PDA

View Full Version : Top Movies of the Holidays



Udaman
10-24-2011, 11:32 AM
I know, I know..seems like the summer just ended. And after all, it's only October, and not even Halloween....but just like the Summer Blockbuster season keeps creeping backwards, so to does the Christmas / Thanksgiving season.

This Friday, Puss N Boots opens, and there is NO DOUBT that this is a contender for top 5 over the season, and no doubt they are hoping it to still draw big come Thanksgiving.

Given that, we need to start the pool now. So, decide between the typical holiday animation movies, the dramas, the action flicks, and the feel good stories. (and by the way, this list looks brutal...other than Twilight, and Sherlock, I think a ton of them have a great shot to make the top 5.

Olympic Fan
10-24-2011, 01:55 PM
Not a very inspiring list ... went for the kiddie and the teen movies. The only one I might go see myself is Harold and Kumar (as long as I can find a theater that is NOT showing it in 3-S. I will not pay to see a 3-D movie!)

I think I'll spend a lot more time watching my Christmas DVD collection:

8. A Christmass Carol (the Alistair Sim version)
7. All I Want for Christmas
6. Three Godfathers
5. Scrooged
4. Christmas in Connecticut
3. A Christmas Story ("You'll shoot your eye out")

And on Christmas eve:
2. Miracle on 34th Street
1. It's a Wonderful Life

Udaman
10-24-2011, 02:30 PM
Personally, my favorite version of A Christmas Carol was the one with Henry Winkler in it. I saw it once, and don't know if it's even on anymore....but he nailed it. Most Scrooges are just too mean to start with (Patrick Stewart being the best example)....Winkler was a workaholic who was mean to others only because he couldn't understand why everyone didn't feel the need to work as hard as he did.

Another I would add to the list is When Harry Met Sally (more a New Year's Eve kind of watching, though)

Also looking forward to Harold...though the 2nd was a major bummer.

rasputin
10-24-2011, 04:13 PM
Personally, my favorite version of A Christmas Carol was the one with Henry Winkler in it. I saw it once, and don't know if it's even on anymore....but he nailed it. Most Scrooges are just too mean to start with (Patrick Stewart being the best example)....Winkler was a workaholic who was mean to others only because he couldn't understand why everyone didn't feel the need to work as hard as he did.

Another I would add to the list is When Harry Met Sally (more a New Year's Eve kind of watching, though)

Also looking forward to Harold...though the 2nd was a major bummer.

I'm partial to the Christmas Carol version that starred George C. Scott, although we also enjoy the Alistair Sim performance.

davekay1971
10-24-2011, 04:29 PM
Not exactly a list of must-sees, is it? I'm doubting that the holiday season will make up for the poor summer turnout. Where's the LOTR entry to provide something worth watching this holiday season?

Not many choices seem easy or safe.

MI:4 - entry into a successful but played out series. I'm personally interested to see what animation genius Brad Bird does with the live action, but, well, it's Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt...again.

Puss In Boots: Spinoff from a played out series. Take the best character and try to squeeze some box office $$ out of a stand-alone story. I'll see it at some point with the kids for the Antonio Banderas and Selma Hayek voice work. On DVD. If the reviews are ok.

Twilight: I'm not sure how much you would have to pay me to watch this, but amazingly there are plenty of people who work that equation the other way around. Which is why Hollywood makes stuff like this. It's probably as close to a shoo-in as anything on the list.

Sherlock Holmes 2: The first movie felt like such a missed opportunity. It wasn't a BAD movie, it just wasn't as good as it should have been. Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law are very well cast. My wife and I both have Rachel McAdams number 2 behind Scarlett Johansson on the list of women we'd risk ruining our marriage to be with (which is about reason number 73 I'm blessed to have the wife I have). Is McAdams in this or not? She's on the IMDB cast, not seen in trailer 1, seen in a single brief shot in trailer 2, her name's not splashed on the cast list in either trailer...I'm confused. Anyway, I'm hoping (but not expecting) that Mr. Madonna will get it right this time.

Happy Feet 2: blech. My last choice. The first movie turned into such a manipulative piece of soap-box preaching. I have less interest in watching this than I do Twilight. But the kiddies will want to see the penguins doing a rip-off of Stomp all over again, so I put it in my top 5.

Addendum: All my complaining about lack of must-sees aside, at some point I will make sure to see J. Edgar, if not in the theater, then on DVD. DiCaprio has become one of my favorite actors and has really been nailing his roles the last few years. I will be very interested to see him perform in a biopic on one of the more interesting and controversial Americans of the last century.

JasonEvans
10-24-2011, 05:10 PM
Thanks to Udaman for putting this together. As most of ya'll know, I have been out of town and just got back. It is good that he did this before the Puss opening on Friday, which could be a real player for the Top 5.

I see this winter as a very difficult one to call. There are a couple that I think are locks, but the awards contenders are the tough ones to figure out as they often show much longer legs and get a real push into January that boosts their boxoffice. Last winter it took The King's Speech 7 weeks to even reach the top 10 in the weekend boxoffice. But, it then stayed in the top 10 for 10 consecutive weekends and went on to make $135 mil.

There are movies not even on your list that could be real contenders, like War Horse, We Bought a Zoo, New Year's Eve, and Immortals. I think Jack and Jill has a better shot at the Top 5 of winter than The Sitter does.

Anyway, here are my picks--


Twilight - a mortal lock to make $250 mil+. The last one made $300 mil. I cannot see how this one does worse than that.
Sherlock 2 - the last one made $210 mil as a film launching a franchise. I cannot see how this one does not make at least the same amount.
Dragon Tattoo - there are 15 million copies of the book in print. At $10 per ticket, that is $150 mill in boxoffice just from folks who read the book... assuming no one ever shared the book with a family member or friend.



After those three, it gets a bit harder.

I think the trailer for Ghost Protocol looks awesome. It is the first live-action film by director Brad Bird, who is yet to make a movie that was not great (Iron Giant, Incredibles, Ratatouille). I have great confidence in him and in producer JJ Abrams. But... Tom Cruise is boxoffice poison. Seriously. I thought MI III was a really good film and it only made $134 mil because so many people don't like Tom Cruise any more. Neither Valkyrie nor Knight & Day managed to even make $90 million. That's bad for a big star like TC. If this movie had just about any other star in the lead, I would be picking it in a heartbeat. With Tom... I just don't know.

I saw a screening of Puss in Boots over the weekend. It is ok -- neither horrible nor great. It has a huge head start on the season but I am not sure it will quite have the quality to get to the $150 mil it needs to be in the Top 5.

I am petrified to pick one of the many kid flicks over the rest. Puss, Happy Feet 2, Arthur Christmas, The Muppets, Alvin and the Chipmunks -- I just don't know which of these to pick. Maybe none of them?!?!

And then there are the superstar directors going against type -- Spielberg doing animation with Tintin and Scorsese doing family fun with Hugo... ordinarily picking either of these directors would be a decent move, but the pool of family films is really deep this season.

Spielberg actually releases two major films the same week with Tintin and War Horse coming just days apart. I don't think I can ever recall a director doing that.

I'll think a bit more before making my final choices. This is much tougher for me than the summer was.

-Jason "good to be back on the DBR!" Evans

Udaman
10-25-2011, 01:43 PM
The previews look truly, truly awful. I mean cringe worthy awful. This is going to get absolutely obliterated by the critics. Torn to shreds. Sandler is normally gold, and has a big group that will go see anything he does (see GrownUps)....but this looks more like Mr. Deeds or Click....only not as good.

I think it might break $100M....but probably won't.

JE - you are right that it will likely do better than The Sitter.....but those previews look kind of funny, compared to this one. I just think Jack N Jill is going to tank. We'll see.

As for the Top 5....Twilight and Sherlock are locks. I'm not sold on Girl With the Dragon Tatoo. It's really dark. It's a brutal subject matter. It will be rated R for sure (and not a comedy). It's also up against huge, huge competition (they are making a bad decision to release it when they are going against Mission Impossible, Sherlock Holmes and TinTin). This won't be in my top 5.

JasonEvans
10-25-2011, 02:19 PM
As for the Top 5....Twilight and Sherlock are locks. I'm not sold on Girl With the Dragon Tatoo. It's really dark. It's a brutal subject matter. It will be rated R for sure (and not a comedy). It's also up against huge, huge competition (they are making a bad decision to release it when they are going against Mission Impossible, Sherlock Holmes and TinTin). This won't be in my top 5.

You are maxing out at 4 out of 5 then.

The foreign language version of Dragon Tattoo, which never played in more than 200 theaters, earned more than 10 million dollars in the U.S. -- the best performance by a foreign language film in 3 years. That was with zero advertising budget and subtitles.

Like I said, there are 15 million copies of this book in print. Many books get read by more than one person, as they get passed around to friends and family. The audience for this movie of just folks who read the book make it a virtual lock to earn $180 mil. I agree that it is being released at a time when there will be tremendous competition at the boxoffice, but I will be beyond stunned if this film doesn't reach a huge audience.

Yes, it is dark, but the audience knows to expect that. The trailers generated fabulous buzz and I have tremendous confidence in director David Fincher. I mean, has he ever made a bad movie? Writer Steven Zaillian has a great track record too.

So, we've got a film with a huge built-in audience and one of the best directors in Hollywood working on a story that we already know to be excellent (though I think they will have to excise huge chunks of it for the movie). I cannot think of any way this movie is not a tremendous success.

I may be working against myself in this contest, by convincing other folks to bet on this movie, but I consider it a mortal lock to be in the top 5.

-Jason "this article (http://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-girl-with-dragon-tattoo-sandy-122478/) makes it clear -- Fincher is producing a very dark film... but I think the Dragon Tattoo audience will appreciate that" Evans

Udaman
10-25-2011, 03:29 PM
Damn you and your logic!!!!

Yes, you are probably right.

I just see MI 4, Twilight and Sherlock as absolute locks. That leaves 2 spots.

Alvin (and its sequal) both made over $200M. I think that's highly likely this time as well (kids love it, and it is rated G, and it comes out Dec 16th, so no real "true kid" competition from that point on (both the other kid movies will lean toward the older crowd).

Then you have Muppets (which all my kids want to see) and Arthur, and Happy Feet, and Hugo....one of these will get good reviews and be like Tangled was last year.

I think in the end it will come down to MI4 v. Tattoo....and it all depends on the Cruise factor. Then again, we could have a sleeper come out of nowhere.

Tough year, for sure.

JasonEvans
10-25-2011, 04:02 PM
Damn you and your logic!!!!

Yes, you are probably right.

If it as not for Fincher being in charge, I would be seriously worried about this flick and would likely be in your boat expecting it to be too dark for the mainstream public. But the dude makes quality films and often does quite well when he verges into the dark (Se7en, Fight Club, Zodiac). I am banking on him as much as I am on the huge success of the book in picking this film.

Similarly, I am probably going to pick MI:4 because of Brad Bird... despite the drawdown that is Tom Cruise.

As for my 5th pick -- I refuse to pick that junk that is the Chipmunks! Those films are horrid. I know they make money hand over fist but I would rather be wrong than pick one of them! I feel the same about Happy Feet.

I'll probably go with another director for my #5 -- perhaps J Edgar (Eastwood), Tintin (Spielberg), Hugo (MartyS), or War Horse (Spielberg).

When does this thing end? If it goes until mid-February, War Horse may become quite attractive as it is getting some good Oscar-related buzz.

-Jason "going kid-flick is always a good idea though-- I'll probably be dead wrong about something this winter" Evans

Turk
10-25-2011, 05:52 PM
Gotta go with the Muppets. The Muppet Family Christmas is a classic, so both young Turks and old Turks (some of whom just refuse to grow up) will be very interested to see how this one turns out...

rthomas
10-25-2011, 08:19 PM
Can't wait for Dragon Tattoo. The books by Stieg Larsson were crazy good - the suck you in kind of good. The trilogy of Swedish movies with Noomi Rapace were excellent - the kind of movie where you can not wait for the next and she was amazing. Looking forward to Daniel Craig and Rooney Mara. I hope they are half as good as the subtitled Swedish ones. Even half as good will be awesome.

DevilAlumna
10-26-2011, 12:07 AM
Twilight - a mortal lock


Pun intended?? :D


I was wondering why no mention of "One for the Money," but see that it's not coming out until post-holidays. I was all prepared to make an argument why it might draw a stronger-than-expected box office.

JasonEvans
10-26-2011, 10:54 AM
I was wondering why no mention of "One for the Money," but see that it's not coming out until post-holidays. I was all prepared to make an argument why it might draw a stronger-than-expected box office.

I would loooove to hear this argument. We are talking about a film starring Katherine Heigl, who has been in exactly one film that made $100+ million (Knocked Up). She does not exactly have a great track record of quality films either. One For The Money does not feature an established director or writer either. It is getting a late-January release, which is a bit of a kiss of death and generally means then movie is just not all that good.

I know that the Stephanie Plumb novels are big and generally hit #1 on Amazon and other bookseller lists, but even if it was released in mid-December, I don's see this film as one that will come close to making around $150 million, which is the approx. threshold for being one of the Top 5 of the season.

I would expect One to make about $40-$60 million -- right in the range of what Katherine Heigl's last couple movies made.

-Jason "if the film is better than expect, I could see it getting to $80 mil, but more than that would be a huge, huge surprise" Evans

Udaman
10-27-2011, 09:28 AM
I did my vote. A few things:

1) All of you who didn't take Alvin & the Chipmunks have ensured you will lose. The TERRIBLE (and I mean terrible) 2nd movie made over $200M. This movie is a lock for $175M - people will take their little kids and they will love it.

2) The hardest pick for me was the last one. I went with The Muppets. Why? Because I think at least 2 kid movies will make the top 5, and Chipmunks is one of those. As for the other, I'm going with my kids. They've all seen the preview and they all want to see The Muppets. Plus I think the parents will have nostalgia going for them. Finally, I think Arthur Christmas just won't quite work, and TinTin looks too grown up (and dark), and Hugo looks just darn strange.

3) I really wanted to pick MI 4....just couldn't do it.

4) I did go with GWTDT....but have a feeling I might regret it.

5) The final tabulation will be January 30th (the end of that weekend). This gives the X-Mas movies 5 full weeks.

6) The wildcards, in my opinion, are the adult comedies (Harold & Kumar, The Sitter), and of course the kid movies.

7) Happy Feet 2 looks...truly terrible.

JasonEvans
10-27-2011, 03:51 PM
4) I did go with GWTDT....but have a feeling I might regret it.

This is cheating! You only picked it because I convinced you ;)

-Jason "Crud, now I fear your picks and my picks may be virtually identical" Evans

El_Diablo
10-29-2011, 11:23 AM
There are only about ten minutes left until the poll closes.

Get those votes in--more wrong voters will make my 5/5 appear even more impressive! ;)

JasonEvans
10-29-2011, 12:36 PM
Ohmygod! I got caught up in some work stuff and totally forgot to vote in time. I am so sorry!!

In any event, my choices are:

Twilight
Sherlock 2
Dragon Tattoo
MI: 4
and Tintin

--Jason "I bow to the will of the masses as to whether my choices count ;)" Evans

davekay1971
10-29-2011, 06:55 PM
I say to hell with the rules...let Evans in! Arrrgghh!

snowdenscold
10-30-2011, 11:51 AM
I am overseas and have had no access to internet for about a week, so forgive me for missing the poll. I have no idea how any B.O. returns have been so far, because of course, I check DBR first =)

Anyway, I'd like to vote for Twilight, Sherlock Holmes, Chipmunks, Happy Feet, and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

mph
10-31-2011, 10:43 AM
Puss in Boots pulled in $34,000,000 over the weekend. I'll leave it to the experts to interpret the numbers, but they seem borderline to me. PiB has the kids market to itself for a few weeks, so maybe it will have the legs necessary to make the top 5.

In Time produced only $12 million and The Rum Diary laid an egg with $5 million.

Udaman
11-01-2011, 08:55 AM
PIB is actually OK, I think. Normally you say double the take for a movie.....but the Noreaster kept a ton of people home this weekend.....and the timing for this movie could not have been better. There's no kids movie coming out until the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. None. That's pretty shocking. I bet PIN makes $35M this weekend, and $30M the weekend after, and then $25M the weekend after that. That's $125M with nothing coming in over Thanksgiving, where it will do fine. This movie could make $140-$150M, which would be enough.

Bottom line - I think this movie is a contender for sure.

JasonEvans
11-06-2011, 01:05 PM
Udaman was dead on target in predicting strong staying power for Puss in Boots. Its second weekend was $33 mil, a drop of less than 5% from last weekend's take. That is extremely impressive and a good sign that this film is getting positive word of mouth. It should hold up well next weekend too because Immortals, Jack and Jill, and J Edgar are not exactly family films. Puss in Boots is a major, major contender for the Top 5, no question about it.

Tower Heist is not. It did just $25 mil its opening weekend. That's a decent number for this film, but not nearly enough to get it to the $140+ mil range it will need to be one of the top films of the season. I think we can sorta write this one off.

-Jason "as an aside, Tower Heist is a decent flick-- not great, but not bad" Evans

Udaman
11-06-2011, 05:35 PM
Wow...I thought I might be close...but that was pretty much exact. I was disappointed that the article I read about it did not at all mention the weather last weekend. That was a HUGE reason the movie did not make $45M - basically Philly, New York, Boston and ever other city in NE had almost no action Saturday night, and nothing at all Sunday (and probably dozens of theaters had no power or were in cities that had no power).

This movie is going to do just as well, if not better, next weekend. I'm calling it now - PIB will be in the top 5.

And by the way, I was not going to see this in the theater, but then the reviews came out, and they were better than it sounded, and my kids had a few friends go see it, and they really liked it.....and now we are all going on Veterans Day this Friday.

And also saw Tower Heist on Friday...had a choice between that and In Time and Harold & Kumar. I think I chose poorly. As JE said...it was OK. There were a few parts that were really funny, and Eddie Murphy was pretty good. But there were parts that just made you cringe, and the last 35 minutes were 100% completely unbelievable. I mean, completely. Almost everything that happened left you going "Are you kidding - there's no way that could happen, at all. None." Again, and again, and again, and again. Bummer, because it actually could have been much better.

CameronBornAndBred
11-11-2011, 12:06 PM
The previews look truly, truly awful. I mean cringe worthy awful. This is going to get absolutely obliterated by the critics. Torn to shreds. Sandler is normally gold, and has a big group that will go see anything he does (see GrownUps)....but this looks more like Mr. Deeds or Click....only not as good.

I think it might break $100M....but probably won't.

JE - you are right that it will likely do better than The Sitter.....but those previews look kind of funny, compared to this one. I just think Jack N Jill is going to tank. We'll see.

As for the Top 5....Twilight and Sherlock are locks. I'm not sold on Girl With the Dragon Tatoo. It's really dark. It's a brutal subject matter. It will be rated R for sure (and not a comedy). It's also up against huge, huge competition (they are making a bad decision to release it when they are going against Mission Impossible, Sherlock Holmes and TinTin). This won't be in my top 5.

Although it features an inexplicably committed performance from Al Pacino, Jack and Jill is impossible to recommend on any level whatsoever.

21222122
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/jack_and_jill_2011/

JasonEvans
11-13-2011, 09:17 PM
I think all of us who did not vote for Puss in Boots are looking at 4-out-of-5... at the best. Puss did $25.5 million this weekend, just a 22% dropoff from last weekend. The film is showing extremely impressive staying power and now stands at $108.8 million in total boxoffice. The family film competition is about to really heat up (Happy Feet 2 this week; followed by Arthur Christmas, Hugo, and Muppets next week) which will take some bloom off the Puss rose, but I can't see any way this flick does not get to $150 million, which should be enough to get into our winter Top 5.

Immortals had an impressive weekend debuting to $32 million... which is just ridiculous. Those of you who follow me on Twitter know I have been ripping this film to shreds since I saw a screening of it last week. It is a visual treat but is sorely lacking in every single other element that makes a quality film. We are talking about one of the most ham-fisted scripts of the year. Blech! Still, in terms of boxoffice, the $32 mil is pretty good and there is not a lot of young male competition hitting theaters any time soon (unless young males plan to take young females to see Twilight), but I just think word of mouth will be bad and this flick will stumble. It will make $100 million, but not much more than that.

J Edgar did a little more than $11 million its opening weekend, which would ordinarily be a horrid start for a film hoping to reach our Top 5. But, J Edgar is angling itself as an Oscar contender and those kind of films have long legs. However, I have some bad news for the J Edgar voters -- I saw this film and it is not a strong Oscar contender. Frankly, I was kinda bored during much of it and it felt a bit like a history lesson (not in a good way). The acting was top notch; Leo may get a nomination and I think Armie Hammer (who played the twins in The Social Network) is a real Supporting Actor contender; but I don't think audiences will embrace this the way they do some Oscar flicks (like King's Speech or Black Swan, for example). I will be surprised if it makes even $100 million.

-Jason "my bottom line from this week-- Puss looks good, Immortals looks doubtful, J Edgar is toast" Evans

Olympic Fan
11-14-2011, 10:55 AM
Jason, you didn't mention Jack and Jill, which (according to Rotton Tomatoes) did a $26 million opening.

Hard to see how that translates to much over $100 ...

Also noted a huge dropoff in Harold and Kumar ... down to $5.9 million (just $23.2 million in two weeks). Not going to make ot anywhere near the top five.

And on a personal note, loved seeing Roland Emmerlich's "Anonymous" tank -- just 0.6 million in its thrid week and a paltry $3.8 million in three weeks of release. I know it wasn't on our list and nobody thought it would be top five, but I still grind my teeth at such preposterous pseudo-historical bunk (it's so absurd, it could have ben on the History Channel!). It deserves to be punished at the box office.

PensDevil
11-15-2011, 08:56 AM
Any review of the Muppets coming? I am not ashamed to say that I am really looking forward to seeing them back on the big screen again. Hopefully it turns out better than some of the more recent Muppet outings. The first trailer (the one where you don't see the muppets until half-way through) and the parody trailers have been brilliant.

I've been to exactly one movie in the past 3 years (thanks to Netflix and my home theater), but my soon to be 3 year-old daughter has become a big Muppets fan and we're thinking of making this her first movie theater experience. Probably matinee in case it doesn't go so well.

Blue in the Face
11-15-2011, 12:32 PM
Any review of the Muppets coming? I am not ashamed to say that I am really looking forward to seeing them back on the big screen again. Hopefully it turns out better than some of the more recent Muppet outings. The first trailer (the one where you don't see the muppets until half-way through) and the parody trailers have been brilliant.
Some of the long-timers involved aren't happy with the the film (http://blog.zap2it.com/pop2it/2011/10/frank-oz-muppet-old-guard-question-jason-segels-new-film.html). Whether they just want everyone off of their lawn or it's really a disappointment, we'll see soon enough.

JasonEvans
11-15-2011, 08:48 PM
A blogger/reviewer buddy of mine, Renn Brown, wrote this very nice review (http://www.chud.com/73982/savff-review-the-muppets/). He saw a screening of the film at the Savannah Film Festival and gave it 4.5 out of 5 stars. I have heard some other positive buzz too, though some are saying it is a bit too sweet and syrupy.

-Jason "I am seeing a screening on Saturday, I think. Will report back after" Evans

throatybeard
11-18-2011, 01:13 AM
Tell me which films are good, not which ones make box office.

JasonEvans
11-18-2011, 10:23 PM
Ok, so I somehow happened across this review of Immortals. It is by a Finnish guy who has relocated to New York and is writing reviews in sometimes broken English. His sentences sometimes make no sense, but he gets his point across quite nicely.

Be warned, his reviews contain more than a little bit of colorful language. Anyway, here is the link (http://mankabros.com/blogs/btp/2011/11/11/immortals-review/). Among my favorite lines from his review:


Why not now make the Nativity movie with the Amish and showgirls and talking goats? I would see that movie. Instead of Amish, showgirls, and the goats we get “The Immortals”.

They didn’t even release the Kraken (I yell this during bowel movements)!

-Jason "for what it is worth, I thought Immortals was only slightly better than Breaking Dawn" Evans

JasonEvans
11-21-2011, 07:33 AM
A few developments this weekend--

1) Breaking Dawn made almost $140 million, which is less than I expected it to make but still a huge, huge figure. It is a lock to make our top 5 and will likely be the #1 movie of the season.

2) Happy Feet 2 made just $22 million and faces really steep competition next week as a bunch of new kid-friendly movies open. I have a hard time seeing it making $100 million, let along the $150ish it would need to be in the top 5.

3) Puss in Boots had a steep drop, falling 56% to just $10 million. It's total stands at $122.3 million. With all the kid competition coming, Puss is going to exit a lot of theaters very quickly. I think it will probably end up at only about $140 mil. It is possible that could make it our "bubble boy," just barely missing the top 5. We'll see.

-Jason

Turk
11-23-2011, 10:33 AM
Looks like the Muppets movie is watchable. Huzzah, huzzah!! I think we'll find some time to squeeze it in this weekend.

http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/movies/2011/11/_the_muppets_jason_segal_loves_felt_and_it_shows_. html

Subtitle: "Frog march your family to the new Muppets movie this holiday weekend."

Money quote: "...your most pertinent questions as regards the new Muppet movie are probably, a) Is it an abominable desecration? And, b) Should I take Mom and the kids to see it on Thanksgiving? And the answers are, respectively, not at all and hell, yeah."

Bonus linky about Sesame Street's catchiest song "Mah-na mah-na". (Careful; the article contains youtube links that may or may not be NSFW)....

http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/culturebox/2011/11/_mahna_mahna_how_a_ditty_from_a_soft_core_italian_ movie_became_the_muppets_catchiest_tune_.html

El_Diablo
11-29-2011, 12:45 AM
The following people are going for 4/5 at best, because Happy Feet 2 is done.

Blue in the Face
davekay1971
El_Diablo
mph
northernduke
snowdenscold
sporthenry

http://the-american-catholic.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/polar-bears-roasting-penguin.gif

Olympic Fan
11-29-2011, 10:37 AM
Jason, check me on this, but it looks like of the movies on our survery that have been released:

Twilight is a mortal lock to make the top 5 (it's already well over $200 million).

Puss in Boots is boderline (up to $135 million ... added $7,5 million last weekend)

Muppets has a very slim chance after a $29 million opening -- it should have staying power, but it will need a lot after that opening (worst than Puss 'n Boots -- with more competition coming)

Happy Feet 2, Hugo and Arthur Christmas are all toast after just one weekend (we only had one vote for Hugo and none for Arthur Christmas)

No "Other" has emerged as a threat to make the top 5.

Still got a lot of major players to go -- from Tintin to GWTDT to Mission Impossible to Sherlock ...

JasonEvans
11-29-2011, 09:13 PM
Jason, check me on this, but it looks like of the movies on our survery that have been released:

Twilight is a mortal lock to make the top 5 (it's already well over $200 million).

Puss in Boots is boderline (up to $135 million ... added $7,5 million last weekend)

Muppets has a very slim chance after a $29 million opening -- it should have staying power, but it will need a lot after that opening (worst than Puss 'n Boots -- with more competition coming)

Happy Feet 2, Hugo and Arthur Christmas are all toast after just one weekend (we only had one vote for Hugo and none for Arthur Christmas)

No "Other" has emerged as a threat to make the top 5.

Still got a lot of major players to go -- from Tintin to GWTDT to Mission Impossible to Sherlock ...

Your assessment is pretty solid. The biggest contenders (aside from Twilight) are still to come. For example, the only one of my picks that has opened is Twilight. I've still got a shot at 5-for-5 (though not picking Puss is looking like it may be a mistake).

Other than Puss and Twilight, no films currently out would seem to have a real shot, though it will be interesting to see if Muppets can have a big second weekend. There is nothing new coming out this week, although some Oscar contenders will expand into some new theaters. But, from Muppets standpoint, there is no new family competition out there. Muppets would seem to be the kind of flick that could generate good word of mouth (it got an "A" from Cinemascore's opening weekend exit polling, which is quite good). It is even possible that Muppets will have a bigger second weekend than its opening weekend. With no other family competition until Dec 16th Chipmunk's sequel, Muppets could have a nice run here. I would not rule it out of the running for the top 5 yet.

All that said, if I had to bet, I would bet on Muppets only getting to about $120 million, at the most.

I really think it is going to come down to Tintin vs. Chipmunks vs. Puss in Boots. One of those films will be our #5 flick (Twi, SH2, MI4, and GWTDT will be top 4).

-Jason "thanks for keeping me up to date, Oly!" Evans

tommy
12-06-2011, 08:42 PM
Tell me which films are good, not which ones make box office.

OK I will.

I went to the premiere last night of New Year's Eve.

In a word, it was awful.

Nobody should be surprised by that, given the premise and the fact that it is a follow-up to Valentine's Day. IMO, New Year's Eve is even worse.

There are WAY too many plot lines, if you can even call them that, because they tried to squeeze in roles for so many stars. The stories were insipid. The "resolutions" of these stories were utterly predictable. A lot of the acting was amateurish (Jon Bon Jovi gets this much screen time? Really?) The dialogue was groan-inducing. There were a few attempts at production of tear-jerking moments which actually worked on some audience members, but they were pathetic, tired, and derivative. Worst, there was nothing funny in the entire movie. I watched this thing in a HUGE theater absolutely full of industry people who were there to support the movie, the stars, their friends and family members who made the movie, and even this crowd didn't crack a smile.

Any questions?

Well, OK, I will tell you that at the afterparty, Sofia Vergara and Katherine Heigl both looked stunning.

I flirted a little with "Katie." Made her laugh.

Olympic Fan
12-06-2011, 11:17 PM
It will be interesting to see if Muppets can have a big second weekend. There is nothing new coming out this week, although some Oscar contenders will expand into some new theaters. But, from Muppets standpoint, there is no new family competition out there. Muppets would seem to be the kind of flick that could generate good word of mouth (it got an "A" from Cinemascore's opening weekend exit polling, which is quite good). It is even possible that Muppets will have a bigger second weekend than its opening weekend. With no other family competition until Dec 16th Chipmunk's sequel, Muppets could have a nice run here. I would not rule it out of the running for the top 5 yet.

All that said, if I had to bet, I would bet on Muppets only getting to about $120 million, at the most.



The secnd weekend saw a BIG dropoff for the Muppets -- down to $11 million, a pretty typical drop (about 40 pecent off the opening week). I think $120 million is a bit optimistic ... and no way it catches Puss n Butts (right at $140, although rapidy trunning out of gas).

Still think Puss is going to be right on the border line -- either No. 5 or No. 6 when all is said or done.

Highlander
12-07-2011, 11:37 AM
The secnd weekend saw a BIG dropoff for the Muppets -- down to $11 million, a pretty typical drop (about 40 pecent off the opening week). I think $120 million is a bit optimistic ... and no way it catches Puss n Butts (right at $140, although rapidy trunning out of gas).

Still think Puss is going to be right on the border line -- either No. 5 or No. 6 when all is said or done.

Last year I went with Fockers over Megamind in the #5 slot and lost out b/c Fockers opened later and had less time to catch up. It did eventually pass Megamind, but well after the contest was ended. So this year I went with the splashy movie that had the early opening date. We'll see if I'm bitten again this year, but right now I don't see 5 movies out there that I think will really excite people over what Puss has put up so far.

If Puss ends up #6, you can pretty much assume I'm snake bit...

JasonEvans
12-07-2011, 12:11 PM
OK I will.

I went to the premiere last night of New Year's Eve.

In a word, it was awful.

Nobody should be surprised by that, given the premise and the fact that it is a follow-up to Valentine's Day. IMO, New Year's Eve is even worse.

There are WAY too many plot lines, if you can even call them that, because they tried to squeeze in roles for so many stars. The stories were insipid. The "resolutions" of these stories were utterly predictable. A lot of the acting was amateurish (Jon Bon Jovi gets this much screen time? Really?) The dialogue was groan-inducing. There were a few attempts at production of tear-jerking moments which actually worked on some audience members, but they were pathetic, tired, and derivative. Worst, there was nothing funny in the entire movie. I watched this thing in a HUGE theater absolutely full of industry people who were there to support the movie, the stars, their friends and family members who made the movie, and even this crowd didn't crack a smile.

Any questions?

Well, OK, I will tell you that at the afterparty, Sofia Vergara and Katherine Heigl both looked stunning.

I flirted a little with "Katie." Made her laugh.

I saw a screeing of NYEve last night and fully agree with the above. It is godawful. Most of the myriad of story lines are more depressing than uplifting. Aside from Sofia Vergara playing a sexy cougar, there is almost nothing funny in the movie. I thought this was supposed to be a comedy, or at least mildly funny. Michelle Pfeifer played a character that was so depressing, I thought she was going to commit suicide -- either that or pull out a gun and go postal on everyone.

There are so many stars, it is sorta off-putting. I mean, you get folks like Matthew Broderick, John Lithgow, Jim Belushi, Carey Elwes, and Alyssa Milano showing up for like 1 or 2 lines and barely in 1 or 2 scenes. I found it distracting for throw-away characters to be played by recognizable faces and it only heightened the depressing feeling of the movie to see some of the has-been actors showing up for a small payday.

Wanna know the definition of a bad movie? I can confidently say that the best thing in this film was the bloopers that ran during the credits. Yes, I am saying that the parts where the stars screwed up their lines were far, far better than the parts where they got their lines right. That is the definition of a lousy film. Please, please, please... stay away!!!

-Jason "looking for a date flick? Go see My Week With Marilyn or the amazing The Descendants instead" Evans

Olympic Fan
12-07-2011, 12:24 PM
Tell me which films are good, not which ones make box office.

If you are looking for a unique, adult, entertaining film, can I suggest 'The Artist', which has been in limited release since Nov. 25

It's not for everybody -- it's a silent, black and white film from France. But it's about Hollywood (shot in LA) and -- like Singing in the Rain -- it's about the tumult created by the coming of sound. There's also an element of 'A Star is Born' as the fading silent star falls for and nutures the extra with talent, whose career soars past him.

It's not that that story is original, but ... I can't describe what makes this film so astonishing, but I'm certain that it's going to be my No. 1 film for 2011 -- by a mile.

Check out Turian's glowing review in the LA Times. Jason, have you reviewed it?

JasonEvans
12-07-2011, 12:41 PM
Check out Turian's glowing review in the LA Times. Jason, have you reviewed it?

It is an absolute shoe-in to get multiple Oscar nominations and is probably the front-runner, alongside The Descendants, for Best Picture and Best Actor.

I had a screening the other day but could not make it because my son had a basketball game and I always choose family over other stuff. I hope to see it very soon. It has not opened in most cities yet.

-Jason "note- early front-runners tend to fade but this flick does feel quite unique" Evans

Reisen
12-08-2011, 02:18 PM
Well, OK, I will tell you that at the afterparty, Sofia Vergara and Katherine Heigl both looked stunning.

I flirted a little with "Katie." Made her laugh.

I'm jealous. Seriously. I've had a thing for Heigl ever since that movie with the French dude who played her father... (ok, I'm really tired if that's all I can come up with).

Anyway, I got invited to the afterparty for the NYC premier, but already had plans. Bummer.

JasonEvans
12-09-2011, 11:14 AM
If anyone would care to listen, here is an MP3 of my radio appearance (http://media.star94.com/Audio/CindyandRay/12/Jason%20129.mp3) this morning where I talked about how much I hated New Year's Eve. Instead, I told listeners to go see My Week With Marilyn instead.

-Jason "I am seeing Dragon Tattoo on Monday... can't wait!!!" Evans

tommy
12-12-2011, 11:29 PM
If anyone would care to listen, here is an MP3 of my radio appearance (http://media.star94.com/Audio/CindyandRay/12/Jason 129.mp3) this morning where I talked about how much I hated New Year's Eve. Instead, I told listeners to go see My Week With Marilyn instead.

-Jason "I am seeing Dragon Tattoo on Monday... can't wait!!!" Evans

So . . . it's Monday! What's the skinny?

Olympic Fan
12-19-2011, 11:25 AM
Jason, maybe you can help me out ...

I thought Mission Impossible went into general release Friday, but when I checked the box office this morning I saw that it had only made $13 million over the weekend -- an absolutely terrible debut for a big-budget action movie. It finished $10 million behind the Alvin and the Chipmunks and far less than half of Sherlock Holmes.

Then I look more closely and see that it was only in 425 theaters (both Alvin and Sherlock Holmes opened in 3700-plus theaters). It actually made more per theater than any other movie last weekend.

What was the strategy and when does it go into general realease?

Holmes had a good opener with $40 million plus. It won't catch Twilight (266.4 and still going), but so far we don't have a strong No. 2 -- Putt n' Boots is there now at $142.8 million and is almost done.

The field is open for Holmes and MI, if it can sustain strength through a more widespread opening.

The schools let out this week ... what does that do to the kiddie movies (the Muppets are up to $70.9 million, but did little last weekend ... Hugo and Arthur Christmas are pretty dead at just under $40 ... Happy Feet is stalling at just under $60 million). Will any of them get a boost from the schoolkids being out?

davekay1971
12-19-2011, 01:43 PM
My understanding is that MI4:GP opened mostly on IMAX screens, and that it was a very strong opening for that limited screenage. MI4 will have it's first full opening weekend on Christmas weekend. Given the highly positive reviews and the strong limited opening...not to mention the lack of quality competition...MI4 may end up with a very strong box office. I'm now expecting it to finish number 2 behind (gag) TeenSpiritLight Saga: Cougar Dawn. Tin Tin is the other big arrival next weekend, but it will probably have a different draw than MI4, and therefore won't likely pull much business from the big live-action crowd.

Sherlock Holmes 2 actually had a weaker opening than was hoped for. I think the first Sherlock Holmes opened to about 60 million. Not good news for a sequel that's not been much better reviewed than the original, although if it can hit that 3x multiplier than JE has talked about, that would probably put it in the top 5 for our contest's purposes.

The kiddie offerings have tanked one after another, but, hey, it goes to show that if you offer up something crappy enough, parents may actually say NO to the kiddies' request to see the newest Chipmunk/dancing penguin garbage.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3327

JasonEvans
12-19-2011, 04:31 PM
DK nailed it. MI4 opened only on IMAX screens. The IMAX surcharge probably served to nicely boost the per theater take. I also expect that the early IMAX release has served to sap some of the usual opening weekend demand, which probably will knock a bit off the first weekend take next week. But, good word of mouth may make up for that. I saw MI:4 last week and really enjoyed it.

The opening for Sherlock was really disappointing to Hollywood. The final number came in at just under $40 mil (first reported at just over $40 mil, but it looks like the Sunday actuals were worse than forecast). That's a 35% drop from the opening of Sherlock 1 two years ago, which is a bad sign for demand for this film. Still, it has gotten fairly good reviews and the word of mouth should be ok because it got a solid A- Cinemascore from folks who saw it this weekend. If Sherlock 2 continues to track 35% below what the original did 2 years ago ($209 mil), it will make $135 million. Ordinarily, such a number would come up short in our Top 5 of Winter quest... but this is a really down season and I suspect $135 will make it into the top 5.

Here are our current standings --



1. Twilight: BD pt 1 - $266 mil
2. Puss in Boots - $142 mil
3. Immortals - $81 mil
4. Tower Heist - $75.7 mil
5. Muppets - $70.9 mil



Folks who banked on Chipwrecked must be especially disappointed. It only did $23 mil. Even if it hits a very high 4x multiplier, it is looking at a total of less than $100 mill. I just can't see it making the Top 5. Heck, it probably won't be in the top 8 or 9 of the season.

We need to see how Dragon Tat and MI:4 do in wide release next week but I expect both to perform better than Sherlock 2. If I had to guess right now, I would expect the Top 5 to be:
1. Twilight
2. MI: 4
3. Dragon Tattoo
4. Puss
5. Sherlock or War Horse or Tintin

As an aside, I have seen all of these movies and would rank them (by quality) in the following order.

1. MI:4
1a. Dragon Tattoo
3. Tintin
4. Sherlock
5. War Horse
6. Puss
7. Twilight

-Jason "by the end of next weekend, we should have a muuuch better idea how this will end up" Evans

weezie
12-19-2011, 04:34 PM
Saw "My Week With Marilyn" and "The Descendants" this past weekend.
"Marilyn" is a chick flick and I can say that as a chick. Yes, yes, not a young chick, ha ha.
Plenty of lingering closeups on Michelle Williams but Kenneth Branaugh is fantastic. Kind of a snoozy story though.

"Descendants" is easily everything fantastic being said about Clooney but it is not a 'skip through the pineapple plants' Hawaiian lark.
The plot is very emotionally intense and something the viewer has to brace for in advance. There is a calm, inevitable ending but it takes some fortitude
to get there.

Looking forward to "Tattoo" and and "Iron Lady"!

Olympic Fan
12-19-2011, 04:35 PM
My understanding is that MI4:GP opened mostly on IMAX screens, and that it was a very strong opening for that limited screenage. MI4 will have it's first full opening weekend on Christmas weekend. Given the highly positive reviews and the strong limited opening...not to mention the lack of quality competition...MI4 may end up with a very strong box office. I'm now expecting it to finish number 2 behind (gag) TeenSpiritLight Saga: Cougar Dawn. Tin Tin is the other big arrival next weekend, but it will probably have a different draw than MI4, and therefore won't likely pull much business from the big live-action crowd.

Sherlock Holmes 2 actually had a weaker opening than was hoped for. I think the first Sherlock Holmes opened to about 60 million. Not good news for a sequel that's not been much better reviewed than the original, although if it can hit that 3x multiplier than JE has talked about, that would probably put it in the top 5 for our contest's purposes.

The kiddie offerings have tanked one after another, but, hey, it goes to show that if you offer up something crappy enough, parents may actually say NO to the kiddies' request to see the newest Chipmunk/dancing penguin garbage.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3327

I'm not an expert on kiddie films, but I'm interested in the apparent failure of so many ballyhooed kid films.

Almost every one out this season has underperformed/tanked. That includes those with terrible reviews - Alvin and the Chipmunks, Happy Feet -- and those with great reviews -- Hugo, the Muppets, Arthur Christmas. The closest thing to a kiddie success is the well-reviewed Puss and Boots (interesting that Tin Tin is getting exactly the same 83 percent rating at RT).

My question is, it it just bad movies or is the market changing? It seems like Christmas was always a great time to release Christmas movies. Are kid's doing other things now? Or am I just too early -- asked in my last post about the impact of schools letting out ... will we see the kiddle box office explode the next two weeks?

BTW, interesting that the one certified box office smash this Christmas season is one of the worst reviewed films out there (the Twilight movie). Not THE worse. As near as I can tell, the three worse reviewed movies of the year (in the top 50) are 3. Alvin and the Chipmunks (14 on the tomatometer), 2. New Year's Eve (7 on the tomatometer) and the No. 1 the biggest sinker of all, the Adam Sandler epic Jack and Jill (a miniscule 4 on the tomatometer).

JasonEvans
12-26-2011, 02:22 PM
Having Xmas fall on a weekend day makes calculating weekend grosses difficult and not entirely indicative of which movies were strong and weak over the weekend. No one goes to the movies on Xmas Eve, but a ton of people go on Xmas day and the 26th too. What's more, we had new movies opening at all kinds of crazy times during the past week (Dragon Tat opened on Tues, MI4 went wide on Wed, TinTin opened on Wed, We Bought a Zoo opened on Friday, War Horse opened on Sunday). It is a mess!

Still, it is worth looking at where the contenders are right now and what their prospects appear to be--

I now think MI4 is going to be the #2 movie of the season, behind Twilight. It is at more than $78 mil through Monday and seems to be generating strong word-of-mouth. There is talk it will be the most successful of all the Mission Impossible films, which would require it to make more than $215 mil.

Sherlock 2 is clearly running well behind the original, but seems to have decent word-of-mouth too because it is still a very solid #2 in theaters. It is at $90 mil through Monday and will probably be around $120 mil by the end of next weekend. It is going to be in our Top 5.

I am ready to concede that I made a bad call on Dragon Tattoo. It is at $27 mil through Monday, a performance which almost certainly means the film will struggle to make even $100 mill at the domestic boxoffice. I cannot understand why there is not more of an audience for this flick, as the reviews have been excellent and it should have a huge built-in audience among people who have read the book or at least heard of it.

Family films, War Horse, We Bought a Zoo, and Tintin are all very early in their release cycle, so it is hard to tell if any will be a big contender for our Top 5. It looks like Tintin, despite great reviews and being a massive hit overseas, is not really connecting with a US audience. Still, the next 7 days are days where kids are out of school and family films just clean up! Chipmunks will hope to benefit from this as well. We'll know more about these films in a week though they may all just divide the market and none of them will be big hits.

So, to sum up -- I think we have 3 locks for the Top 5 in Twilight, MI4, and Sherlock 2. I am thinking Puss is getting close to being a lock because everyone else is under-performing. Still too early to figure out the contenders for the 5th spot. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close played to nothing but sellouts in very limited release the past couple days. It won't expand wide for a few more weeks but it could be a contender.

-Jason "whew-- this movie season has just been a MESS so far" Evans

Olympic Fan
12-26-2011, 02:45 PM
So, to sum up -- I think we have 3 locks for the Top 5 in Twilight, MI4, and Sherlock 2. I am thinking Puss is getting close to being a lock because everyone else is under-performing. Still too early to figure out the contenders for the 5th spot. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close played to nothing but sellouts in very limited release the past couple days. It won't expand wide for a few more weeks but it could be a contender.

-Jason "whew-- this movie season has just been a MESS so far" Evans

I have never done well in these polls. I always let my own prejudice influence my vote (hence, my mistaken vote for "Cowboys and Aliens" last summer). I almost voted for the one Christmas movie I wanted to see ("Harold and Kumar III").

But for this one, I tried to be dispassionant. I hate the Twilight series and I very much disliked Sherlock Holmes and the MI series ... but I knew they would be big money-makers. I think I guessed right on Puss 'N Boots over the Muppets/Alvin/Hugo/Happy Feet. The first three were easy. Pure luck on the fourth one.

That's four out of five. Now I've got to sweat out "Tintin" I haven't seen it and I don't plan on seeing it, but it would be neat to go 5-for-5 in our poll.

Is there a prize?

JasonEvans
12-26-2011, 04:28 PM
Is there a prize?

The great admiration of all your fellow posters. Plus, I think the person who wins should post something saying they won and many of us can give them pitchfork points on that post. In your case, the points may not matter all that much, but it would be nice to be the first person to -- for example -- 10 pitchforks ;)

-Jason

El_Diablo
12-29-2011, 04:59 PM
Updated box office totals as of 12/27 (with estimated daily take for 12/27 for those films still in theaters, in order to help show current momentum):


Twilight $271,934,000 (750,000)
Puss in Boots $143,935,000
Paranormal Activity 3 $103,831,682
Sherlock Holmes $103,674,000 (7,315,000)
Mission Impossible $86,163,000 (9,613,000)
Immortals $82,196,342
The Muppets $77,839,891 (1,014,000)
Tower Heist $76,371,860 (54,000)
Jack and Jill $71,059,708
Chipmunks $63,279,892 (6,811,000)
Happy Feet Two $60,257,000 (140,000)
Hugo $44,927,000 (1,175,000)
Arthur Christmas $44,068,000 (500,000)
New Year's Eve $37,892,000 (1,660,000)
In Time $36,911,769
J. Edgar $36,254,000 (60,000)
Harold & Kumar $34,534,186
The Descendants $34,393,495 (830,000)
Dragon Tattoo $32,476,000 (4,650,000)
Tintin $27,682,000 (4,570,000)
The Sitter $23,570,380 (585,000)
War Horse $22,414,524 (4,173,000)


Based on this, I would say four of the top five are pretty much locked in at this point: Twilight, Sherlock Holmes, Mission Impossible, and Puss in Boots. I suppose it's possible that another film passes Puss in Boots, but I doubt that two will, so it's looking pretty safe now. As for the fifth movie, Paranormal Activity 3 is currently the leader at $103.8 million, but I am not sure if it is eligible as a write-in candidate (it opened in late October, around the same time as Puss in Boots). It may be a moot point, however, because Chipmunks, Dragon Tattoo, Muppets, and possibly Tintin or even War Horse could eventually surpass it. Of those five contenders, Chipmunks clearly has the strongest momentum right now, but Dragon Tatttoo probably has the best chance to maintain its legs past the holidays due to its target audience and good reviews. War Horse also has a decent chance to get some legs, but it has a long way to go at this point and doesn't have quite the same reviews, built-in audience, and overall buzz that Dragon Tattoo has. So IMO the fifth film will likely come down to Chipmunks vs. Dragon Tattoo.

I am a little surprised at the low opening week for Dragon Tattoo, but I think there are many people, like myself, who plan to see it at some point but were not beating down the door to see it right away because they've already read the book and/or seen the Swedish version. So it may take another couple weeks to see how it's really doing. It might not explode like True Grit did at this point last year, but it could chug along long enough to beat out Chipmunks.

Olympic Fan
01-02-2012, 11:18 AM
I would say four of the top five are pretty much locked in at this point: Twilight, Sherlock Holmes, Mission Impossible, and Puss in Boots. I suppose it's possible that another film passes Puss in Boots, but I doubt that two will, so it's looking pretty safe now. As for the fifth movie, Paranormal Activity 3 is currently the leader at $103.8 million, but I am not sure if it is eligible as a write-in candidate (it opened in late October, around the same time as Puss in Boots). It may be a moot point, however, because Chipmunks, Dragon Tattoo, Muppets, and possibly Tintin or even War Horse could eventually surpass it. Of those five contenders, Chipmunks clearly has the strongest momentum right now, but Dragon Tatttoo probably has the best chance to maintain its legs past the holidays due to its target audience and good reviews. War Horse also has a decent chance to get some legs, but it has a long way to go at this point and doesn't have quite the same reviews, built-in audience, and overall buzz that Dragon Tattoo has. So IMO the fifth film will likely come down to Chipmunks vs. Dragon Tattoo.

I am a little surprised at the low opening week for Dragon Tattoo, but I think there are many people, like myself, who plan to see it at some point but were not beating down the door to see it right away because they've already read the book and/or seen the Swedish version. So it may take another couple weeks to see how it's really doing. It might not explode like True Grit did at this point last year, but it could chug along long enough to beat out Chipmunks.

It's looking more and more like Chipmunks is going to take the fifth spot. Last weekend, Alvin and his buddies did another $18.2 million -- more in its third week than Dragon Tattoo did in its second. With $94.6 million so far, Chipmunks is just $10 million behind Paranormal 3, which is dead (and is it eligible anyway?).

This is all bad news for me ... I had Tintin, but even with $10 million last weekend, it's going to come up well short. So I gues I have to settle for four out of five (which is still a lot better than I usually do).

JasonEvans
01-02-2012, 11:46 AM
Here's the one thing I will say about Chipmunks, the audience will really dry up in the next couple days as kids go back to school and adults go back to work (and have no interest in entertaining the little kiddies). January is traditionally a good month for adult dramas, not kid flicks. I am not sure Chipmunks will get there. I think it gets to about $125-130 mil.

Meanwhile, there now appears to be little question that MI4 will be the #2 movie of the season (it is at $141 mil and was #1 at boxoff over the weekend) while Sherlock seems a lock to be #3 (it is as $136 mil and was #2 at boxoff).

I think Dragon Tattoo will only get to about $100 or maybe $110 mil unless it scores a few Oscar noms, including a Best Picture nom, to give it a boost. I was dead wrong about the market for that film.

Unless something strange happens, Tintin, We Bought a Zoo, and War Horse are all gonna come up short too. I guess it is possible that Chipmunks does get the #5 spot in our contest with only about $130 mil in boxoffice. I cannot see any other real contenders at this time.

--Jason "It has been a really bad season for Hollywood" Evans

Jim3k
01-06-2012, 10:24 PM
Is Hugo starting to get legs as word of mouth begins to have an impact? When I saw Hugo a few days ago, at a matinee, the theater was pretty full, though I concede that it was a multiplex theater which wasn't all that large. Even so, the audience buzz as we left was very favorable.

Olympic Fan
01-07-2012, 01:36 AM
Is Hugo starting to get legs as word of mouth begins to have an impact? When I saw Hugo a few days ago, at a matinee, the theater was pretty full, though I concede that it was a multiplex theater which wasn't all that large. Even so, the audience buzz as we left was very favorable.

Hugo made a pitiful $2.5 million in its seventh week of release. It's total is still under $50 million.

We won't know the new figures until Monday, but it would be a box office miracle if it suddenly found an audience.

Olympic Fan
01-10-2012, 06:45 PM
I'm not sure what the cutoff of this contest is, but it looks to be all bit over.

No surge for Hugo (1.6 million last week ... now at 52.6 million, well off the pace). Mission Impossible (169.6) and Sherlock Holmes (157.) have locked up second and third place behind Twilight (the only $200 million plus movie of the season). Puss n' Boots seems safe at No. 4 at 146.6 million.

The only question is whether the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (76.9) can catch Alvin and the Chipmunks (111.6). I doubt it -- it's a pretty big gap and Tattoo Girl barely edged Alvin in last week's boxoffice (11.4 million to 9.5 million).

I got the first four, but looks like my No. 5 pick -- Tintin -- is out of it.

Apparently, nobody got all fve (assuming Chipmonks remains No. 5), so a bunch of us tied at 4 out of 5 ... I'll take it. It's the best I've ever done in this poll.

BTW: Did anybody notice th humongous frst weekend for The Devil Inside? It cost Paramont $1 million, they put little traditional advertising money in it (apparently a lot of internet stuff) and grossed $33.7 million the first week ... and that's with a 6 percent rating on RT (the secondworst of the winter ... on Jack and Jill was lower). It's the third biggest January opening in history.

JasonEvans
01-10-2012, 11:18 PM
It would be patently unfair for us to end this contest before the end of January. We need to give the Xmas films time for a real run at the Top 5 and we need to see the impact of Oscar nominations on some of the contenders. Yes, the contest looks over, but something insane could happen.

Dragon Tattoo has shown strong staying power the past week or so and has gotten a slew of award nominations from the Acting/Writing/Directing/Producing guilds. That means it is all but a lock to get an Oscar Best Picture nomination too. I don't think it can top Chipsucks, but it may come close and we should give it time to try.

-Jason "it was a lousy season at the boxoffice-- $120 million for 5th place in our contest is horrid" Evans

weezie
01-13-2012, 10:03 PM
I was riveted, although it's pretty involved. Gary Oldman is mesmerizing. Good old school, non-Iphone, no computers spycraft.
Terrific acting. Will go see it again.

Udaman
01-17-2012, 02:48 PM
It's just about time to call this. Chipmunks is currently $31M ahead of Girl with the Dragon Tatoo, and it's highly unlikely that the latter will catch the former (especially after getting shut out of the Golden Globes). It is possible an Oscar bid for Best Picture could help it...but unlikely. Still, we'll leave this open until Monday, January 30th.

But it's highly likely that the top 5 will be

Twilight
MIP 4
Sherlock Holmes
Puss N Boots
Chipmunks

That would mean nobody went 5 for 5, but lots went 4 for 5. I'm mad that I let Jason Evans talk me into putting in Dragon Tatoo, and not MI 4 (curse you!)....but even if I had, I would not have made 5 for 5. I didn't think Puss N Boots would be there (I had the Muppets).

JasonEvans
01-30-2012, 10:04 PM
It is over.


Breaking Dawn - $280,536,000
MI4: Ghost Pro - $202,565,000
Sherlock 2 - $182,211,000
Puss in Boots - $148,139,000
Chipwrecked - $127,041,000



That is the top 5. Anybody go 5-for-5?

The also-rans:
6. Dragon Tat - $98,185,000
7. Muppets - $87,314,000
8. Immmortals - $83,396,000
9. Tower Heist - $78,009,000
10. War Horse - $75,618,000
11. Tintin - $74,268,000
12. Jack & Jill - $73,350,000

It was a pathetic movie season. For film #6 to be at less than $100 mil (though Dragon Tat will break through $100 mil in the next week or so), for the #5 film to be at only $127 mil... just sad. A much worse performance than recent years.

So, we go on sabbatical now. No reason to do a top movies of spring as the pickings are pathetic and everyone would just pick The Hunger Games. We will start up again in mid-late April with the Summer poll closing on May 1st with the debut of Avengers. In addition to Avengers, the other films likely to be included in the summer list are: MIB3, Madagascar 3, Prometheus, Rock of Ages, Jack the Giant Killer, Brave, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, GI Joe: Retaliation, Amazing Spider-Man, Ted, Ice Age: Continental Drift, The Bourne Legacy, Total Recall, and something called Dark Knight Rises.

As always, it was fun...

--Jason "...even if I only went 3 for 5... ugh!" Evans

Olympic Fan
01-31-2012, 01:08 AM
Well, I got 1, 2, 3, 4 ... and 11.

Not a winner, but the best I ever did.

snowdenscold
01-31-2012, 01:59 AM
Bah, I always do poor on these things... 3/5 was good for me this season.

But at least I was close - 1,3,5,6,7.

brevity
01-31-2012, 03:13 AM
Well, I got 1, 2, 3, 4 ... and 11.

Not a winner, but the best I ever did.

I got 1, 3, 4, 5, 6. But I'm not convinced I did that much better than Olympic Fan (and by a few measures, I think I did worse).

Maybe if someone picked the top 4 and picked a 5th film that finished better than 11th...

JasonEvans
01-31-2012, 08:31 AM
I got 1, 3, 4, 5, 6. But I'm not convinced I did that much better than Olympic Fan (and by a few measures, I think I did worse).

Maybe if someone picked the top 4 and picked a 5th film that finished better than 11th...

Yeah, missing #2 is pretty bad form. How did you not bet on Brad Bird?!?!

I got 1, 2, 3, 6, and 11. What was I thinking voting for Tintin!??!

-Jason "it was a tough season -- I would have bet anything that Drag Tat would do more than $125 mil" Evans

Tommac
01-31-2012, 10:43 AM
I didn't do too bad with 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6.

JasonEvans
01-31-2012, 10:56 AM
I didn't do too bad with 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6.

We have a winner!

Highlander
01-31-2012, 03:41 PM
I didn't do too bad with 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6.

Same here. Twice in a row after just missing on Megamind last winter...

brevity
02-02-2012, 02:23 PM
Yeah, missing #2 is pretty bad form. How did you not bet on Brad Bird?!?!

It was more about betting against Tom Cruise, which made sense at the time. Ever the good sport, once the movie came out, I contributed to its box office myself.

Whoever got 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 is clearly the winner(s). Maybe I'll do better this summer. Maybe not.

davekay1971
02-03-2012, 08:17 AM
Strong work, Tommac. I got 1,2,3,4, and wherever Happy Feet 2 ended. I bet on the wrong crappy kids sequel, going with cute dancing enviro-penguins instead of the mind-numbingly dull disease carrying rodents. Alas, to me it was kind of coin toss between two different pieces of garbage, but it turned out picking HF2 to end in the top 5 was the movie-picking equivalent of picking Wake to win the ACC

JasonEvans
02-03-2012, 09:59 AM
Strong work, Tommac. I got 1,2,3,4, and wherever Happy Feet 2 ended.

It finished 16th among all movies released in the 4th quarter. It is currently $3 mil above The Descendants which will probably pass it with the Academy Award buzz around it. It is $4 mil ahead of Hugo which has a lesser chance to pass it. So, Happy Feet 2 will likely end up 17th or, maybe, 18th.

-Jason "getting #1-4 was impressive, no shame there" Evans

Highlander
02-03-2012, 10:21 AM
It finished 16th among all movies released in the 4th quarter. It is currently $3 mil above The Descendants which will probably pass it with the Academy Award buzz around it. It is $4 mil ahead of Hugo which has a lesser chance to pass it. So, Happy Feet 2 will likely end up 17th or, maybe, 18th.

-Jason "getting #1-4 was impressive, no shame there" Evans

Went through the #s and saw the following:
People who got 4 out of top 6 correct- Tommac, Highlander, dukeblue1206
People who also got 4 out of 5 correct, but not 4 out of top 6 - Brevity, DevilBen, DaveKay1071

Other interesting stats:
* DevilBen apparently had a perfect scorecard, but he only picked 4 movies instead of 5.
* Brevity was the only person to get 4 out of 5, with one of the 4 being Chipwrecked.

DevilBen02
02-03-2012, 11:34 AM
Went through the #s and saw the following:
People who got 4 out of top 6 correct- Tommac, Highlander, dukeblue1206
People who also got 4 out of 5 correct, but not 4 out of top 6 - Brevity, DevilBen, DaveKay1071

Other interesting stats:
* DevilBen apparently had a perfect scorecard, but he only picked 4 movies instead of 5.
* Brevity was the only person to get 4 out of 5, with one of the 4 being Chipwrecked.

I did pick a 5th, but it was the Muppets. So, I finished with numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7.

Highlander
02-10-2012, 08:59 AM
I did pick a 5th, but it was the Muppets. So, I finished with numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7.

Ah, so you did. My bad.