and the D. Having said all this, without Rivers I like our chances against Belmont. I think it would turn out like it did last time we played. I still think this team has what it takes to be better then the team that was on the floor for most of last year. I dont think we will see a better team against belmont, but we have the tools.

[airowe]

Ray Horn will be doing previews and recaps for all the games this season on the site. If you're interested in learning a little more about Belmont, he reviewed all the video he could find and broke down their team from starters to the bench. They're returning nearly everyone so he was able to get a pretty good grasp on them: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2011/11/09/game-preview-duke-vs-belmont-11-11-11/

Honestly, I think we take a loss in this one. Belmont is a very experienced squad with a lot of accurate perimeter shooters. This is one of Duke's biggest weaknesses and I'm afraid they'll be able to exploit it more than we will be able to exploit our size advantage inside. Hope I'm wrong!

[MCFinARL]

Ray Horn will be doing previews and recaps for all the games this season on the site. If you're interested in learning a little more about Belmont, he reviewed all the video he could find and broke down their team from starters to the bench. They're returning nearly everyone so he was able to get a pretty good grasp on them: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2011/11/09/game-preview-duke-vs-belmont-11-11-11/

Honestly, I think we take a loss in this one. Belmont is a very experienced squad with a lot of accurate perimeter shooters. This is one of Duke's biggest weaknesses and I'm afraid they'll be able to exploit it more than we will be able to exploit our size advantage inside. Hope I'm wrong!

I hope you are wrong, too, but if you are not, the good news may be that we can learn something from this and other tough early games that we can build on later in the season. Or do you see the weakness in defending against perimeter shooters as one that is integral to this year's team, and thus perhaps not correctible?

[airowe]

If there's one thing I won't worry about long with a team led by Coach K, its defense. They'll figure it out, but this may not be the best team to be learning against.

[watzone]

There are several notes on Belmont and thoughts of Maui in my latest Duke Basketball Notebook. http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/11/bdns-duke-basketball-notebook-the-season-is-upon-us/ I do think this will be a tough opener for Duke and it is their toughest opener since Seton Hall in the 2001 season. We'll learn a lot about Duke in this game. As for defense, it was mentioned nby every player I talked to as something thye were working on yesterday. Good Belmont preview below there.

[slower]

In their preseason picks, SI's three panelists all named Belmont as the best mid-major team. Anything could happen tomorrow night.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/basketball/ncaa/11/10/crystal.ball/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t13_a2

[J4Kop99]

Ideas on the starting lineup?

Curry
Rivers
Dawkins
Kelly
Miles

[Krzyzewskiville]

Will this game be on tv in NY?

[Kedsy]

Will this game be on tv in NY?

I think it's on ESPNU.

[DukieInBrasil]

Ideas on the starting lineup?

Curry
Rivers
Dawkins
Kelly
Miles
I'm starting to think that K started Murphy in the 1st exhibition game to send Andre a message, that the starting spot was not necessarily a given. Andre certainly played much better in the 1st half v. Shaw than he did at any point in the 1st pre-season game. That SI article mentions Belmont's ferocious turnover inducing perimeter D and Dre will need to be very smart with the ball. He is the least-strong with the ball among our guards and i bet Belmont will be very attuned to that.

I'm really hoping that Seth has that "won't let my team lose" mentality that he seems to emanate. He seems to have played really well the whole time since China. He may not be as flashy as Kyrie or even Nolan but i get the sense that he's gonna Scheyer his way to 15 ppg, on a team with many more scoring options than any of Jon's did.

I think that bringing Mason off the bench might actually be a good move because Miles and Ryan have very contrasting styles and keeps a more physically imposing interior presence alongside a versatile offensive performer, rather than an offensively restricted player who brings more rebounding and power to the interior. It also would give Mason a chance to study the game and possibly get its flow, helping to reduce his personal foul count. Not that he would be the savant-like 6th man So. Scheyer, but him coming off the bench gives Duke a physically imposing big option on the court pretty much all the time, and sometimes both MPs together. As an aside, i'm kinda hoping that there won't be any situations in which Marshall is needed, and will therefore be redshirted.

I'd like for Austin to not feel like he has to be to this year's Duke team what lotsa Kerlina fans thought HB was gonna be for the Heels at the start of last year. I think he's got the kinda team around him, with lotsa upperclassmen, where he won't feel the pressure to give himself ludicrous nicknames. K really seemed to like the way he played in Phase 0.

[Newton_14]

Ideas on the starting lineup?

Curry
Rivers
Dawkins
Kelly
Miles

I think Mason will start over Ryan with the other 4 you list and Ryan will be the first off the bench to give us a boost on offense. We are more physical with both Plumlee's down low. Mason, Ryan, and Miles will all play heavy minutes though, so it all depends how K wants to start the game. Does he go with Ryan for offense out of the gate? Or does he go with Mason for physical improvement and rebounding? I honestly could live with any 2 of those 3 starting and the 3rd being first sub in. We have a different look with all 3 combinations. I suspect which two start will be fluid throughout the year based on opponent and how each are practicing that week.

[Bob Green]

I think Mason will start over Ryan with the other 4 you list and Ryan will be the first off the bench to give us a boost on offense. We are more physical with both Plumlee's down low.

I agree. As long as the foul situation stays in check. I expect Miles and Mason to log major minutes together. Ryan is a cerebral player, much like Jon Scheyer, and will excel in the 6th man role.

[uh_no]

I agree. As long as the foul situation stays in check. I expect Miles and Mason to log major minutes together. Ryan is a cerebral player, much like Jon Scheyer, and will excel in the 6th man role.

Yeah. Jon was a great 6th man in 2009-2010.

I just think its silly to say that just because a player is "cerebral" implies a) he can't also be physical and b) is thus better suited to a backup role.

If kelly is one of our 2 best big men, he'll start. Has coach ever played games with his starting lineup like that? Since I've been paying attention, he's started the 5 he thought was his best lineup (early season meddling aside), not saved his "cerebral" players on the bench.

[Bob Green]

I just think its silly to say that just because a player is "cerebral" implies a) he can't also be physical and b) is thus better suited to a backup role.



You are misinterpreting my post. I never implied Ryan wasn't physical and I do not consider the 6th man a "backup role." What I believe is Ryan Kelly is suited to start off on the bench, observe how the first three or four minutes of the individual contest is unfolding (each game is different), and then enter the game with a solid understanding of what he needs to accomplish to influence the flow of the game to Duke's advantage.

Perhaps cerebral is not the best term. Emotionally mature or grounded may have been better word choices.

[uh_no]

You are misinterpreting my post. I never implied Ryan wasn't physical and I do not consider the 6th man a "backup role." What I believe is Ryan Kelly is suited to start off on the bench, observe how the first three or four minutes of the individual contest is unfolding (each game is different), and then enter the game with a solid understanding of what he needs to accomplish to influence the flow of the game to Duke's advantage.

Perhaps cerebral is not the best term. Emotionally mature or grounded may have been better word choices.

Thanks for explaining, your position makes a lot more sense. I still disagree in the end, but that's okay.

[dukeballboy88]

I see the line opened at Duke -12. It has already moved to Duke -11.5 and I was told my someone in the know, that it takes a million dollars waged to sway a line by a half a point. So betters are already laying heavy money down on Belmont as the shift in the line went down.

I love seeing Duke -12, and I love seeing it go down and I hope it goes down more to like Duke -10 before game time because then Duke will cover that.

Once I see the o/u, ill predict the outcome and score.

When it comes to gambling, I know people that go hard and I know a cat that takes the bets. I see how it can take control over your life so in no way am I condoning gambling here I just know watching and keeping up with it ove the years, the bookie is hardly ever wrong.

[DuKe4LiFe#30]

Duke 76
Belmont 67

[Kedsy]

I see the line opened at Duke -12. It has already moved to Duke -11.5 and I was told my someone in the know, that it takes a million dollars waged to sway a line by a half a point. So betters are already laying heavy money down on Belmont as the shift in the line went down.

I don't know what line you're looking at, but you should know there isn't just one line, even in Vegas. Each bookmaker keeps his own. Eventually they all become pretty close to the same, but in the short term, one bookie's line may be different from others. For an individual bookie, a few hundred dollars can move the line early in the week, so I'm not sure in what context the million dollars number comes into play.

My understanding is the bookies aren't predicting the score of the game (so they can't really be "right" or "wrong" about that), they're really just trying to balance the bets so they get half their customers betting one side and half betting the other. That way they eliminate (or at least minimize) their own risk.

(Disclaimer: I also am not condoning gambling.)

[J4Kop99]

The only line I have seen has been -12.

--And it's pretty crazy that the season starts tonight. It feels like just a couple days ago when I was throwing television remotes and punching holes in walls watching Arizona run wild.

[MChambers]

The only line I have seen has been -12.

--And it's pretty crazy that the season starts tonight. It feels like just a couple days ago when I was throwing television remotes and punching holes in walls watching Arizona run wild.

I'll be very happy if Duke wins, whether it's by 1 or some other number. Like Airowe, I'm worried. I think this is a bad matchup for Duke at this point in the season, in terms of wins and losses. In terms of a learning experience/coachable moment, I bet the team learns a lot from this game, win or lose, so I'm glad Duke's playing Belmont.

[Bob Green]

The only line I have seen has been -12.

There are six lines listed here:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

Currently, five are -12 with the sixth at -11.5 (LV Hilton).

[Bluedog]

For those without ESPNU, the game is also being broadcast on ESPN3. I guess ESPN realized that this isn't some cupcake opener for Duke and decided to increase the viewership as previously is was just listed as on ESPNU.

In any event, this game will definitely be a solid test. I can't even remember the last time we had a first game this tough (I guess St. John's several years ago). I expect a hard fought game that will be close throughout. I think Duke will win, but it certainly wouldn't shock me in the least to see Belmont pull it out. Perimeter defense will be key and I'd say that's perhaps our area of weakness (or, at least, it hasn't been tested yet). We need Curry's fast hands to get some steals and for Austin to play solid man-to-man. Perhaps Thornton will get some minutes to set the tone defensively. I expect a big game out of the three bigs and they certainly need to show their muscle and get some serious boards. If Belmont is shooting lights out, we could be in for trouble.

One thing I know for sure is that we will NOT take Belmont lightly. Coach K is a master motivator and psychologists and obviously knows how well-coached and solid this Belmont squad is and will certainly tell his players that. In fact, I'd think Coach K would say that this Belmont team has proven more than the current Duke team at this juncture. Belmont essentially has their whole team back and won 30 games last season. Duke lost 52% of its scoring, so certainly has a lot to prove.

Let's go Duke!

[Bob Green]

In any event, this game will definitely be a solid test. I can't even remember the last time we had a first game this tough (I guess St. John's several years ago).

On 11/19/01 Duke beat Seton Hall 80-79 at the Lahaina Civic Center in their first game of the season. This could be the toughest season opener since that game.

[J4Kop99]

There are six lines listed here:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

Currently, five are -12 with the sixth at -11.5 (LV Hilton).

Thank you, BG. Page wasn't loading for me.

[rhcpflea99]

Rebound, rebound, rebound. If Belmont is making shots it is going to tough night for Duke. Duke needs to play great help defense. Make baskets make Belmont take the ball out rather then run, run, run. Go Duke!!!!

[jipops]

I'll be very happy if Duke wins, whether it's by 1 or some other number. Like Airowe, I'm worried. I think this is a bad matchup for Duke at this point in the season, in terms of wins and losses. In terms of a learning experience/coachable moment, I bet the team learns a lot from this game, win or lose, so I'm glad Duke's playing Belmont.

I agree as well. I am very concerned about this game. This is as tough an opponent as we will face all season with the exception of UNC. They are deep with winning experience. Though the media would frame it otherwise, I would not be the least bit surprised if Duke is 0-1 after tonight. My biggest question mark is how well will we be able to defend these guys? We saw some pretty bad defensive lapses in the 2 exhibition games against opponents far lesser than this one. Can both Seth and Miles show us some valuable leadership tonight?

[ChillinDuke]

Rebound, rebound, rebound. If Belmont is making shots it is going to tough night for Duke. Duke needs to play great help defense. Make baskets make Belmont take the ball out rather then run, run, run. Go Duke!!!!

I can barely contain my excitement at work. Go Duke!

- Chillin

[Billy Dat]

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205330291&DB_OEM_ID=4200
"Duke has won 86 straight non-conference home games, the longest current streak in the NCAA. The last home loss against a non-conference opponent for the Blue Devils was on Feb. 26, 2000 against St. John’s, 83-82. "

This isn't new news, I think we all know this streak is on the line tonight. I also understand we respect Belmont as a very good opponent more than capable of beating us. BUT, with an 11+ year run on the line, I, for one, unlike many who has posted in this thread, WILL be surprised if we lose. Granted, every streak must come to and end, but I will certainly be surprised if its tonight.

[meloveduke]

Duke lost 52% of its scoring, so certainly has a lot to prove.

Let's go Duke!



KI score less points (KI scored 192 Smith-764 Singler-625) then everyone on this team that played last year, aside from, Tyler(56), Miles(176), and Josh(39). I am not trying to take anything away from him, but the fact is, the returners didnt play with him much. I really think that helps this team out. Seth got to see a lot of much needed mins last year cause of the toe, I wasnt happy at the time, but I am happy that happened. Not somuch the hurt toe, but the time on the court that Seth saw will mean a lot to this team.

edit- I relize your not talking about KI, but everyone seems to put him in the same group with Smith and Singler and I just dont think you can do that.
My bet is we miss both Smith and Singler way more. Regaurdless of the above, this team does have a lot to prove.

Duke 82
Belmont 68
I think its close in the first and we pull away in the second half. I may be wrong, but I hope I am not.....

[CarmenWallaceWade]

I love that we are opening with this game and that we have MSU and OSU very shortly after. These early games are going to be huge for the continued growth of this team. Win or lose, if we can really learn from them - and we most certainly will considering we have one of the world's best teachers - we are not going to be a fun team to face come 2012.

[MCFinARL]

One thing I know for sure is that we will NOT take Belmont lightly. Coach K is a master motivator and psychologists and obviously knows how well-coached and solid this Belmont squad is and will certainly tell his players that. In fact, I'd think Coach K would say that this Belmont team has proven more than the current Duke team at this juncture. Belmont essentially has their whole team back and won 30 games last season. Duke lost 52% of its scoring, so certainly has a lot to prove.



I think you can probably count on that--for Duke in November it's always new team, new year, nothing proven, no?


http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=205330291&DB_OEM_ID=4200
"Duke has won 86 straight non-conference home games, the longest current streak in the NCAA. The last home loss against a non-conference opponent for the Blue Devils was on Feb. 26, 2000 against St. John’s, 83-82. "

This isn't new news, I think we all know this streak is on the line tonight. I also understand we respect Belmont as a very good opponent more than capable of beating us. BUT, with an 11+ year run on the line, I, for one, unlike many who has posted in this thread, WILL be surprised if we lose. Granted, every streak must come to and end, but I will certainly be surprised if its tonight.

Well, but couldn't the streak cut both ways? If the team is actually thinking about it, instead of just getting into the flow of the game and the moment, it could make them tense up or force things. Hopefully they are not thinking about it.

[Devilsfan]

After watching the Shaw exhibition I came away with the following impressions. Duke seems to be in "pc" terms point guard challenged right now. Ryan is by far the most all around fundamentally sound player on the court. And Austin if he stays around for a while is going to be a super star. (12pt. line is IMO too high for this very young squad).

[theAlaskanBear]

Very excited that I will get to watch the game on ESPN3 at work tonight! (Shhhh!)

Belmont is a good team and will probably give us a test, but I hope as fans we are psyching ourselves out and will roll to an easy victory. The key to game is for Seth to exert his leadership and for Rivers to not get too amped up. I worry he is going to be too high for his first game -- I think we will see a lot of Dawkins.

[mgtr]

I cannot imagine the circumstances which would cause me to bet against Duke, BUT 11 to 12 points may be a tough nut to cover. I conclude that Duke will win (not easily) but will be unable to cover the spread. In other words, a very close game! Seven more hours (sigh)

[Billy Dat]

Ray Horn will be doing previews and recaps for all the games this season on the site. If you're interested in learning a little more about Belmont, he reviewed all the video he could find and broke down their team from starters to the bench. They're returning nearly everyone so he was able to get a pretty good grasp on them: http://www.dukehoopblog.com/2011/11/09/game-preview-duke-vs-belmont-11-11-11/

Honestly, I think we take a loss in this one. Belmont is a very experienced squad with a lot of accurate perimeter shooters. This is one of Duke's biggest weaknesses and I'm afraid they'll be able to exploit it more than we will be able to exploit our size advantage inside. Hope I'm wrong!

In getting ready for this game, I have been scouring through previews and have to salute Airowe's (or, more specifically, his writer Ray Horn's) preview available from the link above. It is very well done, and I think if you want a snapshot of Belmont's personnel and how they will attempt to play tonight, you should read it.

If you watched the Bellarmine game, they sound similar. An experienced, winning program that runs their offense like clockwork and prefers to shoot 3s in bundles. Most of their offense comes from the perimeter where 4 of the 5 focus on shooting 3s with a big down low capable of converting from close in, offensive rebounding and redirecting passes for more 3s (sounds positively Zoubekian) Both of their centers were all conference last year, which i s really unique because they never play together in Belmont's 4 out 1 in spread system. They rarely put it on the deck, but we're going to have to really defend the perimeter. They are also well coached so maybe they start out with a different look and counter our aggressiveness by going at the rim to try and soften our insides to weaken our perimeter. Who knows.

Because of their 4-1 line-up, I presume we'll have a fairly significant size presence if two of the three of MP1/MP2/Kelly are always on the floor. It will be interesting to see if we can exploit that advantage on offense or be forced to go 4-1 ourselves because of mismatches. To me, that is a trend worth watching.

Horn's preview also says that Belmont doesn't defend the drive well, despite being extremely aggressive pressers and ballhawks. Sounds like we'll need to be efficient at getting the ball over halfcourt without chewing up too much clock. Then, I think we need to feed the bigs, and let Austin do his thing from the wings. Horn says they have great help when beaten off the drive..let's hope that Rivers (A) doesn't turn it over, (B) finds the bigs on the dish or lob and (C) can find Curry/Dawkins on the wings. Considering that our 3 point shooting as not been a strength in the preseason, let's hope to see it return in some more meaningful way tonight.

[mkline09]

Horn's preview also says that Belmont doesn't defend the drive well, despite being extremely aggressive pressers and ballhawks. Sounds like we'll need to be efficient at getting the ball over halfcourt without chewing up too much clock. Then, I think we need to feed the bigs, and let Austin do his thing from the wings. Horn says they have great help when beaten off the drive..let's hope that Rivers (A) doesn't turn it over, (B) finds the bigs on the dish or lob and (C) can find Curry/Dawkins on the wings. Considering that our 3 point shooting as not been a strength in the preseason, let's hope to see it return in some more meaningful way tonight.

Great points. I think in regards to Rivers that he began to show against Shaw that he can play within the system and not force things. I think we will continue to see growth from him on his decisions and his defense. I'm interested to see how the young freshman handle their first real game in Cameron. I'll be looking for the perimeter defense and communication to be better than it was over the two exhibitions. I'm not as worried about the lack of three point shooting as I think Duke and K are looking to exploit River's ability to get into the lane and dish to the bigs. I also look to see a lot of working the ball into the post. The three point shooting will come but I look for a strong defensive focus coming out of the game to try and generate some easy points in transition.

[oldnavy]

I assure you MCFinARL isn't really shocked or worried whether anyone is or isn't discussing gambling. It appears you missed the "Casablanca" reference and the infamous exchange between Claude Rains and Humphrey Bogart.

One of many classic lines from one of the best if not THE best movies of all time. I love the "round up the usual suspects" line.

As far as the game is concerned, I am a little nervous. Nothing like starting out against a talented and experienced team that has nothing to lose...

GO DUKE!!! GTHC.

[Billy Dat]

I also look to see a lot of working the ball into the post. The three point shooting will come but I look for a strong defensive focus coming out of the game to try and generate some easy points in transition.

Kelly has shown me an ability to effectively feed the post, which is aided by his size and his status as an outside threat. I am not sure why we don't try and run things that way. Part of it is that our offense isn't predicated on sets so the type of scenario I describe has to happen within the motion, and our motion has rarely rotated all the way to that point...we usually find that first open perimeter look and PULL!

With this year's team, I think I'd like to see us probe a bit more for those 2nd and 3rd reads, but it's hard to make those kind of pronouncements at this point...for all I know fewer possessions might not be in our best interest.

In regards to your point about transition baskets...as with most seasons, much will be determined by how well we defend. Will we force turnovers the way we have in the past? (who knows). Will we become more of a 2009/2010 type defense as I have heard others on this board postulate...one that doesn't pressure as much on the perimeter? Hard to tell, and I guess it depends on who, after Curry and Rivers, get the most perimeter minutes (Dawkins vs Tyler vs Cook). Mason and Miles are better in an uptempo style where they can exploit their transition speed and dunking ability so you'd think we need to be able to play that way. Ryan is better in the halfcourt. Lots of questions...

[mkline09]

Kelly has shown me an ability to effectively feed the post, which is aided by his size and his status as an outside threat. I am not sure why we don't try and run things that way. Part of it is that our offense isn't predicated on sets so the type of scenario I describe has to happen within the motion, and our motion has rarely rotated all the way to that point...we usually find that first open perimeter look and PULL!

With this year's team, I think I'd like to see us probe a bit more for those 2nd and 3rd reads, but it's hard to make those kind of pronouncements at this point...for all I know fewer possessions might not be in our best interest.

In regards to your point about transition baskets...as with most seasons, much will be determined by how well we defend. Will we force turnovers the way we have in the past? (who knows). Will we become more of a 2009/2010 type defense as I have heard others on this board postulate...one that doesn't pressure as much on the perimeter? Hard to tell, and I guess it depends on who, after Curry and Rivers, get the most perimeter minutes (Dawkins vs Tyler vs Cook). Mason and Miles are better in an uptempo style where they can exploit their transition speed and dunking ability so you'd think we need to be able to play that way. Ryan is better in the halfcourt. Lots of questions...

You are exactly right. Lots of questions and it may be mid season before we have a lot of answers. I guess without an on ball defender like Nolan Smith or even Lance Thomas who could force opposing teams to set up their offense further away from the basket, I'd guess with the youth/inexperience on the perimeter, that we will see the defense not pressure as far out as they did last year. Namely because aside from Thornton and Curry, the perimeter defense could be a weakness until the young guys learn the system. I like Cook but his lateral quickness may still be a work in progress as he recovers from his injury. Not sure if Andre Dawkins is ever going to be a lock-down defender. Rivers I think can but he is still young and still learning. Hopefully they learn quick because the schedule is just brutal to start the season. Defense I think will key all other things.

[Gewebe14]

Where did you guys see that it will be on ESPN3? I'm not seeing on their list of upcoming events...

[-jk]

It's showing here for me: http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index/_/source/espn3/#type/upcoming/

-jk

[Gewebe14]

It's showing here for me: http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index/_/source/espn3/#type/upcoming/

-jk

whoops thanks - I was trying to search for Duke using control F and I guess no words come through on that page...

Good news about the game!

[Saratoga2]

Interesting substitutions by coach.The sloopy care of the ball is causing coach to look for a lineup that can value the ball. Rebounding and foul shooting are looking good though.

[1 24 90]

Is it too early to vote Tyler Thornton for Man of the Match?

[SMO]

AR could be the best 1 on 1 player in the country.

[_Gary]

When we have the droughts on offense like we are currently I really do miss not having a PG in the mold of Kyrie. Right now we don't seem to have any facilitator. Seth is doing what he can playing somewhat out of position as the point, and Tyler has made a few solid plays, but overall we are hurting on offense.