Goodman on Duke Today

[feldspar]

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/32938963


Speaking of defense, I'm concerned about Duke's perimeter defense. The trio of Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins and Austin Rivers isn't exactly known for their defensive prowess. All three want to score the basketball. That's why Tyler Thornton will likely see plenty of time because he's the most consistent guard on the defensive end. "We're not going to be a team that forces turnovers," Coach K said. "That's not their DNA. But we need to be a team that limits second shots and keeps people off the foul line."

Really? Tyler Thornton more consistent defensively than Seth Curry?

Does Jeff not remember that Curry led the team in steals last year? Or that he was 7th in the ACC in the same category? Not to mention Dawkins, who does tend to get beat off the dribble but does particularly well on help defense. It's not like we have a defensive all-star team out there, but I wouldn't say our backcourt is going to leak like a sieve or anything.


Ryan Kelly was arguably the Blue Devils top player on their trip to China and I bought into the fact he'll be one of the team's top players, but now I'm not quite convinced. Kelly can make shots, but I think he'll be inconsistent this season. He's also suspect on the defensive end.

Would have been nice if Jeff had maybe clarified what changed his mind about Kelly. Everything I've read or seen about him shows he's set to make a pretty nice leap this season. And I really don't understand the remark about his being "suspect" on the defensive end. Kelly was one of our best defensive stoppers in several games last year.


The Seth Curry point guard experiment will be critical for Duke this season. Curry, like his older brother, is a scorer at heart. However, Stephen was able to make the transition to point guard at Davidson. Can Seth do the same at Duke? It's going to take time and will be far more difficult because Stephen had to carry Davidson while Seth has to balance scoring the ball and also keeping his teammates happy.

Okay, this I can get on board with. I think most people are nervously waiting to see how Curry transitions to the point.

[CDu]

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/32938963



Really? Tyler Thornton more consistent defensively than Seth Curry?

Does Jeff not remember that Curry led the team in steals last year? Or that he was 7th in the ACC in the same category? Not to mention Dawkins, who does tend to get beat off the dribble but does particularly well on help defense. It's not like we have a defensive all-star team out there, but I wouldn't say our backcourt is going to leak like a sieve or anything.

Leading the team in steals doesn't necessarily imply great defense. For example, Thornton probably would get a lot of steals with more minutes, but I wouldn't call him a great defender (at least not on-ball defense). I think it remains to be seen how good Curry is defensively, as last year he wasn't typically assigned to the other team's best perimeter player. That was Nolan Smith's job.

Similarly, I think there are plenty of questions regarding Dawkins' defense. I don't remember him being particularly impressive in help defense. He may be fine, but I think it's a legitimate question. But I agree that we aren't going to leak like a sieve on the perimeter.


Would have been nice if Jeff had maybe clarified what changed his mind about Kelly. Everything I've read or seen about him shows he's set to make a pretty nice leap this season. And I really don't understand the remark about his being "suspect" on the defensive end. Kelly was one of our best defensive stoppers in several games last year.

Again, I think it might be overstating things to call Kelly one of our best defensive stoppers. I don't know if he's suspect, but I wouldn't call him a defensive stopper.

[jv001]

Thank you for the Goodman link. Not that I'm agreeing with him, but I have questions regarding Duke's man to man defense. We lost 3 excellent defenders in Nolan, Kyrie and Kyle. How Seth, Austin and Andre perform in Coach K's defense has me concerned as well. I know that Seth is a very good off the ball defender and Andre improved in that area as well, but on the ball defense is another matter. As for Ryan, I expect a very good year from him as long as he doesn't have to guard the oppositions 3. Lot's of questions with this years squad. GoDuke!

[CDu]

Thank you for the Goodman link. Not that I'm agreeing with him, but I have questions regarding Duke's man to man defense. We lost 3 excellent defenders in Nolan, Kyrie and Kyle. How Seth, Austin and Andre perform in Coach K's defense has me concerned as well. I know that Seth is a very good off the ball defender and Andre improved in that area as well, but on the ball defense is another matter. As for Ryan, I expect a very good year from him as long as he doesn't have to guard the oppositions 3. Lot's of questions with this years squad. GoDuke!

I agree with this. And I'll add that I'm not worried about Kelly having to guard the 3 (aside from the occasional screen switch). He's not going to play there unless things go terribly terribly wrong with our perimeter guys.

[jv001]

I agree with this. And I'll add that I'm not worried about Kelly having to guard the 3 (aside from the occasional screen switch). He's not going to play there unless things go terribly terribly wrong with our perimeter guys.

You bring up a great point about Kelly switching in our man to man. And if our guards don't play very well on the ball defense, we will get caught in some bad situations. From what Coach K has said it looks like the starting 5 will be Seth, Austin, Mason, Miles and Ryan. I don't think that will be the case come ACC time. Maybe even earlier with our tough schedule before ACC play. We're a work in progress. GoDuke!

[weezie]

Hey feldspar!
Long time no "see."
Welcome back.

[phaedrus]

Indeed, when was the last time we had a team so full of questions on the defensive end? From Nolan and Kyle last year, four years of Scheyer and Lance, Dave McClure, DeMarcus, Shelden, Dockery, and Duhon, our teams have, with remarkable consistency, been stocked with some talented, smart, intense defensive players. In fact, we've had a player on the ACC All-Defensive squad every year since 1997, and more often than not, we've had more than one. And that leaves out the type of defensive player that often gets overlooked - Singler, Scheyer, and McClure, for instance.

I say this not out of concern, but curiousity. Who's going to carry the torch?

[feldspar]

Hey feldspar!
Long time no "see."
Welcome back.

Thanks weezie. Good to be back. :o

[Wander]

I say this not out of concern, but curiousity. Who's going to carry the torch?

I would guess that by this point in their careers one of the Plumlees will have developed good enough instincts on when not to help/go for the block/foul to be a really, really good defensive player.

[screenname]

Indeed, when was the last time we had a team so full of questions on the defensive end? From Nolan and Kyle last year, four years of Scheyer and Lance, Dave McClure, DeMarcus, Shelden, Dockery, and Duhon, our teams have, with remarkable consistency, been stocked with some talented, smart, intense defensive players. In fact, we've had a player on the ACC All-Defensive squad every year since 1997, and more often than not, we've had more than one. And that leaves out the type of defensive player that often gets overlooked - Singler, Scheyer, and McClure, for instance.

I say this not out of concern, but curiousity. Who's going to carry the torch?

Well stated and well rounded.
CDU and others make great points and I think Goodman is on to something. There has been so much talk about the perimeter scoring and dribble penetration. I get it - but I wonder if we have over looked the Duke staple. Defense. I don't think we will have perimeter hemorrhages but I am interested to see if our perimeter all stars are as improved on defense as offense- mainly Dre'. I may be alone in this but his attitude concerns me. Like most Duke fans, I want this young man to rule the world but so far it seems as though he is still finding his role on this team. It sounds as though Dre is now a solid 6th man instead of in the starting rotation. This is not a bad thing but let us be honest here, who thought he wouldn't be a lock to start in the summer? It just "feels" like Andre should be able to do anything on the court- anything.
Ryan Kelly will be Ryan Kelly but can he guard an elite, hell, semi elite 4's in the Acc? I hope so . Duke will score - period. Can we play K level defense? Not concerned either but curious as well - with a pinch of objectivity. Go google your stats and respond.

[wk2109]

From what Coach K has said it looks like the starting 5 will be Seth, Austin, Mason, Miles and Ryan.

What has he said that has suggested this?

[Newton_14]

You bring up a great point about Kelly switching in our man to man. And if our guards don't play very well on the ball defense, we will get caught in some bad situations. From what Coach K has said it looks like the starting 5 will be Seth, Austin, Mason, Miles and Ryan. I don't think that will be the case come ACC time. Maybe even earlier with our tough schedule before ACC play. We're a work in progress. GoDuke!

I can assure you there is no chance the starting lineup will be Seth, Austin, Mason, Miles, and Ryan at any point in the season. Ryan, Mason, and Miles will never see the floor together unless K is experimenting in an early season blowout. Jim Sumner recently asked Ryan specifically would he see anytime at the 3 this year, and Ryan answered with "No, those days are behind me". Andre will most likely join Seth, Austin, Ryan, and Miles at the beginning of the season. Murphy will be pushing Andre, and Mason will be pushing both Ryan and Miles.

I still think we are much better defensively with Mason and Miles starting in the front-court, which may end up happening sooner than later. On the other side of that coin, we are better offensively with Ryan at the 4 and either Miles or Mason at the 5. At any rate, those 3 will rotate in those 2 spots, with Josh getting minutes at the 4 early on.

I am not overly concerned with the perimeter defense. I have confidence in Seth to pressure the ball, and Tyler should be improved over last year when, despite the foul rate, he was very disruptive on defense. He rarely goes for fakes, and moves his feet well on D. Austin looked improved in CTC and has the skills to be a good defender if he sets his mind to it. Andre is worlds better on defense than he was as a freshman. I expect him to be improved as well. Jury is still out on Cook. Looking forward to see what he can do.

Do we have a Nolan Smith? Nope. But we do have quality depth on the perimeter, and we have experienced bigs waiting in the paint when the perimeter guys get beat.

We won't be a defensive juggernaut, but I certainly don't feel we will be weak on the defensive end.

[dcar1985]

Im pretty sure this is where all the Seth, Austin, Ryan, Mason, Miles talk started....this was from Mark Watson of BDN

"Our guess is that the brothers Plumlee will start alongside Ryan Kelly with Austin Rivers and Seth Curry in the backcourt. But we also think you will see as many as four more players crack the starting rotation at some point this season."

"Andre Dawkins is surely in the lineup, probably the sixth man, but can he be consistent when not jacking the threes?"

http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/10/bdn-monday-musings-tony-parker-visit-duke-opens-with-bellarmine-rotations-and-more/

[Duvall]

Im pretty sure this is where all the Seth, Austin, Ryan, Mason, Miles talk started....this was from Mark Watson of BDN

"Our guess is that the brothers Plumlee will start alongside Ryan Kelly with Austin Rivers and Seth Curry in the backcourt. But we also think you will see as many as four more players crack the starting rotation at some point this season."

Well, that's almost certainly wrong.

[Newton_14]

Im pretty sure this is where all the Seth, Austin, Ryan, Mason, Miles talk started....this was from Mark Watson of BDN

"Our guess is that the brothers Plumlee will start alongside Ryan Kelly with Austin Rivers and Seth Curry in the backcourt. But we also think you will see as many as four more players crack the starting rotation at some point this season."

"Andre Dawkins is surely in the lineup, probably the sixth man, but can he be consistent when not jacking the threes?"

http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/10/bdn-monday-musings-tony-parker-visit-duke-opens-with-bellarmine-rotations-and-more/


Well, that's almost certainly wrong.

Thanks dcar. I don't understand Wats at all on that one. Intriquing lineup from a height perspective, but I stick by my guns, that there is just no way we see that lineup as a starting 5. With the 3 small forwards we have (4 if we go 3-guard with Austin at SF) there is just no need to use Ryan at the 3.

Edit: Given my recent luck, that will be the starting lineup this Saturday Night!:D

[Kedsy]

Do we have a Nolan Smith? Nope. But we do have quality depth on the perimeter, and we have experienced bigs waiting in the paint when the perimeter guys get beat.

I think this is the key point. We may lack elite individual defenders, but our team defense could be very strong, with four juniors and a senior among our top six players. Remains to be seen whether it will be very strong, but it certainly could be.

[Olympic Fan]

A few points:

-- I'm pretty sure that we won't see much (if at all) of Mason, Miles and Ryan together. Almost certainly those three will share the two post spots (which is why there appears to be little time for Marshall and Josh). We'll go with three guards in most situations -- unless Murphy or Gbinije (who will both be strictly 3s to start with) are in the game.

-- Agree that steals do not equal great defense. Not saying that our guards are weak defenders, but Tyler is clearly the best on-the-ball stopper. Still, concerns about our backcopurt defense seem ludicrous to me compared to other people's situation. Kendall Marshall, for instance is a great playmaker but a godawful defender -- MUCH worse than Curry or Dawkins (too early to tell with Rivers). Maybe he'll be better this year (and maybe Curry will be). Bullock is indifferent defensively. Too early to tell with PJ Hairston. Only Strickland is an above-average backcourt defender in Chapel Hill ... is Goodman worrying about UNC's backcourt defense?

-- K has been remarkably flexible in his defensive scheme. Sure he always plays man-to-man, but people don't understand that he varies it from year-to-year to suit personnel and depth. He can play it soft and he can play it tight. He can pick up fullcourt, midcourt or merly extend to the 3-point line. There have been times recently when we switched everything -- because guys like Kyle and Nolan and Gerald and DeMarcus could guard almost every sized player. I suspect they will switch less this season to avoid having Kelly caught guarding smaller players on the perimeter and to avoid our guards getting locked up on big screeners.

On the other hand, K has said that the point of this year's defense will be to funnel everything to the best group of shotblockers we've ever had (just to clarify, Shelden was a bgetter shotblocker than anybody on this team, but the trio of Mason, Miles and Ryan are the best group of shotblockers K has ever had. And it's just one scrimmage, but Murphy had four blocks in 24 minutes in the Blue-White game. Kelly averaged more blocks per minute last year than Mason and Mason was sixth in the ACC).

I'll be interested to see how K addresses what look to be two defensive flaws with his likely lineup -- there's not a great on-the-ball defender unless Thornton plays a lot ad there's not a natural wing defender unless either Gbinije or Murphy (again, just one scrimmage, but he was amazingly advanced defensively in the Blue-White game) claim major roles. Of course, after Barnes, there aren't a ton of dangerous 3s in the ACC. A lot of teams are going to be using guys who physically look a lot like Dawkins and Rivers (such as Snaer at FSU). Maybe Leslie plays some 3 at State, but teams such as Miami and Maryland may end up playing four guards.

But I'm convinced that he will address the problems. As a previous poster noted, it's about TEAM defense and that doesn't always equate o the sum of the individuals.

-- And just one more point: K has said that he expects this to be one of his best rebounding teams. A defensive rebound is actually a part of the defense -- it equates to a turnover in that he limits the offensive opportunities of an opponent. So if Duke rebounds better, it would offset a bit of defensive dropoff.

[slower]

A few points:

-- I'm pretty sure that we won't see much (if at all) of Mason, Miles and Ryan together.


Maybe K will abandon the late-game "stall-ball" with "tall-ball". Just play catch where the defense can't reach it! ;)

[jv001]

Im pretty sure this is where all the Seth, Austin, Ryan, Mason, Miles talk started....this was from Mark Watson of BDN

"Our guess is that the brothers Plumlee will start alongside Ryan Kelly with Austin Rivers and Seth Curry in the backcourt. But we also think you will see as many as four more players crack the starting rotation at some point this season."

"Andre Dawkins is surely in the lineup, probably the sixth man, but can he be consistent when not jacking the threes?"

http://bluedevilnation.net/2011/10/bdn-monday-musings-tony-parker-visit-duke-opens-with-bellarmine-rotations-and-more/

Think the big lineup just for Saturday's game with Tony Parker being on campus might have something to do with that starting five? Coach K might want to show big Tony how Duke can make the bigs option #1 in our offense. I certainly don't think that will be the starting lineup for many games. For Duke to be very good we need to get good production/mins from Andre, Cook or Murphy. Well that's my opinion anyway. GoDuke!

[CDu]

Think the big lineup just for Saturday's game with Tony Parker being on campus might have something to do with that starting five? Coach K might want to show big Tony how Duke can make the bigs option #1 in our offense. I certainly don't think that will be the starting lineup for many games. For Duke to be very good we need to get good production/mins from Andre, Cook or Murphy. Well that's my opinion anyway. GoDuke!

Do we even think that big lineup will be the lineup for Saturday's game? I can't see how make the lane more congested would emphasize the value of a particular big. I think we could probably more easily emphasize the value of a big by having 2 bigs and simply focusing on getting them the ball in good spots.

I mean, this whole talk of a 3-big lineup just seems to be based on BDN's guess about the lineup - not what the actual lineup will be. Such a lineup isn't consistent with what Duke did in any of the China/UAE exhibitions, it's not consistent with what Coach K has typically preferred in a starting lineup (better athleticism on the perimeter), and it's not consistent with what Kelly said directly to a poster when asked about playing the 3.

[jv001]

Do we even think that big lineup will be the lineup for Saturday's game? I can't see how make the lane more congested would emphasize the value of a particular big. I think we could probably more easily emphasize the value of a big by having 2 bigs and simply focusing on getting them the ball in good spots.

I mean, this whole talk of a 3-big lineup just seems to be based on BDN's guess about the lineup - not what the actual lineup will be. Such a lineup isn't consistent with what Duke did in any of the China/UAE exhibitions, it's not consistent with what Coach K has typically preferred in a starting lineup (better athleticism on the perimeter), and it's not consistent with what Kelly said directly to a poster when asked about playing the 3.


Hey, I agree and I could see Coach K going with 4 perimeter players over that 3 big lineup. He's been known to go small. But I think we will see Seth, Austin, Andre, Miles and Ryan as starters. That lineup makes more sense to me, but we'll just wait and see what happens. GoDuke!